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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: You know, a lot of tech earnings this weekend. Next

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Speaker 2: remember Monday, all the way back to Monday. The world

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Speaker 2: was rocked by this deep Seek thing. It seems like

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Speaker 2: a lifetime ago.

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Speaker 3: A lifetime ago in an incredibly busy day for our

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Speaker 3: next guest, who I think was on.

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Speaker 2: Every hour exactly of the day, exactly, multiple times exactly,

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Speaker 2: Mandy sing singing around. Also he covers a technology space

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Speaker 2: for Bloomberger Intelligence. MANDI but a lot of earnings.

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Speaker 3: Let's go back.

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Speaker 2: One of the names that we didn't get to talk

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Speaker 2: about it I don't think at the time was Meta.

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Speaker 2: They put out some pretty solid numbers. This stop is

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Speaker 2: performing really well. What's the story at Meta?

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Speaker 4: I mean, look, this is a company that dominates the

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Speaker 4: social media ad space, growing top line at over twenty

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Speaker 4: percent and putting a lot of dollars in capex, and

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Speaker 4: the street seems to appreciate it. Despite the deep seek News,

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Speaker 4: which was a surprising part. I mean, they're actually taking

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Speaker 4: their opex guide up as well, and Capex they raised

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Speaker 4: prior to their deep seek News. And for me, the

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Speaker 4: real comparison here is with Microsoft. Microsoft if you read

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Speaker 4: the tea leaves hinted that this is the ear of peak.

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Speaker 4: Capex that they acknowledged the deep Seak development, and they

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Speaker 4: said they probably are thinking of, you know, taking down costs,

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Speaker 4: although they didn't guide to it, whereas Meta was like,

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Speaker 4: this is going to drive more demand for AI on

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Speaker 4: the inferencing side, and so we are doubling down. I mean,

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Speaker 4: they actually raised their opex guide, which did surprise a

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Speaker 4: lot of people relative to consensus.

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Speaker 3: Top of the earnings report. Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta Founder,

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Speaker 3: of course, we continue to make good progress on AI, glasses,

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Speaker 3: and the future of social media. I'm excited to see

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Speaker 3: these efforts scale further in twenty twenty five. Are you

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Speaker 3: likewise excited about glasses and AI? In the context of Meta.

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Speaker 4: The one line that stood out for me was this

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Speaker 4: is a make or break here for reality labs. Okay,

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Speaker 4: what it tells.

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Speaker 3: You They pour a lot of money to Reality Lab.

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Speaker 4: And they're still going to lose twenty billion, another twenty

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Speaker 4: billion dollars this year. So imagine how high the stock

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Speaker 4: would be if you put a you know, even a

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Speaker 4: fifteen times multiple on that twenty billion that they are losing,

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Speaker 4: mean the stock would be easily ten percent higher. But

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Speaker 4: the fact that he said this is make or break here,

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Speaker 4: which means this is not going to be a recurring

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Speaker 4: loss either this year this thing takes off, or they're

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Speaker 4: going to stop investing twenty billion dollars. And I think

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Speaker 4: so that's a positive for the market.

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Speaker 2: Google they report earnings, I think Tuesday. What do you

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Speaker 2: expect hear from them?

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Speaker 4: I mean the ad trends seem to be solid. That's

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Speaker 4: what Meta alluded to. Probably I think both Meta and

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Speaker 4: Google benefited from the TikTok uncertainty. Clearly the ad dollars

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Speaker 4: are moving away from TikTok as a platform, and I

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Speaker 4: think YouTube should show an acceleration and growth. So search

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Speaker 4: is where, you know, everyone is kind of cynical about

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Speaker 4: Google maintaining their ninety percent search.

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Speaker 2: So how do you think that plays out? I mean,

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Speaker 2: is ai chat GPT?

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Speaker 4: What is it?

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Speaker 3: When I go on my Google thing, it comes up.

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Speaker 4: As Gemini Gemini.

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Speaker 3: Is that a thing? Look?

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Speaker 4: I mean in the end, you know, the search market

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Speaker 4: is expanding because of generative AI. We will be searching

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Speaker 4: for more things because the prompts are all over the place,

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Speaker 4: so instead of going to Google dot com, they are

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Speaker 4: prompts everywhere where we can do searches. Now, Google's problem

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Speaker 4: is they have the ninety percent plus share, so I

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Speaker 4: think volume wise, there will be an impact on Google Search.

