1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,040 Speaker 1: P and L is brought to you by proper Cloth, 2 00:00:02,120 --> 00:00:05,120 Speaker 1: a leader in men's custom shirts, with proprietary smart sized 3 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: technology and top rated customer service. Ordering a custom shirt 4 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,680 Speaker 1: has never been easier. Visit proper cloth dot com to 5 00:00:11,760 --> 00:00:19,920 Speaker 1: order your first custom shirt today. Welcome to the Bloomberg 6 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:22,599 Speaker 1: P and L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox. Along with my 7 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:25,759 Speaker 1: co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we bring you the 8 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 1: most important, noteworthy and useful interviews for you and your money, 9 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 1: whether at the grocery store or the trading floor. Find 10 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg P and L Podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud and 11 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:45,600 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. The President's phone the point of 12 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 1: much speculation and worry. Now we have a new worry. 13 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: President Trump is fond of using his Android phone, which 14 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 1: is not as well protected as some newer versions of 15 00:00:57,760 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 1: other phones. I want to bring in Nicholas Weaver, who's 16 00:00:59,920 --> 00:01:07,120 Speaker 1: a security researcher at the International Computer Science Center in Berkeley, California. UM. Nicholas, 17 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:11,640 Speaker 1: you wrote in a recent UH a recent column that 18 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:15,640 Speaker 1: you said that you would basically assign to your UH 19 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:21,119 Speaker 1: advanced graduate students the project of hacking into the President's phone. 20 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:25,480 Speaker 1: How how easy is it um, assuming it is a 21 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 1: Galaxy S three or S four, It is very straightforward, 22 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:32,639 Speaker 1: and it's for two reasons. First of all, that phone 23 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 1: has known vulnerabilities that you can just basically download and 24 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 1: to use one of those vulnerabilities, all you need to 25 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:45,199 Speaker 1: do is convince your victim with that phone to click 26 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:49,640 Speaker 1: on a link. And given the president's temperament, it's probably 27 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:52,560 Speaker 1: pretty easy to tweet something at him that would attract 28 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:56,400 Speaker 1: his attention and cause him to click. Well, why doesn't 29 00:01:56,440 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 1: they Why don't they just use them more secure phone, 30 00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 1: give him that function if you wants it, that outgoing function, 31 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:04,560 Speaker 1: and then pair back any of the any of the 32 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 1: incoming data. The problem is is what is his workflow. 33 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:13,079 Speaker 1: His workflow on that phone is he wants to take 34 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 1: phone calls off the book from his friends, and he 35 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 1: wants to tweet and read links. And so you could 36 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 1: build a more Trump resistant phone, but you'd still need 37 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:29,680 Speaker 1: to get him to cooperate in terms of switching over 38 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 1: to basically separate devices for his different roles. Well, so 39 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 1: let's talk about sort of the past precedent for this. 40 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:41,240 Speaker 1: I mean, what have previous presidents in the high tech 41 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 1: era done? Obama, who was a notorious BlackBerry addict just 42 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 1: broke down and used a government device, and um, he 43 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 1: joked about the morning process of no longer having his 44 00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 1: own personal device. What's the what's the drawbacks for them? Um? 45 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 1: In order to do a secure device, it's going to 46 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 1: be locked down and more limited. So let's say I 47 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:11,880 Speaker 1: want a phone that Trump can tweet on. I'm going 48 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 1: to want to remove the microphone and camera. I'm going 49 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:18,680 Speaker 1: to want to remove the cellular connectivity in GPS because 50 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:20,959 Speaker 1: I know he's going to carry it where he shouldn't 51 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:25,680 Speaker 1: and he's not going to want a device that's that crippled, 52 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 1: all right, So if he doesn't want that device, is there, 53 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 1: for example, another device that would do some of this? 54 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 1: For example, I know that there's something called the black phone. 