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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along

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Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day

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Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,

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Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets

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Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts,

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Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. All right, we've got some

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Speaker 1: big round numbers out there. Of course, DAL thirty thousand,

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Speaker 1: NASDAC twelve thousand, that's just extraordinary. They're big numbers. What

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Speaker 1: do they mean? Let's try to put some of that

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Speaker 1: into context. Nobody better to do that with. Then, David

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Speaker 1: Ko Talk, Chairman and chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors.

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Speaker 1: They have over three billion dollars in assets under management,

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Speaker 1: located in beautiful Sarasota, Florida. David, thanks much for joining

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Speaker 1: us again. Okay, some big round numbers. A lot of

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Speaker 1: people say, I don't worry about it, They're just numbers,

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Speaker 1: but boy, what do you make of them? Well, it's extraordinary, Paul,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much for having me on. Um. You know,

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Speaker 1: I thought that to the book DAL thirty thousand when

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Speaker 1: it was written and we were all a few weeks

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Speaker 1: younger then, and and people thought it was a statement

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Speaker 1: of madness at the time. Look where we are, so

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Speaker 1: it's a streny. The markets, as we see it, are

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Speaker 1: looking beyond next spring. Um, it's the classics six or

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Speaker 1: nine months uhum forward looking post vaccine recovery. And you

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Speaker 1: see some forecasts of the rory twenties. I read a

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Speaker 1: piece I hadyard Any about that he's using that mantra.

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Speaker 1: So maybe we have the explosion of spending of what

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Speaker 1: has been a year of accumulated savings um in this

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Speaker 1: release of cabin fever. After we inoculate people and after

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Speaker 1: we overcome what is a terrible shock. Right now, markets

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Speaker 1: are looking beyond the shock. Those of us who are

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Speaker 1: living day to day lives are still living with the shock.

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Speaker 1: And unfortunately a lot of folks are letting their guard

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Speaker 1: down and they're getting sick, and when they do so,

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Speaker 1: it's a tragedy. With healthcare workers, nurses. I saw a

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Speaker 1: note Cleveland clinic as a thousand staff furloughed, not furload,

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Speaker 1: but on medical leave because they're sick. So we're we're

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Speaker 1: in the midst of the forest fire right now. And

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Speaker 1: that's a sad tragedy for America and the world. Yeah, exactly, David.

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Speaker 1: Are we going to see something catlest some catalysts arrive

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Speaker 1: that sort of brings this market back to reality or

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Speaker 1: is it just assuming that Joe Biden takes office and

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Speaker 1: that you know, there's stimulus, that all those millions of

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Speaker 1: people don't get a picked in January, that the unemployment

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Speaker 1: it starts coming down quickly next year, and that you know,

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Speaker 1: by the end of next year all as well in

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Speaker 1: the world again. Well, I don't know they'll all be

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Speaker 1: well in the world again, Vanny, but we certainly see

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Speaker 1: markets looking to Biden calm, less disruption, more season professional

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Speaker 1: government governance, and finally we are going to have a

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Speaker 1: transition and all of this disruption of our electoral process

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Speaker 1: looks like it's going to come to an end. And

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Speaker 1: I think markets are celebrating the lack of disruption and

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Speaker 1: chaos that we have seen. So it's a relief on

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Speaker 1: top of what would be a v shape recovery outlook

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Speaker 1: for next year and the year after. That's how it

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Speaker 1: looks to me and David. It also is it relates

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Speaker 1: to your outlook, or it appears that we have a

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Speaker 1: very clear rotation trade. You know, out of some of

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Speaker 1: those growthy names that have been really the stalwarts for

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Speaker 1: this equity market really since financial crisis, whether it's an

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Speaker 1: Apple or an Amazon, into more cyclical type of groups,

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Speaker 1: whether it's banks or even even energy has had a

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Speaker 1: great month. Um. Do you believe that's the play right here?

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Speaker 1: And how long you think it could last? Well are

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Speaker 1: two questions. So we use a little joke in the company.

