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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Easter on Apple, card Playing and

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Speaker 2: Broyd Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand

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Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Malex del alongside Paul Sweeney.

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Speaker 4: This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio.

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Speaker 3: We bring you all the top news and business, economics

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Speaker 3: and finance. There are a lens of Bloomberg Intelligence folks.

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Speaker 3: They cover two thousand companies and one hundred and thirty

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Speaker 3: industries all around the world. So, in case you didn't know,

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Speaker 3: bitcoins now up over one hundred thousand dollars. This comes

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Speaker 3: a day after President Trump picked a pro crypto pick

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Speaker 3: for the SEC.

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Speaker 4: That was a hard thing to say. Pro pro crypto pick. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: try to be that fast. More so than Gary Gensler,

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Speaker 4: I guess much more so. This is Paul Atkins.

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Speaker 3: Apparently he is a crypto proponent, but also very much

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Speaker 3: in favor of.

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Speaker 4: Less regulation et cetera. Broadly, Yes, I'm.

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Speaker 5: In an upgrade on the Newark closing. Oh okay, okay,

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Speaker 5: just real quick, the FAA says Newark Airport closed to

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Speaker 5: general aviation aircraft, so not commercial, not the big jets,

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Speaker 5: the smaller planes. That's the rinking planes that I flowed.

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Speaker 6: That's what That's why we have titoborough going too there

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Speaker 6: for their ranking, the smaller private craft.

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Speaker 4: Right, Okay, Okay, well I'm glad. I'm gonna be sure.

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Speaker 6: About to find them Marshtown.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 3: So we bring you weather updates and air updates as

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Speaker 3: well as talking to our Bloomberg Intelligence guys, and for

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Speaker 3: that we have go to Michael mcgloan. He is Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: Intelligence senior commodity strategist and he's in Florida, so he

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Speaker 3: doesn't have any win weather issues right now. All right, Mike,

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Speaker 3: I know a lot of hayes being made about one

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Speaker 3: hundred thousand dollars, does it?

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Speaker 4: Do we need to retrace here though at some point.

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Speaker 7: That seems a bit elusive at the moment, Alex, it's

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Speaker 7: it's it's fouled the money. It's been since this year started,

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Speaker 7: about thirty two billion dollars of ETF inflows. Since President

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Speaker 7: Trump was elected, about eight billion dollars of ETF inflows.

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Speaker 7: And to put that in context, there's been on the

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Speaker 7: year about almost six billion dollars of outflows in gold

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Speaker 7: ETF Now they've picked up recently, but yeah, so me

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Speaker 7: to me, that's from a commander standpoint, this is what's happening,

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Speaker 7: I think is one hundred thousand. It's pretty good resistance.

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Speaker 7: It's a milestone. I think it really brings into the forefront.

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Speaker 7: But it's also showing the major paradigm shift. Of holding

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Speaker 7: gold without bitcoin in that space is just for miss.

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Speaker 7: You have to have some bitcoin in there or your

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Speaker 7: miss risk of missing out. So to the key thing

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Speaker 7: I've been watching today is the ounces of gold per

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Speaker 7: one bitcoin may a new high up to thirty nine.

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Speaker 8: Right now it's about thirty eight.

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Speaker 7: And questions what stops that trajectory from going higher?

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Speaker 6: Mike, give us a sense of how you think it

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Speaker 6: might be reasonable to try to value a commodity or

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Speaker 6: a currency like bitcoin. Do I look at a relative

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Speaker 6: to I don't know, pork bellies or gold?

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Speaker 4: Laughing at you right now, yeah what do I do?

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Speaker 9: Paul?

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Speaker 7: I enjoyed the question bit snickering because it's like, right now,

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Speaker 7: it's animal spirits.

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Speaker 2: It's it's the way I always look at.

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Speaker 7: Commandis supplying demand. Now that's one thing about bitcoin has

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Speaker 7: definable diminishing supply. Basically on the mount you can only

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Speaker 7: mine a day is four hundred and fifty bitcoins, and

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Speaker 7: that's going to cut and be cut in half in

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Speaker 7: twenty twenty eight. And it's just the way it's set up.

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Speaker 7: And there's increasing demand and adoption, so price must go

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Speaker 7: all over time, and it's just going to have these nuances.

