WEBVTT - Militia Member Convicted in First Jan. 6 Trial 0:00:03.240 --> 0:00:16.320 This is Bloomberg Law with June Brusso from Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:21.920 Texas militia member was the first to go to trial 0:00:21.960 --> 0:00:26.200 in the January six insurrection. Prosecutors said that guy Refit 0:00:26.440 --> 0:00:29.280 quote lit the fire of the very first group of 0:00:29.360 --> 0:00:32.560 rioters that breached the Capitol, and they not only had 0:00:32.640 --> 0:00:36.080 photos of him storming the Capitol, they had video from 0:00:36.120 --> 0:00:47.720 his own helmet camera. Refit had the sad distinction of 0:00:47.760 --> 0:00:51.760 being turned in by his own teenage son, Jackson. Reffit 0:00:51.920 --> 0:00:54.800 told CNN his father had threatened him and his sister 0:00:55.120 --> 0:00:58.959 as it became clear that law enforcement was hunting down rioters. 0:00:59.520 --> 0:01:02.920 He said to choose a side or die, and if 0:01:02.960 --> 0:01:06.119 I chose a certain side, I would cross a line 0:01:06.200 --> 0:01:08.119 and he would do something he didn't want to do. 0:01:08.680 --> 0:01:11.720 The jury took less than four hours to convict Refit 0:01:11.800 --> 0:01:16.440 of all charges, including obstruction of Congress, a crucial victory 0:01:16.480 --> 0:01:19.560 for the Johnstice Department. Joining me is Eric Larson, a 0:01:19.600 --> 0:01:22.920 Bloomberg legal reporter who covered the trial. Eric tell us 0:01:22.920 --> 0:01:27.000 what the charges against Refit were so. Mr ruff It 0:01:27.280 --> 0:01:30.760 was accused of basically leading the first crowd of writers 0:01:30.920 --> 0:01:33.839 that went up the steps of the terrorism and eventually 0:01:34.160 --> 0:01:37.280 broke into the capitol, so they claimed that he really 0:01:37.360 --> 0:01:40.280 led them on, egged them on, encouraged them to more 0:01:40.360 --> 0:01:44.400 forcefully confront the police, which they did. They also claimed 0:01:44.440 --> 0:01:47.560 that he was armed with a pistol a loaded gun 0:01:47.720 --> 0:01:50.200 at the time, and that he had traveled to Washington 0:01:50.440 --> 0:01:53.040 from Texas with an a R fifteen as well, which 0:01:53.040 --> 0:01:55.600 he had left in his hotel room. So they claimed 0:01:55.600 --> 0:01:58.360 that he went there prepared for battle and prepared to fight, 0:01:58.520 --> 0:02:00.720 and that that is what he did. Was there a 0:02:00.760 --> 0:02:03.720 reason why he was tried? First of all the January 0:02:03.760 --> 0:02:06.720 six rioters, not that I'm aware of. You know, more 0:02:06.720 --> 0:02:10.359 than seven hundred and fifty people have been charged, only 0:02:10.400 --> 0:02:12.720 around two hundred or so pleaded guilty, So there are 0:02:12.800 --> 0:02:15.640 hundreds of people who are supposedly going to go to 0:02:15.680 --> 0:02:18.639 trial here. Um, it just seems that this one sort 0:02:18.639 --> 0:02:21.120 of moves the fastest. We're going to see a lot 0:02:21.200 --> 0:02:23.480 of trials later this year. I think it was just 0:02:23.520 --> 0:02:26.520 the luck of the draw for him. Let's talk about 0:02:26.560 --> 0:02:31.600 the prosecution's case, and what was so unusual and telling 0:02:31.720 --> 0:02:36.720 was that his son was the government's star witness against him. Yeah, 0:02:36.760 --> 0:02:39.800 that's correct. That was a real twist. His then eighteen 0:02:39.880 --> 0:02:44.240 year old son contacted the FBI, informed him about his 0:02:44.320 --> 0:02:47.839 father's involvement in the riots, and even went so far 0:02:48.040 --> 0:02:51.360 as to secretly record his father talking at the kitchen table, 0:02:51.720 --> 0:02:53.800 to put his iPhone down on the table and just 0:02:53.960 --> 0:02:56.919 let his father speak as he was bragging about all 0:02:56.919 --> 0:03:00.480 of his activities on January six. So he really went 0:03:00.520 --> 0:03:02.560 pretty far and trying to help the government. And one 0:03:02.560 --> 0:03:05.160 of his reasons for doing so is that at one point, 0:03:05.240 --> 0:03:08.680 as his father realized that so many writers were being 0:03:08.760 --> 0:03:12.720 arrested and charged, he threatened his children to keep them quiets, 0:03:12.720 --> 0:03:15.560 knowing that they had different political views than he did, 0:03:15.600 --> 0:03:18.360 and knowing that they had some pretty incriminating information. He 0:03:18.480 --> 0:03:21.600 told them that speaking with law enforcement would be treason 0:03:21.680 --> 0:03:24.560 and that traders get shot, as they put it. And 0:03:24.760 --> 0:03:28.640 some Capital police officers testified, did one breakdown on the stand. 