WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 28, 2024 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:06.800 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:11.680 --> 0:00:15.480 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:18.720 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hortern. Join us each day 0:00:18.760 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:24.880 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.960 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.319 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.960 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:37.279 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Any if you had 0:00:37.280 --> 0:00:39.440 any research rights in the data since the last meeting 0:00:39.440 --> 0:00:42.159 of the FMC suggests the fifty basis point cut that 0:00:42.159 --> 0:00:45.199 occurred was probably too much too soon. That raises the 0:00:45.240 --> 0:00:48.400 risk the price inflation might stop moderating and the stock 0:00:48.440 --> 0:00:52.120 prices might continue to melt up. Joined us now for 0:00:52.200 --> 0:00:54.320 more ed Welcome to the program sir. Let's start with 0:00:54.320 --> 0:00:56.959 the stock market. Are you calling this a melt up? 0:00:58.240 --> 0:01:00.480 I think it has been a bit of a melt up. 0:01:00.480 --> 0:01:04.160 I mean, look, we're looking at valuation multiples that are 0:01:04.200 --> 0:01:07.000 getting right up there close to where we were right 0:01:07.040 --> 0:01:10.360 before the tech wreck in the late nineteen nineties, we 0:01:10.400 --> 0:01:13.319 saw a melt up that got the forward pe s 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:16.160 and P five hundred up to twenty five. Now we're 0:01:16.160 --> 0:01:19.680 at twenty two, so it's starting to look like it ed. 0:01:19.720 --> 0:01:22.400 We're seeing bond yields back up as well again this morning, 0:01:22.400 --> 0:01:24.840 by two basis points of four to twenty six. Can 0:01:24.840 --> 0:01:27.320 we sort of fold the election into this conversation as well? 0:01:27.440 --> 0:01:29.880 Do you think the election and the GOP suite potentially 0:01:30.319 --> 0:01:32.560 would open the way to a move back towards five 0:01:32.560 --> 0:01:36.000 percent on a ten year Unfortunately. 0:01:35.400 --> 0:01:39.080 It is a conceivable scenario that the bond vigilantes are 0:01:39.560 --> 0:01:43.280 are definitely mounting up. I mean, the low bond yield 0:01:43.760 --> 0:01:47.000 last a few weeks ago was three point sixty five percent, 0:01:47.480 --> 0:01:49.800 and now we're at four point two six percent. I 0:01:49.840 --> 0:01:53.120 think over night we got the four point four point 0:01:53.160 --> 0:01:58.120 eight four point two eight five percent. So yeah, I 0:01:58.120 --> 0:02:00.560 think there's a possibility here that if we get a 0:02:00.640 --> 0:02:04.320 sweep either the Democrats or the Republicans, the bond market 0:02:04.360 --> 0:02:09.639 will conclude that nothing will stop either party from spending 0:02:10.360 --> 0:02:13.359 a lot, maybe cutting taxes a lot for some folks, 0:02:13.400 --> 0:02:16.600 not for others, and all in all, continuing to widen 0:02:16.600 --> 0:02:19.760 the deficit and the debt. Meanwhile, the interest payments continue 0:02:20.000 --> 0:02:23.600 to accumulate, and we'll probably hit a trillion dollars, which 0:02:23.639 --> 0:02:26.000 will make lots of headlines within the next few months. 0:02:26.200 --> 0:02:28.800 And I have to say it's very compelling arguments. Me 0:02:28.919 --> 0:02:30.680 and I worry about the deficit, and I watch the 0:02:30.680 --> 0:02:33.680 bond auctions and I see the increasing size. And last 0:02:33.720 --> 0:02:35.480 week I was in Washington, d C. With all of 0:02:35.520 --> 0:02:39.320 these international central bankers, and these international bankers, and where 0:02:39.320 --> 0:02:41.200 do all of their clients want to put their money? 