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Speaker 7: But right now it's about the major shift in this

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Speaker 7: country from being really pushing against cryptos, as we saw

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Speaker 7: with Gary Gensler, now shifting over to a whole government

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Speaker 7: that's so much positive cryptos, and you see things like

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Speaker 7: the potential for us to be in the USA if

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Speaker 7: you actually sell gold and buy bitcoin, which I think

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Speaker 7: is a bit wild, but that was a bloomberg story

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Speaker 7: that really hit this tape. The tape this weekend. So

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Speaker 7: and then quotes from Chairman Powell pointing out that it's

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Speaker 7: digital gold, and even from President Putin, there's nothing that

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Speaker 7: can really stop it.

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Speaker 8: It's it's the animal.

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Speaker 7: Spirits right now. But it's the key thing I'm worried

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Speaker 7: about is now that we have it into the mainstream

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Speaker 7: and all the ETF people are buying and adding to

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Speaker 7: the portfolio. We still haven't seen the big test of

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Speaker 7: how bitcoin responds after President and Trump has been elected,

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Speaker 7: when the stock market goes down, and you know at

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Speaker 7: some point it will, and it hasn't been through that

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Speaker 7: so right now, I think what you're seeing is a

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Speaker 7: lot of people are adding it so that they're getting

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Speaker 7: off zero, but it's still a highly speculus digital asset

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Speaker 7: basically trains about three times voltuli of the S and

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Speaker 7: P five hundred and goal.

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Speaker 4: Oh wow, I.

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Speaker 3: Did not know that stat when we when we had

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Speaker 3: the optimism from Paul Atkins now being the nominee.

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Speaker 4: For SEC, What regulation what?

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Speaker 3: What do you think the crypto guys were so pumped

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Speaker 3: about and that it was him versus a Gary Gens

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Speaker 3: or like what kind of regulation there needs to be

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Speaker 3: rolled back or needs to happen?

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Speaker 4: In general, I.

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Speaker 7: Think it's the the stop of the pushback. There was

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Speaker 7: significant pushback. Let look how I mean the crypto people

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Speaker 7: had to go to court to get ETF's launched and

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Speaker 7: these things have been in it works for a decade.

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Speaker 7: It was just kind of silly. I mean, those of

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Speaker 7: us who trade commodity ETFs so forever, so they're very

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Speaker 7: much more risky than a bitcoining death. So it was

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Speaker 7: just silly. Some of the extreme relation that pushed against it.

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Speaker 7: In the bottom line that always really kind of flummecks

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Speaker 7: me was this space adopted the dollar as its space layer.

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Speaker 7: And that's one thing I always say, well, if you're

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Speaker 7: an American, why would you push back on that? And

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Speaker 7: I think that's what's happened. We've had no Zeldt like

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Speaker 7: a convert, mister Trump shifting over to being much more

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Speaker 7: of a convert. And the key thing I like to

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Speaker 7: point out is today, you know, we're all talking about bitcoin,

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Speaker 7: but if you look at the trading volume and crypto's

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Speaker 7: tether the dollar, the dollar token is trading almost three

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Speaker 7: times the volume of bitcoin, and it's market cap is

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Speaker 7: about one hundred and thirty billion. I remember first talking

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Speaker 7: about in twenty eighteen. There's only two billion. It's just

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Speaker 7: the technology is overwhelming, and it's really favorable for the

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Speaker 7: US and for the dollar.

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Speaker 6: All right, Mike, always good stuff chatting with you. Mike mcglowan,

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Speaker 6: Senior commodity strategist. We'll talk port bellies next time.

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Speaker 8: He's there.

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Speaker 6: With Bloomberg Intelligence based down in Miami, I went to

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Speaker 6: talking about oil because I'm watching the TV series Land Now.

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Speaker 4: It's all the oil and history.

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Speaker 6: How is it awesome? And I'm learning all about the

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Speaker 6: oil and gas business.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, card Play and

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Speaker 2: Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen

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Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

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Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: The top TiO political news of the last twenty four

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Speaker 3: hours is what's happening over in France. We are still

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Speaker 3: looking for President Emmanuel Macron to speak later on this afternoon.