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Speaker 1: We say, Fang went to the dentist, and now we're

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Speaker 1: going to have a broadening market. And I guess there's

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Speaker 1: something to that. We see it in the small caps

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Speaker 1: and we see it in the Russell two thousand um

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Speaker 1: in our shop. We have uh good positions in the

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Speaker 1: Russell two thousand in through the et F structure and

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Speaker 1: in mid caps and small caps. So we've been enjoying

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Speaker 1: the rally and we continue to do so. We we

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Speaker 1: took advantage j of the sell off a few weeks ago,

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Speaker 1: and we have been nearly fully invested to this surge.

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Speaker 1: I admit that this is very fast, very robust, and

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Speaker 1: every day we get up and look at it and

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Speaker 1: we're terrified, and we don't sell anything in the next day.

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Speaker 1: We say we're glad we waited. That's uh, that's where

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Speaker 1: we are today in Thanksgiving week. Will you continue to

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Speaker 1: stay in this market as that out help David Well,

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Speaker 1: I I will for at least the next seven minutes, Vanny.

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Speaker 1: But but after that, I'm not sure. Yeah, I think so,

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Speaker 1: because when you put the robust recovery and the productivity

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Speaker 1: games on top of this v shaped powerful uh fiscal stimulus,

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Speaker 1: monetary stimulus you projected into two, you get an upward

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Speaker 1: trajectory in earnings and it can be supplies in surprisingly robust.

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Speaker 1: And I think there's a second kicker here, and that

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Speaker 1: is the Biden administration lifts the lid on DOCTA. That's

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Speaker 1: nine thou people who begin to flourish instead of hide

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Speaker 1: behind the front door because they make it decordered. We

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Speaker 1: change the immigration structure, and so we include, we increase

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Speaker 1: the workforce, the labor force by allowing it to flourish.

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Speaker 1: We bring back into the United States people. We need nurses.

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Speaker 1: There's a there's a demand for million nursing care people.

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Speaker 1: They would like to come to American work. I think

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Speaker 1: they would like to still come to America. They used

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Speaker 1: to want to do that. So If you add productivity games,

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Speaker 1: which we're getting in huge amounts, to increase in working population,

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Speaker 1: you accelerate the growth rate. I think we could hit

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Speaker 1: growth rates above three percent, maybe even to four percent

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Speaker 1: for a couple of years in g d P. If

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Speaker 1: we get population and productivity, and we release the economy

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Speaker 1: from chaos and from COVID, it could be an extraordinary

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Speaker 1: couple of years. And the markets are saying that. Markets

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Speaker 1: are saying those companies are going to reflect that in

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Speaker 1: their earnings. And I believe that's not only possible, but

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Speaker 1: I think it's becoming more and more likely as efficacious

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Speaker 1: vaccines get into distribution. That's remarkable science being applied. Remarkable. David,

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Speaker 1: how many milestones have we seen together in this market?

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Speaker 1: There's not the reely rhetorical question because there's no time

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Speaker 1: to answer it. But I can tell a listener is

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Speaker 1: that me and David and Paul have seen very, very

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Speaker 1: many milestones. That's David Kotalk, their chairman and chief investment

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Speaker 1: officer at Cumberland Advisors, joining us from Sarazota, Florida. Well,

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Speaker 1: we're certainly on a doll thirty thousand. Watch your three

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Speaker 1: or seventy points here nine thousand, nine sixty two. Clearly

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Speaker 1: equity investors are certainly willing to look past the dire

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Speaker 1: pandemic numbers were experiencing right now, look to the other

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Speaker 1: side of this in a world with a multiple vaccine.

