1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:04,440 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 2 00:00:04,480 --> 00:00:08,319 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 3 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:11,720 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:14,760 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 5 00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:20,280 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 6 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:24,319 Speaker 1: We start with the dueling rulings, the fallout of the 7 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: conflicted judges rulings ahead of the weekend on the abortion 8 00:00:27,040 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: medication myth of Chris Stone. The two rulings issue Friday 9 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: night have set up what is widely expected to be 10 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:36,520 Speaker 1: a showdown in the Supreme Court. Attorney General Merrick Garland 11 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:41,239 Speaker 1: has already appealed to Texas ruling. Alexis McGill is, CEO 12 00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:44,519 Speaker 1: of the Planned Parenthood Action Fund. How is it that 13 00:00:44,600 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 1: one person, one judge, with no medical degree, no science degree, 14 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 1: can make a decision about a drug that has been years, 15 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 1: that has been safe and proven effective. Well, of course, 16 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 1: that ruling from the Texas judge was almost immediately contradicted 17 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 1: by a Democratic appointed judge in Washington State affirming the 18 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 1: FDA's approval of mithopristone, blocking the government from restricting access. 19 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:13,679 Speaker 1: There are a lot of questions about what is going 20 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 1: to happen next with competing orders that could in fact 21 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 1: lead their way all the way to the Supreme Court. 22 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 1: That's why we wanted to start the program today with 23 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 1: a legal voice. Here. Scott Lastman joins us. Lastman, law 24 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:27,679 Speaker 1: and policy founder, on the battle over the pill and 25 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:30,480 Speaker 1: what might happen next here Scott, I appreciate your joining us. 26 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 1: Do you see this as many do, as one that 27 00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 1: will quickly arrive in the Supreme Court? Yeah, I think 28 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 1: it will. I'm hoping it will tell me why well. 29 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:48,520 Speaker 1: I think the Texas Court opinion is deeply, deeply flawed. 30 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:52,800 Speaker 1: I'd put it on par with the decision a couple 31 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 1: of months ago by Judge Alien Cannon down in Florida 32 00:01:56,200 --> 00:02:01,240 Speaker 1: that was quickly and thoroughly as by the Eleventh Circuit. 33 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 1: And I'm hoping that the Fifth Circuit plays that role here. 34 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 1: And if not the Fifth Circuit, then hopefully this the 35 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 1: Supreme Court. But in my estimation, the two decisions are 36 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 1: on par and deeply deeply flawed. People saw this, or 37 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 1: at least questioned this first ruling from Texas because it 38 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:27,919 Speaker 1: seemed to come out of the blue. I don't know 39 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:30,720 Speaker 1: if you see it that way, Scott, But what prompted 40 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:35,399 Speaker 1: the judge in Texas to even go here? I don't 41 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:37,079 Speaker 1: think people thought it was out of the blue. I 42 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:41,839 Speaker 1: think folks were expecting the judge to rule the way 43 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:48,400 Speaker 1: he did in Texas, primarily because the judge was hand 44 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 1: picked by these plaintiffs, precisely because there was a feeling 45 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:58,360 Speaker 1: that ideologically he would rule the way he did. The 46 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:02,839 Speaker 1: timing might have been, you know, a little little questionable, 47 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 1: and people might not have been expecting it to be 48 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 1: issued when it was. But I don't think the substance 49 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:11,480 Speaker 1: of it was subject to much debate. Yeah. Well, but 50 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:13,560 Speaker 1: in terms of the substance though, I mean, there was 51 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 1: no new science. There was nothing actually changed to bring 52 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:19,720 Speaker 1: about a ruling like this. This is a drug that 53 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 1: has been in use for years, So maybe I should 54 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:26,560 Speaker 1: rephrase the question that way for a casual viewer here, 55 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:29,080 Speaker 1: does this have anything to do with more than politics? 56 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:32,640 Speaker 1: Is there a scientific reason for it? It doesn't appear 57 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 1: that there is any scientific reason for this. It looks 58 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 1: like it's a completely ideological decision that's very very loosely 59 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 1: based on the law. In fact, and loosely based on 60 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 1: the science. I think one of the biggest problems with 61 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 1: it is the judge seemed to ignore FDA scientific expertise. 62 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:05,000 Speaker 1: Judges reviewing FDA's decisions typically defer to FDA because the 63 00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:09,000 Speaker 1: NBA is the scientific and medical expert judges are not. 64 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 1: But this judge took it upon himself to second guess 65 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:19,679 Speaker 1: FDA scientific and medical judgments, and that, you know, quite frankly, 66 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:24,680 Speaker 1: is shocking. But again, the feeling was that if any 67 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:26,559 Speaker 1: judge was going to do it, it would be this judge, 68 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:30,360 Speaker 1: and that's why the plaintiffs chose to follow the lawsuit 69 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 1: where they did. So. There are questions about next steps. 70 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:36,440 Speaker 1: As I mentioned, the Attorney General has already appealed the 71 00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 1: Texas ruling. We could learn a lot, I suspect in 72 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:42,760 Speaker 1: the next seven days. I don't know if you agree 73 00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 1: with that, but there's there's a question as to whether 74 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:48,040 Speaker 1: anything should be done at all. The congresswoman from New York, 75 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:53,159 Speaker 1: Alexandria Cossio Cortez, suggesting over the weekend that the administration 76 00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:57,599 Speaker 1: simply ignore the ruling and just go on with things here. 77 00:04:57,680 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 1: I don't know if that's even possible, But the Secretary 78 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:03,720 Speaker 1: of Health and Human Services Javir Basso was asked about 79 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:06,279 Speaker 1: it on CNN. Are you taking it off the table 80 00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:11,640 Speaker 1: that you will recommend the FDA ignore a ban? Everything 81 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:13,800 Speaker 1: is on the table. The President said that way back 82 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:16,719 Speaker 1: when the Dobs decision came out, Every option is on 83 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:18,760 Speaker 1: the table. So, Scott Lastman, what would that look like? 84 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:21,480 Speaker 1: How does the administration potentially ignore this or do you 85 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:24,479 Speaker 1: don't You don't see that being in the cards. No, 86 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:26,760 Speaker 1: I think it is in the cards in it. I 87 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:31,960 Speaker 1: actually think it's required by the Washington States case. As 88 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 1: you know that that court enjoined FDA from taking any 89 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:40,520 Speaker 1: actions that would limit the availability of metapristone in the 90 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 1: eighteen states that brought the case, And so I think 91 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:49,039 Speaker 1: because of that, FDA really is not allowed to take 92 00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:54,320 Speaker 1: any actions that would implement the Texas Judges decision. Now, 93 00:05:54,320 --> 00:06:00,040 Speaker 1: the Texas decision is interesting in that itself executing. It 94 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:04,599 Speaker 1: is whether or not FDA does anything doesn't really matter. 95 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:09,000 Speaker 1: The court order stays the approval, and so I think 96 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:12,960 Speaker 1: if and when it goes into effect after the seven days, 97 00:06:14,360 --> 00:06:19,279 Speaker 1: the drug will be considered unapproved. But FDA cannon should 98 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:22,280 Speaker 1: ignore that and as I said, is likely required to 99 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:27,840 Speaker 1: ignore the unapproved status in the sense that you know, 100 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:31,160 Speaker 1: typically when a drug is withdrawn, FDA will remove it 101 00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 1: from its official list of approved drugs. I think FDA 102 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:38,159 Speaker 1: should ignore it and not remove it from that list. 103 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 1: Oftentimes they'll take enforcement action against companies that distribute unapproved drugs, 104 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:48,359 Speaker 1: and again I think FDA cannon should, and because of 105 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:51,560 Speaker 1: the Washington State case, is required to not take any 106 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 1: enforcement action. So in the case of competing rulings like this, 107 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 1: though the administration can, essentially what you're saying, choose to 108 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:03,960 Speaker 1: pay attention to one and not the other. They can 109 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 1: in this case, I'm not sure they have to make 110 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 1: the choice, because the Texas case, as far as I 111 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 1: can see, doesn't require FDA to do anything. Um. It 112 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:18,520 Speaker 1: just basically declares that the drug is unapproved. Now, it 113 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 1: would be different if if the Texas judge had said, 114 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 1: I'm ordering FDA to withdraw approval of the drug or 115 00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 1: suspend approval of the drug. In fact, he said, if 116 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:34,200 Speaker 1: if I couldn't do this unilaterally, that's what I would do. 117 00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 1: I would order FDA to withdraw approval. But as I 118 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:44,160 Speaker 1: read the Texas case, he's really removing the judge himself 119 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 1: is declaring that the drug is not approved anymore and 120 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:51,560 Speaker 1: that doesn't require FDA to do anything. Scott, how quickly 121 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:55,920 Speaker 1: could this go to the Supreme Court? Uh? You know that, 122 00:07:56,080 --> 00:08:02,680 Speaker 1: I don't know. Um, hopefully within a matter of months. Yeah, 123 00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 1: I mean, hopefully we'll get a quick ruling. I think 124 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 1: the first thing we'll want to look at is does 125 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 1: the Fifth Circuit extend the stay of the Texas judges order? 