WEBVTT - Bitcoin Hits $100,000 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:08.240 --> 0:00:12.119 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:00:12.200 --> 0:00:14.960 weekdays at ten am Easter on Apple, card Playing and 0:00:15.040 --> 0:00:17.919 Broyd Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand 0:00:17.960 --> 0:00:22.280 wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:24.800 Malex del alongside Paul Sweeney. 0:00:24.840 --> 0:00:26.239 This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. 0:00:26.280 --> 0:00:28.280 We bring you all the top news and business, economics 0:00:28.280 --> 0:00:30.600 and finance. There are a lens of Bloomberg Intelligence folks. 0:00:30.640 --> 0:00:32.920 They cover two thousand companies and one hundred and thirty 0:00:32.920 --> 0:00:35.879 industries all around the world. So, in case you didn't know, 0:00:36.360 --> 0:00:40.840 bitcoins now up over one hundred thousand dollars. This comes 0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:44.479 a day after President Trump picked a pro crypto pick 0:00:44.760 --> 0:00:46.080 for the SEC. 0:00:46.800 --> 0:00:49.760 That was a hard thing to say. Pro pro crypto pick. Yeah, 0:00:49.840 --> 0:00:51.880 try to be that fast. More so than Gary Gensler, 0:00:51.920 --> 0:00:54.800 I guess much more so. This is Paul Atkins. 0:00:54.840 --> 0:00:58.040 Apparently he is a crypto proponent, but also very much 0:00:58.040 --> 0:00:58.560 in favor of. 0:00:58.600 --> 0:01:01.600 Less regulation et cetera. Broadly, Yes, I'm. 0:01:01.800 --> 0:01:05.320 In an upgrade on the Newark closing. Oh okay, okay, 0:01:05.400 --> 0:01:08.160 just real quick, the FAA says Newark Airport closed to 0:01:08.959 --> 0:01:12.959 general aviation aircraft, so not commercial, not the big jets, 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:16.520 the smaller planes. That's the rinking planes that I flowed. 0:01:16.520 --> 0:01:18.640 That's what That's why we have titoborough going too there 0:01:18.680 --> 0:01:20.520 for their ranking, the smaller private craft. 0:01:20.640 --> 0:01:22.479 Right, Okay, Okay, well I'm glad. I'm gonna be sure. 0:01:22.440 --> 0:01:24.560 About to find them Marshtown. 0:01:24.880 --> 0:01:25.360 Okay. 0:01:25.520 --> 0:01:28.520 So we bring you weather updates and air updates as 0:01:28.600 --> 0:01:31.000 well as talking to our Bloomberg Intelligence guys, and for 0:01:31.120 --> 0:01:33.800 that we have go to Michael mcgloan. He is Bloomberg 0:01:33.840 --> 0:01:36.440 Intelligence senior commodity strategist and he's in Florida, so he 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:39.920 doesn't have any win weather issues right now. All right, Mike, 0:01:39.920 --> 0:01:41.319 I know a lot of hayes being made about one 0:01:41.360 --> 0:01:42.960 hundred thousand dollars, does it? 0:01:43.280 --> 0:01:45.560 Do we need to retrace here though at some point. 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:51.160 That seems a bit elusive at the moment, Alex, it's 0:01:51.200 --> 0:01:54.880 it's it's fouled the money. It's been since this year started, 0:01:54.920 --> 0:01:58.640 about thirty two billion dollars of ETF inflows. Since President 0:01:58.680 --> 0:02:01.920 Trump was elected, about eight billion dollars of ETF inflows. 0:02:01.960 --> 0:02:04.440 And to put that in context, there's been on the 0:02:04.560 --> 0:02:08.600 year about almost six billion dollars of outflows in gold 0:02:08.639 --> 0:02:11.200 ETF Now they've picked up recently, but yeah, so me 0:02:11.280 --> 0:02:13.840 to me, that's from a commander standpoint, this is what's happening, 0:02:13.960 --> 0:02:16.240 I think is one hundred thousand. It's pretty good resistance. 0:02:16.280 --> 0:02:18.960 It's a milestone. I think it really brings into the forefront. 