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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Thomas Yola and joining me today to talk about

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Speaker 1: the NFL schedule release. We're gonna be discussing some win

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Speaker 1: totals here now that we have the full picture.

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Speaker 2: Jeff Parls, Jeff, how are you doing good?

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Speaker 3: Tom.

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Speaker 4: It's a pleasure is always to be with you, buddy.

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Speaker 2: It's a pleasure to have you back on.

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Speaker 1: And like I said, in the NFL schedule it is out.

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Speaker 1: We know every game now. We know the Lions will

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Speaker 1: not be on primetime, we know that the Jets will

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Speaker 1: have an amazing Thursday night showdown with the Jaguars, and

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Speaker 1: we know there are a couple other games nobody cares about,

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Speaker 1: like the Buccaneers versus the Bills and the Chiefs playing

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Speaker 1: you know the game's no one's gonna want to watch

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Speaker 1: the low action games.

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Speaker 4: Hey man.

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Speaker 3: We've known the opponents since the season ended. But it's

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Speaker 3: good to know the sequence now, Tom, And I know

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Speaker 3: we'll get into this, but I know people scoff at

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Speaker 3: the schedule Liso. It's yeah, so it's ridiculous, but you

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Speaker 3: know what perspective, you kind of actually need to know

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Speaker 3: the sequence of events here because it does impact the

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Speaker 3: way at least I bet season win totals if I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna bet them, and quite frankly bending some playoff bets

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Speaker 3: as well for some teams.

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Speaker 1: I completely agree you can know the opponents. But the

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Speaker 1: thing that most betters need to understand when you're gonna

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Speaker 1: bet season win totals is it's not just looking at

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Speaker 1: the team's number and going that's an eleven win team.

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Speaker 1: That's a twelve win team. They can clear nine and

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Speaker 1: a half wins easy. It is going through the schedule,

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Speaker 1: breaking it down, saying okay, well this is where their

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Speaker 1: bye week is. This is a really rough road stretch

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Speaker 1: right here, this is a London game. Things like that

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Speaker 1: come into play. You have to go through the schedule.

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Speaker 1: In the way that we'd like to properly break it

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Speaker 1: down is literally going game by game and saying this

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Speaker 1: is a win, this is a loss. I think they

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Speaker 1: win this game, and picking it out and finding out

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Speaker 1: how you arrive at your number through that. The way

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Speaker 1: I like to set it up is literally going through

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Speaker 1: the schedule. Before I even look at a team's number,

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Speaker 1: I want to know what my number for that team is,

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Speaker 1: and then compare it to the book. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Look, I usually go through everything, and usually if I

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Speaker 3: end up with a team, usually the number that I

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Speaker 3: look for Tom is.

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Speaker 4: One and a half win difference.

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Speaker 3: If there is a one and a half win difference

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Speaker 3: either way, then I look to bet it. If it's

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Speaker 3: more than one and a half from what the market

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Speaker 3: says to what I go through this.

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Speaker 4: I'll probably do this three.

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Speaker 3: Times before the season starts and go off my final

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Speaker 3: one because the final one is the closest one to

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Speaker 3: the season, and I know those win totals change, but

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Speaker 3: injuries happen, and the last thing I want is to

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Speaker 3: have a horrible.

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Speaker 4: Position on a team.

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Speaker 3: Or let's say, like again, I'm not betting this, but

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Speaker 3: let's say hypothetically, you want the Chiefs over this year,

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Speaker 3: and we'll get to them in a second.

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Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes gets hurt.

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Speaker 3: But the way that schedule is the Chiefs may win

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Speaker 3: five games, but if Mahomes is there, Homes is probably

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Speaker 3: worth four or five wins.

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Speaker 4: And I know the chief.

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Speaker 3: Schedules is horrendous in the way of the difficulty there, Tom,

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Speaker 3: So I would.

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Speaker 4: Be looking up.

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Speaker 3: I would just be going through the whole thing trying

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Speaker 3: to find at least a win and a half difference

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Speaker 3: from what you think to the book.

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Speaker 4: If you get two to two and a half, great

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Speaker 4: go ahead.

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Speaker 3: I usually the biggest advantage I can remember was the

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Speaker 3: Lions back in twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 4: They were six and a half plus money under. I

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Speaker 4: had them winning.

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Speaker 3: Three, and that was like a quadruple bet for me

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Speaker 3: and the Detroit Lions. In twenty nineteen, Tom.

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Speaker 4: We're not good. No, we're not good.

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Speaker 3: They were three twelve and one. So again I didn't

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Speaker 3: have them with a tie, but.

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Speaker 4: It was an easy under.

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Speaker 3: It was as easy of an under as you're gonna

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Speaker 3: have all the year. So I think that's just what

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Speaker 3: you do. You go through the whole thing, you go

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Speaker 3: through all the games. If you're a first instinct guy,

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Speaker 3: and go with that, fine whatever. I usually i'll do one.

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Speaker 3: I'll do one in about a week. I'm gonna let

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Speaker 3: the dust settle here and go from there. Like a week.

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Speaker 4: From when we're recording this, I'll have my first version of.

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Speaker 3: This and then by I want to say, the end

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Speaker 3: of the second week in the preseason, because a lot

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Speaker 3: of the teams won't play their guys in that third

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Speaker 3: preseason game.

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Speaker 4: Now I'll be looking to do the the second.

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Speaker 3: And final one, and then if I inevitably get bored

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Speaker 3: in the summer when it's only baseball, I'll probably throw

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Speaker 3: one of those other ones and see how it changes

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Speaker 3: through the off season.

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Speaker 4: But I very rarely change more than like a win

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Speaker 4: or two across the board.

