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Speaker 1: Good morning. It's Tuesday, the fifteenth of August in London.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Curate podcast. I'm Stephen Carroll and.

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Speaker 2: I'm Tom McKenzie. Coming up today. Record UK wage growth

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Speaker 2: drives BOE rate bets higher.

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Speaker 1: China Central Bank cuts rates as the country's economic headwinds multiply.

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Speaker 2: And a Georgia grand jury indict Donald Trump on charges

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Speaker 2: of election defeat interference.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with a round up of our top stories.

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Speaker 2: Front and center. For US, UK wage growth accelerating to

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Speaker 2: the strongest pace on record. Average earnings excluding bonuses unexpectedly

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Speaker 2: rose by seven point eight percent in the three months

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Speaker 2: through June. The hotter than expected data led traders to

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Speaker 2: price in a peak rate of around six percent For

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Speaker 2: the Bank of England, Our chief europe economist, Jamie Rush says,

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Speaker 2: the BOE is in a tight spot.

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Speaker 3: We got some news on wages today that look even

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Speaker 3: stronger than we previously realized at upward revisions to the

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Speaker 3: back data and stronger paid growthzero point eight percent on

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Speaker 3: the regular pay measure in the three months of June.

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Speaker 3: And that is just much too fast to be consistent

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Speaker 3: with the inflation target. It's going to take some time

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Speaker 3: to come down, and all of it really just strengthens

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Speaker 3: up inviction that they're going to hike again in November

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Speaker 3: as well as September.

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Speaker 2: Jamie Ush's forecast is already being reflected in markets. Traders

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Speaker 2: are now pricing in a high chance of three more

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Speaker 2: quarter point hikes over the next seven months, with the

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Speaker 2: first one coming in September.

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Speaker 1: China Central Bank is unexpectedly cut interest rates as its

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Speaker 1: economic worlds deepen. The PBOC reduce the rate on its

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Speaker 1: one year loans by fifteen basis points to two and

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Speaker 1: a half percent. That's the largest cut since twenty twenty.

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Speaker 1: The surprise move came as Beijing released a raft of

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Speaker 1: disappointing economic data, including weaker growth and industrial output and

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Speaker 1: an increase in unemployment. City Group's head of Asia trading strategy,

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Speaker 1: Muhammad appa By, doesn't expect the rate cut to help.

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Speaker 4: The problem I think is not really one of liquidity

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Speaker 4: in's and money supply is growing something like eleven or

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Speaker 4: twelve percent. The problem is really whether that money is

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Speaker 4: being used, So in some forms it's a bit of

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Speaker 4: a liquidity trap and needs more measures from the authorities

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Speaker 4: to address issues like.

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Speaker 1: Confidence Muhammad appa By's comments come as Beijing says it's

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Speaker 1: pausing publishing data and the country's soaring youth unemployment rate.

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Speaker 1: The announcement is likely to fan fears over economic transparency

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Speaker 1: in the world's second largest economy.

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Speaker 2: And concerns about the outlook for China's economy.

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Speaker 4: Well.

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Speaker 2: They're being echoed by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. She

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Speaker 2: says the slowdown will have quote some spillovers to the

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Speaker 2: United States, but that she's still optimistic for the American economy.

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Speaker 2: Those comments came after a speech in Las Vegas, where

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Speaker 2: the Treasury Secretary hinted at the risk that China poses

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Speaker 2: to a soft landing.

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Speaker 5: The administration remains committed to taking actions to lower prices

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Speaker 5: for Americans where we can, and we continue to monitor

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Speaker 5: development and particularly those abroad, that may affect prices and growth.

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Speaker 2: Janet Ellen also used the speech to reiterate her view

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Speaker 2: that calling inflation can be achieved without an increase in unemployment.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump has been indicted in a fourth criminal case,

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Speaker 1: this time over efforts to overturn the results of his

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty election defeat in Georgia. The sweeping charges target

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Speaker 1: Trump and some of his top administration officials, including former

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Speaker 1: New York City Mayor Rudi Giuliani and former White House

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Speaker 1: Chief of Staff Mark Meadows. Fulton County District Attorney Fanni

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Speaker 1: Willis is prosecuting the case.

