1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,760 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:12,720 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcast. 5 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:16,400 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Friday edition of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm 6 00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:19,200 Speaker 2: Joe Matthew in Washington. We've got a lot to talk about, 7 00:00:19,800 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 2: of course. The biggest story of the hour here is 8 00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: an attempt to keep the government from shutting down this 9 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 2: weekend as the House prepares to vote on a continuing resolution. 10 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 2: I'm not going to get too far on the weeds 11 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:33,920 Speaker 2: because it'll probably be different a couple of hours from now. 12 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 2: But the headline at Bloomberg Government says it all. Our 13 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:42,000 Speaker 2: chief Budget reporter, Jack Fitzpatrick, the headline, stopgap work drags 14 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:44,479 Speaker 2: on as shut down deadline nears. That's kind of all 15 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:47,800 Speaker 2: you need to know, as Jack wrights, lawmakers expect to 16 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 2: shut the government down after tomorrow night's deadline. The House 17 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 2: and Senate continue to work on separate stopgap funding measures 18 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 2: and have not even started by Cameron negotiations. So midnight 19 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 2: Saturday Night Live, apparently this is all going to happen. 20 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:05,120 Speaker 2: Although that's what we've been hearing for weeks, and still 21 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 2: the slow motion train wreck happens before our eyes. I'm 22 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 2: glad to say that joining us from the Capitol right 23 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:15,840 Speaker 2: now is Congresswoman Haley Stevens, Democrat from Michigan's eleventh district, 24 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 2: who we're going to talk about a couple of things with, 25 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:20,880 Speaker 2: including the latest from the UAW Congresswoman, it's great to 26 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:22,319 Speaker 2: see you, and thank you for joining us on what 27 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:24,360 Speaker 2: I know is a very busy day. I'm told that 28 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:27,120 Speaker 2: you might have to leave actually in a few moments 29 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 2: to go vote on a continuing resolution. Is that going 30 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:30,399 Speaker 2: to happen today? 31 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:34,039 Speaker 3: We might get the hook mid interview and the bell 32 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 3: might sound, I might have to go and vote. And 33 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 3: you are correct that in the dark of the night, 34 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:44,960 Speaker 3: a continuing resolution dropped from House Republicans. It passed through 35 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 3: the Rules Committee earlier this morning. It's moving through the 36 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 3: House floor, and it's really, frankly, quite astonishing because it 37 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 3: hasn't been negotiated in good faith with the other chamber 38 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 3: of this institute. I serve in with the Senate, and 39 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 3: we also know what needs to be signed by the President. 40 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:08,400 Speaker 3: So it appears that Republicans are acting in a very 41 00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:14,360 Speaker 3: isolated way, trying to pass through unbelievable cuts, gutting a 42 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:21,680 Speaker 3: heating assistant program, gutting health services, gutting our food safety systems. 43 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 3: And I've had a chance to digest as much of 44 00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:27,360 Speaker 3: this bill as I can, and I don't plan to 45 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:27,919 Speaker 3: support it. 46 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:32,160 Speaker 2: Well, we're told as well it would be doa in 47 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:36,279 Speaker 2: the Senate. So clearly we're spinning our wheels here, Congresswoman, 48 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:38,639 Speaker 2: And it looks like there will be a shutdown tomorrow night. 49 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:40,840 Speaker 2: Can you tell us what the plan is? Will you 50 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 2: stay through the weekend, assuming that that's the case, do 51 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 2: lawmakers keep working until this is done? 52 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:49,760 Speaker 3: That right now appears to be the case. We are 53 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:52,800 Speaker 3: getting guidance that we will be voting through the weekend. 54 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 3: And let me just be clear, this is entirely manufactured 55 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 3: and in fact, it's been quite befuddling to me, and 56 00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 3: that when I started Congress, I was sworn in twenty 57 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 3: nineteen during a partial government shutdown, that this is where 58 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 3: we're going back to, and it's coming from the other party. 