1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:10,559 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple, Coarcklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:23,560 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:27,720 Speaker 2: Three casinos are coming to the New York City market. 7 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 2: One of them includes Steve Cohen, the New York Mets 8 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:33,880 Speaker 2: owner Hughes one approval to operate a casino next to 9 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:39,840 Speaker 2: City Field. Remember, Steve Cohen again owns the Mets this stadium, 10 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:42,560 Speaker 2: and so that is big for Queens Random. Williams Joints 11 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:45,360 Speaker 2: is here is at US sports business reporter for Bloomberg News, 12 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:49,559 Speaker 2: joining us from Indianapolis via that Zoom thing. So this 13 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 2: is a big deal for that part of Queen's random 14 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:54,960 Speaker 2: because again it looks like Steve Cohen wants to build 15 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 2: a big, big, multi use kind of area there, hotels, gaming, 16 00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:03,080 Speaker 2: the Mets, oh yeah, the US Tennis centers there as well. 17 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:07,680 Speaker 3: What do we know it's going to be. If he's 18 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 3: able to fulfill his vision, it's going to probably be magnificent. 19 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:12,400 Speaker 3: And the reason I say that is because this is 20 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 3: a sports owner's dream. If you have a team there, 21 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 3: you have hotels, you have a casino there, then of 22 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:20,280 Speaker 3: course this has becomes similar to a resort life. You 23 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 3: can go and catch a Mets game in the summertime, 24 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:23,760 Speaker 3: then you can go and gamble, and you can go 25 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:25,759 Speaker 3: and go to the hotels, at the pools and things 26 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 3: like that. So if he's able to do everything that 27 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:29,440 Speaker 3: he wants to do, and he has more than enough 28 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:30,840 Speaker 3: money to do it, then I'm sure that there's going 29 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:32,160 Speaker 3: to be a lot of people that are going to 30 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:32,600 Speaker 3: enjoy this. 31 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:36,400 Speaker 4: Randall, can you please walk us through the timeline here? 32 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:39,960 Speaker 4: When is this going to be fulfilled? And what do 33 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 4: you've see in terms of perhaps the job creation that 34 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 4: this might cause. 35 00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 3: I think there's going to be a lot of job 36 00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:48,920 Speaker 3: creation just because of the sheer construction, all of the 37 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:50,800 Speaker 3: you know, the tech stuff that's going to have to 38 00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 3: happen with the gambling machines that he's going to be 39 00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 3: buying as well as you know, you think about the pools, 40 00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 3: you think about all of the the potential things that 41 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 3: he's going to be building. In terms of the time frame, 42 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 3: I think it's to be determined. And the reason I 43 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 3: say that is because a lot of these hotels, a 44 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:13,840 Speaker 3: lot of these different facilities that are often they put 45 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 3: up they say, oh, we're going to be done by 46 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 3: twenty thirty and then it's twenty thirty two. Rarely ever 47 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:19,399 Speaker 3: do these things get done on time. 48 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 2: And again, this is just one of three projects that 49 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:25,440 Speaker 2: will approved. The other two projects are the Genting Group's 50 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 2: Resorts World, which proposes to expand the casino next to 51 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:31,800 Speaker 2: the Aqueduct racetrack in Queen, so another good day for Queens, 52 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 2: and Bally's, which plans to operate a gaming facility at 53 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:37,880 Speaker 2: the site of a Bronx golf course. So again more 54 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 2: gambling coming to the City of New York. What's the 55 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 2: Are there any financial contingencies here? We know Steve Cohen's 56 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:47,120 Speaker 2: got a lot of money, but for what he wants 57 00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 2: to build here, it's going to be really expensive. Do 58 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:52,520 Speaker 2: we know if he has partners here or how's we 59 00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:55,799 Speaker 2: know anything about that yet? Not just yet. 60 00:02:55,919 --> 00:02:58,640 Speaker 3: I think that, like