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Speaker 1: The volume.

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Speaker 2: This is straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.

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Speaker 3: What is up, street Firefam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Street

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Speaker 3: Fire for Friday, September twenty ninth, final weekend of the

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Speaker 3: month of September. First weekend of the NFL where it

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Speaker 3: really starts to get serious.

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Speaker 4: I mean we're week four now.

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Speaker 3: If you're not in the mix and you're fading fast,

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Speaker 3: you go start to write the season off. We'll talk

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Speaker 3: a lot with our guest about the NFL this weekend,

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Speaker 3: Adam chernoffrom Right Angle Sports, a lot of gambling expertise.

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Speaker 3: I'll save best bets for the end of the podcast.

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Speaker 3: Thursday did not go great. You know what went better

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Speaker 3: was our men's league basketball game, which I'm sure you

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Speaker 3: guys are excited to hear about. It was certainly closer

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Speaker 3: than the Packers getting their doors blown off by the

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Speaker 3: Detroit Lions at home. By the way, Lambeau mystique totally

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Speaker 3: gone right. I mean, remember they lost last year in

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Speaker 3: Week seventeen to the Lions. The Jets went into Lambo

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Speaker 3: beat them. Last year the Titans went into Lambo and

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Speaker 3: beat them, and then the Lions jumped to like what

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Speaker 3: a twenty seven three lead over the Packers.

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Speaker 4: This was over.

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Speaker 3: I know they cut it to ten, but it never

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Speaker 3: felt for a second like the Packers were gonna be

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Speaker 3: back in that game. And I had to go to

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Speaker 3: my men's basketball league game at halftime, and I know

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Speaker 3: you guys care deeply, but this is the league where

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Speaker 3: I saw Mosgoff. He goes to my gym, plays hoops.

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Speaker 3: He said he was gonna play, and he's in the league.

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Speaker 3: He's on the team with a bunch of free agents,

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Speaker 3: just randos who signed up. So our team shows up

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Speaker 3: early and they start texting, Hey, Mosgoff's team has two

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Speaker 3: seven footers. And I show up and I'm like, geez,

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Speaker 3: they're big guard, play with spotty. They did get the

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Speaker 3: win in their game. And then we played the other team.

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Speaker 3: That's good, and we see these guys. They got a

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Speaker 3: lot of fringe Division two guys, and it was tough,

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Speaker 3: you know, Gray Foxes. We got the target on our back,

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Speaker 3: kind of like the Kansas City Chiefs. You know, we

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Speaker 3: roll up with our own jerseys. Everybody else is wearing

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Speaker 3: like the Pennies. And you know, I did not play well,

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Speaker 3: So I'm not out here a hype in myself but

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Speaker 3: I mean, I'm out here garding a nineteen year old

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Speaker 3: and this guy cooks me on a move. I'm like, gee,

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Speaker 3: who the hell is this guy?

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Speaker 4: Nineteen?

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Speaker 1: You know?

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Speaker 3: And your boys? I had like cotton Mouth at one

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Speaker 3: point early second half, I was so gassed.

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Speaker 4: I was like, what is happening?

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Speaker 3: We were down nine late, came back and won because

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Speaker 3: we're a team. That's what teams do. This team was

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Speaker 3: a co our opponent. Was a collection of talent, individual guys.

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Speaker 4: Awesome.

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Speaker 3: I mean I played with them before. They're good, but

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Speaker 3: they're not a team and I'm not gonna lie. I

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Speaker 3: watched Detroit Lions and folks, that is a team. Like

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Speaker 3: there is no like get me the rock, no wide receiver,

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Speaker 3: diva action on this team. You got the humble rookie

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Speaker 3: tight end Jared Goff, just out here making plays. Montgomery

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Speaker 3: comes back, goes for a buck thirty two Gibbs, who

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Speaker 3: everybody's waiting for. Gibs look so good in spurts against

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs. It's like, oh, we got a feed, Gibs

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Speaker 3: got Dan Campbell has a plan. It's heavy Montgomery and

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Speaker 3: you saw that drive after green Bay cut it to ten.

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Speaker 3: It's a dump off to Montgomery, it's a dump off

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Speaker 3: to Gibbs, and then it's run the football between the tackles.

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Speaker 3: Let our offensive line just maul and listen. At this point,

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Speaker 3: I could come out here and trash Jordan Love and

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Speaker 3: hammer Jordan Love. Oh he's garbage, He's not any good.

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Speaker 4: I'm just saying.

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Speaker 3: Last week at home to the Saints, they fall down

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Speaker 3: seventeen to nothing and should have lost that game. This

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Speaker 3: week they fall down twenty seven to three and we

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Speaker 3: could defend. Oh, the offensive lines banged. Okay, fine, you

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Speaker 3: can do that all you want. We've seen Patrick Mahomes

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Speaker 3: in the Super Bowl with a depleted offensive line look

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Speaker 3: like trash, folks, Let's be real. Jordan Love looked totally

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Speaker 3: spooked in the pocket, just absolutely rattled. Sacked five times,

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Speaker 3: pressured on more off. I believe the number was half

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Speaker 3: of his dropbacks in the first half.

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Speaker 4: He was under pressure.

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Speaker 3: Ada Hutchinson felt like he was getting like he was

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Speaker 3: in the huddle. That's how how much penetration he was

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Speaker 3: getting off the edge. It doesn't look good for the Packers.

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Speaker 3: It's still early. There's no need to panic, you know.

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Speaker 3: Bachtiari sounds like I believe he's going on, ir Rob

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Speaker 3: can check me on that. It was good to see

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Speaker 3: Christian Watson back. Aaron Jones crushed my fantasy team, all

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Speaker 3: three of them with a non factor. Of course, with

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Speaker 3: Sat Montgomery, my son not happy with his decision. But

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Speaker 3: I don't know Detroit Lions. You know, we have a

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Speaker 3: clear upper tier in the NFC. It is the forty

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Speaker 3: nine Ers, the Eagles, and the Cowboys, and I believe

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Speaker 3: in that next tier all alone is the Detroit Lions.

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Speaker 3: I don't think they're quite in that upper crust. I

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Speaker 3: know they got to win over the Chiefs. There was

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Speaker 3: no Kelsey, no Chris Jones. Let's slow down. This is

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Speaker 3: a nice win over depleted Packers team. They beat a

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Speaker 3: Falcons team that has no offense, and they did lose

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Speaker 3: to Seattle, so the defense is a little suss. But

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Speaker 3: the Detroit Lions have proven to me they are a

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Speaker 3: clear fourth best team in the NFC. Yes, narrowly ahead

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Speaker 3: of the Saints. I mean until Derek Carr returns. Like

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Speaker 3: Derek Carr's out, Jameis winz is Gon start car won't

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Speaker 3: even be active. They've got brought I don't know who

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Speaker 3: the backup is, but it's not a car. So until

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Speaker 3: Carr comes back, I can't put the Saints there, Rob.

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Speaker 3: I've got the Detroit Lions now fourth in the NFC,

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Speaker 3: and we'll see what happens with the Cowboys this weekend.

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Speaker 3: You'll we'll get the best bets. I've talked about the

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Speaker 3: Patriots all week, and then after that they got the Niners.

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Speaker 3: The Cowboys do, and then after that they have the Chargers,

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Speaker 3: who are off a bye week. So there's a tough

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Speaker 3: stretch for Dallas and the dreams of home field advantage

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Speaker 3: in Jerry World are going to fade fast if they

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Speaker 3: can't beat the Patriots and Detroit slowly climbing the charts.

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Speaker 3: I don't know, Rob, this looks like a pretty darn

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Speaker 3: good Detroit Lions scene.

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Speaker 5: Absolutely, and I think that's fair to say that they

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Speaker 5: right now, if you were to really classify the hierarchy

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Speaker 5: and NFC, that four seems about right. What I will

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Speaker 5: say about them, though, is that to me, they have

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Speaker 5: more potential than the Dallas Cowboys, just you know, on

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Speaker 5: an upward trajectory. Because this Detroit Lions team, what you

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Speaker 5: can say about them during the Dan Campbell airas hasn't

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Speaker 5: been good just point blank period. I believe that they

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Speaker 5: only won like four of their first twenty five games,

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Speaker 5: like it was just bad. And then last season they

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Speaker 5: start off really poorly again and they go on a run,

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Speaker 5: and just when they get to a point in the

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Speaker 5: season where like, hey, they could sneak into the playoffs,

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Speaker 5: like look out, Detroit's won I think six in a row,

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Speaker 5: and they're right there. They give up three hundred and

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Speaker 5: twenty yards rushing to the Carolina Panthers and effectively end

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Speaker 5: any hopes of making the postseason. This season, they answer

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Speaker 5: them with all this fanfare and they get opening a

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Speaker 5: night on against Kansas City in Arrowhead. They shock the

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Speaker 5: defending champions. Obviously, you know, got it drops there, shout

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Speaker 5: out the Caadarius Tony played a big role, but they

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Speaker 5: got it done. They follow that up with the biggest

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Speaker 5: home opener I think in their franchise for at least

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Speaker 5: like the last ten fifteen years against Seattle. They lose

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Speaker 5: to a average Seattle team at home in a game

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Speaker 5: they had no business losing, but they mean Detroit. If

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Speaker 5: Detroit's gonna get to where they want to go, that's

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Speaker 5: a game you gotta win, right especially coming out for

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Speaker 5: a big win against Kansas City, and then last night

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Speaker 5: they go up twenty seven to three. They look like

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Speaker 5: they're on a cruise control and Green Bay suddenly cuts

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Speaker 5: it down to ten. And credit to Detroit for settling down,

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Speaker 5: riding the ship, so to speak, and pulling away there

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Speaker 5: in the fourth and making sure it was never really

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Speaker 5: in doubt. They are slowly but surely learning how to

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Speaker 5: handle success. And that's the biggest issue when you have

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Speaker 5: an upstart team like Detroit Lions team, because history has

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Speaker 5: not been kind to Detroit right They they haven't made

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Speaker 5: the playoffs in six seasons. They have one single playoff

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Speaker 5: victory in the last sixty five years. They have not

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Speaker 5: won their division since then. Yes, they haven't.

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Speaker 3: Not that's Scott Mitchell one playoff win.

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Speaker 5: They have one post. They won a playoff game in

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Speaker 5: thirty one years ago against the Cowboys.

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Speaker 3: Against oh Okay. That might have been Scott Mitchell. Herman

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Speaker 3: Moore on I'm throwing a shot in the dark.

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Speaker 5: I'd have to look it at myself.

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Speaker 3: That's okay, that's way worse than the gy that's worse

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Speaker 3: than the Browns.

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Speaker 5: That is worse than it's worse than my raiders.

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Speaker 4: All right.

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Speaker 5: Detroit hasn't won their division since ninety three when it

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Speaker 5: was called the NFC Central Right, so they have a

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Speaker 5: history of losing of mediocrity, and when these things kind

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Speaker 5: of flip the script, it doesn't happen overnight, you know,

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Speaker 5: because you're not used to dealing with being the hunted

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Speaker 5: as opposed to the hunter. So far, the previous two

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Speaker 5: instances where they had a chance to really cement their

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Speaker 5: status as the next up and coming team, they fizzled, right,

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Speaker 5: you know, the loss against Carolina was big, and then

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Speaker 5: the home opener this season hurts a little bit because

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Speaker 5: in the NFC, when it's you know, only two teams

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Speaker 5: that are really you would consider upper echelon tier teams,

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Speaker 5: which would be in Philadelphia and San Francisco, you know,

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Speaker 5: you got a chance to sneak in and maybe get

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Speaker 5: a bye because you're your divisions about that great and

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Speaker 5: they dropped the ball. So in this case, it looked

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Speaker 5: like they were prime to do it again, and credit

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Speaker 5: to them, they didn't. They are slowly becoming what you

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Speaker 5: would hope that they would have become. All that hype

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Speaker 5: that we had in the offseason, them getting more bets

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Speaker 5: to anybody to win the NFC, to win the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 5: those kind of things. It seemed far fetching the time

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Speaker 5: to me. But now you see why everyone was so

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Speaker 5: excited about it. If they can maintain the level head

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Speaker 5: and not allow themselves to get drawn into the roller

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Speaker 5: coaster that is the NFL season, they could be right there.

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Speaker 5: You know, come December, well, they're gonna have to do

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Speaker 5: it because they're losing. Ben Johnson that OC is going

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Speaker 5: to get a job somewhere. He called such a good

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Speaker 5: first half. I was at the dinner table with the kids,

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Speaker 5: and I see the reverse developing. And before the reverse

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Speaker 5: even happened, you could see the entire Green Bay defense

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Speaker 5: suck to one side of like, oh oh, that's a

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Speaker 5: big play, and Rayven breaks off like a forty yard run.

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Speaker 5: Ben Johnson's in his bag early, Rob we did do this.

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Speaker 5: After the Chiefs, I looked at the schedule. I said, uh, oh,

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Speaker 5: lines are about to get hot.

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Speaker 3: But then they lost to Seattle.

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Speaker 4: We kind of put them aside.

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Speaker 3: Next up they host Carolina. They will be probably seven

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Speaker 3: point favorites, maybe more. Okay, then they are at Tampa.

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Speaker 3: I would not be surprised if they were favored on

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Speaker 3: the road. If Tampa continues to swoon, then the big

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Speaker 3: one at Baltimore that was so they should be I'll

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Speaker 3: say they should be five and one.

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Speaker 4: Going to Baltimore.

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Speaker 3: Then the Raiders. Your Raiders at home Monday night football. Listen, man,

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Speaker 3: they'll go into.

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Speaker 4: The buy no disrespect, Rob.

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Speaker 3: I think they'll be six and two, and at that

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Speaker 3: point you got to seriously start thinking, like who else

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Speaker 3: is winning the division? I think we could write the

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Speaker 3: Bears off even if they win this weekend. I think

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Speaker 3: the Bears are toast.

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Speaker 4: Would you agree?

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Speaker 5: Absolutely?

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Speaker 3: Yes? Okay, Vikings beat the Panthers this weekend, I would

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Speaker 3: give them a slim chance at one.

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Speaker 4: And three to come back in the division.

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Speaker 3: And you remember they still have two against the Lions,

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Speaker 3: so they'll have definitely a chance to make up ground.

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Speaker 4: We're not done with the Vikings, right, No.

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Speaker 5: I mean they got a lot of talent. It's just

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Speaker 5: they got to close these games, that's all. Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, And so.

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Speaker 3: We're left with the Packers, who I know people want

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Speaker 3: to like, and there's a lot too like and Jordan

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Speaker 3: Love's been up and down, and I don't know, Rob,

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Speaker 3: I personally did not see it. They now have Raiders

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Speaker 3: Broncos Vikings Rams, so like a potential get right zone

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Speaker 3: they do have. It looks like a buy Oh no,

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Speaker 3: they have Monday Night football next hmm against Raiders.

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Speaker 4: Yeah yeah interesting.

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Speaker 3: So overall, I'd say, big, big, big win for the

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Speaker 3: Detroit Lions. And I think I starting to believe. What

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Speaker 3: do they call it?

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Speaker 4: Restore the roar?

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Speaker 3: Is that what the phrasing is?

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Speaker 5: If it is, I like it. It's clever, but I

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Speaker 5: think it personally, do not know that?

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Speaker 4: I don't know. Have you given any thought to the

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Speaker 4: Jared Goff redemption?

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Speaker 3: You know he was kind of cast aside by the Rams.

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Speaker 3: Oh come on, they get they maxed out, they got

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Speaker 3: to a super Bowl.

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Speaker 4: He's not a winner.

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Speaker 3: Everybody focused on what he couldn't do. And I don't know, man,

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Speaker 3: Jared Goff looks he looks like a top fifteen, maybe

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Speaker 3: top twelve quarterback in the league right now, he's just

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Speaker 3: Ben Johnson has a lot to do with it. But

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Speaker 3: the offensive line, like, I don't know, you look at

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Speaker 3: I don't know what his goth's making salary wise, but

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Speaker 3: I'll tell you right now, I'd rather have golf than

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Speaker 3: Daniel Jones at that salary. Like it's not even close, right.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'd rather have Jared Goff than Jimmy Garoppolo, that's

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Speaker 5: for sure.

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Speaker 3: I'd rather say, yeah, And now it helps that he's

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Speaker 3: behind that line, right, that offensive line is stacked.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, but he was making and throws last night. I mean,

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Speaker 5: once it got to down to ten and the definitive

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Speaker 5: drive where they ended up punching it in. I think

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Speaker 5: it was like a seventy five yard drive. Yeah, Montgomery

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Speaker 5: punched it in for his third touchdown. The biggest plays

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Speaker 5: on that drive, even though it was very methodical, were

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Speaker 5: first down play actions where Goff had to get outside

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Speaker 5: the pocket and fire like fifteen seventeen yards strikes. And

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Speaker 5: that's ultimately what kept the Packers defense on their heels.

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Speaker 5: It's what prevented them from run blitzing, which they had

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Speaker 5: been doing most of the third quarter, and that's why

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Speaker 5: they were so sluggish. Detroit's offense, Jared Goff made the

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Speaker 5: plays when he had to, and even more importantly, he

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Speaker 5: bounced back from a very very ugly first quarter interception.

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Speaker 5: So this team is learning how to to. You know,

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Speaker 5: what good teams do. They don't get themselves in these holes.

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Speaker 5: They don't allow themselves to have you know, quicksand moments

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Speaker 5: where the bad things start stacking up on top of

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Speaker 5: each other. They're pulling themselves out of it before it's

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Speaker 5: too late. And if they can keep doing this, the

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Speaker 5: sky's the limit for Detroit. Absolutely.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, great point on GoF bouncing back after that early pick.

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Speaker 3: You know your head was down on the road. Lambo's

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Speaker 3: all fired up. The Lions defense holds there, and then

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Speaker 3: Goff comes back with an incredible drive down the field.

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Speaker 3: I'm Aron Saint Brown touchdown and the route was on.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's get to our guest, Adam Chernoff from

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Speaker 3: Right Angle Sports.

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Speaker 1: You know a guy Jason likes to think he knows

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Speaker 1: everything when it comes to sports.

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Speaker 3: I know what sports dance wants, but for.

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Speaker 1: Everything he doesn't, he knows a guy who does.

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Speaker 4: Let's just say, I know a guy who knows a

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Speaker 4: guy who knows another.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's welcome back to straight Fire. I guess

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Speaker 3: you know he's been on the pod many times. He's

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Speaker 3: moving up in the gambling world with Right Angle Sports.

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Speaker 3: Adam Churnoff just given out winners left and right like

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Speaker 3: it's Halloween candy in September.

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Speaker 2: How are you Adam, I'm good. We'll use that as

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Speaker 2: a tagline. You said it, not me, so we'll clip

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Speaker 2: that out and then we'll use it on our end.

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Speaker 3: Adam obviously does his morning podcast every day. It's like

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Speaker 3: a market report. It's like the c are you being

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Speaker 3: called like the CNBC of the sports gambling NFL market?

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Speaker 2: That's probably too high. I don't even know if that

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Speaker 2: is high praise? Where is CNBC said? But no, I

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Speaker 2: think it's become more so like ten to fifteen minutes

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Speaker 2: is part of a morning routine. That's what I get

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Speaker 2: a lot people like I listen to this every morning

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Speaker 2: doing something. It depends when you wake up or how

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Speaker 2: it goes on the way to work, walking the dog

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Speaker 2: in the shower, whatever it is. It's become part of

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Speaker 2: lots of people's morning routine. Is what it is as

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Speaker 2: an update.

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Speaker 3: And it's essentially like, hey, here's what's happening with the market,

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Speaker 3: whether it's moving half a point this way, why the

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Speaker 3: total's going down? It just bare bones, no takes, So

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Speaker 3: that's why we have them on now for the real takes.

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Speaker 3: Spitting hot fire on straight fire, Adam. It's a weird weekend,

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Speaker 3: so I know this is all baked into the number

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Speaker 3: and we're not supposed to like factor it in. But

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Speaker 3: last weekend we saw three big time upsets of favorites

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Speaker 3: of seven or more. I believe three of them lose outright,

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Speaker 3: and I think a lot of people are a little

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Speaker 3: skittish this weekend, like, hey, our upset's gonna happen. A

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Speaker 3: lot of tight lines, only one huge spread when you

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Speaker 3: look at the board, is this one of those Ooh,

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Speaker 3: I need to keep the powder dry. I'm not going

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Speaker 3: to fire that heavily this weekend, not because of that.

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Speaker 2: Just because for there were three things. One, injuries are

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Speaker 2: all over the place, and it's not so much injuries

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Speaker 2: that are like one key guy in one spot where

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Speaker 2: you're navigating, it's groups of injuries at certain positions. So

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Speaker 2: that's making it tough to really fire around a lot

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Speaker 2: of things. Two would be that there's a lot of

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Speaker 2: stuff that got bet that I thought was really good,

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Speaker 2: really really early. Couple totals aside or two got that

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Speaker 2: really really early. And then three, who kind of emphasize

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Speaker 2: the point you're making. There's been a lot of late

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Speaker 2: week money on bigger underdogs that has been interesting. So

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Speaker 2: I'm thinking about Jets, Chiefs. I'm thinking about Patriots, Cowboys,

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Speaker 2: a lot of games like that. Waiting to see a

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Speaker 2: lot of Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon moves have been

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Speaker 2: really common this year, so kind of navigating around those two.

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Speaker 2: So it's a weird week and just how the matchups

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Speaker 2: have set up overall.

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Speaker 3: So one thing I like that you do is you

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Speaker 3: identify where the money's coming in on and like what's happening.

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Speaker 3: And I don't know, maybe I'm wrong, but last week

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Speaker 3: I could have swore I saw maybe it was a

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Speaker 3: tweet from you or something, that money was coming in

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Speaker 3: on Washington and Adam. I was such a woos last Monday.

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Speaker 3: I was like Buffalo smash Spot, this is a horrible

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Speaker 3: matchup for and money came in on Washington. So I

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Speaker 3: got skittish late in the week, didn't put it in

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Speaker 3: the contest. Same thing with Denver Miami. I love Miami

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Speaker 3: right out of the gate, and then you start taking

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Speaker 3: all the outside noise in and oh no Armstead, no

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Speaker 3: Wattle and respected money. I don't know, just talk about

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Speaker 3: this whole respected money thing and first impressions and what

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Speaker 3: that means to you.

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Speaker 2: So it depends really where you're coming from perspective wise,

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Speaker 2: I think a good example of that, Like you mentioned

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Speaker 2: the Denver Miami game. It was a comment that I

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Speaker 2: got once or twice through Twitter as the week went on.

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Speaker 2: I didn't have a firm position on the side. We

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Speaker 2: were really big on the over which came through, but

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Speaker 2: with the side specifically, I got a couple comments that

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Speaker 2: were like, I really think Miami's the better team. I

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Speaker 2: want to bet on the Dolphins, but boy, this year

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Speaker 2: seems fishy, Like why isn't this number high er with

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Speaker 2: all this percentages and respected money. That's kind of where

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Speaker 2: people go when they hear that. A couple things to

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Speaker 2: think about is, first of all, if you're trying to

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Speaker 2: make the statement that a line is fishy, that's like

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Speaker 2: the big thing, right you see it online When you're

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Speaker 2: looking at those percentages that are like the bet splits

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Speaker 2: from certain sites, that really represents a lot of things

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Speaker 2: looking backwards, and most of the time represents a single

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Speaker 2: sportsbook's take within a much bigger market. And most sports

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Speaker 2: books in the market today look at one or two

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Speaker 2: very respected sports books and they just adjust their numbers

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Speaker 2: to be at the same price as those sports books

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Speaker 2: and so of course, if it's a recreational customer base,

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Speaker 2: primarily at a sports book, they're going to bet very

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Speaker 2: similarly in every single game that's posted, based on the situation,

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Speaker 2: popular teams, popular quarterbacks. It's always going to go one way.

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Speaker 2: The problem is that those people that are betting, which

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Speaker 2: people are using to identify what is fishy or not,

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Speaker 2: they aren't more skilled at losing than the average better right,

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Speaker 2: They're just betting into whatever they want every week for

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Speaker 2: non impactful amounts, and they're going to lose the big

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Speaker 2: or the juice over time. So when people are using

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Speaker 2: that to say, like, I want to respected money, is

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Speaker 2: scaring me away here because X percent of bets are

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Speaker 2: on this side. They're using something that's kind of irrelevant

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Speaker 2: to gauge something else within the market, which doesn't make sense,

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Speaker 2: and so it's really tough when you're really diving into

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Speaker 2: that to make your decisions late week, you're putting yourself

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Speaker 2: on a bad spot.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say it's more of I don't even

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Speaker 3: really look at the bets book, but I think Miami

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Speaker 3: was six and a half and then on by game day,

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Speaker 3: wasn't it like five down to five and a half?

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Speaker 3: And I'm like, jeez, I know it's not a key

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Speaker 3: number of seven, but who's betting the Broncos. I just

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Speaker 3: didn't get it. But let's take a look at one

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Speaker 3: for this week. Okay, So line comes out Pittsburgh Houston. Okay, yeah,

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Speaker 3: I think I saw three, and I'm like, okay, everybody,

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Speaker 3: you know you read the narratives or you listen to them.

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Speaker 1: C J.

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Speaker 3: Stroud's amazing because he torched the Jags. Look at the

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Speaker 3: numbers he's put up, and then people forget, like the

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Speaker 3: indie game was thirty one ten in the fourth quarter,

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Speaker 3: and then he starts maybe it was thirty one three,

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Speaker 3: starts stacking against prevent d garbage, you know, like, let's

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Speaker 3: just not overreact on Stroud to ripping apart Jacksonville. And

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Speaker 3: then you just look at what happened when they face

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Speaker 3: a pass rush the first two weeks and he got

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Speaker 3: sacked eleven times, and Adam, I know all this stuff's

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Speaker 3: out there, and I'm not splitting the atom. To me,

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Speaker 3: Pittsburgh handles this easily. They dominate the line of scrimmage,

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Speaker 3: and I don't understand. I see money coming in and

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Speaker 3: it's now down to Pittsburgh two and a half. I'm like, well,

435
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:20,800
Speaker 3: I got a dumb number. Am I gonna whos out

436
00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:22,800
Speaker 3: again when it comes comes time for the contest?

437
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:26,920
Speaker 2: Okay, So the big thing here is that the respected

438
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:28,280
Speaker 2: money for we're going to deem it that way, the

439
00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:31,359
Speaker 2: bets that move this market. Right, we're early in the week,

440
00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:34,680
Speaker 2: so that's when it's a lot easier to influence a market.

441
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:39,520
Speaker 2: But also second, they liked the Texans at four and

442
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:42,240
Speaker 2: a half, they like the Texans at four. Here's another

443
00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:44,760
Speaker 2: problem that you get into. So people will see this, right,

444
00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:47,160
Speaker 2: they're looking at the game now it is Texans plus

445
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:50,600
Speaker 2: three and they're like, wow, X percent is on this

446
00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:54,320
Speaker 2: team coming in this way, and they use that percentage

447
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:57,879
Speaker 2: to represent what's happening. Now. The problem is that what

448
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:00,600
Speaker 2: happened and what mattered was at four and a half

449
00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:04,000
Speaker 2: and four. It's a very different story at three. And

450
00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:06,880
Speaker 2: if it gets lower than three, we're almost certainly going

451
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:10,360
Speaker 2: to see Pittsburgh money. So there could very often, as

452
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,160
Speaker 2: is the time, they'll be respected money on both sides.

453
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:15,720
Speaker 2: It's not just a one or the other. It's the

454
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:18,960
Speaker 2: number that really really matters. And so you're absolutely right

455
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:21,119
Speaker 2: when I look at this now, if I could get

456
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:23,840
Speaker 2: four and a half like it was early week, I

457
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:26,879
Speaker 2: probably like Houston too, that number was gone within minutes.

458
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:28,600
Speaker 2: And so now you have to look at this very

459
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:30,560
Speaker 2: differently and saying like where is this going to go?

460
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:33,160
Speaker 2: And I agree, if this is where we're looking at

461
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,439
Speaker 2: right now as we're speaking, I could only agree with

462
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:37,600
Speaker 2: you and look at Pittsburgh, not saying that that's a bet,

463
00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:39,840
Speaker 2: but it's a very different story than what we saw

464
00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:40,480
Speaker 2: three days ago.

465
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:42,280
Speaker 3: And the other thing is people are hearing this, well

466
00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:43,600
Speaker 3: where was it four and a half?

467
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:44,119
Speaker 4: Where was that?

468
00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 3: So let's be clear, like DraftKings obviously is a sponsor

469
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:51,400
Speaker 3: of the podcast, but like the place where it's four

470
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:54,360
Speaker 3: and a half is probably I'm guessing offshore or in

471
00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:57,359
Speaker 3: Vegas where like ninety five percent of our audience doesn't

472
00:21:57,400 --> 00:21:59,160
Speaker 3: have access to would you is that safe to say?

473
00:21:59,240 --> 00:21:59,359
Speaker 4: Or no?

474
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,720
Speaker 2: Absolutely? And you'll see that, like usually you'll get a

475
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:07,400
Speaker 2: big wave of movement and NFL sides and totals immediately

476
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:10,600
Speaker 2: after it opens. There'll be people that take it Sunday night.

477
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,479
Speaker 2: It'll be up at four or five different spots and

478
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 2: you'll see a bunch of movement Sunday night, Monday morning,

479
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 2: you'll see a lot of totals. There'll be a group

480
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:22,679
Speaker 2: that usually bets a lot of overs on Monday morning

481
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,040
Speaker 2: for a lot of like the really sort of obvious spots.

482
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 2: You'll see those totals go first thing Monday morning. There'll

483
00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 2: be a wave of sides that comes in after, and

484
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:33,159
Speaker 2: then you'll have another wave of groups to come in

485
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:36,600
Speaker 2: and play Tuesday morning, and that's just as the market populates.

486
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 2: Once Monday night football is over, you get the other

487
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,119
Speaker 2: games that are lined. Then Tuesday morning and so you

488
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:45,400
Speaker 2: get kind of Sunday night, a Monday morning window, Tuesday

489
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,000
Speaker 2: morning window, and then now you're having these Thursday and

490
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 2: Friday afternoon groups that are firing, and that's really impacting

491
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:55,239
Speaker 2: the market. So that's where you're looking at this line move.

492
00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:57,240
Speaker 2: You have to kind of put it in context to

493
00:22:57,359 --> 00:22:59,800
Speaker 2: when during the week it's happening and not just jump

494
00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:03,280
Speaker 2: to a conclusion that whatever percentage or respected money that

495
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 2: is being reported represents everything as a whole, because there's

496
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 2: a lot of layers to it.

497
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 3: So would your advice be, hey, don't look at betsplits people.

498
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:14,280
Speaker 3: I know it is an easy catnip, but some of

499
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:16,679
Speaker 3: these gambling sites and on talk shows and all this stuff.

500
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:20,880
Speaker 3: But would you just say you disregard betslips altogether, or

501
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 3: maybe it's a small piece of the pie.

502
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,639
Speaker 2: My advice would be that if you're using it to

503
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:29,680
Speaker 2: dictate where you're betting, especially later in the week, you're

504
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,920
Speaker 2: kind of putting yourself in a difficult situation because you're

505
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 2: using something that represents something that happened a lot earlier

506
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 2: in the week, and maybe at sportsbooks you're not looking

507
00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:43,160
Speaker 2: at to dictate your decision when you should be looking

508
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:45,679
Speaker 2: at what is currently happening. You have to remember that

509
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 2: those betslips don't specify the number that it was bet at,

510
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 2: It doesn't specify the sports book that it was bet at. Necessarily,

511
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,919
Speaker 2: it tries to imply that whatever sportsbook is reporting it

512
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 2: is moving the market. But nine times out of ten,

513
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:05,440
Speaker 2: those moves are originating at other sports books, and that

514
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,119
Speaker 2: sports book that's reporting the splits is just moving to

515
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:10,880
Speaker 2: stay in line. So you can be very misled by

516
00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:13,719
Speaker 2: a lot of these splits, and you shouldn't let it

517
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 2: dictate the bets that you were making all of the time.

518
00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:18,720
Speaker 2: That can put you in a pretty bad spot.

519
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:20,920
Speaker 3: So one more thing on Houston Pittsburgh, And again this

520
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 3: is not splitting the atom, but I'll lead it into

521
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,439
Speaker 3: something else. So Demiko Ryans is the head coach of

522
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:28,960
Speaker 3: the Texans. He was at San Francisco. San Francisco faced

523
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh in the opener, Pittsburgh could do nothing. I think

524
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 3: they had one first down in like the two minute

525
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,119
Speaker 3: warning in the first half. I know Houston doesn't have

526
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 3: the personnel, but is this is it logical to think

527
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:41,359
Speaker 3: Dimiico Ryans was on the horn with San Fran earlier

528
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,360
Speaker 3: this week, got the macro overview, here's what you need

529
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 3: to do. And again, I don't think it's going to

530
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:48,680
Speaker 3: be a perfect game plan. They don't have the talent

531
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 3: Stingley's out, But is it safe to assume there will

532
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 3: be something that Ryan's will apply based on his buddies

533
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:57,000
Speaker 3: in San Fran kicking Pittsburgh.

534
00:24:57,080 --> 00:25:01,199
Speaker 2: But earlier this year, Yeah, interesting, Angle didn't speak specifically

535
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,240
Speaker 2: for whether or not he was in contact with them.

536
00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:06,160
Speaker 2: That's certainly something that is common to see or hear

537
00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:10,480
Speaker 2: with other coaches in certain spots, So I can't speculate there.

538
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:13,120
Speaker 2: But I think you're right in the sense that it's

539
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 2: a similar defensive scheme obviously with a lot less talent

540
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,960
Speaker 2: that was really in Week one dictated by the pass

541
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 2: rush upfront, and so Houston pass rush much different level

542
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 2: than the forty nine ers pass rush overall, and so

543
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 2: yes and no, it's certainly an interesting thought and how

544
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:35,800
Speaker 2: there could be that familiarity, but I wouldn't go as

545
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 2: far as to say that that is probably like the

546
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 2: overwhelming factor and they're going to have the same amount

547
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:41,400
Speaker 2: of success.

548
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 3: I bring up familiarity because it's killed me Adam the

549
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 3: first three weeks. I'm a freaking idiot. I see it,

550
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 3: I talk about it, and I forget to apply it.

551
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 3: For for instance, Jonathan Gannon was with the Eagles. Yep,

552
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 3: magically they give the Arizona Cardinals three matchups against the

553
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:58,639
Speaker 3: NFC East to open the season. Familiarity, He's coached against

554
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:01,159
Speaker 3: these guys. He knows what they're ten are Now. I

555
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 3: know b enemy comes in and it's a little different

556
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 3: at Washington, I get, But he knows the players, knows

557
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 3: that most of the schemes teams aren't radically changing. In

558
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 3: one offseason, Gannon goes three to zero against the spread

559
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:14,120
Speaker 3: and wins out right against Dallas. I had I lost

560
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:17,439
Speaker 3: that in Survivor. Now Gannon faces a team he's not

561
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:20,720
Speaker 3: as familiar with San Francisco forty nine ers. I know

562
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 3: this line's fourteen. I know this is all baked in.

563
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:27,000
Speaker 3: There's no nothing special here that I'm saying, but this

564
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:29,960
Speaker 3: idea that Gannon and his defense, which knew intimately, Hey,

565
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,680
Speaker 3: we face these guys. Our guys know what's going on.

566
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 3: Now you're facing the Niners, and I know they're in

567
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:38,640
Speaker 3: the division. But I don't think Philly played Sanfran last year,

568
00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:40,480
Speaker 3: at least I don't think. I mean, there was a

569
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 3: playoff game, but you know there was a pretty injury.

570
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:45,520
Speaker 3: I don't know anything there for you. I like Sanfran

571
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:47,200
Speaker 3: this weeks at fourteen.

572
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:49,960
Speaker 2: So I agree with you. I like san Fran at fourteen.

573
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 2: It's an interesting thought. I haven't gone kind of that

574
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:54,920
Speaker 2: far to think about that, but you're right in saying

575
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 2: that within the matchups. A couple of things that I've

576
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 2: noticed here, First, Arizona and Ganon, whether it was entirely him,

577
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 2: whatever the situation is within that team, there's no doubt

578
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 2: they're playing extremely hard. You can see it visibly on

579
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 2: the field, and the way that he's kind of spoke

580
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:15,479
Speaker 2: about the team wanting killers being super aggressive. I gu

581
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:18,840
Speaker 2: it's really really different for him specifically. He was always

582
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 2: kind of to keep everything in front, take it easy,

583
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 2: make teams work their way down the field. It's very

584
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 2: different for Arizona, and so that's certainly something that stands out.

585
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:29,119
Speaker 2: He's got a lot of effort in all three of

586
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 2: these games, and so that familiarity angle that's certainly interesting.

587
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 2: I hadn't considered that in terms of agreeing with San Francisco.

588
00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:40,040
Speaker 2: I think the extra rest and prep for San Francisco

589
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 2: within this coaching matchup is going to go a very,

590
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 2: very long way. I think that that matters. I think that's,

591
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 2: as you mentioned, priced into an extent. But what Shanahan's

592
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:54,280
Speaker 2: offense does extremely well is exploit mismatches in the defensive

593
00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:57,120
Speaker 2: front as well as within the secondary. Really good from

594
00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:02,040
Speaker 2: the run game, isolating matchups, getting wide receivers and favorable positions,

595
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:04,880
Speaker 2: getting them open yards after the catch. When you think

596
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:08,160
Speaker 2: about how this Arizona defense is played, like they're overplaying

597
00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 2: everything to a huge extent. Upfront on the line, linebackers

598
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:15,160
Speaker 2: are flying around like there's just a ton of emotion

599
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 2: and aggression and speed that's flying all over the place.

600
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:21,400
Speaker 2: I think Shanahan plays off of that really really well

601
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:23,680
Speaker 2: within these matchups, and you give him a few extra

602
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:25,639
Speaker 2: time to kind of dial things in. And if you're

603
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 2: playing the familiarity angle, like you said, you kind of

604
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:32,400
Speaker 2: flip it. Now he knows this Arizona personnel that makes

605
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:35,280
Speaker 2: things a lot different. I think San Francisco has a

606
00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:38,640
Speaker 2: lot of success on offense just because of this aggression

607
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 2: scheme that we're seeing, which is so different for Arizona.

608
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:45,640
Speaker 3: One more is Rams and McVeigh. They were expected to

609
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 3: do horrible. I think you were leading the charge on

610
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 3: how bad they would be this year and you were

611
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 3: spot on, like they don't have a lot of talent,

612
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 3: but open up against Seattle familiarity, McVeigh owns Carol, they

613
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 3: destroy them familiarity against Shanahan. I know he doesn't have

614
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 3: a lot of success, but they did cover with that

615
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:03,000
Speaker 3: fluky field goal. They step out of the comfort zone

616
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 3: in week three and they can't do anything at all

617
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 3: against a Bengal just ineptitude left and right? What were

618
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 3: they won for ten on third down? And they end

619
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 3: up losing. They did get the push. I think I'm

620
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 3: gonna be on the Colts this week. I think I

621
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 3: heard it was you first to say that this is

622
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 3: the third road game in four weeks for the Rams,

623
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 3: and they did not stay in the Midwest. They went back,

624
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 3: I believe, to the West Coast. I saw a tagline

625
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 3: on the Rams website from like thousand Oaks, which is

626
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:33,720
Speaker 3: integer in LA So I mean it's not confirmed. I

627
00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 3: just saw the tagline. Maybe the reporter didn't travel, I

628
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:38,719
Speaker 3: don't know, but it looked like the Rams went from

629
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 3: the West Coast to Cincinnati back on a short week,

630
00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 3: and now they're going back to Indy. I kind of

631
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 3: like the Colts this week.

632
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 4: What do you think.

633
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 2: I think we can see both offenses have success. And

634
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 2: again you're right on the familiarity. This one I have

635
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 2: a little more insight into. And so that Week one

636
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 2: game against Seattle, the defensive scheme that Seattle put forth

637
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 2: on the field in Week one, as well as what

638
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 2: San Francisco did in the first half specifically, was almost

639
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 2: identical and how they wanted to play the Rams. And

640
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 2: there's a lot from Shanahan post Week two where he

641
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 2: was saying how upset he was with how they played

642
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:16,959
Speaker 2: defensively in the first half. And then we saw the

643
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 2: flip made at halftime. A lot of changes forty nine

644
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 2: or shut him down. Lou Anroumo one of the best

645
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:26,200
Speaker 2: defensive coordinators week to week game planning, but also in

646
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:30,720
Speaker 2: game adjustment wise. He's really well renowned for that. Again,

647
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 2: like you mentioned zero of ten before that late drive

648
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 2: where they scored a touchdown to get the push on

649
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 2: third down, just two hundred yards total, and more than

650
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 2: half of that came from just three plays out of

651
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 2: three and a half quarters, and so looked a lot

652
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 2: different for the Rams once Stafford wasn't able to get

653
00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 2: the ball out really quickly once there was a little

654
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 2: bit of pressure on the wide receivers. Colts aren't necessarily

655
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 2: a step up in class in any way, much more

656
00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:00,080
Speaker 2: the opposite. So I think we see the Rams off

657
00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 2: look a lot better than it did on Monday night,

658
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 2: and I think the Colts offense looks a lot better

659
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 2: with Anthony Richardson under center. And this is really going

660
00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 2: to give the Rams defense a lot of trouble as well,

661
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 2: especially with the Colts oowl line a lot healthier too.

662
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 2: And so if I have to look for anything, I

663
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 2: look towards points in that game more so than I

664
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 2: would decide.

665
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 3: I'm assuming the Masters are going to want action on

666
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:28,440
Speaker 3: Buffalo Miami game of the week. Miami looks incredible. I

667
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 3: already took Buffalo at minus two and a half. I'm

668
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 3: curious where you come in on this game. I know,

669
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 3: like the Josh Allen's nine and one against against Miami.

670
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 4: I don't know.

671
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 3: It feels like the defense of Buffalo will be by

672
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 3: far the toughest that the dolphinsive faced, but Patriots kind

673
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:50,240
Speaker 3: of slowed them down, and I think I don't even

674
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 3: love Buffalo this season. I feel like Buffalo can hang

675
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 3: and probably win this.

676
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 2: I'm torn on this one. I'm with you that if

677
00:31:57,200 --> 00:31:59,520
Speaker 2: I was forced to pick a side, I could only

678
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 2: look at buff flow minus two and a half. When

679
00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 2: I think back to the playoff game Skyler Thompson started

680
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:06,960
Speaker 2: for the Dolphins, Bill Bill's closed fourteen and a half

681
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 2: point favorites. That's right, it's two and a half now,

682
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 2: So I get to the Dolphins just hung seventy. I

683
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:15,240
Speaker 2: get the Tua is in. I get that they're much

684
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:17,680
Speaker 2: improved versus where they were a year ago. Like I

685
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 2: get it, boy, are we going to say that that's

686
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 2: twelve and a half points improved versus where they were

687
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 2: just three games ago. When you look at it like,

688
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 2: I don't know, I don't know if you can get

689
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 2: there as good as they have looked. But on the

690
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 2: other hand, something I'd say about the Bills defense. So

691
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 2: Sam Howell with Washington last week, not much there to

692
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 2: threaten you deep, Jimmy garopp in week two, not much

693
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 2: there the threat and you deep. Zach Wilson in week one,

694
00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 2: not much. They're the threat and you deep. And the

695
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 2: couple glimpses we have had where the secondary of the

696
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 2: Bills was tested a little bit. Looks like everybody back

697
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:56,800
Speaker 2: there's just a little bit, maybe a step slower than

698
00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 2: they have been, maybe a little bit weaker than they

699
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 2: have been as well. Like it's just it's not the

700
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 2: same Bill's secondary that was so dominant that we've seen

701
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 2: in a couple of years prior McDermott takes over. The

702
00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 2: front seven looks amazing, don't get me wrong, but if

703
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:12,680
Speaker 2: Tua is getting the ball out of his hand in

704
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:15,440
Speaker 2: two point three seconds per snap, it doesn't matter how

705
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 2: great you are at bringing pressure. It doesn't matter how

706
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 2: great this Bill's front seven has looked. They're not getting

707
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 2: home to this REP two or this offense, and so

708
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 2: I think this secondary for Buffalo is really going to

709
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 2: get tested, and I'm worried that it's not as good

710
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:30,320
Speaker 2: as it has been in years past, and maybe that

711
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:32,720
Speaker 2: shows through. So as much as I want to get

712
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 2: Buffalo here again, Jason's just a week like this, I

713
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:38,600
Speaker 2: just can't get to it with Buffalo two and a half.

714
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 3: So you have put out some really good videos as well.

715
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 3: I think I saw one of the Raiders ahead of

716
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:47,880
Speaker 3: the Steelers. I'm curious, like, when you're doing these videos,

717
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 3: you're obviously breaking down film. Tua has been great. He's

718
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 3: now the favorite to win the MVP. We got it, Okay,

719
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 3: how much is this? Like if it's fifty to fifty,

720
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:02,160
Speaker 3: you remember the whole Brady Belichick. Who's more important? Would you

721
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 3: say McDaniel's like seventy five too? Is twenty five or

722
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 3: is it a little closer than that? Because I know

723
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 3: all this too excitement.

724
00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:08,360
Speaker 4: I get it.

725
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:11,360
Speaker 3: He looks incredible, but I just want to spin it forward,

726
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:15,480
Speaker 3: like I don't. I just feel like McDaniel may not

727
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:17,560
Speaker 3: go the route of hey, we're gonna pay this guy

728
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 3: with the Giants paid Daniel Jones because he's gonna want

729
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 3: more than that, and I you know, I know you're

730
00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 3: into gambling. This is less of a gambling topic, but

731
00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:26,919
Speaker 3: I'm trying to think spinning forward, what do you see

732
00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:29,840
Speaker 3: the Dolphins doing and how do you anticipate the to

733
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:31,360
Speaker 3: uh McDaniel's breakdown.

734
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:34,120
Speaker 2: I think it's close to the fifty to fifty than

735
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 2: it is seventy twenty five. I don't know if McDaniel

736
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 2: has had the success he has in the first three

737
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 2: weeks of the season, if he has someone who can't

738
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:44,839
Speaker 2: get the ball out of his hand as quickly as

739
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:47,439
Speaker 2: Tua has, and if he has someone that hasn't been

740
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:51,200
Speaker 2: as accurate as to has been through three weeks. So

741
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 2: I think that that kind of comes together. I do

742
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:56,799
Speaker 2: think the part of this is kind of like San Francisco,

743
00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 2: where it doesn't really matter what quarterback you put into

744
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:02,319
Speaker 2: that offense. Shanahan's going to get a lot out of it.

745
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 2: And McDaniel has sort of the same offensive roots grounded

746
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 2: within the run game, and with so much speed around

747
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:13,399
Speaker 2: what Tua is doing, it makes it really easy, There's

748
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:16,239
Speaker 2: no question about it. So a lot of quarterbacks who

749
00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:18,920
Speaker 2: are in like a mediocre system could probably step in

750
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 2: here with all the speed, skill and brilliant run design

751
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 2: and do really really well, right, But I think that

752
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:26,759
Speaker 2: to his accuracy and how quick he can get the

753
00:35:26,760 --> 00:35:30,240
Speaker 2: ball out certainly takes this offense to the next level.

754
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 2: But there's no doubting that McDaniel week to week is

755
00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:35,440
Speaker 2: becoming one of the most brilliant game planners that there

756
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 2: is league wide. So I think it's a fifty to

757
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 2: fifty split more than it is just McDaniel getting to

758
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:42,320
Speaker 2: to an incredible level.

759
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:44,759
Speaker 3: I don't know if it was the first thing they did,

760
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 3: but once Mahomes got paid, I think one of the

761
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:49,080
Speaker 3: first things that happened was Tyreek Hill, Hey, we can't

762
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:53,480
Speaker 3: afford you, dude, and this he's got Ramsey Tyreek Wattle's

763
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:57,239
Speaker 3: got to get paid soon. Sure, Bradley Chubblick, I don't

764
00:35:57,239 --> 00:35:58,879
Speaker 3: know about paying to it, but that's for another week.

765
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:01,400
Speaker 3: Let's go to the Browns. I have the Browns as

766
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:04,680
Speaker 3: one of the teams that I'm considering this week against

767
00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:07,480
Speaker 3: the Ravens. Divisional matchup can always be a little risky.

768
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 3: Ravens are beat up. We know that the cluster injuries

769
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:14,560
Speaker 3: you outlined up top but uh, it's Cleveland Browns offense.

770
00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:17,880
Speaker 3: Can they do anything against Baltimore? I mean Deshaun Watson

771
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:22,160
Speaker 3: resting a sore shoulder, so throwing shoulder or what. I

772
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 3: was stunned at that. But your thoughts on the.

773
00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:27,319
Speaker 2: Game, Yeah, disagree with taking the Browns on that side.

774
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:30,239
Speaker 2: I'd look at the Ravens getting three points. I think

775
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 2: that's more interesting. Here's what I'd say about this one.

776
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:36,520
Speaker 2: The Browns defense looks amazing. Yeah, think about how good

777
00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:39,040
Speaker 2: the Dolphins defense is or Dolphins offense. Part of me

778
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 2: has been through three weeks. Right, you have that kind

779
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 2: of picture in your head. We just talked about it.

780
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:46,759
Speaker 2: If you look at an EPA per play basis, the

781
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:51,760
Speaker 2: Browns defense is better than what the Dolphins have done

782
00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:54,839
Speaker 2: on offense from a per play perspective, if you're using

783
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:58,640
Speaker 2: the same metric. So that puts in perspective how good

784
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:02,879
Speaker 2: the Browns defense has been. Now here's where you kind

785
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 2: of start to think about things a little bit. Week one,

786
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 2: it was Joe Burrow, who's hobbled, and it's a matchup

787
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:12,440
Speaker 2: they always struggle against. Week two was Kenny Pickett and

788
00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 2: a Steelers offense nothing but struggled. You want to talk

789
00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 2: about familiarity. There you go two familiar matchups for the

790
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:21,800
Speaker 2: Browns against struggling offenses, and then last week was Ryan

791
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:25,520
Speaker 2: Tannehill and the Titans offense. They can't do anything. They

792
00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 2: now face Baltimore in this spot, Lamar Jackson has really

793
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:31,239
Speaker 2: had to rely on his legs because of all the

794
00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:34,320
Speaker 2: injuries around him. Todd Monkin has not been able to

795
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:36,480
Speaker 2: shift this Ravens offense into what he wants it to

796
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:40,240
Speaker 2: be because they're just loaded with injuries. However, we start

797
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:43,719
Speaker 2: to see positive news pop up. You have Tyler Linderbaum

798
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:46,960
Speaker 2: back at practice, expected to go on Sunday, Ronnie Stanley

799
00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:50,239
Speaker 2: back at practice, expected to go on Sunday. If those

800
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:52,960
Speaker 2: two offensive line guys are up front, the Ravens are

801
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:55,319
Speaker 2: finally going to be able to run a little bit

802
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:57,920
Speaker 2: of the Todd Munkin offense rather than being stuck with

803
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:00,640
Speaker 2: Monkin trying to run the Roman offense and just letting

804
00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 2: Lamar run around. So not only do I think this

805
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:06,840
Speaker 2: is a Brown's defense that is incredibly good, but playing

806
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 2: at a level that's just silly and unsustainable, But now

807
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:13,160
Speaker 2: they face a Ravens offense that maybe a little bit

808
00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:15,880
Speaker 2: discounted for what they've done. This is a game on

809
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 2: the look ahead. That was Ravens two and a half

810
00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:20,880
Speaker 2: point favorites. Now the other side to three, Jason, So

811
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:23,360
Speaker 2: I have to look at the Ravens here getting three.

812
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 2: I couldn't get there with the Browns. I think that

813
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:27,200
Speaker 2: offense for Baltimore looks a lot better.

814
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:29,960
Speaker 3: Ooh, well, I didn't realize. I got it forgot. There's

815
00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 3: so much stuff you got to consume here. Yeah, that

816
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:35,399
Speaker 3: is a bigger five. Yeah, let's go Patriots Cowboys for sec.

817
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:39,640
Speaker 3: I think I saw something about Zeke Elliott's familiarity. He

818
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 3: tore up our Jets. By the way, Adam's a Jets fan.

819
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 2: We'll get there.

820
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:47,960
Speaker 3: Sixteen carries eighty yards, Zeke revenge game nonsense. And then

821
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:50,880
Speaker 3: you had the Belichick gamesmanship by picking up the quarterback

822
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 3: from West Virginia Greer, who have been with the Cowboys,

823
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 3: and you just wonder what is Bill up to.

824
00:38:58,520 --> 00:38:58,920
Speaker 4: I don't know.

825
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 3: I like the I mean I took him at six

826
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:02,719
Speaker 3: and a half obviously, or I'm sorry, I took them

827
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:04,759
Speaker 3: at seven. It's down six and a half. I don't

828
00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 3: know if it's as appealing there seven being a key

829
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 3: number anything jump out to you in this game. I

830
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:11,880
Speaker 3: know people think the sky is falling for McCarthy, but

831
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:14,959
Speaker 3: you put McCarthy against Belichick, I'm taking Belichick ten times

832
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:16,399
Speaker 3: out of ten, all.

833
00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:20,880
Speaker 2: Right, So you coaching mismatch probably favors the Patriots. The gamesmanship,

834
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:24,160
Speaker 2: like you mentioned, I think favors it. My question here though,

835
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 2: and where I would kind of disagree with taking the

836
00:39:26,560 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 2: Pats would be if we're at six and a half

837
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 2: for the Cowboys, maybe even the six might show up eventually.

838
00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:35,320
Speaker 2: Here what people taking the Pats last week for Dallas

839
00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:39,239
Speaker 2: was just brutal because you lose Trayvon Diggs really late

840
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:43,600
Speaker 2: in the week, right, that happened late Thursday, disrupted Friday.

841
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:46,480
Speaker 2: You all of a sudden have to go into Arizona

842
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:50,160
Speaker 2: and figure out how to reshuffle your entire defense because

843
00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:53,120
Speaker 2: you take your number one corner out. Gilmour goes over

844
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:56,000
Speaker 2: a little bit old in the tooth. Nowadays, he's a

845
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:58,319
Speaker 2: great number two, not a number one. You had the

846
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:01,920
Speaker 2: blown coverages, you have guys struggling to community like, it's

847
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:04,920
Speaker 2: just a mess for Dallas. And on offense, they get

848
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 2: to the red zone five times, they can't get the

849
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:09,080
Speaker 2: ball in the end zone. It's just one of those

850
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:12,520
Speaker 2: games against Arizona where everything went wrong in terms of

851
00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:17,040
Speaker 2: what we're gonna get from the Patriots. Like, I still

852
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:20,719
Speaker 2: think this Cowboys defense is really really good, and you

853
00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 2: haven't seen the Patriots been able to get out and

854
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 2: build a lead outside of facing the lowly Jets, where

855
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:29,160
Speaker 2: they struggled to move the football against the Jets defense

856
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:32,400
Speaker 2: that's twentieth on the season, and so this offense for

857
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:34,399
Speaker 2: New England hasn't been able to get going. I think

858
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 2: you see a much better Dallas defense this week than

859
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:39,879
Speaker 2: what you saw last week. And I wonder if this game,

860
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:43,240
Speaker 2: going from Cowboys seven and a half look ahead, opened

861
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:46,280
Speaker 2: the expense of seven, we're now down through very important

862
00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 2: number at seven. Is it just going too far based

863
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 2: on that one game we saw a week ago where

864
00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:54,120
Speaker 2: it was a bad spot. I kind of have to

865
00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:56,360
Speaker 2: look at Dallas in this one at less than a touchdown.

866
00:40:56,680 --> 00:40:58,880
Speaker 3: Interesting we can wrap up with the Jets. I mean,

867
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:00,600
Speaker 3: there's not much to say. I'm sure you rather talk

868
00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 3: about Taylor Swift. Listen, people think this is all hot

869
00:41:06,640 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 3: taky going with you know this, this whole angle about Oh,

870
00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:15,200
Speaker 3: bring in Kirk Cousins, Jason wants to bring in Kirk

871
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:16,680
Speaker 3: Cousins and all these people a poo pooing it. I

872
00:41:16,719 --> 00:41:19,440
Speaker 3: did talk to a salary cap guy yesterday and like,

873
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:23,000
Speaker 3: my gut feeling is, behind the scenes the Jets are

874
00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:27,040
Speaker 3: acting like hey, on the outward, hey, we're good with Zach.

875
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:30,080
Speaker 3: We're good with Zach. But behind the scenes they're kind

876
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:31,960
Speaker 3: of slow playing this, hoping that they could get the

877
00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:35,359
Speaker 3: Vikings to eat more the salary give up draft picks.

878
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:38,239
Speaker 3: I know people aren't keen on bringing in Cousins. I

879
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:41,040
Speaker 3: saw Ryan Tannehill report, Like, give me a break. I

880
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 3: don't know what. You can't punt a season. You're seeing

881
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:46,359
Speaker 3: the sideline fights. Guys are freaking out. We don't even

882
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 3: know if Rogers is coming back next year.

883
00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:51,240
Speaker 2: Here's what annoys me, and I'll speak as a Jets

884
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:56,320
Speaker 2: fan now. Last year, Zach Wilson with his postgame comments.

885
00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 2: I'm putting this entirely on Wilson. He throws the defense

886
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:02,560
Speaker 2: under the bus multiple times. He divided that locker room right,

887
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:06,799
Speaker 2: and Robert Solas stood up for the defense, which is

888
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:09,719
Speaker 2: his unit as a defensive minded head coach, the one

889
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:12,040
Speaker 2: he's most invested in he stood up for those guys

890
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:15,840
Speaker 2: bench Zach Wilson just basically tossed him to the side.

891
00:42:16,280 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 2: After that, there were rumors like we'll develop him, we'll

892
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 2: try and make it work. Whatever. This year, he's taken

893
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:24,239
Speaker 2: a full one eighty and a public one eighty saying

894
00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 2: that Wilson's our guy, we believe in him, We're not

895
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:29,160
Speaker 2: going to throw him away. And I think that's what's

896
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:31,880
Speaker 2: dividing this team. But as a fan, that's what upsets

897
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:34,799
Speaker 2: me so much because you look at the defensive unit

898
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:36,880
Speaker 2: and you're like, this is as like could be a

899
00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:39,360
Speaker 2: top five defense in the NFL. And there was so

900
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:43,279
Speaker 2: much optimism preseason, like why is Salah taking this one

901
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:46,480
Speaker 2: eighty now? And I don't know if it's because everyone

902
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 2: else has said no. I don't know if it's a

903
00:42:48,680 --> 00:42:51,160
Speaker 2: salary thing they haven't been able to make work. But

904
00:42:51,400 --> 00:42:55,680
Speaker 2: to me, bringing in Trevor Simeon it doesn't solve anything,

905
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:58,400
Speaker 2: Like you're not getting it's going to be better than Wilson,

906
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 2: because anything's better than Wilson, But like do a little

907
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:06,080
Speaker 2: bit better or don't do anything, like find out another solution,

908
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:10,719
Speaker 2: but like going from quarterback fifty of fifty four to

909
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:13,440
Speaker 2: quarterback forty four of what.

910
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:13,839
Speaker 1: Are you up?

911
00:43:14,000 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 2: I just it was so disappointing to see it, and

912
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 2: I just I put myself in that defensive side, and

913
00:43:20,719 --> 00:43:22,680
Speaker 2: it's like, what are we doing here? We're just wasting

914
00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:25,600
Speaker 2: the season. So I would have taken Danhal, I would

915
00:43:25,600 --> 00:43:28,439
Speaker 2: have taken Cousins gladly. Yeah, either one if it could

916
00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:31,400
Speaker 2: have worked. But this just seems like such a waste

917
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:32,240
Speaker 2: at this point.

918
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:35,279
Speaker 3: So let's say Jets lose on Sunday night Football Island game.

919
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:39,359
Speaker 3: You know these are magnified, I mean exponentially. Jets lose

920
00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:40,280
Speaker 3: thirty eight thirteen.

921
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:42,120
Speaker 2: Oh, there's no way he comes back. I know where

922
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 2: you're going there, No, Hugh can't, right, Okay, so let

923
00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:45,759
Speaker 2: have started again.

924
00:43:45,960 --> 00:43:49,400
Speaker 3: Okay, I totally agree. But then there's still more primetime

925
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 3: games this season. They have like pie profile games because

926
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:55,440
Speaker 3: the Rogers Adam, I know, people think solid six, this

927
00:43:55,560 --> 00:43:57,719
Speaker 3: idea that they're just gonna, oh, they're just gonna be okay,

928
00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 3: getting humiliated on national TV moultiple times because Aaron Rodgers

929
00:44:01,760 --> 00:44:04,840
Speaker 3: might come back next year. You know how these billionaires operate.

930
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 3: I'm sure you talked to plenty of billionaires in the

931
00:44:07,600 --> 00:44:10,120
Speaker 3: field you're in at him. These guys they do whatever

932
00:44:10,120 --> 00:44:12,200
Speaker 3: the hell they want. And this idea that Sala's gonna

933
00:44:12,680 --> 00:44:15,080
Speaker 3: get kept around if they win four or five games,

934
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:18,880
Speaker 3: you think he's getting kept in. Joe Douglas, who bricked

935
00:44:18,920 --> 00:44:21,200
Speaker 3: on Beckden and Wilson, you think they're both surviving this.

936
00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:25,239
Speaker 2: Here's my thing. If salav would have stayed consistent with

937
00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:28,160
Speaker 2: the story, if he would have went last year after

938
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:31,439
Speaker 2: benching Wilson and kept it as like a way off

939
00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:35,200
Speaker 2: development project, right, and then kind of played this off

940
00:44:35,440 --> 00:44:38,799
Speaker 2: as he did after week one, where he's like, our

941
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:41,959
Speaker 2: season's not over yet, We're gonna make it work. Don't

942
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:44,960
Speaker 2: write us off, and like kept that supported the defense,

943
00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:48,480
Speaker 2: doubled down on the strains, pushed forward, and just kind

944
00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:50,040
Speaker 2: of played this to where it's a bit of like

945
00:44:50,080 --> 00:44:54,360
Speaker 2: an unfortunate circumstance with the injury. I think it looks

946
00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:57,480
Speaker 2: and would be received a lot differently. My problem is

947
00:44:57,760 --> 00:45:01,840
Speaker 2: that he's supporting Wilson, not just post week one, but

948
00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:04,400
Speaker 2: he did it post week two, he did it post

949
00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:08,000
Speaker 2: week three. He's like doubling and tripling down on Wilson,

950
00:45:08,040 --> 00:45:10,759
Speaker 2: which we know is not going to last. And if

951
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:13,719
Speaker 2: it becomes a situation where Okay, now he switches to

952
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:17,319
Speaker 2: Simeon and Simeon struggles, is he going to double down

953
00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:20,520
Speaker 2: and support that? Like, where does this go? He's almost

954
00:45:20,520 --> 00:45:24,440
Speaker 2: put himself in this situation by taking that turn instead

955
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:27,040
Speaker 2: of supporting the defense, which I think would have played

956
00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:29,760
Speaker 2: awful lot better. And so I don't know if he's

957
00:45:30,280 --> 00:45:33,640
Speaker 2: like at risk to be fired, but I think he's

958
00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:37,440
Speaker 2: at risk to see this team completely crumble because of

959
00:45:37,480 --> 00:45:39,000
Speaker 2: how he's presented himself here.

960
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:42,279
Speaker 3: Disappointing Adam turn off Right Angle Sports obviously follow his

961
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:46,840
Speaker 3: podcast Simple Handicap Adam, good luck this weekend in gambling.

962
00:45:46,880 --> 00:45:48,919
Speaker 3: I know you don't need it, you're big time pro,

963
00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:50,960
Speaker 3: but thanks for taking the time, buddy.

964
00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:53,880
Speaker 2: Can I leave with the prop for the listeners before

965
00:45:53,920 --> 00:45:56,400
Speaker 2: we go? Because I've kind of waffled on sides and totals.

966
00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:58,440
Speaker 2: It's tough a lot of things that move. I haven't

967
00:45:58,440 --> 00:46:01,440
Speaker 2: really given anything, so I can give something before we go.

968
00:46:01,719 --> 00:46:08,920
Speaker 2: Fire away Miles Sanders receiving yards over anything better than

969
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:13,080
Speaker 2: nineteen and a half. Right now, he's priced around sixteen seventeen.

970
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:16,120
Speaker 2: You're probably gonna get Bryce Young back under center. But

971
00:46:16,400 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 2: also because of how Minnesota plays defense, Brian Flores, Jason,

972
00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:23,720
Speaker 2: this is nuts. He's blitzing sixty three percent of snaps,

973
00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:27,040
Speaker 2: which is unli like. You don't ever see that. But

974
00:46:27,200 --> 00:46:31,040
Speaker 2: he plays his corners way off in coverage pre season.

975
00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:33,239
Speaker 2: You've listened to the podcast, you know where I'm going

976
00:46:33,280 --> 00:46:35,960
Speaker 2: with this. He plays everybody off coverage. He wants to

977
00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:38,200
Speaker 2: just blitz as much as he can, but he doesn't

978
00:46:38,200 --> 00:46:40,600
Speaker 2: trust his corners to play man. So you have this

979
00:46:40,719 --> 00:46:43,439
Speaker 2: like all in defense avefront, which this week he said

980
00:46:43,480 --> 00:46:45,879
Speaker 2: he wants more of believe it or not. But then

981
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:48,040
Speaker 2: you have these corners playing way off. So if young

982
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:50,480
Speaker 2: is in under center, Sanders is going to be this

983
00:46:50,520 --> 00:46:52,840
Speaker 2: outlet guy behind the blitz, and he's gonna have a

984
00:46:52,840 --> 00:46:55,920
Speaker 2: lot of space between these corners. And there's some injuries

985
00:46:55,920 --> 00:46:58,920
Speaker 2: for Carolina, not only in the secondary, but at linebacker

986
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:03,280
Speaker 2: as well. So watch for Miles Sanders receiving yards. We'll

987
00:47:03,360 --> 00:47:05,600
Speaker 2: say twenty and a half here for the show as

988
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:07,960
Speaker 2: the number, which is which is better than what's out there,

989
00:47:08,000 --> 00:47:10,080
Speaker 2: but I'll leave everyone with that. You can look at

990
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:11,520
Speaker 2: that for Miles Sanders on Sunday.

991
00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:13,239
Speaker 3: It feels like a lock already. You were by the

992
00:47:13,239 --> 00:47:15,960
Speaker 3: way you had that running back Karen Williams over.

993
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:19,680
Speaker 2: Yep, that was he played one hundred percent of snaps,

994
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:22,160
Speaker 2: which is in this day and age crazy, and so

995
00:47:22,200 --> 00:47:25,680
Speaker 2: that play was us saying lots of targets, lots of snaps.

996
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:28,920
Speaker 2: If they do that with him much more going forward,

997
00:47:29,760 --> 00:47:33,120
Speaker 2: he'll set NFL records, which he's not built to do.

998
00:47:33,200 --> 00:47:36,239
Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. So I think it's a

999
00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:41,000
Speaker 2: similar spot with Sanders, especially with young If Dalton happens

1000
00:47:41,040 --> 00:47:43,439
Speaker 2: to get the freak start, he'll be just fine as well.

1001
00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:46,000
Speaker 2: So Sanders over receiving yards.

1002
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:47,800
Speaker 3: Good stuff, Adam, thanks a lot, to talk.

1003
00:47:47,680 --> 00:47:49,840
Speaker 2: To you soon, Thanks very much. Enjoy the games.

1004
00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:52,239
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Speaker 1: The only thing better than sitting on your couch watching

1030
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1031
00:49:27,280 --> 00:49:28,320
Speaker 1: your best bet.

1032
00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:33,239
Speaker 3: Great stuff from Adam Chernoff right Angles Sports. He's a

1033
00:49:33,280 --> 00:49:35,600
Speaker 3: good follow and honestly, his podcast every morning is just

1034
00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:38,400
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1035
00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:43,280
Speaker 3: see where numbers are going. Let's go to best bets here, folks.

1036
00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:44,880
Speaker 3: I don't think we can do as well as we

1037
00:49:44,920 --> 00:49:48,560
Speaker 3: did last Sunday. Last Sunday, I'm counting we had one push.

1038
00:49:48,640 --> 00:49:51,280
Speaker 3: We lost the over on Eagles, Bucks, we lost Jacks

1039
00:49:51,680 --> 00:49:53,000
Speaker 3: and then won everything else.

1040
00:49:54,600 --> 00:49:55,160
Speaker 2: Oh I'm sorry.

1041
00:49:55,200 --> 00:49:59,440
Speaker 3: Lost Cowboys hit, Bills, hit the Broncos, Dolphins over hit Chargers,

1042
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:02,960
Speaker 3: it under on Raiders, Dealers hit Browns, hit Pittsburgh. It

1043
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:04,839
Speaker 3: was a monster weekend. I don't know if we can

1044
00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:07,440
Speaker 3: duplicate that. So here's what we got. I'm on the

1045
00:50:07,480 --> 00:50:10,040
Speaker 3: Colts like an idiot. I got minus one. As I

1046
00:50:10,040 --> 00:50:13,759
Speaker 3: look at it now we're recording this Thursday night, I

1047
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:16,960
Speaker 3: see a plus one for the Colts overall. Not a

1048
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:20,480
Speaker 3: huge swing there. I mean, listen, I explained it. If

1049
00:50:20,480 --> 00:50:22,400
Speaker 3: you missed it with Schernoff and you're just fast forwarding

1050
00:50:23,200 --> 00:50:24,240
Speaker 3: looking for the best bets.

1051
00:50:25,080 --> 00:50:25,680
Speaker 4: Now it's pick them.

1052
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:28,359
Speaker 3: I'm sorry, it just moved to pick them, so listen.

1053
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:30,640
Speaker 3: Bottom line is it's one one way or the other,

1054
00:50:30,800 --> 00:50:32,640
Speaker 3: or pick them. I like the Colts in this You

1055
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:35,799
Speaker 3: can listen to the explanation from Churnoff. We talked in

1056
00:50:35,840 --> 00:50:39,520
Speaker 3: depth about that game. Next up, I have the Saints

1057
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:42,439
Speaker 3: minus three. Oh no, let's see what that's at right now.

1058
00:50:42,600 --> 00:50:45,959
Speaker 3: I got that earlier in the week. Saints are at

1059
00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:49,480
Speaker 3: home against Tampa. It looks like heads up to three

1060
00:50:49,520 --> 00:50:51,400
Speaker 3: and a half a lot of places. So the thought

1061
00:50:51,400 --> 00:50:55,719
Speaker 3: process here was short week, Saints defense is really impenetrable,

1062
00:50:55,760 --> 00:50:57,360
Speaker 3: and I know that the people are gonna play up

1063
00:50:57,360 --> 00:51:00,560
Speaker 3: the Jameis Winston narrative in Jameis Winston revenge game and

1064
00:51:00,640 --> 00:51:04,160
Speaker 3: Jameis Winston stinks. And I'm just gonna remind you guys,

1065
00:51:04,760 --> 00:51:08,799
Speaker 3: the Eagles ran all over Tampa. They ain't fixing that.

1066
00:51:08,880 --> 00:51:13,160
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay secondary banged up Dean and is it Carlton Davis. Yeah,

1067
00:51:13,320 --> 00:51:16,680
Speaker 3: Dean and Davis both injured. We'll see what their status is.

1068
00:51:16,880 --> 00:51:19,879
Speaker 3: But on a short week, divisional opponent, and they're going

1069
00:51:19,880 --> 00:51:22,759
Speaker 3: into the bye week, so this is like, oh man,

1070
00:51:22,800 --> 00:51:25,000
Speaker 3: we're going into a by so probably a vacation week

1071
00:51:26,280 --> 00:51:29,719
Speaker 3: for Tampa. Tough divisional opponent on short rest. And oh,

1072
00:51:29,760 --> 00:51:31,680
Speaker 3: by the way, you just got run over. Well, guess what,

1073
00:51:33,080 --> 00:51:36,680
Speaker 3: Alvin Kamara's back without. They don't want They're not gonna

1074
00:51:36,880 --> 00:51:39,319
Speaker 3: Dennis Allen's gonna call a conservative game year. He's not

1075
00:51:39,320 --> 00:51:42,120
Speaker 3: gonna want Winston chucking at twenty five thirty five times.

1076
00:51:42,239 --> 00:51:43,960
Speaker 3: It's gonna be a lot of Taysom Hill, a lot

1077
00:51:43,960 --> 00:51:47,239
Speaker 3: of Kamara. I think ground and pound, low scoring. I

1078
00:51:47,239 --> 00:51:49,240
Speaker 3: would look at the under. I do believe the Saints

1079
00:51:49,239 --> 00:51:50,719
Speaker 3: get the job done here. You know, I like the

1080
00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:53,200
Speaker 3: Saints a lot this year. I haven't loved what I've seen.

1081
00:51:53,239 --> 00:51:55,960
Speaker 3: They should have beat the Packers, but I'm I'm confident

1082
00:51:56,000 --> 00:51:59,080
Speaker 3: in Saints minus three. I got the over on Broncos Bears.

1083
00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:01,040
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna waste your time. I just think this

1084
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:04,840
Speaker 3: will be a poop show, no defense at all from anybody.

1085
00:52:05,200 --> 00:52:07,320
Speaker 3: And Russ has actually put up pretty good numbers, and

1086
00:52:07,360 --> 00:52:09,480
Speaker 3: I think this is the game where Fields probably bounces back.

1087
00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:12,920
Speaker 3: I took the under in Raiders Chargers. This is just blind.

1088
00:52:13,080 --> 00:52:15,000
Speaker 3: I don't know who the quarterback is for the Raiders.

1089
00:52:15,200 --> 00:52:17,400
Speaker 3: I don't think it's Aidan O'Connell. If it's Brian Hoyer,

1090
00:52:17,400 --> 00:52:20,440
Speaker 3: if feel great about this under under fifty minus one

1091
00:52:20,480 --> 00:52:20,960
Speaker 3: twenty nine.

1092
00:52:21,000 --> 00:52:21,759
Speaker 4: Lot of juice there.

1093
00:52:21,960 --> 00:52:23,640
Speaker 3: I got the Steelers at three. We talked about it

1094
00:52:23,680 --> 00:52:25,799
Speaker 3: with Adam in the interview. If you missed it, it's

1095
00:52:25,800 --> 00:52:27,279
Speaker 3: douted two and a half listened. I didn't get a

1096
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:30,759
Speaker 3: great number. I'm in disagreement with all the sharps and

1097
00:52:31,440 --> 00:52:34,680
Speaker 3: whoever's moving this market. I like the Steelers. They just

1098
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:36,719
Speaker 3: think they control the line of scrimmage. I love this

1099
00:52:36,760 --> 00:52:40,200
Speaker 3: setup for them against a young quarterback. And I'm riding

1100
00:52:40,239 --> 00:52:43,439
Speaker 3: with Pittsburgh Cleveland Browns minus two and a half. Another

1101
00:52:43,480 --> 00:52:47,280
Speaker 3: game we talked about, I have forty nine Ers minus fourteen.

1102
00:52:47,320 --> 00:52:49,640
Speaker 3: We talked about that. We got into a little bit

1103
00:52:49,640 --> 00:52:51,960
Speaker 3: of Patriots. As you can see, I'm leading Adam to

1104
00:52:52,040 --> 00:52:56,760
Speaker 3: questions mostly regarding picks for my games. Patriots are plus

1105
00:52:56,960 --> 00:52:58,960
Speaker 3: seven minus one to fifteen. That was early in the week.

1106
00:52:59,000 --> 00:53:02,759
Speaker 3: That's long gone. Obviously, seven a key number, and I

1107
00:53:02,800 --> 00:53:05,040
Speaker 3: talked about this Monday. There's a lot of people. We

1108
00:53:05,040 --> 00:53:06,120
Speaker 3: can see the numbers on the pod.

1109
00:53:06,120 --> 00:53:06,359
Speaker 2: Guys.

1110
00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:09,120
Speaker 3: Some people are just tuning in Friday for the best bets.

1111
00:53:09,120 --> 00:53:10,759
Speaker 3: It's like, oh yeah, well, I'm not gonna listen to

1112
00:53:11,040 --> 00:53:13,680
Speaker 3: the prognosis all week. I'm not gonna listen to the

1113
00:53:13,719 --> 00:53:16,120
Speaker 3: analysis the process. I just want to give me the

1114
00:53:16,120 --> 00:53:19,480
Speaker 3: picks that never usually works well because you're not getting

1115
00:53:19,480 --> 00:53:23,000
Speaker 3: the best number. Bills Dolphins under fifty four, super risky,

1116
00:53:23,520 --> 00:53:28,840
Speaker 3: almost dumb on my part. Some interesting nuggets that I

1117
00:53:28,840 --> 00:53:32,640
Speaker 3: do want to float. I probably won't take the Bills

1118
00:53:32,640 --> 00:53:36,320
Speaker 3: in the contest, but I do like the Bills against Miami.

1119
00:53:36,960 --> 00:53:38,400
Speaker 3: I know that's not gonna be super popular.

1120
00:53:38,400 --> 00:53:38,759
Speaker 4: I get it.

1121
00:53:38,960 --> 00:53:41,719
Speaker 3: I mentioned during the interview Josh Allen nine and one

1122
00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:44,160
Speaker 3: against Miami. Also keep an eye on his prop for

1123
00:53:44,280 --> 00:53:47,360
Speaker 3: rushing yards he's averaging in those ten games fifty I

1124
00:53:47,360 --> 00:53:49,840
Speaker 3: believe it's fifty two rushing yards per game against Miami.

1125
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:53,400
Speaker 3: Now listen vic Fonngio, different defense. Maybe he mixes up

1126
00:53:53,400 --> 00:53:55,719
Speaker 3: the looks, but I think Alan has a good game here.

1127
00:53:55,760 --> 00:53:57,840
Speaker 3: I don't think he's thrown it all over creation and

1128
00:53:57,880 --> 00:54:01,760
Speaker 3: screwing around. I think it's a It's a solid effort

1129
00:54:01,760 --> 00:54:04,000
Speaker 3: from Josh Allen and a win. I know I said

1130
00:54:04,000 --> 00:54:07,839
Speaker 3: I was going against Lamar. I had somebody texting me, Jay,

1131
00:54:08,120 --> 00:54:11,200
Speaker 3: you're going against Lamar again. You went against him when

1132
00:54:11,239 --> 00:54:14,360
Speaker 3: you took the Bengals. Lamar eleven one one ats as

1133
00:54:14,400 --> 00:54:16,840
Speaker 3: an underdog. I'm just fine, bringing on good luck against

1134
00:54:16,840 --> 00:54:25,440
Speaker 3: the Browns defense. What other numbers do I have here? Oh? So,

1135
00:54:25,560 --> 00:54:28,640
Speaker 3: I think I mentioned this yesterday on the Herd. Two

1136
00:54:28,680 --> 00:54:32,360
Speaker 3: teams are playing their third road game in four weeks,

1137
00:54:32,560 --> 00:54:35,160
Speaker 3: the Miami Dolphins and the La Rams. If you noticed,

1138
00:54:35,160 --> 00:54:38,680
Speaker 3: I'm going against both of them. I don't know what

1139
00:54:38,840 --> 00:54:41,480
Speaker 3: is there, but there's something it has to be there,

1140
00:54:41,880 --> 00:54:44,719
Speaker 3: whether it's just sheer exhaustion, especially on the part of

1141
00:54:44,719 --> 00:54:46,560
Speaker 3: the Rams, and we got into that in the interview.

1142
00:54:46,719 --> 00:54:48,520
Speaker 3: I think that stuff matters. I know, Jay, they're flying

1143
00:54:48,560 --> 00:54:49,680
Speaker 3: first class, they're getting messages.

1144
00:54:49,760 --> 00:54:50,399
Speaker 4: What are they worried about?

1145
00:54:50,440 --> 00:54:52,319
Speaker 3: Okay, fine, you guys, do it, go for it. Tell

1146
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:53,360
Speaker 3: me how, tell me how it works.

1147
00:54:53,560 --> 00:54:53,879
Speaker 2: I fly.

1148
00:54:55,120 --> 00:54:58,480
Speaker 3: I think I flew three saturdays in a row in

1149
00:54:58,520 --> 00:55:03,240
Speaker 3: the summer, a vacation. It was to Charlotte to see

1150
00:55:03,520 --> 00:55:07,600
Speaker 3: the soccer team, uh Nikoxa, and another weekend I forget that.

1151
00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:09,759
Speaker 3: Oh it might have been going to Vegas to sign

1152
00:55:09,800 --> 00:55:12,200
Speaker 3: up for the gambling contest. And I'm just telling you,

1153
00:55:12,239 --> 00:55:14,520
Speaker 3: I was exhausted. And these aren't even long flights. I mean,

1154
00:55:14,600 --> 00:55:17,680
Speaker 3: Charlotte's across the country. Actually Hawaii's is six hour flight,

1155
00:55:17,719 --> 00:55:20,520
Speaker 3: but the Vegas one's short and I'm not even playing

1156
00:55:20,520 --> 00:55:23,120
Speaker 3: a football game when I land. You know, obviously I'm

1157
00:55:23,160 --> 00:55:25,960
Speaker 3: not like twenty five or whatever, but I I just

1158
00:55:26,080 --> 00:55:29,960
Speaker 3: know the travel is going to be a factor in

1159
00:55:30,040 --> 00:55:32,960
Speaker 3: the wear and tear, you know, especially second half. You know,

1160
00:55:33,040 --> 00:55:35,040
Speaker 3: if Rams happened to be up in the first half,

1161
00:55:35,080 --> 00:55:37,399
Speaker 3: I mean, I'll probably jump in at halftime and bet

1162
00:55:37,440 --> 00:55:37,920
Speaker 3: on the Colts.

1163
00:55:39,280 --> 00:55:40,200
Speaker 4: I'm trying to look at the.

1164
00:55:40,320 --> 00:55:42,600
Speaker 3: Any other games of Vikings Panthers. I missed the best

1165
00:55:42,640 --> 00:55:45,440
Speaker 3: number on the Vikings. I'm gonna consider them in the contest.

1166
00:55:45,440 --> 00:55:47,240
Speaker 3: A lot of that's gonna hinge on the Panthers' injury

1167
00:55:47,239 --> 00:55:49,480
Speaker 3: report because so many they might be done, like five

1168
00:55:49,560 --> 00:55:53,120
Speaker 3: starters from week one on the defense, and Minnesota is

1169
00:55:53,239 --> 00:55:55,920
Speaker 3: rolling on offense. I mean, Minnesota can't stop anybody, But

1170
00:55:56,680 --> 00:56:00,319
Speaker 3: I don't know. Bryce Young is an actual upgrade from

1171
00:56:00,360 --> 00:56:02,840
Speaker 3: Andy Dalton, at least at this stage in his career.

1172
00:56:03,120 --> 00:56:08,160
Speaker 3: And the final game I want to touch on is

1173
00:56:08,320 --> 00:56:11,040
Speaker 3: uh on. No, wait, we already did. We did a

1174
00:56:11,040 --> 00:56:13,200
Speaker 3: little san Fray in Arizona. I mean, double digit favorites.

1175
00:56:13,239 --> 00:56:15,520
Speaker 3: You're not gonna win long term betting them. I'm sorry,

1176
00:56:15,600 --> 00:56:19,200
Speaker 3: I'm taking San fran So not as many bets as

1177
00:56:19,280 --> 00:56:24,279
Speaker 3: last weekend non clarity on the final picks in the

1178
00:56:24,280 --> 00:56:27,520
Speaker 3: gambling contest. Boy, last I had been on a good

1179
00:56:27,520 --> 00:56:32,040
Speaker 3: Thursday streak. In the opener, hit Detroit money Line, in

1180
00:56:32,280 --> 00:56:35,840
Speaker 3: week two, I got the push on vite On Eagles

1181
00:56:35,880 --> 00:56:38,280
Speaker 3: in Vikings, and in week three I hit the Niners.

1182
00:56:38,640 --> 00:56:41,120
Speaker 3: So I'm feeling good and I had Packers and folks.

1183
00:56:41,960 --> 00:56:45,320
Speaker 3: I mean, that is as gutless of a home performance

1184
00:56:45,360 --> 00:56:47,279
Speaker 3: as you will see on a Thursday night. Now, I

1185
00:56:47,280 --> 00:56:49,799
Speaker 3: know they're banged up, but one last thing, as you

1186
00:56:49,800 --> 00:56:53,200
Speaker 3: head into your gambling weekend offensive line injuries. You saw

1187
00:56:53,239 --> 00:56:56,120
Speaker 3: them mounting for the Packers and that pocket was just

1188
00:56:56,160 --> 00:56:58,480
Speaker 3: collapsing on Jordan Levey had no chance in the first quarter.

1189
00:56:58,840 --> 00:57:00,880
Speaker 3: You could tell, like two drive. I texted my buddy,

1190
00:57:00,880 --> 00:57:03,080
Speaker 3: I'm like, this is over. Forget it. They can't do

1191
00:57:03,120 --> 00:57:07,520
Speaker 3: anything and offensive line injuries matter. So like I'm watching

1192
00:57:07,520 --> 00:57:10,359
Speaker 3: the Ravens offensive line. Significant injuries there, Let's see what's

1193
00:57:10,360 --> 00:57:13,719
Speaker 3: going on. Colts were missing a guy last week, Gordon

1194
00:57:13,760 --> 00:57:16,720
Speaker 3: Minshew got sacked five times. Like these offensive line injuries

1195
00:57:16,720 --> 00:57:19,320
Speaker 3: are huge unless you're Miami, of course, who were missing

1196
00:57:19,360 --> 00:57:21,440
Speaker 3: their left tackle and Jayla Watto last week and they

1197
00:57:21,440 --> 00:57:24,160
Speaker 3: put up seventy. But I digress. Anyways, that's it for

1198
00:57:24,200 --> 00:57:25,960
Speaker 3: the week. Good luck with the gambling.

1199
00:57:26,440 --> 00:57:27,280
Speaker 4: I'll talk to you Monday.