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Speaker 1: To get a sense of kind of where we should

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Speaker 1: be looking in the market, we welcome Nicholas Co, founder

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Speaker 1: of Data Trek Research based in New York City. Nick,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us again here. What do

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Speaker 1: you make of this equity market and are you surprised

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Speaker 1: at all about the ability of this market to really

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Speaker 1: look well towards the other side of this pandemic. You're right,

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Speaker 1: it is absolutely impressive. I'm not all that surprised, only

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Speaker 1: because you know, as a cyclicals oriented analysts, this very

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Speaker 1: much fits the playbook of every recovery back to when

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Speaker 1: I started looking at cycles in the early nineties covering

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Speaker 1: the auto industry. So it's certainly a compressed version of

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Speaker 1: thout cyclical recoveries, but it does fit the basic paradigm

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Speaker 1: as much as any other one does. Small cap rallying industrials, rallying, financial's,

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Speaker 1: rallying tech under performing, you know, against the backdrop of recovery.

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Speaker 1: It makes all makes sense, What, then, Nick, should we

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Speaker 1: expect next Well, I mean, obviously we've got a real

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Speaker 1: head of steam on this market, and so you know,

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Speaker 1: the next couple of particularly days is going to be

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Speaker 1: a further continuation of the rally, particularly into light volume.

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Speaker 1: But I do think there's going to have to be

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Speaker 1: some kinds of reset back to some you know, more

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Speaker 1: real form of reality, if you will, as we get

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Speaker 1: into December and into the first part of next year.

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Speaker 1: Because cyclical rallies always kind of blast off on hope,

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Speaker 1: and that's what we're seeing right now. Then there's a

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Speaker 1: real reality check when you start to see the numbers

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Speaker 1: come through. And while earnings are definitely going to show

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Speaker 1: leverage next year, you know, you don't never want to

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Speaker 1: be around for when a company just meets expectations after

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Speaker 1: a recession, they've got to keep beating them by a

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Speaker 1: wide margin. So the new term setup is fine further

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Speaker 1: out first half of next year much offer. So Nick,

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Speaker 1: we see some more positive data points, I guess just

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Speaker 1: on the geopolitical front, we're having president like Biden begin

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Speaker 1: his transition, starting to fill out his cabinet, janet, yelling

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Speaker 1: treasury pick, what are your thoughts very helpful for markets

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Speaker 1: for I think probably all the obvious reasons, mostly, you know,

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Speaker 1: having somebody who can coordinate treasury policy federal reserve policy

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Speaker 1: and not necessarily emerge those two functions, but make them

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Speaker 1: work as smoothly as possible, and we definitely need to

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Speaker 1: help in they have fiscal and monetary policy work hand

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Speaker 1: in glove. Also obviously an experienced set of hands for

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Speaker 1: the economy. Somebody who is well known on Capitol Hill,

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Speaker 1: somebody who can easily be be confirmed by the Senate.

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Speaker 1: You know, just a huge thumbs up. It was a

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Speaker 1: great choice. Who else would you like to see on board, Nick,

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Speaker 1: in terms of regulation, in terms of everything else from

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Speaker 1: the SEC too, you know, anybody lee thing with the banks.

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Speaker 1: It's a wonderful question. Um, you know, without naming any

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Speaker 1: specific names, I think what the market wants to see.

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Speaker 1: You know, what Biden seems very much in the channel

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Speaker 1: to do is just picked non controversial, easy to confirm,

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Speaker 1: widely acceptable choices and really get the you know, get

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Speaker 1: Washington back into the mainstream of governing the way it did,

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Speaker 1: you know, for the last fifty years instead of the

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Speaker 1: last four. So Nick, how about as it relates to

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Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve chairman. Do you expect Pal to stay

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Speaker 1: or do you think the market would prefer perhaps someone

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Speaker 1: new Well, I mean, you know, Governor Brainers is obviously

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Speaker 1: the one that people call out is the most likely

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Speaker 1: potential next FED chare in two. I think the market

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Speaker 1: would like that only in terms of her usually dovish

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Speaker 1: bias Um and I think between you know, yelling and

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Speaker 1: whoever comes in the next at the FED, the market

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Speaker 1: is beginning to feel that incremental, really large bank regulation

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Speaker 1: isn't coming down the road, and so you're seeing you know,

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Speaker 1: names like well as Fargo really work today, the financials

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Speaker 1: work today. That's really been a beaten up group, not

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Speaker 1: just for rates being so low, because of the threat

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Speaker 1: of more regulation. And as long as that doesn't that

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Speaker 1: doesn't come down the road, whoever is the next bed share,

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Speaker 1: you know, should the market should welcome. So we just

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Speaker 1: had you know, retail sales reports that were pretty much okay, Nick,

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Speaker 1: and yeah, we're seeing a little bit of a dent

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Speaker 1: and consumer conferdence this month, but nothing you know massive.

