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Speaker 2: Joining us now from the sunny clines of his Aruba,
Speaker 2: his Dutch Caribbean Urie Timer, who grew up in the
Speaker 2: Caribbean and of course iconic at Fidelity Investments, Urine, I've
Speaker 2: got to get to your brilliant work on LinkedIn, folks.
Speaker 2: Just simply follow Urine Timer on LinkedIn. While the nifty
Speaker 2: to fifty remains far from evaluation extremes, here's where we are.
Speaker 2: How extreme are we right now? Uri and Timmer?
Speaker 3: So the nifty fifty good morning, by the way. So
Speaker 3: the top fifty companies which in you know, years, past,
Speaker 3: decades past, have had occasional unsustainable valuation moves. So the
Speaker 3: original nifty to fifty in the early seventies, and then
Speaker 3: of course what we used to call the Jenus twenty
Speaker 3: back in the late nineties, and at the peaks those
Speaker 3: stocks would trade at two x the pe of the
Speaker 3: bottom four fifty Today it is nowhere near there. It's
Speaker 3: about twenty five thirty percent. But if you take just
Speaker 3: the mag seven, of course, which are the booster children
Speaker 3: of the mega growers, they're trading at about a thirty
Speaker 3: eight pe, whereas the bottom four ninety three in the
Speaker 3: S ANDP are trading at about twenty two. So there
Speaker 3: we are getting closer to sort of historical extremes. But
Speaker 3: having said that, you look at the earning squiggles and
Speaker 3: I get them from Bloomberg. You look at those sort
Speaker 3: of next twelve month numbers, next twenty four months number.
Speaker 3: They are still not only rising but accelerating, so you
Speaker 3: get both sequential improved moquents from one calendar year to
Speaker 3: the next in the estimates, And those estimates themselves are
Speaker 3: rising rapidly, more rapidly than the market in general. So
Speaker 3: until they lose that fundamental support from rising earning estimates,
Speaker 3: which are known to be a proven driver for future returns,
Speaker 3: I think these valuations can still be sustained.
Speaker 2: And David to me, the delta announcement what four or
Speaker 2: five days ago was extraordinary. How they just blew it
Speaker 2: out and they just killed it.
Speaker 4: You're in I look at what I'm going to keep
Speaker 4: hammering on this this morning for the lack of breadth
Speaker 4: in the market, and I wonder if what's old is
Speaker 4: new again kind of looking back at two thousand and three,
Speaker 4: parts of tw twenty twenty three, parts of twenty twenty four,
Speaker 4: how much is that weighing on you, just sort of
Speaker 4: the increasing narrowness of this market.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a great observation. And I was really taken
Speaker 3: aback in December by how quickly the breath in the
Speaker 3: market sort of evaporated, right, So just to dial the
Speaker 3: clock back in twenty twenty, So twenty two October we
Speaker 3: had the cyclical bull market. Begin twenty twenty three was
Speaker 3: a very good year for the SMP, but if you
Speaker 3: were not in the MAC seven, you were not feeling
Speaker 3: the joy because there was no participation from anything else,
Speaker 3: even though the S and P went up, you know,
Speaker 3: over twenty percent. Then in then in late twenty three,
Speaker 3: when the Fed pivoted and the Treasury kind of did
Speaker 3: its debt management, you know, going away from long dated
Speaker 3: stuff to T bills, the market really broadened. And throughout
Speaker 3: most of twenty twenty four, you know, seventy five eighty
Speaker 3: percent of stocks were in up trends above their two
Speaker 3: in a day moving average, even though they could not
Speaker 3: quite compete with the Max seven, but you did have
Speaker 3: a broad market, a bullish broadening. Now we're back to
Speaker 3: like fifty to fifty five percent above their two inundred
Speaker 3: day and as of two days ago, only about a
Speaker 3: quarter of the stock were above their fifty day moving average,
Speaker 3: and so that's not good to see, and it kind
Speaker 3: of brings us back to the twenty twenty three environment.
Speaker 3: I hope it changes because the earnings growth is there
Speaker 3: and it is relatively broad based. You mentioned the Delta news.
Speaker 3: That's case in point, and it's not like the other
Speaker 3: stocks in the S and P are not doing anything.
Speaker 3: It's just that they can't really light a candle to
Speaker 3: the mag seven because they are so far out in front.
Speaker 4: A novice like me once some guidance from a pro
Speaker 4: like you. How much are you watching the ten year
Speaker 4: and amidst all of the anxiety and adjucta surrounding it
Speaker 4: moving toward five percent? How much does that matter? How
Speaker 4: much is that merely a psychological threshold or is it
Speaker 4: something that portends some kind of change in market sentiment
Speaker 4: and where things are going?
Speaker 3: It matters a great deal. So when you think about
Speaker 3: equity valuation right discounted cash flow model, you got earnings
Speaker 3: growth in the numerator, the cost of capital in the denominator,
Speaker 3: and the new luminator. The numerator is more powerful.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 3: If you get good earnings growth, the market can withstand
Speaker 3: changes in interest rates. But you know a few years
Speaker 3: ago during COVID, when you look at the FED model,
Speaker 3: which compares the pe on bonds, right, the price that
Speaker 3: investors pay for future coupons, and you compare that to
Speaker 3: the pe on equities. In twenty twenty, bonds were ninety
Speaker 3: one percent more expensive than stocks. So it was very
Speaker 3: low hanging fruit for the stock market to do well
Speaker 3: because they had no competition from what we consider the
Speaker 3: risk free asset. Now, bonds are fifteen percent cheaper than stocks,
Speaker 3: even though bonds should be more expensive because they are
Speaker 3: considered the risk free asset, although some people might argue
Speaker 3: with that these days. And so as yields rise and
Speaker 3: bonds have become viable, right, so we're at four point
Speaker 3: seventy nine percent, tips are in the mid two so
Speaker 3: you're getting a real yield that is significantly positive, and
Speaker 3: you have now a positive bonds to stocks correlation. You're
Speaker 3: at a point now where stocks need to compete with
Speaker 3: bonds to be that viable, risky asset. And when bond
Speaker 3: yields go up let's say four and a half five,
Speaker 3: when they get into that zone, the stock market starts
Speaker 3: to wobble, which doesn't mean the end of the bullmarket
Speaker 3: for stocks, but you know, it interrupts the mojo, as
Speaker 3: I've been calling it. And we saw that in twenty
Speaker 3: twenty three, obviously twenty twenty two, and we're seeing it
Speaker 3: again today.
Speaker 2: Quickly, Urine, what is the length of this bull market?
Speaker 2: You've got a wonderful I'm going to be polite and
Speaker 2: called a spiral chart out on LinkedIn that shows a
Speaker 2: duration of a bull market on a baseball And he's
Speaker 2: Dutch Caribbean. What can I do on a baseball standpoint?
Speaker 2: I mean, I mean, Urine's up in Boston. He doesn't
Speaker 2: go to Fenway anymore. It's been so difficult. But are
Speaker 2: we in the third inning or the eighth inning? Urin?
Speaker 3: I think we're closer to the seventh or eighth inning.
Speaker 3: And when you think about the all bull markets over
Speaker 3: the past one hundred plus years, the median bullmarket lasts
Speaker 3: thirty months and produces a ninety percent gain. Our bullmarket
Speaker 3: is twenty seven months old and has produced about a
Speaker 3: seventy five percent price gain. But of course the median,
Speaker 3: you know, is the median, and there's wide, wide dispersion.
Speaker 3: I mean, the nineteen ninety five bull market lasted for
Speaker 3: much much longer than that, and certainly there are parallels
Speaker 3: to that, but the whole AI theme. But when you
Speaker 3: go back to periods in time where rates mattered, as
Speaker 3: we just discussed, the bull markets tend to be more
Speaker 3: sort of average, and I'm thinking like nineteen sixties, in
Speaker 3: nineteen eighties. So I think we're in later innings, and
Speaker 3: you know, the momentum of the valuation push I think
Speaker 3: is behind us. Now it's all up to earnings which
Speaker 3: are coming through. But now you get these cross currents
Speaker 3: of the FED being done and rising rates, and it
Speaker 3: will occasionally interrupt and slow down this bowl.
Speaker 2: Sim Martin sat Stacius. I hope I'm pronouncing that right.
