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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 1: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 3: Good morning, and welcome to Washington, d C. Now occupied territory.

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Speaker 3: Democratic Socials of America swept elections last night.

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Speaker 4: Well, I guess it's bifurcated packing bags occupied by the

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Speaker 4: federal government and DSA at the same time, it's an

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Speaker 4: ambitious crossover.

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Speaker 3: Friend of the show, Janise Lewis George, on her way

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Speaker 3: to becoming mayor. Trump has said that if she won

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Speaker 3: the primary, he's going to take the city over.

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Speaker 5: Forget the general, just the primary. Won the primary, so.

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Speaker 6: Maybe he can take care of the LG first the

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Speaker 6: reflection part.

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Speaker 5: I think we're safe. Then we'll see that Algae's not

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Speaker 5: going anywhere.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna we're gonna talk about the latest developments as

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Speaker 3: we march towards the Geneva signing of the MoU between

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Speaker 3: Iran and the United States. Bloomberg reported what they claimed

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Speaker 3: are the fourteen points. Our understanding is that they are

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Speaker 3: not there. Those are incorrect. However, we can go over

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Speaker 3: the parts that are missing and what it indicates. We're

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Speaker 3: going to have the good professor on Robert Pape.

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Speaker 6: Robert Pape, he's going to be here. Are we still

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Speaker 6: in the.

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Speaker 5: Escalations or where did we break out?

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Speaker 6: Or did we break out?

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Speaker 4: By Donald Trump unexpectedly embracing the L.

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Speaker 5: Apparently the model didn't account.

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Speaker 7: For the L.

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Speaker 4: We'll see, well, the model didn't count for the L.

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Speaker 4: Is just most presidents would escalate instead of taking the L.

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Speaker 3: All right, well, last, Professor Pape, we'll look at the

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Speaker 3: fallout in Israel, which is heading into an election for

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Speaker 3: prime minister. We're going to check in to see how

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Speaker 3: well how rationally people are taking it over there?

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Speaker 4: Right, yes, well, and here, of course from MSNBC all

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Speaker 4: the way to Tel Aviv, indeed, indeed, now go ahead.

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Speaker 5: Never mind. So there's.

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Speaker 3: The crackdown on dissent is sweeping across the country. So

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Speaker 3: not only do you have the Michigan protesters, you've got

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Speaker 3: some in Washington that were just recently convicted. You'd had

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Speaker 3: fifteen protesters in Minnesota charged with felonies for hurting the

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Speaker 3: feelings of ICE agents and CBP.

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Speaker 6: Oh, we're going to disagree on this.

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Speaker 5: That's will be fun, excellent, looking forward to that.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, that'll be good. Conspiracy to impede or obstruct.

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Speaker 3: And cause emotional disturbance, Yes, there's some of that.

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Speaker 4: We will agree on some things, no question about it.

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Speaker 4: But we have the indictment now that was just dropped yesterday,

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Speaker 4: so we will not charges weren't dropped, but the indictment

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Speaker 4: was unsealed yesterday, so we will go through the charges.

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Speaker 4: And huge new Epstein investigation dropped by The New York

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Speaker 4: Times that purports to tell us what happened in the

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Speaker 4: days leading up to Epstein's alleged suicide, which The New

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Speaker 4: York Times is treating like it's actually more credible based

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Speaker 4: on their investigation, the idea that Epstein did kill himself.

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Speaker 4: So lots of new details to get over to get

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Speaker 4: to go over in that block. Also, Vice President Vance

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Speaker 4: talked a little bit about why he sees himself as

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Speaker 4: an Epstein conspiracy theorist on where else but the View

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Speaker 4: last night.

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Speaker 6: So we do have a lot to get to. And

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Speaker 6: then another front of the show, Rocanna is going to

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Speaker 6: join us.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he'll be here with the APAC Tracker crew, and

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Speaker 3: they are revealing a pledge that if you sign the pledge,

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Speaker 3: they will take away your Red card.

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Speaker 5: So it's a get out of your red card.

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Speaker 3: So even if you took a whole bunch of Proisro

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Speaker 3: money in the past, if you sign this pledge, you

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Speaker 3: get the green card.

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Speaker 6: It's like Grover Norquist's pledge not to ever raise taxes.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, basically, now the left has.

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Speaker 3: Its own yeah uh on the right to actually exactly,

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Speaker 3: people everybody hates the card.

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Speaker 6: You see people on the right sometimes sharing the the APAC.

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Speaker 5: Tracker devastating the red is. You're like, wow, yeah, red

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Speaker 5: it's hard.

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Speaker 7: It's bad.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: So uh, it'll be Corey Archibald and Rocana later in

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Speaker 3: the program. But let's start with a run and let's

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Speaker 3: actually start with President Trump here. So the entire thing

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Speaker 3: was about this enriched uranium, right nuclear dust. Trump in

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Speaker 3: a press commerce yesterday said, you know what, Actually that's stuff.

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Speaker 3: It's like half a million bucks. You can get that

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Speaker 3: stuff anywhere. Let's roll let's roll a one here.

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Speaker 8: So the atomic energy you just reported that it was

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Speaker 8: one of the most devastating bombies said it was the

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Speaker 8: whole mountain collapsed on top of it, and frankly, to

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Speaker 8: go get it. Week, We're going to go get it.

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Speaker 8: But to go get it it's a big deal because

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Speaker 8: they say only China and US have the equipment where

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Speaker 8: you can even get the whole mountains collapse. Sometime we

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Speaker 8: have cameras on it. You could make the case why

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Speaker 8: you're even bothering because it's not really valuable. It's you know,

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Speaker 8: it's probably half imilion to know with, it's not very

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Speaker 8: valuable set, but I think psychologically we're one again.

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Speaker 3: You could make the case why even bother Yes, actually

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Speaker 3: watching how this unfolded the last several months, you could

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Speaker 3: right make a plausible case. One could One could, Oh,

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Speaker 3: only the Chinese have the bulldozers.

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Speaker 5: Now, as Jeremy ska.

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Speaker 3: Hill reported throughout the negotiation process, one of the things

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Speaker 3: that the Iranians were offering the entire time, if you remember,

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Speaker 3: was right now the stuff is covered with rubble, we

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Speaker 3: will agree to not.

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Speaker 5: Move remove the rubble during negotiations.

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Speaker 3: That appears to have shown up in the MoU as

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Speaker 3: the status quo, which I think is panicking some pro

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Speaker 3: Israel types. But the status quo, as Trump pointed out

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Speaker 3: and as the Iranians have acknowledged, is that he's right,

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Speaker 3: like the entire mountain did fall on it. So the

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Speaker 3: status quo is actually, if you don't want them to

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Speaker 3: have access to it, the status quo is that well.

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Speaker 4: Even actually the use of the words status quo is

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Speaker 4: one of the interesting things that shows up in the

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Speaker 4: memorandum of understanding that Bloomberg published yesterday. This is a

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Speaker 4: zero A lot to get to here ran now drop site.

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Speaker 4: You're saying is the drop side understanding is that this

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Speaker 4: is not accurate. Bloomberg updated the story as of this

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Speaker 4: morning to say Iranian media is saying this is not

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Speaker 4: accurate as well. But actually that point about the quote

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Speaker 4: status quo appears in the Bloomberg MoU that they published,

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Speaker 4: and you couldn't actually put into words more of a

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Speaker 4: loss for the Trump administration than literally going with in

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Speaker 4: this MoU this peace deal status quo.

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Speaker 5: It depends though, think about it.

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Speaker 3: If the status quo is that the nuclear dust is

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Speaker 3: completely inaccessible to Iran and Iran is promising not to

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Speaker 3: try to access it, isn't that what we want?

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Speaker 4: I mean, the war was started to completely change the

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Speaker 4: status quo, and.

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Speaker 5: So this happened last year. We're talking the twelve day war, right.

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Speaker 4: So to end with a piece still that literally uses

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Speaker 4: the words over multiple points in this fourteen point piece

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Speaker 4: still status quo, I mean that is and to then

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Speaker 4: try to frame this as a win for the United States,

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Speaker 4: is the administration obviously is doing right now Now we

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Speaker 4: don't know and Ryan Dropst has some reporting on this

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Speaker 4: or some understanding into this, insight into.

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Speaker 6: This, what is true and what is false?

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Speaker 4: Out of this it looks like a pretty it's probably

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Speaker 4: a pretty recent draft.

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Speaker 5: It's pretty recent, but it's missing.

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Speaker 3: I think what it's missing is the few things things

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Speaker 3: that Iran was able to extract as concessions for not

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Speaker 3: responding to net and Yahoo attacking Beirut. And the key

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Speaker 3: thing is in paragraph one we can put up a

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Speaker 3: zero again they paragraph one of the Azama Republic run

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Speaker 3: in the US, together with their allies, important declare, upon

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Speaker 3: the signing of this MoU an immediate and permanent end

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Speaker 3: to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, just for

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Speaker 3: the people who are not forgetting last time that included Lebanon,

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Speaker 3: and undertake that from now on they will not launch

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Speaker 3: any hostile action against each other and will refrain from

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Speaker 3: the threat or use of force against each other. Our

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Speaker 3: understanding and Onwatch media also reported this, which has very

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Speaker 3: good sources inside the Iranian government as well, is that

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Speaker 3: what they added was that the territorial integrity and sovereignty

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Speaker 3: of Lebanon will be protected. And what that means let me,

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Speaker 3: let me find the exact phrasing. I'll pull it up

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Speaker 3: here in a second. Oh, here it is Lean was

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Speaker 3: reefed on the close of my run. Trump's does not. Anyway,

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Speaker 3: I'll find the exact language in a second. But by

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Speaker 3: saying that the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon must

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Speaker 3: be respected, what that means you gotta goeah, because Israeli

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Speaker 3: troops inside Lebanon is not respecting the sovereignty and territorial

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Speaker 3: integrity of Lebanon. So that is the thing that they

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Speaker 3: appear to have gotten added thanks to net Yahoo again.

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Speaker 3: So net Yahoo hoisting himself on his own batard there

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Speaker 3: like he thought he was getting in some last licks

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Speaker 3: and kind of showing that he's able to continue to

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Speaker 3: strike Lebanon.

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Speaker 5: Instead, what the US.

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Speaker 3: Added was worse for him that you know, you got

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Speaker 3: to leave too, and in Iran is saying, to be

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Speaker 3: crystal clear, we're not signing this sixty days from now

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Speaker 3: unless it is unless Israel is leaving, but you gotta

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Speaker 3: go yes.

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Speaker 4: And that gets to the fragility of the agreement because

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Speaker 4: I actually was really curious to ask you about this.

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Speaker 4: What we saw unfolding Gaza was this really high profile

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Speaker 4: revealing of a deal. And what's happened is as it

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Speaker 4: goes to the back burner, it fades from the media

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Speaker 4: attention a bit, then it kind of quietly falls apart.

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Speaker 4: Trump is still trumpeting a deal, but it's not actually

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Speaker 4: a deal because it's not being agreed to. And in

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Speaker 4: this case, whether or not you know, the sixty day

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Speaker 4: period that the MoU sets, which seems real because that's

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Speaker 4: according to what the Vice President has said as well,

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Speaker 4: faking of which we'll have a clip of him in

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Speaker 4: just one moment too.

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Speaker 6: Then it all falls apart.

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Speaker 4: I mean it actually can fall apart so easily, because

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Speaker 4: the sixty day period is to finalize the nuclear element

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Speaker 4: of the agreement, which apparently was the entire part.

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Speaker 5: Of the war that took years to do last time.

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Speaker 6: Yes, exactly.

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Speaker 4: And so then it gets to whether or it's in

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Speaker 4: Yahoo actually agrees to leave that area.

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Speaker 6: And so I mean, I don't know. Let's let's take

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Speaker 6: a listen to Vice President j.

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Speaker 3: Quote oh yeah quote and ensuring the territorial integrity and

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Speaker 3: sovereignty of Lebanon.

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Speaker 4: Okay, And so Vice President Vance yesterday got asked by

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Speaker 4: the Lebanon about the Lebanon part of this by Megan Kelly.

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Speaker 6: He went on the View yesterday.

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Speaker 4: He's on a book tour, a step by Megan Show.

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Speaker 4: Megan asked her about this element. And let me know

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Speaker 4: what you think, Grian, I think he's dodging this question

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Speaker 4: pretty hard.

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Speaker 6: Let's roll it.

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Speaker 5: You get to the next stage.

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Speaker 6: Is Lebanon included Lebanon?

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Speaker 5: It is a regional peace deal.

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Speaker 9: It's going to include the golf, it's gonna include Israel,

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Speaker 9: It's gonna include Lebanon.

