Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Friday edition of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm
Speaker 2: Joe Matthew in Washington. We've got a lot to talk about,
Speaker 2: of course. The biggest story of the hour here is
Speaker 2: an attempt to keep the government from shutting down this
Speaker 2: weekend as the House prepares to vote on a continuing resolution.
Speaker 2: I'm not going to get too far on the weeds
Speaker 2: because it'll probably be different a couple of hours from now.
Speaker 2: But the headline at Bloomberg Government says it all. Our
Speaker 2: chief Budget reporter, Jack Fitzpatrick, the headline, stopgap work drags
Speaker 2: on as shut down deadline nears. That's kind of all
Speaker 2: you need to know, as Jack wrights, lawmakers expect to
Speaker 2: shut the government down after tomorrow night's deadline. The House
Speaker 2: and Senate continue to work on separate stopgap funding measures
Speaker 2: and have not even started by Cameron negotiations. So midnight
Speaker 2: Saturday Night Live, apparently this is all going to happen.
Speaker 2: Although that's what we've been hearing for weeks, and still
Speaker 2: the slow motion train wreck happens before our eyes. I'm
Speaker 2: glad to say that joining us from the Capitol right
Speaker 2: now is Congresswoman Haley Stevens, Democrat from Michigan's eleventh district,
Speaker 2: who we're going to talk about a couple of things with,
Speaker 2: including the latest from the UAW Congresswoman, it's great to
Speaker 2: see you, and thank you for joining us on what
Speaker 2: I know is a very busy day. I'm told that
Speaker 2: you might have to leave actually in a few moments
Speaker 2: to go vote on a continuing resolution. Is that going
Speaker 2: to happen today?
Speaker 3: We might get the hook mid interview and the bell
Speaker 3: might sound, I might have to go and vote. And
Speaker 3: you are correct that in the dark of the night,
Speaker 3: a continuing resolution dropped from House Republicans. It passed through
Speaker 3: the Rules Committee earlier this morning. It's moving through the
Speaker 3: House floor, and it's really, frankly, quite astonishing because it
Speaker 3: hasn't been negotiated in good faith with the other chamber
Speaker 3: of this institute. I serve in with the Senate, and
Speaker 3: we also know what needs to be signed by the President.
Speaker 3: So it appears that Republicans are acting in a very
Speaker 3: isolated way, trying to pass through unbelievable cuts, gutting a
Speaker 3: heating assistant program, gutting health services, gutting our food safety systems.
Speaker 3: And I've had a chance to digest as much of
Speaker 3: this bill as I can, and I don't plan to
Speaker 3: support it.
Speaker 2: Well, we're told as well it would be doa in
Speaker 2: the Senate. So clearly we're spinning our wheels here, Congresswoman,
Speaker 2: And it looks like there will be a shutdown tomorrow night.
Speaker 2: Can you tell us what the plan is? Will you
Speaker 2: stay through the weekend, assuming that that's the case, do
Speaker 2: lawmakers keep working until this is done?
Speaker 3: That right now appears to be the case. We are
Speaker 3: getting guidance that we will be voting through the weekend.
Speaker 3: And let me just be clear, this is entirely manufactured
Speaker 3: and in fact, it's been quite befuddling to me, and
Speaker 3: that when I started Congress, I was sworn in twenty
Speaker 3: nineteen during a partial government shutdown, that this is where
Speaker 3: we're going back to, and it's coming from the other party.
Speaker 3: This just isn't a way to govern this country. We
Speaker 3: know we're not always going to agree, but it just
Speaker 3: appears that a few in the Republican Party are holding
Speaker 3: everyone hostage. We're going to shut down this government, cost
Speaker 3: us money with the attempt to what They're not sure
Speaker 3: what they're going to get as a result of this,
Speaker 3: and it's really quite unfortunate and frankly frustrating.
Speaker 2: I hate to be repetitive to our listeners, Congresswoman, but
Speaker 2: I can be a stickler. I guess sometimes I'm just
Speaker 2: still struck by the fact that last August there was
Speaker 2: an agonizing debate, a week's long debate that prevented a
Speaker 2: default to make a deal that would avoid all of
Speaker 2: this drama, the debt limit deal that set top line
Speaker 2: numbers and created a structure. I guess I should say
Speaker 2: for this budget negotiating process that of course fell through.
Speaker 2: The Senate wanted more, members of the House wanted less.
Speaker 2: I just wonder your view, though. If Speaker McCarthy brought
Speaker 2: that back to the floor, it passed comfortably in bipartisan fashion.
Speaker 2: Would it pass again today?
Speaker 3: Well, I would say that it did pass at the time.
Speaker 3: It might not pass now. But in this business, we
Speaker 3: are in a place where your word is everything, and
Speaker 3: so we weren't supposed to be in this place we
Speaker 3: agreed to top line numbers we pass annual budgets in
Speaker 3: this country. I mean, I'm starting to look to Q
Speaker 3: one of next year thinking about where we're going to
Speaker 3: be in March when we're working on the twenty twenty
Speaker 3: five budget. Will we have a budget for this year?
Speaker 3: Are we going to put the American people through repeated shutdowns?
Speaker 3: Looking in the crystal ball. I was just on the
Speaker 3: floor of the House talking with colleagues, and we're I've
Speaker 3: almost never seen anything like this. We're all looking at
Speaker 3: each other with blank open eyes, wondering what's going to happen,
Speaker 3: wondering when the Republicans are going to come to the table. So, yes,
Speaker 3: you're right, we passed a deal in August. Would it
Speaker 3: pass today? It seems that the extreme few who have
Speaker 3: now taken the Republican Party and therefore the country and
Speaker 3: our Congress and somewhat our country hostage by their demands.