59 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:14,400 Speaker 3: This just isn't a way to govern this country. We 60 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:16,680 Speaker 3: know we're not always going to agree, but it just 61 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:20,480 Speaker 3: appears that a few in the Republican Party are holding 62 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:23,640 Speaker 3: everyone hostage. We're going to shut down this government, cost 63 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:27,800 Speaker 3: us money with the attempt to what They're not sure 64 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:29,440 Speaker 3: what they're going to get as a result of this, 65 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:32,639 Speaker 3: and it's really quite unfortunate and frankly frustrating. 66 00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 2: I hate to be repetitive to our listeners, Congresswoman, but 67 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 2: I can be a stickler. I guess sometimes I'm just 68 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 2: still struck by the fact that last August there was 69 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 2: an agonizing debate, a week's long debate that prevented a 70 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 2: default to make a deal that would avoid all of 71 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 2: this drama, the debt limit deal that set top line 72 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:57,000 Speaker 2: numbers and created a structure. I guess I should say 73 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 2: for this budget negotiating process that of course fell through. 74 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:05,920 Speaker 2: The Senate wanted more, members of the House wanted less. 75 00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:09,840 Speaker 2: I just wonder your view, though. If Speaker McCarthy brought 76 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 2: that back to the floor, it passed comfortably in bipartisan fashion. 77 00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:18,040 Speaker 2: Would it pass again today? 78 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 3: Well, I would say that it did pass at the time. 79 00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 3: It might not pass now. But in this business, we 80 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:28,920 Speaker 3: are in a place where your word is everything, and 81 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 3: so we weren't supposed to be in this place we 82 00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:34,479 Speaker 3: agreed to top line numbers we pass annual budgets in 83 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:37,120 Speaker 3: this country. I mean, I'm starting to look to Q 84 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 3: one of next year thinking about where we're going to 85 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:42,640 Speaker 3: be in March when we're working on the twenty twenty 86 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:45,160 Speaker 3: five budget. Will we have a budget for this year? 87 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 3: Are we going to put the American people through repeated shutdowns? 88 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:51,640 Speaker 3: Looking in the crystal ball. I was just on the 89 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 3: floor of the House talking with colleagues, and we're I've 90 00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:57,160 Speaker 3: almost never seen anything like this. We're all looking at 91 00:04:57,200 --> 00:05:00,839 Speaker 3: each other with blank open eyes, wondering what's going to happen, 92 00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:04,520 Speaker 3: wondering when the Republicans are going to come to the table. So, yes, 93 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:08,159 Speaker 3: you're right, we passed a deal in August. Would it 94 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:11,719 Speaker 3: pass today? It seems that the extreme few who have 95 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 3: now taken the Republican Party and therefore the country and 96 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:19,320 Speaker 3: our Congress and somewhat our country hostage by their demands. 97 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 3: I don't know if they'd pass something like that again, 98 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:24,360 Speaker 3: And that's certainly why they're heading towards the government shutdown 99 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 3: right now. 100 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:28,159 Speaker 2: So the earth is shifting under our feet. Obviously, I 101 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:30,560 Speaker 2: want to ask you about the UIW congresswoman, but I'm 102 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 2: curious about two things. What you make of this motion 103 00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:35,400 Speaker 2: to vacate. We keep hearing about if there is a 104 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:37,680 Speaker 2: vote on a cr apparently Matt Gates will try to 105 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:41,600 Speaker 2: fire Kevin McCarthy. And are you hearing from moderate Republicans 106 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:43,760 Speaker 2: are you guys whispering in the halls about how you're 107 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:45,719 Speaker 2: going to save this Well. 108 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 3: I'm going into a meeting with the problem Solver's Caucus 109 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:51,880 Speaker 3: later this afternoon. I'm not sure if that is going 110 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 3: to be on the dock at Our meetings are private, 111 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:57,400 Speaker 3: but that is a bipartisan group. And frankly, what I've 112 00:05:57,400 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 3: been hearing around motion of akate right now are rumors. 113 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:05,080 Speaker 3: I was in the middle of working last night when 114 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 3: a Washington Post story broke about potentially replacing Speaker McCarthy 115 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 3: with Tom Emmer. That hasn't necessarily been verified. Mister Emmer 116 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:18,039 Speaker 3: rejected those concerns. I think these rabble rousers are just 117 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 3: trying to do anything to rest control, and maybe those 118 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 3: holding the line see that as not necessarily the best 119 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 3: path forward because they'll just be right back where they started. 