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Speaker 4: But what really is the big mode for Google is

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Speaker 4: the fact that they monetize you know, just twenty to

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Speaker 4: thirty percent of their queries. The rest are all free,

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Speaker 4: and they somehow have a way to combine all their

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Speaker 4: family of apps data where there's Gmail Maps, all the

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Speaker 4: other apps, and show you the most relevant ad which

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Speaker 4: is why you know their ad pricing is way above

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Speaker 4: everyone else. To my mind, that is a mode that's

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Speaker 4: hard to break. All these you know LLLM offerings are

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Speaker 4: subscription based. Nobody is really penetrating the you know or

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Speaker 4: hurting them on the ad site. Maybe Meta Meta said

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Speaker 4: they will get into search via their WhatsApp platform, so

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Speaker 4: Meta could be a competitor in search ad dollars, But

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Speaker 4: everyone else so far is kind of going with the

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Speaker 4: subscription offering. When it comes to LM searches.

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Speaker 3: The extraordinary ubiquity of Google Search is not new to

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Speaker 3: anybody who has a phone or a computer, but situated

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Speaker 3: for us in this moment where we have a new

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Speaker 3: administration two weeks in looming law charge is this Department

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Speaker 3: of Justice case against Google, speculation about Chrome being spun off.

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Speaker 3: What happens to all of that? How do you see that?

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Speaker 3: How does the company see that in the context of

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Speaker 3: this new administration.

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Speaker 4: So you're right, if there is one big risk out there,

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Speaker 4: it's that Department of Justice creates a case to divest Chrome.

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Speaker 4: And if that happens, I mean we're talking about an

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Speaker 4: easy ten to fifteen percent hit on search adrabic because

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Speaker 4: in the end, you know, on the desktop, they are

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Speaker 4: getting a lot of data through the Chrome browser even

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Speaker 4: though they're not charging for it. I mean, that's why

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Speaker 4: the search is so effective. So it will hurt them. Now,

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Speaker 4: our base case is, you know, the Department of Justice

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Speaker 4: will see the competition now for search, and there's no

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Speaker 4: way you can say Google is a monopoly. I mean,

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Speaker 4: look at all the competition we were just talking about

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Speaker 4: from LLLM players and so from that perspective, it's hard

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Speaker 4: to argue even though they may have had a monopoly

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Speaker 4: in search, but it's hard to argue they have it

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Speaker 4: now going forward given all the competition. So there will

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Speaker 4: be some remedies, probably the one that Google has suggested

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Speaker 4: from their side. Now, I don't know if the judge

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Speaker 4: you will accept or not. Is you know, the exclusive

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Speaker 4: arrangements they have with Apple to be the default platform,

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Speaker 4: and the payments they make to Apple and samsum. Maybe

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Speaker 4: that goes away, but actually that could help Google because

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Speaker 4: when it becomes a bidding mechanism, no one else is

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Speaker 4: going to bid twenty billion dollars to be that default search,

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Speaker 4: and so Google will still be the default search and

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Speaker 4: the twenty billion could be all gross smart Interesting.

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Speaker 2: All right, we've all had roughly four or five days

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Speaker 2: to digest this deep seak data that broke last weekend.

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Speaker 2: My amateur take is maybe at a headwind for chip

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Speaker 2: makers who sell all this stuff, but maybe a net

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Speaker 2: positive for everybody else.

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Speaker 3: How do you view it?

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Speaker 2: Somebody asked me the Cocktor party tonight, That's what I'm

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Speaker 2: going with.

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Speaker 4: Yes, I think that's a good take. The semiconductor guys

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Speaker 4: should be worried, especially on their training side. If you

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Speaker 4: were betting on scaling laws and data centers getting bigger

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Speaker 4: and bigger, you needed more power. You have to rethink

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Speaker 4: what happens now with deep seek talking about efficiency and

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Speaker 4: gains of almost thirty times compared to you know, what

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Speaker 4: the pricing was with the prior kind of set of llms.

