WEBVTT - US & Iran Two-Week Ceasefire; Oil and Gas Prices Plunge

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here

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<v Speaker 2>are the stories we're following today, Karen.

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<v Speaker 3>Relief is sweeping through markets and the world. With the

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<v Speaker 3>US and Iran pulling away from the brink forty days

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<v Speaker 3>into the Middle East war, President Trump announced a two

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<v Speaker 3>week ceasefire last night, subject to Tehran reopening the strait

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<v Speaker 3>of horror moves. The move came hours after the President warned, quote,

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<v Speaker 3>a whole civilization will die tonight if Iran did not

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<v Speaker 3>give in to his demands. Pakistan mediated to urge the

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<v Speaker 3>President to back away from that threat. Daniel Biman is

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<v Speaker 3>director of the Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program at

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<v Speaker 3>the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

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<v Speaker 4>President Trump was clearly moving towards a decision moment, and

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<v Speaker 4>today it was either going to be significant escalation or

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<v Speaker 4>some sort of deal. And he can now claim that

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<v Speaker 4>it was his threats that led the Iranians to the

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<v Speaker 4>negotiating table. It's quite possible he could have got this

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<v Speaker 4>deal several weeks ago, so I'm not quite sure that's right.

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<v Speaker 3>Daniel Biman with the Center for Strategic and International studies.

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<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg's Jumana Barsecci reports it remains to be seen whether

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<v Speaker 3>this two week pause leads to a lasting end to hostilities.

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<v Speaker 5>Overnight, the National Supreme Security Council of Iran published ten points,

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<v Speaker 5>a very long missive that they published and included in

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<v Speaker 5>those points other than the full lifting of sanctions, the

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<v Speaker 5>end of hostilities, the withdrawal of US from bases in

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<v Speaker 5>the region, and control of the Straits. Obviously, many of

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<v Speaker 5>those are non starters for the US. They've also stipulated

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<v Speaker 5>that the war against all of their components of the

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<v Speaker 5>so called Axis of Resistance should be halted immediately.

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<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg's Jumana Barsecci reports President Trump is calling Iran's ten

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<v Speaker 3>point plan a workable basis for negotiations, and he says

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<v Speaker 3>the US will assist in allowing safe passage through the

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<v Speaker 3>Strait of Hormuz. House also says Israel has agreed to

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<v Speaker 3>the ceasefire, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyah, who says it

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<v Speaker 3>does not extend to Lebanon, where Israel is waging a

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<v Speaker 3>parallel war with hesbela.

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<v Speaker 2>Well Nathan reaction pouring in around the world to the

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<v Speaker 2>temporary Shiesh fire. Dahlia Fahmi is director of International Relations

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<v Speaker 2>and Diplomacy at Long Island University.

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<v Speaker 6>What we're seeing in this plan put forward is that

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<v Speaker 6>Iran is actually perhaps putting a proposal for the future.

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<v Speaker 6>For its future, it kind of guaranteed taking advantage of

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<v Speaker 6>this moment.

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<v Speaker 4>If you look at this on the US side, the goalpost.

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<v Speaker 6>Of so called success has shifted significantly. Initially it was

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<v Speaker 6>complete regime change, then complete destruction of the ballistic military capacity,

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<v Speaker 6>and then it moved to nuclear Enrichmond, and now it's

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<v Speaker 6>simply opening the Strait of Harmuz, which is what we

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<v Speaker 6>heard from President Trump today. The strait was opened before

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<v Speaker 6>the war, and so what the signals is that in

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<v Speaker 6>terms of coming to the brink which we are at

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<v Speaker 6>just a few hours ago. It seems that Iran perhaps

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<v Speaker 6>isn't a position with a greater bargaining range than the

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<v Speaker 6>United States is.

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<v Speaker 2>And as Long Island Universities Dalia Facmo notes that both

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<v Speaker 2>the US and Iran are portraying the ceasefire as a victory,

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<v Speaker 2>but significant differences remain between their demands to bring the

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<v Speaker 2>war to a complete end.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, Karen, we are seeing huge movements in energy markets

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<v Speaker 3>this morning, checking oil once again. West Texas Intermediate CREWED

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<v Speaker 3>is down more than fifteen and a half percent, trading

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<v Speaker 3>above ninety five dollars a barrel. Brent is down more

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<v Speaker 3>than thirteen percent, just shy of ninety five dollars. Refined

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<v Speaker 3>product prices are falling as well, with benchmark European diesel

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<v Speaker 3>futures dropping as much as twenty three percent. Will Kennedy

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<v Speaker 3>covers the energy markets for Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 7>The big question, of course, is the terms under which

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<v Speaker 7>they might be able to make those voyages. Iran has

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<v Speaker 7>asserted its light to charge for passage and to control

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<v Speaker 7>passage through the strait during the conflict, and has proposed

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<v Speaker 7>a more permanent aragement where it would levy fees on

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<v Speaker 7>ships for passage. That will be controversial, to say the

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<v Speaker 7>least with the US and other countries around the world,

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<v Speaker 7>and it will be very interesting to see how far

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<v Speaker 7>Bylan insists on that. But in the near future, traders

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<v Speaker 7>will just want to see the ships move and for

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<v Speaker 7>traffic to resume at some kind of pace, if not

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<v Speaker 7>the pace before the conflict work out.

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<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg's Bill Kennedy says, even with today's job, WTI crew

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<v Speaker 3>is still up more than forty percent since the conflict

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<v Speaker 3>began on the last day of February.

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<v Speaker 2>Only then, several airline executives say it will take several

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<v Speaker 2>months to normalize even if the Strait of horm Moves

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<v Speaker 2>is opened. And as a root in Bakar is the

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<v Speaker 2>CEO of the Malaysia Aviation Group.

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<v Speaker 8>The impact the Middle East area not only just the

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<v Speaker 8>supply of the fuel and the crude oil is at

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<v Speaker 8>the refineryselves. Even if if the war stops, I personally

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<v Speaker 8>believe it is going to take many, many mire months

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<v Speaker 8>for the price to stabilize.

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<v Speaker 2>And Malaysia Aviation in groups and as a root in

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<v Speaker 2>Bakar made the comments at the International air Transport World

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<v Speaker 2>to Data Symposium in Singapore.

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<v Speaker 3>Turning two equity markets this morning, they are jumping, led

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<v Speaker 3>by Nasdaq futures up three and a half percent or

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<v Speaker 3>eight hundred and forty five points. SMP futures are up

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<v Speaker 3>two and two thirds percent or one hundred and seventy

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<v Speaker 3>seven points. In Down futures hire by eleven hundred and

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<v Speaker 3>twenty eight points, that is a gain of almost two

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<v Speaker 3>and a half percent. In Europe, the Stocks fifty is

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<v Speaker 3>hired by three and a half percent, and in Asia,

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<v Speaker 3>Japan's knee ke stock average closed higher by more than

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<v Speaker 3>four or five percent.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, Nathan, the rapid shifts in the war have seen

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<v Speaker 2>stock trading intensifying. We get the details at Bloomberg's John Tucker.

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<v Speaker 9>Investors wary of being wrong footed by twists and turns

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<v Speaker 9>of the conflict are trading stocks at a record intensity.

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<v Speaker 9>One technical metric, the daily turnover in the State Street

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<v Speaker 9>spider S and P five hundred ETF trust has breached

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<v Speaker 9>sixty billion dollars. That is a reading seen as a

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<v Speaker 9>quote freakout indicator by Bloomberg Intelligence strategists twenty nine times

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<v Speaker 9>this year. That record compares to twenty eight times in

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<v Speaker 9>all of twenty twenty five. Buying on weakness has been

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<v Speaker 9>rewarded in recent years, with markets eventually bouncing to erase

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<v Speaker 9>declines spurred by everything from the COVID pandemic to the

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<v Speaker 9>worst inflation scare in decades. Seasonality may also prove a

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<v Speaker 9>tail when the S and P five hundred has notched

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<v Speaker 9>an average April gain of one and a half percent

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<v Speaker 9>since nineteen ninety. In New York Time, John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 3>All right, John, thank you Following a couple of important

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<v Speaker 3>stories in politics, this morning, Vice President JD. Vance is

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<v Speaker 3>criticizing the European Union for what he sees as meddling

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<v Speaker 3>in Hungary's election. Vans spoke alongside Prime Minister Victor Orbin

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<v Speaker 3>on a visit to Budapest ahead of Sunday's vote.

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<v Speaker 10>What has happened in the midst of this election campaign

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<v Speaker 10>is one of the worst examples of foreign and election

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<v Speaker 10>interference that I've ever seen, or ever even read about.