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Speaker 1: We're seeing housing, at least in suburban areas across the

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Speaker 1: country holding up even more than that. It's on fire.

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Speaker 1: How is this economy doing? Yes, okay, So on retail sales,

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Speaker 1: very interesting point. I mean, we think we're going to

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Speaker 1: see very strong November retail sales versus last year. NRF

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Speaker 1: was out yesterday with a pretty positive forecast on retail sales.

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Speaker 1: And just think about how much money is not being

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Speaker 1: spent on holiday travel for example, that money is and

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Speaker 1: I spent get spent on holiday and recamplers have been

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Speaker 1: super aggressive on getting their specials out the door early,

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Speaker 1: whether it be online or in store, and so we

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Speaker 1: think November is going to be a very good month

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Speaker 1: of retail sales, and that will fit with the data

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Speaker 1: that we're seeing on home sales and home prices. We're

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Speaker 1: a little more circumspect about December, however, because we think

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Speaker 1: there's gonna be a lot of holiday demand pulled forward

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Speaker 1: to November and won't be there in December. So I

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Speaker 1: think the near term news is fine. We'll have to

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Speaker 1: wait and see how December plays out and then refasts. Nick,

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Speaker 1: just what is your forecast for when the Dow actually

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Speaker 1: tops thirty? Oh, I don't know. I'm checking my watch.

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Speaker 1: It's more along those lines um than anything else. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's a You know, it's that those people at discount

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Speaker 1: these big round numbers as something that really doesn't matter

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Speaker 1: to markets. I do think it matters to markets. If

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Speaker 1: you look to see how many retail investors google Dow

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Speaker 1: Jones versus S and P it's Dow Jones by like one,

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Speaker 1: they'll know when the deal gets to thirty and it

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Speaker 1: is a confidence lift, right, there is something to be

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Speaker 1: said for it, right, Yeah, yeah, I think so. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's a nice it's certainly nice for financial journalists to

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Speaker 1: talk about. But I think Nick, you're right. I mean,

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Speaker 1: people do view it as a plateau to be to

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Speaker 1: be achieved, so it can be important from that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think when you hit a round number,

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Speaker 1: at least what at least what becomes very obvious is

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Speaker 1: the direction, and if it's higher, well that's usually just

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Speaker 1: the green light end of its lower world. Probably didn't

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Speaker 1: see that one coming, Nick, Thank you so much. Nick

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Speaker 1: Cholos is co founder of Data Track Research, always full

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Speaker 1: of fascinating market insights daily, so we thank him for that. Well,

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Speaker 1: if you want to travel internationally, you better get used

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Speaker 1: to a new concept called a COVID passport. That's a

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Speaker 1: new word I think is entering our minacular right now.

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Speaker 1: Let's get some more details. We bring on Charlotte Ryan,

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Speaker 1: aviation reporter for bloombergsh is based in London. Charlotte, what

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Speaker 1: is a COVID passport? And do I need one? If

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Speaker 1: I want to travel internationally? At some point? Good afternoon.

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Speaker 1: So the COVID pass for it is an idea that

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Speaker 1: we've seen a few organizations starting to explore, the most

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Speaker 1: recent of those being AYATA, the International Air Transport Association.

