WEBVTT - Yellen Wraps China Talks; Israel Preps Future Operations; Total Eclipse

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm Nathan Hager and I'm John Tucker. Here are these

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<v Speaker 3>stories we're following today.

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<v Speaker 4>Man.

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<v Speaker 5>We'll have more on the markets John in just a minute,

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<v Speaker 5>but we begin with US China relations. Treasury Secretary Janet

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<v Speaker 5>Yellen has just wrapped up four days of talks in China.

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<v Speaker 5>For much of her trip, Yellen's been busy scolding China

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<v Speaker 5>about what Washington views as excessive investment in manufacturing to

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<v Speaker 5>make up for a troubled property sector and weak domestic demand.

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<v Speaker 5>But at a news conference this morning, Yellen said relations

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<v Speaker 5>between the US and China are improving.

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<v Speaker 6>It's undeniable that the US China relationship is on a

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<v Speaker 6>stronger footing today than this time last year.

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<v Speaker 5>Still, Secretary Yellen warren the US would sanction China's banks

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<v Speaker 5>and exporters if they help Russia in the war against Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 6>I reinforced that any banks that facilitate signific and transactions

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<v Speaker 6>to channel military or dual use goods to Russia's defense

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<v Speaker 6>industrial base expose themselves to the risk of US sanctions.

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<v Speaker 5>And Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced new talks will get

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<v Speaker 5>underway next week with a meeting between two US China

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<v Speaker 5>working groups in Washington.

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<v Speaker 3>And sticking with geopolitics, Crude oil is declining as we

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<v Speaker 3>start a new trading week. It's off a five month

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<v Speaker 3>high after Israel said it would remove some troops from Gaza.

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<v Speaker 3>Israel did say the forces would recuperate and prepare for

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<v Speaker 3>future operations, including an offensive. Von Rafa checking oil right now,

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<v Speaker 3>brand the international benchmark down sixty nine cents of barrel,

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<v Speaker 3>still above ninety ninety forty eight a barrel.

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<v Speaker 5>And John is Israel apparently regroups in Gaza. One of

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<v Speaker 5>President Biden's key allies in the Senate says the US

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<v Speaker 5>should not let up when it comes to weapons support.

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<v Speaker 5>Democratic Senator Chris Coons of Delaware made the case to

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<v Speaker 5>Fox New Sunday host Martha McCallum.

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<v Speaker 7>It's important that we cantinue to show strong support for

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<v Speaker 7>the defense of Israel, that we continue to support the

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<v Speaker 7>Iron Dome and other ballistic missile defenses that we've jointly developed,

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<v Speaker 7>and that we make it clear we will defend Israel

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<v Speaker 7>against any Iranian proxy attack or any direct asculiar One.

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<v Speaker 5>And Delaware Senator Chris coon said he disagrees with House

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<v Speaker 5>Democrats who have called for withholding weapons transfers until an

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<v Speaker 5>investigation is complete into the air strike that killed seven

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<v Speaker 5>World Central Kitchen.

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<v Speaker 4>Aid workers in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 3>And back here in the US, the day of the

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<v Speaker 3>total eclipse of the sun is finally here, and Bloomberg's

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<v Speaker 3>ad Backster reports it certainly caught the nation's attention.

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<v Speaker 8>The several minutes of daytime darkness will follow a path

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<v Speaker 8>up through Mexico, the US and in the Canada, depending

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<v Speaker 8>on where you are, three to four minutes for some

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<v Speaker 8>an economic bonanza. One of those places the northeast of

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<v Speaker 8>the US. New York Governor Kathy Hochel says, along with

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<v Speaker 8>all the glory, though, we are.

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<v Speaker 6>Warning everyone the roads can only handle so much and

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<v Speaker 6>works expecting a high high volume of traffic before and

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<v Speaker 6>after the event.