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<v Speaker 10>The bureaucrats and Brussels have tried to destroy the economy

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<v Speaker 10>of Hungary. They have tried to make Hungary less energy independent.

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<v Speaker 4>They have tried to drive up costs.

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<v Speaker 10>For Hungarian consumers. And they've done it all because they

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<v Speaker 10>hate this guy.

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<v Speaker 3>Vice President and Vance gave no evidence for his claims,

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<v Speaker 3>and no EU leader has campaigned alongside the opposition in Hungary.

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<v Speaker 3>Independent polls show Orban's party is on track to lose

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<v Speaker 3>power after sixteen years.

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<v Speaker 2>And let's turn to US politics now, Nathan. The race

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<v Speaker 2>to fill Marjorie Taylor Green's open house seat in Georgia

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<v Speaker 2>is complete and with nearly all the votes counted in

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<v Speaker 2>the special runoff election, Republican Clay Fuller is projected to

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<v Speaker 2>be to Democrat Sean Harris by a nearly twelve point

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<v Speaker 2>margin fifty five point nine to forty four point one percent.

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<v Speaker 2>Fuller told his supporters his victory could offer a blueprint

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<v Speaker 2>for the midterms.

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<v Speaker 11>When Republicans are united, when we share a common purpose,

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<v Speaker 11>and when we understand what's at stake, we win.

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<v Speaker 2>But Harris says he plans to run again in the

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<v Speaker 2>general election.

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<v Speaker 4>If we get out.

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<v Speaker 12>In full, if we get out and.

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<v Speaker 10>Speak our boys, we will win this election every time

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<v Speaker 10>this election come.

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<v Speaker 2>And Clay Fuller's victory last night expands the Republican's narrow

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<v Speaker 2>House majority to two hundred eighteen to two hundred and

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<v Speaker 2>fourteen plus one Independent. Time now for a look at

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<v Speaker 2>some of the other stories making news in New York

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<v Speaker 2>and around the world and forever. Were joined by Bloomberg's

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<v Speaker 2>Michael Barr Michael good Morning, Good Morning.

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<v Speaker 12>Karen, a Long Island architect accused in a string of

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<v Speaker 12>long unsolved slangs known as the Gilgo Beach killings, is

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<v Speaker 12>expected to plead guilty. Rex Huerman is charged with murdering

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<v Speaker 12>seven women. A guilty plea would put him in prison

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<v Speaker 12>for the rest of his life. Huerman is also expected

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<v Speaker 12>to plead guilty today and the death of an eighth woman,

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<v Speaker 12>Karen Vergana, was a thirty four year old from Manhattan

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<v Speaker 12>who disappeared in nineteen ninety six. Last year, a judge

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<v Speaker 12>rejected his bid to exclude DNA evidence obtained through advanced

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<v Speaker 12>techniques that prosecutors say proves he's the killer. He previously

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<v Speaker 12>pleaded not guilty. Meanwhile, Huerman is being sued, along with

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<v Speaker 12>his former wife and their daughter, by the son of

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<v Speaker 12>one of the alleged victims, Benjamin Taurus. The son of

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<v Speaker 12>Valerie Mack, claims his mother was tortured ferociously and her

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<v Speaker 12>body dismembered. Robert Macedonio is the attorney for Huerman's ex

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<v Speaker 12>Asa ellerup and daughter, Victoria Huerman.

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<v Speaker 8>The individual responsible act of the law Rex Schumann has

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<v Speaker 8>been indicted and charged with a series of homicides, and

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<v Speaker 8>he will have his name in court to.

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<v Speaker 6>Answer with his charges.

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<v Speaker 12>Macedonio called the lawsuit reckless, saying Victoria Huerman was just

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<v Speaker 12>three years old at the time of the murders. NASA

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<v Speaker 12>officials say the Artemis two crew is back within the

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<v Speaker 12>influence of Earth's gravity and still on schedule to splash

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<v Speaker 12>down on Friday, Artemis two. Lunar science lead doctor Kelsey

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<v Speaker 12>Young said during the lunar flyby, the crew observed new

0:10:00.360 --> 0:10:02.280
<v Speaker 12>on the Moon surface right away.

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<v Speaker 13>They started describing the green around Aristarkus Plateau and different

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<v Speaker 13>brown hughes, and these colors really help tell us nuances

0:10:11.360 --> 0:10:13.240
<v Speaker 13>about the chemistry of lunar material.

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<v Speaker 12>About half of New Yorker's approve of Mayor Zorimumdanni's job

0:10:17.720 --> 0:10:20.880
<v Speaker 12>performance as he approaches his one hundredth day in office.

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<v Speaker 12>That's according to a New Mayor's pole. Global news twenty

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<v Speaker 12>four hours a day and whenever you want it with

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<v Speaker 12>Bloomberg News Now Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg Karen.

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<v Speaker 9>Thanks Michael.

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<v Speaker 2>Time now for our Bloomberg Sports update, and for that

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<v Speaker 2>we bring in John stash Hour.

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<v Speaker 9>Nice there are.

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<v Speaker 11>The Dodgers are the two times depending World Series champions,

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<v Speaker 11>favorites to win a three pete and in Toronto, where

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<v Speaker 11>they won Game seven last fall, they beat the Blue

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<v Speaker 11>Jays four to one. Of the Dodgers are off to

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<v Speaker 11>a nine and two start. The Yankees are eight and two,

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<v Speaker 11>four runs in the eighth didning of Medversorio his second

0:10:51.080 --> 0:10:53.320
<v Speaker 11>home run of the night, and the Yanks beat the

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<v Speaker 11>A's five to three. The Lakers are playing without their

0:10:56.360 --> 0:10:58.559
<v Speaker 11>three best players, Luca don Stch maybe for the rest

0:10:58.600 --> 0:11:01.520
<v Speaker 11>of the season, also Austin Ree and Lebron James. Lakers

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<v Speaker 11>lost at home to Oklahoma City by thirty six as

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<v Speaker 11>the Bloomberg Sports Update.

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<v Speaker 2>Stay with us. More from Bloomberg day Break coming up

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<v Speaker 2>after this.

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<v Speaker 1>Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Serious XM,

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<v Speaker 1>and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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<v Speaker 3>Good Morning on Nathan Hager. A two week pause. President

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<v Speaker 3>Trump says he is putting his war with Iran on hold,

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<v Speaker 3>hours after threatening to wipe out its whole civilization if

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<v Speaker 3>it would not reopen the Strait of horm movez Saamvakils,

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<v Speaker 3>director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at

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<v Speaker 3>Chatham House.

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<v Speaker 14>This is a welcome pause. This is a war that

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<v Speaker 14>nobody was winning. All sides have come out much weaker.

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<v Speaker 14>But I still remain cautious because Iran's demands are really

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<v Speaker 14>quite extreme, and it's hard to see them coming out

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<v Speaker 14>having achieved everything.

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<v Speaker 3>Saddam Vakil with Chatham House for more. We are joined

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<v Speaker 3>from Dubai by Bloomberg Middle East correspondent and anchor of

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<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg Horizons, Jumana Bursecchi, along with Bloomberg News Deputy Washington

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<v Speaker 3>Bureau Chief Laura Davison. It's good to have both of

0:12:14.320 --> 0:12:17.000
<v Speaker 3>you with us this morning. Jumana. I'll start with you.

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<v Speaker 3>Where does this two week pause leave things in Irran?

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<v Speaker 3>What are the chances that this leads to a more

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<v Speaker 3>permanent solution?

0:12:25.200 --> 0:12:29.079
<v Speaker 5>Good morning, Yeah, that's the question on everyone's mind this morning.

0:12:29.080 --> 0:12:32.360
<v Speaker 5>It certainly feels tenuous. I will say before that that

0:12:32.559 --> 0:12:35.160
<v Speaker 5>the entire region is breathing a sigh of relief that

0:12:35.200 --> 0:12:38.560
<v Speaker 5>the very worst case scenario didn't materialize and President Chump

0:12:38.600 --> 0:12:40.680
<v Speaker 5>didn't follow through on some of those threats. Of course,

0:12:40.720 --> 0:12:44.959
<v Speaker 5>the language got increasingly strident as the war went on,

0:12:45.559 --> 0:12:48.280
<v Speaker 5>So there is a sense of relief this morning, but

0:12:48.440 --> 0:12:53.360
<v Speaker 5>again a lot of questions about whether this semi this

0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:56.840
<v Speaker 5>temporary truth can actually turn into something more permanent. And

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<v Speaker 5>namely because if we go back to the starting points

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<v Speaker 5>all discuss did the upcoming negotiations between both the US

0:13:04.840 --> 0:13:07.960
<v Speaker 5>and Iran, they're still very very far apart, and in

0:13:08.000 --> 0:13:11.960
<v Speaker 5>the middle of the night yesterday Iran actually presented their

0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:16.439
<v Speaker 5>ten point proposal, and some of those demands are extremely maximalist,

0:13:16.640 --> 0:13:20.800
<v Speaker 5>including them maintaining that they have a right of sovereignty

0:13:20.840 --> 0:13:24.360
<v Speaker 5>over passage of ships through the Strait of Hormos. They

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<v Speaker 5>are asking for assurances that the war won't happen again.

0:13:27.000 --> 0:13:30.840
<v Speaker 5>They're asking for war reparations, and the right to actually

0:13:30.840 --> 0:13:33.480
<v Speaker 5>continue within Richmond as well. Many of those are non

0:13:33.520 --> 0:13:36.760
<v Speaker 5>starters for the US, but obviously he's formed the foundation

0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:40.240
<v Speaker 5>of the upcoming likely discussions that are going to take place,

0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:42.880
<v Speaker 5>most likely in Islamabads at the end of the week.

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<v Speaker 3>To that point, Laura, we heard President Trump called that

0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:50.400
<v Speaker 3>ten point plan from Iran a workable basis for negotiations.

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<v Speaker 3>What happened to the fifteen point plan from the US?

0:13:55.480 --> 0:13:59.920
<v Speaker 15>Plans, you know, have been consistently changing over the past

0:14:00.240 --> 0:14:03.160
<v Speaker 15>several weeks, and this has been sort of a you know,

0:14:03.679 --> 0:14:07.320
<v Speaker 15>a point of contention going into the ceasefire is what

0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:11.280
<v Speaker 15>exactly are the basis for these negotiations. The White House

0:14:11.280 --> 0:14:14.520
<v Speaker 15>has said this ten point plan that Jumana mentioned, However,

0:14:14.559 --> 0:14:17.040
<v Speaker 15>the White House has declined to confirm what those ten

0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:19.640
<v Speaker 15>points are. You know, Trump has said that some of

0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:22.760
<v Speaker 15>the reporting out there is inaccurate, but hasn't suggested exactly

0:14:22.840 --> 0:14:25.320
<v Speaker 15>what the basis of negotiations are happening here. So we

0:14:25.360 --> 0:14:28.080
<v Speaker 15>have a scenario where you have you know, Trump sort

0:14:28.120 --> 0:14:30.920
<v Speaker 15>of suggesting that, you know, lots of these points are

0:14:30.920 --> 0:14:33.360
<v Speaker 15>agreed to, but in that ten point document, you know,

0:14:33.400 --> 0:14:35.200
<v Speaker 15>those would are many things that would be non starters

0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:37.840
<v Speaker 15>for the US. So we have a you know, perhaps

0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:39.800
<v Speaker 15>going into this two weeks seas fire with a little

0:14:39.800 --> 0:14:43.080
<v Speaker 15>bit of a misunderstanding or perhaps overly rosy glasses from

0:14:43.120 --> 0:14:45.920
<v Speaker 15>the US and potentially also from Iran as to exactly

0:14:45.960 --> 0:14:47.960
<v Speaker 15>where each of the two sides stand at this moment.

0:14:48.200 --> 0:14:50.840
<v Speaker 3>And of course there's been so much focus now in

0:14:50.880 --> 0:14:53.720
<v Speaker 3>the last few days on reopening the strait of horror

0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:55.960
<v Speaker 3>moves as opposed to some of the other objectives that

0:14:56.000 --> 0:14:58.480
<v Speaker 3>President Trump has laid out here. Jumana, what is the

0:14:58.520 --> 0:15:02.200
<v Speaker 3>difficulty for getting traffic to move through that straight.

0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:05.200
<v Speaker 5>Well, the difficulty is that the Iranian Foreign Minister, even

0:15:05.320 --> 0:15:08.360
<v Speaker 5>when saying that they had accepted the seas fire, also

0:15:08.440 --> 0:15:11.280
<v Speaker 5>maintained that vessels would still have to get permission from

0:15:11.280 --> 0:15:14.640
<v Speaker 5>Iran armed forces over the next couple of weeks. So

0:15:15.280 --> 0:15:20.480
<v Speaker 5>they're still once again reiterating that they effectively have control

0:15:20.640 --> 0:15:24.280
<v Speaker 5>over who and what gets to pass through the straits safely.

0:15:24.840 --> 0:15:28.480
<v Speaker 5>And already we started to hear from various ministries of

0:15:28.480 --> 0:15:30.600
<v Speaker 5>foreign affairs in the region, the likes of Katar Saudi

0:15:30.600 --> 0:15:32.680
<v Speaker 5>Arabia putting up posts just in the last half an

0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:36.000
<v Speaker 5>hour saying that they while they welcomed the seasfire, they

0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:40.960
<v Speaker 5>also would like to see a return to the former

0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:45.960
<v Speaker 5>status quo where shipping was free, available for oil, and

0:15:46.080 --> 0:15:49.520
<v Speaker 5>balanced by international maritime law, as opposed to this new

0:15:49.520 --> 0:15:51.920
<v Speaker 5>protocol that Iran is trying to set up. So as

0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:55.200
<v Speaker 5>things stand out, you've got about eight hundred vessels stranded

0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:58.160
<v Speaker 5>in the Persian Gulf waiting to get a signal that

0:15:58.160 --> 0:16:01.600
<v Speaker 5>they can leave. Of course, there's a huge backlog, and

0:16:01.640 --> 0:16:04.400
<v Speaker 5>it's unclear at this point whether any of them or

0:16:04.440 --> 0:16:06.800
<v Speaker 5>many of them are going to go ahead. And we

0:16:06.880 --> 0:16:08.920
<v Speaker 5>know that prior to the war, about one hundred to

0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:10.720
<v Speaker 5>one hundred and twenty vessels would pass through the straight

0:16:10.760 --> 0:16:13.360
<v Speaker 5>a day. Now it's trickled down to around maybe half

0:16:13.400 --> 0:16:16.480
<v Speaker 5>a dozen at most, and most of those vessels would

0:16:16.480 --> 0:16:18.560
<v Speaker 5>have been Iranian length so we'll see what happens in

0:16:18.600 --> 0:16:19.560
<v Speaker 5>the next couple of days.

0:16:19.840 --> 0:16:23.600
<v Speaker 3>And this idea of Iran taking tolls to allow passage

0:16:23.640 --> 0:16:26.400
<v Speaker 3>through the strait, arguably it puts them in a much

0:16:26.480 --> 0:16:29.680
<v Speaker 3>more much different position than was as you mentioned, just

0:16:30.040 --> 0:16:34.800
<v Speaker 3>a few weeks ago when passage was free. Where does

0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:39.840
<v Speaker 3>this Laura leave the US in this two week window

0:16:39.960 --> 0:16:42.640
<v Speaker 3>now to try to come up with some kind of

0:16:42.680 --> 0:16:46.480
<v Speaker 3>resolution when it comes to how things move through the strait.

0:16:47.200 --> 0:16:49.760
<v Speaker 15>This is going to be the big question going into

0:16:49.800 --> 0:16:52.280
<v Speaker 15>these talks, and suggests that perhaps two weeks is not

0:16:52.400 --> 0:16:55.560
<v Speaker 15>enough time to get that negotiated, which could mean that

0:16:55.560 --> 0:16:58.080
<v Speaker 15>we're looking at a much longer, sort of short term

0:16:58.360 --> 0:17:01.880
<v Speaker 15>ceasefire while these finer are negotiated. But you know, if Iran,

0:17:02.560 --> 0:17:05.320
<v Speaker 15>you know, is coming into these the ceasefire with with

0:17:05.400 --> 0:17:08.040
<v Speaker 15>effective control over the straight of horror moves, they've suggested

0:17:08.040 --> 0:17:10.080
<v Speaker 15>they will allow ships to pass. But exactly what that

0:17:10.119 --> 0:17:12.439
<v Speaker 15>looks like and how much control they over that have

0:17:12.560 --> 0:17:15.000
<v Speaker 15>over that remains to be seen. But if they are,

0:17:15.240 --> 0:17:17.080
<v Speaker 15>you know, able to have some sort of veto power

0:17:17.200 --> 0:17:20.479
<v Speaker 15>or the ability to collect tolls that gives them a

0:17:20.680 --> 0:17:23.560
<v Speaker 15>leverage over the global economy that they didn't have before

0:17:23.560 --> 0:17:25.320
<v Speaker 15>the start of this war. The Trump has said he

0:17:25.320 --> 0:17:28.879
<v Speaker 15>wants free travel, he wants to have the essentially the

