Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here
Speaker 2: are the stories we're following today, Karen.
Speaker 3: Relief is sweeping through markets and the world. With the
Speaker 3: US and Iran pulling away from the brink forty days
Speaker 3: into the Middle East war, President Trump announced a two
Speaker 3: week ceasefire last night, subject to Tehran reopening the strait
Speaker 3: of horror moves. The move came hours after the President warned, quote,
Speaker 3: a whole civilization will die tonight if Iran did not
Speaker 3: give in to his demands. Pakistan mediated to urge the
Speaker 3: President to back away from that threat. Daniel Biman is
Speaker 3: director of the Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program at
Speaker 3: the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Speaker 4: President Trump was clearly moving towards a decision moment, and
Speaker 4: today it was either going to be significant escalation or
Speaker 4: some sort of deal. And he can now claim that
Speaker 4: it was his threats that led the Iranians to the
Speaker 4: negotiating table. It's quite possible he could have got this
Speaker 4: deal several weeks ago, so I'm not quite sure that's right.
Speaker 3: Daniel Biman with the Center for Strategic and International studies.
Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Jumana Barsecci reports it remains to be seen whether
Speaker 3: this two week pause leads to a lasting end to hostilities.
Speaker 5: Overnight, the National Supreme Security Council of Iran published ten points,
Speaker 5: a very long missive that they published and included in
Speaker 5: those points other than the full lifting of sanctions, the
Speaker 5: end of hostilities, the withdrawal of US from bases in
Speaker 5: the region, and control of the Straits. Obviously, many of
Speaker 5: those are non starters for the US. They've also stipulated
Speaker 5: that the war against all of their components of the
Speaker 5: so called Axis of Resistance should be halted immediately.
Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Jumana Barsecci reports President Trump is calling Iran's ten
Speaker 3: point plan a workable basis for negotiations, and he says
Speaker 3: the US will assist in allowing safe passage through the
Speaker 3: Strait of Hormuz. House also says Israel has agreed to
Speaker 3: the ceasefire, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyah, who says it
Speaker 3: does not extend to Lebanon, where Israel is waging a
Speaker 3: parallel war with hesbela.
Speaker 2: Well Nathan reaction pouring in around the world to the
Speaker 2: temporary Shiesh fire. Dahlia Fahmi is director of International Relations
Speaker 2: and Diplomacy at Long Island University.
Speaker 6: What we're seeing in this plan put forward is that
Speaker 6: Iran is actually perhaps putting a proposal for the future.
Speaker 6: For its future, it kind of guaranteed taking advantage of
Speaker 6: this moment.
Speaker 4: If you look at this on the US side, the goalpost.
Speaker 6: Of so called success has shifted significantly. Initially it was
Speaker 6: complete regime change, then complete destruction of the ballistic military capacity,
Speaker 6: and then it moved to nuclear Enrichmond, and now it's
Speaker 6: simply opening the Strait of Harmuz, which is what we
Speaker 6: heard from President Trump today. The strait was opened before
Speaker 6: the war, and so what the signals is that in
Speaker 6: terms of coming to the brink which we are at
Speaker 6: just a few hours ago. It seems that Iran perhaps
Speaker 6: isn't a position with a greater bargaining range than the
Speaker 6: United States is.
Speaker 2: And as Long Island Universities Dalia Facmo notes that both
Speaker 2: the US and Iran are portraying the ceasefire as a victory,
Speaker 2: but significant differences remain between their demands to bring the
Speaker 2: war to a complete end.
Speaker 3: Well, Karen, we are seeing huge movements in energy markets
Speaker 3: this morning, checking oil once again. West Texas Intermediate CREWED
Speaker 3: is down more than fifteen and a half percent, trading
Speaker 3: above ninety five dollars a barrel. Brent is down more
Speaker 3: than thirteen percent, just shy of ninety five dollars. Refined
Speaker 3: product prices are falling as well, with benchmark European diesel
Speaker 3: futures dropping as much as twenty three percent. Will Kennedy
Speaker 3: covers the energy markets for Bloomberg.
Speaker 7: The big question, of course, is the terms under which
Speaker 7: they might be able to make those voyages. Iran has
Speaker 7: asserted its light to charge for passage and to control
Speaker 7: passage through the strait during the conflict, and has proposed
Speaker 7: a more permanent aragement where it would levy fees on
Speaker 7: ships for passage. That will be controversial, to say the
Speaker 7: least with the US and other countries around the world,
Speaker 7: and it will be very interesting to see how far
Speaker 7: Bylan insists on that. But in the near future, traders
Speaker 7: will just want to see the ships move and for
Speaker 7: traffic to resume at some kind of pace, if not
Speaker 7: the pace before the conflict work out.
Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Bill Kennedy says, even with today's job, WTI crew
Speaker 3: is still up more than forty percent since the conflict
Speaker 3: began on the last day of February.
Speaker 2: Only then, several airline executives say it will take several
Speaker 2: months to normalize even if the Strait of horm Moves
Speaker 2: is opened. And as a root in Bakar is the
Speaker 2: CEO of the Malaysia Aviation Group.
Speaker 8: The impact the Middle East area not only just the
Speaker 8: supply of the fuel and the crude oil is at
Speaker 8: the refineryselves. Even if if the war stops, I personally
Speaker 8: believe it is going to take many, many mire months
Speaker 8: for the price to stabilize.
Speaker 2: And Malaysia Aviation in groups and as a root in
Speaker 2: Bakar made the comments at the International air Transport World
Speaker 2: to Data Symposium in Singapore.
Speaker 3: Turning two equity markets this morning, they are jumping, led
Speaker 3: by Nasdaq futures up three and a half percent or
Speaker 3: eight hundred and forty five points. SMP futures are up
Speaker 3: two and two thirds percent or one hundred and seventy
Speaker 3: seven points. In Down futures hire by eleven hundred and
Speaker 3: twenty eight points, that is a gain of almost two
Speaker 3: and a half percent. In Europe, the Stocks fifty is
Speaker 3: hired by three and a half percent, and in Asia,
Speaker 3: Japan's knee ke stock average closed higher by more than
Speaker 3: four or five percent.
Speaker 2: Well, Nathan, the rapid shifts in the war have seen
Speaker 2: stock trading intensifying. We get the details at Bloomberg's John Tucker.
Speaker 9: Investors wary of being wrong footed by twists and turns
Speaker 9: of the conflict are trading stocks at a record intensity.
Speaker 9: One technical metric, the daily turnover in the State Street
Speaker 9: spider S and P five hundred ETF trust has breached
Speaker 9: sixty billion dollars. That is a reading seen as a
Speaker 9: quote freakout indicator by Bloomberg Intelligence strategists twenty nine times
Speaker 9: this year. That record compares to twenty eight times in
Speaker 9: all of twenty twenty five. Buying on weakness has been
Speaker 9: rewarded in recent years, with markets eventually bouncing to erase
Speaker 9: declines spurred by everything from the COVID pandemic to the
Speaker 9: worst inflation scare in decades. Seasonality may also prove a
Speaker 9: tail when the S and P five hundred has notched
Speaker 9: an average April gain of one and a half percent
Speaker 9: since nineteen ninety. In New York Time, John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3: All right, John, thank you Following a couple of important
Speaker 3: stories in politics, this morning, Vice President JD. Vance is
Speaker 3: criticizing the European Union for what he sees as meddling
Speaker 3: in Hungary's election. Vans spoke alongside Prime Minister Victor Orbin
Speaker 3: on a visit to Budapest ahead of Sunday's vote.
Speaker 10: What has happened in the midst of this election campaign
Speaker 10: is one of the worst examples of foreign and election
Speaker 10: interference that I've ever seen, or ever even read about.
Speaker 10: The bureaucrats and Brussels have tried to destroy the economy
Speaker 10: of Hungary. They have tried to make Hungary less energy independent.
Speaker 4: They have tried to drive up costs.
Speaker 10: For Hungarian consumers. And they've done it all because they
Speaker 10: hate this guy.
Speaker 3: Vice President and Vance gave no evidence for his claims,
Speaker 3: and no EU leader has campaigned alongside the opposition in Hungary.
Speaker 3: Independent polls show Orban's party is on track to lose
Speaker 3: power after sixteen years.
Speaker 2: And let's turn to US politics now, Nathan. The race
Speaker 2: to fill Marjorie Taylor Green's open house seat in Georgia
Speaker 2: is complete and with nearly all the votes counted in
Speaker 2: the special runoff election, Republican Clay Fuller is projected to
Speaker 2: be to Democrat Sean Harris by a nearly twelve point
Speaker 2: margin fifty five point nine to forty four point one percent.
Speaker 2: Fuller told his supporters his victory could offer a blueprint
Speaker 2: for the midterms.
Speaker 11: When Republicans are united, when we share a common purpose,
Speaker 11: and when we understand what's at stake, we win.
Speaker 2: But Harris says he plans to run again in the
Speaker 2: general election.
Speaker 4: If we get out.
Speaker 12: In full, if we get out and.
Speaker 10: Speak our boys, we will win this election every time
Speaker 10: this election come.
Speaker 2: And Clay Fuller's victory last night expands the Republican's narrow
Speaker 2: House majority to two hundred eighteen to two hundred and
Speaker 2: fourteen plus one Independent. Time now for a look at
Speaker 2: some of the other stories making news in New York
Speaker 2: and around the world and forever. Were joined by Bloomberg's
Speaker 2: Michael Barr Michael good Morning, Good Morning.
Speaker 12: Karen, a Long Island architect accused in a string of
Speaker 12: long unsolved slangs known as the Gilgo Beach killings, is
Speaker 12: expected to plead guilty. Rex Huerman is charged with murdering
Speaker 12: seven women. A guilty plea would put him in prison
Speaker 12: for the rest of his life. Huerman is also expected
Speaker 12: to plead guilty today and the death of an eighth woman,
Speaker 12: Karen Vergana, was a thirty four year old from Manhattan
Speaker 12: who disappeared in nineteen ninety six. Last year, a judge
Speaker 12: rejected his bid to exclude DNA evidence obtained through advanced
Speaker 12: techniques that prosecutors say proves he's the killer. He previously
Speaker 12: pleaded not guilty. Meanwhile, Huerman is being sued, along with
Speaker 12: his former wife and their daughter, by the son of
Speaker 12: one of the alleged victims, Benjamin Taurus. The son of
Speaker 12: Valerie Mack, claims his mother was tortured ferociously and her
Speaker 12: body dismembered. Robert Macedonio is the attorney for Huerman's ex
Speaker 12: Asa ellerup and daughter, Victoria Huerman.
Speaker 8: The individual responsible act of the law Rex Schumann has
Speaker 8: been indicted and charged with a series of homicides, and
Speaker 8: he will have his name in court to.
Speaker 6: Answer with his charges.
Speaker 12: Macedonio called the lawsuit reckless, saying Victoria Huerman was just
Speaker 12: three years old at the time of the murders. NASA
Speaker 12: officials say the Artemis two crew is back within the
Speaker 12: influence of Earth's gravity and still on schedule to splash
Speaker 12: down on Friday, Artemis two. Lunar science lead doctor Kelsey
Speaker 12: Young said during the lunar flyby, the crew observed new
Speaker 12: on the Moon surface right away.
Speaker 13: They started describing the green around Aristarkus Plateau and different
Speaker 13: brown hughes, and these colors really help tell us nuances
Speaker 13: about the chemistry of lunar material.
Speaker 12: About half of New Yorker's approve of Mayor Zorimumdanni's job
Speaker 12: performance as he approaches his one hundredth day in office.
Speaker 12: That's according to a New Mayor's pole. Global news twenty
Speaker 12: four hours a day and whenever you want it with
Speaker 12: Bloomberg News Now Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg Karen.
Speaker 9: Thanks Michael.
Speaker 2: Time now for our Bloomberg Sports update, and for that
Speaker 2: we bring in John stash Hour.
Speaker 9: Nice there are.
Speaker 11: The Dodgers are the two times depending World Series champions,
Speaker 11: favorites to win a three pete and in Toronto, where
Speaker 11: they won Game seven last fall, they beat the Blue
Speaker 11: Jays four to one. Of the Dodgers are off to
Speaker 11: a nine and two start. The Yankees are eight and two,
Speaker 11: four runs in the eighth didning of Medversorio his second
Speaker 11: home run of the night, and the Yanks beat the
Speaker 11: A's five to three. The Lakers are playing without their
Speaker 11: three best players, Luca don Stch maybe for the rest
Speaker 11: of the season, also Austin Ree and Lebron James. Lakers
Speaker 11: lost at home to Oklahoma City by thirty six as
Speaker 11: the Bloomberg Sports Update.
Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg day Break coming up
Speaker 2: after this.
Speaker 1: Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Serious XM,
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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 3: Good Morning on Nathan Hager. A two week pause. President
Speaker 3: Trump says he is putting his war with Iran on hold,
Speaker 3: hours after threatening to wipe out its whole civilization if
Speaker 3: it would not reopen the Strait of horm movez Saamvakils,
Speaker 3: director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at
Speaker 3: Chatham House.
Speaker 14: This is a welcome pause. This is a war that
Speaker 14: nobody was winning. All sides have come out much weaker.
Speaker 14: But I still remain cautious because Iran's demands are really
Speaker 14: quite extreme, and it's hard to see them coming out
Speaker 14: having achieved everything.
Speaker 3: Saddam Vakil with Chatham House for more. We are joined
Speaker 3: from Dubai by Bloomberg Middle East correspondent and anchor of
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Horizons, Jumana Bursecchi, along with Bloomberg News Deputy Washington
Speaker 3: Bureau Chief Laura Davison. It's good to have both of
Speaker 3: you with us this morning. Jumana. I'll start with you.
Speaker 3: Where does this two week pause leave things in Irran?
Speaker 3: What are the chances that this leads to a more
Speaker 3: permanent solution?
Speaker 5: Good morning, Yeah, that's the question on everyone's mind this morning.
Speaker 5: It certainly feels tenuous. I will say before that that
Speaker 5: the entire region is breathing a sigh of relief that
Speaker 5: the very worst case scenario didn't materialize and President Chump
Speaker 5: didn't follow through on some of those threats. Of course,
Speaker 5: the language got increasingly strident as the war went on,
Speaker 5: So there is a sense of relief this morning, but
Speaker 5: again a lot of questions about whether this semi this
Speaker 5: temporary truth can actually turn into something more permanent. And
Speaker 5: namely because if we go back to the starting points
Speaker 5: all discuss did the upcoming negotiations between both the US
Speaker 5: and Iran, they're still very very far apart, and in
Speaker 5: the middle of the night yesterday Iran actually presented their
Speaker 5: ten point proposal, and some of those demands are extremely maximalist,
Speaker 5: including them maintaining that they have a right of sovereignty
Speaker 5: over passage of ships through the Strait of Hormos. They
Speaker 5: are asking for assurances that the war won't happen again.
Speaker 5: They're asking for war reparations, and the right to actually
Speaker 5: continue within Richmond as well. Many of those are non
Speaker 5: starters for the US, but obviously he's formed the foundation
Speaker 5: of the upcoming likely discussions that are going to take place,
Speaker 5: most likely in Islamabads at the end of the week.
Speaker 3: To that point, Laura, we heard President Trump called that
Speaker 3: ten point plan from Iran a workable basis for negotiations.
Speaker 3: What happened to the fifteen point plan from the US?
Speaker 15: Plans, you know, have been consistently changing over the past
Speaker 15: several weeks, and this has been sort of a you know,
Speaker 15: a point of contention going into the ceasefire is what
Speaker 15: exactly are the basis for these negotiations. The White House
Speaker 15: has said this ten point plan that Jumana mentioned, However,
Speaker 15: the White House has declined to confirm what those ten
Speaker 15: points are. You know, Trump has said that some of
Speaker 15: the reporting out there is inaccurate, but hasn't suggested exactly
Speaker 15: what the basis of negotiations are happening here. So we
Speaker 15: have a scenario where you have you know, Trump sort
Speaker 15: of suggesting that, you know, lots of these points are
Speaker 15: agreed to, but in that ten point document, you know,
Speaker 15: those would are many things that would be non starters
Speaker 15: for the US. So we have a you know, perhaps
Speaker 15: going into this two weeks seas fire with a little
Speaker 15: bit of a misunderstanding or perhaps overly rosy glasses from
Speaker 15: the US and potentially also from Iran as to exactly
Speaker 15: where each of the two sides stand at this moment.
Speaker 3: And of course there's been so much focus now in
Speaker 3: the last few days on reopening the strait of horror
Speaker 3: moves as opposed to some of the other objectives that
Speaker 3: President Trump has laid out here. Jumana, what is the
Speaker 3: difficulty for getting traffic to move through that straight.
Speaker 5: Well, the difficulty is that the Iranian Foreign Minister, even
Speaker 5: when saying that they had accepted the seas fire, also
Speaker 5: maintained that vessels would still have to get permission from
Speaker 5: Iran armed forces over the next couple of weeks. So
Speaker 5: they're still once again reiterating that they effectively have control
Speaker 5: over who and what gets to pass through the straits safely.
Speaker 5: And already we started to hear from various ministries of
Speaker 5: foreign affairs in the region, the likes of Katar Saudi
Speaker 5: Arabia putting up posts just in the last half an
Speaker 5: hour saying that they while they welcomed the seasfire, they
Speaker 5: also would like to see a return to the former
Speaker 5: status quo where shipping was free, available for oil, and
Speaker 5: balanced by international maritime law, as opposed to this new
Speaker 5: protocol that Iran is trying to set up. So as
Speaker 5: things stand out, you've got about eight hundred vessels stranded
Speaker 5: in the Persian Gulf waiting to get a signal that
Speaker 5: they can leave. Of course, there's a huge backlog, and
Speaker 5: it's unclear at this point whether any of them or
Speaker 5: many of them are going to go ahead. And we
Speaker 5: know that prior to the war, about one hundred to
Speaker 5: one hundred and twenty vessels would pass through the straight
Speaker 5: a day. Now it's trickled down to around maybe half
Speaker 5: a dozen at most, and most of those vessels would
Speaker 5: have been Iranian length so we'll see what happens in
Speaker 5: the next couple of days.
Speaker 3: And this idea of Iran taking tolls to allow passage
Speaker 3: through the strait, arguably it puts them in a much
Speaker 3: more much different position than was as you mentioned, just
Speaker 3: a few weeks ago when passage was free. Where does
Speaker 3: this Laura leave the US in this two week window
Speaker 3: now to try to come up with some kind of
Speaker 3: resolution when it comes to how things move through the strait.
Speaker 15: This is going to be the big question going into
Speaker 15: these talks, and suggests that perhaps two weeks is not
Speaker 15: enough time to get that negotiated, which could mean that
Speaker 15: we're looking at a much longer, sort of short term
Speaker 15: ceasefire while these finer are negotiated. But you know, if Iran,
Speaker 15: you know, is coming into these the ceasefire with with
Speaker 15: effective control over the straight of horror moves, they've suggested
Speaker 15: they will allow ships to pass. But exactly what that
Speaker 15: looks like and how much control they over that have
Speaker 15: over that remains to be seen. But if they are,
Speaker 15: you know, able to have some sort of veto power
Speaker 15: or the ability to collect tolls that gives them a
Speaker 15: leverage over the global economy that they didn't have before
Speaker 15: the start of this war. The Trump has said he
Speaker 15: wants free travel, he wants to have the essentially the
Speaker 15: straight of horm moves return to what it was like
Speaker 15: before the war. But that's going to be that's the
Speaker 15: trump card that Iran has, and that's going to be
Speaker 15: one of the things that they're going to want to
Speaker 15: hold on to the longest. Of course, that's the thing
Speaker 15: that Trump also wants to see relieve the most. So
Speaker 15: this creates a lot of tension going into these talks,
Speaker 15: you know, And of course the key point being here
Speaker 15: that this has a lot of effect over what oil
Speaker 15: prices are doing, over what gas prices are doing, and
Speaker 15: that is one of Trump's key concerns politically, domestically as
Speaker 15: well as economically.
Speaker 3: And Juman of course, all this comes to hours after
Speaker 3: President Trump threatened to lay waste to the country, essentially
Speaker 3: saying a whole civilization would be wiped out tonight. What
Speaker 3: to make of the extreme back and forth here from
Speaker 3: President Trump.
Speaker 5: Yeah, well, the language didn't go down well with anyone,
Speaker 5: i'd say, from the region, even his allies in the region. Obviously,
Speaker 5: it was deemed to be one step too far, and
Speaker 5: some people are actually saying that is what incentivized them
Speaker 5: or President Trump to back down, because he got so
Speaker 5: much pushback after that post. It seems as though Pakistan
Speaker 5: really made a last ditched effort to try to bring
Speaker 5: all sites together jd Vance, according to you know, overnight
Speaker 5: reportings seemed to have played a pivotal role as well.
Speaker 5: And then also President Trump crediting China too with bringing
Speaker 5: Iran to the negotiating table. So I guess it's one
Speaker 5: of those questions of you know, maybe he had to
Speaker 5: go that far down the escalation chain in order for
Speaker 5: things to de escalate. But at the same time, I
Speaker 5: think many people in the region would have deemed those
Speaker 5: comments to be quite insulting and diminutive and reductive and
Speaker 5: really unpresidential. So you know, the limit of what was
Speaker 5: acceptable got increasingly tested over time, and as the war
Speaker 5: went on, it was apparent that President Trump was becoming frustrated.
Speaker 5: Now this just you know, as we said, everyone's breathing
Speaker 5: a sigh of relief. It's a chance for a reset
Speaker 5: and let's see whether cooler heads prevail in becoming weeks.
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