Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.
Speaker 1: I'm Thomas Yola and joining me today to talk about
Speaker 1: the NFL schedule release. We're gonna be discussing some win
Speaker 1: totals here now that we have the full picture.
Speaker 2: Jeff Parls, Jeff, how are you doing good?
Speaker 3: Tom.
Speaker 4: It's a pleasure is always to be with you, buddy.
Speaker 2: It's a pleasure to have you back on.
Speaker 1: And like I said, in the NFL schedule it is out.
Speaker 1: We know every game now. We know the Lions will
Speaker 1: not be on primetime, we know that the Jets will
Speaker 1: have an amazing Thursday night showdown with the Jaguars, and
Speaker 1: we know there are a couple other games nobody cares about,
Speaker 1: like the Buccaneers versus the Bills and the Chiefs playing
Speaker 1: you know the game's no one's gonna want to watch
Speaker 1: the low action games.
Speaker 4: Hey man.
Speaker 3: We've known the opponents since the season ended. But it's
Speaker 3: good to know the sequence now, Tom, And I know
Speaker 3: we'll get into this, but I know people scoff at
Speaker 3: the schedule Liso. It's yeah, so it's ridiculous, but you
Speaker 3: know what perspective, you kind of actually need to know
Speaker 3: the sequence of events here because it does impact the
Speaker 3: way at least I bet season win totals if I'm
Speaker 3: gonna bet them, and quite frankly bending some playoff bets
Speaker 3: as well for some teams.
Speaker 1: I completely agree you can know the opponents. But the
Speaker 1: thing that most betters need to understand when you're gonna
Speaker 1: bet season win totals is it's not just looking at
Speaker 1: the team's number and going that's an eleven win team.
Speaker 1: That's a twelve win team. They can clear nine and
Speaker 1: a half wins easy. It is going through the schedule,
Speaker 1: breaking it down, saying okay, well this is where their
Speaker 1: bye week is. This is a really rough road stretch
Speaker 1: right here, this is a London game. Things like that
Speaker 1: come into play. You have to go through the schedule.
Speaker 1: In the way that we'd like to properly break it
Speaker 1: down is literally going game by game and saying this
Speaker 1: is a win, this is a loss. I think they
Speaker 1: win this game, and picking it out and finding out
Speaker 1: how you arrive at your number through that. The way
Speaker 1: I like to set it up is literally going through
Speaker 1: the schedule. Before I even look at a team's number,
Speaker 1: I want to know what my number for that team is,
Speaker 1: and then compare it to the book. Yeah.
Speaker 3: Look, I usually go through everything, and usually if I
Speaker 3: end up with a team, usually the number that I
Speaker 3: look for Tom is.
Speaker 4: One and a half win difference.
Speaker 3: If there is a one and a half win difference
Speaker 3: either way, then I look to bet it. If it's
Speaker 3: more than one and a half from what the market
Speaker 3: says to what I go through this.
Speaker 4: I'll probably do this three.
Speaker 3: Times before the season starts and go off my final
Speaker 3: one because the final one is the closest one to
Speaker 3: the season, and I know those win totals change, but
Speaker 3: injuries happen, and the last thing I want is to
Speaker 3: have a horrible.
Speaker 4: Position on a team.
Speaker 3: Or let's say, like again, I'm not betting this, but
Speaker 3: let's say hypothetically, you want the Chiefs over this year,
Speaker 3: and we'll get to them in a second.
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes gets hurt.
Speaker 3: But the way that schedule is the Chiefs may win
Speaker 3: five games, but if Mahomes is there, Homes is probably
Speaker 3: worth four or five wins.
Speaker 4: And I know the chief.
Speaker 3: Schedules is horrendous in the way of the difficulty there, Tom,
Speaker 3: So I would.
Speaker 4: Be looking up.
Speaker 3: I would just be going through the whole thing trying
Speaker 3: to find at least a win and a half difference
Speaker 3: from what you think to the book.
Speaker 4: If you get two to two and a half, great
Speaker 4: go ahead.
Speaker 3: I usually the biggest advantage I can remember was the
Speaker 3: Lions back in twenty nineteen.
Speaker 4: They were six and a half plus money under. I
Speaker 4: had them winning.
Speaker 3: Three, and that was like a quadruple bet for me
Speaker 3: and the Detroit Lions. In twenty nineteen, Tom.
Speaker 4: We're not good. No, we're not good.
Speaker 3: They were three twelve and one. So again I didn't
Speaker 3: have them with a tie, but.
Speaker 4: It was an easy under.
Speaker 3: It was as easy of an under as you're gonna
Speaker 3: have all the year. So I think that's just what
Speaker 3: you do. You go through the whole thing, you go
Speaker 3: through all the games. If you're a first instinct guy,
Speaker 3: and go with that, fine whatever. I usually i'll do one.
Speaker 3: I'll do one in about a week. I'm gonna let
Speaker 3: the dust settle here and go from there. Like a week.
Speaker 4: From when we're recording this, I'll have my first version of.