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Speaker 10: To the idea is this is a true regional peace deal,

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Speaker 10: because you reply, sorry forgive me no, no, no. The idea is

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Speaker 10: that is that if the the if the Iranians comply,

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Speaker 10: then we are going to have a true transformed deal

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Speaker 10: for the Middle East.

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Speaker 4: Megan said, you can't do that without Naho, and Vanshu

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Speaker 4: skirted to saying, well, you know, if iron doesn't comply,

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Speaker 4: then it all falls apart. We have all of the

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Speaker 4: incentives for Iran to comply. He never really answered that question.

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Speaker 3: I kind of thought he did answer it, and I

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Speaker 3: just thought he answered it in the least humiliating way

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Speaker 3: he possibly can. He's like, does it apply to Lebanon, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: it applies to Kuwait, Horain, Uae, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Oman, Iran,

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Speaker 3: Like all the countries are included, and.

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Speaker 4: So leban Yes, Lebanon, and you can't do that nets

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Speaker 4: Yahoo that he pivots to, well, Iran has to comply.

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Speaker 3: But on the back end he says, right, he says

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Speaker 3: Iran has to comply, so you know he's not the

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Speaker 3: only one who has to comply. But on the back

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Speaker 3: half of that answer, he says, we're going to have

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Speaker 3: a new regional arrangement in the in the Middle East,

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Speaker 3: which is basically which I think actually is answering the

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Speaker 3: question that, yeah, you're you're going to have to comply.

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Speaker 6: You're going to have to comply.

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Speaker 4: But I think it's fair to say, I mean, Natsannahu

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Speaker 4: put out a video yesterday saying with an agreement, without

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Speaker 4: an agreement, as long as I am the Prime Minister

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Speaker 4: of Israel, Iran will not have nuclear weapons. You can

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Speaker 4: take that for whatever you think it's worth. But we'll

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Speaker 4: add just some of the points from this Bloomberg leaked memorandum.

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Speaker 4: The United States undertakes Yeah, this is six. The United

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Speaker 4: takes under. The United States undertakes together with its regional partners,

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Speaker 4: to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties

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Speaker 4: for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic

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Speaker 4: of Iran, while ensuring financing of at least three hundred

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Speaker 4: billion dollars. Now that looks like Jared Kushner and Steve

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Speaker 4: Whitkoff negotiated a massive new investment for either them or

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Speaker 4: their real estate friends in Iran. Because now it's on

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Speaker 4: the United States to ensure financing of at least three

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Speaker 4: hundred billion dollars for economic development in Iran. And bear

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Speaker 4: in mind that Trump also started this war meant regime change,

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Speaker 4: not once.

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Speaker 6: But multiple times.

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Speaker 4: The Wall Street Journal reports, I think pretty much everyone agrees.

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Speaker 4: Who has replaced the supreme leader, the Ayatola, the people

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Speaker 4: who have replaced him, Treata Parsi has said, this.

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Speaker 6: Are more radical.

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Speaker 4: So not only did you not get a real regime change,

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Speaker 4: you got a regime shift to more radical, a more

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Speaker 4: radical regime. And you're giving them three hundred billion dollars

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Speaker 4: for economic development. You're helping them get three hundred billion

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Speaker 4: dollars for economic development, lifting all sanctions immediately immediately.

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Speaker 6: That's also part of this.

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Speaker 4: And then on top of waiving them sure, yeah, and

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Speaker 4: then while they work out the sixty day thing, and

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Speaker 4: then on top of that an unfreezing of the assets.

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Speaker 6: So this is like.

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Speaker 4: Completely if someone told you on March first, after this

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Speaker 4: war began, if someone told the people who were cheerleading it,

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Speaker 4: this is what the president would land on, they would.

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Speaker 6: Have been apoplectic, and indeed they are now. But what

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Speaker 6: did they expect?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And to reference Jeremy's reporting again in mid to

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Speaker 3: late February Iran was offering extraordinary concessions to avoid this

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Speaker 3: war on the nuclear program, probably significantly more advanced than

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Speaker 3: what they're offering now, and Trump.

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Speaker 5: Decided not to take it. Instead went to war.

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Speaker 3: And you know, from Iran's perspective, they're happy to get

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Speaker 3: the three hundred million dollars an investment in the unfrozen funds.

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Speaker 3: I think they probably would have actually, I don't know

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Speaker 3: at this point whether they would have rather not had

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Speaker 3: the war. Certainly more than three thousand people killed, most

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Speaker 3: of them civilians, many of them schoolgirls. The steel industry

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Speaker 3: smashed to pieces, petrochemical industry smash, the infrastructure devastation across

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Speaker 3: the country is significant.

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Speaker 6: More than one hundred top leadership gone.

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Speaker 3: Yes, the Tola killed, including lots of other leaders Lara Johnny.

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Speaker 3: And when it comes to this three hundred million dollars

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Speaker 3: according to Reuters, and the ft one hundred two hundred

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Speaker 3: and fifty billion is already committed. And there's something sick

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Speaker 3: about it because it actually is a decent investment opportunity

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Speaker 3: for these golf countries and Witcoffin whoever else is getting

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Speaker 3: involved here.

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Speaker 5: And they produced the investment.

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Speaker 3: Opportunity by destroying things, so they destroyed a bunch of

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Speaker 3: stuff raise the price of gas. The money that you

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Speaker 3: have been paying extra over the last couple of months

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Speaker 3: is money that you couldn't spend on other things. It's

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Speaker 3: money that went into the coffers of the Golf States.

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Speaker 3: The Golf States are then going to invest that in

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Speaker 3: Iran and make probably pretty decent returns because those investments

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Speaker 3: will be paid back, maybe partly in some ownership, but

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Speaker 3: mostly just getting a nice little not on the way

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Speaker 3: back from the three hundred million dollars that they invest. Now,

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Speaker 3: the billions that they're unfreezing, that's Iron's money. And that

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Speaker 3: part has always been so weird to me that we're

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Speaker 3: up that we're upset that we're being forced to give

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Speaker 3: Iran back its own money.

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Speaker 4: Well, and let's I mean, the one thing that the

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Speaker 4: administration is going to say is a big win out

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Speaker 4: of all of this is this point where they say

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Speaker 4: the Islamic or I'm sorry here it is. Yeah, the

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Speaker 4: Islamic Republic of Iran in the United States agree that,

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Speaker 4: pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo.

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Speaker 4: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program,

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Speaker 4: and the United States will not impose new sanctions on

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Speaker 4: Iran or strengthen its forces in the region. The point

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Speaker 4: right before that says the Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates,

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Speaker 4: reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. And then

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Speaker 4: the next point you get the words status quo, right twice,

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Speaker 4: and the next point you get the words status quo

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Speaker 4: on its nuclear program.

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Speaker 6: So what is different from February.

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Speaker 5: Twenty seventh, basically nothing.

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Speaker 3: Now Trump says he got them to add that they

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Speaker 3: won't buy one either, we won't buy a nuclear weapon.

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Speaker 3: I think part of this comes back to the propaganda

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Speaker 3: that led into this, which is that in the JCPOA

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Speaker 3: and in a fatwah and in their repeated policy statements,

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Speaker 3: the Iranians have consistently said we will not pursue a

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Speaker 3: nuclear weapon. We are not pursuing a nuclear weapon. A

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Speaker 3: lot of people in the US did not and do

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Speaker 3: not believe that. So they've reiterated it. They don't believe it.

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Speaker 3: They didn't believe it, then they don't believe it now. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: And so for people that don't believe it, words on

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Speaker 3: paper don't mean anything.

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Speaker 5: At that point, you have to occupy the.

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Speaker 3: Country and then kill every graduating class of scientists, not

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Speaker 3: just the current scientists.

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Speaker 4: And the question of credibility is Trump's entire argument, the rights,

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Speaker 4: entire argument about the JCPOI. So it's like, here we are,

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Speaker 4: and I mean, let's to your point about the propaganda.

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Speaker 4: This is what Trump says would have happened to Israel

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Speaker 4: without him.

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Speaker 5: A three.

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Speaker 8: I think Iran has rational leadership. You wouldn't have if

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Speaker 8: it weren't for the United States of America with me,

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Speaker 8: because Obama was the opposite. Israel would not exist right now.

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Speaker 8: Israel would have been blown off the face of the

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Speaker 8: earth one hundred percent. And every smart person in Israel

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Speaker 8: knows that. Okay, thank you very much, everybody.

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Speaker 6: We'll get to this later in the show.

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Speaker 4: But the people in Israel definitely don't seem to be

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Speaker 4: agreeing with Donald.

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Speaker 6: Trump on this. He now has to at home convince.

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Speaker 4: The people who were the biggest champions of his war

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Speaker 4: policy that this is a good deal, despite the fact

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Speaker 4: that it looks so similar to the JCPOA that they

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Speaker 4: agitated against for a long time, that Trump campaigned against

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Speaker 4: in twenty sixteen, that basically every Republican candidate campaigned against

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Speaker 4: in twenty sixteen, including by the way, Lindsay Graham, who

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Speaker 4: we forget ran for president in twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 6: Let's roll a four.

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Speaker 4: Trump again at the g summit talking about skeptics of

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Speaker 4: the deal.

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Speaker 8: Lindsey is skeptical. I'll have to talk to Lindsay.

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Speaker 7: He'll be in big travel.

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Speaker 8: Lindsay's good, he's fine, He's not skeptically.

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Speaker 7: His fine.

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Speaker 8: Look, this agreement covers something very nicely. We're not paying

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Speaker 8: for anything. We're not doing anything.

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Speaker 4: All right, now, let's listen to sendor Lindsay Graham. Let's well,

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Speaker 4: the next clip.

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Speaker 7: New Don has to come to Congress.

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Speaker 11: Or this will go I mean, it's what we did

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Speaker 11: on und Obama and Prester Trump said today we send

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Speaker 11: it to Congress.

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Speaker 7: He welcomes the vote. Here's what we achieved.

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Speaker 11: If this thing goes through Friday, if we've opened up

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Speaker 11: the Straits well, which will help the economy of the world,

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Speaker 11: the world will be in a permanent ceasire, hopefully, and

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Speaker 11: we'll try to get a nuclear deal with a run

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Speaker 11: and hopefully that will work out. If it doesn't, then

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Speaker 11: he's still achieved opening up the straits and you know,

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Speaker 11: stoking to potty.

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Speaker 4: So what we hear there from Lindsay gramm Aryan is

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Speaker 4: actually similar to what we've heard from JD. Vance on

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Speaker 4: his media tour, which is that the sixty day time

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Speaker 4: period in which there will be negotiations over a run's

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Speaker 4: nuclear program will be the saving grace. Like trust the

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Speaker 4: Process says, Trust the Deal. Everything is now set up

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Speaker 4: in Iran's interest. That's why the deal looks the way

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Speaker 4: that it looks. It's that it's setting them up to

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Speaker 4: comply with the terms of the deal, whether that means

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Speaker 4: giving up the nuclear dust as they say, whether that

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Speaker 4: means something even more dramatic, relinquishing any enrichment capacity, whatever

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Speaker 4: it is. They are now punting to the sixty day period.

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Speaker 4: And that gets to again, is this deal even serious?

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Speaker 4: Are they going to sign it on Friday? And then

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Speaker 4: it immediately starts gradually falling apart, just more on the

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Speaker 4: back burner than it is now. Like Trump has this

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Speaker 4: big signing ceremony, it's great, everything's wonderful. Troops are leaving

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Speaker 4: the region within thirty days, so he can say that

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Speaker 4: the war is over, but then it all ends up

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Speaker 4: falling apart. Just not in the headlines every single day.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Ron Dharmer, who is Nenya, who's former top aid

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Speaker 3: in the Israeli Pressed, saying that don't worry that we

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Speaker 3: actually will not get a signed deal. Hmm, but the

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Speaker 3: memory of understanding, even even not signed, if everybody executes

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Speaker 3: the ideas in it. Now, there's some argument that Trump

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Speaker 3: can't actually lift the sanctions because of law on the books.

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Speaker 3: I haven't seen Trump care so much about laws on

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Speaker 3: the books. Why all of a sudden is he going

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Speaker 3: to start caring.

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Speaker 6: I think there's a.

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Speaker 4: Law in the books against staying in this war over

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Speaker 4: sixty days.

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Speaker 5: There's a lot of laws. There as a lot of

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Speaker 5: laws in the books.

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Speaker 3: Meanwhile, Israel killed another four in South Lebanon yesterday, and

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Speaker 3: so they're they're going to continue.

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Speaker 5: Attacks.