Speaker 3: I don't know if they'd pass something like that again,
Speaker 3: And that's certainly why they're heading towards the government shutdown
Speaker 3: right now.
Speaker 2: So the earth is shifting under our feet. Obviously, I
Speaker 2: want to ask you about the UIW congresswoman, but I'm
Speaker 2: curious about two things. What you make of this motion
Speaker 2: to vacate. We keep hearing about if there is a
Speaker 2: vote on a cr apparently Matt Gates will try to
Speaker 2: fire Kevin McCarthy. And are you hearing from moderate Republicans
Speaker 2: are you guys whispering in the halls about how you're
Speaker 2: going to save this Well.
Speaker 3: I'm going into a meeting with the problem Solver's Caucus
Speaker 3: later this afternoon. I'm not sure if that is going
Speaker 3: to be on the dock at Our meetings are private,
Speaker 3: but that is a bipartisan group. And frankly, what I've
Speaker 3: been hearing around motion of akate right now are rumors.
Speaker 3: I was in the middle of working last night when
Speaker 3: a Washington Post story broke about potentially replacing Speaker McCarthy
Speaker 3: with Tom Emmer. That hasn't necessarily been verified. Mister Emmer
Speaker 3: rejected those concerns. I think these rabble rousers are just
Speaker 3: trying to do anything to rest control, and maybe those
Speaker 3: holding the line see that as not necessarily the best
Speaker 3: path forward because they'll just be right back where they started.
Speaker 3: But one thing is clear. Trust has been broken. Trust
Speaker 3: has been broken with mister McCarthy and the Democratic Caucus
Speaker 3: and apparently the White House, and now it seems like
Speaker 3: within his own conference, which is why we are in
Speaker 3: this place. The American people are sick of manufactured crisis.
Speaker 3: I'm sick and tired of this as well. We don't
Speaker 3: need to be in this place. We were passing a
Speaker 3: Chips bill last year, we were doing infrastructure at the
Speaker 3: beginning of the term. We were lowering the costs of
Speaker 3: prescription drugs. You know, the American people need a government
Speaker 3: that's going to work for them. And yes, we need
Speaker 3: to tackle long term realities around our debt and our deficit,
Speaker 3: but this is not the way to do it. We've
Speaker 3: been doing this for ten years and it just doesn't
Speaker 3: cut it.
Speaker 2: We're talking with Congressman French Hill. A bit later on
Speaker 2: the Republican from Arkansas reportedly had some choice words. I
Speaker 2: believe it was an F word for the aforementioned Matt
Speaker 2: Gates congresswoman. Does that kind of symbolize the state of
Speaker 2: the Republican conference in the House?
Speaker 3: Well, I wasn't in that meeting, but I will say
Speaker 3: I have the utmost respect for mister Hill. We actually
Speaker 3: both serve as co chairs of the Task Force on
Speaker 3: American hostages and Americans wrongfully detained abroad. I've worked with
Speaker 3: him very closely on my constituent, Paul Wheeland, the longest
Speaker 3: detained American in Russia. And I think when someone like
Speaker 3: french Hill is reportedly losing their temper, you know something's
Speaker 3: not going right in the Republican Conference. And we're hoping
Speaker 3: coolier heads prevail. We're hoping that these extremists, we don't
Speaker 3: really know what's motivating their concerns. Right now, we'll put
Speaker 3: the country first, put good governance first, put stability first.
Speaker 4: We didn't.
Speaker 3: We just had a COVID nineteen disruption just a few
Speaker 3: short years ago that we just made our way out of.
Speaker 3: We've got a lot of good things going right now.
Speaker 3: Let's not manufacture this type of scenario.
Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you what. We'll relay what you said
Speaker 2: to Congressman Friendshil when he joins us on Balance of
Speaker 2: Power on Bloomberg TV at five o'clock later today. Congresswoman,
Speaker 2: we've got big news from Detroit. This would be our
Speaker 2: lead story on any other day without the government shutting down.
Speaker 2: It looks like Ford is back on the naughty lists.
Speaker 2: The UAW is stepping up strikes against GM and FORD
Speaker 2: not stillantis this time, But now that we've crossed another deadline,
Speaker 2: are we in any better place than we were a
Speaker 2: week ago.
Speaker 3: I continue to be hopeful that these negotiations will play
Speaker 3: out as the workers are intending them to for their
Speaker 3: stronger wages, for some of the paybacks from the concessions
Speaker 3: that they made fourteen years ago. And I'm not in
Speaker 3: the deal making room. I know that this is painful.
Speaker 3: It's tough for the workers who are striking. We really
Speaker 3: can't forget that, and hearing the stories on the picket line,
Speaker 3: I'll tell you when I was last home in Michigan,
Speaker 3: a thirty eight year UAW employee, he told me, he said,
Speaker 3: I wish I could afford the GM silverado that just
Speaker 3: drove by our picket line. And that's just not their reality.
Speaker 3: And it's interesting. I had the Detroit Regional Chamber in
Speaker 3: my office today and they expressed, similarly to almost everyone
Speaker 3: who's talking around this strike right now locally in Detroit,
Speaker 3: the workers deserve a race. The workers deserve a race.
Speaker 3: It's obviously not that simple as just waving a magic
Speaker 3: wand there's a lot of back and forth. It does seem,
Speaker 3: according to some of the Detroit headlines right now, that
Speaker 3: we're not in that immediate place to sign the deal.
Speaker 3: We know these strikes are continuing. These ones that have
Speaker 3: been announced today are quite large, and frankly, I wish
Speaker 3: I was home in Detroit to be with the workers,
Speaker 3: to be talking with the suppliers and negotiating that deal
Speaker 3: as best as I can as a lawmaker.