Speaker 3: This and then by I want to say, the end
Speaker 3: of the second week in the preseason, because a lot
Speaker 3: of the teams won't play their guys in that third
Speaker 3: preseason game.
Speaker 4: Now I'll be looking to do the the second.
Speaker 3: And final one, and then if I inevitably get bored
Speaker 3: in the summer when it's only baseball, I'll probably throw
Speaker 3: one of those other ones and see how it changes
Speaker 3: through the off season.
Speaker 4: But I very rarely change more than like a win
Speaker 4: or two across the board.
Speaker 3: If by accidentally have like a team going like, oh
Speaker 3: in seventeen, like no team's going oh in seventeen in
Speaker 3: this age in the NFL, Like it's not gonna happen.
Speaker 3: No one's probably going seventeen to no either for that regard.
Speaker 3: So like let's say hypothetically ahead and I don't have
Speaker 3: them with this just on the early look at it,
Speaker 3: Like hypothetically, let's say I had the Lions going oh
Speaker 3: in seventeen, like I would go back and change two
Speaker 3: games to make sure you get them two wins like
Speaker 3: no teams if the Texans last year were able to
Speaker 3: win multiple games, and teams are not, teams are not
Speaker 3: going in this new age with the extra game and
Speaker 3: teams like not officially taking weeks off.
Speaker 4: But we saw it last year. We saw as soon
Speaker 4: as Mike.
Speaker 3: White beat the Bengals on Halloween, everything went nuts, like
Speaker 3: we're none of upset. So you're gonna say, I think
Speaker 3: that's your more common on common day NFL. At this point,
Speaker 3: you're gonna have teams that with the extra game, like out,
Speaker 3: this team sucks, we don't either a game.
Speaker 4: Why don't we just take it a little bit easier.
Speaker 4: We'll still win.
Speaker 3: And then all of a sudden, the Texans are beating
Speaker 3: the Chargers and the Titans on the road that Mike
Speaker 3: White's thrown for four hundred yards against a team that
Speaker 3: inevitably makes the Super Bowl.
Speaker 4: Like, uh, like you think gets some wild stuff this year, Tom.
Speaker 3: So it's a little bit harder day in the past,
Speaker 3: But look, it's the NFL.
Speaker 4: Man.
Speaker 3: If you have a win and a half to win
Speaker 3: advantage based off of what you think, and again it's
Speaker 3: hard to find that you probably go you still go
Speaker 3: with it, even with the day and age of a
Speaker 3: little bit more a little more wonky results once you
Speaker 3: hit mid seas.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the NFL today is it is just the parody
Speaker 1: is so strong. Even with Yes, there's obviously a huge
Speaker 1: gap between the Jaguars and the Chiefs. Of course, any
Speaker 1: team can still go out on any week and beat
Speaker 1: any other team. It truly is the any given Sunday sport.
Speaker 1: These are all professionals. The variance is so great that
Speaker 1: being said, win totals can be a good way to
Speaker 1: make a nice little future investment off that. And we've
Speaker 1: already talked about how you're gonna go about breaking the
Speaker 1: schedule down. We'll get into a couple specific teams here.
Speaker 1: This is just some preliminary looks. Obviously, in your case,
Speaker 1: you're thinking the best time to bet these is going
Speaker 1: to be right before the season starts, when you have
Speaker 1: a good picture of what the market is looking like
Speaker 1: and what these teams are going to look like. You
Speaker 1: know what the preseason injuries are gonna be Like.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, Tom, that's the way I do it. Everyone
Speaker 3: has their own rhyme or reason. I like, if someone
Speaker 3: thinks they have in a vanda, let's take the let's
Speaker 3: just start.
Speaker 4: I know we're gonna bring up the Jets. Why don't
Speaker 4: we we stay there top.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's get into them.
Speaker 3: Because the Jet win totals five and a half at
Speaker 3: most places with heavy juice on the over, and inevitably
Speaker 3: I think they will.
Speaker 4: Hit a six.
Speaker 3: So, like, there are some teams where if you want
Speaker 3: the over or if you want to basically beat the
Speaker 3: market to the punch and then come back on a
Speaker 3: plus number or a better number or hell of it
Speaker 3: gets six and a half fine an all six and
Speaker 3: a half all seven betting under try to get the
Speaker 3: Jets to land six or seven wins. I don't have
Speaker 3: a problem with that, And there are some other teams,
Speaker 3: like if you didn't bet the Eagles to go over
Speaker 3: to win totally, you're already betting into a market that's
Speaker 3: not as good if you like that over right now,
Speaker 3: that was eight and a half the whole time, nine
Speaker 3: and a half this morning on DraftKings and the Jews
Speaker 3: is on the over, which I actually think is correct.
Speaker 3: I think the Eagles are probably a ten win team
Speaker 3: this year if they were able to get close to
Speaker 3: that last year with with a team that I didn't
Speaker 3: think was any good. But there are plenty of ways
Speaker 3: to bet this time, and I just go my way
Speaker 3: and find your style, find your correct style, and also
Speaker 3: get chop around. That's the biggest thing is everything to
Speaker 3: to shop around, make sure get the best number on things.
