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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Roudoro with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: We're going to turn to China right now in a

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Speaker 2: very important trip for Janet Yellen, her second and nine

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Speaker 2: months to China. It's going to be followed by a

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Speaker 2: trip by the Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, and as

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Speaker 2: we try to get a sense of following the readouts

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Speaker 2: and some of the other information that we've seen, try

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Speaker 2: to get a sense of what came of this trip.

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Speaker 2: We want to connect with Craig Singleton and have been

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Speaker 2: looking forward to this conversation with us from the China

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Speaker 2: program at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, where

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Speaker 2: he is Senior director. Craig, it's great to see you.

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Speaker 2: You can read the readout, you can read the news

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Speaker 2: coverage and get different percent I want yours. Was this

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Speaker 2: a productive trip for Janet Yellen? And if so, what

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Speaker 2: do we get for it?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: No, thanks, Joe. I mean I think the short answer

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Speaker 4: is that Secretary Yellen's trip accomplished very little. Secretary Yellen

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Speaker 4: is many things, chief among them, and accomplished I think,

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Speaker 4: respected economists, but she's not an enforcer, you know, She's

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Speaker 4: not the person you send in when you want to

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Speaker 4: throw down the hammer, so to speak. And Chinese leaders

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Speaker 4: more or less dismissed out of hand all of her concerns,

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Speaker 4: which doesn't particularly bode well I think for next steps.

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Speaker 4: I think, from my perspective, at least her trip sort

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Speaker 4: of extends this illusion of constructive engagement between the two superpowers,

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Speaker 4: but without actually addressing the core issues that are sort

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Speaker 4: of fueling today's tensions. And you know, separately, for its part,

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Speaker 4: at least, you know, China was very keen to capitalize

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Speaker 4: on this trip for propaganda purposes, using Secretary Yellen's visit

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Speaker 4: to project calm to investors who are very concerned about

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Speaker 4: China's overall economic health, health, and China's meager growth prospects.

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Speaker 2: So there are a lot of audiences here when it

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Speaker 2: comes to the audience in Beijing, Craig, what does it

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Speaker 2: mean for an American official to pay a visit and

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Speaker 2: ask you to rethink the way you're managing your economy,

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Speaker 2: in this case boosting its manufacturing capacity, saying hey, you

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Speaker 2: guys really ought to worry about increasing domestic demand because

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Speaker 2: that's not working as well for us. What's the reaction?

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Speaker 4: No, I mean, I think it's been pretty clear for

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Speaker 4: some time now that China's leadership has very little to

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Speaker 4: maybe no interest in enacting major structural reforms to address

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Speaker 4: the country's current economic challenges. So what we're seeing right

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Speaker 4: is a sort of back to the future approach in

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Speaker 4: which China floods international markets with cheap, heavily subsidized goods

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Speaker 4: to stimulate growth. And one major concern, for example, centers

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Speaker 4: around electric vehicles. You know, China is intent on dominating

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Speaker 4: this emerging sector. They see it as critical to leading

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Speaker 4: the next industrial revolution. And with China's EV market already

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Speaker 4: very heavily saturated, you know, China's thinking about dumping EV's

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Speaker 4: on global markets, including here in the United States, which

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Speaker 4: would have a pretty serious impact on US automotive manufacturers,

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Speaker 4: US laborers here. And so while countries like Brazil and

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Speaker 4: Argentina are getting ahead of Chinese dumping and raising tariffs

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Speaker 4: to protect their industries, that the Biden administration has yet

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Speaker 4: to do that, and I think that's really a major

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Speaker 4: mistake and a real missed opportunity here.

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Speaker 2: Well, so what does that mean for tariffs going forward?

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Speaker 2: If we're dumping evs or solar panels, whatever it is, Craig,

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Speaker 2: this administration actually has not had a lot of sunlight

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Speaker 2: between itself and the Trump administration when it comes to

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Speaker 2: tariff although Donald Trump is talking about much higher levels

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Speaker 2: if he were to be reelected. How about for the

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Speaker 2: Biden White House?

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Speaker 1: Sure?

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Speaker 4: I mean think what we're seeing right now is a

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Speaker 4: reflection not of US policy on China, but global pushback

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Speaker 4: to China. You're seeing talk about raising tariffs and protective

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Speaker 4: measures across Latin America, across Europe that's mostly in response

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Speaker 4: to Chinese behavior. I think what the corollary to me

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Speaker 4: is when the Obama Biden administration was really trying to

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Speaker 4: tackle Chinese hacking and cyber attacks against the United States,

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Speaker 4: the Chinese out of the gate admitted those are activities

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Speaker 4: they don't engage in, just like today they acknowledge and

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Speaker 4: say that we don't engage in dumping and non market practices.

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Speaker 4: And a great deal of time is spent negotiating a

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Speaker 4: deal like that. Cyber deal, and then what do the

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Speaker 4: Chinese do. They go about and actually increase the number

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Speaker 4: of cyber attacks against the United States with absolutely no

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Speaker 4: punishment from Washington. So I think China's perspective is, let's

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Speaker 4: buy some time here, get ourselves out of this economic

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Speaker 4: chaos and crisis that we've created for ourselves, and do

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Speaker 4: so at the expense of American workers and American companies

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Speaker 4: and increasingly worldwide competition as well.

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Speaker 2: Spending time with Craig Singleton here on balance of power,

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Speaker 2: what do you make of the proximity of this visit

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Speaker 2: and Joe Biden's meeting with PRESIDENTI she I guess it

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Speaker 2: was about a week ago at this point, Craig, were

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Speaker 2: those companion conversations if you will, did that meeting with

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Speaker 2: the President's need to come first?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean they had a call, you know, President

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Speaker 4: Biden and Shooting had a call last Monday. I think

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Speaker 4: there's a strong effort to sort of portray the bilateral

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Speaker 4: relationship as stable or improving, But I think it's sort

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Speaker 4: of a fallacy here. You know, since she and Biden

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Speaker 4: met in San Francisco last fall, the US intelligence community

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Speaker 4: has confirmed the Chinese are actively meddling and interfering in

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Speaker 4: our election. Chinese state directed hackers have been identified as

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Speaker 4: not just accessing, but seeking to compromise our critical infrastructure

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Speaker 4: like our ports and electrical grids. Chinese Coast Guard vessels

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Speaker 4: are ramming Philippine ships in the South China see knowing

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Speaker 4: full well that the Philippines and the US are defense allies.

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Speaker 4: Those are hardly I think reassuring. I think for me

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Speaker 4: at least, you know the principal paradox of the Biden

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Speaker 4: Administration's China policy in its unintended consequences. Right, so far

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Speaker 4: from mitigating Beijing's brashness, a lot of these recent diplomatic

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Speaker 4: overtures having boldened. She and I think with Washington's attention

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Speaker 4: diverted to Ukraine and Israel and to a number of

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Speaker 4: impressing domestic matters, we're continuing to accommodate Beijing's aggression today

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Speaker 4: and that really risks Chinese overreach tomorrow and maybe miscalculation

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Speaker 4: or war.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know you mentioned miscalculation. Isn't it something We

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Speaker 2: have diplomatic messaging like this between Janet Yellen and Beijing,

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Speaker 2: the outreach that we see a personal visit while we're

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Speaker 2: talking today about the Biden administration laying out billions of

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Speaker 2: dollars to Taiwan's semiconductors so they can come here and

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Speaker 2: build foundries in the United States. As we talk about

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Speaker 2: banning TikTok, if it's not spun off from byte dance, Craig,

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Speaker 2: how do you have all of these at.

