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Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're ready for some post

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Speaker 1: Thanksgiving winners. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesley

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Speaker 1: podcast studio with my friend Cynthia Freeland for.

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Speaker 2: A special holiday edition of our Picks.

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Speaker 1: That was the Colleen Wolf voice. We used to call

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Speaker 1: this man versus model. It was your computer model. You're

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Speaker 1: the busiest woman.

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Speaker 3: Not even this week. No, it's we all weird schedule,

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Speaker 3: so we have to it's the most fun week of

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Speaker 3: the year. I just do a lot of extra cooking,

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Speaker 3: which makes things very great.

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Speaker 1: Yes, but you're you know you're on the game day morning,

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Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving morning. We're putting this up on Thanksgiving morning.

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Speaker 1: We had game debut. We have all of our preview shows,

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Speaker 1: so please check that all out. And when I say

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Speaker 1: we're looking for post Thanksgiving winners, the reason I said that, Cynthia,

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Speaker 1: is because for this show, we decided, look, this is

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Speaker 1: going up pretty close to those games. Let's pick the

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Speaker 1: games after Thanksgiving. We picked three games every week against

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Speaker 1: the spread. Last week I kept my winning streak going

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Speaker 1: and I finished two and one, so eighth straight week

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Speaker 1: that I've had a winning record on this show. You

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Speaker 1: got back on the winning track. So that is good

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Speaker 1: to hear. Unfortunately, like, why are you shaking your head?

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Speaker 3: Oh no, I've just got a long way to go.

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Speaker 3: You know, I got a long way to go.

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Speaker 1: Okay, we'll do it then by picking some winners here, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you are up. Let's go first, give me the rams,

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Speaker 1: the rams to cover. Okay, that was one of the

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Speaker 1: ones I was thinking about. So I like that La r.

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Speaker 3: Versus car It's at Carolina. It's ten and a half points.

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Speaker 3: That's the last I saw. I don't even care if

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Speaker 3: you can bid that all the way up to thirteen.

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Speaker 3: I think they win. I think they win going away.

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Speaker 3: This is the best team in football right now against

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Speaker 3: a team that you know, they looked. It was a

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Speaker 3: very bad game that San Francisco. I mean just a

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Speaker 3: It was a tough, tough hang, yeah, tough hang for

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Speaker 3: that one. So I'm looking at that game and Carolina

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Speaker 3: caused some turnovers, we saw some weirds. I don't think

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Speaker 3: against Matthew Stafford and this offense and that defense is

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Speaker 3: not gonna look the same. So it might be boring,

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Speaker 3: but for different reasons.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that could be like a three score

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Speaker 1: game very easily. Carolina's defense if you're gonna beat the Rams,

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Speaker 1: you have to get some pressure on Matthew Stafford.

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Speaker 3: Like a lot of pressure on Matthew Stafford.

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Speaker 1: They don't get any pressure. Their linebackers struggling. I think

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Speaker 1: it could be bad against this tight end group. And

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Speaker 1: ultimately I don't think. I don't find the Carolina Panthers

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Speaker 1: frisky like that serious. That's serious of a football ti,

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Speaker 1: at least as a playoff. I think it was a beautiful.

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Speaker 3: Punt the Family Weekend. You need a pun.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So you pointed out the Rams that that was

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Speaker 1: one of the ones I was thinking about. Okay, they

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Speaker 1: were in a category I like a lot of games

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Speaker 1: this week, you do, I do? Okay, there was a

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Speaker 1: category of games, and I wanted to mix it up

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Speaker 1: between the categories. So I was gonna pick one, and

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Speaker 1: I was like, okay, I'll I won't pick the one

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Speaker 1: Cynthia's picking. That's how many games I like in this category?

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Speaker 1: Was you know, I'm really good and you did not

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Speaker 1: give like enough points like you could. You could give

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Speaker 1: thirteen points like you said, and it wouldn't be enough.

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Speaker 2: I would still take the Rams.

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Speaker 1: And so here's the category of teams I would throw

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Speaker 1: in that mix this week.