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Speaker 1: And basically what it is is UM, an online effective

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Speaker 1: health status that would show your most recent COVID test

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Speaker 1: results and whether you've had a vaccine when indeed a

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Speaker 1: vaccine is available. And the idea is to link this

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Speaker 1: UM with your travel documents so that when passengers travel,

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Speaker 1: the airline or government that is accepting the passenger can

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Speaker 1: immediately see their health status. Who would be the regulator

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Speaker 1: for this? So that's a really good question, and it's still,

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Speaker 1: in a sense a bit of an open question. We've

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Speaker 1: got a few a few initiatives that are underway at

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Speaker 1: the moment, and such a health path for its actually

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Speaker 1: being trialed on routes in Asia, but it's not clear

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Speaker 1: to what extend. Governments would have to be involved in this. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: as we known from the travel disruption we've seen so

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Speaker 1: far with the virus is up to the individual governments

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Speaker 1: to decide under what conditions they want to let people in. UM.

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Speaker 1: So that is very much something that still has to

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Speaker 1: be resolved with these health path worts. So Charlotte, what's

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Speaker 1: what's the position of airlines? Generally speaking, I would think

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Speaker 1: they would be in favor of anything that would get

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Speaker 1: people back in their seats. Yeah, exactly. So I mean

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Speaker 1: we with this latest effor if I have, they're going

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Speaker 1: to trial this with i D, one of the bigger

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Speaker 1: airlines UM and they say that they're hoping to launch

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Speaker 1: with other airlines as well. We've also had Quantis saying

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Speaker 1: this week that once a vaccine is in place, they

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Speaker 1: would not allow international passengers to travel unless they have

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Speaker 1: been vaccinated. So there certainly is a willingness I think

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Speaker 1: to get people back in the air and also to

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Speaker 1: be as sure of passengers. But it is safe to fly,

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Speaker 1: so I don't fully understand because many of them are

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Speaker 1: not enforcing rules like mask wearing or you know, six

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Speaker 1: ft apart separation in the planes. But suddenly they'd want

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Speaker 1: you to prove that you've had a vaccine at some point. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: So on the six ft rule, we did have a

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Speaker 1: couple of US airlines that were putting not quite six feet,

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Speaker 1: but putting a gap in between each cassenger. So I

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Speaker 1: guess my point is that, you know, this doesn't seem

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Speaker 1: to be right now. They don't seem to be worried

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Speaker 1: about but too worried about, you know, enforcing certain rules

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Speaker 1: that might help people not get COVID. But when there

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Speaker 1: is a vaccine, suddenly they will be just explained that

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Speaker 1: to me sure, So I think in terms of mass

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Speaker 1: wearing at least, Um, you know, what we know from

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Speaker 1: the airlines is they all they all say that they

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Speaker 1: do enforced this currently. I know there have been cases

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Speaker 1: of individual flights where people's say that that's not what's happened. Um,

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Speaker 1: And I think, yeah. With the vaccine, I mean, I

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Speaker 1: guess the advantage from the airline point of view is

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Speaker 1: that it's this very clear indication if you get on

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Speaker 1: a flight where everybody has been vaccinated, you know that

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Speaker 1: you're you're pretty much safe. Whereas I think from the

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Speaker 1: airline side of things, they have suggested that things like

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Speaker 1: putting a seat in between passengers aren't necessarily that effective

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Speaker 1: as something was spread anyway, Yeah, exactly, just real quickly,

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Speaker 1: don't there any data that shows that people do get

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Speaker 1: the virus from air traffic? I haven't seen many stories

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Speaker 1: about that. Yeah, so this is still again a bit

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Speaker 1: of an open question since what extent this virus in

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Speaker 1: particular can spreads on aircraft. But we have had cases.

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Speaker 1: I asked to think they've been around four fifty cases,

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Speaker 1: which sounds like a lot, but it's worth highly in.

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Speaker 1: A good chunk of those were on a couple of

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Speaker 1: flights before the requirements where masks was brought in, and

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Speaker 1: but certainly there have been cases where where the virus

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Speaker 1: has spreads on the aircraft. It does seem that this

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Speaker 1: has something to do with the fact that just today

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Speaker 1: I had as predicting carriers will lose a combined one

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Speaker 1: fifty seven billion dollars this year and next year, which

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Speaker 1: is more than a forecast in June. So it also

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Speaker 1: was getting things wrong. Charlotte. Wonderful story, Charlotte, Ryan, they're

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Speaker 1: joining us well. I think for most people it appears

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Speaker 1: that this work from home situation is working out fairly well.

