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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a Saturday

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Speaker 1: morning episode of the Daily Juice Podcast. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Perolt. You guys can follow me across all of

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Speaker 1: my socials at Sports Talk Matt in this podcast being

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Speaker 1: brought to you by our friends at DraftKings, the Draftking

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Speaker 1: Pick six with the code Juice. You play five dollars,

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Speaker 1: you get fifty dollars back instantly in Pick six credits. Okay,

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Speaker 1: get comfortable. I got a lot to get to. I

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Speaker 1: have five official plays for us. I have a couple

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Speaker 1: of other bets you can also jump into if you'd

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Speaker 1: like to as well. On this sports extravaganza. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we're talking college football playoff games, huge NFL football games,

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Speaker 1: college basketball, a monster heavyweight fight in Saudi Arabia between

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Speaker 1: Tyson Fury and Alexander Usik. We've got NHL games, NBA games.

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Speaker 1: I mean, my goodness, gracious, do we have an awesome,

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Speaker 1: awesome day of sports. Get comfortable. I got picks and

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Speaker 1: plays and bets for us all coming up. One quick

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Speaker 1: thing to say about Indiana. I'm sorry for the bet.

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Speaker 1: My bad, My bad, Indiana plus seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: Awful bet. They lost by ten over fifty two never

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Speaker 1: was even close to happening. Oh and two down two

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Speaker 1: point three units on the day yesterday we snapped the

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Speaker 1: three game losing streak or sorry, winning streak rather for Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday.

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Speaker 1: We come in with a loser on Friday. Why am

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Speaker 1: I apologizing? I've lost two bets before and gone oh

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Speaker 1: to two not that uncommon. I'm apologizing because if that

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Speaker 1: game had been played on December third, I would have

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Speaker 1: bet on Notre Dame. Now it would have been sweaty

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Speaker 1: at the end, but I would have bet on Notre Dame.

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Speaker 1: Why Indiana was a fraud? I knew they were a fraud.

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Speaker 1: I set it on the discord chat when we had

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Speaker 1: the bracket come out in Indiana was a part of it.

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Speaker 1: I was ferociously angry at Indiana being a part of

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Speaker 1: that bracket. Going on the road against Indiana, two hundred

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Speaker 1: mile ride might have been two thousand mile ride because

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Speaker 1: they weren't even the same league. And I don't think

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Speaker 1: the Irish are all that good, okay, think that they're

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Speaker 1: an average football team playing at home. No killer instinct

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Speaker 1: couldn't have other than the out of the ninety eight

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Speaker 1: yard run by love. They didn't do very much offensively.

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Speaker 1: I don't like Leonard all that much. I love their defense.

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Speaker 1: But against Georgia, I'll take Georgia's defense to really shut

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Speaker 1: down that Irish offense. Low scoring game. Bet the under

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Speaker 1: in that game. We'll talk about that later on, but

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Speaker 1: that's an under game. Bereatween Georgia and the Irish. Well boy,

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's going to be a low total, low game,

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Speaker 1: low scoring game. But Indiana, we knew what they were,

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Speaker 1: you know, distilled the Dennis screen line. They are who

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Speaker 1: we thought they were. They just lived up to it.

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Speaker 1: They had no business being in the bracket none. They've

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Speaker 1: played two teams this year too, Ohio State on the road,

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Speaker 1: got worked Notre Dame on the road and got worked.

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Speaker 1: Schedule strength needs to be a thing. Forget how many

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Speaker 1: points you win by against cream puff teams. Did you

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Speaker 1: play anybody of value? Talent matters in this tournament? Okay,

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Speaker 1: talent matters. Georgia six to one to win at all.

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Speaker 1: Talent matters. That's why I bet Georgia. Okay, talent matters

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Speaker 1: also draw matters too. But Georgia getting Notre Dame, I

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Speaker 1: think is a very good thing. The Irish will have

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Speaker 1: their hands full even with the backup quarterback I love.

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Speaker 1: Look well, we'll get to it later, but Stockton's not.

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Speaker 1: I'm not worried about Stockton at the quarterback spot for Georgia.

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Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be just fine, having the ability

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Speaker 1: to run the football a lot more. He'll be much

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Speaker 1: more of a running quarterback than a throwing quartererback, which

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Speaker 1: you saw the game tonight. They were opportunities, but the

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Speaker 1: quarterback for Indiana just runs in molasses, couldn't get away

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Speaker 1: from some pretty slow defensive linemen for Notre Dame. Not

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Speaker 1: going to be the case against Georgia, especially with Etn

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Speaker 1: running the football as well. So get to that later.

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Speaker 1: But I like George's chances even though they are only

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Speaker 1: a minus one favorite. They were a dog. The look

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Speaker 1: ahead line was the Iris minus two and a half.

