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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, but this one is good.

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Speaker 1: All right. Here we go throwing in job.

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Speaker 2: We're saying it's a cash to stop. We see most

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Speaker 2: gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 1: God, that's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like to

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Speaker 1: make money. All right, This is the ultimate Kabai want to.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway flow and a.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to another episode of the Action Network podcast. I

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Speaker 3: am your host, Brandon Anderson here with Raheem Palmer picking

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Speaker 3: off your Super Bowl week coverage. Here at the Action Network.

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Speaker 3: We have got you covered from every angle. We got sides, totals,

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Speaker 3: money lines, we got pops, we got coin flipped, super

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Speaker 3: Bowl Square is anything else you need? Articles, podcasts, videos,

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Speaker 3: We got the whole gamut here at the Action Network.

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Speaker 3: Make sure to download the app, check out the website,

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Speaker 3: keep an eye on all the podcast feeds. We are

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Speaker 3: going to wall to wall coverage for Super Bowl a

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Speaker 3: week here, so of course for today as all as

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Speaker 3: odds are from BETMGM, the official odds provider of the

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Speaker 3: Action Network podcast. In Raheem today, we are kicking off

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Speaker 3: our Super Bowl Week with some of our best bets.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna do sides, we'll do the total, we'll do

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Speaker 3: MVP right at the top, and we're gonna get into

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Speaker 3: our five best bets, all these props. You know, we

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Speaker 3: love our props in the Super Bowl week, So we

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Speaker 3: have got a full in depth review of the big

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Speaker 3: game coming on the Action Network podcast later this week.

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Speaker 3: But I always feel like it's important to, you know,

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Speaker 3: set up the game script. Cant to talk about what

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Speaker 3: we expect to come in a game like this before

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Speaker 3: we dive into all the props.

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Speaker 2: So we gotta start the top.

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Speaker 3: Super Bowl fifty six Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Rams. The

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Speaker 3: Rams are favored by four and a half at bet

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Speaker 3: MGM four at other books. I like the Rams. I

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Speaker 3: think that the Rams are just the better team here.

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Speaker 3: The Rams, by Dvoa in the season, were better on offense,

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Speaker 3: they're better on defense, they're better on special teams, and

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Speaker 3: I think if you look at what we've seen in

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Speaker 3: the playoffs so far, that really is born out as well.

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Speaker 3: The Rams played the Cardinals, the Bucks and the forty

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Speaker 3: nine Ers, three other very quality teams, teams that were

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Speaker 3: really in the mix all season long, and they were

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Speaker 3: the better team. They had a lot more yardage in

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Speaker 3: most of those games. They really controlled things most of

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Speaker 3: the way outside of some bad bounces and kind of

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Speaker 3: weird game scripts that happened these last couple of weeks.

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Speaker 3: But they were the better team and the deserving team

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Speaker 3: and all three of those. If you look at the Bengals,

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Speaker 3: I don't know that they were the deserving team that

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Speaker 3: should be here.

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Speaker 2: Credit that they're here.

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Speaker 3: They overcame it, but I of the Titans were a

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Speaker 3: little bit better and gave the game away, and the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs were much better and really gave that game away.

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Speaker 3: So I just feel like the Rams are the better team.

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Speaker 3: I especially dislike the matchup for the Bengals. They're O

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Speaker 3: line against that Rams pass rush. Aaron Donald, von Miller,

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Speaker 3: Leonard Floyd. We know we've talked about this a lot, Rahiim.

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Speaker 3: The Rams have the number one pass rush win rate

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Speaker 3: on ESPN. They are going to be in that Cincinnati

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Speaker 3: backfield all game, and we saw just last year in

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Speaker 3: the Super Bowl. The quarterback, as good as Joe Burrow

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Speaker 3: has been, can't be the same guy when you don't

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Speaker 3: have time. And I just feel like the Rams defense

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Speaker 3: is the big difference maker here. A lot of my

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Speaker 3: other props are going to get into that, so we'll

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Speaker 3: come back to that. But I think the Rams are

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Speaker 3: the better team. I think the Rams are the deserving

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Speaker 3: favorite here and clear favorites, and the team that wins

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Speaker 3: says usually cover this postseason, the team that wins usually

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Speaker 3: wins and covers in Super Bowl hitt. If you look

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Speaker 3: at the numbers, Stucky had a lot of good numbers

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Speaker 3: on the Action Howork podcast and on the favorites earlier

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Speaker 3: this week. So I like the Rams. I will take

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Speaker 3: them to win and cover. Who do you got.

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Speaker 1: Look for my Super Bowl pick? I'm going with the

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati Bengals plus four and a half. I like a

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Speaker 1: money line. Before we break down to pick, the one

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Speaker 1: thing I want to do is read off some Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl trends. Favorites have only gone seven and thirteen against

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Speaker 1: the spread since the year two thousand. Since nineteen ninety,

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Speaker 1: favorites of three and a half or more are just

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Speaker 1: seven thirteen and two against the spread. I know the

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Speaker 1: underdog has only won four out of the thirteen times

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Speaker 1: in which they covered the spread, but I think that

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Speaker 1: the Bengals are really live in this matchup. One of

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Speaker 1: the reasons why is, you know, You're gonna hear a

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Speaker 1: lot of talk about Aaron Donald von Miller, this Rams

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Speaker 1: pass rush, which is first at ESPN's past rush win rate,

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Speaker 1: going up against this Bengals offensive line which has struggled

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Speaker 1: to protect. But look, they won a playoff game in

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Speaker 1: which they got sacked nine times. Do we really see

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Speaker 1: a non sack performance from Von Miller and Aaron Donald.

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Speaker 1: I don't see it. I think the Bengals are gonna

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Speaker 1: get the ball out quick, and the Rams still have

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Speaker 1: injuries to Jordan Fuller, Taylor Rap, and I think a

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Speaker 1: thirty year old Eric Weddle it's not gonna it's not

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Speaker 1: gonna be able to slow down this Bengals offense with

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Speaker 1: Jamar Chase and Joe Mixon and Tyler Board. I just

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Speaker 1: think the Bengals are gonna be able to get the

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Speaker 1: ball out quick. And when I look at these two teams, Look,

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Speaker 1: the Rams are just five and five versus playoff teams

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Speaker 1: this year. Average marginal loss is just twelve point two points.

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Speaker 1: The Bengals are seven and two against playoff teams this year,

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Speaker 1: and both losses were about three points in overtime. That

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Speaker 1: was against the Packers twenty five to twenty two. We

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Speaker 1: all know the Bengals kept missing field goals and then

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Speaker 1: the forty nine ers and they lost by three in overtime.

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Speaker 1: So I think the Bengals are going to be able

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Speaker 1: to cover this game. I think the Bengals have just

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Speaker 1: been to me, the Bengals have been the better team

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Speaker 1: all year, and I think the Rams have been fortunate

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Speaker 1: they caught the Cardinals. The Buccaneers teams were really really

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Speaker 1: banged up offensive lines. The Bengals offensive line isn't the best,

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Speaker 1: but they are healthy. And then the forty nine Ers,

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Speaker 1: they kind of pissed that game away. To me, the

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Speaker 1: Bengals had the better resume. They beat the Titans healthy

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Speaker 1: on a row, they came back and beat the Chiefs. Look,

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs were seen as unbeatable. So give me the

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Speaker 1: Bengals in this matchup.

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Speaker 3: All right, Let's look at the total right now. Total

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Speaker 3: is sitting at forty eight and a half has mostly

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Speaker 3: been there for a while now. The last few days.

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Speaker 3: I lean under here and it comes back to that

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Speaker 3: defense thing. The Bengals did not play a tough slate

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Speaker 3: of defenses this year, and as much as they've come

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Speaker 3: through in the clutch down the stretch when they had

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Speaker 3: to in these playoff games. It's not the most explosive offense.

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Speaker 3: It's an offense that struggled a bit when they did

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Speaker 3: face a tough defense. If you go by dv Away

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Speaker 3: on defensive ratings, the Bengals had the second easiest slate

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Speaker 3: of opponent defenses that the offense faced all year long,

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Speaker 3: and they only face one top ten defense all year.

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Speaker 3: So I think the Bengals are going to struggle to

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Speaker 3: face the step up in competition. The Rams defense is

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Speaker 3: the best year that they will have played all year.

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Speaker 2: I also expect heavy dose.

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Speaker 3: Of run game from both teams, and maybe one or

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Speaker 3: both offensive lines could struggle here. Got some injuries on

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Speaker 3: the lines, some good pass rush. We also have two

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Speaker 3: coaches who have been relatively conservative, who I think are

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Speaker 3: going to try to protect these quarterbacks. I think things

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Speaker 3: start slow and I lean under forty eight and a half.

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Speaker 3: I know you like to play totals a little bit

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Speaker 3: more than me. How are you thinking on the total

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Speaker 3: rum As.

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Speaker 1: Far as the total the overheads hit in ten and

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Speaker 1: sixteen games with the total under fifty since nineteen ninety thirteen.

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Speaker 1: In the last eighteen Super Bowls, with the total of

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Speaker 1: forty eight have gone under in the first half. The

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Speaker 1: first quarter has been the highest score in total and

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Speaker 1: only one of the last twenty four Super Bowls. And

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna be honest with you. If I'm playing the total,

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Speaker 1: I'm playing it three different ways. I like the first

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Speaker 1: quarter under nine and a half points. I think Super

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Speaker 1: Bowls tend to start off a little bit slower than

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Speaker 1: your average game. There's some nerves that kick in. One

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl that kind of stands out as far as

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Speaker 1: being like a highest scoring right out of the gate was

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Speaker 1: the Eagles Patriots. But I don't think we're gonna see that.

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Speaker 1: I like the first quarter under I like the first

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Speaker 1: half under twenty four and a half. And I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: be honest with you, I like this game to go

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Speaker 1: over because I think it's gonna heat up at some point.

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Speaker 1: I think forty eight is a little bit low. I'm

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Speaker 1: not gonna play it out the game, but that's the

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Speaker 1: thing I want to look towards.

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Speaker 4: in Nevada. Thanks so much for listening. Let's get back

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Speaker 4: to the.

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Speaker 1: Show, all right.

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Speaker 3: So Super Bowl MVP, I got the rams. We know

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Speaker 3: that the Super MVP comes from a winning team. In fact,

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Speaker 3: I actually learned this last week that the media and

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Speaker 3: the voters are told to vote for a player on

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Speaker 3: the winning team. So no more losing team stuff. I

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Speaker 3: needed a RAM, and I'm not going with a favorite here.

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Speaker 3: I don't like Matt Stafford to win this. I like

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Speaker 3: Cooper Cup at six to one odds. Cooper Cup has

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Speaker 3: been a monster this year. He led the league in

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Speaker 3: receiving yards and receptions and touchdowns the triple Crown. He

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Speaker 3: had a touchdown in fourteen or twenty games kind of

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Speaker 3: the postseason, in half of his games, he had one

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Speaker 3: hundred and eighteen or more yards receiving, which is a

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Speaker 3: crazy number. He had ninety two or more yards all

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Speaker 3: but two games. He just has been a stats monster.

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Speaker 3: He's basically got a floor of almost one hundred yards.

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Speaker 3: He's likely to get into the end zone if we

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Speaker 3: get some scores, gonna catch a lot of passes, and

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Speaker 3: we've seen the last few games. He's gonna be the

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Speaker 3: key guy on third downs. He's gonna be a key

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Speaker 3: guy in the red zone. He's just going to be

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Speaker 3: the engine of this offense. And as much as the

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Speaker 3: quarterback often gets the credit, Copp has been the guy

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Speaker 3: getting the credit all year. He's the guy that's gonna

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Speaker 3: probably win Offensive Player of the Year. He's a guy

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Speaker 3: that might even get some MVP votes when Stafford was

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Speaker 3: the MVP guy earlier this season, and if you look

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Speaker 3: at past MVPs two twenty eighteen, Julian Ellman two thousand

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Speaker 3: and four, Dion Branch cop fits the mold of what

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Speaker 3: those guys look like as just guys are going to

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Speaker 3: get a eight, nine to ten, maybe double digit catches,

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Speaker 3: rack up yardage, move the ball, keep the chains moving.

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Speaker 3: Maybe if Cup has a really big game. Jerry Rice

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Speaker 3: nineteen eighty eight eleven catches two hundred and fifteen yards. Boy,

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Speaker 3: if Kup does anything close to that, he's gonna walk

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Speaker 3: with the MVP here.

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Speaker 2: Six to one. I think is crazy odds.

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Speaker 3: You've got the favorite as the Rams, and Cup I

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Speaker 3: think is their best player offensively. Is gonna get a

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Speaker 3: lot of attention, So he is my MVP pick. I

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Speaker 3: might sprinkle a little bit on my favorite defensive player

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Speaker 3: here to win it, and I think you've got defensive

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Speaker 3: player like as well, but I like von Miller here.

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Speaker 2: Von Miller actually won Super.

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Speaker 3: MVP from the twenty fifteen year two and a half

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Speaker 3: sacks and two forest fumbles in the big Game. He

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Speaker 3: didn't have a sack last week against the Niners, but

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Speaker 3: he had a sack in six straight games before that.

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Speaker 3: For the Rams, we know that the Bengals offensive line

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Speaker 3: is not a big strength. I think they're gonna have

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Speaker 3: their hands full trying to block Aaron Donald and that

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Speaker 3: might leave Von Miller in someone on one pass coverage

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Speaker 3: on the outside. He's the sort of guy that can

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Speaker 3: kind of be quiet for a stretch and then just

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Speaker 3: two or three big play has totally change the tenor

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Speaker 3: of the game comes through get the bletz. He's at

258
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Speaker 3: fifty to one for Super Bowl MVP, So if it

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Speaker 3: is gonna be a defensive player here, I think he's

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Speaker 3: the one that I.

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Speaker 2: Would go with. Who is your Super Bowl MVP or him?

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Speaker 1: When it comes to the Super Bowl MVP, I like

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow plus two thirty, but that's born you don't

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Speaker 1: want to play that, like I think, if you're gonna

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Speaker 1: play that, you might as well play the Bengals. For me,

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Speaker 1: I think the best value on the board lies with

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Speaker 1: von Miller. Von Miller has already dominated a Super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: We saw what he did to Cam Newton, and look,

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Speaker 1: fifty five percent of the MVP winners have come from

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Speaker 1: the quarterback position, but we've seen ten defensive players win MVP,

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Speaker 1: and I think he has a real shot. They have

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Speaker 1: a real impactful game here. The Bengals, their office A

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Speaker 1: lot isn't the best. Last eight games, von Miller has

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Speaker 1: had forty pressures in six sacks Titans. They set Joe

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Speaker 1: Burrow nine times, and even though I don't see that

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Speaker 1: happening in this match up, I think at forty to one,

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Speaker 1: fifty to one, you got some good value on Von

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Speaker 1: Miller to win the Most Valuable Player Award. I think

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Speaker 1: you could hatch that with Joe Burrow, because I do

280
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Speaker 1: think Joe Burrow is gonna get it done. But if

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Speaker 1: you want your long shot pick, you gotta go with

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Speaker 1: von Miller.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 3: Well, now that we have talked about the side and

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Speaker 3: total and MVP that we like, let's just get quickly

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Speaker 3: into our best bets here. I will start us off

287
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Speaker 3: with just a simple one. I like the Bengals first

288
00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:41,840
Speaker 3: drive to end in a punt minus one fifteen on

289
00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:44,640
Speaker 3: that one, and again a lot of the same themes

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Speaker 3: in my picks here. The Bengals face some easy slate

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Speaker 3: of defenses this year. The Rams defense is going to

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00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:51,440
Speaker 3: be a step up, and I think it's gonna be

293
00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:54,280
Speaker 3: an adjustment right away. I expect the Bengals line to

294
00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:57,200
Speaker 3: struggle right out of the gates, and the Bengals also

295
00:14:57,320 --> 00:15:00,480
Speaker 3: by Dvoa only the number twenty nine offense for the

296
00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:04,200
Speaker 3: entire season. The Rams defense very strong in the first half.

297
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Speaker 3: I expect the Bengals, especially with a young quarterback, rookie receiver,

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00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:13,560
Speaker 3: young conservative coach, I think that they go maybe even

299
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Speaker 3: three and out. But I don't like them to get

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Speaker 3: into scoring position early. So I like Bengals first drive punt.

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Speaker 3: What is your first beat?

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Speaker 1: Okay, one of my favorite props to play in the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl, and I think I played this every single year.

304
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Speaker 1: Highest scoring half second half is at minus one forty five.

305
00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:34,400
Speaker 1: You can grab that, and it's a positive expected value wager.

306
00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:36,800
Speaker 1: If you guys have been watching the NFL long enough,

307
00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:40,040
Speaker 1: you already know that a lot of times these games

308
00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:42,840
Speaker 1: they start off slow and in the second half it

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Speaker 1: takes on a life of its own. It's a shootout.

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Speaker 1: We read you guys the stats earlier about how the

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Speaker 1: first quarter has been the highest scoring quarter in just

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Speaker 1: one of the last twenty four Super Bowls. So by default,

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Speaker 1: if teams are going to start off slow in the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl, they don't want to throw the game away early.

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Speaker 1: That means that you get a conservative first half and

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Speaker 1: then things tend to pick up in the second half.

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Speaker 1: So highest scoring half minus one forty five. And I

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Speaker 1: have a prop that's actually correlated with that highest scoring quarter.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna go with the third quarter plus five hundred. Look, historically,

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Speaker 1: you look back at all the Super Bowls, the third

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00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:23,360
Speaker 1: quarter is the highest scoring quarter at around eleven and

322
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Speaker 1: a half points per game, and I think at plus

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Speaker 1: five hundred you got a lot of value because, as

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Speaker 1: I mentioned earlier, if one of these teams gets behind

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00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:38,520
Speaker 1: second half, that's throwing. When you look at the Bengals defensively,

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Speaker 1: they ranked fifteenth and yards per play allowed in the

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Speaker 1: third quarter and they've allow eleven drives to reach inside

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Speaker 1: of the ten yard line. So the Rams, if they're behind,

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Speaker 1: they're gonna have an opportunity to catch you up based

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Speaker 1: on this Bengals defense. And then we all know Joe

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Speaker 1: Burrow they're throwing if they're out of a game, Joe Burrow,

332
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Speaker 1: Jamar Chase, Tyler Boyd, they can throw their weight back

333
00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,639
Speaker 1: into a game. So I liked a lot of points

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Speaker 1: in this third quarter, and I also like the second

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Speaker 1: half highest scoring total. Those props are correlated. One is

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Speaker 1: the long shot at plus five hundred, highest scoring quarter,

337
00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:18,840
Speaker 1: third quarter and the second half minus one forty five.

338
00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:21,320
Speaker 1: So either you're gonna hit one of those or two

339
00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:21,720
Speaker 1: of those.

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Speaker 3: All right, My second bet is kind of carrier for

341
00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:26,600
Speaker 3: my first one, and from a total earlier, I am

342
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:30,040
Speaker 3: only leaning on the under on the overall game, but

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Speaker 3: I'm betting the first half under that is at twenty

344
00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:36,080
Speaker 3: four point five, and again it's the same thing. I'm

345
00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:39,440
Speaker 3: expecting a slow start the Bengals. We've talked about it

346
00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:43,520
Speaker 3: the whole playoff run. They are very run heavy, especially

347
00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:46,320
Speaker 3: on early downs. I think the Rams are gonna run

348
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Speaker 3: the ball a bit more, try to protect that offensive line.

349
00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:52,600
Speaker 3: When that choose up the clock and moves the game along.

350
00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:55,280
Speaker 3: We've seen in a lot of these Super Bowls it

351
00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:57,879
Speaker 3: starts out slow. They're kind of feeling each other out.

352
00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:01,240
Speaker 3: They're new here. This is a news stage for both

353
00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:05,600
Speaker 3: of these teams. To the Bengals, especially, the Rams defense

354
00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:09,080
Speaker 3: has been excellent, especially in the first half. They're the

355
00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:12,560
Speaker 3: number two defense by DVA. In the first half, they're

356
00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:16,400
Speaker 3: number two against the run. Both coaches have been conservative.

357
00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:19,600
Speaker 3: Coaches are settling for field goals a lot. So that's

358
00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:22,160
Speaker 3: a good way to go under. I am not expecting

359
00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:25,320
Speaker 3: fireworks early. Maybe as we get going near the end

360
00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:27,080
Speaker 3: of the second quarter and in the second half we

361
00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:29,200
Speaker 3: might get some points. So that's why I'd rather play

362
00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:32,760
Speaker 3: the first half under twenty four and a half. All right,

363
00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:36,400
Speaker 3: My third pick is a money line pick, but it's

364
00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:40,480
Speaker 3: a money line parlay. I like the Rams to get

365
00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:44,239
Speaker 3: the double and win the first half and win the

366
00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:47,119
Speaker 3: full game. You can get that one for plus one twenty,

367
00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,840
Speaker 3: And to me, this is a sneaky way to play

368
00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:54,440
Speaker 3: a Rams money line without having to drink that tough

369
00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:56,200
Speaker 3: juice that you're gonna get if you just play the

370
00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:58,639
Speaker 3: whole game. You see in the stat you watch a

371
00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:00,679
Speaker 3: Rams game, you always see it. The Rams take the

372
00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:04,400
Speaker 3: early lead. John McVay and the Rams are forty five

373
00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:07,879
Speaker 3: and one with a halftime lead. That one was the

374
00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:10,840
Speaker 3: Week eighteen game against the Niners at Stings. That's right there,

375
00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:14,119
Speaker 3: But I think it's especially motivational too, so I like

376
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:18,560
Speaker 3: the Rams to set the tone like the Bengals offense.

377
00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:19,520
Speaker 2: To struggle a little bit early.

378
00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:22,480
Speaker 3: So I think the Rams take the lead by halftime

379
00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:24,760
Speaker 3: and then find a way to hold on late. I

380
00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:26,920
Speaker 3: like the Rams in this game, and I don't want

381
00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:29,080
Speaker 3: to come back there. If the Rams are going to

382
00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:31,080
Speaker 3: win the game, I think they're just the better team.

383
00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:34,359
Speaker 3: They established that early and just control all throughout. So

384
00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:37,600
Speaker 3: plus one twenty I like that way to bet the

385
00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:40,600
Speaker 3: Rams money line and just make sure that they have

386
00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:41,800
Speaker 3: the lead at half as well.

387
00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:44,679
Speaker 1: I have to play this prop. Really really love it.

388
00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:48,640
Speaker 1: Joe Mixon over twenty seven and a half receiving yards.

389
00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:51,520
Speaker 1: There's been a lot of talk about this vaunted Rams

390
00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:55,199
Speaker 1: pass rush Aaron Donald von Miller, and how do you

391
00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:57,960
Speaker 1: beat a prolific pass rush. You throw a screen. So

392
00:19:58,040 --> 00:19:59,840
Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see a lot of dump balls

393
00:19:59,880 --> 00:20:02,200
Speaker 1: to Joe Mixon. He should be able to get over

394
00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:06,840
Speaker 1: twenty seven and a half yard. Next, will Joe Mixon

395
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,439
Speaker 1: score touchdown? I'm going with yes, you can get that

396
00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:12,240
Speaker 1: At even money. I think he finds his way into

397
00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:15,119
Speaker 1: the end zone. They're inside the one, they're inside the five.

398
00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:17,880
Speaker 1: We all know Zach Tayler's going to run the ball,

399
00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:20,040
Speaker 1: so you gotta roll with that. I got another prop

400
00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:22,439
Speaker 1: I really really like. We can go with Tyler Boyd

401
00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:26,520
Speaker 1: over thirty seven and a half receiving yards. Look, this

402
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:29,760
Speaker 1: Rams defense, we all know that they can't guard the

403
00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:33,439
Speaker 1: middle of the field. And you got Jalen Ramsey who's

404
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:36,840
Speaker 1: going to be on Jamar Chase. So I think Tyler

405
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:40,879
Speaker 1: Boyd is going to be that security blanket along with

406
00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:44,200
Speaker 1: Joe Mixon to be able to throw the ball. Look,

407
00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:48,240
Speaker 1: Deebo Samuel, he went off in the NFC Championship Game.

408
00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:50,280
Speaker 1: Tyler Boyd is gonna get a lot of targets in

409
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:52,800
Speaker 1: this game, so I really like the over thirty seven

410
00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:54,879
Speaker 1: and a half yards. I also think you could find

411
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:59,439
Speaker 1: some value with playing his catcher total over and you

412
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 1: could take that all right.

413
00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:04,680
Speaker 3: Fourth one here for me is actually a handful of picks.

414
00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:07,359
Speaker 3: We're gonna get a little crazy, you know, for the

415
00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:10,240
Speaker 3: Super Bowl. We don't always get some of these props otherwise.

416
00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:13,639
Speaker 3: But I gotta go special teams here. I think that

417
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:15,600
Speaker 3: this is about the kickers. So you look at the

418
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:19,000
Speaker 3: kickers on these teams, and Matt Gay has had two

419
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:23,200
Speaker 3: or more field goals in fourteen of nineteen games this season.

420
00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:26,000
Speaker 3: He's had nine field goal attempts in the playoffs. That's

421
00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 3: three per game, so he is routinely getting kicks up.

422
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:32,600
Speaker 3: The Rams are settling. We've been a little upset about that.

423
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:35,679
Speaker 3: Sean McVay is not quiz aggressive as we'd like. So

424
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:37,520
Speaker 3: I like the Rams to get some field goals. I

425
00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:41,359
Speaker 3: definitely like the Bengals to score field goals. We know

426
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:45,199
Speaker 3: the rookie Avan McPherson has been nails all playoffs. In

427
00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:48,359
Speaker 3: three games in the playoffs, he's four for four in

428
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:51,880
Speaker 3: field goals in every single game, he's four for four,

429
00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 3: then four for four again, then four for four in

430
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 3: the AFC Championship three straight games. He's had seven straight

431
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:03,119
Speaker 3: games multiple field goals, and in that stretch twenty two

432
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:05,920
Speaker 3: field goals, so more than three field goals per game.

433
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 3: And again we know these coaches are a bit conservative,

434
00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:09,960
Speaker 3: they're settling.

435
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:12,439
Speaker 2: For field goals. So I've got a whole string of

436
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 2: props and ways you can play this.

437
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,919
Speaker 3: You know, if you follow us over at the Buckets Podcast,

438
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:20,719
Speaker 3: that's our NBA podcast, make sure to watch us there.

439
00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:23,359
Speaker 3: Rahem and I are both on lots of NBA coverage

440
00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:23,959
Speaker 3: going forward.

441
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:25,639
Speaker 2: We talk about escalator props.

442
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 3: It's a chance where you can play a guy to

443
00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:30,399
Speaker 3: go over something and then play a few alternate overs

444
00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:33,920
Speaker 3: as well. So I like Evan McPherson to go over

445
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 3: one point five field goals. That one is at minus

446
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:39,399
Speaker 3: one point fifteen. Remember he's done that in seven straight

447
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 3: games already. But you can also play McPherson to go

448
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 3: over two and a half field goals, so just one

449
00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:48,479
Speaker 3: more field goal at plus two ten and the one

450
00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 3: I really like four or more field goals for McPherson.

451
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:54,160
Speaker 3: Remember he's done that all three playoff games is ten

452
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,760
Speaker 3: to one odds. So I like the escalator prop. You

453
00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 3: put the bulk of your bet on the satest one

454
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 3: there and then a little bit less as you go

455
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:05,160
Speaker 3: up there. But there's a few others here. You can

456
00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 3: also go. Total field goals over three and a half

457
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 3: combined in the game is plus one twenty. I love

458
00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:16,119
Speaker 3: that one. McPherson has had two or more and seventh

459
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:19,120
Speaker 3: straight and Gay has had two more fourteen of nineteen,

460
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:22,160
Speaker 3: so that one looks good to me. Both teams two

461
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:26,160
Speaker 3: field goals at plus two fifty. That's a similar sort

462
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 3: of bet. We might not get it if only one

463
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:30,680
Speaker 3: of our guys gets one, So it's kind of a

464
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:34,399
Speaker 3: slight way of escalating the total field goals over and

465
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 3: then here's a crazy one for you, just in case.

466
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:40,359
Speaker 3: In case McPherson really does go four for four, he

467
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:43,440
Speaker 3: would set the all time record for most field goals

468
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,919
Speaker 3: in a playoffs, breaking Adam and Atiri. We know how

469
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,639
Speaker 3: great he is, and if the Bengals do win, I

470
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 3: think it would be a close one. Maybe the kicker,

471
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:54,120
Speaker 3: the rookie comes on the field and gets the game

472
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 3: winning field goal. The Bengals have five wins by field

473
00:23:56,840 --> 00:24:00,399
Speaker 3: goal or less. Evan McPherson is a one one hundred

474
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 3: and fifty to one to win the Super Bowl.

475
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 2: MVP.

476
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 3: I know it's crazy. We've never had a kicker win

477
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:09,119
Speaker 3: it before. We have had a kicker win regular season MVP.

478
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 3: I might just nibble a little bit just in case

479
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 3: the Rams offense gets shut down again and McPherson is

480
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 3: the hero. So those are my ridiculous but fun picker picks.

481
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 3: All right, give us your fourth pick for him.

482
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:27,200
Speaker 1: We're gonna go with Joe Burrow. We'll have more passing

483
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 1: yards in which half we're gonna go with the second half.

484
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 1: That's minus one thirty five. If I'm expecting more points

485
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,160
Speaker 1: than the second half, that means Joe Burrow is gonna

486
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 1: have to have more passing yards than the second half.

487
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:43,919
Speaker 1: Next up, total field goals by the Cincinnati Bengals. This

488
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:47,720
Speaker 1: is also correlated with those second half props. We're gonna

489
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:51,159
Speaker 1: go with field goals by the Bengals first half over

490
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,480
Speaker 1: zero point five field goals. I think you're gonna get

491
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 1: some field goals from the Bengals in the first half.

492
00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 1: We saw their drives stole out all through the playoffs,

493
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:00,920
Speaker 1: so we'll get a go there, all right.

494
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 3: For my last pick, I am going with a bit

495
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 3: of a hedge here. It goes against my other picks here,

496
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 3: but I think if the Bengals do win, I don't

497
00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:11,440
Speaker 3: expect them to be able to run away and hide here.

498
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:14,159
Speaker 3: Maybe Matt Stafford gets that late pick six trying to

499
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 3: play hero ball, but I think the Bengals win, it's

500
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 3: going to be a close, tight win. So I like

501
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 3: just as a little hedge Bengals to win by one,

502
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:25,359
Speaker 3: two or three points. You can play that at nine

503
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:27,160
Speaker 3: to one odds at bet MGM.

504
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:28,359
Speaker 2: So that's my hedge.

505
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:32,199
Speaker 3: The Bengals have played in a ton of one score

506
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:36,160
Speaker 3: games already, twelve one score games this season. They've won

507
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:40,440
Speaker 3: by exactly a field goal five times already. I think

508
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:42,920
Speaker 3: that there's a lot of scenarios if the Bengals do win,

509
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 3: where they win by a late drive and a tie game,

510
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 3: or maybe down a point or two and that rookie

511
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:51,880
Speaker 3: McPherson comes on for the field goal at nine to one.

512
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 3: That for me is a great hedge in case I'm

513
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 3: wrong about all a lot of the Rams stuff. So

514
00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 3: I will just nibble a little bit on that one.

515
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 3: Just to kind of round out my Super Bowl portfolio.

516
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 1: I gotta go with this one. Cooper Cup over one

517
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:08,360
Speaker 1: hundred and five and a half receiving yards. I think

518
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:10,399
Speaker 1: you can play this up to about one ten. The

519
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 1: way Cooper Cup is playing right now, they might have

520
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 1: to steroid test this guy because nobody can stop this

521
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:20,440
Speaker 1: guy double coverage, it doesn't matter, and he's getting open.

522
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 1: He's looking at ten, eleven, twelve, thirteen targets and every

523
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:27,680
Speaker 1: single one of these games. And one of the things

524
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,399
Speaker 1: that I've been speaking about all year is that this

525
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 1: Bengals defense, they're just a fourteenth and passing dv away

526
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:38,639
Speaker 1: and they've played just an average schedule of opposing offenses.

527
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:44,120
Speaker 1: So when they do play opposing solid offenses, other teams

528
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:45,919
Speaker 1: are able to light them up. You look at the

529
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,720
Speaker 1: Cincinnati Bengals. They allow two hundred and six yards to

530
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,679
Speaker 1: Devonte Adams, one hundred and ten of Mike Williams, one

531
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:55,159
Speaker 1: hundred and forty two yards to aj Brown. Cooper Cup

532
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 1: is just he's out here. I mean, he's getting over

533
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 1: one hundred and five yards thirteen many times this season.

534
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 1: So you got to put this one over. I know

535
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 1: it's expensive, but I love it, so I think Cooper

536
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:08,880
Speaker 1: Cup gets it done. And there you have it all.

537
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:10,360
Speaker 3: Right, Well, that is going to wrap it up here

538
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 3: at the Action Network Podcast. Don't forget to download the

539
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:16,399
Speaker 3: app if you haven't, and please rate and review the

540
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:20,000
Speaker 3: podcast on Apple and Spotify. You know that we've got

541
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:23,359
Speaker 3: you covered for everything you need here this week and

542
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 3: everywhere at the Action Network. You can follow the feed

543
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:29,880
Speaker 3: here on the Action Network Podcast. We give you the

544
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:31,400
Speaker 3: full super Bowl preview.

545
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:31,960
Speaker 2: Later this week.

546
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:35,399
Speaker 3: Follow us on Fantasy Flex podcast Get you Ready for

547
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 3: all the props and everything you need. Make sure to

548
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 3: check out the Favorites with Chad Millman and Simon Hunter.

549
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 3: They have got you covered already a couple episodes last

550
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 3: week and several more to come this week. Raheen Palmer,

551
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:51,399
Speaker 3: I'm Brandon Anderson and this has been the Action Network Podcast.

552
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:53,879
Speaker 2: We will see you at the Super Bowl.

553
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:06,400
Speaker 1: Spage to the spae D Space