1 00:00:00,440 --> 00:00:05,159 Speaker 1: Live from our nations. How do we reopen this economy? 2 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:08,400 Speaker 1: The latest on how this pandemic is impacting farmers. What 3 00:00:08,520 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: does this do from the United States relationship with China? 4 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:16,599 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound On, the insiders, the influencers, the insides. We're 5 00:00:16,640 --> 00:00:19,840 Speaker 1: responding to this crisis and manufacturers are stepping up like 6 00:00:19,960 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: never before. You're looking at seveny kenneddates for different duct teams. 7 00:00:23,560 --> 00:00:26,200 Speaker 1: How do we make sure a pandemic of this sale 8 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:30,920 Speaker 1: never happens again? This is Bloomberg Sound On with kevin'srelate 9 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:34,720 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg one and one oh five point seven f 10 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 1: m h D two. Reopening Eve. Reopening Eve in Washington, 11 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 1: d C. We're gonna check in with a reporter at 12 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:44,600 Speaker 1: the Baltimore Sun to get everyone up to speed on 13 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:48,199 Speaker 1: what they can and can't do, on what Mayor Bowser 14 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:52,479 Speaker 1: is calling social distancing light, and the latest on the 15 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 1: President's actions as it relates to UH, the whole UH 16 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen and executive orders on technology. And Calvin Schnore's 17 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:06,160 Speaker 1: senior economist at Navy, checks in to give us his 18 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 1: latest on UH the economy as well. We have a 19 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:13,759 Speaker 1: lot to get through. Plus twenty and senior citizen voters. Folks, 20 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:18,479 Speaker 1: Tomorrow things start to reopen. Things finally start to reopen 21 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 1: here in the d m V. Joining us on the 22 00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 1: telephone line, very appreciative of UH. This person's time. UH 23 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 1: is Luke Broadwater. He's a political reporter for the Baltimore Sun. 24 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 1: And let's talk about Maryland's continuing reopening. Governor Hogan has 25 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:38,639 Speaker 1: lifted some restrictions on outdoor dining, youth sports camps, pools, 26 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 1: and drive in movies. All right, tell us what we 27 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:46,399 Speaker 1: can do now, Luke, Well, you can. Uh. It really 28 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 1: depends on which county you're in. Uh. The Governor's orders 29 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:55,320 Speaker 1: set a sort of baseline of what various counties can 30 00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 1: go up to. So you can, if you're in a 31 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:01,720 Speaker 1: more rural county where there's not a ton of coronavirus cases. 32 00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 1: I think of sort of western Maryland where they're have 33 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 1: very few positive tests, you could do everything that the 34 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:11,240 Speaker 1: governor says, which is you can have outdoor dining starting 35 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:15,679 Speaker 1: at five pm Friday. You can go to drive in movies, 36 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 1: you can go to UH, you can start up summer 37 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 1: day camps again. You can go to the pool, you 38 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 1: can go to UM various things like that. Now where this, um, 39 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:30,119 Speaker 1: you know it gets tricky is that each county, though, 40 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 1: has the flexibility to go along with the governors um 41 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:37,639 Speaker 1: orders or not. So they can't open up more than 42 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:40,559 Speaker 1: what the governor has allowed, but they can be more restrictive. 43 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:43,720 Speaker 1: So what we're seeing in the d the area is 44 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:45,919 Speaker 1: because that's been the hardest hit part of the state, 45 00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 1: is they have been uh slower to reopen than Governor 46 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 1: Hogan has, typically about a week or two behind him. Um. 47 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 1: I know that because I gotta interrupt here because to 48 00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 1: be honest, it doesn't seem I mean why they're saying 49 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:02,120 Speaker 1: it's harder hit But why is that? Is it? Because 50 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:04,800 Speaker 1: is it really the numbers? Luke? And this is an 51 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 1: awkward question asked. Is it really the numbers or is 52 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,880 Speaker 1: it the political ideology of a Republican governor and a 53 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:16,000 Speaker 1: liberal mayor. Well, you know, I can't speak to people's 54 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:19,480 Speaker 1: personal motivations, but the numbers are worse in the in 55 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 1: the DC suburbs. If you look at Prince George's County 56 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 1: and you look at Montgomery County, those are the two 57 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 1: hardest hit parts of the state in terms of infection 58 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 1: rates and deaths. But of course, there are political implications 59 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:35,280 Speaker 1: from all of this. Um, you know, the governor has 60 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 1: been under a lot of pressure from the right, the 61 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 1: reopen protests to try to move him to open more quickly, 62 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 1: and so maybe he is more likely to hear those 63 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 1: people's concerns than somebody whose base of support comes from 64 00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 1: the other party, which, uh, you know, the Democratic Party 65 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 1: seems more concerned about the health of the health implications 66 00:03:56,480 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 1: of COVID nineteen than say, the Republican Party, So you 67 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 1: do up some sort of ideological split there. But again, 68 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 1: I I don't I can't speak to the motivations of 69 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 1: any of these leaders. They could very well be basing 70 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 1: this completely on the science, and I think it is 71 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:13,200 Speaker 1: legitimate to say that d C the suburbs haven't hit 72 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:16,279 Speaker 1: harder than the rest of Maryland. It's a it's a 73 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:19,560 Speaker 1: fascinating tension and it's really very much on full display. 74 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:22,400 Speaker 1: Luke Broadwaters on the phone. He is a reporter for 75 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:25,240 Speaker 1: the Baltimore Sun, a political reporter for the Baltimore Sun. 76 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:28,520 Speaker 1: What is the business community been saying to Governor Hogan. 77 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:33,440 Speaker 1: They want to reopen as quickly as possible, and they 78 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 1: wanted to reopen yesterday. Yeah, and you know, I hear 79 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 1: from a lot of business owners, small business owners, and 80 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 1: they've been happy with some things the governor has done, 81 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:46,320 Speaker 1: like uh, they very much liked it that he lifted 82 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:49,840 Speaker 1: restrictions on delivery of alcohol for instance, that something that 83 00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 1: has been the illegal for decades, all of a sudden 84 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 1: was now legal and that allowed a lifeline to bars 85 00:04:56,200 --> 00:05:00,560 Speaker 1: and restaurants. Um. But they you know, I think, you know, 86 00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:04,599 Speaker 1: in talking with these business owners, they do. I think 87 00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 1: the virus is real and a concern, and they're all 88 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 1: for wearing masks and social distancing, but they want to 89 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 1: see their businesses open as quickly as possible because we 90 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:18,120 Speaker 1: have you know, hundreds of thousands of marylanders and unemployment 91 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:21,360 Speaker 1: lines right now, and many of them are facing very 92 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 1: long waits and aren't getting their checks and are very frustrated. 