0:02:41.560 --> 0:02:44.000 Even with all these concerns, talking with the US election, 0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:47.079 the deficit, the United States, they still want to come here. 0:02:47.120 --> 0:02:50.000 So what is going to make people say, no, Moss, 0:02:50.240 --> 0:02:50.760 we're done. 0:02:52.080 --> 0:02:54.760 Well, that's a good point. I mean, the reality is 0:02:54.800 --> 0:02:58.000 that the dollars actually strengthened at the same time as 0:02:58.000 --> 0:03:01.320 the bond deal has gone up. So that's suggests that 0:03:01.520 --> 0:03:03.560 there are people that are concluding that if the Fed, 0:03:04.160 --> 0:03:06.280 if the bond vigilantis are getting the message out to 0:03:06.320 --> 0:03:09.600 the Fed that they don't want any more rate cuts, 0:03:10.040 --> 0:03:13.880 that they think it was premature. That strengthens the dollar, 0:03:13.919 --> 0:03:16.880 which means that people are buying these bonds. So I 0:03:16.919 --> 0:03:21.960 wouldn't get too excited about the bond you'll going up 0:03:22.240 --> 0:03:25.320 to five percent, But it's certainly looking more realistic than 0:03:25.320 --> 0:03:27.000 it did a few weeks ago. And a few weeks 0:03:27.040 --> 0:03:32.520 ago we thought that the Fed that the cut prematurely, 0:03:33.240 --> 0:03:35.800 that the economy was going to surprise them to the upside, 0:03:35.840 --> 0:03:37.400 and that's exactly what's happened. 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:39.720 There's also been a contradiction here. People used to think 0:03:39.760 --> 0:03:42.760 that higher bond yields would XCISEE a pretty big tax 0:03:43.120 --> 0:03:46.160 on equity valuations. What we've seen is this melts up 0:03:46.200 --> 0:03:48.960 continuing despite the melt up in yields. Yes, what we 0:03:49.040 --> 0:03:51.720 have seen though, is a change with that rotation being 0:03:51.840 --> 0:03:54.240 challenged to small caps and it's the other four hundred 0:03:54.240 --> 0:03:56.480 and ninety three stocks. Do you think that that is 0:03:57.120 --> 0:03:59.080 what this is going to look like into year end? 0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:00.360 Well? 0:04:00.440 --> 0:04:03.560 I think if in fact, the market is starting to 0:04:03.640 --> 0:04:06.360 perceive that the Fed isn't going to ease as much 0:04:06.400 --> 0:04:08.920 as they thought after the fifty basis point cut on 0:04:08.960 --> 0:04:13.160 September eighteenth, then I think the market starts to get 0:04:13.200 --> 0:04:16.000 cool off to the idea that the Rustle two thousand 0:04:16.080 --> 0:04:18.719 is going to outperform and go back to the S 0:04:18.800 --> 0:04:21.240 and P five hundred and maybe even go back to 0:04:21.400 --> 0:04:24.159 just seven of those stocks, a so called Magnificent seven, 0:04:24.680 --> 0:04:29.360 and look to John's point, I don't want to get 0:04:29.720 --> 0:04:34.320 too worried about a melt up here an evaluation basis. 0:04:34.560 --> 0:04:36.880 If it turns out to be an earnings lead melt up, 0:04:37.200 --> 0:04:40.599 we certainly have had Tesla for example. Maybe it wasn't 0:04:40.720 --> 0:04:44.160 so much earnings as hype, but as you folks point out, 0:04:44.200 --> 0:04:45.920 this is going to be a busy week for earnings, 0:04:46.200 --> 0:04:49.240 and we could have some upside surprises from the Magnificent 0:04:49.320 --> 0:04:54.160 seven which would drive the NASZAC to further record hize, 0:04:54.360 --> 0:04:56.480 even in the face of bond yields going up. 0:04:57.200 --> 0:04:58.920 I want to get back to where you see bond 0:04:58.960 --> 0:05:01.679 yields going because you say that we could get higher 0:05:01.760 --> 0:05:04.440 yields regardless if it's a Republican or Democrats sweep. When 0:05:04.480 --> 0:05:07.280 you look at how the Senate races are looking to go, 0:05:07.600 --> 0:05:09.440 it looks like you can pretty much take the dem 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:12.080 sweep off the table. If there's going to be a sweep, 0:05:12.120 --> 0:05:14.440 it's likely going to be read So tell us a 0:05:14.440 --> 0:05:16.599 little bit more what that could mean not just to 0:05:16.680 --> 0:05:19.560 yield short terms and long terms, but also other assets. 0:05:20.640 --> 0:05:24.200 Well, it gets as confusing as Trump's policies are confusing. 