WEBVTT - Bye America Turns Into Buy America

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<v Speaker 1>What can a chins, I'm Chuil Webber and Americ Belcunas

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<v Speaker 1>Eric anything of note been happening in markets of late

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<v Speaker 1>What a year?

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<v Speaker 2>What a year this day has been but whiplash, Yeah yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>COVID like whiplash.

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<v Speaker 1>You know.

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<v Speaker 2>The whole year it was sell America, the sell America trade,

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<v Speaker 2>uron stocks, Europe is the place to be and uh

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<v Speaker 2>well that didn't turn out to be true. The us

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<v Speaker 2>rallied back. Now it's positive on the year. I'd say

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<v Speaker 2>even that just blew away much of the negativity and

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<v Speaker 2>expert analysis out there. It's a little I think it's

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<v Speaker 2>one of those moments that's baffling for a lot of people.

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<v Speaker 2>But so instead of you know, selling America, everybody bought it,

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<v Speaker 2>and here we are back in what feels like twenty

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<v Speaker 2>twenty four again, it feels like we're kind of like

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<v Speaker 2>back to normal, which is sort of like, as somebody

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<v Speaker 2>on this podcast is going to say, is comfortably bullish,

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<v Speaker 2>comfortably bolish.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, Well, to help us walk through some of those

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<v Speaker 1>headlines and what's happening in markets and bonds, we're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>be joined by Isabelle Lee Process, a reporter with Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>News as well as Athanasios, Sarah Vegas ETF analyst with

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<v Speaker 1>Boomberg Controjans Beast time on Trillions. Bye bye America, Athanasios,

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<v Speaker 1>welcome back to Trillions, Isabelle, thanks for being here. See

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<v Speaker 1>what I did there? Good bye bye.

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<v Speaker 3>I heard it.

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<v Speaker 1>It was good. So let's I want to set this

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<v Speaker 1>up with you because you've been writing some interesting notes

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<v Speaker 1>right now. What have you been seeing on sort of

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<v Speaker 1>like just a metal level of how things have transpired.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, well, Eric kind of alluded to it, but it's

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<v Speaker 4>the bounce back in the US market, And looked at

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<v Speaker 4>what happened in the beginning of April. It was a

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<v Speaker 4>lot of negative sentiment. It was the US acceptavision is

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<v Speaker 4>over time to rotate into Europe, move away out of it.

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<v Speaker 2>Uh.

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<v Speaker 4>But one thing that was interesting with THETF flows, they

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<v Speaker 4>never really fully bought into the Europe story, right, so

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<v Speaker 4>you heard everyone coming up with, well, it's time to

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<v Speaker 4>rotate into Europe. The flows didn't really bite. They were

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<v Speaker 4>still sort of buying the US even during that dip

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<v Speaker 4>in the beginning of April. They continued to buy. And

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<v Speaker 4>now that's paid off because the market's bounced back so far.

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<v Speaker 4>So maybe across the world. Yeah, Europe was a little

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<v Speaker 4>bit more negative on the US, but if we didn't

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<v Speaker 4>look in like Asia, they were actually buying US stocks

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<v Speaker 4>like pretty aggressively. So you know, you if you weren't buying,

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<v Speaker 4>you missed out on this massive, really rapid rebound, I.

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<v Speaker 2>Mean, one of the phenomenons. And you know we saw

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<v Speaker 2>this during Trump one point zero two. There does seem

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<v Speaker 2>to be like a little bit of a wider gap

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<v Speaker 2>between negativity and the headlines and like the reality in

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<v Speaker 2>the market. And I know that probably because you know,

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<v Speaker 2>the president can be polarizing, and I think sometimes that

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<v Speaker 2>gap is almos.

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<v Speaker 1>Remember I had that guy on here.

