WEBVTT - 2022 NFL Schedule Release Breakdown, Team Predictions & NFL Win Totals (Ep. 171) 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:04.000 Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. 0:00:04.200 --> 0:00:07.440 I'm Thomas Yola and joining me today to talk about 0:00:07.440 --> 0:00:10.400 the NFL schedule release. We're gonna be discussing some win 0:00:10.560 --> 0:00:12.840 totals here now that we have the full picture. 0:00:13.240 --> 0:00:15.680 Jeff Parls, Jeff, how are you doing good? 0:00:15.760 --> 0:00:16.040 Tom. 0:00:16.079 --> 0:00:18.440 It's a pleasure is always to be with you, buddy. 0:00:18.920 --> 0:00:20.680 It's a pleasure to have you back on. 0:00:20.920 --> 0:00:24.000 And like I said, in the NFL schedule it is out. 0:00:24.160 --> 0:00:26.520 We know every game now. We know the Lions will 0:00:26.560 --> 0:00:29.480 not be on primetime, we know that the Jets will 0:00:29.520 --> 0:00:33.159 have an amazing Thursday night showdown with the Jaguars, and 0:00:33.200 --> 0:00:35.440 we know there are a couple other games nobody cares about, 0:00:35.440 --> 0:00:38.320 like the Buccaneers versus the Bills and the Chiefs playing 0:00:38.440 --> 0:00:40.800 you know the game's no one's gonna want to watch 0:00:40.840 --> 0:00:42.839 the low action games. 0:00:43.360 --> 0:00:43.800 Hey man. 0:00:45.040 --> 0:00:49.520 We've known the opponents since the season ended. But it's 0:00:49.520 --> 0:00:51.680 good to know the sequence now, Tom, And I know 0:00:51.720 --> 0:00:55.279 we'll get into this, but I know people scoff at 0:00:55.280 --> 0:00:58.800 the schedule Liso. It's yeah, so it's ridiculous, but you 0:00:58.800 --> 0:01:02.600 know what perspective, you kind of actually need to know 0:01:02.680 --> 0:01:05.600 the sequence of events here because it does impact the 0:01:05.640 --> 0:01:08.560 way at least I bet season win totals if I'm 0:01:08.560 --> 0:01:12.759 gonna bet them, and quite frankly bending some playoff bets 0:01:12.760 --> 0:01:13.880 as well for some teams. 0:01:14.440 --> 0:01:17.600 I completely agree you can know the opponents. But the 0:01:17.640 --> 0:01:20.280 thing that most betters need to understand when you're gonna 0:01:20.319 --> 0:01:23.920 bet season win totals is it's not just looking at 0:01:23.920 --> 0:01:26.800 the team's number and going that's an eleven win team. 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:29.240 That's a twelve win team. They can clear nine and 0:01:29.240 --> 0:01:32.200 a half wins easy. It is going through the schedule, 0:01:32.319 --> 0:01:34.560 breaking it down, saying okay, well this is where their 0:01:34.560 --> 0:01:37.720 bye week is. This is a really rough road stretch 0:01:37.800 --> 0:01:40.800 right here, this is a London game. Things like that 0:01:40.920 --> 0:01:43.320 come into play. You have to go through the schedule. 0:01:43.319 --> 0:01:45.160 In the way that we'd like to properly break it 0:01:45.200 --> 0:01:48.800 down is literally going game by game and saying this 0:01:48.840 --> 0:01:51.200 is a win, this is a loss. I think they 0:01:51.240 --> 0:01:53.520 win this game, and picking it out and finding out 0:01:53.600 --> 0:01:56.200 how you arrive at your number through that. The way 0:01:56.240 --> 0:01:58.480 I like to set it up is literally going through 0:01:58.520 --> 0:02:01.120 the schedule. Before I even look at a team's number, 0:02:01.480 --> 0:02:04.080 I want to know what my number for that team is, 0:02:04.360 --> 0:02:07.960 and then compare it to the book. Yeah. 0:02:08.240 --> 0:02:12.639 Look, I usually go through everything, and usually if I 0:02:12.720 --> 0:02:14.880 end up with a team, usually the number that I 0:02:14.919 --> 0:02:15.920 look for Tom is. 0:02:17.880 --> 0:02:19.359 One and a half win difference. 