you said, Steve Cohen is almost 61 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 3: a perfect person to do this. Or several other bids 62 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 3: that came in hoping to do similar things. There was 63 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 3: a bid that included jay Z and Times Square and 64 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:09,720 Speaker 3: so put that in mind. I think Cohen, like you said, 65 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 3: has a lot of money. I think that you know, 66 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:13,920 Speaker 3: when people have a lot of money that it can 67 00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 3: potentially lead some guardrails and some hurdles that are in 68 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 3: front of most people. But when you can have money 69 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 3: move people out of the way, then I think that 70 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:26,400 Speaker 3: Steve Cohen could could very easily make this look a 71 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 3: lot easier than it could be with someone else. 72 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 4: Randell, you touched on this already. But Steve Cohen, hedge 73 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:34,720 Speaker 4: fund manager, Mets owner, what's in it for him to 74 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 4: build this casino? Now? 75 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 5: Too? 76 00:03:37,040 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 4: What does this ad for him? 77 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 3: It's a dream come true. I mean everyone that I've 78 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 3: talked to about sports gambling and marrying that with these 79 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 3: sports business if you can own a sports team and 80 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:50,720 Speaker 3: a sports gambling in the exact same environment, then it 81 00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 3: does create a playground of sorts. You know, I hear you. 82 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 3: But you know, from the business angle, there's going to 83 00:03:57,520 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 3: be a lot of people who are looking at this 84 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 3: and say, you just spend all day at the Mets 85 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 3: and at the US Open and all these different things. 86 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 3: If you can walk from one thing to the next, 87 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 3: to the next of the next and have a fabulous time, 88 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 3: then there are going to be plenty of people that 89 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 3: want to do that, So for him it's huge. 90 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 2: And Rando I kind of joked a little bit of 91 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 2: their tongue in cheek about what could go wrong. But 92 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:18,920 Speaker 2: there was not a time very long ago, measured in 93 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 2: just a couple three four years, when professional sports leagues 94 00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:24,760 Speaker 2: would not want to get within a thousand feet of 95 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 2: anything related to gambling. 96 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 5: Boy. 97 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:29,720 Speaker 2: Times of change, they yeah, they have. 98 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 3: And I think, you know, we just saw a baseball 99 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 3: investigation with the Feds and in revolving two Cleveland Guardians pitchers. 100 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:38,880 Speaker 3: I think that this sort of thing is something that 101 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:41,919 Speaker 3: sports owners where they sports owners are going to seek 102 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:45,160 Speaker 3: where they can marry their sports business with the casino 103 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 3: and the hotels and all of those things. We see 104 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 3: some of that in Dallas without the casinos and the gambling. 105 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:52,839 Speaker 3: You know, Jerry whirled down with the Cowboys. He has 106 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:55,600 Speaker 3: several real estate properties around there, and in Minnesota they 107 00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:58,200 Speaker 3: have something similar several other properties as well. But this 108 00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:00,480 Speaker 3: one is going to be probably bigger and random than 109 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:01,599 Speaker 3: anything that we've seen yet. 110 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 111 00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:13,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 112 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:16,719 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android 113 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:20,039 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 114 00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:23,200 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 115 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:26,760 Speaker 2: Sam Fazzelli joins us here. He's a Bloomberg Intelligence Director 116 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:29,359 Speaker 2: of Research for Global Industries. Not sure what that means, 117 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:32,600 Speaker 2: senior pharmaceutical jiannals I know what that means. He's kind 118 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 2: of one of the top guys in