Speaker 1: And the best way that you can shop around and
Speaker 1: get that best number, head on over to bettingpros dot com.
Speaker 4: The I see what I did there.
Speaker 2: Yes, you've got you have to have the plug in there.
Speaker 1: Seriously, while prepping this show, the first place I went
Speaker 1: was right to our own website because they have not
Speaker 1: just odds to win Division, super Bowl, all of that
Speaker 1: forever NFL team. They've got the win totals and they've
Speaker 1: got them all broken out. You can see at every shop.
Speaker 1: That's how I know, like you said, the Jets are
Speaker 1: going to get to six. They're already at six at
Speaker 1: bet Rivers right now. I think the market is going
Speaker 1: to go in that direction. You're right, there's still five
Speaker 1: and a half juiced at DraftKings. I see them going
Speaker 1: into the six. But let's get into the Jets. They're
Speaker 1: the first team I have up on my notes. I'll
Speaker 1: tell you looking at the schedule, those first nine games
Speaker 1: are brutal. You start off playing the entire AFC North.
Speaker 1: That's the first four games, and then you have a
Speaker 1: week ten by I think that they're only going to
Speaker 1: have about three wins heading into that buy. I think
Speaker 1: the Steelers are beatable, I think the Browns are beatable,
Speaker 1: and I think the Dolphins are beatable. But you look
Speaker 1: at the rest of that schedule, and it is ugly, Jeff,
Speaker 1: and it doesn't get a whole lot better. On the
Speaker 1: other side, you have Week twelve versus the Bears. That's
Speaker 1: got potential depending on how the Bears start the season
Speaker 1: out a lot of unknowns, their new coaching staff, obviously
Speaker 1: second year quarterback.
Speaker 2: In Justin Fields.
Speaker 1: Then you've got Week fifteen in Detroit versus Detroit, Week
Speaker 1: sixteen versus Jacksonville. That's a big back to back right there,
Speaker 1: and Week seventeen at Seattle. They've got a long week
Speaker 1: there after the Jags game Thursday night. But I don't
Speaker 1: think that they can string three wins together in that
Speaker 1: stretch like that, which tells me that they're probably gonna
Speaker 1: go under that six. I'm kind of like fit hitting
Speaker 1: our own team here.
Speaker 3: I will probably if I can get a five and
Speaker 3: a half that's a little better than minus one forty juice,
Speaker 3: that probably still go over. They're vastly improved from what
Speaker 3: they were a year ago.
Speaker 4: And look they're starting Tom.
Speaker 3: It's been the interminable rebuild at this point, it just
Speaker 3: has been. But they are much better, like they are
Speaker 3: much better than they were a year ago, and they
Speaker 3: look Tom an absurd blown lead at the end against Tampa,
Speaker 3: where if Wilson doesn't do the ridiculous hold the ball
Speaker 3: for no reason do to QB sneak on four to
Speaker 3: two and a half, the Jets probably win that game.
Speaker 3: The opportunities to be Carolina and they had opportunities to
Speaker 3: be to Atlanta. Like, again, I'm mentioning two crappy teams
Speaker 3: in there, but look, I expect.
Speaker 4: Them to be better.
Speaker 3: And five and a half is a very low total,
Speaker 3: Like you're expecting them to be a bottom five team.
Speaker 3: Basically if they go under that, I don't think they're
Speaker 3: a bottom five team. I think they're probably closer to
Speaker 3: being team the bottom ten, bottom twelve. But look tom
Speaker 3: the schedule, and this was the sequencing we knew going
Speaker 3: in the Jets schedule was going to look pretty brutal.
Speaker 4: The sequencing socks for them.
Speaker 3: They played all the AFC North, which may be the
Speaker 3: most competitive division in the NFL. I know the AFC
Speaker 3: West still exists, but the AFC North could be very
Speaker 3: competitive because those teams are all to me closely bunched together,
Speaker 3: where you can have everyone.
Speaker 4: Ending up nine and eight, ten and seven.
Speaker 3: Not as sparkly of records as I think the teams
Speaker 3: out west will be but it will be a very
Speaker 3: competitive division and Jets play all four of those teams
Speaker 3: right away.
Speaker 4: They have to go to Lambeau.
Speaker 3: I don't think that's as intimidating as it would be
Speaker 3: in the past.
Speaker 4: But you're not going to pick the Jets to win
Speaker 4: a game in green Bay.
Speaker 3: I mean, even with green Bay coming off the London game.
Speaker 3: But Tom, I think you those first nine because the
Speaker 3: week ten by week Yeah, they can beat Baltimore. I'm
Speaker 3: not saying they will be I would not bet that
Speaker 3: at all, but they can beat Baltimore. They can beat
Speaker 3: any of those AFC North teams. They can beat Miami.
Speaker 3: They're not winning at green Bay. Theer not winning at Denver.
Speaker 3: They always play horrible Denver, regardless of what the Broncos are.