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Speaker 4: Once expensive proposition? You really have to think about, can

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Speaker 4: we wage industrial policy? Well, I think at least of

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Speaker 4: the TikTok front. You know, the clock is ticking on

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Speaker 4: this TikTok bill. You know, despite passing overwhelmingly in the House,

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Speaker 4: Senate leadership, particularly Senator Maria Cantwell, is not even scheduled

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Speaker 4: a hearing, let alone a vote on the legislation, and

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Speaker 4: in the meantime, TikTok's lobbying team, which is the largest

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Speaker 4: of any Chinese company in Washington, is aggressively moving to

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Speaker 4: kill this bill. I think there's you know, there is

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Speaker 4: really though, next to nothing from stopping a bold national

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Speaker 4: security focused senator from attaching the TikTok bill to a

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Speaker 4: must pass piece of legislation like the National Defense Authorization

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Speaker 4: Act that would absolutely ruffle some feathers here in DC.

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Speaker 4: But at the end of the day. I'm not sure

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Speaker 4: senators can run or be perceived as being weak on

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Speaker 4: China during an election year. And President Biden has already

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Speaker 4: given them top cover by saying I'll sign this thing

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Speaker 4: the second it hits my desk.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's true. Are senators hearing the right pick? You

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Speaker 2: mentioned the lobbyists and managed to snuff out this story

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Speaker 2: for a good year in Washington. Somehow it came back.

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Speaker 2: This gets a new breath of life in the House.

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Speaker 2: Senators have been briefed by the White House, They've had

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Speaker 2: classified security briefings on this graig or they hearing what

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Speaker 2: they need to.

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Speaker 4: I think they are. No one that I'm aware of.

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Speaker 4: No member of Congress has walked out of those intelligence

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Speaker 4: briefings saying TikTok's not a threat. I think what they

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Speaker 4: do sort of disagree on is whether this proposal legislation

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Speaker 4: which seeks a forced divestment, not a ban, a forced

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Speaker 4: divestment of chokers, is the way to go. And I

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Speaker 4: think that there's some discussion about whether the bill needs

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Speaker 4: to be expanded in terms of scope. And I think

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Speaker 4: ultimately those efforts, a lot of them which are being

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Speaker 4: championed by TikTok's lobbying team are aimed at killing the bill,

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Speaker 4: making it too big so that it fails. I think

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Speaker 4: in this case is narrow, it's focused. It's been reviewed

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Speaker 4: and drafted in partnership with the Department of Justice to

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Speaker 4: ensure that it can stay and court challenge and there

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Speaker 4: certainly would be one. But at the end of the day,

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Speaker 4: we're approaching a consequential election in a few months. The

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Speaker 4: intelligence community has made clear that TikTok is the most

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Speaker 4: important tool that the Chinese have to influence public opinion.

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Speaker 4: It's time to a.

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Speaker 2: Bank you, Craig Singleton. Great to see you, Craig, Thank

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Speaker 2: you for joining here on a Monday, Senior director of

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Speaker 2: the China Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can

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Speaker 2: to hear the last interview if you wanted talk about

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Speaker 2: on Eclipse Day. I suspect that the nation's capital will

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Speaker 2: come to a bit of a halt a couple of

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Speaker 2: hours from now when the eclipse happens. We're going to

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Speaker 2: speak a little later this hour with Julie Fine, who's

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Speaker 2: not in Washington, but in the Zone of Totality. Has

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Speaker 2: anyone made an album called that yet? Zone of Total?

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Speaker 2: Is there a song Zone of Totality? Wouldn't that be forthcoming?

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Speaker 2: We'll connect with Julie where apparently people are flying from

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Speaker 2: all over the country to be part of this as

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Speaker 2: we assemble our panel now on the day that Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump makes his announcement on abortion. This has been teased

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Speaker 2: since the beginning of last week. Didn't know if he'd

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Speaker 2: go for six weeks, maybe fifteen in the end. None

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Speaker 2: of the above, avoiding taking a stand on a national

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Speaker 2: band pointing to the States. Here's Donald Trump in a

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Speaker 2: video released a short time ago.

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Speaker 5: My view is now that we have abortioning where everybody

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Speaker 5: wanted it from a legal standpoint, The States will determine

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Speaker 5: by vote or legislation, or perhaps both, and whatever they

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Speaker 5: decide must be the law of the land.

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Speaker 2: In this case, the law of the state, the state Land.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump from earlier today, he promised an announcement on

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Speaker 2: truth's social last night, and there we have it. Our

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Speaker 2: panel today, our signature panel. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano

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Speaker 2: back together again, Bloomberg Politics contributors. Genie, what do you

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Speaker 2: think if you're Joe Biden, this is good news. Correct.

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Speaker 2: You can keep running the ads you already made. You

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Speaker 2: can make abortion the same issue that you have been

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Speaker 2: framing it since the beginning of this campaign. What do

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Speaker 2: you think?

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Speaker 6: Oh? I agree. This is what we call a non

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Speaker 6: announcement announcement. And he shouldn't have been forecasting that we

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Speaker 6: should expect so much from his non announcement announcement because

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Speaker 6: he heightened expectations and then of course let them drop

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Speaker 6: because what he's saying is that nothing is going to change.

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Speaker 6: It will still be up to the states. And just

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Speaker 6: as we know electorally, the still being up to the

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Speaker 6: states is what we've had since the Dobbs decision, and

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Speaker 6: that has helped Democrats, so they've got to be celebrating

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Speaker 6: in the campaign over there for Joe Biden at least

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Speaker 6: a little bit, knowing that they don't have to remake

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Speaker 6: these commercials.

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean, you know, and I say that facetiously.

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Speaker 2: Then again, Rick, maybe you're going to tell me that

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Speaker 2: this is the other way around. If he had reached

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Speaker 2: for six or fifteen or twelve weeks that is, and

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Speaker 2: talked about a national band in any specific way, he

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Speaker 2: would have handcuffed himself to a policy.

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Speaker 7: Right, what do you make of this just depends on

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Speaker 7: who he was trying to make happy. I mean, if

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Speaker 7: he was trying to play to the bass and wanted

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Speaker 7: to keep them excited about this issue, then he would

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Speaker 7: have said that there are a lot of good proposals

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Speaker 7: like Lindsey Graham's on a national bill. And he could

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Speaker 7: have said that, you know, there are legitimate debates to

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Speaker 7: be had around the tie, and maybe even had suggested

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Speaker 7: fifteen weeks or something that has become a bit of

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Speaker 7: a safe harbor, like Governor Younkin tried to do in

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Speaker 7: Virginia last election year. So there are a lot of

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Speaker 7: options he could have taken. I think he took the

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Speaker 7: one that was going to get him the most blowback

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Speaker 7: from his base, and we see that from Lindsey Graham

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Speaker 7: and from Mike Pence today, which is, hey, wait a minute,

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Speaker 7: we never said this was just up to the states,

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Speaker 7: and so now he's got exactly the opposite of I

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Speaker 7: think what he really wanted, which was to be able to.

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Speaker 2: Have it both ways.

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Speaker 7: And at this stage, no Democrats going to think this

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Speaker 7: is a great idea to have Donald Trump protecting your

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Speaker 7: moortion rights, and no Republican is going to be satisfied

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Speaker 7: with his answer, So.

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Speaker 2: I'd say, yeah, why even go there? To your point, Rick,

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Speaker 2: Mike Pence just tweeted, this is a long tweet, by

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Speaker 2: the way, I didn't know you could tweet this many characters.

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Speaker 2: President Trump's retreat on the right to life is a

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Speaker 2: slap in the face to the millions of pro life

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Speaker 2: Americans who voted for him in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. Rick,

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Speaker 2: he can't lose evangelicals over this, can he?

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Speaker 8: Yeah? He can.

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Speaker 2: In fact, Susan B.

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Speaker 7: Anthony released a similar announcement right after he posted his video,

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Speaker 7: and they represent millions of right to life voters and

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Speaker 7: they are completely aghast at the president's decision. Look I mean,

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Speaker 7: he owns getting rid of Roe v. Wade, he might

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Speaker 7: as well embrace it, take what he can out of it.

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Speaker 7: It does show, I would say, if I'm reading the

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Speaker 7: tea leaves that they know the polls that you know

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Speaker 7: Genie talks about all the time, which is abortion can

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Speaker 7: get Democratic horror voters and swing women in suburbs excited.