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Speaker 1: Now some companies are certainly think about what their staffing

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Speaker 1: plans will be post pandemic. UH. Deutsche back coming out

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Speaker 1: today and saying maybe they're considering on a permanent basis

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Speaker 1: having their workers work two days a week at home

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Speaker 1: on a permanent basis. Steve Aaron's is a German banks

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Speaker 1: reporter for Bloomberg News. He joins us from Frankfurt. Steve,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. So talk to

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Speaker 1: us about the news today about Deutsche Bank. What are

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Speaker 1: there their plans here post pandemic so UM, as with

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Speaker 1: many other banks, Glergi Bank obviously has been thinking about

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Speaker 1: its future once the pandemic is over. And it's been

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Speaker 1: in the kind of work from home mode since the

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Speaker 1: pandemic broke out in in earlier this year and and

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Speaker 1: in February March, people have been working from the home. UH.

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Speaker 1: They've been surprised as how well it's been working. And

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Speaker 1: now they're coming to the conclusion that this can help

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Speaker 1: UH lower costs and of course adapt to new circumstances,

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Speaker 1: and therefore there now approaching a new policy where they

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Speaker 1: will probably allow people are work from home to day

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Speaker 1: the week. So is it though, that you can work

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Speaker 1: home any two days you choose, because we know from

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Speaker 1: chat with hedge fund managers and various people who talk

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Speaker 1: to us about how their offices are staff that right

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Speaker 1: now Friday is not a very popular day for people

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Speaker 1: to come in, and neither is Monday. So are we

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Speaker 1: going to have of deute buying stuff in on Tuesday, Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: Thursday and the rest, you know, not in Monday Friday. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm not entirely sure how Dodge Bank will handle it,

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Speaker 1: but you're right, obviously that would be probably a very

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Speaker 1: heavy focus on Friday and Monday to work from home.

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Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure they will have policies in place that

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Speaker 1: won't permit that, though I don't have really insight knowledge

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Speaker 1: and that, but yeah, I think a lot of companies

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Speaker 1: are trying to figure out. I mean, most likely scenario,

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Speaker 1: in my opinion, is to have you know, binding agreement

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Speaker 1: in place for certain days of the week and then

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Speaker 1: they will ensure it's sort of even it evens out,

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Speaker 1: and then if you don't get Friday on Monday, and

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Speaker 1: I guess you're locked out. So, Steve, do you have

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Speaker 1: any sense or do Stuorte Bank have any sense at

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Speaker 1: this point as to what types of people would be

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Speaker 1: given this work from home opportunity. I would think they

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Speaker 1: would want their traders in, maybe their investment bankers in

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Speaker 1: every day. So it's just more of a back office

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Speaker 1: type thing. Yeah, I guess that's another important consideration, right, Traitors,

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Speaker 1: for compliance reasons and many other reasons, need to be

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Speaker 1: at their death in the office a lot of the time,

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Speaker 1: so it's likely that they may have only one day

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Speaker 1: or no days. Um, that's certainly something that is still

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Speaker 1: working on UM and uh in the same goes for

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Speaker 1: UM client facing people who travel a lot UM. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think we're mostly talking about the back office you're

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Speaker 1: aware of. Working from home is much less of an issue.