Speaker 2: Saba curso bonaire. And you're in timmer this morning, folks,
Speaker 2: and for those on YouTube can see the joy is
Speaker 2: in arubaur in Timor. Is your Dutch Caribbean the same
Speaker 2: as your childhood.
Speaker 3: It is a lot busier than it was. But so
Speaker 3: I was born here in nineteen sixty two along with
Speaker 3: my two brothers. My parents lived here for three and
Speaker 3: a half decades. My father was sent here in nineteen
Speaker 3: fifty for the military service. My parents are ninety and
Speaker 3: ninety seven. They retired to Holland back in the nineteen eighties,
Speaker 3: but this is the one trip they still make and
Speaker 3: my parents are here, and that's why I'm here because
Speaker 3: I don't want to miss any minutes with them. So
Speaker 3: my parents and their three sons are under the same
Speaker 3: roof in my brother's house. And but the island is
Speaker 3: much much busier. There are more hotels, there's a lot
Speaker 3: of ARABNB. So when I go to the supermarket because
Speaker 3: I like to cook here every night, there are so
Speaker 3: many tourists who are airbnbing and therefore are cooking themselves.
Speaker 3: And that's, of course, it's great to see. It's not
Speaker 3: a criticism, but it's different from the sleepy days when
Speaker 3: I grew up here.
Speaker 4: Tom taking notes, you're gonna get that note taking notes
Speaker 4: for the president of Airbnbreckman day.
Speaker 2: You're in Timber get in line. Can we look at
Speaker 2: the Dutch Caribbean as a fifty second star?
Speaker 4: All in good time, Tom.
Speaker 2: You're in timer. Thank you so much from Aruba, and
Speaker 2: just good morning to your parents as they celebrate with
Speaker 2: you and your family in a Ruba. That's really cool.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 2: The the report and CPI tomorrow. And we have someone
Speaker 2: right now absolutely definitive on this. Stephen Stanley is chief
Speaker 2: economist at Santander and has decades of extinguishment of having
Speaker 2: trophies on the mantle for getting it right. Is it
Speaker 2: tough to measure CPI now or do you feel like
Speaker 2: you got to handle on the guestimate for tomorrow?
Speaker 5: Yeah? I think that what's been tough lately has been
Speaker 5: the translation from CPI to the PCE deflator, which is
Speaker 5: obviously to what the FED wants, the FED pays attention to,
Speaker 5: because we've had consistent point three s on the core
Speaker 5: CPI and some months that translates to a high PCE
Speaker 5: number and some months to a low PCE number. So
Speaker 5: that's that's really been the difficulty lately.
Speaker 2: How does real estate rental homeownership plug into this madness?
Speaker 5: So, I mean, it's far and away the biggest piece
Speaker 5: of the core CPI. It's over forty percent of the
Speaker 5: core CPI.
Speaker 2: It should be, That's what I mean. I mean Lisa's
Speaker 2: rent and she's putting eighty percent of her paycheck monthly
Speaker 2: rent forty All.
Speaker 5: Right, yeah, yeah, it's less in the core PCEE, but
Speaker 5: it's clearly an important part of the puzzle right now.
Speaker 5: Fed uh Palell and others of the FED have been
Speaker 5: talking about how this was going to come down for
Speaker 5: a long time, and it really hasn't until last month
Speaker 5: we got a low reading and so we're waiting, I think,
Speaker 5: to see whether that was a fluke or the beginning
Speaker 5: of a better trend.
Speaker 4: As we look ahead to getting these data in just
Speaker 4: a few minutes and CPI tomorrow, what would be most
Speaker 4: worrisome for you to see as you look at it
Speaker 4: on a more granular level.
Speaker 5: Well, I think that you know, the really important piece
Speaker 5: of this right now in terms of core inflation has
Speaker 5: been on the services side, So you know, housing is
Speaker 5: the biggest chunk of that, but certainly medical care services,
Speaker 5: financial services, they're you know, a handful of these big
Speaker 5: services categories that really paying attention to and where you're
Speaker 5: going to have to see progress if we're going to
Speaker 5: get back to two percent inflation.
Speaker 4: It's the FED too narrowly looking at these data.
Speaker 6: Now.
Speaker 4: We hear a lot about being data driven versus a
Speaker 4: point driven. Are you worried that there is a tendency
Speaker 4: here to look at these one by one, not with
Speaker 4: any sort of average or longer term horizon.