126 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 1: And we should see that within the next week, and 127 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 1: if so, I think that'll be a good sign. Scott, 128 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:26,240 Speaker 1: appreciate your joining us. Scott Lastman at Lastman Law and Policy. 129 00:08:26,320 --> 00:08:29,920 Speaker 1: He's the founder starting us off here on Bloomberg Radio. 130 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:32,679 Speaker 1: I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. As we assembled our panel, 131 00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:35,440 Speaker 1: I'm sure that Rick and Jeanie both have some pretty 132 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:37,760 Speaker 1: well thought out positions on this, having had a few 133 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:41,640 Speaker 1: days to marinate. Rick Davis and Jeanie Chanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributors, 134 00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:45,000 Speaker 1: our signature panel. Genie, this is this is a heck 135 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 1: of a story here, and to think of yet another 136 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 1: massive national controversy coinciding with an election cycle like the 137 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:56,960 Speaker 1: one that we're in. Knowing the fallout from Rovie Wade 138 00:08:56,960 --> 00:08:58,680 Speaker 1: in the Supreme Court. It does make you wonder what 139 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 1: we're headed from part two. I think we are. I 140 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 1: think there's no question at this point that abortion is 141 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:07,319 Speaker 1: going to be on the ballot again across the country 142 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:10,200 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four, which, as the Wall Street Journal 143 00:09:10,280 --> 00:09:14,240 Speaker 1: warned Republicans today and over the weekend, this is to 144 00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:18,760 Speaker 1: your political disadvantage. Get your views on abortion clear, because 145 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 1: what we've seen here is a call for decades to 146 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:24,679 Speaker 1: overturn row and return the decision to the states, And 147 00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 1: now you have swooping in here a federal judge who 148 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:30,680 Speaker 1: is now trying to nationalize it again as a result 149 00:09:30,720 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 1: of this, this filing by these abortion or anti abortion, 150 00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 1: these anti abortion plaintiffs, and that's precisely against what they 151 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 1: were arguing for in the Dab's case. So it's a 152 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:46,560 Speaker 1: real conundrum politically for Republicans, but of course it's a 153 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 1: real challenge for women and women's health. My students were 154 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:53,439 Speaker 1: not alive when this drug was approved, Bill Clinton was president. 155 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:56,000 Speaker 1: This has been their entire lives. It doesn't matter if 156 00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:58,520 Speaker 1: your pro choice or pro life. This raises an enormous 157 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:02,240 Speaker 1: uncertainty about women's health, and that is a problem. Rick. 158 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 1: There's a lot we could talk about here, just to 159 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 1: start with the basics. Do you see this becoming a 160 00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 1: Supreme Court case? Uh? Yeah, I would assume it probably 161 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:12,440 Speaker 1: would be. I mean, I would hope it wouldn't be. 162 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:15,439 Speaker 1: I mean, the Supreme Court's kind of botched up this 163 00:10:15,600 --> 00:10:19,680 Speaker 1: abortion situation in the United States certainly has hurt Republicans 164 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:23,520 Speaker 1: and help Democrats in the last election cycle, and maybe 165 00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 1: keeping them out of this would be the best possible 166 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:30,040 Speaker 1: strategy for those people litigating this issue, you know, and 167 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:33,000 Speaker 1: it pretends a much broader issue. I mean, the Supreme 168 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 1: Court gets involved in this, it could literally dramatically undermine 169 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: the FDA approofal process. So everybody who's got drugs in 170 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:42,560 Speaker 1: the pipeline will look at this and say, gee, maybe 171 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:44,319 Speaker 1: maybe I got to go to the courts to get 172 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 1: my drugs approved, not FDA. So I think this has 173 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 1: great potential for disaster, and frankly, I would hope that 174 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:54,680 Speaker 1: the Supreme Court wouldn't take it on and would would 175 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:58,120 Speaker 1: would just you know, force the appellate courts to deal 176 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:00,320 Speaker 1: with us. Is there a chance it ends that way? Gene, 177 00:11:01,400 --> 00:11:03,880 Speaker 1: I doubt it. I do think we'll see a stay 178 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 1: of the Texas judge's order in the Fifth Circuit. But 179 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:09,320 Speaker 1: when you have competing rulings like this, conflicting rulings, the 180 00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 1: Supreme Court verywell may have to step in. And of 181 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:15,559 Speaker 1: course I think there is a good chance that they 182 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:17,800 Speaker 1: are going to reject what the Texas judge has done. 183 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 1: At least I hope they will, because, as Rick just 184 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 1: talked about, this impacts not just this drug, but every 185 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:26,719 Speaker 1: single drug that the FDA has approved. We are all 186 00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 1: now at the mercy Apparently, if this was to go 187 00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:33,040 Speaker 1: through of a federal judge's whim without any scientific background 188 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:35,720 Speaker 1: and the ability to overturn an FDA approval, that is 189 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 1: a scary position. I can imagine even conservatives on the 190 00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:42,120 Speaker 1: Supreme Court would abide by that. Politically speaking, here, Rick, 191 00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:46,560 Speaker 1: if you're a Republican heading into this election cycle, maybe 192 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:49,040 Speaker 1: we'll take Donald Trump out of this for a second, 193 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 1: considering the House, the Senate, gubernatorial elections, and so forth. 194 00:11:54,480 --> 00:11:56,360 Speaker 1: Is the Wall Street Journal correct It's time to get 195 00:11:56,400 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 1: the narrative straight. Yeah, I think this is really starting 196 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:04,320 Speaker 1: to bullocks up the American public. They don't know really 197 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 1: what position they're in. You know, obviously, the Supreme Court 198 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 1: ruling and Dobbs has unlocked all the state action, and 199 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:14,120 Speaker 1: you're going to have a patchwork quilt of laws that 200 00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:16,520 Speaker 1: nobody's really going to understand how to abide by. We 201 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:21,320 Speaker 1: see reports that doctors are leaving states that are banning 202 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 1: abortion or fear that they're going to have their practice 203 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:27,600 Speaker 1: attack by the courts. I mean, it's it's really a 204 00:12:27,640 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 1: dislocation of healthcare that's happening that has in some cases, 205 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:35,800 Speaker 1: absolutely nothing to do with abortion. And so I think 206 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:38,440 Speaker 1: these lawmakers have got to take a step backwards and 207 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 1: really start to consider the secondary effects of the decisions 208 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:43,960 Speaker 1: that they're out there trying to make, whether it's in 209 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:46,959 Speaker 1: the state legislatures that are active in this area or 210 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:49,760 Speaker 1: in the courts. Let's add Trump back into it now. 211 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:53,400 Speaker 1: He's going to give a full throated voice of support 212 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:55,960 Speaker 1: to this issue going forward. Right, Is that something you 213 00:12:55,960 --> 00:12:58,960 Speaker 1: can assume? Yeah, for sure. I mean, you know, he's 214 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:04,400 Speaker 1: trying to shore up his evangelical, uh you know, anti 215 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 1: abortion credentials. He's got a lot of other people now 216 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:10,839 Speaker 1: running against him who frankly have a better track record, 217 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:15,520 Speaker 1: including his vice president, you know, who is really connected 218 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 1: to this issue and to these communities and and so 219 00:13:19,880 --> 00:13:22,760 Speaker 1: I promise you, if, if, if, if, it won't surprise 220 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:25,280 Speaker 1: anybody that you know. Donald Trump will probably demagogue this 221 00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:28,400 Speaker 1: issue as quickly as he possibly can. But the warnings 222 00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:33,160 Speaker 1: though before the Dobb's decision, Genie, when he was speaking privately, 223 00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:35,960 Speaker 1: and this is based on reports, he called it stupid. 