Speaker 2: Well, I see, congress women that you've reintroduced a bill
Speaker 2: to protect union workers in federal vehicle contracts. The UA
Speaker 2: DOUBD Job Protection Acts would require federal contract bidders to
Speaker 2: disclose all plant locations, interestingly where vehicles will be made,
Speaker 2: along with some other details. To what extent are the
Speaker 2: Big Three exposed to federal contracts.
Speaker 3: They are somewhat. This law came or this bill, I
Speaker 3: wish it was law. Yet this bill came about because
Speaker 3: of the contract awarded to Oshkosh Defense Industries around the
Speaker 3: Postal Service truck vehicles. They were supposed to be made
Speaker 3: with union labor. Contract gets awarded. Midway through they decide, well,
Speaker 3: we don't have the capacity here, so we're going to
Speaker 3: move this to a non union and we certainly could
Speaker 3: see something like this pertain to the Big Three, and
Speaker 3: that would actually be a great date because they're unionized shops.
Speaker 3: I'm really proud of this piece of legislation. I've got
Speaker 3: a lot of co sponsors. It's something we should get done.
Speaker 3: And frankly, it's very frustrating as a lawmaker when we
Speaker 3: pass these laws and then they go to be implemented.
Speaker 3: Around infrastructure, around the Inflation Reduction Act, We've got union provisions,
Speaker 3: prevailing wage provisions in there, and then somehow they get
Speaker 3: cut out as the deals go forward. And I do oversight,
Speaker 3: but we've got to take it a step further, which
Speaker 3: is why I've introduced this legislation.
Speaker 2: I have to ask you while you're with US Congresswoman,
Speaker 2: I didn't think we'd be speaking this long with I
Speaker 2: know you're looming votes, but we've lost Dianne Feinstein. We
Speaker 2: learned this morning that the Senator has passed at ninety
Speaker 2: the longest serving female US senator, who of course inspired
Speaker 2: many women and men for that matter, to enter politics.
Speaker 2: And I wonder if you have any reflections on this
Speaker 2: news today.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, thank you for the chance to reflect on
Speaker 3: the line of the Senate. Diane Feinstein. She was such
Speaker 3: a champion for gun safety. She led the assault weapons ban,
Speaker 3: and she blazed the path for so many women and
Speaker 3: her family, her legacy, it's in my thoughts. We were
Speaker 3: just on the floor of the House. Speaker McCarthy was
Speaker 3: in the chair. Nancy Pelosi, our Speaker emeritus, was behind
Speaker 3: the podium, and we had a moment of silence for
Speaker 3: Senator Feinstein. Obviously a tough time for her family and
Speaker 3: a real loss for the Senate at this time.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I appreciate your weighing in on that. Congresswoman, thanks
Speaker 2: for joining. It sounds like you're a no vote on
Speaker 2: the CR Did I get that right before you leave us?
Speaker 3: I don't plan to vote for this bill that would
Speaker 3: get critical funding for so many Americans and programs that
Speaker 3: we rely on, and frankly, something our president wouldn't sign
Speaker 3: and wouldn't make it through the Senate. We need a
Speaker 3: real let's be mature, let's get that done.
Speaker 2: I know it's a busy day on the ROWTNA, thanks
Speaker 2: for joining Congresswoman Haley Stevens, the Democrat from Michigan here
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Where
Speaker 2: it's going to be a working weekend. Hey maybe I'll
Speaker 2: talk to you Sunday night. Don't make plans for that.
Speaker 2: As we bring our panel in now, Genie Shanzano joins
Speaker 2: Democratic analyst and Bloomberg Politics contributor, and Lisa Camusa Miller
Speaker 2: is here as well. What a perfect panel to have today,
Speaker 2: partner at RESET Public Affairs, former RNC communications director. We're
Speaker 2: going to try to get to both sides of this,
Speaker 2: and we've got a lot to talk about here. Jeanie.
Speaker 2: I can't imagine what's going through your mind right now,
Speaker 2: because we've talked about this something like every day for
Speaker 2: the last month. We could have avoided this if serious
Speaker 2: people were at the table, couldn't we.
Speaker 5: That's right, And your conversation with Representative Stevens, I mean,
Speaker 5: she is just so clear and she is absolutely one
Speaker 5: thousand percent right. This is a max manufactured, man made crisis.
Speaker 5: It doesn't have to be this way, and it is
Speaker 5: being manufactured by a small number of Republicans to the
Speaker 5: detriment of all of us. So it is not surprising
Speaker 5: from one perspective. We knew it was coming, but it
Speaker 5: is shocking that they would push us to this degree.
Speaker 5: And also shocking that Kevin McCarthy doesn't call their bluff
Speaker 5: and say fire me. I'm going to do the work
Speaker 5: of the American people, all right, you want to do
Speaker 5: He hasn't done that yet. That's shocking.
Speaker 1: All right.
Speaker 2: We'll add the voice of Lisa Camuso Miller coming up
Speaker 2: as well, because you know, look, if they vote on
Speaker 2: this cr that Haley Stevens is about to vote no on,
Speaker 2: he gets fired. Right, That's what Matt Gates said. Let's
Speaker 2: see if we call any bluffs today. Our panels up next,
Speaker 2: Genie and Lisa. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the
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Speaker 2: As we reassemble our panel with regular order in mind here,
Speaker 2: Jeanie Shanzano is with us along with Lisa Camussa Miller,
Speaker 2: who was at one time the communications director for the RNC.
Speaker 2: She's now partner at Reset Public Affairs spend time in
Speaker 2: a Republican Speaker's office and knows exactly the conversation that's
Speaker 2: taking place. Are you chuckling right now, Lisa, over this
Speaker 2: victory lap on three spending bills or are you too depressed?
Speaker 6: Well, you know, Joe, this is hard to it's hard
Speaker 6: to laugh about because it really is the livelihood of
Speaker 6: so many American people. I mean, we think about government shutdown,
Speaker 6: it doesn't just affect the government workers. I mean it
Speaker 6: expands out to so many other people. But look, I
Speaker 6: think I think Speaker McCarthy is the right man for
Speaker 6: the job. He is absolutely trying to balance all of
Speaker 6: these different agendas, all of these different personalities, and he's
Speaker 6: making strides. He continues to punch above his weight. He
Speaker 6: continues to surprise people. And all of these other I mean,
Speaker 6: to Representative Stephen's point, all of these other mischief makers
Speaker 6: this small corner of the House Republican Conference, they are
Speaker 6: as powerful today as they will ever be because they
Speaker 6: continue to threaten the Speaker. But the truth of it
Speaker 6: is that there is no candidate that they could get
Speaker 6: across the line. There is no speaker that they could
Speaker 6: put in place, and there is no one else that
Speaker 6: could do the job better than Kevin McCarthy. So no,
Speaker 6: I don't think that this is our best demonstration of
Speaker 6: American politics, it's at all. But I do think that
Speaker 6: that a lot of the hyperbolean nonsense that's going on
Speaker 6: in the fringes about the speaker himself is really super unfair.
Speaker 2: You know, he was asked about this directly in that
Speaker 2: same conversation with reporters about the motion to vacate. I'm curious, though,
Speaker 2: and I'll play you what he said, Lisa. How many
Speaker 2: people are we talking about here? I mean, the we're
Speaker 2: general headlines all over the world. Is it Matt Gates?
Speaker 2: Is it we know it's Mack Gates? Is it two
Speaker 2: other people? Is it four people? I mean, what you
Speaker 2: could count on a hand, correct, the number of lawmakers
Speaker 2: holding this up?
Speaker 6: Yes, that's correct. I mean, on one hand, I think
Speaker 6: and I think that there's probably contours of a variety
Speaker 6: of folks in the Freedom Caucus that are agitating in
Speaker 6: one direction or another. But the truth of it is
Speaker 6: is that the mastermind behind all of this mischief is
Speaker 6: mac Gates, and it's because he has a personal vendetta
Speaker 6: against the speaker from everything I see, so this alone,
Speaker 6: it's petty, it's childish, it's honestly, it's just it's it's
Speaker 6: bad government and it really needs to stop.
Speaker 2: Well, it came up as I mentioned today, Genie, I
Speaker 2: don't know if you think of Matt Gates as a mastermind.
Speaker 2: I know Lisa didn't mean it that way. But here's
Speaker 2: Kevin McCarthy's answer to you know, you're reaching out to
Speaker 2: members to try to see if you can survive emotion
Speaker 2: to vacate. I've never asked anybody that question on I
Speaker 2: don't intend to any other. Best thing to do is
Speaker 2: just leave you here, just lead, Jeanie. I suspect there's
Speaker 2: some wisdom there. But is it going to work?
Speaker 4: Well, you know, God willing for all of us, it works.
Speaker 5: But we are now, you know, just several hours away
Speaker 5: from a really dramatic shutdown.
Speaker 4: We will have two million people in the.
Speaker 5: Armed forces and law enforcement who will work and not
Speaker 5: get paid. But you know who will get paid, Kevin McCarthy,
Speaker 5: Matt Gates, every member of Congress, the President, right, because
Speaker 5: they get paid under the constitution. So we do need leadership.
Speaker 5: But this is not the kind and the reality is
Speaker 5: this is a result of a deal Kevin McCarthy made
Speaker 5: to have his job. We still don't know what was
Speaker 5: in most of that deal because it's apparently not written down,
Speaker 5: and when reporters go on the hell and ask him,
Speaker 5: he won't say.
Speaker 7: So.
Speaker 5: We don't know a lot of what's in that deal.
Speaker 5: But he made the deal to get this job. So
Speaker 5: I don't think this is about Matt Gates, and I
Speaker 5: don't see Matt Gates as a mastermind or any of
Speaker 5: those other folks. This is about Kevin McCarthy. He does
Speaker 5: he's right have to lead, But you cannot lead if
Speaker 5: you start your job with your hand tied behind your
Speaker 5: back promising that you will be beholden to the far
Speaker 5: right or far left, or any single member of the caucus.
Speaker 5: That's not the way leadership work. He did show leadership
Speaker 5: when it came to default. He walked away from that
Speaker 5: deal to save his job. He has to stand up
Speaker 5: and say, fire me, I'm going to lead for the
Speaker 5: American people.
Speaker 4: Fire me, Matt.
Speaker 5: Let Matt Gates move ahead with the motion and see
Speaker 5: where the chips fall.
Speaker 4: But he's not doing that.
Speaker 5: He's doing everything he can to save his job and
Speaker 5: that's why we are all in this position, so he
Speaker 5: can save his job.
Speaker 2: Well, I know that you see this a little bit
Speaker 2: differently here, Lisa. If the motion to vacate, actually, if
Speaker 2: Matt Gates goes there, what happens next. Kevin McCarthy's got
Speaker 2: to be talking to the rank and file about this now,
Speaker 2: and Democrats too.
Speaker 6: I think that that's probably Matt Gates's last best move.