Speaker 2: Absolutely.
Speaker 5: I mean my sense is that we've had kind of
Speaker 5: strings of good and then bad data. You know, we
Speaker 5: had high data at the beginning of twenty twenty four,
Speaker 5: then it came down a little bit, then back up,
Speaker 5: and it seems like every time you get that little shift,
Speaker 5: the FED is swinging violently from hawkish to dubvish and
Speaker 5: back again. So yeah, I'd like to see them a
Speaker 5: little provide a little bit more stability on that front.
Speaker 2: But what Global Wall Street wants to know from you,
Speaker 2: is a disinflationary vector still in place.
Speaker 5: I think it is. I think that we're going to
Speaker 5: see gradual improvement. It's going to be slow, but I
Speaker 5: think we are as as time passes.
Speaker 2: Theoretically an extended axis. It's going to be slow. Is
Speaker 2: beneficial to embed in anchor a lower inflation, right is physics?
Speaker 2: One oh one?
Speaker 4: Did you do physics in high school?
Speaker 2: In high school? I mean, but isn't the slow disinflationary
Speaker 2: tendency better? For John Williams Well.
Speaker 5: I mean, you know, ideally, I think the FED would
Speaker 5: like to be at two percent yesterday, right, And I
Speaker 5: think the stubbornness of inflation running above their target has
Speaker 5: been somewhat frustrating to them. But I do think on
Speaker 5: an underlying basis, we are seeing slow We're seeing slow deceleration.
Speaker 5: So I think we'll eventually if we, you know, stay
Speaker 5: the course, we'll eventually get to two percent. But it's
Speaker 5: not going to happen in the next month or two.
Speaker 2: The analysis here for surveillance worldwide is boom. Stephen Stanley
Speaker 2: with us as well. Stephen, you're not looking at the
Speaker 2: data but across the board a disinflationary tendency. What happens
Speaker 2: if we get that tomorrow with CPI wow, I think
Speaker 2: talking about whiplash.
Speaker 5: The FED would be very happy with that. I will say,
Speaker 5: there's the relationship between the PPI and CPI. How can
Speaker 5: we put it. It's ten us and I thought we'd
Speaker 5: get a lower PPI number today, but I have a
Speaker 5: high CPI number tomorrow. So I don't think this necessarily
Speaker 5: should give us a ton of comfort.
Speaker 2: Okay, so you're gonna wait to see what the tomorrow's
Speaker 2: for sure. The deity is the PPI for those younger,
Speaker 2: it's not the same structure or model. Is the PPI
Speaker 2: we were schooled one years ago, that's right? Yeah, how
Speaker 2: is it different now?
Speaker 5: So the BLS has begun, I don't know, it's been
Speaker 5: about ten years now, has begun to try to measure
Speaker 5: service prices at the producer level. So in the old days,
Speaker 5: the PPI was just only goods prices at the wholesale level.
Speaker 5: And you know, some of these things, it's it's kind
Speaker 5: of hard to get a read on because you know, honestly,
Speaker 5: there is no wholesale market for most surfaces, right, So
Speaker 5: I think the methodology is quite different. What's important about
Speaker 5: the PPI now though, is that for some of those
Speaker 5: services categories, the BEA uses the PPI data rather than
Speaker 5: the CPI data to calculate the pc deflator items?
Speaker 2: Are you kidding all this? I feel like I'm in
Speaker 2: secretary excess kind of God looking at the alphabet soup.
Speaker 2: David has saved me here.
Speaker 4: Stean, we were talking just a moment ago about the
Speaker 4: kind of vacillation we've seen between the FED being hawkish
Speaker 4: and dubvish as we do this kind of economic ornithology here,
Speaker 4: we're seeing a more dubbish Stephen Stanley as well here
Speaker 4: in the studio as of late. How are you navigating
Speaker 4: all of this? How are you putting this together? And
Speaker 4: how's it sort of shaping this? Yes, the inflation data today,
Speaker 4: but the labor market data we got last week. How's
Speaker 4: it changed your vantage here on what's going to happen
Speaker 4: going forward?
Speaker 5: Yeah, Well, as you mentioned, I mean I've actually been
Speaker 5: pretty dubbish lately, which is a r Yes, I'm usually
Speaker 5: the hawk in the room. So I think that the
Speaker 5: economy is likely to be slower in the near term.
Speaker 5: And I think the main the easy explanation for that
Speaker 5: is that businesses are uncertain. We've got a lot of
Speaker 5: policy questions to be resolved, and so I think a
Speaker 5: lot of businesses that probably even though they've we've seen
Speaker 5: business optimism pick up, I think businesses are sitting on
Speaker 5: the sidelines waiting to see so I think that for me,
Speaker 5: the first half of twenty twenty five should be the
Speaker 5: slowest period, and then as we get certainty on policy,
Speaker 5: I think things start to pick up again. The question
Speaker 5: really is, are we getting a slow down in the
Speaker 5: labor market? Last Friday's numbers would say no, you know,
Speaker 5: I would argue that we're still slowly seeing job growth moderate.
Speaker 5: I do think the unemployment rate will tick up a
Speaker 5: little bit in twenty twenty five, and that gives the
Speaker 5: Fed a little bit of a reason maybe to move
Speaker 5: closer to their view if we're neutralists.
Speaker 2: Steven Sanley, thank you so much with sentender this morning.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 2: Sarah House joins us now senior economist at Wills Fargo.
Speaker 2: Sarah rates higher, Does that just simply mean, we got
Speaker 2: a better animal spirit, a better inflation, a better nominal GDP,
Speaker 2: and that will fold over to a good earning season.
Speaker 2: Is that what you're here from Securities Research at Wells Fargo.
Speaker 7: Yeah, so, I think that's a big part of the
Speaker 7: lift and rates that we've seen as we've continued to
Speaker 7: see a really strong performance of the US economy, whether
Speaker 7: it's in some of the more growth related indicators like
Speaker 7: the consumer spending and we'll get a look at retail
Speaker 7: sales later this week, but also just as we've seen
Speaker 7: the labor market firm up as well, I think that's
Speaker 7: pointing to consumers still have money in their pockets that
Speaker 7: they're spending, which I think all should still be pretty
Speaker 7: beneficial for corporate earnings growth that continue to I think
Speaker 7: also have that positive the backupfact with the labor market,
Speaker 7: so support supporting headcamp.
Speaker 4: Sarah, give us the battlefield report here as we look
Speaker 4: at the Fed's fight against ty inflation and the data
Speaker 4: that we got this morning that miss on Producer price
Speaker 4: index looking ahead to CPI tomorrow, where is the FED
Speaker 4: in this fight? And I wonder about the longevity of
Speaker 4: this two percent target going forward? Here it strikes me
Speaker 4: that we were kind of in this vacuum of a
Speaker 4: sort when we didn't have all of the uncertainty surrounding
Speaker 4: tariff's policy or immigration policy or fiscal policy. Now that
Speaker 4: we introduce all of that, do you think we're going
Speaker 4: to see a FED, shall we say, place less emphasis
Speaker 4: on that going forward.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 7: So I think this is the hardest part of the
Speaker 7: inflation fight. So early on, we had I think some
Speaker 7: pretty low hanging fruit when we think about unwinding supply chains,
Speaker 7: just the normalization and commodity prices after the Russian invasion
Speaker 7: of Ukraine. But this is the harder part where we're
Speaker 7: still seeing pretty good growth, as we talked about, but
Speaker 7: that doesn't leave a lot of incentive for firms to
Speaker 7: really pair back in terms at the rate of which
Speaker 7: they're increasing prices, and I think they've they've relearned that
Speaker 7: you can increase price without losing volume in any material way.
Speaker 7: And so I think that does make it a pretty
Speaker 7: difficult position for the FED, and ultimately this inflation fight
Speaker 7: is not over.
Speaker 2: Sarah House, I've got to ask here, we're deep after
Speaker 2: PPI forty minutes on, have you readjusted your view to
Speaker 2: CPI tomorrow after witnessing the disinflation of eight thirty this morning.
Speaker 7: Now having may changes to what we're looking for for
Speaker 7: CPI tomorrow. These are separate surveys.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 7: There are a few parts of it that are are
Speaker 7: pretty highly correlated with CPI, like for example, consumer food prices,
Speaker 7: but for the most part, these are looking at inflation
Speaker 7: from different surveys and different perspectives, so those from what
Speaker 7: consumers are paying versus those of what producers are receiving.
Speaker 7: This is more important for the PC deflator. So we
Speaker 7: were kind of looking at what core PC and headline
Speaker 7: PC are tracking for December. Now that we got inputs
Speaker 7: like in terms of medical care, a lot of information
Speaker 7: on finance and insurance, as well as what happens in
Speaker 7: transportation costs. So tweaking that up maybe slightly, maybe modestly,
Speaker 7: just with the strength bus on in airfares, But it
Speaker 7: doesn't look like this is a wholesale change in terms
Speaker 7: of the inflation numbers for December when we look at
Speaker 7: them in totality, Sarah, we.
Speaker 4: Have speaking of looking at in totality, I'd love to
Speaker 4: kind of look at these data in complement with what
Speaker 4: we got last week that the jobs data, the FED
Speaker 4: doing its balanced dance, you doing that as well. How
Speaker 4: do you see the two of them in complement, and
Speaker 4: how did it kind of change your perspective, if at all,
Speaker 4: on what the Fed's going to do here in the
Speaker 4: months ahead.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 7: So, what I think we've really seen, especially coming out
Speaker 7: of the December jobs report, is that the scare that
Speaker 7: we had this summer over the labor market, where we
Speaker 7: certainly saw it weakening, and I think there was a
Speaker 7: lot of concern that it was going to deteriorate in
Speaker 7: a nonlinear way. I think those canerns have been set aside,
Speaker 7: and so I think that's allowing the FED to shift
Speaker 7: its focus back more firmly on inflation, to finish this
Speaker 7: fight to get inflation all the way back down to
Speaker 7: two percent. And I think with fewer risks right now
Speaker 7: being posed to the labor market, that it does point
Speaker 7: to rates I think staying potentially where they are for
Speaker 7: for longer than maybe what a lot of folks were
Speaker 7: expecting in the final months of next year. So I
Speaker 7: think market's pushing out the timing of that next cut,
Speaker 7: and you know, the degree to which we even see
Speaker 7: any further cuts in the near chairament I think is appropriate.
Speaker 2: I look, Sarah at the American economy, and you know,
Speaker 2: Joe Wisenthal had a great tweet out, Yeah, David Gerr,
Speaker 2: we're deep into twenty twenty five.
Speaker 6: Very deeply.
Speaker 2: It's like we're two weeks, two weeks. It was like
Speaker 2: we're in three, four or five six months. Sarah, do
Speaker 2: you feel like you have to remodel your twelve thirty
Speaker 2: one model? I mean, is there a are I sure
Speaker 2: to readjust now?
Speaker 7: I don't think there's there's a big pressure. I mean,
Speaker 7: it has felt like a long first two weeks of
Speaker 7: the year with everything that's gone on. But I think
Speaker 7: you're still looking at in an environment where inflation is
Speaker 7: going to be a bit sticky. It's going to be
Speaker 7: really hard I think to move the dial a lot
Speaker 7: further in terms of getting inflation back down to the
Speaker 7: FEDS two percent target. So heading into the year, we're
Speaker 7: looking for inflation to more or less move sideways this year,
Speaker 7: and I think that's that's still consistent with the data
Speaker 7: that we've seen over the past few weeks. But I
Speaker 7: think probably the bigger shift has been I think further
Speaker 7: firming in the labor market, which again just reduces I
Speaker 7: think some of the concern on the employment side of
Speaker 7: the Fed's mandate.
Speaker 2: Sarah House, thank you so much for sharing us today
Speaker 2: with Wills Fargo.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android
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Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal your daily look.
Speaker 2: The front page is a Lisa Matteo moment, Lisa, do
Speaker 2: you have okay?
Speaker 6: I found this story in the Wall Street Journalists because
Speaker 6: this is usually the time when people tend to quit
Speaker 6: their New Year's fitness resolution already. They usually last two weeks. Yeah,
Speaker 6: they're usually about two weeks into the new year. But
Speaker 6: there's a lot of people who have not been happy.
Speaker 6: But it's the gym regulars have been very frustrated because
Speaker 6: they always say it happens every year. The gyms are packs.