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Speaker 4: But look, I think the biggest beneficiaries here are the

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Speaker 4: software companies. There is no doubt that cheaper LLMS helps

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Speaker 4: their margin. And that's why all the software companies, the

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Speaker 4: cloud guys that want to integrate this LLM technology as

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Speaker 4: an agent, they are the biggest beneficiaries. And we saw

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Speaker 4: a nice bit up this week on the cloud software names.

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Speaker 2: All right, you know this was a big week for tech.

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Speaker 3: I mean it is a different things, yeah, I.

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Speaker 2: Mean it changed kind of a little bit of the

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Speaker 2: narrative of this AI thing and intent. It's just not

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Speaker 2: straighten up into the right. There's you get to manage

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Speaker 2: some changes here. Mandepcheing, thank you so much for joining us. Mendepcheing,

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Speaker 2: Senior analyst Technology Bloomberg Intelligence, actually coming into the office

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Speaker 2: on a Friday, unlike his Unlike his bid management team,

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Speaker 2: which meils it in regularly.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch US Live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch US Live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Let's go back to the economy, folks. We have some

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Speaker 2: economic data out today. We had a lot of economic

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Speaker 2: data coming out really this week, and today's really focusing

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Speaker 2: on inflation that seems to be in Czech Simona Mokutam.

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Speaker 2: She is a chief economist at State Street. Simona, thanks

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Speaker 2: so much for joining us here. What did you take

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Speaker 2: away from today's inflation data.

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Speaker 5: Well, first of all, the reaction was a little bit

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Speaker 5: of relief because there is so much reason for anxiety

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Speaker 5: and concern and you know, so much uncertain deal around

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Speaker 5: what's coming through in terms of policy. So it's nice

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Speaker 5: to see that certain things are reliable and progressing along

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Speaker 5: the lines of what had been expected. Even more so,

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Speaker 5: it's not that you know, we had steady core PC

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Speaker 5: in December, but I think what I'm looking forward to

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Speaker 5: see is the resumption.

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Speaker 6: Of improvement in January.

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Speaker 5: And you know, what's what's nice to be able to

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Speaker 5: say is that even if you were to get a

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Speaker 5: really you know, significant month or month increase, hey the

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Speaker 5: worst since you know, March of last year, you would

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Speaker 5: still on a year on year basis yet to tenth improvements.

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Speaker 5: So we have not been there in a while. In fact,

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Speaker 5: the last time we had that improvement in year on

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Speaker 5: year data for CORPC was June. So that is a

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Speaker 5: good start to the year at least in that regard.

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Speaker 3: I want to pick up on something that our colleague

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Speaker 3: Averag Jersey brought up, and that is the read that

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Speaker 3: we got this morning on personal spending. I should not

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Speaker 3: it came in ato point seven percent survey was point

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Speaker 3: five And there's also revision to the last set of

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Speaker 3: data we got that was revised upward as well. What

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Speaker 3: does that strength that resilience and personal spending tell you

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Speaker 3: about the strength of the consumer? Yes, and also just

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Speaker 3: sort of what how it complicates the Fed's job you're

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Speaker 3: going forward?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think this also takes me back to the

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Speaker 5: GDP data we got a couple of days ago, and

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Speaker 5: there was a lot of peculiarities, peculiar behavior in some

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Speaker 5: of the components. One thing that really was striking was

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Speaker 5: this extraordinary strength in consumer spending. That frankly, it's a

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Speaker 5: little hard to reconcile when you look at the behavior

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Speaker 5: of a real disposal income which is not quite as strong.

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Speaker 5: And you've seen that this morning as well. You know

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Speaker 5: the price of that. You know, surging consumption is a

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Speaker 5: decline in a savings rate. So then you have to

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Speaker 5: ask yourself. You have the strength, but is it truly sustainable?

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Speaker 5: And I would say not at the pace that we've

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Speaker 5: seen over the last in Q four, So there has

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Speaker 5: something has to give. Maybe we are under counting, maybe

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Speaker 5: we're under measuring income. That has happened of course in

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Speaker 5: the PS, but as things spend, there is too much

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Speaker 5: of a divergence between income and spending to be convinced

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Speaker 5: that the spending is free continues.