0:17:29.119 --> 0:17:30.760
<v Speaker 15>straight of horm moves return to what it was like

0:17:31.000 --> 0:17:34.000
<v Speaker 15>before the war. But that's going to be that's the

0:17:34.080 --> 0:17:36.960
<v Speaker 15>trump card that Iran has, and that's going to be

0:17:37.200 --> 0:17:38.320
<v Speaker 15>one of the things that they're going to want to

0:17:38.320 --> 0:17:40.440
<v Speaker 15>hold on to the longest. Of course, that's the thing

0:17:40.440 --> 0:17:42.879
<v Speaker 15>that Trump also wants to see relieve the most. So

0:17:42.920 --> 0:17:45.560
<v Speaker 15>this creates a lot of tension going into these talks,

0:17:46.040 --> 0:17:48.080
<v Speaker 15>you know, And of course the key point being here

0:17:48.080 --> 0:17:50.320
<v Speaker 15>that this has a lot of effect over what oil

0:17:50.640 --> 0:17:52.719
<v Speaker 15>prices are doing, over what gas prices are doing, and

0:17:52.720 --> 0:17:56.240
<v Speaker 15>that is one of Trump's key concerns politically, domestically as

0:17:56.240 --> 0:17:57.760
<v Speaker 15>well as economically.

0:17:57.480 --> 0:18:01.040
<v Speaker 3>And Juman of course, all this comes to hours after

0:18:01.280 --> 0:18:04.760
<v Speaker 3>President Trump threatened to lay waste to the country, essentially

0:18:04.800 --> 0:18:08.359
<v Speaker 3>saying a whole civilization would be wiped out tonight. What

0:18:08.560 --> 0:18:12.840
<v Speaker 3>to make of the extreme back and forth here from

0:18:12.880 --> 0:18:13.679
<v Speaker 3>President Trump.

0:18:14.960 --> 0:18:17.720
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, well, the language didn't go down well with anyone,

0:18:18.040 --> 0:18:21.120
<v Speaker 5>i'd say, from the region, even his allies in the region. Obviously,

0:18:21.160 --> 0:18:23.560
<v Speaker 5>it was deemed to be one step too far, and

0:18:23.600 --> 0:18:28.200
<v Speaker 5>some people are actually saying that is what incentivized them

0:18:28.800 --> 0:18:31.439
<v Speaker 5>or President Trump to back down, because he got so

0:18:31.600 --> 0:18:35.760
<v Speaker 5>much pushback after that post. It seems as though Pakistan

0:18:36.000 --> 0:18:39.640
<v Speaker 5>really made a last ditched effort to try to bring

0:18:39.680 --> 0:18:43.760
<v Speaker 5>all sites together jd Vance, according to you know, overnight

0:18:43.760 --> 0:18:46.240
<v Speaker 5>reportings seemed to have played a pivotal role as well.

0:18:46.640 --> 0:18:50.440
<v Speaker 5>And then also President Trump crediting China too with bringing

0:18:50.480 --> 0:18:53.199
<v Speaker 5>Iran to the negotiating table. So I guess it's one

0:18:53.240 --> 0:18:55.960
<v Speaker 5>of those questions of you know, maybe he had to

0:18:56.040 --> 0:18:59.320
<v Speaker 5>go that far down the escalation chain in order for

0:18:59.359 --> 0:19:01.760
<v Speaker 5>things to de escalate. But at the same time, I

0:19:01.800 --> 0:19:04.120
<v Speaker 5>think many people in the region would have deemed those

0:19:04.119 --> 0:19:09.840
<v Speaker 5>comments to be quite insulting and diminutive and reductive and

0:19:10.280 --> 0:19:15.159
<v Speaker 5>really unpresidential. So you know, the limit of what was

0:19:15.200 --> 0:19:19.240
<v Speaker 5>acceptable got increasingly tested over time, and as the war

0:19:19.320 --> 0:19:22.520
<v Speaker 5>went on, it was apparent that President Trump was becoming frustrated.

0:19:23.480 --> 0:19:26.800
<v Speaker 5>Now this just you know, as we said, everyone's breathing

0:19:26.800 --> 0:19:29.480
<v Speaker 5>a sigh of relief. It's a chance for a reset

0:19:30.320 --> 0:19:33.960
<v Speaker 5>and let's see whether cooler heads prevail in becoming weeks.

0:19:35.480 --> 0:19:38.919
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