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Speaker 1: And then for the other stuff, so you know, not

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Speaker 1: that money companies have put out formal blueprints because nobody

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Speaker 1: knows who, nobody knows how long the pandemic is going

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Speaker 1: to last one, vaccines are going to be available, at

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Speaker 1: what point their workers are going to be able to

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Speaker 1: access vaccines and so on. Why do dot de bank

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Speaker 1: decide to do this now? Well, it's not it's not

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Speaker 1: a formal announcement, right, we booked the news. It's people

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Speaker 1: familiar U However, there are banks European banks who have

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Speaker 1: made sort of preliminary announcements. What they're planning is um

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Speaker 1: and they're ranging from twenty to fifty on Dutch banks

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Speaker 1: and said they will allow fifty percent of staff to

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Speaker 1: work from home. So I just think it's you know,

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Speaker 1: we've had a trial line of working from home since

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Speaker 1: the beginning of this year. They realize it's working well,

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Speaker 1: and now you know, you have to consider if you

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Speaker 1: want this to impact your policies. You have nieces in place,

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Speaker 1: if you want to reduce office space, you have to

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Speaker 1: start doing this now because it will play out over

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Speaker 1: a very long period of time. Also, you need to

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Speaker 1: talk to regulators about install on. If you don't make

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Speaker 1: a decision at some point, um, it's gonna just you're

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Speaker 1: gonna delay the whole implementation for a long time. So, Steve,

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Speaker 1: I wonder how much of this is really a cost

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Speaker 1: cutting move here. I mean, you know better than anybody

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Speaker 1: the difficulty that German banks have been dealing with four years,

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Speaker 1: especially now with this low and negative interest rate environment.

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Speaker 1: How much do you think that's playing into a cost

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Speaker 1: cutting costs on a long term basis. Yeah, you're absolutely right.

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Speaker 1: European banks and specifically German banks and Deutsche Bank have

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Speaker 1: a huge cost problem and I'm we want to prevent

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Speaker 1: sure that this is a very big consideration. But if

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Speaker 1: you know, they sort of for them, it's a win

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Speaker 1: win situation if it really does make staff happy. You know,

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Speaker 1: if you'll give your staff the opportunity to work from

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Speaker 1: home and they're happier about it and you can cut

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Speaker 1: costs at the same time, why not, right, I mean,

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Speaker 1: it works, it works. Well. What when there's a vaccine

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Speaker 1: that everybody can get access to and everybody is vaccinated

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Speaker 1: that wants to be vaccinated, and we've decided that this

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Speaker 1: pandemic is not a yearly thing that mutates, will we really?

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Speaker 1: I mean, does anybody really think we'll see any capitalist

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Speaker 1: country continuing with this idea for you know, the next

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Speaker 1: five and fifteen years and permanently. M that's yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's a crystal ball question. But I do think so.

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Speaker 1: I mean, all the banks are saying this has been

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Speaker 1: a sea chain for them. They now think work from

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Speaker 1: home is the new normal. They also say officers will

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Speaker 1: always be a place in important place for them. They

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Speaker 1: will never abandon their officers entirely. But I do think

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Speaker 1: there will be a mixed model. Uh. And now that

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Speaker 1: people have been working at home and their managers a

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Speaker 1: line managers real life people don't flack off at home

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Speaker 1: and productivity stays at the same level, then why not? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Do you think it will stay? So, Steve? Is this

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Speaker 1: when do you think we're gonna see some more news

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Speaker 1: out of maybe Deutsche Bank or some other banks. As

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Speaker 1: to announcements, I think I think there will be every

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Speaker 1: now and then there will be banks making announcement announcements

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Speaker 1: on this as they come to a conclusion what they

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Speaker 1: really want to have for set up. I'm not sure.

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Speaker 1: We don't know when Dutche Bank will make a formally

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Speaker 1: adopt out plan. It may still be a few months.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, you're some European bankers Upstad have

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Speaker 1: made that formal announcement, and I'm pretty sure others will

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Speaker 1: follow suit. Stephen Aaron's joining us there with a wonderful

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Speaker 1: story on Deutsche banks moving to a reduced workforce from

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Speaker 1: in house areas at least, and Stephen, of course covering

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Speaker 1: all of the woes of European banks over the last

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Speaker 1: several years. It doesn't seem to be getting all that

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Speaker 1: much better, but at least they've got something else to

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Speaker 1: think about for the moment. Stephen Aaron's they're joining us

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Speaker 1: from Frankfurt, Germany. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast.

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Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts

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Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm

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00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn. And Paul Sweeney I'm on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always

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Speaker 1: catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio