1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:04,760 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast. 2 00:00:04,960 --> 00:00:05,920 Speaker 2: All right, here we go. 3 00:00:11,360 --> 00:00:12,200 Speaker 3: Spreading the corn. 4 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 4: Ten seconds remaining, they just go show up to the basket, 5 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 4: under the basket. 6 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:20,120 Speaker 2: It's the crew for the wind God. 7 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 4: They go, Amerracle, I'm just. 8 00:00:25,000 --> 00:00:28,920 Speaker 2: Chop the water. Hit that one from the parking lot. 9 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:30,320 Speaker 1: Shuck it all. 10 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:35,000 Speaker 2: In college basketball, it's. 11 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 4: Not the size on the dog in the fight, it's 12 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:39,479 Speaker 4: the size. 13 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 1: Of the fight in the dog. 14 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:45,239 Speaker 3: Big Bets on Campus Podcasts. I am your host, Kai McEwan, 15 00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:47,880 Speaker 3: joined by the rest of the three man Weave crew, 16 00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:52,519 Speaker 3: Jim Root and Mac Cox. We're coming to you every 17 00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 3: Wednesday morning and your podcast feed breaking down college basketball 18 00:00:56,720 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 3: slates from Wednesday, Thursday, a little bit of Friday and 19 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 3: Saturday as well. Fellas as we usually do, Let's start 20 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:07,440 Speaker 3: with our live dog section, which underdogs we look into 21 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:09,160 Speaker 3: back on the money line this week. 22 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 1: Where's Mine? 23 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:18,679 Speaker 4: Oh my dog, Where's mine? 24 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 3: Quick recap of last week. UNLV got it done, dominated 25 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 3: Colorado State Go ReBs forty five points from Bryce Hamilton. Jim, 26 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:29,600 Speaker 3: would you say that's good? 27 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 2: Forty five points? I would say that is terrific. It 28 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:35,039 Speaker 2: was a clobbering kuy. They were up double digits basically 29 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:37,959 Speaker 2: the entire game. How about those rebels. Let's let's ignore 30 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 2: the whiffs we had. 31 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:42,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, the whiffs included Western Kentucky. They did lose to UAB, 32 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 3: they covered, and UAB later lost to Marshall UCF never 33 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:51,360 Speaker 3: never competitive with Houston and Fellows. I'm officially gonna stop 34 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 3: fading Houston. I'm done. I'm done fading the Koogs. 35 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 1: Players don't matter on that team. I think us three 36 00:01:57,440 --> 00:02:00,200 Speaker 1: and two other guys in my building could probably They 37 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 1: give twenty five and five with Kevin Samson teaching us 38 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:03,840 Speaker 1: how to play defense, and. 39 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 3: Then Winthrop weirdly lost to Longwood. Longwood truly is the 40 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:09,480 Speaker 3: class of the Big South, looking to represent them in 41 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 3: the tournament. Wow, great coaching there, long Yeah there, undefeated 42 00:02:13,360 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 3: in the Big South. How about them Lancers? 43 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 2: Incredible? 44 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:18,320 Speaker 3: Now we turn the page to this week and let's 45 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:21,240 Speaker 3: look at Wednesday. First, I'll let you guys pick out 46 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 3: some games you'd like here, got produced visit visiting Minnesota, Arkansas, Georgia, Florida. 47 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 3: Jim is coming to Miszoo. We'll talk about that one 48 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:33,679 Speaker 3: for sure, Matt. Your favorite and my favorite as well though, 49 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 3: is Valparaiso at Evansville of all teams plus the eights, 50 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 3: according to Ken Palm in favor of Well, Valpo's the 51 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 3: favorite team, but Matt Valpo's banged up. Why do you 52 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:47,320 Speaker 3: think they might lose against Evansville on Wednesday? 53 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 1: Because Evan's amos actually looked feisty the last three games, 54 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:53,720 Speaker 1: Kayak looking abysmal prior to that. They beat Illinois State 55 00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 1: last Sunday. Then they compete with Iowa. 56 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 2: Ye, this is at Valpo. I think that's an important beat. 57 00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:03,200 Speaker 1: It is important, but I think, yeah, let's have Alpo. 58 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 1: I Again, that's another from a money line perspective, I 59 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 1: like that. That gives me an extra you know, that 60 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 1: would just start obviously not be minus eight if it 61 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 1: were at if we're at Evansville. So I think that 62 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 1: plays into it. The home shouldn't be that strong high 63 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 1: look of the numbers this morning, the home court in 64 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:22,840 Speaker 1: the Valley has not been that great this season. So 65 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:25,280 Speaker 1: I think you're looking at a good spot for a 66 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:28,280 Speaker 1: Evansville team that's trending up, their guards, that played really well. 67 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 1: They can get hot, Jim. It's one of these high 68 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 1: variance teams that with how many threes they shoot, they 69 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:35,120 Speaker 1: go thirteen to twenty nine. They can play to a 70 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 1: very high level and certainly not call off a Valpo 71 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 1: team that without Trevor Anderson, without Thomas kith He or 72 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 1: the Formish can State transferred. 73 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 3: They are very very beatable. 74 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:45,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, A lot of it turns out when you take 75 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 2: twenty three year old to get some back issues, you're 76 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:51,760 Speaker 2: old at eight backs. Both Anderson and Kithi are guys 77 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 2: a fifthier seniors that have had major, major back problems. 78 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 2: That's an issue. Yeah, I think Evansville can absolutely be 79 00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 2: feisty without those guys out there. Valpo's had some pitiful 80 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 2: performances without them. They just got blasted by twenty against 81 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 2: Southern Illinois. I like that one too. I think the 82 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 2: Aces get it done. 83 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, and now you mentioned last three games. They have 84 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 3: covered Evansville last three games, so a little bit of 85 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:15,560 Speaker 3: precedence there a sign they're getting better. Jim, though, let's 86 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:19,039 Speaker 3: talk about Florida at Miszoo. That's where we went to university. 87 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:23,400 Speaker 3: Five points per kin Pom is the number here. Heck, 88 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 3: Maszoo's been feisty. I can see it. 89 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:28,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, Florida still doesn't have Castleton. I think that's a 90 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 2: nice little bonus for our tigers probably won't get beat 91 00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 2: up inside quite as much. That's the issue. Missoo doesn't 92 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:38,880 Speaker 2: have a lot of size, but Florida lacks threatening size 93 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 2: without Castleton in there. It seems like Miszoos has sort 94 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:46,600 Speaker 2: of adopted the slow down, grind it out, make it 95 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 2: a possession game late. They've had a bunch of those 96 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:52,240 Speaker 2: games Loston to Auburn, lost it to Texas A and M. 97 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 2: But they've been playing close enough that I think they 98 00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:56,520 Speaker 2: can get one of these done. And like I said, 99 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 2: limited Florida, I think it's a good spot for Matthias. 100 00:04:59,200 --> 00:04:59,599 Speaker 4: I agree. 101 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 1: It's just again from if we're saying money line bets here. 102 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:06,480 Speaker 1: If the projected spread per kempalm is five points, assuming 103 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 1: the odds makers hang it somewhere close to that, I 104 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:11,359 Speaker 1: think I'd like to be catching seven or eight points 105 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 1: translating that to a money line price kai, I think 106 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 1: that'd be a better money line value on It's. 107 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:20,600 Speaker 2: All about the pin. If you think it's a coin 108 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:22,600 Speaker 2: flip game and you're getting any sort of plus money, 109 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 2: then you're don't know. 110 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I can't happen as it was a coin 111 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:28,560 Speaker 1: flip against anyone in the sec it was it was 112 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 1: you pull. 113 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 4: I don't know, but now I can't. 114 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:34,280 Speaker 3: Do it here skipping the rest of the Wednesday games, Guys, 115 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:36,799 Speaker 3: I don't expect Georgia. They're not going to beat Arkansas 116 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:39,800 Speaker 3: famous last words, I suppose there. But Thursday, we have 117 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 3: a little intriguing matchup here that you guys like a 118 00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:45,760 Speaker 3: little bit better than I do. I think UTSA, the 119 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:49,000 Speaker 3: fighting road Runners, the running mead Runners. 