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<v Speaker 2>I know, I'm trying to make a metric out of

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<v Speaker 2>it between the flows and the price and then the headlines,

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<v Speaker 2>and it's almost like a factor where there's some kind

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<v Speaker 2>of a gap there. It reminds me of that guy

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<v Speaker 2>we had on who talked about intangible value of a stock,

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<v Speaker 2>where it's like dark matter. You can't quite see it

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<v Speaker 2>or measure it, but you know it's there. And I

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<v Speaker 2>think it's something people have to be careful of. But

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<v Speaker 2>it seems to me the money doesn't care what the

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<v Speaker 2>headlines are they're just simply buying.

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<v Speaker 1>They wants more money.

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<v Speaker 2>Money wants more money, and that's kind of cool that

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<v Speaker 2>in all this, like, you know, all this political warfare

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<v Speaker 2>and headlines going back and forth on both sides, that

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<v Speaker 2>you know, money just wants to make money. And I

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<v Speaker 2>think when it saw some pullback on the tariffs, it

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<v Speaker 2>was immediately in because it generally has real faith in

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<v Speaker 2>US stocks, likes to be in US stocks, doesn't want

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<v Speaker 2>to not be in there. And I think that was

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<v Speaker 2>something we saw this year and something will probably continue

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<v Speaker 2>to see. So I think in a way sometimes the

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<v Speaker 2>headlines need a little bit of an adjustment factor, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>for the next three years.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll see.

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<v Speaker 2>But that's something we've noticed and I think other peoples have.

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<v Speaker 2>There just definitely was like a disconnect between flows and

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<v Speaker 2>prices and the headline and the sort of vibe out

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<v Speaker 2>there coming on every little thing that was going on.

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<v Speaker 3>Macrowise, so said media here in New York Face. But

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<v Speaker 3>I think the headline was an attack on us.

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<v Speaker 1>No, it's true.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, the headline risk is real. I've actually we

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<v Speaker 3>talked to money managers all the time and they also

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<v Speaker 3>say that the concerns are there but most of them

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<v Speaker 3>are actually staying put also because many reasons, long term

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<v Speaker 3>investment strategies, or because they're just trying to write it out,

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<v Speaker 3>because if you move, you move to what I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>we were just talking about this earlier, Joel, that one

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<v Speaker 3>tweet or one truth could change a lot of things,

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<v Speaker 3>and it's hard to have conviction. That's what they tell me,

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<v Speaker 3>because then if you have conviction on one tweet, what

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<v Speaker 3>will happen to the others. The data that jumps out

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<v Speaker 3>to me is that disparity between soft data and hard data.

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<v Speaker 3>Back of America had this really interesting graph that showed

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<v Speaker 3>that the gap between those two is that it's wide

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<v Speaker 3>since at least twenty five years. So what do you

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<v Speaker 3>look at these days? And then we have a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of money managers looking at alternative data like cargo or

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<v Speaker 3>like foot traffic to stores or pizza deliveries because they

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<v Speaker 3>can't rely on our data anymore, the traditional one solely

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<v Speaker 3>at least.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's like anything that helps me feel like I

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<v Speaker 1>can get a read on what's happening and gives.

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<v Speaker 3>Me an advantage, yes, or even Uber deliveries. One person

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<v Speaker 3>was telling me because he was like, you don't order

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<v Speaker 3>out if you feel like there's a recession coming interesting.

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<v Speaker 2>And Isabelle this is a great thing to riff off

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<v Speaker 2>of for Athanasios, which is that where else can you go?

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<v Speaker 2>I think this is something that's underrated. So this idea

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<v Speaker 2>of American exceptionalism in markets, in markets, I do think

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<v Speaker 2>it's stronger than it's given credit for, because you've found

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<v Speaker 2>that the poll to invest here, even if you don't

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<v Speaker 2>like what's going on. You look at the stocks in

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<v Speaker 2>the Nasdaq one hundred or the S and P, and

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<v Speaker 2>then you fire up the European ETF and you look

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<v Speaker 2>at those stocks. I'm sorry, you're not leaving, You're you

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<v Speaker 2>gonna stay in America.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean, I think it's right about what alternative

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<v Speaker 4>there is, and it's really hard to give it up,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, and with Trump and all that, like, I

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<v Speaker 4>get it, Yeah, he's kind of messing with the markets now,

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<v Speaker 4>But if you take all that out, we're still just

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<v Speaker 4>these companies are really good at just making money right,

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<v Speaker 4>way better than Europe, way better than some other kind.