0:02:19.360 --> 0:02:24.359 But it's also showing the major paradigm shift. Of holding 0:02:24.520 --> 0:02:27.280 gold without bitcoin in that space is just for miss. 0:02:27.320 --> 0:02:29.240 You have to have some bitcoin in there or your 0:02:29.280 --> 0:02:31.920 miss risk of missing out. So to the key thing 0:02:31.919 --> 0:02:34.919 I've been watching today is the ounces of gold per 0:02:34.919 --> 0:02:37.040 one bitcoin may a new high up to thirty nine. 0:02:37.200 --> 0:02:38.560 Right now it's about thirty eight. 0:02:39.000 --> 0:02:42.320 And questions what stops that trajectory from going higher? 0:02:43.200 --> 0:02:45.639 Mike, give us a sense of how you think it 0:02:45.720 --> 0:02:48.680 might be reasonable to try to value a commodity or 0:02:48.720 --> 0:02:51.600 a currency like bitcoin. Do I look at a relative 0:02:51.639 --> 0:02:55.120 to I don't know, pork bellies or gold? 0:02:55.320 --> 0:02:56.880 Laughing at you right now, yeah what do I do? 0:02:58.560 --> 0:02:58.720 Paul? 0:02:58.760 --> 0:03:01.600 I enjoyed the question bit snickering because it's like, right now, 0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:03.000 it's animal spirits. 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:04.520 It's it's the way I always look at. 0:03:04.520 --> 0:03:07.080 Commandis supplying demand. Now that's one thing about bitcoin has 0:03:07.160 --> 0:03:10.960 definable diminishing supply. Basically on the mount you can only 0:03:11.240 --> 0:03:13.840 mine a day is four hundred and fifty bitcoins, and 0:03:13.880 --> 0:03:15.639 that's going to cut and be cut in half in 0:03:15.680 --> 0:03:17.720 twenty twenty eight. And it's just the way it's set up. 0:03:17.880 --> 0:03:20.959 And there's increasing demand and adoption, so price must go 0:03:21.120 --> 0:03:23.760 all over time, and it's just going to have these nuances. 0:03:23.760 --> 0:03:26.880 But right now it's about the major shift in this 0:03:26.919 --> 0:03:30.320 country from being really pushing against cryptos, as we saw 0:03:30.400 --> 0:03:34.160 with Gary Gensler, now shifting over to a whole government 0:03:34.200 --> 0:03:37.520 that's so much positive cryptos, and you see things like 0:03:38.840 --> 0:03:41.320 the potential for us to be in the USA if 0:03:41.360 --> 0:03:44.000 you actually sell gold and buy bitcoin, which I think 0:03:44.080 --> 0:03:46.920 is a bit wild, but that was a bloomberg story 0:03:46.920 --> 0:03:48.880 that really hit this tape. The tape this weekend. So 0:03:50.120 --> 0:03:53.360 and then quotes from Chairman Powell pointing out that it's 0:03:53.400 --> 0:03:55.640 digital gold, and even from President Putin, there's nothing that 0:03:55.760 --> 0:03:57.920 can really stop it. 0:03:57.120 --> 0:03:58.920 It's it's the animal. 0:03:58.720 --> 0:04:01.160 Spirits right now. But it's the key thing I'm worried 0:04:01.160 --> 0:04:04.080 about is now that we have it into the mainstream 0:04:04.120 --> 0:04:06.640 and all the ETF people are buying and adding to 0:04:06.760 --> 0:04:09.600 the portfolio. We still haven't seen the big test of 0:04:09.680 --> 0:04:13.520 how bitcoin responds after President and Trump has been elected, 0:04:13.560 --> 0:04:15.320 when the stock market goes down, and you know at 0:04:15.320 --> 0:04:17.640 some point it will, and it hasn't been through that 0:04:17.640 --> 0:04:19.000 so right now, I think what you're seeing is a 0:04:19.000 --> 0:04:20.559 lot of people are adding it so that they're getting 0:04:20.600 --> 0:04:23.599 off zero, but it's still a highly speculus digital asset 0:04:23.640 --> 0:04:26.599 basically trains about three times voltuli of the S and 0:04:26.600 --> 0:04:27.719 P five hundred and goal. 0:04:28.080 --> 0:04:28.880 Oh wow, I. 0:04:28.800 --> 0:04:31.800 Did not know that stat when we when we had 0:04:31.800 --> 0:04:34.760 the optimism from Paul Atkins now being the nominee. 0:04:34.279 --> 0:04:39.000 For SEC, What regulation what? 0:04:39.000 --> 0:04:40.960 What do you think the crypto guys were so pumped 0:04:41.000 --> 0:04:43.799 about and that it was him versus a Gary Gens 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:45.719 or like what kind of regulation there needs to be 0:04:45.839 --> 0:04:47.040 rolled back or needs to happen? 