224 00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:38,719 Speaker 1: He said that this is how Republicans are going to 225 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 1: lose suburban female voters. Is he still right about that? 226 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 1: He is a thousand percent right on that, And I 227 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:47,960 Speaker 1: don't say that a lot. You know, this is a 228 00:13:48,040 --> 00:13:51,760 Speaker 1: case of incredible overreach and an inability of Republicans in 229 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:54,280 Speaker 1: the pro life community to take a win. And they're 230 00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:57,840 Speaker 1: allowing the entire party to be labeled as extreme on 231 00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:00,640 Speaker 1: this and so many issues in the last days, let 232 00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:03,080 Speaker 1: alone the last few months. That is great news for 233 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:05,480 Speaker 1: the Democrats and Biden. It is horrible news for the 234 00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:08,720 Speaker 1: GOP and they just can't seem to get their act together. 235 00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 1: Conservative and liberal young people and people across the board 236 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:17,680 Speaker 1: do not want federal judges telling them what their pharmaceutical 237 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,880 Speaker 1: situation and their healthcare should be like. So what will 238 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:23,520 Speaker 1: be the Republican position on this? Rick? Well, I think 239 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 1: Republicans are going to get jammed on this. You know 240 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 1: they're going to be all kinds of sort of lipnus 241 00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:31,840 Speaker 1: tests now being given is to you know how it 242 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:35,320 Speaker 1: used to be how many weeks you know before you 243 00:14:35,800 --> 00:14:39,680 Speaker 1: oppose abortion, that you know that women are pregnant, And 244 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:43,320 Speaker 1: now you're going to have to have a legal abbacus 245 00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:45,240 Speaker 1: next to your bed to figure out how to answer 246 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 1: simple questions. You're listening to Bloomberg You sound on with 247 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:55,840 Speaker 1: Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. It's now a criminal investigation. 248 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 1: The Justice Department looking into the leak of highly classified 249 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 1: documents from the Pentagon revealing how the US spies on 250 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 1: other countries, and including our military's assessment of weaknesses in 251 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:13,600 Speaker 1: Ukraine's military, suggesting that time may well be on Russia's side. 252 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:16,480 Speaker 1: The Pentagon has started an inter agency assessment. Let's get 253 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 1: into this for a moment before we hear from our 254 00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:22,480 Speaker 1: panel on this with Larry Liebert, Bloomberg's National Security editor. Larry, 255 00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 1: thanks for joining us. These documents have been popping up 256 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:27,440 Speaker 1: on social media. Does anyone think we get to the 257 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:31,200 Speaker 1: bottom of the league. Well, they're certainly trying. The Justice 258 00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 1: Department is working on it. The Pentagon is doing an 259 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:37,560 Speaker 1: internal assessment, and they're not playing it down. I just 260 00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 1: moved a story from our reporters updating that the Pentagon 261 00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:47,400 Speaker 1: spokesman said, highly sensitive classified information it poses a very 262 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:51,240 Speaker 1: serious risk to national security, was made public in this 263 00:15:51,560 --> 00:15:56,840 Speaker 1: league of documents. So he said that the US is 264 00:15:56,920 --> 00:16:00,200 Speaker 1: also engaged at high levels, as he put it, with 265 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:03,160 Speaker 1: allies on the lake, because there may not be a 266 00:16:03,160 --> 00:16:06,920 Speaker 1: lot here that the allies don't already know. Except it's 267 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:10,160 Speaker 1: sure embarrassing to have the indication in these files of 268 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:13,600 Speaker 1: the US, as a matter of course, spies on its 269 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:19,240 Speaker 1: allies and friends and Ukraine. So what's the bigger concern here, 270 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:22,600 Speaker 1: kind of revealing how we go about doing business or 271 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:29,000 Speaker 1: compromising potentially Ukraine's effort to fend off an invasion from Russia. 272 00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:33,200 Speaker 1: I think the most significant is the Ukraine material, where 273 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:38,000 Speaker 1: there was a very blunt assessment that Ukraine's ability, which 274 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:42,240 Speaker 1: has been substantial so far, but the Ukraine's ability, particularly 275 00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 1: to hold off Russia's air attacks, may be very limited. 276 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:53,320 Speaker 1: Their ability to do so the weapons they have may 277 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:57,880 Speaker 1: not withstand a new round of Russian air attacks. Now 278 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:01,000 Speaker 1: they've done well so far, partly because the Russians haven't 279 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:05,840 Speaker 1: been eager to put their air force. Air forces drove 280 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 1: everything except drones on high alert and at risk, but 281 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:15,520 Speaker 1: that could change. And for the US to have admitted 282 00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:18,320 Speaker 1: that in public, thanks to whoever leaked these documents and 283 00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:24,840 Speaker 1: published them, is a very embarrassing and troubling assessment on 284 00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:28,280 Speaker 1: the situation in Ukraine. We understand these many of these 285 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:32,479 Speaker 1: at least documents were being prepared for General Mark Millie. 286 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:35,119 Speaker 1: We haven't heard from him on this, have we. I 287 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:38,280 Speaker 1: suspect he's livid about it. No, we haven't, and I'm 288 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:41,720 Speaker 1: not sure that's entirely the problem here, and the one 289 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 1: I think they're going to look into in the future 290 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:46,960 Speaker 1: is this was distributed very whoever it was like initially 291 00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:50,199 Speaker 1: prepared for. It was distributed widely to folks who have 292 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 1: a classified designation. And when you have this kind of material, 293 00:17:55,720 --> 00:18:01,440 Speaker 1: you really have to wonder if this will produce a 294 00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 1: more limited distribution list of internal information, internal assessments that 295 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:11,919 Speaker 1: would take greater care with not only the facts, but 296 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 1: also the political implications if it gets out. Got it, Larry, 297 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:18,400 Speaker 1: Great to talk to you. Come back onund soon. Larry Lieber, 298 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:23,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News National Security editor. This is the that's the 299 00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:25,640 Speaker 1: last line of defense Larry Liebert before the story hits 300 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 1: the terminal that you're reading and we get analysis from 301 00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:31,000 Speaker 1: our panel Jennie Schanzino and Rick Davis. Not a good 302 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:34,440 Speaker 1: look here, Rick, I wonder if it actually compromises very 303 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 1: much here. Larry seems to think the Allies already knew 304 00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:39,359 Speaker 1: about most of this, but I wouldn't want to be 305 00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 1: Ukraine reading these documents. Well, Ukraine has taken a position 306 00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 1: this is just a Russian disinformation campaign, so that's sort 307 00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:48,680 Speaker 1: of their line and they're sticking to it. But I'm 308 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 1: more worried about what Russia learns from this. I mean, 309 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:53,000 Speaker 1: our allies are in for a penny, in for pound, 310 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:56,359 Speaker 1: they'll be on our side, but are we giving up 311 00:18:56,359 --> 00:19:01,199 Speaker 1: any sources and methods of intelligence collection, airing out you know, 312 00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:05,760 Speaker 1: the outcomes of that, of that intelligence collection, and and 313 00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:08,359 Speaker 1: that would worry me because then that that could wind 314 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:12,240 Speaker 1: up we could lose channels of intelligence that otherwise have 315 00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:15,440 Speaker 1: been very fruitful and helpful to us. And so um, 316 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:18,640 Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, I'm really divided. I've talked 317 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 1: to a number of people in a service right now, 318 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:24,560 Speaker 1: you know today, and there's an attitude that's brewing that 319 00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:26,800 Speaker 1: there are people on the inside of the Pentagon who 320 00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:29,199 Speaker 1: don't like the way the war is being managed in 321 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:34,119 Speaker 1: Ukraine and and somebody, uh might have you know, been 322 00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:38,840 Speaker 1: going after their effort to try and upset public support 323 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:42,480 Speaker 1: for this for this uh conflict. So, I mean, if 324 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:46,120 Speaker 1: that's the case, we have issues inside the Defense Department 325 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:48,520 Speaker 1: that that need to be dealt with. Yeah, what's what's 326 00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:51,879 Speaker 1: a bigger concern than here, genie, a mole inside the 327 00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:58,600 Speaker 1: Pentagon or Russian disinformation being presented as authentic Pentagon documents. Yeah, 328 00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 1: I mean it's hard to choose. I would go with 329 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 1: the mole by a hair but you know, they're both 330 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 1: equally troubling. And you know, there are so many questions 331 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:09,800 Speaker 1: that have been raised by this. I mean, as we 332 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:13,040 Speaker 1: look back at the last few times when the United 333 00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:17,879 Speaker 1: States has experienced this, it was usually ideologically motivated people 334 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:21,399 Speaker 1: in the US wanting to reveal what the United States 335 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:25,360 Speaker 1: had done wrong, sort of transgressions of the country in 336 00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:29,360 Speaker 1: this case, to dump these on Discord. My son's used Discord. 