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<v Speaker 4>And so when you just look at what is the

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<v Speaker 4>best alternative, I find it really hard to get money

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<v Speaker 4>to pry away from the US and be like, Okay,

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<v Speaker 4>I'm gonna go fully into Europe. I just feel like

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<v Speaker 4>this might not age well. Not saying that they can't

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<v Speaker 4>do well, but a lot of times when europe stocks

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<v Speaker 4>do well, US is also doing really well too. I

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<v Speaker 4>can't really see a scenario where we're doing really poorly

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<v Speaker 4>and they're like crushing it. But you know, I think

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<v Speaker 4>it's just And even if you look at Europe, most

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<v Speaker 4>of their money is invested in the US, right, So

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<v Speaker 4>I think almost in a way, like our greatest export

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<v Speaker 4>here is like our returns, our market returns, because so

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<v Speaker 4>much of the world has benefited off of like just

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<v Speaker 4>the growth in the SP five hundred. It's not just US,

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<v Speaker 4>it's like a global phenomenon.

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<v Speaker 1>What else in the data have you been evaluating specifically

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<v Speaker 1>around Europe?

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<v Speaker 4>Could say two things, right, they'd say, there's US investors

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<v Speaker 4>trying to buy European funds. Here there's there's barely any movement,

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<v Speaker 4>right and even this is Europe doing really really well

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<v Speaker 4>this year, they just haven't really allocated to it. Then

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<v Speaker 4>there's the European investors investing in the US and then

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<v Speaker 4>their local markets. So there you've seen that they definitely

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<v Speaker 4>turned more bearish on the US in April. They were

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<v Speaker 4>cutting down their allocations and were staying more domestic, but

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<v Speaker 4>with that they missed this massive rebound. But if you

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<v Speaker 4>still look at the way they're positioned, there's still mostly

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<v Speaker 4>overweight the US. So they're invested more in the US,

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<v Speaker 4>at least three tfs more in the US than they

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<v Speaker 4>are even in their own local market. So I think

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<v Speaker 4>they understand it too. It's like, yeah, I live here,

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<v Speaker 4>Europe's a great place, but for investing in stocks, just

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<v Speaker 4>the US just offers a way better alternative than some

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<v Speaker 4>of the local ones that I'm getting.

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<v Speaker 2>But you also looked at the times when Europe outperforms

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<v Speaker 2>the US. It's like a rower band, right, Yeah, and

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<v Speaker 2>it got to its like sort of widest length that

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<v Speaker 2>it ever gets to, which is what like seventeen eighteen percent?

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<v Speaker 2>And what happens next?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and things mean revert, right, So you know, Europe

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<v Speaker 4>was outperforming the US quite a bit this year, and

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<v Speaker 4>mean mean reverted in April. Then the other thing we

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<v Speaker 4>always kind of joke about European summers and how Europe

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<v Speaker 4>like takes off the entire summer summer is actually a

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<v Speaker 4>bad time to rotate into Europe. On a relative basis,

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<v Speaker 4>US usually always does better over the summer than Europe.

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<v Speaker 4>But you know, it's probably to say that maybe the

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<v Speaker 4>ourperformance is a little bit stretched from European over the US,

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<v Speaker 4>so that just tends the meaner vert a little bit.

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<v Speaker 4>So I think there's a lot of all like narratives

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<v Speaker 4>now to support a little bit of rotation back into

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<v Speaker 4>the US. I bet you we could see European investors

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<v Speaker 4>rotate back into the US even locally.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, another thing that's been wiplash inducing has been the

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<v Speaker 1>bond market. Is well, you wrote about that recently. What

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<v Speaker 1>is that story about.