the business on 119 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:36,720 Speaker 2: big pharma and on the biotechs here, Sam, what do 120 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 2: investors think of just the broad healthcare space here? Given 121 00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 2: this administration and its views on maybe just broader healthcare 122 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 2: policy issues, whether it's vaccine or other other issues, how 123 00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:51,160 Speaker 2: are investors kind of thinking about that? 124 00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 5: So? 125 00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:55,719 Speaker 6: I think K Paul, if you look to the share 126 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:59,680 Speaker 6: prices of pharma companies you generally seem to you would 127 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 6: be able to see that there is a upward momentum 128 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:06,280 Speaker 6: in the past few weeks, a few months, and that's 129 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:09,600 Speaker 6: all because there's been some more clarity. Particularly the thing 130 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:13,039 Speaker 6: that really worried people was this pharmaceutical tariffs, and in 131 00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:15,960 Speaker 6: fact today we heard that the UK and the US 132 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:19,799 Speaker 6: have agreed on it framework that doesn't apply any tariffs, 133 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:23,159 Speaker 6: although a lot of companies have also done individual deals 134 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:26,160 Speaker 6: with the administration where it delays any tariffs by three 135 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 6: years and then who knows what happens then. So that's 136 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:31,800 Speaker 6: all fine. Share prices have moved according to that. The 137 00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:37,520 Speaker 6: issues of most favorite nation has gone, or at least 138 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 6: it's there, but it seems to be manageable. So what's 139 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:44,360 Speaker 6: left here is regulatory worries, and we see some of that, 140 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:48,279 Speaker 6: particularly for vaccines, and I'm wondering, we're all wondering whether 141 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:52,160 Speaker 6: there's going to be a few situations where standard drugs, 142 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:55,360 Speaker 6: biologics or drugs for cancer could end up in those 143 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:58,919 Speaker 6: kind of difficult situations. But vaccines seem to be bearing 144 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:02,720 Speaker 6: the brunt of the pressure from the health authorities at 145 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 6: the moment. 146 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:06,800 Speaker 4: Sam. When I think healthcare, I think GLP ones. They 147 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:08,680 Speaker 4: are the hottest drugs on the market right now. And 148 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 4: there's some news today that Eli Lilly is cutting prices again, 149 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:15,480 Speaker 4: a heating up competition with Novo Nordisks. Does that kind 150 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:17,920 Speaker 4: of cement its place as one of the winners in 151 00:07:17,960 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 4: this space? 152 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:23,080 Speaker 6: Yeah? I mean so the data that the companies are 153 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:27,240 Speaker 6: presented so far suggests that the Eli Lily drug, zet 154 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:31,240 Speaker 6: Bound is more active or more effective when it comes 155 00:07:31,280 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 6: to weight loss than Nova noticed drug, although these are 156 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 6: always trials that are designed by one company trying to 157 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 6: show that their drugs better, and I'm sure some other 158 00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 6: trial will show that someone else's drug is better, but 159 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:45,520 Speaker 6: that is where we are today. Zep Bound seems to 160 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 6: be more effective based on the data that we have 161 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 6: in hand. And so what these companies are now doing 162 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:53,559 Speaker 6: is trying to fit with getting more and more people 163 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:58,840 Speaker 6: onto their formulas, onto their drug and these early these 164 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:03,160 Speaker 6: price cuts for their first doses or the starting doses, etc. 165 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:06,600 Speaker 6: Or a vile versus the pen are designed to try 166 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:10,120 Speaker 6: and get the patients onto the drugs and then hopefully 167 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 6: they lose some weight and they enjoy it and they 168 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 6: keep buying and moving up to the next doses which 169 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:15,360 Speaker 6: are more expensive. 170 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 2: So, Sam, where where are we just in this whole 171 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 2: GLP one game in terms of the addressable market for 172 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 2: these medications? What percentage is taking the drug right now? 173 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 2: It feels like it's still really early. 174 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 6: Potentially, Yeah, we very very few. I mean if you 175 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 6: look at the numbers, we're in the low percentages still, 176 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:41,080 Speaker 6: So you don't need a particularly massive number of a 177 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:43,840 Speaker 6: percentage of people who would benefit from these drugs to 178 00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:46,319 Speaker 6: take them to get into the one hundred billion number. 179 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:49,080 Speaker 6: Ten percent of patients would easily get you there, depending 180 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 6: on the price. Of course, you keep dropping the price. 181 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 6: You need to push the volume up to get to 182 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 6: that total addressable market number. But the deals that they've 183 00:08:57,520 --> 00:09:00,319 Speaker 6: been doing, the data that we're getting from the drugs 184 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:02,720 Speaker 6: in terms of the other effects that they have sleep apnea, 185 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:06,360 Speaker 6: cardiovascular disease, et cetera, they all support the idea that 186 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 6: these drugs should be used by people who need them. 187 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:11,320 Speaker 6: Of course, we all hear stuff about people who don't 188 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:13,400 Speaker 6: actually need them. They just want to have it look 189 00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:15,720 Speaker 6: like they've got a nice six pack. You know. That's 190 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 6: a different conversation to have. But they are very beneficial 191 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:24,079 Speaker 6: for people who are genuinely overweight or obese and cannot 192 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 6: control their weight with the standard way of most people doing, 193 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 6: which is dropping eating and increasing exercise. It's not easy 194 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:31,679 Speaker 6: for everybody. 195 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 4: What about finding other use cases for these drugs. We 196 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 4: had no ver Nordisk with its Alzheimer's trial that wasn't successful. 197 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 4: Do you expect companies to find other areas of use 198 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:45,640 Speaker 4: or continue these trials that are often very costly for them. 199 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:49,319 Speaker 6: They are, but I think the things that are related 200 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:54,040 Speaker 6: to obesity, so cardiovascular risk, kidney function, sleep apnea is 201 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 6: one of them, I think those are the ones that 202 00:09:55,400 --> 00:10:00,680 Speaker 6: are clearly working. One could question whether the trial that 203 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:05,840 Speaker 6: Novo did was it's good enough. The drug that they 204 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:10,160 Speaker 6: use was obviously oral, some maglutide, and you wonder if 205 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:12,640 Speaker 6: there's enough drug there to have had an effect on 206 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:16,760 Speaker 6: Alzheimer's or whether these drugs just won't help Alzheimer's patients 207 00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 6: at all. I think there'll be more data coming. I'm 208 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:22,360 Speaker 6: pretty sure this is not over in the discussion about 209 00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:27,079 Speaker 6: GLP one function in a role in treating or preventing 210 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:29,079 Speaker 6: or reducing the risk of Alzheimer's disease. 211 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:32,959 Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 212 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 213 00:10:40,640 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 214 00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:47,200 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 215 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:50,160 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 216 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:52,760 Speaker 2: Through air Bus, I'm taking a look at Airbus here 217 00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:57,680 Speaker 2: some continued reports about some quality issues at their eight 218 00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:00,400 Speaker 2: three to twenty plane, which is kind of their backbone plane. 219 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:03,400 Speaker 2: So let's see what's happening with that stuff. We kind 220 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:05,199 Speaker 2: of became used to that type of news as it 221 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:07,240 Speaker 2: relates to Boeing in their seven thirty seven maxes over 222 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:09,400 Speaker 2: the last several years. But now it seems like Airbus 223 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:13,480 Speaker 2: maybe having some headwinds, to say the least. Here George Ferguson, 224 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:16,959 Speaker 2: senior Airspace, Defense and Airlines analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence Joints, 225 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 2: is here, George, what's going on at Airbus? They've been 226 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:22,199 Speaker 2: able to kind of fly under the radar quality concern 227 00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 2: issue wise till just recently. 228 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:29,200 Speaker 7: Yeah. I mean, I think they've also had their challenges 229 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:32,840 Speaker 7: in the supply chain along the way. Just Boeing challenges 230 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 7: were so much greater that they stole the spotlight, if 231 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:39,439 Speaker 7: you will. But I mean, look, the aerospace supply chain 232 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 7: is a bit thin, right. It doesn't have the same 233 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:45,040 Speaker 7: redundancy as like you'd get in an auto supply chain, 234 00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:47,520 Speaker 7: and so when you just have some little problem at 235 00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:50,840 Speaker 7: one of your suppliers, you know, it can really interrupt 236 00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:53,480 Speaker 7: your ability to deliver airplanes. And I think right now 237 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:56,680 Speaker 7: what you're seeing is that Airbus already has a really 238 00:11:56,720 --> 00:12:00,520 Speaker 7: tall order to meet the something like eight hundred twenty 239 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:05,120 Speaker 7: airplane guidance or delivery guidance they've got for this year. 240 00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:07,480 Speaker 7: We don't think they're going to make it. I think 241 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:11,560 Speaker 7: they need seventy plus a three twenties in the last 242 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:14,160 Speaker 7: two months of the year November December. We haven't seen 243 00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:18,079 Speaker 7: Novembers numbers yet, but we'll see them soon. We think 244 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:21,079 Speaker 7: that's pretty hard given they've kind of delured fifty five 245 00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:25,920 Speaker 7: ish most months of in the last couple, you know, 246 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:30,360 Speaker 7: for months, and so I think a quality problem here 247 00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:34,520 Speaker 7: probably really places in doubt their ability to make that guidance, 248 00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 7: and that's going to hurt their profitability for the year. 249 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:38,679 Speaker 7: So I think you've seen in the market react to that. 250 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:43,240 Speaker 4: George, you mentioned that really ambitious target for eight hundred 251 00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:45,760 Speaker 4: and twenty aircraft deliveries by the end of this year. 252 00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:48,920 Speaker 4: How disappointed could investors get if it fails to meet 253 00:12:48,960 --> 00:12:52,200 Speaker 4: that target on top of the headwinds that this company 254 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:52,960 Speaker 4: is already facing. 255 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:55,840 Speaker 7: Well, I mean, so I think you're starting to see, 256 00:12:56,040 --> 00:12:59,719 Speaker 7: you know, the disappointment here. Again, I'd be surprised if 257 00:12:59,760 --> 00:13:05,160 Speaker 7: most investors weren't already concerned that the target was too high. 258 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 7: I think Airbus has really put out a bunch of 259 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:12,360 Speaker 7: very ambitious build rate targets, right. I think our latest 260 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:13,960 Speaker 7: number in A three twenty is that we would be 261 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:17,880 Speaker 7: going to something like seventy five a month, and that's 262 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:21,520 Speaker 7: consistently throughout the entire year, right by the end of 263 00:13:21,559 --> 00:13:24,959 Speaker 7: twenty twenty six, which to us just seems far too high. 264 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:28,040 Speaker 7: And I feel like Airbus keeps trying to lead the 265 00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:32,199 Speaker 7: supplier base by pushing these higher numbers out and trying 266 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 7: to pull the supplier base along, and then over time 267 00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 7: lowers some of these expectations. So look, I think anything 268 00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:42,240 Speaker 7: they miss now isn't going away. It gets pushed into 269 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:44,599 Speaker 7: the next year and the next year, and again, I 270 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:48,599 Speaker 7: think the bigger challenge here is investors have to ask themselves, 271 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:51,760 Speaker 7: are a lot of these Airbus targets for delivery rates? 272 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:54,319 Speaker 7: Are they just too ambitious? And don't we have to 273 00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:57,079 Speaker 7: sort of knock them down when we build our consensus 274 00:13:57,080 --> 00:13:58,439 Speaker 7: for what we think the company's going to be able 275 00:13:58,440 --> 00:13:58,719 Speaker 7: to do. 276 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:01,720 Speaker 2: Because George, I mean a number of like seventies seems 277 00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:04,240 Speaker 2: really high to me, Because when we talk about Boeing, 278 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:06,120 Speaker 2: it's like, Gee, I hope they can get the forty 279 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:09,800 Speaker 2: maybe to fifty. Is that Dore's Boeing typically run that 280 00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:14,079 Speaker 2: far behind on a production schedule than a Airbus. 281 00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 7: So I would say that if you would consider normal 282 00:14:17,920 --> 00:14:20,600 Speaker 7: the end of the last decade when both were building 283 00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 7: and Boeing wasn't having the problems with mcass, Airbus was 284 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:28,320 Speaker 7: up in the higher sixties and Boeing was in the 285 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 7: higher fifties, and so we have traditionally seen Airbus be 286 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 7: able to put out more airplanes than Boeing. I think 287 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:39,560 Speaker 7: they're supply base maybe a little bit more robust, and 288 00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 7: I think they have sort of multiple final assembly areas 289 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:47,080 Speaker 7: around the world. I think those are some of the 290 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 7: reasons why Airbus can just has the infrastructure to put 291 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:53,840 Speaker 7: out more airplanes, more narrowbody airplanes per month. 292 00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:58,040 Speaker 2: Stay with us more from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 293 00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:05,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 294 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:09,080 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarclay, and Android Auto 295 00:15:09,200 --> 00:15:12,280 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 296 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:15,720 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 297 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:19,080 Speaker 2: Oday. One of the more competitive businesses that I've seen 298 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:21,800 Speaker 2: out there's at telecom business, particularly the wireless business. You 299 00:15:21,800 --> 00:15:23,600 Speaker 2: think about the three big carriers that we all have 300 00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:26,200 Speaker 2: a choice from, and then there's some other carriers out there. 301 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 2: But boy, it is just price competitive, like you wouldn't 302 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:33,120 Speaker 2: believe in the Churn of customers is a big, big 303 00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 2: issue for all the carriers. So we want to get 304 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:38,520 Speaker 2: a sense of what's going on in the world of telecoms, satellites, 305 00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:40,680 Speaker 2: all that kind of stuff. John Butler's our go to 306 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:43,280 Speaker 2: a personare senior telecom manel some Bloomberg Intelligence. 307 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:43,720 Speaker 5: John. 308 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 2: I know you Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. This is the time 309 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 2: of year where you guys publish your twenty twenty six 310 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:53,560 Speaker 2: outlooks what's key in your space of telecoms and satellites. 311 00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:57,640 Speaker 5: So I think the big thing to keep in mind here, Paul, 312 00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 5: is as we roll into twenty two twenty six, I 313 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:04,560 Speaker 5: think we're going to see price promotion take a modest 314 00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 5: step up. The bullets are really flying in wireless right now, 315 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:12,400 Speaker 5: As you suggested, I think part of it is AT 316 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 5: and T and Verizon both have new CEOs. Both CEOs 317 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:19,160 Speaker 5: are going to want to make their mark. I think 318 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 5: the one to watch is Dan Shulman at Verizon He 319 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:30,320 Speaker 5: is very focused on volume. He wants to get Verizon 320 00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:34,080 Speaker 5: back to subscriber growth, and I think the only way 321 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:36,480 Speaker 5: to do it is going to be by promoting a 322 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:39,200 Speaker 5: little bit more aggressively than they have in the past. 323 00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:44,280 Speaker 4: John, Where do you see these strongest incremental demands coming from. 324 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:46,360 Speaker 4: Is it going to be mobile data? Is it going 325 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:47,280 Speaker 4: to be broadband? 326 00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:52,720 Speaker 5: I think two areas Alex One, as you touched on, 327 00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:56,480 Speaker 5: is broadband. That's a real growth factor for the telecoms. 328 00:16:56,960 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 5: If you look at fixed wireless access, which is delivering 329 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:04,479 Speaker 5: broadband over a wireless link into the home, that has 330 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:08,159 Speaker 5: proven to be exceptionally popular with people. So I think 331 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:12,440 Speaker 5: the all three telcodes are going to lean into broadband 332 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:17,199 Speaker 5: in order to supplement the slowdown in wireless growth. But 333 00:17:17,280 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 5: the one area I'm watching as we move into next 334 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:24,760 Speaker 5: year is satellite. Starlink is partnered with T Mobile. The 335 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:30,280 Speaker 5: two of them are already offering limited texting service on 336 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:35,520 Speaker 5: a nationwide basis. It's sort of early stages. They are 337 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:39,400 Speaker 5: early innings, if you will, for them. Verizon, an AT 338 00:17:39,520 --> 00:17:42,959 Speaker 5: and T are partnered with ast Space Mobile, which is 339 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:47,200 Speaker 5: in the process of launching its constellation. Now they actually 340 00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:53,119 Speaker 5: have more better satellites than starlink, and so the space 341 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:55,359 Speaker 5: race is on. As I like to say, it's going 342 00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:59,159 Speaker 5: to be really interesting to see once for Verizon and 343 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 5: AT and T are able to launch services early next year, 344 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:05,480 Speaker 5: how that market segment unfolds. 345 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 2: So the wireless operators that the verizons of the world atts, John, 346 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 2: there are they they're partnering with some of these space 347 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:13,440 Speaker 2: satellite services. 348 00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:16,679 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I think the way to think about it, 349 00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:20,680 Speaker 5: Paul is it's almost like cell sites in space at 350 00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:24,040 Speaker 5: this point yep. So the major carriers have partnered with 351 00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 5: starlink and AST to provide that infrastructure and the transmission 352 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:33,520 Speaker 5: capability up in space to be able to provide coverage 353 00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:38,159 Speaker 5: outside the range of terrestrial networks now, so essentially that 354 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:43,280 Speaker 5: concept of coverage everywhere is going to become a reality 355 00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:45,080 Speaker 5: as we move through next year. 356 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:47,879 Speaker 4: I will say it was getting a new iPhone and 357 00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:51,440 Speaker 4: T Mobile. I'm still grandfathered into my father's plan. Very 358 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:53,680 Speaker 4: luck he's still paying for my cell phone. But they 359 00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:56,480 Speaker 4: immediately aught on comment by the way, to get Wi 360 00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:59,040 Speaker 4: Fi with them with T Mobile, So it's really interesting 361 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:01,639 Speaker 4: and a new offering from them, as you mentioned, John, 362 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:03,119 Speaker 4: So what's next? 363 00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:05,560 Speaker 5: Sorry, Well, go ahead. 364 00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:07,679 Speaker 2: Is there a six G out there? Because we I 365 00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:09,679 Speaker 2: think I've grown up and we've had three G, four G, 366 00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:12,040 Speaker 2: five G. Is there a six G out there? 367 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:13,760 Speaker 1: Not yet. 368 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:16,359 Speaker 5: I think six G is going to move onto the 369 00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:19,919 Speaker 5: horizon probably as we move through next year. It's a 370 00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:25,200 Speaker 5: development process by the industry, and so that standard, if 371 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:29,480 Speaker 5: you will, is getting developed now by industry committees. It 372 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:32,920 Speaker 5: will then move into tests probably in twenty twenty eight, 373 00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:37,800 Speaker 5: and become a reality for us by twenty thirty. Right now, 374 00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:40,640 Speaker 5: we're mid cycle with five GS. So if you think 375 00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 5: back to when four G was originally launched, it was 376 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 5: much lower speed than it is today. So that standard 377 00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 5: those generations of mobile evolve over what are typically ten 378 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:57,520 Speaker 5: year cycles. So we're mid cycle with five G. Expect 379 00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:00,680 Speaker 5: better speeds and better performance there as we move through 380 00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:04,720 Speaker 5: the next five years, and then ultimately sixty will appear, 381 00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:07,439 Speaker 5: probably again in the twenty thirty timeframe. 382 00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:13,440 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 383 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:17,120 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 384 00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:20,880 Speaker 1: weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, 385 00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:24,560 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 386 00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:27,880 Speaker 1: You can also watch US live every weekday on YouTube 387 00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:31,359 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal