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Speaker 1: All right, here we go fifteen twenty, twenty five, thirty

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Speaker 1: thirty five, forty twenty five, fifty and the.

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Speaker 2: Kicks black the college football world. Stunners. Oh my goodness,

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Speaker 2: he's stumbled the football the latter of turn a counter

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Speaker 2: on the U, don't you the lad?

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna came him up the field the night, Molly.

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Speaker 3: It's not the size of the dog in the fighting.

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Speaker 3: It's the size of the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 1: What's up, Degenerate Nation? Welcome to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 1: Campus Podcast. This is the Week twelve college football betting preview.

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Speaker 1: I'm Stucky in with me, as always is Colin Wilson.

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Speaker 1: What a weekend we have in store, tons of awesome matchups.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be even better next weekend. We're hitting the

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Speaker 1: prime of college football.

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Speaker 3: I couldn't be more excited. I mean, you and I

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Speaker 3: are in a massive crunch period, right because the second

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Speaker 3: we get done with this slate on Saturday, it's like

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Speaker 3: we it's like the Thanksgiving week is just so loaded

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Speaker 3: with so many games on every day the conclusion of

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Speaker 3: the regular season. And I don't want to leave this

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Speaker 3: out of the podcast because it's gonna be here before

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Speaker 3: we talk about it. With Northern Illinois faces Kent in

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Speaker 3: the MAC Championship and I know you already have a

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Speaker 3: Kent future. I have a Kent future because you sold

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Speaker 3: me on it. Let's say Kent gets there, are you

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Speaker 3: gonna how big of a bet are you gonna place

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Speaker 3: against Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship game? After that?

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Speaker 3: After what we saw last night, this team is unbelievable.

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Speaker 1: I mean they could be like two and nine. I

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Speaker 1: mean it's ridiculous. But we'll talk about that on our

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Speaker 1: recap episode and we'll also have our preview out early

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Speaker 1: for you guys. We'll record that on Tuesday, same with

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Speaker 1: the NFL one. If you listen to that, I will

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Speaker 1: not be sleeping from Sunday until Tuesday. To get both

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Speaker 1: us out, I have to basically cram four days into two.

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Speaker 1: But we want to make sure you guys all have

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Speaker 1: your stuff out there by Wednesday post. There's a lot

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Speaker 1: of games on Thursday and Friday, all right, we have

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Speaker 1: a ton to get to and by the way, we'll

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Speaker 1: have our Monday recap as usual, but we want to

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Speaker 1: the Sources episode with Brett McMurphy cal On and preap

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Speaker 1: do that and instead well of our group of five

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Speaker 1: deep dive on Tuesday morning, and we'll have our week

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Speaker 1: thirteen main show nice and early for you guys on

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Speaker 1: Wednesday morning. All right, before I get started, I do

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Speaker 1: have an apology. On Monday's episode, we called out Minor

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Speaker 1: Nation for not calling you into the boy smail line

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Speaker 1: after they're lost in North Texas. Turns out they did,

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Speaker 1: and one of our new producers missed it, so I

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Speaker 1: have to look. And then they reached out to a

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Speaker 1: producer and be like I called in. I called in.

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Speaker 1: So have to give them their due because it's one

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Speaker 1: of our favorite fan bases. Play this.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, guys, this is Minor mother f Nation and we're

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Speaker 4: looking our wounds right now. We're looking at uh maybe

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Speaker 4: selling our second beach house because unfortunately we didn't cover

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Speaker 4: the spread tonight and lost to the Mean Green. What

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Speaker 4: do y'all gotta say about Minor mother f Nation? Get

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Speaker 4: your deal pass. Yeah, they didn't even show up. That's

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Speaker 4: why we lost the UTSA. I thought you guys were

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Speaker 4: coming obviously as soon as kickoff we saw you guys,

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Speaker 4: weren't there. We ate a large bag of shit.

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Speaker 1: All right, love you guys, do appreciate your calling in

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Speaker 1: even after loss, and I promise you one of these years,

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Speaker 1: one of the next couple years, we're gonna have a

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Speaker 1: podcast trip to our passa, I promise, and we offer

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Speaker 1: them merch, but they actually said no, and they asked

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Speaker 1: if we could shout out the El Paso Rescue mission instead.

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Speaker 1: So if you bet on the miners at any point

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Speaker 1: in time we won some money, please consider a donation there.

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Speaker 1: Even five hours makes a big difference, especially with the

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Speaker 1: holidays coming up. Just google l Passive Rescue Mission or

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Speaker 1: click the link in the episode description. All right, we

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Speaker 1: have a ton of games to get to, in a

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Speaker 1: lot of good games, and I've just spent the last

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Speaker 1: I don't even know. I lost track of about of

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Speaker 1: hours going through all these games. I'm excited to get

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Speaker 1: into them, and I'm excited to have a big weekend.

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Speaker 1: Bring on over time, if that's what it requires. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's start where we always do, look ahead or look away, hangovers, sleepers,

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Speaker 1: and the dreaded sandwich spot.

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Speaker 4: Is it time to look ahead or look away?

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Speaker 1: All right? This is where we look at next week

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Speaker 1: slate as you're offer me, and sometimes last week's and determine. Okay,

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Speaker 1: is there any good situational spots? A team you have

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Speaker 1: to be let down? Are they going to take their

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Speaker 1: foot off the gas, you know, not maybe show anything

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Speaker 1: worried about injuries, blah blah blah ultimately comes out of

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Speaker 1: the number. Here's there's a number of different spots. Let's

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Speaker 1: start with bedlam. Next weekend, if Oklahoma against Oklahoma State Oklahoma,

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Speaker 1: it looks like Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are going to

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Speaker 1: play each other twice. But keep in mind, Baylor still

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Speaker 1: alive because they beat Oklahoma. So if Oklahoma loses to

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Speaker 1: Iowa State, you know, and Oklahoma State wins all of

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Speaker 1: a sudden, Baylor would take over that number two spot.

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Speaker 1: So there's still some things to be determined in the

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Speaker 1: Big twelve. Are Oklahoma and Oklahoma State potentially looking ahead?

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Speaker 1: I don't necessarily think so. And by the way, we

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Speaker 1: at Oklahoma State, what is it Texas Tech? They are

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Speaker 1: ten and a half point favorites, and Oklahoma is a

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Speaker 1: four point favorite at home against Iowa State. So in

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Speaker 1: my opinion, neither the seems gonna looking at it because

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Speaker 1: they're still a outside shot they can get to the

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Speaker 1: College full playoff. However, I do think both are inflated.

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Speaker 1: Let me start with Iowa State. Iowa State this year

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Speaker 1: has been a disappointment.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 1: This is a team I was super high up. But

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Speaker 1: all of their losses, I mean are just excruciating. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they dominated Iowa. They outgained Baylor by two hundred and

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Speaker 1: ten yards. Dominated that game. Also a kick return for

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Speaker 1: a touchdown.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 1: They They lose to West Virginia on a number of

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Speaker 1: questionable officiating goals. They lose to Texas Tech on a

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Speaker 1: sixty three yard field goal as time expired. This team

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Speaker 1: is still good. Their offense is elite, one of the

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Speaker 1: best passing offenses in the country by every metric. Rock

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Speaker 1: parties having a hell of a year. The rushing attack

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Speaker 1: hasn't been efficient, but it's explosive with freest hall. Their

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Speaker 1: defense has been very disappointing overall, but they've been a

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Speaker 1: little bit unlucky on third downs, not as good as

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Speaker 1: I expected on early downs, but I think there's some

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Speaker 1: regression coming on third downs, but still still disappointing. And

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Speaker 1: it's still but it's a defense I still have in

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Speaker 1: the top twenty five. When you look at Oklahoma. Oklahoma,

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Speaker 1: let's they are who they are. I mean, you're talking

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Speaker 1: about all these close losses throughout the year, and then

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Speaker 1: they lay an egg against Baylor off of a bye

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Speaker 1: and you look at these defensive numbers. Not only are

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Speaker 1: they getting worse, I mean we say that Iowa States

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Speaker 1: defense been disappointing. Some of the Oklahoma pass defense numbers

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Speaker 1: are bottom five in the country. So the way I

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Speaker 1: look at this game is I think Iowa State isa

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Speaker 1: of right now my parties, I have them rated higher

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Speaker 1: than Oklahoma after going through adjustments to defense is a tierning.

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Speaker 1: So when I look at this game, it's two elite

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Speaker 1: offenses going against two defens that have been disappointing. But

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Speaker 1: the Iowa State defense is still in a different stratosphere

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Speaker 1: than what Oklahoma's defense is doing. And on top of that,

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Speaker 1: Caleb Williams, your boy, he's played here's what we played Texas,

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Speaker 1: whose defenses off the rails Kansas. He wasn't even good

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Speaker 1: against Kansas, Texas Tech, and TCU. That's it. Those are

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Speaker 1: not good pass defenses. And then he plays Baylor, who's

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Speaker 1: not even a great pass defense and lays an e.

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Speaker 1: So maybe we rushed to judgment, including myself, on how

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Speaker 1: good Kayla Williams it even is, so there's a chance

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Speaker 1: that he lays another egg here. But we know we're

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Speaker 1: gonna get with Rock Purdy. I you know, this is

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Speaker 1: basically Iowa State super Bowl. I think it's a good

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Speaker 1: spot to back to me. I just think there's value

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Speaker 1: in the line. The Oklahoma defense is the worst unit

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Speaker 1: in this game by far. Two lead offenses. Obvious say

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Speaker 1: defense disappointing but still good on the other side. Well,

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Speaker 1: I'll stop there. What do you got on that game? Anything?

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Speaker 3: I think i Aoways State wins this game absolutely. I mean,

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Speaker 3: Matt Campbell beat this Oklahoma team during the regular season

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Speaker 3: last year, faced them again when OU was red hot,

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Speaker 3: and the championship game, the Sooners survived in Arlington because

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Speaker 3: Iowa State had three turnovers they choked. You know, they

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Speaker 3: would be the current Big twelve champion right now if

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Speaker 3: it wasn't for those three turnovers and and you know,

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Speaker 3: and OU at the time had rattled off what eight

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Speaker 3: wins in a row. I mean, they were one of

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Speaker 3: the hottest teams in the nation. Iowa State uses twelve

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Speaker 3: and thirteen formations, plenty of motion to confuse the defense,

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Speaker 3: and Alex Grinch the defensive coordinator for Oklahoma has had

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Speaker 3: a really tough time in Norman getting his defense to

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Speaker 3: defend Breise Hall, Brock Purty, Charlie Kohler. Ou defense is

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Speaker 3: not outside the top eighty. They're now outside the top

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Speaker 3: eighty against the pass. So that's a real sticky point.

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Speaker 3: And where Oklahoma has struggled the most in defense is

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Speaker 3: passing downs. TCU and Kansas torched ou in long downs

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Speaker 3: and distances. Oh Us now one hundred and tenth and

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Speaker 3: passing down success rate. And I mean as you tall

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Speaker 3: you mentioned Kayleb Williams, I mean against an Randa scheme

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Speaker 3: that ran a pure three three five against him. There

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Speaker 3: was a healthy amount of blitz and he couldn't handle it.

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Speaker 3: I know he got his hands stepped on taking out

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Speaker 3: Spencer Rattler came in. Iowa State also runs a three

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Speaker 3: to three five, but they actually connect on their blitzes.

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Speaker 3: The cyclones are seventeenth and passing down sack rate. That's

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Speaker 3: huge because Baylor does not have that great of his

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Speaker 3: acreating passing downs. So I think this is it for

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Speaker 3: oh you. I've already laid into Iowa State at four.

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Speaker 3: The numbers continuing to go down. I might even add

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Speaker 3: some more because I got a national title ticket on

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Speaker 3: OU that. You know, I've got to get that money

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Speaker 3: back somehow. But I think this is it. I think

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Speaker 3: it is Curtains forrow you and their national title picture.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. I think Olways say wins this game

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Speaker 1: as well, and I think that's what the line is

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Speaker 1: telling you. Even though I show value in that, I

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Speaker 1: don't think many people maybe do, but I have. I

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Speaker 1: always state Righted as the better team right now in

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Speaker 1: regards to Texas Tech, they're catching ten and a half

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Speaker 1: points at home. They're now Bowl eligible after that stunning

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Speaker 1: win over Iowa State last week. They will be home

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Speaker 1: again against Oklahoma State, and Donovan Smith was named the

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Speaker 1: starting quarterback once again. The freshman has been electric. He's

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Speaker 1: forty eight excuse me, he's forty six of fifty nine,

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Speaker 1: seventy eight percent for five hundred and eighty four yards

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Speaker 1: ten yards wards per attempt, for touchdowns, two interceptions. He's

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Speaker 1: been great. And when I look at this Oklahoma State team,

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Speaker 1: they're better than I thought. I have to go. But

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Speaker 1: this is a team that I just can't fully buy

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Speaker 1: into them, and I don't think they're gonna be looking

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Speaker 1: at here. They have a better shot I think getting

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Speaker 1: Coach twelve playoff than Oklahoma. But this number is just

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Speaker 1: too hot to me. I cannot get anywhere close to

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Speaker 1: ten and a half. And I think that there's a

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Speaker 1: number of reasons why Oklahoma State's numbers overall numbers are

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Speaker 1: being inflated. Let's take a look at their schedule. We

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Speaker 1: already went. You know, they'd beat the FCS team by

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Speaker 1: seven to start the year. They should have lost the

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Speaker 1: Tulsa they needed a kick return touchdown. They should have

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Speaker 1: lost the Boise, they needed the rest to blow play

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Speaker 1: dead at the end. Then they play Kansas State's fourth

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Speaker 1: string quarterback. Okay, so that's you can basically throw that

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Speaker 1: game out, but it's counting towards all of their stats.

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Speaker 1: Then they played Baylor A at home in a good spot,

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Speaker 1: fresh off Baylor's fresh off that Iowa State win. And

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Speaker 1: by the way, Baylor o calom the state played Baylor

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Speaker 1: at home. We'll get to this game later. Baylor's two

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Speaker 1: road wins. Guess who Baylors beat on the road this year?

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Speaker 1: Can you guess? Kansas Kansas and Texas State. Those are

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Speaker 1: their two road wins this year, and then they play

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Speaker 1: Texas and they're about to get down twenty four to three,

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Speaker 1: and by the way we've seen, Texas is not as

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Speaker 1: good as we thought, and they get a pick six

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Speaker 1: and flip that game around completely, all right. Then they

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Speaker 1: lose to Iowa State, and they blow up Kansas West Virginia,

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Speaker 1: and then they get TCU in a good spot out

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Speaker 1: off their Super Bowl win. Another backup quarterback they played

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Speaker 1: as well. So I when I look at this schedule, yea,

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Speaker 1: their defense is playing extremely well. It's a talented defense,

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Speaker 1: it's the best in the Big twelve. But I still

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Speaker 1: have questions about the offense. And I think that their

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Speaker 1: numbers are inflated based on this schedule in certain spots

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Speaker 1: and certain things that have gone their way. So I

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Speaker 1: think this number is too high. I think Texas Tech

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Speaker 1: can keep this within ten and a half. And that's

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Speaker 1: basically the andandicap. It has nothing to do with any

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Speaker 1: situational spot you could argue, if anything, maybe Texas Tech

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Speaker 1: is a little flat after that win, that emotional win

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Speaker 1: last week. But I'm I'm rolling with the Red Raiders here.

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Speaker 1: Do you agree?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? I mean, Donovan Smith is a story. He burned

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Speaker 3: the Iowa State defense down twenty five to thirty two

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Speaker 3: in passing over three hundred yards three TVs. Another fifty

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Speaker 3: yards running the ball. This kid was electric. Iowa State

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Speaker 3: just had a single sack on the day, and Texas

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Speaker 3: Tech tripled the national average and explosive drives. I mean, this,

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Speaker 3: where has this been all season? Matt Wells is wondering

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Speaker 3: Oklahoma State. I mean, they've been super focused on the

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Speaker 3: road this year. They're four to zero against the spread

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Speaker 3: away from Stillwater. They've had recent covers against West Virginia, Texas,

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Speaker 3: Iowa State, you know, I mean they rank eleventh in coverage.

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Speaker 3: I mean, if you want to talk about Donovan Smith

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Speaker 3: if he's going to go off again, I mean Oklahoma

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Speaker 3: State's eleventh and coverage their fourth and big play prevention.

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Speaker 3: But you know, Smith's deep dive in his box score

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Speaker 3: shows that his adjusted completion actually goes up from eighty

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Speaker 3: four to eighty eight percent when he gets blitzed. He's

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Speaker 3: had twenty one dropbacks of blitz this season and a

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Speaker 3: three to one ted I and T ratio no turnover

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Speaker 3: worthy plays. The kid is playing great football. When you

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Speaker 3: look at Oklahoma State on the offensive side of the ball.

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Speaker 3: They're just gonna turn around handed off to Jalen Warren.

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Speaker 3: I can't imagine anything special going on with Oklahoma on

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Speaker 3: deck and Bedlum and then you know, you got all

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Speaker 3: this pressure from the college football playoff, and you know,

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Speaker 3: I don't know if that's going to move the chains.

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Speaker 3: The Cowboys are outside the top one hundred line yards

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Speaker 3: even though Jayalen Warren is their their horse in the backfield,

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Speaker 3: but it's not an explosive pass unit whatsoever. I think

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Speaker 3: Texas Tech does enough to keep up here. I'm not

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Speaker 3: sure they win the game, but I project us at seven,

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Speaker 3: so ten and a half ten, I'm in.

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Speaker 1: I'm right on there too. The thing I do like

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Speaker 1: about the spot is Oklahoma State is all the pressure

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Speaker 1: right and bed them next week. Texas Tech's now ball eligible.

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Speaker 1: They have an interim staff, new coat like, they can

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Speaker 1: play spoilier and Oklahoma State season they can play so

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Speaker 1: free and so loose. So yeah, I like the Red

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Speaker 1: Raiders at home and what is still a tough place

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Speaker 1: to play in all right, I'll we also have another

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Speaker 1: big rivalry game next weekend, the big game Ohio State

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Speaker 1: and Michigan. I think the look headline is Ohio State

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Speaker 1: minus six and a half at Michigan if I saw

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Speaker 1: that correctly. So the thing is, are either one of

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Speaker 1: these teams going to be looking ahead Ohio State nineteen

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Speaker 1: point favorite at home against Michigan State, and Michigan will

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Speaker 1: go down to Maryland and is a fifteen point favorite.

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Speaker 1: You we'll get the Michigan Maryland game out of the way.

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Speaker 1: You can just laugh at me. I'm going to be

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Speaker 1: playing Maryland.

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Speaker 3: Oh my god, I.

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Speaker 1: Know it's disgusting. You're you make this spread higher. I'm

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Speaker 1: under fourteen in this game. Would not play fourteen. I

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Speaker 1: would not play under fourteen and look, Maryland's burnt me.

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Speaker 1: The last two weeks as double digit dogs at home.