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<v Speaker 3>It's about TLT. So it's I shares twenty plus year

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<v Speaker 3>bond ETF. It's the biggest long bond ETF, and it's

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<v Speaker 3>known as a widow maker. So widow maker in market

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<v Speaker 3>terms means that it's a trade that could lead to

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<v Speaker 3>potentially catastrophic losses. And I must credit Athanasius here because

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<v Speaker 3>he did write a note about TLT that made me

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<v Speaker 3>realize that, you know what it did actually see in

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<v Speaker 3>a one week time horizon, the most inflows over one

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<v Speaker 3>week out of all the more than six hundred ETFs

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<v Speaker 3>fixed income ETFs that Bloomberg track. So you follow the flow,

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<v Speaker 3>at least for us, because price tells you a different thing.

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<v Speaker 3>But flows show conviction. And then it's interesting because people

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<v Speaker 3>have really been piling into this trade even if but.

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<v Speaker 1>You got to get the timing right otherwise it'syeah, widow.

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<v Speaker 3>Maker, yes, and it hasn't been right for them until

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<v Speaker 3>one day when we saw really the bonds rallied and

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<v Speaker 3>so that was a rare payday for those investors. And

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<v Speaker 3>so for that time, at least for this brief moment,

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<v Speaker 3>TLT wasn't a widow maker those.

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<v Speaker 1>Long dated bonds at the Nastia's like, what else have

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<v Speaker 1>you all been watching on that front?

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<v Speaker 4>The thing that I find really interesting with TLT, I

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<v Speaker 4>feel like it's a very institutional vehicle. So I don't

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<v Speaker 4>know if it's just this mindset of like trying to

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<v Speaker 4>fight the FED and like outsmart the FED and there's

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<v Speaker 4>like something about that.

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<v Speaker 1>But there is.

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<v Speaker 4>Fifty billion or so in the CTF and it's done

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<v Speaker 4>nothing for like three years.

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<v Speaker 1>It's just sort of treaded water.

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<v Speaker 4>So you have like fifty billions sitting in the CTF

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<v Speaker 4>that hasn't really moved a lot.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's one of those things.

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<v Speaker 4>I think people want to get it right, and this

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<v Speaker 4>is why they've literally been trying for three years. And

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<v Speaker 4>most of the flows have come in the last three years.

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<v Speaker 4>It was only about fifteen billion or so in twenty

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<v Speaker 4>twenty two, and now it's fifty, like I mentioned. But

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<v Speaker 4>I think it's even just a bigger story about bonds

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<v Speaker 4>and like what they've sort of done for you in

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<v Speaker 4>the last couple of years. Nothing, yeah, nothing, yeah? And

0:10:51.360 --> 0:10:54.200
<v Speaker 4>does it make sense to keep allocating to them?

0:10:54.280 --> 0:10:54.400
<v Speaker 1>Right?

0:10:54.400 --> 0:10:57.480
<v Speaker 4>We always talk about sixty forty and whatnot, and you're

0:10:57.520 --> 0:10:59.640
<v Speaker 4>earning the same yield as you would in like a bill,

0:10:59.640 --> 0:11:02.640
<v Speaker 4>which is really short term treasury ETF. Obviously you're not

0:11:02.640 --> 0:11:05.720
<v Speaker 4>getting the price movement if the FED cuts or whatnot.

0:11:05.760 --> 0:11:08.320
<v Speaker 4>But I think it just opens up a much bigger

0:11:08.400 --> 0:11:10.560
<v Speaker 4>question about what, you know, what a bonds do for you.

0:11:10.960 --> 0:11:14.240
<v Speaker 3>I think TLT fell around forty in the past five years,

0:11:14.240 --> 0:11:17.400
<v Speaker 3>but it gathered like fifty billion of endflows.

0:11:17.800 --> 0:11:20.320
<v Speaker 2>This to me, this ETF is for people who like

0:11:20.400 --> 0:11:24.640
<v Speaker 2>to overthink things, like you're playing forty chess with the Fed.