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Speaker 3: We're all waiting to see who he'll nominate as his

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Speaker 3: next our premiere. They're facing a political crisis over in France,

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Speaker 3: if you remember, the government lost a no confidence vote

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Speaker 3: in parliament. In an exclusive interview at Bloomberg's, Francine Lachwa

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Speaker 3: Marine La Penn, leader of the National Rally the far Right,

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Speaker 3: discussed whether President Emmanuel Macross should resign. She said it

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Speaker 3: was a personal decision. Led di Mission in Prison Live.

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Speaker 9: What I said was that the president's resignation is a

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Speaker 9: personal decision for him and can only take in my view,

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Speaker 9: when a political crisis happens or an institutional crisis, can

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Speaker 9: no longer have any other solution than the resignation of

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Speaker 9: the President of the Republic. What I do wish, on

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Speaker 9: the other hand, because for sure there will be new

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Speaker 9: legislative elections in the next few months, is that we

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Speaker 9: work on a voting system by then that enables us

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Speaker 9: to have a real majority, whatever that majority may be.

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Speaker 9: But the country needs a majority. It can't live for

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Speaker 9: months and the years with three blocks, which in reality

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Speaker 9: can't implement a policy.

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Speaker 4: All right.

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Speaker 6: That was marine A lepen, a, leader of the National

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Speaker 6: Rally Party of France along with Bloomberg's front Sine Lacroix.

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Speaker 6: Let's got the latest reporting from the French political situation.

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Speaker 6: Phil Serafino joints a senior markets editor for Bloomberg News.

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Speaker 6: He is in France, Phil, can you give us the

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Speaker 6: latest reporting? What are the next steps here for French politics?

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Speaker 8: Well, as you mentioned, Macron is speaking on French TV

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Speaker 8: tonight Paris time, and the expectation is that, you know,

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Speaker 8: by rights, he should be naming a new prime minister

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Speaker 8: because because it's not good to have a caretaker government.

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Speaker 8: The other existing Prime minister, Michelle Barnier handled in his

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Speaker 8: resignation today after the no confidence vote. It's not clear

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Speaker 8: though that in fact he will have a name ready

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Speaker 8: to go tonight. It took him a couple of months

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Speaker 8: over the summer to come up with the name of

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Speaker 8: Michelle Barnier because he's trying to deal with a very

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Speaker 8: divided parliament, as you mentioned. So he's speaking tonight. Whether

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Speaker 8: he will have the name of a prime minister, we

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Speaker 8: do not know yet, but that's the thing people are

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Speaker 8: waiting for. Can he find someone who can bridge the

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Speaker 8: political divide in parliament?

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Speaker 3: So when Marie Lampenn comes out and says, I don't

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Speaker 3: think you should resign, it's up to him, And then

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Speaker 3: Matcross says he has no intention of stepping down.

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Speaker 4: Are people asking him to do that?

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Speaker 1: Like?

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Speaker 4: Is that now in the zeitgeist?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, there has been much talk of that. It's been

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Speaker 8: kicking around for a few months since his party lost

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Speaker 8: badly in the European elections and then in the following

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Speaker 8: French parliamentary elections. That has been kicking around and he's

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Speaker 8: said he's not going to do that. His term runs

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Speaker 8: through twenty twenty seven. You get two five your terms

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Speaker 8: in France, he wants to serve out his second term,

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Speaker 8: so and it seems like a little bit of an

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Speaker 8: olive branch on her part to say she's not pushing

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Speaker 8: for that now there's still remains, there's there's a very

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Speaker 8: difficult situation politically to get a budget passed and get

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Speaker 8: it through parliament.

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Speaker 2: So we'll see.

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Speaker 6: Boy, I'm not sure i'd want to be prime minister

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Speaker 6: there because as I understand the kidding, as I understand,

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Speaker 6: it's almost like a no win situation here with the

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Speaker 6: right and the left seemingly having some level of you know,

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Speaker 6: being united here. Is there any room to govern here?

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Speaker 8: Well, it seems like it's a very difficult needle to

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Speaker 8: thread because the far right and the far left, you know,

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Speaker 8: both have demands that Macron does not want to meet.