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Speaker 1: Now it's Georgia minus one. So respect for the dogs

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Speaker 1: with the reset for the sports books, rightfully. So all right,

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Speaker 1: So I've got two bets to go today in college football,

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Speaker 1: one in college basketball, one in the NFL, and one

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Speaker 1: in boxing. So five plays in total to give you

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Speaker 1: guys here in just one second. By the way, I

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Speaker 1: know I have nothing on Tennessee Ohio State. You can

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Speaker 1: bet the under, but I have no idea what to

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Speaker 1: do with that game. I am completely clueless on that game.

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Speaker 1: I lean towards the under. That's it. But Tennessee can score.

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Speaker 1: Josh Hipel Jedshehipo is really good on the road. Get

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Speaker 1: this number for josh Hipel just if you want to

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Speaker 1: bet it. Just here's a number for you to kind

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Speaker 1: of go really wild. Josh Hipel on neutral site in

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Speaker 1: road games is thirty nine in one ats in the

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Speaker 1: first half as a head coach, covering every game by

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Speaker 1: over a field goal. Okay, just saying, maybe a decent

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Speaker 1: bet if you want to make it Tennessee in the

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Speaker 1: first half against Ohio State plus a couple of points, two, three,

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Speaker 1: four points, Probably not a bad bet and probably a

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Speaker 1: bet that I'm going to be on here for Tennessee

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Speaker 1: and Ohio State. But I've got nothing official on Tennessee

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Speaker 1: and Ohio State. This podcast is being brought to you

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Speaker 1: got a lot of things to get to here on

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Speaker 1: the Daily Juice podcast. Let's start here with the first

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Speaker 1: game of the day with Penn State and Penn State

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Speaker 1: at home here up against SMU. It's gonna be chilly cold. Look,

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Speaker 1: we don't bet the wet, we bet the wins. But

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Speaker 1: win's not gonna be a really big part here. Okay.

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Speaker 1: The total is fifty three and a half. Penn State

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Speaker 1: is five and two to the under at home this year,

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Speaker 1: SMU is facing a defense that's going to be able

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Speaker 1: to run with them. This is not the acc Okay,

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Speaker 1: this is the Big Ten. This is the Big Ten

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Speaker 1: on the road and Happy Valley in December and you

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Speaker 1: saw what happened. Even Indiana had a hard time on

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Speaker 1: the road against the Irish. This is a team from Dallas,

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Speaker 1: Texas going up to Happy Valley to play in a

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Speaker 1: place that they've never played before. Look, I like Penn

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Speaker 1: State to cover the eight points. Okay, I think Penn

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Speaker 1: State wins this game. But I am afraid of James Franklin.

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Speaker 1: I'd be lying if I didn't tell you that James

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Speaker 1: Franklin against the Number is extremely worrisome. The guy just

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Speaker 1: flat out sucks against top fifteen teams. There's no other

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Speaker 1: way else to say it about how bad James Franklin

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Speaker 1: is in a big game. SMU is eleventh in the

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Speaker 1: Ladies Poll. Franklin has faced thirty nine opponents ranked in

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Speaker 1: the top fifteen. He's seven and thirty two straight up

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Speaker 1: in those games. This would be the biggest favorite in

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Speaker 1: any of those games where it's currently an eight point favorite.

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Speaker 1: As either a favorite or an underdog of four points

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Speaker 1: or fewer, He's four and ten straight up against top

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Speaker 1: fifteen teams. The vast majority of those games are against

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Speaker 1: Ohio State in Michigan. Okay, so he just hasn't done well. However,

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Speaker 1: Penn State off of a loss is eighteen and four

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Speaker 1: straight up, but just nine twelve in one against the

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Speaker 1: Number when they are favored by seven points or more

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Speaker 1: coming off of a game in which they have lost.

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Speaker 1: This is not great. Okay. I'm very concerned about this

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Speaker 1: in terms of him covering the eight. They can win

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Speaker 1: by seven absolutely backdoor. You saw it almost here last

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Speaker 1: night with Indiana. We almost got there, seven and a half,

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Speaker 1: almost came in. They lost by ten, then a two

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Speaker 1: point conversion to cut it down to eight. We were

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Speaker 1: lost in the hook. So I'd rather not the last

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Speaker 1: night's game and SMU Penn State might be very, very similar. Okay.

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Speaker 1: I think the safer play is just to say SMU

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Speaker 1: is not gonna score like SMU is gonna get dominated,

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Speaker 1: and they're not gonna be able to move the football

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Speaker 1: up against this Penn State defense, which is just stout.

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Speaker 1: I mean just absolutely and totally stout. I look at

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Speaker 1: this Penn State team five and two to the over

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Speaker 1: SMU this year. Okay, So where do they go on

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Speaker 1: the road. They went to Nevada. That game was under.

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Speaker 1: They went to Louisville. That game was over. Every game

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Speaker 1: for Louisville was over. They went to Stanford, that game

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Speaker 1: was under. They went to Duke, that game was over.