0:11:24.720 --> 0:11:27.800
<v Speaker 2>You're like, no, but then we're gonna get an economic number.

0:11:28.240 --> 0:11:30.920
<v Speaker 2>It's gonna say this the Fed will have to blink.

0:11:31.120 --> 0:11:33.240
<v Speaker 2>Rates will go down, TLT goes up. And it's like

0:11:33.280 --> 0:11:36.720
<v Speaker 2>that meme with Zach gal Galfanakis with all the formulas.

0:11:37.320 --> 0:11:40.960
<v Speaker 2>To me, that's who buys TLT. Okay, it's not regular people.

0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:44.240
<v Speaker 2>Regular people are buying es GOV, which is so much

0:11:44.280 --> 0:11:47.360
<v Speaker 2>more of a no brainer, basically, no duration risks. You're

0:11:47.360 --> 0:11:51.120
<v Speaker 2>at one one to three month treasuries yields the same almost,

0:11:51.280 --> 0:11:54.040
<v Speaker 2>so you must We'll clip that coupon with no duration risk.

0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:57.480
<v Speaker 2>But that's again the TLT people are playing like a

0:11:57.480 --> 0:12:00.800
<v Speaker 2>whole game. It's like a risk or something on it

0:12:01.679 --> 0:12:03.920
<v Speaker 2>thing going on over there. It's like the further out

0:12:03.960 --> 0:12:06.000
<v Speaker 2>on the curve you go the bigger brain that.

0:12:05.960 --> 0:12:10.119
<v Speaker 3>People get nice image. But to your point, bond investors

0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:13.120
<v Speaker 3>have actually been demanding extra compensation for the risk of

0:12:13.160 --> 0:12:16.520
<v Speaker 3>holding long duration bonds. I think Bloomberg usually refers to

0:12:16.559 --> 0:12:19.320
<v Speaker 3>the US ten year term premium, so an inch closer

0:12:19.320 --> 0:12:21.720
<v Speaker 3>to one percent. That's the highest level in at least

0:12:21.760 --> 0:12:22.479
<v Speaker 3>a decade.

0:12:22.679 --> 0:12:25.200
<v Speaker 1>And the issuance of those long dated bonds have been

0:12:25.240 --> 0:12:27.400
<v Speaker 1>falling off too. Haven't been seeing that.

0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:30.880
<v Speaker 2>But again, this is another thing where again I feel

0:12:30.880 --> 0:12:33.680
<v Speaker 2>like the media kinda was like Oh my god, Moody's

0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:38.240
<v Speaker 2>downgraded the US. It's all over, see what's happening? And

0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:40.920
<v Speaker 2>like honestly, yields when up for a minute like and

0:12:41.000 --> 0:12:43.680
<v Speaker 2>that then they fell again, like they've been around five

0:12:43.679 --> 0:12:46.720
<v Speaker 2>percent four percent for like a long time. Nothing, there's

0:12:46.760 --> 0:12:48.000
<v Speaker 2>nothing really going on.

0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:52.040
<v Speaker 3>The media is just here, Eric, I know, well I was.

0:12:52.160 --> 0:12:54.640
<v Speaker 2>I was talking to other colleagues earlier. I used to

0:12:54.640 --> 0:12:58.200
<v Speaker 2>work at a derivatives monitor my first job out of school,

0:12:58.840 --> 0:13:00.320
<v Speaker 2>and I remember the guy'd be like, I had to

0:13:00.320 --> 0:13:03.040
<v Speaker 2>call traders and like's find out what happened that day.

0:13:03.040 --> 0:13:05.840
<v Speaker 2>And I'd be like, okay, like the something move like

0:13:05.840 --> 0:13:08.280
<v Speaker 2>twenty basis points and he's like, well why, and I'm

0:13:08.280 --> 0:13:10.400
<v Speaker 2>like they don't know, and he's like, you, there has

0:13:10.480 --> 0:13:13.320
<v Speaker 2>to be a reason. So there's like this pressure to

0:13:13.400 --> 0:13:17.840
<v Speaker 2>like come up with a reason for everything, and you know,

0:13:17.320 --> 0:13:19.800
<v Speaker 2>you gotta get the clicks. I get it.