120 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:31,719 Speaker 3: But one thing is clear. Trust has been broken. Trust 121 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 3: has been broken with mister McCarthy and the Democratic Caucus 122 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:38,839 Speaker 3: and apparently the White House, and now it seems like 123 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 3: within his own conference, which is why we are in 124 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:44,600 Speaker 3: this place. The American people are sick of manufactured crisis. 125 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:47,359 Speaker 3: I'm sick and tired of this as well. We don't 126 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 3: need to be in this place. We were passing a 127 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:52,200 Speaker 3: Chips bill last year, we were doing infrastructure at the 128 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 3: beginning of the term. We were lowering the costs of 129 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 3: prescription drugs. You know, the American people need a government 130 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 3: that's going to work for them. And yes, we need 131 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:04,159 Speaker 3: to tackle long term realities around our debt and our deficit, 132 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:05,920 Speaker 3: but this is not the way to do it. We've 133 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:08,240 Speaker 3: been doing this for ten years and it just doesn't 134 00:07:08,240 --> 00:07:08,560 Speaker 3: cut it. 135 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 2: We're talking with Congressman French Hill. A bit later on 136 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 2: the Republican from Arkansas reportedly had some choice words. I 137 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 2: believe it was an F word for the aforementioned Matt 138 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 2: Gates congresswoman. Does that kind of symbolize the state of 139 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 2: the Republican conference in the House? 140 00:07:27,200 --> 00:07:30,040 Speaker 3: Well, I wasn't in that meeting, but I will say 141 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:34,760 Speaker 3: I have the utmost respect for mister Hill. We actually 142 00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:37,240 Speaker 3: both serve as co chairs of the Task Force on 143 00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 3: American hostages and Americans wrongfully detained abroad. I've worked with 144 00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 3: him very closely on my constituent, Paul Wheeland, the longest 145 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 3: detained American in Russia. And I think when someone like 146 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:52,239 Speaker 3: french Hill is reportedly losing their temper, you know something's 147 00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:55,720 Speaker 3: not going right in the Republican Conference. And we're hoping 148 00:07:55,760 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 3: coolier heads prevail. We're hoping that these extremists, we don't 149 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 3: really know what's motivating their concerns. Right now, we'll put 150 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:07,720 Speaker 3: the country first, put good governance first, put stability first. 151 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 4: We didn't. 152 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 3: We just had a COVID nineteen disruption just a few 153 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 3: short years ago that we just made our way out of. 154 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:16,160 Speaker 3: We've got a lot of good things going right now. 155 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 3: Let's not manufacture this type of scenario. 156 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:22,200 Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you what. We'll relay what you said 157 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:24,760 Speaker 2: to Congressman Friendshil when he joins us on Balance of 158 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:28,800 Speaker 2: Power on Bloomberg TV at five o'clock later today. Congresswoman, 159 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 2: we've got big news from Detroit. This would be our 160 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:34,400 Speaker 2: lead story on any other day without the government shutting down. 161 00:08:34,440 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 2: It looks like Ford is back on the naughty lists. 162 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 2: The UAW is stepping up strikes against GM and FORD 163 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:44,760 Speaker 2: not stillantis this time, But now that we've crossed another deadline, 164 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 2: are we in any better place than we were a 165 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 2: week ago. 166 00:08:48,679 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 3: I continue to be hopeful that these negotiations will play 167 00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:56,400 Speaker 3: out as the workers are intending them to for their 168 00:08:57,320 --> 00:09:01,600 Speaker 3: stronger wages, for some of the paybacks from the concessions 169 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:05,640 Speaker 3: that they made fourteen years ago. And I'm not in 170 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:09,160 Speaker 3: the deal making room. I know that this is painful. 171 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 3: It's tough for the workers who are striking. We really 172 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 3: can't forget that, and hearing the stories on the picket line, 173 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 3: I'll tell you when I was last home in Michigan, 174 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:22,480 Speaker 3: a thirty eight year UAW employee, he told me, he said, 175 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 3: I wish I could afford the GM silverado that just 176 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:31,439 Speaker 3: drove by our picket line. And that's just not their reality. 177 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:34,320 Speaker 3: And it's interesting. I had the Detroit Regional Chamber in 178 00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:39,080 Speaker 3: my office today and they expressed, similarly to almost everyone 179 00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:42,080 Speaker 3: who's talking around this strike right now locally in Detroit, 180 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:46,200 Speaker 3: the workers deserve a race. The workers deserve a race. 181 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 3: It's obviously not that simple as just waving a magic 182 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:52,240 Speaker 3: wand there's a lot of back and forth. It does seem, 183 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 3: according to some of the Detroit headlines right now, that 184 00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:58,200 Speaker 3: we're not in that immediate place to sign the deal. 185 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:01,080 Speaker 3: We know these strikes are continuing. These ones that have 186 00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:04,200 Speaker 3: been announced today are quite large, and frankly, I wish 187 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:06,480 Speaker 3: I was home in Detroit to be with the workers, 188 00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:10,720 Speaker 3: to be talking with the suppliers and negotiating that deal 189 00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:12,359 Speaker 3: as best as I can as a lawmaker. 190 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:15,960 Speaker 2: Well, I see, congress women that you've reintroduced a bill 191 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:20,720 Speaker 2: to protect union workers in federal vehicle contracts. The UA 192 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:24,640 Speaker 2: DOUBD Job Protection Acts would require federal contract bidders to 193 00:10:24,679 --> 00:10:29,319 Speaker 2: disclose all plant locations, interestingly where vehicles will be made, 194 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:32,040 Speaker 2: along with some other details. To what extent are the 195 00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 2: Big Three exposed to federal contracts. 196 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:38,839 Speaker 3: They are somewhat. This law came or this bill, I 197 00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:42,240 Speaker 3: wish it was law. Yet this bill came about because 198 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:48,160 Speaker 3: of the contract awarded to Oshkosh Defense Industries around the 199 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:51,880 Speaker 3: Postal Service truck vehicles. They were supposed to be made 200 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:56,560 Speaker 3: with union labor. Contract gets awarded. Midway through they decide, well, 201 00:10:56,600 --> 00:10:58,400 Speaker 3: we don't have the capacity here, so we're going to 202 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 3: move this to a non union and we certainly could 203 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 3: see something like this pertain to the Big Three, and 204 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 3: that would actually be a great date because they're unionized shops. 205 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:09,520 Speaker 3: I'm really proud of this piece of legislation. I've got 206 00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 3: a lot of co sponsors. It's something we should get done. 207 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 3: And frankly, it's very frustrating as a lawmaker when we 208 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 3: pass these laws and then they go to be implemented. 209 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:24,079 Speaker 3: Around infrastructure, around the Inflation Reduction Act, We've got union provisions, 210 00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:26,760 Speaker 3: prevailing wage provisions in there, and then somehow they get 211 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:31,119 Speaker 3: cut out as the deals go forward. And I do oversight, 212 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:33,160 Speaker 3: but we've got to take it a step further, which 213 00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:34,840 Speaker 3: is why I've introduced this legislation. 214 00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:38,080 Speaker 2: I have to ask you while you're with US Congresswoman, 215 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 2: I didn't think we'd be speaking this long with I 216 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 2: know you're looming votes, but we've lost Dianne Feinstein. We 217 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 2: learned this morning that the Senator has passed at ninety 218 00:11:48,640 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 2: the longest serving female US senator, who of course inspired 219 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 2: many women and men for that matter, to enter politics. 220 00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:00,360 Speaker 2: And I wonder if you have any reflections on this 221 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:01,040 Speaker 2: news today. 222 00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, well, thank you for the chance to reflect on 223 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:08,040 Speaker 3: the line of the Senate. Diane Feinstein. She was such 224 00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:11,959 Speaker 3: a champion for gun safety. She led the assault weapons ban, 225 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 3: and she blazed the path for so many women and 226 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:19,040 Speaker 3: her family, her legacy, it's in my thoughts. We were 227 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:21,720 Speaker 3: just on the floor of the House. Speaker McCarthy was 228 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:26,160 Speaker 3: in the chair. Nancy Pelosi, our Speaker emeritus, was behind 229 00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:29,319 Speaker 3: the podium, and we had a moment of silence for 230 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 3: Senator Feinstein. Obviously a tough time for her family and 231 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:37,040 Speaker 3: a real loss for the Senate at this time. 232 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, I appreciate your weighing in on that. Congresswoman, thanks 233 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:43,679 Speaker 2: for joining. It sounds like you're a no vote on 234 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:46,000 Speaker 2: the CR Did I get that right before you leave us? 235 00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 3: I don't plan to vote for this bill that would 236 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 3: get critical funding for so many Americans and programs that 237 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 3: we rely on, and frankly, something our president wouldn't sign 238 00:12:57,480 --> 00:12:59,839 Speaker 3: and wouldn't make it through the Senate. We need a 239 00:12:59,880 --> 00:13:02,840 Speaker 3: real let's be mature, let's get that done. 240 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:05,160 Speaker 2: I know it's a busy day on the ROWTNA, thanks 241 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 2: for joining Congresswoman Haley Stevens, the Democrat from Michigan here 242 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Where 243 00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:13,199 Speaker 2: it's going to be a working weekend. Hey maybe I'll 244 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:16,720 Speaker 2: talk to you Sunday night. Don't make plans for that. 245 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:20,599 Speaker 2: As we bring our panel in now, Genie Shanzano joins 246 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:25,000 Speaker 2: Democratic analyst and Bloomberg Politics contributor, and Lisa Camusa Miller 247 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:28,079 Speaker 2: is here as well. What a perfect panel to have today, 248 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:31,520 Speaker 2: partner at RESET Public Affairs, former RNC communications director. We're 249 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:33,720 Speaker 2: going to try to get to both sides of this, 250 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:38,200 Speaker 2: and we've got a lot to talk about here. Jeanie. 251 00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:41,600 Speaker 2: I can't imagine what's going through your mind right now, 252 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:43,960 Speaker 2: because we've talked about this something like every day for 253 00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:48,079 Speaker 2: the last month. We could have avoided this if serious 254 00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:49,680 Speaker 2: people were at the table, couldn't we. 255 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:54,439 Speaker 5: That's right, And your conversation with Representative Stevens, I mean, 256 00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 5: she is just so clear and she is absolutely one 257 00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:03,000 Speaker 5: thousand percent right. This is a max manufactured, man made crisis. 258 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:05,480 Speaker 5: It doesn't have to be this way, and it is 259 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:10,360 Speaker 5: being manufactured by a small number of Republicans to the 260 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:14,079 Speaker 5: detriment of all of us. So it is not surprising 261 00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:17,040 Speaker 5: from one perspective. We knew it was coming, but it 262 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:19,480 Speaker 5: is shocking that they would push us to this degree. 263 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:22,640 Speaker 5: And also shocking that Kevin McCarthy doesn't call their bluff 264 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:24,840 Speaker 5: and say fire me. I'm going to do the work 265 00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 5: of the American people, all right, you want to do 266 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:29,680 Speaker 5: He hasn't done that yet. That's shocking. 267 00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:31,120 Speaker 1: All right. 268 00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 2: We'll add the voice of Lisa Camuso Miller coming up 269 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:35,600 Speaker 2: as well, because you know, look, if they vote on 270 00:14:35,640 --> 00:14:38,640 Speaker 2: this cr that Haley Stevens is about to vote no on, 271 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:42,760 Speaker 2: he gets fired. Right, That's what Matt Gates said. Let's 272 00:14:42,800 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 2: see if we call any bluffs today. Our panels up next, 273 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:50,840 Speaker 2: Genie and Lisa. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. This is Bloomberg. 274 00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:56,560 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 275 00:14:56,560 --> 00:15:00,760 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg, the tune 276 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 1: in alf, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app. 277 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:06,840 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 278 00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:11,320 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 279 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:16,480 Speaker 2: As we reassemble our panel with regular order in mind here, 280 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 2: Jeanie Shanzano is with us along with Lisa Camussa Miller, 281 00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 2: who was at one time the communications director for the RNC. 282 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 2: She's now partner at Reset Public Affairs spend time in 283 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:30,440 Speaker 2: a Republican Speaker's office and knows exactly the conversation that's 284 00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 2: taking place. Are you chuckling right now, Lisa, over this 285 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:36,880 Speaker 2: victory lap on three spending bills or are you too depressed? 286 00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:41,520 Speaker 6: Well, you know, Joe, this is hard to it's hard 287 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:44,120 Speaker 6: to laugh about because it really is the livelihood of 288 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 6: so many American people. I mean, we think about government shutdown, 289 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 6: it doesn't just affect the government workers. I mean it 290 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 6: expands out to so many other people. But look, I 291 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:55,960 Speaker 6: think I think Speaker McCarthy is the right man for 292 00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 6: the job. He is absolutely trying to balance all of 293 00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 6: these different agendas, all of these different personalities, and he's 294 00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:05,760 Speaker 6: making strides. He continues to punch above his weight. He 295 00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:09,960 Speaker 6: continues to surprise people. And all of these other I mean, 296 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:13,600 Speaker 6: to Representative Stephen's point, all of these other mischief makers 297 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 6: this small corner of the House Republican Conference, they are 298 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:23,080 Speaker 6: as powerful today as they will ever be because they 299 00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:25,760 Speaker 6: continue to threaten the Speaker. But the truth of it 300 00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:27,800 Speaker 6: is that there is no candidate that they could get 301 00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 6: across the line. There is no speaker that they could 302 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:31,760 Speaker 6: put in place, and there is no one else that 303 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:34,360 Speaker 6: could do the job better than Kevin McCarthy. So no, 304 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 6: I don't think that this is our best demonstration of 305 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:41,400 Speaker 6: American politics, it's at all. But I do think that 306 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 6: that a lot of the hyperbolean nonsense that's going on 307 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:47,120 Speaker 6: in the fringes about the speaker himself is really super unfair. 308 00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:50,240 Speaker 2: You know, he was asked about this directly in that 309 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 2: same conversation with reporters about the motion to vacate. I'm curious, though, 310 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:57,560 Speaker 2: and I'll play you what he said, Lisa. How many 311 00:16:57,560 --> 00:16:59,640 Speaker 2: people are we talking about here? I mean, the we're 312 00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:02,800 Speaker 2: general headlines all over the world. Is it Matt Gates? 313 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:04,880 Speaker 2: Is it we know it's Mack Gates? Is it two 314 00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:08,720 Speaker 2: other people? Is it four people? I mean, what you 315 00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:11,160 Speaker 2: could count on a hand, correct, the number of lawmakers 316 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:11,840 Speaker 2: holding this up? 317 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:15,119 Speaker 6: Yes, that's correct. I mean, on one hand, I think 318 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,200 Speaker 6: and I think that there's probably contours of a variety 319 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:20,479 Speaker 6: of folks in the Freedom Caucus that are agitating in 320 00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 6: one direction or another. But the truth of it is 321 00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 6: is that the mastermind behind all of this mischief is 322 00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:27,960 Speaker 6: mac Gates, and it's because he has a personal vendetta 323 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:31,080 Speaker 6: against the speaker from everything I see, so this alone, 324 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:34,560 Speaker 6: it's petty, it's childish, it's honestly, it's just it's it's 325 00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 6: bad government and it really needs to stop. 326 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:40,919 Speaker 2: Well, it came up as I mentioned today, Genie, I 327 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:43,760 Speaker 2: don't know if you think of Matt Gates as a mastermind. 328 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 2: I know Lisa didn't mean it that way. But here's 329 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:49,080 Speaker 2: Kevin McCarthy's answer to you know, you're reaching out to 330 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 2: members to try to see if you can survive emotion 331 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 2: to vacate. I've never asked anybody that question on I 332 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:58,199 Speaker 2: don't intend to any other. Best thing to do is 333 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:02,160 Speaker 2: just leave you here, just lead, Jeanie. I suspect there's 334 00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:03,920 Speaker 2: some wisdom there. But is it going to work? 335 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:08,600 Speaker 4: Well, you know, God willing for all of us, it works. 336 00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:11,600 Speaker 5: But we are now, you know, just several hours away 337 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:13,679 Speaker 5: from a really dramatic shutdown. 338 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:16,040 Speaker 4: We will have two million people in the. 339 00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:19,200 Speaker 5: Armed forces and law enforcement who will work and not 340 00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:22,320 Speaker 5: get paid. But you know who will get paid, Kevin McCarthy, 341 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:26,600 Speaker 5: Matt Gates, every member of Congress, the President, right, because 342 00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:30,960 Speaker 5: they get paid under the constitution. So we do need leadership. 