120 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 4: The Runners maybe are. 121 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 3: Heading to Rice and Kemp Pump says this spread is 122 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:56,240 Speaker 3: going to be about thirteen points. You guys like UTSA. 123 00:05:56,600 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 3: Matthew explain why here. 124 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:03,920 Speaker 1: There last two games with both Jordan Ivy Curry their 125 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:07,360 Speaker 1: point guard back arguably best player, most valuable player, and 126 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 1: Ju Jang if I'm saying that correctly, who was a 127 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:13,560 Speaker 1: pretty talented wing combo guard who I think was considering 128 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:16,880 Speaker 1: going pro, got those two guys back. The last two games, 129 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:20,360 Speaker 1: they beat FIU at home. They are out playing, winning 130 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:23,520 Speaker 1: most of the game against FAU, and then meltdown catastrophically 131 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:26,040 Speaker 1: down the stretch to not only lose, but not cover. 132 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:27,039 Speaker 4: God damn it. 133 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:29,920 Speaker 1: Close out games teams, because I think that's just right 134 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:32,440 Speaker 1: in a nutshell, is the a good omen for things 135 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 1: to come for you TSA that's been sort of in 136 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:37,520 Speaker 1: disarrayl season. I think Steve Henson's a good coach. I 137 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 1: respect him. He's just struggled to kind of find his 138 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:45,720 Speaker 1: life after Jackson and Wallace. Basically having two electric scorers 139 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:48,400 Speaker 1: this season was like a very turboe start because you 140 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:50,360 Speaker 1: have to get to get used to life without those dudes, 141 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 1: find other guys to step up. Now he has gonna 142 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:55,280 Speaker 1: catch a pretty juicy price here. Shouldn't be a ton 143 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:57,360 Speaker 1: of travel gym going to Rice a cross Stateton, Texas. 144 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 1: Rice is not great defensive. It seems like a game 145 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:03,360 Speaker 1: where you know UTSA can get hot and pull it off. 146 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, this is far from a coin flip like this. 147 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 2: This is about the value, about the price, and I 148 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 2: think it's going to be a little juiced up because 149 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:12,800 Speaker 2: UTSA got blown out without the guys you mentioned a 150 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 2: couple of games that has decreased their value in analytics rankings. Unfortunately, 151 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:20,320 Speaker 2: Matt right, Now, UTSA in league play is last than 152 00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:22,520 Speaker 2: three point percentage, last than two point percentage, last, and 153 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:25,720 Speaker 2: three percentage. This team hasn't been able to shoot the ball, 154 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:29,200 Speaker 2: but even the worst shooting team the country should should 155 00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:31,440 Speaker 2: make more than twenty four percent from deep, so there 156 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:35,000 Speaker 2: is possibly some regression there. Rice takes a bunch of threes, 157 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 2: which makes us game higher variance. I do think it 158 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:41,880 Speaker 2: is worth a stab here and a Friday. We got 159 00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:44,400 Speaker 2: a couple options here, Matt. We're not going to fade Toledo. 160 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:46,800 Speaker 3: We're not going to join the Toledo faders anonymous because 161 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 3: they're fifteen state. 162 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 1: It is gonna be Tweeda. You're here first, ball staleill 163 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:51,240 Speaker 1: be Tueda. 164 00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:53,360 Speaker 3: Thanksam. Are you really taking ball State? 165 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:54,040 Speaker 2: You didn't write it down? 166 00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 3: Are you taking ball State? 167 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:55,680 Speaker 4: I wrote it down? 168 00:07:55,760 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 1: Is my number one baby fall State hosting Toledo? Exclamation mark, 169 00:07:58,440 --> 00:07:59,720 Speaker 1: exclamation mark, exclamation mark. 170 00:07:59,760 --> 00:08:01,440 Speaker 3: Well we recap at the bottom of the page, and 171 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 3: you did not list ball States, So. 172 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:05,680 Speaker 4: Okay, yes, Sorr, I mean it's the official betslip. Thanks, 173 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 4: all right? 174 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 3: Why do you think? Why do you think ball State 175 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 3: is gonna win against Toledo who is fifteen to five 176 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:12,960 Speaker 3: against the spread with an average cover margin over five points, 177 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:14,560 Speaker 3: both among the best in the country. 178 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 1: Again to value play, the spread's gonna be really high, 179 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:21,040 Speaker 1: probably close to ten points, and ball State has a 180 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 1: couple of matchup advantages here. I think with guys like 181 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:26,960 Speaker 1: Tyler Cochrane and especially my guy Payton Sparks, they can 182 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 1: score inside. But when it comes to defending Toledo, Kay, 183 00:08:30,560 --> 00:08:32,600 Speaker 1: you need some Obviously, if I'm betting this as a 184 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 1: money line backer here, I'm gonna need some fortunate regression 185 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:39,319 Speaker 1: in terms of Toledo not making threes. But Toledo's so 186 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:40,800 Speaker 1: damn good to get to the rim at will. It's 187 00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:42,640 Speaker 1: like they almost they almost don't even need to make 188 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:44,920 Speaker 1: threes at a high clip this year. All that said, 189 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 1: I think ball State's trending up. I think the price 190 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 1: is going to be pretty juicy, So I will be on. 191 00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 2: My Cardinals game one match. I'll probably bet the Rockets, Matt. 192 00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:54,800 Speaker 2: I think Toledo is just way too good for them. 193 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 3: Lto was up twenty seven points in the first matchup. 194 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:01,080 Speaker 3: Sparks did a good game seventeen and four. Team. However, 195 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:02,680 Speaker 3: Teed is number one of the conference in two point 196 00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 3: percentage defense. I don't know matter they're that soft inside, 197 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:07,000 Speaker 3: I'm going away from them. 198 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:09,000 Speaker 4: They're soft, but they're good. 199 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 3: I might throw a flyer at Milwaukee on Friday and 200 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:17,440 Speaker 3: it's terrible but plus eight at prdue forour Wayne who's 201 00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:20,480 Speaker 3: played very well this year. But you could argue Milwaukee's 202 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:22,920 Speaker 3: more talented than this team, and they have the ability, 203 00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:25,160 Speaker 3: not saying they will, but they have the ability to 204 00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:27,120 Speaker 3: win this game out right. I might take one for 205 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 3: the Panthers. 206 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:30,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, they beat Oakland by ten well just two weeks ago, 207 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 1: and then they beat Ie p u I, which is 208 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 1: not saying much, but thirty. Like, we've seen evidence of competence, 209 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 1: and I think by this point Baldwin could be back 210 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 1: right to Chancey Pies. 211 00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:39,280 Speaker 3: No he's not. 212 00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:39,960 Speaker 2: He doesn't matter. 213 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:43,439 Speaker 4: We're not making on that care. 214 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 2: Threes. So kind of like Rice, they're a team that 215 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:49,520 Speaker 2: can get cold and leave you open to some variants. 216 00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 3: Here, fellas on Saturday, we can touch real quickly here. 217 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:55,480 Speaker 3: I know you guys each like a different game. Jim, 218 00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:58,520 Speaker 3: You kind of like Vandy against LSU on Saturday. 