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Speaker 1: They went to Virginia, that game was under. They played

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Speaker 1: Clemson on a neutral in the ACEC Championship game, and

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Speaker 1: the game flew over by eight and a half points

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Speaker 1: thirty four thirty one, this total being fifty three and

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Speaker 1: a half. For me, you look at just where we

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Speaker 1: are with Penn State at home Bowling Green was fifty one.

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Speaker 1: Game went over by ten points. Back in September, Kent

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Speaker 1: State was fifty eight. It was fifty six. Nothing. Game

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Speaker 1: went under against Illinois it was forty eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: Twenty one to seven. Game went under against UCLA it

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Speaker 1: was forty eight. Twenty seven to eleven. Game went under

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Speaker 1: against Ohio State forty seven and a half. It went

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Speaker 1: under by fourteen and a half, twenty to thirteen against

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Speaker 1: Washington forty eight, went under thirty five to six to

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Speaker 1: win for Penn State under by seven. Now the last

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Speaker 1: home game against Maryland four twenty four to seven. Game

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Speaker 1: went under, Sorry, went over by half a point. It

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Speaker 1: was fifty and a half. This is fifty three and

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Speaker 1: a half. This is too many points. Okay, this is

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Speaker 1: too many points in my mind for a Penn State

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Speaker 1: game where you know James Franklin is going to play conservatively, Like,

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Speaker 1: I can't see James Franklin not trying to run the

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Speaker 1: ball consistently here and really use the running attack for

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Speaker 1: Penn State up against an SMU rushing defense that on

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Speaker 1: paper is pretty good, but they haven't seen a Penn

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Speaker 1: State offensive line they haven't seen a big ten offensive line,

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Speaker 1: and they haven't seen twenty five degree temperatures with a

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Speaker 1: Penn State offensive line in Happy Valley with the white out,

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Speaker 1: I just think it's going to be a grinder of

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Speaker 1: a game for Penn State. I think they run the ball,

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Speaker 1: they run the clock. Fifty three and a half is

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Speaker 1: too many points. We're going under Penn State and SMU

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Speaker 1: under fifty three and a half to start the day

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Speaker 1: off noon Eastern time o'clock in the morning Pacific time

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Speaker 1: start for Penn State and SMU under fifty three and

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Speaker 1: a half for one point one units. I will be

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Speaker 1: on Penn State minus eight. Okay, I will lay the

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00:12:09,679 --> 00:12:11,480
Speaker 1: eight with Penn State, I do think, but I can't

216
00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:13,600
Speaker 1: make it official because I do not trust jans Franklin

217
00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:17,600
Speaker 1: as a dangerous place like I mentioned, you know, with

218
00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:21,040
Speaker 1: the other game with Tennessee and Ohio State. I think

219
00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:23,760
Speaker 1: first half Tennessee is a good play. Going to be

220
00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:25,680
Speaker 1: on that first half of the Tennessee. But I don't

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00:12:25,679 --> 00:12:27,360
Speaker 1: want any part of the game under For the game

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00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:30,199
Speaker 1: probably if you had to bet it there but under

223
00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:33,840
Speaker 1: fifty three and a half Penn State and SMU. But

224
00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:35,280
Speaker 1: I think you can lay the eight points two with

225
00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:37,120
Speaker 1: Penn State. If you want something else on that game

226
00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:41,840
Speaker 1: coming up. The other game is Texas and Clemson. Man,

227
00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:46,319
Speaker 1: this number is big, This number is ridiculous. Thirteen thirteen

228
00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:49,400
Speaker 1: and a half. What are we doing? It's a playoff game. Clemson,

229
00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:53,960
Speaker 1: that bad ACC that bad Clemson got in. SMU won.

230
00:12:54,200 --> 00:12:57,520
Speaker 1: Clemson got in. They were the second to last team

231
00:12:57,679 --> 00:13:02,040
Speaker 1: you know, to get in here, and Indiana was questionable.

232
00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:05,480
Speaker 1: Clemson's questionable. SMU won the ACC so they got in.

233
00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:11,600
Speaker 1: Clemson to the under on the road this year four

234
00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:15,240
Speaker 1: and two. Texas at home to the under this year

235
00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:18,480
Speaker 1: four two and one. Last four games of the year

236
00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:22,040
Speaker 1: went under for Texas, and if you go all the

237
00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:26,000
Speaker 1: way back to the twenty first of September, only one

238
00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:29,200
Speaker 1: game has gone over for the Texas Longhorns. That was

239
00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:32,280
Speaker 1: on that was at home against Florida. Total was forty nine.

240
00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:36,840
Speaker 1: They scored forty nine one, forty nine seventeen. Every other

241
00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:41,000
Speaker 1: game under, and we we got to this level of

242
00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:45,480
Speaker 1: a total. We crossed fifty at home this year. There

243
00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:54,840
Speaker 1: were one game against Georgia and one game against Missippi State. Louisiana,

244
00:13:54,920 --> 00:14:01,920
Speaker 1: Monroe and Texas San Antonio and Colorado fifty Every game

245
00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:06,320
Speaker 1: went under. Every one of those games went under. Sorry

246
00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:08,920
Speaker 1: UTSA did not know so everyone but the UTSA game.

