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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome to a Saturday

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Speaker 1: morning episode of the Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Peralt.

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Speaker 1: You guys can follow me across all of my socials

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Speaker 1: at Sports Talk Matt, and we are back after another

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Speaker 1: good day. We have been rolling this week. Drake, well,

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Speaker 1: that went well over but Drake won the game outright,

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Speaker 1: knocked out Belmont, and well, it's going to be an

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Speaker 1: interesting couple of days in Saint Louis. More on Drake

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Speaker 1: and ui se coming up here. In just one second,

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Speaker 1: Valpo and Bradley go to double overtime, we get the

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Speaker 1: one thirty five, the over team USA late gets the

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Speaker 1: total to go over fourteen and a half. And the

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Speaker 1: play of the day for hard Rock that was the

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Speaker 1: Celtics and the Mavericks. That game just snuck under landed

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Speaker 1: two twenty so under two twenty two and a half.

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Speaker 1: It closed at two twenty five and a half. I

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Speaker 1: did not understand that move. But a three and one

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Speaker 1: day up one point nine units and it makes it

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Speaker 1: a very nice week for us going where we will

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Speaker 1: have a winning week. The question is just how big

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Speaker 1: of a winning week we're going to have here for us?

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Speaker 1: It's been a good couple of days, and after eight

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Speaker 1: and three, now we go into eleven and four, heading

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Speaker 1: into Saturday and Sunday, we have basketball and UFC three

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Speaker 1: twenty six to give you guys. Three college basketball plays

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Speaker 1: and one UFC parlay to throw at you guys coming

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Speaker 1: up here for today, so have some fun going on

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Speaker 1: the fight card here in Las Vegas. I was going

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Speaker 1: to go to the event, but I've got some personal

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Speaker 1: things that are going to prevent me from going. Everything's fine,

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Speaker 1: but I'm not gonna be able to go to the events,

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Speaker 1: So I'll be watching it at home like you guys

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Speaker 1: on Paramount to watch Max Holloway and Charlo's ol vera

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Speaker 1: fight for the BMF Belt coming up here for tonight

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Speaker 1: at UFC three twenty six. Before you give you the

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Speaker 1: college basketball plays, let me tell you about our friends

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Speaker 1: at hard Rock Bet. They're the presenting sponsor of the

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Speaker 1: Daily Just podcast. Hard Rock Bet is also Florida's sportsbook.

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Speaker 1: We have March, we have college basketball. The stakes are rising,

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Speaker 1: the shots are falling in everything. It's now time to

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Speaker 1: game betting opportunities, promos and more. And don't forget about

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Speaker 1: the World Baseball Classic. More on that game. Team USA

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Speaker 1: in Great Britain play today in the second game at

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Speaker 1: the World Baseball Classic in Houston. Hard Rock Bet with

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Speaker 1: and make your first deposit today. Okay, lots of stuff

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Speaker 1: to get into, so buckle up and get comfortable. Let's

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Speaker 1: talk about Vanderbilt at Tennessee. So this is going to

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Speaker 1: be a fun game. The first matchup was won by

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Speaker 1: Tennessee at Vanderbilt. They were catching three and a half

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Speaker 1: points and they won the game by four. Now at home,

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Speaker 1: Tennessee is laying three and a half points, and neither

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Speaker 1: team has been great ats so far this season fifteen

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Speaker 1: and fifteen Vanderbilt thirteen, sixteen and one Tennessee. But the

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Speaker 1: Vauls have been better in SEC play than Vanderbilt has

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Speaker 1: eight and one versus seven and ten. Over the last

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Speaker 1: five games. Vandy is just one in four ats while

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Speaker 1: Tennessee is three and two, and while they're only seven

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Speaker 1: and nine at home. This is Senior Day, this is

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Speaker 1: the last regular season home game, the last game overall

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Speaker 1: for Tennessee, and you look at the way they've been

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Speaker 1: playing recently. This is a team that lost to Alabama

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Speaker 1: at home. They were laying four and a half, they

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Speaker 1: lost a big lead in the second half. You know

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Speaker 1: they're frustrated. They went down South Carolina and beat up

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Speaker 1: on the game Cocks and won the game by nineteen points.

