1
00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:02,559
Speaker 1: So we asked y'all on Twitter if you were tired

2
00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:05,720
Speaker 1: of hearing about the coronavirus, and some of y'all said yes,

3
00:00:06,480 --> 00:00:08,360
Speaker 1: and some of y'all said no.

4
00:00:09,080 --> 00:00:10,959
Speaker 2: We're going to talk a little bit about coronavirus, but

5
00:00:11,400 --> 00:00:12,320
Speaker 2: not directly.

6
00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,520
Speaker 1: I mean, honestly, no matter what we talk about, it's

7
00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:21,080
Speaker 1: impossible to escape this pandemic that's going on all around us.

8
00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:23,759
Speaker 3: Like that is our backdrop. We can't not.

9
00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:26,000
Speaker 1: Talk about the pandemic, but we can talk about things

10
00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:28,440
Speaker 1: that are kind of like Corona adjacent.

11
00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:32,159
Speaker 2: If the health crisis and the economic crisis run enough

12
00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:35,720
Speaker 2: for you. We're also facing a housing crisis and that's

13
00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:40,400
Speaker 2: a result of COVID nineteen, of this pandemic. I'm TT

14
00:00:40,680 --> 00:01:06,720
Speaker 2: and I'm Zachiah and from Spotify. This is Dope Labs.

15
00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:11,479
Speaker 2: So I was watching on Twitter where some folks were

16
00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:16,280
Speaker 2: protesting in New Orleans and they were physically blocking a

17
00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:20,399
Speaker 2: landlord from submitting eviction papers for one of the tenants.

18
00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:21,960
Speaker 3: I just can't believe this.

19
00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:25,160
Speaker 1: Every day I wake up and there's a new headline,

20
00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:28,560
Speaker 1: there's something else that the pandemic is affecting, And I'm

21
00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:29,759
Speaker 1: just like, how.

22
00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:32,319
Speaker 3: Much more can we take this? Is crazy.

23
00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:36,319
Speaker 2: One of the latest headlines I saw was that by

24
00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:40,080
Speaker 2: the end of September or October, we're expecting almost forty

25
00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:45,600
Speaker 2: million Americans to be evicted or be in danger of eviction.

26
00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:49,280
Speaker 1: That is a huge chunk of people. And I feel

27
00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:51,360
Speaker 1: like we aren't talking about this enough.

28
00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:53,240
Speaker 2: It's definitely not getting enough light.

29
00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:56,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, especially with the election season coming upon us,

30
00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:58,480
Speaker 1: we need to know what we need to be asking

31
00:01:58,520 --> 00:01:59,800
Speaker 1: these politicians for.

32
00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:03,080
Speaker 2: Yes, what's the plan. Let's get into the recitation.

33
00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:06,880
Speaker 3: So what do we know?

34
00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:09,839
Speaker 2: I mean, we know that the coronavirus spread has put

35
00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:12,920
Speaker 2: folks in a tough situation. People are losing their jobs,

36
00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:14,840
Speaker 2: so they don't have a lot of money to pay

37
00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:15,959
Speaker 2: their rent or mortgage.

38
00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:18,000
Speaker 1: I think another thing that we know is that the

39
00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:21,960
Speaker 1: unemployment rate is really really high right now, like it

40
00:02:22,040 --> 00:02:25,480
Speaker 1: reached record levels. I don't know if you remember back

41
00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:28,880
Speaker 1: a few months ago, there was that long car line

42
00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:32,120
Speaker 1: of people just trying to get food.

43
00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:35,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, food banks. People were lining up at food banks,

44
00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:37,400
Speaker 2: and the food banks were running out of food and

45
00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:39,680
Speaker 2: there were just so many people lined up and it.

46
00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:44,359
Speaker 1: Was like miles of cars. And it's because people were

47
00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:48,000
Speaker 1: losing their jobs and didn't have a way to make money,

48
00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:49,960
Speaker 1: so that everybody was lining up trying to get some

49
00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:50,640
Speaker 1: type of help.

50
00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:52,520
Speaker 2: I think the other thing that we know is, even

51
00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:55,880
Speaker 2: pre Corona, the United States suffered from a housing deficit.

52
00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:59,440
Speaker 2: So there are many states where there are more families

53
00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:02,840
Speaker 2: in need of housing than there are available housing units.

54
00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:03,359
Speaker 3: Wow.

55
00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:05,639
Speaker 2: And so when you take those things together.

56
00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:06,960
Speaker 3: This isn't a new problem.

57
00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:10,000
Speaker 2: This is just a problem magnified, right.

58
00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:12,320
Speaker 1: And I also feel like we know that this is

59
00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:17,320
Speaker 1: not over. We're not getting out of this whole situation

60
00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:22,320
Speaker 1: with social distancing and quarantining and all that. For a while,

61
00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:24,680
Speaker 1: it looks like, yeah, so what do we want to know?

62
00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:26,840
Speaker 2: Well, I think we want to know how this housing

63
00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:28,760
Speaker 2: crisis came about. How do we get to the point

64
00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,840
Speaker 2: where forty million people are in jeopardy?

65
00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:32,440
Speaker 3: Right?

66
00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:36,160
Speaker 1: I want to know specific things that went down, like

67
00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:38,640
Speaker 1: a timeline to get us to where we are right now.