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Speaker 8: He particularly does not want to deal with the far

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Speaker 8: left party, which sort of dominates this three party coalition

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Speaker 8: of left wing of left wing parties. So he's trying

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Speaker 8: to come up with a sort of centrist approach to

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Speaker 8: the budget. But they just tried that. They came up

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Speaker 8: with what they thought was a compromise and it got rejected.

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Speaker 8: So hard to see I mean, the math doesn't change

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Speaker 8: in parliament just because the prime minister has stepped down.

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Speaker 8: He still needs to come up with the budget that

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Speaker 8: he can get a majority vote for, and unclear how

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Speaker 8: that's going to happen.

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Speaker 3: Okay, so on that here in the US, if you

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Speaker 3: can't approve a budget or an extension, the government shuts down.

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Speaker 3: What happens in France.

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Speaker 8: I think they can do sort of an emergency budget.

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Speaker 8: The problem is there are EU rules on the budget

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Speaker 8: deficit and France has far exceeded those, and France has

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Speaker 8: made pledges to the European Union that they will get

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Speaker 8: that deficit under control with an emergency budget. I don't

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Speaker 8: know that that does what they need to do as

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Speaker 8: far as cutting spending and possibly raising taxes, And that's

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Speaker 8: the sticking point. You know that the budget needs to

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Speaker 8: cut spending and raise taxes. They're going to raise taxes

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Speaker 8: on companies and the wealthy. Marie Lapenn today was saying,

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Speaker 8: we're not going to do We're not going to go

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Speaker 8: as far as you want it to go. We'll let

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Speaker 8: the budget deficit run a little a little wider than

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Speaker 8: we otherwise would. So I think in short term they

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Speaker 8: can sort of paper things over. It's the medium term

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Speaker 8: and the long term where they have a real problem.

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Speaker 6: All right, Phil, thank you so much for joining us.

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Speaker 6: Really appreciate it. Phil Sarafino, Senior market seditor for Bloomberg News.

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Speaker 6: He is located in our Paris bureau.

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Speaker 2: Here.

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Speaker 6: Again, we'll hear from French President Macron at two pm

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Speaker 6: Wall Street time eight pm Paris local time, and we'll

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Speaker 6: see what he has to say about this government. Well,

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Speaker 6: will he have a new prime minister to offer.

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Speaker 4: I think it was.

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Speaker 3: Carolyn Kannan yesterday who was talking to us about the

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Speaker 3: fact that Marie La Penn doesn't actually want to be

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Speaker 3: seen as an agent of chaos, like.

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Speaker 4: That's not part of her goal.

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Speaker 3: So that is also quite interesting in terms of how

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Speaker 3: they will negotiate who will become the next premiere at

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Speaker 3: the end of the day. I've also read some articles

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Speaker 3: that look, Macross should give an Olive brand.

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Speaker 4: To say the right, etc. More than centrist right. So

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Speaker 4: it's gonna it's gonna be really quite complicated.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Playing and

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Speaker 2: Broyd Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand

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Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Alex Steel here alongside Paul Sweeney and John Tucker. This

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Speaker 3: is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. We are currently broadcasting to live

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Speaker 3: from Interactive Broker Studio right here in Midtown Manhattan.

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Speaker 4: Also check us out on YouTube as well.

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Speaker 3: So for the markets, we hit the fifty six record

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Speaker 3: high of the year. Market's going nowhere fast today. So

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Speaker 3: what happens then if we get the Santa Claus Rally?

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Speaker 3: What happens after? In twenty twenty five, Carol Pepper, founder

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Speaker 3: and CEO at Pepper International, joins us. Now, Carol, that

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Speaker 3: was a great survey that came out today that talked

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Speaker 3: about our CEO confidence is smashing it. After the election,

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Speaker 3: CEOs feel so much more confident about the economy, etc.

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Speaker 4: Does this last?

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Speaker 3: And is that optimism reflected inequities and should be?

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Speaker 10: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I think they're confident for good reasons.

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Speaker 10: I think first of all, the fact that we have

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Speaker 10: peaceful election and there's not going to be any other

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Speaker 10: problems in January is making everybody very happy.

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Speaker 1: The new team is organizing, getting itself together.