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Speaker 7: And they're trying to put some air out of that tire.

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Speaker 7: But I think they just added gasoline to the flames.

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Speaker 2: It's incredible, so interesting to think of the way this

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Speaker 2: day is turning for these two candidates. Then Jennie Joe

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Speaker 2: Biden is in Madison, Wisconsin, in a college town, talking

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Speaker 2: about forgiving student loan debt, and it appears, based on

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Speaker 2: the way this would all work or not work, that

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Speaker 2: he can carry this for the duration of the campaign.

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Speaker 2: So you've got abortion and student loan debt at the

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Speaker 2: top of the stump speech here for Joe Biden. He's

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Speaker 2: obviously got Israel and a number of other issues that

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Speaker 2: are still dogging him. But when it comes to domestic policy,

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Speaker 2: these are two that you might consider in his favor.

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Speaker 2: How do you look at it?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, you might, I mean, certainly abortion I think student

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Speaker 6: loan is a bit tougher for Joe Biden. He's going

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Speaker 6: to say it, he's going to run on it. Nobody

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Speaker 6: if indeed he's able to push this through with this

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Speaker 6: second try, it's not going to be felt in time

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Speaker 6: for the election, which may be a good thing if

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Speaker 6: it's overturned. So, you know, I think that's more of

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Speaker 6: a mixed bag on the campaign trail. And you know,

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Speaker 6: I would just say that a real problem for Donald

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Speaker 6: Trump to go back to that for a minute on

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Speaker 6: the abortion issue, is here is somebody who has made

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Speaker 6: his name saying I am not a politician, I am

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Speaker 6: not part of the you know, the swamp that is Washington,

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Speaker 6: d C. And yet what do we have here today

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Speaker 6: somebody who's trying to play both ends against the middle.

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Speaker 6: This is Donald Trump trying to be the poll and

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Speaker 6: he is not doing it very successfully. He's getting blowback

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Speaker 6: from all sides. And that is something else the Biden

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Speaker 6: campaign can use, because as much as we want to

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Speaker 6: talk about positive things, both campaigns can use to their advantage.

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Speaker 6: This campaign is going to be about the negative about

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Speaker 6: the other guy. Nobody likes either one of these guys

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Speaker 6: enough to vote for them, but they're voting against the

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Speaker 6: other guy and abortion and Donald Trump as a regular

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Speaker 6: old politician is not a good thing for Donald Trump.

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Speaker 6: And the campaign's going to use.

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Speaker 2: That just quickly. Genie, you spend time with students all day.

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Speaker 2: You're not hearing anything any hopefulness about this announcement today.

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Speaker 2: This is you know, earned once when it comes to

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Speaker 2: this issue. Show me what you got, Joe Biden, what

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Speaker 2: are you hearing?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, we don't hear much about it because they've heard

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Speaker 6: so much talk about it. They want to see action.

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Speaker 6: Without that action, these young people are paying. And you

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Speaker 6: know this well, Joe, because you have a son who will.

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Speaker 2: Be going to college.

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Speaker 6: It's almost sensive and yeah, exactly, and I've got one

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Speaker 6: in myself, and you know it's expensive and these kids

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Speaker 6: have no relief. It is a travesty in our system.

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Speaker 6: But it's not won. Any president, forget about Joe Biden

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Speaker 6: can resolve on their own. It requires Congress, and we

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Speaker 6: don't see a Congress that's going to act on this.

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Speaker 2: Rick, what do you think of the big fundraiser over

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Speaker 2: the weekend we talked about Radio City Music Hall for

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Speaker 2: the three Democratic presidents. It was Biden Obama Clinton, a

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Speaker 2: new record week goes by Donald Trump tops that by

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Speaker 2: a lot, fifty point five million dollars, the biggest event

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Speaker 2: we've seen of its kind at a billionaire's mansion in

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Speaker 2: Palm Beach. Was this just about making a point or

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Speaker 2: does it actually help his campaign?

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Speaker 8: Oh?

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Speaker 7: I think it absolutely helps his campaign. And part of

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Speaker 7: what helps his campaign is he's making a point and

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Speaker 7: he needs the money.

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Speaker 2: That's actually number one.

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Speaker 7: And when you can write almost nine hundred thousand dollars

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Speaker 7: checks into a political campaign and you've got a bunch

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Speaker 7: of billionaire buddies, then you would expect to have this

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Speaker 7: kind of an event. And kudos to the Trump folks

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Speaker 7: for pulling it off. It's not easy, and they did

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Speaker 7: it with a lot less negative attention than the Biden

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Speaker 7: twenty five million dollar contributions in New York City.

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Speaker 2: But they're going to need that cash.

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Speaker 7: They're still lagging behind the Biden armada of the DNC,

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Speaker 7: his packs, and his campaign, so they're playing catchup. But

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Speaker 7: they caught up a lot of ways this weekend.

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Speaker 2: Huh, fascinating, genie, Is Joe Biden going to try to

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Speaker 2: top him?

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Speaker 9: Now?

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Speaker 2: What can we do here? In one weekend.

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Speaker 6: Oh yeah, I think he's gonna try. I don't know

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Speaker 6: if he'll get there, but you've got to feel good

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Speaker 6: if you're the Biden campaign. The fundraising aspect, unlike the polls,

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Speaker 6: is in his favor. Still, he has a you know,

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Speaker 6: the small donors to go back to Donald Trump's billionaire

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Speaker 6: friends are you know now they are cut out of

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Speaker 6: this thing, at least legally unless they're going to go

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Speaker 6: to the super pack. So it's a problem for Donald

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Speaker 6: Trump not to mention, he's got to pay off a

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Speaker 6: lot more lawyers than Joe Biden does at this point.

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Speaker 2: They're going to be back next hour. Rick Davis and

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Speaker 2: Jeanie Shanzo our signature panel on Balance of Power. You

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Speaker 2: couldn't have a Monday without them. I'm Joe Matthew on

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Speaker 2: this eclipse day in Washington. We don't get the zone

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Speaker 2: of totality here. We're off to the side. I guess

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Speaker 2: kind of like New York City is. We're going to

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Speaker 2: get what is it, We get like a two thirds something.

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Speaker 2: It'll get kind of dark, it'll feel like dusk here

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Speaker 2: for a moment. No one's traveling here to see the eclipse.

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Speaker 2: People are traveling, though, it's a place is like Texas

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Speaker 2: to be a part of this. They're spending a bunch

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Speaker 2: of money on air planes to get there. They're spending

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Speaker 2: money on Mexican food in Dallas when they arrive. That's

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Speaker 2: where we find Julie Fine, Texas bureau chief for Bloomberg,

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Speaker 2: in the middle of this all can't find a place

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Speaker 2: to park or a place to eat. From what I understand, Julie,

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Speaker 2: is this all worth it for you? What if you

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Speaker 2: don't see the what if the weather doesn't cooperate. This

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Speaker 2: whole travel aspect confounds me.

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Speaker 10: Well, it's worth it for me because I'm here.

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Speaker 2: But as for somebody, Yeah, you don't have to travel.

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Speaker 10: Right, I don't have to go anywhere. I just have

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Speaker 10: to walk outside, work, put on the glasses and look up.

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Speaker 10: I think for somebody that's coming here, there will be

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Speaker 10: you will see something. You will absolutely see something. It

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Speaker 10: may not be absolutely perfect, but it'll be dark, it'll

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Speaker 10: be dusk for a little while. I think it's an event,

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Speaker 10: and I think people are looking at it that way

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Speaker 10: unless they're really specifically into the science of it. A

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Speaker 10: lot of people made a weekend here in Dallas, which

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Speaker 10: is a very easy thing to do.

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Speaker 2: So I think for.

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Speaker 10: People that came, while it may not be perfect, it

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Speaker 10: made for a nice couple of days. It certainly made

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Speaker 10: a nice couple of days for Texas. You've got econ.

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Speaker 10: I miss saying that this brought in more than four

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Speaker 10: hundred million dollars.

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Speaker 6: For the state.

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Speaker 10: There is apparently, according to the mayor, four hundred thousand

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Speaker 10: people in the city of Dallas right now. So a

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Speaker 10: lot of people head into Texas this weekend.

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Speaker 2: Now, I don't know what. By the way, I'm asking

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Speaker 2: about weather. I see, you've got what seventy four degrees now,

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Speaker 2: you're partly sunny today. You could still pull this off,

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Speaker 2: right Yeah.

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Speaker 10: I mean we're watching the forecast as they come minute

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Speaker 10: by minute. Sure it's a little bit cloudy, but they're

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Speaker 10: saying absolutely, do not lose hope. Yes, it's definitely a

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Speaker 10: little bit cloudy. It is not perfect conditions. But I mean,

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Speaker 10: whether the weather forecasters and meteorologists are saying, you know,

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Speaker 10: do not lose hope on this.

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Speaker 2: Four hundred thousand did you say in town?

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Speaker 10: Yeah, the mayor estimated I received an email yesterday the

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Speaker 10: mayor estimated four hundred thousand people in the Dallas area,

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Speaker 10: and I don't forget we've got four work and we've

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Speaker 10: got the surrounding suburbs around here. But look at a

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Speaker 10: super Bowl, Joe. I mean a stadium hole one hundred

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Speaker 10: thousand people, the largest stadium, so you see a bunch

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Speaker 10: of people come in for that. That is not four

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Speaker 10: hundred thousand people. So just to kind of show you

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Speaker 10: how many people are around, that's a really good example.

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Speaker 2: So Texas already won, and the states in between. This

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Speaker 2: thing's gonna arc all the way up across. If you're

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Speaker 2: with us on YouTube, we're showing you the zone of

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Speaker 2: totality all the way up through Maine. Does it have

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Speaker 2: a festive feel? I mean, you're nothing but sprawl down

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Speaker 2: there in Dallas, right, Can you even tell that everyone's there?

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Speaker 10: Oh, you can tell everyone's here for sure. There are people.

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Speaker 2: So it's a mob scene.

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Speaker 10: It's a mob scene. Yeah, it's very Yeah, it's an obscene.

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Speaker 10: You can definitely sense that people are here. I mean

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00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 10: a lot of schools are closed. Some people are really

437
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:45,320
Speaker 10: treating this as a snow day, so yeah, you can

438
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 10: certainly feel that this is going on. I mean I

439
00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:49,640
Speaker 10: got in here to park this morning, I'm like, Wow,

440
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,480
Speaker 10: this is the easiest day I've ever had parking. So yes,

441
00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:55,639
Speaker 10: people are definitely very into the eclipse.

442
00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 2: All right, you got your glasses? Are they easy to find? I? Actually,

443
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:01,159
Speaker 2: you know, by the way, I have big apologies to

444
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:04,399
Speaker 2: Craig Singleton. I probably made everyone feel bad because I

445
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:05,920
Speaker 2: didn't you know, I was going to be too cool

446
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,399
Speaker 2: to wear glasses. I'm going to encourage all of our guests.

447
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:09,960
Speaker 2: But they're clip.

448
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 10: Oh absolutely glasses.

449
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:13,000
Speaker 2: You've got them handy.

450
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 5: Yeah.

451
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 10: Well, I was so worried there were going to be

452
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 10: no glasses. I ordered for the office like three months ago.

453
00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:20,400
Speaker 2: I took a poll.

454
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:21,880
Speaker 10: How many of you were going to be here?

455
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 8: I ordered?

456
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 10: Yeah, you can get You can get glasses pretty much

457
00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 10: all over the place. I was in Target yesterday. They

458
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 10: still had glasses. There were tents on the street. I

459
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 10: think it was selling glasses. You can get glasses, get that.

460
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, you can't find them anywhere around here. I even

461
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 2: went to the library over the weekend. It had been

462
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:40,560
Speaker 2: a long time since I had tried that. Can we

463
00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:43,400
Speaker 2: see the sun on YouTube? We have a sun cam.

464
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,199
Speaker 2: There's an eclipse cam here, Julie. I don't know if

465
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 2: we can show it there. You go. I never thought

466
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:52,640
Speaker 2: i'd share a box with the sun before, Julie, thank you.

467
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:57,359
Speaker 2: Don't stare at the eclipse without your glasses. Our Texas

468
00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:01,680
Speaker 2: Bureau chief in the throes of activity on this eclipse day,

469
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:05,119
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew without a pair of glasses. But Kaylee

470
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 2: Lines will join the conversation next. We've got a lot

471
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,879
Speaker 2: to talk about on Balance of Power. Only here on Bloomberg.

472
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch

473
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:21,399
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

474
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,920
Speaker 1: Froudoto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

475
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

476
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:33,680
Speaker 11: I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington, where

477
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 11: we are not sadly in the path of totality today

478
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:40,119
Speaker 11: for the eclipse is Wisconsin in the path of totality,

479
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 11: because that's where President Biden.

480
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 2: Is going to send his pointing. I guess he'd have

481
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 2: something to look at there, if not total the zone

482
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 2: of totality. I feel like there needs to be an

483
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:50,680
Speaker 2: album recorded and think you'd make a lot of money

484
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,000
Speaker 2: right now. I've heard so much about this. We spoke

485
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 2: with our own Julie Fine in the zone of totality

486
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:57,679
Speaker 2: to the south where Kaylee, it's cloudy today.

487
00:24:57,960 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 11: That's a big bummer. Yeah, So I guess we'll get

488
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,679
Speaker 11: to see if President Biden experiences the eclipse or to

489
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 11: a degree in Wisconsin. But of course he's there with

490
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:08,199
Speaker 11: a very specific message today, Joe, and that is that

491
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 11: he would like to provide more student loan relief to

492
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 11: the Americans who are saddled with that debt.

493
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 2: And here you thought that this was not happening, remembering

494
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:19,399
Speaker 2: the Supreme Court shot down the first attempt to do this. Now, Kaylee,

495
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 2: it's a plan B. We're talking about as many as

496
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 2: twenty six million Americans. The question is will it work.

497
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,360
Speaker 2: That remains a question, and it could for the balance

498
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:29,639
Speaker 2: of this campaign. And that's where we start today with

499
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 2: Jordan Fabie and Bloomberg White House reporter is with us

500
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 2: now for more on this. Jordan, it's good to see you.

501
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,359
Speaker 2: What makes this different than the first one? Is is

502
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:40,160
Speaker 2: it the more strict criteria? How's the White House going

503
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:40,680
Speaker 2: about this?

504
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,359
Speaker 12: It's still quite broad based, Joe, but the White House

505
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:48,200
Speaker 12: has tried to make it more targeted in order to

506
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:52,359
Speaker 12: pass legal muster. So they've targeted groups like borrowers whose

507
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:58,119
Speaker 12: balances exceed their original principles. Borrowers who might qualify for

508
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:01,639
Speaker 12: other federal programs have again enrolled. And so the hope

509
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 12: is that by tailoring it a little more narrowly, they

510
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:07,960
Speaker 12: will be able to pass muster. But we'll have to

511
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 12: see if the courts agree with that approach.

512
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:13,640
Speaker 11: Yeah, and of course we'll hear from the president about

513
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 11: this this afternoon. He's going to be speaking in Madison, Wisconsin,

514
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 11: where of course the University of Wisconsin is and that

515
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:22,640
Speaker 11: was also one of the areas in the Wisconsin primary

516
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 11: that we just saw earlier this month in which he

517
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,680
Speaker 11: struggled with the uninstructed vote. A lot of young voters,

518
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:29,879
Speaker 11: as we have seen in college towns all across the

519
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 11: Democratic primary states, are voicing protest over his policy surrounding

520
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:37,200
Speaker 11: Israel in the ongoing war in Gaza. Is this give

521
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 11: them something so you can try to get them back,

522
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 11: knowing they're upset with you over Israel, try to make

523
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:43,200
Speaker 11: some progress on the student loan front.