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Speaker 1: One of the worst losses of the year was them

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Speaker 1: against Penn State that a picked six at the end

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Speaker 1: to lose by seventeen, a game that was tied in

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Speaker 1: the fourth quarter. They'd a net positive fifteen percent success right,

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Speaker 1: it should have won the game. They didn't even cover

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Speaker 1: ten and a half. And then the next week against

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Speaker 1: Michigan State, they're catching thirteen yardage about equal the yards

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Speaker 1: per play they lost, but their last four drives of

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Speaker 1: the game they turn it over on downs in Michigan

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Speaker 1: State territory. It just needed one score. So there's not

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Speaker 1: many advantages here for Maryland if you look at you know,

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Speaker 1: the advanced metrics, Maryland's they're gonna have to throw the

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Speaker 1: ball here and Michigan's been good against the pass. Maryland

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Speaker 1: won't even try to run it here. But I just

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Speaker 1: think it's too many points. Michigan coming off that physical game,

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Speaker 1: they're still dealing with some injuries against Penn State. Second

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Speaker 1: straight road game with Ohio State on deck, like with

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Speaker 1: the College ball Playoff on the horizon, big chance that

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Speaker 1: they come out just a little flat. And if they're

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Speaker 1: up here, they don't need stop wins. They don't need

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Speaker 1: to win. They win out. They're going to the College

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Speaker 1: Wall playoff. So if they're up fourteen seventeen lane, this

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Speaker 1: is already team that run heavy, you know, they play slow.

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Speaker 1: You're going to see them sit on it. They have

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Speaker 1: a lot of injuries already. Let's get out of College

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Speaker 1: Park with a win. So hopefully, if it's hopefully, we

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Speaker 1: don't need to do this. But maybe Maryland, if it

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Speaker 1: comes down to it, can get me my back door

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Speaker 1: that they have flirted with, maybe gave up a front

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Speaker 1: Door cover two weeks ago. Yeah, it's sad, but I

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Speaker 1: will be playing the turfs. I will be cursing myself

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Speaker 1: on Twitter. God bless you if you decide to join.

335
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Speaker 1: And by the way, the Maryland's defense is bad, but

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Speaker 1: it's not like Michigan's offense has been lighting up the

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Speaker 1: world on the other side. And maybe there's some regression

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Speaker 1: coming here in the red zone and turnovers. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Maryland's like bottom fifteen and fourth downs, all of that

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Speaker 1: on the In the other game, Ohio State, I'll keep

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Speaker 1: this simple and I'll get your thoughts on both Ohio

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00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:07,680
Speaker 1: State minus nineteen against Michigan State. Again, there's no look

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Speaker 1: at Ohiosate does not look ahead to Michigan. Michigan can

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Speaker 1: be maybe look ahead to Ohio State, and ohis State

345
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Speaker 1: does not look ahead to Michigan. Plus, Ohio State needs

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Speaker 1: to win out to go to the College Till playoff,

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Speaker 1: So there's no lack of focus here. This is simple

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Speaker 1: to me. First of all, Michigan State has a number

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Speaker 1: of key injuries on the offensive side the ball offensive line.

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Speaker 1: Jalen Naylor, one of the best receivers, is still bagged up.

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Speaker 1: Not sure if he's going to go and their defense stinks.

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Speaker 1: Their past defense is one of the worst in all

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Speaker 1: Power five. Okay, well try going up against the most

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Speaker 1: dynamic wide receiving corps in the country. Now, when we

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Speaker 1: were when I was filling out my boltanklled semifinalists, it

356
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Speaker 1: was like Garrett Wilson a lave and I was like,

357
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Speaker 1: but the JIGBA actually leads the team with like a

358
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Speaker 1: thousand yards. I don't need to think he was on

359
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Speaker 1: the list. So Michigan State plays off because their corners

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Speaker 1: are bad. I mean, this is going to be a

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Speaker 1: field day for Ohio States receivers. This I think is

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Speaker 1: a truck. So, I mean there's obviously high backdoor risk.

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Speaker 1: States defense hasn't been great, but I mean a high

364
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Speaker 1: state SHU put up a fifty burger here. I'm laying

365
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Speaker 1: it with the buck guys. Thoughts on both those games,

366
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Speaker 1: and you could just laugh off Maryland if you want

367
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Speaker 1: to move on to Ohio State.

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean with Maryland, I have Maryland PTSD, Like,

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Speaker 3: I just don't even know what my record would be

370
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Speaker 3: in the action app if I stop betting on Maryland

371
00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:33,280
Speaker 3: every week with these stupid turnovers and these like finding

372
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Speaker 3: ways not to cover.

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Speaker 1: I'm five on them this year.

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Speaker 3: Five yeah, I mean I have too much PTSD to

375
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Speaker 3: be laying a full game. And I think seventeen is

376
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Speaker 3: really a key number here because what hardball is going

377
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Speaker 3: to want to do is get a three score lead

378
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Speaker 3: and then just sit on it, right. I mean, we

379
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Speaker 3: don't know the status on Blake Korum. I don't expect

380
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Speaker 3: them to play whatsoever with Ohio State coming up. And

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Speaker 3: I do project this at sixteen with a total of

382
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Speaker 3: fifty four, So there's a lean on the under fifty seven.

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Speaker 3: But you know, Michigan's gonna do either's slow tempo ninety

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Speaker 3: fifth and tempo pound the rock against a Maryland team.

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Speaker 3: It's one hundred and thirteenth and stuff, right, So there's

386
00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:09,360
Speaker 3: not going to be any resistance there whatsoever. And there's

387
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Speaker 3: a massive gap in special teams third for Michigan one

388
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Speaker 3: hundredth for Maryland. But I think the real cap is

389
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Speaker 3: havoc allowed. I can't trust this Maryland team who's consistently,

390
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Speaker 3: you know, constantly losing the ball. Interceptions, defenses are in

391
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Speaker 3: the backfield all the time. I think, like I said,

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Speaker 3: I think seventeen is where harball kind of calls off

393
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Speaker 3: the horses. I would rather play a first half on

394
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Speaker 3: Michigan sore when Harbaugh's trying to build that lead than

395
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Speaker 3: play a full game. And then as far as Michigan

396
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Speaker 3: State Ohio State, I wrote a huge, huge, detailed right

397
00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:44,159
Speaker 3: up on this game, and one of the biggest and

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Speaker 3: I'll let everybody go out to Action Network and read this.

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Speaker 3: But the biggest conclusion I could come up with this

400
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Speaker 3: might be a boat race. And I don't think mil

401
00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:54,560
Speaker 3: Tucker wants it to be a boat race. I think

402
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Speaker 3: he wants to pound Kenneth Walker about forty times a game.

403
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Speaker 1: Because when you when you're down anyone nothing in the

404
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:01,960
Speaker 1: first quarter, what are you gonna do?

405
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Speaker 3: Exactly? Because their defense in the secondary is so bad

406
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 3: that CJ. Stroud and this this unit is going to

407
00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:10,640
Speaker 3: be able to tear them up. I wouldn't be surprised

408
00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:14,040
Speaker 3: to see three touchdowns by Ohio State early. This is

409
00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:17,440
Speaker 3: not the Penn State defense that you know Ohio State

410
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:20,440
Speaker 3: had trouble scoring against. This is CJ. Stroud, who has

411
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Speaker 3: a sixteen to one TD to I in t ratio.

412
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Speaker 3: When he is pressured, he is unbelieve. He's like pulling

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Speaker 3: mac Jones numbers. In a crowded pocket, and that doesn't

414
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Speaker 3: even matter because Michigan State is ninety ninth and passing

415
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Speaker 3: down sacrate. They're not even getting pressure on the quarterback

416
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Speaker 3: when they need it. So I think mel Tucker is

417
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:44,240
Speaker 3: going to try to dirty this up in the trench

418
00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:46,399
Speaker 3: because there's a little bit of an advantage against Ohio

419
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Speaker 3: State front. But at the same time, if you're down fourteen,

420
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Speaker 3: you're not trying to pound the rock. So for me,

421
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,840
Speaker 3: it was a first half over. I'd like the number

422
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:56,359
Speaker 3: to come down to a key. Sixty eight and a

423
00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:58,960
Speaker 3: half doesn't really make me want to get involved. I

424
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Speaker 3: might wait for it to come down because it has

425
00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 3: come down a little bit this week, But first half

426
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,840
Speaker 3: over for me, full game over for me. And you're

427
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Speaker 3: right about the back door, I'm not if produced putting

428
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 3: up over thirty here. The Michigan State can do the

429
00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:16,679
Speaker 3: same thing. So there is extreme back door here with

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Speaker 3: this nineteen. Of course it's a dead number. You'd want

431
00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:21,200
Speaker 3: it to get to twenty one, something that hits a

432
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 3: little bit more often, so I might not play the

433
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 3: side pregame. But yeah, I mean, Michigan State's not gonna

434
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 3: just because they're down thirty five doesn't mean they're not

435
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:32,040
Speaker 3: going to try to get two touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

436
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:32,960
Speaker 3: Back door this thing.

437
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 1: If mel Tucker wants to run the ball all day,

438
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 1: I welcome it. The weakness of States in their secondary

439
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:43,920
Speaker 1: their top five EPA for rushing day. All right, So

440
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:46,440
Speaker 1: look there's another game, and look at it.

441
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 3: Look away.

442
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:50,560
Speaker 1: We'll get to later EASU Navy. We'll talk about another segment,

443
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:54,399
Speaker 1: another big rivalry game next week, the Iron Bowl Alabama.

444
00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:56,479
Speaker 1: Auburn has obviously lost some of it's lesser no bow

445
00:22:56,600 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 1: next season. Still get the shout out in on the

446
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 1: body's out for the season with an injury, and then

447
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 1: Alburn obviously lost, but they can they can still knock

448
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 1: out Alabama. That's their super Bowl. Now, they knock out Alabama,

449
00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 1: but who knows, Alabama probably still gets in at they

450
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:14,360
Speaker 1: those three games at this point, but they can end

451
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 1: Alabama season potentially and their college football playoffroun. I guess

452
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:20,680
Speaker 1: if they beat Georgia then they're probably in with two losses,

453
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 1: but that'll be their super Bowl next week.

454
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:24,520
Speaker 2: And I'm gonna tell you what if I had a

455
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:27,200
Speaker 2: barometer up to say whether you were give an effort

456
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 2: or not it was about fifty percent.

457
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:30,560
Speaker 3: Why did you push yourself?

458
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 1: So this is a really big look ahead spot, you know,

459
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:39,920
Speaker 1: traveling to Columbia to play just an abysmal South Carolina team.

460
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 1: Finley's going to get the start for Auburn. I can

461
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 1: see them being super flat here. Not sure I want

462
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:48,480
Speaker 1: to back South Colina. Just don't see enough value in

463
00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 1: the line. But this is one of the best, one

464
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 1: of the biggest look at spots because Auburn is playing

465
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 1: for nothing with Alabama on deck, which is now their

466
00:23:56,640 --> 00:24:01,360
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. Any interest in North Carolina as a home dog.

467
00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 3: No, I played Auburn earlier today. I did listen. This

468
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 3: is a number with bow Knicks out of make thirteen

469
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 3: and a half. So you're saying six points, that's what

470
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 3: bo Nix is worth. I love Bonnicks. It's been a

471
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 3: great Bonnicks season, but that is not the proper drop

472
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 3: off to TJ Finley. TJ Finley is a season to

473
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 3: SEC quarterback with tons of experience, and he didn't look

474
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,120
Speaker 3: that bad and when he's come in and done clean

475
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 3: up in earlier parts of the season. So I don't

476
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:32,040
Speaker 3: agree with the massive drop in the line. Plus, what

477
00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 3: is South Carolina's rush defense, it's one hundred and ninth

478
00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:38,200
Speaker 3: in the line yards ninety second and defensive rushing success

479
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:40,879
Speaker 3: rate one hundred and twenty fifth and stuff rate. This

480
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:44,399
Speaker 3: defense is gonna take on Tank, Bigsby and dark Ways Hunter.

481
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:48,720
Speaker 3: I don't see it. That's not gonna fly. So it's

482
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 3: not just TJ. Finley. It's the fact that Auburn has

483
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 3: a rushing game that's just going to pound South Carolina

484
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 3: into oblivion. Then you get to stuff that's off the field.

485
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,679
Speaker 3: Mike Bobo is the interim coach South Carolina. Where Beamers

486
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:02,160
Speaker 3: showed up up, Beemer comes in says, hey, you want

487
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:05,200
Speaker 3: to stick around and be the OC. Bobo's like, you know, deuces,

488
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:09,359
Speaker 3: I'm out. And now Bobo's being hazed by everybody in

489
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 3: the in the South Carolina region. And this is an

490
00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:16,960
Speaker 3: offensive coordinator that holds grudges, doesn't take knees, and likes

491
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 3: to blow teams out no matter what the situation is.

492
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 3: So the drop off should not be that much down

493
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:23,439
Speaker 3: to seven and a half. I'm on Auburn. I think

494
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 3: Finley's gonna do just fine, But really it's Tank and

495
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 3: dark Weas is just gonna run wild on this South

496
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:29,119
Speaker 3: Carolina defense.

497
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:36,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, and South Carolina's offense is a side for sore eyes.

498
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:39,280
Speaker 1: All right. So that'll do it for look ahead or

499
00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:45,119
Speaker 1: look away. Let's move on to our marquee matchups of

500
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:45,680
Speaker 1: the weekend.

501
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:50,200
Speaker 3: It's another fabulous weekend of college football.

502
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 1: Let's check out the marquee matchups we'll all end up

503
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:58,639
Speaker 1: bedding for Week twelve. We already hit on a couple

504
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:03,399
Speaker 1: of the marquee matchups, but we have three more to

505
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:07,280
Speaker 1: get to here. Let's start in the Big twelve with

506
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 1: the game we already mentioned. Baylor, off a huge win

507
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 1: over Oklahoma at home, travels to Kansas State. We're getting

508
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,439
Speaker 1: called out on Twitter by a Kansas State backer for

509
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:22,359
Speaker 1: not giving them love. Kansas State one point underdog. I

510
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 1: think they're now one point favorite. I'm on Kansas State here,

511
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 1: Emil baby, every man a wildcat. I really love Kansas State. Here.

512
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:35,359
Speaker 1: I think that I'll give you my quick candy cap.

513
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:39,480
Speaker 1: I already mentioned that what has Baylor done on the road.

514
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 1: They've wins over Kansas and Texas State. That's it. This

515
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:48,359
Speaker 1: is a team. Yes, they beat Iowa State, they were

516
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 1: thoroughly outplayed. Now they beat Texas. They came back from

517
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:56,199
Speaker 1: double digits in second half. We've seen what Texas is now.

518
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 1: They've lost a TCU every time they've had a big win.

519
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 1: They've laid an egg week on the road. For what

520
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:08,160
Speaker 1: it's worth. And Gary Bohannon is deteriorating. He has, I believe,

521
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 1: five touchdowns and six interceptions over his past four games.

522
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 1: The passing attack is floundering, to say the least. Rushing

523
00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:20,879
Speaker 1: attack still very potent. But what does Kansas State do

524
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:24,160
Speaker 1: really well? Defend the run? A top ten in line yards,

525
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:26,159
Speaker 1: I think the top ten in epav rush. I mean,

526
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 1: there's a really good run defense the other side of

527
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:32,119
Speaker 1: the ball, Skyler Thompson. By the way, Kansas State, to

528
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:34,359
Speaker 1: our guy's point, has been a covering machine. They didn't

529
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 1: cover against Iowa State at home, and they didn't cover

530
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:39,720
Speaker 1: against Oklahoma State when they had a play that kid

531
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,440
Speaker 1: Lewis because all their quarterbacks were hurt. I believe they've

532
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:46,000
Speaker 1: covered every other game since. But Scott Chops is playing

533
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 1: at a really high level. You obviously have Deucepawn in

534
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:51,880
Speaker 1: the backfield, and this Baylor pass defense is vulnerable. Take

535
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 1: a look at some of the statistics. I think Kansas

536
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:57,240
Speaker 1: State will have some success with some short passes, Vaughn

537
00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:59,959
Speaker 1: will get his and obviously it's a huge letdown for Baylor.

538
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 1: They you know, they can still get to the big

539
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 1: two Jenson, but they need some help. So I think

540
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:07,880
Speaker 1: senior night for Thompson and a lot of those seniors.

541
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 1: This Kansas State team's playing really good football against a

542
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 1: Baylor team that I think is overrated. I think last

543
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 1: week was more of an indictment on Oklahoma than anything.

544
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 1: So yeah, memol, give me Kansas State. Do you agree?

545
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 3: Absolutely? Kansas State. It's a great great spot here. I

546
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 3: mean I project this minus one, So it's not really that.

547
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:29,720
Speaker 3: It's the situational spot with Baylor coming off of, you know,

548
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:31,760
Speaker 3: a win against Ou, and they've just been a different

549
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 3: team on the road. They've i mean, you mentioned who

550
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 3: they played, but they've covered one game away from Waco.

551
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:38,640
Speaker 3: I mean the last time they were on the road,

552
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 3: they got boat raced by a TCU offense. It lost

553
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:44,320
Speaker 3: its head coach. Ultimately, that was their shot to get

554
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 3: into the Big twelve championship game. Was how bad they've

555
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 3: been on the road. And it's a revenge spot from

556
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 3: last year too. Kansas State went to Waco and lost

557
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 3: by one even though they averaged more than a yard

558
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 3: per play better than the Bears, two offensive turnovers, a

559
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:00,840
Speaker 3: couple of bad plays and passing, I mean, that was

560
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 3: the difference. So you know, coach Cleimban's gonna get them

561
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 3: going here. And we know Baylor runs the ball sixty

562
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 3: one percent of the snaps and they're number one and

563
00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 3: rushing success rate in the nation. Abram Smith and Gary O'Hannon.

564
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 3: They've been deadly on the ground. But Kansas State is

565
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 3: playing elite. Yeah, they're playing great. Rushde thirteenth in line yards,

566
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:22,000
Speaker 3: they're twenty first in defensive finishing drives. They've been great

567
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 3: stopping the run. They've been great when they've had their

568
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 3: backs penned up against the goal line, and then you

569
00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 3: go to the other side of the ball, and that

570
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 3: offense is all about the explosive play. I mean, that's

571
00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 3: why we were all over against Stanford in the very

572
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 3: first week. Is when you get a healthy Skyler Thompson

573
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 3: and you get a healthy Douce Spawn, you get these

574
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 3: chunk yards. They've won four straight games. The last time

575
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 3: they didn't cover was against Iowa State on October sixteenth,

576
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 3: So they're kind of on a here right now slow

577
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 3: grind of a game, the tempo's are I think outside

578
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 3: the top one hundred. I mean, Kansas State is tenth

579
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 3: and standard down success rate on offense. That shocks me

580
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 3: because they're a team that's explosive. That means they're going

581
00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 3: to move the chains and they're going to get explosive

582
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 3: plays to come. And Baylor's one hundred and fourth and

583
00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 3: defending both standard and passing downs explosiveness. That's the shocking

584
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 3: thing is that out they're outside the top one hundred

585
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 3: on defense. Oh, you couldn't expose that. I'm still a

586
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 3: little shockgow you couldn't expose that aspect that Baylor's outside

587
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 3: the top one hundred defending explosiveness. So this is Kansas

588
00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 3: State all the way from me.