247
00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:10,880
Speaker 1: That game went over by seven and a half, fifty

248
00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:14,440
Speaker 1: six to seven. But against Georgia, you know, this is

249
00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:16,959
Speaker 1: a playoff game type thing, right, thirty to fifteen. They

250
00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:19,520
Speaker 1: lost under by eleven and a half points. When they

251
00:14:19,560 --> 00:14:21,640
Speaker 1: go in Kentucky forty six and a half thirty one

252
00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:23,960
Speaker 1: to fourteen win game went under by one and a

253
00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:27,680
Speaker 1: half points. Oklahoma was was a neutral site game for

254
00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:31,880
Speaker 1: them in the Red River that was forty nine when

255
00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:35,520
Speaker 1: under by twelve points. This Texas defense is tremendous. I

256
00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:38,520
Speaker 1: don't know how many points Clemson scores. This is the problem.

257
00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:42,280
Speaker 1: On the flip side, I think Clemson's defense is a

258
00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:45,040
Speaker 1: little bit underrated. I think Texas is going to face

259
00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:49,400
Speaker 1: a defense that could hold them down. Georgia gave them

260
00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:52,120
Speaker 1: the blueprint, right, just go ahead and take away the

261
00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:55,440
Speaker 1: run and make them throw, make Quinn yours throw the football.

262
00:14:55,840 --> 00:15:00,480
Speaker 1: And Clemson's secondary is you know, decent, now outstanding, decent.

263
00:15:01,280 --> 00:15:03,240
Speaker 1: Six point two yards per pass play is twenty in

264
00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:06,000
Speaker 1: the country. They do give up four point five yards

265
00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:08,040
Speaker 1: per rush. That's so how many yards on average Texas

266
00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:11,880
Speaker 1: runs as well, seventy seventh for Clemson. Defensively, that's not great.

267
00:15:12,240 --> 00:15:14,480
Speaker 1: They give up twenty three points. That's top forty in

268
00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:18,080
Speaker 1: the country. Texas twelve point five, top two in the country. Here,

269
00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:20,320
Speaker 1: just don't know how many points Clemson in Cape Cludon

270
00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:23,600
Speaker 1: is gonna store score. Can have turnovers. Just can't have

271
00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:26,480
Speaker 1: Cape Cludik turn the football over. But this could be

272
00:15:26,520 --> 00:15:28,880
Speaker 1: a route. I mean, this could be like thirty to three.

273
00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:33,280
Speaker 1: This might be an absolute she lacking with Tennessee cleaning

274
00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:36,440
Speaker 1: Clemson's clock. But I'm just gonna go ahead and bet

275
00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:38,160
Speaker 1: the under in this game. I'm gonna come in and

276
00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:42,080
Speaker 1: just fifty and a half, come and bet the under.

277
00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:45,360
Speaker 1: I just think this is too many points for Texas,

278
00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:47,080
Speaker 1: and the weather won't be a problem. It's mean sixty degree,

279
00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:49,160
Speaker 1: it's gonna be bombing, it's gonna beautiful. I just think

280
00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:51,800
Speaker 1: Texas runs around, their defense runs around, and really Clemson

281
00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:53,960
Speaker 1: has a tough time scoring. I'd rather just you can

282
00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:56,080
Speaker 1: bet Clemson team total under if you want to. We

283
00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:58,360
Speaker 1: want to bet that that. That's not a horrible play either,

284
00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:01,440
Speaker 1: if you want to jump in on that. So the

285
00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:04,680
Speaker 1: two plays for the College foot playoff under fifty three

286
00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:07,800
Speaker 1: and a half Penn State SMU and under fifteen and

287
00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:11,480
Speaker 1: a half for Texas and Clemson. Since the theme here

288
00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:15,160
Speaker 1: today there kind of is one, Let's go to the NFL.

289
00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:18,040
Speaker 1: Let's talk about Lamar Jackson and his struggles against the

290
00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:20,200
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers. He is one in four straight up and

291
00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:22,760
Speaker 1: z one to five against the number against Mike Tomlin

292
00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:26,120
Speaker 1: and the Steelers. Against everybody else, he's fifty two thirty

293
00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:31,160
Speaker 1: nine one ATS. That is brutal, brutal. Over the last

294
00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:35,480
Speaker 1: twenty years, the underdog in the Steelers Ravens rivalry is

295
00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:39,560
Speaker 1: covering at a seventy four percent clip twenty nine to

296
00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:42,920
Speaker 1: ten in three and the regular season, when the line

297
00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:46,120
Speaker 1: is three or more, the dog is twenty three four

298
00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:51,560
Speaker 1: in three. Underdog is sixteen two in one ATS. When

299
00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:54,800
Speaker 1: the spread is five point six or more in the

300
00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:58,680
Speaker 1: regular season, the underdog when Tomlin is facing John Harbaugh

301
00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:03,360
Speaker 1: is twenty four six and three. Since twenty twenty, the

302
00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:07,440
Speaker 1: final margin between these teams is two seven seven three

303
00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:11,840
Speaker 1: two three one five four The line six and a half,

304
00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:17,159
Speaker 1: six and a half. What is going on? The number

305
00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:20,000
Speaker 1: for this game started at forty five or forty six.

306
00:17:20,359 --> 00:17:23,040
Speaker 1: Over the last twenty years, when the total is forty

307
00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:26,399
Speaker 1: five or higher, the under is seven and two. With

308
00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:29,360
Speaker 1: these two teams play, the under has gone on has

309
00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:33,600
Speaker 1: hit for eight straight meetings between the Steelers and the Ravens. Okay,

310
00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:37,880
Speaker 1: so what am I doing here? I think the Ravens

311
00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:41,200
Speaker 1: win because they have to. No, George Pickens is a

312
00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,280
Speaker 1: huge factory in this game because Russell Wilson can't move

313
00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:47,000
Speaker 1: the football. Steelers couldn't move the ball on the Eagles,

314
00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:51,440
Speaker 1: but the Ravens don't have the Eagles defense. Like there's

315
00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:55,560
Speaker 1: no Cooper dejen running around in the back for the Ravens.

316
00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:57,320
Speaker 1: And I like Kyle Hamilton, Don't get me wrong. I

317
00:17:57,359 --> 00:17:59,800
Speaker 1: like him. You can't run on these guys, but you

318
00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:02,680
Speaker 1: can throw on the Ravens. We've talked about this all year.

319
00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:07,240
Speaker 1: You can throw on the Ravens. For that reason, I'm

320
00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:10,360
Speaker 1: not petrified of the total, but I'm a little petrified

321
00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:13,800
Speaker 1: of this total. I'm a little scared of it. This

322
00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:17,240
Speaker 1: is same game teaser written all over it. Okay, this

323
00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:20,320
Speaker 1: is go ahead, and let's go and take the Steelers

324
00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:23,439
Speaker 1: up to thirteen, and let's go from forty six and

325
00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:26,199
Speaker 1: from forty four and a half, and let's go up

326
00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:29,240
Speaker 1: to four to fifty one and a half and go under. Okay,

327
00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:33,000
Speaker 1: just again, I just read off those trends. Let's go

328
00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:36,639
Speaker 1: Steelers plus thirteen and under fifty one and a half

329
00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:39,119
Speaker 1: for one point two units. Sorry, that should be one

330
00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:42,199
Speaker 1: point two one point one. That's one point two units.

331
00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:46,359
Speaker 1: Same game, teaser, Steelers plus thirteen under fifty one and

332
00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:48,040
Speaker 1: a half. I have no idea what to do with

333
00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:51,399
Speaker 1: the Texans. None Texans against the Chiefs. That feels like

334
00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:54,520
Speaker 1: the Charger game. Chiefs win by two, but I can't

335
00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:57,879
Speaker 1: trust the Texans at all. Their offensive line is so bad,

336
00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:01,359
Speaker 1: like so bad against that Chiefs defense. That game might

337
00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:05,560
Speaker 1: get ugly. If the Texans can't protect CJ. Stroud and

338
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:08,480
Speaker 1: he gets rushed and he starts throwing jump balls and

339
00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:11,720
Speaker 1: strip sacks and stuff like that. I want no part

340
00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:14,720
Speaker 1: of the Texans at all. That's a danger danger, danger

341
00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:16,879
Speaker 1: spot for me. So no play at all in the

342
00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:20,560
Speaker 1: Texans in the chief game. But my gut tells me

343
00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:23,480
Speaker 1: that the Chiefs can't cover that, but I want no

344
00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:24,960
Speaker 1: part of betting it, because, like I just said, I

345
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:28,000
Speaker 1: think the Office's line is so bad. All right, big

346
00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:31,720
Speaker 1: college basketball game, Purdue and Auburn, number two team in

347
00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:35,040
Speaker 1: the country, Auburn ranked number one on Kempom. They have

348
00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:39,639
Speaker 1: a massive injury, just a massive injury, I don't think.

349
00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:44,639
Speaker 1: And this bet is because Broom's not playing. Hurt the

350
00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:48,280
Speaker 1: shoulder against Texas A and M. All accounts is he's

351
00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:51,520
Speaker 1: not playing in this game. Okay, If he plays, this

352
00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:54,320
Speaker 1: BET's gone get out of it. Okay. If Broom is

353
00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:57,119
Speaker 1: in the lineup for Auburn, punt out of this bet,

354
00:19:57,320 --> 00:20:00,399
Speaker 1: all right. The total is one fifty Auburn's fa by

355
00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:03,119
Speaker 1: eight and a half. Here in this game, these teams

356
00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:06,760
Speaker 1: are pretty much over teams four and one Auburn over

357
00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:09,960
Speaker 1: their last five to the over, three and two over

358
00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:12,159
Speaker 1: the last five for Purdue to the over. On the

359
00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:15,720
Speaker 1: road Perdue, though, is three and two to the over.