0:05:25.800 --> 0:05:29.720 You know, the idea of raising tariffs across the board 0:05:29.760 --> 0:05:34.320 by twenty percent and against China sixty percent is probably 0:05:34.400 --> 0:05:38.120 a bargaining position. I mean, it's hard to imagine that 0:05:38.160 --> 0:05:41.200 this administration would get advice from its own economists saying 0:05:41.240 --> 0:05:43.919 that that would be a good idea because it certainly 0:05:43.960 --> 0:05:50.080 would be inflationary, so bargaining chip for the deal maker 0:05:50.160 --> 0:05:54.640 Trump would make sense, But as a realistic alternative to 0:05:55.600 --> 0:06:01.599 taxes and incomes, that doesn't make that much sense. On 0:06:01.640 --> 0:06:04.640 the other hand, Trump wants to produce more oil, which 0:06:04.640 --> 0:06:10.240 would be disinflationary for the US, but there's no discussion 0:06:10.320 --> 0:06:14.040 by either candidate about doing anything to reduce the deficits, 0:06:14.160 --> 0:06:16.600 to deal with the debt, to deal with the exploding, 0:06:16.880 --> 0:06:20.440 exploding interest and that interest expense of the government. So 0:06:20.600 --> 0:06:24.040 I think the bond reaction to a sweep, as I said, 0:06:24.040 --> 0:06:26.000 by either side. I want to be balanced about this, 0:06:26.120 --> 0:06:29.360 but you're right, the sweep is looking increasingly if it's 0:06:29.360 --> 0:06:31.680 going to happen, it would happen with Trump winning because 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:34.520 of what you said about the Senate and the House, 0:06:35.120 --> 0:06:37.360 and in that scenario of the bond yield, I think 0:06:37.440 --> 0:06:39.080 easily goes to four and a half percent. 0:06:39.800 --> 0:06:42.919 Take us through what can happen if this election drags on, 0:06:43.440 --> 0:06:44.520 or if it's contested. 0:06:46.040 --> 0:06:49.080 I don't even want to think about that possibility. The 0:06:49.120 --> 0:06:53.560 country is so partisan that, you know, we've been kind 0:06:53.560 --> 0:06:59.719 of driving ourselves mad here with the political partisanship, and 0:06:59.760 --> 0:07:04.000 to have a closely contested election, we'd be very unsettling 0:07:04.640 --> 0:07:07.800 to the bond market, to the stock market, to all 0:07:07.839 --> 0:07:11.320 of us. I think it would be resolved of obviously 0:07:11.400 --> 0:07:13.600 at some point we will have a president, but if 0:07:13.600 --> 0:07:16.080 it takes months, it could mean that the rest of 0:07:16.120 --> 0:07:19.400 the year will not be a great one for the 0:07:19.440 --> 0:07:20.320 financial markets. 0:07:20.560 --> 0:07:23.000 That is the market nightmare very few want to see. 0:07:23.160 --> 0:07:36.520 And thank you, sir if you HADENTNY research. Dollar strengthening 0:07:36.560 --> 0:07:38.640 heading into the final week of the US election has 0:07:38.640 --> 0:07:41.400 tried its way the economic impact of both candidates. Mark 0:07:41.480 --> 0:07:43.960 McCormick of TD writing, we have painted the election as 0:07:43.960 --> 0:07:46.600 a binary event, with massive tale rists on either side. 0:07:46.720 --> 0:07:49.320 The data currently favors the dollar regardless of who wins, 0:07:49.360 --> 0:07:52.640 suggesting to buy dollar dips into twenty twenty five, even 0:07:53.120 --> 0:07:55.480 if Harris wins. Mark joined US now for more Mark, 0:07:55.480 --> 0:07:57.760 welcome to the program. Let's just look ahead to next week, 0:07:57.920 --> 0:08:00.600 give us the best case outcome for the stellar and 0:08:00.640 --> 0:08:02.960 give us the worst case outcome for the US stella 0:08:03.000 --> 0:08:04.000 which ones which. 