219 00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:01,640 Speaker 2: I think the Commodore's or a completely different team when 220 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:05,360 Speaker 2: Rodney Chapman plays, and he was back last game. LSU's 221 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 2: still dealing with the injury di Zavier Pinson. He did 222 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 2: play some over the weekend, but it was limited. Not 223 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:12,080 Speaker 2: sure if he'll be one hundred percent I mean this 224 00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 2: is a week after that, so he'll probably be a 225 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 2: lot closer to one hundred percent. And of course Bandy 226 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:20,200 Speaker 2: could turn the ball over something like twenty four times. 227 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 2: That is entirely realistic. But I think with Chapman and 228 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:26,960 Speaker 2: Pippin they have two solid ball handlers, they're not going 229 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 2: to get blown away. Like LSU's interior attack is more 230 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:33,240 Speaker 2: like lob it up to dunkers than it is play 231 00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:35,679 Speaker 2: through the post. So I think they're at least able 232 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:38,600 Speaker 2: to negate that a little bit. And Vandy has the shooters. Again, 233 00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:40,800 Speaker 2: we're looking for high variants when you're looking for money 234 00:10:40,880 --> 00:10:43,440 Speaker 2: underdogs and money land underdogs, and I think Vandy has 235 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:45,040 Speaker 2: at least a chance. Appointment went off. 236 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:48,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, I had twelve of twenty three from Downtown against Georgia, 237 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:50,560 Speaker 1: a game they should have covered easily, Georgia with a 238 00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:53,000 Speaker 1: bogus late run to ruin that. So yeah, I think 239 00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:55,160 Speaker 1: you already have evidence with one game of Chapman and 240 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 1: there what he means twenty minutes, twelve points, four boards, 241 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:03,240 Speaker 1: highly efficient, just an awesome robin to Pippin's batman. Ironically, 242 00:11:03,320 --> 00:11:06,480 Speaker 1: with Pippin's dad used to being a robin for Michael 243 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:08,839 Speaker 1: Jordan Kay who play for the Chicago Bulls. They want 244 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:10,559 Speaker 1: to Yeah, I've heard of that guy. 245 00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:14,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, but Matt Saturday, that's not your favorite that you 246 00:11:14,880 --> 00:11:18,320 Speaker 3: are looking at. L I U heading to Wagner spreak 247 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:19,880 Speaker 3: v big over double digits. 248 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:22,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna put my hand up here real quick 249 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:24,560 Speaker 1: and confess this is a partial hedge for a pretty 250 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:28,520 Speaker 1: large Wagner Conference title future ticket that I believe we 251 00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 1: all three hold. I also think LA is playing really 252 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 1: good basketball, and they're extremely talented and talk about high 253 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 1: variants when you have the front court that they have, 254 00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 1: and you have a prolific scorer like Ty Flowers, and 255 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:41,880 Speaker 1: you play in the league like the NEC, which is 256 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:45,520 Speaker 1: as parody ritten as any conference in America. Catching twelve 257 00:11:45,600 --> 00:11:47,560 Speaker 1: at Wagner as good as Wagner's been, as much as 258 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 1: we believe in Wagner, I think twelve is an awfully 259 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:54,760 Speaker 1: juicy converted money line price here for the artist formerly 260 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:56,680 Speaker 1: known as the Blackbirds Guy, now the Sharks. 261 00:11:56,679 --> 00:11:59,560 Speaker 2: Obviously, the first game between these two went to overtime. 262 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:02,280 Speaker 2: It took a three late Wagner hit a buzzer beater 263 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:04,560 Speaker 2: to send it to overtime. That was at l i U. 264 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 2: Flowers had a monster game. There's just no matchup for 265 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:10,120 Speaker 2: him in this league. They had a chance to beat 266 00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 2: Bryant until Flowers got ejected. So I think LU definitely 267 00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:17,319 Speaker 2: is a little bit undervalued what they are the way 268 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:20,080 Speaker 2: their structure does not play up against power competition, But 269 00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 2: in the NEC they can be a lot more feisty, 270 00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:24,520 Speaker 2: so which makes them maybe a hair underrated right now. 271 00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:27,559 Speaker 3: It's nice for Wagner those LU is very stupid. One 272 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:30,520 Speaker 3: of the stupidest teams are Domondry hence they are five 273 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 3: and five in this league and they lost to Central Connecticut. 274 00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, as we talked them up there and then to recap. 275 00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 3: Jim likes Mzoo on Wednesday, as well as Evansville UTSA 276 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:44,560 Speaker 3: on Thursday and Vanderbilt on Saturday. Kyle likes Evansville and 277 00:12:44,640 --> 00:12:49,600 Speaker 3: Milwaukee on Friday. Matthew likes Ball State, Evansville UTSA, and 278 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 3: the l i U Sharks. Good Ship, good Ship, Rokie. 279 00:12:53,000 --> 00:13:01,120 Speaker 3: Blowout City is our next section. Last week we talked 280 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:04,000 Speaker 3: about Iepu I've never played. We talked about Vermont. They 281 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:06,280 Speaker 3: only beat Made by thirteen and gosh dang, those Black 282 00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:11,439 Speaker 3: Bears have been feisty and then also EIU is now 283 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:14,679 Speaker 3: off the blowout city or off the radar, watch, off 284 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:17,360 Speaker 3: the watch. They got two wins in a row. 285 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:17,880 Speaker 2: How about that? 286 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:18,199 Speaker 4: They're good? 287 00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 3: The Panthers They're not good. 288 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 1: No, they fucking suck, but they pulled off two decent 289 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:24,360 Speaker 1: wins in the OVCO. 290 00:13:25,760 --> 00:13:28,400 Speaker 2: Welcome to wins anyways, maybe two more than we thought 291 00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 2: they'd get. So congratulates Panthers. 292 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:32,040 Speaker 4: I had them going over this week. 293 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:35,520 Speaker 3: Today we're looking at Bucknell at Colgate. Projected spread minus 294 00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 3: seventeen in favor of Colgate. Bucknell off a huge overtime game. Jim, 295 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:41,880 Speaker 3: what do you think about this one? 296 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:44,680 Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean, I just think Bucknell has struggled with 297 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:48,240 Speaker 2: teams that execute offensively, and Colgate can do that. They 298 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:50,960 Speaker 2: will put you in the hurt locker if you're missing 299 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:54,800 Speaker 2: rotations or you're losing shooters, and that is something a 300 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:57,319 Speaker 2: young Bucknell team has been wont to do. I think 301 00:13:57,360 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 2: Colgate blows them out. They've won five to their past six, 302 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:02,000 Speaker 2: coming home after two tough road games. I think it 303 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:03,840 Speaker 2: sets up well for the Raiders. 304 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:05,839 Speaker 4: Matthias, Yeah, I agree. 305 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:08,280 Speaker 1: I left this section a little bit light because there 306 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:10,360 Speaker 1: just aren't many great candidates and I'm not good at 307 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:13,280 Speaker 1: picking large favorites. The only other one that made the 308 00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:16,840 Speaker 1: consideration list was Boise State hosting San Jose State on Saturday. 309 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 1: Just think San Jose State with how they're trending, which 310 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 1: is downward recently, no inside presence. I think boys, you 311 00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 1: could just manhandle them at home. That's the only one 312 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:27,720 Speaker 1: I'd consider. I'll throw one more at the wall. And 313 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:32,240 Speaker 1: Abilene Christian is hosting Chicago's State. I know Chicago State 314 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:33,800 Speaker 1: has been a lot better, but I think this could 315 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:36,800 Speaker 1: be a blood bath. There's going to be forty turnovers 316 00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:39,520 Speaker 1: on Chicago State's end, and Abli is just really tough, 317 00:14:39,520 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 1: and it's at home as well. 318 00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 2: So I respect Chicago State. 319 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:44,680 Speaker 3: I respect Chicago State, but Aveline Christian could be a 320 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:47,000 Speaker 3: different animal. They've been playing a little bit worse lately. 321 00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 3: Maybe they get their mojo back. That does it for 322 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:53,240 Speaker 3: blow out City. Let's head to some power games, some 323 00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:57,160 Speaker 3: really really awesome matchups of this coming week. Let's start 324 00:14:57,200 --> 00:15:01,760 Speaker 3: on Wednesday. Villanova is playing marque This is an important 325 00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:04,840 Speaker 3: game for the Cats here. Minus four is projected spread 326 00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:07,640 Speaker 3: at Marquette because they need to keep pace with Providence, 327 00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 3: a team that keeps winning and they're now a game 328 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:13,160 Speaker 3: behind the biggest standings and Marquette, as we know, has 329 00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:16,840 Speaker 3: been super good lately. Jim does that Marquette Pfizer for 330 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:19,720 Speaker 3: a magic that you're all too familiar with went out 331 00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:20,640 Speaker 3: against Villanova. 