0:03:29.000 --> 0:03:32.280 There were several who testified, and one in particular, as 0:03:32.320 --> 0:03:35.400 she was in the command center during the riot, and 0:03:35.720 --> 0:03:38.240 you know, they have several different commanders and officers in 0:03:38.280 --> 0:03:42.680 this room with lots of screens watching different camera feeds 0:03:42.680 --> 0:03:45.760 from all over the Capitol. They've got all the radios 0:03:45.800 --> 0:03:49.640 with them, and she just described as the scene just deteriorated, 0:03:49.680 --> 0:03:52.960 and they saw writers running through the building and started 0:03:52.960 --> 0:03:57.160 to hear officers screaming for help on their radios, and 0:03:57.200 --> 0:03:59.440 they just realized that there was only so much they 0:03:59.560 --> 0:04:02.680 could do that they really felt unprepared, and she she 0:04:02.760 --> 0:04:05.720 broke down crying describing it. So it was fairly emotional 0:04:05.800 --> 0:04:09.720 for for some of them. Talk about how federal prosecutors 0:04:09.760 --> 0:04:12.720 built their case against him. You know, what kinds of 0:04:12.760 --> 0:04:16.400 evidence they used besides direct testimony, you know, it was 0:04:16.520 --> 0:04:19.800 really a lot of evidence. I have to say. They 0:04:19.920 --> 0:04:22.279 really built the case as if someone, you know, in 0:04:22.279 --> 0:04:25.120 this case, the jurors didn't know anything about the riot. 0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:28.240 I think that they all did. But they really explained 0:04:28.279 --> 0:04:31.960 how it occurred, what happened. They showed the video footage 0:04:32.400 --> 0:04:35.760 of people attacking that they had witnesses talk from the 0:04:35.839 --> 0:04:39.400 Senate floor explaining how they had to abandon the session 0:04:39.920 --> 0:04:42.280 all to back up all of the various charges for 0:04:42.360 --> 0:04:46.120 obstruction of Congress and being armed on Catholic grounds and 0:04:46.200 --> 0:04:50.200 things like this. They showed photographs from Mr. Refit's house 0:04:50.320 --> 0:04:52.920 when they rated it, showing the gun sitting on his 0:04:53.080 --> 0:04:56.960 nightstand and then comparing it to pictures taken during the 0:04:57.040 --> 0:04:59.359 riot where they say he had the same gun on 0:04:59.520 --> 0:05:04.160 his hip, so cell phone footage from other writers, Mr 0:05:04.279 --> 0:05:08.960 Ruffitt's own helmet mounted camera, his zoom calls with other 0:05:09.000 --> 0:05:12.159 militia leaders, things like that, so they really they put 0:05:12.160 --> 0:05:15.040 it all out there, and the defense didn't call any 0:05:15.080 --> 0:05:19.960 witnesses at all. What was the defense. Of course, defendants 0:05:19.960 --> 0:05:22.560 aren't required to put on a case, and the judge, 0:05:22.680 --> 0:05:25.120 you know, instructed the jury that that shouldn't be interpreted 0:05:25.160 --> 0:05:27.480 as any sort of admission of guilt or anything like that. 0:05:27.520 --> 0:05:31.039 But based on the cross examination of the witnesses, the 0:05:31.080 --> 0:05:34.520 defense was basically that Mr ruff It didn't hurt anyone, 0:05:34.920 --> 0:05:39.720 didn't damage any property, didn't steal anything, and didn't interfere 0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:43.640 with any attempts by law enforcement to arrest anyone. And 0:05:43.680 --> 0:05:47.040 also that he didn't enter the capital. Of course, he 0:05:47.120 --> 0:05:49.479 isn't accused of any of those things, so it was 0:05:49.600 --> 0:05:53.040 a fairly limited defense. He was stopped by pepper spray 0:05:53.080 --> 0:05:55.599 before he could go in the capitals that day, but 0:05:55.720 --> 0:05:58.839 by then, as the prosecution alleged, he had already encouraged 0:05:58.880 --> 0:06:02.960 and led everyone else up the stairs. So the defense 0:06:03.040 --> 0:06:06.719 was really focused on saying that Raffit hadn't done things 0:06:07.120 --> 0:06:10.400 that he wasn't accused of. There was some attempt to 0:06:10.440 --> 0:06:13.320 illustrate that there wasn't enough evidence that he was armed, 0:06:13.560 --> 0:06:15.880 but the jury clearly did not buy that. There was 0:06:15.920 --> 0:06:19.680 actually an audio recording of Mr. Reffitt in the mob 0:06:19.760 --> 0:06:21.680 that day bragging that he had a gun with it, 0:06:21.880 --> 0:06:24.760 So it really didn't work out with the jury. The 0:06:24.880 --> 0:06:28.080 jury didn't take very long to come back with guilty 0:06:28.120 --> 0:06:32.040 on all charges. Was this trial at chest for prosecutors? 