Speaker 6: I mean, I think that's the last time that he
Speaker 6: has any power at all in the conference. You know,
Speaker 6: the motion to vacate only takes you know, it takes
Speaker 6: a small uh, it takes one vote, right, But then
Speaker 6: we watched how the speaker's race went. We saw fifteen
Speaker 6: votes right, and that was for Kevin McCarthy, who had
Speaker 6: a large swath of support in the conference already. So
Speaker 6: to me, this seems like another It seems it's Groundhog
Speaker 6: Day over and over again. This just happens to be
Speaker 6: the one that is the most public and most recent.
Speaker 6: But I remember a time with Louis Gohmert and other
Speaker 6: members in the House were yelling and screaming about the
Speaker 6: possibility of challenging whoever the front runner was, and they
Speaker 6: could never get the votes, Joe, And so this is
Speaker 6: just noise, its distraction, and look to the Congressman's point earlier,
Speaker 6: it's childish and it's unnecessary.
Speaker 2: Okay, So you don't think it would succeed. The Washington
Speaker 2: Post is out with a screamer this morning saying Tom
Speaker 2: Emmers being teed up as as the next speaker of
Speaker 2: the House that members want to can tingency plan in
Speaker 2: case Kevin McCarthy gets fired. Lisa clearly doesn't buy it.
Speaker 2: How about Eugenie.
Speaker 5: You know, I don't see any sign that Tom Emmer
Speaker 5: wants this job. Who on earth with any sense would
Speaker 5: want this job at this point, As the representative said,
Speaker 5: and you have talked about many times, Joe, this is
Speaker 5: not just Kevin McCarthy. It is a Republican caucus that
Speaker 5: is ungovernable. Just ask Ryan, just ask Bayner. If he falls,
Speaker 5: Kevin McCarthy will be the third Republican speaker in the
Speaker 5: last several years to fall because of a caucus that
Speaker 5: is ungovernable. So I don't think Tom Emmer would want
Speaker 5: this job. But if he took it, is he some
Speaker 5: kind of magician who would make this all work? I
Speaker 5: don't see how that could happen. And if Kevin McCarthy
Speaker 5: does work with Democrats to keep the government open or
Speaker 5: to keep his job, he's going to have a heck
Speaker 5: of a time trying to do anything else while he
Speaker 5: remained Speaker. It is a huge conundrum for him and
Speaker 5: anybody else who tries to lead this caucus at this point.
Speaker 2: Lisa Cavusa, you worked in the Speaker's office, in Dennis
Speaker 2: Hastert's office. What's going on behind closed doors right now?
Speaker 6: That's the longest days of their lives, Joe. These people
Speaker 6: are working NonStop, working constantly to find ways to get
Speaker 6: members to come across the line to support various negotiations
Speaker 6: as they're coming through it is. It's cutthroat, it's emotional,
Speaker 6: they're exhausted, and it's honestly, I'm tired of just thinking
Speaker 6: about how much work is going on right now, between
Speaker 6: the staff, the leadership, the policy teams, the whip team.
Speaker 6: There's so many people involved in this process, and no
Speaker 6: one is sleeping.
Speaker 1: It is.
Speaker 6: They're working their butts off, for one and they're doing
Speaker 6: everything they can to try to get this over the line.
Speaker 6: That's apparent to me, and that's a parent from the
Speaker 6: disposition the speaker has had with every time he comes
Speaker 6: to the sticks talks to reporters, is that they are
Speaker 6: working as hard as they get to get this right.
Speaker 6: But I just I think that it's not We're not
Speaker 6: there and we're not going to get there by twelve
Speaker 6: midnight on Saturday night and Sunday morning.
Speaker 2: Wow, she's having flashbacks live on the air here. I'm
Speaker 2: feeling for you, Lisa. I mean to pull you back
Speaker 2: into all of that. But yeah, the cots are coming
Speaker 2: out right, the takeout food, the wine bottles are coming in.
Speaker 2: This is This is a working weekend in Washington, and
Speaker 2: we'll keep you posted on all of this as we
Speaker 2: get closer to the deadline. But it looks like this
Speaker 2: is done. Lisa Camuso, Miller and Genie Shanzano back with
Speaker 2: more of our panel. Next.
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Speaker 2: So Ford is back on the naughty list. The UAW
Speaker 2: has been hearing on Bloomberg is expanding its historic strike
Speaker 2: against all three of the Big three, this time targeting
Speaker 2: GM and Ford. Remember a week ago at this time,
Speaker 2: they held off on Ford because progress was being made.
Speaker 2: This week it's Stillantis. They're holding back on Stalantis. And
Speaker 2: we heard about this from Seawn Faine a bit earlier.
Speaker 2: Of course, the head of the United Auto Workers.
Speaker 8: What we went at the bargaining table depends on the
Speaker 8: power we build on the job. It's time to use
Speaker 8: that power. That's why I'm calling on an additional seven
Speaker 8: thousand members across Ford and GM to go on strike
Speaker 8: starting at noon Eastern today.
Speaker 2: Newly targeted facility as a FORD factory in Chicago produces
Speaker 2: the Explorer and a GM plant in Lansing, Michigan, manufactures
Speaker 2: the Chevy Traverse. According to Sean Fain, they had planned
Speaker 2: to strike at Stilantis, but something obviously happened here. They've
Speaker 2: been making some progress. Let's bring our panel in for
Speaker 2: more on this. Genie Shanze No, Lisa Camuso Miller. It's
Speaker 2: just one of the stories they're developing. I'm trying to
Speaker 2: keep up with the news here to get both of
Speaker 2: your takes on them. Jeanie, how's this hit you now?
Speaker 2: It doesn't sound like much of anything has changed in
Speaker 2: the last week. Does this just keep escalating?
Speaker 5: You know, I think for the time we were seeing
Speaker 5: some light at the end of the tunnel. That seems
Speaker 5: to maybe have subsided a bit, unfortunately. But I do
Speaker 5: think it was good news that the union was talking
Speaker 5: about a thirty as opposed to forty percent pay increase.
Speaker 4: That's the right direction for them to go.
Speaker 5: And you know, we all knew this was going to
Speaker 5: be a long strike, and I think we are set
Speaker 5: up for that at this point. And let's not forget
Speaker 5: you know, we've talked about the fact that the writers
Speaker 5: out in Hollywood they have reached an agreement apparently, but
Speaker 5: we are looking at a healthcare strike now in the
Speaker 5: next few days, next week potentially. So the strikes and
Speaker 5: the labor uprising across the country continues, and it can
Speaker 5: be really detrimental to the economy. But is just an
Speaker 5: indication as the strike summer now becomes strike fall, and
Speaker 5: that doesn't seem to be subsiding at all.
Speaker 2: Boy, that's for sure, Lisa. We saw both Joe Biden
Speaker 2: and Donald Trump speaking to union workers, I guess, both
Speaker 2: in their own ways this week. Joe Biden, though, was
Speaker 2: on the picket line. At what point does this become
Speaker 2: a liability politically for him or is it already?
Speaker 6: I think it's already, Joe. I mean, this is a
Speaker 6: president who has been a friend of unions for a
Speaker 6: long time, for as long as he's been in public office,
Speaker 6: and he is proud of that, and that's why he
Speaker 6: went That's why he went to the picket line. That's
Speaker 6: why he went to do what he could to be helpful. Unfortunately, though,
Speaker 6: if you're in the White House, you are going to
Speaker 6: bear the burden of any of these bad economic news.
Speaker 6: And Jeanie's point is right on. This is going to
Speaker 6: have far reaching impacts and it's happening all across the
Speaker 6: labor market, and you know what, and good for them
Speaker 6: that they're speaking up and speaking out and getting noticed
Speaker 6: and getting the workers what they deserve. But also too,
Speaker 6: the impact as we talk about government shut down, this is,
Speaker 6: all of this is going to have a tremendous impact
Speaker 6: on the economy, and unfortunately for the president, he's going
Speaker 6: to bear the burden of that.
Speaker 2: We are watching the House floor. I want to mention
Speaker 2: as we stand by for a final vote here on
Speaker 2: a continuing resolution, it appears enough Republicans have already voted
Speaker 2: no to sink this. It's not going to happen. That
Speaker 2: basically guarantees here. Although you knew that when you woke
Speaker 2: up at the government, we'll shut down tomorrow at midnight.
Speaker 2: Geenie Shanzeno and Lisa Camuso Miller are with us as
Speaker 2: we reflect on another top story today. We can just
Speaker 2: keep on going here. Dianne Feinstein has died, of course,
Speaker 2: the longest serving female Senator, now passing it ninety and
Speaker 2: there are a lot of questions about what happens next.
Speaker 2: But I'd love to hear from both of you on
Speaker 2: her legacy. Nancy Pelosi spoke from the House floor a
Speaker 2: very emotional address as she asked for unanimous consent and
Speaker 2: gathered the entire California delegation in the well of the chamber.
Speaker 2: A taste of what she had to say.
Speaker 9: Thank you, mister Speaker, for the purpose of speaking with
Speaker 9: great sadness and emotion about the loss of our great senator,
Speaker 9: our senior senator from California, Senator Dianne Feinstein. I do
Speaker 9: so as I say personally as a friend, neighbor, and
Speaker 9: fellow San Franciscan.
Speaker 2: She won her seat, of course, in the Year of
Speaker 2: the Woman nineteen ninety two, as it produced four new
Speaker 2: female Senators, tripling the number of women in the Upper
Speaker 2: Chamber to six. This is a tough day for a
Speaker 2: lot of Democrats, obviously, Nancy Pelosi emotional Genie, what's going
Speaker 2: through your mind?
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, and I would say she had an
Speaker 5: awful lot of friends across the aisle as well, and
Speaker 5: so it is a very tough day. I think the
Speaker 5: word you hear most often attached to her as a
Speaker 5: trail blazer. Rightly, so she really was. As you mentioned,
Speaker 5: teen ninety four, four women elected to the Senate, and
Speaker 5: we called it the Year of the Woman. You know,
Speaker 5: the first time we saw two women representing our largest
Speaker 5: state of California, and she did so for so long.
Speaker 5: I think the thing I'll remember most about Diane Feinstein
Speaker 5: is her ability to reach across the aisle. She was
Speaker 5: a trail blazer, to use that word again, as it
Speaker 5: pertained to issues that still haunt us today, like gun control.
Speaker 5: She also was willing to speak truth to power, even
Speaker 5: when it was not in the interest of her own party.
Speaker 5: We never forget that. After nine to eleven, she releases
Speaker 5: the report about the treatment of detainees, much to the
Speaker 5: dismay of many Democrats.
Speaker 4: So she's a real, real sort.
Speaker 5: Of example for us today at this really partisan time
Speaker 5: of somebody who governed herself and reached across the aisle
Speaker 5: and worked with.
Speaker 4: People from the other party. And of course she.
Speaker 5: Will be sorely miss, as Representative Haley told you Stevens
Speaker 5: Rather and as we just heard from Nancy Pelosi.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Lisa Genie's right. She was known for her tussles
Speaker 2: with the intelligence community, with gun makers. How should we
Speaker 2: remember Diane.
Speaker 6: Feinstein unapologetically American and just loyal and patriotic, and she
Speaker 6: was a leader and a hero for so many. So
Speaker 6: set aside all politics. What I loved about the Senator
Speaker 6: is that she really did speak to power. I mean,
Speaker 6: she really did stand up to those regardless of politics,
Speaker 6: regardless of party, and did the right thing. And that's
Speaker 6: the way she will be remembered. She'll be remembered for.
Speaker 2: All of the.
Speaker 6: All of the historic marks that she hit, you know,
Speaker 6: from being the first female mayor of San Francisco to
Speaker 6: being you know, the elected in the year of the
Speaker 6: Woman ninety two. I mean just yeah, a big loss
Speaker 6: for the Senate, a big loss for the Senate and
Speaker 6: a big loss for the country.
Speaker 2: Veteran in the Senate as well as we consider the
Speaker 2: next generation here. I appreciate the comments from both Lisa
Speaker 2: and Jeannie.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: We're joined now by the Vice President, Director of Economic
Speaker 2: Studies Program at Brooking's former chief economist Treasury Department. He
Speaker 2: was also a former Assistant Treasury Secretary in the Biden deministration,
Speaker 2: and he's all ours at the moment. Bennett's great to
Speaker 2: see you as we try to understand what's actually going
Speaker 2: on inside the Treasury right now. When it becomes clear
Speaker 2: that a shutdown is happening, what are the next steps.
Speaker 7: Well, the Treasury Department, like every other federal agency, has
Speaker 7: put out contingency plans understanding that this might actually happen.
Speaker 7: Much of Treasury operations will continue as normal, so at
Speaker 7: least for the short term, so social curity recipients will
Speaker 7: continue to receive their checks. Payments will generally continue to
Speaker 7: be processed within Treasury. The big disruption in operations will
Speaker 7: come from the IRS. So, for example, the IRS has
Speaker 7: said that it may have to stop processing some tax transcripts.
Speaker 7: So think about when you apply for a mortgage and
Speaker 7: you get this tax transcript that might be interrupted. And
Speaker 7: so roughly half of IRS employees will not report to work.
Speaker 7: As my understanding and reading the contingency plan, on day
Speaker 7: one of the shutdown.
Speaker 2: We got a warning from Moody's. I'm sure you saw
Speaker 2: that Ben just a couple of days ago, threatening to
Speaker 2: join Fitch and S and P in removing our top
Speaker 2: credit ratings. How likely is that to happen knowing that
Speaker 2: we'll continue paying our debt.
Speaker 7: Well, Fitch obviously felt comfortable doing it, and Fitch, if
Speaker 7: you read the justification for the shutdown, what was feature
Speaker 7: centrally in that was the inability for the US government
Speaker 7: to continue doing its job. And so this just feels
Speaker 7: like this massive unforced error. I mean, we have known
Speaker 7: about the start of the fiscal year for literally years.
Speaker 7: We've had a framework for this, going back to May
Speaker 7: when you saw that bipartisan compromise coming out setting discretionary
Speaker 7: spending levels. So this is not a surprise to appropriators.
Speaker 7: It's not a surprise in Matt Gates. It's not a
Speaker 7: surprise to the extremists in the House who are trying
Speaker 7: to blow all of this up. So, you know, I
Speaker 7: think that what we can expect moving forward is a
Speaker 7: lot of displeasure, not just from American people, but also
Speaker 7: from legislators who felt like they had a deal in place.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, look, if the downgrade is going to
Speaker 2: be based on chaos and deficit spending, how about we
Speaker 2: just rip off the band aid because neither we'll be
Speaker 2: changing anytime soon, right.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, I think we need to focus on
Speaker 7: the crisis which is directly in front of us, and
Speaker 7: this is a government shutdown. One point I want to
Speaker 7: make is that not all government shutdowns are created equally.
Speaker 7: So you go back to nineteen ninety five, we had
Speaker 7: that twenty one day shutdown, but that only impacted about
Speaker 7: a quarter of discretionary spending and military was not included.
Speaker 7: You go back to the shutdown that happened under the
Speaker 7: Trump administration that lasted for thirty five days, only about
Speaker 7: thirty three percent of government spending was impacted, and the
Speaker 7: military was not included. We're talking about the whole suite
Speaker 7: of appropriations bills here. One hundred percent of discretionary spending
Speaker 7: is potentially on the table. So this shutdown can even
Speaker 7: be worse than ones we've seen in the past.
Speaker 2: I saw you in the Deal Book this morning, Ben,
Speaker 2: and you were talking about the impact that this might
Speaker 2: have UNFED officials' ability to manage inflation, to forecast, to
Speaker 2: model around the economy, and you wrote, quote, it's like
Speaker 2: a pilot trying to land a plane without knowing what
Speaker 2: the runway looks like. That's where we are now, That's
Speaker 2: where we are now.
Speaker 7: And you know, the FED is another example of an
Speaker 7: entity in the US economy that relies on the government
Speaker 7: for either information or for processing or for providing services.
Speaker 7: And so the FED is obviously in the middle of
Speaker 7: a very difficult period when it comes to making decisions
Speaker 7: around FOMC. And we may ask members of the FED
Speaker 7: to make a decision about monetary policy without knowing what
Speaker 7: the unemployment rate is, and that is just crazy. And
Speaker 7: I'm just I'm not sure that these really extremist members
Speaker 7: of the House are considering this as part of their
Speaker 7: calculus when they're pulling all these stunts.
Speaker 2: Well, I suppose not, but we should remind our viewers
Speaker 2: and our listeners here Ben that we will not get
Speaker 2: economic data until this is solved. That could be weeks.
Speaker 2: The impact on the markets alone being in the darklight,
Speaker 2: that could be significant.