589
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 1: So, Kansas State top twenty in the nation in passing

590
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 1: success rate, top ten in the nation in defensive rush

591
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 1: success rate. What does Baylor do really well? They run

592
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:36,280
Speaker 1: the ball, that's Kansas State matches up well. What does

593
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:39,400
Speaker 1: Baylor struggle with the run? Defense is really good defending

594
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 1: the pass, That's what Kansas State is doing better this year.

595
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 1: So I think it's a really good matchup in a

596
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 1: really good spot. EMO. All Right, let's move on, and

597
00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:50,760
Speaker 1: by the way, I think Baylor's numbers.

598
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 3: Right, they.

599
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:56,760
Speaker 1: They if you look at some of their wins like that,

600
00:30:56,880 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 1: by that they just dominated by statistically. But you have

601
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 1: to remember, like their whole staff was ex BYU, right,

602
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:09,320
Speaker 1: like that was such a good, unique situational spot for

603
00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 1: them to just understand everything that BYU wanted to do.

604
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:16,479
Speaker 1: I just didn't take a lot from that game knowing that,

605
00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:19,480
Speaker 1: so I didn't really give Baylor much of a bump there.

606
00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:23,320
Speaker 1: Let's move on to our second marquee game of the weekend,

607
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:27,240
Speaker 1: and it's a good one. In the Pac twelve, Oregon

608
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 1: will travel to Rice Acles Saturday night, it's probably the

609
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 1: game of the weekend and visit Utah, who simply does

610
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 1: not lose at home. I think the last home loss

611
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 1: without fans in the stadium was September of twenty eighteen.

612
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 1: They did lose last year the USC team that just

613
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:47,240
Speaker 1: matches up really well with them with their air ra

614
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 1: but it was in an empty stadium. This is one

615
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 1: of the hardest places to play in all of college football.

616
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 1: When I look at this game, you know, I think

617
00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 1: the linep are Most people are going to look at

618
00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 1: this line and say, oh my god, Oregon's catching three points.

619
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:00,360
Speaker 1: I have to bet Oregon. I assume I was on

620
00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:03,400
Speaker 1: a podcast earlier today and that's what the host asked me.

621
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 1: The first thing is this luke of this fishy line.

622
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 1: Why is Oregon catching three points? I'm assuming this sentiment

623
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 1: will be the same with Michigan State getting nineteen. I

624
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:12,880
Speaker 1: remember I was arguing with someone two weeks ago the

625
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:14,760
Speaker 1: Michigan State. They were saying Michigan State wouldn't be a

626
00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 1: double digit underdog. That's a lot of state. But Utah

627
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 1: is rolling with Cam Rising. I mean, you look at

628
00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 1: Cam Rising's numbers, so their overall profile is being deflated

629
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 1: by the fact that Charlie Brewer was starting those first

630
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 1: few games. I mean, Rising's numbers are insane. The running

631
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 1: game has also have been good. Their offensive line has

632
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:37,160
Speaker 1: been great. Oregon has you know, this guy named Dibbodeau

633
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 1: dominant defensive end on their side of the ball, even

634
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:43,959
Speaker 1: though they haven't been They're not elite at getting pressure,

635
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 1: but he can dominate the game. Well. The good news

636
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 1: is for Utah's their offensive lines playing well, and they've

637
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 1: run a lot of eleven, twelve and thirteen personnel use

638
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:54,719
Speaker 1: a lot of tight ends that they're gonna chip him,

639
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:56,479
Speaker 1: they're going to give help, and I think that they

640
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:59,080
Speaker 1: can neutralize him here. But I think that they all

641
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:02,480
Speaker 1: have of success moving the ball against an Oregon defense

642
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 1: that I had some questionable metrics, and all the talk

643
00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 1: in the Oregon papers and forms or the Oregon defense

644
00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 1: is improved, and I was looking reading for reasons why,

645
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 1: and all the players and the coaches were saying it's

646
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 1: just chemistry. I think it's more opponent driven. So you know,

647
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:27,600
Speaker 1: they played Washington's offense, Colorado's offense. That sets your defense

648
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 1: is going to look pretty good when you play those teams.

649
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 1: So I still think that there's some holes on this

650
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:36,960
Speaker 1: Oregon defense against the run, potentially in the secondary. And

651
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 1: this Utah offense is dynamic and multiple ways. They can

652
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 1: run the ball as well as anyone in the country,

653
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:47,320
Speaker 1: and you know Rising is playing as well as any

654
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 1: quarterback in the country. On the other side of the ball,

655
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 1: Utah's defense isn't an elite Utah defense. It's not a

656
00:33:57,320 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 1: top five defense. Usually they have like a top five

657
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 1: that's the top five special teams and then like the

658
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:05,960
Speaker 1: fortieth ranked offense right now, so that the offense is

659
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 1: better than the defense the way that it's playing right now.

660
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:11,760
Speaker 1: But the defense is still rock solid. They're still gonna

661
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:17,160
Speaker 1: make plays, and I think that it's a pretty easy

662
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:21,040
Speaker 1: defensive plan here. It looks like Johnny Johnson is going

663
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:23,920
Speaker 1: to be out. I think it was ex Utah receiver,

664
00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:28,200
Speaker 1: who's one of their top two receivers. Oregon basically only

665
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:30,359
Speaker 1: has two receivers they throw it, and Johnson is one

666
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:33,880
Speaker 1: of them. Pittman, who's just been lost. He left the

667
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 1: program yesterday and now they're going to be relying on

668
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 1: one of two freshmen on the outside. You gotta worry

669
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:42,799
Speaker 1: about one receiver. Lad the box, stop the run. Say

670
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 1: Anthony Brown beat me. I don't think he can. I

671
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 1: think you Thawt wins his game. I personally threw him

672
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:50,920
Speaker 1: in a moneyline part. I'll throw him in my round, Robin.

673
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:54,960
Speaker 1: I paired him with the bucks. I think this sets

674
00:34:55,040 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 1: up as a reality check for Oregon and they are

675
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:03,359
Speaker 1: out of the College twelve playoff. I believe even if

676
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:07,400
Speaker 1: Utah wins, Oregon just needs to win next week and

677
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:09,880
Speaker 1: then these two teams will play each other again in

678
00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 1: the Pac twelve Championship. If Oregon loses Oregon plays Oregon

679
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 1: State right next week. Yeah, so if Oregon loses and

680
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:22,359
Speaker 1: Oregon State wins, and then Oregon State beats Oregon next week,

681
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:25,800
Speaker 1: Oregon State would actually win the division. But we're most

682
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 1: likely going to see Oregon in Utah again. Utah could

683
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:30,759
Speaker 1: still lose the division too, if you're counting on my

684
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:34,399
Speaker 1: Arizona State futures. Arizona State needs to win out and

685
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:37,399
Speaker 1: Utah needs to lose out and that includes a home

686
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 1: game against Colorado next week, but we won't talk about that.

687
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:42,120
Speaker 1: But yeah, so I think he does win in this game.

688
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:43,800
Speaker 1: I think that the right side here. What are your thoughts?

689
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 3: Well, for all of us that hit the DraftKings openers

690
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:51,680
Speaker 3: on PAC twelve South, when they listed Utah plus six fifty,

691
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 3: that was the stupidest number I've ever seen in my life.

692
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:58,320
Speaker 1: Either way, don't count your chickens. Don't count your chickens

693
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:05,719
Speaker 1: because because what happened last year, COVID COVID and Arizona

694
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:07,839
Speaker 1: State goes after a Utah four a fit.

695
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:12,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, we need to get a win for Utah.

696
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:15,359
Speaker 3: Hopefully we don't have to wait till Colorado. So this

697
00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 3: was probably one of the most fun games I've got

698
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:21,399
Speaker 3: to handicap all season long. Oregon's gonna have their hands

699
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:24,279
Speaker 3: full with this Utah offense. Two and three tight end

700
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 3: sets that has a ton of prestat motion, shovel passes,

701
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:30,359
Speaker 3: flea flickers, everything in the book that's going to try

702
00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 3: to confuse Tim de Ruter on defense. If Oregon has

703
00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:37,479
Speaker 3: to get Utah into passing situations, Kevon Thibodeau can show

704
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:39,239
Speaker 3: why he's going to be the number one pick in

705
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:40,240
Speaker 3: the NFL Draft.

706
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 1: But as I tweeted out this week, both of the.

707
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:48,160
Speaker 3: Utah offensive tackles this season have not allowed a sack.

708
00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:51,759
Speaker 3: That's crazy. I mean Thibodeau. I've seen him against the

709
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:53,839
Speaker 3: left tackle and the right tackle and lots of film

710
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:55,400
Speaker 3: that I've watched, so it doesn't matter which one he

711
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:59,239
Speaker 3: goes up against. No sacks allowed. So that's one of

712
00:36:59,280 --> 00:36:59,720
Speaker 3: the most.

713
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:02,040
Speaker 1: And you're gonna have a tight multiple tight ends there

714
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:03,239
Speaker 1: a lot, so we'll probably get shipped a lot.

715
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, ship chipped all nights. So, I mean, this is

716
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:07,840
Speaker 3: a tough ass for the Ducks defense, which does not

717
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 3: start games well. Oregon is two and seven against the

718
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:13,319
Speaker 3: spread in the first half, and I go back to

719
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:17,000
Speaker 3: the UCLA game, heavy rush by chip, and it's very

720
00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:20,240
Speaker 3: much correlated to this Utah plan. Heavy rush by chip,

721
00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:24,719
Speaker 3: multiple formations, two all star running backs and a mobile quarterback.

722
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:27,600
Speaker 3: We have the same thing here. Oregon got down fourteen

723
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:30,160
Speaker 3: to zero, then they made their adjustments and they won

724
00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 3: on the road. So keep in mind that Utah is

725
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:35,959
Speaker 3: one of the worst third quarter teams in the nation

726
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:39,160
Speaker 3: by point differential. I went and looked it up. I mean,

727
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:42,400
Speaker 3: I split this game out all by point differentials. By quarters.

728
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 3: Utah is fantastic in the first half. Something about the

729
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:49,040
Speaker 3: third quarter they have a negative point differential, and teams

730
00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 3: are making adjustments at halftime and they're able to do

731
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:57,520
Speaker 3: something against Utah and two of the best coaches in

732
00:37:57,560 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 3: all of college football to make changes on the fly

733
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 3: Joe moorehead Mario Cristobal for both offense and defense. So

734
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 3: when you're looking at Anthony Brown and Travis Dye running

735
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 3: that mesh rpo where they're just going to hold onto

736
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 3: it as long as they can, then maybe Anthony Brown

737
00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 3: turns into a blocker. It's all about busting through the

738
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:15,480
Speaker 3: line of scrimmage. For those of you that listen to

739
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:19,840
Speaker 3: Stuck and Eye Handicap Arizona State in Utah. Utah is

740
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:22,040
Speaker 3: one of the best teams. It tackles for loss, They're

741
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 3: one of the best teams. It's stuff, right, But if

742
00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:26,080
Speaker 3: you get through the line of scrimmage, you're gonna bust

743
00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:29,239
Speaker 3: explosive plays on Utah. That's the problem. So if they

744
00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 3: don't stuff you behind the line, you know, I mean,

745
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:33,960
Speaker 3: there could be some success here for Anthony Brown and

746
00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:36,400
Speaker 3: for Travis Dye. So the way it's going to go

747
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:39,399
Speaker 3: for Orgon is they're gonna get stuffed, stuffed, stuffed, then

748
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 3: a penalty. That's something that we have to talk about

749
00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:44,480
Speaker 3: here because we talk about penalties in Arizona State. It

750
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:47,640
Speaker 3: matters here. Utah is the least penalized team and one

751
00:38:47,640 --> 00:38:50,279
Speaker 3: of the least penalized teams in the country. Oregon is

752
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:53,279
Speaker 3: outside the top one hundred penalty yards. Organ won't win

753
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 3: the line of scrimmage on every play, but I think

754
00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:58,399
Speaker 3: by the second half they'll start busting some a little bit.

755
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:00,799
Speaker 3: I see this game being ripped it out to match

756
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:03,800
Speaker 3: exactly what has happened to both of these teams all season.

757
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:08,080
Speaker 3: The Wittingham Scaley Ludwig. They always have Utah on point

758
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:10,279
Speaker 3: to start the game. In the first half, there's a

759
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 3: huge dip in net yards and third quarter, which is

760
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:16,200
Speaker 3: when Organ consistently. You know, they come out, they get

761
00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 3: confused by the fronts they're scene in the first quarter,

762
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:21,920
Speaker 3: they rally and make changes under crystal Ball and Morehead,

763
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:23,920
Speaker 3: and then they come back and have these great wins.

764
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:26,680
Speaker 3: Utah first half for me, I bet it. I put

765
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:28,239
Speaker 3: it in the app. It's one of my favorite bets

766
00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:30,640
Speaker 3: of the weekend. Organ's in the middle I think going

767
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:32,759
Speaker 3: to dominate the middle eight. I think we're gonna have

768
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 3: a wild fourth quarter. I agree with you be winning

769
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:40,840
Speaker 3: in rice Ecles is tough, but I think that after

770
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:43,840
Speaker 3: Morehead and Crystal Ball put their touches, after the initial

771
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:46,640
Speaker 3: game plan doesn't work through the first quarter, the middle eight,

772
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:49,319
Speaker 3: it's going to belong to Organ. So Utah first half

773
00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:52,400
Speaker 3: is my most favorite bet of this entire game, and

774
00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:54,640
Speaker 3: I think it'll come down to the wire. I like

775
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:56,960
Speaker 3: Utah to win, but first half for me, I'm way

776
00:39:57,000 --> 00:39:57,440
Speaker 3: more sure of.

777
00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just don't. I don't know if Organ's necessarily

778
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:03,319
Speaker 1: gonna break a lot of explosive plays. The reason that

779
00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:05,759
Speaker 1: Utah is giving up a lot of exposed places, it's

780
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:09,240
Speaker 1: an aggressive defense, right, they play aggressive man on the outside.

781
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:11,640
Speaker 1: Their defensive line is really aggressive. There's a reason that

782
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:14,160
Speaker 1: they're so high and stuff rate. Right, they're just trying

783
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:17,120
Speaker 1: to really get in the backfield and cause havoc. So

784
00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:20,880
Speaker 1: you know, there's if they miss, if the corners missing,

785
00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:24,759
Speaker 1: there's aggressive man like, there's you know, there's layers. But

786
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 1: I don't know if they have to necessarily play that way.

787
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:30,520
Speaker 1: They can really just say y anthey, Brown, you're not

788
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:31,799
Speaker 1: gonna beat me thrown so I don't have to worry

789
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:34,719
Speaker 1: about my man coverage on the outside and that like

790
00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 1: we can bring our safeties down. I don't worry about

791
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:40,640
Speaker 1: my safe like. So I'm not positive that Oregon is

792
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:43,799
Speaker 1: gonna have as much success as some think. And by

793
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:46,080
Speaker 1: the way, by some match ken.

794
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:48,319
Speaker 3: This amentjury is a wide receiver for Oregons. Yeah, Like

795
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:49,520
Speaker 3: the passing game is just.

796
00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, Johnson is out and looks like Johnson is out,

797
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 1: Pittman left the program, Tonna be a freshman, uh, and

798
00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 1: then they're number one receiver. It's basically it. And then

799
00:40:57,480 --> 00:41:01,720
Speaker 1: they throw to the back a lot as well. But look, Oregon,

800
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:04,200
Speaker 1: I believe you might have the numbers in front of

801
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 1: rush your defensive rush success right outside the top one hundred.

802
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 1: Guess who UH is in the top five and pretty

803
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 1: much every advanced metric in rushing offense. Utah early downs elite.

804
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:18,839
Speaker 1: They're not going to be in third and longs here.

805
00:41:19,360 --> 00:41:21,760
Speaker 1: I think they're going to be set up for success

806
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 1: all day to move the chains, and this offense is

807
00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:30,440
Speaker 1: just humming right now, give me the utes?

808
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:32,840
Speaker 3: Did you say ute?

809
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:37,520
Speaker 1: Yeah? All right, our final marquee game, we're going to

810
00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:44,120
Speaker 1: Conference USA for a huge showdown for the division between

811
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:51,560
Speaker 1: UAB and UTSA. Meet me USA is ten and zero.

812
00:41:52,239 --> 00:41:54,920
Speaker 1: They're now ranked twenty second the College twelve playoffall they're

813
00:41:55,080 --> 00:41:59,000
Speaker 1: four and a half point favorites here. UAB your boys,

814
00:41:59,360 --> 00:41:59,920
Speaker 1: who pulls us?

815
00:42:00,600 --> 00:42:03,040
Speaker 3: It's really tough to pick between the two. UAB a

816
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:05,359
Speaker 3: long time ago, before the Action Network is what it

817
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:08,360
Speaker 3: is today. We hit a twenty to one Conference Future

818
00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:11,920
Speaker 3: on Bill Clark and the Blazers, so I mean, we

819
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:14,160
Speaker 3: love them more than anything. But UTSA has been in

820
00:42:14,160 --> 00:42:17,719
Speaker 3: our lives since they became an FBS program, So this

821
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:19,600
Speaker 3: is it's tough to see these guys go up against

822
00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:22,880
Speaker 3: each other. But if UTSA wins, the Alamodome is the

823
00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:25,959
Speaker 3: host of the Conference USA championship game, so big, big

824
00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:29,520
Speaker 3: deal going on here. I project this UTSA minus three,

825
00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:31,279
Speaker 3: so there is value on the four and a half

826
00:42:31,280 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 3: for the Blazers, But the more I look at it,

827
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:35,719
Speaker 3: I have a tough time backing Bill Clark here. On

828
00:42:35,760 --> 00:42:38,680
Speaker 3: the road total is projected at fifty four. The numbers

829
00:42:38,719 --> 00:42:41,719
Speaker 3: fifty three and a half. It should be noted that

830
00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:45,360
Speaker 3: every UTSA game at home in the Alamodome has gone under,

831
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:49,280
Speaker 3: and all but one road game for UAB has gone under.