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Speaker 2: I'm only gonna take one of them. The Broncos.

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Speaker 1: I mean they're only getting six points against that Commanders team.

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Speaker 1: I'd be fine with that. The Seahawks. They're only getting

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Speaker 1: ten and a half points against Max Brosmer and the Vikings.

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Speaker 1: I think that could be one and you're free to

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Speaker 1: take one of those, because I'm not this is a

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Speaker 1: category of games.

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Speaker 2: The Rams would be in that mix.

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Speaker 1: But of that group of like the heavy favorites, who

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Speaker 1: I still think it's not enough.

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Speaker 2: Give me the Los Angeles Chargers.

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Speaker 1: Minus ten this week against the I don't want to

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Speaker 1: be around here anymore. Raiders offense and team, and I

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Speaker 1: know they fired Chip Kelly and maybe they get a

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Speaker 1: little fired coach bounced.

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Speaker 2: It's somehow better with Greg Olsen.

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Speaker 1: But I think the Chargers coming off of By, they've

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Speaker 1: been a different team, especially on defense at home. We

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Speaker 1: saw this Chargers Raiders matchups earlier in the year. The

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Speaker 1: Raiders offense had nothing going on in that game. I

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Speaker 1: have no reason to believe that that offensive line can

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Speaker 1: stop Tully and Khalil Mack in a daf AOA and

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Speaker 1: everything going on with the Chargers defense.

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Speaker 3: Pretty sure Omari and Hampton will be back in this

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Speaker 3: one too, which you know that's that's a plus. I'm

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Speaker 3: with you on the entire analysis. I'm with you if

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Speaker 3: the price were bid up to even more points as

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Speaker 3: a differential between the two, I don't think that the

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Speaker 3: coach bump that would potentially happen here is gonna. I

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Speaker 3: don't know if O lines get the coach, but I

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Speaker 3: don't know if they get the memo on that. Maybe

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Speaker 3: some skill players do, but like I think the O

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Speaker 3: line and as good as we've seen Ashton gent TV

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Speaker 3: in general, because you'd have to run against the chargers

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Speaker 3: to have some sort of, you know, answer to that

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Speaker 3: pressure that you're talking about. He gets hit behind the

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Speaker 3: line of scrimmage on pretty much all of his yards.

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Speaker 3: If the amount of yards he's actually run for versus

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Speaker 3: the ones that have kind of as positive, it's massive.

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Speaker 1: So it's it's just yeah, and he's not in the

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Speaker 1: offensive line. Coach is Pete Carroll's son, so you're not

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Speaker 1: getting the bump and you're not firing your son. We

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Speaker 1: talked a bit a little bit about this on the

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Speaker 1: previous that's the right move. I do feel bad and

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Speaker 1: you cannot fire your son.

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Speaker 2: You have a whole round.

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Speaker 1: Not firing my son. I'm saying if Pete Carroll right

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Speaker 1: got it. It was some neo baby stuff, not probably

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Speaker 1: the right hire. But ultimately you got to go down

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Speaker 1: as a family. And I'm gonna go up picking against

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Speaker 1: the Raiders maybe every week. They are one of the

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Speaker 1: worst NFL teams I've ever seen. I actually was surprised

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Speaker 1: this number was so low. So that's the team I'll

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Speaker 1: pick out of that category of games. That's my first pick.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 3: I'm not even get started on their draft class because

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Speaker 3: if you look at oh not good anyways.

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Speaker 2: All right, you can go and you could pick from

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Speaker 2: that category.

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Speaker 3: I'm pick from that cat.

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Speaker 2: Oh you are. I saw your eyes light up.

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Speaker 3: I became prepared because I got real serious this week.

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Speaker 2: Okay, you know I really had a winning week last week.

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Speaker 3: You want to I got to build on my wins, right,

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Speaker 3: So Denver, you talked about that, Yeah, so okay, yeah,

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Speaker 3: I'm sure you're gonna give me a little bit of bait.