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Speaker 3: Has launched some rockets toward Israeli troops that are in Lebanon,

444
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:49,399
Speaker 3: I don't believe across the Israeli bordered.

445
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:53,199
Speaker 5: So that's that's continuing.

446
00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:58,920
Speaker 3: That's continuing to go on, and that and the goal

447
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 3: there being to kind of disrupt thing and get us

448
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 3: back into the escalation.

449
00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:06,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's the hope.

450
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 6: We'll see if it works. Let's put this post up from.

451
00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 3: For the Escalation Trap author is what I mean yes, yes, yes,

452
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:13,960
Speaker 3: not that he wants.

453
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:15,000
Speaker 5: It, but no.

454
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:16,400
Speaker 6: But it is the.

455
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,840
Speaker 4: Hope in the sense that that's what I.

456
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 6: Was going to say.

457
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:24,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, for hawks, whether it's Mike Pompeo or the Israelis,

458
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:28,400
Speaker 4: this is yes, that is the hope that it's a trap,

459
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:33,240
Speaker 4: everything falls apart and it just everything goes, it resumes.

460
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 4: Let's put this post up from Ibrahim Azizi, who is

461
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:39,240
Speaker 4: the head of the Security Commission of the Iranian Parliament,

462
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:44,720
Speaker 4: who posted yesterday Iranian Resilience Force strategic Pivot. The US

463
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:47,480
Speaker 4: came to the table on Iran's terms. Now Washington must

464
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 4: prove its commitment by ending the war against Lebanon and

465
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:53,000
Speaker 4: upholding every clause of the MoU Any breach. Will be

466
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:57,159
Speaker 4: met with a decisive, crushing response. The era of unilateral

467
00:23:57,160 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 4: imposition against Iranians is over. So both sides eager to

468
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 4: claim this as a big win.

469
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 6: But ran the leaked Bloomberg text.

470
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 4: Even if it's not completely accurate, which I doubt that

471
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 4: it's completely accurate, it's clearly the bones of what the

472
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 4: agreement is going to look like, and it's brutal for Trump.

473
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:18,640
Speaker 6: There's just no way, There's no other way.

474
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 4: To put it, unless you have faith that in the

475
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:23,760
Speaker 4: sixty day period he does come to some type of

476
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 4: transformative negotiation that is really unexpected and different, and for

477
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 4: whatever reason, he's able to extract that in the next

478
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 4: sixty days, but not what we.

479
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:34,480
Speaker 6: Were at war.

480
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 3: And what Trump has done, very cleverly, is he has

481
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:41,159
Speaker 3: taken the humiliation that would be his for this, and

482
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 3: he has pushed it over onto Net Yahoo. And by

483
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 3: creating this rift with net Yahoo and by publicly humiliating him,

484
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:54,399
Speaker 3: he then agitates all of Net Yahoo's and Israel's defenders,

485
00:24:54,960 --> 00:25:00,280
Speaker 3: who then very loudly make absurd arguments about how as

486
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 3: a trader and Trump betrayed them and Trump should have

487
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 3: put boots on the ground, or Trump should continue the war,

488
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 3: and that creates so much noise and drama that we

489
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:14,080
Speaker 3: forget that Trump is owed a lot of humiliation as well.

490
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:17,639
Speaker 3: And I think the entire world, including me, is just

491
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:20,119
Speaker 3: fine to go along with that, be like, okay, yeah, actually,

492
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 3: let's just watch this drama unfold between Trump and then

493
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 3: Yahoo and Okay, yes, Trump deserves humiliation, but what's the

494
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,280
Speaker 3: point He's actually incapable of it anyway.

495
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, that's an important caveat to be fair. Now,

496
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 4: I guess from our vantage point, there may be something.

497
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 4: If you know, we look at February twenty seventh, and

498
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:45,199
Speaker 4: we say, what's going to happen by mid June or

499
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 4: by September when the sixty days has elapsed, as the

500
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:52,920
Speaker 4: United States will be facilitating economic development in Iran and

501
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 4: treating it as a rational actor instead of continuing the

502
00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 4: Lindsay Graham line about the JCPOA from twenty five fifteen

503
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:03,480
Speaker 4: and acting like that's gospel. Now you have a United

504
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:07,199
Speaker 4: States that is in sort of rational negotiations, that that

505
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 4: treats Iron as a rational actor with its own interests,

506
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:13,159
Speaker 4: and there's going to be economic development in a country

507
00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 4: that could obviously used in economic development. Maybe then you

508
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:20,400
Speaker 4: could say there's a sick silver lining, But I don't

509
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 4: have any confidence that's actually what's going to come to

510
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 4: pass whatsoever.

511
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:27,040
Speaker 3: And I will say, of the three countries Israel, United States,

512
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:30,359
Speaker 3: and Iran, which one acted with any rationality over the

513
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:31,359
Speaker 3: past year?

514
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 6: Was it Donald Trump? Donald Trump? Yeah, I mean that's

515
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,160
Speaker 6: the good we got out of the war.

516
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:43,560
Speaker 4: I'm glad thirteen American troops died for this, by the way,

517
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 4: which uses the word status quo. However, many times I

518
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:47,200
Speaker 4: should have controlled left of that.

519
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:52,680
Speaker 6: Billions of dollars, and we're.

520
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 5: As Trump says, maybe we shouldn't have done it.

521
00:26:56,680 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 4: Now, let's bring in Escalation Trap author Robert Pape. We

522
00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 4: are joined with actually some breaking news by Professor Robert Pape,

523
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 4: who of course is the author of the Escalation Trap substack.

524
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:10,679
Speaker 4: You can check that out and he is a professor

525
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 4: at the University of Chicago. Professor Pape, thank you so

526
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:14,560
Speaker 4: much for joining us again.

527
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 7: Thank you for having me.

528
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 6: Yeah.

529
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:18,879
Speaker 4: So, actually, just between when we started the show and

530
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:22,640
Speaker 4: now when we're having this discussion with you, President Trump

531
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 4: has been speaking at the G seven summit in Switzerland

532
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:29,679
Speaker 4: and is responding to this leaked memorandum of understanding that

533
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 4: hit Bloomberg.

534
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 6: Iranians are saying it's not real.

535
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:36,960
Speaker 4: Actually, now even President Trump is saying it's not totally real. So, first,

536
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 4: that included a three hundred billion dollar facilitation of funds

537
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:45,199
Speaker 4: from the United States to RAN, meaning like investments for

538
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 4: economic development is the phrase from the leaked MoU Here

539
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 4: is President Trump just moments ago talking about whether or

540
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 4: not that particular part is real.

541
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 6: B Two, well, he's.

542
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:58,119
Speaker 7: Been reported that it includes his three hundred billion dollars

543
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 7: of love in my.

544
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:04,879
Speaker 8: False people, you can invest if you want. I mean,

545
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:06,639
Speaker 8: what are we gonna do, say nobody's ever allowed to

546
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 8: invest We're not invested. We're not putting up ten cents

547
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:13,359
Speaker 8: and people can decide to do that, but that's up

548
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,160
Speaker 8: to them. I mean, do you want me to say

549
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 8: nobody's ever allowed to invest in a country? I'll say

550
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:21,239
Speaker 8: it with Egypt. Nobody's allowed to invest in Egypt. Am

551
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 8: I supposed to say that we are not investing in

552
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:27,479
Speaker 8: it and we do not have a fund.

553
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 7: No.

554
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 8: If they do it, fine, but I would say they

555
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:33,720
Speaker 8: won't be doing it for a while until they find

556
00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 8: out the behavior. It's a behavior thing. But we are

557
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 8: not invested. That's a false story that got picked up

558
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:45,400
Speaker 8: incorrectly from a statement that was pretty well made. I

559
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:47,840
Speaker 8: think maybe a little bit it could have been a

560
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 8: little more accurate.

561
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 4: And on top of that, the President said this again

562
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 4: just moments ago, be three and.

563
00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:58,040
Speaker 8: You can't give around a nuclear weapon and they will

564
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:00,840
Speaker 8: never have a nuclear weapon. So that's very very strong.

565
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 8: It's a very strong deal. Nobody knows what it is,

566
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 8: but it's very strong, and most people seem to be

567
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 8: very happy. Who's really happy is the market.

568
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:13,959
Speaker 4: Nobody knows what it is, but it's very strong. Now,

569
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 4: Professor Pave, we can put b one up on the screen.

570
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 4: This is from the escalation trap. You wrote, uncertain deal

571
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 4: and Iran certainly enters its period of maximum leverage. This

572
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 4: was on June fifteenth. You said, despite the headlines, this

573
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 4: deal remains highly uncertain, and that I.

574
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 6: Think is proven to be true even two days.

575
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 4: Later, as we approach the Friday signing deadline that the

576
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 4: Vice President was telling everybody yesterday is coming up. So

577
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 4: walk us through a little bit of this argument from

578
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:43,960
Speaker 4: your own, Professor Pave, about how ARAN is in its

579
00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 4: maximum leverage period right now.

580
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 7: Yeah, let's start with the big picture, and then I

581
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 7: want to comment directly on what President Trump said, because

582
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,840
Speaker 7: I think I can offer some clarity for your audience

583
00:29:55,880 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 7: about what's going on as he's parsing his words. But

584
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 7: let's start with the big picture. President Trump lost the bombing.

585
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 7: Now he's at great risk for losing the deal. And

586
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 7: what I mean by that is that Iran came out

587
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:18,480
Speaker 7: of the bombing, not just didn't collapse, but came out

588
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:23,480
Speaker 7: of the bombing with power, it gained control of Hormuz.

589
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:27,960
Speaker 7: Now with the deal, the big risk in the deal,

590
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 7: and I understand it's very controversial, but the risk is

591
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 7: Iran is gaining more power through the deal. And that

592
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 7: is very important to understand that Iran in the deal,

593
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 7: even by the terms President Trump describes and jd. Vance describes,

594
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 7: Iran will come out more powerful through the deal than

595
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 7: it is today. So this is an enormous of enormous

596
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 7: and importance because we're already understand that with the deal,

597
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:09,479
Speaker 7: and this is completely agreed to by President Trump, Iran

598
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 7: will be able to sell oil immediately. Well that's a

599
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:18,960
Speaker 7: billion dollars a week. Number two. We already know and

600
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 7: this is completely agreed to by President Trump, and you

601
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 7: just heard him say it, that others can invest in Iran.

602
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 7: That is this idea that America would block or sanction

603
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 7: countries for investment. This is important. We've had a tight

604
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 7: focus on Iran where we've put a basically a ring

605
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 7: around Iran. You can't do business in Iran or else

606
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 7: we America we come punish you. Well, that of course

607
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 7: has deterred quite a bit of business in Iran. That

608
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:54,080
Speaker 7: is just by what President Trump just said now off

609
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:58,240
Speaker 7: the table. So that means all of those golf countries.

610
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 7: Cutter it can offer that twelve billion dollars up front

611
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 7: signing bonus. President Trump doesn't have to pay the money.

612
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:08,800
Speaker 7: Cutter is gonna pay the money, completely in line with

613
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 7: what the deputy Foreign Minister of Iran has said. Then

614
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 7: you just go further and further. And what you are

615
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:19,560
Speaker 7: seeing here is you are seeing just with the early

616
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 7: stages of the MoU Iran is going to gain over

617
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:29,960
Speaker 7: this sixty days, somewhere between twenty and thirty billion dollars

618
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:32,880
Speaker 7: and there's no strings on what they can do with

619
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 7: that money. They can give that money to HESBLA. That is,

620
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 7: they want Israel to pull out of Lebanon. Well, there's

621
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:42,040
Speaker 7: no quid pro quote. And Iran does not give missiles

622
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 7: and drone technology to HESBLA, No, they have This goes

623
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 7: completely the one side. They can give that money and

624
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 7: technology to the Hoothies. They can build the arc of

625
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 7: security resistance that we talked about on last show, no

626
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 7: strings attached, no limits on what they can do there.

627
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:06,760
Speaker 7: That's just in the first sixty days. Okay, but now

628
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 7: let's look at the true long term problem. Medium term problem,

629
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:14,880
Speaker 7: which is the title of the substack on the escalation trap,

630
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 7: the period of maximum leverage. This is what's happened so far,

631
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 7: But what's going to go on in the next sixty

632
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 7: days is, yes, oil will start begin to dribble out

633
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 7: of the Gulf, but that won't reach the drops of oil.