Speaker 7: Exactly, we have no idea how long this is going
Speaker 7: to last for, and a lot of the economic disruption
Speaker 7: intensifies over time. So you've probably heard that TSA screeners,
Speaker 7: air traffic controllers will report to work.
Speaker 2: On day one. That's true.
Speaker 7: But look, these people all have bills to pay, and
Speaker 7: if they're not being paid, they have to go make
Speaker 7: the money somewhere else. And so when we've seen really
Speaker 7: long government shutdowns in the past, is that you start
Speaker 7: to see these increased rates of these workers calling in sick. Look,
Speaker 7: our nation's domestic travel system is pretty central to the
Speaker 7: US economy. And if it means you can't go through security,
Speaker 7: if it means you can't safely travel on an airplane
Speaker 7: because an air traffic controller isn't reporting to work, that's
Speaker 7: a pretty steep economic cost. And I could give you
Speaker 7: a dozen different examples about how this impacts the US economy,
Speaker 7: But the point is is that the magnitude of the shock,
Speaker 7: the intensity of the disruption increases over time.
Speaker 2: Well, isn't that right? Is it possible? Maybe you can
Speaker 2: bring us inside the Treasury Department here for a moment. Well,
Speaker 2: they have their own estimates on economic data. Would commerce,
Speaker 2: for instance, have its own Does the White House have
Speaker 2: data that just simply won't be released publicly or those
Speaker 2: numbers will not be available period.
Speaker 7: Those numbers will not be available period. Now you've seen
Speaker 7: some Fed officials say, look, we can go we can
Speaker 7: turn to other sources of data. They can turn to
Speaker 7: private sources of data to try to get a sense
Speaker 7: of what's going on. But if I'm making if I'm
Speaker 7: on the FOMC, or if I'm staffing someone on the FOMC,
Speaker 7: I really want the best data possible so that person
Speaker 7: can can make the best informed decision. There's nothing that
Speaker 7: substitutes for a federal inflation report. There's nothing that substitutes
Speaker 7: for the employment report. There's just that's too comprehensive, too
Speaker 7: well established, and there's there's really no substitute for those
Speaker 7: data sources.
Speaker 2: Are we making phone calls to foreign debt holders? Is
Speaker 2: their business? Are their transactions with overseas governments that are
Speaker 2: impacted by this.
Speaker 7: Not that I'm aware of. You know, I think that
Speaker 7: the debt payments will continue to be made. This isn't
Speaker 7: quite as severe or really anywhere near as severe as
Speaker 7: the debt ceiling impass that we were dealing with back
Speaker 7: in May of this year. That doesn't mean it's not costly.
Speaker 7: So Goldman has an estimate that this will subtract about
Speaker 7: zero point two percent off of growth. About three fourths
Speaker 7: of that impact comes from federal employees not getting paid
Speaker 7: and the rest comes from the private sector. But I
Speaker 7: think that, you know, most of the payments will continue
Speaker 7: to be made. What doesn't happen is that things like
Speaker 7: small business loan applications, those won't get processed. But as
Speaker 7: far as the payment system for the federal government, in
Speaker 7: most circumstances, that will continue as normal.
Speaker 2: We're spending time with Ben Harris's former chief economists the
Speaker 2: Treasury Department. He's now head of the Economic Studies program
Speaker 2: at Brookings. Interesting headlines today from Janet Yellen. Ben, I'm
Speaker 2: not sure if you saw this, but I'd love your
Speaker 2: take if you did. She was talking about recent prices,
Speaker 2: showing that the price cap on Russian oil may not
Speaker 2: actually be effective, that it may not be working. And
Speaker 2: we know that Russia has brought in billions of dollars
Speaker 2: in dark oil exports. What do you make of this news?
Speaker 7: So my take on the price cap was that the
Speaker 7: price cap was enormously effective over the first half a
Speaker 7: year or so after it was put in place. Russia
Speaker 7: has undertaken countermeasures which I think probably surprised no one,
Speaker 7: and has shifted a larger sere of that trade outside
Speaker 7: of the price cap coalition. This doesn't mean that the
Speaker 7: price cap isn't effective or wasn't effective in the past.
Speaker 2: It was.
Speaker 7: What it means is the coalition needs to adapt and
Speaker 7: evolve and put in place remedies that push back against
Speaker 7: those countermeasures that Russia has undertaken.
Speaker 2: So what should the next step look like? Should this
Speaker 2: remain in place?
Speaker 7: Oh, it should definitely remain in place. I think the
Speaker 7: next step is increased enforcement on behalf of the coalition,
Speaker 7: so not just within the United States, but in Europe
Speaker 7: and in other coalition countries. I think it could take
Speaker 7: steps such as potentially banning the sale of tankers to Russia.
Speaker 7: I would have liked to see that measure be put
Speaker 7: in place, but it's really a focus, I think on
Speaker 7: enforcement rather than adjusting the price cap levels. We need
Speaker 7: to keep a fairly substantial share of Russian oil trade
Speaker 7: under the price cap for it to remain effective, and
Speaker 7: that's really what's up to the coalition to take on next.
Speaker 2: We look glad you could join us today. Ben Harris,
Speaker 2: vice President, Director of Economic Studies at Brookings, formerly with
Speaker 2: the Treasury Department of the Biden administration, and a very
Speaker 2: recent memory with reflections here of what's happening at the
Speaker 2: Treasury now with our government set to shut down tomorrow
Speaker 2: at midnight, we'll continue to bring you voices from inside
Speaker 2: the Beltway to better understand what's happening in this time
Speaker 2: of chaos. Us here on sound On. I'm Joe Matthew.
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the sound On podcast.
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