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Speaker 10: There are checks and balances with the minority Democrats and

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Speaker 10: some of the other Republicans. So the political situation here

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Speaker 10: has become very calm.

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Speaker 1: That makes people very happy. There's also a commitment to

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Speaker 1: keeping regulation.

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Speaker 10: Low, not adding additional burdens on companies, so CEOs are

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Speaker 10: justified being happy. And on top of that, the economy

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Speaker 10: is humming along, inflation is under control. If you were

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Speaker 10: a CEO, what more could you ask for other than

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Speaker 10: a big bonus at Christmas, which a lot of them

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Speaker 10: are because they had a great year this year.

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Speaker 6: So what are some of the areas when you talk

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Speaker 6: to your clients, your private clients here, what are some

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Speaker 6: of the themes that you're bringing to bear on twenty

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Speaker 6: twenty five.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, Well, as you know, I run money for family

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Speaker 10: offices with over one hundred million dollars and basically we

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Speaker 10: look for long term try friends that will continue to

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Speaker 10: do well over the whole year and even twenty twenty

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Speaker 10: six and twenty seven going forward.

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Speaker 1: So the big themes are.

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Speaker 10: Things like global data centers, continued rise of AI.

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Speaker 1: Recovery of real estate.

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Speaker 10: You know, there's a lot of positive themes here for

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Speaker 10: people to look at. So we're looking at things that

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Speaker 10: will continue to grow in frankly a risk on environment.

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Speaker 1: Of course there will be consolidations.

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Speaker 10: Of course there will be down days and corrections, there

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Speaker 10: has to be, But it doesn't mean that the.

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Speaker 1: Overall trajectory for the year will not be up. And

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Speaker 1: that's the direction that we're going.

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Speaker 10: We're going to hire US markets for a whole bunch

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Speaker 10: of reasons, and for that reason, the clients are happy.

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Speaker 1: And they're not looking to pull back on their equity positions.

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Speaker 10: If anything, down days are good times to add to

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Speaker 10: positions that you know will do well over the long term.

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Speaker 3: So the counter to that is that the US makes

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Speaker 3: up so much now of the global markets that everyone

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Speaker 3: is just so heavily allocated to that also, can we

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Speaker 3: get all the things?

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Speaker 4: Can we get lower.

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Speaker 3: Inflation, a good jobs market, continued fed cuts, some kind

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Speaker 3: of fiscal stimulus from Washington, and higher equities?

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Speaker 4: Is that all reality for us? How do you push

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Speaker 4: back against that?

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Speaker 10: Well, I don't see any headwinds. Nobody is telegraphing very loudly.

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Speaker 10: For example, Powell is not saying I'm stopping cutting. There

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Speaker 10: are no big inflation numbers that are zapping people and

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Speaker 10: warning the data is supporting that thesis.

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Speaker 1: Right now.

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Speaker 10: So obviously if the data changes drastically, if suddenly there's

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Speaker 10: a run on US workers and suddenly wages are shooting up,

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Speaker 10: we will hear about it. It will show up in

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Speaker 10: the numbers. So right now, there's not a lot of

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Speaker 10: evidence to counter the continued dominance of the US equity.

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Speaker 1: Markets for that reason.

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Speaker 10: As you know, I work with also a lot of

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Speaker 10: non US families, and for them, this is the safe haven.

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Speaker 10: Come and put your money into US equities if you

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Speaker 10: wanted to grow. It used to also be US real estate,

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Speaker 10: but I think right now equities are equally attractive and

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Speaker 10: obviously much more liquid than US real estate.

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Speaker 6: So let's go to some names. That's your Amazon, what

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Speaker 6: are your thoughts there?

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Speaker 10: I love Amazon because again this is a company that

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Speaker 10: has many, many arms and many ways to make money,

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Speaker 10: lots of revenue sources.

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Speaker 1: They'll do well over the holidays.

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Speaker 10: There's always a bit of grumbling, you know, will consumers

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Speaker 10: shop online? And then every year we see the amount

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Speaker 10: of consumers shopping online increasing relative to in person shopping.

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Speaker 10: And Amazon's you know, next day delivery is fairly flawless.

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Speaker 10: They're also making you know, have the Amazon Web services

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Speaker 10: and have huge cloud computing capabilities they're pushing into AI.