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Speaker 3: I'm going to take it six points, all right. So

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Speaker 3: number one, Denver's defense. You know, everyone we watched Houston's

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Speaker 3: defense in the Big Time spotlight against the Bills. Denver's

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Speaker 3: defense like, excuse me, do you not remember what we

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Speaker 3: did to Patrick Mahomes. I have an issue to raise you, right,

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Speaker 3: So I'm looking at that and saying and then look like,

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Speaker 3: I love dan Quinn. He's a really nice man. I

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Speaker 3: don't think his defense can has enough even if they

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Speaker 3: kind of get it all together to stop even though

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Speaker 3: maybe it's just the fourth quarter for Bonix, that's maybe

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Speaker 3: all he needs. But I think this is where Bonix

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Speaker 3: takes this step and kind of turns this corner of

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Speaker 3: like only the screen pass, dude. I think he goes

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Speaker 3: now and takes a step forward. This is a defense

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Speaker 3: to do it against. Just watch what the Lions did

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Speaker 3: to this secondary before. They don't have a lot of

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Speaker 3: answers for you know, even any downfield past.

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Speaker 1: So I hope the listeners saw that and the viewers.

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Speaker 1: Cynthia Frielan hit poor dan Quinn with he's a nice man.

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Speaker 3: He is so nice.

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Speaker 1: But that's when that happens. You're in trouble when Cynthia

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Speaker 1: hits you with it. He's a nice man. Things aren't

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Speaker 1: going well. You were feeling bad for Pete Carroll, You're

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Speaker 1: I would love to run some analytics on how often

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Speaker 1: a guy who you say is a nice man or

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Speaker 1: you feel bad for covers the number. I bet it's

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Speaker 1: very low, and I'm with you. That line was weird.

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Speaker 1: It did feel like bait. Why was the Broncos only

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Speaker 1: six points? I know it's there on the road and everything,

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Speaker 1: but it's supposed to be Mario to this week. It's

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Speaker 1: that defense of the Commanders. I think the Broncos offense,

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Speaker 1: by the way, might be turning in a corner. They

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Speaker 1: played pretty well in that game against I think they're

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Speaker 1: going to be good the.

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Speaker 2: Rest of the way.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I'm going to go to what's my favorite pick.

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Speaker 1: It's a Texans. They're getting four and a half points

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Speaker 1: in Indianapolis, and I think they're gonna win straight up.

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Speaker 2: And I don't feel.

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Speaker 1: Incredibly confident about them winning straight up, but I do

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Speaker 1: feel great about them getting four and a half points

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Speaker 1: a weird number. I think it's a defensive game, and

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Speaker 1: I do get that. The underlying numbers and maybe your

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Speaker 1: model reflects that somewhat. I don't really know, are really

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Speaker 1: positive on the Colts offense, but they're also really positive

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Speaker 1: on the Texans defense. Overall, it is a transcendent defense.

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Speaker 1: And I do think getting CJ. Stroud is going to

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Speaker 1: really help this offense out. As we're taping, it's not official,

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Speaker 1: but he is expected to come back. And the thing

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Speaker 1: that's really impressed me about the Texans lately with Davis

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Speaker 1: Mills has not been Mills in the passing game well,

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Speaker 1: that is always impressive, and he has gotten me.

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Speaker 2: Their running game has been better. It's been a pretty

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Speaker 2: good running game.

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Speaker 1: With Woodie Marx on our show game debut, I've been

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Speaker 1: on a little bit of a there we have write

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Speaker 1: this down with player property.

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Speaker 3: Year great streak.

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Speaker 1: What he marks over fifty five and a half rushing yards,

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Speaker 1: that's a little extra for this show bonus. I like

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Speaker 1: he's been running great and I think they've got some

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Speaker 1: cohesion running the ball front and the Colts on their

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Speaker 1: defensive line, they're not the same without the Forest Buckner.

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Speaker 2: So man, I think this Texan season is turning around.

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Speaker 2: I really do.