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Speaker 1: In their previous game for Vanderbilt, they squeaked by Ole

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Speaker 1: Miss laying seven and a half points, they won by three,

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Speaker 1: and they were catching one and a half against Kentucky

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Speaker 1: and they got pounded by fourteen. This is the third

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Speaker 1: consecutive road game for Vanderbilt, so that concerns me quite

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Speaker 1: a bit here when you look at these numbers and

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Speaker 1: for Tennessee at home, this is a four point win

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Speaker 1: according to Kempom seventy six to seventy two. I just

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Speaker 1: think the volunteers at home, with the home crowd against

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Speaker 1: their big ride, against their arrival here, I think we're

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Speaker 1: going to see a really interesting situation for the balls

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Speaker 1: at home. Defensively, it's always a little scary with Tennessee

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Speaker 1: just because of the way they play, But I like

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Speaker 1: the valls here. I think Tennessee is going to wind

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Speaker 1: up winning the game. I'll lay the three and a

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Speaker 1: half points Tennessee minus three and a half at home

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Speaker 1: against Vanderbilt to close out the regular season for Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: Now Arch Madness having some success betting Arch Madness. Drake

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Speaker 1: is catching six points from UIC. Some books are at

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Speaker 1: five and a half, some books are at six. We'll

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Speaker 1: see where exactly this number is going to close. But

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Speaker 1: let's talk about this because Drake had been awful heading

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Speaker 1: into Arch Madness. Awful. They had lost eight consecutive games.

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Speaker 1: They've won their last two, so they're two and eight

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Speaker 1: over their last ten. They're just three and seven ats

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Speaker 1: over their last ten, six and four to the over.

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Speaker 1: But against Belmont they pounded them one hundred and seventy nine.

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Speaker 1: They led by seven at the break and they extended

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Speaker 1: it and just hit shot after shot. Following up against

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Speaker 1: SIU in the first game they won sixty seven to

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Speaker 1: sixty three. First game under second game over here is

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Speaker 1: ui see. They get here by beating Indiana State seventy nine,

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Speaker 1: so sorry, beating Murray State rather ninety two to seventy nine.

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Speaker 1: Bouncing back after losing the last game of the regular

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Speaker 1: season to Indiana State seventy nine to sixty three. It's

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Speaker 1: a little interesting because on the road UIIC wasn't very good.

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Speaker 1: They were seven and eight this year on the road,

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Speaker 1: but we know Drake was bad everywhere except Drake in

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Speaker 1: the Valley Tournament becomes the first nine seed ever to

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Speaker 1: make it to the semi finals since they changed the bracket. Equally,

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Speaker 1: they've won nine consecutive games at Arch Madness. And it

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Speaker 1: doesn't really matter who is the coach for Drake. Remember

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Speaker 1: this is Ben McCollum last year. This is Eric Henderson,

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Speaker 1: whose team is fourteen and nineteen. Now on the year,

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Speaker 1: they were twelve and nineteen heading into the March into

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Speaker 1: the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Illinois Chicago. According to kempom,

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Speaker 1: this is going to be a six point win to

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Speaker 1: the number is six here. However, let's look at some

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Speaker 1: of these numbers. So is Drake going to be tired? Maybe,

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Speaker 1: But they play so well and they have so much confidence,

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Speaker 1: and it's the week end that means fans are going

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Speaker 1: to drive down. Drake is going to have fans in

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Speaker 1: the building. Drake Bulldog fans travel, so this is going

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Speaker 1: to be a fun atmosphere at Enterprise center two. UIC

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Speaker 1: has the rebounding advantage, yes, but this is where Drake

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Speaker 1: just plays team basketball. When they get into Scott into

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Speaker 1: the enterprise center, they just play better basketball. Both teams

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Speaker 1: don't shoot the free throw very well, which is definitely

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Speaker 1: a bit of a concerning factor when it comes to upsets.

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Speaker 1: In March, the free throw percentage for Drake two hundred

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Speaker 1: and twenty seconds. The free throw percentage for UIIC is

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Speaker 1: one hundred and ninety third, which is not great. But

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Speaker 1: oftentimes we're looking at offensive rebounds and we're looking at

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Speaker 1: the ability to turn the basketball over. Drake does not

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Speaker 1: really turn the basketball over. They're sixty third in turnover percentage.

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Speaker 1: UIC does force turnovers their thirtieth internaler percentage, but UIC's

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Speaker 1: offense they aren't good two hundred and sixty first in

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Speaker 1: two internal percentage, but Drake really doesn't force turnovers, the

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Speaker 1: three hundred and fifteenth in that category. Defensively, it really

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Speaker 1: might come down to whether or not UIC can hit shots,

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Speaker 1: because Drake is hitting everything in the building at the moment.

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Speaker 1: They're shooting awesome from the field, and if they keep

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Speaker 1: it going, they might win the game outright. But UIC

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Speaker 1: is two hundred and sixty third in effective field goal percentage.

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Speaker 1: There are one hundred and sixtieth in an adjusted offensive efficiency.

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Speaker 1: That's not great. They're two hundred and fifth in average

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Speaker 1: possession length, so they kind of are a methodical basketball team.

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Speaker 1: They get fifty three point five percent of their points

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Speaker 1: from inside the two point line. That's really heavy. Drake

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Speaker 1: gets thirty seven percent of their points from behind the

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Speaker 1: three point line. Drake makes threes. Drake can very well

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Speaker 1: win this game, and they made threes against Belmont. They

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Speaker 1: like the court. They've played two games, UIC's played one game.

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Speaker 1: Could there be a second half collapse yes? Could there

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Speaker 1: be some tired legs late in the game, yes. Is

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Speaker 1: it more logical that UIC wins the game game but

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Speaker 1: they do not cover. Yes, I think that's how this

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Speaker 1: game is going to go. I think the Flames find

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Speaker 1: a way to win the game late. But I'm taking

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Speaker 1: the points. Give me Drake Drake at plus six, maybe

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Speaker 1: even to win their tenth consecutive game at Arts Madness.

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Speaker 1: Not going to surprise me in the least if Drake

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Speaker 1: winds up winning this basketball game. Coming up here today

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Speaker 1: for the Missouri Valley conference tournaments against you, I see

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Speaker 1: to the SEC. We go with Auburn on the road

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Speaker 1: at Alabama. It's rivalry day, It's senior day. Alabama has

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Speaker 1: been kind of an up and down team when it

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Speaker 1: comes to the spread against the number, but against in

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Speaker 1: in term of totals, Alabama is fifteen thirteen and one

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Speaker 1: to the over. They're nine to seven and one to

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Speaker 1: the over in the SEC. Auburn is eighteen and twelve

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Speaker 1: to the over this year. They are nine and eight

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Speaker 1: to the over in the SEC, and we have the

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Speaker 1: last three games in four of the last five for

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Speaker 1: Auburn have gone over. Traditionally to headwise, this has been

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Speaker 1: an over series. Last ten games for Alabama and Auburn,

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Speaker 1: seven of them have gone over, including the game that

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Speaker 1: was played at Auburn back on February the seventh. The

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Speaker 1: total was one seventy five and a half and it

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Speaker 1: went over ninety six to ninety two. I expect a

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Speaker 1: very similar type of game coming up here today from

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Speaker 1: a tempo perspective. Alabama just lost on the road to

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Speaker 1: Georgia ninety eight to eighty eight. Now they come back

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Speaker 1: home to end the regular season before they go to

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Speaker 1: the SEC. Tournament. That game went over. It was one

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Speaker 1: seventy eight. It went over. I expect another game to

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Speaker 1: go over here. Although Alabama's last home game did go

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Speaker 1: under one hundred and seventy five, it was one seventy

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Speaker 1: six and a half, so I missed it by a

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Speaker 1: point and a half. The home game against Arkansas flew

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Speaker 1: over because it went to overtime. The game against South

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Speaker 1: Carolina went under eighty nine to seventy five. But I

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Speaker 1: think because Auburn plays with tempo and Auburn goes up

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Speaker 1: and down, Burn is a good matchup for Bama. Their

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Speaker 1: offense Alabama seventh in average possession length. Alabama is third

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Speaker 1: in offensive efficiency. They're thirty third in effective field goal percentage.

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Speaker 1: Auburn is two hundred and ninety seventh in effective field

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Speaker 1: goal percentage defense. They're three hundred and forty fifth in

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Speaker 1: three point defense. That's bad news against Bama. A team

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Speaker 1: that gets forty two percent of their offense from behind

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Speaker 1: the arc, that's not good. And then you've got a

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Speaker 1: thirty fifth in the country in two point percentage. Auburn's

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Speaker 1: defense is two hundred and twenty seventh. Bama hits their

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Speaker 1: free throws Auburn kind of does two. They're one hundred

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Speaker 1: and first. Auburn's offense is pretty good, eleventh on offense

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Speaker 1: for efficiency and one hundred and twenty sixth in effective

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Speaker 1: field goal percentage. They are not a great three point

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Speaker 1: shooting team, one hundred and eighty fifth in threes, but

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Speaker 1: they are fifty three point eight percent from twos. That's

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Speaker 1: ninety seventh. Auburn gets the majority of their points inside

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Speaker 1: the arc. Forty seven point two percent of their offense

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Speaker 1: comes from two point land, which isn't awful for Bama's defense,

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Speaker 1: They're forty ninth and two point percentage, but I do

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Speaker 1: think Auburn's gonna be able to score in this game,

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Speaker 1: and that will cause a back and forth battle between

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Speaker 1: Alabama and Auburn. I'm coming in and taking the over

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Speaker 1: one seventy six and a half for Alabama and Auburn

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Speaker 1: for the Iron Bowl. Basketball wise, for Alabama numbers eight

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Speaker 1: and a half, I don't mind it. It just feels

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Speaker 1: heavy for rivalry games. I just don't know if Bama

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Speaker 1: covers the eight and a half points, but I do

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Speaker 1: think the over is the best play over seventy one

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Speaker 1: seventy six and a half. Finally we go to UFC

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Speaker 1: three twenty six. I'm gonna do a two fight parlay.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with Cody Garbrant. He's a plus one forty

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Speaker 1: dog to long now long as a fighter who has

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Speaker 1: a five inch reach advantage over over Corey Garbrant. He's

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Speaker 1: also seven years younger than Corey Garbrant. But the problem

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Speaker 1: is Cody, sorry, not Corey. Cody Garbrett. Cody Garbrant is

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Speaker 1: a fighter who when I first moved a lot, he

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Speaker 1: was on the way up in Jeremy Stevens and Cody

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Speaker 1: Garbrandt were both brought into my studio here in Las

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Speaker 1: Vegas and I sat down. I talked at both of

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Speaker 1: them for about two hours, maybe hour and a half.

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Speaker 1: I have been a huge fan of Cody Garbrandt since

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Speaker 1: and I've followed his whole career, him and Jeremy Stevens.

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Speaker 1: If you don't know who Jeremy Stevens is, look at

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Speaker 1: the meme of co of Connor McGregor are saying, who

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Speaker 1: the bleep is that guy when he looks behind him

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Speaker 1: at a press conference. That's Jeremy Stevens. But Cody Garbrandt

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Speaker 1: is a guy who used to Date, the fighter that

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Speaker 1: everybody knows now because of her OnlyFans, and if you

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Speaker 1: don't know who I'm talking about, just google it. But

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Speaker 1: he's fought such a better caliber fighter like I don't

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Speaker 1: know if we know anything really about Long. Yes, he's

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Speaker 1: got the reach advantage, and yes, strikes landed per minute

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Speaker 1: five point twenty five up against two point eight eight

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Speaker 1: for Cody. That's scary. Where's the chin for Cody Garbrandt?

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Speaker 1: Younger fighter, more reach, but he lost his last fight

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Speaker 1: by decision. Every fight for Long has on either to

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Speaker 1: the cards or into the third round. Cody Garbrandt. I

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Speaker 1: mean you are talking about the fighters. He may not

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Speaker 1: have won a lot of the fights that he's been in,

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Speaker 1: but he's been in there with Figaredo, kay Kara France,

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Speaker 1: Rob font He's been in there with TJ. Dillashaw multiple times,

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Speaker 1: Dominic Cruz. He just fought some really good fighters and

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Speaker 1: I think that experience pays off here. It may be

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Speaker 1: a decision for Cody Garbrant, but I think this is

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Speaker 1: a good opportunity. Everyone's saying that Cody's washed up. I'll

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Speaker 1: take money line Cody Garbrant at plus one point forty

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Speaker 1: take a flyer with it, and you can just bet

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Speaker 1: that if you want, and just bet a one unit

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Speaker 1: on Cody Garbrandt if you would want. But I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: parlay it with the Max Holloway money line because I

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Speaker 1: do think Max can stop Charles Olivera. Du Bronx is amazing.

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Speaker 1: But I just think if you see how Iliotaporia knocked

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Speaker 1: out Olivera, I think Holloway can do very similar things

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Speaker 1: here and knock out Charles Olivera that was in the

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Speaker 1: first I don't think it's gonna be that fast, but

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Speaker 1: I do think it could be quick. I mean Max

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Speaker 1: could win the totals two and a half rounds heavily

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Speaker 1: juiced to the over. So maybe Max doesn't have the

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Speaker 1: same boxing and hand speed power that Iliot Taporia has.

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Speaker 1: Olivera beat Gamrot in his last fight to set up

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Speaker 1: this belt this fight, but like a lot of people

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Speaker 1: are sick and tired of the BMF belt and maybe

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Speaker 1: this fight does. The winner of this fight does fight

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Speaker 1: Connor McGregor for the White House for the main event.

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Speaker 1: Maybe that's possible. But Halloway's win over Dustin Porier the

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Speaker 1: five round decision, this fight could go to the cards.

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Speaker 1: Max Is lost to Ilia Taporia. He got knocked out

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Speaker 1: in the third round, just like Charles Lavera got knocked

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Speaker 1: out by Ilia Taporia. But Holloway beat Gae Chee hollow

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Speaker 1: Holloway beat Ir Vdriguez, Calvin Cader. He lost to Eligender

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Speaker 1: Volganowski two times, three times actually against Volganovsky, and that

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Speaker 1: really kind of derailed the championship stuff. After losing it

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Speaker 1: to t Poria. We're not gonna Sae Holloway with most

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Speaker 1: likely another fight for the belt, but he could be

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Speaker 1: the BMF belt holder, and Max Holloway could very well

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Speaker 1: be fighting Conna McGregor again, which would be crazy. He

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Speaker 1: fought Connin McGregor in Boston August seventeenth, twenty nineteen. I

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Speaker 1: was there for that fight. That was the first ever

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Speaker 1: UFC fight card I ever covered was Connor against Max Holloway.

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Speaker 1: If Connor gets to fight Max again for the belt

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Speaker 1: for the BMF belt at the White House, are you

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Speaker 1: kidding me? That'd be amazing. So I like Max Holloway.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna parlay that up with Cody Garbrandt, who's a

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Speaker 1: a bit of a shot, but it's a plus two

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Speaker 1: to fifty parlay. I'm taking it for a half a unit.

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Speaker 1: We're having a good week. Let's kind of do a

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Speaker 1: heat check here. Cody Garbrant money line parlayed with Holloway

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Speaker 1: money line at plus two fifty for a half a unit.

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Speaker 1: So three bets in college basketball Tennessee miles three and

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Speaker 1: a half against Vandy Drake plus six against University Illinois

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Speaker 1: Chicago in a game of arch madness in Alabama, Auburn

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Speaker 1: over one seventy six and a half for the sec

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Speaker 1: Iron Bowl version Holloway Garborant money line at plus two

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Speaker 1: point fifty minus Matt parolog You guys can follow me

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Speaker 1: because all my socials at sports Doc Matt every morning

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Speaker 1: wherever you guys get your power well, your podcasts, your parlays,

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Speaker 1: no parlays podcasts. It is the Daily Juice