332 00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:24,120 Speaker 2: Spooks me a little bit, but it's offset by angry 333 00:15:24,200 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 2: Villanova seeking revenge. They lost at the Pavilion to Marquette 334 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:30,360 Speaker 2: at the Horn, and I think that's going to grind 335 00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:33,480 Speaker 2: the gears of the very veteran Wildcats team. I will 336 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 2: probably be leaning towards Villanova on this line, but I 337 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:39,760 Speaker 2: do also fear the crowd. I mean, Villanova, I think 338 00:15:39,760 --> 00:15:42,920 Speaker 2: has lost three to last five in Milwaukee, so it's 339 00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:45,560 Speaker 2: not exactly a place they waltz into every year. Well 340 00:15:45,640 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 2: spook Matt, but leaning towards the Wildcats. 341 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:51,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm torn here. I've just been so impressed by Marquette, 342 00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 1: their ability to win these like slower and more traditional 343 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:56,960 Speaker 1: Big East grueling rock fights as fast as they played. 344 00:15:56,960 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 4: I mean, they beat Villanova in a. 345 00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:00,720 Speaker 1: Sixty to one'session game, basically beating onanol at their own game, 346 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:04,040 Speaker 1: had a chance to beat Providence just coming on Sunday, 347 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:08,640 Speaker 1: so another sort of bounce back spot in Marquette's favor. However, 348 00:16:08,680 --> 00:16:12,800 Speaker 1: I think the revenge angle from Nova's the stronger motivational one. 349 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:15,400 Speaker 1: A lot of dynamics. Kayak, I'm just gonna sit back 350 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:17,280 Speaker 1: and watch and enjoy what should be a pretty high 351 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:19,160 Speaker 1: quality basketball game with no investment. 352 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:22,160 Speaker 3: I think Nova gets it done. They were controlling that 353 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:24,080 Speaker 3: first game. They're up by as many as nine. In 354 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 3: the second half, Marquette hits thirteen threes and Nova hits 355 00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:29,800 Speaker 3: six of them. Got to think that evens out just 356 00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:32,640 Speaker 3: a little bit there. I think Novah's got the juice 357 00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 3: for this game. In another big matchup on Wednesday, Wisconsin, 358 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 3: is that Illinois projected spread minus six in favor of 359 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:42,600 Speaker 3: the Alini. These two teams are tied right now, Man 360 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:45,400 Speaker 3: for the Big ten lead at eight and two. Huge, 361 00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:46,560 Speaker 3: huge game. 362 00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:48,800 Speaker 4: Who do you like, Jim, I'm torn. 363 00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:51,280 Speaker 1: I'm curious where you're standing on your buzz cut Badgers. 364 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 1: I think this Wisconsin frontline might be in for rut 365 00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 1: awakening against KOFE. As good as they've been, as much 366 00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:59,200 Speaker 1: as we like Wall and Crawl, I think KOFE is 367 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:02,320 Speaker 1: a different animal. Came right out of concussion protocol, looking 368 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:05,760 Speaker 1: like the old dominant self. Illinois has had some shooting 369 00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:08,200 Speaker 1: regression bite in the last couple of weeks. They're still 370 00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:09,679 Speaker 1: a good shooting team. I think this is maybe one 371 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 1: of those games that we saw earlier in the year 372 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:14,359 Speaker 1: where they may go thirteen for thirty from three, and 373 00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 1: then Kofe's doing his thing inside and it just looks 374 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:19,119 Speaker 1: like Illinois is the better team. And I mean all 375 00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:20,880 Speaker 1: comes down to how do you guard Johnny Davis? 376 00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:22,680 Speaker 4: Can you slow him down? That's the thing for Illinois. 377 00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 2: Yeah. You know who couldn't slow him down was Purdue. 378 00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:28,240 Speaker 2: For all their great front court dominant centers that should 379 00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:31,400 Speaker 2: have taken Krawl and Wall to school. They lost at 380 00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:36,200 Speaker 2: Purdue because Davis had thirty seven. And I think if 381 00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:40,840 Speaker 2: Brad Underwood's massive press conference rants or any indication he 382 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:43,760 Speaker 2: fully believes Trent Fraser can lock down Johnny Davis, he's 383 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:46,159 Speaker 2: basically making the case that he thinks Fraser should be 384 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 2: National Defensive Player of the Year because of the stat 385 00:17:49,040 --> 00:17:52,600 Speaker 2: lines that opposing guards put up when he's guarded by him. 386 00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:55,159 Speaker 2: This is the ultimate test. Davis can score in so 387 00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:57,399 Speaker 2: many different ways. He can score with the ball, he 388 00:17:57,400 --> 00:17:59,680 Speaker 2: can score without it. It's going to be a huge 389 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:03,159 Speaker 2: test for Fraser. I kind of think Wisconsin getting points. 390 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:06,200 Speaker 2: It's just a good situation for them, feisty dog MUCKs, 391 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:08,639 Speaker 2: the game up, has the go to guy late that 392 00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:11,400 Speaker 2: can get you a big shot. I actually would bet 393 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:13,960 Speaker 2: this is a little higher than six when the spread 394 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 2: actually comes out, and I will probably lean towards the Badgers. 395 00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, even more than six. I'm taking Wisconsin. I do 396 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:24,400 Speaker 3: think Illinois wins. I think they have a better matchup 397 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:27,320 Speaker 3: for Davis with Fraser, even with a different guy. I 398 00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:29,879 Speaker 3: think they better match than Purdue did. And I do 399 00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:33,480 Speaker 3: think Kobe will kill them inside. But Wisconsin it's a 400 00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:36,240 Speaker 3: very good team. And after going to the Cole Center 401 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:40,320 Speaker 3: and seeing how strong their chemistry is as a team 402 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:42,240 Speaker 3: and how together they are and how they kept harping 403 00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:43,800 Speaker 3: on that in the press conference, I really think this 404 00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:46,239 Speaker 3: is a good team with potential to win the Big 405 00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:46,960 Speaker 3: Ten for sure. 406 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:48,760 Speaker 1: It does kind of feel like a rally around the 407 00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:51,919 Speaker 1: Greg gard nonsense this offseason, like they've almost kind of 408 00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,520 Speaker 1: like they're like making a point to support that completely. 409 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:56,800 Speaker 1: I don't know, could be elbogus. Thursday is a huge 410 00:18:56,840 --> 00:19:00,240 Speaker 1: game as well. UCLA is heading to Arizona and the 411 00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 1: Bruins took down the Cats in game one. This one 412 00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:06,200 Speaker 1: is projected to be a five points spread. Jim, does 413 00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:07,680 Speaker 1: Arizona get revenge here? 414 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:11,520 Speaker 2: I do think they do because Kai watched the first 415 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 2: game and they were ice freaking cold, and UCLA definitely 416 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:18,920 Speaker 2: was a part of that making some of the shots difficult. 417 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 2: But you're not getting an zero for twenty Night combined 418 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:23,840 Speaker 2: from Kirk, Crisa and Dale and Terry. That's just not 419 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:27,119 Speaker 2: happening again. I'm sorry. That was hugely beneficial for the 420 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:30,479 Speaker 2: Bruins in this one. And also Hawkas is banged up. 421 00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 2: That's kind of a big deal for the Bruins. Jus 422 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:34,720 Speaker 2: Ang should be out of COVID protocol. He's supposed to 423 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 2: test out of it today, that's the expectation. But Hawke 424 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:40,000 Speaker 2: is also a little bit banged up. Arizona back home, 425 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:42,880 Speaker 2: I think, is a different animal. We saw Chrisa finally 426 00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 2: hit a shot the game after that Ucla game and 427 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:48,040 Speaker 2: he kissed the center court logo. He was so excited. 