0:06:32.240 --> 0:06:35.440 In some ways? I would say so. I think that 0:06:35.800 --> 0:06:39.480 especially the obstruction of Congress charge, there has been some 0:06:39.880 --> 0:06:43.000 I wouldn't say controversy, but some dispute over whether or 0:06:43.080 --> 0:06:46.200 not Congress was technically in session at the moment that 0:06:46.240 --> 0:06:49.159 the Capitol was breached, and whether or not, you know, 0:06:49.160 --> 0:06:52.560 the counting of the certification of the votes qualifies as 0:06:52.560 --> 0:06:55.520 the kind of legal proceeding that can be obstructed. Sort 0:06:55.520 --> 0:07:00.480 of technical arguments around that, And clearly the judge denied 0:07:00.720 --> 0:07:03.039 emotion to dismiss that charge earlier, and of course it 0:07:03.080 --> 0:07:05.640 went to trial and and the jury agreed, based on 0:07:05.680 --> 0:07:09.440 the evidence that Congress wasn't session, that what was happening 0:07:09.800 --> 0:07:12.960 was an official proceeding of the government and that it 0:07:13.040 --> 0:07:15.720 was obstructed by the actions. So I did speak with 0:07:15.760 --> 0:07:18.760 a former federal prosecutor who said that that was an 0:07:18.800 --> 0:07:21.360 important test to see if a jury would agree that 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:23.760 Congress had been obstructed, since that is a charge that 0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:28.520 will see in so many of these cases. Yeah, prosecutors 0:07:28.560 --> 0:07:32.960 trying to elevate some of the cases beyond misdemeanor and trespassing. 0:07:33.480 --> 0:07:38.720 Another judge dismissed that charge against a January six rioter 0:07:39.320 --> 0:07:41.880 this week, saying the law was meant to apply more 0:07:41.880 --> 0:07:46.160 specifically to destroying documents or records in connection with the proceedings. 0:07:46.200 --> 0:07:49.320 So we may actually see that that question go up 0:07:49.360 --> 0:07:52.000 to the d C Circuit. Yeah, I think that we 0:07:52.120 --> 0:07:55.120 probably will. And you know, the defense lawyer after the 0:07:55.200 --> 0:07:58.280 jury verdict was handed down and the jury was dismissed, 0:07:58.480 --> 0:08:01.320 the defense lawyer did renew his request to have the 0:08:01.360 --> 0:08:04.160 case thrown out, which is not uncommon after a trial, 0:08:04.240 --> 0:08:07.080 but he specifically cited that ruling which had come in 0:08:07.080 --> 0:08:09.520 another case in DC just the prior day, I believe, 0:08:10.120 --> 0:08:13.440 and the judge had already had her decision prepared on 0:08:13.520 --> 0:08:17.360 that and said that regardless of that earlier decision, she's 0:08:17.400 --> 0:08:20.400 standing by her finding that the Congress wasn't session and 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:24.400 was obstructed. Um, she said, well, basically what you just said. 0:08:24.440 --> 0:08:26.440 We'll have to wait and see. It's a question that 0:08:26.520 --> 0:08:28.720 might might be decided by the d C Circuit. But 0:08:28.840 --> 0:08:32.240 she seems to think that the words in the statutes 0:08:32.520 --> 0:08:36.120 were being defined too narrowly in that decision the day before, 0:08:36.120 --> 0:08:40.280 and that she's standing by her more broad interpretation. So 0:08:40.679 --> 0:08:43.000 will this be a bell weather for the trials to 0:08:43.080 --> 0:08:47.400 come in perhaps the way the prosecution laid out the case, 0:08:48.360 --> 0:08:50.840 You know, I it's possible. It's hard to predict, but 0:08:50.880 --> 0:08:54.679 I think one thing that the judge at some point 0:08:55.280 --> 0:08:58.040 during the trial when the jury wasn't