93 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:28,720 Speaker 1: And it's causing you know, a lot of hardship when 94 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 1: a lot of people to see their businesses closed, to 95 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:34,559 Speaker 1: see them go out of work, their families sit around 96 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 1: waiting for the government assistance to come in, and it's 97 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:41,279 Speaker 1: it's its own crisis in addition to the to the 98 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 1: coronavirus crisis. Where do you think we are in terms 99 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 1: of one month from now and two months from now. 100 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:51,240 Speaker 1: UH in in the UH in terms of where this 101 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:56,719 Speaker 1: thing goes, UM, well it's always it's always risking to 102 00:05:56,800 --> 00:05:59,600 Speaker 1: make predictions. But it does look like in Maryland that 103 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 1: we are seeing declining hospitalizations, which is the metric that 104 00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:09,000 Speaker 1: the governor is watching most closely. And if that continues 105 00:06:09,080 --> 00:06:11,680 Speaker 1: as it is, UM, the governor has said he's going 106 00:06:11,760 --> 00:06:16,160 Speaker 1: to move to reopen even more businesses next and then 107 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:20,279 Speaker 1: eventually to the final phase, which would be basically returning 108 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 1: life to normal in Maryland. UM. That though depends a 109 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:30,880 Speaker 1: lot on whether this virus keeps two UH continues to dwindle. UM, 110 00:06:30,960 --> 00:06:34,120 Speaker 1: and there is some concern that as restrictions are lifted 111 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:37,719 Speaker 1: there could be another flare up. So UM, you know, 112 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 1: it's really really can't predict. But UM, right now, a 113 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 1: lot of people, including the governor, see at least positive 114 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:48,719 Speaker 1: size and the data enough to begin reopening. And I 115 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:52,440 Speaker 1: will say now that Kunty Executive Elric has had his 116 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:55,280 Speaker 1: press converse that all of the jurisdictions in Maryland are 117 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 1: at least taking some step towards reopening. There's no longer 118 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:02,080 Speaker 1: anyone who's saying we will not reopen anything. Yeah, it's 119 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:04,719 Speaker 1: I can't wait to see how Washington d C Reacts 120 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:08,279 Speaker 1: on this weekend as things are are slowly starting to 121 00:07:08,560 --> 00:07:11,960 Speaker 1: uh to reopen. My friend Damie and my friend Damian 122 00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:14,280 Speaker 1: at the place across the street from the Bloomberg Bureau 123 00:07:14,320 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 1: sent me a text today and said, uh at Bobby 124 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 1: Vans and said, you can sit outside tomorrow, keV you 125 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 1: can come down and sit outside the Buffalo chicken thing 126 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:25,880 Speaker 1: whoop on things that I love to eat, the spring rolls, 127 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 1: and only Bobby Vans has I missed them. It's been 128 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 1: like a million years since I got to sit outside 129 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 1: and eat somewhere. Luke broad Water a couple more questions 130 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:35,520 Speaker 1: before I let you go. He's a political reporter for 131 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 1: the Baltimore Son. He was part of the polk Uh 132 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 1: team that for reporting a couple of years ago. He's 133 00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 1: an absolute asom. We're so incredibly appreciative of his reporting 134 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:47,320 Speaker 1: and also that he made time for us tonight. Luke, 135 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:50,920 Speaker 1: there's this issue about the testing kits. Governor Hogan got 136 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 1: a lot of praise for getting so many testing kits 137 00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:58,880 Speaker 1: into Maryland. How are they being dispersed? So, yeah, this 138 00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:01,160 Speaker 1: is a real bit of a bit of concern for 139 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:05,400 Speaker 1: many county leaders. Um. The governor too much fanfare did 140 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 1: secure this five hundred thousand tests from from South Korea, 141 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:12,640 Speaker 1: UM and got a lot of national media praise for it. 142 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 1: He did say at the time, because I was at 143 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 1: that press confers and I asked them, because I know 144 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:19,520 Speaker 1: these tests are actually quite complicated. It's not enough to 145 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 1: just have a test. You've gotta have re agents, you 146 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:26,880 Speaker 1: gotta have swabs, you've got to have testing capacity, lab capacity. UM. 147 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 1: And I asked him, I said, are these ready to 148 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 1: go right now? And he said no, UM. But you 149 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:33,520 Speaker 1: know that was really no one else asked him that 150 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 1: for quite a while, and so he for about a 151 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 1: week he he went around pouting these things. And what 152 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 1: we've seen is, Um, most of them have not been 153 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:46,280 Speaker 1: put into use yet. The Governor's office hasn't given us 154 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:50,679 Speaker 1: given us a exact number. He says. They've gone out 155 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:54,199 Speaker 1: to the labs and as supplies come in, they are 156 00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:57,240 Speaker 1: using some of them, but we're not sure how many. 157 00:08:57,360 --> 00:09:00,199 Speaker 1: So even though this was a big coup for to 158 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 1: get this great amount of tests, it doesn't seem like 159 00:09:02,559 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 1: they're having a real impact just yet. Maybe they will 160 00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 1: in the future, but not just yet, all right, Luke Broadwater, 161 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:12,440 Speaker 1: political reporter for the Baltimore Son. Thank you, Luke very much. 162 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 1: Appreciate you coming on to talk about all the reopening 163 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:17,599 Speaker 1: in the d m V area. Coming up next, we 164 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:20,199 Speaker 1: talked to Fund twenty politics and the latest on the 165 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:24,160 Speaker 1: president's executive orders for Silicon Valley. I'm Kevin Sirelli, Chief 166 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 1: Watchington correspondent for Bloomberg TV and Radio, and you're listening 167 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:41,840 Speaker 1: to Bloomberg she Boshington Doors thought in for Bloomberg Television 168 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:44,480 Speaker 1: and for Bloomberg Radio Friday Eat folks, Time to Chalk, 169 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 1: Time to talk economic numbers. Joining us on the line 170 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:51,800 Speaker 1: now a friend of the program, Calvin Schnore, senior economists 171 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:54,319 Speaker 1: at her Calvin, how are you, buddy? Things are reopening tomorrow? 