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Speaker 2: We're going to turn to China right now in a
Speaker 2: very important trip for Janet Yellen, her second and nine
Speaker 2: months to China. It's going to be followed by a
Speaker 2: trip by the Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, and as
Speaker 2: we try to get a sense of following the readouts
Speaker 2: and some of the other information that we've seen, try
Speaker 2: to get a sense of what came of this trip.
Speaker 2: We want to connect with Craig Singleton and have been
Speaker 2: looking forward to this conversation with us from the China
Speaker 2: program at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, where
Speaker 2: he is Senior director. Craig, it's great to see you.
Speaker 2: You can read the readout, you can read the news
Speaker 2: coverage and get different percent I want yours. Was this
Speaker 2: a productive trip for Janet Yellen? And if so, what
Speaker 2: do we get for it?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 4: No, thanks, Joe. I mean I think the short answer
Speaker 4: is that Secretary Yellen's trip accomplished very little. Secretary Yellen
Speaker 4: is many things, chief among them, and accomplished I think,
Speaker 4: respected economists, but she's not an enforcer, you know, She's
Speaker 4: not the person you send in when you want to
Speaker 4: throw down the hammer, so to speak. And Chinese leaders
Speaker 4: more or less dismissed out of hand all of her concerns,
Speaker 4: which doesn't particularly bode well I think for next steps.
Speaker 4: I think, from my perspective, at least her trip sort
Speaker 4: of extends this illusion of constructive engagement between the two superpowers,
Speaker 4: but without actually addressing the core issues that are sort
Speaker 4: of fueling today's tensions. And you know, separately, for its part,
Speaker 4: at least, you know, China was very keen to capitalize
Speaker 4: on this trip for propaganda purposes, using Secretary Yellen's visit
Speaker 4: to project calm to investors who are very concerned about
Speaker 4: China's overall economic health, health, and China's meager growth prospects.
Speaker 2: So there are a lot of audiences here when it
Speaker 2: comes to the audience in Beijing, Craig, what does it
Speaker 2: mean for an American official to pay a visit and
Speaker 2: ask you to rethink the way you're managing your economy,
Speaker 2: in this case boosting its manufacturing capacity, saying hey, you
Speaker 2: guys really ought to worry about increasing domestic demand because
Speaker 2: that's not working as well for us. What's the reaction?
Speaker 4: No, I mean, I think it's been pretty clear for
Speaker 4: some time now that China's leadership has very little to
Speaker 4: maybe no interest in enacting major structural reforms to address
Speaker 4: the country's current economic challenges. So what we're seeing right
Speaker 4: is a sort of back to the future approach in
Speaker 4: which China floods international markets with cheap, heavily subsidized goods
Speaker 4: to stimulate growth. And one major concern, for example, centers
Speaker 4: around electric vehicles. You know, China is intent on dominating
Speaker 4: this emerging sector. They see it as critical to leading
Speaker 4: the next industrial revolution. And with China's EV market already
Speaker 4: very heavily saturated, you know, China's thinking about dumping EV's
Speaker 4: on global markets, including here in the United States, which
Speaker 4: would have a pretty serious impact on US automotive manufacturers,
Speaker 4: US laborers here. And so while countries like Brazil and
Speaker 4: Argentina are getting ahead of Chinese dumping and raising tariffs
Speaker 4: to protect their industries, that the Biden administration has yet
Speaker 4: to do that, and I think that's really a major
Speaker 4: mistake and a real missed opportunity here.
Speaker 2: Well, so what does that mean for tariffs going forward?
Speaker 2: If we're dumping evs or solar panels, whatever it is, Craig,
Speaker 2: this administration actually has not had a lot of sunlight
Speaker 2: between itself and the Trump administration when it comes to
Speaker 2: tariff although Donald Trump is talking about much higher levels
Speaker 2: if he were to be reelected. How about for the
Speaker 2: Biden White House?
Speaker 1: Sure?
Speaker 4: I mean think what we're seeing right now is a
Speaker 4: reflection not of US policy on China, but global pushback
Speaker 4: to China. You're seeing talk about raising tariffs and protective
Speaker 4: measures across Latin America, across Europe that's mostly in response
Speaker 4: to Chinese behavior. I think what the corollary to me
Speaker 4: is when the Obama Biden administration was really trying to
Speaker 4: tackle Chinese hacking and cyber attacks against the United States,
Speaker 4: the Chinese out of the gate admitted those are activities
Speaker 4: they don't engage in, just like today they acknowledge and
Speaker 4: say that we don't engage in dumping and non market practices.
Speaker 4: And a great deal of time is spent negotiating a
Speaker 4: deal like that. Cyber deal, and then what do the
Speaker 4: Chinese do. They go about and actually increase the number
Speaker 4: of cyber attacks against the United States with absolutely no
Speaker 4: punishment from Washington. So I think China's perspective is, let's
Speaker 4: buy some time here, get ourselves out of this economic
Speaker 4: chaos and crisis that we've created for ourselves, and do
Speaker 4: so at the expense of American workers and American companies
Speaker 4: and increasingly worldwide competition as well.
Speaker 2: Spending time with Craig Singleton here on balance of power,
Speaker 2: what do you make of the proximity of this visit
Speaker 2: and Joe Biden's meeting with PRESIDENTI she I guess it
Speaker 2: was about a week ago at this point, Craig, were
Speaker 2: those companion conversations if you will, did that meeting with
Speaker 2: the President's need to come first?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean they had a call, you know, President
Speaker 4: Biden and Shooting had a call last Monday. I think
Speaker 4: there's a strong effort to sort of portray the bilateral
Speaker 4: relationship as stable or improving, But I think it's sort
Speaker 4: of a fallacy here. You know, since she and Biden
Speaker 4: met in San Francisco last fall, the US intelligence community
Speaker 4: has confirmed the Chinese are actively meddling and interfering in
Speaker 4: our election. Chinese state directed hackers have been identified as
Speaker 4: not just accessing, but seeking to compromise our critical infrastructure
Speaker 4: like our ports and electrical grids. Chinese Coast Guard vessels
Speaker 4: are ramming Philippine ships in the South China see knowing
Speaker 4: full well that the Philippines and the US are defense allies.
Speaker 4: Those are hardly I think reassuring. I think for me
Speaker 4: at least, you know the principal paradox of the Biden
Speaker 4: Administration's China policy in its unintended consequences. Right, so far
Speaker 4: from mitigating Beijing's brashness, a lot of these recent diplomatic
Speaker 4: overtures having boldened. She and I think with Washington's attention
Speaker 4: diverted to Ukraine and Israel and to a number of
Speaker 4: impressing domestic matters, we're continuing to accommodate Beijing's aggression today
Speaker 4: and that really risks Chinese overreach tomorrow and maybe miscalculation
Speaker 4: or war.