337 00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:32,480 Speaker 1: This is a gaming platform, and you know, you're hearing 338 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 1: that maybe this wasn't ideologically motivated at all, but nobody 339 00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:38,639 Speaker 1: can seem to sort of figure out what the motivation 340 00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:41,640 Speaker 1: could be. Rick just alluded to one which is very important, 341 00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:45,160 Speaker 1: could be politically motivated. I'm not sure why it goes 342 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,720 Speaker 1: on a gaming platform on Discord, but it did find 343 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:50,719 Speaker 1: its way out, so it's absolutely possible. But all of 344 00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:53,520 Speaker 1: that is troubling. And then you look at the politics 345 00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:57,120 Speaker 1: of this, you know, talking about the support for the war. 346 00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:00,639 Speaker 1: These documents show that except for you know, pulling the 347 00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:03,360 Speaker 1: trigger and giving them certain weapons that could reach deep 348 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:06,639 Speaker 1: into Russia, the United States is doing just about everything 349 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:09,760 Speaker 1: else in this war. So we are intimately involved. If 350 00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:12,200 Speaker 1: people don't want to use the term proxy war, that's 351 00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 1: where we are at this point, and these documents prove it. 352 00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:17,320 Speaker 1: And that could be a real problem for the Biden 353 00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 1: administration as we move forward. Well it could, and I 354 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:21,760 Speaker 1: don't know that there's a lot of hope for anyone 355 00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:23,480 Speaker 1: getting to the bottom of these leaks here Rick, and 356 00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:25,119 Speaker 1: this world that we are in. It shows up on 357 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:29,119 Speaker 1: a gaming site that I'm guessing none of us have 358 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:31,000 Speaker 1: ever been to, even if they are being used by 359 00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:35,680 Speaker 1: children in my home and in Genie's home. Chasing down 360 00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:39,280 Speaker 1: the source of this could be impossible, now sure. I 361 00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:42,080 Speaker 1: mean it's gonna be very difficult that you know, someone 362 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:44,440 Speaker 1: took pictures of documents that have been folded up, and 363 00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:48,119 Speaker 1: so there's a trail to follow, and you would hope 364 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,120 Speaker 1: that we keep learning our lesson about, you know, control 365 00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:55,840 Speaker 1: of classified information. We've just had a whole year of 366 00:21:55,840 --> 00:22:00,560 Speaker 1: talking about this stuff floating around people's hotels and study. Yeah, 367 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:04,880 Speaker 1: so it keeps the eye, keeps the light on the 368 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:09,040 Speaker 1: weaknesses that we have with control of our most classified information. 369 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:11,959 Speaker 1: I wouldn't worry so much about where it shows up. 370 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,040 Speaker 1: I mean, smart people know how to put this stuff 371 00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:18,080 Speaker 1: out and keep their fingerprints off of it. You start 372 00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:20,480 Speaker 1: looking at these gaming sites a little more often. Here, Genie, 373 00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:23,200 Speaker 1: there might be news. Jennie Chanzano and Rick Davis our 374 00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:25,879 Speaker 1: panel here on a Monday, many thanks to both of you. 375 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:30,359 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 376 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:34,240 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 377 00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:37,600 Speaker 1: tune in alf, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app. 378 00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:40,639 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 379 00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:46,480 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 380 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,800 Speaker 1: I Joe Matthew and Washington along with Kaylee Lynes back 381 00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:53,360 Speaker 1: from the long weekend with Frankly the same story we 382 00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:55,919 Speaker 1: were talking about last week. Of course, the meeting with 383 00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:59,600 Speaker 1: Speaker McCarthy and the President of Taiwan. Let us to 384 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,080 Speaker 1: run the headline on Thursday that it was a muted 385 00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:04,359 Speaker 1: reaction when we saw they were kind of playing around 386 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:06,440 Speaker 1: with the carrier group but didn't really go too close 387 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:08,520 Speaker 1: to the island. Nothing like last time they said with 388 00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:13,200 Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi. Now we've got the equivalent of another blockade. Yeah. Essentially, 389 00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:16,639 Speaker 1: Taiwan's foreign minister saying in an interview with Bloomberg today 390 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 1: that if you look at the intensity of their error 391 00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:21,800 Speaker 1: and naval threats against Taiwan, that it's similar to what 392 00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:25,800 Speaker 1: we saw at the time of Pelosi's visit. So essentially, China, well, 393 00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:28,040 Speaker 1: it may have seemed to be a more measured response 394 00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:31,280 Speaker 1: in the immediate aftermath, seriously ramped things up in the 395 00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:33,199 Speaker 1: days that followed. You wonder where we're going from here 396 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:35,960 Speaker 1: and joining us to talk about this in a series 397 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:37,560 Speaker 1: of other issues. That's what happens, I guess when you 398 00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:40,040 Speaker 1: have a three day weekend. Big Malvani's with US, the 399 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,560 Speaker 1: former acting White House Chief of Staff under President Trump, 400 00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,480 Speaker 1: from OMB director, former Congressman Make It's great to have you. 401 00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:48,800 Speaker 1: We were talking boy who cried wolf last week with 402 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:52,240 Speaker 1: these big responses that kind of lead to nothing. Is 403 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,080 Speaker 1: that what we're seeing here from China? No, I think 404 00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:58,040 Speaker 1: you're seeing, you know, about what we expected. Maybe a 405 00:23:58,080 --> 00:23:59,919 Speaker 1: few days later than we expected. But they were not 406 00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:03,080 Speaker 1: happy with McCarthy meeting with the president, just like they 407 00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:05,560 Speaker 1: weren't happy with Pelosi doing it previously. So I don't 408 00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:08,439 Speaker 1: think it surprises me. Again, I'm sort of out of 409 00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:11,200 Speaker 1: I think I'm absolutely out of the inner circles right now, 410 00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:14,040 Speaker 1: so I can't imagine it would surprise anybody else who 411 00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:17,400 Speaker 1: has better information than I do. Are you surprised, though, 412 00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 1: by how the US policy around Taiwan seems to be 413 00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,960 Speaker 1: shifting in some way? I mean, does the One Policy, 414 00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:28,800 Speaker 1: One China policy still stand as we continually are meeting 415 00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:34,120 Speaker 1: with the Taiwanese leader? Well, formerly it does, And keep 416 00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:35,480 Speaker 1: in mind, I don't think it's any part of the 417 00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:38,680 Speaker 1: One China Policy that would prevent those sorts of meetings. 418 00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:42,480 Speaker 1: Right at the same time, your question is the right one, Kayley, 419 00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:45,760 Speaker 1: Which is the attitude changing, and it seems like it is. 420 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:50,600 Speaker 1: Keep in mind, we don't have a treaty with Taiwan. 421 00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:54,199 Speaker 1: We don't have an agreement to defend them. Part of 422 00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:55,800 Speaker 1: the reason, in fact, a major reason we don't have 423 00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:58,520 Speaker 1: it if we don't even recognize it as a country. 424 00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:00,359 Speaker 1: So I think there's a lot of folks as especially 425 00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,760 Speaker 1: you know, including folks in Washington, the Thickets. It's a 426 00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:07,040 Speaker 1: country we recognize, but we don't. So is that changing. Probably, 427 00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:09,280 Speaker 1: as Joe and I have talked about a lot on 428 00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:13,520 Speaker 1: this program, that attitude towards China is changing across both parties. 429 00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:16,040 Speaker 1: So it does not surprise you, for example, that Nancy wentz. 430 00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:18,520 Speaker 1: It doesn't surprise me that Kevin went this is It's 431 00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:20,400 Speaker 1: what you would expect them to do in this environment. 432 00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:24,040 Speaker 1: A lot of talk about decoupling. Jay Shambaugh, the Treasury 433 00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:26,960 Speaker 1: under Secretary for International Affairs and D talking with Bloomberg 434 00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:30,720 Speaker 1: earlier today, suggesting, no, that's not what we're seeing here, Mick, Listen, 435 00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:33,520 Speaker 1: the US is not seeking to decouple from China. We're 436 00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,399 Speaker 1: not seeking to limit China's growth. You know, those aren't 437 00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:40,600 Speaker 1: our strategic objectives. We occasionally or frequently have issues with 438 00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:44,040 Speaker 1: different economic policies in China, and we will always defend 439 00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:47,040 Speaker 1: US economic interests as well, but we're not in any 440 00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:49,920 Speaker 1: way trying to separate these two economies entirely that that's 441 00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:53,280 Speaker 1: just neither practical nor in our interests. What is practical 442 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:56,680 Speaker 1: or in the interest of Beijing though, what's president she's 443 00:25:56,840 --> 00:26:00,439 Speaker 1: a thought on decoupling. Yeah, I hope that whatever that was, 444 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:01,960 Speaker 1: and I don't I don't know that person. I hope 445 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:06,280 Speaker 1: he's not that naive, because clearly what China is intending 446 00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:08,960 Speaker 1: to do is quickly as possible is to d couple. 