0:04:47.080 --> 0:04:48.680 In general, I. 0:04:48.640 --> 0:04:52.160 Think it's the the stop of the pushback. There was 0:04:52.279 --> 0:04:56.560 significant pushback. Let look how I mean the crypto people 0:04:56.560 --> 0:04:58.800 had to go to court to get ETF's launched and 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:00.839 these things have been in it works for a decade. 0:05:00.839 --> 0:05:02.200 It was just kind of silly. I mean, those of 0:05:02.279 --> 0:05:05.080 us who trade commodity ETFs so forever, so they're very 0:05:05.200 --> 0:05:07.279 much more risky than a bitcoining death. So it was 0:05:07.320 --> 0:05:10.560 just silly. Some of the extreme relation that pushed against it. 0:05:10.600 --> 0:05:13.040 In the bottom line that always really kind of flummecks 0:05:13.080 --> 0:05:16.680 me was this space adopted the dollar as its space layer. 0:05:16.680 --> 0:05:18.000 And that's one thing I always say, well, if you're 0:05:18.000 --> 0:05:19.839 an American, why would you push back on that? And 0:05:19.839 --> 0:05:22.279 I think that's what's happened. We've had no Zeldt like 0:05:22.279 --> 0:05:25.640 a convert, mister Trump shifting over to being much more 0:05:25.640 --> 0:05:27.120 of a convert. And the key thing I like to 0:05:27.160 --> 0:05:30.120 point out is today, you know, we're all talking about bitcoin, 0:05:30.200 --> 0:05:32.440 but if you look at the trading volume and crypto's 0:05:32.600 --> 0:05:35.920 tether the dollar, the dollar token is trading almost three 0:05:36.000 --> 0:05:38.680 times the volume of bitcoin, and it's market cap is 0:05:38.680 --> 0:05:40.840 about one hundred and thirty billion. I remember first talking 0:05:40.880 --> 0:05:43.480 about in twenty eighteen. There's only two billion. It's just 0:05:43.520 --> 0:05:46.599 the technology is overwhelming, and it's really favorable for the 0:05:46.720 --> 0:05:47.800 US and for the dollar. 0:05:48.480 --> 0:05:51.000 All right, Mike, always good stuff chatting with you. Mike mcglowan, 0:05:51.040 --> 0:05:53.520 Senior commodity strategist. We'll talk port bellies next time. 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:54.240 He's there. 0:05:54.279 --> 0:05:57.400 With Bloomberg Intelligence based down in Miami, I went to 0:05:57.440 --> 0:06:00.480 talking about oil because I'm watching the TV series Land Now. 0:06:00.520 --> 0:06:01.760 It's all the oil and history. 0:06:01.920 --> 0:06:04.159 How is it awesome? And I'm learning all about the 0:06:04.160 --> 0:06:05.160 oil and gas business. 0:06:06.680 --> 0:06:10.559 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:06:10.640 --> 0:06:13.680 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, card Play and 0:06:13.680 --> 0:06:16.960 Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen 0:06:17.080 --> 0:06:20.160 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station 0:06:20.560 --> 0:06:23.320 Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:06:24.440 --> 0:06:26.560 The top TiO political news of the last twenty four 0:06:26.560 --> 0:06:29.600 hours is what's happening over in France. We are still 0:06:29.640 --> 0:06:32.920 looking for President Emmanuel Macron to speak later on this afternoon. 0:06:32.920 --> 0:06:34.800 We're all waiting to see who he'll nominate as his 0:06:34.839 --> 0:06:39.039 next our premiere. They're facing a political crisis over in France, 0:06:39.080 --> 0:06:41.240 if you remember, the government lost a no confidence vote 0:06:41.240 --> 0:06:44.400 in parliament. In an exclusive interview at Bloomberg's, Francine Lachwa 0:06:44.480 --> 0:06:47.040 Marine La Penn, leader of the National Rally the far Right, 0:06:47.480 --> 0:06:51.000 discussed whether President Emmanuel Macross should resign. She said it 0:06:51.040 --> 0:06:55.600 was a personal decision. Led di Mission in Prison Live. 0:06:55.880 --> 0:06:57.919 What I said was that the president's resignation is a 0:06:57.960 --> 0:07:01.000 personal decision for him and can only take in my view, 0:07:01.040 --> 0:07:04.120 when a political crisis happens or an institutional crisis, can 0:07:04.200 --> 0:07:06.640 no longer have any other solution than the resignation of 0:07:06.680 --> 0:07:09.440 the President of the Republic. What I do wish, on 0:07:09.480 --> 0:07:11.520 the other hand, because for sure there will be new 0:07:11.600 --> 0:07:14.320 legislative elections in the next few months, is that we 0:07:14.360 --> 0:07:16.760 work on a voting system by then that enables us 0:07:16.760 --> 0:07:19.520 to have a real majority, whatever that majority may be. 0:07:20.320 --> 0:07:22.800 But the country needs a majority. It can't live for 0:07:22.880 --> 0:07:25.280 months and the years with three blocks, which in reality 0:07:25.320 --> 0:07:26.440 can't implement a policy. 0:07:28.200 --> 0:07:28.560 All right. 0:07:28.560 --> 0:07:31.239 That was marine A lepen, a, leader of the National 0:07:31.360 --> 0:07:34.760 Rally Party of France along with Bloomberg's front Sine Lacroix. 0:07:35.040 --> 0:07:38.160 Let's got the latest reporting from the French political situation. 0:07:38.200 --> 0:07:41.680 Phil Serafino joints a senior markets editor for Bloomberg News. 0:07:41.840 --> 0:07:43.720 He is in France, Phil, can you give us the 0:07:43.760 --> 0:07:48.280 latest reporting? What are the next steps here for French politics? 0:07:48.960 --> 0:07:52.440 Well, as you mentioned, Macron is speaking on French TV 0:07:52.920 --> 0:07:57.000 tonight Paris time, and the expectation is that, you know, 0:07:57.120 --> 0:07:59.200 by rights, he should be naming a new prime minister 0:07:59.760 --> 0:08:02.720 because because it's not good to have a caretaker government. 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:06.560 The other existing Prime minister, Michelle Barnier handled in his 0:08:06.680 --> 0:08:09.960 resignation today after the no confidence vote. It's not clear 0:08:10.040 --> 0:08:11.920 though that in fact he will have a name ready 0:08:11.960 --> 0:08:14.120 to go tonight. It took him a couple of months 0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:15.840 over the summer to come up with the name of 0:08:15.880 --> 0:08:18.920 Michelle Barnier because he's trying to deal with a very 0:08:18.960 --> 0:08:23.760 divided parliament, as you mentioned. So he's speaking tonight. Whether 0:08:23.800 --> 0:08:25.440 he will have the name of a prime minister, we 0:08:25.480 --> 0:08:27.200 do not know yet, but that's the thing people are 0:08:27.200 --> 0:08:29.520 waiting for. Can he find someone who can bridge the 0:08:30.200 --> 0:08:32.200 political divide in parliament? 0:08:32.280 --> 0:08:34.680 So when Marie Lampenn comes out and says, I don't 0:08:34.679 --> 0:08:36.920 think you should resign, it's up to him, And then 0:08:37.040 --> 0:08:39.120 Matcross says he has no intention of stepping down. 0:08:39.480 --> 0:08:40.960 Are people asking him to do that? 0:08:41.080 --> 0:08:41.160 Like? 0:08:41.240 --> 0:08:42.880 Is that now in the zeitgeist? 0:08:43.120 --> 0:08:45.400 Yeah, there has been much talk of that. It's been 0:08:45.480 --> 0:08:50.400 kicking around for a few months since his party lost 0:08:50.440 --> 0:08:53.120 badly in the European elections and then in the following 0:08:53.160 --> 0:08:56.160 French parliamentary elections. That has been kicking around and he's 0:08:56.320 --> 0:08:58.199 said he's not going to do that. His term runs 0:08:58.200 --> 0:09:00.600 through twenty twenty seven. You get two five your terms 0:09:00.600 --> 0:09:03.840 in France, he wants to serve out his second term, 0:09:05.120 --> 0:09:08.080 so and it seems like a little bit of an 0:09:08.120 --> 0:09:10.360 olive branch on her part to say she's not pushing 0:09:10.400 --> 0:09:13.800 for that now there's still remains, there's there's a very 0:09:13.800 --> 0:09:16.520 difficult situation politically to get a budget passed and get 0:09:16.559 --> 0:09:17.320 it through parliament. 