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Speaker 10: So I think Amazon is continuing to be a dominant player.

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Speaker 1: And again, the big are going to get bigger. The

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Speaker 1: winners are going to win more. That's the kind of

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Speaker 1: market that we're in right now.

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Speaker 10: This is not a market, in my opinion, to bet

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Speaker 10: on the underdogs, take the stupid bet, take the momentum bet,

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Speaker 10: and bet on the big winners because they're going to

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Speaker 10: continue to win and certainly, you know, Amazon and Vidia,

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Speaker 10: names like this are going to continue to be the winners,

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Speaker 10: certainly for twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 3: Okay, and dip because Amazon closed it a record high yesterday,

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Speaker 3: so any dip you want to buy them?

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Speaker 7: Yeah?

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Speaker 10: Absolutely, I mean if you don't have them, I've been

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Speaker 10: telling people to buy them for a few years now,

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Speaker 10: so hopefully they did. But it's a great Christmas present.

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Speaker 10: Rather than buying Disney stock, although it's very nice. Disney

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Speaker 10: is a bit of a one trick, Tony. Go ahead

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Speaker 10: and buy Amazon for your kids trusts or when you're

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Speaker 10: doing your final gifting for the end of this year,

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Speaker 10: go ahead and put some Amazon stock in the trust

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Speaker 10: for all the kids and the charities, and you'll be

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Speaker 10: very glad you did.

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Speaker 4: So my daughter will be so excited Christmas morning. Here's

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Speaker 4: Amazon stock fairness exactly, so.

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Speaker 1: When she's going to college, trust me, yep, exactly.

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Speaker 6: Carol, talk to us real quickly. I know you've been

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Speaker 6: consistently bullish on it. In Vidia. What's your thoughts here?

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Speaker 10: Yeah, I think that again they're the dominant player. I

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Speaker 10: don't think anybody's going to catch them in the near term.

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Speaker 10: And so again, think of if you had been smart

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Speaker 10: enough to buy Amazon when it.

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Speaker 1: Came out, how wealthy you would be today.

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Speaker 10: So again, buy Nvidia, hold your nose at the price

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Speaker 10: and put it away because it's going to be worth

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Speaker 10: ten to fifteen twenty one hundred times more five years

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Speaker 10: from now.

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Speaker 1: So hold on to that stock. Nvidia continues to be

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Speaker 1: the best play out there.

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Speaker 10: Of course, others will come along, but it doesn't mean

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Speaker 10: they won't continue to be the market leader, and they

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Speaker 10: have plenty of cash to keep innovating.

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Speaker 6: All right, Carol, thank you so much. We appreciate getting

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Speaker 6: your thoughts. Carol Pepper, she's a founder and CEO of

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Speaker 6: Pepper International, joining us from New York City via the

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Speaker 6: zoom thing.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

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Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

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Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

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Speaker 2: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's get to some oil talk here. You

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Speaker 3: got WTI up by two tenths of one percent. Sixty

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Speaker 3: eight is where we print the news. Widely expected, by

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Speaker 3: the way, as it opec plus is delaying the revival

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Speaker 3: of its oil production by about three months. It's the

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Speaker 3: third time it's had to defer this move as crude

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Speaker 3: prices really struggle. So wanted to get a read on

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Speaker 3: that with Ellen Waald, president of Transversal Consulting and senior

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Speaker 3: fellow at Atlantic Council.

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Speaker 4: Ellen, how unanimous was this? How what was it like

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Speaker 4: for them.

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Speaker 3: To get to this decision because opep plus is not

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Speaker 3: as harmonious as one may think.

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Speaker 11: Absolutely, it does seem as though this decision was arrived at,

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Speaker 11: you know, by consensus.

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Speaker 12: It doesn't seem like it was all that controversial.

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Speaker 3: Though.

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Speaker 11: Remember the meeting was actually supposed to happen last week

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Speaker 11: or earlier in the week, so clearly they needed a

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Speaker 11: couple more days to get all the ducks in a row,

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Speaker 11: get everyone to agree. I would imagine that some of

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Speaker 11: the tougher parties to get online might have been the UAE,

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Speaker 11: because they're they've been waiting for this baseline quota increased

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Speaker 11: for a while, and now they're pushing it off again

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Speaker 11: by another three months.