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<v Speaker 8>And of course the perfunctory warning by now don't look

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<v Speaker 8>at the sun without the correct protection. ED Baxter, Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 5>I guess it always bears repeating, Thank you, Ed. Now

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<v Speaker 5>we turn to the markets and the economy. Investors are

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<v Speaker 5>preparing for a busy week that includes infleetion data and

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<v Speaker 5>the start of the first quarter earning season. Last Friday's

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<v Speaker 5>jobs numbers exceeded expectations for a fifth straight month, reinforcing

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<v Speaker 5>the Fed's view of being patient about easing interest rates.

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<v Speaker 5>Here's Richmond FED President Thomas Barkin.

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<v Speaker 9>When the economy is as strong as it is, it's

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<v Speaker 9>hard to feel urgency on taking rates down. Are you

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<v Speaker 9>going to see a dramatic weakening in the economy as

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<v Speaker 9>I've suggested the demand pestmits might see, or are you

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<v Speaker 9>going to see strength three hundred fifty three thousand jobs

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<v Speaker 9>a month like we apparently saw last month.

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<v Speaker 5>Richmond FED chief Thomas Barkin's patient stance on rate cuts

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<v Speaker 5>was echoed by several more FED officials last week.

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<v Speaker 3>And former Treasury Secretary Lanry Summers says the surgeon March

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<v Speaker 3>payrolls illustrates that the FED is well. Often it's an

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<v Speaker 3>estimate of where the neutral interest rate is. He's cautioning

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<v Speaker 3>against any move to lower rates in June.

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<v Speaker 10>Saying we don't need to know what the neutral rate

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<v Speaker 10>is is like saying you should drive your car on

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<v Speaker 10>feel without looking at the speedometer. It is just a mistake.

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<v Speaker 10>There's no way to judge what policy is without knowing

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<v Speaker 10>what would be a neutral policy.

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<v Speaker 3>Former Transity Secretary Larry Summers, adding that the right thing

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<v Speaker 3>to do is quote stick where we are for considerably longer.

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<v Speaker 3>Here his full conversation with David Weston on the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 3>Wall Street podcast that's available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere

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<v Speaker 3>else you get your podcasts.

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<v Speaker 5>And definitely got to listen to the Wall Street Week podcast.

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<v Speaker 5>John Turning into company news, earning season kicks off this

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<v Speaker 5>week with financials, we get a pre you from Bloomberg's Charlie.

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<v Speaker 2>Pellett Friday, It's JP Morgan, Chase City Group, and Wells Fargo.

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<v Speaker 2>The reports come as US stocks trade near records Monamaha

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<v Speaker 2>jan Is, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones.

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<v Speaker 1>Broadly, our call on market leadership broadening beyond large cap

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<v Speaker 1>technology here in the US is driven by the fundamentals

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<v Speaker 1>around earnings growth we think will broaden this year beyond

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<v Speaker 1>just the large cap technology or growth parts of the market.

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<v Speaker 2>Also this week, we hear from Delta Airlines, Fast and

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<v Speaker 2>All and Constellation Brands in New York Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 3>All right, thanks Charlie, and turning overseas to Asia to

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<v Speaker 3>our exclusive conversation with HSBC CEO Noel Quinn. Quinn's hosting

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<v Speaker 3>the bank's three day inaugural Global Investments Summit in Hong Kong.

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<v Speaker 3>Despite a slowdown and continued economic concern in China, Quinn

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<v Speaker 3>tells Bloomberg that he sees opportunity in the mainland and

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<v Speaker 3>the broader region.

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<v Speaker 11>We've got a really strong wealth management business here in

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<v Speaker 11>Hong Kong. I want an equally strong wealth management capability

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<v Speaker 11>in mainland China, in Singapore, for US here and in India.

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<v Speaker 11>And what I really want is a platform of four

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<v Speaker 11>strong pillars of wealth management and in wealth management, I

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<v Speaker 11>include insurance, asset management, private banking, and therefore our acquisitions

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<v Speaker 11>are being tended to be acquiring products or distribution capability

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<v Speaker 11>in those markets.

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<v Speaker 3>HSBC CEO Nol Quinn also tells Bloomberg the bank continues

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<v Speaker 3>to perform extremely well across several areas as it readies

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<v Speaker 3>to report first quarter earnings later this month, and that

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<v Speaker 3>brings us to five oh seven on Wall Street. Time

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<v Speaker 3>down for a look at some of the other stories

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<v Speaker 3>making news in New York and around the world. We

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<v Speaker 3>say good morning to Bloomberg's Michael barn.

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<v Speaker 12>Good morning, John A. Scare a board at Southwest Airlines

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<v Speaker 12>jet taking off from Denver. Part of the engine cover

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<v Speaker 12>ripped off. Southwest flight thirty six ninety five. Euston bound

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<v Speaker 12>flight with one hundred and forty three people on board,

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<v Speaker 12>was forced to make an emergency landing yesterday. It was

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<v Speaker 12>diverted back to Denver International Airport just after takeoff. Pilot

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<v Speaker 12>Steve Ganyard spoke to ABC.

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<v Speaker 13>These lightweight aluminum coverings that you see are essentially like

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<v Speaker 13>the hood of your car. They allow mechanics to open

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<v Speaker 13>up the area around the engine itself for it, to

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<v Speaker 13>inspect it and to do maintenance on it.

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<v Speaker 12>The FAA is investigating the incident. President Joe Biden's alternative

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<v Speaker 12>student debt relief plan could forgive loans for as many

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<v Speaker 12>as twenty six million Americans. The far reaching initiative will

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<v Speaker 12>likely be tested by the same challenges in his original

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<v Speaker 12>program struck down by the Supreme Court. The measures would

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<v Speaker 12>apply to borrowers who meet certain criteria, including people whose

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<v Speaker 12>debt exceeds their original principal amount and those who qualify

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<v Speaker 12>for federal programs but have not been enrolled. Former President

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<v Speaker 12>Donald Trump says he will finally announce today when he

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<v Speaker 12>will announce on abortions and win they should be banned.

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<v Speaker 12>The announcement comes as Republican led states have ushered in

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<v Speaker 12>a wave of new restrictions following the Supreme Court's decision

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<v Speaker 12>to overturn Roe v. Wade in twenty twenty two. Meanwhile,

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<v Speaker 12>campaign filings indicate former President Trump is still far behind

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<v Speaker 12>President Biden in overall fundraising, but Trump got a big

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<v Speaker 12>boost over the weekend at a Palm Beach fundraiser. A

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<v Speaker 12>campaign official says a group of ultra wealthy donors helped

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<v Speaker 12>Trump rake in a whopping fifty million dollars from this event.

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<v Speaker 12>New York Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer says he has sent

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<v Speaker 12>a letter to the heads of Capitol I and Discover

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<v Speaker 12>with questions about a proposed merger that would create the

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<v Speaker 12>country's largest credit card company. Senator Schumer Warren the merger

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<v Speaker 12>could reduce competition and mean higher interest rates and bigger

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<v Speaker 12>fees for tens of millions of credit card customers.

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<v Speaker 14>This would be the largest credit card merger on record,

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<v Speaker 14>and usually when there's consolidation, the consumer pays the price.

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<v Speaker 12>Senator Schumer says lawmakers want to know about the potential

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<v Speaker 12>increase in fees and what it means for the marketplace.

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<v Speaker 12>Global news twenty four hours a day and whenever you

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<v Speaker 12>want it with the Bloomberg News. Now, I'm Michael Barr,

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<v Speaker 12>and this is Bloomberg. John.

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<v Speaker 3>All right, Michael, thank you, and time down for the

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<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg Sports Update. Damn for that. Good morning, John Steshower.