68
00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:41,320
Speaker 2: And I know it's in some way tied to the recession.

69
00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:44,000
Speaker 2: And we've had a housing recession, you know, we've had

70
00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:47,200
Speaker 2: that type of market collapse in the past. Is this

71
00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:49,600
Speaker 2: the same as that? And if we know it's the same,

72
00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:51,040
Speaker 2: when is it going to be over? How can we

73
00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:52,480
Speaker 2: fix it or is it different?

74
00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:56,320
Speaker 1: And I want to know these forty million people. Who

75
00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:59,400
Speaker 1: are they? Who is most likely to be in that

76
00:03:59,440 --> 00:03:59,960
Speaker 1: forty million?

77
00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:02,960
Speaker 2: And if you are housing insecure or in danger of

78
00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:06,960
Speaker 2: losing your home, what are your options. Let's get some answers.

79
00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:08,280
Speaker 2: Let's jump into the dissection.

80
00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:10,920
Speaker 3: Our guest for this lab is Michael O'Neil.

81
00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:14,840
Speaker 4: My name is Michael Neil. I am a senior research

82
00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:18,480
Speaker 4: associate in the Housing Finance Policy Center here at the

83
00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:19,359
Speaker 4: Urban Institute.

84
00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:23,440
Speaker 2: Michael's career in economics, finance, and policy has spanned the

85
00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:27,719
Speaker 2: last twenty years, and he's worked on Wall Street, Capitol Hill,

86
00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:31,599
Speaker 2: and the Federal Reserve. More recently, his focus has moved

87
00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:34,360
Speaker 2: to housing and he spent time at the National Association

88
00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:37,880
Speaker 2: of home Builders and Fannie May. He's the perfect expert

89
00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:39,240
Speaker 2: for this episode.

90
00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:41,839
Speaker 1: Michael's day to day is really a mixture of a

91
00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:45,560
Speaker 1: lot of different things. There's engagement with press and media,

92
00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:48,200
Speaker 1: so he's doing interviews just like this one, where he

93
00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:51,960
Speaker 1: tries to communicate economic concepts in ways that are easy

94
00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:55,440
Speaker 1: for people to understand. He's also doing a lot of

95
00:04:55,560 --> 00:05:00,280
Speaker 1: data analysis where he's running statistical programs, checking results and

96
00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:03,400
Speaker 1: reporting those results. But there's a third piece, and that

97
00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:05,680
Speaker 1: part of his job is what we wanted to focus

98
00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:06,600
Speaker 1: on today.

99
00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:10,279
Speaker 4: Which is how do you engage with people on the

100
00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:13,599
Speaker 4: ground who are actually making the economic decisions. And I

101
00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:15,520
Speaker 4: think that's a key part of this that you know,

102
00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,359
Speaker 4: whether you're talking to homebuilders, or you're talking to home buyers,

103
00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:21,320
Speaker 4: or you're talking to anyone who's making any kind of

104
00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:24,560
Speaker 4: decision on how they're going to allocate their resources, you

105
00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:26,799
Speaker 4: know that has implications for the economy.

106
00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:30,359
Speaker 2: We're all trying to make better, more informed decisions to

107
00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:34,520
Speaker 2: navigate our current crisis, right and that starts with a

108
00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:37,880
Speaker 2: good foundational understanding of what's going on. So let's just

109
00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:41,840
Speaker 2: start with the basics. Economics is really just understanding how

110
00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:45,120
Speaker 2: resources are dispersed and used.

111
00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:47,919
Speaker 1: And when you think about those resources, there are a

112
00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:54,720
Speaker 1: lot of different sectors of the economy housing, financial markets, energy, agriculture.

113
00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:57,440
Speaker 1: But for today's lab like we said, we're going to

114
00:05:57,520 --> 00:05:59,120
Speaker 1: focus only on housing.

115
00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:01,880
Speaker 2: Let's just boom out and take a bird's eye view

116
00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:03,960
Speaker 2: of what's happening right now.

117
00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:06,479
Speaker 1: So we're in the middle of a pandemic and folks

118
00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:10,360
Speaker 1: are losing their homes. The economy is suffering, and that

119
00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:13,320
Speaker 1: means that people don't have the means to pay for housing.

120
00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:18,120
Speaker 2: These estimates of housing insecurity are changing month to month.

121
00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:20,680
Speaker 2: They're just going up and up. In June, it was

122
00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:23,719
Speaker 2: estimated that anywhere from nineteen to twenty three million people

123
00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:28,080
Speaker 2: could be evicted. In August, it was just changed to

124
00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:31,160
Speaker 2: thirty to forty million. That is a big jump.

125
00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:33,440
Speaker 3: Huge jump in just a couple of months.

126
00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:37,039
Speaker 2: And if that estimate is right, that's about ten percent

127
00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:37,800
Speaker 2: of Americans.

128
00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:41,680
Speaker 1: And the Aspen Institute predicts that one in five Americans

129
00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:44,919
Speaker 1: that are renting their homes are at risk of eviction

130
00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:49,120
Speaker 1: by the end of September. Now that we understand this,

131
00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:53,120
Speaker 1: who is affected the most? So we know that the

132
00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:56,679
Speaker 1: rental market is disproportionately impacted by this.

133
00:06:56,720 --> 00:07:00,720
Speaker 4: In part because COVID's impact on the word labor market

134
00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:05,960
Speaker 4: was disproportionately impacted Renters, people who work in industries like

135
00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:10,480
Speaker 4: accommodation services, like the retail sector that all that typically

136
00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:13,440
Speaker 4: tend to be renters as opposed to being homeowners.

137
00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:15,880
Speaker 2: And even if you aren't renting, it doesn't mean that

138
00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:17,160
Speaker 2: you're totally in the clear.

139
00:07:17,280 --> 00:07:19,840
Speaker 4: On the homeowner side. There's some evidence to suggest that

140
00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:24,760
Speaker 4: it's those with lower credit scores, those with higher debt

141
00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:28,240
Speaker 4: to income ratios, those with kind of more modest credit

142
00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:31,600
Speaker 4: profiles who are more likely to be impacted, in part

143
00:07:31,640 --> 00:07:35,760
Speaker 4: because they may work in uh IN in those industries

144
00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:36,720
Speaker 4: that were hardest.

145
00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:38,920
Speaker 1: Had and Michael points out that there are two other

146
00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:40,680
Speaker 1: groups of people that have been affected.

147
00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:45,720
Speaker 4: Second, certainly lower income people, given the industries that have

148
00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:51,760
Speaker 4: been disproportionally impacted. Number three, people of color, African Americans.

149
00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:55,960
Speaker 4: Hispanics have been disproportionately impacted for African for African Americans,

150
00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:59,520
Speaker 4: both in terms of their health as well as their economics.

151
00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:02,760
Speaker 2: So let's try to understand how COVID is wreaking so

152
00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:06,880
Speaker 2: much havoc on the economy and the housing market Specifically.

153
00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:11,040
Speaker 1: History is the great teacher and it can also give

154
00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:11,920
Speaker 1: us some context.

155
00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:14,040
Speaker 2: So let's turn back the clock to two thousand and

156
00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:15,160
Speaker 2: eight and a Great recession.

157
00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:17,640
Speaker 1: And if you're listening to this, you were probably alive

158
00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:22,240
Speaker 1: during the Great Recession, and remember how awful it was.

159
00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:27,200
Speaker 2: A recession is defined as a significant decline in economic activity.

160
00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:29,560
Speaker 1: And a recession can be triggered by a lot of

161
00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:35,640
Speaker 1: different things. A financial crisis, an economic bubble bursting, large

162
00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:39,840
Speaker 1: scale natural disaster or even a pandemic.

163
00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:42,240
Speaker 2: In the Great Recession, which was from two thousand and

164
00:08:42,280 --> 00:08:44,720
Speaker 2: seven to two thousand and nine, real GDP.

165
00:08:44,800 --> 00:08:47,920
Speaker 1: That's gross domestic product, and that is a number that

166
00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:50,720
Speaker 1: determines the economic health of a country.

167
00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:53,560
Speaker 2: It fell four point three percent from its peak in

168
00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:56,319
Speaker 2: two thousand and seven. This was the largest decline in

169
00:08:56,360 --> 00:09:00,000
Speaker 2: the post war era. The unemployment rate, which was five

170
00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:03,360
Speaker 2: percent in December two thousand and seven, peaked at ten

171
00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:05,480
Speaker 2: percent in October two thousand and nine.

172
00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:08,040
Speaker 4: For some people, there was a sense after the Great

173
00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:11,959
Speaker 4: Recession that that was roughly about as bad as things

174
00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:12,640
Speaker 4: could ever get.

175
00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:14,319
Speaker 3: But that's not true.

176
00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:17,800
Speaker 4: This recession has eclipsed that. When we look at what

177
00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:22,840
Speaker 4: we call the macroeconomic variables, things like GDP, unemployment, the

178
00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:26,800
Speaker 4: unemployment rate you know, peaking to fifteen percent GDP declining

179
00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:31,960
Speaker 4: on an annuary basis by thirty three percent, just numbers

180
00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:34,040
Speaker 4: that are incredible.

181
00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:34,880
Speaker 3: Do y'all hear that.

182
00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:38,920
Speaker 1: If you were alive during the Great Recession and you

183
00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:43,280
Speaker 1: remember how crazy that was, this is a lot worse.

184
00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:47,200
Speaker 2: And this is also different in terms of why it happened.

185
00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:50,720
Speaker 2: In two thousand and eight, it was irresponsible lending, and

186
00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:52,880
Speaker 2: it was triggered by the housing bubble burst in two

187
00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:53,520
Speaker 2: thousand and five.

188
00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:56,040
Speaker 3: This time it's a little different.

189
00:09:56,280 --> 00:10:01,480
Speaker 4: This is still motivated by a health crisis, very different,

190
00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:03,360
Speaker 4: I think from the Great Recession.

191
00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:06,600
Speaker 1: And Michael says that this recession hit like a natural

192
00:10:06,640 --> 00:10:10,960
Speaker 1: disaster as opposed to people exploiting the housing market, and

193
00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:13,480
Speaker 1: that means that there were implications for what kind of

194
00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:14,920
Speaker 1: policy was prescribed.

195
00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:19,640
Speaker 4: And in a world in which the risk really reflects

196
00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:22,520
Speaker 4: something that happened through no fault of my own, then

197
00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:25,280
Speaker 4: that's where we really need to think seriously about the

198
00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:29,800
Speaker 4: degree to which this crisis actually echoes the Great Recession,

199
00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:33,360
Speaker 4: because the policy response, at least on the mortgage side,

200
00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:37,880
Speaker 4: seems to be somewhat similar, and yet the source of

201
00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:40,480
Speaker 4: the impact appears to be somewhat different.

202
00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:44,079
Speaker 2: So, knowing that, let's put all of this in context,

203
00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:46,720
Speaker 2: let's map it right on the timeline, starting from the

204
00:10:46,760 --> 00:10:47,960
Speaker 2: beginning of twenty twenty.

205
00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:50,320
Speaker 1: All I know is that I was minding my business,

206
00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:53,400
Speaker 1: enjoying the new year, and then all of a sudden,

207
00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:56,280
Speaker 1: twenty twenty turned into the worst year.

208
00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:59,560
Speaker 3: Of all time. By the end of February.

209
00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:02,880
Speaker 2: Michael laid out what's happening with housing in stages, and

210
00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:05,240
Speaker 2: the first three stages can pretty much be summed up

211
00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:09,480
Speaker 2: as good, bad, then worse. Let's start with the good.

212
00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:15,920
Speaker 4: The immediate implication of COVID nineteen was in some ways

213
00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:20,400
Speaker 4: actually positive for housing activity. We actually saw mortgage applications

214
00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:26,040
Speaker 4: for purchases and refrising that's refinancing actually spike in that

215
00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:28,120
Speaker 4: January early February period.

216
00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:31,880
Speaker 1: At the beginning of twenty twenty, unemployment was at historic lows,

217
00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:35,679
Speaker 1: thanks Obama. But markets react to what's going on, and

218
00:11:36,600 --> 00:11:40,320
Speaker 1: it seemed like coronavirus might be a problem, and if

219
00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:43,600
Speaker 1: the economy took a hit, they didn't know how bigger

220
00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:44,400
Speaker 1: small it would be.

221
00:11:44,640 --> 00:11:48,120
Speaker 2: So mortgage interest rates dropped because we believe the economy

222
00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:51,280
Speaker 2: could still hang in there. So houses became more affordable,

223
00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:56,040
Speaker 2: construction was cheaper, and people's tendency to refinance so take

224
00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:58,240
Speaker 2: their loan back to get a lower rate and end

225
00:11:58,280 --> 00:12:01,080
Speaker 2: up paying less each month, that tendency increased.

226
00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:04,520
Speaker 4: But then when it became clear that COVID nineteen was

227
00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:08,400
Speaker 4: going to have a much more a much deeper impact

228
00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:12,960
Speaker 4: on the economy, as shelter and place orders were put in,

229
00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:16,319
Speaker 4: and again I definitely want to reiterate that they are

230
00:12:16,400 --> 00:12:20,520
Speaker 4: definitely key for protecting the health of the public. It's

231
00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:23,920
Speaker 4: a tradeoff. But as all of those were put in,

232
00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:28,480
Speaker 4: then you had a situation in which as businesses closed,

233
00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:32,440
Speaker 4: as people were laid off and they had less income,

234
00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:35,120
Speaker 4: we saw that. We certainly saw this decline in what

235
00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:36,560
Speaker 4: we call aggregate.

236
00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:40,680
Speaker 1: Demand, and aggregate demand is just like it sounds, just

237
00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:45,560
Speaker 1: demand for the entire economy. So now we're about in

238
00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:49,800
Speaker 1: February March, and we've still got lower interest rates, but

239
00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:52,600
Speaker 1: we also have higher unemployment rates.

240
00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:55,480
Speaker 2: But what was also happening is that as the interest

241
00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:58,480
Speaker 2: rates are down and the unemployment rates started going up,

242
00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:03,040
Speaker 2: we were also seeing housing prices continue to increase despite

243
00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:06,040
Speaker 2: applications to buy a home beginning to decline.

244
00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:09,920
Speaker 1: So less people were trying to get a home, but

245
00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:12,880
Speaker 1: the prices for houses are going up.

246
00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:14,960
Speaker 2: That doesn't make sense. That goes against everything a lot

247
00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:20,640
Speaker 2: about demand you have supplied. There is no demand drop.

248
00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:24,440
Speaker 1: The price exactly, these houses should be free ninety nine.

249
00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:29,280
Speaker 1: So some people whose houses were still increasing in value

250
00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:32,480
Speaker 1: but who were seeing a lower mortgage rate were able

251
00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:35,560
Speaker 1: to refinance and get a lower rate or a shorter

252
00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:37,120
Speaker 1: term on their mortgage.

253
00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:40,800
Speaker 2: But then as we move on into what Michael calls

254
00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:44,320
Speaker 2: the third phase of COVID related housing trends. This is

255
00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:47,400
Speaker 2: about March, April or May, it became clear that many

256
00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:49,800
Speaker 2: people were not going to be able to pay their mortgage.

257
00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:52,680
Speaker 2: You only had to look at the unemployment rate continuing

258
00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:55,960
Speaker 2: to rise in order to understand that mortgages were at risk.

259
00:13:56,559 --> 00:13:59,880
Speaker 4: Historically, your ability to pay your mortgage is largely to

260
00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:02,360
Speaker 4: to whether or not you have a job, and so

261
00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:05,440
Speaker 4: historically what we see is that the mortgage delinquency rate

262
00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:07,160
Speaker 4: will track the unemployment rate.

263
00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:11,280
Speaker 1: The unemployment rate in April of this year twenty twenty

264
00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:14,280
Speaker 1: got up to fourteen point seven percent.

265
00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:16,720
Speaker 3: That has never happened before.

266
00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:19,080
Speaker 4: So as the unemployment rate was rising, we started to

267
00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:21,840
Speaker 4: see more people not being able to make their mortgage payments,

268
00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:25,040
Speaker 4: which had serious implications for the mortgage market.

269
00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:29,160
Speaker 1: And there you have it, good, bad, and then worse.

270
00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:33,200
Speaker 1: And then came a fourth stage where, for various reasons,

271
00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:36,880
Speaker 1: some states started to open up again. This led to

272
00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:38,880
Speaker 1: a decrease in the unemployment rate.

273
00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:43,160
Speaker 4: As well as actually a recovery in purchase applications, suggesting

274
00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:46,600
Speaker 4: that demand to buy a home was actually beginning to recover,

275
00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:51,560
Speaker 4: and that really I think culminated with the strong home

276
00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:55,120
Speaker 4: sales numbers that we saw that we saw in June,

277
00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:58,240
Speaker 4: where new and existing home sales really rose by something

278
00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:03,200
Speaker 4: on a north of two twenty percent. But where we

279
00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:07,400
Speaker 4: are now is indications again COVID being at the center

280
00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:11,720
Speaker 4: of this. Where we are now is indications that perhaps

281
00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:15,560
Speaker 4: we are not recovering to the same degree that we

282
00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:20,280
Speaker 4: originally fought, particularly when states were beginning to roll back

283
00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:21,560
Speaker 4: their shelter and place orders.

284
00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:23,640
Speaker 1: So that brings us to present day. What emoji would

285
00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:28,480
Speaker 1: you assign to present day twenty twenty housing the vomit

286
00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:29,280
Speaker 1: emoji for me.

287
00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:35,280
Speaker 2: I don't even know, Like the trash can trash trash can.

288
00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:38,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, And so now there is a very real risk

289
00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:42,880
Speaker 4: that a lot of on what we experienced in February, March,

290
00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:44,280
Speaker 4: and April could come back.

291
00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:46,440
Speaker 1: Let's take a quick break and when we get back,

292
00:15:46,440 --> 00:16:03,600
Speaker 1: we're going to jump into the path to housing security.

293
00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:06,840
Speaker 3: We're back, and.

294
00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:10,720
Speaker 1: After everything that we talked about in the first half

295
00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:15,080
Speaker 1: of this lab refinance and interest rates, mortgage rates, all

296
00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:19,560
Speaker 1: these things like that, now we need to push all

297
00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:21,760
Speaker 1: of that to the side and get to the people

298
00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:24,760
Speaker 1: that are affected by all of this. So we're gonna

299
00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:27,360
Speaker 1: speak broadly about the different types of people that are

300
00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:30,000
Speaker 1: involved in the housing equation, just so that you can

301
00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:31,840
Speaker 1: understand all the different roles.

302
00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:35,040
Speaker 2: Let's start with the renters. So people that are renting

303
00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:37,600
Speaker 2: may be in a lower economic group, so earning less

304
00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:41,440
Speaker 2: than homeowners and just have less to start with, Michael says.

305
00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:44,000
Speaker 2: They also may be in industries that are hardest hit,

306
00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:49,120
Speaker 2: like accommodation services and the retail sector. This jeopardizes their

307
00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:53,400
Speaker 2: income either way, the rent is due, and unless there

308
00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:57,240
Speaker 2: are policies to provide income assistance or prevent evictions, they're

309
00:16:57,240 --> 00:16:58,680
Speaker 2: at risk of losing their homes.

310
00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:02,520
Speaker 1: And then you have homeowners. Homeowners and property owners also

311
00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:04,640
Speaker 1: may be in the group of folks that have lost

312
00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:07,640
Speaker 1: their jobs or were furloughed and are unable to pay

313
00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:11,159
Speaker 1: their mortgage. And an owner of a property is responsible

314
00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:14,000
Speaker 1: for paying the mortgages, even if they're tenants. The runners

315
00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:17,119
Speaker 1: we just talked about are unable to pay, so the

316
00:17:17,280 --> 00:17:19,000
Speaker 1: issue starts to compound.

317
00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:23,880
Speaker 2: Then there's the lenders. Lenders are banks and financial institutions

318
00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:27,120
Speaker 2: that lend the money to borrowers to purchase a home.

319
00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:29,320
Speaker 2: When we think about lenders. They come in a couple

320
00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:32,080
Speaker 2: different categories. Sometimes your bank can be your lender. So

321
00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:35,520
Speaker 2: if you bank with Wells Fargo, Bank of America City,

322
00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:38,040
Speaker 2: they all have like a mortgage branch, they can be

323
00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:42,560
Speaker 2: mortgage lenders. There are also some online lenders, so Quickened

324
00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:46,240
Speaker 2: Loans is an online lender. I just read about Guild Mortgage.

325
00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:49,119
Speaker 2: That's an online lender. Lenders are required to funnel the

326
00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:53,720
Speaker 2: mortgage payment from the borrower back to the investors securing

327
00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:54,400
Speaker 2: the loan.

328
00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:57,320
Speaker 1: And that leads us to the investors that are securing

329
00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:00,239
Speaker 1: the loans, and a mortgage investor is the party that

330
00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,639
Speaker 1: purchases the mortgages from the lenders. In most cases, the

331
00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:08,119
Speaker 1: investors are actual government entities like Fanny May and Freddie

332
00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:12,040
Speaker 1: Mac or government sponsored enterprises like FAJA or the VA,

333
00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:14,879
Speaker 1: and they purchase your home loans, so your lender is

334
00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:18,400
Speaker 1: able to continue selling new home loans, and those investors

335
00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:21,479
Speaker 1: want their money, and this is why we need a

336
00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:23,480
Speaker 1: life raft for everyone.

337
00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:27,200
Speaker 4: The policy prescription should then take into account the fact

338
00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,760
Speaker 4: that people may not be paying their mortgages or may

339
00:18:30,800 --> 00:18:33,920
Speaker 4: not be able to pay their rent through no fault

340
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:34,280
Speaker 4: of their own.

341
00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:37,560
Speaker 2: So there were already some efforts. Back in March, the

342
00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:40,800
Speaker 2: Cares Act was passed, and this included an additional six

343
00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:44,680
Speaker 2: hundred dollars in unemployment benefits and a one hundred twenty

344
00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:48,359
Speaker 2: day moratorium on evictions. This means you can't evict someone

345
00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:51,680
Speaker 2: who's unable to pay their rent for one hundred twenty days.

346
00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:55,000
Speaker 1: And that relief only applied to federally backed mortgages, so

347
00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:58,320
Speaker 1: mortgages from lenders that are funded by the government like

348
00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:01,000
Speaker 1: Fannie May, Freddie Mac, and the FAJ.

349
00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:04,359
Speaker 2: While that's a great program, the Urban Institute says that

350
00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:07,320
Speaker 2: only accounts for about twenty eight percent of renters.

351
00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:12,240
Speaker 1: The moratorium on evictions expired July twenty fourth, and the

352
00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:15,960
Speaker 1: six hundred dollars additional stimulus benefit payments stopped on July

353
00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:19,720
Speaker 1: thirty first, so this leaves a lot more people unable

354
00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:21,400
Speaker 1: to pay their rent or mortgage.

355
00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:24,960
Speaker 2: On August eighth, Trump signed for executive orders, one of

356
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:29,080
Speaker 2: which was billed as a federal eviction ban, but it's

357
00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:34,320
Speaker 2: not technically a ban. It doesn't even extend the moratorium

358
00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:40,240
Speaker 2: from before. Instead, it allows agencies to consider eviction protection

359
00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:43,760
Speaker 2: and it allows them to look for sources of funding

360
00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:48,200
Speaker 2: to assist people that are renting, but it doesn't mandate

361
00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:49,200
Speaker 2: that they do anything.

362
00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:52,919
Speaker 3: So they can help you, but they don't have to

363
00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:53,280
Speaker 3: help you.

364
00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:55,600
Speaker 2: Another part of the care is act that we didn't

365
00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:56,960
Speaker 2: mention is forbearance.

366
00:19:57,200 --> 00:19:59,800
Speaker 4: One of the things that I think that the data

367
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:04,960
Speaker 4: is clear on is that forbearance has certainly helped homeowners,

368
00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:08,399
Speaker 4: particularly the most vulnerable homeowners, remain in their homes.

369
00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 2: And this basically allows you to push off your payments

370
00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:14,040
Speaker 2: until a later date when you will hopefully be in

371
00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:15,520
Speaker 2: a better financial position.

372
00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:19,359
Speaker 4: Forbearance has been key to helping people to maintain their

373
00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:22,520
Speaker 4: homes even when they can't make their mortgage payment. But

374
00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:27,520
Speaker 4: on the renter side, forbearance is also important because somebody

375
00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:33,480
Speaker 4: owns the building and so property owners also get forbearance,

376
00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:35,640
Speaker 4: which is going to be important for them because they

377
00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:39,239
Speaker 4: take the income that renters pay and turn around and

378
00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:42,120
Speaker 4: pay whatever mortgage that they have on the property.

379
00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:45,480
Speaker 1: So allowing homeowners to go into forbearance is the best

380
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:48,760
Speaker 1: way to ensure that the market remains somewhat stable.

381
00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:53,040
Speaker 4: But the other side of the coin is that forbearance.

382
00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:58,440
Speaker 4: While forbearance gives relief to borrowers, it does not give

383
00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:01,640
Speaker 4: relief to the mortgage holders.

384
00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:04,359
Speaker 1: And that's because the mortgage holders are still on the

385
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:08,399
Speaker 1: hook to move those mortgage payments from borrower to investor.

386
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:11,760
Speaker 2: So you know, there's this chain, there's the money chain.

387
00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:14,600
Speaker 2: Your money has to go from borrower to your mortgage

388
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:17,639
Speaker 2: servicer to the lender, and then the lender has to

389
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 2: turn it over to the investor. Now, sometimes a lender

390
00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:21,760
Speaker 2: and the servicer are the same, usually if you have

391
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:25,760
Speaker 2: a bank backed mortgage. But either way, as a borrower,

392
00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:28,360
Speaker 2: you have to pay. And this has affected a lot

393
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:30,399
Speaker 2: of smaller lenders who are now on the hook to

394
00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 2: deliver four to six months of mortgage payments to investors.

395
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:37,879
Speaker 1: So I mean, hearing all this, you think, oh, forbearons,

396
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:40,879
Speaker 1: that's great, But there is another side to it, another

397
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:43,960
Speaker 1: side that can negatively affect people who want to take

398
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 1: advantage of the housing market right now. So if people

399
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:50,640
Speaker 1: buy a house and then immediately lose their job, then

400
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:53,400
Speaker 1: request for barans, which is the right thing to do.

401
00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 1: Lenders can see that coming from a mile away, that

402
00:21:57,560 --> 00:21:59,400
Speaker 1: there's going to be a lot of people that are

403
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 1: going to be requesting for bearans. So then they may say, oh, well,

404
00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,679
Speaker 1: I'm going to change the requirements. I'm going to change

405
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,439
Speaker 1: the standards that will dictate whether or not we are

406
00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:12,280
Speaker 1: going to lend to a person, which then makes it

407
00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:14,119
Speaker 1: more difficult for people to buy a home.

408
00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:17,919
Speaker 2: The Urban Institute says that it's significantly harder for borrowers

409
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:21,480
Speaker 2: with less than pristine credit to qualify for a mortgage

410
00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 2: today than it was just four months ago because of forbearance. Basically,

411
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:31,040
Speaker 2: they're estimating that these new penalties because of forbearance will

412
00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:35,160
Speaker 2: limit home ownership and refinancing opportunities for about two hundred

413
00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 2: and fifty five thousand credit worthy borrowers. And the folks

414
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,920
Speaker 2: disproportionately affected by this you already know.

415
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 4: And so that's kind of the dual of forbearance is

416
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:46,439
Speaker 4: on the one hand, yes, it has had a positive

417
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 4: impact in terms of keeping current homeowners in their home,

418
00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:52,240
Speaker 4: but there are these other sides of it that do

419
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,880
Speaker 4: have adverse implications, particularly for people of color.

420
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:59,359
Speaker 2: So we asked Michael, what is the Urban Institute doing

421
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 2: to help all these folks who are in danger of

422
00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:03,160
Speaker 2: losing their homes.

423
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 4: We started the Rental Crisis Working Group, where we are

424
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:11,840
Speaker 4: engaging with advocates and stakeholders on the rental side to

425
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 4: understand what's going on. And help to formulate policies. The

426
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 4: second thing is the mortgage market COVID Collaborative, where we

427
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 4: have been engaging with advocates, both industry and consumer advocates

428
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:31,360
Speaker 4: to discuss the solutions that need to be had with

429
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:35,240
Speaker 4: respect to the home ownership market. And that's understanding the

430
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:38,240
Speaker 4: policies that have already been in place and what those

431
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:41,400
Speaker 4: things mean for homeowners as well as how the industry

432
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:43,680
Speaker 4: grapples with those so that we can come up come

433
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:47,359
Speaker 4: to some kind of consensus solution, that consensus policy solution

434
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:49,200
Speaker 4: that really helps the home ownership side.

435
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 1: It's great to know that there are people who are

436
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 1: working and on the job to try and come up

437
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:57,679
Speaker 1: with these solutions to help all these people. So what

438
00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:00,960
Speaker 1: should people do if they find themselves in a really

439
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 1: tough spot and they are at risk of losing their home.

440
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 4: I think one of the first things as a renter

441
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:12,679
Speaker 4: that that one should do is find out from your

442
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 4: property manager whether or not the mortgage for the property

443
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:21,680
Speaker 4: is owned by one of the agencies, by FHA, or

444
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 4: by Fannie may or Freddie Mack. If so, for those people,

445
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:28,960
Speaker 4: that is where the Care is Act actually says that

446
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 4: a moratory montuvections.

447
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:34,200
Speaker 2: Michael says, if you've already lost your job, make sure

448
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:38,199
Speaker 2: you take advantage of unemployment insurance. If there is no

449
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:42,840
Speaker 2: expanded unemployment insurance, he suggests calling your member of Congress

450
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:47,159
Speaker 2: and telling them to pass legislation immediately that expands or

451
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:50,119
Speaker 2: enhances the unemployment insurance available to you.

452
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 4: Turning over to the to the homeowner side, I think

453
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:58,680
Speaker 4: that if they are experiencing again any type of unemployment,

454
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 4: that the they find out how to request forbearance and

455
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:07,159
Speaker 4: also track to make sure with the credit bureaus that

456
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:11,480
Speaker 4: the request of forbearance does not impact their credit score.

457
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:14,720
Speaker 2: Michael says that we can't treat these issues of housing

458
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 2: like it's one off. This isn't something that's just specific

459
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:21,440
Speaker 2: to COVID and when it's over, we'll all go back

460
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:24,720
Speaker 2: to normal. There are real long term consequences if we

461
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,480
Speaker 2: don't handle this in the right way right now.

462
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:29,240
Speaker 4: The implication is that if we don't deal with this,

463
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,920
Speaker 4: there are real concerns for growing inequality on the other

464
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,440
Speaker 4: side of this. That is, those that have been able

465
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:38,199
Speaker 4: to keep their jobs through this may be able to

466
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:40,400
Speaker 4: save in part because now that they're sheltering at home,

467
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 4: they may be paying higher groceries, but their transportation costs

468
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 4: are less. Few other costs are less. And what we've

469
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:47,399
Speaker 4: seen is that savings race has actually jumped up. But

470
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,240
Speaker 4: at the same time, there are the most vulnerable among

471
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:52,439
Speaker 4: us appear to be most exposed to this crisis, and

472
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:53,680
Speaker 4: that's just going to widen the gap.

473
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 2: So some people have been able to work from home

474
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 2: this whole time and continue to collect a check. They're

475
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:02,120
Speaker 2: not driving to work, pay lesson gas, they aren't eating

476
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:04,480
Speaker 2: out as much as they were, so they're saving some there,

477
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:07,679
Speaker 2: and their savings account it's just growing. But the folks

478
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 2: that may have lost their jobs or have to work

479
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 2: on the front lines, they're not adding to their savings.

480
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:16,639
Speaker 2: This means that the income gap will be wider.

481
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 4: Think about where the stock market is now, and think

482
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 4: about where the unemployment rate is now.

483
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 1: The stock market is doing fantastic, but unemployment is awful.

484
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:33,159
Speaker 4: And I think that for me is the telling picture.

485
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 2: I recognize that there was a housing shortage, but I

486
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:39,479
Speaker 2: don't think I knew it was this bad, and I

487
00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 2: didn't realize how all these things were connected.

488
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, this whole thing was super educational for me because

489
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 1: even just being able to understand what some of these

490
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:53,879
Speaker 1: words mean and the implications when some of these executive

491
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 1: orders and things like that come out, so I can

492
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:59,719
Speaker 1: understand what they're saying. I think that that is priceless.

493
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 1: And Michael was also able to give us tools or

494
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:06,399
Speaker 1: tell us step by step what we should be doing

495
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:08,480
Speaker 1: if we do find ourselves in this situation.

496
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 2: I walked away from the conversation with Michael even more furious, right,

497
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 2: more furious that there aren't safety nets in place for folks,

498
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:21,200
Speaker 2: that people are even in this situation, and that there's

499
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 2: commentary saying that we should stop the eviction moratorium, or

500
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 2: we shouldn't continue to expand unemployment insurance or housing assistance houseway,

501
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 2: how do you not see, no matter where you stand

502
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:39,439
Speaker 2: in this equation, you're affected exactly. There's just you, and

503
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 2: there's just an operator between you and the other person,

504
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 2: whether it's a plus sign, a multiplication sign, like we're

505
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 2: all in this exactly.

506
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:50,760
Speaker 1: And the other thing that keeps replaying in my mind

507
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:55,119
Speaker 1: is that this is nobody's fault, like we are in

508
00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:57,680
Speaker 1: a pandemic, This is not the fault of the renter,

509
00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 1: the homeowner, nobody, and taking away some of these lifelines

510
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:07,200
Speaker 1: that they were throwing out. Initially, I'm like, Wow, that's

511
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 1: really crazy because nobody is doing anything wrong. Nobody put

512
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:15,400
Speaker 1: themselves in this situation like folks are in a really,

513
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:30,679
Speaker 1: really tough spot. That's it for Lab twenty nine, but

514
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:32,760
Speaker 1: we have so much more for you to dig into

515
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:36,440
Speaker 1: on our website, so head over to Dope labspodcast dot com.

516
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 2: On our website you can find a cheat sheet for

517
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 2: today's lab, along with a ton of other links and

518
00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 2: resources in the show notes, and if you.

519
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:44,920
Speaker 1: Want to stay in the know with Dope Labs, don't

520
00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 1: forget to sign up for our newsletter on our site

521
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 1: too special.

522
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 2: Thanks to our guest expert Michael Neil. You can learn

523
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 2: more about his work at the Urban Institute at Urban

524
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 2: dot org. Also, we love hearing from you. What did

525
00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:59,760
Speaker 2: you think about today's lab? Do you have ideas for

526
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 2: a few labs? Call us at two zero two five

527
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 2: six seven seven zero two eight and let us know.

528
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 1: You can find us on Twitter and Instagram at Dope

529
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 1: Labs Podcast.

530
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:14,320
Speaker 2: Tt is on Twitter at dr Underscore t Sho.

531
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 1: And you can find Zakiya at z said So follow

532
00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 1: us on Spotify or wherever else you listen to podcasts.

533
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 1: Dope Labs is produced by Jenny radalt Mass of Waverrunner Studios.

534
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 2: Mixing and sound design are by Hannes Brown.

535
00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:30,600
Speaker 1: Our theme music is by Taka Yasuzawa and Alex Sugiura,

536
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 1: with additional music by Elijah Lex Harvey. Dope Labs is

537
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 1: a production of Spotify and Mega Oh Media Group.

538
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 2: And it's executive produced by us T. T. Show Dia

539
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 2: and Zakiah Wattley. Now that we have all that, let's

540
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 2: take a break.

541
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 3: Hell, we have all that, Let's take a nap.

542
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 1: You can pause us right here and come back when

543
00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:59,200
Speaker 1: your brain is ready for what's next. The second wave

544
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 1: of the Housing crit is sis yes, mm hmm