Speaker 2: Well, you know you mentioned miscalculation. Isn't it something We
Speaker 2: have diplomatic messaging like this between Janet Yellen and Beijing,
Speaker 2: the outreach that we see a personal visit while we're
Speaker 2: talking today about the Biden administration laying out billions of
Speaker 2: dollars to Taiwan's semiconductors so they can come here and
Speaker 2: build foundries in the United States. As we talk about
Speaker 2: banning TikTok, if it's not spun off from byte dance, Craig,
Speaker 2: how do you have all of these at.
Speaker 4: Once expensive proposition? You really have to think about, can
Speaker 4: we wage industrial policy? Well, I think at least of
Speaker 4: the TikTok front. You know, the clock is ticking on
Speaker 4: this TikTok bill. You know, despite passing overwhelmingly in the House,
Speaker 4: Senate leadership, particularly Senator Maria Cantwell, is not even scheduled
Speaker 4: a hearing, let alone a vote on the legislation, and
Speaker 4: in the meantime, TikTok's lobbying team, which is the largest
Speaker 4: of any Chinese company in Washington, is aggressively moving to
Speaker 4: kill this bill. I think there's you know, there is
Speaker 4: really though, next to nothing from stopping a bold national
Speaker 4: security focused senator from attaching the TikTok bill to a
Speaker 4: must pass piece of legislation like the National Defense Authorization
Speaker 4: Act that would absolutely ruffle some feathers here in DC.
Speaker 4: But at the end of the day. I'm not sure
Speaker 4: senators can run or be perceived as being weak on
Speaker 4: China during an election year. And President Biden has already
Speaker 4: given them top cover by saying I'll sign this thing
Speaker 4: the second it hits my desk.
Speaker 2: Well, that's true. Are senators hearing the right pick? You
Speaker 2: mentioned the lobbyists and managed to snuff out this story
Speaker 2: for a good year in Washington. Somehow it came back.
Speaker 2: This gets a new breath of life in the House.
Speaker 2: Senators have been briefed by the White House, They've had
Speaker 2: classified security briefings on this graig or they hearing what
Speaker 2: they need to.
Speaker 4: I think they are. No one that I'm aware of.
Speaker 4: No member of Congress has walked out of those intelligence
Speaker 4: briefings saying TikTok's not a threat. I think what they
Speaker 4: do sort of disagree on is whether this proposal legislation
Speaker 4: which seeks a forced divestment, not a ban, a forced
Speaker 4: divestment of chokers, is the way to go. And I
Speaker 4: think that there's some discussion about whether the bill needs
Speaker 4: to be expanded in terms of scope. And I think
Speaker 4: ultimately those efforts, a lot of them which are being
Speaker 4: championed by TikTok's lobbying team are aimed at killing the bill,
Speaker 4: making it too big so that it fails. I think
Speaker 4: in this case is narrow, it's focused. It's been reviewed
Speaker 4: and drafted in partnership with the Department of Justice to
Speaker 4: ensure that it can stay and court challenge and there
Speaker 4: certainly would be one. But at the end of the day,
Speaker 4: we're approaching a consequential election in a few months. The
Speaker 4: intelligence community has made clear that TikTok is the most
Speaker 4: important tool that the Chinese have to influence public opinion.
Speaker 4: It's time to a.
Speaker 2: Bank you, Craig Singleton. Great to see you, Craig, Thank
Speaker 2: you for joining here on a Monday, Senior director of
Speaker 2: the China Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can
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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Monday edition of Balance of Power here
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and on YouTube. Where
Speaker 2: you can join us. Now search Bloomberg Global News. You'll
Speaker 2: find our live feed. You can even back it up
Speaker 2: to hear the last interview if you wanted talk about
Speaker 2: on Eclipse Day. I suspect that the nation's capital will
Speaker 2: come to a bit of a halt a couple of
Speaker 2: hours from now when the eclipse happens. We're going to
Speaker 2: speak a little later this hour with Julie Fine, who's
Speaker 2: not in Washington, but in the Zone of Totality. Has
Speaker 2: anyone made an album called that yet? Zone of Total?
Speaker 2: Is there a song Zone of Totality? Wouldn't that be forthcoming?
Speaker 2: We'll connect with Julie where apparently people are flying from
Speaker 2: all over the country to be part of this as
Speaker 2: we assemble our panel now on the day that Donald
Speaker 2: Trump makes his announcement on abortion. This has been teased
Speaker 2: since the beginning of last week. Didn't know if he'd
Speaker 2: go for six weeks, maybe fifteen in the end. None
Speaker 2: of the above, avoiding taking a stand on a national
Speaker 2: band pointing to the States. Here's Donald Trump in a
Speaker 2: video released a short time ago.
Speaker 5: My view is now that we have abortioning where everybody
Speaker 5: wanted it from a legal standpoint, The States will determine
Speaker 5: by vote or legislation, or perhaps both, and whatever they
Speaker 5: decide must be the law of the land.
Speaker 2: In this case, the law of the state, the state Land.
Speaker 2: Donald Trump from earlier today, he promised an announcement on
Speaker 2: truth's social last night, and there we have it. Our
Speaker 2: panel today, our signature panel. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano
Speaker 2: back together again, Bloomberg Politics contributors. Genie, what do you
Speaker 2: think if you're Joe Biden, this is good news. Correct.
Speaker 2: You can keep running the ads you already made. You
Speaker 2: can make abortion the same issue that you have been
Speaker 2: framing it since the beginning of this campaign. What do
Speaker 2: you think?
Speaker 6: Oh? I agree. This is what we call a non
Speaker 6: announcement announcement. And he shouldn't have been forecasting that we
Speaker 6: should expect so much from his non announcement announcement because
Speaker 6: he heightened expectations and then of course let them drop
Speaker 6: because what he's saying is that nothing is going to change.
Speaker 6: It will still be up to the states. And just
Speaker 6: as we know electorally, the still being up to the
Speaker 6: states is what we've had since the Dobbs decision, and
Speaker 6: that has helped Democrats, so they've got to be celebrating
Speaker 6: in the campaign over there for Joe Biden at least
Speaker 6: a little bit, knowing that they don't have to remake
Speaker 6: these commercials.
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, you know, and I say that facetiously.
Speaker 2: Then again, Rick, maybe you're going to tell me that
Speaker 2: this is the other way around. If he had reached
Speaker 2: for six or fifteen or twelve weeks that is, and
Speaker 2: talked about a national band in any specific way, he
Speaker 2: would have handcuffed himself to a policy.
