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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff give you, guys, the best independent.

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Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible.

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Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that,

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Speaker 2: let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday.

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Speaker 2: We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do

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Speaker 2: we have, Crystal?

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Speaker 1: Indeed, we do. Many interesting things developing this morning. We've

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Speaker 1: got new details in that second Trump assassination attempt, a

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Speaker 1: new questions for the Secret Service.

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Speaker 4: Kamala Harris actually did.

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Speaker 1: Another solo sit down interview, so we want to dig

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Speaker 1: into those less than satisfying answers that she gave. Joe

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Speaker 1: Rogan with some interesting commentary on the debate. Bill Maher

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Speaker 1: was some interesting commentary on the election. Dave Portnoy was

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Speaker 1: some interesting commentary on weed. Of course, we couldn't miss

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Speaker 1: that one given Soccer's interest in the subject. Some very

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Speaker 1: serious things developing with regard to foreign policy, both in Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: and Israel, both of which point in the direction of

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Speaker 1: further terrifying escalation. So we did not want to miss that.

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Speaker 1: And we've got a new guest on the show today.

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Speaker 1: He runs an election model, taking a look at all

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Speaker 1: the polls and feeding them in and seeing what he

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Speaker 1: thinks is going to happen this November.

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Speaker 4: So we're excited to talk to him as well.

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Speaker 3: Yes we are.

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Speaker 2: And before we get to any of that, thank you

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Speaker 2: to all of our premium subscribers. We're going to be

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Speaker 2: doing our Ask Me Anything later today. We do it

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Speaker 2: live from our studio here and we broadcasted exclusively on locals,

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Speaker 2: so if you want to go ahead and subscribe and

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Speaker 2: be a part of that Breakingpoints dot com. Before we

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Speaker 2: get to all the stories that Crystal just laid out,

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Speaker 2: we actually had a major breaking story that just happened

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Speaker 2: this morning.

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Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and put this up there on the screen.

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Speaker 2: We wanted to make sure we gave people some of

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Speaker 2: the details because this story know many are interested in.

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Speaker 3: Sean P.

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Speaker 2: Diddy Combs has been arrested in Manhattan after a grand

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Speaker 2: jury indictment. So it was literally just happened late last night.

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Speaker 3: Sehn P. Didy Combs was taken into.

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Speaker 2: Custody by the US Southern District of New York and

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Speaker 2: by the US Marshall Service at about eight thirty pm

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Speaker 2: at the hotel where he was staying, the Park Hyatt

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Speaker 2: on fifty seventh Street. The indictment and the charges against

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Speaker 2: him remain sealed by the federal government, but we do

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Speaker 2: know that this was an investigation that was led by

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Speaker 2: the Homeland Security Department, specifically HSI, which often investigates sex

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Speaker 2: trafficking cases.

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Speaker 3: Quote.

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Speaker 2: The March raids that we all brought everybody live coverage

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Speaker 2: of at the time, demonstrated that they were converging on

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Speaker 2: his mansion in Los Angeles. He was then later, you know,

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of speculation as to exactly where he

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Speaker 2: was and whether.

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Speaker 3: He was fleeing.

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Speaker 2: They could be seen carrying out electronics and all of

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Speaker 2: this is in the context of a lot of the

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Speaker 2: lawsuits and videos that have come out about Combs since

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Speaker 2: I guess the last couple of years, past relationships, violence,

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Speaker 2: and many of the other stories that have been alleged

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Speaker 2: against him. But obviously him as a titanic development, not

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Speaker 2: only in the case against him, but kind of looking

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Speaker 2: at the entire music industry, something that's been trailing in

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Speaker 2: for almost thirty years, and very very interested to see

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Speaker 2: what is in that unsealed or in that currently sealed

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Speaker 2: indictment against him. Southern District of New York again a

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Speaker 2: very i guess, probably one of the most important jurisdictions

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Speaker 2: in all of law enforcement in the United.

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Speaker 1: States, no doubt. It's one of the most high profile

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Speaker 1: federal courts. Probably excuse me. Between that and the Alexandria

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Speaker 1: Federal District Court, which handles a lot of terrorism cases,

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Speaker 1: those are probably the two most significant and powerful jurisdictions

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Speaker 1: in the country. Just to remind people of some of

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Speaker 1: the horrifying details here, This whole saga and learning about

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Speaker 1: some of the horrible things that have been alleged and

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Speaker 1: in fact were caught and revealed on video started when

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Speaker 1: R and B singer Cassie came forward with a series

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Speaker 1: of horrifying allegations, including things that would be tantamount to

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Speaker 1: sex trafficking. In addition, you know, are being drugged and

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Speaker 1: forced into horrible things. Her being beaten video was eventually

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Speaker 1: revealed from a hotel security camera that fit perfectly to

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Speaker 1: a t Some of the horrors that she described. Now

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Speaker 1: he immediately settled, but that really opened the floodgates. And

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Speaker 1: so this individual, who you know, as a millennial, he

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Speaker 1: was sort of the pinnacle of pop and hip hop culture.

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Speaker 1: You know, what we have learned about him and the

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Speaker 1: criminal behavior that is now alleged to have occurred across

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Speaker 1: multiple women across multiple states over years and years and

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Speaker 1: years has been shocking and horrifying. So, you know, everybody

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Speaker 1: deserves their day and core, but what's already in the

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Speaker 1: public sphere is pretty damning.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the videos alone, not to mention the testimony and

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Speaker 2: some of the things he's only already either not admitted

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Speaker 2: to or settled in cases have been outrageous.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's exactly right.

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Speaker 1: And then these always raise the questions too of Okay, well,

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Speaker 1: he had a lot of handlers around him, He had

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Speaker 1: a lot of you know, other stars who were around him,

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Speaker 1: and allegedly, you know, at some of these parties where

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Speaker 1: these rapes and sexual assaults and druggings, et cetera occurred.

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Speaker 4: So who knew what when? How big was the circle?

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Speaker 3: You know?

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Speaker 1: Was this one of those apparently open secrets in Hollywood

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Speaker 1: and pop culture that everyone just turned a blind eye

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Speaker 1: to or perhaps participated in, or perhaps enabled, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: Those are some of the questions that go beyond Sean Diddycombs.

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Speaker 1: Not that this wouldn't be a gigantic and horrifying story

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Speaker 1: just on its own with him being the only perpetrator involved.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, great point, And what it does mean is that

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Speaker 2: it will face a lot of inquiries into his businesses

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Speaker 2: in the past, going all the way back to the

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Speaker 2: early nineteen nineties, including some of the allegations that are

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Speaker 2: against him. The HSI involvement is what really put you know,

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Speaker 2: put a lot of flags on the case because it

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Speaker 2: demonstrated this specifically a sex trafficking investigation, and of course

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Speaker 2: you know, the charges and the years that those hold

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Speaker 2: could be really stunning when we eventually see what the

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Speaker 2: end result of this. Like we said, Crystal, you know,

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Speaker 2: Sean Combs maintains his innocence. He say, quote, he's an

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Speaker 2: imperfect man, but that does not mean that he is

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Speaker 2: a criminal. And they say that he remains innocent of

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Speaker 2: the charges. We don't yet know what those charges are,

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Speaker 2: and when we get full details, we'll bring it to

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Speaker 2: Everybody wanted to make sure they got that arrest in

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Speaker 2: the show. Let's go ahead and move on then to

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump and to some of the new revelations that

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Speaker 2: we have about this attempted assassination of Donald Trump at

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Speaker 2: his golf course in West Palm Beach, Florida. We now

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Speaker 2: have body camera footage that has been released showing Ryan

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Speaker 2: Rout's arrest by the authorities. Remember, Ryan Routh was on

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Speaker 2: the golf course, he was spotted by Secret Service agents.

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Speaker 2: Secret agents actually took a shot at him. He was

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Speaker 2: able to drop his rifle fleet get into his vehicle,

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Speaker 2: which was parked nearby, drive away to a different county.

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Speaker 2: It was only because a bystander nearby took a picture

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Speaker 2: of his license plate and the make of the car

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Speaker 2: that they were able to apprehend him so quickly. They

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Speaker 2: eventually corner him on a road. And here's how that

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Speaker 2: all went down. Let's go ahead and take a listen.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna play some of this. So what we can

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Speaker 2: see here is Ryan Routh. He's here, He's got a

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Speaker 2: shirt up over his head, likely so that they could

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Speaker 2: make sure that he didn't have anything that was on

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Speaker 2: his person, and then he's getting arrested. There he could

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Speaker 2: see that they basically cornered him on a road and

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Speaker 2: made sure that they were able to arrest him without incident.

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Speaker 2: So he did appear in court yesterday, and some of

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Speaker 2: the details that are now alleged in the criminal complaint

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Speaker 2: are absolutely crazy. This really does tell the story of

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Speaker 2: the secret Service failure. So in the criminal complaint that

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Speaker 2: was filed by federal prosecutors, the affidavit says from T

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Speaker 2: mobile phone records indicate that Ryan Round's mobile phone was

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Speaker 2: quote located in the vicinity of the area along the

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Speaker 2: tree line from one fifty nine am until approximately one

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Speaker 2: thirty one pm, so he was in and around the

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Speaker 2: Trump golf course for a stunning twelve hours quote. The

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Speaker 2: affidavit also says local law enforcement told them Ralph was

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Speaker 2: driving a Nissan with the license plate belonging to a

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Speaker 2: FOD truck that had been reported stolen. So there are

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Speaker 2: so many sketchy things that are going on right now

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Speaker 2: with respect to mister Ralph Christl because not only in

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Speaker 2: the criminal complaint, I was just reading some more details

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Speaker 2: this morning. He was under investigation multiple times by the

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Speaker 2: FBI as a convicted felon known in possession of a firearm.

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Speaker 2: In fact, federal authorities were flagged to him about him

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Speaker 2: multiple years ago, including from a nurse who was returning

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Speaker 2: from Ukraine and she told customs officers returning to the

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Speaker 2: United States, she said, you need to watch out for

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Speaker 2: this guy. He is crazy, he's violent, he's a problem.

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Speaker 2: So this was not just on the radar, but now

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Speaker 2: to federal authorities at multiple different levels, from his Ukraine

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Speaker 2: work to his gun possession. We know a little bit

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Speaker 2: from the gun charges. You know, the serial number on

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Speaker 2: the rifle that was found that he allegedly was trying

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Speaker 2: to use, that was filed off perhaps, you know, showing

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Speaker 2: that it is an illegal weapon that was purchased. But

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of sketchy questions that remain around Ralph.

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Speaker 2: How was he funding his lifestyle? Was funding his multiple

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Speaker 2: trips back and forth from Ukraine? So lots of weird

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Speaker 2: stuff that's currently happening.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's so noteworthy that there were multiple people

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Speaker 1: who interacted with this guy, and some of this was

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Speaker 1: in the public domain. We were talking about it yesterday

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Speaker 1: where they were warning they're saying, this guy does not

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Speaker 1: represent Ukraine, he is not recruiting foreign fighters like he's

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Speaker 1: basically a fraud and a con. Don't take him seriously.

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Speaker 1: And then the new information that we learned is that

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Speaker 1: going beyond that, it wasn't just hey, this guy is,

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Speaker 1: you know, a huckster. It was this man is dangerous.

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Speaker 1: The things he's saying are crazy, and you need to be,

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Speaker 1: like federal authorities, you need to be watching out for him.

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Speaker 1: So the more we learn about that, uh, the more

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Speaker 1: interesting that tale is going to be. You know, with

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Speaker 1: regard to the Secret Service response here, I feel a

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Speaker 1: little differently about the Secret Service response in this instance

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Speaker 1: versus Butler. It's very clear Secret Service just fell down

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Speaker 1: on the job in Butler and came within an inch,

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Speaker 1: you know, within half an inch of former President Trump

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Speaker 1: being murdered in front of a giant rally crowd on

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Speaker 1: national television. It was just by luck, fortune, fate, or

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Speaker 1: whatever that he happened to turn his head at that moment.

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Speaker 1: In this instance, you had a you know, a very

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Speaker 1: sharp eyed Secret Service agent who was scouting ahead and

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Speaker 1: was able to spot him, and you know, they were

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Speaker 1: able to fire off shots and then ultimately, you know,

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Speaker 1: down the road they got kind of lucky with their

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Speaker 1: ability to apprehend him before he could get any shots off.

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Speaker 4: Whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: I'm open to two explanations for how they came within,

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Speaker 1: you know, another such a close call on the president's

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Speaker 1: former president's life this time. One is that there was

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Speaker 1: another Secret Service failure, you know, when he's in the

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Speaker 1: woods for twelve hours, that there wasn't a sufficient job

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Speaker 1: done scouting the golf course ahead of Trump going out

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Speaker 1: and playing.

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Speaker 4: That's one possible explanation.

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Speaker 1: Another possible explanation kind of falls on Congress or perhaps

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Speaker 1: on the agency heads, that there have been insufficient resources

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Speaker 1: allocated to the Secret Service such that they're doing the

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Speaker 1: best job they can and did the best job they

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Speaker 1: could in the circumstances, but simply didn't have the tools

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Speaker 1: and the resources to be able to avoid such a

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Speaker 1: close call. But I'll tell you, you know, it's very

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Speaker 1: noteworthy to me. I'm not an expert. I'd love to

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Speaker 1: hear people who are an expert kind of way in

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Speaker 1: on this. But they really got lucky in that bystander

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Speaker 1: taking a picture of his license plate and their ability

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Speaker 1: to then you know, work with local law enforcement to

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Speaker 1: apprehend this guy down the road, because imagine a situation

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Speaker 1: where there's an ongoing man cunt for this individual or

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Speaker 1: where you know, potentially theoretically he is never found. I

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Speaker 1: think we were very close to that scenario unfolding if

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Speaker 1: not for the quick thinking of a near dot nearby,

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Speaker 1: you know, passerby.

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Speaker 2: You're right, I mean, look, would they have eventually found him,

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Speaker 2: most likely fingerprints on the weapon, you know, some of

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Speaker 2: the personal details and other things, maybe his phone rerecords

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Speaker 2: they could have used, but it might have taken a

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Speaker 2: long time.

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Speaker 3: And who knows. He's an unstable individual.

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Speaker 2: He literally wanted to kill the presidents and got close

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Speaker 2: to him, so possibly had I mean, they didn't charge

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Speaker 2: him with guns inside of the car, but again, you know,

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Speaker 2: when you have an unstable person like that who is

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Speaker 2: literally on the run, they could do anything. So we

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Speaker 2: certainly did get lucky. I agree with you on the

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Speaker 2: institutional level, you know, not faulting the individual agents who

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Speaker 2: were there on the ground, but it is clear resources wise,

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Speaker 2: it's just different. So again I can give my own

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Speaker 2: personal experience having had to cover some of these golf

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Speaker 2: things when Trump was president. I know for a fact

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Speaker 2: that the golf course was entirely shut down and patrolled

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Speaker 2: when they were president. In fact, from what I understand,

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Speaker 2: if he had had the same level of presidential detail

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Speaker 2: that was normal. Then the golf course would have been

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Speaker 2: secured in a different way and nobody would have been

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Speaker 2: allowed to camp out there for twelve hours. And the

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Speaker 2: only reason again that they even were able to were

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Speaker 2: able to see him was because they were scouting one

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Speaker 2: hole ahead whenever he was there, as opposed to shutting

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Speaker 2: the entire thing down. This gets to resources right now.

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Speaker 2: The Secret Service is telling us Trump now has the

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Speaker 2: highest level of possible protection. That includes he had a

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Speaker 2: phone call, I believe with President Biden yesterday where Biden

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Speaker 2: basically talked to him about.

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Speaker 3: The same thing.

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Speaker 2: But now a Secret Service, you know, seeing two attempted

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Speaker 2: assassinations in the span of just sixty days is terrible

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Speaker 2: look for them, and it is very scary too whenever

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Speaker 2: we have an active candidate for president of the United States. Also, though,

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Speaker 2: now we're getting back into the rhetoric wars, let's put

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Speaker 2: this up there on the screen. Trump returning to Twitter

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Speaker 2: at least for this one. He says the rhetoric lies,

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Speaker 2: as exemplified by the false statements made by Comrade Kamala

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Speaker 2: during the rigged and highly parts and ABC debate and

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Speaker 2: ridiculous lawsuits designed. I can't even read this, there's so

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Speaker 2: many comments, but I'll just get to this. It is

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Speaker 2: because because of the communist left rhetoric, the bullets are

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Speaker 2: flying and it will only get worse, allowing millions of

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Speaker 2: pieces from places unknown to invade and take over our countries.

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Speaker 2: And on part of wals stay blah blah blah, we

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Speaker 2: must love our nation. Come in legally, he turns it

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Speaker 2: into a migrant thing. But I have I said this

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Speaker 2: after last time, and I continue to maintain it. I'm

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Speaker 2: just going to stay in defense of we think reasonable

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Speaker 2: position that just because people have quote unquote heated rhetoric

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Speaker 2: does not mean that they are responsible. I think that

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Speaker 2: for what a deranged person like Ryan Routh does. I

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Speaker 2: don't think that applies in the case of people being

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Speaker 2: like we need to end and stop Donald Trump, or

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Speaker 2: even calling him a dictator or fascist. It's a free country,

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Speaker 2: we have free speech. I don't think that that's necessarily

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Speaker 2: inciting violence, and I don't think it's the same whenever

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Speaker 2: those same charges are leveled against you know, right wing politicians.

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Speaker 2: So this always annoys me, you know, this whole like

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Speaker 2: we need to tone down the rhetoric while they're literally

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Speaker 2: ramping up the rhetoric on their own side.

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Speaker 3: And I just think.

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Speaker 2: It's very foolish because guys like we like, we have

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Speaker 2: a general social contract. Most normal people understand whenever you say,

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Speaker 2: quote unquote we need to stop him, it doesn't entail

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Speaker 2: a literal assassination that applies to quote unquote comrade Kamala,

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Speaker 2: communist Kamala. The Democrats are having an invasion of our country.

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Speaker 3: That's the same thing.

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Speaker 2: So anyways, this has always annoyed me, I said after

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Speaker 2: the last attempt assassination, and I will continue to say

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Speaker 2: it here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and yeah, I don't think Republicans really want this

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Speaker 1: election to be contested on who has the more heated

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Speaker 1: or reasonable rhetoric, right, I mean, the last time around,

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Speaker 1: there was at least like five minutes where Trump was like, oh,

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Speaker 1: I'm going to be the unity candidate and we're it's

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Speaker 1: going to be a totally different Trump. And maybe about

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Speaker 1: twenty minutes into his RNC convention speech, that was out

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Speaker 1: the window and it was back to the same old,

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Speaker 1: same old. Like you know, Donald Trump did come up

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Speaker 1: with a fake electors scheme. He did give that speech

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Speaker 1: and tell people to come to DC, and that it

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Speaker 1: was going to be wild. He did watch as those

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Speaker 1: rioters breached the capitol and you know, assaulted police officers

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Speaker 1: and all of those things, and he just watched and

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Speaker 1: wouldn't say anything for hours and hours. So it's entirely reasonable, appropriate,

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Speaker 1: et cetera, to say, based on his past behavior, he

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Speaker 1: is a threat to democracy, and so to then you know,

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Speaker 1: turn around, you can't say that about him because it's inciting.

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Speaker 1: It's like, well, we're just you know, it's a very

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Speaker 1: reasonable even if you disagree, it's a very reasonable conclusion

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Speaker 1: and charge to levy at Donald Trump. And of course,

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Speaker 1: I mean his rhetoric, even within this one tweet where

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Speaker 1: he's saying that it's, you know, the democratic rhetoric is

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Speaker 1: too hot. He's then going on and painting an existential threat.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, it's you know, it's it's sort of ridiculous,

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Speaker 1: and especially when you dig into the specifics of these cases,

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Speaker 1: the first assassination attempt in particular, which you know, we

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Speaker 1: know more about at this point than we do the

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Speaker 1: second assassination attempt, and what the potential motivations are. Although

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Speaker 1: you know, I think it's fairly reason to assume it

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Speaker 1: had something to do with Ukraine, since this guy was

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Speaker 1: like obsessively into Ukraine. But the first one, this guy

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Speaker 1: didn't seem he was looking at, you know, where various

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Speaker 1: political figures of both parties were gonna be. He seemed

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Speaker 1: like he just wanted his moment of notoriety, that it

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Speaker 1: was all about just getting his name into the history

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Speaker 1: books and really had nothing to do with political ideology

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Speaker 1: as best as we can tell. I mean, still, even

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Speaker 1: after the reports that they've done and the information that

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Speaker 1: they've learned, they still haven't really they haven't asserted any

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Speaker 1: motive outside of what we could all glean from, you know,

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Speaker 1: just the fact that he's searching all kinds of different

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Speaker 1: high level political and cultural figures that he could go

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Speaker 1: out and potentially take a shot at. So in any case, yeah,

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Speaker 1: this discourse, obviously, I found it as ridiculous and sort

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Speaker 1: of silly as you do.

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Speaker 2: Right because, like, look on the Thomas Crooks thing, we

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Speaker 2: don't know a lot, but yeah, I mean, current evidence

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Speaker 2: points in that direction. And there's an important point there.

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Speaker 2: It's about the individual. It's not about quote unquote the

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Speaker 2: rhetoric of Democrats or Republicans. You know, there is individual

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Speaker 2: responsibility here. These people have agency, even if they may

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Speaker 2: be drained. It doesn't necessarily fall on what you know

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Speaker 2: somebody said earlier.

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Speaker 3: Now, should we have better rhetoric.

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Speaker 2: Maybe, although you know, I'm not really gonna I hate

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Speaker 2: tone policing just in general, especially whenever we try and

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Speaker 2: gate it around an election. No, elections are actually very

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Speaker 2: high stakes. We should argue sometimes they are existential and

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Speaker 2: the eye of the beholder. I think he's totally fine

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Speaker 2: to say so, no matter where you fall. Let's go

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Speaker 2: to the next part here, continuing with Ryan Routh. Ryan,

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Speaker 2: interesting guy appearing here in court on these federal gun charges.

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Speaker 2: Let's put this up there on the screen. He claims

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Speaker 2: he is indigent and he is now currently being represented

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Speaker 2: by a public defender, meaning he has no funds. I

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Speaker 2: again just find a lot of the funding behind him.

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Speaker 2: Very just mystifying. Because he is a current resident of Hawaii.

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Speaker 2: He clearly has enough money to like jet set across

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Speaker 2: the ocean back and forth from Ukraine to come here

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Speaker 2: to Washington. He was previously in North Carolina, allegedly was

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Speaker 2: running a business with his son. And you know, I

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Speaker 2: don't have any experience buying illegal weapons, but from what

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Speaker 2: I understand from reading, they generally cost like five times

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Speaker 2: retail costs, So several thousand dollars invested in the rifle

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Speaker 2: that he purchased. Where is all this stuff coming from?

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Speaker 2: Like maybe it was a credit card. I don't know,

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Speaker 2: but I'd be very interested to see that. Right now,

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Speaker 2: those gun charges are the only ones that have been

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Speaker 2: filed against Ralph. From what I understand, it would be

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Speaker 2: quite difficult to charge him with attempted murder or attempted assassination,

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Speaker 2: but it is possible, though the federal prosecutors will move

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Speaker 2: to do so. Staying with like who Ryan was, As

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Speaker 2: you just said, he was a fanatic. He genuinely was

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Speaker 2: a Ukraine like just a pro nuclear war in favor

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Speaker 2: of Ukraine. Wanted to make sure that America did everything possible,

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Speaker 2: sending patriot missol defense systems. There's multiple photos of him

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Speaker 2: at protests and others begging F sixteens, no fly zone,

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Speaker 2: all of these things over the last couple of years.