524
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:44,960
Speaker 8: Yeah.

525
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:47,199
Speaker 12: As you mentioned, Kaylee, these college towns are sort of

526
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 12: ground zero for all of President Biden's problems. You mentioned

527
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 12: the Israel, Gaza War. This student loan issue is a

528
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 12: big issue for young voters, gen Z voters who we

529
00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:02,000
Speaker 12: need to show up in November. I think we had

530
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 12: pullings showing them falling away from President Biden after they

531
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:08,680
Speaker 12: strongly supported him in twenty twenty. He's going to need

532
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:11,840
Speaker 12: voters in these college towns like Madison State College in

533
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:14,440
Speaker 12: Pennsylvania to name a couple to come out for him

534
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 12: in November, and so he's starting today.

535
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:17,919
Speaker 4: You know.

536
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 12: The risk is that he'll go to Madison and you know,

537
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:24,680
Speaker 12: I'm sure there'll be protesters there, but the white hoping

538
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,880
Speaker 12: that their message isn't drowned out and that this appeal

539
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 12: breaks through to those voters.

540
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 2: Some impressive fundraising numbers. I'm sure you saw Jordan for

541
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:39,400
Speaker 2: March ninety million dollars for the Biden campaign and for

542
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 2: the DNC. He ends the month with one hundred and

543
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:46,240
Speaker 2: ninety two million dollars cash on hand, which is more

544
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:49,119
Speaker 2: than double what Donald Trump and the Republican Party of

545
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 2: the RNC have in their equivalent accounts here. It's interesting

546
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:56,280
Speaker 2: to me the money game that we're talking about. Donald

547
00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:58,440
Speaker 2: Trump's getting a lot of attention for setting a record

548
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 2: over the weekend with a fifty million dollar in one night,

549
00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:05,639
Speaker 2: doubling what Joe Biden managed when he was on stage

550
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 2: with Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. How would you frame

551
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:13,879
Speaker 2: the money contest right now if that's in fact what

552
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:15,119
Speaker 2: we should be paying attention to.

553
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 12: The fifty million dollar haul is impressive, but it also

554
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 12: illustrates how much ground President Trump has the makeup against

555
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 12: President Biden. Biden's war tress that is more than double

556
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 12: of what Trump says. And so why does this matter?

557
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:35,359
Speaker 12: Look ahead to later this summer, going into the fall,

558
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 12: when the election really starts to become the focus for people.

559
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:41,480
Speaker 12: Biden's going to have a lot more money at this

560
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:45,240
Speaker 12: point to open those offices in battleground states, to get

561
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 12: people out knocking on doors, handing out materials, and also

562
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 12: to flood the airwaves with advertisements. One of Biden's biggest

563
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 12: problems is that he's done all these things in his

564
00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 12: first term, whether it's the Inflation Reduction Act, whether it's

565
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:02,720
Speaker 12: this Act student Loans today, and he's not giving a

566
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 12: lot of credit for it among voters. So the advertising

567
00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 12: could help that breakthrough to people who haven't really been

568
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 12: tuning in. So those are the ways that you could

569
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 12: look for Biden's kind of outpaced Trump, but money isn't everything.

570
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 12: You know, Trump was outraised by Hillary Clinton in twenty

571
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 12: sixteen and he went on to win. So while it's important,

572
00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 12: it is not the decisive factor.

573
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 11: All right. Jordan Fabian, who covers the White House for

574
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 11: us here at Bloomberg, thank you so much for joining us.

575
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 11: And of course, as Jordan, there was talking about some

576
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 11: of these college towns and the issues resonating there, including

577
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 11: policy over Israel. We know, Joe that the White House

578
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 11: has been pushing and pushing more aggressively, so perhaps Israel

579
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 11: to do more in terms of humanitarian aid, protection of civilians,

580
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:48,040
Speaker 11: and that really has been the heart of the debate

581
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 11: over an operation in Rafa, that city where over a

582
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 11: million Palestinians have sought refuge. We just just get a

583
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 11: statement from Netanyahu about Rafa again. He says there is

584
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 11: a date for that. We just don't know what the

585
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 11: date is.

586
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really something. As you mentioned, they were pulling

587
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 2: out of certain areas to regroup, and that did give

588
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 2: us a sense that something might be about to happen here.

589
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 2: The administration has been adamant about this. No invasion at

590
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 2: all without a credible plan to evacuate civilians. I'm not

591
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:22,239
Speaker 2: sure that we see any reference to that here. It

592
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:25,480
Speaker 2: will happen, says NET and Yahoo. There is a date.

593
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 2: We did hear from the White House over the weekend

594
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 2: on this as well. When it comes to our deteriorating relationship.

595
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,280
Speaker 11: Yeah, this was something that Admiral John Kirby, who of

596
00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 11: course as a spokesman for the NSC, was asked about

597
00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 11: on ABC's this week and this is what he said.

598
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:44,719
Speaker 3: We have been increasingly frustrated. And again that was a

599
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 3: core message that the President delivered the Prime Minister of

600
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 3: Netniao in their phone call this week this past week.

601
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 3: If they've got to do more, they've got to make

602
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 3: changes now. The Prime Minister assured the President that he

603
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 3: would do that. We've seen some announcements in those early hours.

604
00:30:57,400 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 3: That's welcome. We got to see more. We've got to

605
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:00,320
Speaker 3: see it over time.

606
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 8: So for more.

607
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 11: We're joined now by Carmeil Arbitch. She is Atlantic Council

608
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:09,680
Speaker 11: Nonresident Senior Fellow for Middle East Programs. Kmeil, always great

609
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 11: to have you with us here on Bloomberg Television and Radio.

610
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:14,959
Speaker 11: As we hear from Admiral Kirby there the idea that

611
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 11: they've got to see more. They think they will see

612
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:19,800
Speaker 11: it over time. How much are we seeing already, not

613
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:21,640
Speaker 11: just in terms of the fact that there has now

614
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 11: been another corridor open for humanitarian aid and res For example,

615
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 11: they have the military has taken action with those who

616
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 11: were responsible for the World Central kitchen strike that resulted

617
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 11: in deaths of seven of those humanitarian aid workers. Are

618
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:39,480
Speaker 11: we seeing Israel actually come around to the US's way

619
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 11: of thinking, here are these relatively small steps that don't

620
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:44,960
Speaker 11: actually fundamentally change too much in terms of their policy.

621
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 9: Yeah, thanks so much. I think we are at a

622
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 9: fundamental change point in this war. It's not just that

623
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 9: Israel has pulled out of fun units, It's that they

624
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:57,480
Speaker 9: have pulled the majority of their troops out of Gaza

625
00:31:57,600 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 9: as they prepare to move to the next phase of war,

626
00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 9: which will likely be more pinpointed attacks. So I think

627
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 9: we are seeing a really significant shift here. Now how

628
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 9: that plays out is yet to be seen. I think

629
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 9: on the one hand, you have Nattaya, who's speaking to

630
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:16,240
Speaker 9: domestic audiences asserting over and over again that there will

631
00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 9: be an operation in Rafa, which many in Israel are

632
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 9: now starting to doubt, while at the same time pulling

633
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 9: out troops to prepare for what could be a breakthrough

634
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 9: in cease fire talks as part of Hamas's demands. So

635
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 9: we're really at an inflection point in this war right

636
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 9: now where we're seeing a shift in Israel's operation.

637
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 2: Well, should we doubt whether this invasion takes place? Now

638
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:43,800
Speaker 2: that we have this statement? Karmel, how do you read

639
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 2: what Netanyahu is saying only suggesting that there is a date.