Speaker 3: I mean, hell, even Brett Rippon beat them a few
Speaker 3: years ago. But to me, if the Jets are gonna
Speaker 3: go over, you gotta get the divisional home games.
Speaker 4: The Jets have been brutal in the division for years now.
Speaker 4: And if you beat Miami and New England at home,
Speaker 4: with the way.
Speaker 3: That the rest of your schedule goes out, and the
Speaker 3: Jets do catch a break that Jacksonville is a home game,
Speaker 3: a game that if it was on the road, they
Speaker 3: might lose. If at home on a cold December night,
Speaker 3: maybe in front of a thirty five thousand people met life,
Speaker 3: I actually like the jets chances there.
Speaker 4: Getting Detroit at home is a big deal, and they.
Speaker 3: If you go to ford Field this year, I actually
Speaker 3: think the Jets probably would lose that game on the
Speaker 3: road this year, but at home, I actually like them
Speaker 3: at home in Chicago, I think the Bears are gonna
Speaker 3: be terrible.
Speaker 4: I think the Bear would be one of.
Speaker 3: The three worst teams in the league, so you got
Speaker 3: to get all those games where the Jets are either
Speaker 3: comparable or better than those teams. I still like this
Speaker 3: over time. I think they're going to find a way
Speaker 3: to scratch out seven. I think they'll be competitive. I
Speaker 3: think we'll actually look the part of a seven and
Speaker 3: ten team, which is good enough to get us over
Speaker 3: five and a half six. So I'll have to go
Speaker 3: through it in full, but I think they're gonna be
Speaker 3: good enough. Due Leies get to that bye week at
Speaker 3: three and six, and if you get to that bye
Speaker 3: week at three and six, you're probably going over because
Speaker 3: three and five on the three and five on the
Speaker 3: back end with that week's schedule actually to me seem like.
Speaker 4: A little bit of a disappointment.
Speaker 1: I agree, And you know, the last four weeks of
Speaker 1: the season are always the Jets super Bowl. It's meaninglessly
Speaker 1: this playoff time to start trying. Look, I've got you
Speaker 1: all over my shoulder here. You know that I want
Speaker 1: to see this. If this team wins seven or eight games,
Speaker 1: I as a fan will be thrilled because it will
Speaker 1: mean that we're trending in the right direction. And Zach
Speaker 1: Wilson might actually look the part. But we could do
Speaker 1: an entire hour talking just about the Jets.
Speaker 4: Here.
Speaker 1: Let's move on and shift from one of the worst
Speaker 1: teams in the league to a team that everybody always
Speaker 1: has is one of the best, and that is Kansas City.
Speaker 1: Their total is at ten and a half right now.
Speaker 1: Part of me likes the over, but I am honestly
Speaker 1: with you, this schedule is pretty brutal. I think the
Speaker 1: forty nine ers are bad. I think that it's pretty
Speaker 1: nice that they get Arizona without Hopkins to start the
Speaker 1: season and you get to play the Rams and Bills
Speaker 1: at home, which is big. But oh, there are a
Speaker 1: lot of good teams on this schedule, and I think
Speaker 1: this is a Chiefs team that is going to take
Speaker 1: a step back. I'd be inclined to take them under
Speaker 1: that win total. I think that they're going to have
Speaker 1: a very hard.
Speaker 2: Time without Tyreek Hill.
Speaker 4: I disagree with you on the Niners.
Speaker 3: I actually think the Niners will be fine even with
Speaker 3: that confusing quarterback situation, unless of Lance, Unless of Lance
Speaker 3: is the guy in Lance just totally sucks, which could happen.
Speaker 2: We'll talk about the Niners in a moment here a
Speaker 2: little bit.
Speaker 3: But Tom, the Chiefs are the first team in the
Speaker 3: league history to have the first eight games of the
Speaker 3: season against teams that finished over five hundred the following year. Yeah,
Speaker 3: our previous year, I should say, first team in the
Speaker 3: history of the league to do that. And look top
Speaker 3: this is even even with like you look at this schedule.
Speaker 3: They'll beat Jacksonville, they'll beat Houston, they'll beat Seattle. Other
Speaker 3: than that, this schedule, you could make an argument that
Speaker 3: they could win or lose every game. Now, it's odd
Speaker 3: to say that again about a Patrick Mahomes team, And
Speaker 3: of course, the Chiefs are not gonna go three and fourteen, Like,
Speaker 3: that's not gonna happen. Could you imagine even too good
Speaker 3: Andy Reid is too good of a coach to allow
Speaker 3: that to happen. And they will be favored, Tom realistically,
Speaker 3: even with that insane stretch to begin the season. My
Speaker 3: guess is that they will be favored in more than
Speaker 3: half of those eight games against the teams that finished.
Speaker 4: Over five hundred. They'll be favored probably in five or
Speaker 4: six of those games. They'll be a dog.
