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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets. It is me Joey p joe Pisapia. Merry Christmas,

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Speaker 1: Happy Hanukkah, and a happy New Year to all of you.

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Speaker 1: It's a festive time of year. No one's more festive

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Speaker 1: if you're watching on the YouTube channel than our good

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Speaker 1: friend Matthew Friedman. Pat Fitzmorris here as well, get his

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Speaker 1: grinch on for everybody, and I, of course the Clark

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Speaker 1: Riswold of the bunch. Where's the tail in all? That's

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Speaker 1: all I want? Where is the tail? And all? Oh

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Speaker 1: my goodness, what a crazy day of Christmas games we had.

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Speaker 1: But it's time to look forward to Week seventeen. If

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Speaker 1: you can believe it, we're almost at the end. Some

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Speaker 1: of these races are getting real tight, lots of play

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Speaker 1: for still in the NFL, and we're going to talk

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Speaker 1: all about it. But gentlemen, let's start at the top,

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Speaker 1: because we've got one more game before we close the

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Speaker 1: book and close the chapter of Week sixteen in the NFL,

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Speaker 1: it's the Los Angeles Chargers of the Indianapolis Colts. The

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Speaker 1: number on this one is four on the side of

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Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Chargers going on the roads to the

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Speaker 1: Colts home underdogs, as one would think Folds is playing quarterback.

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Speaker 1: Forty five and a half is the number you like

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Speaker 1: the Colts for the upset at home, while you get

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Speaker 1: plus one seventy five on the money line, Pat fitz

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Speaker 1: More is, let's talk about it any love for this

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Speaker 1: game tonight? As we try to look ahead to week seventeen, it.

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Speaker 2: Seems like it's been forever since the Colts blew that

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Speaker 2: thirty three to nothing halftime lead, Joe, and we still

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Speaker 2: have yet to see how they are going to rebound

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Speaker 2: from that, And I feel like this line is maybe

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Speaker 2: giving them a hair too many credit for their resilience,

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Speaker 2: and we don't know if that's the case.

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Speaker 3: And they have no Jonathan Taylor anymore.

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Speaker 2: They've made a quarterback change because Matt Ryan was destined

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Speaker 2: to be a walking avatar of the most embarrassing loss

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Speaker 2: in franchise history and certainly one of the most embarrassing

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Speaker 2: losses of any team ever. So yeah, like, I can't

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Speaker 2: bet the Colts on this, Like, given this line suggesting

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Speaker 2: that they're going to stay close to a pretty good

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Speaker 2: Chargers team, you know, I don't really see any value

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Speaker 2: on the total, but I'm inclined to bet on the

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Speaker 2: Chargers here.

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Speaker 1: I hope that's not Matt Ryan's last game in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: That's a crappy way to go out. I mean, I just,

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Speaker 1: you know, shout out to Matt Ryan. He's been a

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Speaker 1: really good quarterback for a very long time. All right, Friedman,

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Speaker 1: your thoughts on Monday Night football?

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Speaker 4: Here?

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Speaker 1: Do the Colts have a little fight in them? Could

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Speaker 1: they keep this one close?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: I mean I have this projected at three point seventy five,

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Speaker 5: so pretty close to the market the ever so slightest

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Speaker 5: of lanes towards the Colts. But it's not as if

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Speaker 5: at all. I want to bet that Nick Foles has

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Speaker 5: not been like the backup quarterback, like he hasn't been

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Speaker 5: practicing before this past week with the team, like he's

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Speaker 5: been on the scout team kind of helping them prepare

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Speaker 5: doing what the opponent's offense is doing. And so it's

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Speaker 5: not as if he's out there really been practicing the

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Speaker 5: Colts offense whatever the Colts offense actually is, because it's

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Speaker 5: changed a couple of times during the season. So it's

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Speaker 5: not a great situation for him. I don't even know

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Speaker 5: if he's going to be an upgrade on Matt Ryan.

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Speaker 5: I think it's probably a lateral move and maybe a

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Speaker 5: little bit of a downgrade.

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Speaker 4: Still.

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Speaker 5: I have this projected with the slightest value on the Colts,

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Speaker 5: but that doesn't mean I'm betting it.

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Speaker 4: At the same time, the.

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Speaker 5: Chargers anything more like historically anything more than three points

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Speaker 5: for them has kind of been too much because they

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Speaker 5: tend to play down to the level of their competition.

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Speaker 5: So I think this line is right about where it

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Speaker 5: should be, and I'm not betting it.

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Speaker 4: All right, don't forget everybody.

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Speaker 1: Bet MGM the King of Sportsbook, the sponsor of the show,

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Speaker 1: money here for the holidays. You spend all that money

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Speaker 1: on Chris's presence. You need to make some money up.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with week seventeen. Finally it's here Thursday night football.

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Speaker 1: We've got the Dallas Cowboys coming off a huge win

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Speaker 1: against the Eagles against the Tennessee Titans coming off a

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Speaker 1: huge loss to Houston Texans. Yes, that's right, I said it.

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Speaker 1: So what seems like what it should be a ten

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Speaker 1: point favorite spot here for Dallas even though they're on

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Speaker 1: the road. Forty two and a half is the number

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Speaker 1: plus three fifty for the Tennessee Titans. Friedman, I don't

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Speaker 1: know about you, but this feels like the classic Dallas

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Speaker 1: trap where Dallas has a big win against the Eagles

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Speaker 1: at home and everyone's riding high, and then they're gonna

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Speaker 1: go out and they probably should beat this Tennessee team.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, the ten seems pretty big to me.

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Speaker 1: Maybe I'm wrong.

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Speaker 4: What do you think?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm looking at the odds page now that we

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Speaker 5: have at betting Pros, and it's fluctuating around nine and

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Speaker 5: a half in ten and I have this exactly at

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Speaker 5: nine and a half. And you know, I wish I

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Speaker 5: had bet it in the look ahead market when this

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Speaker 5: number was six and at that point, like I did

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Speaker 5: show some value on the Cowboys. And obviously my projections

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Speaker 5: have changed to account for what we saw this past week,

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Speaker 5: but even then I saw value on the Cowboys. The

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Speaker 5: reason why I didn't bet it that was because of

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Speaker 5: all of the injury situations with the Titans, and there

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Speaker 5: was a possibility, well, you know, maybe some of these

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Speaker 5: teams come some of these guys come back for the Titans,

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Speaker 5: and you know, Gardner Minshew coming in for the Eagles,

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Speaker 5: maybe he's not that bad, and so I was thinking

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Speaker 5: maybe there would be some value left on the Cowboys.

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Speaker 5: But no, the exact opposite of that happened. You know,

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Speaker 5: the Titans just got blown out by the lowly Texans

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Speaker 5: as you mentioned there. And the Cowboys, I mean, it's

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Speaker 5: hard to say they looked great against the Eagles, but

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Speaker 5: you know, still that was a pretty good Eagles team

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Speaker 5: and they got the win. Again, I just projected at

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Speaker 5: nine and a half exactly, so I don't see any

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Speaker 5: value in the market. But I did bet the early

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Speaker 5: line when this came out at eight and a half

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Speaker 5: because I thought the you know, after the look Ahead

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Speaker 5: released last night at eight and a half, because I thought, Okay,

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Speaker 5: this line's going to move closer to ten, so it

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Speaker 5: has I wouldn't be betting it where it is. And

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Speaker 5: as far as the total goes Man, I have as

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Speaker 5: exactly a forty three and a half as the number

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Speaker 5: I have at forty three point eight, So not really

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Speaker 5: doing anything given the current state of the market.

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Speaker 4: All right, Fitz, what's your take on the market here?

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Speaker 1: Again, I just tend seems like a really big number

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Speaker 1: to me, especially Tennessee coming off a loss there that's

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Speaker 1: kind of embarrassing for them, let's be honest. So you

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Speaker 1: think they show some respectability and keep this one closer

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Speaker 1: than the double digit points we have right now on betting.

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Speaker 2: Bros Possible Joe, And it does seem like a big

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Speaker 2: number to me, mainly because I'm not inclined to lay

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Speaker 2: that sort of number with Mike McCarthy coaching on the road, Like.

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Speaker 3: I'm just I'm not going to do it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, as a Packers fan who's seen enough of

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Speaker 2: Mike McCarthy's act, like I just, you know, especially when

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Speaker 2: I have so much coach for the Earth, so much

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Speaker 2: respect for the coach on the other sideline, Mike Rabel,

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Speaker 2: And certainly things have not gone well for the Titans

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Speaker 2: that during this five game losing streak, They're averaging fifteen

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Speaker 2: point two points a game. Malik Willis, I know conditions

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Speaker 2: were not great with the cold and Nashville and rolling

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Speaker 2: blackouts across Tennessee, but I mean he threw for ninety

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Speaker 2: nine yards, and if you factor in sacks, the net

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Speaker 2: passing yardage for the Titans was eighty eight this past week.

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Speaker 2: So the one big flaw maybe the Cowboys have right

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Speaker 2: now is the quarterback position with what injuries have done

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Speaker 2: to them, and I don't think Malik Willis can really

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Speaker 2: take advantage of that flaw.

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Speaker 3: So I'm probably just gonna walk away from this one.

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Speaker 2: If anything, maybe maybe take the under like I've got

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Speaker 2: Friedman's got it at forty three.

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Speaker 3: Eight, I've got it at forty three.

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Speaker 2: So but I don't know if half a point of

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Speaker 2: value is enough to suck me into this game at all.

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Speaker 5: Here's one thing I will I will say about the Titans,

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Speaker 5: and Fitz mentioned this. You know, Mike Vrabel as an underdog,

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Speaker 5: especially at home, like that has been the spot where

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Speaker 5: you have wanted to back them, especially as a big underdog,

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Speaker 5: and so like this is the Verbel spot. But this

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Speaker 5: is not a Rabel team given how injured they are

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Speaker 5: in with Malik Willis at quarterback, like, I don't think

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Speaker 5: they can operate the offense, even though it's historically a

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Speaker 5: bare bones offense, I don't think they can even operate

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Speaker 5: it at that level. So again, to fits his point,

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Speaker 5: I don't think Willis has what he needs to have

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Speaker 5: to be able to exploit the issues the Cowboys have

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Speaker 5: in this secondary.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of limited quarterback play, I give you the Atlanta

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Speaker 1: Falcons and Arizona Cardinals.

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Speaker 4: Boys.

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Speaker 1: The Atlanta Falcons three point home favorites, So go ahead,

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Speaker 1: just throw a coin in the air of the Arizona

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Speaker 1: Cardinals travel into Atlanta. Thirty nine and a half is

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Speaker 1: the number plus one thirty on the money line. If

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Speaker 1: like Arizona here, and I mean, look, we'll see who

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Speaker 1: quarterback is for them this week, if Cope McCoy is

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Speaker 1: back or not. It was an ugly game last night

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Speaker 1: by all accounts, so fits when you're taking a look

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Speaker 1: at this one right now, any early value would all

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Speaker 1: pop up to you because this one feels like it's

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Speaker 1: dead on and just kind of run the other way,

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Speaker 1: or bet Arizona on the money line.

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Speaker 4: And walk away.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm probably just gonna walk away, Joe, like I

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Speaker 2: just can't feel. Oh, please don't, please, don't give us

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Speaker 2: a trace McSorley versus Desmond Raider matchup, Oh my god.

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Speaker 3: Well so not.

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Speaker 1: Out of the range of outcomes, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I mean probably probably cult McCoy comes back, in which

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Speaker 2: case maybe the Cardinals are a little undervalued.

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Speaker 3: But I don't know right now.

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Speaker 2: I have it like, based on mcsorely playing again, I've

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Speaker 2: got Falcons.

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Speaker 1: The procol kind of follows the way it's gone all year.

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Speaker 1: It should be back and Freeman. Does that mean it's

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Speaker 1: a perfect time to jump on the Arizona plus one

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Speaker 1: thirty before this number starts to change with more.

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Speaker 5: That's assuming you actually want to bet on the Cardinals, as.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to bet on the Falcon right.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 5: As as Fitz knows, I tend to like betting on

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Speaker 5: the Cardinals when they are road underdogs like that has

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Speaker 5: been the spot where head coach Cliff Kingsbury has outperformed

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Speaker 5: pretty significantly, outperformed expectations. I do think Colt McCoy is

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Speaker 5: going to come back, or there's at least a probability.

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Speaker 5: I think it's likelier than not he comes back. He

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Speaker 5: did get in a limited practice on Friday, which is

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Speaker 5: kind of a bullish indication for his ability to return

220
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Speaker 5: this week. So I have it sort of like projected

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Speaker 5: right now like sort of like sixty percent chance that

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Speaker 5: McCoy comes back. And if he does come back, I

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Speaker 5: think this line moves under three, So it probably is

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Speaker 5: if you're looking for the Cardinals, I think now is

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Speaker 5: the time to bet it. And even if McCoy doesn't

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Speaker 5: come back, I don't think this line moves to three

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Speaker 5: and a half. I can't imagine a world in which

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Speaker 5: this moves at three and a half, and if we

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Speaker 5: do live in that world, I will be betting on

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Speaker 5: the Cardinals at three and a half.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's go to the Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions. Detroit,

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Speaker 1: things were going so well, and then all of a

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Speaker 1: sudden they ran into the Carolina Panthers. I don't know.

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Speaker 4: That doesn't seem right, but that's what happened.

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Speaker 1: So Detroit now goes back home after Look, they put

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Speaker 1: together some really good wins here. They are five point favorites,

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Speaker 1: though against the Chicago Bears. Much different. Here we're in

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Speaker 1: a dome. The elements This one certainly has a lot

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Speaker 1: of high scoring potential. Fifty one and a half is

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Speaker 1: the number plus one eighty five on the bear side.

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Speaker 1: I gotta tell you, Freeman, when I look at this one,

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Speaker 1: fifty one and a half seems small. I'm going to

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Speaker 1: go on the over on this one. With the way

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Speaker 1: these two defenses have played. And when you take Justin

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Speaker 1: Fields and put him indoors, I think this is a

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Speaker 1: really good recipe here to have a nice day for points.

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Speaker 4: What do you think?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I haven't projected at fifty two point three. And

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Speaker 5: it's not just Justin Phillis indoors. It's also Jared Goff,

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Speaker 5: who you know. I'm already starting to write up my

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Speaker 5: Favorites piece for week seventeen, and Goff will definitely be

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Speaker 5: in there because he has enormous home road splits this year.

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Speaker 5: You know, just when he's in a dome, he's throwing

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Speaker 5: for over three hundred yards, like, you know, three touchdowns,

255
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Speaker 5: hardly any interceptions, like he smashes when he is at

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Speaker 5: home in that dome. And I am the idiot who

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Speaker 5: bet this at Detroit minus six and a half on

258
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Speaker 5: the look ahead because I thought they were going to

259
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Speaker 5: smash the Panthers, and that obviously did not happen, but

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Speaker 5: I still have this projected at Detroit six and a half.

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Speaker 5: Like the Bears are missing multiple cornerbacks in their secondary.

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Speaker 5: Their defense is bad anyway, but missing multiple quarterbacks, missing

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Speaker 5: a starting safety. This is a Jared Goff game, which

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Speaker 5: means a lot of points for the Lions. I think

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Speaker 5: they cover. And I think this number, Josie said, goes

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Speaker 5: to the over fitz.

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Speaker 1: Jared Goff is an indoor cat. We talk about it

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Speaker 1: all the time. It does not like the outside. That

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00:12:07,760 --> 00:12:09,839
Speaker 1: being said, fifteen and a half to me, to me,

270
00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:11,679
Speaker 1: you smash this one. I think this number is going

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Speaker 1: to climb the more people have to marinate on it.

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Speaker 4: What do you think.

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Speaker 2: I'm with you guys on the total. I don't like

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Speaker 2: the side as much as Friedman does. Like I have

275
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Speaker 2: seen the Bears hang in with too many good teams

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Speaker 2: and you know, like pretty they've been spunky.

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Speaker 3: But I agree the defense is so depleted.

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Speaker 2: They have given up thirty two point six points per

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Speaker 2: game over their last eight. They're thirty first in defensive DVOA.

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Speaker 2: Only the Raiders are keeping them out of the cellar.

281
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Speaker 3: You know they had.

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Speaker 2: Been scoring a lot themselves, but they've been held to

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Speaker 2: twenty points or fewer in four straight.

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Speaker 3: But I don't know the Lions.

285
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Speaker 2: Their run defense was looking so good for about a

286
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Speaker 2: month and then they were just completely trampled by the

287
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Speaker 2: Panthers in Carolina. So some thing obviously ruptured in that

288
00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:07,480
Speaker 2: defense this past week. And bad time for leaks to

289
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Speaker 2: be sprung in your run defense with the Bears coming

290
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Speaker 2: to town, because that's what they want to do. They

291
00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:18,480
Speaker 2: just want to run you asunder. And yeah, so the

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Speaker 2: first time these teams played thirty one to thirty Lions

293
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Speaker 2: and they put up over seven.

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Speaker 3: Hundred yards of offense combined, so.

295
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Speaker 4: That all of that doesn't seem like enough.

296
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Speaker 2: Seven and thirty one, Yeah, I think this was like

297
00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:32,360
Speaker 2: an over, even at the inflated number.

298
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Speaker 4: Let's go all right.

299
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Speaker 1: My new favorite team, the Jacksonville Jaguars four point favorites

300
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Speaker 1: ahead of the Houston Texans traveling to Houston, OH. Thursday

301
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Speaker 1: night football was fun, freedom and I did the the

302
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Speaker 1: Little show together on BP. Hit the Jaguars on the

303
00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:51,280
Speaker 1: money line, hit the Treylor Lawrence anytime touchdown, ooh, it

304
00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:52,240
Speaker 1: with lots of good things.

305
00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:53,000
Speaker 4: It was a nice night.

306
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Speaker 1: Let me tell you Thursday, and I got a Zach

307
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Speaker 1: Wilson benching. All the things came together at the same time.

308
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Speaker 1: It was a beautiful thing. And Jacksonville has a shot

309
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Speaker 1: here at this division. In fact, they are leading this

310
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Speaker 1: division as of right now today. This is a shocking

311
00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:06,199
Speaker 1: state of affairs.

312
00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:07,600
Speaker 4: I'm all in on the Jacks.

313
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Speaker 1: They got a lot of pressure on Zach Wilson in

314
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Speaker 1: that game. I think that the Jacksonville Jaguars feel like

315
00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:16,000
Speaker 1: it's hey, we're playing with house money. No one expected

316
00:14:16,040 --> 00:14:18,160
Speaker 1: us to be here. It makes them super dangerous. I

317
00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:20,520
Speaker 1: don't think because Houston won last week they will take

318
00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:22,440
Speaker 1: Houston for granted. I think that was one of those

319
00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:24,480
Speaker 1: things where you could say this is a trap game,

320
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Speaker 1: maybe forty eight hours ago, not now. I don't think

321
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Speaker 1: it is because they say, oh, look, you beat the Titans,

322
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Speaker 1: we better be prepared for this one.

323
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Speaker 4: Fits.

324
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Speaker 1: What do you make of this game? I think Jacksonville

325
00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:36,120
Speaker 1: wins this one handily. Again minus two to ten on

326
00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:38,120
Speaker 1: the money line for them, But at the same time

327
00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:40,400
Speaker 1: you get minus one twelve on the four so that

328
00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:41,360
Speaker 1: seems to be the way to go.

329
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Speaker 2: I'm with you, Joe, doesn't it feel like the Texans

330
00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:47,200
Speaker 2: are maybe getting too much credit for beating the Titans

331
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Speaker 2: in weird weather conditions with a backup quarterback. As Friedman

332
00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:55,000
Speaker 2: pointed out, Titans have a lot of injury problems, and

333
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Speaker 2: maybe also part of it is that the Texans did

334
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Speaker 2: beat the Jaguars in the first meeting between these two

335
00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:04,480
Speaker 2: teams way back in Week five, but the Jaguars out

336
00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:07,040
Speaker 2: gained the Texans four hundred and twenty two yards to

337
00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:09,880
Speaker 2: two hundred and forty eight in that game, pretty much

338
00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:12,600
Speaker 2: had the better of play, but they lost the turnover

339
00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:14,720
Speaker 2: battle two to nothing and they were zero for three

340
00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:19,920
Speaker 2: on fourth thouts. So, like, we've seen Trevor Lawrence morph

341
00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:23,880
Speaker 2: into this beautiful butterfly breaking out of the cocoon over

342
00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:28,400
Speaker 2: his last seven games, fourteen touchdown passes, one interception, completing

343
00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:31,360
Speaker 2: just a shade under seventy percent of his throws and

344
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Speaker 2: averaging seven point five yards per attempt.

345
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Speaker 3: So I do think.

346
00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:38,440
Speaker 2: They just have too much firepower the Davis Mills led

347
00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:40,200
Speaker 2: Texans in this one.

348
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Speaker 1: All right, Friedman, Will the butterfly lead Jacksonville Jaguars and

349
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Speaker 1: Telah Lawrence tramp stamp the Houston Texans this week?

350
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Speaker 5: I mean I'm not as enthusiastic or poetic about this

351
00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:54,840
Speaker 5: team as FITS is, but I do have it projected

352
00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:58,120
Speaker 5: at four and a half. So I am leaning towards

353
00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:01,280
Speaker 5: the Jags here and I certainly wouldn't be betting on

354
00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:04,000
Speaker 5: the Texans, although I will say like I have been

355
00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:06,200
Speaker 5: impressed with the Texans what we've seen out of them

356
00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:08,280
Speaker 5: in the past three weeks. I've been I've been too

357
00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:12,080
Speaker 5: low on them because it's not uncommon for teams, especially

358
00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:15,320
Speaker 5: you know, teams that are in that front running position

359
00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:19,560
Speaker 5: for the number one pick just absolutely to die at

360
00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:22,160
Speaker 5: this point, and they have not done that. Like they

361
00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:26,400
Speaker 5: have played tough against three teams who are very live

362
00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:28,440
Speaker 5: to go to the playoffs, like two teams who are

363
00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:32,240
Speaker 5: championship contenders, and then the Titans, who were leading the division.

364
00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:33,960
Speaker 4: Like I'm in, I am impressed.

365
00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:37,160
Speaker 5: So it would not surprise me if the if the

366
00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:40,440
Speaker 5: Texans did cover this game, because it's not just what

367
00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:42,480
Speaker 5: we saw last week, it's what we've seen out of

368
00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:46,680
Speaker 5: them the past three weeks, and so I've been low

369
00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:48,240
Speaker 5: on them. I've been too low on them, and so

370
00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:50,760
Speaker 5: I am moving them up. But even with the move up,

371
00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:52,440
Speaker 5: I still like the Jags in this spot.

372
00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:55,840
Speaker 1: All right, Well, when you thought the season couldn't get

373
00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:59,440
Speaker 1: any worse for the Denver Broncos, you were wrong. Denver

374
00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:03,760
Speaker 1: Bronco's go salacked by the Los Angeles Rams. And to

375
00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:05,240
Speaker 1: make it even worse, I know they were doing that

376
00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:09,919
Speaker 1: Nickelodeon broadcast at the same time, so Squidward Live called

377
00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:12,480
Speaker 1: an interception of Russell Wilson. It was amazing. I don't

378
00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:13,719
Speaker 1: know if you've seen the clip on Twitter.

379
00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:15,160
Speaker 4: I have. It was awesome.

380
00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:18,120
Speaker 1: I highly suggest everybody go out there and looking hard.