Speaker 6: They can't get a shower, they can't get a locker,
Speaker 6: they can't get on a treadmill, the parking lot is full,
Speaker 6: and they said they don't know the gym etiquette. There
Speaker 6: is a certain job.
Speaker 4: Not wiping off the peloton exactly.
Speaker 6: You have to wipe off the palatine.
Speaker 2: For those of you that don't know, the Sun Radio,
Speaker 2: I mean, girl is actually pretty chisel climbs Mount radio
Speaker 2: every summer. But Lisa, you are the one. What's the
Speaker 2: number one etiquette that drives your nuts?
Speaker 6: He said, Well, I work out from home, but when
Speaker 6: I do go to the gym, it's the wiping down
Speaker 6: the equipment you have to do and also putting back
Speaker 6: the weights. People just leave them.
Speaker 2: Yeah, seriously, it's always it's always some guy who's lifting.
Speaker 2: I'm sitting there going I can I can move this.
Speaker 6: Next Yesterday we were talking about dry January. So now
Speaker 6: we have this story doing this America's bourbon boom. It
Speaker 6: was big during the pandemic, right, so it seems to
Speaker 6: be coming to an end. A lot of insiders telling
Speaker 6: the journal that distillers are cutting back jobs, they're stopping
Speaker 6: expansion plans, especially the smaller ones, because drinkers are cutting back, right,
Speaker 6: They're heading to cheaper brands. They also have people drinking
Speaker 6: less because of weight loss drugs. The popularity of that.
Speaker 6: They're thinking tariffs could hurt exports on top of it,
Speaker 6: and then you had that US Surgeon General warning you
Speaker 6: remember that saying alcohol should carry cancer wanting labels. So
Speaker 6: it's it's a big thing. But now they're saying they're
Speaker 6: starting to cut back. But I don't know. I need
Speaker 6: my Manhattan. I have to have it.
Speaker 4: You're not a bourbon drinker.
Speaker 2: I know that to be a fact. On occasion, my
Speaker 2: father actually cuffed Jack Daniels, Jack Daniels bourbon.
Speaker 4: Well, excuse Tennessee whiskey. It's Tennessee whiskey.
Speaker 6: It's in the category.
Speaker 2: Specialty man the mateo Manhattan.
Speaker 6: What is the I like, Yeah, bourbon rye bullet, that's
Speaker 6: that's next. I don't know if that's a good thing.
Speaker 6: So we move on from this. So Americans drinking less alcohol.
Speaker 6: But what's becoming more on top and what's becoming center
Speaker 6: stage is cannabis. Another especially among the younger generation, they're
Speaker 6: drinking less alcohol because they're turning to it. But here's
Speaker 6: the thing, it's not just and this is in you know,
Speaker 6: Business Insider and also on Bloomberg there's a great BusinessWeek
Speaker 6: article about it. Is that it's not just people smoking it,
Speaker 6: but drinking it. So cannabis infused drinks. A lot of
Speaker 6: alcohol companies are going to it. And there's this loophole
Speaker 6: because even though legalization varies state by state, a lot
Speaker 6: of cannabis products so you can get them in stores
Speaker 6: and restaurants nationwide. So the loophole is that it's in
Speaker 6: the Agriculture Improvement Act of twenty eighteen. It legalized the
Speaker 6: growth and sale of him that contains those low concentrations
Speaker 6: of cannabis. So now it's kind of this free for
Speaker 6: all and people are trying to figure out where is
Speaker 6: it legal, where is it not legal? But it's being
Speaker 6: sold yes, stores and restaurants worldwide, and this is the
Speaker 6: new thing and the cannabis infused.
Speaker 2: And I noticed quickly here boy, the sheds are gone
Speaker 2: in the street.
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, thereants, yes here in New York.
Speaker 7: You know.
Speaker 4: I was talking to a restaurant owner who said they
Speaker 4: have to build a certain type that the city approves,
Speaker 4: and it's it's expensive and it's but it was kind
Speaker 4: of a sad moment in a way to see those.
Speaker 2: Disappearable Lisa, tell you, thank you so much. This uh
Speaker 2: newspapers A Lisa Bruteo. It's watch to you by bullet
Speaker 2: rye famous Rye.
Speaker 4: You want to give your address.
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