360
00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:18,520
Speaker 1: Under Starry three to two to the under. Auburn is

361
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,040
Speaker 1: four and two to the over. Last game for Purdue

362
00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:24,199
Speaker 1: against six A and M. Game went under seventy to

363
00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:26,360
Speaker 1: sixty six. It was one forty three, went under by

364
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:29,399
Speaker 1: seven points. But last game against Georgia State went over

365
00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:32,640
Speaker 1: for Auburn in a one hundred and fifty nine victory.

366
00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:34,200
Speaker 1: That was the time. That was the game that Bruin

367
00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:37,960
Speaker 1: got hurt against Ohio State. Game went under one fifty

368
00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:39,679
Speaker 1: one and a half game went under. They won the

369
00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:42,840
Speaker 1: game ninety one to fifty three. Kempom has this at

370
00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 1: one fifty five. Okay tolls one fifty, so Kenpom says

371
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 1: it's an over. But I don't believe Broom's gonna play.

372
00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,440
Speaker 1: That's the best player in the SEC, maybe the best

373
00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:58,280
Speaker 1: player in college basketball. I think Perdue is going to

374
00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:02,320
Speaker 1: try to slow this game down. Why because Perdue, for

375
00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:05,879
Speaker 1: their average possession length is three hundred and thirteenth in

376
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:10,200
Speaker 1: college basketball. They have no desire to play fast with Auburn.

377
00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:13,159
Speaker 1: They also don't rebound the basketball all that well, so

378
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,120
Speaker 1: I don't think they want to get into an uptempo

379
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,120
Speaker 1: game with a lot of possessions because I think they're

380
00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,280
Speaker 1: gonna get with brow him out, it'll be a little

381
00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:21,840
Speaker 1: easier for them. He's six foot nine, he's a big rebounder.

382
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:24,480
Speaker 1: But not having him on the court for Auburn again,

383
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:27,760
Speaker 1: their number one offense inefficiency number six in effective field

384
00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:30,680
Speaker 1: goal percentage, they're seventh and two point percentage. They're forty

385
00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:33,800
Speaker 1: third and three point percentage Auburn's tremendous. I think Auburn

386
00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:35,520
Speaker 1: could win this game, should win this game. It should

387
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:38,320
Speaker 1: win this game going away. It's in Birmingham, though, this

388
00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:41,439
Speaker 1: is a neutral. This is semi neutral. It's an Auburn

389
00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:47,000
Speaker 1: home game, but it's not on campus. Okay, Perdue defensively

390
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 1: isn't horrible. There's sixty seventh in efficiency, one hundred and

391
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:54,400
Speaker 1: thirty sixth in field goal percentage, effective field goal percentage

392
00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:56,760
Speaker 1: one hundred and ten and three point defense one hundred

393
00:21:56,760 --> 00:22:00,920
Speaker 1: and eighty sixth and two point defense. Not great, but

394
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:05,280
Speaker 1: they also defensively make you work. They're one hundred and

395
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 1: twenty first in average possession length. Auburn equally makes you work.

396
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 1: They're two hundred and eighty seventh eighteen average eighteen seconds

397
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 1: average possession. So Auburn plays, Purdue plays slow, and Auburn

398
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 1: makes you work. That means long possessions. Auburn also can

399
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:27,879
Speaker 1: kill you with runs, and Purdue knows this. Auburn can

400
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 1: go on ten oh runs on a blink and all

401
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 1: of a sudden they're hitting threes. They're running. Purdue's not

402
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 1: gonna want that. Matt Painters are a very good coach.

403
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:39,119
Speaker 1: I think they slow it down. I'm gonna play the

404
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:43,920
Speaker 1: under under one p fifty for Purdue in Auburn, long possessions.

405
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:48,240
Speaker 1: No Broom again, if Bruin's not playing, that's a huge factor. Okay.

406
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 1: If Broom's in there, can't bet him, Okay, Okay, this

407
00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:54,720
Speaker 1: game is bet bety over. Okay, we'll We're going bet

408
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:57,119
Speaker 1: the over foot get out of this bet okay. But

409
00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 1: if he's out with the shoulder injury. This is a

410
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:01,960
Speaker 1: four to thirty off on ESPN for thirty Eastern tip

411
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:05,399
Speaker 1: off on ESPN under one point fifty for Purdue in

412
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 1: Auburn for one point one units. And finally, this is

413
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 1: normally a nightcap. This is not a nightcap. This is

414
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 1: a three pm Pacific time, six pm Eastern Time heavyweight

415
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:22,919
Speaker 1: championship fight of the World. Tyson Fury up against Alexander Usik.