832
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:51,560
Speaker 3: So that's a pretty good combination for the fact that

833
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:53,839
Speaker 3: we might not get a lot of points. Both teams

834
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:56,719
Speaker 3: are ground based attacks. They have very different styles of

835
00:42:56,760 --> 00:42:59,560
Speaker 3: getting points on the board. UTSA runs a lot of eleven,

836
00:42:59,840 --> 00:43:02,399
Speaker 3: they switch into twelve for heavy rush packages. They don't

837
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:03,840
Speaker 3: throw to their tight ends, they just use them to

838
00:43:03,840 --> 00:43:06,680
Speaker 3: block for Sincere McCormick and quarterback Frank Harris when he

839
00:43:06,719 --> 00:43:09,799
Speaker 3: has designed runs and they're above national average and every

840
00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 3: offensive split from success rate to explosive drives, we all

841
00:43:12,520 --> 00:43:14,960
Speaker 3: know the utsay it is a great offense. The UAB

842
00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:18,000
Speaker 3: defense has been great at stuffing the rush. They're thirteenth

843
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 3: in the country and their eleventh in line yards. So

844
00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:23,880
Speaker 3: there's two losses on this schedule to Rice and Liberty,

845
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:26,359
Speaker 3: and you're like, holy cow, lost of Rice. How did

846
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 3: that happen? The main area of concern there was defensive

847
00:43:30,080 --> 00:43:34,560
Speaker 3: passing success rate. Both the thousand flames were above national

848
00:43:34,560 --> 00:43:37,719
Speaker 3: average and success rate throwing the ball. Liberty had eight

849
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:41,680
Speaker 3: explosive passes and UAB is one hundred and seventeenth in

850
00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:45,320
Speaker 3: defensive passing expected points. That means you can have explosive

851
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:47,960
Speaker 3: plays when you get behind and down in distances. So

852
00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:51,760
Speaker 3: expect Frank Harris to hit one of these three wide

853
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:55,239
Speaker 3: receivers Joshua Cephis to Kari Franklin to Corey and Cook.

854
00:43:55,680 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 3: Those guys may become big and third and long. And

855
00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:01,520
Speaker 3: UAB defensive finishing drives is an issue. There's sixty second

856
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:04,080
Speaker 3: in the country. They're one hundred and twentieth in defensive

857
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:06,680
Speaker 3: red zone TD. If UTSA gets into the red zone,

858
00:44:07,040 --> 00:44:09,839
Speaker 3: it's six points. So you know how that plays into

859
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:11,759
Speaker 3: the under I don't know, but UAB has given up

860
00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:14,040
Speaker 3: a lot of tds in the red zone. You flip

861
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:16,040
Speaker 3: over the other side of the offense has been Dylan Hopkins,

862
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:19,239
Speaker 3: a quarterback for the Blazers. He's been excellent in the

863
00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:23,240
Speaker 3: explosive pass fifth and passing EPA and UTSA is ninety

864
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:25,360
Speaker 3: first in coverage, So I mean the plan for Bill Clark,

865
00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:27,640
Speaker 3: a team that loves to run the ball, they're actually

866
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:29,839
Speaker 3: gonna have the most success throwing it deep, which they

867
00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:32,920
Speaker 3: will do. So UTSA has to create a havoc upfront

868
00:44:33,080 --> 00:44:35,799
Speaker 3: and stop UAB, and they're fifteenth and stuff right, which

869
00:44:35,800 --> 00:44:39,080
Speaker 3: should neutralize the rush and expose the offensive line and

870
00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:41,239
Speaker 3: passing down so you know UAB is one hundred and

871
00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:44,040
Speaker 3: fifth and havoc allowed. They allow everybody to get into

872
00:44:44,080 --> 00:44:47,360
Speaker 3: their backfield and they need Dylan Hopkins to throw it deep.

873
00:44:47,680 --> 00:44:50,520
Speaker 3: That's how they score points. So you know, passing downs

874
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:52,440
Speaker 3: have been bad for UAB this season. They're one hundred

875
00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 3: and twenty third in pass protection. Jeff Trailor, head coach

876
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:57,799
Speaker 3: of UTSA, he is going to send the house on

877
00:44:57,920 --> 00:45:01,200
Speaker 3: defense top twenty five rank and as down stack rate.

878
00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:04,759
Speaker 3: It's just a big advantage for UTSA and special teams too,

879
00:45:04,800 --> 00:45:07,719
Speaker 3: So I make it three. It's at four and a

880
00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:11,919
Speaker 3: half tons of advantages here for UTSA. I only see

881
00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:16,560
Speaker 3: UAB scoring with explosive passing, But for me, it's UTSA

882
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:19,479
Speaker 3: or nothing or UTSA any moneyline party piece.

883
00:45:21,200 --> 00:45:24,759
Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna disagree here, UAB is, I'm going

884
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:25,960
Speaker 1: I'm back in your U A B. Boy's one of

885
00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:28,920
Speaker 1: my favorite bets of the weekend. Plus four and a half,

886
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:34,000
Speaker 1: I make this a pick. And after digging into UTSA,

887
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 1: I'm not a believer. I'm not a believer. Meet me.

888
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:39,480
Speaker 1: So let me give you my case for why I'm

889
00:45:39,480 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 1: backing UA B. All right, So UTSA is ten and

890
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:44,759
Speaker 1: out right, I mean the program is on the rise.

891
00:45:45,440 --> 00:45:48,359
Speaker 1: Who have they beat? All right, well they beat They

892
00:45:48,360 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 1: won at Memphis. It's a good win. Oh well, then

893
00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:53,359
Speaker 1: you dig, you dig a little deeper, and you say,

894
00:45:53,400 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 1: oh wait. They scored seventeen unanswered in the fourth quarter

895
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:59,799
Speaker 1: to win by three because Memphis lost two fumbles in

896
00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:01,719
Speaker 1: a two personal fouls. At the end of the game,

897
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:07,680
Speaker 1: Memphis out gained UTSA uh and they average almost three

898
00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:11,879
Speaker 1: yards more per play. Fluke win. Okay. They also beat

899
00:46:11,920 --> 00:46:16,160
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky on the road. Pretty good win. Western Kentucky

900
00:46:16,160 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 1: had seven hundred yards and they didn't score the game

901
00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:22,760
Speaker 1: winning touchdown after having first in goal at the five

902
00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:26,520
Speaker 1: UTSA five because of a personal foul. And then guess

903
00:46:26,560 --> 00:46:31,360
Speaker 1: what an interception, another flukey win that went their way. Okay,

904
00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:36,760
Speaker 1: so two fortunate coin flips. Who else they beat? All right? Illinois, Lamar,

905
00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:51,080
Speaker 1: Middle Tennessee, UNLV, Rice, La Tech, UTEP, Southern Miss, Absolute Poverty,

906
00:46:51,719 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 1: Southern Miss, and some backup quarterbacks in there had some

907
00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:59,880
Speaker 1: wildcat it was, you know, these third string Lamar just

908
00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:04,239
Speaker 1: disastrous offenses, disastrous teams, just straight prop poverty. Those eight

909
00:47:04,239 --> 00:47:06,359
Speaker 1: teams have a combined record of twenty five and fifty four.

910
00:47:06,400 --> 00:47:09,240
Speaker 1: That's thirty one percent. Only UTEP as a winning record.

911
00:47:09,719 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 1: When you have eight wins a group of eight teams

912
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:17,360
Speaker 1: that you've played and only UTEP UTEP is the best one. Sorry,

913
00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:20,239
Speaker 1: I'll pass out. That's not great. The schedule's obviously been

914
00:47:20,320 --> 00:47:24,520
Speaker 1: very favorable. Meanwhile, UAB they've played Georgia, they played Liberty,

915
00:47:24,560 --> 00:47:26,920
Speaker 1: they just beat Marshall on the road. My ultimate point is,

916
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 1: don't be fooled by the differences in the records here.

917
00:47:30,360 --> 00:47:32,920
Speaker 1: And if you look at some of utsa's advanced metrics,

918
00:47:33,120 --> 00:47:35,759
Speaker 1: you kind have made this handicap for me. But there

919
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:39,680
Speaker 1: are some worrying signs. The defense has thrived on late downs,

920
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:43,239
Speaker 1: the third and fourth downs. They've been great, but they're

921
00:47:43,280 --> 00:47:47,719
Speaker 1: eighty fifth in early down EPA. That's not really sustainable,

922
00:47:47,760 --> 00:47:50,799
Speaker 1: especially when you consider the offenses they've been facing. And

923
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 1: you know their run defense has been good, but they

924
00:47:55,480 --> 00:47:58,880
Speaker 1: haven't really faced many good run offenses. And UAV offenses

925
00:47:59,000 --> 00:48:03,080
Speaker 1: top twenty in the country VPA per rush and most importantly,

926
00:48:03,120 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 1: as you said, the biggest UAB. Yeah, they have some

927
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:08,520
Speaker 1: falls with it's a top twenty five. I think defense nationally,

928
00:48:10,000 --> 00:48:15,120
Speaker 1: the biggest weakness in this entire game, by far, in

929
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:17,719
Speaker 1: my opinion, is the UTSA secondary. Think about the teams

930
00:48:17,760 --> 00:48:21,560
Speaker 1: I just listed, yet they're still outside the top ninety

931
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:27,719
Speaker 1: in success rate against the pass. Jillan Hopkins can exploit that,

932
00:48:28,440 --> 00:48:31,560
Speaker 1: and I think that's the biggest difference in this game.

933
00:48:32,040 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 1: I think UTSA is a bit of a paper tiger

934
00:48:35,160 --> 00:48:37,160
Speaker 1: based on their schedule and a couple of flukey wins,

935
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:43,000
Speaker 1: and I think UAB goes into the Alamodome and gets

936
00:48:43,000 --> 00:48:48,040
Speaker 1: this win out right, gimme you're a boy. Bill Clark

937
00:48:49,320 --> 00:48:52,480
Speaker 1: and the UAB Blazers.

938
00:48:51,840 --> 00:48:54,480
Speaker 3: Blasphemy against the UTSA. They're eight and two against the

939
00:48:54,520 --> 00:48:57,560
Speaker 3: spread this season. Come on now, blasphemy.

940
00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:02,279
Speaker 1: Well, when you play Illinois, Lamar Middle Tennessee UNLB Riights

941
00:49:02,320 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 1: Louisiana tech utep in Southern miss That might happen. All right,

942
00:49:07,560 --> 00:49:08,880
Speaker 1: now I'm excited for this game. Well off to do

943
00:49:08,960 --> 00:49:13,920
Speaker 1: a side wager. All right, that'll do it any Rebuttal,

944
00:49:14,400 --> 00:49:15,720
Speaker 1: you already owely dinner in Vegas?

945
00:49:15,719 --> 00:49:17,120
Speaker 3: What else we're gonna and you know what, You're gonna

946
00:49:17,160 --> 00:49:19,040
Speaker 3: lose a breaking bad bit for the back twelve South?

947
00:49:19,080 --> 00:49:20,000
Speaker 3: What else you want to lose?

948
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:23,080
Speaker 1: You didn't deserve that. You didn't deserve that dinner either,

949
00:49:23,120 --> 00:49:25,440
Speaker 1: But I but I will, I will buy it. What

950
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:31,400
Speaker 1: was it? It was that? It was the Wisconsin Army?

951
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:32,799
Speaker 1: Is it the Wisconsin Army?

952
00:49:32,880 --> 00:49:32,920
Speaker 3: No?

953
00:49:33,040 --> 00:49:36,280
Speaker 1: Iowa? Iowa total yards one hundred and forty nine totally

954
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:38,480
Speaker 1: went over. They went over on the last drive. I

955
00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:43,960
Speaker 1: just fucking garbage like that, entire Iowa offense just hot,

956
00:49:44,160 --> 00:49:49,560
Speaker 1: hot garbage. All right, that does it for our marquee

957
00:49:49,640 --> 00:49:54,760
Speaker 1: games of the weekend. Let's move on to the rundown.

958
00:49:55,560 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 1: Let's go rapid fire and cover a bunch of games here.

959
00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:01,880
Speaker 1: Let's uh, I just did a long rant on UAB,

960
00:50:02,680 --> 00:50:07,000
Speaker 1: so I'm curious I was interested in this game. I

961
00:50:07,000 --> 00:50:08,799
Speaker 1: don't know if I'm no longer, I don't know if

962
00:50:08,800 --> 00:50:12,560
Speaker 1: I'm interested anymore, let me tell me if these sound familiar.

963
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:17,480
Speaker 1: Fifty two to three, forty eight to seven, sixty five

964
00:50:17,520 --> 00:50:22,919
Speaker 1: to thirty one, forty one to nine, forty nine to thirty. Oh, look,

965
00:50:22,960 --> 00:50:26,720
Speaker 1: twenty seven to fourteen, fourteen to thirteen, fifty two nothing,

966
00:50:26,920 --> 00:50:29,520
Speaker 1: fifty two nothing. Do you know what these are?

967
00:50:29,840 --> 00:50:31,440
Speaker 3: These are Arkansas Alabama scores.

968
00:50:32,040 --> 00:50:37,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, so the question is Arkansas plus twenty one against Alabama?

969
00:50:39,360 --> 00:50:42,880
Speaker 1: I don't like, I want to take arkansall air, but

970
00:50:42,920 --> 00:50:45,080
Speaker 1: I'm not sure that they can consistently move the ball.

971
00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:48,520
Speaker 1: But Alabama has flaws. But some weeks will just look

972
00:50:48,560 --> 00:50:50,319
Speaker 1: great and then some weeks they'll forget how to cover

973
00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:54,440
Speaker 1: and their offensive line as issues. Their backfield is also

974
00:50:55,320 --> 00:50:56,879
Speaker 1: really thin, so I'm not sure if that means they're

975
00:50:56,880 --> 00:50:58,520
Speaker 1: going to come up throwing more if they're going to

976
00:50:58,600 --> 00:51:02,640
Speaker 1: just worry about their health at the end. And album

977
00:51:02,719 --> 00:51:05,200
Speaker 1: is tough, tough nut to crack on a week to

978
00:51:05,239 --> 00:51:08,680
Speaker 1: week basis. So Colin on his hogs, what do you

979
00:51:08,719 --> 00:51:09,240
Speaker 1: got here.

980
00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:13,040
Speaker 3: Woo pig suy As I sit here in my brand

981
00:51:13,080 --> 00:51:16,360
Speaker 3: new Fable hat that a company and over in Fable

982
00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:19,839
Speaker 3: put out that Muscleman was wearing yesterday on Instagram. As

983
00:51:19,840 --> 00:51:22,839
Speaker 3: far as Arkansas football goes, I think we should start

984
00:51:22,880 --> 00:51:25,319
Speaker 3: with the presser and kind of base a lot of

985
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:30,680
Speaker 3: our handicap on what I heard from Sam Pittman. He

986
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:32,960
Speaker 3: says that his toughest job this week is to get

987
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:35,080
Speaker 3: the player, is to convince the players that they can

988
00:51:35,080 --> 00:51:38,000
Speaker 3: compete with Alabama. And if you can make the players

989
00:51:38,040 --> 00:51:40,160
Speaker 3: believe that they can beat Alabama, then they'll go out

990
00:51:40,200 --> 00:51:41,960
Speaker 3: there and give out their best efforts. So it sounds

991
00:51:41,960 --> 00:51:45,600
Speaker 3: like he's got to do a therapy session. After two

992
00:51:45,640 --> 00:51:48,640
Speaker 3: straight SEC West wins against Mississippi State and an overtime

993
00:51:48,680 --> 00:51:51,480
Speaker 3: win on the road against LSU, now he goes on

994
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 3: the road again. But even as Pittman is saying all

995
00:51:54,680 --> 00:51:58,320
Speaker 3: the right things, he also mentioned Missouri twice in the presser.

996
00:51:58,680 --> 00:52:02,680
Speaker 3: But I'm really glad This literally says, I'm really glad

997
00:52:02,719 --> 00:52:04,920
Speaker 3: this game is in the afternoon because we have a

998
00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:07,200
Speaker 3: short week and play Missouri on Friday, And then later

999
00:52:07,239 --> 00:52:09,440
Speaker 3: on he mentioned Missouri again. It's like, and you know

1000
00:52:09,520 --> 00:52:12,719
Speaker 3: what's really like, subliminally what I'm hearing, even though he's

1001
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:15,680
Speaker 3: not saying it, what I'm hearing. Well, if I get

1002
00:52:15,719 --> 00:52:17,640
Speaker 3: to eight wins, I get another two hundred fifty thousand

1003
00:52:17,640 --> 00:52:20,280
Speaker 3: dollars bonus in my contract is what I'm hearing, right,

1004
00:52:20,600 --> 00:52:23,120
Speaker 3: because he got he has it in his contract, Like

1005
00:52:23,160 --> 00:52:24,919
Speaker 3: two hundred and fifty thousand are going to a ball.

1006
00:52:25,120 --> 00:52:27,880
Speaker 3: Two fifty for seven wins, another two fifty for eight wins.

1007
00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:30,400
Speaker 3: So he's sitting on seven wins and he's staring at

1008
00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:33,480
Speaker 3: Alabama Missouri, and you gotta be shitting me if you

1009
00:52:33,520 --> 00:52:36,600
Speaker 3: think that he's gonna throw all of his offensive explosive

1010
00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:39,160
Speaker 3: players out there that are beat up anyways. Treylon Smith

1011
00:52:39,200 --> 00:52:41,560
Speaker 3: is a running the ball. Raim Sanders isn't even gonna

1012
00:52:41,560 --> 00:52:45,239
Speaker 3: play in this game. Dominie Johnson has been like used everywhere,

1013
00:52:45,440 --> 00:52:47,440
Speaker 3: and Traylon Burks. No one can get a ball to

1014
00:52:47,480 --> 00:52:49,960
Speaker 3: Traylon Burks because he's been quadruple team to every game

1015
00:52:49,960 --> 00:52:52,000
Speaker 3: that he's played. Because that's the only place that kJ

1016
00:52:52,080 --> 00:52:55,200
Speaker 3: Jefferson looks to throw. Treylon Burks has triple amount of

1017
00:52:55,200 --> 00:52:58,279
Speaker 3: targets as anybody else on the team. kJ Jefferson when

1018
00:52:58,280 --> 00:53:00,200
Speaker 3: he gets some passing downs, doesn't know what to do

1019
00:53:00,360 --> 00:53:04,000
Speaker 3: except look for Treylon Burks. So when you listen to

1020
00:53:04,080 --> 00:53:07,240
Speaker 3: Pittman's press conference, I think they want to get into

1021
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:11,120
Speaker 3: Tuscalusa and get out of Tuscaloosa as fast as possible.

1022
00:53:11,160 --> 00:53:13,720
Speaker 3: I love you Arkansas, if any of you are listening,

1023
00:53:14,320 --> 00:53:16,200
Speaker 3: if you know, I mean, that's just the way I

1024
00:53:16,200 --> 00:53:18,719
Speaker 3: came from that press conference. Now let's talk about this.

1025
00:53:19,239 --> 00:53:23,840
Speaker 1: Sounds maybe like an under well, okay, they're going to

1026
00:53:23,880 --> 00:53:25,400
Speaker 1: go fast. It doesn't.

1027
00:53:25,480 --> 00:53:28,440
Speaker 3: But you just rattled off a bunch of fifty burgers. Okay,

1028
00:53:28,840 --> 00:53:30,000
Speaker 3: So I mean, here's the deal.

1029
00:53:30,239 --> 00:53:32,239
Speaker 1: Now, fifty nothing stays under.