0:02:20.080 --> 0:02:22.040 If there is a one and a half win difference 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:25.880 either way, then I look to bet it. If it's 0:02:25.960 --> 0:02:27.920 more than one and a half from what the market 0:02:28.000 --> 0:02:30.680 says to what I go through this. 0:02:31.000 --> 0:02:32.720 I'll probably do this three. 0:02:32.520 --> 0:02:35.880 Times before the season starts and go off my final 0:02:35.960 --> 0:02:37.800 one because the final one is the closest one to 0:02:37.840 --> 0:02:40.680 the season, and I know those win totals change, but 0:02:40.800 --> 0:02:43.240 injuries happen, and the last thing I want is to 0:02:43.240 --> 0:02:44.280 have a horrible. 0:02:43.880 --> 0:02:44.960 Position on a team. 0:02:45.320 --> 0:02:48.080 Or let's say, like again, I'm not betting this, but 0:02:48.200 --> 0:02:51.000 let's say hypothetically, you want the Chiefs over this year, 0:02:51.040 --> 0:02:52.480 and we'll get to them in a second. 0:02:52.680 --> 0:02:54.040 Patrick Mahomes gets hurt. 0:02:54.280 --> 0:02:57.120 But the way that schedule is the Chiefs may win 0:02:57.240 --> 0:03:00.720 five games, but if Mahomes is there, Homes is probably 0:03:00.720 --> 0:03:02.200 worth four or five wins. 0:03:02.639 --> 0:03:03.880 And I know the chief. 0:03:03.760 --> 0:03:09.120 Schedules is horrendous in the way of the difficulty there, Tom, 0:03:09.200 --> 0:03:10.720 So I would. 0:03:10.520 --> 0:03:11.280 Be looking up. 0:03:12.000 --> 0:03:14.240 I would just be going through the whole thing trying 0:03:14.280 --> 0:03:17.320 to find at least a win and a half difference 0:03:17.320 --> 0:03:18.680 from what you think to the book. 0:03:19.360 --> 0:03:21.280 If you get two to two and a half, great 0:03:21.360 --> 0:03:21.799 go ahead. 0:03:22.600 --> 0:03:25.840 I usually the biggest advantage I can remember was the 0:03:25.960 --> 0:03:27.440 Lions back in twenty nineteen. 0:03:27.480 --> 0:03:29.760 They were six and a half plus money under. I 0:03:29.800 --> 0:03:30.720 had them winning. 0:03:30.480 --> 0:03:33.880 Three, and that was like a quadruple bet for me 0:03:34.000 --> 0:03:37.560 and the Detroit Lions. In twenty nineteen, Tom. 0:03:37.960 --> 0:03:39.880 We're not good. No, we're not good. 0:03:40.080 --> 0:03:43.240 They were three twelve and one. So again I didn't 0:03:43.240 --> 0:03:44.800 have them with a tie, but. 0:03:45.160 --> 0:03:46.119 It was an easy under. 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:47.600 It was as easy of an under as you're gonna 0:03:47.600 --> 0:03:50.200 have all the year. So I think that's just what 0:03:50.520 --> 0:03:52.360 you do. You go through the whole thing, you go 0:03:52.400 --> 0:03:56.600 through all the games. If you're a first instinct guy, 0:03:56.680 --> 0:04:00.320 and go with that, fine whatever. I usually i'll do one. 0:04:00.520 --> 0:04:02.360 I'll do one in about a week. I'm gonna let 0:04:02.360 --> 0:04:05.720 the dust settle here and go from there. Like a week. 0:04:05.520 --> 0:04:08.080 From when we're recording this, I'll have my first version of. 0:04:08.040 --> 0:04:13.280 This and then by I want to say, the end 0:04:13.320 --> 0:04:16.680 of the second week in the preseason, because a lot 0:04:16.680 --> 0:04:18.400 of the teams won't play their guys in that third 0:04:18.440 --> 0:04:19.200 preseason game. 0:04:19.279 --> 0:04:22.680 Now I'll be looking to do the the second. 0:04:22.320 --> 0:04:24.760 And final one, and then if I inevitably get bored 0:04:24.760 --> 0:04:27.279 in the summer when it's only baseball, I'll probably throw 0:04:27.360 --> 0:04:29.200 one of those other ones and see how it changes 0:04:29.400 --> 0:04:30.200 through the off season. 0:04:30.279 --> 0:04:32.200 But I very rarely change more than like a win 0:04:32.279 --> 0:04:33.480 or two across the board. 