55 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 1: What would what would that doesn't have the kind of functionality, 56 00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:44,640 Speaker 1: I guess, but what would be? Uh? What what would 57 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 1: be the advantages there? Well, the black phone and Boeing's 58 00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:55,040 Speaker 1: black type things, those are more locked down Android devices. Um, 59 00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 1: but it would be a new device for him. He's 60 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 1: very set in his ways on comfort level, and it's 61 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:05,720 Speaker 1: just a really hard problem to convince the boss to 62 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:08,840 Speaker 1: do things securely when he's used to doing things his 63 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 1: own way. So if this is a problem CSO's face 64 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 1: all over the planet. Well, so, so this is this 65 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 1: is my thinking right now, is that potentially, unless he 66 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:23,679 Speaker 1: were to remove the phone from the room during any 67 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:28,360 Speaker 1: confidential conversation, this could be a pretty pretty serious national 68 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:32,080 Speaker 1: national security concern. Is there anything to sort of contradict 69 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:37,239 Speaker 1: that that impression? No, And what's right is that he's 70 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 1: had this phone for months, and so the real question 71 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 1: is is not what is he doing now? Because looking 72 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:49,680 Speaker 1: at his Twitter feed, the staff seemed reasonably adept at 73 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:53,680 Speaker 1: keeping the phone out of his hands during working hours, 74 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:56,919 Speaker 1: since those working hour tweets seemed to be dictated to 75 00:04:57,000 --> 00:05:01,840 Speaker 1: an aid on a different device. But the problem is 76 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:06,120 Speaker 1: is he's had this phone for months, and we have 77 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:10,840 Speaker 1: to assume that that phone was compromised months ago. And 78 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:13,440 Speaker 1: so what needs to happen is people need to go 79 00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:18,359 Speaker 1: back and go, Huh, what conversations did I have around 80 00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:22,960 Speaker 1: the President elect at the time that I would worry 81 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:27,920 Speaker 1: if it got to Moscow, Beijing, Tel Aviv, Paris, or 82 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 1: any place else. Well, so Nicholas zooming out, Uh, you know, 83 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 1: there's been a lot of concern about the security of 84 00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 1: information among various government officials. We saw this with with 85 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:43,200 Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton and the and the d n C. I mean, 86 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 1: what's your impression of how secure the overall governmental system is. Well, 87 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:56,240 Speaker 1: those systems, in many cases are private. Um, the US government, 88 00:05:56,520 --> 00:06:01,599 Speaker 1: if it's classified, has really good protection. The US government 89 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 1: uses multiple layers of protection for classified data, and so 90 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 1: unless it's safe for all we know discussed in a 91 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:12,479 Speaker 1: marra Lago dining room, the protections are really good. The 92 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:16,560 Speaker 1: problem is with the U s government is the unclassified systems, 93 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 1: the stuff that's connected to the Internet, and that's just 94 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:25,600 Speaker 1: often such an attractive target. The other problem is personal devices. 95 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:30,040 Speaker 1: So let's look at that famous photo at maral Lago 96 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:34,600 Speaker 1: of a AID illuminating some briefing document with the cell 97 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:37,800 Speaker 1: phone camera. This was related to the missile launch from 98 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:42,160 Speaker 1: North Korea. Yes, so we had a whole panicked gathering 99 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:48,600 Speaker 1: and we saw photos of an AID illuminating a who 100 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:53,679 Speaker 1: knows what classified or unclassified document with a cell phone. Now, 101 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:57,560 Speaker 1: if this was a government phone, I think it's no 102 00:06:57,680 --> 00:07:01,279 Speaker 1: worse than having the conversation at marl Ago, where, for 103 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:04,480 Speaker 1: all we know, the Russians tip the weight staff better 104 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:09,600 Speaker 1: than Trump does. But if it was a private phone, 105 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 1: that person is still a high value target and the 106 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 1: private devices are nowhere near as secure. So as it 107 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:19,520 Speaker 1: was a personal phone, they might as well have just 108 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:22,880 Speaker 1: facts that document to Moscow in terms of trying to 109 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 1: do a damage assessment. Nicholas, I just curious if let's say, 110 00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:31,080 Speaker 1: one of the patrons at Mara Lago or in any 111 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:33,360 Speaker 1: public setting a meeting of any kind, not just with 112 00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 1: the president, but if there are mobile phones that are present, 113 00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 1: is it possible or is it How easy is it 114 00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 1: to hack into one and use them almost as a 115 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 1: listening device for everything that goes on in the room. 116 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 1: I keep thinking also of those home devices like the Alexa, 117 00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 1: the Echo and so on. It really depends on the 118 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:54,560 Speaker 1: device and the security model. So like, I use an 119 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 1: iPhone and I'm very happy because i know I'm not 120 00:07:57,480 --> 00:08:00,920 Speaker 1: worth risking a one point five million all or exploit 121 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:07,400 Speaker 1: to attack. However, if somebody's using a Galaxy Note or 122 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 1: a Galaxy three or Galaxy four and they know they 123 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 1: are a worthwhile target, they basically need to throw that 124 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:20,800 Speaker 1: phone in the trash because for that phone it costs 125 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:25,440 Speaker 1: basically nothing in terms of exploits. That just basically costs 126 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 1: having to take a little time to get that victim 127 00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 1: to click on a link. Thanks very much for taking 128 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:34,120 Speaker 1: the time to explain all of this to us. Nicholas Weaver, 129 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 1: security researcher at the International Computer Science Center, Berkeley University. 130 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:54,480 Speaker 1: Let's get a little bit more color on what exactly 131 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 1: happened with Kraft, heins and you Leaver at Hammond is 132 00:08:57,200 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 1: here with us UH he covers takeovers F four Bloomberg News, 133 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 1: and I just want to start with some questions. I've 134 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:06,680 Speaker 1: got a lot of questions. My first question is, so 135 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:11,319 Speaker 1: Kraft made this one billion dollar offer for Unilever, UH, 136 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:14,240 Speaker 1: but Uni Leaver spurned that offer, and yet we're still 137 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 1: seeing the gains persist in the shares. Can you why why? Well, 138 00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 1: it's a good question, I think for two reasons. I 139 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:26,200 Speaker 1: think one, this is not how Craftines intended this information 140 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 1: to come out. The rumor had started to get into 141 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:30,880 Speaker 1: the market. There was some speculation this morning, so they 142 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:33,520 Speaker 1: were forced by the UK Takeover panel to make a statement. 143 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:36,240 Speaker 1: I think behind closed doors they maybe would have tried 144 00:09:36,280 --> 00:09:39,360 Speaker 1: to increase the bid for Unilever and get Unilever to 145 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 1: to come to the table and then to negotiations. Isn't 146 00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:44,319 Speaker 1: it dead, Then it's not necessarily dead. I think there's 147 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:47,240 Speaker 1: opportunity for craftin's and obviously backed by three G, this 148 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:52,280 Speaker 1: very very ambitious and sort of deal loving Brazilian private 149 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:54,040 Speaker 1: ecuity firm. I think there's an opportunity for them to 150 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:56,280 Speaker 1: come back with a higher offer. It's unlikely that this 151 00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:58,640 Speaker 1: would have been their best and final offers. So I 152 00:09:58,679 --> 00:09:59,960 Speaker 1: think one of the things we were seeing in UNI 153 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:01,679 Speaker 1: do the stock right now is the market pricing in 154 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:04,120 Speaker 1: a very good chance that this is not end game 155 00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:06,240 Speaker 1: and that three G, you know, in the form of 156 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:08,200 Speaker 1: craft himes, come back to the table and try and 157 00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 1: get this thing done well Kraft heinds, as statement specifically said, 158 00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 1: and I'm quoting here, we look forward to working to 159 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:17,160 Speaker 1: reach agreement on the terms of a transaction. So in 160 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:20,480 Speaker 1: other words, they're still interested. This is just the opening 161 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:22,920 Speaker 1: salvo and we see where it goes from here. I mean, 162 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:25,560 Speaker 1: you're know leaver her talking about the you know, the 163 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:28,439 Speaker 1: the deal undervaluing the company. I mean that's sort of 164 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:32,280 Speaker 1: classic takeover speak for give us more money and maybe 165 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 1: we'll come around. Well, but it's interesting to me that 166 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:36,360 Speaker 1: craft shares are up to so in other words, the 167 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:39,600 Speaker 1: market thinks that even if Craft were to offer a 168 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:43,240 Speaker 1: higher amount, that that's still it would be worthwhile to 169 00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 1: be a creative right. And and look, this is this 170 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 1: is a very good point that speaks exactly to the 171 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 1: three G business model, which is they acquire companies to 172 00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 1: go out, they get scaled, and they essentially make money 173 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:56,320 Speaker 1: off of them by cutting costs in an extremely aggressive, 174 00:10:56,360 --> 00:10:58,280 Speaker 1: almost a sort of barbaric way where they'll go in 175 00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:00,600 Speaker 1: and they will fire a ton of people, the scale 176 00:11:00,640 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 1: back on every single small item they can to make 177 00:11:03,320 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 1: you know, cost savings, so that the market is looking 178 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:07,280 Speaker 1: at this and saying, well, look, you're going to put 179 00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:09,959 Speaker 1: together a company that is worth a hundred fourteen billion 180 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 1: dollars with a company that they're going to pay upwards 181 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:13,960 Speaker 1: of a hundred forty billion dollars four and you're going 182 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:18,560 Speaker 1: to have this monster, monster sort of consumer products food business, 183 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 1: and they're going to extract some huge cost savings from it, 184 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:22,880 Speaker 1: just because that is what their model is. You saw 185 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:24,960 Speaker 1: them do it with Burger King and Tim Horton's. They 186 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 1: obviously did it when they put Craft and Hinds together. 187 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:28,839 Speaker 1: They're doing it at the moment when they're in this 188 00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 1: merger with ant Busch in Bev and s A P. Mayonnaise. 189 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 1: That's what I was going to tell you about mayonnaise, 190 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:39,520 Speaker 1: because if this deal does go through, you'll have Hellman's 191 00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:44,079 Speaker 1: mayonnaise along with Heinz Ketchup and Mama. Yeah. Well that 192 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:47,959 Speaker 1: was I know right. It's all on the go ahead, Dave. 193 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 1: A big deal for the Brits, not so much for 194 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:53,520 Speaker 1: the Americans. Well, now, the name that hasn't come up 195 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 1: yet is Warren Buffett. Berkshire has behind three absolutely, and 196 00:11:57,760 --> 00:11:59,559 Speaker 1: you've got to bear in mind I was just looking 197 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 1: for the nos Berkshire under the third quarter of about 198 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 1: eighty five billion dollars of cash. So what it means 199 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:09,880 Speaker 1: is that three G, through their support from Berkshire, has 200 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:13,400 Speaker 1: a lot of firepower to go after a company as 201 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:16,760 Speaker 1: big as Uni Leaver and bear in mind, this offer 202 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 1: as it stands is the fourth largest ever made for 203 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:25,640 Speaker 1: any company worldwide, only a O L Time Warner Votus 204 00:12:25,679 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 1: Phone MONISMN and Fightser's failed bid for Alegant or bigger. 205 00:12:29,679 --> 00:12:31,480 Speaker 1: Those of the kind of stakes we're talking about, Ed, 206 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:33,520 Speaker 1: real quick, How big could this get? What are you 207 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:36,520 Speaker 1: hearing it could obviously go up a little bit from here. 208 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 1: But I think one thing to note on this this 209 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:40,680 Speaker 1: buy union of three g war in Buffer is that 210 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,600 Speaker 1: they do not overpay for stuff. They're quite rigid on 211 00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:45,439 Speaker 1: price and and they obviously are not gonna want to 212 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:46,719 Speaker 1: go in with a huge number and then have to 213 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:48,440 Speaker 1: extract a much cost. I think the real issue here 214 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:50,080 Speaker 1: is what it would mean for Union Leaver in terms 215 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 1: of employment. This company has some of the hundred seventy 216 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:55,560 Speaker 1: thousand employees worldwide, and you can bet that if this 217 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 1: merger was to be consummated, a lot of those people 218 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 1: would would see their jobs go. We're to follow this 219 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:02,360 Speaker 1: and we want to thank you for keeping us up 220 00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:05,280 Speaker 1: to date. Ed Hammond on you know, Leaver turning down 221 00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 1: a craft Hens takeover approach. Thank you very much, Thanks 222 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:21,360 Speaker 1: to Dave Wilson, Bloomberg Stocks, calmnesst, P and L. Is 223 00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:23,640 Speaker 1: brought to you by proper Cloth, the leader in men's 224 00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:27,160 Speaker 1: custom shirts. 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The 232 00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:04,200 Speaker 1: US Leading Economic Index increased again in January, pointing to 233 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:07,600 Speaker 1: a positive economic outlook in the first half of this year. 234 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:10,959 Speaker 1: Here to tell us more is I can Goldstein can 235 00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:14,640 Speaker 1: of course economist with the conference board. Here to tell 236 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:17,560 Speaker 1: us more can thanks for being where This has always 237 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 1: an increase, a jump, and it is described perhaps as 238 00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 1: being a sharp increase zero point six percent higher. Tell 239 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 1: us about the details. Sharp increase for a second straight month. 240 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:32,120 Speaker 1: The Coincident Index, that's the one that tells us where 241 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:35,080 Speaker 1: we are right now, that continues to sort of move along, 242 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 1: creep along, um, you know, not not very strongly. But 243 00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:40,960 Speaker 1: this is the second straight month that we've got a 244 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:44,040 Speaker 1: real strong push and turns the lead index, which is 245 00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:46,520 Speaker 1: a signal about where we might be going. So we 246 00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:50,560 Speaker 1: already start with a strong consumer market, strong housing. Maybe 247 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:54,120 Speaker 1: this is suggesting either trade and or investment might begin 248 00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:57,080 Speaker 1: to start to kick in this ring. Maybe you know, 249 00:14:57,440 --> 00:15:01,280 Speaker 1: earlier this morning, Jeff Rosenberg fixing come strategists at black 250 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 1: Rock was on Bloomberg Television and he was talking about 251 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 1: how the bond markets right now are wrong in his opinion, 252 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:11,680 Speaker 1: and that they are not adequately pricing in the upsurge 253 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:16,000 Speaker 1: that we are seeing in inflation prospects. Do you agree, Oh, 254 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 1: the bond market has been under pricing for a couple 255 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 1: of years, so this is not anything new. But but 256 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:26,680 Speaker 1: what indicator in here in this report might point to 257 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:30,680 Speaker 1: Jeff's point, which is that that that that it's going 258 00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:33,200 Speaker 1: to be caught off guards. In other words, it's been wrong. Uh, 259 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:34,840 Speaker 1: and yet it's been wrong for a long time, so 260 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:37,720 Speaker 1: people could say, well, it's actually been right. The flip 261 00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 1: side is at what point does this hit the hit 262 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 1: the wall? See, this is exactly the question because it 263 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:45,720 Speaker 1: isn't just this sector. This isn't just manufacturing or just 264 00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:49,280 Speaker 1: consumer or just labor. It really is the different you know, 265 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:53,240 Speaker 1: pulse beats in the different pieces of the overall economy, 266 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 1: either by industry or by region, are all suggesting that 267 00:15:57,160 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 1: the pace of activity will at least steady or pick 268 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:04,320 Speaker 1: up as we move into the spring, move into the summer. 269 00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:07,360 Speaker 1: The bond market is not fully picking that up. Hasn't 270 00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:09,680 Speaker 1: been for a couple of years, and so the bond 271 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 1: market in fact might be caught, you know, dragging its 272 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:15,320 Speaker 1: heels at the same time that the stock market might 273 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:17,960 Speaker 1: be peaking well. The bond market, you do have to 274 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 1: add that it has been artificially uh, I don't even 275 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:25,800 Speaker 1: know not you know, help right influenced, I want to say, 276 00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:28,080 Speaker 1: because of the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and 277 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:30,480 Speaker 1: a variety of other things. So sometimes it's difficult to 278 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 1: even call that, um, you know, natural market. I want 279 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:35,520 Speaker 1: to go into a little bit of detail on the 280 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:38,120 Speaker 1: report because I was looking at two items. One was 281 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 1: average average weekly initial claims, plus I was also looking 282 00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:46,680 Speaker 1: at building permits. Tell us about those two areas well. 283 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:50,240 Speaker 1: Claims you know, I have moved down lower than we've seen. 284 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 1: I think these are lower numbers, and we've seen in 285 00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 1: two decades the housing starts and housing permits they move 286 00:16:57,160 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 1: up and down one month, you know, or you know, 287 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:04,000 Speaker 1: they fluctuated lot, but they're moving up steadily. And even 288 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 1: with that, building supply is below demand, so that there's 289 00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:13,240 Speaker 1: more room for housing to continue. So that, as I say, 290 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 1: both the consumer market and housing they were already doing 291 00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 1: better than good they're above average in terms of growth. 292 00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:22,560 Speaker 1: Maybe that's going to finally lead some support to the 293 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 1: rest of the economy, specifically trade or capex. So at 294 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:29,680 Speaker 1: what point will we be able to see the pickup 295 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 1: in inflation enough to cause a disruption in markets. It's 296 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:35,160 Speaker 1: not a pickup in inflation, in the fact, we might 297 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:37,680 Speaker 1: not see that, and it's a pickup in growth, so 298 00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:40,800 Speaker 1: that you want to look at manufacturing, you want to 299 00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 1: look at at signals about business investment, you want to 300 00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:45,119 Speaker 1: look at trade. But so if you said it's not 301 00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:48,080 Speaker 1: about inflation, so we could get sort of the steady 302 00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:51,640 Speaker 1: inflation rate that we've seen for a longer period of time, 303 00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:54,360 Speaker 1: even as growth picks up, Oh absolutely, I mean we're 304 00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:56,800 Speaker 1: close now to about a two and a pcent rate 305 00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:59,600 Speaker 1: of growth in terms of inflation. In terms of wage growth, 306 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:02,199 Speaker 1: maybe that might move up to three. It might not 307 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 1: even move up that much. It certainly isn't gonna move 308 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:07,240 Speaker 1: up more than that. So that inflation isn't and hasn't 309 00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:09,720 Speaker 1: been the problem. The problem really has been how do 310 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:12,960 Speaker 1: we goose up growth specifically, how do we get more 311 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:14,760 Speaker 1: out of manufacturing, how do we get more out of 312 00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 1: business investment, how do we get more at a trade 313 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:21,520 Speaker 1: and it there's at least a chance that there's enough 314 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 1: growth going on, there's enough demand going on to finally 315 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,600 Speaker 1: force business to move in those kinds of directions. Maybe 316 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 1: I can as an economist, I'm gonna pull you out 317 00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:32,239 Speaker 1: of your your your comforts on just a little bit. 318 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:33,760 Speaker 1: I want to get your thoughts on interest rates. You 319 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 1: think the Fed is going to raise two three four 320 00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:39,080 Speaker 1: times this year? Yes, to three or four? I knew 321 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:41,080 Speaker 1: that was that was the economist joke. What do you 322 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:43,960 Speaker 1: think not only two or three or maybe even four 323 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 1: this year, but another two or three next year. We 324 00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:48,520 Speaker 1: know that they want to get to about a three 325 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 1: percent rate for the short end of the Yeld curve, 326 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:53,320 Speaker 1: about four and a half five at the long end, 327 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:55,399 Speaker 1: and they're finally going to start to move that. The 328 00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:58,919 Speaker 1: biggest anchor is not what does or does not happen 329 00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:02,320 Speaker 1: in the States. The biggest anchor is how low, even 330 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 1: how negative interest rates are elsewhere. So there's a little 331 00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:07,760 Speaker 1: bit of balance here between what we're doing and what's 332 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:10,280 Speaker 1: going on elsewhere in the globe. Do you think that 333 00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:13,120 Speaker 1: the U. S economy is strong enough to withstand three 334 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:18,280 Speaker 1: four rad hikes this year? Oh, easily, easily, and and 335 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:21,080 Speaker 1: what tells us that is there is this momentum that 336 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:24,280 Speaker 1: is building in terms of either this is a two 337 00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:27,480 Speaker 1: month plateau in terms of the YELI turns the leading index, 338 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:31,120 Speaker 1: or there's momentum that has been it has been building 339 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:33,720 Speaker 1: for some time. It's starting to finally show up. And 340 00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:36,280 Speaker 1: the surprise is that it took this long to show up, 341 00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:38,159 Speaker 1: not that it's showing up. Thank you so much for 342 00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:42,679 Speaker 1: joining us, Ken Goldstein, really interesting discussion economist with the 343 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:59,000 Speaker 1: conference board talking about the leading indicators. Matt Miller, who 344 00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:02,680 Speaker 1: is our Bloomberg Tell Levision uh and Bloomberg News correspondent, 345 00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:06,199 Speaker 1: is at the Munich Security Conference. Matt was wearing a 346 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:10,160 Speaker 1: hat that in the rain earlier today reporting on what 347 00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:13,560 Speaker 1: he was hearing. Matt, thank you so much for joining us. Now, so, 348 00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:17,199 Speaker 1: what what's been the biggest headline that you've experienced at 349 00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:22,359 Speaker 1: the Munich Security Conference? Well, um, so far, it's interesting 350 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:25,040 Speaker 1: to ask all the world leaders who walk past whether 351 00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:27,560 Speaker 1: or not they think the White House has lost credibility 352 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 1: and what their expectations are as far as um the 353 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:35,280 Speaker 1: US supporting NATO, especially in regards to any kind of 354 00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:38,880 Speaker 1: Russian conflict. Most of the people that I've asked and said, Look, 355 00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:41,520 Speaker 1: we're here to find out the answer to those questions, 356 00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:43,720 Speaker 1: so we can't give you our answer just yet. It's 357 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:46,639 Speaker 1: really a wait and see kind of thing. UM. So 358 00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:49,879 Speaker 1: it's been very interesting to see that everyone from the 359 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:53,119 Speaker 1: most important leaders I speak to, to UM to the 360 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:56,960 Speaker 1: soldiers walking around this conference really just want to hear 361 00:20:57,040 --> 00:20:59,919 Speaker 1: what the U. S position is on Russia, especially as 362 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 1: relates to Ukraine. Well, you've got the secred is the 363 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,520 Speaker 1: Secretary of State? Is he at this meeting, Rex Tillerson? 364 00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:10,360 Speaker 1: Because I know Maddis, James Maddis and John Kelly they 365 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:14,679 Speaker 1: are attending, as well as Vice President uh, Mike Pence. 366 00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 1: But I thought that maybe it was Rex Tillerson. Is 367 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:22,080 Speaker 1: he he's there as well. I I have seen General 368 00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:24,960 Speaker 1: Maddie walking around, although I was corrected and told he 369 00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:28,520 Speaker 1: is now to be addressed as Secretary of Maddis. Um. 370 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:32,320 Speaker 1: I'm not sure which one is is better, but um, no, 371 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:36,240 Speaker 1: Rex Tillerson is not here. UM, But we do obviously 372 00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:40,160 Speaker 1: expect Mike Pence tonight, so and and Rex Tillerson. Tim, 373 00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:42,040 Speaker 1: I'm sure you're referring to the comments that he made 374 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:45,719 Speaker 1: in Bonn yesterday has said he expects Russia to uphold 375 00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:49,399 Speaker 1: its commitments to the mint Minsk Agreement. Um, it'll just 376 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:52,359 Speaker 1: be interesting to see it. Pence is um supportive of 377 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 1: that as well when he gets here tonight. And I'm 378 00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:57,719 Speaker 1: actually just about to speak to the President of Lithuania. 379 00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:00,760 Speaker 1: So that'll be an interesting interview because Donald Trump wrote 380 00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:04,640 Speaker 1: a letter to her last week saying that he does 381 00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,399 Speaker 1: support Um, well, he supports let's put it this way, 382 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:10,359 Speaker 1: it's gonna sound strange, he supports her support of the 383 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 1: Ukraine as an independent and sovereign nation. Well, um, and 384 00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:15,600 Speaker 1: just sort of to your point of that, people are 385 00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:18,240 Speaker 1: waiting to hear from the US and get there get 386 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:22,679 Speaker 1: its position on national security issues. Is there anything else 387 00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:24,560 Speaker 1: that sort of come out that's a little bit more 388 00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:27,919 Speaker 1: definitive than just waiting for Vice President Pence to speak 389 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:31,760 Speaker 1: or get more color around our policies here. So, so 390 00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:34,920 Speaker 1: I was asking a lot of people this morning whether 391 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:37,399 Speaker 1: or not they think the White House has lost credibility 392 00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:42,360 Speaker 1: because of this Mike Flynn resignation. And I spoke with 393 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:47,960 Speaker 1: John McCain, Senator John McCain UM as well as UM 394 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:50,280 Speaker 1: a couple of the other senators who are walking in 395 00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:52,879 Speaker 1: and asked them, hey, do you think that Mike Pence 396 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:57,760 Speaker 1: has lost credibility because um he you know, gave misinformation 397 00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:01,360 Speaker 1: as far as the contact with with our Russian allies. 398 00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:05,439 Speaker 1: And Senator McCain said, he didn't, you know, give misinformation, 399 00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:09,119 Speaker 1: He was given misinformation. He didn't miss lead, he was misled. 400 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,800 Speaker 1: Uh so appearing to support and the Vice President tent 401 00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,560 Speaker 1: on his way into this conference. Hey man, I'm wondering 402 00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:17,080 Speaker 1: if you could tell us a little bit about the 403 00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:21,560 Speaker 1: Russians and the feeling about Russia's power. I mean, we 404 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:24,359 Speaker 1: just got a report that Russian fighter jets had buzzed 405 00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:26,879 Speaker 1: the US worship in the Black Sea. You got the 406 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:29,000 Speaker 1: report that Finland is going to boost its army by 407 00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:32,600 Speaker 1: over because of heightened tensions with Russia. Your schedule to 408 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,280 Speaker 1: speak with the President of Lithuania. Give us the details 409 00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:38,480 Speaker 1: if you can. I mean, well, as far as the 410 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:41,119 Speaker 1: buzzes of the work, you know, uh well, as a 411 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:44,879 Speaker 1: names man that military men often do these kinds of 412 00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:47,159 Speaker 1: shows of bravado, and it's that's not the kind of 413 00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:53,640 Speaker 1: thing that's ever probably gonna completely stop interest in Russia's position. 414 00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:57,919 Speaker 1: And let's say that the two most highly regarded guests 415 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 1: here other than Mike Pener and he had a arrived 416 00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:04,040 Speaker 1: are um president por Shanko from the Ukraine and Sergey Labor. 417 00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:08,240 Speaker 1: Everyone media pool at least has been following those two 418 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:13,080 Speaker 1: around um you know, uh, putting, putting down their every 419 00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,640 Speaker 1: move and just watching to see if we get any 420 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:20,359 Speaker 1: hint of whether or not there's capitulation of Russians or 421 00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,840 Speaker 1: a little bit more confidence on the side of Ukraine. 422 00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:26,640 Speaker 1: Can we just get your thoughts on not a completely 423 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:31,240 Speaker 1: different topic, GM selling its European operations to p s 424 00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:35,679 Speaker 1: A to Pugeau. Yeah, this is fascinating. I was in 425 00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:38,920 Speaker 1: Russell time yesterday right outside of Frankfurt, which is where 426 00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:43,680 Speaker 1: um Opal has its main factory. The Germans initially were 427 00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 1: very unhappy about the way they found out about this deal. 428 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:50,000 Speaker 1: I'm talking about Anglo America on her cabinets, not thrilled 429 00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:51,800 Speaker 1: with the fact that they had to find out that 430 00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,040 Speaker 1: the fact that Kim wanted to sell to the show 431 00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:59,239 Speaker 1: from a Bloomberg scoop on I believe late day. So 432 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:03,880 Speaker 1: that uh that aside. Um, it seems that they've kind 433 00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 1: of come around with possibility that every years have been 434 00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:11,440 Speaker 1: slightly charmed married bar It. She flew here right after 435 00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:15,480 Speaker 1: this uh cross star wire, and so it may be 436 00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:17,800 Speaker 1: a little bit closer to a deal now we're here. 437 00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:22,919 Speaker 1: Thursday might be Wait, we're losing you in this field. 438 00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:26,640 Speaker 1: All right, let's we're gonna Matt Miller, thank you very much, 439 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:29,240 Speaker 1: reporting from Munich, giving us an update on that G 440 00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:31,959 Speaker 1: twenty meeting, and also a little bit of color on 441 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:34,159 Speaker 1: General Motorists and p S a group. You know, the 442 00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:37,920 Speaker 1: valuation I believe what is it about two billion dollars 443 00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:41,399 Speaker 1: billion dollars right now, the valuation of opal uh in 444 00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:45,160 Speaker 1: this deal that that GM is talking about with PS 445 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:49,320 Speaker 1: like half in cash and half half in liabilities, right, 446 00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:51,960 Speaker 1: so probably will be some debt issuance if this goes through. 447 00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,240 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. 448 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:04,280 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at iTunes, SoundCloud, 449 00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:08,679 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm 450 00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,640 Speaker 1: out there on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm out there 451 00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:14,960 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. 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