1030
00:53:33,360 --> 00:53:36,680
Speaker 3: The style that Arkansaw wants to play is what gets

1031
00:53:36,719 --> 00:53:39,120
Speaker 3: them in deep shit here. The Razorbacks want to be

1032
00:53:39,160 --> 00:53:41,560
Speaker 3: physical on the offensive line. They want to run their

1033
00:53:41,640 --> 00:53:44,960
Speaker 3: running backs and kJ Jefferson against those defenses. And that's

1034
00:53:45,000 --> 00:53:47,600
Speaker 3: not going to work with all those injuries I just mentioned.

1035
00:53:47,760 --> 00:53:50,640
Speaker 3: And Will Anderson is going to require Arkansas to continue

1036
00:53:50,719 --> 00:53:53,759
Speaker 3: lineup and tight ends for chip blocking, something Pittman has

1037
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:55,920
Speaker 3: said out loud. I'm tired of using tight at the

1038
00:53:56,000 --> 00:53:58,240
Speaker 3: chip block. I need them in the passing game. kJ

1039
00:53:58,320 --> 00:54:01,120
Speaker 3: Jefferson in the passing down when he has pressure, he

1040
00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:04,000
Speaker 3: makes terrible decisions and he only looks for trail on burks.

1041
00:54:04,360 --> 00:54:07,520
Speaker 3: Now I mentioned Arkansas just came off of two sec

1042
00:54:07,640 --> 00:54:10,320
Speaker 3: West games that they won an overtime game with LSU

1043
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:13,600
Speaker 3: where there was heavy blitz. Alabama's coming off New Mexico State,

1044
00:54:15,239 --> 00:54:17,600
Speaker 3: you know, they're much more fresh. Even though Roydale Williams

1045
00:54:17,640 --> 00:54:19,879
Speaker 3: is out for the season. Bryce Young got to take

1046
00:54:19,920 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 3: some deep shots. The bread and butter for him is

1047
00:54:22,080 --> 00:54:24,799
Speaker 3: hitting open spaces on the field And that doesn't matter

1048
00:54:24,840 --> 00:54:28,040
Speaker 3: if it's a deep shot or if it's checked down

1049
00:54:28,080 --> 00:54:30,719
Speaker 3: city And why is that important? Because Barry odom is

1050
00:54:30,760 --> 00:54:33,840
Speaker 3: going to rush three, drop eight, and there's going to

1051
00:54:33,880 --> 00:54:36,279
Speaker 3: be pockets on the sides and in the middle that

1052
00:54:36,360 --> 00:54:38,719
Speaker 3: Bryce Young is going to exploit all day or Brian

1053
00:54:38,800 --> 00:54:41,319
Speaker 3: Robinson's going to run the ball. But the deal is

1054
00:54:41,320 --> 00:54:44,680
Speaker 3: is that I see them a problem with Alabama right

1055
00:54:44,680 --> 00:54:46,560
Speaker 3: if there's one fly I could put in the ointment

1056
00:54:46,600 --> 00:54:49,200
Speaker 3: and all this is that Chris Owens and Darian Dolcourt

1057
00:54:49,320 --> 00:54:53,040
Speaker 3: have been horrible at the center position. Chris Owens has

1058
00:54:53,040 --> 00:54:56,040
Speaker 3: been terrible at right tackle. Damian George when he filled in,

1059
00:54:56,120 --> 00:54:59,360
Speaker 3: has been terrible. This Alabama offensive line is going to

1060
00:54:59,360 --> 00:55:01,359
Speaker 3: be under a mic scope when I take Auburn here

1061
00:55:01,360 --> 00:55:03,440
Speaker 3: on this podcast next week, and when I take Georgia

1062
00:55:03,440 --> 00:55:07,839
Speaker 3: in the SEC Championship. But Arkansas, John Ridgeway is going to,

1063
00:55:07,960 --> 00:55:10,200
Speaker 3: you know, get some pressure on center. He's going to

1064
00:55:10,239 --> 00:55:11,879
Speaker 3: be able to go up the gut. And that's why

1065
00:55:11,880 --> 00:55:13,960
Speaker 3: I expect Bryce Young to be dumping this thing off

1066
00:55:14,000 --> 00:55:17,279
Speaker 3: as fast as possible. Uh, you know, so they're not

1067
00:55:17,280 --> 00:55:19,480
Speaker 3: gonna be able to get any pressure on Bryce Young whatsoever.

1068
00:55:20,560 --> 00:55:23,280
Speaker 3: You know, Arkansas's defense is all about preventing the big play.

1069
00:55:23,560 --> 00:55:26,520
Speaker 3: Bryce Young is going to take what they give them.

1070
00:55:27,160 --> 00:55:30,160
Speaker 3: Bama mind is twenty one or better. You can't be

1071
00:55:30,880 --> 00:55:34,520
Speaker 3: you can't adopt this physical attitude, punch you in the

1072
00:55:34,560 --> 00:55:38,000
Speaker 3: face and then go play Alabama. And at the same time,

1073
00:55:38,440 --> 00:55:40,480
Speaker 3: when Old Miss tried to rush three and drop eight,

1074
00:55:40,880 --> 00:55:43,520
Speaker 3: Brian Robinson ran forty times and they they ran Old

1075
00:55:43,520 --> 00:55:46,680
Speaker 3: Miss up a flagpole, right, So, I there's just there's

1076
00:55:46,719 --> 00:55:49,040
Speaker 3: no way to cover this number. There's no way to

1077
00:55:49,080 --> 00:55:52,000
Speaker 3: beat them. We only have one wide receiver. There's just

1078
00:55:52,080 --> 00:55:56,680
Speaker 3: there's Alabama's You can't punch a guy in the face.

1079
00:55:56,719 --> 00:55:59,360
Speaker 3: It's ten times bigger than you with ten times the players,

1080
00:55:59,480 --> 00:56:01,680
Speaker 3: and so it's just a bad matchup for us in

1081
00:56:01,719 --> 00:56:03,080
Speaker 3: our style. I don't know when we're ever going to

1082
00:56:03,120 --> 00:56:04,759
Speaker 3: beat Alabama at the way they.

1083
00:56:04,680 --> 00:56:06,960
Speaker 1: Were so we're laying it. We're lying it with the tide.

1084
00:56:07,280 --> 00:56:10,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I'm sorry. I just I don't know. There's

1085
00:56:10,200 --> 00:56:13,399
Speaker 3: just so much going on here, Like I don't think

1086
00:56:13,400 --> 00:56:15,560
Speaker 3: we will I feel like we don't want to go, right.

1087
00:56:15,600 --> 00:56:17,120
Speaker 3: I think we just want to play the Missouri game,

1088
00:56:17,160 --> 00:56:19,680
Speaker 3: get the eighth win, get our Florida Bowl, and boom,

1089
00:56:19,760 --> 00:56:22,040
Speaker 3: huge season. Right, I don't know.

1090
00:56:22,040 --> 00:56:24,960
Speaker 1: All right, I'm laying I'm laying it with Alabama. That's

1091
00:56:25,200 --> 00:56:28,000
Speaker 1: something I've laying twenty one with Alba. Your boys better.

1092
00:56:29,080 --> 00:56:31,280
Speaker 1: I think they hooked me up last week in overtime.

1093
00:56:31,560 --> 00:56:34,040
Speaker 1: But Yeahbama should be much more arrested by the way. Yeah,

1094
00:56:34,160 --> 00:56:38,200
Speaker 1: Arkansas in a dog fight, and then Alabama played New

1095
00:56:38,239 --> 00:56:41,480
Speaker 1: Mexico State and SABAN went bonkers up fifty nine to

1096
00:56:41,520 --> 00:56:43,799
Speaker 1: three because of an off sides call with ten minutes

1097
00:56:43,840 --> 00:56:46,320
Speaker 1: ago in the fourth quarter. Another game I want to

1098
00:56:46,360 --> 00:56:51,759
Speaker 1: get to Nebraska plus nine at Wisconsin. Wisconsin, they're just

1099
00:56:51,880 --> 00:56:53,840
Speaker 1: in control of their own destiny. They're playing as well

1100
00:56:54,239 --> 00:56:56,879
Speaker 1: as anybody, but they haven't really been they haven't really

1101
00:56:56,880 --> 00:57:00,320
Speaker 1: been playing anyone, but they've just been dominating, dominating anyone

1102
00:57:00,320 --> 00:57:03,360
Speaker 1: in their way. Why, well, Marx has played a little

1103
00:57:03,360 --> 00:57:06,920
Speaker 1: better I was against Northwestern Rutgers. I'm not taking too

1104
00:57:07,000 --> 00:57:08,960
Speaker 1: much for the Gramdmarks. This is still Graham Marks. It's

1105
00:57:08,960 --> 00:57:11,720
Speaker 1: Bragan Now running the ball, who's been excellent. He's averaging

1106
00:57:11,719 --> 00:57:15,520
Speaker 1: over seven yards per carry, sixty five percent of those

1107
00:57:15,640 --> 00:57:20,160
Speaker 1: after contact, So I mean, he's just he's unbelievable and

1108
00:57:20,200 --> 00:57:23,960
Speaker 1: a huge upgrade over MALUSI. But I think it's finally

1109
00:57:24,000 --> 00:57:28,720
Speaker 1: time to sell Wisconsin. Who do we got? Nebraska? Three

1110
00:57:28,720 --> 00:57:32,000
Speaker 1: and seven? Nebraska maybe the best three and seven team

1111
00:57:32,040 --> 00:57:33,280
Speaker 1: in the history of college football.

1112
00:57:34,080 --> 00:57:37,480
Speaker 3: Nebraska. Honestly, it's not for everyone.

1113
00:57:37,720 --> 00:57:40,240
Speaker 1: A team that has seven losses all by one possession,

1114
00:57:40,560 --> 00:57:42,800
Speaker 1: A team that has played four teams in the top

1115
00:57:42,840 --> 00:57:45,640
Speaker 1: thirteen of the College Fool Playoff rankings all to within

1116
00:57:45,680 --> 00:57:48,320
Speaker 1: one possession, could have won all four of them. As

1117
00:57:48,360 --> 00:57:50,360
Speaker 1: a team that plays up to everyone that plays bad

1118
00:57:50,400 --> 00:57:52,360
Speaker 1: favor because they make mistake, shoot themselves in the foot,

1119
00:57:52,600 --> 00:57:55,560
Speaker 1: horrible special teams. But what do you have to do

1120
00:57:55,600 --> 00:57:57,920
Speaker 1: against Wisconsin? You got to stop the run, all right, Well,

1121
00:57:58,520 --> 00:58:01,480
Speaker 1: they've showed they can do that. Kenneth Walker nineteen carries

1122
00:58:01,520 --> 00:58:05,000
Speaker 1: for sixty one yards in a game Nebraska wins without

1123
00:58:05,040 --> 00:58:07,720
Speaker 1: a punt return for a touchdown. By Michigan State. Trevon

1124
00:58:07,760 --> 00:58:11,400
Speaker 1: Henderson for Ohio State twenty one carries for ninety two yards.

1125
00:58:11,880 --> 00:58:17,280
Speaker 1: They've shut down opposing rushing attacks and look this is

1126
00:58:17,400 --> 00:58:18,840
Speaker 1: they can go in and this will go one of

1127
00:58:18,880 --> 00:58:21,000
Speaker 1: two ways. The Brestic could have quit because they lost

1128
00:58:21,000 --> 00:58:22,720
Speaker 1: that close game to Ohio State and then they can't

1129
00:58:22,720 --> 00:58:25,760
Speaker 1: go to a ball Scott Frost made a bunch of

1130
00:58:25,840 --> 00:58:28,560
Speaker 1: changes on the offensive staff. They had to buy the

1131
00:58:28,560 --> 00:58:30,600
Speaker 1: two weeks to prepare for this game. I think they

1132
00:58:30,600 --> 00:58:34,880
Speaker 1: treat this basically as their super Bowl, and Adrian Martinez

1133
00:58:35,720 --> 00:58:38,280
Speaker 1: is a weapon here because you can't move. You cannot

1134
00:58:38,280 --> 00:58:40,880
Speaker 1: move the ball against this Wisconsin dvens. You can't run it.

1135
00:58:41,200 --> 00:58:43,480
Speaker 1: Breskas even try to run it. They camp, you can't

1136
00:58:43,480 --> 00:58:45,320
Speaker 1: sustain Joss. You need to hit explosive plays and you

1137
00:58:45,360 --> 00:58:48,680
Speaker 1: need a mobile quarterback. That's how you can kind of

1138
00:58:49,680 --> 00:58:52,440
Speaker 1: try to move the ball against his very disciplined and

1139
00:58:52,600 --> 00:58:55,560
Speaker 1: very stout Wisconsin defense. Scoonson's defense been very stout the

1140
00:58:55,600 --> 00:58:59,480
Speaker 1: past three years. Adrian Martinez in his freshman year he

1141
00:58:59,480 --> 00:59:02,480
Speaker 1: play Wisconsin, had four hundred and four total yards of

1142
00:59:02,480 --> 00:59:05,760
Speaker 1: offense by himself. The next year he had like three

1143
00:59:05,840 --> 00:59:08,680
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty. I mean, he's played extremely well against

1144
00:59:08,680 --> 00:59:11,040
Speaker 1: his Wisconsin defense because he can get them out of

1145
00:59:11,320 --> 00:59:14,840
Speaker 1: what they like to do with his legs, create time,

1146
00:59:14,920 --> 00:59:18,480
Speaker 1: explosive plays, keep drives alive, and yeah, he might make

1147
00:59:18,480 --> 00:59:22,000
Speaker 1: some mistakes, but so will Marks if this Nebraska run

1148
00:59:22,080 --> 00:59:23,919
Speaker 1: defense shows up. But I assume they're just gonna load

1149
00:59:23,920 --> 00:59:26,200
Speaker 1: the box, and I expect them to do so. They

1150
00:59:26,200 --> 00:59:30,240
Speaker 1: have a great front seven, very talented linebacker, bad special

1151
00:59:30,240 --> 00:59:33,320
Speaker 1: teams with Nebraska. Wisconson has some holes and special teams too,

1152
00:59:33,480 --> 00:59:35,840
Speaker 1: but Martinez can make some things happen with his legs.

1153
00:59:36,200 --> 00:59:38,880
Speaker 1: And by the way, Wisconsin has faced nothing but statues

1154
00:59:38,920 --> 00:59:41,040
Speaker 1: this year. This will be the first time they face

1155
00:59:41,120 --> 00:59:45,440
Speaker 1: the mobile quarterback all year. And I think another thing

1156
00:59:45,480 --> 00:59:49,240
Speaker 1: that's working in Nebraska's favor is they had they have

1157
00:59:49,280 --> 00:59:52,280
Speaker 1: a whole new offensive staff and they had two weeks

1158
00:59:52,280 --> 00:59:59,040
Speaker 1: to prepare. What does that mean mystery new wrinkles, trick plays,

1159
00:59:59,400 --> 01:00:02,320
Speaker 1: things that aren't on tape that Wisconsin can't prepare for.

1160
01:00:02,960 --> 01:00:07,640
Speaker 1: And Martinez is already ultimate wild card. Nebraska just got

1161
01:00:07,680 --> 01:00:09,800
Speaker 1: to keep this in one possession. It's all them at

1162
01:00:09,800 --> 01:00:12,800
Speaker 1: all year against ranked teams. I expect them to find

1163
01:00:12,800 --> 01:00:15,320
Speaker 1: a way to lose the game, but I expect them

1164
01:00:15,880 --> 01:00:17,520
Speaker 1: to cover this number.

1165
01:00:18,680 --> 01:00:22,720
Speaker 3: Thoughts that was an absolute one or percent fantastic handicap

1166
01:00:22,720 --> 01:00:24,360
Speaker 3: because I have the same I actually dug it into

1167
01:00:24,360 --> 01:00:26,400
Speaker 3: the twenty eighteen twenty nineteen box scores to get the

1168
01:00:26,400 --> 01:00:29,120
Speaker 3: same stuff out of what Adrian Martinez has done, because

1169
01:00:29,160 --> 01:00:31,400
Speaker 3: you look at the list of quarterbacks Wisconsin has played,

1170
01:00:31,440 --> 01:00:35,840
Speaker 3: and they have not seen Adrian Martinez, and I would

1171
01:00:35,840 --> 01:00:40,760
Speaker 3: not even entertain Wisconsin over seven in this game. You know,

1172
01:00:40,840 --> 01:00:43,440
Speaker 3: Nebraska is great at stopping the supposed to play their

1173
01:00:43,480 --> 01:00:45,960
Speaker 3: third in the nation and big play prevention, their top

1174
01:00:46,000 --> 01:00:49,439
Speaker 3: twenty in defensive finishing drives. So Brayln Allen, while he's

1175
01:00:49,440 --> 01:00:52,280
Speaker 3: been wonderful and I had no problems laying twenty four

1176
01:00:52,680 --> 01:00:56,120
Speaker 3: against Northwestern, Allen goes out there and has three touchdowns,

1177
01:00:56,120 --> 01:00:59,800
Speaker 3: five point six yards after contact, a season high nine mistackles.

1178
01:01:01,760 --> 01:01:04,440
Speaker 3: You know that is going to be something that Wisconsin

1179
01:01:05,040 --> 01:01:06,560
Speaker 3: is going to have to deal with. Now. They are

1180
01:01:06,680 --> 01:01:09,160
Speaker 3: number one in a lot of categories down the board,

1181
01:01:09,240 --> 01:01:12,120
Speaker 3: but as Stuck mentioned, they played a bunch of statues.

1182
01:01:12,120 --> 01:01:14,960
Speaker 3: They haven't really seen that extra man, the dual threat

1183
01:01:15,040 --> 01:01:18,200
Speaker 3: quarterback that can take off. So you know, I think

1184
01:01:18,720 --> 01:01:21,160
Speaker 3: the total is more interesting to me. I think, Nebraska,

1185
01:01:21,200 --> 01:01:22,760
Speaker 3: you got to play down to the seven, and I

1186
01:01:22,760 --> 01:01:24,520
Speaker 3: can see that some big money's coming in on Corn

1187
01:01:24,560 --> 01:01:28,200
Speaker 3: It's actually pushed it through these neutral I'm sorry these

1188
01:01:28,440 --> 01:01:32,080
Speaker 3: dead numbers, but I think when the total gets to

1189
01:01:32,120 --> 01:01:34,240
Speaker 3: forty one is when I was looking to fire on

1190
01:01:34,280 --> 01:01:37,400
Speaker 3: the over. I know the pace is extremely slow one

1191
01:01:37,480 --> 01:01:40,800
Speaker 3: hundred and twenty first, both teams and defensive Finisi drives

1192
01:01:40,840 --> 01:01:43,840
Speaker 3: are six and eighteenth. But you know, this is a

1193
01:01:43,880 --> 01:01:46,880
Speaker 3: game that I projected to point total of forty five,

1194
01:01:46,920 --> 01:01:48,920
Speaker 3: But the next key number is forty one. I'm not

1195
01:01:48,920 --> 01:01:50,520
Speaker 3: sure it's going to get down that low. The weather

1196
01:01:50,640 --> 01:01:54,440
Speaker 3: is fine, but Wisconsin's defense, I think Adrian Martinez can

1197
01:01:54,480 --> 01:01:56,680
Speaker 3: get two scores up on them, and then at the

1198
01:01:56,720 --> 01:01:59,800
Speaker 3: same time, you know, Braylen Allen's running well enough. I

1199
01:01:59,800 --> 01:02:01,360
Speaker 3: think they can keep up and get some scores of

1200
01:02:01,400 --> 01:02:04,120
Speaker 3: their own. So you know, I'm not saying I want

1201
01:02:04,120 --> 01:02:05,800
Speaker 3: to buy the over. I'm just saying forty one is

1202
01:02:05,800 --> 01:02:09,240
Speaker 3: the bypoint. But yes, Nebraska down to seven, You're exactly right.

1203
01:02:09,280 --> 01:02:13,040
Speaker 3: Wisconsin has built these defensive stats against quarterbacks that cannot

1204
01:02:13,080 --> 01:02:15,360
Speaker 3: leave the tackles outside the tackles whatsoever.

1205
01:02:16,680 --> 01:02:19,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. Hopefully Nebraska moves to five and zero

1206
01:02:19,920 --> 01:02:22,120
Speaker 1: against the spread as an underdog this year, all against

1207
01:02:22,200 --> 01:02:24,840
Speaker 1: ranked teams. All right, it's time for our stick of

1208
01:02:24,880 --> 01:02:28,040
Speaker 1: the week. Smelly, smelly, s melly.

1209
01:02:28,600 --> 01:02:29,320
Speaker 3: It's the smell.

1210
01:02:29,920 --> 01:02:34,480
Speaker 1: It's quite pungent. Dude, plug your nose, it's stinks. This

1211
01:02:35,080 --> 01:02:43,760
Speaker 1: is your stink of the week. Small wake Forest catching

1212
01:02:43,880 --> 01:02:46,880
Speaker 1: four and a half against Clemson. I hate you, Clemson.

1213
01:02:47,520 --> 01:02:50,360
Speaker 1: I laid forty with you last week and you should

1214
01:02:50,400 --> 01:02:53,440
Speaker 1: have covered. I think they ran ninety nine plays and

1215
01:02:53,480 --> 01:02:55,880
Speaker 1: gave up ninety nine yards and didn't cover because they

1216
01:02:55,920 --> 01:02:58,440
Speaker 1: fumbled at the goal line at the one yard line.

1217
01:02:58,440 --> 01:02:59,760
Speaker 1: How man times are gonna lose a fumble in the

1218
01:02:59,760 --> 01:03:00,200
Speaker 1: goal line?

1219
01:03:00,800 --> 01:03:00,920
Speaker 4: Uh?

1220
01:03:01,080 --> 01:03:02,360
Speaker 1: And then they gave up a kick return for a

1221
01:03:02,440 --> 01:03:06,120
Speaker 1: touchdown on That's the only way Yukon scored. When the

1222
01:03:06,680 --> 01:03:09,440
Speaker 1: returner dropped the ball and Muffet picked it up and

1223
01:03:09,440 --> 01:03:11,680
Speaker 1: then ran it ran the opening kickback for a touchdown,

1224
01:03:11,920 --> 01:03:14,400
Speaker 1: and then Yukon just took dumps on the field for

1225
01:03:14,440 --> 01:03:17,720
Speaker 1: the rest of the game and covered because Clemson couldn't

1226
01:03:17,720 --> 01:03:20,160
Speaker 1: punch it in from the one lost to fumble. But

1227
01:03:20,280 --> 01:03:22,360
Speaker 1: I will say the Clemson offense looked awful. That's just

1228
01:03:22,360 --> 01:03:25,160
Speaker 1: how bad Yukon is. You go it. I mean they

1229
01:03:25,160 --> 01:03:27,280
Speaker 1: can't throw the ball. They couldn't throw the ball against Yukon.

1230
01:03:27,680 --> 01:03:29,960
Speaker 1: But I still have the defense is still elite, and

1231
01:03:30,000 --> 01:03:32,040
Speaker 1: I still have questions about the Lake Forest offense against

1232
01:03:32,040 --> 01:03:34,440
Speaker 1: elite defenses. They won last week for me, but they

1233
01:03:34,440 --> 01:03:38,200
Speaker 1: weren't great. But I don't try. I'm not Look this

1234
01:03:38,280 --> 01:03:40,480
Speaker 1: line says like Clemson's gonna win and cover as soon.

1235
01:03:40,920 --> 01:03:44,840
Speaker 1: But and by the way, my nightmare potentially coming true.

1236
01:03:45,480 --> 01:03:47,840
Speaker 1: This is gonna make me sick. You look at the

1237
01:03:47,840 --> 01:03:51,400
Speaker 1: ACC standings right now, Wake Forest the six and l

1238
01:03:51,440 --> 01:03:53,960
Speaker 1: Clemson is five and two. I don't know what happens

1239
01:03:54,000 --> 01:03:55,880
Speaker 1: with n C State and a tiebreaker, because then C

1240
01:03:56,000 --> 01:03:59,560
Speaker 1: State beat Clemson, and then Wake beat n C State

1241
01:03:59,640 --> 01:04:01,919
Speaker 1: and beat Wake. I don't know, but there's a chance

1242
01:04:01,960 --> 01:04:06,200
Speaker 1: that Clemson can win the ACC. Now they will need

1243
01:04:06,280 --> 01:04:09,120
Speaker 1: Wake to lose both games. WAC goes to BC to

1244
01:04:09,240 --> 01:04:11,800
Speaker 1: end the season with Djakovic back and need that game

1245
01:04:11,800 --> 01:04:15,439
Speaker 1: for their win total too. So Clemson wins this game,

1246
01:04:15,440 --> 01:04:18,840
Speaker 1: there's a good chance they're gonna win the ACC. I'm

1247
01:04:18,840 --> 01:04:21,640
Speaker 1: not ol go to the a SEC Championship game. That's

1248
01:04:21,680 --> 01:04:24,240
Speaker 1: gonna make me vomit. So wake better win this game.

1249
01:04:24,640 --> 01:04:26,360
Speaker 1: I still can't trust. I would not like points to

1250
01:04:26,400 --> 01:04:30,280
Speaker 1: this Clemson team anymore with their offense. Yeah, and there's

1251
01:04:30,280 --> 01:04:32,760
Speaker 1: a lot of variance in this game. I think I'm

1252
01:04:32,760 --> 01:04:36,760
Speaker 1: gonna trust Sam Harbin again, not bet them well, throw

1253
01:04:36,800 --> 01:04:38,640
Speaker 1: them in a little money line round Robin. I think

1254
01:04:38,640 --> 01:04:40,880
Speaker 1: that's my simple approach. Have you got anything here?

1255
01:04:41,480 --> 01:04:44,520
Speaker 3: I have the same sentiments because I don't want to

1256
01:04:44,560 --> 01:04:48,480
Speaker 3: back Clemson whatsoever. But the number on the board screams

1257
01:04:48,480 --> 01:04:51,520
Speaker 3: of Clemson is going to win this game. More importantly,

1258
01:04:51,720 --> 01:04:55,320
Speaker 3: I see an unbelievable amount of tickets and an unbelievable

1259
01:04:55,360 --> 01:04:57,919
Speaker 3: amount of money on Wake Forest, and that numbers still

1260
01:04:57,960 --> 01:04:59,480
Speaker 3: pop from three and a half up to four and

1261
01:04:59,520 --> 01:05:02,800
Speaker 3: a half. So tell me why all the money's coming

1262
01:05:02,840 --> 01:05:07,040
Speaker 3: in and this number is still moving in favor of

1263
01:05:07,080 --> 01:05:09,560
Speaker 3: Clemson and against wake Forest. That tells you that there's

1264
01:05:09,600 --> 01:05:11,960
Speaker 3: even you know, some some bigger bets that are respected

1265
01:05:12,000 --> 01:05:14,680
Speaker 3: that are backing Clemson here. And you know, if you

1266
01:05:14,680 --> 01:05:17,440
Speaker 3: look at recent opponents, both these teams barely beat Syracuse

1267
01:05:17,480 --> 01:05:20,520
Speaker 3: and Louisville. And the question is are there holes in

1268
01:05:20,560 --> 01:05:22,760
Speaker 3: this defense that Wake Forest can exploit because I mean,

1269
01:05:22,800 --> 01:05:25,880
Speaker 3: Yukon didn't have anything a success rate or explosive play department.

1270
01:05:26,440 --> 01:05:30,240
Speaker 3: And Pete the Pitt beat Clemson without having an explosive drive,

1271
01:05:30,760 --> 01:05:34,280
Speaker 3: but they tripled the national average in methodical drives that's

1272
01:05:34,320 --> 01:05:37,320
Speaker 3: possessions that go over ten yards. And they did it

1273
01:05:37,320 --> 01:05:40,360
Speaker 3: because of their short passing game. So you know, Louisville

1274
01:05:40,400 --> 01:05:42,600
Speaker 3: kept it close with Clemson thanks to an above average

1275
01:05:42,600 --> 01:05:45,640
Speaker 3: success in passing down Syracuse kept it close to Clemson

1276
01:05:46,320 --> 01:05:49,120
Speaker 3: because of their methodical drive average. And so you have

1277
01:05:49,160 --> 01:05:51,560
Speaker 3: to ask and Wake have long, extended drives with the

1278
01:05:51,600 --> 01:05:54,880
Speaker 3: short passing game of Sam Hartman. Turns out Wake Forest

1279
01:05:54,960 --> 01:05:58,320
Speaker 3: is twenty sixth in the nation in methodical drives. Twenty

1280
01:05:58,320 --> 01:06:01,520
Speaker 3: percent of their possessions have ten plus plays, so they

1281
01:06:01,560 --> 01:06:05,760
Speaker 3: have the formula that has troubled Clemson through acc play.

1282
01:06:07,200 --> 01:06:09,800
Speaker 3: The battle in finishing drives is huge. Clemson has allowed

1283
01:06:10,320 --> 01:06:15,160
Speaker 3: six touchdowns this season in twenty three opponent red zone attempts.

1284
01:06:16,000 --> 01:06:19,600
Speaker 3: Six touchdowns. That's it. Wake has scored on forty five

1285
01:06:19,600 --> 01:06:22,600
Speaker 3: and forty eight red zone attempts at seventy t rate.

1286
01:06:22,880 --> 01:06:25,520
Speaker 3: Something's got to give here, right, So if Wake gets

1287
01:06:25,520 --> 01:06:27,120
Speaker 3: into the red zone, that's going to be the watch

1288
01:06:27,160 --> 01:06:30,120
Speaker 3: of the day. I want to back Wake here too.

1289
01:06:31,160 --> 01:06:34,640
Speaker 3: I want to get in with the public. I want

1290
01:06:34,640 --> 01:06:37,720
Speaker 3: to swim with the fishes. I want to go against

1291
01:06:37,760 --> 01:06:40,480
Speaker 3: this heavy money that's making this Clemson line go up.

1292
01:06:41,000 --> 01:06:42,600
Speaker 1: I did it last week. It didn't deserve to win,

1293
01:06:42,640 --> 01:06:43,320
Speaker 1: but we got there.

1294
01:06:43,520 --> 01:06:43,760
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1295
01:06:44,520 --> 01:06:46,760
Speaker 3: I don't know just I say watch on the action app,

1296
01:06:46,800 --> 01:06:49,360
Speaker 3: But if you're a person that respects the market, it

1297
01:06:49,360 --> 01:06:50,960
Speaker 3: says Clemson's going to win this game in cover.

1298
01:06:51,680 --> 01:06:53,840
Speaker 1: This looks like the smelliest line on the board. All right.

1299
01:06:53,920 --> 01:06:57,360
Speaker 1: Last game of the rundown Wyoming at Utah State. UTA

1300
01:06:57,360 --> 01:07:00,480
Speaker 1: State remarkable turnaround from a program in disrated last year

1301
01:07:00,880 --> 01:07:03,520
Speaker 1: to now they're eight and two. Control their own destiny

1302
01:07:03,560 --> 01:07:05,600
Speaker 1: to win the division. They just have to win out.

1303
01:07:05,600 --> 01:07:09,280
Speaker 1: They played Wyoming at home and then New Mexico. Well,

1304
01:07:09,320 --> 01:07:13,000
Speaker 1: we did a deep dive on the paper tiger that

1305
01:07:13,080 --> 01:07:15,720
Speaker 1: is UTSA. Would you like to do a deep dive

1306
01:07:16,000 --> 01:07:19,360
Speaker 1: on Utah State? Are Utah State's eight and two this year,

1307
01:07:20,240 --> 01:07:24,200
Speaker 1: and let's take a look at who they have? They

1308
01:07:24,200 --> 01:07:28,440
Speaker 1: lost by double dig just a boise and who else? Byu?

1309
01:07:29,040 --> 01:07:31,840
Speaker 1: All right? They beat Washington State by three at Washington

1310
01:07:31,880 --> 01:07:35,560
Speaker 1: State could win. Well, Washington State started guarantano that game

1311
01:07:35,960 --> 01:07:39,840
Speaker 1: and Utah State was it was Week one. They were

1312
01:07:39,840 --> 01:07:41,760
Speaker 1: down twenty three to eleven with five minutes to go.

1313
01:07:42,160 --> 01:07:45,400
Speaker 1: They wanted on a touchdown in the final seconds. All right.

1314
01:07:45,440 --> 01:07:48,280
Speaker 1: They won at air Force. Well, they were down eleven

1315
01:07:48,600 --> 01:07:51,560
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter, they came back, won it on

1316
01:07:51,560 --> 01:07:53,760
Speaker 1: a late touchdown, and then Air Force fumbled in Utah

1317
01:07:53,800 --> 01:07:59,480
Speaker 1: State territory. Then the game decent wins really fluky, Well,

1318
01:07:59,480 --> 01:08:04,800
Speaker 1: we can keep going. They played UNLV and they scored

1319
01:08:04,840 --> 01:08:08,280
Speaker 1: a touchdown in the final seconds and one in a

1320
01:08:08,320 --> 01:08:11,360
Speaker 1: comeback in the fourth quarter, mainly because UNLB lost their

1321
01:08:11,360 --> 01:08:14,040
Speaker 1: starting quarterback who was their second string quarterback in that game.

1322
01:08:14,320 --> 01:08:15,600
Speaker 1: I think we have that in our money line round

1323
01:08:15,640 --> 01:08:18,040
Speaker 1: rowd and it should have hit. All right, another lucky win.

1324
01:08:18,479 --> 01:08:21,679
Speaker 1: Let's go to Colorado State at home. They were out

1325
01:08:21,680 --> 01:08:23,679
Speaker 1: game by more than one hundred yards and averaged two

1326
01:08:23,720 --> 01:08:28,000
Speaker 1: point one yards per play fewer. Utah State did win

1327
01:08:28,040 --> 01:08:30,479
Speaker 1: by two because Colorado State is to forty yard if

1328
01:08:30,479 --> 01:08:33,559
Speaker 1: you'll go to win it as time expired, I think

1329
01:08:33,560 --> 01:08:35,080
Speaker 1: you get the point. This team's played one of the

1330
01:08:35,080 --> 01:08:38,280
Speaker 1: softest schedules in the country. Here are they're wins Washington

1331
01:08:38,280 --> 01:08:43,240
Speaker 1: State by three, Luke North Dakota, that Fluky Air Force win, UNLV,

1332
01:08:43,479 --> 01:08:46,400
Speaker 1: Fluky win, Colorado State and FLUKI win. And they've been

1333
01:08:46,400 --> 01:08:49,160
Speaker 1: pretty good the last weeks, but against Hawaii, New Mexico

1334
01:08:49,280 --> 01:08:52,400
Speaker 1: State and San Jose State. This is one of the

1335
01:08:52,439 --> 01:08:57,680
Speaker 1: easiest schedules in the country. And when you look at

1336
01:08:57,680 --> 01:09:01,320
Speaker 1: this game, I think Utah State Dog have some vulnerabilities

1337
01:09:01,720 --> 01:09:04,760
Speaker 1: in their run defense. The metrics overall look pretty good,

1338
01:09:04,760 --> 01:09:06,000
Speaker 1: but look at some of the teams they played. If

1339
01:09:06,000 --> 01:09:10,120
Speaker 1: you isolate the competent rushing offenses that they've played, even

1340
01:09:10,240 --> 01:09:13,559
Speaker 1: UNLB gashed them. They've been gashed. And what does Utah

1341
01:09:13,600 --> 01:09:15,240
Speaker 1: State do on the offensive side of the ball. They

1342
01:09:15,240 --> 01:09:17,800
Speaker 1: can't run him and they're not going to run it here.

1343
01:09:18,080 --> 01:09:19,960
Speaker 1: Their offensive line is really bad and run blocking. They

1344
01:09:19,960 --> 01:09:22,599
Speaker 1: just throw it. Logan Bonner and a really good group

1345
01:09:22,640 --> 01:09:25,280
Speaker 1: of receivers, one of them I voted for the Blinmicoff.

1346
01:09:25,280 --> 01:09:28,439
Speaker 1: He's a semi finalist in Tompkins who's had a hell

1347
01:09:28,479 --> 01:09:31,439
Speaker 1: of a year. Well, what's Wyoming strength? Their past defense

1348
01:09:31,479 --> 01:09:34,120
Speaker 1: Top twenty pass efficiency defense is a really good pass

1349
01:09:34,200 --> 01:09:38,400
Speaker 1: d and this will be the best pass defensive faced

1350
01:09:38,400 --> 01:09:41,639
Speaker 1: all year. So I think Wyoming can match up here,

1351
01:09:42,160 --> 01:09:45,960
Speaker 1: and they're playing for Bowl eligibility. All the pressure is

1352
01:09:46,000 --> 01:09:48,880
Speaker 1: on Utah State. They've been running really well, like just

1353
01:09:49,000 --> 01:09:53,280
Speaker 1: extremely well in all these games that other shoes about

1354
01:09:53,280 --> 01:09:56,880
Speaker 1: the drop, and I think I make this game close

1355
01:09:56,920 --> 01:10:00,360
Speaker 1: to a pick. Yeah, as crazy as that sounds. So

1356
01:10:00,400 --> 01:10:03,479
Speaker 1: we're back to Wyoming and hopefully we don't need an

1357
01:10:03,520 --> 01:10:06,439
Speaker 1: eighty r touchdown in the final seconds, but if we

1358
01:10:06,479 --> 01:10:09,719
Speaker 1: do and get it again, it'll be fun. Go Pokes.

1359
01:10:10,200 --> 01:10:11,800
Speaker 1: I mean this is, by the way, By the way,

1360
01:10:11,920 --> 01:10:16,439
Speaker 1: elevation won't matter because well, I mean Logan's fot thousand feet,

1361
01:10:16,680 --> 01:10:19,040
Speaker 1: Wyoming plays in seven thousand fet and then they got

1362
01:10:19,040 --> 01:10:21,599
Speaker 1: an extra day of preparation inch.