0:13:19.840 --> 0:13:22.240
<v Speaker 1>But if you can tell the story of the market

0:13:22.400 --> 0:13:25.240
<v Speaker 1>through one etf right now, what do you think it is?

0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:30.360
<v Speaker 2>Vou sixty four billion dollars year to date, it's kind

0:13:30.360 --> 0:13:33.559
<v Speaker 2>of that's the influence. Yeah, Because I do find this

0:13:33.679 --> 0:13:36.160
<v Speaker 2>juxtabsition interesting and I've always found it interesting. And this

0:13:36.200 --> 0:13:39.480
<v Speaker 2>is well beyond Trump or the president, but just in general,

0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:43.160
<v Speaker 2>when something bad happens and there's like this, because again,

0:13:43.360 --> 0:13:45.679
<v Speaker 2>let's face it, when there's negative news, you get more

0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:48.640
<v Speaker 2>clicks on your stuff. It's just like, it's just the fact.

0:13:48.720 --> 0:13:50.760
<v Speaker 2>It's like the Weather Channel when there's a hurricane. You

0:13:50.800 --> 0:13:52.480
<v Speaker 2>know how they pump up hurricanes.

0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:54.679
<v Speaker 1>Hurricane seasons basically upon us.

0:13:54.760 --> 0:13:57.600
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, but I get it. I do it too. I'm

0:13:57.600 --> 0:14:00.440
<v Speaker 2>guilty as well. But at the same time, the VU

0:14:00.559 --> 0:14:05.440
<v Speaker 2>investor doesn't care. And it's interesting to see this immovable

0:14:05.480 --> 0:14:08.760
<v Speaker 2>object against this big force of the headlines, and they're

0:14:08.800 --> 0:14:12.160
<v Speaker 2>just like, you cannot shake these VU investors. And this

0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:15.080
<v Speaker 2>year VU is on track to break the old record

0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:18.440
<v Speaker 2>by fifty percent, which is set last year. So VU

0:14:18.559 --> 0:14:21.080
<v Speaker 2>being this steamroller of like I don't really care what

0:14:21.120 --> 0:14:24.200
<v Speaker 2>you're saying, or what anybody's saying, even the President. I'm

0:14:24.240 --> 0:14:28.280
<v Speaker 2>just gonna buy us thoughts like nothing can scare me,

0:14:28.480 --> 0:14:32.520
<v Speaker 2>is fascinating to me. That's a big story. Not every

0:14:32.560 --> 0:14:35.400
<v Speaker 2>single thing on earth bought like VOO did, but VU

0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:39.120
<v Speaker 2>is symbolic. I thought of this idea of I think

0:14:39.160 --> 0:14:41.560
<v Speaker 2>a lot of investors would come up with a couple

0:14:41.680 --> 0:14:43.920
<v Speaker 2>truths that they just truly believe in. Number One, they

0:14:43.920 --> 0:14:46.120
<v Speaker 2>think they can't time the market. They've tried and they failed,

0:14:46.120 --> 0:14:48.000
<v Speaker 2>and they're like, I can't do it. No one can,

0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:50.760
<v Speaker 2>even the experts fail, So I'm not gonna do it.

0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:53.360
<v Speaker 2>Number two, they're like, I can never get a better

0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:56.640
<v Speaker 2>deal than VU three basis points for the entire US market,

0:14:56.840 --> 0:14:59.080
<v Speaker 2>so I don't need to change funds, So I'm not

0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:02.440
<v Speaker 2>getting out for that reason. And number three, the US

0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:06.360
<v Speaker 2>stock market kicks ass. I'm not going to trade in Amazon, Apple,

0:15:06.880 --> 0:15:11.800
<v Speaker 2>and Microsoft for like HSBC and Nesley, No thanks, And so.

0:15:12.040 --> 0:15:14.440
<v Speaker 1>Those eslie chocolate does taste better? I agree with you.

0:15:15.480 --> 0:15:17.080
<v Speaker 2>I think a lot of them have maybe ten percent

0:15:17.160 --> 0:15:20.160
<v Speaker 2>in international, like they don't. They're not devoid international, But

0:15:20.200 --> 0:15:23.320
<v Speaker 2>this idea of like selling America or the end of

0:15:23.320 --> 0:15:26.320
<v Speaker 2>the exceptionalism, I just think that those three things I

0:15:26.440 --> 0:15:30.600
<v Speaker 2>just said are truths that create the immovable object of

0:15:30.640 --> 0:15:34.280
<v Speaker 2>those flows, and I think they're underrated by people who

0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:36.760
<v Speaker 2>are trying to call the markets. And I think a

0:15:36.760 --> 0:15:41.000
<v Speaker 2>lot of people have gotten to that point with their investing,

0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:44.640
<v Speaker 2>and this year it's just going to embolden that because

0:15:44.680 --> 0:15:46.920
<v Speaker 2>the rally back just reminded them I did the right

0:15:46.920 --> 0:15:48.080
<v Speaker 2>thing by not panicking.

0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:51.120
<v Speaker 3>Voo is hard to beat, actually, but I was a

0:15:51.280 --> 0:15:53.760
<v Speaker 3>small part of me was preparing for you to say ibit,

0:15:54.000 --> 0:15:56.080
<v Speaker 3>because not only do you tweet about it every day,

0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:59.320
<v Speaker 3>but also I think the ibit is just indicative of

0:15:59.360 --> 0:16:03.800
<v Speaker 3>the this staunchness or the conviction of traders to really

0:16:03.840 --> 0:16:07.120
<v Speaker 3>just plow money into this new bitcoin fund or I

0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:10.520
<v Speaker 3>guess it's not so new now anymore. And recently we

0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:13.400
<v Speaker 3>saw everything whiplash, but Crypto was the adult in the room,

0:16:13.560 --> 0:16:14.440
<v Speaker 3>so that was the story.

0:16:14.520 --> 0:16:18.000
<v Speaker 2>We also wrote real quick on ibit. It is the

0:16:18.040 --> 0:16:21.600
<v Speaker 2>second flow getting ETF in the past six weeks after

0:16:21.720 --> 0:16:26.280
<v Speaker 2>Voo nine billion. It's on a crazy run. Interesting about ibit,

0:16:26.360 --> 0:16:28.920
<v Speaker 2>in my opinion. I was on stage with Robbie Mitchnick

0:16:28.960 --> 0:16:31.840
<v Speaker 2>from Blackrock in Dubai at a thing called Token twenty

0:16:31.880 --> 0:16:34.960
<v Speaker 2>forty nine. Fifteen thousand people at this thing, average age

0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:37.800
<v Speaker 2>Joal twenty eight. Like I was like the old grandpa

0:16:37.960 --> 0:16:40.200
<v Speaker 2>the ors. My kid would say, unk, that's the new

0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:43.440
<v Speaker 2>term for old head. Anyway, I'm unking out there and

0:16:43.480 --> 0:16:45.480
<v Speaker 2>I'm on stage with other unks right with the trad

0:16:45.520 --> 0:16:49.280
<v Speaker 2>five panel, and Robbie says that when bitcoin decoupled and

0:16:49.320 --> 0:16:52.360
<v Speaker 2>went like a different direction than spy, he got incoming

0:16:52.400 --> 0:16:56.080
<v Speaker 2>calls from big fish, big institutions. So I think bitcoin's

0:16:56.080 --> 0:17:00.040
<v Speaker 2>in this nice place right now with regulatory headwinds gone,

0:17:00.120 --> 0:17:02.560
<v Speaker 2>and as it starts the lower in volatility and get

0:17:02.680 --> 0:17:05.760
<v Speaker 2>more less correlated than to the market, it will get

0:17:05.800 --> 0:17:09.200
<v Speaker 2>bigger investors who are more stable, which will ultimately help

0:17:09.240 --> 0:17:10.439
<v Speaker 2>it look more like gold too.

0:17:10.520 --> 0:17:10.880
<v Speaker 1>He says.

0:17:10.920 --> 0:17:14.040
<v Speaker 2>These giant investors are not interested in tech stock returns.

0:17:14.080 --> 0:17:17.040
<v Speaker 2>They want like digital gold. So everybody's kind of waiting

0:17:17.080 --> 0:17:19.240
<v Speaker 2>for bitcoin to kind of mature and act more like

0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:22.240
<v Speaker 2>an adult and not like a teenager. And as it is,

0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:23.840
<v Speaker 2>and you can see it in the ball coming down,

0:17:24.600 --> 0:17:27.280
<v Speaker 2>they're going to get bigger investments. And IBIT, to me,

0:17:27.840 --> 0:17:30.159
<v Speaker 2>is the one that bit the big fissues. So the

0:17:30.200 --> 0:17:32.680
<v Speaker 2>fact that ibit has taken ninety percent of the hall

0:17:32.880 --> 0:17:34.960
<v Speaker 2>of all the other bitcoin ETFs, normally it takes in

0:17:34.960 --> 0:17:39.080
<v Speaker 2>two thirds tells me that the institutional incoming is pretty serious.

0:17:39.080 --> 0:17:41.439
<v Speaker 2>Not to mention all the corporations you see adding it

0:17:41.440 --> 0:17:44.480
<v Speaker 2>to the balance sheet, a couple governments, it could get

0:17:44.480 --> 0:17:48.320
<v Speaker 2>pretty crazy. I think we're entering this like true financialization

0:17:48.359 --> 0:17:50.520
<v Speaker 2>of Bitcoin. There will be a point where it peaks

0:17:50.560 --> 0:17:52.159
<v Speaker 2>out and then maybe it goes down. I don't know what,

0:17:52.320 --> 0:17:55.880
<v Speaker 2>but there feels like there's like three or four positive

0:17:55.960 --> 0:17:58.960
<v Speaker 2>narratives and not a lot negative. And especially with the

0:17:58.960 --> 0:18:03.119
<v Speaker 2>stock market being placid, it's hard to see much in

0:18:03.160 --> 0:18:04.920
<v Speaker 2>the way. But we have a phrase on the team.

0:18:05.280 --> 0:18:07.080
<v Speaker 2>I just don't see the bear case, which is like

0:18:07.080 --> 0:18:11.360
<v Speaker 2>famous last words. So I say that knowing that that's

0:18:11.440 --> 0:18:12.359
<v Speaker 2>probably a bad side.

0:18:13.000 --> 0:18:16.280
<v Speaker 1>I think that's a fitting place to end. So, Isabelle,

0:18:17.400 --> 0:18:18.640
<v Speaker 1>thanks for joining us at trillions.

0:18:19.200 --> 0:18:20.119
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, thanks for having me on.

0:18:20.320 --> 0:18:21.440
<v Speaker 3>Thank you that was really fun.

0:18:27.520 --> 0:18:30.080
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening to Trillions until next time. You can

0:18:30.119 --> 0:18:34.480
<v Speaker 1>find us on the Bloomberg terminal, Bloomberg dot com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify,

0:18:35.040 --> 0:18:37.080
<v Speaker 1>or wherever else you'd like to listen. We'd love to

0:18:37.119 --> 0:18:39.240
<v Speaker 1>hear from you. Hit us up on social I'm at

0:18:39.320 --> 0:18:42.800
<v Speaker 1>Joel Weber Show, He's at Eric Pulcini's. Trillions is produced

0:18:42.840 --> 0:18:46.760
<v Speaker 1>by Magnus Hendrickson. Brendan Newman is our executive producer. Sage

0:18:46.760 --> 0:18:48.680
<v Speaker 1>Bauman is the head of Bloomberg Podcast