172 00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:57,360 Speaker 1: Are you happy? I'm doing alright. They're glad you back 173 00:09:57,360 --> 00:09:59,680 Speaker 1: on your show. What is the first thing you're gonna 174 00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:06,120 Speaker 1: do once they reopened? Stuff? You know, I've actually been 175 00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 1: pretty comfortable with the stay at home. I have a 176 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 1: friend who died, I have a brother who was hospitalized, 177 00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:14,160 Speaker 1: and I'm doing everything i can to maintain the health 178 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:17,880 Speaker 1: of people. So I'm so sorry. I'm so sorry to 179 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:20,360 Speaker 1: hear that and you know, that's that's you know, I mean, 180 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:23,320 Speaker 1: these are these socially distant things are so incredibly important, 181 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:27,280 Speaker 1: and you know, unfortunately it's we got to keep doing it. 182 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:29,199 Speaker 1: You know, even though things are reopening, we still got 183 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:31,360 Speaker 1: to wear the mask. We've still got to be safe 184 00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:33,720 Speaker 1: and everything. I I, you know, I'm sorry to hear that, 185 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:35,920 Speaker 1: but I'm glad to hear that that that's staying at 186 00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:38,120 Speaker 1: home has been has been positive for you and I 187 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:40,920 Speaker 1: that's uh, that's a good thing, all right. Today's economic 188 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:44,240 Speaker 1: numbers initial jobless claims two point one to three million, 189 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 1: durable goods orders fell seventeen point two percent, and the 190 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:53,839 Speaker 1: GDP revised estimate declined at a five percent And you 191 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 1: wal rate in Q one. What are your takeaways, Calvin, Yeah, 192 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:00,520 Speaker 1: we're getting a couple of mixed message is here and 193 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 1: the first is just reinforcing how here's an economic impact 194 00:11:04,320 --> 00:11:06,960 Speaker 1: this is having on workers and families across across the 195 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 1: whole country. Um. But these jobless numbers, even though at 196 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 1: two point one million is a huge number, but that's 197 00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:14,160 Speaker 1: a third of what it was six weeks ago, and 198 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 1: it probably is overstating the number of people who are 199 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:21,400 Speaker 1: actually having layoffs currently, because as we've seen, there are 200 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 1: a lot of states that were having a lot of 201 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:26,040 Speaker 1: trouble processing all the claims. There were delays, so some 202 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 1: of these are actually reflecting people who may have been 203 00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 1: laid off a couple of weeks ago. So the good 204 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:34,960 Speaker 1: news is the pace of layoffs really is slowed quite 205 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:37,200 Speaker 1: a bit. But also if you look at the number 206 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:41,200 Speaker 1: of people who are getting unemployment insurance, that declined three 207 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:44,800 Speaker 1: point nine million in the week through May sixteenth, and 208 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 1: so that means that there are fewer people who are 209 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:50,960 Speaker 1: actually getting benefits, which is probably some impact from the 210 00:11:51,160 --> 00:11:54,160 Speaker 1: p p P program that is getting employers to take 211 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 1: people back on the payroll. So so there's some signs 212 00:11:57,240 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 1: of better news ahead. The durable goods orders numbers, uh, 213 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 1: there's a huge decline, but two thirds of the drop 214 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:08,440 Speaker 1: was in transportation non de French aircraft and motor vehicles, 215 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 1: and it really has not spread into general business investment 216 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 1: as much as we feared a while ago. So that's 217 00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:16,720 Speaker 1: another sign that the cuts in the economy are not 218 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 1: as broad and deep as as you might have thought 219 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 1: just from looking at the jobs numbers. You know, I 220 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:23,120 Speaker 1: think that's I really want to just pick up on 221 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:24,480 Speaker 1: one thing. I want to rip up the script because 222 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:25,760 Speaker 1: I wanted to talk about something else. But you just 223 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:28,000 Speaker 1: said a sign of good things to come. I need 224 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:31,120 Speaker 1: to hear this right now personally. So tell me about 225 00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:34,119 Speaker 1: the optimism that you have or what made you optimistic 226 00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:38,840 Speaker 1: about today's apart give me some good news. Well, I 227 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:41,200 Speaker 1: was just mentioning in the durable goods report that we 228 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:44,040 Speaker 1: see it's just still concentrated in a few sector. The 229 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:47,360 Speaker 1: worst damage is in just a few sectors. There's damage everywhere. 230 00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 1: Don't don't know mistaking that. And you've seen a similar 231 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:52,959 Speaker 1: thing with the jobless planes. It's the front line industry 232 00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:57,960 Speaker 1: that the restaurants, the small stores, the retail. UH, construction manufactory. 233 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:00,199 Speaker 1: Now that's a pretty big part of the economy. It's 234 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:05,160 Speaker 1: certainly not the bulk of the economy. Those businesses shut down. UH, 235 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 1: it's been quiet in lockdown for a while, and they 236 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:11,360 Speaker 1: may be starting to open up again. UM. As these 237 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:14,760 Speaker 1: restrictions are easy. That means the job market could come 238 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:18,680 Speaker 1: back to life in June, probably more likely July. Alright, 239 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:20,440 Speaker 1: So Calvin Schnoor is on the line. He's a senior 240 00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 1: economist that nay read gonna read from the Bloomberg terminal 241 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:26,320 Speaker 1: for a minute. US stocks erased gains and ended lower 242 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:28,880 Speaker 1: after President Donald Trump said he old a press conference 243 00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 1: on Friday tomorrow to discuss China, potentially stoking tension between 244 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:36,360 Speaker 1: the world's two largest economies. The SMP five lost in 245 00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 1: advance of more than one percent on the president's announcements, 246 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 1: with investors speculating that the US will take action against 247 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:47,480 Speaker 1: China that could destabilize the global economy, although the precise 248 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:50,920 Speaker 1: agenda was unclear. How much are U S China relations 249 00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:56,640 Speaker 1: playing into this economic forecast? Calvin, You know, investors a 250 00:13:56,679 --> 00:13:59,760 Speaker 1: skinn issue about everything because there are so many uns 251 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:04,760 Speaker 1: our primary anxiety investors have a lot of anxiety. But 252 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:08,480 Speaker 1: there's nothing anxiety going on with COVID nineteen. Go ahead, Calvin, 253 00:14:08,480 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 1: I'll keep quiet now. But our primary concerns the virus 254 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:14,599 Speaker 1: and getting businesses back to work. Sure, China's China is 255 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:17,680 Speaker 1: an issue. It's it's a it's a lot smaller issue 256 00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 1: for the US economy than getting tens of millions of 257 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:24,280 Speaker 1: people back to work. Yeah. Well yeah, But in terms 258 00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:28,920 Speaker 1: of what do you think about the trade relations, especially 259 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:33,560 Speaker 1: with how trade because so much of US China is 260 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 1: related to to trade, especially in the in the UH 261 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:40,440 Speaker 1: central part of America. Do you think that could be 262 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 1: a potential UH issue of uncertainty for for investors? Well, 263 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:48,280 Speaker 1: this is a difficulty issue because it's not just traded 264 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:53,400 Speaker 1: zew politics and the administration is responding to China's moves 265 00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:58,000 Speaker 1: against Hong Kong. It's in support of democracy and the 266 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 1: liberties that Hong Kong has had. That's also another American value. 