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Speaker 3: I think the four and a half is good. Do

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Speaker 3: I think they win straight up? Probably not, but I

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Speaker 3: I don't feel great about that. That's that's what the models.

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Speaker 3: My model does have four and a half points. I

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Speaker 3: have a three point win for Indianapolis. But it's more

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Speaker 3: like a few point six points, which people hate fractional points,

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Speaker 3: but whatever, I.

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Speaker 1: Like it because it's closer to my side two point

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Speaker 1: six saying you're covering that number best too.

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Speaker 2: That's all we need on this show for.

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Speaker 3: Melly, And I think I'm looking at Houston, and remember

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Speaker 3: this is they have two matchups left with the Colts,

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Speaker 3: so Houston still has the entire division to potentially win.

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Speaker 1: Here.

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Speaker 3: They have everything to play for. They're coming off of

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Speaker 3: that big high against the Bills with something tangible, meaning

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Speaker 3: they found ways to just get Josh, who's a better

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Speaker 3: quarterback than almost anyone they'll face, better quarterback than Daniel Jones.

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Speaker 3: That's not shade, it's just a fact, and you're going

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Speaker 3: to get him off his mark, and they're not dis

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Speaker 3: Daniel Jones can run the ballt in nowhere near what

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Speaker 3: Josh Allen can do, but you can get Josh Allen

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Speaker 3: office game. So I think that the technical defense is

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Speaker 3: real feisty.

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Speaker 1: You know what I thought though, as you're taught too,

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Speaker 1: it supports your point. Shorter rest for the Colts do

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Speaker 1: like a little extra rest for the Texans. And then

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Speaker 1: I'm thinking about how that game played out against the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs last week. Ninety snaps for the Colts defense. So

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Speaker 1: that's a tired defense on less rest. It's just like

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Speaker 1: another small reason. It's more about the eyeball test that

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Speaker 1: number one, I think this is a special defense. And

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Speaker 1: number two, I think the offense is improving from disastrous

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Speaker 1: yep to competent like twenty first, you know what I mean,

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Speaker 1: just like looking like a normal offense. Jaden Higgins starting

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Speaker 1: to play better, Nico Collins looking like Nico Collins, like

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Speaker 1: everything about it. They're just looking respectable. That's all I need.

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Speaker 1: Let's go Texans. Make my boy Walker happy?

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Speaker 2: All right? Your third pick?

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Speaker 3: All right? I mean I'm gonna go all over here.

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Speaker 3: You you kind of talked about Seattle.

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Speaker 2: Okay, you're doing it.

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Speaker 3: I just think it's an undervalued number, you know. And

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Speaker 3: if I see a mispraise stockma snatch it up. Because

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Speaker 3: ten and a half points at home against Minnesota. I

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Speaker 3: don't know if you saw the weird when you start

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Speaker 3: to see like strange things coming out in the media,

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Speaker 3: you know, like the home.

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Speaker 2: Life isn't good there for Minnesota.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and Minnesota it's like some weirdo stuff and I

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Speaker 3: you know, I'm cool, Max Brosmer Okay, Like I kind

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Speaker 3: of feel bad for the kid, Like, you know, you're

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Speaker 3: coming in and justin Jefferson's not had the year that

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Speaker 3: he would have liked to had, and you know, you

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Speaker 3: see this frustration and these things and like all the

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Speaker 3: stuff spoiling over with the most. Maybe he needs that

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Speaker 3: vo Max, and maybe needs to you know, start tracking.

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Speaker 2: I think it might.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think it'll be an upgrade. I think

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Speaker 1: it might be an upgrade at quarterback. So that wouldn't

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Speaker 1: be the reason. No, But we also don't.

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Speaker 3: From because it's a bad circum It's you know, if

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Speaker 3: the starter, if the backups better than the starter, they'd

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Speaker 3: beat the starter. But like you know, it's just a

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Speaker 3: hard situation to come into. You it would be better

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Speaker 3: if they were, you know, just resting everyone Week eighteen style.

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Speaker 2: But you know, we got six games to play.

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Speaker 1: I heard I was actually a Vikings beat writer write

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Speaker 1: something like the only positive from this Packers game is,

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Speaker 1: you know, the next only half Thanksgiving and we're hitting

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Speaker 1: the end of the season, and I'm thinking not really,

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Speaker 1: six games is a long time in the NFL. Six

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Speaker 1: games is an eternity and this Seahawks' defense is just

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Speaker 1: going to swallow up that injured Vikings offensive line hole.

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Speaker 1: So even if Brozemer plays well and I think he

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Speaker 1: might have something, I think they like him a little bit.

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Speaker 3: I like him a little.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I've no might like him better than Jajim McCrae.

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Speaker 2: I just I just.

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Speaker 3: I don't know about that.

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Speaker 2: I like ten and a half.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I just think that Seattle's a lot better.

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Speaker 1: I think these this Rams and Seahawks, these two teams

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Speaker 1: are not only the best teams in the NFL. I

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Speaker 1: think they're the best teams in the NFL with like

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Speaker 1: a tier below to whoever is three and four. And

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Speaker 1: so that's why I think you're right.

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Speaker 3: The good news is that I feel so much more

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Speaker 3: wide open than any other recent season. So maybe we

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Speaker 3: won't see like a repeat of the same super Bowl,

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Speaker 3: you know. Like I feel like I've seen the Chiefs

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Speaker 3: a lot, seeing the Eagles a good amount, you know.

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Speaker 1: I maybe we see some Rams in there, but it's

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Speaker 1: been a while, but maybe some new Blood's been five

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Speaker 1: years since the re.

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Speaker 3: I'm just saying, so, like be fun to see different colors,

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Speaker 3: you know.

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Speaker 2: Okay, So I have one more pick to go.

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Speaker 1: Now. I have certain rules. You have rules, you know,

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Speaker 1: maxims that I meant to go by. Okay, one of

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Speaker 1: them is don't pick against your own team, because then, oh,

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Speaker 1: you don't really enjoy either way. And I broke that

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Speaker 1: rule earlier this season when I went against the Patriots,

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Speaker 1: and you know what they covered that week, and so

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Speaker 1: I was wrong and I was annoyed by it. So

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Speaker 1: I will not pick against the Patriots this week. They

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Speaker 1: are favored by seven and a half against the Giants.

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Speaker 1: But I'm just gonna be real. For people who like

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Speaker 1: people who like real people like extra picks too, They're like,

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Speaker 1: why only three?

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Speaker 2: Give us more? We've been kind of giving a few

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Speaker 2: more of this this week.

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Speaker 1: I really like the Giants to cover that number this week,

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Speaker 1: but I'm not gonna make that one of them.

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Speaker 3: Don't do that.

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Speaker 2: I just don't know.

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Speaker 1: I want to enjoy it if the Patriots win big,

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Speaker 1: but I don't think they will because their offensive line

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Speaker 1: was struggling to run, block, and really pass protect before

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Speaker 1: losing the entire left side of their offensive line. They

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Speaker 1: can't run the ball right now in general, and their

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Speaker 1: defensive line quietly not nearly the same without Milton Williams.

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Speaker 1: I think the Giants are a very frisky team. I

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Speaker 1: just think it's gonna be a good ball game. And

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Speaker 1: seven and a half is too many points, So putting

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Speaker 1: that to them, you're with me. Okay, here's the final category,

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Speaker 1: and it's one of the maxims. You just look at

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Speaker 1: the lines, and especially on lines that are like six

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Speaker 1: and above or so, you're like, this NFL team has

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Speaker 1: not earned the right to be favored by six points

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Speaker 1: in any game. And I don't even care what the

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Speaker 1: opponent is. I don't care about the situation. It's just

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Speaker 1: you haven't earned the right to be six point favorites.

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Speaker 1: There's two candidates, and so maybe we'll talk them through,

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Speaker 1: but I like them both. The Miami Dolphins are six

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Speaker 1: point favorites over the Saints. They're the Miami Dolphins, and

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Speaker 1: I gotta admit the team I'm leaning towards, even though

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Speaker 1: they're seven and four. The Jacksonville Jaguars, I don't know

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Speaker 1: I've earned the right to be six and a half

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Speaker 1: point favorites in Tennessee, and I know the.

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Speaker 2: Opponent should matter to me.

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Speaker 1: But I've watched the Titans the last week. They've gotten

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Speaker 1: a little bit better, and it's it's a division matchup.

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Speaker 1: The Titans are at home too, so in this case,

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins are at home, but the Jaguars are six

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Speaker 1: and a half point favorites on the road. Neither of

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Speaker 1: these teams I feel like have earned the right to

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Speaker 1: be this big a favorite. Just blindly, I will take

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Speaker 1: the other side in these games. I think I'm leaning

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Speaker 1: towards the Titans covering. And look, they covered last week again,

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks last I mean you like the Titans last

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Speaker 1: week to cover. Yeah, I think that they cover again.

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Speaker 1: And I talked you out of it right the top

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Speaker 1: out of it. It got murky, It got murky.

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Speaker 3: But I'm I'm, I actually am with you, Like I

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Speaker 3: think there's something about this team, and I don't. I

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Speaker 3: don't like you're getting special teams. Things to start happening.

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Speaker 3: They're they're digging down, they're you know, like it's it's

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Speaker 3: one of those things where it's like, well, what do

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Speaker 3: we got to lose. Let's figure this out, you know, like,

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Speaker 3: let's have a little fun. Doesn't mean you win games, no,

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Speaker 3: but it means you keep it closer.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And I do like the Saints to cover that

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Speaker 1: six despite how poorly they've played, they've kind of been

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Speaker 1: in every other week team. You might get a better

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Speaker 1: performing out of them against the Dolphins, but ultimately, yes,

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Speaker 1: I'm going to go with the Titans, who, to me,

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Speaker 1: eye test wise, they've just been better overall defensively, came

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Speaker 1: wards playing pretty well, and more than anything, I don't

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Speaker 1: know what this Jaguars team is. No one does they

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Speaker 1: just do you think they know their success rate on

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Speaker 1: design runs? Last week we're twenty percent, and yet they

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Speaker 1: had a couple big runs, like I don't even know,

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Speaker 1: so I don't know what to do with them, and

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Speaker 1: so it's division game.

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Speaker 2: I think the Titans keep it close. That's what we

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Speaker 2: do here, that's.

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Speaker 3: What we do.

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Speaker 2: We give winners.

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Speaker 3: We love winners.

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Speaker 1: Eight straight weeks for me, you're feeling good. Crushing me

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Speaker 1: on game debut, everyone check that out. That's on NFL

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Speaker 1: Network throughout the weekend, by the way, and it's also

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Speaker 1: on YouTube. I should point out they call it game

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Speaker 1: Picks on YouTube, but they put our show up on

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Speaker 1: YouTube it would say like week thirteen game Picks. So

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Speaker 1: if you're watching us on YouTube the NFL Daily, thank you,

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Speaker 1: and you're just head over there and then head over

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Speaker 1: to Cynthia's channel numbers game. Yeah, and then you got

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Speaker 1: the show with Logan Ryan too, NFL. NFL like you, Cynthia,

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Speaker 1: the hardest working woman in.

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Speaker 3: The buildings as the man who literally works seven days week.

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Speaker 3: It's a nice compliment.

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Speaker 1: Let's get out of here, let's go eat some turkey.

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Speaker 1: Uh yeah. Has a great Thanksgiving and a great weekend because.

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Speaker 2: We'll be back.

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Speaker 1: We'll actually be back next in this feed Black Friday.

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Speaker 1: So we're doing a recap of the Thanksgiving games and

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Speaker 1: the Black Friday game. Come have some fun with us. Then,

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Speaker 1: thank you, Cynthia.

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Speaker 3: Thanksgiving, Thanksgiving m