0:04:33.520 --> 0:04:35.400 If by accidentally have like a team going like, oh 0:04:35.440 --> 0:04:38.080 in seventeen, like no team's going oh in seventeen in 0:04:38.120 --> 0:04:40.520 this age in the NFL, Like it's not gonna happen. 0:04:40.520 --> 0:04:43.239 No one's probably going seventeen to no either for that regard. 0:04:43.320 --> 0:04:46.159 So like let's say hypothetically ahead and I don't have 0:04:46.240 --> 0:04:47.880 them with this just on the early look at it, 0:04:47.920 --> 0:04:50.360 Like hypothetically, let's say I had the Lions going oh 0:04:50.360 --> 0:04:52.600 in seventeen, like I would go back and change two 0:04:52.680 --> 0:04:55.320 games to make sure you get them two wins like 0:04:55.440 --> 0:04:58.479 no teams if the Texans last year were able to 0:04:58.520 --> 0:05:02.240 win multiple games, and teams are not, teams are not 0:05:02.440 --> 0:05:04.520 going in this new age with the extra game and 0:05:04.560 --> 0:05:07.800 teams like not officially taking weeks off. 0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:10.160 But we saw it last year. We saw as soon 0:05:10.200 --> 0:05:10.839 as Mike. 0:05:10.680 --> 0:05:15.039 White beat the Bengals on Halloween, everything went nuts, like 0:05:15.279 --> 0:05:18.240 we're none of upset. So you're gonna say, I think 0:05:18.240 --> 0:05:21.159 that's your more common on common day NFL. At this point, 0:05:21.200 --> 0:05:23.520 you're gonna have teams that with the extra game, like out, 0:05:24.240 --> 0:05:26.000 this team sucks, we don't either a game. 0:05:26.279 --> 0:05:28.160 Why don't we just take it a little bit easier. 0:05:28.200 --> 0:05:28.680 We'll still win. 0:05:28.720 --> 0:05:30.839 And then all of a sudden, the Texans are beating 0:05:30.880 --> 0:05:33.479 the Chargers and the Titans on the road that Mike 0:05:33.560 --> 0:05:35.480 White's thrown for four hundred yards against a team that 0:05:35.520 --> 0:05:38.000 inevitably makes the Super Bowl. 0:05:37.640 --> 0:05:41.919 Like, uh, like you think gets some wild stuff this year, Tom. 0:05:42.000 --> 0:05:44.800 So it's a little bit harder day in the past, 0:05:44.839 --> 0:05:46.960 But look, it's the NFL. 0:05:47.080 --> 0:05:47.279 Man. 0:05:48.080 --> 0:05:49.560 If you have a win and a half to win 0:05:49.600 --> 0:05:52.320 advantage based off of what you think, and again it's 0:05:52.320 --> 0:05:55.320 hard to find that you probably go you still go 0:05:55.400 --> 0:05:57.000 with it, even with the day and age of a 0:05:57.000 --> 0:05:59.400 little bit more a little more wonky results once you 0:05:59.440 --> 0:05:59.960 hit mid seas. 0:06:00.839 --> 0:06:04.159 Yeah, the NFL today is it is just the parody 0:06:04.320 --> 0:06:08.320 is so strong. Even with Yes, there's obviously a huge 0:06:08.360 --> 0:06:12.200 gap between the Jaguars and the Chiefs. Of course, any 0:06:12.279 --> 0:06:15.000 team can still go out on any week and beat 0:06:15.040 --> 0:06:18.159 any other team. It truly is the any given Sunday sport. 0:06:18.240 --> 0:06:22.200 These are all professionals. The variance is so great that 0:06:22.360 --> 0:06:25.560 being said, win totals can be a good way to 0:06:25.640 --> 0:06:29.840 make a nice little future investment off that. And we've 0:06:29.880 --> 0:06:32.480 already talked about how you're gonna go about breaking the 0:06:32.520 --> 0:06:35.680 schedule down. We'll get into a couple specific teams here. 0:06:36.080 --> 0:06:40.080 This is just some preliminary looks. Obviously, in your case, 0:06:40.120 --> 0:06:42.200 you're thinking the best time to bet these is going 0:06:42.240 --> 0:06:44.840 to be right before the season starts, when you have 0:06:45.000 --> 0:06:48.159 a good picture of what the market is looking like 0:06:48.400 --> 0:06:50.680 and what these teams are going to look like. You 0:06:50.720 --> 0:06:52.680 know what the preseason injuries are gonna be Like. 0:06:54.080 --> 0:06:56.960 Yeah, yeah, Tom, that's the way I do it. Everyone 0:06:57.040 --> 0:07:00.680 has their own rhyme or reason. I like, if someone 0:07:00.920 --> 0:07:03.080 thinks they have in a vanda, let's take the let's 0:07:03.080 --> 0:07:03.400 just start. 