0:08:04.880 --> 0:08:07.120 Well, Like I said, it's a binary event with like 0:08:07.200 --> 0:08:10.040 two large tail rists on either side. So obviously the 0:08:10.040 --> 0:08:12.760 most bullish for the dollars of red wave, largely again 0:08:12.800 --> 0:08:16.080 because number one, you get tariffs immediately on day one, 0:08:16.120 --> 0:08:17.920 as soon as Trump takes over. The second thing is 0:08:17.960 --> 0:08:20.720 you can have fiscal support and deregulation and all the 0:08:20.760 --> 0:08:24.680 things that are great ingredients that are cocktails for outperformance 0:08:24.800 --> 0:08:27.040 US equities. And I'd say on the other side, the 0:08:27.280 --> 0:08:29.440 thing that kind of confuses the market the most, or 0:08:29.520 --> 0:08:32.120 is probably the most bearish for the dollar, is a 0:08:32.120 --> 0:08:34.920 blue wave, but it's probably the most unlikely scenario. Betting 0:08:34.920 --> 0:08:37.560 markets have it about ten percent, largely again because what 0:08:37.559 --> 0:08:39.760 you could do is you undermine the equity market. I 0:08:39.760 --> 0:08:41.800 think the most important thing to think about for this 0:08:41.880 --> 0:08:44.800 election is the number one thing that's been driving the 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:48.360 currency market is not rates differentials, it's equity market performance. 0:08:50.160 --> 0:08:51.760 With that in mind, then Mark, what do you think 0:08:51.800 --> 0:08:55.120 is actually outperforming already in pricing gain the election outcome? 0:08:55.200 --> 0:08:56.760 Because a lot of people in the equity market are 0:08:56.760 --> 0:08:59.040 look into financials and saying that maybe that's a lean 0:08:59.280 --> 0:09:01.560 to a Trump wain and maybe that's so for done 0:09:01.559 --> 0:09:03.840 and maybe we get reversal of that through next week. 0:09:03.840 --> 0:09:05.880 Do you see any sign if that taking place in 0:09:06.000 --> 0:09:07.200 fas with that in mind. 0:09:08.400 --> 0:09:10.600 Well, I think one component. It's been really interesting. We 0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:12.680 talked about this a lot this entire year. There's really 0:09:12.679 --> 0:09:15.319 no macro theme that's driving markets. Like for the first 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:17.000 start of the year, we talked about inflation, then we 0:09:17.000 --> 0:09:20.040 talked about growth. Now we're talking about inflation again, probably 0:09:20.080 --> 0:09:22.320 because we forgot to talk about inflation for a little while. 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:24.960 So the number one factor that we see that is 0:09:25.040 --> 0:09:28.400 kind of underscoring what's driving market performance is mean reversion 0:09:28.480 --> 0:09:31.600 expressed or positioning. So I would highlight that through the 0:09:31.640 --> 0:09:33.840 move that we saw recently in the dollar, the dollar 0:09:33.960 --> 0:09:36.719 was basically short on our positioning models, so we had 0:09:36.720 --> 0:09:39.040 a very like we had a perfect storm of US 0:09:39.120 --> 0:09:41.440 data outperforming the rest of the world, which has actually 0:09:41.480 --> 0:09:43.520 been happening through most of the summer, but the market's 0:09:43.520 --> 0:09:45.960 woken up to it. We've also seen again the FED 0:09:46.000 --> 0:09:49.280 took a huge risk by cutting fifty basis points and 0:09:49.280 --> 0:09:51.480 now we're starting to see that could backlash a little bit. 0:09:51.720 --> 0:09:54.920 And also again the positioning was built into a single 0:09:55.040 --> 0:09:57.880 narrative which was only about the slowdown in Theo's economy, 0:09:58.160 --> 0:09:59.960 and now all these things have come back to mark 0:10:00.320 --> 0:10:04.559 they were positioned incorrectly. Data dependence leaves us again very 0:10:04.600 --> 0:10:07.240 focused on a month or six weeks of data that 0:10:07.280 --> 0:10:10.199 basically in turn catches markets offt guard when the pendulum 0:10:10.240 --> 0:10:12.439 SLINKs too far in the other direction. So I think 0:10:12.480 --> 0:10:14.680 a big piece of this right now is that the 0:10:14.800 --> 0:10:18.720 dollar looks fundamentally positive. Data is doing better than what 0:10:18.760 --> 0:10:21.320 we're seeing in Europe and China. And I know markets 0:10:21.360 --> 0:10:24.120 are like very focused on the China Simules package, but 0:10:24.160 --> 0:10:26.480 to me, the China Simuls package is a second half 0:10:26.520 --> 0:10:29.120 of twenty twenty five story that things are going to 0:10:29.120 --> 0:10:31.880 get worse before they get better. So again the key 0:10:31.960 --> 0:10:35.760 theme here is that the macro situation is evolving into 0:10:35.840 --> 0:10:38.559 what is a more bullish fundamental story for the dollar, 0:10:38.640 --> 0:10:39.839 regardless of who wins. 0:10:40.120 --> 0:10:42.559 Some people who are skeptical of the dollar point to gold, 0:10:42.760 --> 0:10:44.720 and they say gold's been a moonshop because people are 0:10:44.720 --> 0:10:47.040 worried about the dollar and worried about the idea of 0:10:47.080 --> 0:10:49.920 people having faith that this truly can be the reserve currency. 