640
00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 9: I think the question is what that operation is going

641
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 9: to look like. So twenty out of the twenty four

642
00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 9: battalions of Hamas's military have been dismantled, and the four

643
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:01,440
Speaker 9: that remain are in Rapha. So the question for Israel

644
00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 9: is what they are going to do, how and when

645
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 9: they are going to go into Rafa. Right now, as

646
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 9: I had mentioned, the ceasefire talks are really very close,

647
00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:14,120
Speaker 9: and there is a huge amount of international pressure, including

648
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 9: from the White House, which is exerting pressure now in

649
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 9: a way that it had not been throughout this war.

650
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:22,840
Speaker 9: We've seen a huge shift in US public opinion and

651
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 9: thinking about this war and then how the administration is

652
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 9: approaching it. And with that now we're starting to see

653
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:32,720
Speaker 9: a shift within the Israeli government as well.

654
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 11: Yeah, in part of the statement we got from net Niahu,

655
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 11: not just the suggestion that there is a date for

656
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 11: an entry into Rafa, he also said he has gotten

657
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 11: a report on those talks in Cairo. He says, we

658
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:45,000
Speaker 11: are working all the time for the achievement of our goals,

659
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 11: first of all, the return of all of our hostages

660
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 11: and Carmeil. As you talk about the international pressure on

661
00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:52,640
Speaker 11: net Nyahu and the Israeli government right now, it's also

662
00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:54,960
Speaker 11: worth noting there is domestic pressure as well. Once again,

663
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 11: over the weekend we saw thousands protesting calling for a

664
00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 11: deal that would secure the release of those hostages. How

665
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 11: should what's happening inside Israel a factor into our thinking

666
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:07,480
Speaker 11: about Netanyahu's likely moves as we move forward.

667
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:11,239
Speaker 9: It's very important. Ultimately, all politics are local, and so

668
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 9: you see Nasagna who continually speaking to both sides, both

669
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 9: to his far right government who he's trying to show

670
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:20,840
Speaker 9: muscle too, and that he will not coward international pressure,

671
00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:24,480
Speaker 9: and at the same time is responsive to the thousands

672
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 9: of Israelis we're taking to the streets to demand the

673
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:30,720
Speaker 9: release of more than one hundred and thirty hostages. Every

674
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 9: day that passes, the number of hostages that are killed grows.

675
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 9: It is now believed that about half of those hostages

676
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 9: are still alive, and so every day the pressure mounds.

677
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 2: I'm glad you mentioned that because there was a terrifying

678
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:51,399
Speaker 2: story in the Washington Post this morning about families parents

679
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:54,879
Speaker 2: of two boys in this case, who they thought two

680
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:58,920
Speaker 2: sons were being held hostage, hoping for their release for

681
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:02,800
Speaker 2: the last six months, only to learn that they had died,

682
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:07,840
Speaker 2: either during their captivity or as they were dragged into

683
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:13,280
Speaker 2: Gaza Carmel. To what extent are families in Israel losing hope?

684
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:17,880
Speaker 9: Yeah, there is a huge amount of pain in Israel

685
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 9: right now, not just over the hostage situation, but that

686
00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 9: Natagne who has yet to deliver on many of the

687
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:28,360
Speaker 9: fundamental promises he made about this war that includes dismantling Hamas,

688
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:32,480
Speaker 9: and while he's made significant military gains, Hamas still remains

689
00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:36,040
Speaker 9: in power in Gaza, the hostages have not been released.

690
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:39,239
Speaker 9: There is a huge amount of pain and suffering. More,

691
00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 9: the two hundred and fifty Israeli soldiers have been killed

692
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:45,040
Speaker 9: in this war in Gaza, and many Israelis feel that

693
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:49,279
Speaker 9: they are neither. They're not winning, and so Natanya who

694
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:51,720
Speaker 9: is under pressure to prove that that's not the case,

695
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 9: while at the same time to try to retain his

696
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:57,920
Speaker 9: position of power, which is becoming increasingly challenged.

697
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 11: There is still, as you have really alluded to, a

698
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:05,759
Speaker 11: ongoing threat from Hamas. There are still battalions that have

699
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:09,319
Speaker 11: not been dismantled. They're also Carmel, though might be more

700
00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:11,759
Speaker 11: of a threat from Iran directly, not just from an

701
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:15,319
Speaker 11: Iranian proxy like Hamas. We have heard in recent days

702
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:18,240
Speaker 11: that Israel's military is prepared to respond to a scenario

703
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:21,520
Speaker 11: that could develop if Iran retaliates for the strike on

704
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:26,440
Speaker 11: the embassy in Damascus earlier this month. What could we

705
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:28,880
Speaker 11: see from Iran? Do you think we could actually see

706
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:31,880
Speaker 11: some form of retaliation from Iran directly rather than this

707
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:34,959
Speaker 11: being done through proxies as we've seen in the past.

708
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 1: Yeah.

709
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:38,319
Speaker 9: I think the stakes around Iranian retaliation right now are

710
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 9: incredibly high for two reasons. One, the timing is going

711
00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 9: to matter a lot because the Israelis and Hamas are

712
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 9: so close to a ceasefire agreement. Anything that Iran does

713
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 9: right now could potentially derail that. So that's the first

714
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:53,799
Speaker 9: thing to keep an eye on. The Second thing that

715
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:55,879
Speaker 9: we're looking at is whether or not Iran is going

716
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:59,760
Speaker 9: to escalate. There have been dozens upon dozens of attacks

717
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:03,880
Speaker 9: dominating from Hezbalah, also on US assets across the region,

718
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:08,560
Speaker 9: and similarly Israeli attacks on Iranian assets, including those that

719
00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:12,719
Speaker 9: have increasingly targeted the IERGC and the Iranians directly. And

720
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:15,759
Speaker 9: we've seen that throughout the war, but up until this point,

721
00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:18,880
Speaker 9: it's really been at a relatively low simmer. It's been

722
00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:22,440
Speaker 9: kind of this medium medium heat, if you will. So

723
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:24,439
Speaker 9: the question now for Roun is whether or not they're

724
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:27,879
Speaker 9: going to increase that temperature. Most likely what we're going

725
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:30,280
Speaker 9: to see is some kind of attack on Israeli American

726
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:33,399
Speaker 9: assets overseas. I think the scenario in which they would

727
00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:36,879
Speaker 9: attack on Israeli soil remains pretty low, but would mark

728
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:39,400
Speaker 9: a significant escalation in this conflict.

729
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:43,239
Speaker 2: So where does this actually play out then? Is it

730
00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:47,759
Speaker 2: in Syria itself? Are we at c car Meal or

731
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:50,520
Speaker 2: does that have yet to present itself.

732
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 9: It really has yet to present itself, and the Iranians

733
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 9: have many options, and that includes everything from embassies or

734
00:37:56,920 --> 00:38:00,719
Speaker 9: Israel's diplomatic presence overseas in countries as are reaching in

735
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:04,319
Speaker 9: Latin America or Europe where the Israelis have already put

736
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:06,920
Speaker 9: their staff on alert. We could also be looking at

737
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:09,719
Speaker 9: US assets and the seas, and the US has of

738
00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:13,319
Speaker 9: course been working to tamp down on Huti attacks and

739
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 9: has done so relatively successfully in recent months. So we

740
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 9: could see really in any of these arenas around really

741
00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 9: planning up its rule and going after again either the

742
00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 9: US or the Israelis directly.

743
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:32,000
Speaker 2: Carmel, it's great to see you. Thanks for coming back

744
00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 2: to see us from the Atlantic Council, carmeil arbit on

745
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:37,759
Speaker 2: a day that we have learned, according to the Associated

746
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:40,359
Speaker 2: Press and now confirmed in a statement by Benjamin Ett

747
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:43,360
Speaker 2: Yaho Kayle, that a date has been set for the

748
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 2: invasion of Rafa. There's no sense, obviously, based on this conversation,

749
00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:49,840
Speaker 2: when that will be or in what form that it

750
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:50,239
Speaker 2: will take.

751
00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:52,480
Speaker 11: No, all he says is that it will happen in

752
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:56,160
Speaker 11: that victory for Israel requires an entry into Rafa and

753
00:38:56,200 --> 00:39:00,719
Speaker 11: the elimination of the remaining hamaspittalions there. So it becomes question, Joe,

754
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 11: of between now and whatever date ultimately is set for

755
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 11: this operation, what can be done for the million plus

756
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:10,799
Speaker 11: civilians in RAFA, can they be successfully move given aid

757
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:12,840
Speaker 11: protected as the US would like to see.

758
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:19,239
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

759
00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:22,399
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

760
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:25,080
Speaker 1: roud Oto with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also

761
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:28,640
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

762
00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:34,720
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

763
00:39:34,120 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 2: As Janet Yellen wraps the big trip for second to

764
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 2: China in nine months, and it's interesting as each member

765
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:42,719
Speaker 2: of the administration kind of delivers their own message here

766
00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:48,319
Speaker 2: Kayley creating a composite that Beijing can react to. In

767
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:52,719
Speaker 2: this case, though, urging our competitor to rethink their economic

768
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 2: strategy is an interesting way to go about it. Yeah.

769
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:58,360
Speaker 11: Well, her primary concern is that because China is dealing

770
00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 11: with kind of a multifaceted you in their own economy,

771
00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:03,799
Speaker 11: including the property sector, which has been really weak for

772
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:05,799
Speaker 11: some period of time, they've been investing a lot in

773
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:09,600
Speaker 11: their industrial base into manufacturing and potentially creating if you

774
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 11: listen to the Treasury Secretary's concerns, more supply than the

775
00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:16,320
Speaker 11: world is actually going to be able to absorb everything.

776
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:19,440
Speaker 11: The message that she brought the question is was heated?

777
00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:20,320
Speaker 11: Will it be heated?

778
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:24,600
Speaker 2: Well, that's true. Whether we're talking evs or solar panels.

779
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:27,600
Speaker 2: This has a direct impact on our industries here. It's

780
00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 2: not lost on us that today the administration announcing billions

781
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:35,320
Speaker 2: for Taiwan's semiconductor to come here to start building foundries.

782
00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:38,080
Speaker 11: Yep, another fab they're planning in Arizona. All of that,

783
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 11: of course, is part of a big push we have

784
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:43,520
Speaker 11: seen in semiconductors and chips in particular. But it all

785
00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:45,600
Speaker 11: speaks to this idea that the US is not trying

786
00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 11: to decouple from China. They are trying to diversify the

787
00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:52,479
Speaker 11: supply chain, including bringing more here at home, while also

788
00:40:52,600 --> 00:40:57,760
Speaker 11: normalizing this relationship simultaneously trying to protect national security interest

789
00:40:57,840 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 11: at the same time. It all is a very difficul

790
00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:02,360
Speaker 11: picture of that Jenny Yellen and others in the administration

791
00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:05,080
Speaker 11: face as they try to navigate this relationship. And we

792
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:07,520
Speaker 11: want to go now to someone who knows this relationship

793
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 11: quite well. He's Lieutenant General Robert Walsh, Academy Securities Advisory

794
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:14,640
Speaker 11: Board member. He's also a former commanding General of the

795
00:41:14,680 --> 00:41:17,719
Speaker 11: Marine Corps Combat Development Command General. Great to have you

796
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 11: here on Bloomberg Television and Radio. You helped develop the

797
00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:25,040
Speaker 11: twenty eighteen National Military Strategy and National Defense Strategy in

798
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 11: which China is defined as a strategic competitor. This is

799
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:32,440
Speaker 11: language that we hear a lot. What is your assessment

800
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:35,120
Speaker 11: right now of how the US is treating China in

801
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 11: this strategic competition? What exactly does that mean?

802
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:42,839
Speaker 8: I think the relationship has certainly changed a lot from

803
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:46,200
Speaker 8: the days where we considered them a strategic partner. I

804
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:51,960
Speaker 8: think if you look at Secretary Yellen's visit and President

805
00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:55,719
Speaker 8: Biden's call with President Jijinping last week, we've seen that

806
00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:59,000
Speaker 8: the competition is very clear. And now I think the

807
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:03,720
Speaker 8: US administration is really trying to thread a needle by

808
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 8: maintaining relationships, trying to improve relationships with China because they

809
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:10,879
Speaker 8: kind of dipped off for a while there, but try

810
00:42:10,920 --> 00:42:16,239
Speaker 8: to improve those relationships, but still try to protect US technology,

811
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:19,319
Speaker 8: and specifically, the Biden administration would like to be a

812
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:22,719
Speaker 8: leader in the green energy area in the globe, and

813
00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:26,280
Speaker 8: they see China rapidly moving into that area. You mentioned

814
00:42:26,360 --> 00:42:29,440
Speaker 8: EV's is one, and so that's an area is the

815
00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:33,880
Speaker 8: Biden deministration tries to create jobs in both the semiconductor

816
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:38,280
Speaker 8: industry and also the EV industry and the green energy.

817
00:42:38,600 --> 00:42:44,240
Speaker 8: They see China's ability to over manufacture and increase production

818
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:47,319
Speaker 8: along with state owned enterprise subsidies to be able to

819
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:52,480
Speaker 8: reduce prices and potentially flood the market and caused damage

820
00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:54,920
Speaker 8: to the ability of US to manufacture here in the US.

821
00:42:56,080 --> 00:42:59,040
Speaker 2: Well, just to get back general to where Hayley started here,

822
00:42:59,120 --> 00:43:04,319
Speaker 2: let's go back to your in twenty eighteen. That designation

823
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:09,320
Speaker 2: strategic competitor that you came up with in that piece

824
00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:13,240
Speaker 2: of work has been repeated ever since by administrations, including

825
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:15,479
Speaker 2: this one. We've heard Joe Biden say more than once

826
00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:19,680
Speaker 2: that China is someone we want to have a competition

827
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:24,840
Speaker 2: with and not a conflict. We've seen some interesting footwork

828
00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 2: around jargon here, from a decoupling to I can't even

829
00:43:29,120 --> 00:43:31,400
Speaker 2: remember what some of the other ones were at this point,

830
00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:34,760
Speaker 2: back where you were in twenty eighteen. If you looked

831
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 2: at the relationship today, how would you have described it?

832
00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:38,759
Speaker 1: Then?

833
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:43,240
Speaker 8: I would describe it that China's continue on the path

834
00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 8: that they've been on. How they've vocalized that or put

835
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 8: that out from an information standpoint is different. And back

836
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 8: then when we really started to see them come online

837
00:43:54,239 --> 00:43:56,759
Speaker 8: is what we considered as strategic competitor. They had just

838
00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:59,600
Speaker 8: come out with Made in China twenty twenty five, which

839
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:03,719
Speaker 8: was a hey blueprint or strategy that laid out how

840
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:07,920
Speaker 8: China wanted to dominate the globe in technology, listed in

841
00:44:08,000 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 8: areas like AI, quantum computing, robotics, into semiconductors, those sort

842
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:20,600
Speaker 8: of things that we saw them saying that they're going

843
00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:23,160
Speaker 8: to lead and lead the globe in. They kind of

844
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:25,200
Speaker 8: pulled that off the table and became kind of quiet

845
00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:27,160
Speaker 8: for a while because it got a lot of adverse

846
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:30,600
Speaker 8: publicity around the globe that China was going to dominate

847
00:44:30,640 --> 00:44:33,760
Speaker 8: and put others out of business. And since that time,

848
00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:37,080
Speaker 8: we've seen them really march along that path. And now

849
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 8: one of the things I think we're definitely seeing is

850
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:43,440
Speaker 8: the Biden administration seeing that we talk about you know,

851
00:44:43,800 --> 00:44:48,759
Speaker 8: high tech capabilities, dual use capabilities such as semiconductors. We

852
00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 8: can look at how they dominate areas in rare earth minerals,

853
00:44:53,560 --> 00:44:56,960
Speaker 8: some of the things that make batteries like those type

854
00:44:57,000 --> 00:45:00,520
Speaker 8: of materials dominate those areas that not only can have

855
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:03,720
Speaker 8: a military impact on the US. But now we're seeing

856
00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:06,520
Speaker 8: more of a competition on the economic side. And I

857
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:09,200
Speaker 8: think the real wake up call is coming is the

858
00:45:09,320 --> 00:45:13,120
Speaker 8: US military into Department Defense, has really studied China's military growth.

859
00:45:13,400 --> 00:45:17,280
Speaker 8: What we're seeing is the Chinese Party is really leading

860
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:21,400
Speaker 8: much more towards economic dominance across the road through their

861
00:45:21,400 --> 00:45:22,360
Speaker 8: Belt Road initiative.

862
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:25,920
Speaker 11: Well, I'm glad you brought up the military aspect of

863
00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:28,239
Speaker 11: this relationship as well, because, of course, when Biden and

864
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:31,280
Speaker 11: Chijhin paying had their summit out in California in November,

865
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:34,799
Speaker 11: part of that was trying to normalize military to military communications,

866
00:45:34,800 --> 00:45:37,160
Speaker 11: which had stopped for a period of time, And as

867
00:45:37,239 --> 00:45:39,200
Speaker 11: Yellen was in China, we got news that the US

868
00:45:39,239 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 11: and China had resumed a dialogue basically preventing an inadvertent clash.

869
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:47,520
Speaker 11: How high, general, in your mind, is the risk of

870
00:45:47,560 --> 00:45:50,399
Speaker 11: an accident of some kind of miscalculation while we're still

871
00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:54,160
Speaker 11: working on normalizing that communication. How much room for a

872
00:45:54,200 --> 00:45:59,399
Speaker 11: potential error, perhaps very significant error is there now?

873
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:02,399
Speaker 8: I think it's a great, great point, Kaylee. They did

874
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:07,880
Speaker 8: begin those discussions effect. The first call came from President

875
00:46:07,920 --> 00:46:11,080
Speaker 8: Biden ToJ in July twenty two and like you mentioned

876
00:46:11,120 --> 00:46:14,560
Speaker 8: at the APEC summit, they had another discussion. It's really

877
00:46:14,600 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 8: we have to keep the lines of communication open even

878
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:20,560
Speaker 8: as a competitor, which is completely different than we had

879
00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:22,960
Speaker 8: with the Cold War with the Soviet Union. We always

880
00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 8: kept the lines of communication open so we don't have

881
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:30,799
Speaker 8: misunderstanding of each other. Certainly in the South China Sea

882
00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:33,920
Speaker 8: and the East China Sea, we see the Chinese military

883
00:46:34,000 --> 00:46:37,600
Speaker 8: the PLA being very aggressive. Certainly around the Philippine Islands,

884
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:41,560
Speaker 8: we see that and the rook of having a misjudgment,

885
00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 8: whether it's you know, aircraft ships at sea, there's always

886
00:46:46,719 --> 00:46:49,120
Speaker 8: that danger. And one of the things I think that

887
00:46:49,239 --> 00:46:52,960
Speaker 8: also concerns US is the Chinese military has been very

888
00:46:52,960 --> 00:46:56,439
Speaker 8: aggressive in their actions. They have not been tested since

889
00:46:56,520 --> 00:47:00,239
Speaker 8: nineteen seventy nine in a war with Vietnam, and we

890
00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:02,960
Speaker 8: just are concerned that the rhetoric that comes out of

891
00:47:02,960 --> 00:47:05,800
Speaker 8: the Chinese military that is almost sometimes that they're almost

892
00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:08,480
Speaker 8: itching for a fight where the US is trying to

893
00:47:08,520 --> 00:47:11,560
Speaker 8: have clear lines of communication open so we don't run

894
00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:12,879
Speaker 8: into a situation like that.

895
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:16,920
Speaker 2: You mentioned China's plans for twenty twenty five General it

896
00:47:17,080 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 2: was in Air Force General Mike Minihan who just about

897
00:47:21,080 --> 00:47:25,279
Speaker 2: a year ago was out with a memo that some

898
00:47:25,320 --> 00:47:28,400
Speaker 2: reporters got their hands on, urging his officers to prepare

899
00:47:28,400 --> 00:47:32,680
Speaker 2: for a conflict with China as soon as twenty twenty five.

900
00:47:33,000 --> 00:47:34,200
Speaker 2: Will he end up looking right?

901
00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:36,080
Speaker 4: You know?

902
00:47:36,120 --> 00:47:38,239
Speaker 8: I think our perspective on that is as you weigh

903
00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:40,400
Speaker 8: it all, you know, as we look at the framework

904
00:47:40,440 --> 00:47:45,040
Speaker 8: we kind of use, is we use as dime as diplomacy, information,

905
00:47:45,239 --> 00:47:48,160
Speaker 8: military and economic levers of power. Those are the things

906
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:51,160
Speaker 8: that kind of you can use as a national power

907
00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:54,920
Speaker 8: to be able to try to coerce and compromise with

908
00:47:55,080 --> 00:47:58,960
Speaker 8: a competitor. And I think in this case, if you

909
00:47:59,080 --> 00:48:02,920
Speaker 8: really look at Gping in the Chinese Communist Party, the

910
00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:04,920
Speaker 8: one thing they want to do is stay in power.

911
00:48:05,000 --> 00:48:08,239
Speaker 8: Staying in power means keeping their people happy, and I

912
00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:12,000
Speaker 8: think economically that's the most important thing for them right now,

913
00:48:12,360 --> 00:48:15,919
Speaker 8: is to try to lead the globe economically. So though

914
00:48:15,960 --> 00:48:18,279
Speaker 8: we see that they put out the rhetoric that by

915
00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:21,879
Speaker 8: twenty twenty seven they'd be ready to take Taiwan militarily,

916
00:48:22,760 --> 00:48:25,839
Speaker 8: we certainly have to be ready, and the Biden administration

917
00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:29,280
Speaker 8: is doing everything they can to try to deter anything

918
00:48:29,400 --> 00:48:31,640
Speaker 8: like that occurring. But at the end of the day,

919
00:48:31,640 --> 00:48:34,560
Speaker 8: in the near term, though, they've got the capability that

920
00:48:34,640 --> 00:48:37,480
Speaker 8: continues to grow and in many ways outpace our own

921
00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:41,120
Speaker 8: US military. What we're seeing though is I think they

922
00:48:41,200 --> 00:48:43,520
Speaker 8: want to lead more globally, and that's why I think

923
00:48:43,560 --> 00:48:47,839
Speaker 8: you see this discussion between the Biden administration, between jan

924
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:53,799
Speaker 8: and Yellen, with Commerce Secretary Raimondo, all going towards this

925
00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:57,200
Speaker 8: economic area, because I think that's where we really see

926
00:48:57,440 --> 00:49:00,640
Speaker 8: the Chinese trying to dominate, and they would do this strategically,

927
00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:03,360
Speaker 8: be starting with things like you know in Africa, in

928
00:49:03,600 --> 00:49:06,719
Speaker 8: in South America, in the Caribbean, those areas where you

929
00:49:06,760 --> 00:49:10,400
Speaker 8: can get these rare earth minerals, things like cobalt and lithium,

930
00:49:10,600 --> 00:49:13,160
Speaker 8: and put them ahead in some of these high tech

931
00:49:13,200 --> 00:49:15,960
Speaker 8: areas to include some of the green energy capabilities.

932
00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:20,759
Speaker 2: He's a board member at Academy Securities. Retired Lieutenant General

933
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:22,960
Speaker 2: Robert Walsh, It's great to have you with us in general.

934
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:28,480
Speaker 2: Thank you for your insights today. Thanks for listening to

935
00:49:28,520 --> 00:49:31,880
Speaker 2: the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if

936
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:34,600
Speaker 2: you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get

937
00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:37,680
Speaker 2: your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday

938
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:41,520
Speaker 2: from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com