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Speaker 3: If by accidentally have like a team going like, oh

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Speaker 3: in seventeen, like no team's going oh in seventeen in

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Speaker 3: this age in the NFL, Like it's not gonna happen.

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Speaker 3: No one's probably going seventeen to no either for that regard.

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Speaker 3: So like let's say hypothetically ahead and I don't have

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Speaker 3: them with this just on the early look at it,

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Speaker 3: Like hypothetically, let's say I had the Lions going oh

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Speaker 3: in seventeen, like I would go back and change two

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Speaker 3: games to make sure you get them two wins like

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Speaker 3: no teams if the Texans last year were able to

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Speaker 3: win multiple games, and teams are not, teams are not

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Speaker 3: going in this new age with the extra game and

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Speaker 3: teams like not officially taking weeks off.

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Speaker 4: But we saw it last year. We saw as soon

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Speaker 4: as Mike.

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Speaker 3: White beat the Bengals on Halloween, everything went nuts, like

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Speaker 3: we're none of upset. So you're gonna say, I think

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Speaker 3: that's your more common on common day NFL. At this point,

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Speaker 3: you're gonna have teams that with the extra game, like out,

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Speaker 3: this team sucks, we don't either a game.

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Speaker 4: Why don't we just take it a little bit easier.

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Speaker 4: We'll still win.

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Speaker 3: And then all of a sudden, the Texans are beating

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Speaker 3: the Chargers and the Titans on the road that Mike

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Speaker 3: White's thrown for four hundred yards against a team that

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Speaker 3: inevitably makes the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 4: Like, uh, like you think gets some wild stuff this year, Tom.

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Speaker 3: So it's a little bit harder day in the past,

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Speaker 3: But look, it's the NFL.

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Speaker 4: Man.

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Speaker 3: If you have a win and a half to win

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Speaker 3: advantage based off of what you think, and again it's

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Speaker 3: hard to find that you probably go you still go

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Speaker 3: with it, even with the day and age of a

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Speaker 3: little bit more a little more wonky results once you

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Speaker 3: hit mid seas.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the NFL today is it is just the parody

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Speaker 1: is so strong. Even with Yes, there's obviously a huge

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Speaker 1: gap between the Jaguars and the Chiefs. Of course, any

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Speaker 1: team can still go out on any week and beat

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Speaker 1: any other team. It truly is the any given Sunday sport.

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Speaker 1: These are all professionals. The variance is so great that

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Speaker 1: being said, win totals can be a good way to

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Speaker 1: make a nice little future investment off that. And we've

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Speaker 1: already talked about how you're gonna go about breaking the

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Speaker 1: schedule down. We'll get into a couple specific teams here.

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Speaker 1: This is just some preliminary looks. Obviously, in your case,

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Speaker 1: you're thinking the best time to bet these is going

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Speaker 1: to be right before the season starts, when you have

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Speaker 1: a good picture of what the market is looking like

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Speaker 1: and what these teams are going to look like. You

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Speaker 1: know what the preseason injuries are gonna be Like.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, Tom, that's the way I do it. Everyone

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Speaker 3: has their own rhyme or reason. I like, if someone

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Speaker 3: thinks they have in a vanda, let's take the let's

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Speaker 3: just start.

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Speaker 4: I know we're gonna bring up the Jets. Why don't

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Speaker 4: we we stay there top.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, let's get into them.

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Speaker 3: Because the Jet win totals five and a half at

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Speaker 3: most places with heavy juice on the over, and inevitably

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Speaker 3: I think they will.

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Speaker 4: Hit a six.

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Speaker 3: So, like, there are some teams where if you want

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Speaker 3: the over or if you want to basically beat the

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Speaker 3: market to the punch and then come back on a

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Speaker 3: plus number or a better number or hell of it

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Speaker 3: gets six and a half fine an all six and

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Speaker 3: a half all seven betting under try to get the

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Speaker 3: Jets to land six or seven wins. I don't have

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Speaker 3: a problem with that, And there are some other teams,

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Speaker 3: like if you didn't bet the Eagles to go over

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Speaker 3: to win totally, you're already betting into a market that's

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Speaker 3: not as good if you like that over right now,

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Speaker 3: that was eight and a half the whole time, nine

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Speaker 3: and a half this morning on DraftKings and the Jews

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Speaker 3: is on the over, which I actually think is correct.

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Speaker 3: I think the Eagles are probably a ten win team

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Speaker 3: this year if they were able to get close to

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Speaker 3: that last year with with a team that I didn't

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Speaker 3: think was any good. But there are plenty of ways

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Speaker 3: to bet this time, and I just go my way

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Speaker 3: and find your style, find your correct style, and also

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Speaker 3: get chop around. That's the biggest thing is everything to

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Speaker 3: to shop around, make sure get the best number on things.

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Speaker 1: And the best way that you can shop around and

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Speaker 1: get that best number, head on over to bettingpros dot com.

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Speaker 4: The I see what I did there.

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Speaker 2: Yes, you've got you have to have the plug in there.

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Speaker 1: Seriously, while prepping this show, the first place I went

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Speaker 1: was right to our own website because they have not

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Speaker 1: just odds to win Division, super Bowl, all of that

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Speaker 1: forever NFL team. They've got the win totals and they've

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Speaker 1: got them all broken out. You can see at every shop.

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Speaker 1: That's how I know, like you said, the Jets are

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Speaker 1: going to get to six. They're already at six at

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Speaker 1: bet Rivers right now. I think the market is going

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Speaker 1: to go in that direction. You're right, there's still five

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Speaker 1: and a half juiced at DraftKings. I see them going

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Speaker 1: into the six. But let's get into the Jets. They're

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Speaker 1: the first team I have up on my notes. I'll

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Speaker 1: tell you looking at the schedule, those first nine games

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Speaker 1: are brutal. You start off playing the entire AFC North.