0:09:17.360 --> 0:09:18.120 So we'll see. 0:09:18.280 --> 0:09:20.360 Boy, I'm not sure i'd want to be prime minister 0:09:20.440 --> 0:09:23.720 there because as I understand the kidding, as I understand, 0:09:23.760 --> 0:09:25.840 it's almost like a no win situation here with the 0:09:25.960 --> 0:09:29.120 right and the left seemingly having some level of you know, 0:09:29.559 --> 0:09:33.320 being united here. Is there any room to govern here? 0:09:34.320 --> 0:09:37.280 Well, it seems like it's a very difficult needle to 0:09:37.360 --> 0:09:42.160 thread because the far right and the far left, you know, 0:09:42.720 --> 0:09:45.000 both have demands that Macron does not want to meet. 0:09:45.559 --> 0:09:47.400 He particularly does not want to deal with the far 0:09:47.480 --> 0:09:52.000 left party, which sort of dominates this three party coalition 0:09:52.040 --> 0:09:55.480 of left wing of left wing parties. So he's trying 0:09:55.480 --> 0:09:57.840 to come up with a sort of centrist approach to 0:09:57.880 --> 0:10:00.920 the budget. But they just tried that. They came up 0:10:00.920 --> 0:10:04.320 with what they thought was a compromise and it got rejected. 0:10:04.400 --> 0:10:07.000 So hard to see I mean, the math doesn't change 0:10:07.000 --> 0:10:09.400 in parliament just because the prime minister has stepped down. 0:10:09.600 --> 0:10:11.079 He still needs to come up with the budget that 0:10:11.120 --> 0:10:14.000 he can get a majority vote for, and unclear how 0:10:14.000 --> 0:10:14.720 that's going to happen. 0:10:14.880 --> 0:10:17.720 Okay, so on that here in the US, if you 0:10:17.760 --> 0:10:20.680 can't approve a budget or an extension, the government shuts down. 0:10:21.120 --> 0:10:22.200 What happens in France. 0:10:23.600 --> 0:10:26.240 I think they can do sort of an emergency budget. 0:10:26.600 --> 0:10:30.480 The problem is there are EU rules on the budget 0:10:30.480 --> 0:10:33.400 deficit and France has far exceeded those, and France has 0:10:33.400 --> 0:10:35.439 made pledges to the European Union that they will get 0:10:35.440 --> 0:10:38.800 that deficit under control with an emergency budget. I don't 0:10:38.840 --> 0:10:40.680 know that that does what they need to do as 0:10:40.720 --> 0:10:45.240 far as cutting spending and possibly raising taxes, And that's 0:10:45.280 --> 0:10:48.080 the sticking point. You know that the budget needs to 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:50.760 cut spending and raise taxes. They're going to raise taxes 0:10:50.760 --> 0:10:54.520 on companies and the wealthy. Marie Lapenn today was saying, 0:10:55.559 --> 0:10:57.000 we're not going to do We're not going to go 0:10:57.040 --> 0:10:58.439 as far as you want it to go. We'll let 0:10:58.440 --> 0:11:01.439 the budget deficit run a little a little wider than 0:11:01.440 --> 0:11:05.040 we otherwise would. So I think in short term they 0:11:05.040 --> 0:11:07.440 can sort of paper things over. It's the medium term 0:11:07.440 --> 0:11:09.359 and the long term where they have a real problem. 0:11:09.880 --> 0:11:11.440 All right, Phil, thank you so much for joining us. 0:11:11.440 --> 0:11:15.120 Really appreciate it. Phil Sarafino, Senior market seditor for Bloomberg News. 0:11:15.120 --> 0:11:17.720 He is located in our Paris bureau. 0:11:17.800 --> 0:11:18.000 Here. 0:11:18.080 --> 0:11:22.240 Again, we'll hear from French President Macron at two pm 0:11:22.480 --> 0:11:26.840 Wall Street time eight pm Paris local time, and we'll 0:11:26.880 --> 0:11:29.040 see what he has to say about this government. Well, 0:11:29.120 --> 0:11:32.400 will he have a new prime minister to offer. 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:33.240 I think it was. 0:11:33.200 --> 0:11:35.839 Carolyn Kannan yesterday who was talking to us about the 0:11:35.840 --> 0:11:37.800 fact that Marie La Penn doesn't actually want to be 0:11:37.880 --> 0:11:39.800 seen as an agent of chaos, like. 0:11:39.840 --> 0:11:41.520 That's not part of her goal. 0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:44.960 So that is also quite interesting in terms of how 0:11:44.960 --> 0:11:48.360 they will negotiate who will become the next premiere at 0:11:48.400 --> 0:11:50.720 the end of the day. I've also read some articles 0:11:50.720 --> 0:11:53.520 that look, Macross should give an Olive brand. 