around, sort of 0:08:58.320 --> 0:09:01.240 not admonished, but that to the prosecution, you know, you're 0:09:01.240 --> 0:09:04.960 really doing too much here, almost like knowing too much evidence, 0:09:05.200 --> 0:09:07.760 showing the same evidence too many times, getting too many 0:09:07.760 --> 0:09:10.240 witnesses to say the same things. So in a way 0:09:10.360 --> 0:09:12.520 she was kind of like, look, you've you've made your 0:09:12.559 --> 0:09:15.160 case to move on, And just from having watched it 0:09:15.160 --> 0:09:17.160 it was a six day trial, they really did put 0:09:17.200 --> 0:09:20.160 on so much evidence to prove things that maybe in 0:09:20.160 --> 0:09:22.560 our minds would feel like, yeah, we already know this, 0:09:23.000 --> 0:09:25.000 right happened we know this happened. We know this happened. 0:09:25.000 --> 0:09:27.640 I think they really wanted to just sew everything up 0:09:27.679 --> 0:09:31.120 from every angle and just make it sort of impossible 0:09:31.200 --> 0:09:34.160 to work around the charges. You know, they really have 0:09:34.200 --> 0:09:38.000 to get around that, that doubt, so we'll see you well. 0:09:38.040 --> 0:09:41.600 I guess that shows how much the first trial means 0:09:42.000 --> 0:09:45.360 to sort of set a standard. And also I think 0:09:45.400 --> 0:09:48.200 this means that a lot of defendants whose trials are 0:09:48.240 --> 0:09:51.720 coming up are going to end up pleading. You know, 0:09:51.800 --> 0:09:54.560 that would definitely make sense. That's what some have been 0:09:54.600 --> 0:09:58.400 speculating here that once they saw how effective the prosecution 0:09:58.520 --> 0:10:02.679 was that presenting the government and how quickly the jury 0:10:02.720 --> 0:10:06.480 accepted the evidence to back the charges, that they really 0:10:06.480 --> 0:10:08.440 wanted to take that chance and go to trial if 0:10:08.440 --> 0:10:10.520 they can get some lesser time. And we have seen 0:10:10.600 --> 0:10:14.080 that some defendants who have pleaded guilty are getting some 0:10:14.520 --> 0:10:18.200 seemingly short sentences. I mean, just a day or two ago, 0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:22.360 one defendant of current f A, a employee who's been 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:25.760 suspended and he participated in the riot, pleaded guilty to 0:10:25.920 --> 0:10:28.480 illegal parading in the capitol. He took a photo in 0:10:28.520 --> 0:10:30.880 front of the Nancy Pelosi's office. He was one of 0:10:30.880 --> 0:10:33.880 the first people in the building. He pleaded guilty and 0:10:33.960 --> 0:10:36.760 was sentenced to no time behind bars and three years 0:10:36.800 --> 0:10:40.120 of probation um. And the government actually had requested only 0:10:40.200 --> 0:10:43.200 two weeks behind bars, so he ended up getting nune. 0:10:43.280 --> 0:10:46.839 So clearly, you know, say what you will about whether 0:10:46.880 --> 0:10:50.160 that was too lenient or not. Um. They're clearly, as 0:10:50.200 --> 0:10:53.240 many defense floors, no benefit to pleading out at some point. 0:10:53.600 --> 0:10:57.160 It's interesting that outside the courthouse after the verdict, wrath 0:10:57.280 --> 0:11:01.400 It's wife told other defendants not to take a plea deal, 0:11:02.000 --> 0:11:05.400 don't take a police, do not take a police. They 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:08.719 want us to take a police. The reason that we 0:11:08.800 --> 0:11:11.520 have all guilty verdicts as they are making a point 0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:17.440 out of guy and that is to intimidate the other 0:11:17.520 --> 0:11:20.920 members of the one sixers and we will all fight together. 0:11:21.360 --> 0:11:24.800 We'll see what happens there. So what is he facing 0:11:24.960 --> 0:11:27.920 when he's sentenced on June? Ay, I know that Jacob 0:11:28.000 --> 0:11:31.520 chans Ley, the Q and On Shaman as he's known, 0:11:32.200 --> 0:11:34.880 was sentenced to more than three years in prison on 0:11:35.080 --> 0:11:39.200 I think the obstruction charge. Yeah, well, I do know 0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:42.040 a lot of these maximum sentences, you know, they never 0:11:42.160 --> 0:11:44.560 end up being the amount that is handed down and 0:11:44.600 --> 0:11:47.080 when there are multiple accounts that they're not always placed 0:11:47.120 --> 0:11:49.120 on top of each other, they're sort of put together. 