634
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:35,400
Speaker 7: The ships won't reach their stations, their refineries for sixty days,

635
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 7: thirty to sixty days, and then it will be a

636
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:40,360
Speaker 7: big process after that. So what do we live on

637
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 7: in that sixty day window. We continue to draw down

638
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 7: the oil inventories, the oil inventory window. It remains the

639
00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 7: crucial issue because there's no way around it. And what's

640
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:56,680
Speaker 7: going to happen is as we draw down to our

641
00:33:56,840 --> 00:34:01,960
Speaker 7: rock bottom levels in the global oil inventories, that means

642
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 7: Iran's leverage is gonna soar, it's gonna grow. Because now

643
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:10,720
Speaker 7: in sixty days early August, that's right when this sixty

644
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:13,800
Speaker 7: day window ends, notice, and that's when the oil inventory

645
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 7: bottom hits rock bottom. That means if Iran shuts this

646
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:20,640
Speaker 7: down again for any reason, doesn't like what Israel's doing,

647
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 7: it can just come up with any reason at once.

648
00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 7: It can hold the world hostage for even more and

649
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 7: what's that more likely gonna be in thisiwagh out the

650
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 7: trajectory here, because I'm thinking of this as a realist.

651
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 7: If you're gonna maximize power for Iran, what's the next

652
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 7: set of steps you want? You want complete withdrawal of

653
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:47,280
Speaker 7: American forces from the region. You want, that's your next goal,

654
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:49,920
Speaker 7: And you're already talking about it, and it's in the

655
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 7: bloomberg already. They're already laying down the marker that the

656
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:59,480
Speaker 7: next steps are gonna be. And this may seem why

657
00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:02,800
Speaker 7: why do we care if US forces are there? Because

658
00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:07,759
Speaker 7: if US forces are not in the region, now, all

659
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 7: of a sudden, Iran has even more room for its

660
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 7: sphere of influence. There's more reason for those golf countries

661
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 7: to when we say invest in Iran, that's also called

662
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 7: bandwagoning and siding with Iran. That's joining Iran. Let's just

663
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 7: be clear, not Israel. They're not investing in Israel, you

664
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 7: see what I mean. So what's going to happen here

665
00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:39,359
Speaker 7: is that as this degree, as this period unfolds, this

666
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:41,520
Speaker 7: is what I've been talking about about the fork in

667
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:45,360
Speaker 7: the road that President Trump had to choose. Either he

668
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 7: escalates or he goes down the road of surrender and

669
00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:55,440
Speaker 7: allows Iran to become the fourth center of world power,

670
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 7: where it achieves over a period of a year or two,

671
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:05,439
Speaker 7: regional primacy. And Trump has accepted not just to get

672
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:09,880
Speaker 7: out of a deal. He's basically drawn a road map.

673
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:12,799
Speaker 7: Remember how President Trump said the Obama deal was a

674
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:16,120
Speaker 7: roadmap to an Iranian nuclear weapon. Well, this is a

675
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 7: bigger roadmap. This is a roadmap to Iranian primacy, regional

676
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 7: hedgemond in the region for as far as the eye

677
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 7: can see, which, by the way down the road may

678
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:36,400
Speaker 7: also include nuclear weapons. That's not foreclosed here by any stretch.

679
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 7: There's nothing here that Iran has done. So President Trump's words,

680
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:45,120
Speaker 7: he was choosing his words very carefully. In what you said.

681
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:50,360
Speaker 7: There's nothing that in the Bloomberg that he is really

682
00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:53,919
Speaker 7: disagreeing with. He's saying it's all fake news. Well, he's

683
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:58,480
Speaker 7: in fact confirming every word that's in Bloomberg because what

684
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:00,640
Speaker 7: it says in Bloomberg, and if it's it's okay for

685
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:03,719
Speaker 7: your audience. I'm just going to read point six. The

686
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 7: United States undertakes together with its regional partners to create

687
00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 7: a comprehensive plan agreed on by both parties ensuring financing

688
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:22,040
Speaker 7: of at least three hundred billion. Now, that doesn't say

689
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 7: America will certainly finance it. It does say America is

690
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 7: good with it. And for Iran becoming a regional hedgemond man,

691
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:35,640
Speaker 7: you can't ask for better than that right now. And

692
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:40,080
Speaker 7: their leverage is only growing over the next sixty days,

693
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:43,479
Speaker 7: and it will stay there through the end of the year,

694
00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:47,320
Speaker 7: because it'll take that long before we'll have enough surplus

695
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:50,319
Speaker 7: to put more reserve back in our oil in our

696
00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 7: oil inventories, because as long as we don't have the

697
00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:57,239
Speaker 7: oil inventories, we don't have the cushion for even a

698
00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:00,920
Speaker 7: short period of time. And if Iran runs decides to

699
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 7: temporarily block the straits, you're going to see much more

700
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:06,239
Speaker 7: panic here on the markets. Yeah.

701
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,479
Speaker 3: And of course, as we and all of the rest

702
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:12,040
Speaker 3: of the world are building back up our inventories and

703
00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:16,760
Speaker 3: building back up our strategic reserves, we're also buying oil

704
00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 3: for day to day activity, which has been putting much

705
00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 3: more demand pressure over the next kind of six months

706
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 3: to a year as this is unfolding, which to your point,

707
00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 3: only you know, accelerates the amount of leverage that they

708
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:30,319
Speaker 3: would happen I wanted to push back a little bit

709
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 3: on kind of two notions there. One is it really

710
00:38:32,680 --> 00:38:36,239
Speaker 3: surrender to say, as Trump was laying it out in

711
00:38:36,239 --> 00:38:38,200
Speaker 3: it is a very common sense way. Who am I

712
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:41,000
Speaker 3: to tell some other country that they who whether they

713
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:43,400
Speaker 3: can invest in Egypt or whether they can invest in Iran?

714
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:44,239
Speaker 5: It's a free world.

715
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:45,839
Speaker 3: Basically, he's saying, it's a free world if you want

716
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:47,160
Speaker 3: to invest in Iran.

717
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:48,720
Speaker 5: I happen to agree.

718
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:51,440
Speaker 3: I think sanctions are kind of insane that the US

719
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:54,759
Speaker 3: unilaterally actually illegally under international law. You can't just do

720
00:38:54,880 --> 00:38:57,720
Speaker 3: unilateral sanctions and saying nobody's allowed to invest in Iran?

721
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:01,799
Speaker 3: So why is just why is following international law and

722
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:06,359
Speaker 3: not implementing unilateral sanctions on a country surrender to them?

723
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 5: And then related curious for your taking this right now?

724
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:12,359
Speaker 3: The strait of Formose obviously has the capacity to shut

725
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:16,239
Speaker 3: down and really crimp the global economy over the next

726
00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:19,880
Speaker 3: twenty years. We're going to have an ongoing shift to

727
00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:22,960
Speaker 3: other forms of energy, and the Gulf countries are going

728
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:28,359
Speaker 3: to continue to build pipelines and other roots that take

729
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:33,120
Speaker 3: into account this choke point and try to go around them.

730
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 3: So global force power seems to me exaggerated based on

731
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 3: the fact that the strait of removes is in some

732
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:46,240
Speaker 3: ways a deteriorating asset in that kind of a world.

733
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 7: So let me explain both points. So, first of all,

734
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 7: I am not arguing in favor of going back to escalations.

735
00:39:53,120 --> 00:39:55,640
Speaker 7: I just want to be very very clear here. Okay,

736
00:39:55,640 --> 00:39:59,400
Speaker 7: that's not my point here. I'm assessing as an analyst

737
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:05,120
Speaker 7: what's going on in this deal. I'm not making an advocacy. Oh,

738
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:07,759
Speaker 7: we don't like X, let's go back and bomb them.

739
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:10,239
Speaker 7: So I just want to take that issue right off

740
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:13,000
Speaker 7: the table. The reason this is a complete surrender and

741
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:17,279
Speaker 7: capitulation by Trump, though, just as a factual matter, is

742
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 7: before the war, we fought a war to weaken Iran's power.

743
00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:27,160
Speaker 7: We wanted to weaken it by crippling its regime. We

744
00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:30,839
Speaker 7: wanted to weaken its missiles. We wanted to weaken its

745
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 7: ability to threaten its neighbors. This is the opposite outcome.

746
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:40,880
Speaker 7: And now Trump is signing on the dotted line. Have

747
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:44,239
Speaker 7: to recall that on February twenty eight he announced he

748
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:50,120
Speaker 7: wanted unconditional surrender by Iran. This is the opposite. This

749
00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:53,680
Speaker 7: isn't conditional surrender. By the United States. And notice Trump's said,

750
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:56,840
Speaker 7: who am I to block at dot dot dot for Iran?

751
00:40:57,280 --> 00:41:01,239
Speaker 7: So just as a factual matter, this just is a

752
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:05,840
Speaker 7: surrender here. And now back to the issue of Iran

753
00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:09,719
Speaker 7: as the fourth center of world power. I'm not saying

754
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:12,560
Speaker 7: it's the fourth center of world power today, but what

755
00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 7: counts as a regional hegemon, that would be a center

756
00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:21,759
Speaker 7: of power. So number one, controlling twenty percent of the

757
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 7: world's energy, that's a fantastic amount of control of the

758
00:41:26,680 --> 00:41:31,960
Speaker 7: world's world's resources. The United States only has sixteen percent,

759
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:36,680
Speaker 7: Russia only eleven, so put this in. Then on top

760
00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:40,040
Speaker 7: of that, they're building a sphere of influence. So now

761
00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:43,720
Speaker 7: when we talk about a regional hedgemon, what's the next step.

762
00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:49,200
Speaker 7: Then that first step is resources, second step is regional influence. Well,

763
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:52,439
Speaker 7: now what they're doing is they are kicking Israel out

764
00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:57,759
Speaker 7: of Lebanon. They're extending their umbrella over their key allies,

765
00:41:57,840 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 7: and they're building that security belt from Lebanon to the

766
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:06,800
Speaker 7: Red Sea to the Gulf. The third is the states

767
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:11,320
Speaker 7: in the region bandwagon with you. They give you things

768
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:16,280
Speaker 7: rather than contain you. So those are all steps already happening,

769
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:19,760
Speaker 7: and what I'm explaining is this is what it means

770
00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:25,319
Speaker 7: to be a center of world power, and it's already emerging,

771
00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:29,040
Speaker 7: and it will take more time to consolidate, but they're

772
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:32,360
Speaker 7: on a road to do that. That's my point, not

773
00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:35,640
Speaker 7: that they're there now. And this is the world we're

774
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:38,360
Speaker 7: going to have to live with. This is a world

775
00:42:38,600 --> 00:42:41,440
Speaker 7: of the future that's coming, and that's my job as

776
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 7: an analyst. It's not to make it all sound all fine,

777
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:48,680
Speaker 7: let's just all pat everybody's fine, Okay, let's accept reality.

778
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:51,279
Speaker 7: My job is to tell you what's coming so you

779
00:42:51,400 --> 00:42:54,960
Speaker 7: can prepare for that reality. So why, for example, Mike,

780
00:42:55,160 --> 00:43:00,239
Speaker 7: Israel freak out and start assassinating leaders in Iran as

781
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 7: a result of this. I'm not telling you they're even

782
00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:06,000
Speaker 7: to assassinate the leaders coming on Friday. But notice they've

783
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:09,440
Speaker 7: done that before. Okay, it's not on This happened just

784
00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:12,560
Speaker 7: literally a year ago when Israel started the Twelve Day

785
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 7: War by literally killing the exact diplomats on the weekend

786
00:43:17,200 --> 00:43:19,120
Speaker 7: we were about to meet with them. Now, I'm not

787
00:43:19,160 --> 00:43:21,480
Speaker 7: telling you that's going to happen, but things like that

788
00:43:22,120 --> 00:43:26,760
Speaker 7: you should expect here because Israel was the rising power.

789
00:43:27,280 --> 00:43:32,439
Speaker 7: Now it is the opposite. So why might Israel lash out? Well,

790
00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 7: if you don't have the assessment of the world we're

791
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 7: moving into, you can't really get a good judge on

792
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:39,360
Speaker 7: the risks.

793
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:41,800
Speaker 4: And there's also an element of the sunk cost fallacy

794
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:46,680
Speaker 4: at play too, in that what often will create escalation

795
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:49,600
Speaker 4: into a hot war that lasts longer longer is the

796
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:52,200
Speaker 4: idea that you see a leader, like the President of

797
00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:55,399
Speaker 4: the United States, whether it's Donald Trump or somebody else, saying, well,

798
00:43:55,480 --> 00:43:57,800
Speaker 4: I have to escalate because otherwise it looks like complete

799
00:43:57,840 --> 00:43:58,920
Speaker 4: and total capitulation.

800
00:43:59,040 --> 00:43:59,960
Speaker 6: It looks like surrender.