0:11:53.360 --> 0:11:56.920 To say the right, etc. More than centrist right. So 0:11:57.160 --> 0:11:59.200 it's gonna it's gonna be really quite complicated. 0:12:00.600 --> 0:12:04.480 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 0:12:04.559 --> 0:12:07.320 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Playing and 0:12:07.400 --> 0:12:10.280 Broyd Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand 0:12:10.320 --> 0:12:14.640 wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:12:15.320 --> 0:12:17.480 Alex Steel here alongside Paul Sweeney and John Tucker. This 0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:20.520 is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. We are currently broadcasting to live 0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:23.480 from Interactive Broker Studio right here in Midtown Manhattan. 0:12:23.559 --> 0:12:25.760 Also check us out on YouTube as well. 0:12:26.000 --> 0:12:28.079 So for the markets, we hit the fifty six record 0:12:28.120 --> 0:12:30.920 high of the year. Market's going nowhere fast today. So 0:12:31.120 --> 0:12:33.400 what happens then if we get the Santa Claus Rally? 0:12:33.440 --> 0:12:36.280 What happens after? In twenty twenty five, Carol Pepper, founder 0:12:36.320 --> 0:12:39.480 and CEO at Pepper International, joins us. Now, Carol, that 0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:41.760 was a great survey that came out today that talked 0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:45.240 about our CEO confidence is smashing it. After the election, 0:12:45.679 --> 0:12:49.280 CEOs feel so much more confident about the economy, etc. 0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:50.720 Does this last? 0:12:50.800 --> 0:12:54.280 And is that optimism reflected inequities and should be? 0:12:55.200 --> 0:12:55.440 Yeah? 0:12:55.520 --> 0:12:58.200 I think they're confident for good reasons. 0:12:58.240 --> 0:12:59.920 I think first of all, the fact that we have 0:13:00.160 --> 0:13:02.400 peaceful election and there's not going to be any other 0:13:02.920 --> 0:13:05.640 problems in January is making everybody very happy. 0:13:06.080 --> 0:13:08.680 The new team is organizing, getting itself together. 0:13:08.720 --> 0:13:13.000 There are checks and balances with the minority Democrats and 0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:16.840 some of the other Republicans. So the political situation here 0:13:16.920 --> 0:13:18.160 has become very calm. 0:13:18.240 --> 0:13:22.760 That makes people very happy. There's also a commitment to 0:13:23.200 --> 0:13:24.559 keeping regulation. 0:13:24.200 --> 0:13:27.440 Low, not adding additional burdens on companies, so CEOs are 0:13:27.600 --> 0:13:30.400 justified being happy. And on top of that, the economy 0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:33.679 is humming along, inflation is under control. If you were 0:13:33.720 --> 0:13:36.120 a CEO, what more could you ask for other than 0:13:36.160 --> 0:13:38.079 a big bonus at Christmas, which a lot of them 0:13:38.080 --> 0:13:40.439 are because they had a great year this year. 0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:43.600 So what are some of the areas when you talk 0:13:43.679 --> 0:13:47.720 to your clients, your private clients here, what are some 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:51.320 of the themes that you're bringing to bear on twenty 0:13:51.360 --> 0:13:51.840 twenty five. 0:13:52.559 --> 0:13:55.520 Yeah, Well, as you know, I run money for family 0:13:55.559 --> 0:13:58.920 offices with over one hundred million dollars and basically we 0:13:59.000 --> 0:14:01.520 look for long term try friends that will continue to 0:14:01.559 --> 0:14:04.960 do well over the whole year and even twenty twenty 0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:06.520 six and twenty seven going forward. 0:14:06.640 --> 0:14:07.800 So the big themes are. 0:14:07.720 --> 0:14:12.880 Things like global data centers, continued rise of AI. 0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:14.920 Recovery of real estate. 0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:17.200 You know, there's a lot of positive themes here for 0:14:17.240 --> 0:14:19.240 people to look at. So we're looking at things that 0:14:19.280 --> 0:14:23.000 will continue to grow in frankly a risk on environment. 0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:25.000 Of course there will be consolidations. 0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:28.200 Of course there will be down days and corrections, there 0:14:28.240 --> 0:14:30.480 has to be, But it doesn't mean that the. 0:14:30.480 --> 0:14:33.440 Overall trajectory for the year will not be up. And 0:14:33.480 --> 0:14:34.840 that's the direction that we're going. 0:14:34.880 --> 0:14:37.640 We're going to hire US markets for a whole bunch 0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:40.960 of reasons, and for that reason, the clients are happy. 0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:43.880 And they're not looking to pull back on their equity positions. 0:14:43.920 --> 0:14:47.080 If anything, down days are good times to add to 0:14:47.120 --> 0:14:49.560 positions that you know will do well over the long term. 0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:52.120 So the counter to that is that the US makes 0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:55.000 up so much now of the global markets that everyone 0:14:55.080 --> 0:14:59.040 is just so heavily allocated to that also, can we 0:14:59.080 --> 0:14:59.880 get all the things? 0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:00.960 Can we get lower. 0:15:00.720 --> 0:15:04.240 Inflation, a good jobs market, continued fed cuts, some kind 0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:06.760 of fiscal stimulus from Washington, and higher equities? 0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:09.600 Is that all reality for us? How do you push 0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:10.240 back against that? 0:15:11.400 --> 0:15:15.160 Well, I don't see any headwinds. Nobody is telegraphing very loudly. 0:15:15.200 --> 0:15:18.480 For example, Powell is not saying I'm stopping cutting. There 0:15:18.520 --> 0:15:21.240 are no big inflation numbers that are zapping people and 0:15:21.360 --> 0:15:23.600 warning the data is supporting that thesis. 0:15:23.680 --> 0:15:24.160 Right now. 0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:27.640 So obviously if the data changes drastically, if suddenly there's 0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:31.080 a run on US workers and suddenly wages are shooting up, 0:15:31.120 --> 0:15:32.760 we will hear about it. It will show up in 0:15:32.800 --> 0:15:36.360 the numbers. So right now, there's not a lot of 0:15:36.640 --> 0:15:41.040 evidence to counter the continued dominance of the US equity. 0:15:40.640 --> 0:15:42.280 Markets for that reason. 0:15:42.400 --> 0:15:43.880 As you know, I work with also a lot of 0:15:43.920 --> 0:15:47.080 non US families, and for them, this is the safe haven. 0:15:47.200 --> 0:15:49.240 Come and put your money into US equities if you 0:15:49.280 --> 0:15:52.240 wanted to grow. It used to also be US real estate, 0:15:52.280 --> 0:15:54.520 but I think right now equities are equally attractive and 0:15:54.640 --> 0:15:57.080 obviously much more liquid than US real estate. 0:15:58.360 --> 0:16:01.320 So let's go to some names. That's your Amazon, what 0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:02.120 are your thoughts there? 0:16:03.080 --> 0:16:06.480 I love Amazon because again this is a company that 0:16:06.560 --> 0:16:09.200 has many, many arms and many ways to make money, 0:16:09.320 --> 0:16:10.720 lots of revenue sources. 0:16:11.120 --> 0:16:12.520 They'll do well over the holidays. 0:16:12.520 --> 0:16:15.000 There's always a bit of grumbling, you know, will consumers 0:16:15.000 --> 0:16:18.040 shop online? And then every year we see the amount 0:16:18.040 --> 0:16:22.280 of consumers shopping online increasing relative to in person shopping. 0:16:22.760 --> 0:16:26.160 And Amazon's you know, next day delivery is fairly flawless. 0:16:26.480 --> 0:16:29.640 They're also making you know, have the Amazon Web services 0:16:29.680 --> 0:16:33.200 and have huge cloud computing capabilities they're pushing into AI. 0:16:33.960 --> 0:16:37.320 So I think Amazon is continuing to be a dominant player. 0:16:37.360 --> 0:16:39.520 And again, the big are going to get bigger. The 0:16:39.600 --> 0:16:41.920 winners are going to win more. That's the kind of 0:16:41.920 --> 0:16:43.080 market that we're in right now. 0:16:43.080 --> 0:16:45.480 This is not a market, in my opinion, to bet 0:16:45.520 --> 0:16:48.960 on the underdogs, take the stupid bet, take the momentum bet, 0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:50.800 and bet on the big winners because they're going to 0:16:50.840 --> 0:16:54.800 continue to win and certainly, you know, Amazon and Vidia, 0:16:55.080 --> 0:16:57.400 names like this are going to continue to be the winners, 0:16:57.400 --> 0:16:58.920 certainly for twenty twenty five. 0:16:59.200 --> 0:17:02.720 Okay, and dip because Amazon closed it a record high yesterday, 0:17:02.760 --> 0:17:04.160 so any dip you want to buy them? 0:17:04.520 --> 0:17:04.760 Yeah? 0:17:04.800 --> 0:17:06.840 Absolutely, I mean if you don't have them, I've been 0:17:06.880 --> 0:17:08.680 telling people to buy them for a few years now, 0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:11.320 so hopefully they did. But it's a great Christmas present. 0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:13.800 Rather than buying Disney stock, although it's very nice. Disney 0:17:13.880 --> 0:17:15.920 is a bit of a one trick, Tony. Go ahead 0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:19.240 and buy Amazon for your kids trusts or when you're 0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:21.280 doing your final gifting for the end of this year, 0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:23.639 go ahead and put some Amazon stock in the trust 0:17:23.680 --> 0:17:25.800 for all the kids and the charities, and you'll be 0:17:25.880 --> 0:17:26.560 very glad you did. 0:17:26.600 --> 0:17:29.520 So my daughter will be so excited Christmas morning. Here's 0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:33.400 Amazon stock fairness exactly, so. 0:17:34.200 --> 0:17:36.879 When she's going to college, trust me, yep, exactly. 0:17:37.560 --> 0:17:39.080 Carol, talk to us real quickly. I know you've been 0:17:39.119 --> 0:17:41.440 consistently bullish on it. In Vidia. What's your thoughts here? 0:17:42.240 --> 0:17:44.560 Yeah, I think that again they're the dominant player. I 0:17:44.600 --> 0:17:47.000 don't think anybody's going to catch them in the near term. 0:17:47.119 --> 0:17:49.720 And so again, think of if you had been smart 0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:51.000 enough to buy Amazon when it. 0:17:50.920 --> 0:17:53.879 Came out, how wealthy you would be today. 0:17:53.960 --> 0:17:57.359 So again, buy Nvidia, hold your nose at the price 0:17:57.440 --> 0:17:59.520 and put it away because it's going to be worth 0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:03.200 ten to fifteen twenty one hundred times more five years 0:18:03.200 --> 0:18:03.520 from now. 0:18:03.600 --> 0:18:06.159 So hold on to that stock. Nvidia continues to be 0:18:06.240 --> 0:18:07.320 the best play out there. 0:18:07.359 --> 0:18:09.959 Of course, others will come along, but it doesn't mean 0:18:10.000 --> 0:18:11.840 they won't continue to be the market leader, and they 0:18:11.880 --> 0:18:13.680 have plenty of cash to keep innovating. 0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:16.480