0:11:49.280 --> 0:11:52.839 So I think the maximum sentence for the obstruction charge 0:11:52.840 --> 0:11:55.839 alone is twenty years. I think you could add them 0:11:55.880 --> 0:11:58.160 all up and say, you know, maybe it's like sixty 0:11:58.200 --> 0:11:59.680 years or something, but I don't think it would be 0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:03.400 anything like that. So we'll see this judge is that 0:12:03.840 --> 0:12:07.480 sentencing for June eighth, so we'll see if that. That 0:12:07.559 --> 0:12:11.000 will be another important test to see what judges give 0:12:11.200 --> 0:12:14.720 these defendants that they're convicted at trial, right, because usually 0:12:15.480 --> 0:12:18.440 there's an extra sort of added on if you make 0:12:18.480 --> 0:12:21.360 the government prove their case at trial instead of pleading 0:12:21.360 --> 0:12:25.160 out like Chansley did. So the trials that are happening 0:12:25.240 --> 0:12:29.080 later this year, they're the most serious charges against the 0:12:29.120 --> 0:12:35.560 insurrectionists involved two group trials. That's right, Um, they're mostly 0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:38.839 from this group called the Oathkeepers. For the record, Mr 0:12:38.920 --> 0:12:41.560 Ruffort was with the militia group called the Three per Centers, 0:12:42.240 --> 0:12:46.120 But these trials coming up later are mostly Oathkeepers. Here. 0:12:46.200 --> 0:12:49.680 There's one in April or some of these militia members 0:12:49.679 --> 0:12:52.839 who are charged with conspiracy. So that's going to be 0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:56.880 a real interesting case to see whether these conspiracy charges 0:12:57.000 --> 0:12:59.400 can stick at trial the same way we saw in 0:12:59.440 --> 0:13:02.080 this trial just now, whether or not an obstruction of 0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:05.600 Congress charge being sick this will show a much more 0:13:05.640 --> 0:13:09.240 serious conspiracy charge work. Then in July will see another 0:13:09.280 --> 0:13:12.280 group of the oathkeepers who have been charged with the 0:13:12.320 --> 0:13:16.000 most serious charge in from the right, which is sedition. 0:13:16.480 --> 0:13:18.600 So I think a lot of people will be watching 0:13:18.640 --> 0:13:22.080 that to see how far the government can take this 0:13:22.200 --> 0:13:27.400 attempt to essentially overthrow Congress and forced Congress to allow 0:13:27.440 --> 0:13:31.040 Trump to essentially have another tournament office. So whether or 0:13:31.040 --> 0:13:34.720 not that's edition still remains to be seen. And the 0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:38.840 former chairman of the Proud Boys was arrested. Was that 0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:44.840 a big arrest? You know? I it's ah, he had already. 0:13:44.840 --> 0:13:47.199 He was arrested yesterday in Miami, and he has been 0:13:47.240 --> 0:13:51.680 added to an earlier case against some other Proud Boys, 0:13:51.679 --> 0:13:54.600 and that's another conspiracy case. And I believe that one 0:13:54.640 --> 0:13:57.800 goes to trial in May, or at least the schedule two. 0:13:57.880 --> 0:14:01.960 At this point. UM, it's unclear of adding um Henry 0:14:01.960 --> 0:14:05.560 Tario is his name, whether that may slow things down, 0:14:05.800 --> 0:14:09.480 But I would say it's not a surprise only because 0:14:09.720 --> 0:14:11.760 you know he was the leader of the group, and 0:14:12.160 --> 0:14:16.000 the group was clearly deeply involved in the planning of 0:14:16.600 --> 0:14:21.680 UM that march on the Capitol UM and say, you 0:14:21.720 --> 0:14:25.160 know you might remember during the UH during the presidential debate, 0:14:25.400 --> 0:14:30.160 um Trump was asked to condemn white supremacy and and 0:14:30.240 --> 0:14:33.240 the militia groups UH and groups like the Proud Boys, 0:14:33.240 --> 0:14:35.080 and he said to the Proud Boys that stand back 0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:38.359 and stand by. Of course, Trump was pretty widely criticized 0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:41.480 for that. UM. So the fact that the leader of 0:14:41.480 --> 0:14:44.040 the Proud Boys has been added to this isn't too 0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:51.160 surprising to me. UM. But I spoke with his lawyer yesterday. UM. 0:14:51.160 --> 0:14:56.120 He didn't want to comment, but he was wondering whether 0:14:56.200 --> 0:14:59.720 or not UM the case would go to trial as 0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:04.720 play in May. Thanks Eric, that's Bloomberg Legal reporter Eric Lawson. 0:15:06.640 --> 0:15:10.240 As Russia's invasion of Ukraine heads towards the two week mark, 0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:15.000 the stakes are escalating. Russian President Vladimir Putin said again 0:15:15.000 --> 0:15:18.520 on Sunday the war will continue until Ukraine accepts his 0:15:18.640 --> 0:15:22.200 demands and halts resistance. Are we in danger of a 0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:25.880 new Cold War? Joining me is Michael Doyle, a professor 0:15:25.880 --> 0:15:29.240 at Columbia Law School and Columbia School of International and 0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:32.680 Public Affairs start by telling us about the Cold War 0:15:32.840 --> 0:15:35.960 and when it ended. Well, whenever we say the word 0:15:36.000 --> 0:15:40.680 Cold War, everyone in my generation, the ones before and 0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:43.640 the one after, of course, thinks about the Cold War, 0:15:44.320 --> 0:15:48.600 which is the conflict and the contest between the Soviet 0:15:48.680 --> 0:15:51.320 Union and the United States. The Soviet Union supported by 0:15:51.320 --> 0:15:54.600 the war saw packed the US by NATO that starts 0:15:54.640 --> 0:15:59.360 up in and ends roughly with garbage off somewhere about 0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:03.000 nineteen ninety. So that's the Cold War, and it's a 0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:07.320 contest between two superpowers, the US the U s s 0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:14.240 are divided by two polar opposite ideologies of communism and capitalism, 0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:19.200 also different political systems of dictatorship and democracy. That's sort 0:16:19.200 --> 0:16:21.760 of the Cold War. But what I think we should 0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:25.480 realize is that there are many other conflicts in international 0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:30.480 history that are special, even if they're not identical. And 0:16:30.520 --> 0:16:33.800 what makes them special is that their contests that are 0:16:33.840 --> 0:16:36.640 not just over a different interest at stake, you know, 0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:41.200 who controls that province or this province, or who can 0:16:41.240 --> 0:16:44.440 get the most out of a trade deal and become wealthier. 0:16:44.600 --> 0:16:50.400 Their conflicts about legitimacy, wherein one partner or one state 0:16:51.080 --> 0:16:55.520 regards the other as in some form or another illegitimate. 0:16:55.600 --> 0:16:58.120 That is, that it holds territory that it should not, 0:16:58.680 --> 0:17:03.480 or that it's political system is violative of the principles 0:17:03.760 --> 0:17:06.960 of the rival. So I think we need to expand 0:17:07.000 --> 0:17:09.760 the meaning of Cold War to take into account those 0:17:09.800 --> 0:17:13.320 conflicts over legitimacy, and there are a number of them. 0:17:13.400 --> 0:17:16.639 And the danger is is that we may be entering 0:17:16.680 --> 0:17:20.320 a new one today in which the US and its 0:17:20.440 --> 0:17:26.920 liberal capitalists democratic allies face off against China and Russia 0:17:27.320 --> 0:17:33.439 as nationalist autocracies that are also corporatist in their economic orientation. 0:17:33.560 --> 0:17:36.399 And there's a danger of that that's emerging today. What 0:17:36.480 --> 0:17:39.800 would you say the situation between the US and Russia 0:17:39.840 --> 0:17:43.680 has been for the last let's say two decades. I 0:17:43.720 --> 0:17:46.439 would go back sort of to three decades, that is, 0:17:46.520 --> 0:17:49.880 the Cold War ended in and then there was ten 0:17:50.000 --> 0:17:53.560 years roughly when Russia was unfortunately in a bit of 0:17:54.160 --> 0:17:58.600 crisis under President Elson economically and politically, but nonetheless was 0:17:58.800 --> 0:18:03.359 verging in a direction of shared universal values as Gorba 0:18:03.440 --> 0:18:08.760 Jeff had announced, and movements towards elections and democracy and 0:18:08.800 --> 0:18:11.400 more of a free market. And that era was one 0:18:11.600 --> 0:18:17.120 of very considerable cooperation, though not equality. In the nineteen nineties, 0:18:17.480 --> 0:18:21.600 starting around the period of twenty years ago, we began 0:18:21.680 --> 0:18:27.680 to see some deterioration. Russia itself experienced failures in democracy, 0:18:28.119 --> 0:18:32.480 very problematic movements moving towards a party that was more 0:18:32.560 --> 0:18:35.960 hegemonic and less tolerant of dissent. At the same time, 0:18:36.000 --> 0:18:39.320 as we saw the emergence of Mr. Putin, a strongman 0:18:39.560 --> 0:18:44.040 who built a coterie of oligarchs and party officials around himself, 0:18:44.520 --> 0:18:49.320 determined to reverse the losses that the Soviet Empire had 0:18:49.359 --> 0:18:53.640 experienced with its collapse in n and so, starting then 0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:58.119 and then peaking about twelve, the full Putin regime was 0:18:58.200 --> 0:19:01.600 put in place, a regime which the state controls media, 0:19:01.840 --> 0:19:06.359 controls overall corporate activity, and is able to extract rents 0:19:06.400 --> 0:19:11.280 for it, for its for its cronies, and manipulates the 0:19:11.359 --> 0:19:15.000 elections that do occur, such as there's no real accountability, 0:19:15.160 --> 0:19:20.400 and adopts of quite aggressive foreign military policy in places 0:19:20.440 --> 0:19:24.880 like Georgia, Syria and not of course most recently in Ukraine. 0:19:25.280 --> 0:19:29.600 Do you have a theory about why Putin now decided 0:19:29.640 --> 0:19:33.560 to invade Ukraine and start this war? I think it 0:19:33.600 --> 0:19:38.520 was it was an opportunity. He saw the West, that is, 0:19:38.600 --> 0:19:44.440 the NATO allies being both weak and quite divided, increasing 0:19:44.480 --> 0:19:48.520 dependence upon Russian gas that he thought would deter any 0:19:48.680 --> 0:19:52.680 United Front. He just came off a very successful military 0:19:52.760 --> 0:19:56.879 campaign in which he propped up assad in Syria and 0:19:57.080 --> 0:20:01.320 routed those who were trying to over throw Aside. So 0:20:01.400 --> 0:20:03.960 there's a great deal of confidence on the military side, 0:20:04.640 --> 0:20:10.160 a sense of vulnerability looking into Western Europe, which appeared 0:20:10.240 --> 0:20:13.920 divided to him. And he was also I think concerned 0:20:14.240 --> 0:20:17.840 that Mr Zelenski, you know, the then newly elected president, 0:20:18.160 --> 0:20:22.919 had the capacities for mobilizing Ukraine in a way that 0:20:23.240 --> 0:20:27.560 made him very far from the kind of clients that 0:20:27.600 --> 0:20:31.880 he had previously experienced in Kiev. And so we saw 0:20:32.119 --> 0:20:36.639 Ukraine slipping away. He saw the West disunited, and he 0:20:36.680 --> 0:20:39.720 had just come off a very successful military campaign that 0:20:39.920 --> 0:20:43.000 made him quite confident in the capabilities of his army. 0:20:43.119 --> 0:20:45.680 So it looked like an opportunity to him. Are we 0:20:46.000 --> 0:20:50.320 entering another phase of a Cold War? Or might it 0:20:50.359 --> 0:20:55.280 even be worse because he's threatening to use Russia's nuclear capabilities. 