428 00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:52,040 Speaker 2: I think there's gonna be mega emotions going through McHale 429 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:55,440 Speaker 2: and the bare down Wildcats get it done. 430 00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:58,959 Speaker 1: Yeah, Kai, here's something for you. The spread closed that 431 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:02,680 Speaker 1: first matchup Arizona minus two and a half. So lets 432 00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:05,680 Speaker 1: the odds makers overreact drastically. I think they probably opened 433 00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 1: this close to a field goal Arizona favored back home. 434 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,719 Speaker 2: That's no, really, this would be Arizona minus like seven. 435 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:13,840 Speaker 2: If the other one was Arizona minus two and half 436 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:15,560 Speaker 2: on the road, this would be like Arizona minus seven. 437 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:15,880 Speaker 3: I'm sorry. 438 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:17,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I've gorit a Zona. I got fair people 439 00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:19,520 Speaker 1: bend to Arizona, not thee other around. You're right, Yeah, 440 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:22,240 Speaker 1: this will be a really high spread, probably too high 441 00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:23,920 Speaker 1: to honest, probably too high, I know, And I should 442 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:25,280 Speaker 1: take in the UCLA in the first one. That was 443 00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:27,680 Speaker 1: my whole points like, I think they're gonna probably skew 444 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:29,720 Speaker 1: it too high towards Arizona given the spot and the 445 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:32,080 Speaker 1: revenge and all that stuff. And just as people are 446 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:34,119 Speaker 1: really buying into this Arizona team and kind of forgetting 447 00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:36,760 Speaker 1: that UCLA is still really legit, I'm going to probably 448 00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:39,600 Speaker 1: reluctantly bet at UCLA and hope that Arizona doesn't go 449 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:41,840 Speaker 1: full nuclear, which they certainly can yea. 450 00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:44,119 Speaker 3: If they don't, they grab twenty one offensive rebounds in 451 00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:47,400 Speaker 3: the first matchup. So yeah, there's a lot of indications 452 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:50,720 Speaker 3: they might bounce back here Saturday as wild two for here, 453 00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:52,760 Speaker 3: Baylor's going to Kansas. Yeah, that's a little bit of 454 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:56,240 Speaker 3: a big game, isn't it. Kansas favored by one at 455 00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 3: fog Allen. According to Chimpoon, Baylor, of course having an 456 00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:02,760 Speaker 3: amazing year, but Baylor's kind of banged up. We've seen 457 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 3: Flagler out of lineup, seeing Crier out of the lineup. 458 00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:08,200 Speaker 3: Ken Jo might not be all the way back anyway 459 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:10,200 Speaker 3: in this one. Jim, I'm kind of. 460 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:12,920 Speaker 2: Down on both right now on a very relative basis. 461 00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:15,439 Speaker 2: I still think they're both top ten teams, but they're 462 00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:19,400 Speaker 2: in lulls in their season performance wise, where I don't 463 00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 2: think they have everything figured out because of some of 464 00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:24,360 Speaker 2: the rotational issues that they've got. And the key here 465 00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 2: could be a Baji's availability. He's out this week against 466 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:29,760 Speaker 2: Iowa State. We don't know how long he'll be in 467 00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:32,680 Speaker 2: COVID protocols. If he's out, you gotta go Baylor. But 468 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:35,520 Speaker 2: I think this will probably be Baylor by three or something. 469 00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:37,480 Speaker 2: If he's out, I think people realize the importance he 470 00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 2: has to the line. But if he's back in sort 471 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:43,560 Speaker 2: of leaning towards Kansas with the fog Allen magic Matthias, 472 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:46,320 Speaker 2: especially if it's basically a pick him game like this indicates. 473 00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:48,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, I just don't think kempn has this one right. 474 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:50,280 Speaker 1: I think Osmeger is going to shade this a lot 475 00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:53,439 Speaker 1: higher toward Ku. I would expected to open Kus three 476 00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,120 Speaker 1: mis four even Maybe that's too rich, but I think 477 00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:58,520 Speaker 1: the injury concerns for Baylor are well documented now and 478 00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:00,439 Speaker 1: I think that's probably the proper number. 479 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:02,200 Speaker 4: But that's all rendered mood. 480 00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:04,240 Speaker 1: As you mentioned Jim if Boggi's out, So that's the 481 00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:06,080 Speaker 1: key thing here, just to bar this game kind of 482 00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:10,960 Speaker 1: has been tarnished by the personnel warts unfortunately, and Remy Martin. 483 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,280 Speaker 4: Two not fully healthy. I think the Jayhawks need him. 484 00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:15,280 Speaker 3: Well, Matt, let's talk about the other matchup on Saturday 485 00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:17,640 Speaker 3: that you're probably looking forward to. It's do you get 486 00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:21,440 Speaker 3: North Carolina? It's round one of Coach K's final two 487 00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:27,640 Speaker 3: matchups in this storied rivalry. North Carolina three point dogs 488 00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:32,160 Speaker 3: at home per ken Pum. That's right, number one and two. 489 00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:35,800 Speaker 3: Do you think your Duchies can come into Oh my gosh, 490 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:40,399 Speaker 3: I'm blanking on North Carolina's ding the Dean Dome and 491 00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:42,040 Speaker 3: get a win over the targets. 492 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:44,760 Speaker 4: Yeah, and I think they do. I know, UNC is 493 00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:45,480 Speaker 4: a lot better home. 494 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:49,960 Speaker 1: They put out some just insane offensive performances in front 495 00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:51,399 Speaker 1: of their home fans. I mean, my guy, they just 496 00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:52,920 Speaker 1: hung a hundred on NC State. 497 00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:53,240 Speaker 2: Now. 498 00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:56,280 Speaker 1: NC State's defense does not hold a candle to Dukes, 499 00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:59,280 Speaker 1: which we just saw suffocate Notre Dame completely in a 500 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,159 Speaker 1: very charge job hype home spot for the Irish. That 501 00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:04,800 Speaker 1: to me was like a oh yeah, Duke's defense when 502 00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 1: locked in and engaged as all the way legit. We 503 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,200 Speaker 1: just haven't seen that consistently this year. And I got 504 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,960 Speaker 1: to think it's UNC going Crosstown and Coach K's last stand, 505 00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:14,199 Speaker 1: last trip to the ding Dong, as I call it 506 00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:16,800 Speaker 1: as a Duke fan, Sorry UNC fans, I think Duke 507 00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:20,040 Speaker 1: prevails here, not easily, but by a few possessions. I 508 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 1: think three is a cheap price. 509 00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,160 Speaker 2: I mean, I think Coach K's last trip there also 510 00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:27,840 Speaker 2: matters for you and c you know, and especially motivating 511 00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:31,040 Speaker 2: factor for them. They also don't have a great NCAA 512 00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:34,199 Speaker 2: tournament resume right now, and like every ACC team, if 513 00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:36,280 Speaker 2: you want to feel good on selection Sunday, you need 514 00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:38,920 Speaker 2: a win over Duke atop your resume, and I think 515 00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:41,800 Speaker 2: only Miami and who else has one of those? Matt 516 00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:42,240 Speaker 2: right now? 517 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:45,120 Speaker 4: Who else be Duke Florida State. 518 00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:50,000 Speaker 3: I'll look at it. I don't know answer. 519 00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:53,200 Speaker 2: So those two at least have the crown jewel a 520 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:57,000 Speaker 2: top the resume, but North Carolina certainly still needs it. 521 00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:01,280 Speaker 2: I do think Duke is just superior and we'll probably 522 00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:03,520 Speaker 2: get it done. But I will not be betting the 523 00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:05,880 Speaker 2: scheme because I think the line will probably be about 524 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,919 Speaker 2: right in North Carolina. Hyper motivated at home is at 525 00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 2: least a decent spot. 526 00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:13,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm probably taking you and see or at least 527 00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 3: leaning in their way. I think, I think what Yeah, 528 00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:16,800 Speaker 3: idiots biking. 529 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,680 Speaker 2: Guard love against Duke Matt. You have a couple of 530 00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:21,000 Speaker 2: memories of that from last year. 531 00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, No, not fun ones, not. 532 00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:25,360 Speaker 2: Fun combined for like fifty points in two games. 533 00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:26,359 Speaker 4: Not fun ones. 534 00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:28,520 Speaker 3: On next section, a mid major game of the week, 535 00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:30,879 Speaker 3: We're gonna hit two of these guys. Number one is 536 00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:35,399 Speaker 3: in the Colonial thousand. Is that Hofstra towsand is trying 537 00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:37,720 Speaker 3: to get the lead in this conference. They are the 538 00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:40,520 Speaker 3: best team per kimpom. But you didn't see Wilmenson refused 539 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:43,040 Speaker 3: to lose and they look good. They're top one hundred 540 00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:45,480 Speaker 3: right now in kim Pom. They show no signs of 541 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:50,960 Speaker 3: slowing down. But Hofstra is no slaps themselves. Matthew Lean's 542 00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:55,359 Speaker 3: in Hofstra versus thousand, their host. Hofstra's hosting thousand favored 543 00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:56,280 Speaker 3: by one per kimpomp. 544 00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:57,280 Speaker 4: Yeah. 545 00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:59,199 Speaker 1: I mean, I debate even putting this on the aline 546 00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:01,800 Speaker 1: because Hofstra's five and three in conference in tousand seven 547 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,159 Speaker 1: and two, while UNC Wilmington sets the top of the 548 00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:06,000 Speaker 1: total point at nine to zero. But I think these 549 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:08,360 Speaker 1: are the two best teams in the Colonial So this 550 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 1: is to me perhaps a precursor of what to see 551 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,480 Speaker 1: in the Colonial Championship potential date. 552 00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:13,960 Speaker 4: Down the road. 553 00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:16,919 Speaker 1: I tend to lean tousand just in general. I think 554 00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:20,399 Speaker 1: they're the slightly better team now home court. You have 555 00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:22,560 Speaker 1: to factor that, and it's probably why what is why 556 00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:24,400 Speaker 1: Hofster was going to probably be favored in this game 557 00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:25,200 Speaker 1: the gym. 558 00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:25,800 Speaker 4: I like tousand. 559 00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:27,720 Speaker 1: I think when fully healthy, they've been the best team 560 00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:30,920 Speaker 1: this season. When they were without Bradley in there, you 561 00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:35,240 Speaker 1: saw some cracks emerge, but no one sorry from Bradley, 562 00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:38,080 Speaker 1: Thank you Terry Nolan from Bradley. He's key and they 563 00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:39,720 Speaker 1: have plenty of weapons, but he is one of their 564 00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:41,000 Speaker 1: more indispensable ones. 565 00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:43,080 Speaker 2: And he hasn't been playing like It's not like he's 566 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:46,520 Speaker 2: back and healthy. That's the concern. If Hofster's minus one, 567 00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:48,640 Speaker 2: I'm betting them. Even if no one's in, I think 568 00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:52,320 Speaker 2: they're a little bit equals at least, so minus one 569 00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:55,040 Speaker 2: basically picking game, I think the equal and home court 570 00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,960 Speaker 2: maybe even Hofstra a little bit better when they're full strength. 571 00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:02,160 Speaker 2: I would be taking the pride there. Towson. I respect them. 572 00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:04,520 Speaker 2: I think they're second or third best team in this league, 573 00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:08,040 Speaker 2: but they've also had some really really excellent shot making 574 00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:12,120 Speaker 2: throughout their season so far from Gibston and Timberlake. So 575 00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:14,120 Speaker 2: I would be towards the pride in this one guy. 576 00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:17,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm leaving Hofstra to taisand won the first game 577 00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:20,480 Speaker 3: by twelve, but they hit sixteen threes. Hawstra had eight 578 00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:23,640 Speaker 3: no cooks in that game. No Nolan Aaron Strada Man 579 00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:26,120 Speaker 3: is a guy for Hofstra that I did not realize 580 00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:28,960 Speaker 3: is killing it this year. Leads the conference and usage. 581 00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:32,399 Speaker 3: He former Saint Peter's and Oregon guy. He's not his 582 00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,360 Speaker 3: level at Hawstra. He's doing very very well. Last game 583 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:40,080 Speaker 3: on Friday, San Diego State at Colorado State. Man, after 584 00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:42,560 Speaker 3: that loss to Wyoming, Colorado State could use this game 585 00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:45,560 Speaker 3: to stay in the tournament. Conversation, I still think they're there, 586 00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:47,400 Speaker 3: but could really use it as well. 587 00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:48,120 Speaker 2: San Diego State. 588 00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:50,560 Speaker 3: I suppose Jim could use this win as well. Mountain 589 00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,879 Speaker 3: West is no picnic, but these two teams are awesome. 590 00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:54,240 Speaker 1: This year. 591 00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:57,400 Speaker 2: Colorado State has not gotten to host San Diego State 592 00:26:57,400 --> 00:26:59,360 Speaker 2: in a while. They had to play twice at BAHAs 593 00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:02,480 Speaker 2: last year. We've already lost by forty at Vajas. This year, 594 00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:06,320 Speaker 2: I think we see an absolutely nuclear crowd. Like the 595 00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:08,880 Speaker 2: crowd is going to be all over this game. Yep. 596 00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:13,440 Speaker 2: Colorado State also coming off a loss short spread here, Matt, 597 00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:15,439 Speaker 2: It's going to be hard for me to talk myself 598 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:16,920 Speaker 2: out of being on the rams. 599 00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:17,640 Speaker 4: In this one, right. 600 00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:20,320 Speaker 1: I think Colorado State's recent struggles they've lost too straight 601 00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:25,520 Speaker 1: and San Dieo State's recent demolition blowout wins have created 602 00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:28,600 Speaker 1: the perfect spot to actually bet the Rams at a 603 00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:31,280 Speaker 1: fairly cheap and affordable price. And what should be your right, 604 00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:35,760 Speaker 1: just an awesome home crowd the all time most desperate spots, 605 00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:38,879 Speaker 1: Although at some point I have to worry about the 606 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,760 Speaker 1: defense of concerns for the Rams. That's two straight games 607 00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:43,920 Speaker 1: where they've, like guys, completely cooked them in and around 608 00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:47,119 Speaker 1: the paint. I worry that might be a deeper systemic 609 00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:51,000 Speaker 1: thing that just may not be corrected by even a yeah, 610 00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:53,200 Speaker 1: we're all hyped to be here. What an awesome home spot. 611 00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,240 Speaker 1: This is type situation, guys. So that's my one conserve 612 00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:56,879 Speaker 1: with the Rams. I will be betting the most likely. I 613 00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:58,639 Speaker 1: bet this opens for or less. 614 00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:01,320 Speaker 2: Curious if we this will be part of our Friday 615 00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:03,280 Speaker 2: six pack. Those those picks will be coming on that 616 00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:05,960 Speaker 2: Friday edition of Big Bets on Campus. Chance one of 617 00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:07,560 Speaker 2: us will be firing up the Rams. 618 00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:09,520 Speaker 3: There DIBs on Rams calling it out. I can't see 619 00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:12,240 Speaker 3: this being over three. I mean they might keep bet 620 00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:12,920 Speaker 3: up past there. 621 00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:15,520 Speaker 4: I think a little bit. Hey, my point is even 622 00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:17,160 Speaker 4: a four take it. Don't be scared of that money. 623 00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:20,080 Speaker 4: I don't know if that's hard's been there not in there. 624 00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:22,200 Speaker 3: Trash man pick of the week. 625 00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:24,160 Speaker 1: The trash man pick of the week. 626 00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:25,800 Speaker 3: I'm the trash man. 627 00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:29,359 Speaker 1: Just throw me the trash, your garbage, and you know it, 628 00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:31,680 Speaker 1: totally unreliable, undependable. 629 00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:33,560 Speaker 2: That's it. You've been told off how do you like that? 630 00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:34,160 Speaker 1: Good? 631 00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:36,600 Speaker 3: And actually the Big West is good Canada for this 632 00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:40,480 Speaker 3: every single week because the Big West ranks thirty first 633 00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:43,240 Speaker 3: in efficiency in the country, which is second to last, 634 00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 3: and thirty first in tempo, which is second to last. 635 00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:49,400 Speaker 3: So basically everyone in the Big West plays slow and 636 00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:50,920 Speaker 3: they are not very good at offense. 637 00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:52,480 Speaker 2: If you're in the East Coast, you don't need to 638 00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:54,640 Speaker 2: stay up late for these games. Watch watch the Western 639 00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:55,640 Speaker 2: Conference instead. 640 00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:58,880 Speaker 3: And one of the ugliest teams in college basketball, cal 641 00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:01,720 Speaker 3: State Bakersfield, is heading to Kelsey Fullerton, a team has 642 00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:03,920 Speaker 3: actually been incredibly good this year. They just lost their 643 00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:07,920 Speaker 3: first conference game on Saturday to Riverside. But this game 644 00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:10,640 Speaker 3: is going to be a slog. It's going to be ugly. Matt, 645 00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:12,440 Speaker 3: should you watch this game? S did you bet on 646 00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:15,280 Speaker 3: this game? We know it's a trash game, but your thoughts. 647 00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,680 Speaker 1: I really have had a It's been a very saga 648 00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:22,680 Speaker 1: type year with me and Bakersfield. I really liked the 649 00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:25,880 Speaker 1: Runners coming into the year, and then it looked terrible, 650 00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:28,160 Speaker 1: and then I watched two of their games. I'm just like, 651 00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:31,160 Speaker 1: why is Rod Barnes ignoring everything we've learned about modern basketball, 652 00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:35,560 Speaker 1: like space and pace and shooting. They recently lost Sean 653 00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,640 Speaker 1: Williams to the transfer portal. I think he was a 654 00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:42,280 Speaker 1: ewing theory candidate. They've played better without him, but Jim 655 00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:45,160 Speaker 1: Kay's right, Fullerton's been awesome. I think they probably win 656 00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:47,680 Speaker 1: fairly easily. It's just going to be such a hard 657 00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:50,160 Speaker 1: game to blow out a team like Bakersfield, which is 658 00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:51,000 Speaker 1: why it's a trash Man. 659 00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:51,800 Speaker 4: Pick of the Week candidate. 660 00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,640 Speaker 2: I'm surprised that this is projected for as many as 661 00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:56,120 Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty two points. 662 00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:57,960 Speaker 4: Feels high, right, Like, I like the under just off 663 00:29:58,000 --> 00:29:58,560 Speaker 4: that projection. 664 00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 2: I agree, Yeah, this feels like a one twenties game 665 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,960 Speaker 2: to me. I would probably be under, as is kind 666 00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:05,720 Speaker 2: of tradition in the trash Man Pick of the Week. 667 00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:09,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, matt Rod Barnes really turn about the clock on basketball. 668 00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:12,320 Speaker 3: Per hoot math, Bakersfield is fourth in the country in 669 00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:15,080 Speaker 3: a field goal percent field goal a ten percentage from 670 00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:19,280 Speaker 3: two point jumpers. They love vettering jumps, second second of 671 00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:21,760 Speaker 3: the country in that fourth to last and three point 672 00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:25,520 Speaker 3: percentage attempts. So basically they take not many threes and 673 00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:28,000 Speaker 3: take a lot of two point jumpers. Not good, not good. 674 00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:31,360 Speaker 3: Last section, guys, we're doing a spotlight and we will 675 00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:35,080 Speaker 3: spotlight on conference trends. Now, I'm gonna hand the mike 676 00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:36,680 Speaker 3: to my buddy Matt, because he's done a lot of 677 00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:41,080 Speaker 3: home court advantage observations this year that in conference play, 678 00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:44,200 Speaker 3: who's looking good from a home court value perspective and 679 00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:46,959 Speaker 3: who's looking not so good? Some surprises in here, by 680 00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:48,600 Speaker 3: the way, at the study I was I was shocked 681 00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:49,520 Speaker 3: by a couple of findings. 682 00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:53,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, and again these are largely team dependent. Obviously, the 683 00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:56,840 Speaker 1: teams make up a conference, so there's gonna be some 684 00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:59,560 Speaker 1: some variance within each league. But in general, I think 685 00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,840 Speaker 1: you found that we are finding that some of the 686 00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:06,560 Speaker 1: usual suspects will have very strong home courts. Notably, the 687 00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:09,600 Speaker 1: SEC is one that seems to be the strongest home 688 00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:12,040 Speaker 1: court so far, and that's both from non con into 689 00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:15,040 Speaker 1: conference play. But a lot of conferences, like the Big 690 00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,160 Speaker 1: Ten and some of the like PAC twelve really have 691 00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:19,960 Speaker 1: not been, as you know, four or five points the 692 00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:22,480 Speaker 1: heavy home courts we've seen in years past. What I 693 00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:26,280 Speaker 1: was surprised by is Conference USA and the SWACK all 694 00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:29,000 Speaker 1: have an average cover margin or both have an average 695 00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:31,000 Speaker 1: cover margin of one point five points per fe game. 696 00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:33,400 Speaker 1: For home teams that's through a pretty hearty sampled at 697 00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:35,560 Speaker 1: this point in the season. I'm not sure why this is, 698 00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:37,960 Speaker 1: and I guess those are pretty large geographic conferences, so 699 00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:40,880 Speaker 1: it makes sense that travel would be difficult, but we 700 00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:43,360 Speaker 1: just haven't seen those conferences have like massive home courts 701 00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:45,920 Speaker 1: in years past. So when you go into the Swack, 702 00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:48,400 Speaker 1: MANU baby, be ready for a war. When you go 703 00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,800 Speaker 1: to Cusaven, you be ready for a war. 704 00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:54,840 Speaker 3: I'm not shocked by conference, you to say, because it 705 00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:57,680 Speaker 3: feels more geographically dispersed at least a little bit. But 706 00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:01,280 Speaker 3: in the Swack, actually there's not a whole lot of 707 00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:05,200 Speaker 3: budgets in those leagues for teams. They're not flying first 708 00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:08,440 Speaker 3: class anywhere, taken a lot of buses flying you know, commercial, 709 00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:12,000 Speaker 3: So I'm not really shocked that travel sucks in that 710 00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:12,720 Speaker 3: league as well. 711 00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:14,840 Speaker 1: I think this shocking thing for me was a lot 712 00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:16,840 Speaker 1: of the West Coast conferences high which we tend to 713 00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:21,520 Speaker 1: think of more grueling travel situations. Take this for example, 714 00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:24,000 Speaker 1: the big Sky home teams are fifteen and thirty six. 715 00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:28,640 Speaker 1: That makes no senense, so just like, don't make I 716 00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,520 Speaker 1: don't understand that at all. There's also been erosion of 717 00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:33,760 Speaker 1: home court advantage in the Mountain West. The PAC twelve 718 00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:37,200 Speaker 1: WCC all with pretty strong negative cover margins so far 719 00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:38,080 Speaker 1: for home teams. 720 00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:39,920 Speaker 4: I can't explain that, Jim. 721 00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:43,360 Speaker 1: The one maybe anecdote I would add, is more likely 722 00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,680 Speaker 1: to have fewer fans. I know, a lot of the 723 00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:47,840 Speaker 1: what compared to like the SEC which have full crowds. 724 00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:49,800 Speaker 1: The ivs we know have been well documented, but also 725 00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:51,840 Speaker 1: a lot of the PAC twelve schools WCC schools have 726 00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:54,600 Speaker 1: been very cautious with the lining fans back. Maybe that's 727 00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:56,120 Speaker 1: a part of it, but I still always felt like 728 00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,280 Speaker 1: travel is the main reason why these schools had such 729 00:32:58,360 --> 00:32:59,959 Speaker 1: large home courts, not the case this year. 730 00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:04,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, that doesn't seem to be bothering them. Maybe as 731 00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:07,080 Speaker 2: the season extends and it becomes more of a wear 732 00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:10,000 Speaker 2: and tear grind you get into, like the doldrums of February, 733 00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:12,600 Speaker 2: you see home court play up a little bit. I 734 00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:15,200 Speaker 2: can understand why maybe it's not as big early when 735 00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:18,680 Speaker 2: it's still fresh conference play. We're kind of equals here. 736 00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:22,200 Speaker 2: There's no extended wear and tear, like I said, of 737 00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:24,840 Speaker 2: the season, so I'm curious to see if that corrects 738 00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:27,160 Speaker 2: a little bit, or or if it continues to not 739 00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:28,840 Speaker 2: be an advantage really at all. 740 00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:30,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, and just back to the Big Ten, Big twelve, 741 00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:33,400 Speaker 1: two conferences, I think we feel like have strong home courts, 742 00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:35,680 Speaker 1: not to say they have not been strong, but they're 743 00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:38,800 Speaker 1: being I guess priced effectively by the market. Big ten 744 00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:41,560 Speaker 1: is thirty five and thirty home teams are against the spread, 745 00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:45,000 Speaker 1: Big twelve seventeen and twenty one, so close to five 746 00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:45,400 Speaker 1: hundred there. 747 00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:47,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, I would I think the Big Ten would be bigger, 748 00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:49,520 Speaker 3: just anecdotally, always seems like their home courts play better. 749 00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:51,280 Speaker 3: I can tell you one thing though Maryland is part 750 00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:53,520 Speaker 3: of that. They're three and ten against the spread. Take 751 00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:57,239 Speaker 3: them out that home court oxactly. But you said it's 752 00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,680 Speaker 3: a team by team basis, you know, can't draw conclusions 753 00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:00,920 Speaker 3: over the entire thing. 754 00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:02,520 Speaker 1: That's what's a good point though. I mean, you take 755 00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:05,320 Speaker 1: out Maryland, that kind of booies the overall general consensus 756 00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:08,080 Speaker 1: of the Big Tens home court. So you got to 757 00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:12,000 Speaker 1: be able to look for those outliers. Let's talk totals 758 00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:14,600 Speaker 1: real quick here, Kai, Yeah, quick. I actually did a 759 00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,960 Speaker 1: few things. I wrote down the over under records by conferences, 760 00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:21,080 Speaker 1: and now this is sort of a you're kind of 761 00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,439 Speaker 1: generalizing here across many different types of teams that played 762 00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:25,240 Speaker 1: very differently. But I do think there are some themes 763 00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:29,719 Speaker 1: within conferences that tend to manifest in some trends. The 764 00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:31,600 Speaker 1: one that always jumps out to me is the Summit 765 00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:34,800 Speaker 1: and a team that we think of as being allergic 766 00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:38,520 Speaker 1: to playing defense, wrote I think is allergic to playing yes, 767 00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:40,919 Speaker 1: with many teams that just sort of shun that side 768 00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,800 Speaker 1: of the ball. I wrote this offseason for Action about 769 00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:46,640 Speaker 1: how auto betting someone overs would be a profitable endeavor, 770 00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:49,640 Speaker 1: and so far this year twenty eight and twenty one 771 00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:52,920 Speaker 1: to the over going over the total by four points 772 00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:55,759 Speaker 1: a game. Just bet overs in the Summit. Guys, even 773 00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:58,160 Speaker 1: you m Case's running this year and not playing great defense. 774 00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:01,040 Speaker 1: So in general, I just think teams all enter this 775 00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:03,000 Speaker 1: handshake agreement that we're all going to run, we're all 776 00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:05,800 Speaker 1: gonna shoot, and defense will be. 777 00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:07,359 Speaker 4: On the back burner, and that's how it plays out. 778 00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:09,680 Speaker 3: In fact, the most sufficient conference in the country, so 779 00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:11,920 Speaker 3: best offense for sentence, they're. 780 00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:13,960 Speaker 4: Always number one free throw percentage too, So they just 781 00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:14,440 Speaker 4: trained for. 782 00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:17,480 Speaker 2: Shooting, and there's always shooting, and there's not a ton 783 00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:20,120 Speaker 2: of athleticism. It's kind of like sort of the recruiting 784 00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:23,600 Speaker 2: ground that they're they're working on and that's why the 785 00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:26,799 Speaker 2: offense is Yeah, they run their efficient it's it's fun 786 00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:29,600 Speaker 2: basketball to watch and fun to bet on overs. 787 00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:30,720 Speaker 4: Here's a shocker. 788 00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:35,600 Speaker 1: When you think Missouri Valley Conference, you think lunch pale, 789 00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:42,000 Speaker 1: half court screens, defense, rebounding overs twenty eight and fifteen 790 00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:45,520 Speaker 1: going over by two point eight points per game. There 791 00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:47,480 Speaker 1: is an offensive renaissance in this league. You look at 792 00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:49,719 Speaker 1: teams like Bradley starting to kind of like loosen up 793 00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:53,760 Speaker 1: their offense, Northern Iowa, Ben Jacobson's loosen up his offense, Loyola, 794 00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:56,439 Speaker 1: even Valentine. They're not running, but they're not playing as 795 00:35:56,920 --> 00:36:00,200 Speaker 1: deliberately as we saw in years past. Something that keep 796 00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:03,160 Speaker 1: an eye on there as well. I think the identity, 797 00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:06,120 Speaker 1: our perception of that conference is slowly changing this year. Yeah, 798 00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:08,160 Speaker 1: you got me five teams in the top one hundred. 799 00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:12,280 Speaker 1: Efficiency offensively and scoring efficially helps with over here tempo. 800 00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:17,400 Speaker 2: There's still thirty second in tempo as Southern and Loyola 801 00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,440 Speaker 2: has played a lot slower in league play, and Evansville 802 00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:24,399 Speaker 2: super super slow teams, but the efficiency has certainly risen there. 803 00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:28,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's definitely counteracted that. A couple other of notable 804 00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:32,120 Speaker 1: records here. Big Sky overs are thirty and nineteen, whackovers 805 00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:38,000 Speaker 1: are thirty one and twenty four. WCC also trending toward overs. Conversely, 806 00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:39,680 Speaker 1: owners who's. 807 00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:42,320 Speaker 3: Not the Big West as we just mentioned, the efficiency 808 00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:44,719 Speaker 3: is gross. I think it's a Brown thirty two and 809 00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:46,560 Speaker 3: forty four something like that. I did try to do 810 00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:49,080 Speaker 3: some quick math, but yeah, very very low. 811 00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:50,759 Speaker 2: H Yeah, not good. 812 00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:55,320 Speaker 1: Also good underleagues A ten, Mountain West and Patriot. The 813 00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:57,040 Speaker 1: A ten jumped out to me. I think that makes sense. 814 00:36:57,040 --> 00:37:01,160 Speaker 1: I'm looking at like Dayton and VCU road out to 815 00:37:01,280 --> 00:37:04,000 Speaker 1: Rode Island. My god, just to completely comm to one 816 00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:07,200 Speaker 1: side of the ball, and when those two teams, like 817 00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:10,320 Speaker 1: those like minded teams meet, it can really get ugly. 818 00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:13,000 Speaker 1: Like I think what the Dayton versus Rhode Island game 819 00:37:13,040 --> 00:37:15,560 Speaker 1: at Dayton was like the perfect micro cost where it's like, oh, 820 00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:17,960 Speaker 1: you can't score, I can't score. It's going to look 821 00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:21,400 Speaker 1: exponentially worse than it should just adding those two together. 822 00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:23,319 Speaker 2: And for some reason they're both like we're not going 823 00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:25,480 Speaker 2: to try to run and score. We want to walk 824 00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:27,799 Speaker 2: it up. Yeah, have a bad possession, and then you 825 00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:29,560 Speaker 2: can do the same things you want to do. 826 00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:31,400 Speaker 4: What we do poorly against what you do really well, 827 00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:32,680 Speaker 4: we'll just see who wins out. 828 00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:34,279 Speaker 1: And that's how they were kind. That's all I got 829 00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:36,120 Speaker 1: from little macro scam. I'll try and dig up some 830 00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:36,480 Speaker 1: of those. 831 00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:40,000 Speaker 3: That's nice, a fun session. Well, thanks everyone for joining 832 00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:42,600 Speaker 3: us for another episode of the Big Bets on Campus 833 00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:45,520 Speaker 3: Podcast or reminder to please rate and review our show 834 00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:48,520 Speaker 3: on Apple Podcasts, listen to us on Spotify, and we 835 00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:51,640 Speaker 3: will see you next Wednesday morning on The Big Bets 836 00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:52,759 Speaker 3: on Campus Podcast