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Speaker 12: So you know, that's what That's what I imagine.

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Speaker 11: Because it was all done virtually, we didn't really get

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Speaker 11: a front row seat into, you know, how it all

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Speaker 11: happened and what was going on. But it does seem

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Speaker 11: like everyone is on board with all of these changes.

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Speaker 6: Ellen. I know when we talk, you know, global crude oil,

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Speaker 6: we have to have a sense of supply and demand.

442
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:13,840
Speaker 6: Heary is a commodity, what's the what's the demand model?

443
00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:15,880
Speaker 6: Looking for a lot of folks out there these days.

444
00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:17,919
Speaker 6: I think hence, you know it's sixty eight dollars for

445
00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:20,879
Speaker 6: WTI crude, will I I just deduced it's not that great.

446
00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:25,080
Speaker 11: Yeah, I think that that's probably lower than most OPAQ.

447
00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:26,320
Speaker 12: Members would want right now.

448
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:29,480
Speaker 11: I think Saudi Arabia is really fine with it. I mean,

449
00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:31,120
Speaker 11: would they all like oil to be higher?

450
00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:31,400
Speaker 7: Sure?

451
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 12: Of course, they would, but you.

452
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:36,520
Speaker 11: Know, we're not in like crisis territory at all right now.

453
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:39,760
Speaker 11: I do think that, you know, when we're looking at demand,

454
00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:43,280
Speaker 11: it's a very it's a very sketchy picture. For a while,

455
00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:46,719
Speaker 11: OPEC was having forecasts that we're showing a lot higher demand,

456
00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:50,120
Speaker 11: and that was definitely what was fueling a lot of

457
00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:52,440
Speaker 11: the anticipated return of this.

458
00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:53,639
Speaker 12: Production to the market.

459
00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:57,800
Speaker 11: The OPAQ forecast, OPEX, you know, economic team was showing

460
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:00,600
Speaker 11: a lot more demand growth that was going to be

461
00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,199
Speaker 11: happening in twenty twenty four and twenty twenty five. Then

462
00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:07,200
Speaker 11: I think materialized and I think that they see going forward,

463
00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:08,920
Speaker 11: and so this is definitely a.

464
00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:12,800
Speaker 12: Reflection of modifications in terms of what they think demand's

465
00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:13,199
Speaker 12: going to be.

466
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,520
Speaker 11: I think the long term picture is still pretty strong,

467
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 11: but right now, you know, we're really not looking at

468
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:20,480
Speaker 11: major increases in demand.

469
00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:24,440
Speaker 3: Javier blast is a Bloomberg opinion columnist. He also writes

470
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:26,760
Speaker 3: the book on OPEK as well, and he had a

471
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,720
Speaker 3: really great column out earlier in the week that said

472
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,679
Speaker 3: that the number two official in the Iranian delegation to

473
00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:35,840
Speaker 3: OPEC plus published commentary in his country's state run news

474
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:38,320
Speaker 3: agency on November twenty six, it was since taken down,

475
00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 3: it's taken down really fast. But he argued that OPEK

476
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:44,520
Speaker 3: plus is facing a supply glut, largely of its own making,

477
00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:49,120
Speaker 3: following several years of production cuts. As we can understand,

478
00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 3: that strategy winds up supporting those that have lower input prices,

479
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,800
Speaker 3: like say the US or offshore drillers, and encouraged higher

480
00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:58,399
Speaker 3: supply outside of the group.

481
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:01,000
Speaker 4: Is that of view that is.

482
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:04,240
Speaker 3: Acknowledged at all in any way among the doors of

483
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:05,359
Speaker 3: OPEC officials.

484
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:09,080
Speaker 11: So I think that that's definitely kind of this ongoing

485
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:13,919
Speaker 11: debate here. Is OPEK, by curbing their own production to

486
00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:18,840
Speaker 11: try to support prices, is that in effect basically opening

487
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:22,160
Speaker 11: the door for all of this non OPEC production to flourish.

488
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:25,600
Speaker 11: And that's been the case basically since OPEK got started.