Speaker 7: Right, what do you make of this just depends on
Speaker 7: who he was trying to make happy. I mean, if
Speaker 7: he was trying to play to the bass and wanted
Speaker 7: to keep them excited about this issue, then he would
Speaker 7: have said that there are a lot of good proposals
Speaker 7: like Lindsey Graham's on a national bill. And he could
Speaker 7: have said that, you know, there are legitimate debates to
Speaker 7: be had around the tie, and maybe even had suggested
Speaker 7: fifteen weeks or something that has become a bit of
Speaker 7: a safe harbor, like Governor Younkin tried to do in
Speaker 7: Virginia last election year. So there are a lot of
Speaker 7: options he could have taken. I think he took the
Speaker 7: one that was going to get him the most blowback
Speaker 7: from his base, and we see that from Lindsey Graham
Speaker 7: and from Mike Pence today, which is, hey, wait a minute,
Speaker 7: we never said this was just up to the states,
Speaker 7: and so now he's got exactly the opposite of I
Speaker 7: think what he really wanted, which was to be able to.
Speaker 2: Have it both ways.
Speaker 7: And at this stage, no Democrats going to think this
Speaker 7: is a great idea to have Donald Trump protecting your
Speaker 7: moortion rights, and no Republican is going to be satisfied
Speaker 7: with his answer, So.
Speaker 2: I'd say, yeah, why even go there? To your point, Rick,
Speaker 2: Mike Pence just tweeted, this is a long tweet, by
Speaker 2: the way, I didn't know you could tweet this many characters.
Speaker 2: President Trump's retreat on the right to life is a
Speaker 2: slap in the face to the millions of pro life
Speaker 2: Americans who voted for him in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. Rick,
Speaker 2: he can't lose evangelicals over this, can he?
Speaker 8: Yeah? He can.
Speaker 2: In fact, Susan B.
Speaker 7: Anthony released a similar announcement right after he posted his video,
Speaker 7: and they represent millions of right to life voters and
Speaker 7: they are completely aghast at the president's decision. Look I mean,
Speaker 7: he owns getting rid of Roe v. Wade, he might
Speaker 7: as well embrace it, take what he can out of it.
Speaker 7: It does show, I would say, if I'm reading the
Speaker 7: tea leaves that they know the polls that you know
Speaker 7: Genie talks about all the time, which is abortion can
Speaker 7: get Democratic horror voters and swing women in suburbs excited.
Speaker 7: And they're trying to put some air out of that tire.
Speaker 7: But I think they just added gasoline to the flames.
Speaker 2: It's incredible, so interesting to think of the way this
Speaker 2: day is turning for these two candidates. Then Jennie Joe
Speaker 2: Biden is in Madison, Wisconsin, in a college town, talking
Speaker 2: about forgiving student loan debt, and it appears, based on
Speaker 2: the way this would all work or not work, that
Speaker 2: he can carry this for the duration of the campaign.
Speaker 2: So you've got abortion and student loan debt at the
Speaker 2: top of the stump speech here for Joe Biden. He's
Speaker 2: obviously got Israel and a number of other issues that
Speaker 2: are still dogging him. But when it comes to domestic policy,
Speaker 2: these are two that you might consider in his favor.
Speaker 2: How do you look at it?
Speaker 6: Yeah, you might, I mean, certainly abortion I think student
Speaker 6: loan is a bit tougher for Joe Biden. He's going
Speaker 6: to say it, he's going to run on it. Nobody
Speaker 6: if indeed he's able to push this through with this
Speaker 6: second try, it's not going to be felt in time
Speaker 6: for the election, which may be a good thing if
Speaker 6: it's overturned. So, you know, I think that's more of
Speaker 6: a mixed bag on the campaign trail. And you know,
Speaker 6: I would just say that a real problem for Donald
Speaker 6: Trump to go back to that for a minute on
Speaker 6: the abortion issue, is here is somebody who has made
Speaker 6: his name saying I am not a politician, I am
Speaker 6: not part of the you know, the swamp that is Washington,
Speaker 6: d C. And yet what do we have here today
Speaker 6: somebody who's trying to play both ends against the middle.
Speaker 6: This is Donald Trump trying to be the poll and
Speaker 6: he is not doing it very successfully. He's getting blowback
Speaker 6: from all sides. And that is something else the Biden
Speaker 6: campaign can use, because as much as we want to
Speaker 6: talk about positive things, both campaigns can use to their advantage.
Speaker 6: This campaign is going to be about the negative about
Speaker 6: the other guy. Nobody likes either one of these guys
Speaker 6: enough to vote for them, but they're voting against the
Speaker 6: other guy and abortion and Donald Trump as a regular
Speaker 6: old politician is not a good thing for Donald Trump.
Speaker 6: And the campaign's going to use.
Speaker 2: That just quickly. Genie, you spend time with students all day.
Speaker 2: You're not hearing anything any hopefulness about this announcement today.
Speaker 2: This is you know, earned once when it comes to
Speaker 2: this issue. Show me what you got, Joe Biden, what
Speaker 2: are you hearing?
Speaker 6: Yeah, we don't hear much about it because they've heard
Speaker 6: so much talk about it. They want to see action.
Speaker 6: Without that action, these young people are paying. And you
Speaker 6: know this well, Joe, because you have a son who will.
Speaker 2: Be going to college.
Speaker 6: It's almost sensive and yeah, exactly, and I've got one
Speaker 6: in myself, and you know it's expensive and these kids
Speaker 6: have no relief. It is a travesty in our system.
Speaker 6: But it's not won. Any president, forget about Joe Biden
Speaker 6: can resolve on their own. It requires Congress, and we
Speaker 6: don't see a Congress that's going to act on this.
Speaker 2: Rick, what do you think of the big fundraiser over
Speaker 2: the weekend we talked about Radio City Music Hall for
Speaker 2: the three Democratic presidents. It was Biden Obama Clinton, a
Speaker 2: new record week goes by Donald Trump tops that by
Speaker 2: a lot, fifty point five million dollars, the biggest event
Speaker 2: we've seen of its kind at a billionaire's mansion in
Speaker 2: Palm Beach. Was this just about making a point or
Speaker 2: does it actually help his campaign?
Speaker 8: Oh?
Speaker 7: I think it absolutely helps his campaign. And part of
Speaker 7: what helps his campaign is he's making a point and
Speaker 7: he needs the money.
Speaker 2: That's actually number one.
Speaker 7: And when you can write almost nine hundred thousand dollars
Speaker 7: checks into a political campaign and you've got a bunch
Speaker 7: of billionaire buddies, then you would expect to have this
Speaker 7: kind of an event. And kudos to the Trump folks
Speaker 7: for pulling it off. It's not easy, and they did
Speaker 7: it with a lot less negative attention than the Biden
Speaker 7: twenty five million dollar contributions in New York City.
Speaker 2: But they're going to need that cash.
Speaker 7: They're still lagging behind the Biden armada of the DNC,
Speaker 7: his packs, and his campaign, so they're playing catchup. But
Speaker 7: they caught up a lot of ways this weekend.
Speaker 2: Huh, fascinating, genie, Is Joe Biden going to try to
Speaker 2: top him?
Speaker 9: Now?
Speaker 2: What can we do here? In one weekend.
Speaker 6: Oh yeah, I think he's gonna try. I don't know
Speaker 6: if he'll get there, but you've got to feel good
Speaker 6: if you're the Biden campaign. The fundraising aspect, unlike the polls,
Speaker 6: is in his favor. Still, he has a you know,
Speaker 6: the small donors to go back to Donald Trump's billionaire
Speaker 6: friends are you know now they are cut out of
Speaker 6: this thing, at least legally unless they're going to go
Speaker 6: to the super pack. So it's a problem for Donald
Speaker 6: Trump not to mention, he's got to pay off a
Speaker 6: lot more lawyers than Joe Biden does at this point.
Speaker 2: They're going to be back next hour. Rick Davis and
Speaker 2: Jeanie Shanzo our signature panel on Balance of Power. You
Speaker 2: couldn't have a Monday without them. I'm Joe Matthew on
Speaker 2: this eclipse day in Washington. We don't get the zone
Speaker 2: of totality here. We're off to the side. I guess
Speaker 2: kind of like New York City is. We're going to
Speaker 2: get what is it, We get like a two thirds something.
Speaker 2: It'll get kind of dark, it'll feel like dusk here
Speaker 2: for a moment. No one's traveling here to see the eclipse.
Speaker 2: People are traveling, though, it's a place is like Texas
Speaker 2: to be a part of this. They're spending a bunch
Speaker 2: of money on air planes to get there. They're spending
Speaker 2: money on Mexican food in Dallas when they arrive. That's
Speaker 2: where we find Julie Fine, Texas bureau chief for Bloomberg,
Speaker 2: in the middle of this all can't find a place
Speaker 2: to park or a place to eat. From what I understand, Julie,
Speaker 2: is this all worth it for you? What if you
Speaker 2: don't see the what if the weather doesn't cooperate. This
Speaker 2: whole travel aspect confounds me.
Speaker 10: Well, it's worth it for me because I'm here.
Speaker 2: But as for somebody, Yeah, you don't have to travel.
Speaker 10: Right, I don't have to go anywhere. I just have
Speaker 10: to walk outside, work, put on the glasses and look up.
Speaker 10: I think for somebody that's coming here, there will be
Speaker 10: you will see something. You will absolutely see something. It
Speaker 10: may not be absolutely perfect, but it'll be dark, it'll
Speaker 10: be dusk for a little while. I think it's an event,
Speaker 10: and I think people are looking at it that way
Speaker 10: unless they're really specifically into the science of it. A
Speaker 10: lot of people made a weekend here in Dallas, which
Speaker 10: is a very easy thing to do.
Speaker 2: So I think for.
Speaker 10: People that came, while it may not be perfect, it
Speaker 10: made for a nice couple of days. It certainly made
Speaker 10: a nice couple of days for Texas. You've got econ.
Speaker 10: I miss saying that this brought in more than four
Speaker 10: hundred million dollars.
Speaker 6: For the state.
Speaker 10: There is apparently, according to the mayor, four hundred thousand
Speaker 10: people in the city of Dallas right now. So a
Speaker 10: lot of people head into Texas this weekend.
Speaker 2: Now, I don't know what. By the way, I'm asking
Speaker 2: about weather. I see, you've got what seventy four degrees now,
Speaker 2: you're partly sunny today. You could still pull this off,
Speaker 2: right Yeah.
Speaker 10: I mean we're watching the forecast as they come minute
Speaker 10: by minute. Sure it's a little bit cloudy, but they're
Speaker 10: saying absolutely, do not lose hope. Yes, it's definitely a
Speaker 10: little bit cloudy. It is not perfect conditions. But I mean,
Speaker 10: whether the weather forecasters and meteorologists are saying, you know,
Speaker 10: do not lose hope on this.
Speaker 2: Four hundred thousand did you say in town?
Speaker 10: Yeah, the mayor estimated I received an email yesterday the
Speaker 10: mayor estimated four hundred thousand people in the Dallas area,
Speaker 10: and I don't forget we've got four work and we've
Speaker 10: got the surrounding suburbs around here. But look at a
Speaker 10: super Bowl, Joe. I mean a stadium hole one hundred
Speaker 10: thousand people, the largest stadium, so you see a bunch
Speaker 10: of people come in for that. That is not four
Speaker 10: hundred thousand people. So just to kind of show you
Speaker 10: how many people are around, that's a really good example.
Speaker 2: So Texas already won, and the states in between. This
Speaker 2: thing's gonna arc all the way up across. If you're
Speaker 2: with us on YouTube, we're showing you the zone of
Speaker 2: totality all the way up through Maine. Does it have
Speaker 2: a festive feel? I mean, you're nothing but sprawl down
Speaker 2: there in Dallas, right, Can you even tell that everyone's there?
Speaker 10: Oh, you can tell everyone's here for sure. There are people.
Speaker 2: So it's a mob scene.
Speaker 10: It's a mob scene. Yeah, it's very Yeah, it's an obscene.
Speaker 10: You can definitely sense that people are here. I mean
Speaker 10: a lot of schools are closed. Some people are really
Speaker 10: treating this as a snow day, so yeah, you can
Speaker 10: certainly feel that this is going on. I mean I
Speaker 10: got in here to park this morning, I'm like, Wow,
Speaker 10: this is the easiest day I've ever had parking. So yes,
Speaker 10: people are definitely very into the eclipse.
Speaker 2: All right, you got your glasses? Are they easy to find? I? Actually,
Speaker 2: you know, by the way, I have big apologies to
Speaker 2: Craig Singleton. I probably made everyone feel bad because I
Speaker 2: didn't you know, I was going to be too cool
Speaker 2: to wear glasses. I'm going to encourage all of our guests.
Speaker 2: But they're clip.
Speaker 10: Oh absolutely glasses.
Speaker 2: You've got them handy.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 10: Well, I was so worried there were going to be
Speaker 10: no glasses. I ordered for the office like three months ago.
Speaker 2: I took a poll.
Speaker 10: How many of you were going to be here?
Speaker 8: I ordered?
Speaker 10: Yeah, you can get You can get glasses pretty much
Speaker 10: all over the place. I was in Target yesterday. They
Speaker 10: still had glasses. There were tents on the street. I
Speaker 10: think it was selling glasses. You can get glasses, get that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you can't find them anywhere around here. I even
Speaker 2: went to the library over the weekend. It had been
Speaker 2: a long time since I had tried that. Can we
Speaker 2: see the sun on YouTube? We have a sun cam.
Speaker 2: There's an eclipse cam here, Julie. I don't know if
Speaker 2: we can show it there. You go. I never thought
Speaker 2: i'd share a box with the sun before, Julie, thank you.