0:10:49.960 --> 0:10:51.840 Not necessarily next year, the year after, but say in 0:10:51.880 --> 0:10:54.640 ten twenty years. Do you look at gold, given the 0:10:54.640 --> 0:10:56.640 fact that it's almost doubled in price since the beginning 0:10:56.679 --> 0:10:59.320 of over over the past five years, if you take 0:10:59.360 --> 0:11:01.559 a look at that, does that make you at all 0:11:01.600 --> 0:11:04.800 concerned about this dollar call? 0:11:04.960 --> 0:11:05.760 It doesn't. 0:11:05.920 --> 0:11:08.800 I think what's interesting is again you have to think about, like, 0:11:08.800 --> 0:11:10.840 what are the assets that people want to hold in 0:11:10.880 --> 0:11:14.280 an environment where there's geopolitical uncertainty we're dealing with, with 0:11:14.440 --> 0:11:16.920 my opinion, structurally higher inflation than what we saw before 0:11:16.960 --> 0:11:20.360 the pandemic, in a world where what are your bigger 0:11:20.480 --> 0:11:24.160 risks towards a recession or higher inflation? And I think 0:11:24.160 --> 0:11:27.920 in that environment, like more people are focused on hard assets, 0:11:27.920 --> 0:11:31.160 and those hard assets provide a decent hedge relative to 0:11:31.160 --> 0:11:33.600 say fixed income. So I think if you were to 0:11:33.600 --> 0:11:35.800 think about what's my asset allocation mix, and still you 0:11:35.840 --> 0:11:38.760 want to belong yous equities, which gives you an exposure 0:11:38.760 --> 0:11:41.120 to bus dollar. If you think about even an asset 0:11:41.120 --> 0:11:44.000 allocation mix we talked about in our election piece for 0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:48.480 next year is yes, Asia has the ability to grow 0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:51.120 their economy. They have savings that they've exported to the 0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:54.360 rest of the world. Europe does not have the ability 0:11:54.400 --> 0:11:56.880 to grow to economies you've talked about this morning. I've 0:11:56.920 --> 0:11:59.520 hurt in prior pieces. But like France is spending too much, 0:11:59.600 --> 0:12:02.240 Germany doesn't spend enough. And again, if you look at 0:12:02.280 --> 0:12:04.880 if you think about the dragging report, everything that's been 0:12:04.920 --> 0:12:08.240 coming out of Europe is focused on the industrial audio sector, 0:12:08.480 --> 0:12:11.000 which is something that there's a reason why there's terarifs 0:12:11.000 --> 0:12:12.840 being put in these sectors. And there's a reason why 0:12:12.920 --> 0:12:15.880 China is the world's largest export of automobiles right now. 0:12:16.240 --> 0:12:18.680 So if you think about the growth and the equity 0:12:18.760 --> 0:12:21.760 and all these stories, the US equity market still offers 0:12:22.480 --> 0:12:25.560 probably the best risk adjusted performance relative. 0:12:25.240 --> 0:12:26.000 To other classes. 0:12:26.160 --> 0:12:28.800 We could see a rotation to Asian equities where currencies 0:12:28.800 --> 0:12:32.240 are undervalued, but that still leaves Europe somewhere far behind 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:34.439 everywhere else. And gold is still an asset that you 0:12:34.520 --> 0:12:35.200 want to hold onto. 0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:36.360 Because what we're. 0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:40.880 Seeing is coordinated fiscal and monetary policy with inflation above. 0:12:40.640 --> 0:12:43.040 Target mark, We've got to leave it there. I appreciate it. 0:12:43.040 --> 0:12:46.000 Stain just got some breaking news on blowing care. Matt McCormick, 0:12:46.040 --> 0:12:58.560 the of TD. We're just over a week until election 0:12:58.720 --> 0:13:03.400 deck Blimberg reporting more registered Republicans have already voted in Arizona, Nevada, 0:13:03.440 --> 0:13:07.080 and North Carolina. They're Democrats, Henrietta Trace of Vada. Palmer's writing, 0:13:07.200 --> 0:13:09.480 it is distinctly possible that a victor is named in 0:13:09.520 --> 0:13:12.880 the twenty twenty four election by Wednesday. If not. The 0:13:12.920 --> 0:13:16.400 worst case scenario pandemic year level disruption suggests developments could 0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:19.840 come through Friday and possibly Saturday, as was the case 0:13:20.040 --> 0:13:23.320 in twenty twenty. Henrietta joins US now for more So, Henrietta, 0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:24.839 so let's get to your base case. Do we get 0:13:24.840 --> 0:13:26.880 at twenty sixteen or a twenty twenty. 0:13:27.840 --> 0:13:29.520 I think we're looking more at twenty sixteen. 0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:33.800 I think a lot of the disparities, discrepancies, any concerns 0:13:33.880 --> 0:13:37.280 at the local and county level amongst the electors. 0:13:37.400 --> 0:13:38.679 You know, they're fully stabbed. 0:13:39.080 --> 0:13:41.600 They have gone through the twenty twenty two midterm elections, 0:13:41.640 --> 0:13:43.599 They've gone through all these lawsuits. I think all the 0:13:43.679 --> 0:13:46.040 teaser crossed and the eyes are dotted, and we will 0:13:46.040 --> 0:13:49.480 have an outcome on Wednesday. I'm optimistic, Henrietta, But what do. 0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:52.080 You make of Maricopa County election officials saying could take 0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:54.199 anywhere from ten to thirteen days. 0:13:54.880 --> 0:13:57.360 Yeah, I mean, they're definitely preparing us for the worst. 0:13:57.480 --> 0:14:01.239 But I believe Arizona and Nevada in particular were uniquely 0:14:01.880 --> 0:14:04.240 sort of embarrassed by the way the twenty twenty election 0:14:04.520 --> 0:14:06.280 took so long to call, and a lot of that 0:14:06.320 --> 0:14:09.080 disruption came from the occupant of the White House. So 0:14:09.240 --> 0:14:11.760 I think that this time around they will be very 0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:15.319 diligent and careful about how they're reporting, and then hopefully 0:14:15.360 --> 0:14:17.160 we won't have to depend on just one state to 0:14:17.200 --> 0:14:20.120 decide or to know who wins the election. Maybe in 0:14:20.160 --> 0:14:22.320 the House for sure, I think it'll take all week 0:14:22.400 --> 0:14:24.840 to get a solution, but I'm hopeful that the rest 0:14:24.840 --> 0:14:26.800 of the country will give us a decisive solution. 0:14:27.040 --> 0:14:28.840 A theme that I've been hearing from sources a lot 0:14:28.880 --> 0:14:31.680 on both sides that Democrats are actually running a very 0:14:31.680 --> 0:14:35.280 good ground game, especially in these swing states. But you're 0:14:35.320 --> 0:14:38.160 actually seeing, and so are we. A lot of Republicans 0:14:38.200 --> 0:14:40.760 are going out and voting early. Are they catching up 0:14:40.760 --> 0:14:41.600 to that ground game. 0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:46.120 It's the ground game right now, and the pull forward 0:14:46.200 --> 0:14:49.680 vote is incredible in a number of states, including Nevada, 0:14:50.320 --> 0:14:54.240 there are double the amount of election day Republicans from 0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:57.520 twenty twenty voting early this cycle. So this message that 0:14:57.560 --> 0:14:59.480 you saw on the Big Joe Botron at MSG last 0:14:59.520 --> 0:15:03.960 night was vote early. The Republican Party across various swing states, 0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:07.040 including Pennsylvania and Georgia as well, have spent millions of 0:15:07.080 --> 0:15:10.200 dollars trying to educate their voters to vote early, vote 0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:14.760 in person. Democrats still predominantly vote early in mail in ballots, 0:15:15.040 --> 0:15:17.360 So we're waiting for that data, for example, out of 0:15:17.360 --> 0:15:20.520 Clark County in Nevada, to catch up. But what we're 0:15:20.560 --> 0:15:23.720 going to need and what Democrats will need going forward, 0:15:23.840 --> 0:15:26.200 is to see what the turnout is on election day, 0:15:26.480 --> 0:15:28.400 and in particular this week, this is a week where 0:15:28.400 --> 0:15:31.360 a lot of the younger voters turnout early if they're 0:15:31.360 --> 0:15:35.200 going to vote. Mostly right now, it's rural, white, older 0:15:35.280 --> 0:15:36.440 voters who are turning. 