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Speaker 1: That's the first four games, and then you have a

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Speaker 1: week ten by I think that they're only going to

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Speaker 1: have about three wins heading into that buy. I think

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Speaker 1: the Steelers are beatable, I think the Browns are beatable,

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Speaker 1: and I think the Dolphins are beatable. But you look

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Speaker 1: at the rest of that schedule, and it is ugly, Jeff,

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Speaker 1: and it doesn't get a whole lot better. On the

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Speaker 1: other side, you have Week twelve versus the Bears. That's

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Speaker 1: got potential depending on how the Bears start the season

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Speaker 1: out a lot of unknowns, their new coaching staff, obviously

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Speaker 1: second year quarterback.

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Speaker 2: In Justin Fields.

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Speaker 1: Then you've got Week fifteen in Detroit versus Detroit, Week

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Speaker 1: sixteen versus Jacksonville. That's a big back to back right there,

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Speaker 1: and Week seventeen at Seattle. They've got a long week

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Speaker 1: there after the Jags game Thursday night. But I don't

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Speaker 1: think that they can string three wins together in that

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Speaker 1: stretch like that, which tells me that they're probably gonna

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Speaker 1: go under that six. I'm kind of like fit hitting

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Speaker 1: our own team here.

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Speaker 3: I will probably if I can get a five and

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Speaker 3: a half that's a little better than minus one forty juice,

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Speaker 3: that probably still go over. They're vastly improved from what

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Speaker 3: they were a year ago.

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Speaker 4: And look they're starting Tom.

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Speaker 3: It's been the interminable rebuild at this point, it just

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Speaker 3: has been. But they are much better, like they are

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Speaker 3: much better than they were a year ago, and they

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Speaker 3: look Tom an absurd blown lead at the end against Tampa,

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Speaker 3: where if Wilson doesn't do the ridiculous hold the ball

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Speaker 3: for no reason do to QB sneak on four to

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Speaker 3: two and a half, the Jets probably win that game.

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Speaker 3: The opportunities to be Carolina and they had opportunities to

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Speaker 3: be to Atlanta. Like, again, I'm mentioning two crappy teams

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Speaker 3: in there, but look, I expect.

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Speaker 4: Them to be better.

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Speaker 3: And five and a half is a very low total,

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Speaker 3: Like you're expecting them to be a bottom five team.

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Speaker 3: Basically if they go under that, I don't think they're

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Speaker 3: a bottom five team. I think they're probably closer to

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Speaker 3: being team the bottom ten, bottom twelve. But look tom

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Speaker 3: the schedule, and this was the sequencing we knew going

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Speaker 3: in the Jets schedule was going to look pretty brutal.

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Speaker 4: The sequencing socks for them.

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Speaker 3: They played all the AFC North, which may be the

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Speaker 3: most competitive division in the NFL. I know the AFC

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Speaker 3: West still exists, but the AFC North could be very

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Speaker 3: competitive because those teams are all to me closely bunched together,

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Speaker 3: where you can have everyone.

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Speaker 4: Ending up nine and eight, ten and seven.

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Speaker 3: Not as sparkly of records as I think the teams

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Speaker 3: out west will be but it will be a very

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Speaker 3: competitive division and Jets play all four of those teams

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Speaker 3: right away.

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Speaker 4: They have to go to Lambeau.

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Speaker 3: I don't think that's as intimidating as it would be

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Speaker 3: in the past.

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Speaker 4: But you're not going to pick the Jets to win

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Speaker 4: a game in green Bay.

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Speaker 3: I mean, even with green Bay coming off the London game.

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Speaker 3: But Tom, I think you those first nine because the

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Speaker 3: week ten by week Yeah, they can beat Baltimore. I'm

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Speaker 3: not saying they will be I would not bet that

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Speaker 3: at all, but they can beat Baltimore. They can beat

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Speaker 3: any of those AFC North teams. They can beat Miami.

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Speaker 3: They're not winning at green Bay. Theer not winning at Denver.

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Speaker 3: They always play horrible Denver, regardless of what the Broncos are.

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Speaker 3: I mean, hell, even Brett Rippon beat them a few

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Speaker 3: years ago. But to me, if the Jets are gonna

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Speaker 3: go over, you gotta get the divisional home games.

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Speaker 4: The Jets have been brutal in the division for years now.

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Speaker 4: And if you beat Miami and New England at home,

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Speaker 4: with the way.

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Speaker 3: That the rest of your schedule goes out, and the

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Speaker 3: Jets do catch a break that Jacksonville is a home game,

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Speaker 3: a game that if it was on the road, they

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Speaker 3: might lose. If at home on a cold December night,

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Speaker 3: maybe in front of a thirty five thousand people met life,

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Speaker 3: I actually like the jets chances there.

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Speaker 4: Getting Detroit at home is a big deal, and they.

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Speaker 3: If you go to ford Field this year, I actually

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Speaker 3: think the Jets probably would lose that game on the

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Speaker 3: road this year, but at home, I actually like them

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Speaker 3: at home in Chicago, I think the Bears are gonna

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Speaker 3: be terrible.

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Speaker 4: I think the Bear would be one of.

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Speaker 3: The three worst teams in the league, so you got

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Speaker 3: to get all those games where the Jets are either

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Speaker 3: comparable or better than those teams. I still like this

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Speaker 3: over time. I think they're going to find a way

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Speaker 3: to scratch out seven. I think they'll be competitive. I

300
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Speaker 3: think we'll actually look the part of a seven and

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Speaker 3: ten team, which is good enough to get us over

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Speaker 3: five and a half six. So I'll have to go

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Speaker 3: through it in full, but I think they're gonna be

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Speaker 3: good enough. Due Leies get to that bye week at

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Speaker 3: three and six, and if you get to that bye

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Speaker 3: week at three and six, you're probably going over because

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Speaker 3: three and five on the three and five on the

308
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Speaker 3: back end with that week's schedule actually to me seem like.