0:07:03.520 --> 0:07:05.000 I know we're gonna bring up the Jets. Why don't 0:07:05.000 --> 0:07:06.839 we we stay there top. 0:07:06.760 --> 0:07:07.919 Yeah, let's get into them. 0:07:08.279 --> 0:07:11.680 Because the Jet win totals five and a half at 0:07:11.680 --> 0:07:16.520 most places with heavy juice on the over, and inevitably 0:07:16.560 --> 0:07:17.400 I think they will. 0:07:17.320 --> 0:07:17.960 Hit a six. 0:07:18.720 --> 0:07:21.880 So, like, there are some teams where if you want 0:07:21.880 --> 0:07:24.760 the over or if you want to basically beat the 0:07:24.800 --> 0:07:27.320 market to the punch and then come back on a 0:07:27.360 --> 0:07:30.160 plus number or a better number or hell of it 0:07:30.240 --> 0:07:31.800 gets six and a half fine an all six and 0:07:31.840 --> 0:07:34.120 a half all seven betting under try to get the 0:07:34.280 --> 0:07:37.360 Jets to land six or seven wins. I don't have 0:07:37.400 --> 0:07:39.280 a problem with that, And there are some other teams, 0:07:39.280 --> 0:07:42.880 like if you didn't bet the Eagles to go over 0:07:42.920 --> 0:07:45.520 to win totally, you're already betting into a market that's 0:07:45.560 --> 0:07:47.280 not as good if you like that over right now, 0:07:47.520 --> 0:07:50.000 that was eight and a half the whole time, nine 0:07:50.040 --> 0:07:52.120 and a half this morning on DraftKings and the Jews 0:07:52.200 --> 0:07:54.520 is on the over, which I actually think is correct. 0:07:54.520 --> 0:07:56.280 I think the Eagles are probably a ten win team 0:07:56.320 --> 0:07:58.720 this year if they were able to get close to 0:07:58.760 --> 0:08:01.800 that last year with with a team that I didn't 0:08:01.800 --> 0:08:04.800 think was any good. But there are plenty of ways 0:08:04.840 --> 0:08:07.720 to bet this time, and I just go my way 0:08:07.760 --> 0:08:10.760 and find your style, find your correct style, and also 0:08:10.840 --> 0:08:13.320 get chop around. That's the biggest thing is everything to 0:08:13.320 --> 0:08:16.000 to shop around, make sure get the best number on things. 0:08:16.000 --> 0:08:17.840 And the best way that you can shop around and 0:08:17.880 --> 0:08:20.800 get that best number, head on over to bettingpros dot com. 0:08:21.160 --> 0:08:22.760 The I see what I did there. 0:08:23.040 --> 0:08:25.440 Yes, you've got you have to have the plug in there. 0:08:25.640 --> 0:08:28.400 Seriously, while prepping this show, the first place I went 0:08:28.640 --> 0:08:31.480 was right to our own website because they have not 0:08:31.680 --> 0:08:34.360 just odds to win Division, super Bowl, all of that 0:08:34.400 --> 0:08:37.200 forever NFL team. They've got the win totals and they've 0:08:37.240 --> 0:08:40.319 got them all broken out. You can see at every shop. 0:08:40.360 --> 0:08:42.200 That's how I know, like you said, the Jets are 0:08:42.200 --> 0:08:44.800 going to get to six. They're already at six at 0:08:44.800 --> 0:08:47.840 bet Rivers right now. I think the market is going 0:08:47.840 --> 0:08:49.600 to go in that direction. You're right, there's still five 0:08:49.640 --> 0:08:53.280 and a half juiced at DraftKings. I see them going 0:08:53.320 --> 0:08:55.720 into the six. But let's get into the Jets. They're 0:08:55.760 --> 0:08:58.200 the first team I have up on my notes. I'll 0:08:58.200 --> 0:09:01.320 tell you looking at the schedule, those first nine games 0:09:01.360 --> 0:09:04.040 are brutal. You start off playing the entire AFC North. 