Speaker 2: Don't stare at the eclipse without your glasses. Our Texas
Speaker 2: Bureau chief in the throes of activity on this eclipse day,
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew without a pair of glasses. But Kaylee
Speaker 2: Lines will join the conversation next. We've got a lot
Speaker 2: to talk about on Balance of Power. Only here on Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch
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Speaker 11: I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington, where
Speaker 11: we are not sadly in the path of totality today
Speaker 11: for the eclipse is Wisconsin in the path of totality,
Speaker 11: because that's where President Biden.
Speaker 2: Is going to send his pointing. I guess he'd have
Speaker 2: something to look at there, if not total the zone
Speaker 2: of totality. I feel like there needs to be an
Speaker 2: album recorded and think you'd make a lot of money
Speaker 2: right now. I've heard so much about this. We spoke
Speaker 2: with our own Julie Fine in the zone of totality
Speaker 2: to the south where Kaylee, it's cloudy today.
Speaker 11: That's a big bummer. Yeah, So I guess we'll get
Speaker 11: to see if President Biden experiences the eclipse or to
Speaker 11: a degree in Wisconsin. But of course he's there with
Speaker 11: a very specific message today, Joe, and that is that
Speaker 11: he would like to provide more student loan relief to
Speaker 11: the Americans who are saddled with that debt.
Speaker 2: And here you thought that this was not happening, remembering
Speaker 2: the Supreme Court shot down the first attempt to do this. Now, Kaylee,
Speaker 2: it's a plan B. We're talking about as many as
Speaker 2: twenty six million Americans. The question is will it work.
Speaker 2: That remains a question, and it could for the balance
Speaker 2: of this campaign. And that's where we start today with
Speaker 2: Jordan Fabie and Bloomberg White House reporter is with us
Speaker 2: now for more on this. Jordan, it's good to see you.
Speaker 2: What makes this different than the first one? Is is
Speaker 2: it the more strict criteria? How's the White House going
Speaker 2: about this?
Speaker 12: It's still quite broad based, Joe, but the White House
Speaker 12: has tried to make it more targeted in order to
Speaker 12: pass legal muster. So they've targeted groups like borrowers whose
Speaker 12: balances exceed their original principles. Borrowers who might qualify for
Speaker 12: other federal programs have again enrolled. And so the hope
Speaker 12: is that by tailoring it a little more narrowly, they
Speaker 12: will be able to pass muster. But we'll have to
Speaker 12: see if the courts agree with that approach.
Speaker 11: Yeah, and of course we'll hear from the president about
Speaker 11: this this afternoon. He's going to be speaking in Madison, Wisconsin,
Speaker 11: where of course the University of Wisconsin is and that
Speaker 11: was also one of the areas in the Wisconsin primary
Speaker 11: that we just saw earlier this month in which he
Speaker 11: struggled with the uninstructed vote. A lot of young voters,
Speaker 11: as we have seen in college towns all across the
Speaker 11: Democratic primary states, are voicing protest over his policy surrounding
Speaker 11: Israel in the ongoing war in Gaza. Is this give
Speaker 11: them something so you can try to get them back,
Speaker 11: knowing they're upset with you over Israel, try to make
Speaker 11: some progress on the student loan front.
Speaker 8: Yeah.
Speaker 12: As you mentioned, Kaylee, these college towns are sort of
Speaker 12: ground zero for all of President Biden's problems. You mentioned
Speaker 12: the Israel, Gaza War. This student loan issue is a
Speaker 12: big issue for young voters, gen Z voters who we
Speaker 12: need to show up in November. I think we had
Speaker 12: pullings showing them falling away from President Biden after they
Speaker 12: strongly supported him in twenty twenty. He's going to need
Speaker 12: voters in these college towns like Madison State College in
Speaker 12: Pennsylvania to name a couple to come out for him
Speaker 12: in November, and so he's starting today.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 12: The risk is that he'll go to Madison and you know,
Speaker 12: I'm sure there'll be protesters there, but the white hoping
Speaker 12: that their message isn't drowned out and that this appeal
Speaker 12: breaks through to those voters.
Speaker 2: Some impressive fundraising numbers. I'm sure you saw Jordan for
Speaker 2: March ninety million dollars for the Biden campaign and for
Speaker 2: the DNC. He ends the month with one hundred and
Speaker 2: ninety two million dollars cash on hand, which is more
Speaker 2: than double what Donald Trump and the Republican Party of
Speaker 2: the RNC have in their equivalent accounts here. It's interesting
Speaker 2: to me the money game that we're talking about. Donald
Speaker 2: Trump's getting a lot of attention for setting a record
Speaker 2: over the weekend with a fifty million dollar in one night,
Speaker 2: doubling what Joe Biden managed when he was on stage
Speaker 2: with Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. How would you frame
Speaker 2: the money contest right now if that's in fact what
Speaker 2: we should be paying attention to.
Speaker 12: The fifty million dollar haul is impressive, but it also
Speaker 12: illustrates how much ground President Trump has the makeup against
Speaker 12: President Biden. Biden's war tress that is more than double
Speaker 12: of what Trump says. And so why does this matter?
Speaker 12: Look ahead to later this summer, going into the fall,
Speaker 12: when the election really starts to become the focus for people.
Speaker 12: Biden's going to have a lot more money at this
Speaker 12: point to open those offices in battleground states, to get
Speaker 12: people out knocking on doors, handing out materials, and also
Speaker 12: to flood the airwaves with advertisements. One of Biden's biggest
Speaker 12: problems is that he's done all these things in his
Speaker 12: first term, whether it's the Inflation Reduction Act, whether it's
Speaker 12: this Act student Loans today, and he's not giving a
Speaker 12: lot of credit for it among voters. So the advertising
Speaker 12: could help that breakthrough to people who haven't really been
Speaker 12: tuning in. So those are the ways that you could
Speaker 12: look for Biden's kind of outpaced Trump, but money isn't everything.
Speaker 12: You know, Trump was outraised by Hillary Clinton in twenty
Speaker 12: sixteen and he went on to win. So while it's important,
Speaker 12: it is not the decisive factor.
Speaker 11: All right. Jordan Fabian, who covers the White House for
Speaker 11: us here at Bloomberg, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 11: And of course, as Jordan, there was talking about some
Speaker 11: of these college towns and the issues resonating there, including
Speaker 11: policy over Israel. We know, Joe that the White House
Speaker 11: has been pushing and pushing more aggressively, so perhaps Israel
Speaker 11: to do more in terms of humanitarian aid, protection of civilians,
Speaker 11: and that really has been the heart of the debate
Speaker 11: over an operation in Rafa, that city where over a
Speaker 11: million Palestinians have sought refuge. We just just get a
Speaker 11: statement from Netanyahu about Rafa again. He says there is
Speaker 11: a date for that. We just don't know what the
Speaker 11: date is.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really something. As you mentioned, they were pulling
Speaker 2: out of certain areas to regroup, and that did give
Speaker 2: us a sense that something might be about to happen here.
Speaker 2: The administration has been adamant about this. No invasion at
Speaker 2: all without a credible plan to evacuate civilians. I'm not
Speaker 2: sure that we see any reference to that here. It
Speaker 2: will happen, says NET and Yahoo. There is a date.
Speaker 2: We did hear from the White House over the weekend
Speaker 2: on this as well. When it comes to our deteriorating relationship.
Speaker 11: Yeah, this was something that Admiral John Kirby, who of
Speaker 11: course as a spokesman for the NSC, was asked about
Speaker 11: on ABC's this week and this is what he said.
Speaker 3: We have been increasingly frustrated. And again that was a
Speaker 3: core message that the President delivered the Prime Minister of
Speaker 3: Netniao in their phone call this week this past week.
Speaker 3: If they've got to do more, they've got to make
Speaker 3: changes now. The Prime Minister assured the President that he
Speaker 3: would do that. We've seen some announcements in those early hours.
Speaker 3: That's welcome. We got to see more. We've got to
Speaker 3: see it over time.
Speaker 8: So for more.
Speaker 11: We're joined now by Carmeil Arbitch. She is Atlantic Council
Speaker 11: Nonresident Senior Fellow for Middle East Programs. Kmeil, always great
Speaker 11: to have you with us here on Bloomberg Television and Radio.
Speaker 11: As we hear from Admiral Kirby there the idea that
Speaker 11: they've got to see more. They think they will see
Speaker 11: it over time. How much are we seeing already, not
Speaker 11: just in terms of the fact that there has now
Speaker 11: been another corridor open for humanitarian aid and res For example,
Speaker 11: they have the military has taken action with those who
Speaker 11: were responsible for the World Central kitchen strike that resulted
Speaker 11: in deaths of seven of those humanitarian aid workers. Are
Speaker 11: we seeing Israel actually come around to the US's way
Speaker 11: of thinking, here are these relatively small steps that don't
Speaker 11: actually fundamentally change too much in terms of their policy.
Speaker 9: Yeah, thanks so much. I think we are at a
Speaker 9: fundamental change point in this war. It's not just that
Speaker 9: Israel has pulled out of fun units, It's that they
Speaker 9: have pulled the majority of their troops out of Gaza
Speaker 9: as they prepare to move to the next phase of war,
Speaker 9: which will likely be more pinpointed attacks. So I think
Speaker 9: we are seeing a really significant shift here. Now how
Speaker 9: that plays out is yet to be seen. I think
Speaker 9: on the one hand, you have Nattaya, who's speaking to
Speaker 9: domestic audiences asserting over and over again that there will
Speaker 9: be an operation in Rafa, which many in Israel are
Speaker 9: now starting to doubt, while at the same time pulling
Speaker 9: out troops to prepare for what could be a breakthrough
Speaker 9: in cease fire talks as part of Hamas's demands. So
Speaker 9: we're really at an inflection point in this war right
Speaker 9: now where we're seeing a shift in Israel's operation.
Speaker 2: Well, should we doubt whether this invasion takes place? Now
Speaker 2: that we have this statement? Karmel, how do you read
Speaker 2: what Netanyahu is saying only suggesting that there is a date.
Speaker 9: I think the question is what that operation is going
Speaker 9: to look like. So twenty out of the twenty four
Speaker 9: battalions of Hamas's military have been dismantled, and the four
Speaker 9: that remain are in Rapha. So the question for Israel
Speaker 9: is what they are going to do, how and when
Speaker 9: they are going to go into Rafa. Right now, as
Speaker 9: I had mentioned, the ceasefire talks are really very close,
Speaker 9: and there is a huge amount of international pressure, including
Speaker 9: from the White House, which is exerting pressure now in
Speaker 9: a way that it had not been throughout this war.
Speaker 9: We've seen a huge shift in US public opinion and
Speaker 9: thinking about this war and then how the administration is
Speaker 9: approaching it. And with that now we're starting to see
Speaker 9: a shift within the Israeli government as well.
Speaker 11: Yeah, in part of the statement we got from net Niahu,
Speaker 11: not just the suggestion that there is a date for
Speaker 11: an entry into Rafa, he also said he has gotten
Speaker 11: a report on those talks in Cairo. He says, we
Speaker 11: are working all the time for the achievement of our goals,
Speaker 11: first of all, the return of all of our hostages
Speaker 11: and Carmeil. As you talk about the international pressure on
Speaker 11: net Nyahu and the Israeli government right now, it's also
Speaker 11: worth noting there is domestic pressure as well. Once again,
Speaker 11: over the weekend we saw thousands protesting calling for a
Speaker 11: deal that would secure the release of those hostages. How
Speaker 11: should what's happening inside Israel a factor into our thinking
Speaker 11: about Netanyahu's likely moves as we move forward.
Speaker 9: It's very important. Ultimately, all politics are local, and so
Speaker 9: you see Nasagna who continually speaking to both sides, both
Speaker 9: to his far right government who he's trying to show
Speaker 9: muscle too, and that he will not coward international pressure,
Speaker 9: and at the same time is responsive to the thousands
Speaker 9: of Israelis we're taking to the streets to demand the
Speaker 9: release of more than one hundred and thirty hostages. Every
Speaker 9: day that passes, the number of hostages that are killed grows.
Speaker 9: It is now believed that about half of those hostages
Speaker 9: are still alive, and so every day the pressure mounds.
Speaker 2: I'm glad you mentioned that because there was a terrifying
Speaker 2: story in the Washington Post this morning about families parents
Speaker 2: of two boys in this case, who they thought two
Speaker 2: sons were being held hostage, hoping for their release for
Speaker 2: the last six months, only to learn that they had died,
Speaker 2: either during their captivity or as they were dragged into
Speaker 2: Gaza Carmel. To what extent are families in Israel losing hope?
Speaker 9: Yeah, there is a huge amount of pain in Israel
Speaker 9: right now, not just over the hostage situation, but that
Speaker 9: Natagne who has yet to deliver on many of the
Speaker 9: fundamental promises he made about this war that includes dismantling Hamas,
Speaker 9: and while he's made significant military gains, Hamas still remains
Speaker 9: in power in Gaza, the hostages have not been released.
Speaker 9: There is a huge amount of pain and suffering. More,
Speaker 9: the two hundred and fifty Israeli soldiers have been killed
Speaker 9: in this war in Gaza, and many Israelis feel that
Speaker 9: they are neither. They're not winning, and so Natanya who
Speaker 9: is under pressure to prove that that's not the case,
Speaker 9: while at the same time to try to retain his
Speaker 9: position of power, which is becoming increasingly challenged.
Speaker 11: There is still, as you have really alluded to, a
Speaker 11: ongoing threat from Hamas. There are still battalions that have
Speaker 11: not been dismantled. They're also Carmel, though might be more
Speaker 11: of a threat from Iran directly, not just from an
Speaker 11: Iranian proxy like Hamas. We have heard in recent days
Speaker 11: that Israel's military is prepared to respond to a scenario
Speaker 11: that could develop if Iran retaliates for the strike on
Speaker 11: the embassy in Damascus earlier this month. What could we
Speaker 11: see from Iran? Do you think we could actually see
Speaker 11: some form of retaliation from Iran directly rather than this
Speaker 11: being done through proxies as we've seen in the past.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 9: I think the stakes around Iranian retaliation right now are
Speaker 9: incredibly high for two reasons. One, the timing is going
Speaker 9: to matter a lot because the Israelis and Hamas are
Speaker 9: so close to a ceasefire agreement. Anything that Iran does
Speaker 9: right now could potentially derail that. So that's the first
Speaker 9: thing to keep an eye on. The Second thing that
Speaker 9: we're looking at is whether or not Iran is going
Speaker 9: to escalate. There have been dozens upon dozens of attacks
Speaker 9: dominating from Hezbalah, also on US assets across the region,
Speaker 9: and similarly Israeli attacks on Iranian assets, including those that
Speaker 9: have increasingly targeted the IERGC and the Iranians directly. And
Speaker 9: we've seen that throughout the war, but up until this point,
Speaker 9: it's really been at a relatively low simmer. It's been
Speaker 9: kind of this medium medium heat, if you will. So
Speaker 9: the question now for Roun is whether or not they're
Speaker 9: going to increase that temperature. Most likely what we're going
Speaker 9: to see is some kind of attack on Israeli American
Speaker 9: assets overseas. I think the scenario in which they would
Speaker 9: attack on Israeli soil remains pretty low, but would mark
Speaker 9: a significant escalation in this conflict.
Speaker 2: So where does this actually play out then? Is it
Speaker 2: in Syria itself? Are we at c car Meal or
Speaker 2: does that have yet to present itself.
Speaker 9: It really has yet to present itself, and the Iranians
Speaker 9: have many options, and that includes everything from embassies or
Speaker 9: Israel's diplomatic presence overseas in countries as are reaching in
Speaker 9: Latin America or Europe where the Israelis have already put
Speaker 9: their staff on alert. We could also be looking at
Speaker 9: US assets and the seas, and the US has of
Speaker 9: course been working to tamp down on Huti attacks and
Speaker 9: has done so relatively successfully in recent months. So we
Speaker 9: could see really in any of these arenas around really
Speaker 9: planning up its rule and going after again either the
Speaker 9: US or the Israelis directly.
Speaker 2: Carmel, it's great to see you. Thanks for coming back
Speaker 2: to see us from the Atlantic Council, carmeil arbit on
Speaker 2: a day that we have learned, according to the Associated
Speaker 2: Press and now confirmed in a statement by Benjamin Ett
Speaker 2: Yaho Kayle, that a date has been set for the
Speaker 2: invasion of Rafa. There's no sense, obviously, based on this conversation,
Speaker 2: when that will be or in what form that it
Speaker 2: will take.
Speaker 11: No, all he says is that it will happen in
Speaker 11: that victory for Israel requires an entry into Rafa and
Speaker 11: the elimination of the remaining hamaspittalions there. So it becomes question, Joe,
Speaker 11: of between now and whatever date ultimately is set for
Speaker 11: this operation, what can be done for the million plus
Speaker 11: civilians in RAFA, can they be successfully move given aid
Speaker 11: protected as the US would like to see.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 2: As Janet Yellen wraps the big trip for second to
Speaker 2: China in nine months, and it's interesting as each member
Speaker 2: of the administration kind of delivers their own message here
Speaker 2: Kayley creating a composite that Beijing can react to. In
Speaker 2: this case, though, urging our competitor to rethink their economic
Speaker 2: strategy is an interesting way to go about it. Yeah.
Speaker 11: Well, her primary concern is that because China is dealing
Speaker 11: with kind of a multifaceted you in their own economy,
Speaker 11: including the property sector, which has been really weak for
Speaker 11: some period of time, they've been investing a lot in
Speaker 11: their industrial base into manufacturing and potentially creating if you
Speaker 11: listen to the Treasury Secretary's concerns, more supply than the
Speaker 11: world is actually going to be able to absorb everything.
Speaker 11: The message that she brought the question is was heated?
Speaker 11: Will it be heated?
Speaker 2: Well, that's true. Whether we're talking evs or solar panels.
Speaker 2: This has a direct impact on our industries here. It's
Speaker 2: not lost on us that today the administration announcing billions
Speaker 2: for Taiwan's semiconductor to come here to start building foundries.
Speaker 11: Yep, another fab they're planning in Arizona. All of that,
Speaker 11: of course, is part of a big push we have
Speaker 11: seen in semiconductors and chips in particular. But it all
Speaker 11: speaks to this idea that the US is not trying
Speaker 11: to decouple from China. They are trying to diversify the
Speaker 11: supply chain, including bringing more here at home, while also
Speaker 11: normalizing this relationship simultaneously trying to protect national security interest
Speaker 11: at the same time. It all is a very difficul
Speaker 11: picture of that Jenny Yellen and others in the administration
Speaker 11: face as they try to navigate this relationship. And we
Speaker 11: want to go now to someone who knows this relationship
Speaker 11: quite well. He's Lieutenant General Robert Walsh, Academy Securities Advisory
Speaker 11: Board member. He's also a former commanding General of the
Speaker 11: Marine Corps Combat Development Command General. Great to have you
Speaker 11: here on Bloomberg Television and Radio. You helped develop the
Speaker 11: twenty eighteen National Military Strategy and National Defense Strategy in
Speaker 11: which China is defined as a strategic competitor. This is
Speaker 11: language that we hear a lot. What is your assessment
Speaker 11: right now of how the US is treating China in
Speaker 11: this strategic competition? What exactly does that mean?
Speaker 8: I think the relationship has certainly changed a lot from
Speaker 8: the days where we considered them a strategic partner. I
Speaker 8: think if you look at Secretary Yellen's visit and President
Speaker 8: Biden's call with President Jijinping last week, we've seen that
Speaker 8: the competition is very clear. And now I think the
Speaker 8: US administration is really trying to thread a needle by
Speaker 8: maintaining relationships, trying to improve relationships with China because they
Speaker 8: kind of dipped off for a while there, but try
Speaker 8: to improve those relationships, but still try to protect US technology,
Speaker 8: and specifically, the Biden administration would like to be a
Speaker 8: leader in the green energy area in the globe, and
Speaker 8: they see China rapidly moving into that area. You mentioned
Speaker 8: EV's is one, and so that's an area is the
Speaker 8: Biden deministration tries to create jobs in both the semiconductor
Speaker 8: industry and also the EV industry and the green energy.
Speaker 8: They see China's ability to over manufacture and increase production
Speaker 8: along with state owned enterprise subsidies to be able to
Speaker 8: reduce prices and potentially flood the market and caused damage
Speaker 8: to the ability of US to manufacture here in the US.
Speaker 2: Well, just to get back general to where Hayley started here,
Speaker 2: let's go back to your in twenty eighteen. That designation
Speaker 2: strategic competitor that you came up with in that piece
Speaker 2: of work has been repeated ever since by administrations, including
Speaker 2: this one. We've heard Joe Biden say more than once
Speaker 2: that China is someone we want to have a competition
Speaker 2: with and not a conflict. We've seen some interesting footwork
Speaker 2: around jargon here, from a decoupling to I can't even
Speaker 2: remember what some of the other ones were at this point,
Speaker 2: back where you were in twenty eighteen. If you looked
Speaker 2: at the relationship today, how would you have described it?
Speaker 1: Then?
Speaker 8: I would describe it that China's continue on the path
Speaker 8: that they've been on. How they've vocalized that or put
Speaker 8: that out from an information standpoint is different. And back
Speaker 8: then when we really started to see them come online
Speaker 8: is what we considered as strategic competitor. They had just
Speaker 8: come out with Made in China twenty twenty five, which
Speaker 8: was a hey blueprint or strategy that laid out how
Speaker 8: China wanted to dominate the globe in technology, listed in
Speaker 8: areas like AI, quantum computing, robotics, into semiconductors, those sort
Speaker 8: of things that we saw them saying that they're going
Speaker 8: to lead and lead the globe in. They kind of
Speaker 8: pulled that off the table and became kind of quiet
Speaker 8: for a while because it got a lot of adverse
Speaker 8: publicity around the globe that China was going to dominate
Speaker 8: and put others out of business. And since that time,
Speaker 8: we've seen them really march along that path. And now
Speaker 8: one of the things I think we're definitely seeing is
Speaker 8: the Biden administration seeing that we talk about you know,
Speaker 8: high tech capabilities, dual use capabilities such as semiconductors. We
Speaker 8: can look at how they dominate areas in rare earth minerals,
Speaker 8: some of the things that make batteries like those type
Speaker 8: of materials dominate those areas that not only can have
Speaker 8: a military impact on the US. But now we're seeing
Speaker 8: more of a competition on the economic side. And I
Speaker 8: think the real wake up call is coming is the
Speaker 8: US military into Department Defense, has really studied China's military growth.
Speaker 8: What we're seeing is the Chinese Party is really leading
Speaker 8: much more towards economic dominance across the road through their
Speaker 8: Belt Road initiative.
Speaker 11: Well, I'm glad you brought up the military aspect of
Speaker 11: this relationship as well, because, of course, when Biden and
Speaker 11: Chijhin paying had their summit out in California in November,
Speaker 11: part of that was trying to normalize military to military communications,
Speaker 11: which had stopped for a period of time, And as
Speaker 11: Yellen was in China, we got news that the US
Speaker 11: and China had resumed a dialogue basically preventing an inadvertent clash.
Speaker 11: How high, general, in your mind, is the risk of
Speaker 11: an accident of some kind of miscalculation while we're still
Speaker 11: working on normalizing that communication. How much room for a
Speaker 11: potential error, perhaps very significant error is there now?
Speaker 8: I think it's a great, great point, Kaylee. They did
Speaker 8: begin those discussions effect. The first call came from President
Speaker 8: Biden ToJ in July twenty two and like you mentioned
Speaker 8: at the APEC summit, they had another discussion. It's really
Speaker 8: we have to keep the lines of communication open even
Speaker 8: as a competitor, which is completely different than we had
Speaker 8: with the Cold War with the Soviet Union. We always
Speaker 8: kept the lines of communication open so we don't have
Speaker 8: misunderstanding of each other. Certainly in the South China Sea
Speaker 8: and the East China Sea, we see the Chinese military
Speaker 8: the PLA being very aggressive. Certainly around the Philippine Islands,
Speaker 8: we see that and the rook of having a misjudgment,
Speaker 8: whether it's you know, aircraft ships at sea, there's always
Speaker 8: that danger. And one of the things I think that
Speaker 8: also concerns US is the Chinese military has been very
Speaker 8: aggressive in their actions. They have not been tested since
Speaker 8: nineteen seventy nine in a war with Vietnam, and we
Speaker 8: just are concerned that the rhetoric that comes out of
Speaker 8: the Chinese military that is almost sometimes that they're almost
Speaker 8: itching for a fight where the US is trying to
Speaker 8: have clear lines of communication open so we don't run
Speaker 8: into a situation like that.
Speaker 2: You mentioned China's plans for twenty twenty five General it
Speaker 2: was in Air Force General Mike Minihan who just about
Speaker 2: a year ago was out with a memo that some
Speaker 2: reporters got their hands on, urging his officers to prepare
Speaker 2: for a conflict with China as soon as twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: Will he end up looking right?
Speaker 4: You know?
Speaker 8: I think our perspective on that is as you weigh
Speaker 8: it all, you know, as we look at the framework
Speaker 8: we kind of use, is we use as dime as diplomacy, information,
Speaker 8: military and economic levers of power. Those are the things
Speaker 8: that kind of you can use as a national power
Speaker 8: to be able to try to coerce and compromise with
Speaker 8: a competitor. And I think in this case, if you
Speaker 8: really look at Gping in the Chinese Communist Party, the
Speaker 8: one thing they want to do is stay in power.
Speaker 8: Staying in power means keeping their people happy, and I
Speaker 8: think economically that's the most important thing for them right now,
Speaker 8: is to try to lead the globe economically. So though
Speaker 8: we see that they put out the rhetoric that by
Speaker 8: twenty twenty seven they'd be ready to take Taiwan militarily,
Speaker 8: we certainly have to be ready, and the Biden administration
Speaker 8: is doing everything they can to try to deter anything
Speaker 8: like that occurring. But at the end of the day,
Speaker 8: in the near term, though, they've got the capability that
Speaker 8: continues to grow and in many ways outpace our own
Speaker 8: US military. What we're seeing though is I think they
Speaker 8: want to lead more globally, and that's why I think
Speaker 8: you see this discussion between the Biden administration, between jan
Speaker 8: and Yellen, with Commerce Secretary Raimondo, all going towards this
Speaker 8: economic area, because I think that's where we really see
Speaker 8: the Chinese trying to dominate, and they would do this strategically,
Speaker 8: be starting with things like you know in Africa, in
Speaker 8: in South America, in the Caribbean, those areas where you
Speaker 8: can get these rare earth minerals, things like cobalt and lithium,
Speaker 8: and put them ahead in some of these high tech
Speaker 8: areas to include some of the green energy capabilities.
Speaker 2: He's a board member at Academy Securities. Retired Lieutenant General
Speaker 2: Robert Walsh, It's great to have you with us in general.
Speaker 2: Thank you for your insights today. Thanks for listening to
Speaker 2: the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if
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