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Speaker 4: A little bit of a disappointment.

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Speaker 1: I agree, And you know, the last four weeks of

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Speaker 1: the season are always the Jets super Bowl. It's meaninglessly

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Speaker 1: this playoff time to start trying. Look, I've got you

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Speaker 1: all over my shoulder here. You know that I want

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Speaker 1: to see this. If this team wins seven or eight games,

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Speaker 1: I as a fan will be thrilled because it will

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Speaker 1: mean that we're trending in the right direction. And Zach

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Speaker 1: Wilson might actually look the part. But we could do

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Speaker 1: an entire hour talking just about the Jets.

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Speaker 4: Here.

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Speaker 1: Let's move on and shift from one of the worst

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Speaker 1: teams in the league to a team that everybody always

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Speaker 1: has is one of the best, and that is Kansas City.

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Speaker 1: Their total is at ten and a half right now.

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Speaker 1: Part of me likes the over, but I am honestly

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Speaker 1: with you, this schedule is pretty brutal. I think the

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Speaker 1: forty nine ers are bad. I think that it's pretty

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Speaker 1: nice that they get Arizona without Hopkins to start the

328
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Speaker 1: season and you get to play the Rams and Bills

329
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Speaker 1: at home, which is big. But oh, there are a

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Speaker 1: lot of good teams on this schedule, and I think

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Speaker 1: this is a Chiefs team that is going to take

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Speaker 1: a step back. I'd be inclined to take them under

333
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Speaker 1: that win total. I think that they're going to have

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Speaker 1: a very hard.

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Speaker 2: Time without Tyreek Hill.

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Speaker 4: I disagree with you on the Niners.

337
00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:35,560
Speaker 3: I actually think the Niners will be fine even with

338
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Speaker 3: that confusing quarterback situation, unless of Lance, Unless of Lance

339
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Speaker 3: is the guy in Lance just totally sucks, which could happen.

340
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Speaker 2: We'll talk about the Niners in a moment here a

341
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Speaker 2: little bit.

342
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Speaker 3: But Tom, the Chiefs are the first team in the

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Speaker 3: league history to have the first eight games of the

344
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Speaker 3: season against teams that finished over five hundred the following year. Yeah,

345
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Speaker 3: our previous year, I should say, first team in the

346
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Speaker 3: history of the league to do that. And look top

347
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Speaker 3: this is even even with like you look at this schedule.

348
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Speaker 3: They'll beat Jacksonville, they'll beat Houston, they'll beat Seattle. Other

349
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Speaker 3: than that, this schedule, you could make an argument that

350
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Speaker 3: they could win or lose every game. Now, it's odd

351
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Speaker 3: to say that again about a Patrick Mahomes team, And

352
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Speaker 3: of course, the Chiefs are not gonna go three and fourteen, Like,

353
00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:26,200
Speaker 3: that's not gonna happen. Could you imagine even too good

354
00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:27,960
Speaker 3: Andy Reid is too good of a coach to allow

355
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Speaker 3: that to happen. And they will be favored, Tom realistically,

356
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Speaker 3: even with that insane stretch to begin the season. My

357
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Speaker 3: guess is that they will be favored in more than

358
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Speaker 3: half of those eight games against the teams that finished.

359
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Speaker 4: Over five hundred. They'll be favored probably in five or

360
00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:46,160
Speaker 4: six of those games. They'll be a dog.

361
00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:49,080
Speaker 3: At Tampa, and depending on what the Buffalo Bills and

362
00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:51,640
Speaker 3: forty nine ers look like at the times they play

363
00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:54,600
Speaker 3: those teams, they will probably either be a slight home

364
00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:57,920
Speaker 3: dog to Buffalo or a slight home favorite against Buffalo.

365
00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:00,600
Speaker 3: Same deal in San Francisco. Of the nine are good,

366
00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:03,880
Speaker 3: so Tom, it's just hard to go over ten and

367
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Speaker 3: a half. You're asking a team to win eleven games

368
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Speaker 3: in the most competitive division in the league, in a

369
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Speaker 3: division that I think all four teams have a realistic

370
00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:15,240
Speaker 3: shot to make the playoffs, and you're gonna be fighting

371
00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:18,360
Speaker 3: at the beginning of the year like we saw last

372
00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:20,320
Speaker 3: year looked ugly at the beginning of the year for

373
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Speaker 3: them with Tyreek Hill there.

374
00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:24,360
Speaker 4: Now you haven't you don't have your deep threat anymore.

375
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Speaker 3: Teams are going to try to take Travis Kelcey out

376
00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:30,880
Speaker 3: of the game as much as humanly possible, And for me,

377
00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:33,320
Speaker 3: I thought they got lucky getting Arizona week one. I

378
00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:36,160
Speaker 3: don't think the Cardinals are particularly good even if they

379
00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:40,720
Speaker 3: had Hoppins and the road game in Week three, Indianapolis

380
00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:42,640
Speaker 3: like it's a winnable game, even though it's a tough

381
00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:46,920
Speaker 3: road game, it's a winnable road game. And I think there.

382
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Speaker 3: I think ten and a half's probably about right. I

383
00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:52,160
Speaker 3: would only lean to the under because it's hard to

384
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Speaker 3: go over ten and a half with that type of schedule,

385
00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:56,600
Speaker 3: but it will be no bet for me. I like

386
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Speaker 3: the Chargers to win that division. I really do. And

387
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Speaker 3: if the Chargers win Week two in that first Amazon game,

388
00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:06,320
Speaker 3: then I think it's a whole different mix. But again,

389
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Speaker 3: Chargers had the freaking division on the rocket last year.

390
00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:12,639
Speaker 3: Your managed to blow that game and somehow missed the playoffs.

391
00:17:13,040 --> 00:17:16,480
Speaker 3: So I again, it's still Kansas City's.

392
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Speaker 4: Division to lose.

393
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Speaker 3: And look, when you have all these teams that are

394
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Speaker 3: really good and they beat the crap out of each other,

395
00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:24,879
Speaker 3: who knows, maybe we get something weird into the AGC

396
00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:26,879
Speaker 3: West the whole division ends at ten and seven or

397
00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:27,680
Speaker 3: something like that.

398
00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:29,760
Speaker 2: I entirely possible.

399
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Speaker 1: I think that this is going to be an absolutely

400
00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:35,960
Speaker 1: wild ride in the division, which everybody thinks, but I

401
00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:37,240
Speaker 1: just I have a hard time.

402
00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:39,600
Speaker 2: I have a hard time taking the over. I'm with you.

403
00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:42,159
Speaker 1: The good news is, I think the public is going

404
00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:44,840
Speaker 1: to take the over. I think if we wait long enough,

405
00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:47,760
Speaker 1: we can see this to get up to eleven, maybe

406
00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:50,840
Speaker 1: eleven and a half if we really believe, and then

407
00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:53,560
Speaker 1: you could take an under because let's face it, Travis

408
00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:57,040
Speaker 1: Kelsey's not getting any younger. Juju Smith Schuster is there now,

409
00:17:57,440 --> 00:18:01,200
Speaker 1: but that's still not He and Marquez the Scantling are

410
00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:04,080
Speaker 1: not replacements for Tyreek Hill. This offense is going to

411
00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:06,760
Speaker 1: have a harder time than it's used to. I think

412
00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:10,320
Speaker 1: things could be very surprising for us on the Chiefs front.

413
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Speaker 2: I'm with you.

414
00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:13,000
Speaker 1: If I can get them a little higher, I'd like

415
00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:16,160
Speaker 1: to take me under there. Guys, I want to talk

416
00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:18,600
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417
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443
00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:32,359
Speaker 1: twenty seven and a half points. Terms and conditions apply.

444
00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:35,800
Speaker 1: See Sleeper's Terms of use for details. Now let's shift

445
00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:39,280
Speaker 1: over to the forty nine ers, because their total is

446
00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:42,120
Speaker 1: at ten games on DraftKings minus one ten each way.

447
00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:44,920
Speaker 1: Right now, I'm going under all the way. I see

448
00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:47,800
Speaker 1: this team ceiling at eight waves. I think they got

449
00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:50,400
Speaker 1: very lucky last year to get as far as they did.

450
00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:53,480
Speaker 1: They have no answer at QB. Jimmy g is not good.

451
00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:57,200
Speaker 1: He is trash. They don't want him. Problem is nobody

452
00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:59,680
Speaker 1: else wants him and they want to turn to Trey

453
00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:01,400
Speaker 1: Land at some point, except for the fact that Kyle

454
00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:04,760
Speaker 1: Shanahan probably doesn't want to. They have an easy early

455
00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:07,359
Speaker 1: road schedule. Yeah, the Bears, the Panthers, and the Falcons

456
00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:10,160
Speaker 1: are all very winnable road games. But the home schedule

457
00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:14,840
Speaker 1: Miami and Washington winnable. But Chiefs, Bucks and Chargers are

458
00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:18,239
Speaker 1: tough home opponents, throwing a QB controversy, and hey, a

459
00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:21,879
Speaker 1: tough New Year's Day road game in Vegas again. I

460
00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:23,720
Speaker 1: don't see this team getting more than eight wins on

461
00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:24,320
Speaker 1: the schedule.

462
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:25,399
Speaker 4: It's funny.

463
00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:27,520
Speaker 3: I go through it quickly, and I think I see ten.

464
00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:30,359
Speaker 3: I think the numbers right. I think the numbers spot on,

465
00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:33,840
Speaker 3: and it really the Niners are going to be the

466
00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:36,840
Speaker 3: hardest team the handicap the going into the season for sure,

467
00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 3: because even though I know you don't like Jimmy Garoppolo.

468
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:44,640
Speaker 3: I know people don't like Jimmy Garoppolo, But Jimmy, you're

469
00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:47,640
Speaker 3: going to win games with him in the regular season though,

470
00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:50,359
Speaker 3: if he's healthy. That's always been what he's been with

471
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:55,160
Speaker 3: Shanahan in San Francisco. When Garoppolo has been healthy, they've won. Now,

472
00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:58,360
Speaker 3: has it looked pretty No? Not sometimes it has. Most

473
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:00,840
Speaker 3: of the time it has it, But he wins games

474
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:04,200
Speaker 3: when Kyle Shannan is his head coach. Now, the big

475
00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:06,359
Speaker 3: question is there's a reason that Garoppolo is still on

476
00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:09,359
Speaker 3: his roster, and I think it's more than oh, they

477
00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:11,520
Speaker 3: haven't gotten the proper offer that they wanted for him.

478
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,000
Speaker 3: I don't think they buy Trey Lance still. I don't

479
00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:17,159
Speaker 3: think they think he's ready. And if it ends up

480
00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:20,639
Speaker 3: being Trey Lance before this team, I can't bet this

481
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:24,440
Speaker 3: at all period. I lean under if it's Lance because

482
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:26,800
Speaker 3: he again, we saw him twice last year they ran

483
00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:30,320
Speaker 3: the freaking air force wing tee against Arizona the first

484
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:32,560
Speaker 3: go around and then the game against Houston. He was

485
00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:34,479
Speaker 3: horrible in the first half, played well in the second,

486
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 3: and I don't know, I just I don't see again.

487
00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 3: Could he be end up being really good. Of course

488
00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:43,200
Speaker 3: you take a guy like that at number three because

489
00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:46,639
Speaker 3: of the high ceiling. The problem is the floor is

490
00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:48,840
Speaker 3: low with him, as we kind of saw on those

491
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 3: two starts. So I'm not betting San Francisco. I think

492
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:55,800
Speaker 3: that the hardest team to handicap because their ceiling is

493
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,679
Speaker 3: very high, kind of high Lance. Their ceiling is very high.

494
00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 3: If Trey Lance starts and ends up being really good

495
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:05,400
Speaker 3: and their ceiling is really low, if he ends up stinking,

496
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:08,440
Speaker 3: and we're gonna kind of know right away because those

497
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 3: first two games this year.

498
00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:13,239
Speaker 4: At Chicago, they are almost a touchdown road favorite in

499
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:13,720
Speaker 4: that game.

500
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:17,200
Speaker 3: In the opening numbers in week one, you don't see

501
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 3: that very often. Yeah, we have two of those games

502
00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:21,640
Speaker 3: this year, and in Week two they play Seattle at

503
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:24,960
Speaker 3: home in Seattle. Is not any going on bad If

504
00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 3: Trey Lance looks bad at those two games, that is

505
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,879
Speaker 3: a very bad sign for what San Francisco is.

506
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:31,600
Speaker 4: Gonna be this year.

507
00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:35,320
Speaker 3: If he looks good, then the Niners are gonna be

508
00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:38,399
Speaker 3: a playoff team again. I think Ten's right, Tom. I

509
00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:41,080
Speaker 3: think it's unbettable right now because of the unknown factor

510
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:41,840
Speaker 3: in last.

511
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:44,399
Speaker 1: I think that's fair. I'm just not high on this

512
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:48,560
Speaker 1: team either way. That being said, obviously, wait and see

513
00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:51,639
Speaker 1: what's gonna happen to start this season. Well, as we

514
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,119
Speaker 1: get closer and start the preseason, see where they're venturing

515
00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:57,399
Speaker 1: at quarterback. I think Trey Lance is probably gonna get

516
00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 1: the starting gig week one, simply because of how easy

517
00:22:59,880 --> 00:23:02,680
Speaker 1: the opening schedule is. They're gonna want to get him

518
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 1: out there for the easy games rather than having Jimmy

519
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:07,800
Speaker 1: g soak up some of those and then maybe make

520
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 1: it even harder to go to Lance. I see that

521
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 1: as how the game theory is going to play out

522
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:14,840
Speaker 1: here with this team. But we'll see as the preseason

523
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 1: rolls closer. The next team I want to talk to

524
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:20,080
Speaker 1: you about here the Green Bay Packers. Sure this is

525
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 1: gonna be a tough one this year for them. Eleven

526
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:25,280
Speaker 1: and a half at Fox bet ten and a half

527
00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 1: at Fandal. Again, you can find all of these numbers

528
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 1: quick to compare bettingpros dot com odds. They opened at Minnesota,

529
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:34,400
Speaker 1: and I think that's an l to start off the season.

530
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:36,399
Speaker 1: They don't play everyone in the preseason. We know that

531
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:38,399
Speaker 1: they don't like to do that, and we saw what

532
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 1: that Russ did to them last year versus the Saints

533
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 1: when they got walloped in Week one. But I think

534
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 1: with no Adams, this team takes a step back on offense.

535
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 1: Playing the Giants in London is definitely helped by a

536
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 1: second bye week versus the Jets, but I think they

537
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:55,800
Speaker 1: drop at least one in that stretch of New York,

538
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:59,640
Speaker 1: New York and Washington, and while the schedule is favorable,

539
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:03,080
Speaker 1: I just don't see them getting to twelve.

540
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 4: They should have been Washington last year.

541
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:08,880
Speaker 3: I mean, if you remember that game, freaking Heineke kept

542
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:10,879
Speaker 3: they Washington kept getting in the red zone and not

543
00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:13,159
Speaker 3: score and that was probably the worst beat of the

544
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:17,800
Speaker 3: entire NFL season, getting getting over a touchdown in that

545
00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 3: game and still not getting there on Washington.

546
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:22,320
Speaker 4: Look, I think Green Bay is hard for me.

547
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 3: I don't I don't know what to do with them

548
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:26,440
Speaker 3: because we know Aaron Rodgers is great, but now their

549
00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:30,919
Speaker 3: number one receivers animals are like at some point not

550
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:33,120
Speaker 3: having Devonte Adams, and I know they have played well

551
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:35,720
Speaker 3: with Adams out in the past. At some point him

552
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:39,120
Speaker 3: not being there has to hurt. And I don't know,

553
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,840
Speaker 3: well Christian Watson turned into a legitimate number one wide

554
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 3: receiver right away.

555
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 4: Who knows.

556
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 3: I will say this is the best defense on paper.

557
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 3: Green Bay is a on aut in a while, so

558
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 3: that does help it.

559
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 4: I like them week one.

560
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 3: I think Minnesota's gonna be a big bust again, even

561
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,880
Speaker 3: though the one thing I will say, having O'Connell there

562
00:24:57,880 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 3: as the head coach instead of Zimmer, We're gonna see

563
00:24:59,920 --> 00:25:02,879
Speaker 3: how bad Mike Zimmer really was, or if it just

564
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,159
Speaker 3: was that it had just run his course with Zimmer

565
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 3: and he's actually still a good coach, but it just

566
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 3: he just ran his course for being there as long

567
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 3: as he was.