381
00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:20,800
Speaker 1: But here we go. Let's talk about the Denver Broncos

382
00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:24,439
Speaker 1: thirteen point underdogs traveling to Kansas City. Kancy Chiefs came

383
00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:26,119
Speaker 1: out with another win this week. Forty three and a

384
00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:27,399
Speaker 1: half is the number for this one. If you like

385
00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:29,840
Speaker 1: Denver on the money line, you're getting plus five ten.

386
00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,040
Speaker 1: But I don't think that's a very good call for

387
00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:34,520
Speaker 1: even Let's talk about here. Thirteen a very big number

388
00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:37,240
Speaker 1: for Kansasity team that has had trouble putting away people

389
00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:39,360
Speaker 1: this year. There's no doubt that's definitely part of it.

390
00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:44,119
Speaker 1: Prolific is not what they are. But is it just

391
00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:45,920
Speaker 1: a matter of the Denver Broncos are that bad with

392
00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:48,560
Speaker 1: a thirteen is safe man.

393
00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:51,240
Speaker 5: This numbers even moved to thirteen and a half at

394
00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:55,679
Speaker 5: fan Duel, and last night this was eleven and a half.

395
00:17:56,520 --> 00:17:58,720
Speaker 5: Less than a week ago, on Thursday, in the look

396
00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:02,800
Speaker 5: ahead market, this number was ten, and I was in

397
00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:06,280
Speaker 5: just you know, to really put massive contexts, long term

398
00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:09,240
Speaker 5: context on this, and the offseason look ahead market this

399
00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:13,640
Speaker 5: number was four four and a half. On Thursday when

400
00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:16,400
Speaker 5: it was ten, I was showing value on the Chiefs

401
00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:19,360
Speaker 5: and I was just thinking, Okay, I sort of want

402
00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:22,280
Speaker 5: to bet this. At the same time, the Chiefs have

403
00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:26,359
Speaker 5: not really been good at covering large spreads and that

404
00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:31,560
Speaker 5: Denver defense was starting to come on. Denver covered last

405
00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:35,040
Speaker 5: time these two teams played, which wasn't that long ago.

406
00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,560
Speaker 5: I didn't bet it, and now I'm sort of regretting

407
00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:42,479
Speaker 5: that I didn't bet it because it has moved. But

408
00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:45,560
Speaker 5: in my projections, I still have it at twelve point seventy.

409
00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:48,280
Speaker 4: Five, and I don't know.

410
00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:51,840
Speaker 5: I don't want any part of I definitely don't want

411
00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:55,080
Speaker 5: the Broncos based on what we just saw out of them,

412
00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:57,800
Speaker 5: but I do not want the Chiefs in this spot

413
00:18:57,840 --> 00:18:59,800
Speaker 5: because they're just This is not a spot in which

414
00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:01,679
Speaker 5: they it's orkly cover that said, I know if I

415
00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:05,120
Speaker 5: were to look through like different trends databases, we would

416
00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:08,359
Speaker 5: definitely see something that says you want to bet on

417
00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:11,000
Speaker 5: a team that just got their butts handed to them,

418
00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:14,639
Speaker 5: like the next game, Like you know, they lose by thirty,

419
00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:18,680
Speaker 5: they probably cover like a sixty percent rate, sixty five

420
00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:21,200
Speaker 5: percent rate the next week. I'm sure there's a trend

421
00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:23,879
Speaker 5: like that, like this is the spot to be betting

422
00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:24,800
Speaker 5: on the Broncos.

423
00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:25,959
Speaker 4: But I don't want to do it.

424
00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:28,280
Speaker 1: I think you make a very good case for that.

425
00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:30,199
Speaker 1: But I say exactly saying I don't want to do

426
00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:31,880
Speaker 1: it either. Does that mean you just stay away from

427
00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:32,120
Speaker 1: this game?

428
00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:33,160
Speaker 4: Fits? What are your thoughts?

429
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:37,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, humiliation is a great motivator, and I think we're

430
00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,399
Speaker 2: going to see a good effort from the Broncos in

431
00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:42,880
Speaker 2: one of their last two games, because every team wants

432
00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:46,360
Speaker 2: to go into the season. Like if a team looks

433
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:50,360
Speaker 2: terrible the few weeks like running up to Week eighteen,

434
00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:53,600
Speaker 2: I like betting those teams in Week eighteen because I

435
00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 2: know that, uh you know, like I've had players tell

436
00:19:57,119 --> 00:19:59,639
Speaker 2: me that when I used to like interview players at

437
00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:02,359
Speaker 2: when I was at Pro Football weekly in a different

438
00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:07,080
Speaker 2: lifetime that you know, they get fired up for Week

439
00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:08,760
Speaker 2: eight team because they do not want to go into

440
00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:11,439
Speaker 2: the offseason with a bad taste in their mouth, like

441
00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:14,639
Speaker 2: they want to feel at least some pride that you know.

442
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:18,080
Speaker 2: They played all the way to the whistle, so to speak,

443
00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:21,680
Speaker 2: and so I could see Denver getting it together at

444
00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,359
Speaker 2: some point. But man, like, the one thing this team

445
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:26,840
Speaker 2: had going for them was their defense, and they did

446
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:31,919
Speaker 2: not hold the Rams to any sort of scoreless drive yesterday.

447
00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:35,000
Speaker 2: Until the Rams knelt down.

448
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:35,680
Speaker 3: At the end of the game.

449
00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:39,800
Speaker 2: They've scored points on every single offensive drive. So this game,

450
00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:42,359
Speaker 2: I mean, it definitely has the feel of a squash match.

451
00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:45,560
Speaker 2: And I will bet the UH spread gets to fifteen

452
00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,159
Speaker 2: at some point this week. I think it's going to

453
00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:51,720
Speaker 2: go up that high soul surprise me.

454
00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:52,640
Speaker 4: I mean they've imploded.

455
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:57,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, if this moves, if this moves through fourteen, I

456
00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,280
Speaker 5: will fill honor bound at that point to bet on

457
00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:01,840
Speaker 5: the Colts. I'm dot colest the Broncos, just as I

458
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:05,040
Speaker 5: did last time. These two teams late and amazingly they

459
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:06,920
Speaker 5: got the cover. And it's not like I felt great

460
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 5: about it then. I just think I got lucky but

461
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:11,520
Speaker 5: if it goes through fourteen, I'm probably betting it.

462
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:15,200
Speaker 2: I guarantee it's gonna happen, and I like, like you.

463
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,560
Speaker 2: I have seen the Chiefs act like the cat who

464
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:21,200
Speaker 2: caught the mouse and batted around all season and not

465
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:23,560
Speaker 2: cover these big numbers, so I might have to join

466
00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:25,560
Speaker 2: you if it does go over fourteen and I think

467
00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:26,200
Speaker 2: it's going to.

468
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:27,960
Speaker 1: Let's take a quick break in the action to tell

469
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 1: you about bet MGM, the King of sportsbooks.

470
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477
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Speaker 1: New York, New Jersey, Pensylvania, port Rico, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington, DC,

478
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Speaker 1: West Virginia, Wyoming, and Ontario only. Must be twenty one

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Speaker 1: excludes Michigan dissociated persons. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem called

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Speaker 1: one hundred next SEP in Arizona one one hundred and

485
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Speaker 1: five to tw two four seven zero zero in Colorado, DC, Kansas,

486
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Speaker 1: Louisiana and Nevada, Wyoming or Virginia one hundred and two

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Speaker 1: seven zero seven one seven for confidential help in Michigan

488
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:18,359
Speaker 1: one hundred gambler Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey or West Virginia

489
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Speaker 1: one eight hundred bets off in Iowa one hundred nine

490
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Speaker 1: eight one zero zero two three putrico called eight seven

491
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Speaker 1: to seven eight hop E n Y or text hop

492
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Speaker 1: E n Y. In New York, call or text the

493
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Speaker 1: Tennessee Redline at one eight hundred eight eight nine nine

494
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:30,199
Speaker 1: seven eight nine in Tennessee or called one eight eight

495
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:32,600
Speaker 1: eight seven seven seven nine six nine six in Mississippi and Ontario.

496
00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:34,400
Speaker 1: You have questions or concerns doctor, gambling or something close

497
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:36,880
Speaker 1: to you, please contact Connects Ontario at eight six six, five,

498
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Speaker 1: three one two six zero zero tos between avisor free

499
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,200
Speaker 1: of charge. Sports betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii, Ohio,

500
00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:43,240
Speaker 1: and Utah and other states where prohibitive and promotional offers

501
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 1: not available in Vada and New York. And now back

502
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:47,640
Speaker 1: to the action, all right, talk about two teams going

503
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 1: in weird places here at the Miami Dolphins eight and

504
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 1: seven the Patriots seven and eight. The Dolphins, though have

505
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:54,679
Speaker 1: lost four in a row. They had a game in

506
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 1: hand this past weekend yesterday, I did not work out.

507
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 1: They are one and a half point Faid's going into

508
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 1: New England. Forty three and a half is the number

509
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:04,119
Speaker 1: plus one h two on the money line. If you

510
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 1: like the Patriots to win outright, fits, this is a

511
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,639
Speaker 1: really tough one. I mean, here's a stat that this

512
00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:11,840
Speaker 1: will probably make you depress, especially where a Patriots fan.

513
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 1: The Patriots special teams and defense have scored more combined

514
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:17,240
Speaker 1: points than the offense this year.

515
00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 4: Just chew on that.

516
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:20,840
Speaker 1: Everybody to tell you where the pets, the Pats offense

517
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 1: is right now. So fits, when you're looking at this

518
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:25,720
Speaker 1: game right now, is forty three and a half really

519
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:27,159
Speaker 1: the number we should be looking at and paying the

520
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:28,920
Speaker 1: most attention to and looking for maybe the under.

521
00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've got this projected at forty three. So I'm

522
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:34,919
Speaker 2: a little bit on the under. And a lot of

523
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 2: that is just the way Tua Tongue of Iloa has

524
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 2: played the last four weeks or so. He just hasn't

525
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:42,680
Speaker 2: been as sharp as he was earlier in the year.

526
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 2: And he just gave that game to the Packers on

527
00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:47,919
Speaker 2: Christmas Day. That was a gift under the tree for

528
00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:50,439
Speaker 2: the Green Bay Packers to take in the second half.

529
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm not if anything, I'm probably going to

530
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 2: bet the under here, and I might I might even

531
00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 2: be tempted into betting the Patriots as a home against

532
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 2: a warm weather team, Like if Tua had been clicking

533
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,439
Speaker 2: the last couple of weeks, different story. I might not

534
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:11,639
Speaker 2: be as eager. Of course, this line might be more like,

535
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:15,920
Speaker 2: you know, Dolphins by three, But man, I can't take

536
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 2: the Dolphins as a road favorite right now.

537
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 1: Well, look, I totally understand where you're coming from. This

538
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:25,120
Speaker 1: is quite implosion from the Dolphins to Freedman, because you're

539
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:27,879
Speaker 1: looking at a team that had very high aspirations is

540
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 1: running high and then everything's just kind of come crashing

541
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:34,280
Speaker 1: down this last month all over the Miami Dolphins, and

542
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:35,720
Speaker 1: some of their points have been good, but you know,

543
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,119
Speaker 1: like they should have beat the Packers. Let's be honest,

544
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:39,640
Speaker 1: Like that's a game at home, you need to beat

545
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:40,160
Speaker 1: the Packers.

546
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:41,400
Speaker 4: What are your thoughts on this game?

547
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:43,200
Speaker 1: Are you where Fits is too or New England size

548
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:44,440
Speaker 1: actually the one it's more appealing.

549
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, as Fits with talking and I'm literally hitting the

550
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:52,639
Speaker 5: button right now. I bet I bet the Patriots at

551
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,200
Speaker 5: plus two and a half at FanDuel, which is kind

552
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:58,399
Speaker 5: of the rogue outline number in the market because it

553
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,360
Speaker 5: is plus one plus US one and a half at

554
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,639
Speaker 5: every other book out there, and I haven't projected at

555
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:08,159
Speaker 5: plus one. And it's not that I think the Patriots

556
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 5: are that good of a team, but they have a

557
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 5: pretty good defense. They are at home, they're they're playing

558
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,879
Speaker 5: a warm weather team in conditions that aren't gonna be

559
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:18,679
Speaker 5: like what we saw last week, but aren't going to

560
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 5: be good. And the Dolphins, you know, during the Tua era,

561
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:26,639
Speaker 5: have been especially good at home but not really good

562
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 5: on the road. And you know, they've been good as underdogs,

563
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,199
Speaker 5: not really good as favorites and so you're kind of

564
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:36,360
Speaker 5: aligning the two areas where this team hasn't been at

565
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:37,119
Speaker 5: its strongest.

566
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:41,200
Speaker 4: So I am. I am on the Patriots.

567
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 5: I don't feel great about it, but you know at

568
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:46,119
Speaker 5: two and a half at FanDuel or really wherever it is,

569
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:48,159
Speaker 5: that you're still able to get to even one and

570
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 5: a half.

571
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:52,120
Speaker 4: I like that, okay, because I have this at one

572
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 4: all right?

573
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 1: The New York Giants let one slip through their fingers.

574
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 1: In Minnesota, they are at home three point favorites against

575
00:25:59,040 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 1: the Colts.

576
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:01,919
Speaker 4: This feels just about right to me.

577
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 1: In fact, maybe the Giants be favored by more. To

578
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:05,359
Speaker 1: tell you the truth, we'll see what the Colts have

579
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:07,399
Speaker 1: and sotore for us tonight before we kind of assess

580
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 1: them completely. Forty and a half is the number plus

581
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 1: one forty on the money life. You like the Colts, Freeman,

582
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:13,239
Speaker 1: I'm on the Giants side of this game, and this

583
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,880
Speaker 1: is one where I think the number is actually too

584
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:17,800
Speaker 1: small for the Giants. I think they should be favored

585
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 1: by more at home in this situation, especially this time

586
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:21,920
Speaker 1: of year.

587
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 4: What are your thoughts?

588
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 5: I agree, I have a Giants minus four, and I

589
00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:31,240
Speaker 5: mean I will say, like the spot where Daniel Jones

590
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:34,400
Speaker 5: has crushed historically, has been as a road underdog, and

591
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:37,199
Speaker 5: you know, we saw that again this past week. He

592
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 5: hasn't done as well as a home favorite. But you know,

593
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:43,000
Speaker 5: and again we kind of have to wait and see

594
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:45,720
Speaker 5: what we get out of the Colts tonight on Monday

595
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 5: Night Football. But based on the numbers we have right now,

596
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 5: I'm with you. I have Giants minus four. I haven't

597
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:54,679
Speaker 5: bet it yet. I'm a little bit hesitant, but I

598
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 5: probably should given that it's at the key number of

599
00:26:57,280 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 5: three right now.

600
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:00,920
Speaker 4: Fits. What are your thoughts here about this giant number?

601
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:03,120
Speaker 1: Un agreement too, that it feels like a little too

602
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:05,240
Speaker 1: too much respect for the Colts.

603
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:08,439
Speaker 2: Absolutely, I bet it at three already. I've got it

604
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,440
Speaker 2: projected at four and a half. And again, like, I'm

605
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,640
Speaker 2: really worried about how the Colts come out after that

606
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 2: horrible loss at Minnesota and then in this game, they're

607
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 2: going to be coming off They're going to be have

608
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 2: a short week of preparation for it six days. So

609
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 2: like this this line gives them way too much credit,

610
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 2: I think.

611
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:27,919
Speaker 1: Okay, next one on the slate here we have the

612
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles six and

613
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:32,639
Speaker 1: a half point favorites at home. Forty three and a

614
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:34,359
Speaker 1: half is the number plus two forty five.

615
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 4: For the New Orleans Saints.

616
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 1: Pat any early value in this one here for an

617
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:40,679
Speaker 1: Eagles team kind of looking as wounds after a loss

618
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,240
Speaker 1: on Christmas Eve to the Cowboys.

619
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:46,000
Speaker 2: I don't know if there is, Joe, because they are

620
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:48,879
Speaker 2: going to have either Gardner Minshew at quarterback or a

621
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:52,199
Speaker 2: less than one hundred percent healthy Jalen Hurts. And the

622
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:55,160
Speaker 2: Saints defense has been pretty good lately. They've held six

623
00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:59,360
Speaker 2: straight opponents to twenty points or less, so I think

624
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 2: maybe the same are capable of turning this one into

625
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 2: sort of a mud wrestling match, and you know, the

626
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,120
Speaker 2: keeping the total low, keeping it close.

627
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:11,119
Speaker 3: So yeah, like I can't.

628
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:12,960
Speaker 2: Bet on the Eagles is a big favorite right now

629
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 2: against a good defense, and with their quarterback situation, you know,

630
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 2: not as not.

631
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:22,159
Speaker 3: As much of an exclamation point as it has been.

632
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:24,960
Speaker 1: You know, to your point, Pat, two, if if Jalen

633
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 1: Hurts does come back and play and they win this game,

634
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:28,920
Speaker 1: and then they get in there.

635
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:31,159
Speaker 4: If you look at the movement.

636
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 1: On MVP, it's Patrick Mahomes on fandle right now at

637
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 1: minus five hundred, and now Jalen Hurts has moved to

638
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 1: plus eleven hundred all of a sudden. I mean, what

639
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 1: an incredible MVP caliber moment that would be for Jalen Hurts.

640
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 1: This is a fascinating opportunity to get back into the

641
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts market for MVP if you missed it, because

642
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 1: I'm somebody who has mahomes and has locked it in

643
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 1: early on, and I'm even saying maybe it's time to

644
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 1: hedge a little bit because that is a fantastic number,

645
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 1: just pointing that out there. If if he plays Friedman,

646
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 1: what are your thoughts on this game? If Erks plays

647
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:01,080
Speaker 1: or doesn't.

648
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 5: I have it projected right now as if it's going

649
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 5: to be Gardner Minshew. And with that, I'm seeing value

650
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 5: on the Saints, not like a world of value. The

651
00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 5: numbers at six and a half in the market, and

652
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:17,760
Speaker 5: I have it at five point two five. I mean,

653
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 5: the number is actually at seven at a few books,

654
00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 5: and I don't know if it moves there across the market,

655
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 5: but if it hits seven, I will be betting on

656
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 5: the Saints.

657
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:31,120
Speaker 1: Okay, let's continue on here to the next game, which

658
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 1: is the Cleveland Browns and Washington Commanders. It is it

659
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 1: gonna be hide games? It gonna be once? I don't

660
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 1: know two and a half points, the washingt commander's favorite

661
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 1: at home. Forty and a half is the number plus

662
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:44,080
Speaker 1: once sixteen. Excuse me if you like the Cleveland Browns, Friedman,

663
00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 1: anything you like in this game early on that jumps

664
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:46,400
Speaker 1: out to you.

665
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:49,960
Speaker 4: I like Cleveland in this spot.

666
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 5: I bet it in the look ahead, Fits is shaking

667
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 5: his head and vehemently disagrees. I mean, I don't think

668
00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 5: Washington is good. I think it's going to be WinCE

669
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:02,880
Speaker 5: and I don't know, honestly if that's a downgrade or

670
00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 5: not from Taylor Heineke. I think it's probably lateral. But

671
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 5: I have this Cleveland should be favored by zero point

672
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 5: two five points, you know, so I bet it in

673
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 5: the look ahead of plus two. I guess I was

674
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 5: wrong and that the numbers out plus two and a

675
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:20,720
Speaker 5: half in the market. Maybe it will continue to move

676
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 5: against me, but it fits. What is your take on this,

677
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:26,080
Speaker 5: because it seems like you're on the other side here.

678
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:28,760
Speaker 3: I am on the other side. I've got this projected.

679
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 2: Is like I think this game should be about to

680
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 2: pick them and like, I don't know what I'm missing

681
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 2: with Cleveland. I know their past defense has gotten better,

682
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 2: like it was really bad early in the season, and

683
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 2: then like over the last five weeks or four weeks

684
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:44,600
Speaker 2: going into Week sixteen at least, they've been like second

685
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 2: in DBOA over the pretty previous month in past defense.

686
00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 2: But still, like this offense just has not clicked with

687
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 2: Deshaun Watson. And I know, granted, conditions were just inhuman

688
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 2: in Cleveland on for a Week sixteen, so I'm not

689
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 2: holding that against him, But the Commander's just lost thirty

690
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:07,560
Speaker 2: seven to twenty to the forty nine ers and that

691
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:09,840
Speaker 2: was the first time they'd given up more than twenty

692
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,840
Speaker 2: one points in a game since Week four. Like, this

693
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:15,920
Speaker 2: defense is legit, and they just got Chase youngback. So

694
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 2: they've got Chase Young and Montese Sweat on the edges

695
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 2: and Jonathan Allen up front. That is a pain in

696
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 2: the rear of a defense to contend with.

697
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 3: And like for this offense that hasn't done well.

698
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:31,959
Speaker 2: I know they're going to try to be run heavy

699
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 2: and you know, take some of the steam out of

700
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:38,720
Speaker 2: that pass rush, but man, I just like I don't

701
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 2: understand and I think you have also been valuing you know,

702
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 2: Cleveland a lot higher than I have for a while now,

703
00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 2: and it seems like we're on opposite ends of this.

704
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:52,000
Speaker 2: But I'm I'm the odd ball based on what the

705
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:54,600
Speaker 2: market has been like, I'm the guy who doesn't think

706
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 2: the Browns are very good and the market is telling

707
00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 2: us something else.

708
00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:00,480
Speaker 5: No, well, Fitz, you and I have this projected almost

709
00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 5: exactly the same. I have this at point twenty five.

710
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:07,479
Speaker 5: You have it at pick em. The commanders are favored

711
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 5: by two and a half.

712
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 3: Wait, the command I thought the Browns were favored in.

713
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 1: The commanders are favored all right, our commanders are two

714
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 1: and a half.

715
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, ship, I didn't realize that my fault.

716
00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:21,280
Speaker 1: I thought, deep it out look at that we got

717
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:23,600
Speaker 1: all the way here seventeen weeks.

718
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 3: All right, I guess I'm I guess I'm on the Browns.

719
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 3: Then I guess I'm on the brown.

720
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 4: Yeah.

721
00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:33,480
Speaker 5: I think I don't like. I don't like this spot.

722
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:35,560
Speaker 5: I don't actually like being on the Browns here.

723
00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:36,480
Speaker 4: No, I don't.

724
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:39,720
Speaker 5: I don't see like why the commanders should be favored

725
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:42,960
Speaker 5: by this much. I guess it's just home field advantage.

726
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 5: That's what the difference is But Joe, I'm fine with

727
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 5: us leaving.

728
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 3: Get this, get me out of this game.

729
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, man, I like standards and practices are gonna be

730
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 1: all over. Let's go to San Francisco in Las Vegas, everybody,

731
00:32:57,200 --> 00:33:00,280
Speaker 1: let's do that. One brock party continues due at the

732
00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 1: job done. The forty nine Ers are six point favorites

733
00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:04,840
Speaker 1: over the Las Vegas Raiders, as they should be. Forty

734
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 1: four is the number plus two fifteen on the Vegas side.

735
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 1: If you like them for the upset fits, I'm gonna

736
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 1: have to sit with you and Ralphie and put some

737
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 1: light boy in your mouth here after the rest of

738
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 1: the show. But in the meantime, tell me about San

739
00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:19,560
Speaker 1: Francisco Vegas.

740
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 4: Here.

741
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:22,400
Speaker 1: Is this number big enough for the forty nine Ers

742
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 1: compared to all the mistakes and all the issues of

743
00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 1: the Vegas Raiders.

744
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 3: Probably not.

745
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 2: I've got the forty nine ers projected at seven here

746
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 2: a little over seven. Forty nine Ers have won eight

747
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 2: straight and their average margin of victory over that stretch

748
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:43,320
Speaker 2: is sixteen point six points. I mean, they haven't lost

749
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:47,960
Speaker 2: going back to October twenty third, Joe, and shout out

750
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 2: to Matthew Friedman for putting me on the under on

751
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:55,280
Speaker 2: the Raiders season long win total of eight and a half,

752
00:33:55,440 --> 00:34:01,160
Speaker 2: which officially came in on Christmas Eve with the Steelers

753
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 2: defeating the Raiders in that one. I just the forty

754
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 2: nine Ers offense can just hurt you in so many ways,

755
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:10,600
Speaker 2: and the Raiders defense is thirty second, dead last in

756
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:14,080
Speaker 2: Dboa Like hard for me to see them hanging with

757
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 2: the Niners in this one.

758
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 1: All right, Freevean, what's your take here on the forty

759
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:19,520
Speaker 1: nine Ers. I know they've been riding high, but do

760
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:23,400
Speaker 1: you think that this number six is going to be

761
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 1: close at all?

762
00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:27,640
Speaker 5: I haven't projected at six and a half, So I'm

763
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:30,880
Speaker 5: I'm right in the neighborhood, and I gotta say I

764
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 5: am just I'm really impressed by what we've seen out

765
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 5: of the forty nine Ers. Ever since the Jimmy Garoppolo

766
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:42,879
Speaker 5: injury I had with Garoppolo, this team power rated at

767
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:46,160
Speaker 5: five point seventy five. That was the highest that they

768
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:50,360
Speaker 5: ever got in the power ratings. And then when Garoppolo

769
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,040
Speaker 5: went out, they brought in brock Purty. I thought that

770
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:55,359
Speaker 5: would be a pretty significant downgrade, both because I think

771
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:59,800
Speaker 5: Garoppolo has been underappreciated for what he's done within that offense.

772
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:02,960
Speaker 5: He's not a great quarterback, but he knows that system

773
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 5: really well and fits the system pretty well, operates well

774
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:08,760
Speaker 5: within what they want him to do. With Rock Party,

775
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:12,960
Speaker 5: you know, seventh round rookie quarterback coming in, I thought

776
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:16,240
Speaker 5: there would be a significant downgrade, and maybe in terms

777
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 5: of like real life ability, there is a downgrade. But

778
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:24,239
Speaker 5: Shanahan has been able to scheme so incredibly well for

779
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:27,520
Speaker 5: Brock Party that there hasn't been a drop off. And

780
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:31,520
Speaker 5: so I've, you know, incrementally each week been bumping the

781
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:33,759
Speaker 5: forty nine ers back up, and now I have them

782
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 5: exactly at five point seventy five. I have them right

783
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 5: where they were when Garoppolo went out, and I'm still

784
00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 5: potentially too low on them, Like at this point, I

785
00:35:44,080 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 5: think they are right there for being the best team

786
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:48,759
Speaker 5: in the NFC. I think their defense is better than

787
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:52,359
Speaker 5: the defense that we see with the Eagles, and you know,

788
00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 5: if if Hurts isn't his healthy self, they might have

789
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:59,719
Speaker 5: the better offense. So I am really impressed by San

790
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:02,880
Speaker 5: france Go and I think that this number of six

791
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 5: is just a little too short.

792
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:06,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say this, I think you're a hundred percent right.

793
00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:09,640
Speaker 1: It's been great what brock Perry's been able to do.

794
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:11,920
Speaker 1: I do think eventually though, in the playoffs, you know

795
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,040
Speaker 1: you're gonna need your quarterback to do something more in

796
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:15,440
Speaker 1: one of these big spots, and I just don't know

797
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:17,399
Speaker 1: if he's up to task. So there's a danger here

798
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 1: of overrating the forty nine ers in the postseason market,

799
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,720
Speaker 1: and I'd be very careful about doing everyone very careful

800
00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 1: the New York Jets right now, everybody is saying prayers

801
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 1: in church in the New York area for Mike White's

802
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 1: ribs and that scan he's having today. Hopefully they get

803
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:34,080
Speaker 1: him back. Otherwise, who knows what this game is going

804
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:35,880
Speaker 1: to be. The Jets are going to travel to Seattle.

805
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:38,040
Speaker 1: Seattle is one and a half point favorites at home.

806
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 1: They have played terrible football the last few weeks. Forty

807
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:43,400
Speaker 1: three is the number. Look, it's all minus money on

808
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:46,200
Speaker 1: the money line here, minus one to five on the Jets, though.

809
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 1: J justs defense is really good, Friedman like, they continue to,

810
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 1: you know, just rely on that defense. But you got

811
00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 1: to get some offense. That's the problem. They clearly don't

812
00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:56,880
Speaker 1: want to go to Flacco here. I don't know if

813
00:36:56,920 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 1: you're going to get Zach Wilson. If you do, it's

814
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:01,680
Speaker 1: hard to like the Jets even in this spot. What

815
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:03,799
Speaker 1: are your thoughts here? Do you want to bet this

816
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:06,400
Speaker 1: now in hopes that Mike White gets cleared or do

817
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:07,920
Speaker 1: you want to stay away from this and then just

818
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:09,680
Speaker 1: take it when you have a clearer picture?

819
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 4: Uh?

820
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 5: I I have value on Seattle right now. I don't know.

821
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:18,239
Speaker 5: The Mike White situation is really hard to figure out.

822
00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 5: I don't think it's gonna be Zach Wilson.

823
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:23,720
Speaker 4: Uh. I just I think he's he's done, So I agree.

824
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:26,920
Speaker 5: Uh, you know, maybe it's Flacco, Maybe it's is it Streveler,

825
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 5: you know cfl legend Streveler.

826
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:33,560
Speaker 4: Uh, you know, maybe it's him. Uh.

827
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:36,480
Speaker 5: But you know, with the Mike White situation with the ribs,

828
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 5: like I thought he was going to be able to

829
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:41,279
Speaker 5: play the week after he suffered the injury because he

830
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:44,160
Speaker 5: was able to gut it out in that game. Uh,

831
00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:46,880
Speaker 5: but then evidently wasn't cleared, you know, and then hasn't

832
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 5: been clear for two games now. So it's just given

833
00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:52,480
Speaker 5: that he's already missed back to back games, I think

834
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:55,840
Speaker 5: there's a decent chance he still misses this game. But

835
00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:58,239
Speaker 5: I you know, I have no idea really how to

836
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:00,520
Speaker 5: handicap it because I don't think it's gonna be Zach White.

837
00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 5: I just don't know the quarterback situation. But I am

838
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 5: on Seattle. Yeah, I don't think it's gonna be Zach Wilson.

839
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:08,600
Speaker 5: So I am on Seattle in this spot. I haven't

840
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:11,759
Speaker 5: projected it two and a half, but it's it's very tentative.

841
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:14,719
Speaker 4: All right, Fitz, what are your thoughts here on this one?

842
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:17,759
Speaker 1: Because I if it is Mike White, I really like

843
00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 1: the Jets in this spot. I'm gonna be honest with you,

844
00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 1: but what do you think here?

845
00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:25,840
Speaker 3: I have a little value on Seattle too, kind of

846
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:27,840
Speaker 3: thinking that it won't be Mike White.

847
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:31,000
Speaker 2: And I guess one concern that I had had with

848
00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 2: the Seahawks coming into this one was that in the

849
00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:37,359
Speaker 2: previous month or so, their running game had stopped working

850
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:40,399
Speaker 2: and their run defense had gone just completely belly up.

851
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:42,800
Speaker 2: Like they've been giving up I think over two hundred

852
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 2: rushing yards a game over the last month, and like

853
00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:49,319
Speaker 2: they had kind of run into the mud with their

854
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 2: running game and Kenneth Walker not being affected. But then

855
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:55,480
Speaker 2: Walker runs for one hundred yards against the Chiefs, and

856
00:38:56,000 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 2: you know they didn't get trampled by the Chiefs running game,

857
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:02,520
Speaker 2: So you know, maybe they're not the running game on

858
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 2: both sides of the ball. Not the weakness I was

859
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:09,440
Speaker 2: worried about going into Week sixteen. On the other hand, like,

860
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 2: the one thing that I want to bet here is

861
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:14,799
Speaker 2: the total. I don't understand why it's so high. We've

862
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:18,080
Speaker 2: seen eight of the last ten Jets games play under

863
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:22,359
Speaker 2: forty points. I mean, their defense is legit, even though

864
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:25,120
Speaker 2: it didn't look very good against the Jaguars last week.

865
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:28,399
Speaker 2: But they'll have had extra prep time. I think they're

866
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:30,640
Speaker 2: going to come out breathing fire after kind of getting

867
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:33,759
Speaker 2: humiliated by the Jags a bit in Week sixteen. And

868
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:36,960
Speaker 2: you know, Seattle's offense is kind of at low EBB

869
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 2: right now.

870
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:39,640
Speaker 3: So I like the under here a lot.

871
00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:43,680
Speaker 1: All right, The Minnesota Vikings the team of destiny could be.

872
00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 1: They are now twelve and three. I know Fitz does

873
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:48,560
Speaker 1: not like to hear that for you, so we'll keep

874
00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:50,960
Speaker 1: this one. Sure, green Bay Packers go to seven and eight.

875
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:56,120
Speaker 1: They are three point favorites in this game in Green Bay.

876
00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:58,839
Speaker 4: Now, look, I get it.

877
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:02,480
Speaker 1: I understand, Elements, I said, but what more do do

878
00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:04,799
Speaker 1: the Vikings have to do to prove the heart of

879
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 1: this team, to prove how amazing Justin Jefferson is and

880
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:10,799
Speaker 1: what an incredible talent he is, Kirk Cousins, Can we

881
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 1: give him a little bit more credit can be?

882
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:15,239
Speaker 4: I mean, I understand it's in the.

883
00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:18,200
Speaker 1: Elements's outdoors blah blah blah, all this stuff. Every time

884
00:40:18,239 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 1: I feel like we come here every week the Minnesota

885
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:22,279
Speaker 1: Vikings will get any respect and they keep turning around

886
00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:23,240
Speaker 1: to winning football games.

887
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:24,360
Speaker 4: Fits.

888
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:26,879
Speaker 1: I know it's the Packers. I know they come off

889
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:29,640
Speaker 1: a win here, they're feeling good about them. But still

890
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:33,799
Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings three point underdogs. I'm taking the Vikings here.

891
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:37,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, make no mistake show the Vikings are

892
00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:39,239
Speaker 2: not as good as their record, and they're not even

893
00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:40,640
Speaker 2: close to as good as their record.

894
00:40:40,680 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 1: It's just matter though, sometimes, like sometimes don't we have

895
00:40:43,200 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 1: this thing where teams just have that weird thing going

896
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:48,719
Speaker 1: Everything just breaks their way. I mean the forty nine

897
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:50,440
Speaker 1: ers did the year they went to the Super Bowl, right,

898
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:51,920
Speaker 1: I mean, they weren't the best team that you were

899
00:40:51,920 --> 00:40:54,719
Speaker 1: at Garoppolo, everything bounced their way. He Mostard has a

900
00:40:54,760 --> 00:40:56,440
Speaker 1: huge playoff game and nowhere next thing you know, they're

901
00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:58,439
Speaker 1: in the super Bowl. It feels like the Vikings could

902
00:40:58,480 --> 00:40:59,520
Speaker 1: just be that team this year.

903
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 2: So what you're saying, Joe, and Friedman's a Seinfeld fan,

904
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:08,640
Speaker 2: You're saying, they've got the Kovorka, you know, on the surface,

905
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:11,120
Speaker 2: on the surface, it's ugly, but like there's just.

906
00:41:11,120 --> 00:41:13,399
Speaker 1: The Uh, Aaron Rodgers better show up wearing a whole

907
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:14,000
Speaker 1: thing of garlic.

908
00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:14,759
Speaker 4: That's all I'm saying.

909
00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:18,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the Packers, like I don't even have

910
00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:20,840
Speaker 2: a good handle on them as a Packers fan, Like

911
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:25,160
Speaker 2: they can look terrible and great within the span of

912
00:41:25,360 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 2: the same game.

913
00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 1: Uh.

914
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 2: But to some extent, Joe, I see what you're saying

915
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 2: to have the Vikings be outside the framework of a

916
00:41:35,320 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 2: field goal differential in this one. Like, I do want

917
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:41,279
Speaker 2: to bet the Vikings because, like they're going to stay

918
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 2: in this game, They're probably going to pull it out

919
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:46,839
Speaker 2: at the end. You know, I think the Packers might

920
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 2: actually be the better team, but I don't want to

921
00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:52,959
Speaker 2: bet them covering three and a half against a team

922
00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:54,560
Speaker 2: that has the Koborka.

923
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:58,839
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about the Kovorka here. Friedman you

924
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 1: know what I know. Sometimes you just can't explain certain things.

925
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:06,560
Speaker 1: The Vikingsworth team historically lost every close game. Now the

926
00:42:06,600 --> 00:42:07,879
Speaker 1: team that wins every close game.

927
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:08,480
Speaker 4: And when that.

928
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:10,759
Speaker 1: Happens, you start to believe that anytime you get down

929
00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:11,520
Speaker 1: you're going to win.

930
00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:12,239
Speaker 4: I e.

931
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:14,920
Speaker 1: Two weeks ago, when you're down by thirty at halftime

932
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:16,799
Speaker 1: and you come back and win, at a certain point,

933
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:19,319
Speaker 1: you feel invincible. And that is a very dangerous thing,

934
00:42:19,440 --> 00:42:21,880
Speaker 1: especially when now, after doing this two weeks in a row,

935
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:25,719
Speaker 1: you're underdogs in your division rival spot on the road.

936
00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:26,600
Speaker 1: What do you think for Evan?

937
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:30,879
Speaker 5: Yeah, this number was three and a half last night

938
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:34,799
Speaker 5: when it reopened, and it's been bet to three, and

939
00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 5: so I'm a little bit upset with myself for not

940
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:43,080
Speaker 5: betting it then. But I haven't protected two point seventy five.

941
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:47,360
Speaker 5: And to Fitz's point about the Packers might actually be

942
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:52,279
Speaker 5: the better team, this might feel blasphemous just based on

943
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:53,920
Speaker 5: what we've seen out of their records and based on

944
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 5: how disappointing the Packers have been this year, but I

945
00:42:56,600 --> 00:42:59,359
Speaker 5: actually do have the Packers power rated at point twenty

946
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:03,400
Speaker 5: five points better than the Vikings on a neutral field,

947
00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:06,279
Speaker 5: and Lambeau is definitely not a neutral field like that

948
00:43:06,400 --> 00:43:06,719
Speaker 5: is a.

949
00:43:06,600 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 4: Tough place to play.

950
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:10,840
Speaker 5: Now, home field advantage doesn't mean as much in division,

951
00:43:11,160 --> 00:43:13,640
Speaker 5: both because a team normally doesn't have to travel as

952
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:16,359
Speaker 5: far and because they are more familiar with that field

953
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:20,160
Speaker 5: than they are a typical road game. So the home

954
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:22,960
Speaker 5: field advantage doesn't mean as much for the Packers here,

955
00:43:22,960 --> 00:43:25,759
Speaker 5: but it's still a pretty significant home field advantage.

956
00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 1: Guys, I talent you team of Destiny Minnesota Vikings. All right,

957
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:33,480
Speaker 1: the Battle of Los Angeles as if anybody really cares,

958
00:43:33,520 --> 00:43:36,200
Speaker 1: I don't know. The Los Angeles Rams five and ten

959
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:38,720
Speaker 1: coming off a huge victory over the Denver bron Goes.

960
00:43:39,080 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 1: They are seven point underdogs against the Chargers. They share

961
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:46,480
Speaker 1: this building. It's all the same minus seven here on

962
00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:48,399
Speaker 1: the Chargers side of this game. Forty and a half

963
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:50,200
Speaker 1: is the over runner plus two sixty five if you

964
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:53,000
Speaker 1: like the Rams. Look, I mean, I don't know what

965
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:54,760
Speaker 1: to make of this game. To be honest with you, Preven,

966
00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:59,000
Speaker 1: this one seems like just pure chaos to me because

967
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:00,879
Speaker 1: we don't know what Charger team going to show up tonight,

968
00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 1: and sometimes whatever Charger team shows up doesn't necessarily mean

969
00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 1: that's the same one that shows up week to week.

970
00:44:05,680 --> 00:44:07,319
Speaker 1: So what are your thoughts here on this Battle of

971
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:08,279
Speaker 1: Los Angeles.

972
00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:12,120
Speaker 5: So this line in the look ahead market, I believe

973
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:14,799
Speaker 5: was eight and a half and it moved to eight,

974
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 5: and now it's seven and a half. And you know,

975
00:44:18,080 --> 00:44:21,400
Speaker 5: based on what we see out of the Chargers tonight,

976
00:44:21,640 --> 00:44:24,320
Speaker 5: you know, maybe this gets to seven. Like the market

977
00:44:24,360 --> 00:44:27,520
Speaker 5: has been really bullish on the Rams for the past

978
00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 5: few weeks, and I think maybe we continue to see that.

979
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:34,800
Speaker 4: That said, like I am showing value on the chargers.

980
00:44:34,840 --> 00:44:36,520
Speaker 5: I have this at minus eight and a half, but

981
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:39,319
Speaker 5: I am I'm definitely not betting it right now. I

982
00:44:39,320 --> 00:44:41,400
Speaker 5: feel like I don't have a good read on the Rams,

983
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,040
Speaker 5: and maybe I don't have a good read on the

984
00:44:44,120 --> 00:44:46,319
Speaker 5: Chargers either, because they can they can be a little

985
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 5: bit hit or miss.

986
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:51,600
Speaker 1: Okay, how about your thoughts here on La versus La.

987
00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 2: When I was doing the projection for this one, I

988
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:59,920
Speaker 2: couldn't find a line for it and wasn't looking hard enough. Probably,

989
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:05,560
Speaker 2: but I had just watched the Rams, uh totally butcher

990
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:09,759
Speaker 2: the the Broncos, and I peg this at Chargers by

991
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:12,480
Speaker 2: four and a half. And maybe I'm giving the Rams

992
00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:17,120
Speaker 2: way too much credit because they looked fantastic. But I

993
00:45:17,160 --> 00:45:20,360
Speaker 2: don't know, maybe something about the Baker Mayfield Sean McVay

994
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:24,840
Speaker 2: pairing just works, you know, like maybe maybe this isn't

995
00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:28,080
Speaker 2: as sickly an offense as it's looked for so much

996
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 2: of this season, And could it be legitimate now? I mean,

997
00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:34,879
Speaker 2: cam Akers looked good yesterday. The offensive line looked the best.

998
00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:38,399
Speaker 1: It's loose against against a really good Denver defense too,

999
00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:42,279
Speaker 1: Like it's it's infuriating, like it's so bizarre, and that's

1000
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:44,280
Speaker 1: why I just can't hear this game.

1001
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:47,319
Speaker 5: This line, sorry dinner, and so yeah, this line is

1002
00:45:47,320 --> 00:45:49,759
Speaker 5: now it's seven, you know, like it was seven and

1003
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:52,680
Speaker 5: a half last night, it's seven this morning. I think

1004
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:55,840
Speaker 5: this moves below seven, you know, honestly, I would be waiting.

1005
00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:57,920
Speaker 5: I would be waiting for it to move below seven,

1006
00:45:58,080 --> 00:45:59,759
Speaker 5: just wait for it to continue to move towards the

1007
00:45:59,840 --> 00:46:02,200
Speaker 5: R and then I would bet on the Chargers and

1008
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:03,680
Speaker 5: like par assessment.

1009
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:06,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the Chargers are really good when they're hitting

1010
00:46:06,640 --> 00:46:08,840
Speaker 2: on all cylinders, but we haven't seen them hit on

1011
00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:12,800
Speaker 2: all cylinders very often this season. And there's like really

1012
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:14,600
Speaker 2: no home field advantage here.

1013
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:15,320
Speaker 3: I mean, it's.

1014
00:46:15,160 --> 00:46:18,879
Speaker 2: The they're a mutually shared home stadium, and yes, it's

1015
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:21,799
Speaker 2: going to be the Chargers season ticket holders. But you know,

1016
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:24,560
Speaker 2: I don't think the Chargers are known for their rabid

1017
00:46:24,640 --> 00:46:25,280
Speaker 2: fan base.

1018
00:46:26,920 --> 00:46:27,280
Speaker 4: Fits.

1019
00:46:27,520 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 5: One thing that's interesting is that there won't be the

1020
00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 5: typical home disadvantage that they have either, because it's not as.

1021
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:36,360
Speaker 3: If you with other fans exactly.

1022
00:46:36,480 --> 00:46:38,920
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, yes, no one will be rooting for anyone

1023
00:46:39,080 --> 00:46:39,560
Speaker 1: in this game.

1024
00:46:39,600 --> 00:46:40,280
Speaker 4: It'll be awesome.

1025
00:46:40,400 --> 00:46:43,440
Speaker 1: Everyone's just going to be taking selfies of themselves and

1026
00:46:43,480 --> 00:46:47,000
Speaker 1: posting them on Instagram. Let's go to the Baltimore Ravens

1027
00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:48,840
Speaker 1: at home. They are ten and five taking on the

1028
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:51,400
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers at seven and eight. Baltimore three and a

1029
00:46:51,400 --> 00:46:53,879
Speaker 1: half point favorites at home feels about right. Thirty six

1030
00:46:53,920 --> 00:46:56,040
Speaker 1: and a half is number plus one sixty five. You

1031
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:57,480
Speaker 1: like Pittsburgh for the upset here?

1032
00:46:57,520 --> 00:47:00,200
Speaker 4: Fits? Do you like Pittsburgh for the upset here?

1033
00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:02,520
Speaker 1: Or you think Baltimore just wins this one and covers

1034
00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:03,240
Speaker 1: the three and a half.

1035
00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:06,160
Speaker 3: I don't like Pittsburgh for the upset.

1036
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:09,640
Speaker 2: I think this line doesn't give enough heed to the

1037
00:47:09,680 --> 00:47:13,719
Speaker 2: possibility of Lamar Jackson maybe coming back this week, like

1038
00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:16,879
Speaker 2: I I'm gonna I have not hit this yet because

1039
00:47:16,920 --> 00:47:19,880
Speaker 2: I want to read up on the Lamar Jackson status

1040
00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:21,960
Speaker 2: and see if there's any see what some of the

1041
00:47:21,960 --> 00:47:23,479
Speaker 2: medical people have to say.

1042
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:28,840
Speaker 3: But I just feel like the pot odds maybe.

1043
00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:32,319
Speaker 2: Suggest a bet for the Ravens on this one, because

1044
00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:35,839
Speaker 2: I don't think the line accounts for that possibility enough

1045
00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:38,600
Speaker 2: and what Lamar Jackson would do to move the line

1046
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:41,560
Speaker 2: if he is in fact back in this one. Like

1047
00:47:41,600 --> 00:47:43,880
Speaker 2: I just I think the pot odds are right for

1048
00:47:43,880 --> 00:47:46,839
Speaker 2: about on the Ravens here if anything but.

1049
00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:48,880
Speaker 3: He does, if he doesn't come back, it's going to

1050
00:47:48,920 --> 00:47:49,560
Speaker 3: be a rock fight.

1051
00:47:50,480 --> 00:47:52,319
Speaker 4: Well that's the thing. It's a rock fight.

1052
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 1: Anything can happen here, especially when these two teams lock

1053
00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:56,520
Speaker 1: up late in the year. For even your thoughts here,

1054
00:47:56,800 --> 00:47:59,200
Speaker 1: is this a dangerous game here for Baltimore at the

1055
00:47:59,239 --> 00:47:59,960
Speaker 1: worst time of year?

1056
00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:03,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm I'm interested in the Steelers in this spot.

1057
00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:06,320
Speaker 5: This number was six in the look ahead market on Thursday.

1058
00:48:06,719 --> 00:48:09,640
Speaker 5: It opened at four last night, and it's been bet

1059
00:48:09,680 --> 00:48:11,560
Speaker 5: down to three and a half. Like this number is

1060
00:48:11,600 --> 00:48:15,720
Speaker 5: moving towards the Steelers. I have the projection at four

1061
00:48:15,719 --> 00:48:19,279
Speaker 5: point twenty five. Uh, and so the the more it

1062
00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:23,520
Speaker 5: moves towards the UH towards the Steelers, the more interested

1063
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:26,400
Speaker 5: at that point I will become in the Ravens. But

1064
00:48:26,880 --> 00:48:29,360
Speaker 5: you know, at this current market, I think it's about

1065
00:48:29,400 --> 00:48:31,560
Speaker 5: where it should be. If it hits the key number three,

1066
00:48:31,640 --> 00:48:33,160
Speaker 5: then I think it will have gone too far.

1067
00:48:33,960 --> 00:48:36,120
Speaker 1: Okay, last one here, Monday night football.

1068
00:48:36,120 --> 00:48:37,640
Speaker 4: This should be a great one. The first two times

1069
00:48:39,160 --> 00:48:42,799
Speaker 4: I think we skipped a game. I think there's panther.

1070
00:48:43,400 --> 00:48:45,320
Speaker 1: I apologies, how did that happen?

1071
00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:45,640
Speaker 4: Oh?

1072
00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:48,680
Speaker 1: Well, we can't skip that one because the Buccaneers are

1073
00:48:48,719 --> 00:48:50,360
Speaker 1: super exciting, they're great football.

1074
00:48:50,680 --> 00:48:53,359
Speaker 5: That's one we would want to skip. But that's an

1075
00:48:53,400 --> 00:48:54,200
Speaker 5: interesting game.

1076
00:48:54,719 --> 00:48:57,000
Speaker 1: All right, Well, my apologies everybody.

1077
00:48:57,080 --> 00:48:58,319
Speaker 4: We did skip a game here.

1078
00:48:58,520 --> 00:49:00,319
Speaker 1: Again, Maybe it was Freudi and maybe I just didn't

1079
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:02,520
Speaker 1: want to talk about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers anymore. The

1080
00:49:02,520 --> 00:49:04,640
Speaker 1: Bucks are five and a half point favorites. See, I

1081
00:49:04,719 --> 00:49:06,640
Speaker 1: was all excited to talk about Cincinnati Buffalo. Now I

1082
00:49:06,640 --> 00:49:08,759
Speaker 1: gotta wait. Five and a half point favorites the Tampa

1083
00:49:08,760 --> 00:49:11,480
Speaker 1: Bay Buccaneers. Forty one is the number plus two hundred

1084
00:49:11,960 --> 00:49:14,960
Speaker 1: on the Carolina Panthers side. Carolina is in this thing, folks,

1085
00:49:15,280 --> 00:49:16,080
Speaker 1: if you could believe it.

1086
00:49:16,200 --> 00:49:17,040
Speaker 4: Sam darnold.

1087
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:20,319
Speaker 1: They were running the football all over the place on

1088
00:49:20,400 --> 00:49:22,359
Speaker 1: a team that you hadn't previously been able to run

1089
00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:22,960
Speaker 1: the football on.

1090
00:49:23,320 --> 00:49:24,239
Speaker 4: So scrap that.

1091
00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:28,439
Speaker 1: Tom Brady and the Bucks looked completely just like crap.

1092
00:49:28,480 --> 00:49:30,400
Speaker 4: Let's be honest. They looked like crap last night.

1093
00:49:30,520 --> 00:49:33,000
Speaker 1: And every highlight you watch, everything was just not going

1094
00:49:33,040 --> 00:49:36,279
Speaker 1: well for them. Friedman usain't jud drew it back to

1095
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:37,799
Speaker 1: this game. What is it you see in this one

1096
00:49:37,840 --> 00:49:38,960
Speaker 1: that's got you so interested?

1097
00:49:39,239 --> 00:49:39,560
Speaker 4: Okay?

1098
00:49:39,600 --> 00:49:42,759
Speaker 5: In the look ahead market, this was seven last night,

1099
00:49:42,880 --> 00:49:44,719
Speaker 5: it was six and a half. I'm looking at the

1100
00:49:45,080 --> 00:49:47,960
Speaker 5: betting pros paid right now and it is four or

1101
00:49:48,000 --> 00:49:50,919
Speaker 5: four and a half, and this number should be three.

1102
00:49:51,800 --> 00:49:53,880
Speaker 4: Uh, Carolina has a good guess.

1103
00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:55,759
Speaker 1: One refresh again because I just refreshed again.

1104
00:49:55,840 --> 00:49:59,759
Speaker 4: It is three. It's three now. Wow, it's just refreshed. Good.

1105
00:50:00,120 --> 00:50:02,360
Speaker 1: You see what I'm seeing now. I literally just refreshed

1106
00:50:02,360 --> 00:50:04,439
Speaker 1: it since the beginning of the show we started. It's

1107
00:50:04,480 --> 00:50:06,520
Speaker 1: now three on the expert consensus line.

1108
00:50:07,000 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 4: Yeah. Uh, it's it's not a surprise.

1109
00:50:09,320 --> 00:50:13,759
Speaker 5: Yeah wowow wow yeah three three and a half a yeah,

1110
00:50:13,840 --> 00:50:16,960
Speaker 5: three yeah three at bet MGM three and a half

1111
00:50:17,000 --> 00:50:20,280
Speaker 5: at Draft Beings FanDuel three at Caesar's.

1112
00:50:20,400 --> 00:50:23,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean that's where this line should be. Uh.

1113
00:50:23,440 --> 00:50:26,200
Speaker 5: The idea, you know in the look ahead market four

1114
00:50:26,280 --> 00:50:29,280
Speaker 5: days ago that at home the Buccaneers should be favored

1115
00:50:29,280 --> 00:50:32,840
Speaker 5: by a touchdown, which is absolutely ludicrous. Like this was,

1116
00:50:33,160 --> 00:50:36,360
Speaker 5: especially at this point in the year, you tend not

1117
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:40,320
Speaker 5: to see in terms of like projections versus the actual

1118
00:50:40,360 --> 00:50:43,280
Speaker 5: spread that is posted. You tend not to see discrepancies

1119
00:50:43,480 --> 00:50:45,440
Speaker 5: that big where I had to go back and kind

1120
00:50:45,480 --> 00:50:48,080
Speaker 5: of double check just to make sure that there wasn't

1121
00:50:48,120 --> 00:50:52,400
Speaker 5: something wrong in my projections. And you know, I maybe

1122
00:50:52,400 --> 00:50:54,440
Speaker 5: it was just, hey, I'm giving too much credit to

1123
00:50:54,480 --> 00:50:57,440
Speaker 5: the Panthers, but the Panthers looked much better than I

1124
00:50:57,480 --> 00:51:01,520
Speaker 5: thought they were, and I had the Panthers like at

1125
00:51:01,600 --> 00:51:05,520
Speaker 5: three point underdogs will I really wasn't even giving the

1126
00:51:05,520 --> 00:51:09,239
Speaker 5: Panthers all that much credit, And so I think the

1127
00:51:09,239 --> 00:51:12,560
Speaker 5: Panthers are definitely the side to be betting here.

1128
00:51:13,680 --> 00:51:15,160
Speaker 4: Even with this number.

1129
00:51:14,920 --> 00:51:18,000
Speaker 5: At three, I think it's fine value at three and

1130
00:51:18,040 --> 00:51:19,960
Speaker 5: a half, I'm still leaning towards the Panthers.

1131
00:51:20,600 --> 00:51:22,560
Speaker 1: I'm actually glad now we brought this game back because

1132
00:51:22,560 --> 00:51:24,680
Speaker 1: of that wacky moment we just had fits. What do

1133
00:51:24,680 --> 00:51:27,000
Speaker 1: you think about these two teams. Who'd have thought we'd

1134
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:30,000
Speaker 1: be talking about the Carolina Panthers challenging the Tampa Bay

1135
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:31,880
Speaker 1: Buccaneers in Week seventeen.

1136
00:51:32,600 --> 00:51:35,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I was ready to slam the Panthers

1137
00:51:35,400 --> 00:51:37,440
Speaker 2: when it looked like this game was going to be

1138
00:51:37,719 --> 00:51:39,840
Speaker 2: five or five and a half or whatever. But with

1139
00:51:39,880 --> 00:51:42,520
Speaker 2: the line plummeting, I'm seeing a little bit less value.

1140
00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:45,279
Speaker 2: But I certainly would not be betting the Buccaneers in

1141
00:51:45,400 --> 00:51:48,239
Speaker 2: this one. Like the Panthers has been a different team

1142
00:51:48,280 --> 00:51:51,960
Speaker 2: since they fired Matt Ruhle. And I mean Tom Brady

1143
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:52,920
Speaker 2: looks like he's toast.

1144
00:51:53,400 --> 00:51:54,120
Speaker 3: He really does.

1145
00:51:55,400 --> 00:51:57,680
Speaker 2: Last night against the Cardinals, who I think were a

1146
00:51:57,719 --> 00:52:01,800
Speaker 2: bottom five team in DVO against the pass, and Brady

1147
00:52:02,000 --> 00:52:06,799
Speaker 2: averaged five point nine yards per attempt, one touchdown, two interceptions.

1148
00:52:06,840 --> 00:52:09,120
Speaker 3: Like, he just does not look good in this offense.

1149
00:52:09,280 --> 00:52:12,319
Speaker 2: Is you know Mike Evans, You're seeing the frustration on

1150
00:52:12,440 --> 00:52:14,440
Speaker 2: his face now throughout the game.

1151
00:52:15,960 --> 00:52:18,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, Like I like the Panthers here.

1152
00:52:18,000 --> 00:52:22,080
Speaker 2: I might be looking at a money line opportunity.

1153
00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:25,319
Speaker 1: Oh you speak in my language. There it's plus one

1154
00:52:25,440 --> 00:52:27,600
Speaker 1: fifty four. I thought it would be more. I probably

1155
00:52:27,680 --> 00:52:30,600
Speaker 1: was higher, but wow, crazy times all.

1156
00:52:30,600 --> 00:52:32,920
Speaker 5: Right, I gotta say here just just to follow up

1157
00:52:32,960 --> 00:52:37,080
Speaker 5: on Fitz's point. Okay, the defense for the Buccaneers, that

1158
00:52:37,280 --> 00:52:40,520
Speaker 5: has been a strong point historically, but it is so

1159
00:52:40,680 --> 00:52:43,279
Speaker 5: much not a strong point this year. They're missing on

1160
00:52:43,320 --> 00:52:47,080
Speaker 5: that defensive line, shackbart on the edge, Carl Massive has

1161
00:52:47,120 --> 00:52:49,520
Speaker 5: been injured, Vita Veya, who's you know, one of their

1162
00:52:49,560 --> 00:52:52,040
Speaker 5: main run stoppers they've been He's been injured. And so

1163
00:52:52,080 --> 00:52:54,440
Speaker 5: it's a situation where the Panthers, even though they're not

1164
00:52:54,520 --> 00:52:56,959
Speaker 5: that great on offense, I think they're actually pretty bad

1165
00:52:57,000 --> 00:52:59,880
Speaker 5: on offense, Like they want to run the ball, especially

1166
00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:01,280
Speaker 5: we seem Donald the quarterback.

1167
00:53:01,520 --> 00:53:03,320
Speaker 4: But I think they will be able.

1168
00:53:03,080 --> 00:53:05,759
Speaker 5: To run it against a Buccaneers team that just does

1169
00:53:05,800 --> 00:53:08,400
Speaker 5: not have the run stopping strength that it had in

1170
00:53:08,480 --> 00:53:11,279
Speaker 5: previous years because of how decimated it is on the

1171
00:53:11,320 --> 00:53:12,240
Speaker 5: defensive line.

1172
00:53:13,000 --> 00:53:15,000
Speaker 1: Okay, now we can get to the fun game. Let's

1173
00:53:15,080 --> 00:53:17,520
Speaker 1: leave on a high note, everybody. Another Seinfeld reference for you.

1174
00:53:17,640 --> 00:53:21,520
Speaker 1: Cincinnati Bengals, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen the Buffalo Bills. First

1175
00:53:21,520 --> 00:53:23,040
Speaker 1: time these two are ever going to play against each other.

1176
00:53:23,120 --> 00:53:24,880
Speaker 1: This is gonna be fun. It's on primetime Monday night.

1177
00:53:24,960 --> 00:53:29,000
Speaker 1: Let's go eleven and four Bengals, twelve and three Buffalo Bills.

1178
00:53:29,400 --> 00:53:33,080
Speaker 1: The Bills are one point road favorites. Practically a pick them,

1179
00:53:33,080 --> 00:53:35,520
Speaker 1: you're getting even money on the Cincinnati Bengals. Forty nine

1180
00:53:35,520 --> 00:53:38,160
Speaker 1: and a half is the number here, Fitz. Let's start

1181
00:53:38,200 --> 00:53:39,960
Speaker 1: with you on this one. What's your take on this game?

1182
00:53:40,000 --> 00:53:41,200
Speaker 1: Besides wanting to watch it?

1183
00:53:41,760 --> 00:53:43,920
Speaker 2: I love that we get this on Monday, and you know,

1184
00:53:43,960 --> 00:53:48,160
Speaker 2: with Week seventeen being the championship week in fantasy football

1185
00:53:48,239 --> 00:53:51,560
Speaker 2: and having a game that's got so many fantasy contributors

1186
00:53:51,560 --> 00:53:52,240
Speaker 2: going in and it's.

1187
00:53:52,080 --> 00:53:52,919
Speaker 3: Gonna be a fun one.

1188
00:53:53,000 --> 00:53:55,840
Speaker 2: I don't think the Bengals should be a home dog

1189
00:53:56,000 --> 00:53:59,560
Speaker 2: to anyone. I mean they've won seven straight and granted

1190
00:53:59,600 --> 00:54:02,040
Speaker 2: they have not exactly run people down and left tire

1191
00:54:02,080 --> 00:54:04,160
Speaker 2: tracks on their back the way the forty nine ers have,

1192
00:54:04,880 --> 00:54:07,439
Speaker 2: But I mean this has just been a really good team.

1193
00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:10,120
Speaker 2: They get it done week after week after week, and

1194
00:54:10,680 --> 00:54:14,279
Speaker 2: you know, like not that I'm saying the Bills, uh,

1195
00:54:14,640 --> 00:54:17,640
Speaker 2: don't deserve the sort of credit they're getting, but the

1196
00:54:17,640 --> 00:54:18,879
Speaker 2: Bengals aren't getting enough.

1197
00:54:19,120 --> 00:54:20,759
Speaker 3: So I lean Bengals here.

1198
00:54:21,320 --> 00:54:23,200
Speaker 1: Well, put, they've been on a streak here, What do

1199
00:54:23,239 --> 00:54:25,359
Speaker 1: you think, Friedman? I know they've had some injuries too,

1200
00:54:25,440 --> 00:54:28,680
Speaker 1: but they've been very strong in some of these victories

1201
00:54:28,719 --> 00:54:31,959
Speaker 1: where you know, tough circumstances, they still come out on top.

1202
00:54:32,440 --> 00:54:34,800
Speaker 1: The Bengals are tough, and the Bills, let's be honest,

1203
00:54:34,800 --> 00:54:36,200
Speaker 1: they've let a lot of teams hang in. Is that

1204
00:54:36,280 --> 00:54:37,560
Speaker 1: a dangerous thing to do with Joe.

1205
00:54:37,520 --> 00:54:41,000
Speaker 4: Burrow, Yeah, I'm I'm very much with fits here.

1206
00:54:41,080 --> 00:54:43,880
Speaker 5: I do have the Bills as the slightest of favorites,

1207
00:54:44,160 --> 00:54:47,239
Speaker 5: favored by zero point two five points in this game,

1208
00:54:47,320 --> 00:54:49,640
Speaker 5: but so very much, very much to pick them here.

1209
00:54:49,719 --> 00:54:53,239
Speaker 5: And I did bet in the look ahead market on

1210
00:54:53,520 --> 00:54:56,360
Speaker 5: the Bengals when this number was plus two and a half.

1211
00:54:56,840 --> 00:54:59,200
Speaker 5: It's continued to move towards them. I think it's still

1212
00:54:59,280 --> 00:55:01,920
Speaker 5: at plus one one and a half at some books

1213
00:55:01,920 --> 00:55:05,879
Speaker 5: out there, Caesars, for instance, And so I would still

1214
00:55:05,920 --> 00:55:08,520
Speaker 5: be betting that on the Bengals. One thing I do

1215
00:55:08,600 --> 00:55:12,000
Speaker 5: want to say, though, Joe, you mentioned the the MVP market.

1216
00:55:13,239 --> 00:55:17,360
Speaker 5: Mahomes obviously is awesome. I think he deserves to be

1217
00:55:17,440 --> 00:55:21,600
Speaker 5: the front runner, but I think I don't know Josh Allen.

1218
00:55:22,239 --> 00:55:25,400
Speaker 5: Josh Allen is an intriguing spot here. He's twenty to

1219
00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:28,680
Speaker 5: one at points bet and Josh Allen was.

1220
00:55:28,760 --> 00:55:31,360
Speaker 1: Because he's ten to one at Fandel. What a vast

1221
00:55:31,360 --> 00:55:32,600
Speaker 1: difference that is, because I look at.

1222
00:55:32,480 --> 00:55:33,200
Speaker 4: A fandle right now.

1223
00:55:33,400 --> 00:55:35,719
Speaker 5: Yeah, so twenty to one points bet And I got

1224
00:55:35,719 --> 00:55:37,719
Speaker 5: to say, like, the case for Josh Allen, I think

1225
00:55:37,840 --> 00:55:40,360
Speaker 5: is not that hard to make. The Bills are the

1226
00:55:40,440 --> 00:55:43,160
Speaker 5: number one seed right now in the AFC, which is

1227
00:55:43,200 --> 00:55:46,600
Speaker 5: clearly the superior of the two conferences, and the NFC.

1228
00:55:46,840 --> 00:55:49,360
Speaker 5: Jalen Hurts has been knocked out. So it's not to

1229
00:55:49,360 --> 00:55:51,560
Speaker 5: say like he can't win it, but you know, his

1230
00:55:51,600 --> 00:55:56,160
Speaker 5: odds of winning it have drastically dropped. And he was

1231
00:55:56,200 --> 00:56:01,000
Speaker 5: the front runner opening the year. He beat Patrick Mahomes

1232
00:56:01,080 --> 00:56:04,840
Speaker 5: head to head and has a strong performance in that game.

1233
00:56:06,400 --> 00:56:10,360
Speaker 5: And if he beats if the Bills beat the Bengals

1234
00:56:11,239 --> 00:56:14,120
Speaker 5: this upcoming week on Monday Night Football and he has

1235
00:56:14,160 --> 00:56:15,640
Speaker 5: a good performance.

1236
00:56:15,200 --> 00:56:17,080
Speaker 4: And Jalen Hurts doesn't play.

1237
00:56:17,000 --> 00:56:19,799
Speaker 5: Yeah, and Jalen Hurts doesn't play like he will have

1238
00:56:19,920 --> 00:56:22,920
Speaker 5: beat the two other teams that are really there in

1239
00:56:23,000 --> 00:56:27,440
Speaker 5: the running, and you know, like what would have changed.

1240
00:56:27,120 --> 00:56:29,439
Speaker 4: Really, Like, Okay, that's a great point.

1241
00:56:29,560 --> 00:56:32,160
Speaker 5: Mahomes is not a good season, but like Allen has

1242
00:56:32,200 --> 00:56:35,600
Speaker 5: had a kind of Allen esque season. Yeah, he's thrown interceptions,

1243
00:56:35,800 --> 00:56:38,600
Speaker 5: but he was good enough to get his team to

1244
00:56:38,680 --> 00:56:42,160
Speaker 5: the number one seed. And I know, like fantasy points

1245
00:56:42,200 --> 00:56:44,840
Speaker 5: don't matter when people are thinking about MVP, but like

1246
00:56:45,160 --> 00:56:47,520
Speaker 5: he's still done a lot on the ground. He's still

1247
00:56:47,560 --> 00:56:51,160
Speaker 5: had like a pretty all encompassing Josh Allen type of season.

1248
00:56:52,360 --> 00:56:54,239
Speaker 5: I think that there would be a chance of him.

1249
00:56:54,600 --> 00:56:57,560
Speaker 5: I don't think he would actually win the I don't

1250
00:56:57,560 --> 00:56:59,960
Speaker 5: think he would win the MVP, but I'm pretty sure

1251
00:57:00,160 --> 00:57:02,280
Speaker 5: odds would be much better than twenty to one.

1252
00:57:02,680 --> 00:57:04,520
Speaker 1: Well six to one right now is where Joe Burrow

1253
00:57:04,600 --> 00:57:06,680
Speaker 1: is too. So if Joe Burrow should win this game,

1254
00:57:07,000 --> 00:57:08,680
Speaker 1: then all of a sudden, I think the calculus might

1255
00:57:08,760 --> 00:57:11,520
Speaker 1: change again. Just saying like, right now, Mahomes is the

1256
00:57:11,520 --> 00:57:13,960
Speaker 1: favorite again, but just two weeks ago it was Jalen

1257
00:57:14,000 --> 00:57:16,760
Speaker 1: Hurts was the prohibitive favorite. This market is still moving

1258
00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:20,840
Speaker 1: very much in that market for MVP. All right, that'll

1259
00:57:20,840 --> 00:57:23,080
Speaker 1: do it for us. Make sure you go ahead and

1260
00:57:23,480 --> 00:57:26,240
Speaker 1: subscribe to Betting Pros YouTube channel like that little bell

1261
00:57:26,280 --> 00:57:27,680
Speaker 1: to the ghost things you got every time a piece

1262
00:57:27,720 --> 00:57:31,120
Speaker 1: of content drops here on VP, And of course make

1263
00:57:31,160 --> 00:57:33,280
Speaker 1: sure that you check out all the great content over

1264
00:57:33,280 --> 00:57:35,680
Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com, including the prop bet cheat sheet.

1265
00:57:35,680 --> 00:57:37,280
Speaker 1: That'll do it for us, and the story of the

1266
00:57:37,280 --> 00:57:39,720
Speaker 1: game goes on for Matthew Friedman and Pat fitz Morris.

1267
00:57:39,760 --> 00:57:42,200
Speaker 4: I'm Joey B. We'll see you next time. Gives