801
00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:02,680
Speaker 4: To borrow the word that you just used, Professor, Based

802
00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:04,759
Speaker 4: on what we've seen from the leaked to MOUs, I

803
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:07,040
Speaker 4: think CNN has its hands on one now as well.

804
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:10,120
Speaker 4: So what's interesting is if we take the administration at

805
00:44:10,120 --> 00:44:12,160
Speaker 4: face value here, I'm curious for your take on this.

806
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:17,080
Speaker 4: One of the things that maybe we aren't anticipating is

807
00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:21,200
Speaker 4: that Trump is willing to take a major loss and

808
00:44:21,920 --> 00:44:24,920
Speaker 4: like be viewed as somebody who has capitulated, which is

809
00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:29,080
Speaker 4: odd because the very cheerleaders he's been drawing nearer to

810
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 4: the Mark Levins of the world over the course of

811
00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:34,840
Speaker 4: the war are the ones that are devastated right now, furious,

812
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:37,200
Speaker 4: devastated and raged right now by the terms of the deal.

813
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:39,680
Speaker 4: And so if we again are taking the adminutes at

814
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:41,880
Speaker 4: face value and say, you know, sixty days from now,

815
00:44:42,320 --> 00:44:45,879
Speaker 4: everything has gone according to plan, it looks like maybe

816
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:49,440
Speaker 4: they didn't escalate because they took a they just became

817
00:44:49,480 --> 00:44:51,320
Speaker 4: comfortable taking a big loss.

818
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 6: Is there some element of that too, So.

819
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:56,319
Speaker 7: There is definitely truth exactly what you said in the

820
00:44:56,360 --> 00:45:00,319
Speaker 7: snapshot of today. So there is no doubt that in

821
00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:03,520
Speaker 7: Trump is taking the loss, he's trying to shift the

822
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:06,600
Speaker 7: buck to JD. Van So he's making JD. Vance carry

823
00:45:06,640 --> 00:45:09,959
Speaker 7: as much of the loss as possible. So that's why

824
00:45:10,120 --> 00:45:12,759
Speaker 7: Vance has been on like thirty two news stations in

825
00:45:12,800 --> 00:45:16,759
Speaker 7: the last twelve hours, okay, and defending a Rod as

826
00:45:16,840 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 7: the rational reasonable people and so forth. So that's the case.

827
00:45:22,239 --> 00:45:25,239
Speaker 7: But my point is a little bit broader than just

828
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:30,160
Speaker 7: the snapshot of today. We're moving into an incredibly contentious

829
00:45:30,239 --> 00:45:35,600
Speaker 7: sixty day window. We're moving into a window where literally war,

830
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:39,520
Speaker 7: a hot war, could break out at any point in

831
00:45:39,560 --> 00:45:43,200
Speaker 7: this sixty days here. Now, how you would know that

832
00:45:43,280 --> 00:45:47,400
Speaker 7: won't happen for the United States is that American forces

833
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:53,040
Speaker 7: will withdraw. So if American forces leave the region, that

834
00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:56,959
Speaker 7: is all those the carriers leave, all those aircraft leave,

835
00:45:57,080 --> 00:46:01,719
Speaker 7: the ten thousand ground forces leave. If we pull out,

836
00:46:01,719 --> 00:46:04,960
Speaker 7: if we don't repopulate the bases that have been destroyed,

837
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:08,319
Speaker 7: remember the base, A lot of bases have been destroyed. Well,

838
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:12,080
Speaker 7: if that happens, then the risk of escalation will truly

839
00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:15,880
Speaker 7: go down. But in that window of that sixty days

840
00:46:15,920 --> 00:46:19,960
Speaker 7: and beyond that is where you have more losses coming

841
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:23,520
Speaker 7: for President Trump, And as he gets into the midterms here,

842
00:46:23,680 --> 00:46:26,400
Speaker 7: the question is going to be can he keep eating

843
00:46:26,680 --> 00:46:30,480
Speaker 7: losses because Iran's not done giving them losses yet. Iran's

844
00:46:30,520 --> 00:46:32,560
Speaker 7: not saying, oh, yeah, I got what I wanted. I'm

845
00:46:32,600 --> 00:46:35,680
Speaker 7: good now, we're just good for the next five years. No,

846
00:46:35,880 --> 00:46:38,520
Speaker 7: that's not what Iran is doing here. They already are

847
00:46:38,520 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 7: putting down the markers. They want American forces out of

848
00:46:41,640 --> 00:46:45,080
Speaker 7: the region. They want Israel to truly be out of Lebanon.

849
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:48,120
Speaker 7: They want their money. What happens if they don't get

850
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:50,839
Speaker 7: their money? Is Iran simply going to say, oh, sure,

851
00:46:50,880 --> 00:46:53,080
Speaker 7: you promised me the money you welched on the deal,

852
00:46:53,360 --> 00:46:55,480
Speaker 7: but we're not gonna We're not going to close the

853
00:46:55,520 --> 00:46:58,399
Speaker 7: straight of hormos. So these are the issues that are

854
00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:02,520
Speaker 7: coming in the next sixty and beyond. And it's between

855
00:47:02,560 --> 00:47:06,120
Speaker 7: now in the midterms that President Trump really is going

856
00:47:06,200 --> 00:47:08,279
Speaker 7: to be It's going to be an issue can he

857
00:47:08,360 --> 00:47:12,239
Speaker 7: keep eating the losses? As you've got basically half of

858
00:47:12,360 --> 00:47:15,520
Speaker 7: Mega pretty upset right now and they see a big

859
00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:18,840
Speaker 7: loser in front of them. That's what they see. And

860
00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:22,719
Speaker 7: this is a problem for Trump and Maga. Will Maga

861
00:47:22,840 --> 00:47:25,080
Speaker 7: just suck it up and say, oh sure, we're going

862
00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:27,440
Speaker 7: to just kind of get behind the guy who just

863
00:47:28,040 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 7: who's got us into this big war, killed you know,

864
00:47:31,160 --> 00:47:34,680
Speaker 7: over a dozen of our troops one hundred billion dollars

865
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:37,239
Speaker 7: and now we come out with a loss. Is that

866
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:40,200
Speaker 7: going to help in the midterms? So this is this

867
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:42,759
Speaker 7: is the other side of the trap, if you see

868
00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:44,839
Speaker 7: what I mean. So I'm not telling you he will

869
00:47:44,880 --> 00:47:47,840
Speaker 7: certainly escalate. That's not where I'm at and I'm not

870
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:52,360
Speaker 7: advocating he escalates. I'm assessing that we're in the middle

871
00:47:52,640 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 7: game of the escalation trap. And how you would know

872
00:47:56,560 --> 00:47:59,200
Speaker 7: you're in the end game is not just by a

873
00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:03,759
Speaker 7: piece of pay paper and promises of the future. American

874
00:48:04,040 --> 00:48:09,319
Speaker 7: forces will physically withdraw from the region that if you

875
00:48:09,360 --> 00:48:11,759
Speaker 7: go back to my ex account, That's what I was

876
00:48:11,800 --> 00:48:15,760
Speaker 7: warning about in early February. We're building an our model.

877
00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:19,879
Speaker 7: I wasn't focusing on Trump's words. I said, we're likely

878
00:48:19,960 --> 00:48:23,760
Speaker 7: going to bomber on. That's why I started the escalation trap,

879
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:28,320
Speaker 7: because we moved the troops here. Well, if we unmove

880
00:48:28,400 --> 00:48:34,200
Speaker 7: the troops. Now you're following the indicators that Professor Patee uses,

881
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:37,759
Speaker 7: which is the behavioral indicators. That's how you'll know you're

882
00:48:37,800 --> 00:48:39,240
Speaker 7: actually out of the trap.

883
00:48:39,719 --> 00:48:41,600
Speaker 3: And I think the way that a lot of people

884
00:48:41,680 --> 00:48:45,560
Speaker 3: understand the escalation trap is that it's fairly determinative and

885
00:48:45,640 --> 00:48:51,279
Speaker 3: that each step pushes you further into it. But at

886
00:48:51,280 --> 00:48:54,640
Speaker 3: some point, presumably this is going to end. So like,

887
00:48:56,560 --> 00:48:59,759
Speaker 3: how does the model account for other decision making that

888
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:02,960
Speaker 3: gets out of the escalation Trump Let's say this MoU

889
00:49:03,080 --> 00:49:07,000
Speaker 3: does stick. Does that mean the model was flawed and

890
00:49:07,120 --> 00:49:10,600
Speaker 3: need needs to be amended or are there elements within

891
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:12,120
Speaker 3: the model that allow for this?

892
00:49:12,440 --> 00:49:15,040
Speaker 7: Yeah. The elements in the model, as I've been explaining,

893
00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:17,040
Speaker 7: and this is what I lay out, is you had

894
00:49:17,080 --> 00:49:20,160
Speaker 7: stage one. Stage two, which is stage two is where

895
00:49:20,160 --> 00:49:22,759
Speaker 7: Iran gets more moves. Then you're at a fork in

896
00:49:22,800 --> 00:49:26,440
Speaker 7: the road. Stage three, more escalation by Trump. Stage four,

897
00:49:26,560 --> 00:49:30,120
Speaker 7: we accept acquiesce to Iran becoming the fourth center of

898
00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:33,880
Speaker 7: world power, and we withdraw our forces. We literally withdraw

899
00:49:33,880 --> 00:49:37,359
Speaker 7: our forces. So that's the four stages that I've laid out,

900
00:49:37,520 --> 00:49:40,000
Speaker 7: and on my live videos, I go through this almost

901
00:49:40,080 --> 00:49:43,520
Speaker 7: every two weeks, so I've got the graphics and so forth.

902
00:49:43,560 --> 00:49:45,399
Speaker 7: I'm glad to send you the graphics, by the way.

903
00:49:46,040 --> 00:49:48,600
Speaker 7: And so this is where we are. We are at

904
00:49:48,600 --> 00:49:52,200
Speaker 7: a fork in the road, and Trump is choosing the

905
00:49:52,800 --> 00:49:57,280
Speaker 7: acquiescence track. And how you'll know then that the escalation

906
00:49:57,520 --> 00:50:03,040
Speaker 7: model is ending is when Trump withdraws the forces. That's

907
00:50:03,080 --> 00:50:06,799
Speaker 7: how you know that you're actually it's the end. And

908
00:50:07,160 --> 00:50:10,400
Speaker 7: that just hasn't happened yet. Now, maybe he'll withdraw forces

909
00:50:10,480 --> 00:50:13,960
Speaker 7: next week, Maybe he'll withdraw forces in thirty days. I

910
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:18,200
Speaker 7: don't know. But I'm not predicting the timing. I'm predicting

911
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:21,560
Speaker 7: the trajectory and the stages, and that's really that. And

912
00:50:22,320 --> 00:50:24,760
Speaker 7: I'm sorry, but this is the twenty years of the moment.

913
00:50:24,880 --> 00:50:27,760
Speaker 7: This is the only way out of this is either

914
00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:31,960
Speaker 7: you go forward with more escalation or you withdraw your

915
00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:37,960
Speaker 7: forces and you accept its acquiescence, accommodation, capitulation to a

916
00:50:38,120 --> 00:50:44,120
Speaker 7: stronger Iran. There's no like graceful way out where we

917
00:50:44,280 --> 00:50:48,080
Speaker 7: just pretend this didn't happen and suddenly we're back to

918
00:50:48,160 --> 00:50:52,120
Speaker 7: February twenty seven. We're not the status quo of February

919
00:50:52,160 --> 00:50:56,640
Speaker 7: twenty seven is not coming back. There's two status quos

920
00:50:56,680 --> 00:51:00,200
Speaker 7: in front of us. More war or Iran is a

921
00:51:00,239 --> 00:51:03,520
Speaker 7: stronger power for many years to come.

922
00:51:03,960 --> 00:51:06,960
Speaker 4: Professor Pape, thank you so much for reacting to breaking

923
00:51:07,000 --> 00:51:07,920
Speaker 4: news this morning.

924
00:51:08,040 --> 00:51:09,480
Speaker 6: We really really appreciate you being.

925
00:51:09,320 --> 00:51:11,360
Speaker 7: Here well, and thank you for having me and for

926
00:51:11,440 --> 00:51:15,120
Speaker 7: allowing me to explain what's essentially a model and all

927
00:51:15,160 --> 00:51:19,320
Speaker 7: these stages here, which is which is really quite something.

928
00:51:19,400 --> 00:51:21,319
Speaker 7: So thank you so much for doing that.

929
00:51:21,440 --> 00:51:21,920
Speaker 6: No, thank you.

930
00:51:21,960 --> 00:51:25,120
Speaker 4: I know our audience appreciates its appreciates it a lot,

931
00:51:25,280 --> 00:51:27,279
Speaker 4: so we're very grateful to you for me.

932
00:51:27,320 --> 00:51:29,560
Speaker 7: And if you want that graphic, just let me know

933
00:51:29,800 --> 00:51:32,360
Speaker 7: and then you can circulate it with this, so people

934
00:51:32,480 --> 00:51:34,480
Speaker 7: send me understand, just shoot me and know.

935
00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:35,640
Speaker 5: Okay, sounds great.

936
00:51:36,040 --> 00:51:37,440
Speaker 6: Thank you so much, Professor Pape.

937
00:51:37,680 --> 00:51:39,760
Speaker 7: Okay, all right, thanks again, bye bye.

938
00:51:42,280 --> 00:51:45,359
Speaker 3: So President Donald Trump is suggesting that if Israel is

939
00:51:45,440 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 3: incapable of waging war in southern Lebanon without the mass

940
00:51:50,600 --> 00:51:54,920
Speaker 3: killing of civilians, perhaps a former al Qaeda leader should

941
00:51:54,960 --> 00:51:56,000
Speaker 3: take over the task.

942
00:51:56,400 --> 00:51:57,560
Speaker 5: Let's roll see two here.

943
00:51:58,040 --> 00:52:01,400
Speaker 8: I suggested to Israel to let Siria take care of

944
00:52:02,000 --> 00:52:04,759
Speaker 8: hesbo Is. To be honest with you, I think they

945
00:52:04,880 --> 00:52:05,840
Speaker 8: do a better job.

946
00:52:05,600 --> 00:52:06,200
Speaker 7: Of doing it.

947
00:52:06,880 --> 00:52:10,520
Speaker 3: The result in Israel, across the political spectrum in the

948
00:52:10,520 --> 00:52:15,160
Speaker 3: media class, has been one of deep struggle. Let's roll

949
00:52:15,160 --> 00:52:17,719
Speaker 3: a little bit of the John Potteritz podcast.

950
00:52:18,400 --> 00:52:24,880
Speaker 9: Trump is now saying Bbie is indiscriminately murdering Lebanese. But

951
00:52:25,000 --> 00:52:29,560
Speaker 9: the Iranians are nice and they only want to help

952
00:52:29,600 --> 00:52:30,280
Speaker 9: their country.

953
00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:33,839
Speaker 2: The people who just tried to shoot down and kill

954
00:52:34,000 --> 00:52:36,839
Speaker 2: two of our pilots last week.

955
00:52:36,719 --> 00:52:42,160
Speaker 9: Yeah, of course, who who tried to assassinate him, Yeah,

956
00:52:42,840 --> 00:52:47,880
Speaker 9: tried to assassinate John Bolton tried Tom. I'm telling you

957
00:52:47,920 --> 00:52:54,920
Speaker 9: what's going on. What's going on? Is he something happened

958
00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:58,080
Speaker 9: and he decided that he went the wrong way, and

959
00:52:58,120 --> 00:53:03,560
Speaker 9: he is ratcheting himself in the other direction. And it's

960
00:53:03,600 --> 00:53:08,200
Speaker 9: almost as though when he was without restraint in the

961
00:53:08,480 --> 00:53:11,960
Speaker 9: rhetoric that he was using the militaristic rhetoric he was using,

962
00:53:12,360 --> 00:53:16,120
Speaker 9: I only want unconditional surrender. I'm going to bomb your civilization.

963
00:53:16,640 --> 00:53:21,000
Speaker 9: Da da da da da. Once he turns tail, suddenly,

964
00:53:21,560 --> 00:53:26,200
Speaker 9: Iran's nice gutter is brave another thing that he said today,

965
00:53:26,239 --> 00:53:29,680
Speaker 9: And you will always be my friend. And you were

966
00:53:29,760 --> 00:53:32,960
Speaker 9: so brave and so wonderful in these talks. And Israel

967
00:53:33,080 --> 00:53:36,600
Speaker 9: is the bad guy. So which is where he's going?

968
00:53:36,719 --> 00:53:40,279
Speaker 9: Like this? This is the opening South this weekend. He

969
00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:46,360
Speaker 9: went from Babe, is uh, you know what the effort

970
00:53:46,400 --> 00:53:49,600
Speaker 9: you doing and you're without judgment and now it's your

971
00:53:49,640 --> 00:53:53,759
Speaker 9: blowing up apartment buildings in Beirut And the Iranians are

972
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:54,520
Speaker 9: really nice?

973
00:53:55,520 --> 00:53:57,799
Speaker 5: Did you hear any music there? Almost felt like I

974
00:53:57,800 --> 00:53:58,480
Speaker 5: heard some music there?

975
00:53:58,480 --> 00:54:00,680
Speaker 3: And any man Ryan had a vision to melt down

976
00:54:00,840 --> 00:54:04,120
Speaker 3: unfolded at MSNBC as well. It wasn't confined just to

977
00:54:04,160 --> 00:54:08,320
Speaker 3: the podcast spaces. Let's roll the Heartbreak from Tom Nichols

978
00:54:08,320 --> 00:54:09,120
Speaker 3: here at six.

979
00:54:09,719 --> 00:54:13,319
Speaker 9: How you characterize this kind of settlement other than the

980
00:54:13,360 --> 00:54:17,279
Speaker 9: Iranians got what they wanted, the Americans didn't, and that's

981
00:54:17,280 --> 00:54:18,359
Speaker 9: where we're going from here.

982
00:54:18,840 --> 00:54:21,040
Speaker 6: And then Higar, what does that mean for the Lebanese?

983
00:54:21,480 --> 00:54:24,440
Speaker 12: Yeah, it's a disaster actually in so many ways. So

984
00:54:24,760 --> 00:54:27,879
Speaker 12: Tom mentioned here that the Israelis are now being held back,

985
00:54:27,960 --> 00:54:30,000
Speaker 12: and it sounds a lot of people it sounds like

986
00:54:30,000 --> 00:54:31,680
Speaker 12: a ceasfire would be a good thing, right Normally, that

987
00:54:31,680 --> 00:54:34,160
Speaker 12: sounds like something you'd want in Lebanon or anywhere. But

988
00:54:34,200 --> 00:54:36,560
Speaker 12: the fact is that if we focus on Lebanon specifically,

989
00:54:36,920 --> 00:54:38,640
Speaker 12: it's not there's no deal.

990
00:54:39,640 --> 00:54:43,680
Speaker 3: Over on Twitter and Telegram and Facebook, it's continuing a pace.

991
00:54:44,080 --> 00:54:47,880
Speaker 3: Put up C three for some instructive elements of this one.

992
00:54:48,280 --> 00:54:48,719
Speaker 5: Here's one.

993
00:54:48,800 --> 00:54:53,359
Speaker 3: Everyone, and I mean everyone in Israel feels a profound

994
00:54:53,440 --> 00:54:58,719
Speaker 3: sense of betrayal today from all across the political spectrum,

995
00:54:58,920 --> 00:55:04,399
Speaker 3: from every walk of life. Everyone history proves, says Michael

996
00:55:04,440 --> 00:55:07,640
Speaker 3: Laura and the former ambassador to Washington, Israel has no

997
00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:12,279
Speaker 3: choice but to risk an open confrontation with Trump. An

998
00:55:12,320 --> 00:55:16,439
Speaker 3: apology from your American Jewish parents ran in the times

999
00:55:16,440 --> 00:55:18,640
Speaker 3: of Israel. We are here, among other things, to defend

1000
00:55:18,680 --> 00:55:21,319
Speaker 3: you too. In the end, that this is your real

1001
00:55:21,360 --> 00:55:24,279
Speaker 3: home that she's addressing wit Coffin Kushner, whose real home

1002
00:55:24,360 --> 00:55:26,839
Speaker 3: is the United States of America. This is weird, and

1003
00:55:26,880 --> 00:55:30,200
Speaker 3: we are guarding it for you and for your future generations.

1004
00:55:30,280 --> 00:55:36,600
Speaker 3: And you turn your backs on us like this, simply losers. Unfortunately,

1005
00:55:36,719 --> 00:55:39,120
Speaker 3: she goes when we were wrong, we became comfortable, and

1006
00:55:39,160 --> 00:55:41,680
Speaker 3: over the past two decades we fell asleep at the wheel.

1007
00:55:42,200 --> 00:55:44,719
Speaker 3: We missed the signs, and we owe you an apology.

1008
00:55:45,239 --> 00:55:48,600
Speaker 3: Israel was winning war after war, building up its economy,

1009
00:55:49,160 --> 00:55:52,719
Speaker 3: growing in Torah and Mitzbot. At the same time, the West,

1010
00:55:52,880 --> 00:55:56,520
Speaker 3: especially American and Europe, was falling into an abyss of

1011
00:55:56,560 --> 00:56:04,000
Speaker 3: immorality and godlessness. Jerusalem Post had quote sold their brothers

1012
00:56:04,400 --> 00:56:08,839
Speaker 3: Israeli right wing figures brand Witkoff Kushner as losers over

1013
00:56:08,920 --> 00:56:12,480
Speaker 3: Iran deal. Kushner Witcoff really coming in for some serious

1014
00:56:12,520 --> 00:56:13,120
Speaker 3: abuse here.

1015
00:56:13,239 --> 00:56:14,680
Speaker 6: It's tough. It's tough to be done.

1016
00:56:15,320 --> 00:56:18,760
Speaker 3: Laura Lumer not taking it well. She watched a clip

1017
00:56:18,760 --> 00:56:19,799
Speaker 3: of the World Cup.

1018
00:56:21,160 --> 00:56:21,520
Speaker 5: Iran.

1019
00:56:21,800 --> 00:56:24,080
Speaker 3: After scoring an equalizer, one of their players did the

1020
00:56:24,120 --> 00:56:27,080
Speaker 3: old pistol thing to the ground and to the crowd.

1021
00:56:28,320 --> 00:56:29,640
Speaker 5: And Umer said that well.

1022
00:56:29,760 --> 00:56:33,920
Speaker 3: Lumer replied, Lumer insane that these freaks are allowed to

1023
00:56:33,960 --> 00:56:38,040
Speaker 3: come to the US. By the way, they detained the

1024
00:56:38,040 --> 00:56:41,319
Speaker 3: guy who scored the goal for like seven hours and

1025
00:56:41,360 --> 00:56:44,080
Speaker 3: he still scored, and they wouldn't They were not even

1026
00:56:44,160 --> 00:56:46,759
Speaker 3: letting the Iranians sleep here like they have to fly

1027
00:56:46,840 --> 00:56:48,200
Speaker 3: in and fly immediately back out.

1028
00:56:48,560 --> 00:56:52,520
Speaker 4: But Jared Kushner and Steve Whitkoff are negotiating with them simultaneously,

1029
00:56:52,920 --> 00:56:55,200
Speaker 4: and we're cutting a deal with them three hundred billion

1030
00:56:55,200 --> 00:56:59,680
Speaker 4: dollars for economic development, unfreezing assets, lifting sanctions, and you

1031
00:56:59,719 --> 00:57:04,000
Speaker 4: can see why the tears are flowing, no question about it.

1032
00:57:04,480 --> 00:57:07,600
Speaker 6: My question is really the rallying.

1033
00:57:07,200 --> 00:57:09,680
Speaker 4: Around Trump that some of his biggest critics in the

1034
00:57:09,760 --> 00:57:12,880
Speaker 4: last twenty four hours have done since February.

1035
00:57:13,680 --> 00:57:15,879
Speaker 6: You look at that and he just asked, what did

1036
00:57:15,920 --> 00:57:18,480
Speaker 6: you think was going to happen? What did you think

1037
00:57:18,560 --> 00:57:19,280
Speaker 6: was going to happen?

1038
00:57:19,320 --> 00:57:22,840
Speaker 4: Were you so confident that Donald Trump was going to

1039
00:57:22,920 --> 00:57:26,000
Speaker 4: do the full netan Yahoo? And I mean you and

1040
00:57:26,040 --> 00:57:29,040
Speaker 4: I obviously still have criticisms of what.

1041
00:57:28,960 --> 00:57:29,800
Speaker 6: Trump is doing.

1042
00:57:29,840 --> 00:57:31,960
Speaker 4: It's not as though we're like, wow, man, Donald Trump

1043
00:57:32,160 --> 00:57:32,880
Speaker 4: such a realist.

1044
00:57:32,920 --> 00:57:35,480
Speaker 6: He's really given the finger to the neo conservatives. So

1045
00:57:35,640 --> 00:57:37,840
Speaker 6: he did the war. He did the war.

1046
00:57:38,280 --> 00:57:40,400
Speaker 4: But if you're Donald Trump, you're probably looking at Mark

1047
00:57:40,480 --> 00:57:42,960
Speaker 4: Levin now and you're like, huh, maybe I shouldn't.

1048
00:57:42,560 --> 00:57:42,960
Speaker 5: Have listened to you.

1049
00:57:44,320 --> 00:57:47,320
Speaker 3: Yes, and I a lot you're hearing on that a

1050
00:57:47,320 --> 00:57:53,120
Speaker 3: lot in the Israeli political class, that net Nyahuo sold

1051
00:57:53,120 --> 00:57:56,760
Speaker 3: Trump a bridge, Yeah, Trump bought it, and that he's

1052
00:57:56,760 --> 00:57:58,680
Speaker 3: not going to be able to sell Trump any more bridges,

1053
00:58:00,720 --> 00:58:02,360
Speaker 3: and that he's really burned that bridge.

1054
00:58:02,600 --> 00:58:05,760
Speaker 5: In fact, put up C four.

1055
00:58:06,320 --> 00:58:09,840
Speaker 3: I meant, Siegel, who's you know, the journalist who is

1056
00:58:10,440 --> 00:58:15,120
Speaker 3: closest to President Trump. I'm into Prime Minister Benjamin at

1057
00:58:15,200 --> 00:58:20,560
Speaker 3: Yahoo posted in Hebrew, which Sager helpfully translated here. Claude

1058
00:58:20,560 --> 00:58:23,040
Speaker 3: helps Sager translate. Of course, I mean, I'm not claiming

1059
00:58:23,080 --> 00:58:30,880
Speaker 3: Sager speaks Hebrew. Finding that the support for Trump is collapsing,

1060
00:58:30,920 --> 00:58:34,840
Speaker 3: within three weeks, he went from what plus basically twenty

1061
00:58:34,840 --> 00:58:37,120
Speaker 3: five minus twenty five you know, give her take a

1062
00:58:37,120 --> 00:58:40,920
Speaker 3: few like an absolutely incredible turnaround.

1063
00:58:41,480 --> 00:58:46,400
Speaker 5: Trump hates it when people don't like him, So as jd.

1064
00:58:46,400 --> 00:58:51,440
Speaker 3: Events shares this information with him, I think Trump's position

1065
00:58:51,520 --> 00:58:53,560
Speaker 3: is probably just going to harden.

1066
00:58:54,880 --> 00:58:56,120
Speaker 5: On this question.

1067
00:58:56,800 --> 00:58:58,960
Speaker 3: I don't think this is going to soften him. Like

1068
00:58:59,040 --> 00:59:02,560
Speaker 3: he likes people who dislikes people who dislike him. It's

1069
00:59:02,600 --> 00:59:08,400
Speaker 3: pretty much that simple. He was fantasizing recently about maybe

1070
00:59:08,440 --> 00:59:10,520
Speaker 3: he'd run for a prime minister in Israel because he

1071
00:59:10,560 --> 00:59:12,560
Speaker 3: has ninety nine percent approval rating over there.

1072
00:59:12,560 --> 00:59:13,680
Speaker 5: That was several weeks ago.

1073
00:59:14,520 --> 00:59:17,720
Speaker 3: I think that his campaign is much less tenable at

1074
00:59:17,720 --> 00:59:20,960
Speaker 3: this point if.

1075
00:59:20,080 --> 00:59:20,880
Speaker 5: He wanted to run.

1076
00:59:21,320 --> 00:59:21,640
Speaker 7: Now.

1077
00:59:22,800 --> 00:59:25,840
Speaker 3: This has actual, i think practical, real world implications here

1078
00:59:26,520 --> 00:59:33,040
Speaker 3: because the domestic politics now inside Israel are going to

1079
00:59:33,160 --> 00:59:38,400
Speaker 3: push not just Netnahu but other candidates for prime minister

1080
00:59:39,520 --> 00:59:44,480
Speaker 3: to try to draw daylight between themselves and the United States.

1081
00:59:44,520 --> 00:59:46,960
Speaker 3: For decades, the way that you became prime minister in

1082
00:59:47,000 --> 00:59:49,840
Speaker 3: Israel was to say, I am the most loyal to

1083
00:59:49,880 --> 00:59:53,160
Speaker 3: the president. The president likes me the most, and so

1084
00:59:53,280 --> 00:59:56,000
Speaker 3: I will forge the best relationship with the United States.

1085
00:59:56,280 --> 00:59:58,080
Speaker 3: Like that was the thing that you would argue now

1086
00:59:58,160 --> 01:00:00,680
Speaker 3: and then you have your position for and against the

1087
01:00:00,720 --> 01:00:04,360
Speaker 3: different domestic policies. But when it came to the foreign policy,

1088
01:00:04,400 --> 01:00:07,320
Speaker 3: the idea was I am the one that can build

1089
01:00:07,360 --> 01:00:09,800
Speaker 3: a relationship with the United States, and men yeah would

1090
01:00:09,800 --> 01:00:12,160
Speaker 3: always say, truck, just leave the Americans to me. I

1091
01:00:12,240 --> 01:00:16,400
Speaker 3: know how to work the Americans. Now, nen Yaho is

1092
01:00:16,400 --> 01:00:19,480
Speaker 3: more popular than Trump, and nen Yao is not very popular,

1093
01:00:19,960 --> 01:00:22,880
Speaker 3: so net Yaho's incentivized to say I am the one

1094
01:00:23,320 --> 01:00:26,040
Speaker 3: who will stand up to Trump.

1095
01:00:27,760 --> 01:00:29,440
Speaker 5: Then what does he have to do do?

1096
01:00:29,560 --> 01:00:33,520
Speaker 3: Something does he continue the war in Lebanon he refuse

1097
01:00:33,600 --> 01:00:37,840
Speaker 3: to withdraw troops, And then what does Trump do because

1098
01:00:39,120 --> 01:00:41,360
Speaker 3: if Iran says, well, then that's over our red line.

1099
01:00:41,360 --> 01:00:44,080
Speaker 3: We're attacking Israel. Does Trump now that net Yaho is

1100
01:00:44,120 --> 01:00:48,160
Speaker 3: fully broken with him? Does Trump attack Iran on Netnyaho's

1101
01:00:48,160 --> 01:00:51,200
Speaker 3: behalf if he's out campaigning against him, Or does Israel

1102
01:00:51,280 --> 01:00:53,560
Speaker 3: now have to wage a war against a run by

1103
01:00:53,600 --> 01:00:57,120
Speaker 3: itself with its as as we reported, they're down to

1104
01:00:57,200 --> 01:01:00,360
Speaker 3: double digit ballistic missile interceptors. They rely on the US

1105
01:01:00,440 --> 01:01:04,160
Speaker 3: Navy's ballistic missile interceptors, and in order to carry out

1106
01:01:04,200 --> 01:01:07,400
Speaker 3: their bombing runs on Iran, they need refueling help from

1107
01:01:07,400 --> 01:01:11,600
Speaker 3: the US. Recently, when they struck Iran, if you notice

1108
01:01:11,600 --> 01:01:16,120
Speaker 3: they did it from Western Iraq because they couldn't refuel.

1109
01:01:16,640 --> 01:01:21,320
Speaker 3: That's much more expensive. You're using expensive munitions. The munitions

1110
01:01:21,360 --> 01:01:23,840
Speaker 3: have a lower payload because they have to travel then

1111
01:01:24,320 --> 01:01:24,880
Speaker 3: much further.

1112
01:01:25,400 --> 01:01:27,760
Speaker 5: You know, if you can just fly right over top.

1113
01:01:28,320 --> 01:01:30,520
Speaker 3: Gianic B fifty two and just B two and just

1114
01:01:30,600 --> 01:01:35,400
Speaker 3: drop the heaviest stuff you've got, that's going to have

1115
01:01:35,440 --> 01:01:39,000
Speaker 3: the most impact. If you have to fire a missile

1116
01:01:39,000 --> 01:01:40,920
Speaker 3: from Western Iraq from a plane that has to then

1117
01:01:40,960 --> 01:01:43,720
Speaker 3: turn around and go home. It's easier to intercept, it's

1118
01:01:43,800 --> 01:01:46,000
Speaker 3: less accurate, and it's going to have a lower payload.

1119
01:01:46,840 --> 01:01:49,840
Speaker 3: So that's what Israel's left, and it's more against Iran.

1120
01:01:50,240 --> 01:01:52,880
Speaker 3: Iran still sitting with a bunch of its hypersonic ballistic

1121
01:01:52,880 --> 01:01:57,960
Speaker 3: missiles and Israel's depleted. But like I said, domestic politics

1122
01:01:57,960 --> 01:02:00,880
Speaker 3: push Netahu in that direction, but its disasters to his

1123
01:02:01,040 --> 01:02:05,040
Speaker 3: foreign policy, like he really screwed himself.

1124
01:02:06,160 --> 01:02:08,520
Speaker 4: And some of this is yet to be determined because

1125
01:02:08,760 --> 01:02:10,800
Speaker 4: we don't know. We've covered this over the course of

1126
01:02:10,880 --> 01:02:13,080
Speaker 4: the show today, like we don't know what happens in

1127
01:02:13,080 --> 01:02:15,680
Speaker 4: the next sixty days. We don't know if Trump actually

1128
01:02:15,720 --> 01:02:19,360
Speaker 4: does end up capitulating somewhat to Netsan Yahu things zoom

1129
01:02:19,520 --> 01:02:22,080
Speaker 4: in Lebanon. It all falls apart, but it's just less

1130
01:02:22,120 --> 01:02:25,360
Speaker 4: high profile, similar to what's happened in Gaza. He's able

1131
01:02:25,400 --> 01:02:27,120
Speaker 4: to get the deal, say he got the deal. He's

1132
01:02:27,160 --> 01:02:31,440
Speaker 4: trumpeted peace deals around the world that don't actually totally materialize.

1133
01:02:31,560 --> 01:02:33,600
Speaker 4: It's just the point that he's able to say I

1134
01:02:33,760 --> 01:02:36,520
Speaker 4: orchestrated X, Y and Z, and that's what he wants

1135
01:02:36,560 --> 01:02:38,920
Speaker 4: to do and do I think that he wants to

1136
01:02:38,960 --> 01:02:41,280
Speaker 4: have some long term solution to the problem. Is that

1137
01:02:41,360 --> 01:02:45,800
Speaker 4: his ideal, probably, but does he really care at the

1138
01:02:45,880 --> 01:02:47,720
Speaker 4: end of the day if that turns out to crumble.

1139
01:02:48,720 --> 01:02:50,440
Speaker 4: If he's also able to say I did this, I

1140
01:02:50,480 --> 01:02:53,000
Speaker 4: brought people to the table, they had all the incentives

1141
01:02:53,080 --> 01:02:55,400
Speaker 4: and they just didn't want to make a deal, that's

1142
01:02:55,440 --> 01:02:57,880
Speaker 4: also probably something he's satisfied with at the end of

1143
01:02:57,880 --> 01:03:00,960
Speaker 4: the day, less satisfied of worse than being able to

1144
01:03:00,960 --> 01:03:03,080
Speaker 4: be remembered as the president who brought peace to the

1145
01:03:03,080 --> 01:03:05,480
Speaker 4: Midlist or whatever. He thinks that his vision of piece

1146
01:03:05,480 --> 01:03:08,280
Speaker 4: in the Middle East looks like Mara Gaza, whatever that

1147
01:03:09,000 --> 01:03:11,240
Speaker 4: was or is actually because that seems to still be

1148
01:03:11,560 --> 01:03:11,960
Speaker 4: the plan.

1149
01:03:12,240 --> 01:03:14,439
Speaker 6: Hard to know. But anyway, all this is to say,

1150
01:03:14,640 --> 01:03:17,360
Speaker 6: you look at how people have been.

1151
01:03:17,200 --> 01:03:20,960
Speaker 4: Treating Trump, who are supporters of the robusts Israeli American

1152
01:03:21,000 --> 01:03:23,760
Speaker 4: Alliance over the last couple of months, like he is the.

1153
01:03:23,760 --> 01:03:25,360
Speaker 6: Hero, the visionary.

1154
01:03:25,640 --> 01:03:32,360
Speaker 4: All of his haters are in they are disintegrating the coalition,

1155
01:03:32,600 --> 01:03:38,160
Speaker 4: they're being selfish. The pushback is anti Trump, and now

1156
01:03:38,280 --> 01:03:40,480
Speaker 4: some of these same people are doing pushback and saying

1157
01:03:40,520 --> 01:03:43,480
Speaker 4: that Trump is abandoning Israel. They're furious you heard pet

1158
01:03:43,560 --> 01:03:45,160
Speaker 4: Wortz and Eli La who, by the way, we invited

1159
01:03:45,200 --> 01:03:46,560
Speaker 4: to come on the show today. We will keep asking

1160
01:03:46,640 --> 01:03:50,160
Speaker 4: him to come on because yeah, yeah, distant by marriage,

1161
01:03:50,160 --> 01:03:52,760
Speaker 4: I think, right, yeah, And so we want to bring

1162
01:03:52,840 --> 01:03:54,520
Speaker 4: somebody on who's going to make this.

1163
01:03:54,680 --> 01:03:56,040
Speaker 5: My cousin won't even come on the project.

1164
01:03:58,000 --> 01:04:00,800
Speaker 6: And so we'll keep we'll trying to make that happen.

1165
01:04:00,840 --> 01:04:03,840
Speaker 4: But they're furious that Trump said Syria might be a

1166
01:04:03,880 --> 01:04:07,960
Speaker 4: better Uh, Syria might have a better or might be

1167
01:04:08,000 --> 01:04:13,160
Speaker 4: a better protector of Lebanon or a guaranter of peace

1168
01:04:13,280 --> 01:04:15,280
Speaker 4: to some extent in Lebanon than Israel.

1169
01:04:16,000 --> 01:04:19,000
Speaker 6: That is infuriating, infuriating.

1170
01:04:19,040 --> 01:04:22,120
Speaker 3: Trump's kind of guys cares more about civilian casualties.

1171
01:04:22,280 --> 01:04:23,160
Speaker 6: It's a it's.

1172
01:04:23,040 --> 01:04:25,880
Speaker 4: A realist perspective though, right, like he's saying, here, you

1173
01:04:25,960 --> 01:04:29,360
Speaker 4: have a country that is able to relate to this

1174
01:04:29,440 --> 01:04:31,919
Speaker 4: kind of We can say it's dumb, but like it's

1175
01:04:32,760 --> 01:04:34,640
Speaker 4: These are the same people who were saying Trump was

1176
01:04:34,640 --> 01:04:37,200
Speaker 4: a genius for the last two months, So which is it?

1177
01:04:37,320 --> 01:04:39,040
Speaker 3: Also Siria is not going to do this, by the way,

1178
01:04:39,120 --> 01:04:43,680
Speaker 3: because Syria would rather have Israel fighting Hesbola in southern

1179
01:04:43,720 --> 01:04:48,600
Speaker 3: Lebanon than marching than bombing Damascus, and they continue to

1180
01:04:48,600 --> 01:04:53,520
Speaker 3: occupy goal On Heights and and and a lot of

1181
01:04:53,560 --> 01:04:57,080
Speaker 3: area north of that they're pushing like very close to Damascus.

1182
01:04:57,080 --> 01:04:57,400
Speaker 7: Like so.

1183
01:04:59,280 --> 01:05:01,919
Speaker 3: The second that Al Shara went in and took care

1184
01:05:01,960 --> 01:05:05,520
Speaker 3: of Hesbela, for which of course they can't remotely do,

1185
01:05:05,720 --> 01:05:08,440
Speaker 3: but let's say they did, then Israel would.

1186
01:05:08,240 --> 01:05:09,920
Speaker 5: Just start bombing Damascus.

1187
01:05:10,000 --> 01:05:13,200
Speaker 3: So like, it's interesting that even though Assad and al

1188
01:05:13,240 --> 01:05:18,040
Speaker 3: Shara are completely ideologically different and we're at war with

1189
01:05:18,080 --> 01:05:22,920
Speaker 3: each other, and that Israel saw Al Shara coming in

1190
01:05:22,960 --> 01:05:26,960
Speaker 3: as advantageous compared to Asad because Asad was part of

1191
01:05:26,960 --> 01:05:31,720
Speaker 3: the Axis of Resistance. He has the same geostrategic logic

1192
01:05:32,680 --> 01:05:37,520
Speaker 3: as Asad did to kind of allow either. And Mas

1193
01:05:37,560 --> 01:05:39,560
Speaker 3: has been pointing this out at drop side, either by

1194
01:05:39,680 --> 01:05:43,280
Speaker 3: neglect or by design, the supply lines between Iran and

1195
01:05:43,320 --> 01:05:50,360
Speaker 3: Hesbola seem intact because like you're seeing drone technology and

1196
01:05:49,880 --> 01:05:54,640
Speaker 3: other military equipment appearing in southern Lebanon that Iran only

1197
01:05:54,680 --> 01:05:58,960
Speaker 3: recently developed, which means it's getting from Iran somehow over

1198
01:05:59,040 --> 01:06:00,840
Speaker 3: to southern leben and the and the whole point of

1199
01:06:00,880 --> 01:06:04,120
Speaker 3: overthrowing a SOD for Israel was to cut off that

1200
01:06:04,200 --> 01:06:08,120
Speaker 3: supply line, but they then so weakened Siria that even

1201
01:06:08,160 --> 01:06:10,600
Speaker 3: if they wanted to, they can't like a SOD controls

1202
01:06:10,680 --> 01:06:14,080
Speaker 3: like it live been damaskets basically, and.

1203
01:06:14,040 --> 01:06:20,520
Speaker 4: Stop projecting your ideological shar Yeah, stop projecting your ideological

1204
01:06:20,520 --> 01:06:23,680
Speaker 4: wishes onto Trump, because he's going to reflect them temporarily

1205
01:06:23,720 --> 01:06:26,680
Speaker 4: at any given point, and then reflect your opponent temporarily

1206
01:06:26,720 --> 01:06:29,400
Speaker 4: at any given point, because he's not a hardened ideologue.

1207
01:06:29,440 --> 01:06:33,120
Speaker 4: So anytime you're claiming some big ideological victory with Trump,

1208
01:06:33,400 --> 01:06:35,360
Speaker 4: you're taking a risk because you're gonna have egg on

1209
01:06:35,400 --> 01:06:38,400
Speaker 4: your face in all likelihood three weeks later. Even people

1210
01:06:38,440 --> 01:06:40,439
Speaker 4: now who are saying Trump is giving Israel the middle

1211
01:06:40,480 --> 01:06:42,880
Speaker 4: finger will have egg on their face at some point

1212
01:06:42,920 --> 01:06:45,440
Speaker 4: again because he's going to do something nice to Nats

1213
01:06:45,480 --> 01:06:45,880
Speaker 4: and Yahoo.

1214
01:06:45,880 --> 01:06:47,840
Speaker 6: Get the man is not hardened ideologue.

1215
01:06:47,880 --> 01:06:50,680
Speaker 4: He is totally doing what he thinks is pragmatic at

1216
01:06:50,680 --> 01:06:53,280
Speaker 4: any giving point, and that logic can often be hard

1217
01:06:53,280 --> 01:06:56,480
Speaker 4: to follow. But if you're going to start mocking people

1218
01:06:56,560 --> 01:06:59,520
Speaker 4: for being wrong about Trump and being spurned by Trump,

1219
01:07:00,080 --> 01:07:03,080
Speaker 4: you will also end up being mocked and spurned by Trump.

1220
01:07:03,600 --> 01:07:05,919
Speaker 3: Last thing, because you know we're going to get moving.

1221
01:07:06,240 --> 01:07:12,560
Speaker 3: What is this doing to the Republican coalition? Like where

1222
01:07:12,760 --> 01:07:15,360
Speaker 3: like is Tucker kind of coming out on top here?

1223
01:07:17,320 --> 01:07:21,280
Speaker 3: Or is the break between Trump and the Tucker world

1224
01:07:21,840 --> 01:07:25,120
Speaker 3: so personal that even if they wind up on the

1225
01:07:25,160 --> 01:07:27,000
Speaker 3: same side again, it can't be repaired.

1226
01:07:27,080 --> 01:07:29,600
Speaker 5: Like what's what's the status here?

1227
01:07:29,640 --> 01:07:30,800
Speaker 4: I mean some of the same people we were just

1228
01:07:30,840 --> 01:07:33,080
Speaker 4: talking about were furious that Jdvance even went on Megan

1229
01:07:33,160 --> 01:07:33,760
Speaker 4: Kelly's show.

1230
01:07:34,320 --> 01:07:37,120
Speaker 5: Yes, right, Furious it would be dangerous even for him

1231
01:07:37,160 --> 01:07:37,480
Speaker 5: to do that.

1232
01:07:37,560 --> 01:07:40,440
Speaker 4: Curious furious about the fact that he sat down with

1233
01:07:40,440 --> 01:07:44,280
Speaker 4: somebody who's books critical, Yeah, got books, Ryan knows the ground,

1234
01:07:44,600 --> 01:07:47,840
Speaker 4: critical of this war. And one of the things that

1235
01:07:48,000 --> 01:07:50,000
Speaker 4: JD said to Megan issutries that he told Trump he

1236
01:07:50,040 --> 01:07:51,880
Speaker 4: was going on the show, and Trump said, absolutely, I

1237
01:07:51,920 --> 01:07:52,600
Speaker 4: love that that.

1238
01:07:52,720 --> 01:07:54,600
Speaker 6: JD said, h he'll say.

1239
01:07:54,520 --> 01:07:56,200
Speaker 4: Nice things about you when he agrees when you agree

1240
01:07:56,240 --> 01:07:57,720
Speaker 4: with him, and he'll say bad things about you when

1241
01:07:57,720 --> 01:07:58,280
Speaker 4: you don't agree with.

1242
01:07:58,320 --> 01:07:59,240
Speaker 6: Him as he is.

1243
01:07:59,400 --> 01:08:01,400
Speaker 5: And so a talk about Tucker, he's.

1244
01:08:01,240 --> 01:08:02,520
Speaker 6: Talking about the president.

1245
01:08:02,800 --> 01:08:05,600
Speaker 4: And so if I mean, you don't understand that at

1246
01:08:05,600 --> 01:08:08,040
Speaker 4: this point, then you just are blind to the last

1247
01:08:08,040 --> 01:08:08,840
Speaker 4: ten years of Trump.

1248
01:08:08,840 --> 01:08:10,680
Speaker 6: Meghan was like, yeah, I don't mind it.

1249
01:08:11,160 --> 01:08:13,520
Speaker 4: Because if you are watching trip closely, you kind of

1250
01:08:13,600 --> 01:08:14,680
Speaker 4: understand that's how this works.

1251
01:08:14,800 --> 01:08:15,760
Speaker 6: So I don't know.

1252
01:08:15,800 --> 01:08:19,120
Speaker 4: I think Tucker's so totally blackpilled by the war, which

1253
01:08:19,200 --> 01:08:21,640
Speaker 4: is something JD criticized people for being quote blackpilled, not

1254
01:08:21,720 --> 01:08:24,639
Speaker 4: Tucker by name, but being black pilled by the fact

1255
01:08:24,640 --> 01:08:26,800
Speaker 4: that the war was launched in the first place. I

1256
01:08:26,800 --> 01:08:28,800
Speaker 4: think there's some people who are just off the bandwagon

1257
01:08:28,920 --> 01:08:30,880
Speaker 4: because of that. I don't think mass he gets back

1258
01:08:30,920 --> 01:08:32,799
Speaker 4: in the coalition or Tucker gets back in the coalition.

1259
01:08:32,880 --> 01:08:35,160
Speaker 4: I think there's a thaw probably in some of these relationships.

1260
01:08:35,200 --> 01:08:36,920
Speaker 4: Even the fact that JD did go on Megan Sure

1261
01:08:36,960 --> 01:08:39,599
Speaker 4: yesterday says he's willing to take some of the questions

1262
01:08:39,640 --> 01:08:40,840
Speaker 4: and talk to some of the people who have been

1263
01:08:40,840 --> 01:08:45,000
Speaker 4: critical of the administration. So I don't think it's a

1264
01:08:45,200 --> 01:08:48,800
Speaker 4: complete disaster for the Mega Coalition in terms of like

1265
01:08:48,840 --> 01:08:50,160
Speaker 4: some people sticking around.

1266
01:08:50,240 --> 01:08:52,840
Speaker 6: But I also think just the decision to.

1267
01:08:52,880 --> 01:08:55,400
Speaker 4: Launch the war in and of itself was a bridge

1268
01:08:56,000 --> 01:08:58,559
Speaker 4: that was burned with a lot of people, period, and

1269
01:08:58,600 --> 01:09:00,400
Speaker 4: you're not gonna be able to recon shrucked that

1270
01:09:16,720 --> 01:09:16,760
Speaker 3: H