1363
01:10:21,320 --> 01:10:25,880
Speaker 3: So it'll be a breatherer for Wyoming. This is the

1364
01:10:25,880 --> 01:10:28,960
Speaker 3: tough thing about when you make power ratings is that

1365
01:10:29,520 --> 01:10:32,519
Speaker 3: odds makers to me have been wrong on Wyoming two

1366
01:10:32,560 --> 01:10:34,080
Speaker 3: weeks in a row. I played them two weeks in

1367
01:10:34,120 --> 01:10:36,479
Speaker 3: a row. Big cash is in the app and in

1368
01:10:36,600 --> 01:10:39,040
Speaker 3: the nice little wallet here, and I just haven't been

1369
01:10:39,080 --> 01:10:41,439
Speaker 3: able to figure it out. Plus three against Colorado State,

1370
01:10:41,800 --> 01:10:44,719
Speaker 3: Wyoming wins by fourteen and has one hundred and twenty

1371
01:10:44,720 --> 01:10:46,840
Speaker 3: more total yards. So I don't know what that number

1372
01:10:47,000 --> 01:10:50,599
Speaker 3: was plus fourteen last week covered the entire game until

1373
01:10:50,600 --> 01:10:52,559
Speaker 3: a little bit of wonkiness in the last two minutes

1374
01:10:52,600 --> 01:10:56,080
Speaker 3: for the cover Utah State has covered. So when it

1375
01:10:56,080 --> 01:10:59,120
Speaker 3: comes to Wyoming, like I haven't adjusted my power ratings,

1376
01:11:00,280 --> 01:11:03,559
Speaker 3: like I have completely been on their side the last

1377
01:11:03,560 --> 01:11:04,880
Speaker 3: two weeks, and I have not been able to varrow

1378
01:11:04,920 --> 01:11:07,800
Speaker 3: what oddsmakers are doing, like Stuck, I think this should

1379
01:11:07,840 --> 01:11:09,479
Speaker 3: be a pick. It was one of my first plays

1380
01:11:09,520 --> 01:11:11,040
Speaker 3: that went in a half this week was Wyoming six

1381
01:11:11,080 --> 01:11:12,920
Speaker 3: and a half coming down to four and a half.

1382
01:11:13,000 --> 01:11:16,040
Speaker 3: In some places, Utah States covered four straight, but none

1383
01:11:16,080 --> 01:11:19,400
Speaker 3: of them have seen the secondary have the secondary of

1384
01:11:19,400 --> 01:11:23,280
Speaker 3: Wyoming fifth and coverage per PFF twentieth, in big play

1385
01:11:23,280 --> 01:11:26,519
Speaker 3: prevention thirty first, and passing success rate, And there is

1386
01:11:26,560 --> 01:11:29,640
Speaker 3: a huge discrepancy in finishing drives here that Aggie's are

1387
01:11:29,640 --> 01:11:32,360
Speaker 3: one hundredth on offense, the less yards they have to

1388
01:11:32,400 --> 01:11:35,320
Speaker 3: work with with all that passing from Logan Bonner, the

1389
01:11:35,520 --> 01:11:37,519
Speaker 3: least you know, the less amount of play calls that

1390
01:11:37,560 --> 01:11:40,360
Speaker 3: they have to get a score up. Wisconsin's top twenty

1391
01:11:40,400 --> 01:11:43,200
Speaker 3: in defense and finishing drives. But you have to ask,

1392
01:11:43,240 --> 01:11:46,599
Speaker 3: how does Wyoming score here? They just move the chain slowly.

1393
01:11:46,840 --> 01:11:49,200
Speaker 3: They didn't have any explosive runs on Boise last week,

1394
01:11:49,240 --> 01:11:53,439
Speaker 3: but they averaged four point nine per per rush. They

1395
01:11:53,439 --> 01:11:56,360
Speaker 3: were ten percent above national average and success rate. So

1396
01:11:56,600 --> 01:11:58,880
Speaker 3: I think the Cowboys are they going to get the

1397
01:11:58,960 --> 01:12:00,960
Speaker 3: upset here. And I think Craig Bowl, who's sitting on

1398
01:12:01,040 --> 01:12:02,519
Speaker 3: five wins, is gonna go bowling.

1399
01:12:03,560 --> 01:12:07,599
Speaker 1: Craig bowling baby. All right, that'll do it for the rundown.

1400
01:12:07,920 --> 01:12:14,120
Speaker 1: Before we get out of here, let's go three and out.

1401
01:12:14,439 --> 01:12:16,599
Speaker 3: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1402
01:12:17,520 --> 01:12:20,080
Speaker 1: All right, first down, Friday night lights.

1403
01:12:21,080 --> 01:12:25,360
Speaker 3: Let's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts. Let's go play

1404
01:12:25,400 --> 01:12:25,919
Speaker 3: some football.

1405
01:12:26,720 --> 01:12:30,040
Speaker 1: We have five games. The only one I care about,

1406
01:12:30,760 --> 01:12:33,120
Speaker 1: maybe you'll talk about San Diego State over against.

1407
01:12:32,880 --> 01:12:35,480
Speaker 4: Unlv AS Tech overs.

1408
01:12:35,760 --> 01:12:37,439
Speaker 1: The only one I care about is Air Force Nevada.

1409
01:12:37,960 --> 01:12:40,880
Speaker 1: I will be on Air Force fatom out a Batta

1410
01:12:40,920 --> 01:12:43,439
Speaker 1: boys here. I think that Air Force both these offenses

1411
01:12:43,439 --> 01:12:46,160
Speaker 1: should have success here. Air Force can't defend the pass

1412
01:12:46,160 --> 01:12:48,559
Speaker 1: when they when they face a really quotent passing attack.

1413
01:12:49,080 --> 01:12:52,760
Speaker 1: Their corners just aren't up to stuff. Nevada, as we know,

1414
01:12:52,800 --> 01:12:55,160
Speaker 1: can't defend the run. And I don't think they're gonna

1415
01:12:55,160 --> 01:12:57,680
Speaker 1: have any success defending the triple option. It puts me

1416
01:12:57,720 --> 01:12:59,640
Speaker 1: over the top. Here. We know the service. We know

1417
01:12:59,720 --> 01:13:01,880
Speaker 1: Service got to show up every week. We know air

1418
01:13:01,920 --> 01:13:03,720
Speaker 1: Force is going to show up. They're still playing for

1419
01:13:03,880 --> 01:13:06,760
Speaker 1: a division title. I'm not so sure Nevada shows up here.

1420
01:13:06,920 --> 01:13:09,000
Speaker 1: They already have seven wins. They lost a heartbreaker to

1421
01:13:09,040 --> 01:13:11,080
Speaker 1: San Diego State last week. That was for the division.

1422
01:13:11,240 --> 01:13:14,920
Speaker 1: They're basically playing for nothing now, so you know, I

1423
01:13:14,920 --> 01:13:18,439
Speaker 1: could see them being flat early, and you don't want

1424
01:13:18,439 --> 01:13:20,479
Speaker 1: to get behind against air Force. And when you're in

1425
01:13:20,520 --> 01:13:25,479
Speaker 1: a bad spot, bad situational spot on a short week,

1426
01:13:25,640 --> 01:13:27,360
Speaker 1: the last thing you want to do as a bad

1427
01:13:27,439 --> 01:13:29,799
Speaker 1: run defense is go out there and defend the triple

1428
01:13:29,800 --> 01:13:34,479
Speaker 1: option for an entire game. So yeah, I'm gonna be

1429
01:13:34,479 --> 01:13:37,160
Speaker 1: on air Force fading line Nevada boys. Hopefully Romeo Dubbs

1430
01:13:37,280 --> 01:13:39,720
Speaker 1: doesn't kill me. But I think air Force decide here.

1431
01:13:39,720 --> 01:13:41,720
Speaker 1: I don't mind me over too. I just think. But

1432
01:13:41,760 --> 01:13:44,280
Speaker 1: I am worried just it's Nevada no shows. It's the

1433
01:13:44,320 --> 01:13:45,479
Speaker 1: only thing I'm worried about. So I'm not sure if

1434
01:13:45,400 --> 01:13:47,880
Speaker 1: I'll pull the trigger there. But I like air Force

1435
01:13:47,880 --> 01:13:49,800
Speaker 1: plus one and a half. I'm just waiting to see

1436
01:13:49,800 --> 01:13:52,120
Speaker 1: if this line. I assume it's gonna be public money

1437
01:13:52,160 --> 01:13:54,960
Speaker 1: on Nevada, but I'm waiting to see if this line

1438
01:13:55,120 --> 01:13:56,519
Speaker 1: is going to move up or not before I pull

1439
01:13:56,560 --> 01:13:58,479
Speaker 1: the trigger. But I will be on air force anything

1440
01:13:58,520 --> 01:13:59,720
Speaker 1: interest you on Friday night.

1441
01:14:00,080 --> 01:14:02,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think San Diego State getting that win over Nevada.

1442
01:14:02,320 --> 01:14:05,600
Speaker 3: I'm not sure like you get this huge win for

1443
01:14:05,640 --> 01:14:07,439
Speaker 3: the conference and then you're going to take a trip

1444
01:14:07,479 --> 01:14:11,320
Speaker 3: to Las Vegas covering eleven it's covering ten and a half.

1445
01:14:11,400 --> 01:14:14,360
Speaker 3: That might be a little too steep for the Aztecs.

1446
01:14:14,680 --> 01:14:16,360
Speaker 3: Un LD's covered their last two in a row.

1447
01:14:17,120 --> 01:14:18,479
Speaker 1: By the way, I do need to decide they do

1448
01:14:18,640 --> 01:14:21,840
Speaker 1: still need to win. Yeah, if they lose, Fresno State's

1449
01:14:21,880 --> 01:14:24,559
Speaker 1: five and two right on their heels and Fresno State

1450
01:14:24,600 --> 01:14:29,040
Speaker 1: beat them, so they would have the tiebreaker, So keep

1451
01:14:29,040 --> 01:14:30,760
Speaker 1: that in mind. But yeah, I mean San Diego State

1452
01:14:30,920 --> 01:14:33,559
Speaker 1: covering double digits is sure.

1453
01:14:34,000 --> 01:14:36,559
Speaker 3: It's a dicey proposition there, so I would definitely be

1454
01:14:37,200 --> 01:14:39,280
Speaker 3: looking into that. And then when I put into the app,

1455
01:14:39,600 --> 01:14:43,640
Speaker 3: I did take Washington State at home. They well, that

1456
01:14:43,680 --> 01:14:45,880
Speaker 3: covered last week was one of the more amazing things

1457
01:14:45,880 --> 01:14:49,040
Speaker 3: I've ever seen. But this is an Arizona team that

1458
01:14:49,360 --> 01:14:51,040
Speaker 3: you know, I mean, they're they're playing, they got their

1459
01:14:51,040 --> 01:14:54,600
Speaker 3: first win, they're covering games. But now they're going to

1460
01:14:54,680 --> 01:14:57,759
Speaker 3: go up to Pullman and you know that's below forty

1461
01:14:57,760 --> 01:15:00,920
Speaker 3: degrees rain and wind its airs Zona on the road.

1462
01:15:02,080 --> 01:15:05,160
Speaker 3: You know they're next to dead last in coverage and

1463
01:15:05,240 --> 01:15:09,360
Speaker 3: offensive finishing drives, and you know that's not an easy

1464
01:15:09,360 --> 01:15:11,800
Speaker 3: place to play, especially when you're from Tucson, Arizona and

1465
01:15:11,800 --> 01:15:14,360
Speaker 3: you haven't seen weather like this before. So I think

1466
01:15:14,439 --> 01:15:17,320
Speaker 3: Washington State, who is still playing extremely well and covering

1467
01:15:17,320 --> 01:15:21,320
Speaker 3: games for an interim coach. Especially they've been putting up

1468
01:15:21,360 --> 01:15:23,920
Speaker 3: over one hundred yards rushing with Max Borgie. That's going

1469
01:15:23,960 --> 01:15:26,360
Speaker 3: to be a problem for Arizona. So I do like

1470
01:15:26,479 --> 01:15:29,280
Speaker 3: Washington State. If you have the chance, like if you

1471
01:15:29,320 --> 01:15:31,000
Speaker 3: have a fourteen and a half and you have minus

1472
01:15:31,000 --> 01:15:32,599
Speaker 3: one ten and you can get a hook for minus

1473
01:15:32,600 --> 01:15:35,080
Speaker 3: one twenty, I would suggest that it looks like it's

1474
01:15:35,120 --> 01:15:36,880
Speaker 3: going to take some steam and probably close a little

1475
01:15:36,920 --> 01:15:38,639
Speaker 3: bit higher. But I do like Washington State.

1476
01:15:41,160 --> 01:15:44,120
Speaker 1: Goltec for a wind tootal. The two wins should get them.

1477
01:15:44,160 --> 01:15:47,559
Speaker 1: Hopefully they don't, and they played down the competition. Southern

1478
01:15:47,560 --> 01:15:49,840
Speaker 1: miss I assume is gonna running wildcat again with Frank

1479
01:15:49,960 --> 01:15:52,479
Speaker 1: or Jr. Is that the plan.

1480
01:15:53,560 --> 01:15:56,360
Speaker 3: Worked against the team you hate UTSA.

1481
01:15:56,080 --> 01:16:02,120
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, Arizona, Yeah, Arizona, Watch State Memphis Houston. I

1482
01:16:02,120 --> 01:16:05,680
Speaker 1: think is about right? And what else was gonna say? Oh,

1483
01:16:05,680 --> 01:16:06,720
Speaker 1: by the way, the one thing that does scare me

1484
01:16:06,800 --> 01:16:08,760
Speaker 1: that NLV game is field position. You know, he's one

1485
01:16:08,760 --> 01:16:12,759
Speaker 1: of the worst field position teams in the entire country.

1486
01:16:12,800 --> 01:16:15,080
Speaker 1: Something to keep in mind for another game that I mentioned,

1487
01:16:15,120 --> 01:16:18,280
Speaker 1: Akron Kent State. I'm just gonna I think I'm just

1488
01:16:18,320 --> 01:16:21,360
Speaker 1: gonna keep playing Kent State overs. The market doesn't adjust them.

1489
01:16:21,360 --> 01:16:24,679
Speaker 1: That they scored in like two minutes multiple times a game.

1490
01:16:24,800 --> 01:16:27,200
Speaker 1: The market knows that, and they should do that.

1491
01:16:27,280 --> 01:16:29,559
Speaker 3: At will, and Gibson's gonna be and then they.

1492
01:16:31,560 --> 01:16:33,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Gibson's playing so well. But the problem is

1493
01:16:33,840 --> 01:16:35,280
Speaker 1: when Kent State scores, and they did it all the time,

1494
01:16:35,320 --> 01:16:37,040
Speaker 1: they kick it off. They can't kick it off. Their

1495
01:16:37,360 --> 01:16:40,000
Speaker 1: kicker can't get to the twenty five. So every the

1496
01:16:40,040 --> 01:16:42,479
Speaker 1: team start at the forty yard line. Every time somethimes

1497
01:16:42,479 --> 01:16:45,840
Speaker 1: in midfield, So I mean, it's ridiculous they score them.

1498
01:16:45,840 --> 01:16:47,719
Speaker 1: The team starts at midfield. So I might be playing

1499
01:16:47,720 --> 01:16:49,960
Speaker 1: the over again. The only concern there is Kent State.

1500
01:16:50,479 --> 01:16:53,519
Speaker 1: They are playing for a ball at least, but if

1501
01:16:53,520 --> 01:16:56,519
Speaker 1: they go up big usually they keep their foot on

1502
01:16:56,560 --> 01:16:59,160
Speaker 1: the pedal. But they they play for the division. Next

1503
01:16:59,160 --> 01:17:01,320
Speaker 1: week it's Miami, so that they just say we got

1504
01:17:01,400 --> 01:17:03,160
Speaker 1: to stay healthy because that's for the division. I don't know.

1505
01:17:03,160 --> 01:17:04,960
Speaker 1: That's my only concern maybe at first ever, but these

1506
01:17:05,320 --> 01:17:08,519
Speaker 1: can't stay overs are awesome because they their numbers are

1507
01:17:08,560 --> 01:17:10,360
Speaker 1: so high, and I don't think they're high enough. But yeah,

1508
01:17:10,439 --> 01:17:12,360
Speaker 1: UNLV is so bad if your positioned, and then obviously

1509
01:17:12,400 --> 01:17:14,720
Speaker 1: San Diego State has the punt god. Let's move on

1510
01:17:14,760 --> 01:17:20,360
Speaker 1: to second down. Let's talk our underdog moneyline parlay and

1511
01:17:20,400 --> 01:17:22,760
Speaker 1: our favorite overdog for those new overdogs, our favorite favor

1512
01:17:23,840 --> 01:17:25,760
Speaker 1: I'll start here. By the way, we can get red

1513
01:17:25,760 --> 01:17:29,160
Speaker 1: hot with these underdogs, but we're zero in three on

1514
01:17:29,200 --> 01:17:33,080
Speaker 1: the AAR and overtime sadly and Tulane, which was my

1515
01:17:33,160 --> 01:17:35,080
Speaker 1: best bet on our show plus three, and then you

1516
01:17:35,080 --> 01:17:37,759
Speaker 1: have the money line can't make a twenty five yarder

1517
01:17:38,600 --> 01:17:40,840
Speaker 1: to win and then obviously lose an overtime that was

1518
01:17:40,840 --> 01:17:43,120
Speaker 1: a frustrating one. Yeah, and the night Florida State, which

1519
01:17:43,120 --> 01:17:45,840
Speaker 1: came through. Thank you, Jordan Travis. All right, So for

1520
01:17:45,920 --> 01:17:49,840
Speaker 1: me favorite overdog already talked about it. OHI state, let's

1521
01:17:49,840 --> 01:17:52,360
Speaker 1: just avoid the back door. We haven't been getting back doors.

1522
01:17:52,360 --> 01:17:54,200
Speaker 1: So if we don't get back door here, I think

1523
01:17:54,200 --> 01:17:56,760
Speaker 1: they should just score it will whenever they want. C. J.

1524
01:17:56,840 --> 01:17:59,800
Speaker 1: Stroud Heisman game might want to run this s uff

1525
01:18:00,000 --> 01:18:02,280
Speaker 1: don't see anyway Misi can say can stop them, and

1526
01:18:02,920 --> 01:18:05,040
Speaker 1: Michigan said his injuries on the offensive side of the ball.

1527
01:18:05,479 --> 01:18:08,320
Speaker 1: I hope they try to run it. Strength of defense

1528
01:18:08,439 --> 01:18:11,280
Speaker 1: is their run defense, which matches up well with Kenneth

1529
01:18:11,280 --> 01:18:19,760
Speaker 1: Walker turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

1530
01:18:19,880 --> 01:18:24,040
Speaker 1: the money line parlay for my underdog money on Plavy.

1531
01:18:24,040 --> 01:18:27,920
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go with Navy money line against East Carolina.