416
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:26,240
Speaker 1: This is going to be amazing. These guys engaged in

417
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:30,640
Speaker 1: an eight minute staredown between The size difference is dramatic.

418
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 1: It's like two eighty two twenty five for Tyson Fury.

419
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,679
Speaker 1: Tyson Fury is a plus one to twenty dog. Okay.

420
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 1: Everyone's saying to bet Usik, I bet Usik. In the

421
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:43,959
Speaker 1: first fight. If you remember back in May, right, Usik's

422
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 1: the better boxer, no debating it. But I love talking

423
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,159
Speaker 1: to my boxing coaches here in Vegas, and for the

424
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:53,120
Speaker 1: most part, all of them have said the same thing.

425
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:57,160
Speaker 1: In the first match, Usik got hurt with an upper cut,

426
00:23:57,160 --> 00:24:00,720
Speaker 1: and the coaches couldn't figure out why Tyson Fury kept

427
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:04,399
Speaker 1: on going back. Why do he allow Usik to push

428
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:08,159
Speaker 1: him the smaller man, the shorter man. Why did they

429
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 1: allow him to push him up against the ropes. It

430
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:13,680
Speaker 1: was a horrible strategy. It didn't make any sense. It's

431
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,439
Speaker 1: like Fury expected a one or two knockout punch to

432
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:19,840
Speaker 1: end Usik, and when it didn't happen, things got problematic.

433
00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:23,520
Speaker 1: He didn't take him seriously. According to Tyson Fury, whether

434
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:25,600
Speaker 1: you care about this stuff or not, he hasn't talked

435
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:28,399
Speaker 1: to his wife in three months. Does it matter? Not

436
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 1: really to me. He can't fight off the back foot.

437
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:35,360
Speaker 1: If he goes forward, he should win this. I don't

438
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:37,119
Speaker 1: care about the narrative saying, oh, it's going to be

439
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 1: a trilogy and everything else. Okay, you get plus money

440
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 1: on a money line play, so you get the knockout

441
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:45,119
Speaker 1: and you get the money line on a decision that

442
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 1: could go our way because boxers boxing would love to

443
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,920
Speaker 1: see a trilogy fight between these three, and boxing loves

444
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,360
Speaker 1: that trilogy Fight's just how it is big money for that.

445
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:57,440
Speaker 1: Usik wins the first, Fury wins the second, Let's see

446
00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 1: what happens in the third. Fury also confirmed he said,

447
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 1: not in a million years when you retire after this fight,

448
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,119
Speaker 1: win or lose. He's not retiring, so that's not on

449
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:10,479
Speaker 1: his mind at all. Usik is an incredible fighter. I

450
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:14,040
Speaker 1: love him, I do, but this is not a guy

451
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 1: who's a true heavyweight. If Fury uses his length and

452
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't need his weight. I don't need

453
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:22,879
Speaker 1: him to lean on him. That didn't work in the

454
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 1: first fight. He can't do that again. He didn't tire

455
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,919
Speaker 1: out Usik. Usik's got a grappling background. Usik is a

456
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:31,520
Speaker 1: guy who's tough as nails. You aren't gonna push this

457
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:34,720
Speaker 1: guy around, okay. You have got to find a way

458
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 1: to hurt him with body shots. I want to see

459
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,360
Speaker 1: Fury go to the body a lot on this. If

460
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 1: he does, the head comes down, then the uppercut comes

461
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:46,199
Speaker 1: in and that's how he can end the fight. Okay,

462
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,680
Speaker 1: that's how Fury could end the fight with Usik. It's

463
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:51,639
Speaker 1: not gonna be easy. Okay, this is this is a

464
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,439
Speaker 1: coin flip. Okay, I'm taking the plus just because I'm

465
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 1: taking the plus, but you tell me Usik wins. I'm

466
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:58,720
Speaker 1: not going to push back all that hard because I

467
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 1: gotta see the first couple of round. Okay, I gotta

468
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:03,960
Speaker 1: see how Tyxon Fury is in the ring. Is he

469
00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:07,560
Speaker 1: going to be aggressive if he is not done deal

470
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:10,760
Speaker 1: Usik wins. All right, He's gonna come out early. He

471
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:15,160
Speaker 1: has to establish length, establish distance, keep Usik off of him,

472
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 1: and go forward. Fight on the front foot. If he's

473
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 1: going back up against the ropes, if he's gonna have

474
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 1: to take absorbing the punches he took, he almost got

475
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:28,160
Speaker 1: knocked out. Okay, if you remember, Usik really dazed him badly.