Speaker 3: At Tampa, and depending on what the Buffalo Bills and
Speaker 3: forty nine ers look like at the times they play
Speaker 3: those teams, they will probably either be a slight home
Speaker 3: dog to Buffalo or a slight home favorite against Buffalo.
Speaker 3: Same deal in San Francisco. Of the nine are good,
Speaker 3: so Tom, it's just hard to go over ten and
Speaker 3: a half. You're asking a team to win eleven games
Speaker 3: in the most competitive division in the league, in a
Speaker 3: division that I think all four teams have a realistic
Speaker 3: shot to make the playoffs, and you're gonna be fighting
Speaker 3: at the beginning of the year like we saw last
Speaker 3: year looked ugly at the beginning of the year for
Speaker 3: them with Tyreek Hill there.
Speaker 4: Now you haven't you don't have your deep threat anymore.
Speaker 3: Teams are going to try to take Travis Kelcey out
Speaker 3: of the game as much as humanly possible, And for me,
Speaker 3: I thought they got lucky getting Arizona week one. I
Speaker 3: don't think the Cardinals are particularly good even if they
Speaker 3: had Hoppins and the road game in Week three, Indianapolis
Speaker 3: like it's a winnable game, even though it's a tough
Speaker 3: road game, it's a winnable road game. And I think there.
Speaker 3: I think ten and a half's probably about right. I
Speaker 3: would only lean to the under because it's hard to
Speaker 3: go over ten and a half with that type of schedule,
Speaker 3: but it will be no bet for me. I like
Speaker 3: the Chargers to win that division. I really do. And
Speaker 3: if the Chargers win Week two in that first Amazon game,
Speaker 3: then I think it's a whole different mix. But again,
Speaker 3: Chargers had the freaking division on the rocket last year.
Speaker 3: Your managed to blow that game and somehow missed the playoffs.
Speaker 3: So I again, it's still Kansas City's.
Speaker 4: Division to lose.
Speaker 3: And look, when you have all these teams that are
Speaker 3: really good and they beat the crap out of each other,
Speaker 3: who knows, maybe we get something weird into the AGC
Speaker 3: West the whole division ends at ten and seven or
Speaker 3: something like that.
Speaker 2: I entirely possible.
Speaker 1: I think that this is going to be an absolutely
Speaker 1: wild ride in the division, which everybody thinks, but I
Speaker 1: just I have a hard time.
Speaker 2: I have a hard time taking the over. I'm with you.
Speaker 1: The good news is, I think the public is going
Speaker 1: to take the over. I think if we wait long enough,
Speaker 1: we can see this to get up to eleven, maybe
Speaker 1: eleven and a half if we really believe, and then
Speaker 1: you could take an under because let's face it, Travis
Speaker 1: Kelsey's not getting any younger. Juju Smith Schuster is there now,
Speaker 1: but that's still not He and Marquez the Scantling are
Speaker 1: not replacements for Tyreek Hill. This offense is going to
Speaker 1: have a harder time than it's used to. I think
Speaker 1: things could be very surprising for us on the Chiefs front.
Speaker 2: I'm with you.
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Speaker 1: over to the forty nine ers, because their total is
Speaker 1: at ten games on DraftKings minus one ten each way.
Speaker 1: Right now, I'm going under all the way. I see
Speaker 1: this team ceiling at eight waves. I think they got
Speaker 1: very lucky last year to get as far as they did.
Speaker 1: They have no answer at QB. Jimmy g is not good.
Speaker 1: He is trash. They don't want him. Problem is nobody
Speaker 1: else wants him and they want to turn to Trey
Speaker 1: Land at some point, except for the fact that Kyle
Speaker 1: Shanahan probably doesn't want to. They have an easy early
Speaker 1: road schedule. Yeah, the Bears, the Panthers, and the Falcons
Speaker 1: are all very winnable road games. But the home schedule
Speaker 1: Miami and Washington winnable. But Chiefs, Bucks and Chargers are
Speaker 1: tough home opponents, throwing a QB controversy, and hey, a
Speaker 1: tough New Year's Day road game in Vegas again. I
Speaker 1: don't see this team getting more than eight wins on
Speaker 1: the schedule.
Speaker 4: It's funny.
Speaker 3: I go through it quickly, and I think I see ten.
Speaker 3: I think the numbers right. I think the numbers spot on,
Speaker 3: and it really the Niners are going to be the
Speaker 3: hardest team the handicap the going into the season for sure,
Speaker 3: because even though I know you don't like Jimmy Garoppolo.
Speaker 3: I know people don't like Jimmy Garoppolo, But Jimmy, you're
Speaker 3: going to win games with him in the regular season though,
Speaker 3: if he's healthy. That's always been what he's been with
Speaker 3: Shanahan in San Francisco. When Garoppolo has been healthy, they've won. Now,
Speaker 3: has it looked pretty No? Not sometimes it has. Most
Speaker 3: of the time it has it, But he wins games
Speaker 3: when Kyle Shannan is his head coach. Now, the big
Speaker 3: question is there's a reason that Garoppolo is still on
Speaker 3: his roster, and I think it's more than oh, they
Speaker 3: haven't gotten the proper offer that they wanted for him.
Speaker 3: I don't think they buy Trey Lance still. I don't
Speaker 3: think they think he's ready. And if it ends up
Speaker 3: being Trey Lance before this team, I can't bet this
Speaker 3: at all period. I lean under if it's Lance because
Speaker 3: he again, we saw him twice last year they ran
Speaker 3: the freaking air force wing tee against Arizona the first
Speaker 3: go around and then the game against Houston. He was
Speaker 3: horrible in the first half, played well in the second,
Speaker 3: and I don't know, I just I don't see again.
Speaker 3: Could he be end up being really good. Of course
Speaker 3: you take a guy like that at number three because
Speaker 3: of the high ceiling. The problem is the floor is
Speaker 3: low with him, as we kind of saw on those
Speaker 3: two starts. So I'm not betting San Francisco. I think
Speaker 3: that the hardest team to handicap because their ceiling is
Speaker 3: very high, kind of high Lance. Their ceiling is very high.
Speaker 3: If Trey Lance starts and ends up being really good
Speaker 3: and their ceiling is really low, if he ends up stinking,
Speaker 3: and we're gonna kind of know right away because those
Speaker 3: first two games this year.
Speaker 4: At Chicago, they are almost a touchdown road favorite in
Speaker 4: that game.
Speaker 3: In the opening numbers in week one, you don't see
Speaker 3: that very often. Yeah, we have two of those games
Speaker 3: this year, and in Week two they play Seattle at
Speaker 3: home in Seattle. Is not any going on bad If
Speaker 3: Trey Lance looks bad at those two games, that is
Speaker 3: a very bad sign for what San Francisco is.
Speaker 4: Gonna be this year.
Speaker 3: If he looks good, then the Niners are gonna be
Speaker 3: a playoff team again. I think Ten's right, Tom. I
Speaker 3: think it's unbettable right now because of the unknown factor
Speaker 3: in last.
Speaker 1: I think that's fair. I'm just not high on this
Speaker 1: team either way. That being said, obviously, wait and see
Speaker 1: what's gonna happen to start this season. Well, as we
Speaker 1: get closer and start the preseason, see where they're venturing
Speaker 1: at quarterback. I think Trey Lance is probably gonna get
Speaker 1: the starting gig week one, simply because of how easy
Speaker 1: the opening schedule is. They're gonna want to get him
Speaker 1: out there for the easy games rather than having Jimmy
Speaker 1: g soak up some of those and then maybe make
Speaker 1: it even harder to go to Lance. I see that
Speaker 1: as how the game theory is going to play out
Speaker 1: here with this team. But we'll see as the preseason
Speaker 1: rolls closer. The next team I want to talk to
Speaker 1: you about here the Green Bay Packers. Sure this is
Speaker 1: gonna be a tough one this year for them. Eleven
Speaker 1: and a half at Fox bet ten and a half
Speaker 1: at Fandal. Again, you can find all of these numbers
Speaker 1: quick to compare bettingpros dot com odds. They opened at Minnesota,
Speaker 1: and I think that's an l to start off the season.
Speaker 1: They don't play everyone in the preseason. We know that
Speaker 1: they don't like to do that, and we saw what
Speaker 1: that Russ did to them last year versus the Saints
Speaker 1: when they got walloped in Week one. But I think
Speaker 1: with no Adams, this team takes a step back on offense.
Speaker 1: Playing the Giants in London is definitely helped by a
Speaker 1: second bye week versus the Jets, but I think they
Speaker 1: drop at least one in that stretch of New York,
Speaker 1: New York and Washington, and while the schedule is favorable,
Speaker 1: I just don't see them getting to twelve.
Speaker 4: They should have been Washington last year.
Speaker 3: I mean, if you remember that game, freaking Heineke kept
Speaker 3: they Washington kept getting in the red zone and not
Speaker 3: score and that was probably the worst beat of the
Speaker 3: entire NFL season, getting getting over a touchdown in that
Speaker 3: game and still not getting there on Washington.
Speaker 4: Look, I think Green Bay is hard for me.
Speaker 3: I don't I don't know what to do with them
Speaker 3: because we know Aaron Rodgers is great, but now their
Speaker 3: number one receivers animals are like at some point not
Speaker 3: having Devonte Adams, and I know they have played well
Speaker 3: with Adams out in the past. At some point him
Speaker 3: not being there has to hurt. And I don't know,
Speaker 3: well Christian Watson turned into a legitimate number one wide
Speaker 3: receiver right away.
Speaker 4: Who knows.
Speaker 3: I will say this is the best defense on paper.
Speaker 3: Green Bay is a on aut in a while, so
Speaker 3: that does help it.
Speaker 4: I like them week one.
Speaker 3: I think Minnesota's gonna be a big bust again, even
Speaker 3: though the one thing I will say, having O'Connell there
Speaker 3: as the head coach instead of Zimmer, We're gonna see
Speaker 3: how bad Mike Zimmer really was, or if it just
Speaker 3: was that it had just run his course with Zimmer
Speaker 3: and he's actually still a good coach, but it just
Speaker 3: he just ran his course for being there as long
Speaker 3: as he was.