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Speaker 2: So some one of the inflation data today again kind

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Speaker 2: of in line with the expectations. Yes, if I would

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Speaker 2: probably like to see it come down a little bit.

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Speaker 2: But there are concerns out there that maybe some of

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Speaker 2: President Trump's policies, namely terriffs and immigration reform, will have

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Speaker 2: an inflationary impact, a negative inflationary impact, higher inflation. Do

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Speaker 2: you subscribe to that?

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Speaker 5: I think directionally there is no question about it. You

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Speaker 5: are talking you know, a price shock via terris and

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Speaker 5: potentially a negative supply shop to the labor market that

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Speaker 5: could raise wages down the line. Between these two, I

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Speaker 5: would think that terriries have more of an immediate inflationary

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Speaker 5: impact just by their nature the ability to impose them

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Speaker 5: on you know, a short notice.

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Speaker 6: But we have to also.

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Speaker 5: Remind ourselves that by for you know, if by comparison

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Speaker 5: to other economies, the US is a large, diversified, but

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Speaker 5: actually fairly closed the economy, just about fourteen percent of GDP,

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Speaker 5: and we don't know what numbers we are talking about

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Speaker 5: in terms of terrifts, so something that's you know, reasonably

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Speaker 5: small number, it will not be a true make or

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Speaker 5: break for the inflation pattern. And also it's important to

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Speaker 5: see what happens to services. Right, we are talking terarriffs

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Speaker 5: on goods, but that's actually a small part of the economy.

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Speaker 5: What matters even more is what happens to shelter rent inflation,

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Speaker 5: and there the trend has been favorable.

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Speaker 6: Over the last few months.

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Speaker 5: I expect that to continue, so of course concern about

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Speaker 5: what may happen, but also a little bit of reassurance

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Speaker 5: that you have some upsetting positive developments in the service space.

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Speaker 3: You know, we have so much uncertainty, hear, when it

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Speaker 3: comes to to trade policy, we're waiting to see what's

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Speaker 3: put in place. In fact, if anything will be put

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Speaker 3: in place. Is we do have more awareness now of

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Speaker 3: the administration's immigration policies, and we've seen the uptick in

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Speaker 3: the way that all of these agencies have gone after

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Speaker 3: immigrants are in this country without documents. Do you have

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Speaker 3: a better sense now that we have seen that telegraph

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Speaker 3: through executive orders, as we've seen some action in terms

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Speaker 3: of policy action, that you can kind of think more

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Speaker 3: clearly about the effect I could have on the economy.

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Speaker 5: Frankly, not a whole lot more clarity than we you know,

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Speaker 5: we had a month or two ago. I think what

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Speaker 5: we are seeing is what we sort of expected to see.

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Speaker 5: There will be action on immigration, there will be deportations,

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Speaker 5: but again, as with everything else, the devils in the dtail.

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Speaker 5: So what exactly would be the cumulative number we are

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Speaker 5: talking about here? And so because I don't know, I

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Speaker 5: try to also focus on what I do know, which

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Speaker 5: is the reality that the US labor market today is

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Speaker 5: much closer to balance than it was two years ago,

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Speaker 5: if these policies were hitting, then I would have expected

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Speaker 5: more of an immediate inflationary effect. Today you're looking at,

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Speaker 5: you know, very low quits rate, very low average weekly hours.

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Speaker 5: So there is a sense that labor resources are not

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Speaker 5: necessarily so intensely utilized. There is no frauth in the

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Speaker 5: labor market, and that buys you sometime. At the same time,

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Speaker 5: you know, what is the speed of deportations. I don't know,

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Speaker 5: but it will take some time, I think, to truly

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Speaker 5: make a dent in terms of the numbers that we

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Speaker 5: are talking about. If you look at southern border encounters

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Speaker 5: since twenty twenty one, you know, eight point eight million,

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Speaker 5: it's going to take a long time to really make

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Speaker 5: a dent in that. So because of that, I still

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Speaker 5: subscribe to the view that short term I'm more worried

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Speaker 5: about cherrys from an inflation standpoint than immigration. Actually, medium

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Speaker 5: term there's a different conversation, And I speak to you

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Speaker 5: as an immigrant. We do need them, we do not need.