447 00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:10,560 Speaker 1: It's one of the reasons you saw them reaching out 448 00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:14,159 Speaker 1: to McCrone over the weekend. They've seen what has happened 449 00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:18,000 Speaker 1: to Russia and the power of the economic control at 450 00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:20,240 Speaker 1: the West, or at least influence of that that West 451 00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:22,640 Speaker 1: has over Russia. They don't like that. They don't want 452 00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:24,520 Speaker 1: to be subject to the same sort of weaknesses that 453 00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:26,280 Speaker 1: Russia does, and they're going to try and the couple 454 00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:29,879 Speaker 1: first from the US and eventually from the West. And 455 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:33,080 Speaker 1: if anybody you know is not acknowledging that, then they've 456 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:34,920 Speaker 1: got their head in the sand. So I'm not saying 457 00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:37,280 Speaker 1: we should be actively running towards the coupling, but we 458 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:40,479 Speaker 1: need to recognize China is certainly interested in doing that, 459 00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:43,560 Speaker 1: and there's certainly some part of our interest that needs 460 00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 1: to keep those sorts of options on the table. I'm 461 00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:49,199 Speaker 1: glad you mentioned mccron mick because the President of France 462 00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:52,119 Speaker 1: made quite a bit of noise over the weekend in 463 00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:54,920 Speaker 1: geopolitical circles with an interview he conducted with a few 464 00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:58,199 Speaker 1: journalists in which he said, quote, the question Europeans need 465 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:00,400 Speaker 1: to answer is is it in our interest to accelerate 466 00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:03,400 Speaker 1: a crisis on Taiwan. No. He goes on to say 467 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,000 Speaker 1: that we Europeans must It would be the worst thing 468 00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:09,080 Speaker 1: to think that we Europeans must become followers on this 469 00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:11,720 Speaker 1: topic and take our que from the US agenda and 470 00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 1: a Chinese overreaction. Is the US alone in this conflict? 471 00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:21,440 Speaker 1: Do you think? Nick? Absolutely not? And well, I understand 472 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,360 Speaker 1: what mccrona is saying. I understand why he went I'm 473 00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:26,280 Speaker 1: not even sure he speaks for all of France, let 474 00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:30,000 Speaker 1: alone for all of Europe. So he's trying very hard. 475 00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:32,399 Speaker 1: I think as his role, he's a he's in a 476 00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:35,280 Speaker 1: declining economy, he's in a declining country. He's trying to 477 00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:37,919 Speaker 1: maintain relevance. And I get that. I'd be doing the 478 00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:40,240 Speaker 1: same thing if I were in his shoes. But to 479 00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:42,080 Speaker 1: come out and say, look, China's on one side and 480 00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:44,280 Speaker 1: America's on the other, and Europe is sort of this 481 00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:47,680 Speaker 1: honest broker in the middle is sort of absurd that 482 00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,640 Speaker 1: I don't think anybody sees it that way. The French 483 00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:52,800 Speaker 1: just don't have that type of that type of pull 484 00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,280 Speaker 1: again even within their own country, let me loaning to Europe. 485 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:57,480 Speaker 1: So look, he's got to do what he's got to do. 486 00:27:57,560 --> 00:27:59,560 Speaker 1: They I think it was over there to announced Airbus 487 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,320 Speaker 1: playing the production of the Tangent facility, which I get 488 00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:05,520 Speaker 1: all of that, but no, when I see Emmanuel Malcron 489 00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:08,119 Speaker 1: on there codling up in China, it doesn't make me 490 00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:10,560 Speaker 1: sort of, you know, clutch at my pearls, go oh no, 491 00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:12,040 Speaker 1: you know, France is going to go over to the 492 00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:15,400 Speaker 1: other side. I just don't see that happen. Chairman McCall 493 00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:18,679 Speaker 1: led a delegation to Taiwan over the weekend the House 494 00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:22,560 Speaker 1: Foreign Affairs Committee, Michael McCall suggesting that this blockade, if 495 00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:24,760 Speaker 1: we can call it, that is also a response to 496 00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:27,120 Speaker 1: the trip. Do you see that being true? Maker, would 497 00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,200 Speaker 1: this have happened either way? Dude to members of Congress 498 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,520 Speaker 1: get this treatment every time they go overseas. Yeah, we do. 499 00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:34,600 Speaker 1: In fact, I remember talking to Mike Pompeo when I 500 00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:36,800 Speaker 1: was an office management budget about whether or not I 501 00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:38,600 Speaker 1: should go, or he should go, or what to deal is. 502 00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:42,080 Speaker 1: It's a very delicate situation. Of course, our strategic ambiguity 503 00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,960 Speaker 1: is right. I saw Mike McCall over the weekend, and 504 00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:47,880 Speaker 1: you know, everybody said, well, he was calling for invasion. No, 505 00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:49,880 Speaker 1: he wasn't. What he was saying is that he wasn't 506 00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:52,760 Speaker 1: he wouldn't rule out military action, which is exactly the 507 00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:55,360 Speaker 1: position that we've taken as a government now for quite 508 00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:57,160 Speaker 1: some time. Again, we're not saying we're in, we're not 509 00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:00,360 Speaker 1: saying we're out. It's one of those all options to 510 00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:02,400 Speaker 1: the table. And I think that sort of ambiguity has 511 00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:04,000 Speaker 1: served as well. So now I think I think Mike 512 00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:06,200 Speaker 1: did a nice job. Doesn't surprise me that he's over 513 00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:09,880 Speaker 1: there again. This is part of the chilling of the 514 00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:13,479 Speaker 1: relationship between China and the US, and I would expect 515 00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:16,480 Speaker 1: more visits from other high ranking folks on both sides 516 00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:19,720 Speaker 1: of Taiwan and US in the near future. All right, Well, Mick, 517 00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:22,080 Speaker 1: while we continue to keep one eye on the geopolitics, 518 00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:24,840 Speaker 1: we also have our eye on domestic issues here at home. 519 00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:27,600 Speaker 1: Because over the weekend, of course, we had these competing 520 00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:32,160 Speaker 1: rulings regarding access to abortion pills here in the US. 521 00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:36,160 Speaker 1: The Biden dj has just filed an appeal of that 522 00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,320 Speaker 1: Texas ruling in particular, which of course competes with the 523 00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:42,280 Speaker 1: other out of Washington. All of this just adding fuel 524 00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:46,240 Speaker 1: to the conversation around this very hot button social issue 525 00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:49,040 Speaker 1: that seems and tell me if you disagree with this 526 00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:52,040 Speaker 1: to be a losing one for Republican candidates. We saw 527 00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:54,600 Speaker 1: that with the midterms. We saw it in Wisconsin just 528 00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:57,240 Speaker 1: last week. How much is the abortion issue going to 529 00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:01,520 Speaker 1: plague the goop mic? Yeah, anytime you look at any 530 00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:04,680 Speaker 1: election of sort of a single issue sort of oversimplify. 531 00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:07,120 Speaker 1: So it only it's fair to say that, you know, 532 00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:10,640 Speaker 1: abortion costs them seats. But absolutely I think you're correct 533 00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:14,720 Speaker 1: if you're suggesting this was a bigger issue than Republicans 534 00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:18,239 Speaker 1: had expected, and a bigger issue working against them than 535 00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:21,760 Speaker 1: Republicans had expected. I happen to think the decision, but 536 00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:25,440 Speaker 1: the Supreme Court was judicially the exact correct one. But 537 00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:27,920 Speaker 1: I think my party sort of got caught flat footed 538 00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:32,360 Speaker 1: realizing that the you know, the movement to ban abortion 539 00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,720 Speaker 1: absolutely nationwide is something that is probably not supported by 540 00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:38,240 Speaker 1: majority of the population. So to the extent it does 541 00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:41,680 Speaker 1: become an issue, it will continue to sort of plague 542 00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:43,440 Speaker 1: Republicans as they have to figure out a way to 543 00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:47,200 Speaker 1: explain why they are pro life. I am, but I'm 544 00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:49,400 Speaker 1: also not running for office, so I'm not exactly the 545 00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:51,800 Speaker 1: target target audience here. So yeah, it's going to be 546 00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:53,440 Speaker 1: a challenge for them. I think it's one of the 547 00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:56,720 Speaker 1: reasons you're seeing that Republicans focused