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Speaker 3: In fact, somebody recently flagged this.

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Speaker 2: He appears to have been in an Azov battalion propaganda

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Speaker 2: video from twenty twenty two. We can play some of

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Speaker 2: this so that people can see, let's just roll a

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Speaker 2: little bit. This Azov Battalion, of course, is the far

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Speaker 2: right literal neo Nazis who are attached to the Ukrainian military.

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Speaker 3: But there he was.

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Speaker 2: That's a picture of him.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I mean, there's a you know, probably a lot to

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Speaker 2: say there in terms of what it means for Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: But like I said, and I'll cut the Ukrainian slack

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Speaker 2: in this, Uh, the International Legion has completely denounced him.

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Speaker 2: All these foreign fighters who were there, they're like, we

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Speaker 2: have nothing connected to this guy. In fact, there are

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Speaker 2: multiple instances of us calling him a grifter and a liar.

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Speaker 3: We saw this morning.

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Speaker 2: Like I said, there were people who were in Ukraine

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Speaker 2: coming back to the United States telling federal authorities you

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Speaker 2: got to watch out.

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Speaker 3: For this guy.

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Speaker 2: He is crazy and flagging and trying to get US

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Speaker 2: authorities to do something about it. It does appear that

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Speaker 2: while he was in Kiev, he did have some contacts

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Speaker 2: and was able to funnel some foreign fighters into the

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Speaker 2: Ukrainian military. At least one person has said that, so

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Speaker 2: his ties, you know, to the Ukrainian state, to the

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Speaker 2: International Legion, foreign fighters. It's not as cut and dry

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Speaker 2: as some people may want to say, I think the

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Speaker 2: obvious explanation is just crazy, but that doesn't mean that

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Speaker 2: he also didn't have some contact with them. But he

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Speaker 2: certainly was not part and parcel a foreign fighter or

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Speaker 2: something like that in Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: As best we can tell, and his social media posts

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Speaker 1: before his Twitter account was taken down, there were a

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Speaker 1: bunch of them that were like, I will fight and

439
00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:58,800
Speaker 1: die for Ukraine. I want to go to Ukraine to

440
00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,200
Speaker 1: fight and die. And the best syndications are that he

441
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:03,120
Speaker 1: tried to do that and they rejected him.

442
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:05,239
Speaker 4: They were like, no, we don't want to.

443
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:08,119
Speaker 1: And then you had a bunch of people who interacted

444
00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 1: with him throwing up these warning signals. So yeah, he

445
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:15,199
Speaker 1: was whatever vibes he was given off, whatever things he

446
00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:17,639
Speaker 1: was saying. In the context of the Ukrainian conflict, there

447
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 1: were plenty of people involved who are extraordinarily pro Ukraine

448
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:23,080
Speaker 1: who were like, absolutely not. And by the way, let

449
00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:26,119
Speaker 1: me alert the federal authorities because this dude is an

450
00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:29,560
Speaker 1: absolute maniac. I'm not sure if you mentioned this or not,

451
00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 1: but I just wanted to make sure to get in

452
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:34,600
Speaker 1: the detail with regards to the gun charges and the

453
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 1: legal angle of this is interesting because I was thinking

454
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:40,719
Speaker 1: about that. He didn't get any shots off. It was

455
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:44,159
Speaker 1: the Secret Service firing at him, So that's probably what

456
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 1: makes it more difficult to charge him with attempted assassination.

457
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 1: Now we can all read the tea leaves of when

458
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 1: you're hiding in the woods at the former president's golf

459
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 1: course for twelve hours with a sniper rifle and scope

460
00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 1: and a O pro camera to record it all, we

461
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:07,239
Speaker 1: can probably all guess what intentions you ultimately had. But

462
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:09,880
Speaker 1: I would assume that that's the reason why it would

463
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:14,720
Speaker 1: be difficult to prove those more egregious charges versus the

464
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 1: gun charges. And part of what we learned yesterday as

465
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:21,639
Speaker 1: well is that the serial number on his rifle was

466
00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 1: at least partially scratched out. So that is why we

467
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:28,560
Speaker 1: don't have details. You know, usually we get pretty quickly

468
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:30,440
Speaker 1: the details of like, oh, this is where the gun

469
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 1: came from. He bought it legally, he bought it illegally,

470
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:35,600
Speaker 1: It was somebody else's. It's still over stolen, as in

471
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 1: the case of the Georgia school shooting. His dad bought

472
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 1: it for him for Christmas or whatever. We don't have

473
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:43,440
Speaker 1: those details yet because of the serial number being scratched

474
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,600
Speaker 1: out and making it much more difficult to track the

475
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:47,200
Speaker 1: origin of this particular weapon.

476
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right.

477
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 2: Like I said, though he was a convicted felon by

478
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 2: many you know, reasonable standards, should not have had a

479
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:57,879
Speaker 2: fire arm. I'm talking about legally, and FBI literally investigated it.

480
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 2: That's part of what I find missedifying. And it just

481
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,080
Speaker 2: always comes back. It's like known to FBI. It's almost

482
00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:06,240
Speaker 2: a meme at this point, known to federal authorities. Twenty nineteen,

483
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 2: Tipster calls the FBI says, hey, this guy's a convicted felon.

484
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:12,360
Speaker 2: Remember in his past two thousand and two, barricaded himself

485
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 2: inside of an office with a fully automatic weapon. So

486
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:19,920
Speaker 2: that's it, You're done. FBI is called by Tipster Honolulu.

487
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:24,360
Speaker 2: FBI office investigates and drops the case, closes it. I mean,

488
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 2: that's pretty egregious in my opinion, on top of all

489
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:33,119
Speaker 2: of the investigations, that all of the flags done specifically

490
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:37,639
Speaker 2: by people returning from Ukraine begging the FBI and federal

491
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 2: authorities are like, you need to keep an eye on

492
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:42,680
Speaker 2: this guy. There is something wrong with him. Let's go

493
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:44,919
Speaker 2: ahead and put the last one up there. And that's

494
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 2: just what we referenced earlier, Secret Service under scrutiny here

495
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:51,639
Speaker 2: after this potential a second attempt on Donald Trump's life,

496
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 2: Congress and others are now calling for investigations. But Congress,

497
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 2: by all accounts, is also getting very fed up. I

498
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:02,639
Speaker 2: just saw a statement from or a senator yesterday that

499
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 2: said that I think it was Richard Blumenthal, so Democrat

500
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 2: from Connecticut, saying that the Homeland Security Department has been

501
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:12,560
Speaker 2: derelict in its duty in sharing information with Congress. And

502
00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 2: I mean all of the current indications, not only in

503
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 2: terms of these attempted assassinations from resources, but also at

504
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 2: the institutional level, point to an absolute cluster inside of

505
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:25,719
Speaker 2: this organization.

506
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 3: Right now.

507
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 2: We had those leaked you know, text messages and others

508
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:32,640
Speaker 2: that we had flagged earlier. But you know, there's clearly

509
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:35,440
Speaker 2: there is something deeply rotten inside of the Secret Service,

510
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 2: and that's that is existentially dangerous to our country because

511
00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 2: it's not just Donald Trump. It could be Kamala Harris,

512
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 2: could be Joe Biden, it could be any of these

513
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:48,439
Speaker 2: figs or the members of the family, people in the

514
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 2: executive branch, people like Jake Sullivan or others. There are

515
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 2: all kinds of sketchy and weird people. As we learn

516
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:58,480
Speaker 2: from Ryan Ralph and mister Crooks who tried to assassinate

517
00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:02,399
Speaker 2: Donald Trump earlier. These people are swarming Washington and just

518
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 2: orbiting the political system, waiting for an opportunity. So they

519
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 2: need to be vigilant at all times. And it genuinely

520
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 2: is dangerous to see stuff like this.

521
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 1: I mean, it's a horrible landscape to acknowledge, But we've

522
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 1: got a country that is kind of a tinder box

523
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 1: where the politics, do you know, tend towards the sense

524
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 1: of existential stakes, where there's just the numbers, a massive

525
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:30,679
Speaker 1: amount of guns. So you know, whatever they're doing in

526
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 1: terms of Secret Service protection for all of their protectees,

527
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 1: they need to up the ante. And I said this yesterday,

528
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 1: I fear that this is kind of a terrifying new

529
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:46,679
Speaker 1: normal because once one person demonstrates what's possible, then a

530
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,440
Speaker 1: lot of other lunatics start to get ideas in their

531
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:54,359
Speaker 1: head as well. And with regard to the specifics of

532
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 1: this instance and the fact that you know, still even

533
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 1: after the first assassination attempt, president, former President Trump was

534
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 1: not getting the level of protection that the current president gets.

535
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:08,440
Speaker 4: It almost seems.

536
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 1: To me like a bureaucratic box checking issue where it's like, well,

537
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 1: here's our standard for you know, if you're this person,

538
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:18,879
Speaker 1: you get that level of protection.

539
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:20,680
Speaker 4: If you're that person, you get this level.

540
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:25,160
Speaker 1: Here's our protocols, here's what we do, rather than flexibly

541
00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 1: thinking about, wow, the risk landscape has just dramatically increased

542
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 1: for this particular individual protect perhaps for all protectees overall.

543
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:40,439
Speaker 1: So we need to go beyond what would be what

544
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:43,480
Speaker 1: we've typically done in the past for a former president

545
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:46,640
Speaker 1: or for a you know, current candidate. We actually need

546
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:49,399
Speaker 1: to do as much as we possibly can now. Again,

547
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:53,679
Speaker 1: Secret Service doesn't have unlimited funds. One of the issues

548
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:56,600
Speaker 1: that Ken Klippenstein, who has done fantastic reporting on this,

549
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 1: talks about a lot, is that they've been stretched in

550
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 1: so many different directions and pulled in so many different

551
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 1: directions into areas that you would never think that the

552
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:10,199
Speaker 1: Secret Service was involved with whatsoever and so.

553
00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 4: And that's not all their fault.

554
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:14,440
Speaker 1: That also could be you know, the agency had certainly,

555
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 1: but also could be things that Congress has mandated. There

556
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 1: needs to be an executive branch and a legislative branch

557
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:25,200
Speaker 1: effort to refocus this agency on the most critical core

558
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 1: part of their mission, and to acknowledge that the risk

559
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 1: is dramatically elevated, certainly for former President Trump, but I

560
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 1: would say probably for all of the protectees that you

561
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:40,840
Speaker 1: know are under their care. So we wanted to make

562
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 1: sure to get to this. Kamala Harrison did sit for

563
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:47,440
Speaker 1: another solo interview with results that I would say are

564
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:50,320
Speaker 1: indicative of perhaps why she doesn't say for that many

565
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 1: of these interviews. So let me just give you a

566
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:56,240
Speaker 1: little bit of what went down here. So this video

567
00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 1: is going to start off with her response to an

568
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 1: answer about how specifically she would go about lowering prices.

569
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 4: Let's take a lisson.

570
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 5: I grew up a middle class kid. My mother raised

571
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 5: my sister and me. She worked very hard. She was

572
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 5: able to finally save up enough money to buy our

573
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 5: first house when I was a teenager.

574
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 2: I grew up in a.

575
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 5: Community of hardworking people, you know, construction workers and nurses

576
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 5: and teachers. And I try to explain to some people

577
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 5: who may not have had the same experience. You know,

578
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 5: if a lot of people will relate to this, you know,

579
00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:33,960
Speaker 5: I grew up in a neighborhood of folks who were

580
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 5: very proud of their lawn, you know. And I was

581
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 5: raised to believe and to know that all people deserve

582
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 5: dignity and that we as Americans have a beautiful character

583
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 5: to build in. My goal is three million new homes

584
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:59,480
Speaker 5: by the end of my first term. In addition to

585
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:02,040
Speaker 5: help people who just want to get their foot in

586
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 5: the door literally and so giving first time home buyers

587
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 5: a twenty five thousand dollars down payment assistance. A new

588
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 5: approach is to expand the child tax credit to six

589
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 5: thousand dollars for young families for the first year of

590
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 5: their child's life. And people want a leader who has

591
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 5: common sense and tries to find common ground. I'm supported

592
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 5: by over two hundred Republicans who worked for both Presidents Bush,

593
00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 5: John McCain, met Romney.

594
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 1: So she gets around to talking about some of her

595
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 1: policy plans, but sacer, I don't know why this is

596
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 1: hard like, so she gets asked, Okay, what are you

597
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 1: gonna do?

598
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:44,000
Speaker 3: Right?

599
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 1: I come from a middle class background, and people loved

600
00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 1: their lawns, and don't we have great values. It's like

601
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:54,640
Speaker 1: you have good policy proposals that you put out that.

602
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 4: Are really really popular.

603
00:30:56,480 --> 00:31:00,120
Speaker 1: I don't know why there isn't in her playbook, in

604
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 1: her list of talking points right out of the gate,

605
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:05,800
Speaker 1: I'm going to crack down on price gouging. I'm going

606
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 1: to crack down on you know, the prescription drug prices.

607
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 1: I'm going to bring them down. And then you know,

608
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:13,240
Speaker 1: the housing stuff is really good, the child tax credit,

609
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 1: it's really good.

610
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 4: I don't know why there isn't. Just like a dut

611
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:17,520
Speaker 4: dout dut.

612
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 1: And then if you want to zoom out and do

613
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:21,560
Speaker 1: your let me tell you about my values and where

614
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 1: I come from and why these are the things that

615
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:26,480
Speaker 1: I believe in and committed to. That's fine, But you know,

616
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 1: I'm not trying to nitpick here. But I do think

617
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 1: this is the one piece that is really missing for

618
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 1: a lot of voters, even a lot of voters who

619
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 1: watched the debate and were like, she did way better

620
00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 1: than Trump, and I cannot stand Trump, and she made

621
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 1: him look like a fool, and he made himself look

622
00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 1: like a fool.

623
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 4: But I really still want to.

624
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 1: Get that core of like who are you and what

625
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 1: specifically are you committed to doing on day one.

626
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:51,600
Speaker 4: For some reason, this is the most difficult question for her.

627
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is, well, I mean I think there's a

628
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 2: when you say why, I think the answer is is

629
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:57,640
Speaker 2: that she doesn't believe it. These are things or she

630
00:31:57,640 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 2: doesn't believe anything, And that's actually the number one knock

631
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 2: against her. She's so used to having to lean into

632
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 2: her identity and others that it appears to be the

633
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 2: default answer. Keep in mind, this is only a ten

634
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 2: minute interview and we gave you, literally, I guess, to

635
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 2: the highlights. But the point that you're making is that

636
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 2: if you calibrate to what And this is where I

637
00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 2: always say with Americans, like, look, you could say a

638
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 2: lot about our country, but people genuinely into it and

639
00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 2: cut to the truth very quickly in a way that

640
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 2: a lot of pundits are not able to. They are like, listen,

641
00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:30,840
Speaker 2: I think you are better than Trump character wise. I

642
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 2: probably trust you a little bit more on a few

643
00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:35,479
Speaker 2: different things. But what are you actually going to do?

644
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 2: That was the number one question amongst all of those

645
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 2: swing voters. I do not know what she stands for?

646
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:43,479
Speaker 2: And this is a Hillary esque mistake. Hillary made her

647
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 2: campaign all about her and also being about not Donald Trump.

648
00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:50,959
Speaker 2: Where here with Kamala she's personalizing her story. Again, Fine,

649
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:53,479
Speaker 2: if you're maybe giving a campaign speech or something.

650
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 3: But this is a direct question about prices.

651
00:32:56,760 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 2: I do think again that the major problem is like

652
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 2: she doesn't believe things, or she has a the copy

653
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 2: and paste from her campaign website from the Joe Biden

654
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 2: campaign promises it does tell you something. She's got the

655
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 2: Biden people on her staff. Maybe she does believe it,

656
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:19,000
Speaker 2: if you were to say generally, but the deep specifics,

657
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:22,160
Speaker 2: the preparation, this is exactly why she doesn't do a

658
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 2: lot of these So, I mean not I don't find

659
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 2: it mystifying in that this is kind of how she's

660
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 2: always been. It also is concerning just from a general

661
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 2: like candidate level, where we know that you can deliver

662
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 2: a decent performance if you want, like at the debate.

663
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 2: So do you just not think or prepare for these things?

664
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 2: And if you do, is this really the best that

665
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 2: you can come up with? This was very old school

666
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:50,920
Speaker 2: behavior from her. I thought for her it really is

667
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:53,960
Speaker 2: all about preparation. When she really takes something serious locks in,

668
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 2: she can be fantastic. I mean, she was fantastic in

669
00:33:56,360 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 2: that debate. She I have watched it now two times

670
00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 2: and it is amazing. She does exactly what she wants

671
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:08,960
Speaker 2: to do in that debate, in every single answer, it

672
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:12,359
Speaker 2: was masterful in a way. But when she doesn't lock

673
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:14,719
Speaker 2: in and preparees much, then you get, you know, a

674
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 2: very sort of middling and stumbling performance like this. And

675
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:20,359
Speaker 2: you know, to go back to this piece because I've

676
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 2: been thinking about this, because you look at Trump, like

677
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:24,960
Speaker 2: his answer on healthcare in the debate was I have

678
00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 2: concepts of a plan.

679
00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 4: His answer when he.

680
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:31,800
Speaker 1: Got asked about childcare was utterly incomprehensible and somehow involved

681
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 1: like Avantee and Marco Rubio and tariffs, and was like

682
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 1: what are you talking about? But people have a sense

683
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 1: of what makes Trump tick, like the things that he

684
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:50,160
Speaker 1: actually has a consistent passion for, like immigration is one

685
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:53,560
Speaker 1: of them. Like you may not know the specifics of

686
00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:56,680
Speaker 1: what he actually will do on immigration, you know, is

687
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:58,879
Speaker 1: he actually going to do the mass deportation He didn't

688
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:00,759
Speaker 1: last time around, but he did some other stuff that

689
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:04,000
Speaker 1: I found pretty terrible, But you know that is core

690
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:06,919
Speaker 1: to him, without even getting the white paper and really

691
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:09,200
Speaker 1: knowing all the details of how it's gonna work. And

692
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 1: I think Tariff's yeah, you could also put into that

693
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:12,920
Speaker 1: bucket as well. You know, you look at like a

694
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:17,160
Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders, like you know what that man is all about.

695
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:18,920
Speaker 1: You know what he's thinking about when he gets up,

696
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 1: you know what he's thinking about when he goes to bed. So,

697
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 1: even to go back to your Hillary Clinton comparison, like

698
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 1: Hillary had all kinds of white papers, and she wouldn't

699
00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:33,239
Speaker 1: have flubbed that answer like Okay, what are you going

700
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:35,400
Speaker 1: to do to bring down costs? She would have wrapped

701
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:38,120
Speaker 1: off or like here's my plan and here's my white paper,

702
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 1: blah blah blah. But again on that like you know,

703
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:45,080
Speaker 1: examination of the soul, people would be like, yeah, but

704
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 1: I don't know what really drives her outside of her

705
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:52,760
Speaker 1: own ambition. And so Kamala Harris has a similar issue,

706
00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 1: not just because she's changed her position. Okay, Drums changed

707
00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:58,960
Speaker 1: his positions a lot. You're allowed to change your position,

708
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 1: by the way, if you've got new information, et cetera.

709
00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 1: But when you could when you add that together with

710
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:07,880
Speaker 1: this sense of like I don't know what the thing

711
00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:11,319
Speaker 1: is for you, like I don't know what is what

712
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:13,880
Speaker 1: is driving you in the political realm outside of your

713
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:16,680
Speaker 1: own desire to be in this office. I think that's

714
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 1: where where it continues to be the biggest question mark

715
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:23,840
Speaker 1: for her honestly at this point, and you know, I

716
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:26,759
Speaker 1: don't know that it's really fixable. The only advice I

717
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:29,000
Speaker 1: could give to them is just like pick something with

718
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 1: childcare housing, Like just pick something and just relentlessly talk

719
00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:35,200
Speaker 1: about it. Just fake it like that's your passion, you know,

720
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 1: and no one's buying this. Small business is my passion.

721
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 4: By the way, it's not small business. It's clearly not

722
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:41,240
Speaker 4: your passion.

723
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:44,400
Speaker 1: But yeah, pick something, lean into it, talk about it

724
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:47,200
Speaker 1: a lot, feign some passion. That's probably the best she

725
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:50,799
Speaker 1: could do, because that's the piece that's really missing. And

726
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:53,520
Speaker 1: then it becomes blatantly obvious in a question like this

727
00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 1: or the ones she got from Dana Bash what's your

728
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:59,240
Speaker 1: day one agenda that she similarly kind of fumbled around

729
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:03,200
Speaker 1: with or eventually yes landing on her policy proposals, but

730
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:07,279
Speaker 1: didn't have that burning like this is the number one

731
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:09,839
Speaker 1: goal of the next administration, at least not that came

732
00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:10,840
Speaker 1: across in that interview.

733
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 2: I think that's a very as dude answer. People in

734
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:15,879
Speaker 2: general are pretty good at intuiting what makes people tick.

735
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:18,520
Speaker 2: I guarantee people who watch the show knows what the

736
00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:20,880
Speaker 2: two of us makes us tick. And what there's a

737
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:24,680
Speaker 2: lot of passion in But that's important. People can intuit

738
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 2: something in the way that you can with anybody, your boss,

739
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:30,239
Speaker 2: or anybody who you're looking at or you're watching. So

740
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 2: what we see here with Kamala is that tick answer.

741
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 2: When you're not immediately burning to do something, then it

742
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 2: does tell us that it's almost kicks in, like oh,

743
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:43,440
Speaker 2: I should probably now mention my three million new homes.

744
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:45,799
Speaker 2: But she didn't actually answer that question about prices. She

745
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:49,160
Speaker 2: didn't really say the word inflation. She didn't acknowledge necessarily

746
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 2: pain that people are in or try to paint a

747
00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:52,320
Speaker 2: bigger picture.

748
00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:53,520
Speaker 3: It started with herself.

749
00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:56,320
Speaker 2: You got basically you're trying to dance around the issue,

750
00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:58,359
Speaker 2: but you're not actually zeroing in.

751
00:37:58,480 --> 00:37:59,920
Speaker 3: And voters understand that.

752
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:02,799
Speaker 2: So if she loses, a big part of this will

753
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:05,719
Speaker 2: be why because people felt, at the end of the day,

754
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:08,839
Speaker 2: I didn't truly understand what she was going to do

755
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:12,799
Speaker 2: for me. Trump also really does benefit from the fact

756
00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:14,920
Speaker 2: that he was president and people have a lot of

757
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:18,000
Speaker 2: rose colored glasses about what those four years were, Like

758
00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:20,759
Speaker 2: I mean rose colored. It almost implies that they're incorrect.

759
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 2: They remember fondly what prices, gas and all other stuff

760
00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:27,839
Speaker 2: looked like under the Trump administration, and they feel there's

761
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 2: been a lot of chaos and price inflation since then.

762
00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:33,920
Speaker 3: That is just empirical, it's reality.