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Speaker 6: Those skills, so it does matter very much watch what happens.

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Speaker 5: But on a three to four months, even six months basis,

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Speaker 5: I think you're already going to see the wage.

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Speaker 2: Effect Simona, thank you so much for joining Usimona Mokuta,

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Speaker 2: chief Economs at State Street. Next time we're going to

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Speaker 2: ask her about what it's like to live in Radio Romania, that's.

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Speaker 7: Where she's from.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen

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Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: You're busy time down in Washington, DC for the Trump

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Speaker 2: administration as the transition continues. I want to get the

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Speaker 2: latest on that. Jen Flinton joins US head of US

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Speaker 2: Government Affairs for Invesco. Jen, let's talk about It's been

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Speaker 2: a busy week for some of the President Trent's nominees,

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Speaker 2: sitting in front of various Senate committees trying to get

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Speaker 2: a proof here. What have been the highlights this week

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Speaker 2: for you? It looks like we actually carried some of

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Speaker 2: the RFK junior hearing as well well as that for

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Speaker 2: Tulsei Gabbard. What are you making so far?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, that's right. So RFKJ Robert F.

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Speaker 8: Kennedy Junior is now having accomplished both the Senate Help

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Speaker 8: Committee and the Finance Committee.

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Speaker 6: It's going to take a committee.

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Speaker 8: Vote next week, most likely to advance him to the

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Speaker 8: Senate floor. Cash Patel as well for the FBI director,

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Speaker 8: and then of course Tulci Gabbard for the head of

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Speaker 8: d and I these hearings were the most controversial hearings

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Speaker 8: that we saw, and I think there's a question right now,

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Speaker 8: especially with Chelsea Gabbard's nomination, whether she can get out

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Speaker 8: of committee. And we still don't know, because this is

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Speaker 8: the Intelligence Committee, whether this will be a public vote

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Speaker 8: or whether this will be a private, behind the scenes

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Speaker 8: vote of the committee.

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Speaker 3: Well, all of this is unfolding. I imagine there is

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Speaker 3: work underway on what I think the President and many

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Speaker 3: of his economic advisors have said will be kind of

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Speaker 3: the primary focus for them in the year ahead, and

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Speaker 3: that is on getting this Trump era tax cutpill extended.

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Speaker 3: Where are we in that process and when do we

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Speaker 3: begin to get some indication of sort of what will

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Speaker 3: be in that what won't I know. There was that

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Speaker 3: meeting in South Florida where a lot of members of

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Speaker 3: Congress whose districts are affected by that cap on state

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Speaker 3: local tax deduction for instance, went down and tried to

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Speaker 3: lobby the president. Where are we in that process? When

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Speaker 3: do we get clarity on where it's headed?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, that's right.

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Speaker 8: So the House Republican Conference met in Doral, Florida, and

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Speaker 8: President Trump did talk to the group and sort of

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Speaker 8: outline all of the big things that he wants to do.

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Speaker 6: What they haven't yet decided.

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Speaker 8: On is how to go forward on the reconciliation instructions.

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Speaker 8: And that's a really key I know it's a process issue,

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Speaker 8: but it's a really key part of this process. They

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Speaker 8: have to pass a budget resolution with reconciliation instructions, a

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Speaker 8: joint resolution out of both the House and the Senate.

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Speaker 8: And right now the House and the Senate are divided

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Speaker 8: on the actual package, how big it should be, whether

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Speaker 8: there should be one or two, because it's possible under

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Speaker 8: the rules to do two reconciliation packages this year and

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Speaker 8: just a sort of step back. Reconciliation means that a

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Speaker 8: simple majority in the Senate can pass a major bill

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Speaker 8: out of the Senate, which is a big deal when

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Speaker 8: typically bills take sixty votes to get out of the Senate,

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Speaker 8: and there are rules around what can be included in reconciliation,

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Speaker 8: and it really has to do with having some sort

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Speaker 8: of revenue impact or debt impact. But they can do

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Speaker 8: big things, and as we saw in the past, that's

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Speaker 8: how TCGA passed.

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Speaker 6: Out of the first Trump administration.

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Speaker 8: And so they really expect to move forward on tax reform.

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Speaker 6: Before the end of the year.