267 00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 1: We don't know how this whole thing is going to 268 00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 1: play out. You know, many people are hopeful that we're 269 00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 1: able to help protect Hong Kong without disrupting the economy, 270 00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:14,320 Speaker 1: but we're gonna have to wait and see. In all 271 00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:16,320 Speaker 1: of this all right, how do you think the Forecastle 272 00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:19,840 Speaker 1: likes for GDP next quarter? The second quarter is just 273 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 1: going to be at the bottom, dropping out, there's no 274 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:25,280 Speaker 1: doubt about that. We saw the first quarter was down 275 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:28,840 Speaker 1: five second quarters be much worse. But this morning report 276 00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 1: was a revision of what we saw last month. Shows 277 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 1: that a lot of the decline was in spending. This 278 00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:37,960 Speaker 1: just postponed in the first quarter. Nearly half the decline 279 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:43,400 Speaker 1: was from healthcare like canceled doctor's offices and Dennis office 280 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 1: business Those are going to be rescheduled. Another percentage point 281 00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:50,320 Speaker 1: was from durable goods like auto sales. Those purchases will 282 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:52,920 Speaker 1: take place later this year. Now, there's a lot of 283 00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:55,160 Speaker 1: damage here, but a lot of the decline in the 284 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 1: second quarter will also be made up over the coming quarters. 285 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 1: Is it hard for you to figure out the third 286 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:04,000 Speaker 1: quarter and the fourth quarter just given the uncertainty of 287 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 1: whether or not there's going to be a spike in 288 00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:09,400 Speaker 1: the fall, Yeah, there's This is a huge amount of uncertainty. 289 00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 1: But if the businesses are able to reopen and we 290 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:16,600 Speaker 1: don't have major flare ups in the virus, it's pretty 291 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:19,960 Speaker 1: strong bet that we will see some increase in the 292 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:22,880 Speaker 1: third quarter. It probably want offset all of the decline. 293 00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:24,920 Speaker 1: Things like restaurants are not going to be a full 294 00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:27,480 Speaker 1: strength for a long time. Travel is not gonna be 295 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 1: a bull strength, but some of these other things I mentioned. 296 00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:32,240 Speaker 1: Auto sales, you can go onto an auto lot where 297 00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:35,520 Speaker 1: your math, stand a guy away from the dealer and 298 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:37,520 Speaker 1: wipe your hands down. When you're done. People are gonna 299 00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:40,320 Speaker 1: be buying cars in the summer, all right. People are 300 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:42,440 Speaker 1: going to be buying cars in the summer. Calvin Schnore 301 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:45,440 Speaker 1: you're hard here first, senior economists and Navy thanks for 302 00:16:45,520 --> 00:16:47,920 Speaker 1: checking in with me. My friend will talk with you 303 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:51,520 Speaker 1: on the next round of economic indicators. Download the Bloomberg 304 00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:55,080 Speaker 1: Sound On podcast on Apple iTunes, at Bloomberg dot com, 305 00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:57,520 Speaker 1: or by downloading the Bloomberg Business app. You can also 306 00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:00,880 Speaker 1: find me on Radio dot com, I Heart Radio, and Spotify. 307 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:04,280 Speaker 1: We made it this far, folks, and things are finally, finally, 308 00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:09,560 Speaker 1: finally going to start reopening in the district starting tomorrow. 309 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:12,800 Speaker 1: Much more coming up next Politics time. Kevin Walling and 310 00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:16,400 Speaker 1: Eli y openly stick it keep it locked right here 311 00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:37,080 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg. Yea, this is Bloomberg Sound On with Kevin 312 00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:41,399 Speaker 1: Surreley on Bloomberg and one oh five point seven f 313 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:46,520 Speaker 1: m h D two. You're almost there. I promise tomorrow 314 00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:49,280 Speaker 1: it is Friday. I'm Kevin Sili, Chief Washington correspondent for 315 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Television and for Bloomberg Radio. And remember, folks, things open. 316 00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:57,879 Speaker 1: Things are finally going to open. Mayor Bowser, you did it. 317 00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:01,000 Speaker 1: You did it, Mayor Bowser. Joining us on the line 318 00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:06,880 Speaker 1: are two friends of the program, Kevin Walling, a democratic 319 00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 1: strategist at HD Creative Media, and Eli Yoakley, political reporter 320 00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 1: from Morgan Console, Kevin Mayer Bowser did it? What are 321 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 1: you gonna go to first this weekend? I'm gonna go 322 00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:19,199 Speaker 1: to ben Chilly Bowl based on your interview, Uh, the 323 00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:23,160 Speaker 1: founder of that. Yeah, well that's nice. I want to cheefeteak, 324 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 1: I wanna I want a hot dog, I want all 325 00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:27,960 Speaker 1: that kind of stuff. All right, Eli, what are you 326 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:31,760 Speaker 1: gonna do? We'll see. I'm just crazy to get outside 327 00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:34,200 Speaker 1: and maybe we're gonning some friends in public again. I'm 328 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:37,520 Speaker 1: ready to leave. Here's some breaking news. I'm gonna interrupt 329 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:40,119 Speaker 1: this my show. I'm ready to leave Washington, d C. 330 00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:45,000 Speaker 1: Were you going back to No, I'm ready to start 331 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:47,280 Speaker 1: somewhere new. Let's go to a different city, you know, 332 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 1: let's get the heck out of here. Eli, what about you? Well? 333 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:52,640 Speaker 1: You know mean, I can't wait to get back to Missouri. 334 00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:55,399 Speaker 1: And uh, I'll go back in July. My little brother 335 00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:58,160 Speaker 1: announced this week at his wedding is still on. So 336 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to getting home. When is the wedding 337 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:07,600 Speaker 1: July eleventh, the day after my birthday? So there the 338 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 1: pre Weday night party is my birthday party this year. Wow, 339 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:13,879 Speaker 1: that's awesome. Good for the for the yok plan. Okay, 340 00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:16,679 Speaker 1: so you got some new polls out for US seniors 341 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:19,040 Speaker 1: will make Donald Trump a one term president. That's the 342 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:22,720 Speaker 1: that's the headline from Kevin Mollings piece in the Hill. ELI. 343 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:25,080 Speaker 1: Before we get to that, tell us about the new polls. 344 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:28,840 Speaker 1: That morning, Console puts out, Well, we've had a pretty 345 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 1: pretty busy week. UM. There's been all going on. One 346 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:33,159 Speaker 1: of the bigger things we've focused on, UM in the 347 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:37,040 Speaker 1: last few weeks is the presidential contest, which has been 348 00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:42,479 Speaker 1: pretty flat UM throughout most of the coronavirus contest, the 349 00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:46,000 Speaker 1: coronavirus outbreak. Joe Biden has a pretty uh about a 350 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:48,280 Speaker 1: five point lead over Donald Trump for right now and 351 00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 1: changed the previous week. He's had an average of about 352 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:54,080 Speaker 1: a four point we lead nationwide. UM. One of the 353 00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:56,239 Speaker 1: things we assumed in on this week was UM, all 354 00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:59,040 Speaker 1: this talk about advice presidential candidate for him. I know 355 00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 1: he said at a donor call this week that he 356 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:03,719 Speaker 1: would announced one by the beginning of August, and so 357 00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 1: we tested some of the names. UM. Then it turned 358 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:09,600 Speaker 1: out of Lizabeth Warren is the strongest candidate UM. As 359 00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:14,120 Speaker 1: things SAM today about of voters say picking her would 360 00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:16,480 Speaker 1: make them more likely to vote for Joe Biden. Um, 361 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 1: that includes a pretty strong number of African American voters 362 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:23,720 Speaker 1: and Hispanic voters and those voters under the age of 363 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:26,239 Speaker 1: forty five, where Joe Bidens have cut up a tough time. 364 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:30,679 Speaker 1: I mean, that was the thrust of the Bernie Sanders um, 365 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:33,800 Speaker 1: the Bernie Sanders coalition. Um. You know, Amy COVID Church 366 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:35,879 Speaker 1: is a little stronger with his older voters. But but 367 00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:40,440 Speaker 1: right now, Donald Joe Biden has a pretty good crip 368 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:43,840 Speaker 1: on those older voters, all right, Ken, you talk about 369 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,400 Speaker 1: he took us right there, Eli Oakley with senior citizens, 370 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,920 Speaker 1: you right in the hill about the senior citizen vote. 371 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,280 Speaker 1: Why is this so important and why is Biden playing 372 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:54,440 Speaker 1: so strongly right now with the older voters. Yeah, it's 373 00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:56,719 Speaker 1: been fascinating to watch Keth Uh and I actually I've 374 00:20:56,760 --> 00:20:58,520 Speaker 1: been using a lot of the data from Horn Console. 375 00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 1: They've done a great job in terms of track being 376 00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:03,760 Speaker 1: the president's standing with regards to the to the virus response. 377 00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:07,199 Speaker 1: You know, back in mid March, he actually had majority 378 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 1: support among older Americans with regards to the response to 379 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:15,520 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen, the coronavirus. But we've seen a twenty point 380 00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 1: drop among older Americans over sixty five, according Morning consult 381 00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:23,560 Speaker 1: in response to what the Trump administration is doing with 382 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:26,639 Speaker 1: regards to this pandemic. Now he stands at the lowest 383 00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:30,359 Speaker 1: point next to millennial voters with regards to coronavirus. And 384 00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:32,520 Speaker 1: and of course why it's important, Kevin, It's a great 385 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:35,120 Speaker 1: question to ask, is we know seniors turn out to vote. 386 00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:37,640 Speaker 1: They turn out in every primary election, every general election. 387 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,040 Speaker 1: That's a group of people that you don't want to 388 00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 1: take off before a general election in less than five months. 389 00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:45,960 Speaker 1: So he's got some work to do to get those 390 00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:47,840 Speaker 1: folks back. Yeah, you know, I think this is an 391 00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:50,880 Speaker 1: interesting point, right because the senior citizen issue is so 392 00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 1: incredibly links to COVID nineteen and especially how different states 393 00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:58,199 Speaker 1: have been handling it. I mean, based upon conversations that 394 00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:00,440 Speaker 1: I have in media reports that are out there, this 395 00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:05,600 Speaker 1: is also a deeply localized issue. I think this election, 396 00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:09,400 Speaker 1: especially for senior citizens, is going to be a deeply 397 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:13,720 Speaker 1: deeply localized issue. And here's why. The nursing homes per 398 00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:19,440 Speaker 1: capita in counties across the country, in parts of Ohio, Michigan, 399 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:24,760 Speaker 1: and Pennsylvania, for example, some battleground states, how local officials 400 00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:30,439 Speaker 1: and their party's allegiance handles those nursing homes could ultimately 401 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:34,280 Speaker 1: tip the scales in favor for Biden or for Trump. 402 00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:36,280 Speaker 1: When you look at the numbers, now that we know 403 00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:39,280 Speaker 1: where President Trump is playing bad in the polesy lie, 404 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:43,359 Speaker 1: where does the president have support and strong support and 405 00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:47,800 Speaker 1: glimmers of hope for his reelection? I mean the strength 406 00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:49,560 Speaker 1: of Donald Trump is his base. I mean, that's why 407 00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:53,040 Speaker 1: you see him leaning into some of these Republican arguments. 408 00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:56,040 Speaker 1: When we saw this with the Twitter thing today for example, 409 00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:59,320 Speaker 1: I mean, it's content stuff that he's he's delving into 410 00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:02,000 Speaker 1: is a big motivator. We've seen this with his movement 411 00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 1: towards China. We've you know, blame among most folks as 412 00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:10,920 Speaker 1: flatlined for China and the coronavirus pandemic, but among Republicans 413 00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:14,240 Speaker 1: it's certainly surge. Um. I mean he was doing this before, 414 00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:15,520 Speaker 1: by the way. I mean that was that was the 415 00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:19,800 Speaker 1: whole thing with immigration was based first play, especially in 416 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,720 Speaker 1: an election when we've seen this in the past. When um, 417 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:25,280 Speaker 1: a president is as unpopular as he is and the 418 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:29,520 Speaker 1: candidate is unpopular as that, the base play is the 419 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:32,400 Speaker 1: move to fire up your own supporters and to try 420 00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,600 Speaker 1: to try to diminish turn out by by the others. 