0:09:04.120 --> 0:09:06.800 That's the first four games, and then you have a 0:09:06.800 --> 0:09:08.839 week ten by I think that they're only going to 0:09:08.960 --> 0:09:12.160 have about three wins heading into that buy. I think 0:09:12.160 --> 0:09:15.040 the Steelers are beatable, I think the Browns are beatable, 0:09:15.040 --> 0:09:16.959 and I think the Dolphins are beatable. But you look 0:09:17.000 --> 0:09:21.000 at the rest of that schedule, and it is ugly, Jeff, 0:09:21.040 --> 0:09:22.839 and it doesn't get a whole lot better. On the 0:09:22.880 --> 0:09:27.360 other side, you have Week twelve versus the Bears. That's 0:09:27.400 --> 0:09:30.880 got potential depending on how the Bears start the season 0:09:30.920 --> 0:09:34.040 out a lot of unknowns, their new coaching staff, obviously 0:09:34.080 --> 0:09:35.400 second year quarterback. 0:09:35.040 --> 0:09:35.960 In Justin Fields. 0:09:36.200 --> 0:09:39.440 Then you've got Week fifteen in Detroit versus Detroit, Week 0:09:39.480 --> 0:09:43.440 sixteen versus Jacksonville. That's a big back to back right there, 0:09:43.480 --> 0:09:47.160 and Week seventeen at Seattle. They've got a long week 0:09:47.200 --> 0:09:50.080 there after the Jags game Thursday night. But I don't 0:09:50.080 --> 0:09:53.559 think that they can string three wins together in that 0:09:53.679 --> 0:09:56.800 stretch like that, which tells me that they're probably gonna 0:09:56.800 --> 0:10:00.240 go under that six. I'm kind of like fit hitting 0:10:00.280 --> 0:10:01.120 our own team here. 0:10:03.080 --> 0:10:05.760 I will probably if I can get a five and 0:10:05.800 --> 0:10:08.120 a half that's a little better than minus one forty juice, 0:10:08.120 --> 0:10:12.040 that probably still go over. They're vastly improved from what 0:10:12.080 --> 0:10:13.080 they were a year ago. 0:10:13.520 --> 0:10:15.360 And look they're starting Tom. 0:10:15.400 --> 0:10:18.000 It's been the interminable rebuild at this point, it just 0:10:18.080 --> 0:10:21.000 has been. But they are much better, like they are 0:10:21.080 --> 0:10:22.719 much better than they were a year ago, and they 0:10:23.520 --> 0:10:28.080 look Tom an absurd blown lead at the end against Tampa, 0:10:28.160 --> 0:10:31.760 where if Wilson doesn't do the ridiculous hold the ball 0:10:31.840 --> 0:10:33.959 for no reason do to QB sneak on four to 0:10:34.040 --> 0:10:36.680 two and a half, the Jets probably win that game. 0:10:36.960 --> 0:10:39.559 The opportunities to be Carolina and they had opportunities to 0:10:39.559 --> 0:10:42.640 be to Atlanta. Like, again, I'm mentioning two crappy teams 0:10:42.679 --> 0:10:45.640 in there, but look, I expect. 0:10:45.360 --> 0:10:46.240 Them to be better. 0:10:46.400 --> 0:10:49.079 And five and a half is a very low total, 0:10:49.240 --> 0:10:51.760 Like you're expecting them to be a bottom five team. 0:10:51.840 --> 0:10:54.240 Basically if they go under that, I don't think they're 0:10:54.240 --> 0:10:56.600 a bottom five team. I think they're probably closer to 0:10:56.760 --> 0:11:01.080 being team the bottom ten, bottom twelve. But look tom 0:11:01.120 --> 0:11:03.079 the schedule, and this was the sequencing we knew going 0:11:03.120 --> 0:11:04.960 in the Jets schedule was going to look pretty brutal. 0:11:05.240 --> 0:11:06.959 The sequencing socks for them. 0:11:07.000 --> 0:11:09.000 They played all the AFC North, which may be the 0:11:09.000 --> 0:11:12.440 most competitive division in the NFL. I know the AFC 0:11:12.520 --> 0:11:14.640 West still exists, but the AFC North could be very 0:11:14.679 --> 0:11:19.360 competitive because those teams are all to me closely bunched together, 0:11:19.440 --> 0:11:21.400 where you can have everyone. 0:11:21.080 --> 0:11:23.720 Ending up nine and eight, ten and seven. 0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:26.200 Not as sparkly of records as I think the teams 0:11:26.200 --> 0:11:28.199 out west will be but it will be a very 0:11:28.240 --> 0:11:30.760 competitive division and Jets play all four of those teams 0:11:30.800 --> 0:11:31.280 right away. 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:32.600 They have to go to Lambeau. 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:34.840 I don't think that's as intimidating as it would be 0:11:34.840 --> 0:11:35.440 in the past. 0:11:35.520 --> 0:11:38.079 But you're not going to pick the Jets to win 0:11:38.080 --> 0:11:38.960 a game in green Bay. 0:11:39.040 --> 0:11:42.120 I mean, even with green Bay coming off the London game. 0:11:42.679 --> 0:11:44.719 But Tom, I think you those first nine because the 0:11:44.960 --> 0:11:49.040 week ten by week Yeah, they can beat Baltimore. I'm 0:11:49.040 --> 0:11:50.920 not saying they will be I would not bet that 0:11:51.080 --> 0:11:54.120 at all, but they can beat Baltimore. They can beat 0:11:54.120 --> 0:11:56.720 any of those AFC North teams. They can beat Miami. 0:11:56.760 --> 0:11:58.960 They're not winning at green Bay. Theer not winning at Denver. 0:11:58.960 --> 0:12:02.400 They always play horrible Denver, regardless of what the Broncos are. 0:12:02.640 --> 0:12:04.640 I mean, hell, even Brett Rippon beat them a few 0:12:04.720 --> 0:12:09.280 years ago. But to me, if the Jets are gonna 0:12:09.320 --> 0:12:12.959 go over, you gotta get the divisional home games. 0:12:12.960 --> 0:12:15.640 The Jets have been brutal in the division for years now. 0:12:16.360 --> 0:12:18.560 And if you beat Miami and New England at home, 0:12:19.040 --> 0:12:19.800 with the way. 0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:21.199 That the rest of your schedule goes out, and the 0:12:21.280 --> 0:12:24.440 Jets do catch a break that Jacksonville is a home game, 0:12:24.520 --> 0:12:25.880 a game that if it was on the road, they 0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:29.079 might lose. If at home on a cold December night, 0:12:29.160 --> 0:12:32.480 maybe in front of a thirty five thousand people met life, 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:35.320 I actually like the jets chances there. 0:12:36.160 --> 0:12:38.800 Getting Detroit at home is a big deal, and they. 0:12:38.679 --> 0:12:40.960 If you go to ford Field this year, I actually 0:12:40.960 --> 0:12:42.679 think the Jets probably would lose that game on the 0:12:42.760 --> 0:12:45.679 road this year, but at home, I actually like them 0:12:45.679 --> 0:12:47.520 at home in Chicago, I think the Bears are gonna 0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:48.040 be terrible. 0:12:48.080 --> 0:12:49.360 I think the Bear would be one of. 0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:51.199 The three worst teams in the league, so you got 0:12:51.200 --> 0:12:52.760 to get all those games where the Jets are either 0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:56.560 comparable or better than those teams. I still like this 0:12:56.600 --> 0:12:58.200 over time. I think they're going to find a way 0:12:58.240 --> 0:13:00.679 to scratch out seven. I think they'll be competitive. I 0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:03.200 think we'll actually look the part of a seven and 0:13:03.280 --> 0:13:05.240 ten team, which is good enough to get us over 0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:07.360 five and a half six. So I'll have to go 0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:09.839 through it in full, but I think they're gonna be 0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:11.719 good enough. Due Leies get to that bye week at 0:13:11.720 --> 0:13:13.960 three and six, and if you get to that bye 0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:17.560 week at three and six, you're probably going over because 0:13:17.600 --> 0:13:19.920 three and five on the three and five on the 0:13:20.040 --> 0:13:23.719 back end with that week's schedule actually to me seem like. 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:24.959 A little bit of a disappointment. 0:13:25.640 --> 0:13:27.480 I agree, And you know, the last four weeks of 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:29.880 the season are always the Jets super Bowl. It's meaninglessly 0:13:30.080 --> 0:13:33.920 this playoff time to start trying. Look, I've got you 0:13:33.960 --> 0:13:36.320 all over my shoulder here. You know that I want 0:13:36.360 --> 0:13:38.439 to see this. If this team wins seven or eight games, 0:13:38.480 --> 0:13:41.760 I as a fan will be thrilled because it will 0:13:41.760 --> 0:13:44.320 mean that we're trending in the right direction. And Zach 0:13:44.360 --> 0:13:46.760 Wilson might actually look the part. But we could do 0:13:46.800 --> 0:13:49.120 an entire hour talking just about the Jets. 0:13:49.160 --> 0:13:49.319 Here. 0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:52.160 Let's move on and shift from one of the worst 0:13:52.160 --> 0:13:54.800 teams in the league to a team that everybody always 0:13:54.800 --> 0:13:57.199 has is one of the best, and that is Kansas City. 0:13:57.240 --> 0:13:59.840 Their total is at ten and a half right now. 0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:06.200 Part of me likes the over, but I am honestly 0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:09.760 with you, this schedule is pretty brutal. I think the 0:14:09.800 --> 0:14:11.920 forty nine ers are bad. I think that it's pretty 0:14:12.000 --> 0:14:14.200 nice that they get Arizona without Hopkins to start the 0:14:14.240 --> 0:14:16.439 season and you get to play the Rams and Bills 0:14:16.480 --> 0:14:20.480 at home, which is big. But oh, there are a 0:14:20.520 --> 0:14:22.360 lot of good teams on this schedule, and I think 0:14:22.400 --> 0:14:24.120 this is a Chiefs team that is going to take 0:14:24.160 --> 0:14:26.840 a step back. I'd be inclined to take them under 0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:28.800 that win total. I think that they're going to have 0:14:28.840 --> 0:14:29.800 a very hard. 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:30.560 Time without Tyreek Hill. 0:14:31.320 --> 0:14:33.600 I disagree with you on the Niners. 0:14:33.600 --> 0:14:35.560 I actually think the Niners will be fine even with 0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:39.840 that confusing quarterback situation, unless of Lance, Unless of Lance 0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:43.080 is the guy in Lance just totally sucks, which could happen. 0:14:44.480 --> 0:14:46.880 We'll talk about the Niners in a moment here a 0:14:46.880 --> 0:14:47.280 little bit. 0:14:47.480 --> 0:14:49.840 But Tom, the Chiefs are the first team in the 0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:51.720 league history to have the first eight games of the 0:14:51.760 --> 0:14:55.320 season against teams that finished over five hundred the following year. Yeah, 0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:57.920 our previous year, I should say, first team in the 0:14:57.960 --> 0:15:00.960 history of the league to do that. And look top 0:15:01.400 --> 0:15:06.120 this is even even with like you look at this schedule. 0:15:06.400 --> 0:15:12.000 They'll beat Jacksonville, they'll beat Houston, they'll beat Seattle. Other 0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:15.000 than that, this schedule, you could make an argument that 0:15:15.040 --> 0:15:17.560 they could win or lose every game. Now, it's odd 0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:20.000 to say that again about a Patrick Mahomes team, And 0:15:20.000 --> 0:15:22.360 of course, the Chiefs are not gonna go three and fourteen, Like, 0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:26.200 that's not gonna happen. Could you imagine even too good 0:15:26.280 --> 0:15:27.960 Andy Reid is too good of a coach to allow 0:15:28.000 --> 0:15:32.200 that to happen. And they will be favored, Tom realistically, 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:35.280 even with that insane stretch to begin the season. My 0:15:35.480 --> 0:15:38.120 guess is that they will be favored in more than 0:15:38.120 --> 0:15:40.800 half of those eight games against the teams that finished. 