Speaker 4: But look, they get they get Tampa week three. They've
Speaker 4: been horrible in this era since Brady's gotten there. Against
Speaker 4: the Bucks, they lost both of those games.
Speaker 3: But I will say this schedule kind of is conducive
Speaker 3: to win a lot of games, like they'll lose at Buffalo,
Speaker 3: probably on a Sunday night the.
Speaker 4: Week in Halloween.
Speaker 3: I think they'll go three and oh in that stretch
Speaker 3: that includes the one London game. Like they usually beat
Speaker 3: up on bad teams in the Rogers era, they usually
Speaker 3: don't lose the teams they shouldn't lose too. They'll lose
Speaker 3: the good teams, but they won't blow the games, like
Speaker 3: they're not gonna lose the Chicago Week two but you're
Speaker 3: not gonna happen.
Speaker 4: So I think that number is right.
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna bet it though, just because and again
Speaker 3: I hate giving you.
Speaker 4: I'm not betting this.
Speaker 3: But green Bay and San Francisco are probably the two
Speaker 3: most complex NFC teams going into the year because like Dallas,
Speaker 3: like all right, their schedule, they play six games against
Speaker 3: teams we know they're better then, even though I know
Speaker 3: people like Philly this year, Dallas is still more talented
Speaker 3: than philm and they played the first place schedule, so
Speaker 3: they they have to play green Bay.
Speaker 4: They have to play well, they get.
Speaker 3: Green Bay because of the NFCS, but they have to
Speaker 3: play the Buccaneers. They have to play the Rams. They
Speaker 3: get the the they get they get the Bengals on
Speaker 3: the flip for the extra AFC game.
Speaker 4: Now, like, all right, you get a sense like Dallas
Speaker 4: may be talented, but that schedule is pretty difficult outside
Speaker 4: of the division, and you know what they are.
Speaker 3: You know what the Cowboys are with Mike McCarthy. They're
Speaker 3: very talented and very horribly coached. But with Green Bay,
Speaker 3: like with Green Bay in San Francisco, San Francisco, again,
Speaker 3: when you don't know the quarterback situation, it's tough. And
Speaker 3: with Green Bay we are talking about a very different
Speaker 3: situation than what we are accustomed to with that team.
Speaker 3: So again, again I hate saying like, oh I don't
Speaker 3: like this all like that. But here's the other thing though,
Speaker 3: Tom and I gotta bring this up because of the
Speaker 3: reason of having two bets, the two teams that don't
Speaker 3: like a bet on. There are ways to bet this
Speaker 3: through the season, but there are there are adjusted win totals,
Speaker 3: and San Francisco maybe a good one to possibly hop
Speaker 3: on what happens if they win the first two games
Speaker 3: and looked royally unimpressive and that win total hopped to
Speaker 3: eleven and a half twelve probably, And we saw this with.
Speaker 4: Denver last year.
Speaker 3: Denver because they won against the Giants on the road
Speaker 3: is a favoritem went up two whole wins at one
Speaker 3: and oh after week one, and they had the next
Speaker 3: two weeks the Great Jaguars and Jets back to back
Speaker 3: to two teams they're supposed to beat, and that win
Speaker 3: total went up to ten and a half based off
Speaker 3: of beating three bad teams. And what happened with Denver,
Speaker 3: they went way the hell under the ten and a half.
Speaker 3: So there are opportunities. Just pay attention, Like if San
Speaker 3: Francisco looks unimpressive and two wins against two teams they're
Speaker 3: supposed to to beat, maybe you come back with it
Speaker 3: with adjusted under with Green Bay, you know what, there
Speaker 3: there might even be a case.
Speaker 4: To go over for them in the season, Like.
Speaker 3: If Aaron Rodgers, like, oh, you know what, DeVante as
Speaker 3: great as Devanta Adams was, Aaron Rodgers is still the
Speaker 3: best talented quarterback we've ever seen, and the Packers offense
Speaker 3: looks really good, So like there are ways to bet
Speaker 3: this end. Same with our Jets, Like at some point,
Speaker 3: like if the Jets start one to nine and an
Speaker 3: adjusted win total goes down to two and a half,
Speaker 3: guess well, We're.
Speaker 4: Gonna bet that over.
Speaker 3: Ye'd have been it over because the Jets will win,
Speaker 3: probably because Tom there's no franchise that's done a better
Speaker 3: job of ruining the draft pick better than the New
Speaker 3: York Jets.
Speaker 4: Oh you like, Yeah, of course they'll win.
Speaker 3: Three of their last five games to fall from pick
Speaker 3: number two to pick number six. Like I mean, there
Speaker 3: are plenty of ways to bet this, and that's Look,
Speaker 3: that's the good thing with being in this post paths
Speaker 3: of War world where you can you can bet these
Speaker 3: continuously and the books that put these up credit them.
