1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:00,440 Speaker 1: Good morning. 2 00:00:00,440 --> 00:00:02,240 Speaker 2: I'm Nathan Hager, and we are out now with the 3 00:00:02,320 --> 00:00:05,560 Speaker 2: latest swing state poll results from Bloomberg News and Morning 4 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:09,039 Speaker 2: Consult on the seven battlegrounds they could decide the November 5 00:00:09,039 --> 00:00:12,760 Speaker 2: election between President Biden and former President Donald Trump. It 6 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 2: should suggests that any post State of the Union bounce 7 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:18,440 Speaker 2: that the president may have enjoyed last month is all 8 00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:20,400 Speaker 2: but gone. Now for more, we are joined by the 9 00:00:20,480 --> 00:00:23,599 Speaker 2: national politics reporter who wrote the story on this month survey, 10 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Gregory Cordy. Gregory, Good morning. So we're back to 11 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:30,040 Speaker 2: where we started for President Biden. Is that what we're 12 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 2: finding in this poll? 13 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:34,440 Speaker 1: Good morning, And yeah, I think that's pretty much where 14 00:00:34,440 --> 00:00:37,720 Speaker 1: we are. President Biden is certainly no worse off than 15 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 1: he was back in January February when he trailed foreign 16 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:47,280 Speaker 1: President Trump by about you know, six percent. Presigning points 17 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:50,479 Speaker 1: are so across these seven swing states that we're monitoring. 18 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: But and as you say, he got a little bit 19 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:56,279 Speaker 1: of a bounce after Stay the Union address. People were 20 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 1: feeling a little bit better about the economy last month. 21 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 1: But we've had a couple of pieces of bad economic news, 22 00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 1: particularly around inflation, and we've seen that the presidence numbers 23 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 1: tend to move and lockstep with how people are feeling 24 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:14,720 Speaker 1: about the economy, and this is a pretty pessimistic electorate 25 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 1: when it comes to the economy, and so we're seeing 26 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:21,120 Speaker 1: Biden falling back to that same place that he was 27 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:24,640 Speaker 1: a couple of months ago in traveling President Trump. In 28 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:26,800 Speaker 1: most of these states, as. 29 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 2: We've found in polls in the past, the economy has 30 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:32,360 Speaker 2: been the overriding issue, though we have seen immigration bump 31 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:36,199 Speaker 2: up as well. What other issues are voters thinking about 32 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:37,840 Speaker 2: as far as we've found. 33 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:41,399 Speaker 1: Yeah, one thing that we saw in this month's poll 34 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:45,400 Speaker 1: is of abortion getting a little bit more attention. Of course, 35 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 1: when we were in the field with this poll this month, 36 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: we had that Arizona Supreme Court decision that reverted back 37 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 1: to the pre Row versus Wade law that was in 38 00:01:57,000 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 1: effect beginning in eighteen sixty four that prohibited pretty much 39 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 1: all abortions in the state, regardless of circumstances. And that 40 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:08,800 Speaker 1: resonated particularly in Arizona, of course, which is a swing 41 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 1: state in and of itself, but really across the country, 42 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 1: it's a mobilizing issue for Democrats. But it remains to 43 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 1: be seen whether it's something that can really move the 44 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:22,919 Speaker 1: needle in persuading independence where the economy is still the 45 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:23,760 Speaker 1: number one issue. 46 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:25,919 Speaker 2: I suppose it's probably a little too soon to tell 47 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:28,839 Speaker 2: whether abortion has a trajectory to overtake some of those 48 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 2: other issues, since it's about the first time we've asked 49 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:34,320 Speaker 2: about this. But when it comes to third parties like 50 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 2: Robert F. Kennedy Junior, what are we seeing when it 51 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:39,920 Speaker 2: comes to where he could potentially draw support from. 52 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:44,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's been a persistent question throughout this cycle, is 53 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 1: can third party candidates really make a difference here? And 54 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 1: we continue to really kind of scrutinize the evidence, to 55 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:56,519 Speaker 1: go deep into the cross tabs to figure out whether 56 00:02:56,600 --> 00:03:00,960 Speaker 1: he hurts Biden more or Trump more, and it's still 57 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:06,640 Speaker 1: kind of hard to say, although the feeling generally is 58 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 1: that Democrats are more worried, and that's partly because even 59 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 1: though RSK has some appeal on the Republican side, Trump's 60 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 1: supporters are pretty loyal to Trump, and even though they 61 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:26,680 Speaker 1: like RFK Junior, they will stick with him. Kennedy, of course, 62 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 1: comes from a very powerful Democratic family, has that name 63 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 1: going for him and has a lot of appeal to Democrats, 64 00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 1: and of course Biden supporters aren't quite as loyal, are 65 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 1: looking for alternatives, and Kennedy could be won. Now. 66 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 2: Of course, you've seen the president throughout this campaign of 67 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 2: campaigning on the legislative initiatives that he's managed to get through. 68 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 2: It hasn't really seemed to help him much in terms 69 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 2: of getting voters out. But we did see a major 70 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 2: initiative finally pass after a six month impass on Capitol Hill, 71 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 2: in the form of billion dollars in foreign aid and 72 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 2: a potential forced sale of TikTok. Is there any indication 73 00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:09,839 Speaker 2: from the pulling that we're seeing, Gregory, on whether these 74 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 2: sort of legislative victories are have a chance of cutting 75 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 2: through for the president. 76 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:18,119 Speaker 1: We'll have to see whether this foreign aid package will 77 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:22,840 Speaker 1: break through the noise of this election cycle. But as 78 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:27,279 Speaker 1: you suggest, when we have pulled on specific items of legislation, 79 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 1: the president's gotten accomplished things like infrastructure, the Inflation Reduction Act, 80 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 1: the Chips Act to build more semiconductors and increase manufacturing 81 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 1: in the US. None of us particularly resonate with voters, 82 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 1: don't not a whole lot of awareness. Now, of course, 83 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:47,280 Speaker 1: this is what the President's campaign is going to be 84 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 1: doing over the next six months is to remind people 85 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:53,240 Speaker 1: of these accomplishments, to tell him what he's done on 86 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 1: the economy, to give it time for those to take effect. 87 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 1: The foreign aid vote, there are some splits in the 88 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 1: electorate of whether even people want to pay for it. 89 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 1: One of the things we saw in this poll was 90 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:10,200 Speaker 1: that support for Ukraine remains pretty strong, but we saw 91 00:05:10,240 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 1: a ten point decrease in support for aid to Israel. 92 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 1: This time. People are tiring of the Israel Gaza war. 93 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:21,159 Speaker 1: They wanted to end, they want to cease fire, and 94 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 1: so President Biden still has some difficulties naming eapigate on 95 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:27,480 Speaker 1: the Foreign afairs One. 96 00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 2: Really appreciate this. Gregory, thanks so much for being with us. 97 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 2: S Bloomberg National Politics reporter Gregory Cordy with us on 98 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 2: the just now out Bloomberg News Morning Consult Swing State Pole. 99 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 2: We will have much more coverage on it throughout the 100 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:43,239 Speaker 2: day here on Bloomberg Radio, and you can read more 101 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:46,160 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg dot Com and on the Bloomberg terminal.