763
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:36,759
Speaker 2: Kamalin needs actually do a good job to try and

764
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:40,160
Speaker 2: actually diminish those colored glasses and say no, remember the chaos,

765
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:42,840
Speaker 2: and he's actually bringing that. He only cares about himself,

766
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:45,040
Speaker 2: often the best hit that she had on him during

767
00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 2: the debate. So in general, this is why she won't

768
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:50,560
Speaker 2: do the interviews. But I mean, well, actually, you know,

769
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 2: I apologize. She will do one more interview. Whether it's

770
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:54,320
Speaker 2: an actual interview, we'll see.

771
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:57,240
Speaker 4: Yeah. So this is and this is kind of funny.

772
00:38:57,280 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 1: So she's doing this live event with Oprah Winfrey. We

773
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 1: can put this up on the screen. I mean, it's

774
00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 1: a campaign function, it's not it's not a real interview.

775
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:09,800
Speaker 1: But she's doing what's described as a live stream rally

776
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:13,480
Speaker 1: with Oprah Winfrey, who of course endorsed Kamala and spoke

777
00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 1: at the DNC.

778
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:16,760
Speaker 4: She gets her speech.

779
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 1: In my opinion, it was like very cliched, but because

780
00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:21,080
Speaker 1: she's Oprah, she like made it work. You know, she

781
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 1: just has so much charisma that you're like, I want

782
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 1: to hear what you are saying, even when it's just

783
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:26,680
Speaker 1: a bunch of problem political cliches.

784
00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:28,799
Speaker 4: But anyway, you know.

785
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 1: I think the strategy basically makes sense, and she's done

786
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:37,799
Speaker 1: enough now to lower the temperature on the like when

787
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:39,040
Speaker 1: are you going to sit for an interview? When are

788
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 1: you going to sit for an interview when you know

789
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 1: you need to sit for an interview. She's done a

790
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:44,080
Speaker 1: couple like local news, like the one we just showed

791
00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:47,399
Speaker 1: you that was a Philadelphia local news journalist. I think

792
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 1: she did a radio interview like. She's done a few

793
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:51,239
Speaker 1: things enough for them to be able to point to

794
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:55,200
Speaker 1: to be like, see, she's accessible and it's not her wheelhouse.

795
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:58,719
Speaker 1: She does much better in a rally situation with the

796
00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 1: prompt red to go. Trump is giving her a tremendous

797
00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:04,360
Speaker 1: gift if he sticks by his I don't want a

798
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:07,760
Speaker 1: debate again, although you know, given how well she performed

799
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 1: in the first one, I don't think she should necessarily

800
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:13,319
Speaker 1: be afraid of a second debate either, although I think

801
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 1: it would be difficult for her to match her performance

802
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:17,640
Speaker 1: there and for Trump to match the low of his

803
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 1: performance there as well.

804
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:21,440
Speaker 4: But you know, I think.

805
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:25,359
Speaker 1: They basically are correct that this is probably the right

806
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:28,279
Speaker 1: strategy given the candidate that they have.

807
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think that's correct.

808
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:32,600
Speaker 2: I think at the end of the day, we now

809
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:35,960
Speaker 2: know who she is and Americans at this point are

810
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 2: they're going to have to make their peace with it

811
00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:38,160
Speaker 2: or not.

812
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:39,840
Speaker 3: And that's risky. That's really what it is.

813
00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:39,960
Speaker 6: Is.

814
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:42,840
Speaker 2: Poll after Pole tells us that this is a risky strategy,

815
00:40:43,120 --> 00:40:45,120
Speaker 2: that this is difficult. A lot of the ball is

816
00:40:45,120 --> 00:40:47,839
Speaker 2: actually in Trump's court to see how he is going

817
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:49,880
Speaker 2: to do this. Is he going to seize the narrative

818
00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:52,239
Speaker 2: and is he going going to try and put it

819
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:55,440
Speaker 2: in more advantageous directions for him? In that contrast and

820
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:58,000
Speaker 2: the way that he takes press questions or even in

821
00:40:58,080 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 2: terms of the issues that are highlight here or not.

822
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 2: The less that it is about him personally, and the

823
00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:05,480
Speaker 2: more that it's going to be about issues than that

824
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:08,680
Speaker 2: contrast on Kamala will be difficult because it will remind

825
00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:12,400
Speaker 2: people that she doesn't necessarily stand for anything. But you know,

826
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:15,719
Speaker 2: it really comes back to how Kamala too, is going

827
00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:18,719
Speaker 2: to is she just going to continue this Oprah Winfrey

828
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 2: kind of vibes strategy. Look, some of the polls are

829
00:41:22,160 --> 00:41:23,839
Speaker 2: in her favor. There's been a lot of decent ones

830
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 2: that have come out for her in the last couple

831
00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:28,760
Speaker 2: of days, Pennsylvania actually showing her up by a couple

832
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 2: of points. So it is highly possible that this is

833
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:34,600
Speaker 2: exactly what is that this is exactly the way that

834
00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:37,919
Speaker 2: she does win the election, and that also demonstrates both

835
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:41,399
Speaker 2: her strengths and weaknesses as a candidate, and very very

836
00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:44,240
Speaker 2: much so. What I think at previous more than anything,

837
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:46,759
Speaker 2: is she is going to struggle in the presidency. You

838
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:50,000
Speaker 2: can not get away with this when you are president.

839
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 2: Just at a baseline, even if you try to keep

840
00:41:52,560 --> 00:41:55,120
Speaker 2: the press away, look at Biden, they did their best.

841
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:59,680
Speaker 2: You will be revealed. The job genuinely requires it. Even

842
00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:01,759
Speaker 2: if you're trying not to do a press conference. One day,

843
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:04,040
Speaker 2: you're going to be sitting with five European leaders and

844
00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:06,080
Speaker 2: you're going to have a dementia incident.

845
00:42:05,719 --> 00:42:08,239
Speaker 3: And wander off to go look at a parachute, and.

846
00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:10,440
Speaker 2: America is gonna be like, what the hell is going

847
00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:13,799
Speaker 2: off over here? So buckle up because that is not

848
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:15,359
Speaker 2: going to be good for you if you win the job.

849
00:42:18,840 --> 00:42:20,440
Speaker 4: So Trump obviously did himself.

850
00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 1: He meant the big opportunity in the debate to make

851
00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 1: this race a you know, a contract or even a

852
00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:31,879
Speaker 1: referendum on Kamala Harris and Joe Biden versus a referendum

853
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:34,760
Speaker 1: on the most negative parts of himself. Kamala Harris wants

854
00:42:34,800 --> 00:42:37,000
Speaker 1: to use the debate to shift the focus to him

855
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 1: into the parts of his personality that people find to

856
00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:43,759
Speaker 1: be the most odious, and she succeeded overwhelmingly. You know,

857
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:45,759
Speaker 1: at this point, it's undeniable when you look at the

858
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:48,080
Speaker 1: polling ship post debate, when you look at the number

859
00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:50,560
Speaker 1: of people who said they thought she won the debate,

860
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:53,239
Speaker 1: including a significant chunk of Republicans, when you look at

861
00:42:53,239 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 1: her favorability ratings going up and Trump's going down post debate,

862
00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 1: when you look at, you know, how people felt they

863
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:01,719
Speaker 1: answered questions on the very issues. So it's you know,

864
00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 1: the verdict is fairly clear in terms of how that

865
00:43:05,160 --> 00:43:08,360
Speaker 1: debate went for Donald Trump. And one of the people

866
00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:12,640
Speaker 1: who noted this was Joe Rogan who made some interesting

867
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:14,759
Speaker 1: comments about how he thought this debate went.

868
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:15,600
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen.

869
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:16,840
Speaker 7: Did you watch the debate?

870
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:20,040
Speaker 6: Brod forgot?

871
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:22,319
Speaker 7: Let me tell you before I say anything, I just

872
00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:27,080
Speaker 7: want to say, whoever's helping her, whoever's coaching her, whoever's

873
00:43:27,160 --> 00:43:30,560
Speaker 7: the puppet master run the strings. Yeah, you had a

874
00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:34,960
Speaker 7: fucking amazing job. Say job, they did an amazing job.

875
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:38,240
Speaker 7: From the moment Biden drops out, forcing Biden to drop

876
00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:42,080
Speaker 7: out right, whatever they're doing, whoever's writing those speeches, getting

877
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:46,239
Speaker 7: her deliverum, coaching her, she's nailing it. She nailed that

878
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:46,920
Speaker 7: one speech.

879
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:51,040
Speaker 4: She's like, say it to my family, Yeah, she nailed it.

880
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:54,759
Speaker 7: And then last night to me when I was like,

881
00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:57,200
Speaker 7: oh my god, this is jiu jitsu, where she was like,

882
00:43:57,360 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 7: if you go to his rallies, his crowds are boring,

883
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:04,080
Speaker 7: attired crowds are the best crowds. I have the number

884
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:04,600
Speaker 7: one crowd.

885
00:44:04,640 --> 00:44:06,920
Speaker 6: He couldn't help himself.

886
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:07,640
Speaker 8: And she got him.

887
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:11,720
Speaker 1: So, I mean, it's so obvious what happened.

888
00:44:11,800 --> 00:44:15,000
Speaker 4: And they really like even more than.

889
00:44:15,080 --> 00:44:19,400
Speaker 1: The content preparation, it was as somebody else said this

890
00:44:19,560 --> 00:44:22,440
Speaker 1: that I'm borrowing from, but it was like a psychological

891
00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:26,439
Speaker 1: preparation for exactly what was going to get him where

892
00:44:26,440 --> 00:44:27,560
Speaker 1: he couldn't resist.

893
00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:29,520
Speaker 4: And it truly is an amazing moment.

894
00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:32,960
Speaker 1: When she gets asked this difficult question about immigration, she

895
00:44:33,040 --> 00:44:35,960
Speaker 1: does a little you know, blah, blah blah. I prosecuted

896
00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:39,240
Speaker 1: transnational gangs, et cetera, et cetera. But let's talk about

897
00:44:39,280 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 1: his rallies. The moderator, David Muir comes back to him

898
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:45,800
Speaker 1: and actually asked him a follow up question on immigration,

899
00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:46,640
Speaker 1: and he says.

900
00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:48,479
Speaker 4: I'll get to that, but I got to talk about

901
00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 4: the rallies.

902
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:53,920
Speaker 1: And from there on out, she had him dancing to

903
00:44:54,080 --> 00:44:59,000
Speaker 1: whatever beat she wanted him to dance to. And I've

904
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:01,680
Speaker 1: never seen anything like it, to be honest with you,

905
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:05,200
Speaker 1: where it was so clear what her strategy was and

906
00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:09,160
Speaker 1: it was executed well, but where he just could not

907
00:45:10,040 --> 00:45:13,920
Speaker 1: resist taking the bait and doing exactly what she wanted

908
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:17,160
Speaker 1: him to do. In every instance, it was unbelievable to

909
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:17,880
Speaker 1: watch it unfold.

910
00:45:18,280 --> 00:45:21,359
Speaker 2: The Rogan check in is an important one because you know, look,

911
00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:25,200
Speaker 2: Joe is no lover of Kamala. He also is generally

912
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:28,640
Speaker 2: like more apolitical and is just an observer. Tom Segura

913
00:45:28,719 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 2: as well, who these people are comedians. So you know,

914
00:45:31,719 --> 00:45:34,640
Speaker 2: in a sense, I like to hear the same thing

915
00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 2: where you and I are political nerds.

916
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:37,800
Speaker 3: Like you said you watched it twice.

917
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:41,080
Speaker 2: I mean we're looking at every detail and trying to

918
00:45:41,120 --> 00:45:44,400
Speaker 2: parse or trying to find something, but it is validating

919
00:45:44,440 --> 00:45:46,879
Speaker 2: in the sense that the casual observer is like, man,

920
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:49,640
Speaker 2: she really got him on that. And the rally size,

921
00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:52,560
Speaker 2: I mean, we shouldn't forget that became a meme in

922
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:55,279
Speaker 2: this country. If we remember the whole Sean Spicer thing,

923
00:45:55,719 --> 00:45:59,000
Speaker 2: Melissa McCarthy, it was the first time SNL was relevant

924
00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:03,200
Speaker 2: in like twenty years. People were actually sharing the skit,

925
00:46:03,600 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 2: the podium stuff. I mean, it was a national story

926
00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:10,440
Speaker 2: and people were laughing. I remember too, traveling around in

927
00:46:10,520 --> 00:46:14,680
Speaker 2: November twenty seventeen and everyone was joking about the rally

928
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:17,239
Speaker 2: stuff and with Sean Spice or who's a household name,

929
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:20,040
Speaker 2: And I started to think about that and I was like, wow,

930
00:46:20,280 --> 00:46:23,640
Speaker 2: you know, you forget too that these memetic incidents become

931
00:46:23,880 --> 00:46:27,080
Speaker 2: imprinted in a way that the normal person can laugh.

932
00:46:27,120 --> 00:46:28,400
Speaker 3: Because what does it illustrate.

933
00:46:28,440 --> 00:46:32,560
Speaker 2: It illustrates Trump's weakest link, which is his own narcissism

934
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:36,239
Speaker 2: in the center of self. And worse is it amplifies

935
00:46:36,520 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 2: the consistent democratic message of he doesn't care about you,

936
00:46:39,719 --> 00:46:42,480
Speaker 2: he only cares about himself. So he really is at

937
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:45,360
Speaker 2: his best when he's fired up about immigration or tariffs,

938
00:46:45,360 --> 00:46:48,080
Speaker 2: because at least there it's about something that has to

939
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:52,040
Speaker 2: do with US policy, or about opposition to US elites

940
00:46:52,080 --> 00:46:52,880
Speaker 2: with rally size.

941
00:46:52,920 --> 00:46:56,520
Speaker 3: There's no pretending it's literally just about you. I mean,

942
00:46:56,680 --> 00:46:57,680
Speaker 3: that's the problem.

943
00:46:58,160 --> 00:47:00,799
Speaker 1: Well, he's both at his best and worse apparently when

944
00:47:00,840 --> 00:47:03,440
Speaker 1: it comes to immigration because the pets thing.

945
00:47:03,480 --> 00:47:05,800
Speaker 4: We won't get back into the big debate we had yesterday,

946
00:47:05,920 --> 00:47:06,600
Speaker 4: but I mean.

947
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 1: I think you more or less agree that it didn't

948
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:11,759
Speaker 1: work out. It's not going to work out for them politically.

949
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:14,719
Speaker 1: And I saw more polling yesterday that even a like

950
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:18,400
Speaker 1: overwhelming majority of Republican and said that the pets dogs

951
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:21,840
Speaker 1: cats saying comments were quote unquote weird, which again is

952
00:47:21,840 --> 00:47:26,400
Speaker 1: what Democrats want the public to be thinking about Donald

953
00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:29,680
Speaker 1: Trump and JD. Van So even when he was on

954
00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:33,480
Speaker 1: his topic of choice, he didn't use the time to

955
00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:36,040
Speaker 1: talk about it in a way that is appealing to

956
00:47:36,120 --> 00:47:38,839
Speaker 1: the people that might be won over. He used it,

957
00:47:38,920 --> 00:47:41,160
Speaker 1: you know, in a way that fed into a democratic

958
00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:44,120
Speaker 1: narrative about the ticket and sparked an entire you know,

959
00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:46,880
Speaker 1: we won't go back over it, but I think I

960
00:47:46,960 --> 00:47:49,040
Speaker 1: made my views on this pretty clear yesterday.

961
00:47:49,200 --> 00:47:51,080
Speaker 2: The debate has been there in terms of the polling

962
00:47:51,360 --> 00:47:53,799
Speaker 2: My thing is, I think you're probably right.

963
00:47:53,960 --> 00:47:54,919
Speaker 3: I just have no idea.

964
00:47:54,880 --> 00:47:59,480
Speaker 2: I just because of Kasir Khan, because of access Hollywood,

965
00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:02,239
Speaker 2: because of living through these moments where they're like this there,

966
00:48:02,440 --> 00:48:03,359
Speaker 2: this is going to get him.

967
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 3: Charlottesville is never going to happen. All of this.

968
00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:08,799
Speaker 4: I'm just you know, Charlottesville was bad for him, though.

969
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:11,279
Speaker 1: I mean, I think Charlottesville was a big part of

970
00:48:11,400 --> 00:48:14,640
Speaker 1: why he ends up losing in twenty twenty. His approval

971
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 1: rating took a giant hit, and I think Charlottesville January sixth,

972
00:48:18,640 --> 00:48:22,399
Speaker 1: like those moments where he was truly unhinged. I think

973
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:24,439
Speaker 1: it's pretty clear at this point are part of why

974
00:48:24,480 --> 00:48:27,080
Speaker 1: not only he lost in twenty twenty as a sitting

975
00:48:27,080 --> 00:48:30,319
Speaker 1: income at president, which yet he overperformed his polls but

976
00:48:30,400 --> 00:48:34,000
Speaker 1: he still lost, and why they dramatically underperformed in twenty

977
00:48:34,040 --> 00:48:38,120
Speaker 1: twenty two, the more that it was his candidates who

978
00:48:38,160 --> 00:48:41,600
Speaker 1: embraced some of these more you know, fringe, extreme outrageous

979
00:48:41,640 --> 00:48:45,319
Speaker 1: moments the worst they performed. So, you know, I do

980
00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:48,320
Speaker 1: think that some of the moments, it's not like nothing mattered,

981
00:48:48,440 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 1: somethings didn't matter, because he did end up losing.

982
00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:53,680
Speaker 3: Absolutely things matter. He barely lost.

983
00:48:53,920 --> 00:48:56,960
Speaker 2: I just I've been burned too many times to take

984
00:48:57,000 --> 00:49:00,520
Speaker 2: any of these conventional wisdom. And I genuinely A'm just

985
00:49:00,600 --> 00:49:02,640
Speaker 2: a we'll see. Why don't we get to Bill Maher because.

986
00:49:02,560 --> 00:49:05,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, well this is yeah exactly though this segues well

987
00:49:05,280 --> 00:49:08,440
Speaker 1: to Bill Maher, who made a pretty bold prediction in

988
00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:09,719
Speaker 1: his show last week.

989
00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:10,480
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen.

990
00:49:10,800 --> 00:49:12,840
Speaker 9: I'm gonna make this a very momentous night with a

991
00:49:12,880 --> 00:49:14,040
Speaker 9: prediction because.

992
00:49:16,239 --> 00:49:17,840
Speaker 6: And I think I have the credibility for this.

993
00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:20,719
Speaker 9: Prediction because I have been called a Trump alarmist for

994
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:21,520
Speaker 9: a very long time.

995
00:49:21,560 --> 00:49:22,120
Speaker 6: They were wrong.

996
00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:22,920
Speaker 8: I was right.

997
00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:24,399
Speaker 6: He wasn't going to leave power.

998
00:49:24,440 --> 00:49:29,920
Speaker 9: We okay, But ever since then, and since the Hollywood

999
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:31,880
Speaker 9: Access taper, he said I'm going to grab him by

1000
00:49:31,880 --> 00:49:35,480
Speaker 9: the pussy, and he survived that. Every time he's been

1001
00:49:35,520 --> 00:49:38,840
Speaker 9: done crazy shit and gotten his stelf in trouble. I said, no, no,

1002
00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:41,960
Speaker 9: it's not over. I've said that. I've argued with people.

1003
00:49:42,120 --> 00:49:44,399
Speaker 9: Brett Stevens, my good friend. He's on the show next week.

1004
00:49:44,440 --> 00:49:46,120
Speaker 9: He said at one point a few years ago, the

1005
00:49:46,200 --> 00:49:48,680
Speaker 9: Trump thing. I said no, no, no, tonight, I'm saying

1006
00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:50,279
Speaker 9: I think it's over.

1007
00:49:52,040 --> 00:49:55,399
Speaker 6: I just want to bring up I mean, now, let's

1008
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:56,240
Speaker 6: see that one person.

1009
00:49:57,680 --> 00:49:59,640
Speaker 9: Even before we were around, there was a guy named

1010
00:49:59,680 --> 00:50:01,800
Speaker 9: Joe McCarthy in the early fifties and he had a

1011
00:50:01,880 --> 00:50:06,200
Speaker 9: hold on America and it blew out in about two years, right,

1012
00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:08,640
Speaker 9: two three years. He was the biggest thing, and then

1013
00:50:08,719 --> 00:50:11,720
Speaker 9: it was just and I feel like eating the dogs

1014
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:14,560
Speaker 9: were at this point. I think, I feel like we're

1015
00:50:14,600 --> 00:50:18,200
Speaker 9: at the Captain Quig with the strawberries. We're at Denzel

1016
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:21,000
Speaker 9: at the end of training day. I'm a king ring

1017
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:21,520
Speaker 9: up last.

1018
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:25,640
Speaker 4: I just think he's gonna raise What do you think

1019
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:26,360
Speaker 4: sagara about that?

1020
00:50:27,719 --> 00:50:28,160
Speaker 3: I don't know.

1021
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:31,000
Speaker 2: I mean, listen, Bill's history is a little off in

1022
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:33,799
Speaker 2: terms of McCarthy. McCarthy lasted a lot longer than I mean,

1023
00:50:33,920 --> 00:50:36,640
Speaker 2: it's not wrong. The peak was definitely there for two

1024
00:50:36,760 --> 00:50:38,680
Speaker 2: or three years. What Bill is alluding to is this

1025
00:50:38,800 --> 00:50:41,960
Speaker 2: idea of like a have you No decency Sir? Movement,

1026
00:50:42,160 --> 00:50:45,880
Speaker 2: which you know has been cast as the general end

1027
00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:49,520
Speaker 2: of McCarthyism. But the idea that he's trying to get

1028
00:50:49,560 --> 00:50:52,440
Speaker 2: at is that this is the official breaking point get

1029
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:55,279
Speaker 2: it for the American electorate with Trump, and.

1030
00:50:55,440 --> 00:50:57,840
Speaker 3: I just don't see evidence of that.

1031
00:50:58,280 --> 00:51:03,400
Speaker 2: Also that coincide with a genuine like down spiral for McCarthy,

1032
00:51:03,640 --> 00:51:05,600
Speaker 2: not in the way that like, oh Trump is spiraling.

1033
00:51:05,760 --> 00:51:07,920
Speaker 2: He's still like, you know, it's with it. McCarthy was

1034
00:51:07,960 --> 00:51:10,839
Speaker 2: a literal alcoholic and came to death. Maybe I'm taking

1035
00:51:10,880 --> 00:51:13,440
Speaker 2: it a little bit too literally, but it is important

1036
00:51:13,680 --> 00:51:15,960
Speaker 2: to just think about, Like what he's trying to say

1037
00:51:16,040 --> 00:51:17,120
Speaker 2: is this, There was this phenomenon.

1038
00:51:17,200 --> 00:51:18,080
Speaker 3: It took over the whole country.

1039
00:51:18,120 --> 00:51:21,240
Speaker 2: It was massively popular, it had its hold on American politics,

1040
00:51:21,280 --> 00:51:24,239
Speaker 2: and then this was the breaking moment. People at the

1041
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:27,640
Speaker 2: time intuited actually that that probably was the end. And

1042
00:51:27,920 --> 00:51:31,080
Speaker 2: I don't intuit that yet, just because I can't when

1043
00:51:31,120 --> 00:51:33,200
Speaker 2: the man still has a toss up fifty to fifty

1044
00:51:33,280 --> 00:51:36,440
Speaker 2: chance of being elected president of the United States again,

1045
00:51:36,920 --> 00:51:40,200
Speaker 2: and if we look and we at the polling and

1046
00:51:40,280 --> 00:51:43,640
Speaker 2: how much closer he is today, the possibility of his

1047
00:51:43,920 --> 00:51:47,000
Speaker 2: victory looms larger than it did in twenty twenty and

1048
00:51:47,239 --> 00:51:48,400
Speaker 2: in twenty sixteen.

1049
00:51:48,440 --> 00:51:50,360
Speaker 3: So I just don't think it's really as accurate.

1050
00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:52,880
Speaker 2: But look, maybe Bill is right. If Trump loses by

1051
00:51:52,960 --> 00:51:55,799
Speaker 2: five by five points like nationally, which I don't think

1052
00:51:55,840 --> 00:51:58,839
Speaker 2: will happen but as possible, then yeah, absolutely, But I'm

1053
00:51:58,880 --> 00:51:59,839
Speaker 2: not really sure we're there yet.

1054
00:52:01,520 --> 00:52:05,160
Speaker 1: Here's what I find compelling. I don't you know, I

1055
00:52:05,160 --> 00:52:06,919
Speaker 1: don't look to Bill Maher to like have his finger

1056
00:52:06,960 --> 00:52:09,320
Speaker 1: on the pulse of the country at this point in

1057
00:52:09,440 --> 00:52:10,279
Speaker 1: his trajectory.

1058
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:11,320
Speaker 4: I don't think anyone should.

1059
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:14,840
Speaker 1: You know, what actually stuck with me from our debate

1060
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:17,440
Speaker 1: night coverage Soccer was the point that you made about

1061
00:52:17,640 --> 00:52:21,759
Speaker 1: how now we know how he's going to spiral, right,

1062
00:52:21,880 --> 00:52:25,560
Speaker 1: He's gonna double down on the Laura Loomers and Corey Lewandowski,

1063
00:52:26,200 --> 00:52:28,880
Speaker 1: the people that the Chris Lasovita and the Susie Wilds

1064
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:30,719
Speaker 1: are going to be on the ounce. Whether they, you know,

1065
00:52:30,840 --> 00:52:33,680
Speaker 1: get actually fired or he just doesn't listen to them anymore,

1066
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:38,799
Speaker 1: doesn't really matter in terms of the outcome. And he's

1067
00:52:39,000 --> 00:52:43,080
Speaker 1: losing time to reset this race, and I think he

1068
00:52:43,200 --> 00:52:45,520
Speaker 1: does need to reset this race. There's another pull out

1069
00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:48,359
Speaker 1: this morning Morning Consult that has Coma with a six

1070
00:52:48,440 --> 00:52:51,200
Speaker 1: point national lead. That's a that's a doubling in her

1071
00:52:51,719 --> 00:52:56,320
Speaker 1: national lead with that particular Polster post debate, and with

1072
00:52:56,440 --> 00:53:00,600
Speaker 1: the exception of one pole, that's been a pretty consistent

1073
00:53:00,840 --> 00:53:04,520
Speaker 1: post debate trend. Now you could say, okay, well, that

1074
00:53:05,000 --> 00:53:08,080
Speaker 1: you know, might be a temporary bump. Sure, but you

1075
00:53:08,200 --> 00:53:11,600
Speaker 1: have to see some sort of evidence that your opponent

1076
00:53:11,719 --> 00:53:14,960
Speaker 1: is going to be able to adjust and shift. And

1077
00:53:15,160 --> 00:53:18,840
Speaker 1: all we've seen is the contrary is him, you know,

1078
00:53:19,239 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 1: going in on his worst instincts, surrounding himself with the

1079
00:53:22,200 --> 00:53:25,640
Speaker 1: worst possible people he could surround himself with. And again,

1080
00:53:25,840 --> 00:53:29,319
Speaker 1: like some people in some states are literally voting now,

1081
00:53:29,600 --> 00:53:33,800
Speaker 1: it is September seventeenth, you know, it is very short

1082
00:53:34,000 --> 00:53:35,799
Speaker 1: period of time before election day.

1083
00:53:36,040 --> 00:53:37,640
Speaker 4: Trump himself has closed the door.

1084
00:53:37,760 --> 00:53:41,080
Speaker 1: And again this shows the foolishness of his tactics to

1085
00:53:41,200 --> 00:53:44,120
Speaker 1: another debate. He's out, you know, tweeting how much he

1086
00:53:44,160 --> 00:53:48,160
Speaker 1: hates Taylor Swift, et cetera, et cetera. So it's more,

1087
00:53:48,880 --> 00:53:52,200
Speaker 1: I it's hard for me to see how he adjusts

1088
00:53:52,719 --> 00:53:55,640
Speaker 1: and is able to make a more compelling case. Then

1089
00:53:55,960 --> 00:53:58,120
Speaker 1: you know that this one moment or this one instant

1090
00:53:58,239 --> 00:54:00,480
Speaker 1: incident is going to be the thing. And then I

1091
00:54:00,560 --> 00:54:03,960
Speaker 1: also just look like, you know, he won in twenty

1092
00:54:04,000 --> 00:54:06,520
Speaker 1: sixteen and it was shocking, right, and the poles were

1093
00:54:06,520 --> 00:54:09,480
Speaker 1: wrong and it was crazy, et cetera, et cetera. And

1094
00:54:09,640 --> 00:54:12,560
Speaker 1: ever since then, like you know, there's this sense that

1095
00:54:12,680 --> 00:54:15,400
Speaker 1: he's just got some sort of political magic that nobody

1096
00:54:15,440 --> 00:54:19,120
Speaker 1: else understands. But if you just look flat at the record,

1097
00:54:19,880 --> 00:54:22,839
Speaker 1: they did poorly in twenty eighteen, he lost in twenty twenty,

1098
00:54:22,920 --> 00:54:25,120
Speaker 1: they did poorly in twenty twenty two, and now here

1099
00:54:25,200 --> 00:54:27,600
Speaker 1: you are in twenty twenty four, and it's hard to

1100
00:54:27,640 --> 00:54:29,920
Speaker 1: see what's different. And it's easy to see that he

1101
00:54:30,480 --> 00:54:33,440
Speaker 1: is not the same candidate he was in twenty sixteen.

1102
00:54:33,680 --> 00:54:37,759
Speaker 1: He's lost a step in terms of his co personal coherence,

1103
00:54:37,800 --> 00:54:40,720
Speaker 1: and he is aging, although not as like noticeably as Biden.

1104
00:54:41,160 --> 00:54:43,960
Speaker 1: And he's lost a step in terms of his sense

1105
00:54:44,200 --> 00:54:47,600
Speaker 1: of the electorate and having his finger on the pulse.

1106
00:54:48,200 --> 00:54:50,359
Speaker 1: So that's why you know, I don't think Bill Maher

1107
00:54:50,480 --> 00:54:53,239
Speaker 1: is entirely off face to sense this as a pivot point,

1108
00:54:53,280 --> 00:54:55,640
Speaker 1: because it was one of the best opportunities for Trump

1109
00:54:55,719 --> 00:54:58,239
Speaker 1: to really seize the narrative in this race in a

1110
00:54:58,320 --> 00:55:00,960
Speaker 1: way that benefits him, and he utterly failed to do it.

1111
00:55:01,840 --> 00:55:05,120
Speaker 2: Very possible, Crystal, he also did that. To return to

1112
00:55:05,160 --> 00:55:08,400
Speaker 2: twenty sixteen, he surrounded himself with loyalists. All the Republicans

1113
00:55:08,440 --> 00:55:11,120
Speaker 2: denounced him. Everybody said he was going to lose what

1114
00:55:11,280 --> 00:55:14,239
Speaker 2: was Kelly Aott and others were like nope, I'm unindorsing him.

1115
00:55:14,280 --> 00:55:16,719
Speaker 3: I'm gonna write in Mitt Romney and he won.

1116
00:55:16,880 --> 00:55:19,839
Speaker 2: So the problem too that Trump learned actually from that time,

1117
00:55:19,880 --> 00:55:21,719
Speaker 2: and part of the reason I said that is he

1118
00:55:21,920 --> 00:55:24,400
Speaker 2: has learned to actually trust his instincts. He has learned

1119
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:28,719
Speaker 2: that his base instincts, on top of surrounding himself by loyalists,

1120
00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:32,440
Speaker 2: can and often does pay off for him. Now, obviously

1121
00:55:32,640 --> 00:55:34,440
Speaker 2: that did not work in twenty twenty, and that's part

1122
00:55:34,440 --> 00:55:37,279
Speaker 2: of the reason the January sixth insanity was as bad

1123
00:55:37,360 --> 00:55:39,280
Speaker 2: as it was. And I'm not talking about the actual

1124
00:55:40,320 --> 00:55:43,279
Speaker 2: riot at the Capitol. I'm talking about Mike Lindell and

1125
00:55:43,360 --> 00:55:47,120
Speaker 2: the Overstock CEO in the Oval office with Sidney Powell

1126
00:55:47,440 --> 00:55:49,080
Speaker 2: doing the whole fake elect or stuff.

1127
00:55:49,120 --> 00:55:49,400
Speaker 5: That was.

1128
00:55:49,560 --> 00:55:53,200
Speaker 2: Honestly, that's way worse in my opinion, just not only

1129
00:55:53,239 --> 00:55:54,840
Speaker 2: in terms of what the overall effect would have been.

1130
00:55:54,920 --> 00:55:57,320
Speaker 2: That's actually if you look, is what he's being charged

1131
00:55:57,360 --> 00:56:01,520
Speaker 2: with federally. And so this it's been a downside, it's

1132
00:56:01,520 --> 00:56:03,840
Speaker 2: been an upside, but it's one where how old is

1133
00:56:03,880 --> 00:56:06,759
Speaker 2: he seventy nine maybe seventy eight. He's not going to change.

1134
00:56:06,800 --> 00:56:09,319
Speaker 2: That's why I made that prediction. So you know, either

1135
00:56:09,360 --> 00:56:11,719
Speaker 2: things will go like they did in twenty sixteen. But

1136
00:56:12,000 --> 00:56:14,759
Speaker 2: it is very possible that Bill is right, and right

1137
00:56:14,920 --> 00:56:17,560
Speaker 2: mostly in the sense of if he spirals that or

1138
00:56:17,560 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 2: if he continues to surround himself, if he continues to

1139
00:56:20,560 --> 00:56:25,800
Speaker 2: keep this strategy going in he reminds people that he

1140
00:56:26,320 --> 00:56:29,040
Speaker 2: reminds and shows people in the highest flagship moment of

1141
00:56:29,080 --> 00:56:32,759
Speaker 2: politics of his modern career, that he made it more

1142
00:56:32,800 --> 00:56:37,120
Speaker 2: about himself his rallies and was easily baited as opposed

1143
00:56:37,200 --> 00:56:41,520
Speaker 2: to talking about issues that matter. Most Americans actually are

1144
00:56:41,680 --> 00:56:45,280
Speaker 2: voting on issues, or at least how they feel about issues,

1145
00:56:45,560 --> 00:56:47,080
Speaker 2: and that will be the biggest disconnect.

1146
00:56:47,160 --> 00:56:48,359
Speaker 3: So both of these canons have big.

1147
00:56:48,280 --> 00:56:51,120
Speaker 1: Problems, and he's losing ground to her right now on

1148
00:56:51,160 --> 00:56:53,759
Speaker 1: who would handle the economy better, and that should be

1149
00:56:54,040 --> 00:56:57,120
Speaker 1: you know, he should own that space every day, all

1150
00:56:57,239 --> 00:57:01,360
Speaker 1: day long. There is another difference that I mentioned yesterday

1151
00:57:01,400 --> 00:57:03,920
Speaker 1: but I think is very significant, which is with twenty sixteen,

1152
00:57:04,000 --> 00:57:08,720
Speaker 1: which is, however you feel about Kamala Harris, or however

1153
00:57:08,920 --> 00:57:11,560
Speaker 1: I feel about Kamala Harris, her favorability is pretty good.

1154
00:57:11,719 --> 00:57:15,200
Speaker 1: It's basically even, which you know, doesn't sound amazing, but

1155
00:57:15,440 --> 00:57:18,800
Speaker 1: in modern politics actually is kind of amazing, and back

1156
00:57:18,840 --> 00:57:22,680
Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen, he was running against a deeply unpopular

1157
00:57:22,760 --> 00:57:26,040
Speaker 1: candidate in Hillary Clinton, who had negative favorability rating of

1158
00:57:26,240 --> 00:57:31,080
Speaker 1: like minus sixteen, certainly in the double digits. And you know,

1159
00:57:31,280 --> 00:57:34,480
Speaker 1: I think that that matters and is quite significant as well.

1160
00:57:34,920 --> 00:57:37,520
Speaker 1: I also am starting to think, you know, in twenty twenty,

1161
00:57:37,880 --> 00:57:39,800
Speaker 1: and I mean we said this at the time, so

1162
00:57:39,920 --> 00:57:41,560
Speaker 1: it's not like this is really a change of tune

1163
00:57:41,600 --> 00:57:43,760
Speaker 1: for us, but there's this narrative that's taken hold that,

1164
00:57:43,920 --> 00:57:46,040
Speaker 1: like Joe Biden was such an amazing, perfect candidate in

1165
00:57:46,080 --> 00:57:50,880
Speaker 1: twenty twenty, the guy barely campaigned like he was. You know,

1166
00:57:51,000 --> 00:57:53,280
Speaker 1: he had the excuse of COVID, but we talked all

1167
00:57:53,320 --> 00:57:56,560
Speaker 1: the time about the basement strategy was like invisible for

1168
00:57:57,320 --> 00:58:00,240
Speaker 1: obvious reasons because his decline, while he was in a

1169
00:58:00,360 --> 00:58:02,920
Speaker 1: much better condition than he is today, it was already

1170
00:58:03,280 --> 00:58:06,640
Speaker 1: market it was already noticeable. And he did not run

1171
00:58:06,880 --> 00:58:09,760
Speaker 1: on any affirmative economic agenda. The good stuff that they

1172
00:58:09,840 --> 00:58:12,040
Speaker 1: ended up doing, he did not talk about at all

1173
00:58:12,120 --> 00:58:16,280
Speaker 1: in the campaign. It was purely referendum on Trump paid

1174
00:58:16,320 --> 00:58:18,840
Speaker 1: communications and I'm going to hide myself. And there was

1175
00:58:18,960 --> 00:58:22,640
Speaker 1: very little enthusiasm in favor of the Democratic ticket. All

1176
00:58:22,760 --> 00:58:25,680
Speaker 1: of the enthusiasm on the Democratic side was an anti

1177
00:58:25,800 --> 00:58:30,439
Speaker 1: Trump vote, so you know, and even that was enough

1178
00:58:30,680 --> 00:58:34,040
Speaker 1: to defeat Donald Trump at that point. So you know.

1179
00:58:34,120 --> 00:58:37,040
Speaker 1: I just I've been readjusting some of my priors about

1180
00:58:37,280 --> 00:58:41,480
Speaker 1: how extraordinary or powerful a political figure Donald Trump actually is,

1181
00:58:41,520 --> 00:58:44,000
Speaker 1: because outside of winning in twenty sixteen, the record has

1182
00:58:44,080 --> 00:58:45,600
Speaker 1: not been a winning one.

1183
00:58:46,040 --> 00:58:52,800
Speaker 2: Certainly possible, Crystal. Let's move on to mari Wana. I

1184
00:58:52,920 --> 00:58:55,800
Speaker 2: had to put this one in the show. Dave Portnoy

1185
00:58:55,960 --> 00:58:59,520
Speaker 2: kicked the hornets nest I guess on Twitter. He recently

1186
00:58:59,560 --> 00:59:04,320
Speaker 2: put out video endorsing the Florida Amendment three, which would

1187
00:59:04,560 --> 00:59:06,680
Speaker 2: legalize marijuana in the state.

1188
00:59:07,000 --> 00:59:07,760
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.

1189
00:59:08,280 --> 00:59:16,040
Speaker 8: Listen, It's Sunday afternoon, football on TV. Pizza on the

1190
00:59:16,120 --> 00:59:24,320
Speaker 8: way in Massachusetts, smoking a little weed, just enjoying my day. Florida.

1191
00:59:24,400 --> 00:59:27,040
Speaker 8: You can't do this in my Miami house. You can't

1192
00:59:27,080 --> 00:59:31,280
Speaker 8: do this. Why freedom? It's about freedom. Half the states

1193
00:59:31,320 --> 00:59:35,800
Speaker 8: allow this legal marijuana. Florida. I want to be able

1194
00:59:35,840 --> 00:59:40,240
Speaker 8: to watch football, eat pizza, and smoke. We're all adults here.

1195
00:59:40,360 --> 00:59:44,360
Speaker 8: Twenty one plus. Make your own decisions. It's on the ballot.

1196
00:59:44,520 --> 00:59:49,240
Speaker 8: Vote yes on three. Legalize recreational weed. Come on, where

1197
00:59:49,320 --> 00:59:55,000
Speaker 8: are we Florida? Wake up? Wake up. Don't tell what

1198
00:59:55,280 --> 00:59:57,480
Speaker 8: other people want to do in their own house. We're

1199
00:59:57,520 --> 01:00:01,080
Speaker 8: grown adults. It's safe, it's legal. Over half the states

1200
01:00:01,120 --> 01:00:03,800
Speaker 8: in the country have it. Why don't we in Florida.

1201
01:00:03,800 --> 01:00:05,920
Speaker 8: I'm a Florida resident. I want to be able to

1202
01:00:05,960 --> 01:00:08,919
Speaker 8: smoke in my house, watching football, eating pizza like a human.

1203
01:00:09,200 --> 01:00:12,240
Speaker 8: I can do it in Massachusetts. Make it legal on

1204
01:00:12,520 --> 01:00:15,160
Speaker 8: ballot A vote yes on three in Florida.

1205
01:00:15,320 --> 01:00:15,680
Speaker 6: Thank you?

1206
01:00:16,640 --> 01:00:16,960
Speaker 2: All right?

1207
01:00:17,000 --> 01:00:18,000
Speaker 4: Amen? Amen?

1208
01:00:18,120 --> 01:00:22,280
Speaker 2: Brother, Okay, this is bullshit because nobody in the state

1209
01:00:22,320 --> 01:00:24,919
Speaker 2: of Florida is getting arrested for smoking weed in their house.

1210
01:00:25,080 --> 01:00:26,800
Speaker 2: In fact, weed addicts. By the way, I put this

1211
01:00:26,840 --> 01:00:29,440
Speaker 2: out yesterday. If you all just stay home and eat pizza,

1212
01:00:29,720 --> 01:00:31,920
Speaker 2: be my guest. Nobody cares about what you do at home.

1213
01:00:32,200 --> 01:00:35,240
Speaker 2: When you smoke outside, whenever you smoke behind the wheel

1214
01:00:35,240 --> 01:00:37,680
Speaker 2: of a car because it's chill. When you smoke around

1215
01:00:37,720 --> 01:00:40,960
Speaker 2: children in public pararks, yeah, I think that's a problem.

1216
01:00:41,920 --> 01:00:44,720
Speaker 2: And that's the issue is they think that it's fine

1217
01:00:44,760 --> 01:00:48,760
Speaker 2: to pollute public spaces. Just light up outside. I just landed,

1218
01:00:48,800 --> 01:00:51,400
Speaker 2: by the way, recently, Denver airport. People next to me

1219
01:00:51,480 --> 01:00:53,440
Speaker 2: are smoking weed while waiting for a rental car. We

1220
01:00:53,520 --> 01:00:55,360
Speaker 2: need smoke weed while waiting for a rental car while

1221
01:00:55,360 --> 01:00:57,240
Speaker 2: we're about to break the law. Everybody just thinks it's

1222
01:00:57,280 --> 01:01:01,160
Speaker 2: totally fine. We get behind the wheel and they're totally intoxid. So, frankly,

1223
01:01:01,240 --> 01:01:03,720
Speaker 2: this is a bullshite understanding of what legal weed would

1224
01:01:03,800 --> 01:01:06,160
Speaker 2: mean for the state of Florida, because it's really more

1225
01:01:06,200 --> 01:01:08,720
Speaker 2: about public consumption and being some of us.

1226
01:01:09,240 --> 01:01:12,000
Speaker 3: Nobody's get at home, nobody zero.

1227
01:01:12,280 --> 01:01:16,000
Speaker 1: Dave Portnoy happened to believe in a little concept called freedom.

1228
01:01:16,800 --> 01:01:17,160
Speaker 8: There's no.

1229
01:01:19,560 --> 01:01:20,720
Speaker 3: One's violating your freedom at home.

1230
01:01:21,000 --> 01:01:23,160
Speaker 4: Zero that you don't believe in freedom, That's what's sad

1231
01:01:23,200 --> 01:01:23,360
Speaker 4: to me.

1232
01:01:23,520 --> 01:01:25,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is what I'm talking about, Like it's it's

1233
01:01:25,320 --> 01:01:29,240
Speaker 2: just total propaganda by these weedheads and uh like, who

1234
01:01:29,400 --> 01:01:32,200
Speaker 2: is coming to Dave Portnoy's Miami house and arresting them

1235
01:01:32,560 --> 01:01:36,560
Speaker 2: for marijuana they will for blowing up cocaine. I mean,

1236
01:01:36,600 --> 01:01:39,880
Speaker 2: it's not ridiculous because that the point is that that's

1237
01:01:40,000 --> 01:01:42,520
Speaker 2: not actually what is happening. What's happening is it would

1238
01:01:42,600 --> 01:01:45,960
Speaker 2: legalize high potency THC, which would be violely a bit

1239
01:01:46,040 --> 01:01:48,080
Speaker 2: widely available commercially in the state.

1240
01:01:48,440 --> 01:01:50,000
Speaker 3: It would be a boon for big banks.

1241
01:01:50,040 --> 01:01:53,160
Speaker 4: It would be regulated.

1242
01:01:53,280 --> 01:01:55,760
Speaker 2: It would be so regulated like it is in Colorado.

1243
01:01:56,120 --> 01:01:59,520
Speaker 4: Teenagers regulated well more dangerous.

1244
01:02:00,320 --> 01:02:04,040
Speaker 2: In the state of Colorado, high potency THC is poisoning children.

1245
01:02:04,400 --> 01:02:05,160
Speaker 3: Er visits are up.

1246
01:02:05,240 --> 01:02:07,440
Speaker 2: They have massive amounts of traffic debts, and the amount

1247
01:02:07,480 --> 01:02:10,360
Speaker 2: of tax revenue does not even compare to what they

1248
01:02:10,440 --> 01:02:14,800
Speaker 2: initially promised. It is almost certainly being overwhelmed in emergency

1249
01:02:14,880 --> 01:02:18,280
Speaker 2: services and higher police or public safety needs.

1250
01:02:18,480 --> 01:02:20,480
Speaker 3: And the entire city smells like shit.

1251
01:02:20,720 --> 01:02:22,960
Speaker 2: So if that's the trade that you would like in Miami,

1252
01:02:23,400 --> 01:02:26,360
Speaker 2: in Miami Beach, in Tampa, in Jacksonville.

1253
01:02:26,520 --> 01:02:28,040
Speaker 3: Be by the way, I don't live in Florida. You

1254
01:02:28,120 --> 01:02:29,000
Speaker 3: people do whatever you want.

1255
01:02:29,080 --> 01:02:31,320
Speaker 2: I visit probably once a year, and I'm like, why

1256
01:02:31,400 --> 01:02:33,960
Speaker 2: did I come to this place exactly, So let's put

1257
01:02:33,960 --> 01:02:36,320
Speaker 2: this up there on the screen. In terms of the polls,

1258
01:02:36,400 --> 01:02:40,400
Speaker 2: the polls currently disagree on the fate of Florida marijuana

1259
01:02:40,600 --> 01:02:44,800
Speaker 2: legalization initiative. Among those who have been surveyed, sixty six

1260
01:02:44,840 --> 01:02:47,320
Speaker 2: percent said that they would vote yes. Only thirty three

1261
01:02:47,360 --> 01:02:49,640
Speaker 2: percent say say no. I will just put it on

1262
01:02:49,680 --> 01:02:51,880
Speaker 2: the table I don't generally make predictions. I think it

1263
01:02:51,960 --> 01:02:55,080
Speaker 2: is going to pass just because I think marijuana legalization

1264
01:02:55,200 --> 01:02:57,200
Speaker 2: is unfortunately incredibly popular, So it's.

1265
01:02:57,160 --> 01:02:58,320
Speaker 3: Very popular people.

1266
01:02:58,320 --> 01:03:00,959
Speaker 4: Most Americans agree with me and Dave Portnoy and believe

1267
01:03:01,040 --> 01:03:01,400
Speaker 4: in freedom.

1268
01:03:01,480 --> 01:03:03,640
Speaker 3: Be my guest, you want to ruin public you.

1269
01:03:03,640 --> 01:03:06,760
Speaker 1: Know, just a technical thing that it has to get

1270
01:03:06,760 --> 01:03:09,800
Speaker 1: sixty percent to pass. I believe it is the margin.

1271
01:03:09,920 --> 01:03:12,680
Speaker 1: And so there was one poll from Florida Atlantic University

1272
01:03:12,720 --> 01:03:15,120
Speaker 1: that had it at fifty six percent, but you still

1273
01:03:15,280 --> 01:03:18,240
Speaker 1: had some fifteen percent who said that they didn't know

1274
01:03:18,320 --> 01:03:19,600
Speaker 1: how they would vote on the measures.

1275
01:03:19,640 --> 01:03:21,280
Speaker 4: I agree with you. I think it's pretty likely little

1276
01:03:21,360 --> 01:03:21,840
Speaker 4: past you had.

1277
01:03:21,800 --> 01:03:25,040
Speaker 1: Trump come out and endorse it amount in fact it

1278
01:03:25,440 --> 01:03:28,960
Speaker 1: so the more interesting thing to me not that I

1279
01:03:29,000 --> 01:03:30,840
Speaker 1: don't always find your views on the topic.

1280
01:03:30,720 --> 01:03:32,120
Speaker 4: Very interesting saga, but.

1281
01:03:33,600 --> 01:03:38,320
Speaker 1: There is an interesting divide in the GOP coalition between

1282
01:03:38,480 --> 01:03:41,600
Speaker 1: the what something the phenomena you've talked about, the barstool

1283
01:03:41,640 --> 01:03:46,000
Speaker 1: conservatives of course being chief among them, and the JD.

1284
01:03:46,200 --> 01:03:50,960
Speaker 1: Vance style conservatives, who are you know, social conservatives who

1285
01:03:50,960 --> 01:03:54,160
Speaker 1: are deeply concerned about like degeneracy and the decline of

1286
01:03:54,240 --> 01:03:55,280
Speaker 1: the culture, et cetera.

1287
01:03:55,080 --> 01:03:55,520
Speaker 4: Et cetera.

1288
01:03:56,240 --> 01:04:00,480
Speaker 1: And there was a unifying and there's still to some

1289
01:04:00,640 --> 01:04:03,760
Speaker 1: extent is but part of what brought them together was

1290
01:04:03,880 --> 01:04:07,600
Speaker 1: this like backlash against democratic wokeness right and the like

1291
01:04:08,120 --> 01:04:11,240
Speaker 1: you know, the the PC police and the policing of

1292
01:04:11,320 --> 01:04:14,880
Speaker 1: word language and all that stuff, and it sort of

1293
01:04:15,040 --> 01:04:17,920
Speaker 1: united them because the portnoid types are like, leave me

1294
01:04:17,960 --> 01:04:19,720
Speaker 1: the fuck alone, like I'm gonna say what I want

1295
01:04:19,760 --> 01:04:22,720
Speaker 1: to say, and the JD. Vans types are like, you know,

1296
01:04:23,160 --> 01:04:25,360
Speaker 1: they're I don't want to use him specifically, but that

1297
01:04:25,600 --> 01:04:29,000
Speaker 1: genre of conservative it's not that there's so much opposed

1298
01:04:29,520 --> 01:04:32,800
Speaker 1: to some censorship or restrictions in their direction, but they

1299
01:04:32,840 --> 01:04:40,440
Speaker 1: didn't like that particular like liberal institutional wokeness being codified

1300
01:04:40,480 --> 01:04:43,360
Speaker 1: in corporations and those sorts of things, because it's obviously

1301
01:04:43,440 --> 01:04:45,000
Speaker 1: on the other side of the culture war for them.

1302
01:04:45,080 --> 01:04:48,560
Speaker 1: So there was like a unifying theme there. The salience

1303
01:04:48,600 --> 01:04:51,280
Speaker 1: of that issue, I think anyone would say, has declined.

1304
01:04:51,400 --> 01:04:54,840
Speaker 1: It's not a major battleground in terms of this presidential election.

1305
01:04:54,920 --> 01:04:57,240
Speaker 1: It's not something Trump really ever talked about. Ron Santis

1306
01:04:57,320 --> 01:04:59,160
Speaker 1: really leaned into it. We saw how well that worked

1307
01:04:59,200 --> 01:05:02,280
Speaker 1: out for him, et ceter uh. And so you're getting

1308
01:05:02,400 --> 01:05:06,480
Speaker 1: more instances where this divide is on display. The other

1309
01:05:06,520 --> 01:05:09,000
Speaker 1: one that I can think of is the abortion argument,

1310
01:05:09,040 --> 01:05:12,360
Speaker 1: where Pornoy came out and you know, was relatively pro

1311
01:05:12,480 --> 01:05:15,200
Speaker 1: choice in his commentary, and there was again a backlash

1312
01:05:15,240 --> 01:05:17,240
Speaker 1: against him from more of the like you know, social

1313
01:05:17,280 --> 01:05:20,760
Speaker 1: conservative Jandie Vance wing of the party. And so that's

1314
01:05:20,960 --> 01:05:23,920
Speaker 1: that's actually what's interesting to me here about some of

1315
01:05:23,960 --> 01:05:27,240
Speaker 1: the backlash of poor Noy's comments is exposive a fissure

1316
01:05:27,800 --> 01:05:31,520
Speaker 1: between the social conservatives and the barstool conservatives within the

1317
01:05:31,600 --> 01:05:36,160
Speaker 1: GOP coalition that hadn't been on huge display until you know, recently.

1318
01:05:36,640 --> 01:05:38,680
Speaker 2: Let me take off my own hat and be descriptive.

1319
01:05:39,200 --> 01:05:42,800
Speaker 2: They're obviously more popular, like ten times more. And in fact,

1320
01:05:42,960 --> 01:05:45,000
Speaker 2: this is the issue is that by you mean the

1321
01:05:45,840 --> 01:05:48,800
Speaker 2: barcal people I said this, I look, I think barstool

1322
01:05:48,800 --> 01:05:50,920
Speaker 2: conservatism will be the future. I think that is exactly

1323
01:05:51,000 --> 01:05:53,360
Speaker 2: what the GOP will eventually look like. There will have

1324
01:05:53,480 --> 01:05:57,440
Speaker 2: to be some sis to Soljia moment on abortion or

1325
01:05:57,560 --> 01:06:00,960
Speaker 2: the abortion abortion question will be just resolved Democrats whenever

1326
01:06:01,000 --> 01:06:03,560
Speaker 2: they nationalize it, and the pro life people can shut

1327
01:06:03,640 --> 01:06:06,440
Speaker 2: up forever after that period. It's very likely that this

1328
01:06:06,600 --> 01:06:09,040
Speaker 2: is the direction that things will trend just because it's

1329
01:06:09,080 --> 01:06:09,800
Speaker 2: way more popular.

1330
01:06:09,880 --> 01:06:12,000
Speaker 3: People are a lot more secular. They don't like telling

1331
01:06:12,080 --> 01:06:13,160
Speaker 3: people what to do.

1332
01:06:13,800 --> 01:06:16,040
Speaker 2: And if you notice, like, for example, let's put the

1333
01:06:16,200 --> 01:06:19,200
Speaker 2: other side of who these people might have in terms

1334
01:06:19,240 --> 01:06:22,120
Speaker 2: of their political talent, like Ron DeSantis. Yeah, Ron de

1335
01:06:22,200 --> 01:06:24,840
Speaker 2: Santas is popular in Florida, but he lost massively in

1336
01:06:24,880 --> 01:06:27,520
Speaker 2: the GOP primary. And listen to the way that he

1337
01:06:27,600 --> 01:06:29,000
Speaker 2: talks about the issue. Let's take a listen.

1338
01:06:29,080 --> 01:06:29,880
Speaker 3: This is just yesterday.

1339
01:06:30,240 --> 01:06:33,440
Speaker 10: And what I tell people is your default on amending

1340
01:06:33,560 --> 01:06:36,560
Speaker 10: the Constitution should be no right. They should have to

1341
01:06:36,680 --> 01:06:39,960
Speaker 10: prove to you a really high bar why you would

1342
01:06:40,000 --> 01:06:43,240
Speaker 10: put something in the constitution which effectively can't be changed.

1343
01:06:43,600 --> 01:06:46,640
Speaker 10: Same thing with this Amendment three. You know the Amendment three.

1344
01:06:47,080 --> 01:06:51,080
Speaker 10: The media will refer to it as marijuana recreational legalization.

1345
01:06:51,280 --> 01:06:55,320
Speaker 10: That's not entirely true. It's a partial legalization because this

1346
01:06:55,440 --> 01:06:58,240
Speaker 10: has been put in by basically one big weed company

1347
01:06:58,600 --> 01:07:01,800
Speaker 10: that spents seventy five eighty million dollars. And yes, they

1348
01:07:01,920 --> 01:07:03,920
Speaker 10: write in there that you have a right to possess

1349
01:07:04,080 --> 01:07:06,720
Speaker 10: and use up to three ounces of marion, which the

1350
01:07:06,840 --> 01:07:09,400
Speaker 10: law enforcement tells me maybe fifty to one hundred joints,

1351
01:07:09,400 --> 01:07:11,200
Speaker 10: so that's more than any other state in the country.

1352
01:07:11,480 --> 01:07:14,400
Speaker 10: So they're putting that in the constitution. So yes, you

1353
01:07:14,520 --> 01:07:16,320
Speaker 10: do have that right, but only if you buy it

1354
01:07:16,400 --> 01:07:19,600
Speaker 10: from them. You can't grow it in your backyard. You

1355
01:07:19,680 --> 01:07:21,840
Speaker 10: got to buy it from them. So they're creating in

1356
01:07:21,920 --> 01:07:26,320
Speaker 10: our constitution a big weed cartel. And not only that,

1357
01:07:26,480 --> 01:07:31,600
Speaker 10: they're giving themselves protection from any civil liability at all

1358
01:07:31,920 --> 01:07:35,800
Speaker 10: at any point in the distribution or cultivation process. That's

1359
01:07:35,960 --> 01:07:37,240
Speaker 10: not in the ballot summary.

1360
01:07:38,000 --> 01:07:40,480
Speaker 2: I mean, look, empirically, he's right, but that's like the

1361
01:07:40,600 --> 01:07:43,760
Speaker 2: most boring way that you could possibly address this.

1362
01:07:44,840 --> 01:07:48,520
Speaker 1: Well, It's also what I took note of is like

1363
01:07:49,360 --> 01:07:51,320
Speaker 1: when you just argued against it, you went at it

1364
01:07:51,400 --> 01:07:55,600
Speaker 1: directly basically like this is bad, and here's why you

1365
01:07:55,720 --> 01:07:58,520
Speaker 1: can fell. He knows he's on losing grounds because he

1366
01:07:58,640 --> 01:08:01,880
Speaker 1: makes all these like proced vidural arguments about like well

1367
01:08:01,960 --> 01:08:05,080
Speaker 1: maybe we should mess with the constitution, you know, which

1368
01:08:05,120 --> 01:08:07,920
Speaker 1: again isn't a weed specific argument. It's just like a

1369
01:08:08,160 --> 01:08:10,920
Speaker 1: you know, appeal to sort of tradition and sense of

1370
01:08:11,040 --> 01:08:14,280
Speaker 1: people's fear of change. Then he does this kind of

1371
01:08:14,360 --> 01:08:16,519
Speaker 1: jiu jitsu and like, oh, well, this is really a

1372
01:08:16,600 --> 01:08:20,320
Speaker 1: giveaway to corporations. None of it is a direct argument

1373
01:08:20,439 --> 01:08:23,600
Speaker 1: against the thing that people are actually voting on. And

1374
01:08:23,840 --> 01:08:27,559
Speaker 1: so to me, it's very telling that he knows he's

1375
01:08:27,600 --> 01:08:29,800
Speaker 1: looking at these full numbers. He knows he's on not

1376
01:08:30,000 --> 01:08:32,519
Speaker 1: on you know, solid grounds here in terms of public opinion,

1377
01:08:32,560 --> 01:08:34,040
Speaker 1: which is why he has to do all of these

1378
01:08:34,040 --> 01:08:36,880
Speaker 1: sort of ancillary arguments rather than making a direct appeal

1379
01:08:36,920 --> 01:08:37,320
Speaker 1: as you did.

1380
01:08:37,840 --> 01:08:40,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, I mean this is part of the problem.

1381
01:08:40,320 --> 01:08:42,280
Speaker 2: Let's continue in this vein. Let's put the next one

1382
01:08:42,320 --> 01:08:45,120
Speaker 2: up on the screen. Matt Walsh put out a tweet says,

1383
01:08:45,120 --> 01:08:46,880
Speaker 2: can you point to any state or city where life

1384
01:08:46,920 --> 01:08:50,320
Speaker 2: has been in anywhere measurably improved after legalizing marijuana? Where

1385
01:08:50,320 --> 01:08:52,400
Speaker 2: are the success st is? Just give me one please.

1386
01:08:52,680 --> 01:08:55,800
Speaker 2: But Jason Whitlock, you know, kind of also crystallizing what

1387
01:08:55,920 --> 01:08:58,280
Speaker 2: you're talking about here. This is why single people and

1388
01:08:58,320 --> 01:09:00,879
Speaker 2: people with hout kids shouldn't vote. We to think selfishly,

1389
01:09:00,960 --> 01:09:03,320
Speaker 2: with no concern to what we're leaving the next generation.

1390
01:09:03,479 --> 01:09:05,320
Speaker 2: Married people with kids should be the only voters. We

1391
01:09:05,360 --> 01:09:08,479
Speaker 2: should prioritize families. We want to fix our broken culture.

1392
01:09:08,560 --> 01:09:10,800
Speaker 2: Maybe you can agree or you can disagree, but that's

1393
01:09:10,840 --> 01:09:13,360
Speaker 2: not popular. I'll just put it that way, and that's

1394
01:09:13,400 --> 01:09:15,000
Speaker 2: the issue. We have to live in the realm of

1395
01:09:15,080 --> 01:09:18,439
Speaker 2: representative democracy. So look, you're correct. I made a very

1396
01:09:19,000 --> 01:09:21,559
Speaker 2: fourth right argument about it. But a lot of people

1397
01:09:21,640 --> 01:09:23,800
Speaker 2: don't even want to talk about the issue or get

1398
01:09:23,840 --> 01:09:27,120
Speaker 2: into this whole like, oh, people, kids shouldn't vote. The

1399
01:09:27,200 --> 01:09:30,960
Speaker 2: truth is that Portnoy is like a hedonist individualist. I

1400
01:09:31,320 --> 01:09:34,200
Speaker 2: would hope he does not take exception to that, because

1401
01:09:34,640 --> 01:09:38,120
Speaker 2: I would say, that's descriptive, that's not necessarily a bad thing,

1402
01:09:38,479 --> 01:09:41,639
Speaker 2: that's a very popular thing. It's a very American character.

1403
01:09:41,960 --> 01:09:45,360
Speaker 2: Actually I don't necessarily agree with it whenever it comes

1404
01:09:45,400 --> 01:09:49,160
Speaker 2: to marijuana, but descriptively, it is so obvious to me

1405
01:09:49,240 --> 01:09:51,680
Speaker 2: that things are going in that direction. It also is why,

1406
01:09:52,080 --> 01:09:55,599
Speaker 2: for example, Portnoy you know, went after JD. Vance about

1407
01:09:56,160 --> 01:09:59,000
Speaker 2: this idea of like having higher taxes or whatever for

1408
01:09:59,120 --> 01:10:02,599
Speaker 2: people who are seeing goal why he also but also

1409
01:10:02,720 --> 01:10:05,679
Speaker 2: why it's very important remember that he was pro Trump

1410
01:10:05,800 --> 01:10:10,240
Speaker 2: in twenty and fifteen, not for policy positions, for quote

1411
01:10:10,320 --> 01:10:12,840
Speaker 2: telling it like it is. And so I always pointed

1412
01:10:12,920 --> 01:10:15,400
Speaker 2: that I think is a very important precursor of where

1413
01:10:15,520 --> 01:10:17,880
Speaker 2: politics and all of that will trend how someone can

1414
01:10:18,000 --> 01:10:21,760
Speaker 2: be simultaneously pro choice and also like pro Trump.

1415
01:10:21,840 --> 01:10:23,560
Speaker 3: Anti woke left and all that.

1416
01:10:24,000 --> 01:10:26,439
Speaker 2: It seems incoherent if you think about politics in a

1417
01:10:26,520 --> 01:10:29,519
Speaker 2: nineteen ninety sense, but in a twenty twenty four cents,

1418
01:10:29,600 --> 01:10:31,439
Speaker 2: I actually think it's starting to make perfect sense.

1419
01:10:32,479 --> 01:10:35,600
Speaker 1: Fortnite really is sort of the living embodiment of the

1420
01:10:35,720 --> 01:10:37,879
Speaker 1: antithesis of JD. Vance's politics.

1421
01:10:38,040 --> 01:10:38,680
Speaker 3: Yes, that's right.

1422
01:10:39,680 --> 01:10:43,200
Speaker 1: Putting aside, you know, whatever policy proposals he puts out there,

1423
01:10:43,439 --> 01:10:48,680
Speaker 1: which you know I am. For example, on child tax credit, right,

1424
01:10:48,800 --> 01:10:51,160
Speaker 1: they had a child tax credit vote in the Senate

1425
01:10:51,280 --> 01:10:53,200
Speaker 1: and he didn't bother his show up for it. He

1426
01:10:53,280 --> 01:10:55,519
Speaker 1: certainly didn't like lead the charge to reinstate the child

1427
01:10:55,600 --> 01:10:59,559
Speaker 1: tax credit after the after it expired, you know, from

1428
01:10:59,640 --> 01:11:03,479
Speaker 1: the the COVID era provisions, et cetera. And I think,

1429
01:11:03,600 --> 01:11:05,360
Speaker 1: and you can tell me Zaga, because you know him

1430
01:11:05,400 --> 01:11:08,400
Speaker 1: and his ideology better than I do, that it's because

1431
01:11:08,920 --> 01:11:12,880
Speaker 1: he doesn't actually believe that policy is really central to

1432
01:11:13,120 --> 01:11:15,120
Speaker 1: the goals that he wants to accomplish.

1433
01:11:15,720 --> 01:11:17,480
Speaker 4: It's more about.

1434
01:11:19,120 --> 01:11:24,440
Speaker 1: Using culture to kind of enforce a certain cultural lifestyle

1435
01:11:24,600 --> 01:11:28,599
Speaker 1: that he thinks is the ideal based on his experience,

1436
01:11:28,680 --> 01:11:33,120
Speaker 1: his childhood, his religion, et cetera. And so you know,

1437
01:11:33,200 --> 01:11:35,200
Speaker 1: when Jadie Vance is out there talking about like we

1438
01:11:35,280 --> 01:11:39,200
Speaker 1: need to punish the childless or we need to you know,

1439
01:11:39,439 --> 01:11:42,160
Speaker 1: or flirting with this idea that Woodlock puts down there

1440
01:11:42,200 --> 01:11:44,639
Speaker 1: that hey, you know, your vote should count more if

1441
01:11:44,680 --> 01:11:50,240
Speaker 1: you have kids than if you don't, it's exactly because

1442
01:11:50,880 --> 01:11:55,760
Speaker 1: he thinks very negatively about the lifestyle of that Dave

1443
01:11:55,840 --> 01:11:58,760
Speaker 1: Portnoy has chosen, and he thinks that that should be

1444
01:12:00,000 --> 01:12:02,560
Speaker 1: effectively shamed. And I don't not try to use that

1445
01:12:02,720 --> 01:12:05,479
Speaker 1: like in an overly pejorative way, but effectively shamed out

1446
01:12:05,520 --> 01:12:09,559
Speaker 1: of existence or minimized. And yes, policy is one lever

1447
01:12:09,720 --> 01:12:12,960
Speaker 1: for that, but it's not just about rewarding people with families.

1448
01:12:13,040 --> 01:12:17,479
Speaker 1: It's about actively, like trying to disincentivize the lifestyle of

1449
01:12:17,800 --> 01:12:18,479
Speaker 1: Dave Portnoy.

1450
01:12:18,920 --> 01:12:21,320
Speaker 4: And so that's, you know, part of what I was

1451
01:12:21,360 --> 01:12:21,840
Speaker 4: thinking about.

1452
01:12:21,880 --> 01:12:24,040
Speaker 1: When you're hearing him talk about this and the way

1453
01:12:24,040 --> 01:12:25,960
Speaker 1: he's approaching to smoke of the blunt on the camera

1454
01:12:26,080 --> 01:12:30,240
Speaker 1: or whatever. It's like very weird that that person and

1455
01:12:30,560 --> 01:12:33,800
Speaker 1: Jade Vance exist in the same party, because they are

1456
01:12:34,720 --> 01:12:36,600
Speaker 1: diametrically opposed.

1457
01:12:36,560 --> 01:12:39,520
Speaker 4: In their view of the world and their approach to politics.

1458
01:12:39,800 --> 01:12:42,280
Speaker 2: I would the only thing I would really quibble is

1459
01:12:42,320 --> 01:12:44,719
Speaker 2: that it's not about culture to culture, it's actually about

1460
01:12:44,760 --> 01:12:47,600
Speaker 2: policy to culture. Like so for example, this whole like

1461
01:12:47,720 --> 01:12:50,840
Speaker 2: child tax credit debate, it's not about the child tax

1462
01:12:50,920 --> 01:12:54,080
Speaker 2: credit on its face, it's about increasing well First of all,

1463
01:12:54,200 --> 01:12:57,080
Speaker 2: it's actually about winning an intra party fight as opposed

1464
01:12:57,120 --> 01:12:59,600
Speaker 2: to working with the left, as in it needs to

1465
01:12:59,680 --> 01:13:01,960
Speaker 2: be a victory within the Republican Party to try and

1466
01:13:02,000 --> 01:13:04,160
Speaker 2: get them to vote for it, as opposed to working

1467
01:13:04,200 --> 01:13:06,719
Speaker 2: with the left to get something done. Second, is really,

1468
01:13:07,000 --> 01:13:10,320
Speaker 2: I mean really is about It's it's difficult to call

1469
01:13:10,360 --> 01:13:13,760
Speaker 2: it social engineering because also like leftist policy is also

1470
01:13:13,800 --> 01:13:15,840
Speaker 2: a form of social engineering. Like if you have a

1471
01:13:15,920 --> 01:13:19,360
Speaker 2: child tax the major disagreement at least between ProChile tax

1472
01:13:19,439 --> 01:13:21,360
Speaker 2: credit people on the right and left, is whether you

1473
01:13:21,400 --> 01:13:23,960
Speaker 2: should have means tests or single mothers like that is,

1474
01:13:24,120 --> 01:13:26,360
Speaker 2: if you do, that's a form of social engineering. If

1475
01:13:26,360 --> 01:13:28,880
Speaker 2: you don't, that's also a form of engineering. The point

1476
01:13:29,040 --> 01:13:31,559
Speaker 2: is is that it's about using tax policy to create

1477
01:13:31,600 --> 01:13:34,560
Speaker 2: a society that you have an objective view is the

1478
01:13:34,680 --> 01:13:38,120
Speaker 2: ideal way that you should live, and that if anything

1479
01:13:38,240 --> 01:13:42,960
Speaker 2: really describes like the major difference with Portnoyism or type

1480
01:13:42,960 --> 01:13:45,160
Speaker 2: of people who might be like him and JD is

1481
01:13:45,240 --> 01:13:48,559
Speaker 2: that like Portanoiism is really, like I said, it's about

1482
01:13:48,640 --> 01:13:54,280
Speaker 2: individuality libertarian. It is deeply socially and economically libertarian. Right,

1483
01:13:54,360 --> 01:13:57,360
Speaker 2: So it's just it's about small business, it's about individuality,

1484
01:13:57,400 --> 01:14:00,840
Speaker 2: it's about maximizing the ability of this self to achieve

1485
01:14:00,960 --> 01:14:05,640
Speaker 2: whatever it desires, as opposed to more of like a

1486
01:14:05,720 --> 01:14:09,160
Speaker 2: Judeo Christian way that JD would look at it, or

1487
01:14:09,240 --> 01:14:11,400
Speaker 2: even there's non religious ways to look at it too,

1488
01:14:11,680 --> 01:14:14,400
Speaker 2: which is like, no, the family is the individual. Unit

1489
01:14:14,520 --> 01:14:17,640
Speaker 2: is the unit which should be maximized, not the individual.

1490
01:14:17,920 --> 01:14:21,240
Speaker 2: That's a long time debate in America. Actually, it's a

1491
01:14:21,360 --> 01:14:26,240
Speaker 2: big divide not just between social libertarian and Republican or

1492
01:14:26,360 --> 01:14:31,679
Speaker 2: even conservatives, but Christians and non Christians or secular there's

1493
01:14:31,800 --> 01:14:35,120
Speaker 2: various secular debates like within this. So that's kind of

1494
01:14:35,120 --> 01:14:37,320
Speaker 2: the way that I've been looking at this. But I

1495
01:14:37,439 --> 01:14:41,280
Speaker 2: have no doubt that Portnoy and his vision or not

1496
01:14:41,360 --> 01:14:45,519
Speaker 2: even vision, his lifestyle like what he perpetuates and all

1497
01:14:45,600 --> 01:14:48,599
Speaker 2: that that is more popular amongst men today. I don't

1498
01:14:48,600 --> 01:14:50,920
Speaker 2: think that's necessarily a good thing, but I'm not stupid.

1499
01:14:50,960 --> 01:14:52,240
Speaker 2: I know where things are trending.

1500
01:14:53,000 --> 01:14:56,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I just I guess with JD. And I

1501
01:14:56,439 --> 01:14:59,320
Speaker 1: am interested your thought if this is accurate. You know,

1502
01:14:59,439 --> 01:15:02,519
Speaker 1: he talks a lot about, you know, the goals of

1503
01:15:03,240 --> 01:15:06,400
Speaker 1: family creation and centering the family, and you know, making

1504
01:15:06,400 --> 01:15:09,479
Speaker 1: it more difficult to get out of marriages, and you know.

1505
01:15:09,560 --> 01:15:11,479
Speaker 4: That that might be important bed rock.

1506
01:15:11,520 --> 01:15:13,880
Speaker 3: And I don't know religion it I know people around

1507
01:15:13,920 --> 01:15:14,400
Speaker 3: him have said it.

1508
01:15:14,920 --> 01:15:18,559
Speaker 1: He didn't, but anyway, yeah, I mean, he he has

1509
01:15:18,680 --> 01:15:22,000
Speaker 1: floated that it perhaps would be better if people had

1510
01:15:22,040 --> 01:15:25,840
Speaker 1: a more difficult time getting out of divorces. But in

1511
01:15:25,920 --> 01:15:29,400
Speaker 1: any case, but he doesn't talk a lot about He

1512
01:15:29,600 --> 01:15:31,920
Speaker 1: leans into the goals, but he doesn't talk a lot

1513
01:15:31,960 --> 01:15:37,000
Speaker 1: about the specific policies. And perhaps that's because, you know,

1514
01:15:37,160 --> 01:15:39,439
Speaker 1: it would be difficult to sign on to some of

1515
01:15:39,479 --> 01:15:42,000
Speaker 1: those policies in a Republican context, because some of them

1516
01:15:42,200 --> 01:15:46,200
Speaker 1: just sound like, you know, lefty progressive policies. But I

1517
01:15:46,760 --> 01:15:50,800
Speaker 1: suspect it's more about he is not afraid of using

1518
01:15:51,080 --> 01:15:55,160
Speaker 1: government to push in the direction that he wants to see,

1519
01:15:55,200 --> 01:16:00,000
Speaker 1: in the anti Portnoy direction, we'll say, but he believe

1520
01:16:00,000 --> 01:16:04,439
Speaker 1: he's more in the power of culture to change the

1521
01:16:04,520 --> 01:16:07,120
Speaker 1: things that he wants to change. And by the way,

1522
01:16:07,280 --> 01:16:10,120
Speaker 1: he's not necessarily wrong about that we were talking before.

1523
01:16:10,520 --> 01:16:13,240
Speaker 1: You know, if your goal is to increase the birth rate,

1524
01:16:13,320 --> 01:16:15,120
Speaker 1: which is one of his goals, if you have this

1525
01:16:15,240 --> 01:16:18,240
Speaker 1: like pro natalist approach and you look around the world,

1526
01:16:18,640 --> 01:16:23,080
Speaker 1: there's literally nowhere that any policy has actually worked to

1527
01:16:23,120 --> 01:16:26,000
Speaker 1: achieve that goal, and so then you have to look

1528
01:16:26,040 --> 01:16:28,759
Speaker 1: at Okay, well, then we need a more religious society

1529
01:16:28,840 --> 01:16:31,559
Speaker 1: where it's like, you know, a religious goal like part

1530
01:16:31,600 --> 01:16:35,679
Speaker 1: of your whole ethos, and culture is centered around kids

1531
01:16:35,760 --> 01:16:40,400
Speaker 1: and family versus a government prescription. And so that's that's

1532
01:16:40,479 --> 01:16:44,040
Speaker 1: my sense, that's my evolving sense of why he actually

1533
01:16:44,200 --> 01:16:48,440
Speaker 1: isn't all that interested in policies because he thinks cultural

1534
01:16:48,720 --> 01:16:52,160
Speaker 1: impetus and you know, pushing in an anti portnite direction

1535
01:16:52,320 --> 01:16:53,679
Speaker 1: is probably a more.

1536
01:16:53,560 --> 01:16:56,519
Speaker 4: Effective way to go. And why so interested in like

1537
01:16:56,600 --> 01:16:59,000
Speaker 4: the culture war over the sort of economic pieces that

1538
01:16:59,040 --> 01:16:59,960
Speaker 4: he sometimes talks about.

1539
01:17:00,240 --> 01:17:02,240
Speaker 2: That's not my sense, just because a lot of his

1540
01:17:02,360 --> 01:17:06,040
Speaker 2: staff are look Matt Iglesias today said, my sense amongst

1541
01:17:06,080 --> 01:17:08,439
Speaker 2: Democrats is that he has the most serious policy staff

1542
01:17:08,439 --> 01:17:09,599
Speaker 2: amongst Republicans on the Hill.

1543
01:17:09,640 --> 01:17:11,400
Speaker 3: So I don't think that's true. In fact, I think

1544
01:17:11,439 --> 01:17:13,160
Speaker 3: he's very well versed in policy.

1545
01:17:13,200 --> 01:17:14,640
Speaker 2: I think part of the reason you don't necessarily want

1546
01:17:14,640 --> 01:17:16,240
Speaker 2: to take a policy position is because it can be

1547
01:17:16,320 --> 01:17:19,280
Speaker 2: unpopular within your own party, and maybe you learn a

1548
01:17:19,360 --> 01:17:21,760
Speaker 2: thing or two from Donald Trump and Kamala Is. Hey,

1549
01:17:21,880 --> 01:17:25,080
Speaker 2: you know, the more breathing space you give yourself, the better.

1550
01:17:25,160 --> 01:17:27,519
Speaker 2: I would also say this, he's not the principle you

1551
01:17:27,600 --> 01:17:29,000
Speaker 2: know what I mean, He's learned the hard way on

1552
01:17:29,120 --> 01:17:31,560
Speaker 2: abortionne Like if you were running his own campaign, I

1553
01:17:31,600 --> 01:17:34,479
Speaker 2: think it would actually be quite different, at least in

1554
01:17:34,560 --> 01:17:36,880
Speaker 2: terms of what you're talking about. But with Trump, the

1555
01:17:37,080 --> 01:17:40,120
Speaker 2: vague being vague is probably a net benefit.

1556
01:17:40,240 --> 01:17:42,080
Speaker 3: You don't necessarily want to talk specifics.

1557
01:17:42,439 --> 01:17:44,519
Speaker 2: You don't want to give the opposition something they can

1558
01:17:44,600 --> 01:17:46,800
Speaker 2: hit you on in terms of a difference between him

1559
01:17:46,800 --> 01:17:48,880
Speaker 2: and Trump. So I don't think that that's correct on

1560
01:17:49,240 --> 01:17:50,960
Speaker 2: the policy front. I think it has much more to

1561
01:17:51,040 --> 01:17:53,040
Speaker 2: do with it a dynamics of being a vice president

1562
01:17:53,240 --> 01:17:55,439
Speaker 2: and also being within the Republican Party where there are

1563
01:17:55,560 --> 01:17:58,920
Speaker 2: huge civil wars like going on, like if they do win,

1564
01:17:59,080 --> 01:18:02,240
Speaker 2: there will be a assive fight on this come Tax

1565
01:18:02,320 --> 01:18:04,920
Speaker 2: Cuts and Jobs Act season on where and how to

1566
01:18:04,960 --> 01:18:07,000
Speaker 2: pay for it. And actually that'll be a little bit

1567
01:18:07,040 --> 01:18:09,760
Speaker 2: more interesting, honestly, about how it will really manifest when

1568
01:18:09,760 --> 01:18:12,280
Speaker 2: the two sides of them actually have power Senate Republicans

1569
01:18:12,479 --> 01:18:14,479
Speaker 2: and somebody like Vance in the White House, and then

1570
01:18:14,560 --> 01:18:15,880
Speaker 2: which way Donald Trump is going to go?

1571
01:18:16,720 --> 01:18:17,599
Speaker 4: Yeah for sure.

1572
01:18:17,800 --> 01:18:20,759
Speaker 1: Well, anyway, that's my intrigue with regard to to Portnoy

1573
01:18:20,840 --> 01:18:23,640
Speaker 1: and Vance is how they are truly like antithesis of

1574
01:18:23,680 --> 01:18:26,439
Speaker 1: each other in terms of politics, and yet today somehow

1575
01:18:26,520 --> 01:18:27,639
Speaker 1: exist in the same coalition.

1576
01:18:28,200 --> 01:18:30,800
Speaker 2: Well, Dick Cheney and AOC are in the same coalition too,

1577
01:18:30,840 --> 01:18:32,040
Speaker 2: which is part of the fun parts.

1578
01:18:31,840 --> 01:18:33,120
Speaker 4: Of the strange bedfellows.

1579
01:18:33,200 --> 01:18:36,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's go to the next one. Ukraine definitely wanted

1580
01:18:36,040 --> 01:18:38,880
Speaker 2: to make sure that we highlighted this. Let's go ahead

1581
01:18:38,880 --> 01:18:41,920
Speaker 2: and play some of Vladimir Putin's comments on the news

1582
01:18:42,000 --> 01:18:45,960
Speaker 2: that the US may allow NATO provided missiles to strike

1583
01:18:46,120 --> 01:18:48,960
Speaker 2: even deeper inside of Russia. So let's play the video

1584
01:18:49,040 --> 01:18:50,840
Speaker 2: and I'm going to read it. Putin says, this is

1585
01:18:50,880 --> 01:18:54,080
Speaker 2: their directive. Molment, of course, fundamentally changes the essence, the

1586
01:18:54,240 --> 01:18:58,080
Speaker 2: very nature of the conflict. He continues, this will mean

1587
01:18:58,240 --> 01:19:01,800
Speaker 2: that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are

1588
01:19:02,040 --> 01:19:05,040
Speaker 2: at war with Russia. If this is the case, considering

1589
01:19:05,120 --> 01:19:07,400
Speaker 2: the change in the very nature of this conflict, we

1590
01:19:07,479 --> 01:19:10,760
Speaker 2: will make corresponding decisions based on the threats that will

1591
01:19:10,800 --> 01:19:14,599
Speaker 2: be created for US. So that was direct quotes here

1592
01:19:14,680 --> 01:19:17,679
Speaker 2: from Vladimir Putin in reaction to some of the news

1593
01:19:17,760 --> 01:19:20,320
Speaker 2: and the debates that are coming out about US policy

1594
01:19:20,800 --> 01:19:23,439
Speaker 2: versus Ukraine. Let's put the next one up there on

1595
01:19:23,520 --> 01:19:26,879
Speaker 2: the screen, because this is the most important decision probably

1596
01:19:26,960 --> 01:19:30,320
Speaker 2: that we'll be made in this war so far. Anthony

1597
01:19:30,400 --> 01:19:33,639
Speaker 2: blinkoln Our Secretary of State, hints that the United States

1598
01:19:33,760 --> 01:19:38,000
Speaker 2: will lift arms restrictions on Ukraine using long range arms

1599
01:19:38,200 --> 01:19:39,439
Speaker 2: inside of Russia.

1600
01:19:39,840 --> 01:19:40,120
Speaker 3: Quote.

1601
01:19:40,160 --> 01:19:42,840
Speaker 2: The decision is understood to have already been made in private,

1602
01:19:42,920 --> 01:19:45,000
Speaker 2: as the Secretary of State says in Kiev.

1603
01:19:45,400 --> 01:19:48,040
Speaker 3: The US will continue to adapt its policy.

1604
01:19:48,479 --> 01:19:51,960
Speaker 2: Allegedly they're keeping this on the back burner and there

1605
01:19:52,080 --> 01:19:55,600
Speaker 2: is no official decision, but right now there will be

1606
01:19:55,720 --> 01:19:58,639
Speaker 2: a change in restriction on Ukraine's use of missiles which

1607
01:19:58,720 --> 01:20:02,040
Speaker 2: have a range of approximate one hundred and ninety miles

1608
01:20:02,360 --> 01:20:06,360
Speaker 2: to quote avoid reckless or unnecessary attacks, which is kind

1609
01:20:06,360 --> 01:20:09,200
Speaker 2: of a ridiculous way of framing it. Considering that Ukraine

1610
01:20:09,280 --> 01:20:12,519
Speaker 2: literally invaded Russia and continues to actually hold some of

1611
01:20:12,520 --> 01:20:15,679
Speaker 2: the territory that has not been disputed prior.

1612
01:20:15,560 --> 01:20:16,160
Speaker 3: To this war.

1613
01:20:16,520 --> 01:20:20,160
Speaker 2: The point is just that the slow bubbling things that

1614
01:20:20,240 --> 01:20:24,560
Speaker 2: are happening inside of Ukraine continue to be massively unstable

1615
01:20:24,640 --> 01:20:28,200
Speaker 2: and detrimental to the overall international order and have the

1616
01:20:28,400 --> 01:20:31,559
Speaker 2: risk of spiraling totally out of control in a highly

1617
01:20:31,920 --> 01:20:34,640
Speaker 2: predictable manner. And if you put it on the backdrop

1618
01:20:34,760 --> 01:20:37,439
Speaker 2: of everything that is happening, if you look at Kursk,

1619
01:20:37,560 --> 01:20:42,320
Speaker 2: for example, Russian advances putin and Russian resolve to continue

1620
01:20:42,360 --> 01:20:45,400
Speaker 2: the war, there has been basically zero change to the

1621
01:20:45,520 --> 01:20:49,080
Speaker 2: overall strategic status quo as a result of Ukraine being

1622
01:20:49,120 --> 01:20:52,280
Speaker 2: allowed to use these weapons. And yet the Ukraine lobby

1623
01:20:52,439 --> 01:20:55,240
Speaker 2: and Kamala and all of their the advisors in the

1624
01:20:55,280 --> 01:20:58,960
Speaker 2: White House, Biden and others, they just continue to direct

1625
01:20:59,240 --> 01:21:01,920
Speaker 2: in this post. Three years ago, it was totally off

1626
01:21:01,960 --> 01:21:04,960
Speaker 2: the table, this idea of giving Ukraine long range missiles

1627
01:21:04,960 --> 01:21:06,960
Speaker 2: to strike inside of Russia. Now we're just keep on

1628
01:21:07,080 --> 01:21:10,080
Speaker 2: upping the ante from tanks to F sixteen's to now

1629
01:21:10,160 --> 01:21:12,920
Speaker 2: to these missiles. It's just totally ridiculous. You know, the

1630
01:21:13,000 --> 01:21:17,200
Speaker 2: way that we whitewashed past policy and concerns of the past,

1631
01:21:17,479 --> 01:21:19,599
Speaker 2: and arguably give it to them at a time where

1632
01:21:19,640 --> 01:21:21,719
Speaker 2: it's not going to make even that much of a difference.

1633
01:21:21,800 --> 01:21:24,920
Speaker 2: The overall end to the war will not change all

1634
01:21:25,000 --> 01:21:27,919
Speaker 2: that much. So how many more square miles of territory

1635
01:21:28,240 --> 01:21:30,000
Speaker 2: is it worth it? Wall Street Journal has a story

1636
01:21:30,080 --> 01:21:33,400
Speaker 2: up this morning say that the unofficial death toll is

1637
01:21:33,479 --> 01:21:35,720
Speaker 2: somewhere in the nature of one million.

1638
01:21:35,560 --> 01:21:37,080
Speaker 3: As a result of this war.

1639
01:21:37,520 --> 01:21:41,599
Speaker 2: Yeah, and those are with the fake CIA numbers about

1640
01:21:41,640 --> 01:21:42,280
Speaker 2: Ukrainian dead.

1641
01:21:42,439 --> 01:21:44,080
Speaker 3: So what's the real number? A million?

1642
01:21:44,200 --> 01:21:48,240
Speaker 2: Five, you know, something like that. That's a disaster for them,

1643
01:21:48,439 --> 01:21:50,200
Speaker 2: for Russia, for the world.

1644
01:21:50,600 --> 01:21:51,799
Speaker 4: Just absolutely horrible.

1645
01:21:52,160 --> 01:21:54,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, listen, I guess what people say in

1646
01:21:54,800 --> 01:21:57,679
Speaker 1: response is, Okay, Putin's made a lot of threats before

1647
01:21:57,920 --> 01:22:00,880
Speaker 1: and hasn't necessarily followed through on them. So yeah, he's

1648
01:22:00,920 --> 01:22:03,640
Speaker 1: full of bluster about how this will be a declaration,

1649
01:22:03,800 --> 01:22:06,840
Speaker 1: NATO declaration of war against Russia, et cetera, et cetera.

1650
01:22:07,080 --> 01:22:10,720
Speaker 1: But these probably just bluffing and it's like, okay, well,

1651
01:22:10,920 --> 01:22:13,720
Speaker 1: can we at least talk about it, like, can we

1652
01:22:13,800 --> 01:22:17,120
Speaker 1: at least really focus the American people's attention on what

1653
01:22:17,240 --> 01:22:21,080
Speaker 1: would be obviously an extraordinary escalation on you know, these

1654
01:22:21,160 --> 01:22:23,519
Speaker 1: threats from Putin and what we should make of them,

1655
01:22:23,800 --> 01:22:26,880
Speaker 1: and you know, at least have a fulsome debate about

1656
01:22:26,920 --> 01:22:29,680
Speaker 1: where this is going, because you know, we've used this

1657
01:22:29,840 --> 01:22:33,600
Speaker 1: term sleepwalking from the beginning of this war, and it

1658
01:22:33,840 --> 01:22:37,839
Speaker 1: just feels more and more accurate of now the initial

1659
01:22:38,840 --> 01:22:42,400
Speaker 1: horror and attention is gone. There's very little coverage of

1660
01:22:42,600 --> 01:22:45,920
Speaker 1: what's going on and what each of these individual decisions mean,

1661
01:22:46,160 --> 01:22:49,439
Speaker 1: and yet they're so incredibly consequential. That's what's really disturbing.

1662
01:22:49,920 --> 01:22:52,280
Speaker 1: And the other thing I'm thinking is, you know, we

1663
01:22:52,439 --> 01:22:56,400
Speaker 1: know how difficult it is for American presidents to bring

1664
01:22:56,640 --> 01:22:59,479
Speaker 1: conflicts to a close, because as long as it's ongoing,

1665
01:22:59,520 --> 01:23:02,400
Speaker 1: you can you live in the like, you know, perfect

1666
01:23:02,479 --> 01:23:06,120
Speaker 1: fantasy land whereas Lenski regains all control and Putin is vanquished,

1667
01:23:06,160 --> 01:23:08,679
Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera, even though that's obviously not going

1668
01:23:08,800 --> 01:23:12,080
Speaker 1: to be reality. The moment you have a conclusion, then

1669
01:23:12,120 --> 01:23:14,680
Speaker 1: there is a hard and fast outcome which we can

1670
01:23:15,320 --> 01:23:18,519
Speaker 1: then use to debate whether, I don't know, we should

1671
01:23:18,520 --> 01:23:22,479
Speaker 1: have spent years fighting this war rather than engaged in

1672
01:23:22,640 --> 01:23:25,240
Speaker 1: the peace negotiations, which were available to us at the

1673
01:23:25,280 --> 01:23:28,519
Speaker 1: beginning of this conflict before a million people were killed.

1674
01:23:29,040 --> 01:23:32,880
Speaker 1: So that's the logic of ongoing conflicts and endless wars.

1675
01:23:32,960 --> 01:23:35,800
Speaker 1: And of course the other logic of it is that

1676
01:23:35,880 --> 01:23:38,040
Speaker 1: you have many people who profit directly off of it,

1677
01:23:38,160 --> 01:23:40,759
Speaker 1: and no one really profiting directly off of peace except

1678
01:23:40,800 --> 01:23:43,960
Speaker 1: for the people who benefit from not being having their

1679
01:23:44,000 --> 01:23:47,479
Speaker 1: home land destroyed and fighting and dying. So, you know,

1680
01:23:47,600 --> 01:23:51,320
Speaker 1: Biden right now, he's a lame duck president. His political

1681
01:23:51,360 --> 01:23:54,800
Speaker 1: standing outside of whatever blowback it has on Kamala, Harris,

1682
01:23:54,840 --> 01:23:58,479
Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera, his political standing really doesn't matter anymore.

1683
01:23:58,920 --> 01:24:02,120
Speaker 4: So like, take the hit, bring this thing to a.

1684
01:24:02,160 --> 01:24:05,560
Speaker 1: Close, end it, because if it goes into the next administration,

1685
01:24:05,880 --> 01:24:08,439
Speaker 1: whether it's Kamala or Trump, they're both gonna look at

1686
01:24:08,479 --> 01:24:10,800
Speaker 1: the same calculus and say, listen, what behooves us is

1687
01:24:10,880 --> 01:24:12,559
Speaker 1: to just kind of keep this thing on a slow

1688
01:24:12,600 --> 01:24:15,960
Speaker 1: burn and maintain the status quote indefinitely and kick the

1689
01:24:16,040 --> 01:24:16,800
Speaker 1: can down the road.

1690
01:24:17,160 --> 01:24:19,120
Speaker 2: Yes, and let's put this next one up there on

1691
01:24:19,240 --> 01:24:22,720
Speaker 2: the screen. It now appears that if you look at

1692
01:24:22,880 --> 01:24:26,040
Speaker 2: poll everyone says, oh, nothing without Ukraine or nothing for

1693
01:24:26,240 --> 01:24:29,920
Speaker 2: Ukraine without Ukraine. I mean, look at this, guys. Look

1694
01:24:30,120 --> 01:24:33,559
Speaker 2: more Ukrainians today want a negotiated peace to the end

1695
01:24:33,560 --> 01:24:36,800
Speaker 2: of the war than at any time before. It's actually

1696
01:24:36,920 --> 01:24:39,840
Speaker 2: the men who have been drafted and forced into the

1697
01:24:39,920 --> 01:24:42,640
Speaker 2: Ukrainian military who are the only ones who say that

1698
01:24:42,720 --> 01:24:45,760
Speaker 2: we should quote fight until it liberates all territory to

1699
01:24:45,840 --> 01:24:49,760
Speaker 2: the nineteen ninety one borders. But the highest number than

1700
01:24:49,920 --> 01:24:53,600
Speaker 2: ever before say that they should negotiate with Russia to

1701
01:24:53,800 --> 01:24:57,560
Speaker 2: achieve peace to quote, seek a compromise to end the

1702
01:24:57,680 --> 01:25:01,439
Speaker 2: war through negotiations. Now it's only forty three percent. You

1703
01:25:01,520 --> 01:25:04,679
Speaker 2: still got fifty four percent, but that is much higher

1704
01:25:05,000 --> 01:25:09,600
Speaker 2: than previous polls of the war have found. And what

1705
01:25:09,800 --> 01:25:13,559
Speaker 2: they say is that it's clear when you take into

1706
01:25:13,640 --> 01:25:19,640
Speaker 2: consideration the death and the population projections, this is if

1707
01:25:19,720 --> 01:25:21,960
Speaker 2: the longer it goes, the more in benefit of Russia.

1708
01:25:22,200 --> 01:25:25,519
Speaker 2: So for example, you know, population projections of Russia and

1709
01:25:25,720 --> 01:25:28,840
Speaker 2: Ukraine up until twenty one hundred are both dismal. But

1710
01:25:29,320 --> 01:25:32,599
Speaker 2: for Russia they'll still have well over one hundred million people.

1711
01:25:32,880 --> 01:25:36,400
Speaker 2: For the Ukrainians, it starts trending down from a height

1712
01:25:36,560 --> 01:25:40,280
Speaker 2: of fifty million around the Soviet Union collapse to like

1713
01:25:40,560 --> 01:25:43,920
Speaker 2: five million. You were talking about a tenfold reduction of

1714
01:25:44,160 --> 01:25:47,320
Speaker 2: the overall population of the country, because not only if

1715
01:25:47,320 --> 01:25:49,800
Speaker 2: so many people have been killed, so many people have fled,

1716
01:25:50,400 --> 01:25:54,680
Speaker 2: that's a disaster. No civilization can survive that, or at

1717
01:25:54,760 --> 01:25:56,479
Speaker 2: least in the way that they want to, because its

1718
01:25:56,640 --> 01:26:00,720
Speaker 2: entire war is supposedly all about protecting their identity and

1719
01:26:00,800 --> 01:26:04,679
Speaker 2: their sovereignty, etc. So it's clear, like if you want,

1720
01:26:05,120 --> 01:26:08,000
Speaker 2: if you want the outcome that you allegedly want, then

1721
01:26:08,040 --> 01:26:10,439
Speaker 2: it's pretty clear what you should do. Biden could easily

1722
01:26:10,479 --> 01:26:12,519
Speaker 2: help you get there. Biden will not do it because

1723
01:26:12,600 --> 01:26:16,120
Speaker 2: for Ukraine, or I mean for Biden, NATO and Ukraine

1724
01:26:16,280 --> 01:26:18,240
Speaker 2: is like a religion. It's like the only thing that

1725
01:26:18,320 --> 01:26:22,320
Speaker 2: still fires his synapses. So we're locked in, locked that.

1726
01:26:22,439 --> 01:26:23,920
Speaker 4: In Zionism, which we're about to get to.

1727
01:26:24,000 --> 01:26:26,000
Speaker 3: Yeah right, yeah, good point, Yeah, good point. All right,

1728
01:26:26,080 --> 01:26:26,560
Speaker 3: let's get to it.

1729
01:26:29,400 --> 01:26:32,639
Speaker 1: So a lot of very significant developments coming out of Israel.

1730
01:26:32,720 --> 01:26:34,840
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and put this first image up on

1731
01:26:34,920 --> 01:26:38,599
Speaker 1: the screen. This is some video that was released by

1732
01:26:38,720 --> 01:26:42,719
Speaker 1: the Hoofis of a hypersonic missile that they are calling

1733
01:26:42,840 --> 01:26:46,960
Speaker 1: Palestine two. They are claiming that this is the missile

1734
01:26:47,000 --> 01:26:51,080
Speaker 1: that hit the outskirts of Tel Aviv on Saturday, so

1735
01:26:51,200 --> 01:26:53,320
Speaker 1: you can see it there and indication you know, they're

1736
01:26:53,360 --> 01:26:56,120
Speaker 1: trying to flex their muscle and proved to be a

1737
01:26:56,240 --> 01:26:59,840
Speaker 1: significant threat to the population of Israel's going and put

1738
01:26:59,840 --> 01:27:01,680
Speaker 1: the next piece up on the screen. This is from

1739
01:27:01,720 --> 01:27:05,040
Speaker 1: the Washington Post talking about this attack. The headline here

1740
01:27:05,040 --> 01:27:07,400
Speaker 1: who They's fire missile from yam and into central Israel,

1741
01:27:07,479 --> 01:27:10,479
Speaker 1: warn of more strikes. In the report, they say they

1742
01:27:10,520 --> 01:27:14,639
Speaker 1: claimed responsibility for a surface to surface missile attacking central

1743
01:27:14,800 --> 01:27:18,320
Speaker 1: Israel on Sunday morning, marking a continued escalation between the

1744
01:27:18,360 --> 01:27:22,679
Speaker 1: Iranian backed group and Israel. Caused no direct injuries, though

1745
01:27:22,960 --> 01:27:26,080
Speaker 1: they did respond with emergency services and treated nine people

1746
01:27:26,120 --> 01:27:29,759
Speaker 1: who were injured on their way to shelters after sirens sounded.

1747
01:27:30,160 --> 01:27:33,519
Speaker 1: The Houfi military spokesman described it as a hypersonic ballistic

1748
01:27:33,760 --> 01:27:37,240
Speaker 1: missile targeting military operations. The IDF said in a statement

1749
01:27:37,280 --> 01:27:39,799
Speaker 1: the missile was hit by an interceptor as a result

1750
01:27:39,880 --> 01:27:44,439
Speaker 1: of which the target fragmented but was not destroyed. In

1751
01:27:44,840 --> 01:27:47,679
Speaker 1: that same article from the Washington Post, they also had

1752
01:27:47,840 --> 01:27:51,439
Speaker 1: another piece of significant news, which is that the IDF

1753
01:27:51,720 --> 01:27:55,760
Speaker 1: is now actually admitting that it was their ice airstrikes

1754
01:27:55,920 --> 01:28:00,240
Speaker 1: that killed three different Hostriges back in November. This is

1755
01:28:00,320 --> 01:28:03,400
Speaker 1: something that had been long suspected, but now long after

1756
01:28:03,479 --> 01:28:06,719
Speaker 1: the fact, they're finally acknowledging that this is actually the case.

1757
01:28:06,840 --> 01:28:10,120
Speaker 1: But Soccer with regard to the you know, the Hoothi's

1758
01:28:10,200 --> 01:28:13,439
Speaker 1: really trying to up the ante here and demonstrating some

1759
01:28:13,600 --> 01:28:18,680
Speaker 1: more sophisticated weaponry. Obviously, this raises the stakes or for

1760
01:28:18,920 --> 01:28:21,920
Speaker 1: Israel in terms of their prosecution of this continued war.

1761
01:28:22,320 --> 01:28:23,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is scary.

1762
01:28:23,200 --> 01:28:25,439
Speaker 2: I mean, look, I don't know whether it was actually

1763
01:28:25,600 --> 01:28:29,000
Speaker 2: hypersonic or any of that. I don't know the actual

1764
01:28:29,080 --> 01:28:33,400
Speaker 2: technical details, but you should not dismiss this as deeply

1765
01:28:33,600 --> 01:28:36,320
Speaker 2: unstable in the system, because what it means is that

1766
01:28:36,400 --> 01:28:39,600
Speaker 2: they have a much more important capability that may not

1767
01:28:39,720 --> 01:28:42,680
Speaker 2: be as easily defeated by even the United States or

1768
01:28:42,720 --> 01:28:45,560
Speaker 2: all the other countries that intervened last time around, and

1769
01:28:45,720 --> 01:28:48,240
Speaker 2: that if they wanted, they could quite easily use it

1770
01:28:48,600 --> 01:28:51,240
Speaker 2: to inflict a lot more damage than we've seen previously.

1771
01:28:51,280 --> 01:28:53,280
Speaker 2: I attracked a lot of this stuff during North Korea

1772
01:28:53,680 --> 01:28:57,360
Speaker 2: and the development of their own nuclear missiles and their

1773
01:28:57,640 --> 01:29:00,760
Speaker 2: ICBMs capable of hitting the United States and everyone. You know,

1774
01:29:00,880 --> 01:29:02,960
Speaker 2: there's constantly just a want to just be like, oh,

1775
01:29:03,040 --> 01:29:04,320
Speaker 2: it's not that big of a deal, and it's like,

1776
01:29:04,360 --> 01:29:07,640
Speaker 2: you don't understand how what this really means for the

1777
01:29:07,680 --> 01:29:11,080
Speaker 2: overall strategic picture. Part of why you know, accepting and

1778
01:29:11,280 --> 01:29:14,679
Speaker 2: trying to create a piece negotiation with them was so important.

1779
01:29:14,760 --> 01:29:17,240
Speaker 2: And that's what I see as a vital here is

1780
01:29:17,360 --> 01:29:20,360
Speaker 2: that this really does actually change the game, not only

1781
01:29:20,360 --> 01:29:23,120
Speaker 2: in terms of US assets in the region and our

1782
01:29:23,200 --> 01:29:25,360
Speaker 2: own even ability to you know, fight something like this

1783
01:29:25,479 --> 01:29:28,160
Speaker 2: where we've bonded them several times, we've had spend billions

1784
01:29:28,240 --> 01:29:29,320
Speaker 2: of dollars trying to stop this.

1785
01:29:29,479 --> 01:29:31,559
Speaker 3: It hasn't actually worked all that well.

1786
01:29:31,680 --> 01:29:33,360
Speaker 2: And then for Israel itself, you know, look at a

1787
01:29:33,400 --> 01:29:37,840
Speaker 2: certain hopefully eventually they will become responsible entirely for their

1788
01:29:37,880 --> 01:29:41,400
Speaker 2: own security, and if they do, this is exactly what

1789
01:29:41,520 --> 01:29:44,120
Speaker 2: would pose like real existential threats to them.

1790
01:29:44,880 --> 01:29:47,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, and the Houthis went on their way to say, hey,

1791
01:29:47,120 --> 01:29:49,680
Speaker 1: we have the technology to be able to evade your

1792
01:29:49,840 --> 01:29:53,800
Speaker 1: iron dome interceptors. So this, you know, sense that you're

1793
01:29:53,960 --> 01:29:57,479
Speaker 1: only able to inflict damage in one direction, we are

1794
01:29:57,560 --> 01:30:00,639
Speaker 1: going to put that at jeopardy and attempt to impose

1795
01:30:00,720 --> 01:30:04,960
Speaker 1: a greater cost on you and on your country. At

1796
01:30:04,960 --> 01:30:09,200
Speaker 1: the same time this has gone, you know, relatively unnoticed

1797
01:30:09,520 --> 01:30:12,240
Speaker 1: in the US press. But this is there are extraordinary

1798
01:30:12,280 --> 01:30:15,360
Speaker 1: developments in terms of the Israeli war cabinet and their

1799
01:30:16,040 --> 01:30:19,840
Speaker 1: stated clear desire to escalate the war in Lebanon. We

1800
01:30:19,880 --> 01:30:22,720
Speaker 1: could put this up on the screen. So Netanna, who

1801
01:30:22,760 --> 01:30:27,800
Speaker 1: is apparently considering strongly and reports indicate very likely to

1802
01:30:28,040 --> 01:30:33,360
Speaker 1: fire his defense chief Yoav Galant now and replace him

1803
01:30:33,439 --> 01:30:37,560
Speaker 1: with a more far right figure who has been vehemently

1804
01:30:37,800 --> 01:30:42,360
Speaker 1: opposed to any sort of a hostage deal. So you know,

1805
01:30:42,760 --> 01:30:48,520
Speaker 1: Yoev Glant is also facing likely international criminal court indictments.

1806
01:30:48,760 --> 01:30:51,240
Speaker 1: You know, he is also obviously a war criminal. He

1807
01:30:51,280 --> 01:30:54,719
Speaker 1: has said some absolutely heinous things about Palestinians, some criminal

1808
01:30:54,760 --> 01:30:57,040
Speaker 1: things about Palestinians, including you know, he's the one who

1809
01:30:57,160 --> 01:31:00,400
Speaker 1: announced we're gonna treat them like animals, We're going to

1810
01:31:00,479 --> 01:31:02,880
Speaker 1: cut off all the food, water, et cetera. But he

1811
01:31:03,080 --> 01:31:05,280
Speaker 1: has been a voice inside the cabinet that has been

1812
01:31:05,360 --> 01:31:07,920
Speaker 1: receptive to the idea of at least having a ceasefire

1813
01:31:08,040 --> 01:31:12,839
Speaker 1: and a hostage deal. So you have Gallant, reportedly, according

1814
01:31:12,880 --> 01:31:17,360
Speaker 1: to Harats, is at least somewhat opposed to a massive

1815
01:31:18,240 --> 01:31:21,960
Speaker 1: widening of the war into Lebanon and a huge escalation

1816
01:31:22,160 --> 01:31:25,760
Speaker 1: there vis a vi Hezbola, and that appears to be

1817
01:31:25,920 --> 01:31:30,320
Speaker 1: the triggering descent that is leading net Yahoo to consider

1818
01:31:30,600 --> 01:31:34,760
Speaker 1: firing him and just wholly embracing and publicly embracing this

1819
01:31:35,200 --> 01:31:38,800
Speaker 1: further right figure who again called a hostage deal quote surrender.

1820
01:31:40,439 --> 01:31:44,759
Speaker 1: There's a hostage pro hostage group that said that appointing

1821
01:31:44,800 --> 01:31:48,200
Speaker 1: this far right figure would represent a quote death sentence

1822
01:31:48,280 --> 01:31:52,720
Speaker 1: for the hostages and a complete abandonment of those in captivity.

1823
01:31:52,760 --> 01:31:54,600
Speaker 1: And let me put this one next piece up on

1824
01:31:54,640 --> 01:31:57,120
Speaker 1: the screen before I get your reaction, saga. This is

1825
01:31:57,160 --> 01:31:59,920
Speaker 1: from the New York Times. Well, sorry, this is harat,

1826
01:32:01,040 --> 01:32:04,200
Speaker 1: but the New York Times also had this reporting that,

1827
01:32:04,680 --> 01:32:06,840
Speaker 1: you know, the US is meeting with Gallant, meeting with

1828
01:32:07,479 --> 01:32:09,439
Speaker 1: net Yahoo, and they're saying, hey, we don't want this

1829
01:32:09,520 --> 01:32:11,559
Speaker 1: wider war in Lebanon. Guys, don't do it, we don't

1830
01:32:11,600 --> 01:32:13,519
Speaker 1: want you to do it, et cetera, et cetera. And

1831
01:32:13,640 --> 01:32:15,960
Speaker 1: net Yahu was just like, no, we're going to do it.

1832
01:32:16,040 --> 01:32:18,120
Speaker 1: We're going to do whatever it takes. He wants to

1833
01:32:18,240 --> 01:32:23,360
Speaker 1: officially expand the war goals to include this, you know,

1834
01:32:23,600 --> 01:32:26,720
Speaker 1: escalation viz a vi Lebanon. So once again, you know,

1835
01:32:26,840 --> 01:32:29,360
Speaker 1: similar to the Ukraine situation, we see a conflict we're

1836
01:32:29,400 --> 01:32:32,120
Speaker 1: directly engaged in that we're funding, that we're arming, et cetera,

1837
01:32:32,600 --> 01:32:36,719
Speaker 1: that is spiraling in escalatory directions that the US President

1838
01:32:36,800 --> 01:32:40,559
Speaker 1: is supposedly opposed to but utterly unwilling to do anything

1839
01:32:40,760 --> 01:32:42,960
Speaker 1: to forestall this very dangerous direction.

1840
01:32:43,479 --> 01:32:45,920
Speaker 2: It is a problem, and it is exactly I mean,

1841
01:32:45,960 --> 01:32:47,840
Speaker 2: this is what we take our eye off the ball,

1842
01:32:47,920 --> 01:32:50,280
Speaker 2: and there's still crazy developments that are happening. You know,

1843
01:32:50,520 --> 01:32:53,000
Speaker 2: there were not that far away from the anniversary of

1844
01:32:53,040 --> 01:32:56,520
Speaker 2: October seventh, and everything that's happened there and the instability

1845
01:32:56,560 --> 01:32:59,559
Speaker 2: inside the Israeli cabinet have major effects for all of us.

1846
01:32:59,720 --> 01:33:01,720
Speaker 2: All so none of the political leaders that we have

1847
01:33:02,080 --> 01:33:06,120
Speaker 2: are really all of that like concerned about constraining any

1848
01:33:06,160 --> 01:33:08,360
Speaker 2: of this. And so in both cases, you know, we

1849
01:33:08,439 --> 01:33:12,360
Speaker 2: either have one party or the other who is default

1850
01:33:12,880 --> 01:33:17,080
Speaker 2: allowing things like this that cannot go. You can't put

1851
01:33:17,120 --> 01:33:19,080
Speaker 2: it all back in the box. And we're seeing one

1852
01:33:19,120 --> 01:33:21,160
Speaker 2: of our producers just send us a story this morning.

1853
01:33:21,479 --> 01:33:26,400
Speaker 2: It appears there was some major Israeli operation against a

1854
01:33:26,400 --> 01:33:30,120
Speaker 2: bunch of Hezbola terrorists inside of Lesbanon or appears. I

1855
01:33:30,160 --> 01:33:32,559
Speaker 2: think it looks like they're pagers exploded. I mean it's

1856
01:33:32,600 --> 01:33:35,360
Speaker 2: literally like something out of science fiction. That's what I'm

1857
01:33:35,360 --> 01:33:36,720
Speaker 2: just taking a look at. So don't have all of

1858
01:33:36,760 --> 01:33:40,439
Speaker 2: the details. The point though, is that stuff like this

1859
01:33:40,560 --> 01:33:44,920
Speaker 2: inside of Lebanon just continues the spiral and the only

1860
01:33:45,040 --> 01:33:47,240
Speaker 2: question is is like how much of the cost of

1861
01:33:47,360 --> 01:33:48,840
Speaker 2: this are we going to bear? And we generally know

1862
01:33:48,920 --> 01:33:51,240
Speaker 2: the answer to that almost one hundred percent, almost one

1863
01:33:51,320 --> 01:33:52,000
Speaker 2: hundred percent.

1864
01:33:52,160 --> 01:33:52,920
Speaker 4: That we will pring for.

1865
01:33:53,520 --> 01:33:55,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, we're coming up on almost a year here,

1866
01:33:56,120 --> 01:34:01,400
Speaker 1: and no one's even really talking about US fire deal anymore.

1867
01:34:01,880 --> 01:34:06,080
Speaker 1: It's just collapses off the table. And there was maybe

1868
01:34:06,240 --> 01:34:08,400
Speaker 1: a week or so ago there were these reports about

1869
01:34:08,439 --> 01:34:11,400
Speaker 1: there was some debate within the Biden administration like should

1870
01:34:11,400 --> 01:34:13,639
Speaker 1: we still keep trying with the ceasefire deal or should

1871
01:34:13,640 --> 01:34:17,040
Speaker 1: we just basically like give up because bb very clearly

1872
01:34:17,200 --> 01:34:22,120
Speaker 1: does not want a ceasefire deal and the whole thing

1873
01:34:22,240 --> 01:34:26,479
Speaker 1: is so utterly absurd and pathetic, Like if you are

1874
01:34:26,560 --> 01:34:29,400
Speaker 1: the United States of America, you are the American president,

1875
01:34:29,520 --> 01:34:32,080
Speaker 1: if you want a ceasefire deal, like all you have

1876
01:34:32,240 --> 01:34:34,640
Speaker 1: to do is stop shipping the bombs that enable this

1877
01:34:34,760 --> 01:34:39,640
Speaker 1: continued direction. So instead of that, they're just putting it

1878
01:34:39,800 --> 01:34:43,519
Speaker 1: again on autopilot, where we're just continue to ship bombs

1879
01:34:43,560 --> 01:34:47,439
Speaker 1: that are used to slaughter, annihilate, and destroy with ever

1880
01:34:47,880 --> 01:34:51,360
Speaker 1: broadening horizons. You know, there have been multiple threats that

1881
01:34:51,439 --> 01:34:54,200
Speaker 1: Bay Root's going to be turned into Gaza throughout the

1882
01:34:54,240 --> 01:34:58,320
Speaker 1: course of this war, and we're unwilling to change course

1883
01:34:58,439 --> 01:35:01,560
Speaker 1: or do anything stop this slide in this direction. And

1884
01:35:01,960 --> 01:35:04,080
Speaker 1: you know, it is horrifying on a moral dimension, it's

1885
01:35:04,200 --> 01:35:06,559
Speaker 1: terrifying on a just national security dimension.

1886
01:35:06,840 --> 01:35:08,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, very true. All right, we got a good guest

1887
01:35:08,960 --> 01:35:10,240
Speaker 3: standing by let's get to it.

1888
01:35:10,439 --> 01:35:12,799
Speaker 1: We're excited to be joined this morning by Logan Phillips.

1889
01:35:13,000 --> 01:35:15,559
Speaker 1: He is the founder of Race to the White House,

1890
01:35:15,560 --> 01:35:18,679
Speaker 1: which is an electoral prediction model. Great to see you, Logan,

1891
01:35:19,000 --> 01:35:19,720
Speaker 1: Good to see you, man.

1892
01:35:20,200 --> 01:35:21,880
Speaker 6: Hey, great to see you guys too. Thanks for having

1893
01:35:21,920 --> 01:35:22,080
Speaker 6: me on.

1894
01:35:22,680 --> 01:35:24,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, of course, so first time on the show.

1895
01:35:24,360 --> 01:35:25,800
Speaker 1: Just give people a little bit of a sense of

1896
01:35:26,040 --> 01:35:28,640
Speaker 1: who you are and how this model is designed and

1897
01:35:28,680 --> 01:35:29,360
Speaker 1: how it functions.

1898
01:35:30,560 --> 01:35:33,280
Speaker 11: Yeah, So I forecast elections for Race to the White

1899
01:35:33,320 --> 01:35:37,040
Speaker 11: House and track pulling for every major federal race in

1900
01:35:37,080 --> 01:35:39,799
Speaker 11: the country, and the goal of my site in addition

1901
01:35:39,880 --> 01:35:43,000
Speaker 11: to ideally getting these predictions right, is to help make

1902
01:35:43,040 --> 01:35:44,800
Speaker 11: sense of the chaos and make it as easy for

1903
01:35:44,840 --> 01:35:47,200
Speaker 11: people to understand which races are the most competitive and

1904
01:35:47,240 --> 01:35:50,400
Speaker 11: in the presidential race, which states are most likely to

1905
01:35:50,479 --> 01:35:53,680
Speaker 11: determine the outcome. And so my goal is to make

1906
01:35:53,760 --> 01:35:55,519
Speaker 11: it so anyone who comes to the site for the

1907
01:35:55,560 --> 01:35:58,320
Speaker 11: first time within thirty or seconds or so, have a

1908
01:35:58,439 --> 01:35:59,559
Speaker 11: much better sense of.

1909
01:36:01,240 --> 01:36:05,479
Speaker 6: This central factors are going to determine the race.

1910
01:36:06,040 --> 01:36:07,880
Speaker 1: So let's go ahead and put up on the screen

1911
01:36:08,120 --> 01:36:10,880
Speaker 1: the graphic of where things stand right now in terms

1912
01:36:11,080 --> 01:36:14,080
Speaker 1: of the electoral college. Your prediction is that there is

1913
01:36:14,120 --> 01:36:16,519
Speaker 1: a fifty six point nine percent chance the Kamala wins

1914
01:36:16,560 --> 01:36:19,360
Speaker 1: the forty two point eight percent chance that Trump wins.

1915
01:36:19,720 --> 01:36:21,880
Speaker 1: Those are still pretty good odds for Trump, even with

1916
01:36:22,240 --> 01:36:25,639
Speaker 1: Kamala somewhat favored there. And you've got projected electoral votes

1917
01:36:25,680 --> 01:36:28,519
Speaker 1: Kamala at two point eighty four point four and Trump

1918
01:36:28,640 --> 01:36:32,200
Speaker 1: at two fifty three point six. How should we think

1919
01:36:32,320 --> 01:36:36,200
Speaker 1: about those odds and what are some of the factors

1920
01:36:36,560 --> 01:36:39,280
Speaker 1: that are leading your model to give Kamala a bit

1921
01:36:39,360 --> 01:36:39,960
Speaker 1: of an edge here?

1922
01:36:41,280 --> 01:36:43,200
Speaker 11: Yeah, I would say that basically means it's a toss

1923
01:36:43,240 --> 01:36:46,160
Speaker 11: of the problem here is that we have two different factors.

1924
01:36:46,240 --> 01:36:46,360
Speaker 6: Right.

1925
01:36:46,600 --> 01:36:48,840
Speaker 11: We have the national polling, which is pretty competitive, and

1926
01:36:48,880 --> 01:36:51,720
Speaker 11: would say maybe up until about a few days ago

1927
01:36:51,760 --> 01:36:53,800
Speaker 11: when Kamala got a little bit of post debate bounced

1928
01:36:53,840 --> 01:36:55,840
Speaker 11: that Donald Trump would be favored if we look at

1929
01:36:55,920 --> 01:36:58,200
Speaker 11: what happened in the twenty twenty electoral map, which was

1930
01:36:58,560 --> 01:37:01,360
Speaker 11: heavily biased to Republicans in terms of the electoral college.

1931
01:37:02,080 --> 01:37:04,360
Speaker 11: But then the state poles for Kamala Harris have been

1932
01:37:04,920 --> 01:37:08,919
Speaker 11: really really strong. You know, in some states like Michigan, Wisconsin,

1933
01:37:09,040 --> 01:37:10,880
Speaker 11: she's usually been doing better in the state poles than

1934
01:37:10,880 --> 01:37:11,920
Speaker 11: even the national polls.

1935
01:37:12,400 --> 01:37:14,120
Speaker 6: And so the question here is which is real.

1936
01:37:14,280 --> 01:37:17,280
Speaker 11: Has Kamala really is doing that much better than Joe

1937
01:37:17,320 --> 01:37:19,640
Speaker 11: Biden to the point that the electoral college disadvantage is

1938
01:37:19,680 --> 01:37:21,960
Speaker 11: significantly smaller, And if that's the case, then she is

1939
01:37:22,000 --> 01:37:22,880
Speaker 11: outright favorite to win.

1940
01:37:23,600 --> 01:37:24,840
Speaker 6: And I think because you have.

1941
01:37:26,320 --> 01:37:28,600
Speaker 11: That disparity, it's probably part of the reason why some

1942
01:37:28,760 --> 01:37:32,080
Speaker 11: models like Nate Silver's show Donald Trump favored, because they're

1943
01:37:32,120 --> 01:37:34,880
Speaker 11: probably assuming a lot more about the twenty twenty electoral

1944
01:37:34,960 --> 01:37:38,000
Speaker 11: map still being in place. But this is definitely a

1945
01:37:38,000 --> 01:37:40,960
Speaker 11: really close election. Now Harris will at least in my model,

1946
01:37:41,240 --> 01:37:43,519
Speaker 11: start to edge ahead if she has the same type

1947
01:37:43,520 --> 01:37:46,040
Speaker 11: of bounce in the state poles that we're seeing in

1948
01:37:46,040 --> 01:37:48,120
Speaker 11: the national polls. There's just been a real dirf of

1949
01:37:48,200 --> 01:37:52,200
Speaker 11: pulling outside of some GOP aligned pollsters since the debate.

1950
01:37:52,439 --> 01:37:54,639
Speaker 2: So logan, give us a sense of you were talking

1951
01:37:54,680 --> 01:37:57,160
Speaker 2: there about the difference between you and Nate Silver. A

1952
01:37:57,200 --> 01:38:00,200
Speaker 2: lot of people obviously wonder about the individual mechanics. As

1953
01:38:00,240 --> 01:38:03,400
Speaker 2: close as you can to relatable speak. Just give us

1954
01:38:03,439 --> 01:38:07,840
Speaker 2: a sense of what the differences and the factors that

1955
01:38:07,960 --> 01:38:11,240
Speaker 2: you look at that can help people assess whenever the

1956
01:38:11,360 --> 01:38:13,680
Speaker 2: looking let's say your model at a different model, what

1957
01:38:13,760 --> 01:38:16,800
Speaker 2: are the types of things that you wait, how much

1958
01:38:16,880 --> 01:38:17,519
Speaker 2: weight to give them?

1959
01:38:17,600 --> 01:38:19,320
Speaker 3: And give us your overall thought process.

1960
01:38:20,320 --> 01:38:22,040
Speaker 11: Yeah, so I think across the board from was all

1961
01:38:22,080 --> 01:38:25,000
Speaker 11: of our models, there's a few different things it does.

1962
01:38:25,120 --> 01:38:25,240
Speaker 6: Right.

1963
01:38:25,320 --> 01:38:27,680
Speaker 11: First, you try to assess what the national environment is,

1964
01:38:28,360 --> 01:38:30,839
Speaker 11: and for me, I use polling, I use the economy.

1965
01:38:30,920 --> 01:38:33,080
Speaker 11: Those are by far the two most important. I also

1966
01:38:33,160 --> 01:38:35,519
Speaker 11: look at how special elections have been going lately, on

1967
01:38:35,640 --> 01:38:38,760
Speaker 11: which party has been overperforming expectations, and a tiny like

1968
01:38:38,840 --> 01:38:41,640
Speaker 11: one percent of it is fundraising. And after we have

1969
01:38:41,720 --> 01:38:43,519
Speaker 11: a sense of what the national environment is. We try

1970
01:38:43,520 --> 01:38:45,360
Speaker 11: to turn that into state numbers, right, So we look

1971
01:38:45,400 --> 01:38:48,600
Speaker 11: at how states have voted in recent elections relative to

1972
01:38:48,680 --> 01:38:51,320
Speaker 11: the popular vote. So if it's been a little bit

1973
01:38:51,360 --> 01:38:52,960
Speaker 11: to the left, a little bit to the right, you'd assume,

1974
01:38:53,040 --> 01:38:55,400
Speaker 11: like if it's a state that's two points to the left,

1975
01:38:55,680 --> 01:38:58,519
Speaker 11: Democrats are up by four Nationally they vote for Harris

1976
01:38:58,600 --> 01:39:01,560
Speaker 11: by six points. Bind that with the state poles to

1977
01:39:01,600 --> 01:39:04,080
Speaker 11: give an overall projection for each state. And then the

1978
01:39:04,160 --> 01:39:06,000
Speaker 11: final component, which I think is honestly one of the

1979
01:39:06,080 --> 01:39:08,240
Speaker 11: most important, is you try to figure out how likely

1980
01:39:08,280 --> 01:39:10,200
Speaker 11: are you to be wrong in every state? Right, So

1981
01:39:10,560 --> 01:39:13,479
Speaker 11: that's based off of like the information we have and

1982
01:39:13,560 --> 01:39:16,240
Speaker 11: how far away we are from election day, how often

1983
01:39:16,280 --> 01:39:17,360
Speaker 11: average would the model be.

1984
01:39:17,640 --> 01:39:19,800
Speaker 6: And to do that you got to look at electoral history.

1985
01:39:19,880 --> 01:39:21,920
Speaker 11: For me, I look at like every election since the

1986
01:39:22,040 --> 01:39:25,680
Speaker 11: nineteen sixties, and that helps us get a sense of

1987
01:39:25,760 --> 01:39:29,240
Speaker 11: the chance of an upset. And then the final additional

1988
01:39:29,280 --> 01:39:31,600
Speaker 11: part after you project the lead for each state, is

1989
01:39:31,720 --> 01:39:36,360
Speaker 11: you then simulate all the states together to figure out

1990
01:39:36,360 --> 01:39:41,080
Speaker 11: what the chance Kamala and Trump have nationwide. And so

1991
01:39:41,200 --> 01:39:43,120
Speaker 11: you have to see, like some you know, if you

1992
01:39:43,200 --> 01:39:45,160
Speaker 11: over perform in Michigan, You're probably going to overperform in

1993
01:39:45,200 --> 01:39:48,479
Speaker 11: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin too, So you try to calculate how

1994
01:39:48,520 --> 01:39:50,040
Speaker 11: correlated each state is as well.

1995
01:39:50,960 --> 01:39:54,519
Speaker 1: How are you thinking about a potential polling miss so

1996
01:39:54,960 --> 01:40:01,640
Speaker 1: you know, twenty sixteen, Trump support is understated, support is understated.

1997
01:40:01,800 --> 01:40:06,720
Speaker 1: Twenty twenty two, Republican support is overstated. You have a

1998
01:40:06,760 --> 01:40:11,160
Speaker 1: special elections. It seemed like Democratic support was understated. So

1999
01:40:11,880 --> 01:40:13,439
Speaker 1: you know, just looking at the track record as a

2000
01:40:13,479 --> 01:40:14,840
Speaker 1: lay person, it seems like you got a lot of

2001
01:40:14,880 --> 01:40:18,360
Speaker 1: contradictory indications. How are you thinking about that in terms

2002
01:40:18,400 --> 01:40:19,599
Speaker 1: of your statistical modeling.

2003
01:40:20,600 --> 01:40:21,880
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's such a great question.

2004
01:40:22,080 --> 01:40:24,040
Speaker 11: It's very easy to fall into the trap after twenty

2005
01:40:24,120 --> 01:40:26,160
Speaker 11: twenty and twenty sixteen to just assume it's going to

2006
01:40:26,960 --> 01:40:29,680
Speaker 11: go against Donald Trump. I think that's what RCP did

2007
01:40:29,720 --> 01:40:31,439
Speaker 11: to a degree in twenty twenty two, and it really

2008
01:40:31,520 --> 01:40:34,559
Speaker 11: backfired for them because the reality is that past polling

2009
01:40:34,600 --> 01:40:38,760
Speaker 11: misses aren't usually predictive directionally of future polling misses. But

2010
01:40:38,840 --> 01:40:40,720
Speaker 11: I do think it's fair to say after twenty twenty

2011
01:40:40,800 --> 01:40:43,880
Speaker 11: and twenty sixteen, which you know, we're both really bad

2012
01:40:43,920 --> 01:40:46,960
Speaker 11: misses for presidential polls, especially twenty twenty, that we can

2013
01:40:47,040 --> 01:40:49,960
Speaker 11: have a little more inserting than we would normally. Polling

2014
01:40:50,040 --> 01:40:52,240
Speaker 11: is way harder than it used to be. The response

2015
01:40:52,320 --> 01:40:55,719
Speaker 11: rate for polls that are calling people is drastically lower,

2016
01:40:56,080 --> 01:40:58,160
Speaker 11: and it makes basic sense for all of us, right

2017
01:40:58,200 --> 01:41:00,639
Speaker 11: because if you're getting a phone call from and to number,

2018
01:41:01,040 --> 01:41:02,560
Speaker 11: more often than not it's going to be someone not

2019
01:41:02,600 --> 01:41:04,599
Speaker 11: even trying to sell you something, but trying to scam

2020
01:41:04,720 --> 01:41:08,920
Speaker 11: you into something. And so as a result, pollsters have

2021
01:41:09,040 --> 01:41:11,519
Speaker 11: to find new and creative ways to reach vhoters. Sometimes

2022
01:41:11,560 --> 01:41:13,479
Speaker 11: they're doing online polls, that's a huge part of how

2023
01:41:13,560 --> 01:41:16,760
Speaker 11: polls work now. Sometimes they're text poles, but overall they're

2024
01:41:16,800 --> 01:41:19,280
Speaker 11: still kind of figuring out how to adjust to the

2025
01:41:19,360 --> 01:41:23,120
Speaker 11: new world. So for my models, I increase the uncertainty

2026
01:41:23,200 --> 01:41:25,320
Speaker 11: quite a bit. I think that the odds of a

2027
01:41:25,400 --> 01:41:27,880
Speaker 11: miss are higher right now, but I'm not going to

2028
01:41:27,920 --> 01:41:30,040
Speaker 11: say that it's necessarily going to go four against Trump.

2029
01:41:30,120 --> 01:41:33,000
Speaker 11: I mean there's also capitalist incentives here, right. Pollster's goal

2030
01:41:33,840 --> 01:41:36,240
Speaker 11: is to make money, is to get as accurate as

2031
01:41:36,320 --> 01:41:39,000
Speaker 11: possible by make more money. If they do well on

2032
01:41:39,040 --> 01:41:41,600
Speaker 11: that front, the whole industry will be badly off and

2033
01:41:41,680 --> 01:41:43,160
Speaker 11: have a lot less trust in them if they underrate

2034
01:41:43,200 --> 01:41:46,200
Speaker 11: Trump specifically. So on one hand, they couldn't miss them

2035
01:41:46,200 --> 01:41:47,600
Speaker 11: because they've done it before. On the other hand, they

2036
01:41:47,600 --> 01:41:48,559
Speaker 11: could overcorrect too.

2037
01:41:48,840 --> 01:41:51,760
Speaker 2: Right, So factoring in twenty twenty two, like you were

2038
01:41:51,840 --> 01:41:54,679
Speaker 2: just talking about, what were the what was the mistake

2039
01:41:54,840 --> 01:41:57,040
Speaker 2: that pollsters made because a lot of people forget you know,

2040
01:41:57,520 --> 01:41:59,920
Speaker 2: after twenty sixteen, there was a lot of discussion about

2041
01:42:00,200 --> 01:42:02,840
Speaker 2: not pulling up white collar workers, white working class workers

2042
01:42:02,840 --> 01:42:07,000
Speaker 2: specifically after twenty twenty. I believe the excuse was that

2043
01:42:07,120 --> 01:42:10,480
Speaker 2: there were too many older Democrats at home. They were responding.

2044
01:42:10,560 --> 01:42:13,840
Speaker 2: It was like a polling response bias. Twenty twenty two.

2045
01:42:13,920 --> 01:42:17,600
Speaker 2: I haven't heard a particularly good actual analysis of what

2046
01:42:17,720 --> 01:42:19,519
Speaker 2: went wrong. So what in your opinion, what is what

2047
01:42:19,720 --> 01:42:20,960
Speaker 2: wrong with the polls for there?

2048
01:42:21,479 --> 01:42:23,400
Speaker 11: Well, I would just say, you know, in fantis to polsters,

2049
01:42:23,400 --> 01:42:25,000
Speaker 11: twenty twenty two is a pretty good year for them.

2050
01:42:25,400 --> 01:42:27,559
Speaker 11: There's usually going to be a bias against one party

2051
01:42:27,680 --> 01:42:29,800
Speaker 11: or the other, and that year was against Democrats.

2052
01:42:30,040 --> 01:42:31,320
Speaker 6: But overall they were pretty good.

2053
01:42:31,960 --> 01:42:36,120
Speaker 11: They lightly underrated youth turnout, and honestly, my gut feeling

2054
01:42:36,200 --> 01:42:38,120
Speaker 11: is that overall they all had to make corrections. After

2055
01:42:38,160 --> 01:42:40,439
Speaker 11: the last two presidential cycles, and they may have overdone

2056
01:42:40,479 --> 01:42:42,200
Speaker 11: it a little bit just because it was in their

2057
01:42:42,240 --> 01:42:46,200
Speaker 11: incentives to not under great Republicans again, but it was

2058
01:42:46,200 --> 01:42:47,240
Speaker 11: still pretty good year for them.

2059
01:42:47,439 --> 01:42:49,800
Speaker 1: Okay, what do you make of this is something I

2060
01:42:49,920 --> 01:42:53,040
Speaker 1: hear from like the resistance Libs, right, which you know,

2061
01:42:53,200 --> 01:42:55,160
Speaker 1: sometimes they have a point, so we like to take

2062
01:42:55,160 --> 01:42:57,880
Speaker 1: them seriously. They're making a good argument that there's been

2063
01:42:57,920 --> 01:43:02,280
Speaker 1: an influx of these Republicans aligned polsters who are more

2064
01:43:02,479 --> 01:43:07,519
Speaker 1: interested in their capitalist incentive. We may say is more

2065
01:43:07,680 --> 01:43:11,880
Speaker 1: about setting a pro Republican narrative than it is about

2066
01:43:12,040 --> 01:43:15,840
Speaker 1: being wholly accurate. And you know, so for people who

2067
01:43:15,880 --> 01:43:18,800
Speaker 1: want to discount and eat Silver's model, looking at you know,

2068
01:43:18,880 --> 01:43:21,120
Speaker 1: which has Donald Trump still favors, kind of like the

2069
01:43:21,160 --> 01:43:23,600
Speaker 1: inverse of where your model sits. That's one of the

2070
01:43:23,680 --> 01:43:26,679
Speaker 1: things that they'll point to is that he takes those

2071
01:43:27,040 --> 01:43:30,599
Speaker 1: that flood of GOP aligned polls sort of too seriously

2072
01:43:30,720 --> 01:43:31,799
Speaker 1: in terms of his modeling.

2073
01:43:33,560 --> 01:43:35,240
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's it's a huge concern.

2074
01:43:35,320 --> 01:43:36,760
Speaker 11: In twenty twenty two, I had to call a bit

2075
01:43:36,800 --> 01:43:39,799
Speaker 11: of an audible and start increasing the penalty to partisan

2076
01:43:39,840 --> 01:43:42,479
Speaker 11: posters once they really started to flood the average. There's

2077
01:43:42,479 --> 01:43:44,360
Speaker 11: a lot more polls for the presidential SOULCI if it

2078
01:43:44,400 --> 01:43:46,519
Speaker 11: gets at that point. That's certainly been the case lately

2079
01:43:46,880 --> 01:43:48,760
Speaker 11: in the post debate state poles because they say be

2080
01:43:48,800 --> 01:43:51,280
Speaker 11: the only ones releasing pols. I would say for all

2081
01:43:51,320 --> 01:43:56,040
Speaker 11: these polsters, as with anyone has power influence, right, you

2082
01:43:56,160 --> 01:43:58,160
Speaker 11: got to think about what their incentives are, and just

2083
01:43:58,240 --> 01:43:59,920
Speaker 11: like you said, right, their goal is to try to

2084
01:44:00,080 --> 01:44:02,439
Speaker 11: change the narrat If that's true for any internal poll.

2085
01:44:03,080 --> 01:44:05,600
Speaker 11: No campaign is going to release a poll just for

2086
01:44:05,680 --> 01:44:07,040
Speaker 11: the heck of it. If they have a poll that

2087
01:44:07,320 --> 01:44:09,599
Speaker 11: it's a Democratic line polster that's showing them way worse

2088
01:44:09,640 --> 01:44:12,000
Speaker 11: than everyone else, maybe the race closer than everyone else,

2089
01:44:12,200 --> 01:44:14,240
Speaker 11: it might be using it for fundraising purposes, and then

2090
01:44:14,240 --> 01:44:15,760
Speaker 11: they just put it out there publicly so they can

2091
01:44:15,800 --> 01:44:18,040
Speaker 11: cite it in ads. Right, there's usually going to be

2092
01:44:18,080 --> 01:44:18,920
Speaker 11: some type of agenda.

2093
01:44:20,120 --> 01:44:22,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I really enjoy talking to you, Logan. Thanks

2094
01:44:22,520 --> 01:44:24,439
Speaker 2: for coming on man, and we'll continue to check out

2095
01:44:24,439 --> 01:44:24,960
Speaker 2: your website.

2096
01:44:25,360 --> 01:44:28,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, great to meet you, Legan, our pleasure.

2097
01:44:28,120 --> 01:44:28,400
Speaker 6: Thanks me.

2098
01:44:29,040 --> 01:44:30,880
Speaker 2: All right, guys, we'll see you later about to film

2099
01:44:30,920 --> 01:44:33,360
Speaker 2: our AMA and broadcast it live. So if you want

2100
01:44:33,400 --> 01:44:35,519
Speaker 2: to be able to join things like that, Breakingpoints Dot

2101
01:44:35,560 --> 01:44:38,360
Speaker 2: com from premium subscribers, Otherwise, we'll see you all later.