476
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 1: He won the fight, but he dazed him badly. And

477
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,440
Speaker 1: arguably the referee could have stopped the fight and just

478
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,400
Speaker 1: said TKO, and he didn't, which was somewhat shucking because

479
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:38,399
Speaker 1: I was watching the fight, going, that's a TKO, that

480
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 1: fight's over. I thought that I thought that the judges

481
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:43,280
Speaker 1: were gonna screw Usic and not give him the fight.

482
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 1: They gave it to him. They almost didn't, but they

483
00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:47,159
Speaker 1: gave it to him. It was right. He won that

484
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 1: fight without a doubt. Fury has to be aggressive. If

485
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 1: he is not, he will lose. So can't push. Hey,

486
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 1: you can't like do this whole like body. You gotta

487
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 1: just punch the guy. This is a boxing match, not

488
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:03,640
Speaker 1: a grappling match, not a wrestling match like he tried

489
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 1: to make it in the first fight. He's not going

490
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:08,920
Speaker 1: to tire out Usik. He's got to hurt him. He

491
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 1: claims he's gonna hurt him. He claims that he is

492
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:17,240
Speaker 1: going to erase everything, everything about this. Fury wanted this fight,

493
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 1: He asked for this fight, He pushed for this fight.

494
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:23,480
Speaker 1: So let's see what happens. We get knockout, and we

495
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 1: get on the cards money line plus one twenty Tyson

496
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:31,640
Speaker 1: Fury over Alexander Usik. I'm not going to be angry though,

497
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:36,960
Speaker 1: if the WBA, WBO and WBC Heavyweight Championship stays with Usik,

498
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 1: because I love the story and I think he's a

499
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:43,399
Speaker 1: true boxer. He is a gritty, gritty guy. But I

500
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:45,639
Speaker 1: think I want to see this three times and I

501
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:47,680
Speaker 1: hope that Fury is at his best. Hope we see

502
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,040
Speaker 1: the best on a Tyson Fury. I hope we see

503
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:52,680
Speaker 1: him be aggressive. If he is not and he does

504
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:54,560
Speaker 1: not this whole I'm gonna dish out a whole lot

505
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 1: of pain If that does not happen and he's not aggressive,

506
00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 1: Usik wins. But I'll take the plus one twenty here

507
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:06,359
Speaker 1: for Fury over Usik money line in the Heavyweight Championship

508
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 1: of the World. All Right, we're loaded, boys and girls,

509
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 1: we are loaded. Okay, the card officially Penn State under

510
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 1: fifty three and a half against SMU. I don't mind

511
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:21,360
Speaker 1: a first quarter SMU because guess who takes the ball

512
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 1: first every single time and scoring early until Penn State

513
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:27,160
Speaker 1: gets an idea of what SMU is going to do.

514
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 1: Don't mind SMU to score first that bet. Don't mind

515
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:33,359
Speaker 1: SMU in the first quarter to have a lead either.

516
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:36,440
Speaker 1: That's not horrible for Penn State. For SMU and Penn State,

517
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:38,120
Speaker 1: don't mind that bet you want to make that, don't

518
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:43,280
Speaker 1: mind that first half. Texas and Clemson. Don't mind that.

519
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 1: But I think Texas could run away with it. We'll see,

520
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 1: but we're going under fifty and a half for Texas

521
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 1: and Clemson. You want first half for Ohio State Tennessee,

522
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 1: you can play that as well. If you want something

523
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 1: in that game, play the first half for Tennessee plus

524
00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 1: the points up against Ohio State. It's probably plus six

525
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 1: plus seven putting on a horrible play for Tennessee in

526
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 1: the first half to that game. Be close in the

527
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 1: first half against against Ohio State on the road. Don't

528
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:12,080
Speaker 1: know if Ohio State loses like everyone thinks, but the

529
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 1: public dog is Tennessee today in the NFL, Steelers plus

530
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 1: thirteen teased up from six and a half are seven

531
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 1: teas from seven up to six from a six point teaser,

532
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 1: and then total from forty four and a half up

533
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 1: to fifty one and a half. And we're going under.

534
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 1: We're going under one fifty for Purdue and Auburn in

535
00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 1: college basketball, and Tyson Fury on the money line up

536
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 1: against Alexander Usik at plus one twenty so four unders.

537
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 1: If we see a ton of a ton of offense

538
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 1: and scoring, I'm screwed in the day will blow up.

539
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 1: But dogs and unders. We're going dogs and unders on

540
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:52,720
Speaker 1: a Saturday here in December. Let's see what happens. Fade

541
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 1: away if you would like. The entire week will hinge

542
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 1: on whether or not we have a winning day here today.

543
00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 1: If we go like one in three or one in four,

544
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 1: rather it'll be a losing week. We go four and one,

545
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 1: it'll be winning week. Let's see how we do here today.

546
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:07,120
Speaker 1: On a Saturday, Mine's Matt Perult, following us all socials

547
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 1: at Sports Talk Matt. Every morning it's The Diligence Podcast

548
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 1: presented by DraftKings