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Speaker 8: The question is do they do one or two And

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Speaker 8: that really has to be decided for I think in

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Speaker 8: the House and we'll see that movement next week in

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Speaker 8: the Budget Committee.

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Speaker 2: Jen how do they plan on paying for whatever package

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Speaker 2: they do agree upon or does it even matter that

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Speaker 2: they tell us how they're going to pay for it.

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Speaker 8: Well, they have to decide on and that is going

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Speaker 8: to be sort of up to Senate Finance in ways

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Speaker 8: and means what the baseline is. And if the baseline

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Speaker 8: is current policy, then technically for the context of scoring

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Speaker 8: this bill, then they don't have to necessarily pay for

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Speaker 8: the extension of the current provisions of the twenty seventeen

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Speaker 8: tax bill the TCCHA, right, But there are other things

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Speaker 8: that Trump wants to do that President Trump really detailed

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Speaker 8: during the campaign and reiterated this week in Florida with

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Speaker 8: extending some sort of no tax on tips and no

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Speaker 8: tax on Social Security benefits and no tax on overtime

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Speaker 8: in common. Right, and so there are there's a real

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Speaker 8: expansion here that they're going to have to deal with.

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Speaker 6: It's going to cost money.

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Speaker 8: Yep.

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Speaker 2: All right, Jen, thank you so much for joining us.

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Speaker 2: Jen Flinton, head of US Government Affairs for Invesco, busy

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Speaker 2: times down in Washington, DC for the Trump administration.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Corplay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

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Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal.

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Speaker 2: All right, folks, your daily look at the front pages

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Speaker 2: around the world. Lisa Matteo newspapers.

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Speaker 3: What do you go for us today?

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Speaker 4: Okay?

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Speaker 3: Super Bowl around the corner, right.

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Speaker 7: You know, fans love their wings and their beer, but

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Speaker 7: guacamole is a big part of it. You gotta have

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Speaker 7: the quawk with the chips, okay, but now you might

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Speaker 7: have to pay more for it. And the reason they're

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Speaker 7: saying is because you know, we've been talking about President

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Speaker 7: Trump starting to possibly set off those first wave of

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Speaker 7: towers tomorrow, Canada and Mexico in the spotlight. So Mexico, yes,

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Speaker 7: supplies upwards of ninety percent of the avocados, all right,

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Speaker 7: so the prices could go up. There was a drown

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Speaker 7: in Mexico already shrank the crop to begin with. So

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Speaker 7: it has this like interesting take about is Mexico the

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Speaker 7: only place to get avocados?

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Speaker 3: Because that's what I started thinking.

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Speaker 7: I'm like, is that the only place to go get?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 7: So it says how Chipotle gets them from like Columbia,

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Speaker 7: Dominican Republic, A grocery chain by Kroger gets them from

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Speaker 7: Chili and Peru.

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Speaker 2: But everything a condo price is already up fourteen percent

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Speaker 2: this year.

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Speaker 3: Wow, do you make I'm not a qualk persone there?

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Speaker 3: You failed to bring it in, Yes, the broker studio.

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Speaker 2: So what's what's any secret to your gualk here?

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Speaker 7: No, I got the tomatoes, onions, the cilantro, a live

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Speaker 7: maybe little pepper, yeah, little garlic and er.

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Speaker 3: Yes, I'm such a glack person. But it is expensive.

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Speaker 7: I mean I get them, you know at the whole sales.

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Speaker 2: It's good by the grosser by the bag.

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Speaker 7: And then you got to kind of Lisia has away.

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Speaker 3: Refrigerators in the two freezers. What do you got as

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Speaker 3: getting avocados from Lisa's backyard? They yeah, but.

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Speaker 7: You can't get what are you going to switch to salsa?

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Speaker 3: I don't I'm a good person.

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Speaker 2: Ok yeah, all right? What else we got?

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Speaker 4: Right?

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Speaker 7: This is for you, Paul, because I know you love

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Speaker 7: Landman on Paramount right.

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Speaker 3: I have not yet watched it, but I've heard you

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Speaker 3: toouting it. Yes, I don't know what one is? Can

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Speaker 3: you define that for me? First? This is okay?

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Speaker 5: This is it?