568
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:15,000
Speaker 4: But look, they get they get Tampa week three. They've

569
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:18,959
Speaker 4: been horrible in this era since Brady's gotten there. Against

570
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:20,959
Speaker 4: the Bucks, they lost both of those games.

571
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:23,800
Speaker 3: But I will say this schedule kind of is conducive

572
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 3: to win a lot of games, like they'll lose at Buffalo,

573
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 3: probably on a Sunday night the.

574
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:28,920
Speaker 4: Week in Halloween.

575
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:31,359
Speaker 3: I think they'll go three and oh in that stretch

576
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 3: that includes the one London game. Like they usually beat

577
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 3: up on bad teams in the Rogers era, they usually

578
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:39,720
Speaker 3: don't lose the teams they shouldn't lose too. They'll lose

579
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 3: the good teams, but they won't blow the games, like

580
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:45,480
Speaker 3: they're not gonna lose the Chicago Week two but you're

581
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:46,200
Speaker 3: not gonna happen.

582
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 4: So I think that number is right.

583
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna bet it though, just because and again

584
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 3: I hate giving you.

585
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 4: I'm not betting this.

586
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 3: But green Bay and San Francisco are probably the two

587
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:03,639
Speaker 3: most complex NFC teams going into the year because like Dallas,

588
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:07,680
Speaker 3: like all right, their schedule, they play six games against

589
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:09,879
Speaker 3: teams we know they're better then, even though I know

590
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:12,280
Speaker 3: people like Philly this year, Dallas is still more talented

591
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 3: than philm and they played the first place schedule, so

592
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:17,360
Speaker 3: they they have to play green Bay.

593
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 4: They have to play well, they get.

594
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,040
Speaker 3: Green Bay because of the NFCS, but they have to

595
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:24,440
Speaker 3: play the Buccaneers. They have to play the Rams. They

596
00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:28,919
Speaker 3: get the the they get they get the Bengals on

597
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 3: the flip for the extra AFC game.

598
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:33,760
Speaker 4: Now, like, all right, you get a sense like Dallas

599
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:36,399
Speaker 4: may be talented, but that schedule is pretty difficult outside

600
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 4: of the division, and you know what they are.

601
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:41,200
Speaker 3: You know what the Cowboys are with Mike McCarthy. They're

602
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:45,119
Speaker 3: very talented and very horribly coached. But with Green Bay,

603
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 3: like with Green Bay in San Francisco, San Francisco, again,

604
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 3: when you don't know the quarterback situation, it's tough. And

605
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,439
Speaker 3: with Green Bay we are talking about a very different

606
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,440
Speaker 3: situation than what we are accustomed to with that team.

607
00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 3: So again, again I hate saying like, oh I don't

608
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 3: like this all like that. But here's the other thing though,

609
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:04,159
Speaker 3: Tom and I gotta bring this up because of the

610
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:07,320
Speaker 3: reason of having two bets, the two teams that don't

611
00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 3: like a bet on. There are ways to bet this

612
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:13,680
Speaker 3: through the season, but there are there are adjusted win totals,

613
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:17,120
Speaker 3: and San Francisco maybe a good one to possibly hop

614
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,640
Speaker 3: on what happens if they win the first two games

615
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 3: and looked royally unimpressive and that win total hopped to

616
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 3: eleven and a half twelve probably, And we saw this with.

617
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:29,680
Speaker 4: Denver last year.

618
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 3: Denver because they won against the Giants on the road

619
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 3: is a favoritem went up two whole wins at one

620
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 3: and oh after week one, and they had the next

621
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:46,920
Speaker 3: two weeks the Great Jaguars and Jets back to back

622
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:50,480
Speaker 3: to two teams they're supposed to beat, and that win

623
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:52,720
Speaker 3: total went up to ten and a half based off

624
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:55,720
Speaker 3: of beating three bad teams. And what happened with Denver,

625
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,200
Speaker 3: they went way the hell under the ten and a half.

626
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 3: So there are opportunities. Just pay attention, Like if San

627
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 3: Francisco looks unimpressive and two wins against two teams they're

628
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 3: supposed to to beat, maybe you come back with it

629
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 3: with adjusted under with Green Bay, you know what, there

630
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 3: there might even be a case.

631
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 4: To go over for them in the season, Like.

632
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:20,160
Speaker 3: If Aaron Rodgers, like, oh, you know what, DeVante as

633
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:23,480
Speaker 3: great as Devanta Adams was, Aaron Rodgers is still the

634
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:26,399
Speaker 3: best talented quarterback we've ever seen, and the Packers offense

635
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:29,600
Speaker 3: looks really good, So like there are ways to bet

636
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:32,119
Speaker 3: this end. Same with our Jets, Like at some point,

637
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:34,520
Speaker 3: like if the Jets start one to nine and an

638
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 3: adjusted win total goes down to two and a half,

639
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:37,640
Speaker 3: guess well, We're.

640
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 4: Gonna bet that over.

641
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 3: Ye'd have been it over because the Jets will win,

642
00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 3: probably because Tom there's no franchise that's done a better

643
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 3: job of ruining the draft pick better than the New

644
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 3: York Jets.

645
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 4: Oh you like, Yeah, of course they'll win.

646
00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 3: Three of their last five games to fall from pick

647
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 3: number two to pick number six. Like I mean, there

648
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:57,480
Speaker 3: are plenty of ways to bet this, and that's Look,

649
00:28:57,560 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 3: that's the good thing with being in this post paths

650
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:03,600
Speaker 3: of War world where you can you can bet these

651
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 3: continuously and the books that put these up credit them.

652
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 4: We have more opportunities.

653
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 1: Now, guys, real quick, remember when you're looking for free

654
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 1: picks and sports betting advice, bettingpros dot com has you

655
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 1: covered with tips from over one hundred and fifty experts

656
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 1: to make it easy for you to cash out. Download

657
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 1: the app to get sports betting alerts. You'll get notified

658
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 1: a favorable bets based online movements, consensus picks from the

659
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 1: most accurate experts and vetted systems in play. Betting Pros

660
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 1: monitors all of the major sports books, most accurate experts,

661
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 1: and top systems to identify the best betting opportunities.

662
00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 2: So download today. In the Apple or Google play stores.

663
00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:44,640
Speaker 1: Jeff, I want to ask you about one more team

664
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 1: before I let you go here, and that is the

665
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 1: Super Bowl runner ups, the Bengals. The number around ten

666
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 1: and a half right now, And I know you have

667
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 1: thoughts on this team. I thought that they overachieved a

668
00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 1: little bit getting to the super Bowl in what I

669
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,000
Speaker 1: thought was going to be a decent year for them.

670
00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 1: I thought they were a playoff possibility, and of course

671
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:06,959
Speaker 1: they blew out all expectations many in as far as

672
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 1: they did this year, I expected them to take more

673
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 1: of that step to being a legit contender. What do

674
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 1: you think is gonna happen? Are they going to regress

675
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 1: with that Super Bowl loss hangover? Or do you think

676
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 1: that they should be right there in the conversation again.

677
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 3: Again, I'll go back to what we said earlier about

678
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 3: the AFC North. That's gonna be an extraordinarily competitive division.

679
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 4: Because all those teams. I know, Look, I know Pittsburgh

680
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:29,840
Speaker 4: has as low of win total as they've ever had.

681
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:31,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, it doesn't matter.

682
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 3: They've they've sucked two of the last three years, and

683
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 3: they were in the play in the playoffs last year

684
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 3: with a bad team, and they went five hundred with

685
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:41,640
Speaker 3: Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph playing quarterback in twenty nineteen.

686
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 3: It doesn't matter, it doesn't matter what they aren't growing

687
00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 3: the win games.

688
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 1: Uh.

689
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:48,520
Speaker 4: And for the Bengals this, I'm actually going to go

690
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 4: back to what I said before. What I just said.

691
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:55,040
Speaker 3: They're a great team to monitor through the year to

692
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 3: figure out an in season win total bet.

693
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:00,720
Speaker 4: Because they're schedule.

694
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 3: They own the Steelers last year, they destroyed them twice.

695
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 3: They get them week one. Now, we saw last year

696
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh somehow won in Buffalo Week one. Maybe Pittsburgh has

697
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 3: another trick up their sleeve early in the season with Trubisky.

698
00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 3: I don't think that would be the case. They played

699
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 3: Dallas League two, tough game, but winnable, and Cincinnati after

700
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 3: that gets the Jets of the Dolphins on a short

701
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 3: week at home, they get Atlanta, they get Carolina like

702
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:29,960
Speaker 3: they get a bunch of winnable games. But the back

703
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 3: end of that schedule is very difficult. After the bye,

704
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 3: Top got Tennessee, Kansas City, Cleveland at Tampa, at New England, Buffalo, Baltimore.

705
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 3: That schedule is brutal. Though after the bye week, which

706
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 3: is Week number ten. That is a team that if

707
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:50,240
Speaker 3: the cracks start to show a little bit, maybe you say,

708
00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 3: oh wow, all right, Cincinnati got out seven and two

709
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 3: or something like that. Pre boy, that would be a

710
00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 3: very high wind total to get over in just a

711
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 3: in season.

712
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 4: They're a team with.

713
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:05,520
Speaker 3: That back end schedule being much tougher than the beginning.

714
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:08,000
Speaker 3: Like if Cincinnati gets through seven and two to beginning

715
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 3: of the year, it probably look to come back under

716
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 3: because they probably go five hundred on the back end,

717
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 3: go eleven and six.

718
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 4: That feels about right that.

719
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 3: In season win justin winter, it will probably be eleven

720
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:24,080
Speaker 3: and a half twelve at that point if they're not,

721
00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 3: if they are well above water at.

722
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 4: The bye week at week ten toimes.

723
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:32,280
Speaker 3: So that's the one I've been pinpointing the most actually

724
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 3: for in season wagering Bengals get out to a big start,

725
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 3: come back with an under in season. If Joe Burrow's

726
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 3: every bit as good as everyone thinks, though maybe I'm

727
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 3: out of luck.

728
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 4: But if Joe Burrow beats me and goes thirteen and four,

729
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:44,600
Speaker 4: so be it.

730
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:47,920
Speaker 1: There you go, Jeff, thank you so much for joining

731
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 1: me today. Really appreciate the time. Where can people find

732
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 1: you and the work you're doing.

733
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 3: Yeah at Jeff Parls on the tweets, v SIN place

734
00:32:55,360 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 3: to watch me, Numbers Game with Gil Alexander, and other

735
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 3: programs on the weekend schedule changing on the time.

736
00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 1: Tom, Jeff again, thank you so much for your time today.

737
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:09,000
Speaker 1: Best of luck with the entire season. I'm sure I'll

738
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 1: be talking to you again real soon. As a matter

739
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 1: of fact, I'm sure we'll be sharing a beer or two.

740
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 4: Without worried about that, Tom, I would say so.

741
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 1: Tom, all right, have a good one and guys, best

742
00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 1: of luck this week. You can find me on Twitter,

743
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:23,440
Speaker 1: at TV, at work, and don't forget hand on over

744
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 1: to bettingpros dot com. We've got everything you need to

745
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:29,920
Speaker 1: get ready for the NFL season. It's a long summer

746
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 1: of prep and we're excited for it. Have a good one, everybody,