421 00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:38,400 Speaker 1: You know, it's it's a really interesting point what you're 422 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:42,720 Speaker 1: hitting at comparing China to the immigration issue. For I 423 00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:44,919 Speaker 1: think that's really smart because I think, based upon the 424 00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:48,160 Speaker 1: conversations that I have with Trump World, it's gonna be reopened, 425 00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:50,959 Speaker 1: the economy, closed, the borders, and I think that's going 426 00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:52,600 Speaker 1: to be some of the message. And and and to 427 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:55,240 Speaker 1: you know, you note Wisconsin and how the president has 428 00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,800 Speaker 1: been playing into local politics there. I think that's another 429 00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,880 Speaker 1: smart point because that is such a rucial state for 430 00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:04,240 Speaker 1: the president if he wants to win a second term. Um, 431 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:12,359 Speaker 1: Kevin Walling Eli mentioned China. Where is Biden World on China? Yeah, so, um, 432 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 1: you're seeing. You know, Biden obviously took a tough stand 433 00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,000 Speaker 1: as we remember, remember when we actually had in person 434 00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:22,199 Speaker 1: debates back in December and January of last year and 435 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:24,840 Speaker 1: earlier this year, you know, and and they're out there counting, 436 00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:26,840 Speaker 1: you know that the Vice president said don't take the 437 00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,240 Speaker 1: China's work for any of that. In that debate, he 438 00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:31,840 Speaker 1: had that otbed that they like to talk about from 439 00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:37,520 Speaker 1: USA today from January saying we need independent verifiers in China. 440 00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:39,560 Speaker 1: Um so, I think you know that much as much 441 00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:42,200 Speaker 1: as Trump wants to raise and depight the Zeli points out, 442 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:44,159 Speaker 1: and it's a you could be a winning strategy for 443 00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:47,160 Speaker 1: them and gets pressure off of Trump and his response. 444 00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:49,680 Speaker 1: You know, the proof is in the pudding in terms 445 00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:52,160 Speaker 1: of the comparison that that the Biden campaign and doing 446 00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:56,679 Speaker 1: and advertising in those states that you mentioned, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, 447 00:24:56,800 --> 00:25:01,280 Speaker 1: some others have around China and putting Trump's own words 448 00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:05,359 Speaker 1: praising the regime, praising China's transparency with regards to the 449 00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,640 Speaker 1: coronavirus up against what Joe Biden was saying during those 450 00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:13,000 Speaker 1: same time point in terms of the campaign. Wait, do 451 00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:15,800 Speaker 1: you think that that that they're going to say Joe 452 00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:19,720 Speaker 1: Biden in real time? Because even Biden himself has said 453 00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:24,400 Speaker 1: that he doesn't blame President Trump for the virus. He 454 00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:27,280 Speaker 1: he has said, I don't. Of course, he said that 455 00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,360 Speaker 1: there's to be no blame in terms of the virus itself, 456 00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:33,399 Speaker 1: but certainly he's calling into question the response, and rightly so, 457 00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,080 Speaker 1: because of what we're seeing with these numbers with regards 458 00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:39,160 Speaker 1: to the Trump Administration's response to the pandemic. Everyone says 459 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,200 Speaker 1: this is an act of God. And the talking point 460 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,960 Speaker 1: that the Republicans are using now that this pandemic is 461 00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:45,840 Speaker 1: an act of God. But it's a question of how 462 00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:47,720 Speaker 1: we respond to act of God's right. This is what 463 00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:50,760 Speaker 1: sunk you know, George W. Bush and the in the 464 00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:53,560 Speaker 1: last years of his administration with regards to Katrina. Katrina 465 00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:56,359 Speaker 1: was an active but it was the fault of the 466 00:25:56,359 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 1: Bush administration's response to Katrina that sank his numbers, setting 467 00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:02,080 Speaker 1: into two thousand and eight that he gave his Barack Obama. 468 00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:04,080 Speaker 1: So I think the Biding campaign is going to make 469 00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:06,960 Speaker 1: the same argument here that yes, it's something you know 470 00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:09,640 Speaker 1: and heard of, this kind of pandemic, but the response 471 00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:13,800 Speaker 1: Alan is completely problematic. Five months out from the election, Eliokally, 472 00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:16,320 Speaker 1: political reporter for The Morning Council, How, how are the 473 00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:18,600 Speaker 1: polls in terms of where Biden and Trump stand on 474 00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:23,840 Speaker 1: the economy? Um, Donald Trump saws an advantage on it. Um. 475 00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:26,560 Speaker 1: If the election is fought on the economy today, that's 476 00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:30,040 Speaker 1: a strong position for for Donald Trump. UM. We've seen 477 00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:33,520 Speaker 1: in recent weeks and movement towards Joe Biden whenever voters 478 00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:37,439 Speaker 1: are asked who they trust more to handle the coronavirus spread. Um, 479 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:39,080 Speaker 1: if you if you think about a second wave and 480 00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:41,800 Speaker 1: this popping back up in the fall, and this elevating 481 00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:44,600 Speaker 1: in the minds of voters, that might be something to 482 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:47,000 Speaker 1: keep in mind. Um, it's the point you guys were 483 00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:50,560 Speaker 1: talking about a second ago. Um, you know. My understanding 484 00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:52,359 Speaker 1: of how Democrats have been handling this, We've seen it 485 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:54,720 Speaker 1: and some of the messaging coming out of Priorities USA, 486 00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:58,439 Speaker 1: something big money Democratic groups is sort of a calendar 487 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:02,800 Speaker 1: and a camera approach to Trump's handling of coronavirus, almost 488 00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:06,159 Speaker 1: blaming him for the original sin early in Susandan in 489 00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:09,399 Speaker 1: twenty rather than blaming him for the outbreak itself. And 490 00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:11,600 Speaker 1: that's sort of what Joe Biden has been leaning into 491 00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:15,840 Speaker 1: in recent days. Yeah, you know, gentlemen, sticking around, We 492 00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:18,479 Speaker 1: got much more to talk about, Kevin Walling, Eli Yoakley, 493 00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:21,280 Speaker 1: We got more to talk about coming up next. Download 494 00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:23,440 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg sign On podcast on Appali Chains and Bloomberg 495 00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,080 Speaker 1: dot Com, or by downloading the Bloomberg Business app. You 496 00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:26,720 Speaker 1: can also find me on Radio dot com, I Heart 497 00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:38,600 Speaker 1: Radio and Spotify. Kevin Sirelli, you're listening to Bloomberg. This 498 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:44,119 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg sound On with Kevin Surrele on Bloomberg and 499 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,400 Speaker 1: one oh five point seven f m h D two 500 00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,639 Speaker 1: Breaking news. President Trump has just released the text of 501 00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:53,679 Speaker 1: his White House Social Media Executive Order just within the 502 00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:58,240 Speaker 1: last several minutes. The bottom line takeaway top line takeaways 503 00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:01,280 Speaker 1: are that the President is in structing his agencies to 504 00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:06,520 Speaker 1: compile additional reports to look at how big tech Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, 505 00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:10,320 Speaker 1: Google how they are dealing with freedom of speech. The 506 00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:14,800 Speaker 1: executive order also UH points out China UH and notes 507 00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:18,199 Speaker 1: several different aspects of China and would allow for the 508 00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:22,000 Speaker 1: agencies UH to the FTC and other agencies the FCC 509 00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 1: to look at advertising spending from China on these social 510 00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 1: media platforms. In one aspect of the executive Order, the 511 00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:40,280 Speaker 1: president rights quote several online platforms are profiting from and 512 00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:46,040 Speaker 1: promoting the aggression and disinformation spread by foreign governments like China. 513 00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:51,240 Speaker 1: One United One United States company, for example, created a 514 00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:54,600 Speaker 1: search engine for the Chinese Communist Party that would have 515 00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:59,680 Speaker 1: blacklisted searches for human rights, hit data unfavorable to the 516 00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:05,000 Speaker 1: China needs Communist Party, and tracked users determined appropriate for surveillance. 517 00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:09,200 Speaker 1: It also established research partnerships in China that provide direct 518 00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:13,320 Speaker 1: benefits to the Chinese military. So the President releasing his 519 00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:18,440 Speaker 1: executive order with regards to tech companies, and the President 520 00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:21,280 Speaker 1: is poised to have a press conference tomorrow on Friday 521 00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:26,320 Speaker 1: on on China itself. Again he is noting this, uh 522 00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:31,160 Speaker 1: in um his executive order. I do want to bring 523 00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:35,160 Speaker 1: you a comment from a jet pie, A jet pie 524 00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:38,600 Speaker 1: of course, uh, the chairman of the FCC, who says 525 00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:41,760 Speaker 1: in a statement quote, this debate is an important one. 526 00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:46,440 Speaker 1: The Federal Communications Commission will carefully review any petition for 527 00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:49,719 Speaker 1: rulemaking file by the Department of Commerce. Obviously Commerce Department 528 00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:53,680 Speaker 1: wrapped up in this as well. Okay, I'm Kevin Cirilli, 529 00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:57,280 Speaker 1: chief Washington correspondent for Boomberg Television and for Bloomberg Radio. 530 00:29:57,360 --> 00:30:01,320 Speaker 1: Earlier today, Uh, we had that breaking new so earlier today, 531 00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:06,800 Speaker 1: my colleague David Weston spoke with New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy, 532 00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:08,840 Speaker 1: and I want to play for you that interview. It 533 00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:12,280 Speaker 1: was a great interview, and unfortunately, because of the breaking news, 534 00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:14,640 Speaker 1: we had to let go Kevin Wahling and Eli Yoakley 535 00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:16,360 Speaker 1: of the Morning Console. They'll be back there and we'll 536 00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:20,160 Speaker 1: talk more. Um. But anyway, here's the new Jersey Governor 537 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:23,880 Speaker 1: Phil Murphy and David Weston interview. So give us a 538 00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:26,480 Speaker 1: sense of those numbers, if you would. How much of 539 00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:28,560 Speaker 1: that is just filling a hole, and how big is 540 00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:30,680 Speaker 1: that whole because you've lost a lot of revenue and 541 00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:33,240 Speaker 1: had increased costs, And how much is really you need 542 00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:36,240 Speaker 1: to reinvest or to get things going. Yeah, this is 543 00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:37,840 Speaker 1: all about let me give you a couple of numbers. 544 00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:40,200 Speaker 1: We announced the budget at the end of last week 545 00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:42,960 Speaker 1: for the next four months, so this is we extended 546 00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:46,200 Speaker 1: our fiscal year to September thirty, so we're talking about 547 00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:48,640 Speaker 1: four months in a few days. We had to cut 548 00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:52,920 Speaker 1: or defer over well over five billion dollars of expenses. 549 00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:56,960 Speaker 1: Or put it differently, we said the revenue loss as 550 00:30:57,000 --> 00:31:00,040 Speaker 1: best we could tell from June of two thousand and 551 00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:07,320 Speaker 1: twenty until June two ten billion dollars um. This is 552 00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:10,680 Speaker 1: the difference between But there's a certain myth out there. Well, 553 00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:13,520 Speaker 1: we're just gonna help you all because you you hadn't 554 00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:17,440 Speaker 1: managed your legacy realities, you're outstanding and deadedness, or your 555 00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:21,440 Speaker 1: structural deficits or your pension obligations. Uh, we we were 556 00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,440 Speaker 1: doing just fine with that. We were It's a long slog, 557 00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:26,760 Speaker 1: but we were, we were making a lot of progress. 558 00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:31,320 Speaker 1: This is about keeping firefighters, police, e m s, healthcare workers, 559 00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:36,040 Speaker 1: educators employed. Literally, the consequence or the alternative, I should say, 560 00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:39,320 Speaker 1: to not getting that funding is a whole lot of layoffs. 561 00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:41,880 Speaker 1: We think as much as two hundred thousand more at 562 00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:45,200 Speaker 1: the state level alone in New Jersey, Boy, And what 563 00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:48,320 Speaker 1: does that do to services in the state. It got them, 564 00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:51,520 Speaker 1: It would got them at the very moment when we 565 00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:55,360 Speaker 1: could least afford the services being got at. Our residents 566 00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:59,360 Speaker 1: need those workers more than ever, literally more than ever before. 567 00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:02,800 Speaker 1: It's it's unfathomable, which is why the I think the 568 00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:05,880 Speaker 1: case is so compelling for that federal cash assistance. Are 569 00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:08,080 Speaker 1: there ways to make up some of the revenue short 570 00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:09,960 Speaker 1: called in other ways? I know you've increased tolls, but 571 00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:12,360 Speaker 1: I think that was specifically to do some roadwork. But 572 00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:15,680 Speaker 1: other tolls or license fees, taxes that you could get 573 00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:19,960 Speaker 1: some more revenue, perhaps, David, But I do mean this, 574 00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:22,640 Speaker 1: the whole is so significant from this, and it's not 575 00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:25,240 Speaker 1: just New Jersey. I don't think there's any amount of 576 00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:28,320 Speaker 1: cuts or any amount of taxes that comes close to 577 00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:32,719 Speaker 1: filming Ahola and we're already a state that is, you know, 578 00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:35,320 Speaker 1: not not the cheapest place to live in America. People 579 00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:37,920 Speaker 1: come here to raise a family. We have the number 580 00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:42,080 Speaker 1: one public education system in America, the best location of 581 00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:47,320 Speaker 1: any state. We live on talent and location. Um. We 582 00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:49,840 Speaker 1: need This is one of these moments where the federal 583 00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:53,840 Speaker 1: government plays that existential role that no no one else 584 00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:56,240 Speaker 1: could play, and we need that role to be played 585 00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:59,480 Speaker 1: right now to its maximum. What about some infrastructure spend. 586 00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:03,040 Speaker 1: You've heard your your brother Andrew Cuomo across the way 587 00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:06,400 Speaker 1: and New York saying let's advance some of the infrastructures, 588 00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:09,920 Speaker 1: and you love that. By tunnel is something the Governor 589 00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:12,479 Speaker 1: Cuomo and I have been pounding a way on. We 590 00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:15,800 Speaker 1: think it's a game changer. It's a huge This is 591 00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:18,680 Speaker 1: building new tunnels under the Hudson River. The current ones 592 00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:22,600 Speaker 1: were built. It's a new bridge on our side. It's 593 00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:26,920 Speaker 1: it's reimagining Penn Station on the New York side. That's 594 00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:30,000 Speaker 1: a great example. Good good news is the Trump administration 595 00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:35,480 Speaker 1: just forwarded ninety million dollars on the New Jersey side 596 00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:39,959 Speaker 1: of that. But infrastructure absolutely is a potential game changer. 597 00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:43,680 Speaker 1: Big employees, a lot of folks were proud Union state. 598 00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:47,840 Speaker 1: That's a good thing. Uh, we'll we'll take that, uh 599 00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:51,920 Speaker 1: absolutely as soon as possible. Well, President Trump has said 600 00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:53,680 Speaker 1: some nice things about you, despite the fact that you 601 00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:55,680 Speaker 1: may be from opposite side of the aisle. Have you 602 00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:58,040 Speaker 1: talked to about this you Have you got any encouragement 603 00:33:58,040 --> 00:33:59,920 Speaker 1: from President Trump that actually that's a good idea because 604 00:33:59,920 --> 00:34:02,880 Speaker 1: he said in the best he wants infrastructure in general. Yeah. 605 00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,440 Speaker 1: I mean we've we've we speak pretty regularly, and we've 606 00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:10,200 Speaker 1: spoken mostly about the obviously this pandemic of late, but 607 00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:12,759 Speaker 1: we've absolutely spoken with him and his team up and 608 00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:19,319 Speaker 1: down Secretary Transportation. Uh, no question. Uh, infrastructure is a 609 00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:21,760 Speaker 1: is A is a I wouldn't say a magic bullet, 610 00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:25,160 Speaker 1: but it's one of those levers. Listen, FDR pulled pulled 611 00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:28,440 Speaker 1: that lever in the thirties for a reason. Uh. And 612 00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:30,360 Speaker 1: by the way, it's the other great thing is you know, 613 00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:33,920 Speaker 1: not only get economic and activity and employment in the 614 00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:37,120 Speaker 1: here and now. The great thing about infrastructure is it's 615 00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:41,920 Speaker 1: there fifty years from now. In future generations benefit benefit 616 00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:44,440 Speaker 1: from it. It's not a wasting asset. Uh. So I 617 00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:46,839 Speaker 1: think there's a lot of potential. Without question, you can 618 00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:48,959 Speaker 1: talk about GDP growth. That's a quick way to get it. Actually, 619 00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:51,640 Speaker 1: if you build up your infrastructure, is a practically better Finally, 620 00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:54,879 Speaker 1: give us a sense out over the horizon. What sort 621 00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:57,160 Speaker 1: of changes do you anticipate because of this pandemic for 622 00:34:57,320 --> 00:34:59,880 Speaker 1: New Jersey? And I'll give you an example. Uh, do 623 00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:03,080 Speaker 1: you think that people after this is over whatever that means, 624 00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:06,600 Speaker 1: will continue to commute in daily into Manhattan or meant 625 00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:10,200 Speaker 1: that change some of those patterns. Yeah, it's a great question, 626 00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:11,719 Speaker 1: and I don't know that any of us know the 627 00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:13,719 Speaker 1: answer to that, But my guess is that we've been 628 00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:18,640 Speaker 1: changed permanently from the little but important stuff like social 629 00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:22,319 Speaker 1: distancing and wearing face coverings to the bigger things. You know, 630 00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:26,160 Speaker 1: We've we've got to Restarted Recovery Commission that uh, that 631 00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:30,640 Speaker 1: I announced a few weeks ago with some really incredible 632 00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:33,840 Speaker 1: wise women and men. Shirley Tilman, former president of Princeton, 633 00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:37,040 Speaker 1: is a co chair. Ken Fraser, CEO of merk, is 634 00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:40,720 Speaker 1: a co chair. Ben Bernankei, former chair of the Federal Reserve. 635 00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:43,759 Speaker 1: These are the sorts of questions they're wrestling with with us. 636 00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:47,880 Speaker 1: We've got about twenty five or of our workforce that 637 00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:51,520 Speaker 1: commutes uh to where they're going, and could if they 638 00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:54,200 Speaker 1: choose to stay at home, and most of them have 639 00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:57,960 Speaker 1: done just that. I think there's a huge potential shift 640 00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:00,480 Speaker 1: in that you've got a whole other group, but folks 641 00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,279 Speaker 1: who have no choice but to be close to other 642 00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:06,520 Speaker 1: co workers or to the customer. I frankly think that 643 00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:09,879 Speaker 1: experience will also change. But I think we're gonna look 644 00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,200 Speaker 1: back five or ten years from now. I know this 645 00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:13,960 Speaker 1: is trite and people say it, but I think it's 646 00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:16,600 Speaker 1: I think it's real. Just as we did and you 647 00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:18,799 Speaker 1: were in the thick of nine eleven, Uh, in your 648 00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:21,439 Speaker 1: prior life, We're gonna look back five or ten years 649 00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:23,560 Speaker 1: from now as we did five or ten years after 650 00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:27,399 Speaker 1: nine eleven, and things that we maybe had never imagined. Uh, 651 00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:29,920 Speaker 1: we're part of our lives, and we took them as 652 00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:32,120 Speaker 1: a natural part of our life. I think the same 653 00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:35,080 Speaker 1: thing will be true here. That was David Weston speaking 654 00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:40,360 Speaker 1: with the new Jersey Governor Murphy earlier today on Bloomberg Television. Tomorrow, 655 00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:43,239 Speaker 1: Mary and Williamson joins us she's gonna check in and 656 00:36:43,239 --> 00:36:44,799 Speaker 1: give us an update on what she's been up to 657 00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:48,840 Speaker 1: in progressive politics. I'm Kevin Cirelli Chief Washington correspondent for 658 00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:52,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg TV of Bloomberg Radio. Things are reopening, folks. Keep positive, 659 00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:56,160 Speaker 1: keep strong, keep in the light. Thanks for listening to 660 00:36:56,160 --> 00:37:03,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg in the y