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Speaker 6: The indictment alleges that, rather than abide by Georgia's legal

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Speaker 6: process for election challenges, the defendants engaged in a criminal

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Speaker 6: racketeering enterprise to overturn Georgia's presidential election result.

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Speaker 1: Former president has yet to comment on the charges from

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Speaker 1: the district attorney, but his lawyers have called the indictment

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Speaker 1: flawed and unconstitutional. Those are your top stories, Tom, Are

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Speaker 1: you a foodie?

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Speaker 2: I am a somewhat foodie when I have time.

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Speaker 1: Why well, I feel like that you're now trying to

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Speaker 1: push back on the idea that I would suggest you'd

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Speaker 1: go to an expensive restaurant and play for something very fancy.

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Speaker 1: But Noma is coming to London.

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Speaker 2: It's very nice if you just treat me.

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Speaker 1: Yes, well, I mean, I'll see after the show. So

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Speaker 1: this is an story by our food editor Cake Crater

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Speaker 1: is writing about Noma three point zero coming to London,

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Speaker 1: but for one day only. It's a collaboration with the

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Speaker 1: Mexican restaurant call. They're going to be debuting new products.

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Speaker 1: It's sort of a tasting event. Tickets are ninety five pounds,

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Speaker 1: including two drinks and two products to take home as well,

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Speaker 1: which is not bad when you consider that you'll pay

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Speaker 1: significantly more than that, several multiples of that. In fact,

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Speaker 1: if you want to go to the original Nomah Copenhagen

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Speaker 1: for a fancy.

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Speaker 2: Dinner, five hundred and eighty dollars.

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Speaker 1: Yes, the conversion from a dot.

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Speaker 2: Almost six hundred dollars for a meal and a number,

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Speaker 2: but that's if you get a seat, right, it must

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Speaker 2: be one of it's going to be one of those restaurants.

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Speaker 2: We have to book six months, twelve months, and have you.

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Speaker 1: Been exactly No, I would like to, but I'm trying

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Speaker 1: to work out if I think that it's worth it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, Well, someone who'd have views on that definitely

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Speaker 2: would be someone like John Steppeck. I mean, we're bringing

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Speaker 2: him in to talk about what's happening in the UK

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Speaker 2: inflation front. Is this going to push up and is

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Speaker 2: this one of those things that pushes up temporarily pushes

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Speaker 2: up inflation?

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Speaker 1: Take us left effect, let's bring it, let's.

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Speaker 2: Bring in stomp checks. John's Tom. I'm just projecting there.

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Speaker 2: John Steppeck for the take on what were again really

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Speaker 2: really scorchingly hot wage increases here in the UK, and

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Speaker 2: of course what it means for the Bank of England.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, no, it was very very pointy wage inflation figures

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Speaker 7: and obviously you'll need them here Ford your ticket for

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Speaker 7: normal three points here sounds great, fy. No, so we're

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Speaker 7: the kind of highest infliction for we weed raises on

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Speaker 7: air CUD since two thousand and points up seven point

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Speaker 7: eight percent, and actually if you throw in bonuses, which

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Speaker 7: for once we're not in the financial sector but in

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Speaker 7: the NHS, then it went up eight point two percent,

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Speaker 7: so you know, pretty chunky. It's always must member at

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Speaker 7: this point that inflation is also around about that rate,

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Speaker 7: and actually, in real terms wages are now basically flat,

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Speaker 7: which is a massive improvement on the last kind of

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Speaker 7: like you know, a few years, and hopefully that will

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Speaker 7: continue so that real wages actually turned positive in the

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Speaker 7: coming months. That does bring some of its own issues,

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Speaker 7: but that's that's at the Bank of England. No, the

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Speaker 7: Bank of England will be kind of miserable, I mean,

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Speaker 7: thankfully all their their pensions are dB pensions that are

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Speaker 7: inflation indexed anyway, So from a personal point of view,

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Speaker 7: they won't be worried. But from a reputational point of view,

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Speaker 7: given that most of them have spent a lot of

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Speaker 7: time complaining about how wages are going up too quickly,

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Speaker 7: this is not going to help matters the we Obviously,

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Speaker 7: we do have the actual inflation figures tomorrow and before

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Speaker 7: the next Bank England meeting in September. September twenty one,

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Speaker 7: the next meeting is so we've got another jobs reading

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Speaker 7: and another inflation reading before that, so a lot can

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Speaker 7: change between now and then. I do think that's actually

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Speaker 7: more worth thinking about than it normally. It's because if

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Speaker 7: you think about the course of this year and how

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Speaker 7: interest ry expectations have just zigzagged from one data point

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Speaker 7: to another. I mean we thought, you know it kind

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Speaker 7: of in spring roughly, like people were kind of thinking, oh, well,

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Speaker 7: maybe we're going to peak at four point seventy five percent,

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Speaker 7: and then we had one whopper of an inflation shock

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Speaker 7: and kind of the main reading and suddenly it was

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Speaker 7: oh my goodness. You know, people were talking about, oh,

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Speaker 7: the base rate might have to copy seven percent all

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Speaker 7: of a sudden, so you know this could hold to

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Speaker 7: on the next couple of data points.

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Speaker 1: So is this does this paint us any element of

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Speaker 1: a consistent picture? And we're trying to kind of make

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Speaker 1: that projection in any sort of a straight line. Because

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Speaker 1: you talked about the right bet of moved up intown dramatically.

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Speaker 1: We're now up around a peak right again of six percent.

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Speaker 1: Is this going to be our future for the next

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Speaker 1: few months? Every single data point has the potential to

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Speaker 1: push the bets for the Bank of England an avide

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Speaker 1: different direction.

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Speaker 7: I think the next few months, but particularly the August

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Speaker 7: September kind of October time, because really, well there's I

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Speaker 7: suppose us two things. So there are wages. Wages and

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Speaker 7: kind of employment obviously are a big important issue. The

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Speaker 7: trick to think about employment as a lagging indicator some

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Speaker 7: of the more forward looking stuff, and employment implies that

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Speaker 7: maybe the labor market is loosening a bit, but I'm

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Speaker 7: not as really to my mind, there's nothing you can

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Speaker 7: take to the bank and say, oh, well, no, we're

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Speaker 7: heading for a major downturn. But on the inflation side

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Speaker 7: of things, the news is going to get better simply

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Speaker 7: because of base effects. So like tomorrow we should get

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Speaker 7: a CPI that starts with a six rather than a seven. Now,

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Speaker 7: you know, whether it comes in as expected or lower

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Speaker 7: or higher than expected, you know, is another question. But

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Speaker 7: the point is it will be significantly lower than it

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Speaker 7: has been and most people, you know, the person in

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Speaker 7: the street will think, okay, so that's not this looks

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Speaker 7: of its getting better. And then again from October we'll

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Speaker 7: get the kind of you know, the energy bills side

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Speaker 7: of things dropping it again. And at that point you're

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Speaker 7: probably looking at a CPI that's maybe more like starting

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Speaker 7: with a you know, a four, or maybe a low

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Speaker 7: kind of five. So the point is that inflation is

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Speaker 7: going to go in roughly the right direction for the

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Speaker 7: Bank of England's liking for probably the next six months

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Speaker 7: at least. It's just wages are gonna just wild.

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Speaker 2: Just before we just as we wrap up with you, John,

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Speaker 2: on the question of the recept does this economy avoider recesion?

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Speaker 2: We got the strong wage growth. The ecout of the

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Speaker 2: ky matswards ended last week was also surprised the upside

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Speaker 2: again the resilience of this UK economy. But then on

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Speaker 2: the flip side, six percent rates do we do we

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Speaker 2: avoid a recession?

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Speaker 7: I think the avoided recession this year, no doubt. I mean,

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Speaker 7: there's no question, man. I mean next year, you know

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Speaker 7: a lot of it, this is the tricking. A lot

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Speaker 7: of it depends on what happens globally. You know, if

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Speaker 7: the US does end up going every station at some point,

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Speaker 7: then you will be in trouble. But I guess this

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Speaker 7: is what the debates are about at the moment. You know,

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Speaker 7: it's you know, you could argue the manufacturing sector has

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Speaker 7: been in restation and there's no bottoming out, and so

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Speaker 7: maybe that is going to come back, and maybe we're

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Speaker 7: going to avoid oversation altogether. It's that whole soft hardlin

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Speaker 7: diding thing. But this year, nah, doing noticiation.

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Speaker 1: Okay, John, thank you very much. That's John. Step out there.

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Speaker 1: If you weren't drink. What all these macro UK stories

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Speaker 1: mean for your money? You should read John's money to seale.

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Speaker 1: The news data out every day on Bloomberg Now.

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Speaker 2: Former US President Donald Trump has been indicted in Georgium

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Speaker 2: over his efforts to undo the twenty twenty election results.

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Speaker 2: The Grand during Atlanta charge Trump and eighteen other defendants,

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Speaker 2: including Rudy Giuliani and former White House Chief of staff

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Speaker 2: Mark Meadows. It is the fourth time the former president

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Speaker 2: has been indicted. Let's get more now from Bloomberg's Bruce Einhorn,

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Speaker 2: who's been following this story for us. Bruce, take us

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Speaker 2: through the details of these charges.

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Speaker 8: So there are nineteen people indicted. There were thirty other

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Speaker 8: people listed as unindicted co conspirators. They're forty one different counts.

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Speaker 8: Those include racketeering, conspiracy to commit election fraud, to file

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Speaker 8: false documents, computer theft, influence witnesses, perjury. Among the people

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Speaker 8: indictment indicted along with former President Trump include Rudy Giuliani,

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Speaker 8: the former New York City mayor who was the former

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Speaker 8: president's lawyer, other lawyers for Donald Trump, such as John

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Speaker 8: Eastman Sidney Powell. One name that is a surprise to

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Speaker 8: a lot of people, I think is Mark Meadows, the

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Speaker 8: former chief of staff in the White House. He was

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Speaker 8: not among the people indicted by Jack Smith in the

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Speaker 8: various cases that the Special Council has indicted, either in

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Speaker 8: mar A Lago for the our Logo Documents case or

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Speaker 8: for the January sixth case, but he was indicted by

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Speaker 8: Fannie Willis the District Attorney in Fulton County, Georgia. She

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Speaker 8: has said that she expects everybody indicted to all the

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Speaker 8: defendants to surrender by next Friday, August twenty fifth. She

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Speaker 8: intends to try all nineteen defendants together and she wants

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Speaker 8: to ask the judge for a trial within six months.

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Speaker 8: That's something that is really going to be up to

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Speaker 8: the judge. We don't know who the judge is going

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Speaker 8: to be at the moment yet.

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Speaker 1: Bruce, you mentioned some of the cases they're facing Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump as well. How do these charges compare to the

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Speaker 1: others that have been leveled at the president former presidents.

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Speaker 8: So there are a bunch of criminal charges. So this

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Speaker 8: is the fourth criminal indictment. There are also several civil cases.

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Speaker 8: This is the second of the criminal indictments that has

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Speaker 8: to do with efforts to overturn the election. There's the

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Speaker 8: recent indictment by Jack Smith involving the former president. A

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Speaker 8: big difference between the two is that this is a

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Speaker 8: state case rather than a federal case. There's nothing in

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Speaker 8: the constitution preventing anybody under indictment, or even anybody convicted

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Speaker 8: of a crime, to run for president and service president. However,

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Speaker 8: the president does have the ability to pardon people convicted

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Speaker 8: of federal crimes, potentially even pardoning himself, which is something

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Speaker 8: that people expect President Trump to do. If he were

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Speaker 8: to win reelection, he would not have that ability. In

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Speaker 8: this case, a president cannot issue a pardon on a

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Speaker 8: state charge, so simply winning the election or any other

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Speaker 8: Republican winning election would not make this go away.