0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:43.840 Over five hundred. They'll be favored probably in five or 0:15:43.920 --> 0:15:46.160 six of those games. They'll be a dog. 0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:49.080 At Tampa, and depending on what the Buffalo Bills and 0:15:49.160 --> 0:15:51.640 forty nine ers look like at the times they play 0:15:51.680 --> 0:15:54.600 those teams, they will probably either be a slight home 0:15:54.640 --> 0:15:57.920 dog to Buffalo or a slight home favorite against Buffalo. 0:15:58.240 --> 0:16:00.600 Same deal in San Francisco. Of the nine are good, 0:16:01.120 --> 0:16:03.880 so Tom, it's just hard to go over ten and 0:16:03.920 --> 0:16:05.960 a half. You're asking a team to win eleven games 0:16:05.960 --> 0:16:08.520 in the most competitive division in the league, in a 0:16:08.560 --> 0:16:11.000 division that I think all four teams have a realistic 0:16:11.000 --> 0:16:15.240 shot to make the playoffs, and you're gonna be fighting 0:16:15.320 --> 0:16:18.360 at the beginning of the year like we saw last 0:16:18.440 --> 0:16:20.320 year looked ugly at the beginning of the year for 0:16:20.360 --> 0:16:21.640 them with Tyreek Hill there. 0:16:22.040 --> 0:16:24.360 Now you haven't you don't have your deep threat anymore. 0:16:25.360 --> 0:16:27.320 Teams are going to try to take Travis Kelcey out 0:16:27.360 --> 0:16:30.880 of the game as much as humanly possible, And for me, 0:16:31.200 --> 0:16:33.320 I thought they got lucky getting Arizona week one. I 0:16:33.320 --> 0:16:36.160 don't think the Cardinals are particularly good even if they 0:16:36.200 --> 0:16:40.720 had Hoppins and the road game in Week three, Indianapolis 0:16:40.760 --> 0:16:42.640 like it's a winnable game, even though it's a tough 0:16:42.720 --> 0:16:46.920 road game, it's a winnable road game. And I think there. 0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:50.040 I think ten and a half's probably about right. I 0:16:50.040 --> 0:16:52.160 would only lean to the under because it's hard to 0:16:52.160 --> 0:16:54.000 go over ten and a half with that type of schedule, 0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:56.600 but it will be no bet for me. I like 0:16:56.640 --> 0:17:00.400 the Chargers to win that division. I really do. And 0:17:00.480 --> 0:17:03.320 if the Chargers win Week two in that first Amazon game, 0:17:03.960 --> 0:17:06.320 then I think it's a whole different mix. But again, 0:17:06.960 --> 0:17:09.640 Chargers had the freaking division on the rocket last year. 0:17:09.960 --> 0:17:12.639 Your managed to blow that game and somehow missed the playoffs. 0:17:13.040 --> 0:17:16.480 So I again, it's still Kansas City's. 0:17:16.240 --> 0:17:17.000 Division to lose. 0:17:17.520 --> 0:17:20.119 And look, when you have all these teams that are 0:17:20.160 --> 0:17:21.680 really good and they beat the crap out of each other, 0:17:21.680 --> 0:17:24.879 who knows, maybe we get something weird into the AGC 0:17:25.000 --> 0:17:26.879 West the whole division ends at ten and seven or 0:17:26.920 --> 0:17:27.680 something like that. 0:17:28.240 --> 0:17:29.760 I entirely possible. 0:17:29.800 --> 0:17:31.560 I think that this is going to be an absolutely 0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:35.960 wild ride in the division, which everybody thinks, but I 0:17:36.080 --> 0:17:37.240