1532
01:18:28,320 --> 01:18:34,400
Speaker 1: This is a fantastic spot to fade East Carolina. Navy's

1533
01:18:34,400 --> 01:18:36,280
Speaker 1: coming off bye, by the way, and you know they're

1534
01:18:36,280 --> 01:18:39,160
Speaker 1: always gonna show up East Carolina. Mean, while it's coming

1535
01:18:39,160 --> 01:18:42,719
Speaker 1: off an overtime win against Memphis, they got bo eligible

1536
01:18:42,720 --> 01:18:45,360
Speaker 1: for the first time its twenty fourteen. They celebrated like

1537
01:18:45,439 --> 01:18:46,920
Speaker 1: they won the Super Bowl in the locker room. I

1538
01:18:46,920 --> 01:18:48,519
Speaker 1: have a video of it in my article. That's gonna

1539
01:18:48,560 --> 01:18:51,760
Speaker 1: fun in this game. And they're going bowligible and on

1540
01:18:51,800 --> 01:18:55,719
Speaker 1: Friday they host Cincinnati, could end their season in college

1541
01:18:55,720 --> 01:18:59,519
Speaker 1: football hopes playoff hopes, which are damn anyway. But this

1542
01:18:59,640 --> 01:19:03,120
Speaker 1: is a huge sandwich spot and they're already Bowl eligible.

1543
01:19:03,680 --> 01:19:06,960
Speaker 1: And their run defense has holes that's not good against Navy,

1544
01:19:07,920 --> 01:19:12,120
Speaker 1: and Navy's playing better of late, and they cover for

1545
01:19:12,160 --> 01:19:14,360
Speaker 1: me whenever I met them outside of that Notre Dame game,

1546
01:19:15,400 --> 01:19:19,240
Speaker 1: really competitive scores. They've also had a really tough schedule.

1547
01:19:19,640 --> 01:19:22,800
Speaker 1: Look at Navy's schedule and you want to pick apart

1548
01:19:22,840 --> 01:19:27,920
Speaker 1: another resume, let's pick apart your Holton Aylers, six and

1549
01:19:28,080 --> 01:19:35,680
Speaker 1: four ECU boys. All right, So let's see who are

1550
01:19:35,680 --> 01:19:37,680
Speaker 1: their good wins? For easy? They have six wins. How

1551
01:19:37,720 --> 01:19:40,320
Speaker 1: they beat Marshall. It's a great win. Oh wait, they

1552
01:19:40,320 --> 01:19:42,160
Speaker 1: were down thirty eight to twenty one with six to

1553
01:19:42,200 --> 01:19:46,519
Speaker 1: go in the fourth quarter and scored three touchdowns if

1554
01:19:46,560 --> 01:19:50,479
Speaker 1: they're on sidekicks and Marshall missed field goal and turnover

1555
01:19:50,560 --> 01:19:53,840
Speaker 1: and downs to end the game. All right, So that

1556
01:19:54,000 --> 01:19:56,840
Speaker 1: was a complete fluke, probably the flukest win of the year.

1557
01:19:57,439 --> 01:20:01,000
Speaker 1: Here are the other EASCU wins. Charleston s Chuck Southern

1558
01:20:01,040 --> 01:20:05,519
Speaker 1: by three at home. The Ikes two lane one win,

1559
01:20:05,600 --> 01:20:13,599
Speaker 1: two lane USF to win USF Temple. This is poverty

1560
01:20:14,080 --> 01:20:20,160
Speaker 1: and Memphis by one in overtime. So I mean, one

1561
01:20:20,200 --> 01:20:24,519
Speaker 1: of the worst strength of records in entire college football

1562
01:20:24,520 --> 01:20:27,400
Speaker 1: when you consider the Marshall wins. The Flucist in the

1563
01:20:27,520 --> 01:20:29,920
Speaker 1: entire country, maybe, by the way, is a top twenty

1564
01:20:29,920 --> 01:20:33,760
Speaker 1: five strength of schedule, and I think this is a

1565
01:20:33,760 --> 01:20:36,000
Speaker 1: good matchup for them, and I think they're going to

1566
01:20:36,080 --> 01:20:39,000
Speaker 1: get the six straight win of RECU. So give me

1567
01:20:39,040 --> 01:20:42,400
Speaker 1: the Mids as the mind moneyline underdog piece.

1568
01:20:42,520 --> 01:20:44,640
Speaker 3: What do you got well for overdog, I'm gonna go

1569
01:20:44,680 --> 01:20:47,960
Speaker 3: with North Texas Settler Treill has to win this game

1570
01:20:48,000 --> 01:20:50,040
Speaker 3: and then he has to beat UTSA next week, not

1571
01:20:50,160 --> 01:20:53,080
Speaker 3: just to get the bowl season, but to save his job.

1572
01:20:53,600 --> 01:20:56,280
Speaker 3: And what's going on with Florida International and Butch Davis

1573
01:20:56,360 --> 01:20:57,560
Speaker 3: is just unbelievable.

1574
01:20:57,560 --> 01:20:59,280
Speaker 1: After messy.

1575
01:20:59,479 --> 01:21:03,040
Speaker 3: That report very detailed. Go go and check that out

1576
01:21:03,080 --> 01:21:05,080
Speaker 3: if you haven't read what's going on at Florida International.

1577
01:21:05,160 --> 01:21:08,400
Speaker 3: But you know, North Texas has been a covering machine

1578
01:21:08,520 --> 01:21:11,960
Speaker 3: the past three games against UTEP, Southern Miss Rice and

1579
01:21:12,200 --> 01:21:16,720
Speaker 3: also against Liberty FIU plus ten and a half. You know,

1580
01:21:16,760 --> 01:21:19,920
Speaker 3: they lost to Middle Tennessee despite getting four turnovers in

1581
01:21:19,960 --> 01:21:23,320
Speaker 3: that game, they lost by forty. I mean a couple

1582
01:21:23,360 --> 01:21:25,320
Speaker 3: of weeks ago, the Panthers were plus two and turnovers

1583
01:21:25,320 --> 01:21:28,680
Speaker 3: and didn't score a point against Marshall. So they've been

1584
01:21:28,760 --> 01:21:31,720
Speaker 3: given the ball, they've had great turnover luck and they

1585
01:21:31,760 --> 01:21:33,840
Speaker 3: still can't score points and it can't even get close

1586
01:21:33,880 --> 01:21:36,720
Speaker 3: to covering. So North Texas to keep putting it on

1587
01:21:36,800 --> 01:21:39,040
Speaker 3: teams this week. We'll see what they can do against

1588
01:21:39,120 --> 01:21:43,320
Speaker 3: Utsa next week. For the underdog money line, I'm gonna

1589
01:21:43,320 --> 01:21:46,200
Speaker 3: go with Florida Atlantic now, I mean, I've been taking

1590
01:21:46,200 --> 01:21:49,000
Speaker 3: these teams that are plus three, plus five. I wanted

1591
01:21:49,000 --> 01:21:50,679
Speaker 3: to get a double digit one in here this week.

1592
01:21:51,160 --> 01:21:53,960
Speaker 3: And you know, for me, I understand there's the argument

1593
01:21:53,960 --> 01:21:55,960
Speaker 3: that this game doesn't matter to Western Kentucky. But this

1594
01:21:56,000 --> 01:21:59,280
Speaker 3: game might ultimately not matter to Western Kentucky because they're

1595
01:21:59,280 --> 01:22:03,160
Speaker 3: gonna play marsh to win the division next week after Thanksgiving,

1596
01:22:03,760 --> 01:22:05,879
Speaker 3: so that's when the division is going to be decided.

1597
01:22:05,920 --> 01:22:09,120
Speaker 3: Florida Atlantic, they have the goods in the secondary to

1598
01:22:09,200 --> 01:22:11,000
Speaker 3: at least keep up with Bailey Zappy, a guy that

1599
01:22:11,080 --> 01:22:13,519
Speaker 3: we love so much. They're seventh in FBS in coverage

1600
01:22:13,520 --> 01:22:16,400
Speaker 3: grading their top twenty five and defensive success rate, and

1601
01:22:16,439 --> 01:22:20,080
Speaker 3: tenth in defensive finishing drives. All those are needed against

1602
01:22:20,120 --> 01:22:24,000
Speaker 3: this Hilltoppers express. If you didn't know, Willie Taggart's alma

1603
01:22:24,080 --> 01:22:28,000
Speaker 3: mater is Western Kentucky, so coaches up for this game.

1604
01:22:28,360 --> 01:22:30,040
Speaker 3: It should be a huge game for Johnny Ford on

1605
01:22:30,040 --> 01:22:32,639
Speaker 3: the ground against the Western Kentucky defense that is really

1606
01:22:32,720 --> 01:22:36,040
Speaker 3: poor against the rush. Give me the owls. Hopefully I

1607
01:22:36,080 --> 01:22:39,200
Speaker 3: can get my favorite jiff out on Twitter, the turning

1608
01:22:39,200 --> 01:22:40,760
Speaker 3: owl head. I haven't had that one out in a while.

1609
01:22:41,240 --> 01:22:43,719
Speaker 1: Yeah. The argument against that is that they play at three.

1610
01:22:44,160 --> 01:22:47,559
Speaker 1: They play at noon, Marshall plays at three thirty. It

1611
01:22:47,640 --> 01:22:49,760
Speaker 1: is still late. I could see them a noon kick

1612
01:22:49,840 --> 01:22:51,640
Speaker 1: and it's like, you're probably's probably gonna come down the

1613
01:22:51,680 --> 01:22:53,519
Speaker 1: next week. But if they were to win and then

1614
01:22:53,560 --> 01:22:56,400
Speaker 1: Marshall lost to Charlotte probably not likely, then they would

1615
01:22:56,479 --> 01:23:01,960
Speaker 1: win the division. But I don't hate the angle. Also,

1616
01:23:02,000 --> 01:23:04,720
Speaker 1: by the way, a game I didn't mention that I like,

1617
01:23:04,800 --> 01:23:07,800
Speaker 1: especially if you get under three is I don't love

1618
01:23:07,800 --> 01:23:10,080
Speaker 1: the number. But West Virginia at home against Texas, I

1619
01:23:10,080 --> 01:23:13,719
Speaker 1: think Texas is done. They're toast after losing to Kansas

1620
01:23:13,720 --> 01:23:17,240
Speaker 1: and West Virginia is still playing for bo eligibility, Texas

1621
01:23:17,280 --> 01:23:20,000
Speaker 1: now will be without their top corner Bjon Robinson's done

1622
01:23:20,000 --> 01:23:24,479
Speaker 1: for the year. I think West Virginia gets that win.

1623
01:23:25,360 --> 01:23:27,360
Speaker 1: If Texas shows up, I'll be I mean, it's just

1624
01:23:27,360 --> 01:23:30,080
Speaker 1: like a circus act right now, everything that's going on

1625
01:23:30,160 --> 01:23:35,920
Speaker 1: there with monkeys, yeah, yeah, with monkeys in poul assassins.

1626
01:23:35,960 --> 01:23:37,200
Speaker 1: All right, Before we get out of here, we have

1627
01:23:37,320 --> 01:23:41,040
Speaker 1: one final task and that's our favorite bet of the weekend.

1628
01:23:42,120 --> 01:23:44,840
Speaker 1: For me, I'm going with that one. You don't agree

1629
01:23:44,840 --> 01:23:46,840
Speaker 1: with me, It's the game we talked about earlier. I'm

1630
01:23:47,080 --> 01:23:51,840
Speaker 1: going with UAB plus four and a half against UTSA

1631
01:23:52,400 --> 01:23:56,000
Speaker 1: in the Alamodome. I think this UTSA team as their

1632
01:23:56,040 --> 01:23:57,720
Speaker 1: ten and oh yes, they ranked twenty second of the

1633
01:23:57,720 --> 01:24:00,519
Speaker 1: coach wol plup a little bit of the paper tiger, right,

1634
01:24:00,560 --> 01:24:04,040
Speaker 1: they had two really flukey wins and the rest of

1635
01:24:04,080 --> 01:24:08,920
Speaker 1: their resume. Go take a look. It is disgusting. I

1636
01:24:08,960 --> 01:24:12,479
Speaker 1: think the biggest difference in this game is the weakest

1637
01:24:12,560 --> 01:24:18,120
Speaker 1: unit on either team, and that is the UTSA pass defense,

1638
01:24:18,400 --> 01:24:22,040
Speaker 1: which ranks outside the top of ninety in past success rate.

1639
01:24:22,280 --> 01:24:27,240
Speaker 1: That's something Dylan Hopkins can exploit This UAB defense is excellent,

1640
01:24:27,640 --> 01:24:31,920
Speaker 1: whereas overall the UTSA defense grades out about average. I

1641
01:24:31,960 --> 01:24:34,639
Speaker 1: think the UTSA will get enough stops here. I make

1642
01:24:34,640 --> 01:24:39,040
Speaker 1: this game closer to a pick. I think UAB and

1643
01:24:39,280 --> 01:24:44,960
Speaker 1: goes into the Alamodoome, ends utsa's perfect season and clinches

1644
01:24:45,000 --> 01:24:49,960
Speaker 1: the division. Give me the Blazers and your boy Bill Clark.

1645
01:24:52,680 --> 01:24:55,320
Speaker 3: So hard to pick between our two favorite G five teams.

1646
01:24:55,400 --> 01:24:57,960
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with my favorite bed being Kansas State.

1647
01:24:58,360 --> 01:25:01,000
Speaker 3: We both talked about it before early the podcast. This

1648
01:25:01,120 --> 01:25:04,240
Speaker 3: is a classic spot where Baylor just got done beating OU.

1649
01:25:04,360 --> 01:25:06,439
Speaker 3: Now they're going to go out on the road, and

1650
01:25:06,479 --> 01:25:08,679
Speaker 3: you give David Randa a lot of credit for confusing

1651
01:25:08,720 --> 01:25:11,280
Speaker 3: Lincoln Riley, but you know it limited o you to

1652
01:25:11,320 --> 01:25:13,360
Speaker 3: one hundred and eighty two passing yards and under eighty

1653
01:25:13,439 --> 01:25:16,120
Speaker 3: yards on the ground. But this is not the same

1654
01:25:16,200 --> 01:25:18,760
Speaker 3: team outside of Waco. They've covered one game on the

1655
01:25:18,840 --> 01:25:21,479
Speaker 3: road this season. Kansas State's on a roll right now.

1656
01:25:21,479 --> 01:25:23,960
Speaker 3: They've won four in a row. They haven't not covered

1657
01:25:23,960 --> 01:25:27,200
Speaker 3: a game since October sixteenth against Iowa State. And it's

1658
01:25:27,240 --> 01:25:30,960
Speaker 3: really the health of Skyler Thompson and Ducevaughn. It dictates

1659
01:25:31,000 --> 01:25:33,439
Speaker 3: when the explosive play is there. Right now, those two

1660
01:25:33,439 --> 01:25:36,120
Speaker 3: guys are healthy, the explosive play is going to be there.

1661
01:25:36,360 --> 01:25:38,680
Speaker 3: And Baylor's eighty fourth in the nation on defense and

1662
01:25:38,760 --> 01:25:41,960
Speaker 3: preventing the big play. So I you know, the Bears

1663
01:25:41,960 --> 01:25:44,400
Speaker 3: are one hundred and fourth and defending both standard and

1664
01:25:44,600 --> 01:25:48,639
Speaker 3: passing down's explosiveness, which means at any time Skyler Thompson

1665
01:25:48,680 --> 01:25:50,200
Speaker 3: and Ducevawn are going to be able to take it

1666
01:25:50,240 --> 01:25:52,559
Speaker 3: to the house. This is a revenge game for coach

1667
01:25:52,560 --> 01:25:55,120
Speaker 3: Climbing against David Randa where he lost by one point

1668
01:25:55,200 --> 01:25:58,160
Speaker 3: last year down on Waco. Now they come to Manhattan.

1669
01:25:58,800 --> 01:26:02,000
Speaker 3: This is a great spot for Kansas State to get

1670
01:26:02,040 --> 01:26:05,080
Speaker 3: some revenge from last year and put up some explosive plays.

1671
01:26:05,240 --> 01:26:08,280
Speaker 3: So go Wildcats, Kansas State with the win of the week.

1672
01:26:09,080 --> 01:26:10,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree every time by Allies are a

1673
01:26:10,960 --> 01:26:14,400
Speaker 1: big win. This year they have laid an egg the

1674
01:26:14,439 --> 01:26:17,639
Speaker 1: following week. I agree with you on Kansas State. All right,

1675
01:26:17,640 --> 01:26:20,439
Speaker 1: that'll do it for us. Thank you Colin as always

1676
01:26:20,760 --> 01:26:23,120
Speaker 1: for joining me. Thank you all for listening. Make sure

1677
01:26:23,120 --> 01:26:26,679
Speaker 1: you subscribe on subscribe subscribe, leave a review, five star review.

1678
01:26:27,560 --> 01:26:29,559
Speaker 1: Whatuld you like about the show, or if you want

1679
01:26:29,560 --> 01:26:32,840
Speaker 1: to just say something nice or not nice, you're more

1680
01:26:32,840 --> 01:26:35,160
Speaker 1: than welcome to do. We'll send you out some gear

1681
01:26:35,200 --> 01:26:37,400
Speaker 1: on a recap episode which will come out Monday, and

1682
01:26:37,439 --> 01:26:40,000
Speaker 1: as I mentioned before, we will have our Group of

1683
01:26:40,040 --> 01:26:42,720
Speaker 1: Five episode. Make sure you check those guys out, they've

1684
01:26:42,720 --> 01:26:44,240
Speaker 1: been killing it. That goes out for all the Group

1685
01:26:44,280 --> 01:26:47,240
Speaker 1: of five games that comes out Tuesday. Colin and I

1686
01:26:47,640 --> 01:26:51,519
Speaker 1: will do our Week thirteen preview early next week, so

1687
01:26:51,560 --> 01:26:54,360
Speaker 1: that's out by Wednesday, ahead of the holiday, ahead of

1688
01:26:54,360 --> 01:26:57,200
Speaker 1: all the games on Thursday and Friday. Appreciate you all listening.

1689
01:26:57,640 --> 01:27:00,679
Speaker 1: Let's get red hot, let's win some over time time games.

1690
01:27:01,000 --> 01:27:03,840
Speaker 1: Let's go streaking. Thanks as always, Fosting, Tell, Friend, Tell,

1691
01:27:03,840 --> 01:27:05,840
Speaker 1: and Nime. You appreciate your support. Don't forget about the

1692
01:27:05,880 --> 01:27:09,720
Speaker 1: voicemail as well. Nine Bad Eat. We'll catch you on

1693
01:27:09,760 --> 01:27:13,080
Speaker 1: a You can find us on Twitter all weekend and

1694
01:27:13,200 --> 01:27:16,400
Speaker 1: as always on the Action Network. At it's time for

1695
01:27:16,479 --> 01:27:19,720
Speaker 1: us to go find some last minute winners and as

1696
01:27:19,720 --> 01:27:22,280
Speaker 1: always you'll find them on the Action Network AP. We'll

1697
01:27:22,280 --> 01:27:22,880
Speaker 1: catch you all later.

1698
01:27:23,080 --> 01:27:24,240
Speaker 3: Cheers, peace out,