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<v Speaker 15>Good morning, Johnson. Stunning news from college basketball. Just as

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<v Speaker 15>Yukon and Purdue gets set to play for the national

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<v Speaker 15>championship tonight in Phoenix, John Calipari is said to be

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<v Speaker 15>finalizing a deal to leave his job as the coach

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<v Speaker 15>at Kentucky to take over at Arkansas. Calipari is sixty five.

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<v Speaker 15>He's in the Hall of Fame. He's been at Kentucky

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<v Speaker 15>since two thousand and nine, built up powerhouse there, although

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<v Speaker 15>they haven't had nearly that much success in recent years.

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<v Speaker 15>His team just lost in the NCAA's first round at

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<v Speaker 15>Arkansas Hill replays Eric Musselman, who just left to take

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<v Speaker 15>over at usc Calipari has said to be close with John.

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<v Speaker 15>I'm Tyson, a billionaire Arkansas booster and women's basketball Caitlyn

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<v Speaker 15>Clark was the season's top player, but South Carolina was

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<v Speaker 15>always the best team. In the game, Cocks capped a

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<v Speaker 15>thirty eight no season beating. Clark and I won the

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<v Speaker 15>championship game in Cleveland, eighty seven to seventy five. In

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<v Speaker 15>the final game of Clark's brilliant career. She scored thirty points.

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<v Speaker 16>Yeah, I'm sad we lost this game, but I'm also

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<v Speaker 16>so proud of myself. I'm so proud of my teammates.

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<v Speaker 16>I'm so proud of this program. There's a lot to

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<v Speaker 16>be proud of. But you know, there's gonna be tears.

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<v Speaker 16>It is sad that this is all over and this

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<v Speaker 16>is the last time I'm gonna put on an Iowa Jerseys.

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<v Speaker 15>Next stap the WNBA for her. Sunday wins for the

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<v Speaker 15>Mets Yankees, Nickson rangers the Mets three one at Cincinnati.

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<v Speaker 15>Sham and I and four relievers team on a three hitter.

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<v Speaker 15>The Yankees wrote at John Carlos Stanton thirty eight Grand

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<v Speaker 15>Slam to an eight three win at the Stadium over Toronto.

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<v Speaker 15>Yanks are now eight and two. Nixon Milwaukee trailed by

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<v Speaker 15>eleven and a half time, came back beat the Bucks one

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<v Speaker 15>twenty two to one. On nine Jalen Brunson scored forty

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<v Speaker 15>three Rangers at the Garden a four goal third period

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<v Speaker 15>of five to two win over Montreal. With four games

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<v Speaker 15>to go, Rangers have a three point leaders to try

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<v Speaker 15>to finish with the NHL's best regular season record. Devil's

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<v Speaker 15>lost in Nashville three too. The Nets lost at home

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<v Speaker 15>to Sacramento by thirty cel Thiks meat Portland. The Warriors

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<v Speaker 15>beat the Jazz, The Wizards lost. The Capital's lost in

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<v Speaker 15>overtime to Ottawa. Nationals and Giants both won. The Red

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<v Speaker 15>Sox beat the Angels twelve to two. They went seven

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<v Speaker 15>to three on their season opening road trip. John stasheh

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<v Speaker 15>Wear Bloomberg Sports, Johnny.

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<v Speaker 3>All right, thanks a lot, John, And futures indicate a

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<v Speaker 3>higher lower open on Wall Street down Futures down twenty six,

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<v Speaker 3>SMP Mini futures six points lower, the nansdeck futures down fourteen.

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<v Speaker 4>Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,

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<v Speaker 4>and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the

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<v Speaker 4>Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning up,

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<v Speaker 4>Nathan Hager.

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<v Speaker 5>We are seeing some modest losses in equity futures this

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<v Speaker 5>morning at the start of a very busy week, including

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<v Speaker 5>more inflation data, the start of first quarter earning season,

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<v Speaker 5>and a rate decision from the European Central Bank this week.

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<v Speaker 5>Let's get you set for the trading week ahead. We

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<v Speaker 5>are joined by Dennis Gartman, the chairman of the University

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<v Speaker 5>of Akron Indowment Investment Committee and the former publisher of

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<v Speaker 5>the Gartman Letter. Dennis, it seems like we just keep

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<v Speaker 5>pushing back bets on what the Fed is going to

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<v Speaker 5>do with interest rates this year, particularly after last Fridays

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<v Speaker 5>once again hot jobs report. Where do you see this

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<v Speaker 5>market going?

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<v Speaker 17>I have been modestly bearished, let's call it neutral to

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<v Speaker 17>slightly bearish of stocks for quite some period of time,

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<v Speaker 17>being surprised by the strength that we've seen in the

0:12:33.840 --> 0:12:37.400
<v Speaker 17>equities market. For a while, I thought it was almost

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<v Speaker 17>comically laughable that it was a month ago that the

0:12:41.240 --> 0:12:44.320
<v Speaker 17>consensus was we'd have four to five cuts in the

0:12:44.320 --> 0:12:46.880
<v Speaker 17>overnight SAD funds rate. Now we're down to one or

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<v Speaker 17>two cuts in the overnight said funds rate. I think

0:12:49.480 --> 0:12:52.120
<v Speaker 17>soon we'll be down to zero to one cut in

0:12:52.160 --> 0:12:54.120
<v Speaker 17>the overnight said funds rate by the end of the year.

0:12:54.559 --> 0:12:58.960
<v Speaker 17>Time shall tell, But stocks have I think acted a

0:12:59.000 --> 0:13:01.000
<v Speaker 17>bit heavy in the course of the past three or

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<v Speaker 17>four or five days. The decline that we saw on

0:13:04.320 --> 0:13:09.199
<v Speaker 17>Thursday was I think rather deleterious to the technical reformations

0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:13.360
<v Speaker 17>on the charts. So I have been call it quietly

0:13:13.400 --> 0:13:16.520
<v Speaker 17>bearish of stocks for a while. I've been overtly and

0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:19.520
<v Speaker 17>manifestly bullets of the gold market, which has made the

0:13:19.600 --> 0:13:23.480
<v Speaker 17>new highs and has acted demonstrably stronger. So I've been

0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:25.560
<v Speaker 17>buried of stocks and bullish of gold. And for the

0:13:25.600 --> 0:13:30.160
<v Speaker 17>past several weeks that's actually been a winning for operation No.

0:13:30.200 --> 0:13:33.280
<v Speaker 5>God to say being bullish on gold certainly has been

0:13:33.280 --> 0:13:35.400
<v Speaker 5>a winning bet for the last couple of weeks. Here

0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:38.319
<v Speaker 5>may how do you explain this run that we've seen

0:13:38.559 --> 0:13:41.400
<v Speaker 5>in gold. I mean, it's been trading in record territory.

0:13:42.000 --> 0:13:44.360
<v Speaker 17>It is in the record territories. It's made new new

0:13:44.440 --> 0:13:49.080
<v Speaker 17>highs this morning. And I blame, for lack of a

0:13:49.080 --> 0:13:52.280
<v Speaker 17>better term, I blame the strength upon on golden to

0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:54.360
<v Speaker 17>a central bank buying. We've seen a lot of central

0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:57.840
<v Speaker 17>bank buying, especially by the Chinese, excuse me, over the

0:13:57.880 --> 0:14:00.720
<v Speaker 17>course of the past several months, and that's begun to

0:14:00.760 --> 0:14:03.880
<v Speaker 17>take its toll. The public is now becoming a little

0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:07.480
<v Speaker 17>bit involved in the market, not dramatically, so it was

0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:09.640
<v Speaker 17>a little disconcerting to me to see the public of

0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:13.079
<v Speaker 17>buying a gold at costco, in buying bars at costco.

0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:16.680
<v Speaker 17>That's usually a sign when the public's in that we've

0:14:16.720 --> 0:14:19.040
<v Speaker 17>run as far as we're going to take any market,

0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:21.040
<v Speaker 17>But I think we've still got a little ways to go.

0:14:21.080 --> 0:14:24.560
<v Speaker 17>It's been central bank buying thus far, and expectations that

0:14:24.760 --> 0:14:28.040
<v Speaker 17>inflation has not been beaten back, that inflationary pressures are

0:14:28.080 --> 0:14:31.880
<v Speaker 17>still extant, and we saw that with the jobs report

0:14:31.920 --> 0:14:35.480
<v Speaker 17>on Friday and the increase in non farm payrolls and

0:14:35.960 --> 0:14:41.480
<v Speaker 17>the rather substance of strength in the earnings. So it's

0:14:41.520 --> 0:14:45.520
<v Speaker 17>been the central bank buying, and I think it has

0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:46.160
<v Speaker 17>far more to go.

0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:50.800
<v Speaker 5>Dennis, We've also been seeing a pretty strong run in

0:14:50.840 --> 0:14:54.520
<v Speaker 5>the oil market as well. How much does geopolitics play

0:14:54.560 --> 0:14:56.400
<v Speaker 5>into the market outlook?

0:14:56.400 --> 0:14:57.600
<v Speaker 2>And we got about a minute left.

0:14:58.040 --> 0:14:59.760
<v Speaker 17>First of all, I've been very bullish of gold or

0:15:00.120 --> 0:15:02.800
<v Speaker 17>of crude oil until about it three or four days ago,

0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:05.720
<v Speaker 17>when the term structure began to change. Normally, in a

0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:09.520
<v Speaker 17>bull market in crude oil on up days and down days,

0:15:09.520 --> 0:15:11.640
<v Speaker 17>the front month gains upon the second third, fourth, and

0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:15.360
<v Speaker 17>fifth contracts. Going back, the vaquidation widens, and what we've

0:15:15.400 --> 0:15:18.800
<v Speaker 17>seen is the market has gone higher, the vaquidation has

0:15:18.840 --> 0:15:23.640
<v Speaker 17>begun to narrow, which I think is disconcerting. So I

0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:26.680
<v Speaker 17>was quite bullish of crude oil and now I'm neutral

0:15:26.720 --> 0:15:29.160
<v Speaker 17>to slightly barish of crude oil. We'll see how the

0:15:29.200 --> 0:15:32.000
<v Speaker 17>term structure functions. But it's been a geopolitical circumstance that

0:15:32.040 --> 0:15:34.480
<v Speaker 17>has driven crude oil prices up, and I think a

0:15:35.040 --> 0:15:37.440
<v Speaker 17>lessening of problems in the Middle East will put crude

0:15:37.440 --> 0:15:40.560
<v Speaker 17>oil prices back down. So I have been bullish on crude.

0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:44.360
<v Speaker 17>Now I'm bearished modestly, so not dramatically so because of

0:15:44.360 --> 0:15:46.360
<v Speaker 17>the change in the term structure, which has always been

0:15:46.360 --> 0:15:48.880
<v Speaker 17>a leading indicator in the crude oil market.

0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:52.760
<v Speaker 5>All right, well, we'll see where commodities and risk assets

0:15:52.800 --> 0:15:54.920
<v Speaker 5>go as we make our way through this week. Thank

0:15:55.000 --> 0:15:57.640
<v Speaker 5>you Dennis, as always a Dennis Gartman there with us

0:15:57.680 --> 0:15:59.920
<v Speaker 5>this morning, the chairman of the University of Akron and

0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:03.360
<v Speaker 5>down An Investment Committee and the former publisher of the

0:16:03.400 --> 0:16:07.560
<v Speaker 5>Gartman Letter. This is Bloomberg Daybreak today, your morning brief

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