489
00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:28,159
Speaker 11: I mean, this is not a new point that he's making.

490
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 11: This has always been, you know, an issue. This has

491
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 11: always been something that has been problematic, and I think

492
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:35,399
Speaker 11: that you have to when you look at it in

493
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:38,200
Speaker 11: the long you know, the kind of big picture you're

494
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,360
Speaker 11: looking at. Look, there are cycles and oil prices.

495
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:41,760
Speaker 12: It all goes through cycles.

496
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:44,159
Speaker 11: There's boom and there's bust, and there's higher prices, and

497
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 11: there's lower prices, and there's always non OPEC production to

498
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:52,320
Speaker 11: contend with. And unless OPEK has a real hold on

499
00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:56,880
Speaker 11: the most or the majority of the supply, they can't

500
00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:00,680
Speaker 11: control the market. And a period of very high prices

501
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:04,000
Speaker 11: is going to lead to more production, you know, from

502
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:06,320
Speaker 11: non OPEC sources, and then you have periods of low

503
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,639
Speaker 11: prices and you're going to see some go go bust.

504
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:10,920
Speaker 12: So I think that he's making a point.

505
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 11: He's saying that by curbing production for so long, we've

506
00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 11: supported prices enabled these other guys to produce more, you know.

507
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 12: I think that's that's normal. They could have decided to

508
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:21,680
Speaker 12: continue to take the Ali.

509
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:25,200
Speaker 11: Naimi strategy, which was all out production, produce as much

510
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 11: as you can and try to get these higher cost

511
00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:29,360
Speaker 11: producers out of the market.

512
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:31,640
Speaker 12: I don't think that worked as well as they thought

513
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:33,440
Speaker 12: it would. It definitely has.

514
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:37,040
Speaker 11: Potential, though, So it's it's definitely a tension within OPEC

515
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:38,640
Speaker 11: that is ever present.

516
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:38,800
Speaker 8: All right.

517
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:41,919
Speaker 6: I told Alex, I'm watching the TV show Landman all

518
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,720
Speaker 6: about the oil business down in like West Texas. I'm

519
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:47,199
Speaker 6: learning all about this stuff. What are our friends in

520
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 6: Texas and Louisiana and Oklahoma. What are they doing in

521
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 6: terms of their drilling activity these days.

522
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 12: So it's nice that you're watching that.

523
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 11: I haven't haven't tuned in yet, but I've definitely got

524
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:58,359
Speaker 11: it on my list.

525
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:00,639
Speaker 12: I think that down in Tech it's.

526
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 11: A totally different picture now than it was, say, five

527
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 11: years ago, ten years ago. They're really looking at a

528
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:10,359
Speaker 11: very different picture. We've got much larger producers running the

529
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:14,399
Speaker 11: show now. We've had so many, you know, consolidations, not

530
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:17,679
Speaker 11: just of the really little guys, but also even bigger acquisitions,

531
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 11: I mean, an excellent acquired pioneer, you know, we've got.

532
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:22,600
Speaker 12: They're much bigger players.

533
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:25,440
Speaker 11: Now, and they can afford to be more strategic about

534
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 11: their production.

535
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 12: So I think that in Texas now they're not.

536
00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 11: Really all that concerned about what Opek is doing all

537
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:32,240
Speaker 11: that much.

538
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:34,520
Speaker 12: Production is at a record high in the United States

539
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:35,000
Speaker 12: right now.

540
00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 11: Apparently we're thirteen point five million parrels a day of production,

541
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 11: which makes the US.

542
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,399
Speaker 12: The highest producer in the world right now.

543
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:44,719
Speaker 11: And so I think that they're really looking at it,

544
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 11: you know, in a longer term situation now, because they

545
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 11: are larger producers and they're more established, and they can

546
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:55,800
Speaker 11: afford to whether the lows more effectively than a lot

547
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:57,120
Speaker 11: of the smaller producers could.

548
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 4: All right, Ellen really appreciate it. Thank you so very much.

549
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:02,439
Speaker 3: Ellen will called a president of Transversal Consulting and senior

550
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 3: fellow at the Atlantic Council, joining us there.

551
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:10,359
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552
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:14,200
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553
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:17,280
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554
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,840
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555
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:24,080
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