Speaker 4: We have more opportunities.
Speaker 1: Now, guys, real quick, remember when you're looking for free
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Speaker 1: Jeff, I want to ask you about one more team
Speaker 1: before I let you go here, and that is the
Speaker 1: Super Bowl runner ups, the Bengals. The number around ten
Speaker 1: and a half right now, And I know you have
Speaker 1: thoughts on this team. I thought that they overachieved a
Speaker 1: little bit getting to the super Bowl in what I
Speaker 1: thought was going to be a decent year for them.
Speaker 1: I thought they were a playoff possibility, and of course
Speaker 1: they blew out all expectations many in as far as
Speaker 1: they did this year, I expected them to take more
Speaker 1: of that step to being a legit contender. What do
Speaker 1: you think is gonna happen? Are they going to regress
Speaker 1: with that Super Bowl loss hangover? Or do you think
Speaker 1: that they should be right there in the conversation again.
Speaker 3: Again, I'll go back to what we said earlier about
Speaker 3: the AFC North. That's gonna be an extraordinarily competitive division.
Speaker 4: Because all those teams. I know, Look, I know Pittsburgh
Speaker 4: has as low of win total as they've ever had.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it doesn't matter.
Speaker 3: They've they've sucked two of the last three years, and
Speaker 3: they were in the play in the playoffs last year
Speaker 3: with a bad team, and they went five hundred with
Speaker 3: Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph playing quarterback in twenty nineteen.
Speaker 3: It doesn't matter, it doesn't matter what they aren't growing
Speaker 3: the win games.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 4: And for the Bengals this, I'm actually going to go
Speaker 4: back to what I said before. What I just said.
Speaker 3: They're a great team to monitor through the year to
Speaker 3: figure out an in season win total bet.
Speaker 4: Because they're schedule.
Speaker 3: They own the Steelers last year, they destroyed them twice.
Speaker 3: They get them week one. Now, we saw last year
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh somehow won in Buffalo Week one. Maybe Pittsburgh has
Speaker 3: another trick up their sleeve early in the season with Trubisky.
Speaker 3: I don't think that would be the case. They played
Speaker 3: Dallas League two, tough game, but winnable, and Cincinnati after
Speaker 3: that gets the Jets of the Dolphins on a short
Speaker 3: week at home, they get Atlanta, they get Carolina like
Speaker 3: they get a bunch of winnable games. But the back
Speaker 3: end of that schedule is very difficult. After the bye,
Speaker 3: Top got Tennessee, Kansas City, Cleveland at Tampa, at New England, Buffalo, Baltimore.
Speaker 3: That schedule is brutal. Though after the bye week, which
Speaker 3: is Week number ten. That is a team that if
Speaker 3: the cracks start to show a little bit, maybe you say,
Speaker 3: oh wow, all right, Cincinnati got out seven and two
Speaker 3: or something like that. Pre boy, that would be a
Speaker 3: very high wind total to get over in just a
Speaker 3: in season.
Speaker 4: They're a team with.
Speaker 3: That back end schedule being much tougher than the beginning.
Speaker 3: Like if Cincinnati gets through seven and two to beginning
Speaker 3: of the year, it probably look to come back under
Speaker 3: because they probably go five hundred on the back end,
Speaker 3: go eleven and six.
Speaker 4: That feels about right that.
Speaker 3: In season win justin winter, it will probably be eleven
Speaker 3: and a half twelve at that point if they're not,
Speaker 3: if they are well above water at.
Speaker 4: The bye week at week ten toimes.
Speaker 3: So that's the one I've been pinpointing the most actually
Speaker 3: for in season wagering Bengals get out to a big start,
Speaker 3: come back with an under in season. If Joe Burrow's
Speaker 3: every bit as good as everyone thinks, though maybe I'm
Speaker 3: out of luck.
Speaker 4: But if Joe Burrow beats me and goes thirteen and four,
Speaker 4: so be it.
Speaker 1: There you go, Jeff, thank you so much for joining
Speaker 1: me today. Really appreciate the time. Where can people find
Speaker 1: you and the work you're doing.
Speaker 3: Yeah at Jeff Parls on the tweets, v SIN place
Speaker 3: to watch me, Numbers Game with Gil Alexander, and other
Speaker 3: programs on the weekend schedule changing on the time.
Speaker 1: Tom, Jeff again, thank you so much for your time today.
Speaker 1: Best of luck with the entire season. I'm sure I'll
Speaker 1: be talking to you again real soon. As a matter
Speaker 1: of fact, I'm sure we'll be sharing a beer or two.
Speaker 4: Without worried about that, Tom, I would say so.
Speaker 1: Tom, all right, have a good one and guys, best
Speaker 1: of luck this week. You can find me on Twitter,
Speaker 1: at TV, at work, and don't forget hand on over
Speaker 1: to bettingpros dot com. We've got everything you need to
Speaker 1: get ready for the NFL season. It's a long summer
Speaker 1: of prep and we're excited for it. Have a good one, everybody,