instead on things like 548 00:30:56,840 --> 00:31:00,640 Speaker 1: LGBTQ issues, education, so forth, because those are the issues 549 00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:04,280 Speaker 1: that they have and can turn to their advantage. Based 550 00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:06,480 Speaker 1: on what we saw though in Wisconsin, you dial back 551 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:10,640 Speaker 1: a little bit to Kansas, add Michigan. Now, this it's 552 00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:12,800 Speaker 1: an issue that Republicans will not likely be able to 553 00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:15,160 Speaker 1: hide from in twenty four Mick, how does the party 554 00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:18,480 Speaker 1: position itself for this? Yeah, they have to go and 555 00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:21,000 Speaker 1: have the debate. Listen, we asked for fifty years for 556 00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:23,719 Speaker 1: the debate, for fifty years, Republicans said, look, we think 557 00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:25,920 Speaker 1: it should be left to the states. Okay, now it's 558 00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:27,520 Speaker 1: left to the states, and we have to be able 559 00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:30,560 Speaker 1: to make that case as to why we think life 560 00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:33,760 Speaker 1: begin to a conception, why we think there shouldn't be 561 00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:37,160 Speaker 1: or should be exceptions depending on how approach it. It's 562 00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,080 Speaker 1: almost as if we thought that the battle would be 563 00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:41,560 Speaker 1: over if we wanted the Supreme Court, and the truth 564 00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,320 Speaker 1: of matter is it just started. So Yeah, I happen 565 00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:47,600 Speaker 1: to think I welcome the debate, and even the states 566 00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:51,120 Speaker 1: that vote against how I would vote, I applaud because 567 00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:53,840 Speaker 1: I think it's the national debate that Roe versus Weight 568 00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:56,840 Speaker 1: prevented us from having. So roundabout sort of way. I 569 00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:58,880 Speaker 1: think it's good for the country. It's just right now, 570 00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,920 Speaker 1: my party's not really read to message it very well. Well, 571 00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:05,160 Speaker 1: let's talk about one candidate for your party in particular, 572 00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:07,600 Speaker 1: as he seeks the twenty twenty four nomination. Where do 573 00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:11,160 Speaker 1: you think your former boss, former President Trump, actually stands 574 00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:15,360 Speaker 1: on this topic, because it hasn't been much from him 575 00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:18,640 Speaker 1: on this, it's been kind of silent. Yeah, you know, 576 00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:21,040 Speaker 1: it's a really good question, probably a longer one than 577 00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:23,000 Speaker 1: we want to get into here. The short answer is 578 00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:25,320 Speaker 1: this is that I think that the President became more 579 00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:28,080 Speaker 1: pro life the more the longer he was in office 580 00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:31,520 Speaker 1: and the longer he realized what the real radical left 581 00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:35,200 Speaker 1: attitude is towards abortion. I remember the Governor north from 582 00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,600 Speaker 1: comments about you know, delivering a baby, keeping it warm, 583 00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:39,800 Speaker 1: and killing it, and that had a dramatic effect on 584 00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:42,480 Speaker 1: President Trump. He did not realize that was how aggressive 585 00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,280 Speaker 1: the pro abortion side of the argue it was, and 586 00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:47,960 Speaker 1: I think he sort of became more pro life while 587 00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:51,200 Speaker 1: he was office. I also think he's probably more towards 588 00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:56,280 Speaker 1: you know, banning it, not allowing abortion to indiscriminately, but 589 00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:59,840 Speaker 1: allowing certain exceptions. I think that's probably where he is individually. 590 00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:03,680 Speaker 1: But again, I feel like it was the Wall Street 591 00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:06,160 Speaker 1: Journal when in advance of the Dobb's ruling, when he 592 00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:09,400 Speaker 1: called it stupid, he said that this is how Republicans 593 00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:13,960 Speaker 1: will lose suburban women. Does he not believe that too? Well? 594 00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:15,880 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, my former boss has got a 595 00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:18,200 Speaker 1: lot of different ways to lose suburban women. One of 596 00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:20,160 Speaker 1: them is, you know, having been it with white supremacists 597 00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:22,560 Speaker 1: and so forth, so there's no shortage of that. But 598 00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,280 Speaker 1: I think I think he sort of hit the hit 599 00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:27,959 Speaker 1: the nail on the on the head, which is, you know, 600 00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:30,880 Speaker 1: we won the battle and lost the war, right or 601 00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:32,960 Speaker 1: at least losing the war. I don't think he's wrong 602 00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:35,280 Speaker 1: about that. It would be curious to see, you know, 603 00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:37,880 Speaker 1: as he does. He ran as as very pro life. 604 00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:40,360 Speaker 1: He certainly governed as very pro life. There's no question, 605 00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:43,040 Speaker 1: no more pro life president probably in history when it 606 00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:45,600 Speaker 1: comes to policy. Be curious to see if he stays 607 00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:47,680 Speaker 1: that way as he moves into twenty twenty four. It's 608 00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:51,000 Speaker 1: a delicate balancing act for him because the pro life 609 00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:54,920 Speaker 1: you know, Christian we of the party um was firmly 610 00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:56,560 Speaker 1: for Donald Trump, and he wants to count on them 611 00:33:56,560 --> 00:34:00,080 Speaker 1: again next time around. And as we look at the 612 00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:01,760 Speaker 1: the former president in the way in which he has 613 00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:04,920 Speaker 1: dominated the news cycle over the last several weeks, even 614 00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:07,680 Speaker 1: as other candidates have thrown their hat into the ring 615 00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:10,640 Speaker 1: for the Republican nomination in twenty twenty four, to not 616 00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:14,680 Speaker 1: much fanfare or even really acknowledgment that that was happening. 617 00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:17,880 Speaker 1: How long do you think he can maintain this hold 618 00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:21,040 Speaker 1: on all the oxygen around the Republican Party And how 619 00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:23,960 Speaker 1: much is that to the detriment of others in it. Well, 620 00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:26,840 Speaker 1: I mean, certainly he's a master at controlling the oxygen 621 00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:29,400 Speaker 1: in the room. He's a master showman, there's no question 622 00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:32,640 Speaker 1: and that he is just absolute cat nip for most 623 00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:34,400 Speaker 1: of the media. And if you've got to you know, 624 00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:37,400 Speaker 1: if you're a Republican challenger, not only are you struggling 625 00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:39,840 Speaker 1: to try and get attention, you're startling to try and 626 00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:42,840 Speaker 1: get some distance, some differentiation, because your first you know, 627 00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:45,640 Speaker 1: the first three questions that someone is going to ask 628 00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:48,040 Speaker 1: you is not going to be about your policy towards Taiwan. 629 00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:49,560 Speaker 1: It's going to be what do you think about Trump? 630 00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:52,680 Speaker 1: So even if they're talking to, you know, Mike Pants, 631 00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:54,880 Speaker 1: it's the first three questions to be about the other side, 632 00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:58,080 Speaker 1: and you might have to come to his defense, including 633 00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:01,040 Speaker 1: on things like the Manhattan DA indictment tweek, So it's 634 00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:03,280 Speaker 1: really hard to get that distance. It's gonna be a challenge, 635 00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:05,960 Speaker 1: there's no question. I think there's probably only two or 636 00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:09,000 Speaker 1: three that are really getting a chance to challenge Trump. 637 00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:11,680 Speaker 1: I think Ron Santas certainly does. I think Tim Scott, 638 00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:14,319 Speaker 1: a name you haven't heard much recently, but it looks 639 00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:17,200 Speaker 1: like he's moving towards running those are there. The Santis 640 00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:20,000 Speaker 1: is so similar to Trump in some ways that he's 641 00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:22,040 Speaker 1: got a chance, and Tim Scott is so much different 642 00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:24,360 Speaker 1: than Trump in other ways. I think he's got to 643 00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:26,200 Speaker 1: do He's got an excellent chance as well. But we'll 644 00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:28,480 Speaker 1: see as that plays out. Open up the travel plans 645 00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:31,480 Speaker 1: would certainly make you think that what happens though, Mike, 646 00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:35,439 Speaker 1: if if Ronda Santa's signs as promised a six week 647 00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:39,360 Speaker 1: abortion ban in Florida, does that help him in this contest? 648 00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:43,160 Speaker 1: You know, it's a really good question. I don't know. 649 00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:46,560 Speaker 1: I think if his attitude is if it depends on 650 00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:48,799 Speaker 1: how messages right. If he says, look, we have the 651 00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:53,360 Speaker 1: most republican legislature in the country, We're the most republican state. 652 00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:56,000 Speaker 1: You all know, we're good conservatives, this is where the 653 00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:59,279 Speaker 1: population was, this is where the public is. I think 654 00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:02,239 Speaker 1: you could sell that to folks like me. I mean again, 655 00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:05,760 Speaker 1: I'm devoutly Catholic. I believe life be gives a conception. 656 00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:08,120 Speaker 1: But if she came to me and said, look, this 657 00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:10,319 Speaker 1: is the government stepping in and saying what we're doing, 658 00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:14,000 Speaker 1: I could that would not cross you off of my list. 659 00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:16,200 Speaker 1: So if your question is this, if the signs at 660 00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:19,200 Speaker 1: six week Bill in Florida. Is he done? Absolutely not. 661 00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:21,040 Speaker 1: I just think it depends on how he handles it 662 00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:25,080 Speaker 1: out receipt. Great to talk with you, McK Thanks for 663 00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:26,800 Speaker 1: coming in. We'll talk to you know week. Mc mulvaney 664 00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:29,359 Speaker 1: joins us each week at this time on Bloomberg Radio. 665 00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:32,360 Speaker 1: Former acting White House Chief of Staff under President Trump, 666 00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:37,520 Speaker 1: currently coach here at ACTAM Global Consultants. And you know, 667 00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:39,880 Speaker 1: he says he's not on the inside circle. We know otherwise. 668 00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:42,120 Speaker 1: Kaylee's actually a pretty great way to get a sense 669 00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:44,279 Speaker 1: of where the pulse is in the Republican electorate when 670 00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:47,160 Speaker 1: we try to figure out stories like these. You're listening 671 00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:50,920 Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us live weekdays 672 00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:54,279 Speaker 1: at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the Irhart Radio app, 673 00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:57,280 Speaker 1: and the Bloomberg Business App. We're listening on demand wherever 674 00:36:57,320 --> 00:37:01,960 Speaker 1: you get your podcast. So Nancy Pelosi's visit was the 675 00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:04,839 Speaker 1: dress rehearsal, and I guess this is the sequel. I'm 676 00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:07,720 Speaker 1: Joe Matthew with Kaylee Lines here on the Fastest show 677 00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:09,400 Speaker 1: in Politics, and Kaylee, we've had an eye as we 678 00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:11,880 Speaker 1: just discussed with Mick mulvaney and what's happening in the 679 00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:15,840 Speaker 1: waters off Taiwan. It's almost a week old now. The 680 00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:19,080 Speaker 1: day that Speaker McCarthy met with Presidents sig and there 681 00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:21,799 Speaker 1: was this sort of delayed reaction. People thought, well, maybe 682 00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:26,640 Speaker 1: they're not as upset, maybe we're normalizing Congressional codeels to Taiwan, 683 00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:29,680 Speaker 1: but no such thing. Major drills extending into a second 684 00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:32,320 Speaker 1: day now looks just like when Nancy Pelosi went yeah 685 00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:35,080 Speaker 1: in the People's Liberation Army in China, saying that it 686 00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:38,680 Speaker 1: stands ready to fight at any time and crush separatism 687 00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:43,200 Speaker 1: activities and foreign interference. We've always gotten the strong language 688 00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:45,520 Speaker 1: from China on this issue. Joe. We thought maybe just 689 00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:47,600 Speaker 1: talk as all it was last week, but it seems 690 00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:49,440 Speaker 1: like they are backing it up with this posturing. It 691 00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:52,479 Speaker 1: sure does. That's why we wanted to talk to Amy 692 00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:56,640 Speaker 1: Seliko Albright Stonebridge Group Principle on this matter. Amy, it's 693 00:37:56,800 --> 00:37:59,160 Speaker 1: great to have you with us here. When you take 694 00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:01,600 Speaker 1: a look at what's going on and the waters around Taiwan, 695 00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:04,520 Speaker 1: is this going to be like the last time or 696 00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:08,480 Speaker 1: does it become more dangerous each time? Well, thanks for 697 00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:10,759 Speaker 1: having me. Great to be with you both. I do 698 00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:15,719 Speaker 1: think what we're seeing is China trying to calibrate its reaction, 699 00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:19,279 Speaker 1: just like the US is trying to calibrate its engagements 700 00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:24,480 Speaker 1: with Taiwan so that we're not really escalating beyond control. 701 00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:28,280 Speaker 1: So while I agree with you this is very nerve 702 00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:31,600 Speaker 1: racking to watch what's happening these war games around Taiwan, 703 00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:34,640 Speaker 1: I think if we compared it to last summer after 704 00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:39,200 Speaker 1: Speaker Pelosi visited, it's not as intensive. I don't want 705 00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:42,719 Speaker 1: to diminish how significant. It is not as intensive as 706 00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:47,520 Speaker 1: last summer's exercises. I think, Okay, Amy, you just said 707 00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:50,719 Speaker 1: that the US is really trying to calibrate its activity 708 00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:54,040 Speaker 1: in position around Taiwan, how it meets with presidents I, 709 00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:56,720 Speaker 1: and yet we continue to see these meetings taking place, 710 00:38:56,920 --> 00:39:00,600 Speaker 1: two Speakers of the House, different congressional delegation making the 711 00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:05,120 Speaker 1: trip to Taiwan. Doesn't the US knowingly add fuel to 712 00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:08,399 Speaker 1: the fire with each one of these meetings, And then 713 00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:13,880 Speaker 1: what's the end goal? Well, I think, gayly, the challenge 714 00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:16,799 Speaker 1: for the administration is they don't control Congress, nor do 715 00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:20,960 Speaker 1: they pretend to. And when the Chinese are so angry 716 00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:27,080 Speaker 1: about Codel's going to Taiwan or or during sighing, when's 717 00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:29,880 Speaker 1: transit to the United States, of course, meeting with Speaker 718 00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:33,880 Speaker 1: McCarthy in a number of other members of Congress. You know, 719 00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:40,439 Speaker 1: the administration says Congress has every right to to meet 720 00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:44,600 Speaker 1: with foreign leaders and doesn't try to pretend that they're 721 00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:51,000 Speaker 1: controlling Congress over Taiwan policy. However, I do think the 722 00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:54,040 Speaker 1: administration is quite careful not to add fuel to the 723 00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:58,879 Speaker 1: fire in these moments. It's interesting that you suggest Amy 724 00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:01,040 Speaker 1: that this is not quite as as bad as last time, 725 00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:03,600 Speaker 1: or when Nancy Pelosi went, I just want to quantify 726 00:40:04,239 --> 00:40:07,480 Speaker 1: the difference here because Taiwan's Defense ministry says it detected 727 00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:11,799 Speaker 1: seventy aircraft and eleven warships near Taiwan, thirty five of 728 00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:14,520 Speaker 1: the warplanes crossing the Median line, and they did include 729 00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:18,200 Speaker 1: the J fifteens that are carrier based fighter jets. Are 730 00:40:18,239 --> 00:40:22,239 Speaker 1: you speaking in terms of actual hardware or just sort 731 00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:25,600 Speaker 1: of the the emotion that surrounded the event when Nancy 732 00:40:25,640 --> 00:40:28,800 Speaker 1: Pelosi went, yeah, I want to be very careful and 733 00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:33,320 Speaker 1: not suggesting that this is an highly provocative by Beijing. However, 734 00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:36,160 Speaker 1: when you think about last summer, when there are missiles 735 00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:42,320 Speaker 1: flying over Taiwan, some of which landed in Japanese waters. 736 00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:47,239 Speaker 1: This has not been as aggressive. Now the symbolism is 737 00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:52,799 Speaker 1: equally disturbing. Right, They are preparing an aerial blockade, you know, 738 00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:59,000 Speaker 1: doing drills that simulate an invasion of the island using 739 00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:03,800 Speaker 1: an aircraft carrier, one of China's two domestically made aircraft 740 00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:08,400 Speaker 1: carriers in the region. So highly provocative. I just think 741 00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:11,360 Speaker 1: when we look at compared with last summer, it wasn't 742 00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:16,400 Speaker 1: a step even further into new provocations. It was just 743 00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:21,720 Speaker 1: very provocative, very worrying. And what's most worrying about it, frankly, 744 00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:25,200 Speaker 1: is the potential for an accident and then what happens 745 00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:27,279 Speaker 1: in that case, you know, and into any kind of 746 00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:30,160 Speaker 1: act that could truly spire a lot of control well, 747 00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:33,160 Speaker 1: and in the event of an accident or some other 748 00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:35,960 Speaker 1: cause that would bring the US or other countries into 749 00:41:36,000 --> 00:41:38,440 Speaker 1: it as well, there's a question of what that would 750 00:41:38,440 --> 00:41:40,920 Speaker 1: look like. Considering it was not just the meeting between 751 00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:43,520 Speaker 1: McCarthy and PSI last week that was happening. There was 752 00:41:43,560 --> 00:41:48,160 Speaker 1: also a meeting in Beijing with European leaders where afterward 753 00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:51,160 Speaker 1: Emmanuel Macrone really cast a lot of doubt on the 754 00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:55,320 Speaker 1: alignment of Europe and the US on the Taiwan issue. 755 00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:59,520 Speaker 1: So if and when this tension escalates even further, is 756 00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:01,759 Speaker 1: the US alone or does it have the buy in 757 00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:06,200 Speaker 1: of the rest of the West? Great great question. I 758 00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:08,600 Speaker 1: think that the mccron visit, and of course he was 759 00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:12,640 Speaker 1: accompanied by the President of the European Commissions of underlyine. 760 00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:15,920 Speaker 1: But mccron got a kind of top billing and a 761 00:42:16,040 --> 00:42:19,799 Speaker 1: much warmer welcome because Vonderline had been so critical of 762 00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:23,160 Speaker 1: Beijing in a speech she made last week prior to 763 00:42:23,239 --> 00:42:29,080 Speaker 1: traveling to China. You know, mccron's comments on europe needing 764 00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:35,040 Speaker 1: to maintain strategic autonomy have been widely criticized by many 765 00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:38,359 Speaker 1: in Europe and the United States in this moment where 766 00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:42,480 Speaker 1: we are seeing China behaving so provocatively. But to get 767 00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:46,400 Speaker 1: to your point, you know, those military exercises didn't start 768 00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:51,319 Speaker 1: until after mccron had left China, and so just just 769 00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:57,120 Speaker 1: ended hours ago, this round of military exercises. But the 770 00:42:57,239 --> 00:43:00,480 Speaker 1: Japanese are quite engaged along with the United States and 771 00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:05,880 Speaker 1: others in watching how these military exercises are taking place. 772 00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:09,480 Speaker 1: And I do think there's very very it's very very 773 00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:13,080 Speaker 1: difficult for me to see a bright spot or any 774 00:43:13,080 --> 00:43:17,360 Speaker 1: point of optimism here. However, the Japanese and the Chinese 775 00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:24,000 Speaker 1: have been talking about reinstating hotlines mil to mill communication 776 00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:26,160 Speaker 1: in a way that the US and China have not 777 00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:31,279 Speaker 1: been effective, so at least it's constructive. The Japanese and 778 00:43:31,360 --> 00:43:36,440 Speaker 1: the Chinese are talking about military to military contact because, 779 00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:39,960 Speaker 1: of course Japan is very involved in the region as well. 780 00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:43,319 Speaker 1: Amy Congress from Michael McCall, who's in Taipei with his 781 00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:46,399 Speaker 1: own delegation over the weekend, House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair, 782 00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:49,759 Speaker 1: talked about the sale of weapons to Taiwan. This is 783 00:43:50,160 --> 00:43:52,520 Speaker 1: a big part of their conversation. Of course. When he 784 00:43:52,560 --> 00:43:55,640 Speaker 1: met with President sign said that Congress is doing everything 785 00:43:55,640 --> 00:43:58,000 Speaker 1: I can to speed up arm sales to Taiwan. Quote, 786 00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:01,080 Speaker 1: we will provide training for your military, not for war, 787 00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:07,400 Speaker 1: but for peace. Beijing, I'm guessing, doesn't see it that way. No, 788 00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:11,480 Speaker 1: Beijing sees this as meddling, right, of course, they always have. 789 00:44:11,920 --> 00:44:17,279 Speaker 1: But the US government at least has been consistent for 790 00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:21,399 Speaker 1: decades in saying that while we have a diplomatic relationship 791 00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:25,640 Speaker 1: with Beijing and not with Taiwan, we have legislation that 792 00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:30,440 Speaker 1: continues to allow the US to sell Taiwan arms in 793 00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:34,479 Speaker 1: order for Taiwan to provide for its own defense. Now, 794 00:44:34,520 --> 00:44:37,680 Speaker 1: whether the United States would come to the aid of 795 00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:41,160 Speaker 1: Taiwan in a military conflict with China, I think really 796 00:44:41,200 --> 00:44:45,719 Speaker 1: depends on how that conflict is started. But I think 797 00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:51,520 Speaker 1: that Congressman McCall's statements are wholly consistent with a bipartisan 798 00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:56,040 Speaker 1: support within Congress to make sure that Taiwan has access 799 00:44:56,080 --> 00:44:59,319 Speaker 1: to the arms it needs to become a porcupine, right, 800 00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:03,880 Speaker 1: something that can defend itself against an increasingly assertive and 801 00:45:03,920 --> 00:45:08,760 Speaker 1: aggressive Chinese military. Well, and of course, the tensions between 802 00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:12,120 Speaker 1: the US and China don't just emanate from the Taiwan issue, 803 00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:14,160 Speaker 1: although that is a large one. There are also wider 804 00:45:14,239 --> 00:45:18,719 Speaker 1: questions around national and data security and the auditing of 805 00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:21,000 Speaker 1: Chinese companies that are listed here in the US. I mean, 806 00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:23,000 Speaker 1: the list goes on and on of things we've had 807 00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:25,040 Speaker 1: to cover here at Bloomberg over the last several years. 808 00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:28,640 Speaker 1: Just really feels like things have escalated in terms of 809 00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:33,319 Speaker 1: the tension in this relationship. Is are we witnessing the 810 00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:37,759 Speaker 1: decoupling of these two largest economies. Officials within the US 811 00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:40,279 Speaker 1: government that Bloomberg has spoken to you suggested, No, that's 812 00:45:40,280 --> 00:45:42,680 Speaker 1: not the policy, and yet is that really what is happening? 813 00:45:44,120 --> 00:45:48,839 Speaker 1: I think that I don't like using the term decoupling either. 814 00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:51,319 Speaker 1: I mean, we did see record trade between the US 815 00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:55,759 Speaker 1: and China and twenty twenty two. However, we absolutely are 816 00:45:55,800 --> 00:46:00,560 Speaker 1: putting more and more barriers on different what we term 817 00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:05,080 Speaker 1: sensitive areas of trade, anything that's national security related, and 818 00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:09,120 Speaker 1: restricting those kinds of areas of trade and investment is 819 00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:13,640 Speaker 1: becoming more and more extensive, not just on the US side. 820 00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:17,720 Speaker 1: Beijing's doing the same thing, and it's national security based 821 00:46:18,440 --> 00:46:23,560 Speaker 1: investigation into Micron in China that it launched a week 822 00:46:23,560 --> 00:46:26,759 Speaker 1: ago Friday is another example of that of China to 823 00:46:27,080 --> 00:46:32,919 Speaker 1: relying on national security reasons to investigate and potentially constrain 824 00:46:34,120 --> 00:46:37,560 Speaker 1: US investment in China. They think it's bad for China. 825 00:46:37,680 --> 00:46:39,920 Speaker 1: We're doing the same thing. And so if I'm going 826 00:46:39,920 --> 00:46:42,200 Speaker 1: to use that that D word I don't like so much, 827 00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:46,160 Speaker 1: I would say selective decoupling absolutely is happening between the 828 00:46:46,200 --> 00:46:49,959 Speaker 1: two economies, right Amy, thanks for talking with the semi 829 00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:54,880 Speaker 1: selco principle at albright Stone Bridge Group. Selective decoupling not 830 00:46:55,000 --> 00:46:59,000 Speaker 1: to be confused with conscious I have to do. Where's 831 00:46:59,040 --> 00:47:02,960 Speaker 1: Gwyneth Paltrow when you exactly you're listening to the Bloomberg 832 00:47:03,040 --> 00:47:06,759 Speaker 1: Sound on podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at one 833 00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:10,760 Speaker 1: Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tuning app, Bloomberg dot Com, 834 00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:13,680 Speaker 1: and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live 835 00:47:13,840 --> 00:47:17,000 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just 836 00:47:17,120 --> 00:47:23,600 Speaker 1: Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. Beautiful day here in Washington. 837 00:47:23,719 --> 00:47:26,920 Speaker 1: We're in the mid sixties. A couple of cherry blossoms 838 00:47:26,960 --> 00:47:31,399 Speaker 1: left on the trees, and the Easter egg rowd as 839 00:47:31,440 --> 00:47:33,840 Speaker 1: we step onto the south lawn of the White House 840 00:47:33,880 --> 00:47:39,720 Speaker 1: together here a beautiful day for it. As President Biden 841 00:47:39,840 --> 00:47:42,359 Speaker 1: mingles the kids roll the Easter eggs. We do this 842 00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:44,759 Speaker 1: whole thing every year here, and it's just a reminder 843 00:47:45,719 --> 00:47:48,640 Speaker 1: that winter is behind us and we're on to better days. 844 00:47:48,680 --> 00:47:51,799 Speaker 1: The President did speak today at the Easter egg roll 845 00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:54,480 Speaker 1: from the balcony. We'll play that for you and give 846 00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:57,720 Speaker 1: you a little bit of a walk through Easter egg 847 00:47:57,840 --> 00:48:01,600 Speaker 1: rolls past with some thing maybe not so controversial to 848 00:48:01,719 --> 00:48:06,040 Speaker 1: talk about him in this hour on Bloomberg Sound On, 849 00:48:06,480 --> 00:48:09,000 Speaker 1: Ladies and gentlemen, what I see looking across the south 850 00:48:09,080 --> 00:48:15,880 Speaker 1: lawn is a country made up of possibilities. Anything's possible. America, 851 00:48:16,200 --> 00:48:19,680 Speaker 1: remember who we are, and we do it together. So 852 00:48:19,840 --> 00:48:22,719 Speaker 1: have a wonderful, wonderful time here at the People's House. 853 00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:27,040 Speaker 1: God bless you all, and may God protect our troops. 854 00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:30,239 Speaker 1: Happy Easter. Who's read the word of the wild Things are? 855 00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:36,400 Speaker 1: It's a classic. It's a classic. All right, everybody ready? 856 00:48:36,840 --> 00:48:41,239 Speaker 1: Do you know that since eighteen seventy eight presidents have 857 00:48:41,320 --> 00:48:45,520 Speaker 1: hosted this event, and it is our honor to continue 858 00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:50,359 Speaker 1: this tradition. His mother called him wild thing, and Max said, 859 00:48:50,400 --> 00:48:54,160 Speaker 1: I'll eat you up, so he was sent to bed 860 00:48:54,880 --> 00:48:57,600 Speaker 1: without eating any supper. The first president who did so 861 00:48:57,920 --> 00:49:01,960 Speaker 1: was a guy named Rutherford B. Hayes. He decided to 862 00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:04,000 Speaker 1: have the Easter egg Roll here at the White House 863 00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:07,360 Speaker 1: because the members of the United States Congress said, you 864 00:49:07,400 --> 00:49:10,120 Speaker 1: couldn't be They wouldn't want to host the Easter egg 865 00:49:10,200 --> 00:49:13,640 Speaker 1: Roll anymore on the Congressional grounds. That very night in 866 00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:16,279 Speaker 1: Max's room before us grooming. Just to show you we 867 00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:18,879 Speaker 1: don't hold a grudge, We've invited members of the US 868 00:49:18,960 --> 00:49:21,440 Speaker 1: Congress here and you're welcome, and thank you all for coming. 869 00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:24,600 Speaker 1: The wild things roar, they're terrible roars. Let's hear your roars. 870 00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:31,680 Speaker 1: I mean that's they're terrible. Teefassilty. This is one hundred 871 00:49:31,719 --> 00:49:34,279 Speaker 1: and forty one years that we've been doing this. I 872 00:49:34,320 --> 00:49:38,040 Speaker 1: don't remember the first one, but we're last three years. 873 00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:42,320 Speaker 1: We've had an awfully good time you guys. You guys 874 00:49:42,320 --> 00:49:47,440 Speaker 1: work great wild things. Congratulations, But just remember when their 875 00:49:47,480 --> 00:49:50,280 Speaker 1: mom tells them to this up and door. This is Bloomberg.