0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:40.400 Out, which is a disproportionately Republican demographic, Henrietta, we know 0:15:40.480 --> 0:15:43.200 that once you go out and vote early, then whether 0:15:43.880 --> 0:15:46.880 Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, you could focus on some 0:15:47.000 --> 0:15:50.280 of those margins potentially to get out then on election Day, 0:15:50.320 --> 0:15:52.280 and you say this all comes down to the suburbs. 0:15:52.440 --> 0:15:55.520 Who wins the suburbs, Yeah, that is the game. 0:15:55.640 --> 0:15:59.560 In twenty sixteen, Hillary Clinton lost the suburbs, and I 0:15:59.560 --> 0:16:01.400 think it was only by about two points, but it 0:16:01.440 --> 0:16:03.520 was enough to lose the entire election. This is your 0:16:03.520 --> 0:16:07.480 suburbs outside of Philadelphia, outside of Pittsburgh, key portions of 0:16:07.480 --> 0:16:12.240 Michigan and Wisconsin. In twenty twenty, Joe Biden narrowly won 0:16:12.320 --> 0:16:14.560 them back again by I think two points, so he 0:16:14.640 --> 0:16:17.840 was able to claw back those suburban voters. Kamala Harris 0:16:17.920 --> 0:16:21.880 currently leads nationally with suburban voters by six points. So 0:16:21.920 --> 0:16:24.000 we spend a lot of time talking about the youth 0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:28.200 Latino and youth mail vote. Obviously they'll be a part 0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:30.360 of the conversation as we're talking about Puerto Rico being 0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:32.400 a floating pile of garbage and things like that. But 0:16:32.440 --> 0:16:36.840 that is what turns off the suburban married voter, and 0:16:36.880 --> 0:16:40.800 they disproportionately vote in elections, and they have been the 0:16:40.880 --> 0:16:44.120 clincher for either candidate in the last two cycles and 0:16:44.160 --> 0:16:47.040 probably will be again in this third cycle. They're voting 0:16:47.160 --> 0:16:50.440 more than they did in twenty twenty, while cities and 0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:54.520 urban dwellers are voting less and Royal voters are voting. 0:16:54.320 --> 0:16:55.680 More than they did in twenty twenty. 0:16:55.720 --> 0:16:58.800 So it's the suburban vote that is integral and critical. 0:16:58.480 --> 0:16:59.440 To this election right now. 0:16:59.520 --> 0:17:02.040 So you push that forward, Henriette. Are you saying that 0:17:02.320 --> 0:17:05.280 Kamala Harris is more support than the polls are giving her? 0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:09.800 Harris has more support with voters who matter more again, 0:17:09.800 --> 0:17:12.840 because they vote more. They are a larger demographic, and 0:17:13.040 --> 0:17:15.840 they are the ones that are persuadable more than anything else. 0:17:15.880 --> 0:17:18.359 You know, you've lost the cities that those voters are 0:17:18.359 --> 0:17:20.879 going to Democrats, and you've lost the rols those voters 0:17:20.920 --> 0:17:23.320 are going far to Donald Trump. It's the voters in 0:17:23.359 --> 0:17:27.080 the middle in suburbia that are swinging back and forth 0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:30.560 between twenty sixteen being pro Trump and then twenty twenty 0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:32.680 decided they didn't like what they had gotten for the 0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:35.840 last four years, and now under Kamala Harris running at 0:17:35.840 --> 0:17:38.960 the top of the ticket, they have swung pretty substantially 0:17:38.960 --> 0:17:41.400 in her direction and away from Donald Trump. And their 0:17:41.440 --> 0:17:43.560 turnout is what's going to be the biggest bang for 0:17:43.600 --> 0:17:46.040 your back population wise, to split these states. 0:17:46.160 --> 0:17:49.080 It's pretty controversial, Henrietta. What you're saying, based in the 0:17:49.080 --> 0:17:50.960 polling that we've seen in just sort of the momentum 0:17:50.960 --> 0:17:53.800 and what we've seen embedding markets which have given Donald 0:17:53.800 --> 0:17:57.679 Trump the clear lead. Where are people wrong in their analysis? 0:17:57.720 --> 0:17:59.920 Is it just a suburban voter or is there something 0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:03.400 else in terms of what the deciding factors really are. 0:18:04.400 --> 0:18:05.280 Well, I spent all. 0:18:05.200 --> 0:18:07.159 Week last week with investors up in New York, and 0:18:07.200 --> 0:18:10.600 I would say that the street is even more bullish 0:18:10.600 --> 0:18:13.800 on Trump winning than the predictive markets are. Last I 0:18:13.880 --> 0:18:16.240 check pridtive markets, where like sixty one percent that Trump 0:18:16.280 --> 0:18:18.160 would win, I'd say on the street it's more. 0:18:18.080 --> 0:18:19.000 Like seventy percent. 0:18:19.800 --> 0:18:22.480 So there is this high degree of conviction, and the 0:18:22.520 --> 0:18:24.960 early voting data out of Nevada is painting a very 0:18:25.160 --> 0:18:26.440 leak picture for Democrats. 0:18:26.480 --> 0:18:27.840 So there's reason to be excited. 0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:30.840 Unfortunately, it's just too early to get fully on board 0:18:30.920 --> 0:18:34.119 the Trump train and put your bets on the market 0:18:34.200 --> 0:18:36.240 right now in a way that suggests that there is 0:18:36.280 --> 0:18:38.320 no time for change. There is a whole another week 0:18:38.520 --> 0:18:40.919 of early voting in most states, and then obviously we 0:18:40.960 --> 0:18:43.520 have election Day where turnout is going to be the 0:18:43.840 --> 0:18:45.800 name of the game. So I think that the street 0:18:45.880 --> 0:18:47.919 is picking up accurately on state of Nevada. 0:18:47.960 --> 0:18:49.280 But that's not the story that the rest of the 0:18:49.440 --> 0:18:51.479 nation is telling us. Yeah, it could be, but it's 0:18:51.480 --> 0:18:52.040 pretty early. 0:18:52.119 --> 0:18:54.040 Henry. So we spoke to against this morning that said, 0:18:54.080 --> 0:18:56.200 for the business world, for the tech titans, the writing 0:18:56.560 --> 0:18:58.439 might be on the wall. Let's talk about some of 0:18:58.440 --> 0:19:01.880 the tech titans. After the assessmin attempt on Donald Trump 0:19:02.040 --> 0:19:05.000 back in the summer, we had an interview. We spoke 0:19:05.080 --> 0:19:08.080 to the Meta CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, who referred to that 0:19:08.119 --> 0:19:11.800 as being badass. And then we saw Jeff Bezos's Washington 0:19:11.800 --> 0:19:14.520 Post over the weekend failed to endorse a candidate, some 0:19:14.600 --> 0:19:17.520 people suggesting that maybe it's because Bezos was worried about 0:19:17.520 --> 0:19:20.280 an incoming Trump administration. And then we heard on the 0:19:20.320 --> 0:19:23.359 Rogan podcast, so the Alphabet ceo had given the former 0:19:23.400 --> 0:19:25.840 president at call as well to congratulate him on his 0:19:25.880 --> 0:19:28.560 campaign event A McDonald to what a hit it was 0:19:29.000 --> 0:19:32.280 on Google. What do you think that they sense is 0:19:32.320 --> 0:19:37.080 coming from the Republican leadership that might affect them? 0:19:37.160 --> 0:19:38.680 That's a great question. I mean, you're going to have 0:19:38.720 --> 0:19:40.760 anti trust on the docket next year. We have a 0:19:40.800 --> 0:19:43.520 massive tax bill that we have to write. The taras 0:19:43.600 --> 0:19:45.320 are also going to be a concern, not just that, 0:19:45.400 --> 0:19:50.240 but expert control restrictions, inbound and outbound investment restrictions. I 0:19:50.240 --> 0:19:53.400 think all those pieces are really integral. But the reality 0:19:53.440 --> 0:19:56.280