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Speaker 2: And and by the way, there's a story in a

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Speaker 2: journal is totally not real. I mean it doesn't depict

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Speaker 2: it correctly.

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Speaker 3: Is the point.

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Speaker 2: But in the context of this show of the Landman

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Speaker 2: is the oil guy out in the oil patch in

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Speaker 2: West Texas that actually does it all. He manages all races,

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00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:51,120
Speaker 2: it does everything. Okay, keeps a local you know, Mexican

441
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 2: cartel gangs, you know.

442
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 3: So it's and you told me this has made you

443
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:55,200
Speaker 3: an expert.

444
00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 2: I'm an expert on the oil and gas basiness. But

445
00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 2: and it goes back to my point. Billy Bob Thornton,

446
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:02,080
Speaker 2: pound for pound, the best cursor on television.

447
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:02,639
Speaker 3: He's the best.

448
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 2: He curses better than anybody, you know. So anyway, that's

449
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:06,960
Speaker 2: my But.

450
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:09,520
Speaker 7: It's saying, how like the people of the real landmen,

451
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 7: like all their families are calling them and as saying

452
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:11,960
Speaker 7: are you okay?

453
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 4: Yes?

454
00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:12,959
Speaker 6: Like is everything?

455
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:13,440
Speaker 3: What do you do?

456
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:16,800
Speaker 7: Like they're calling them in a panic to see if

457
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:19,199
Speaker 7: they're okay. But they're saying, well, you know what, my

458
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 7: job's not that exciting. I really sit behind it. I

459
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:24,840
Speaker 7: look through contracts and real estate records.

460
00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, so this guy says his mondays are a little different.

461
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 2: He spends most of his time reviewing lease contracts. There

462
00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 2: you go, perusing real estate records and advising landowners on

463
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 2: how to deal with oil and gas companies that drill

464
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 2: on the property, all sitting behind an office desk.

465
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:40,719
Speaker 3: Apparently the amount of michelob ulture they drink or Michelob's

466
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:44,719
Speaker 3: light is accurate, ultra excuse me, it's accurate that the

467
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:45,400
Speaker 3: real landmen.

468
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 2: Okay, it's a tremendous product placement there for glob ultu.

469
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:50,920
Speaker 2: All right, what's next?

470
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:51,479
Speaker 4: All right?

471
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:53,320
Speaker 7: Lastly, this one, maybe you can help me out a

472
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:55,920
Speaker 7: little bit with the banker bonuses. They're saying that they're

473
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:59,160
Speaker 7: turning into this kind of scratch off ticket because stock swings.

474
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 7: Bonus is like come in these restricted stock units, so

475
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:05,159
Speaker 7: it can be unpredictable.

476
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:07,440
Speaker 2: And that this works okay in a good year, which

477
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 2: we're having many good years cash cash only. Don't even

478
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 2: talk to you about stock or rsues. Arny of that garbage.

479
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:16,040
Speaker 2: When we have a bad year or two and they

480
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 2: don't have the cash on hand, then maybe I'll entertain

481
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 2: taking some of this garbage. But I sell it all

482
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 2: the first second half, Yeah, first second invest The best

483
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:31,399
Speaker 2: trade I ever made was selling credit Swiss stock in

484
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:34,280
Speaker 2: December of two thousand and four, eighty seven Swiss francs.

485
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 2: Go take a look at where that is now zero

486
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 2: zero wown Swiss.

487
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 7: F See it's crazy because it's just so unpredictable.

488
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 3: But you're getting to that vesting process. There's actually a

489
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 3: very cool calculator embedded in the story where you can see, yes,

490
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:48,720
Speaker 3: the true value of your bonus years out.

491
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:49,120
Speaker 8: Yeah.

492
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,679
Speaker 2: My pvice to kids is don't and if you do

493
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:54,600
Speaker 2: take it, sell it as quis a can. That is

494
00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:57,160
Speaker 2: the newspaper segment with Lisa Matteo.

495
00:24:57,480 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 3: We appreciate that.

496
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 1: This is the Bloombergs or Aveillance podcast available on Apple, Spotify,

497
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

498
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the

499
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:15,639
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

500
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:19,040
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501
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:21,000
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