0:20:56.000 --> 0:20:58.159 My own view is that we've, you know, for the 0:20:58.200 --> 0:21:01.080 past ten years, we've been in towards the Cold War 0:21:01.880 --> 0:21:08.680 in suspicions cyber war industrial warfare with both Russia and 0:21:08.840 --> 0:21:13.800 China that have been boiling under the surface, UH for 0:21:13.920 --> 0:21:17.240 quite a long time. UM. We had a little proxy 0:21:17.280 --> 0:21:21.479 war in Syria, which which so to speak, the West lost, 0:21:22.320 --> 0:21:24.399 partly because we had no idea which side we were 0:21:24.440 --> 0:21:28.480 fighting for. Frankly, we certainly weren't fighting for Isis, which 0:21:28.520 --> 0:21:33.879 was the major opponent of ASAD. UH. So that you know, 0:21:34.200 --> 0:21:36.959 we're we're in a in that kind of a of 0:21:36.720 --> 0:21:39.639 a of a different world where we've been edging towards 0:21:39.640 --> 0:21:44.080 the Cold War. I suspect that this will solidify it 0:21:44.240 --> 0:21:48.399 in very significant ways, in the same way that the 0:21:48.480 --> 0:21:55.720 coup in Czechoslovakia and UH the war in Korea solidified 0:21:56.800 --> 0:22:01.320 the first Cold War. This will solid if I not 0:22:01.440 --> 0:22:06.199 an iron curtain, but a very significant disarticulation, you know, 0:22:06.280 --> 0:22:14.240 splitting up of the world along ideological lines between autocracy 0:22:14.280 --> 0:22:18.040 and democracy, as President Biden said, now there will be 0:22:18.040 --> 0:22:21.080 strong pushback against that. The Chinese don't want to enter 0:22:21.200 --> 0:22:23.600 that kind of a split world. They want to be 0:22:23.680 --> 0:22:26.639 on both sides. They want the economy of the West 0:22:27.160 --> 0:22:31.760 and the and the polity, the politics of Putin and 0:22:31.800 --> 0:22:34.560 they've tried to play that middle course. It will be 0:22:34.640 --> 0:22:36.760 very difficult now, but they don't want a full blown 0:22:36.840 --> 0:22:40.840 Cold war, and the Europeans, of course, would have immense 0:22:40.960 --> 0:22:45.760 economic cost if there's something like an iron curtain that 0:22:45.880 --> 0:22:51.240 goes down between Western Europe and Russia. The United Nations 0:22:51.400 --> 0:22:54.280 estimates that more than one and a half million people 0:22:54.320 --> 0:23:01.080 have fled Ukraine since Russia began bombing some countries Pole in, Romania, 0:23:01.119 --> 0:23:04.120 think Slovakian else who are taking them in. Well, what's 0:23:04.119 --> 0:23:07.840 happening is that these deeply unfortunate people are fleeing for 0:23:07.880 --> 0:23:10.800 their lives to the border. And as you say, it's 0:23:10.920 --> 0:23:15.119 it's quite striking the welcome that they are receiving in 0:23:15.160 --> 0:23:18.919 the countries you just mentioned plan and including Hungary to 0:23:18.960 --> 0:23:23.640 a certain extent, and certainly Romania and others have stepped 0:23:23.640 --> 0:23:27.400 forward to welcome the refugees. That's exactly the right thing 0:23:27.480 --> 0:23:30.840 to do, and they should all deserve commendation for that 0:23:31.280 --> 0:23:34.800 over time, unless we expect, you know, some kind of 0:23:34.800 --> 0:23:38.080 a quick magical piece and everything gets returned to normal 0:23:38.640 --> 0:23:41.480 right away, or normal that is the independence of Ukraine 0:23:41.480 --> 0:23:45.040 and peace, which I think is very unlikely. They're going 0:23:45.080 --> 0:23:49.720 to be in a protracted situation of having to live 0:23:49.800 --> 0:23:53.840 outside their home country at the expense of so far 0:23:54.160 --> 0:23:57.600 generous Poles and others. And I think it's gonna be 0:23:57.760 --> 0:24:03.560 very important that at least the financial burdens of supporting 0:24:04.000 --> 0:24:07.440 these refugees a million and a half now, who knows 0:24:07.480 --> 0:24:10.320 how many more are coming, should be shared. It should 0:24:10.320 --> 0:24:12.840 be shared in Europe, it should be shared globally. The 0:24:12.960 --> 0:24:17.119 US has announced that will be providing ten billion dollars 0:24:17.119 --> 0:24:21.920 of support for Ukraine humanitarian and refugee assistance that will 0:24:21.960 --> 0:24:27.200 probably go through the Congress, and a refugee cost roughly 0:24:27.880 --> 0:24:31.880 ten thousand euros or so per year, So you multiply 0:24:32.080 --> 0:24:35.240 the figures out and one is talking about a considerable 0:24:35.320 --> 0:24:38.320 number of billions of dollars that will need to be 0:24:38.359 --> 0:24:42.800 invested to support them in their asylum in the countries 0:24:43.080 --> 0:24:45.359 what is now the West. So this will be a 0:24:45.840 --> 0:24:49.480 humanitarian crisis that's not going to go away quickly, and 0:24:49.640 --> 0:24:53.240 it's one that we need to share, at least financially. 0:24:53.920 --> 0:24:58.720