343 00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:33,919 Speaker 5: But this is not the kind and the reality is 344 00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:38,280 Speaker 5: this is a result of a deal Kevin McCarthy made 345 00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:41,080 Speaker 5: to have his job. We still don't know what was 346 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 5: in most of that deal because it's apparently not written down, 347 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:45,880 Speaker 5: and when reporters go on the hell and ask him, 348 00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:46,639 Speaker 5: he won't say. 349 00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:47,439 Speaker 7: So. 350 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:49,440 Speaker 5: We don't know a lot of what's in that deal. 351 00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:52,919 Speaker 5: But he made the deal to get this job. So 352 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:55,719 Speaker 5: I don't think this is about Matt Gates, and I 353 00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 5: don't see Matt Gates as a mastermind or any of 354 00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:02,960 Speaker 5: those other folks. This is about Kevin McCarthy. He does 355 00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:06,280 Speaker 5: he's right have to lead, But you cannot lead if 356 00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:08,840 Speaker 5: you start your job with your hand tied behind your 357 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:13,840 Speaker 5: back promising that you will be beholden to the far 358 00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:17,240 Speaker 5: right or far left, or any single member of the caucus. 359 00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:20,360 Speaker 5: That's not the way leadership work. He did show leadership 360 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:22,840 Speaker 5: when it came to default. He walked away from that 361 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,439 Speaker 5: deal to save his job. He has to stand up 362 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:28,560 Speaker 5: and say, fire me, I'm going to lead for the 363 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:29,600 Speaker 5: American people. 364 00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:30,720 Speaker 4: Fire me, Matt. 365 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:33,440 Speaker 5: Let Matt Gates move ahead with the motion and see 366 00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:34,440 Speaker 5: where the chips fall. 367 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:35,880 Speaker 4: But he's not doing that. 368 00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 5: He's doing everything he can to save his job and 369 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:41,479 Speaker 5: that's why we are all in this position, so he 370 00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:42,400 Speaker 5: can save his job. 371 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:46,159 Speaker 2: Well, I know that you see this a little bit 372 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:49,560 Speaker 2: differently here, Lisa. If the motion to vacate, actually, if 373 00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:54,080 Speaker 2: Matt Gates goes there, what happens next. Kevin McCarthy's got 374 00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:56,000 Speaker 2: to be talking to the rank and file about this now, 375 00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:57,120 Speaker 2: and Democrats too. 376 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,440 Speaker 6: I think that that's probably Matt Gates's last best move. 377 00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:04,080 Speaker 6: I mean, I think that's the last time that he 378 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:07,240 Speaker 6: has any power at all in the conference. You know, 379 00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:09,400 Speaker 6: the motion to vacate only takes you know, it takes 380 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:12,640 Speaker 6: a small uh, it takes one vote, right, But then 381 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:16,800 Speaker 6: we watched how the speaker's race went. We saw fifteen 382 00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 6: votes right, and that was for Kevin McCarthy, who had 383 00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:23,919 Speaker 6: a large swath of support in the conference already. So 384 00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:27,400 Speaker 6: to me, this seems like another It seems it's Groundhog 385 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:29,600 Speaker 6: Day over and over again. This just happens to be 386 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 6: the one that is the most public and most recent. 387 00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:34,080 Speaker 6: But I remember a time with Louis Gohmert and other 388 00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:36,800 Speaker 6: members in the House were yelling and screaming about the 389 00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 6: possibility of challenging whoever the front runner was, and they 390 00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:42,639 Speaker 6: could never get the votes, Joe, And so this is 391 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:47,200 Speaker 6: just noise, its distraction, and look to the Congressman's point earlier, 392 00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:49,360 Speaker 6: it's childish and it's unnecessary. 393 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:52,159 Speaker 2: Okay, So you don't think it would succeed. The Washington 394 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 2: Post is out with a screamer this morning saying Tom 395 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:57,600 Speaker 2: Emmers being teed up as as the next speaker of 396 00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:01,399 Speaker 2: the House that members want to can tingency plan in 397 00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:05,000 Speaker 2: case Kevin McCarthy gets fired. Lisa clearly doesn't buy it. 398 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:05,959 Speaker 2: How about Eugenie. 399 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:10,000 Speaker 5: You know, I don't see any sign that Tom Emmer 400 00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:13,760 Speaker 5: wants this job. Who on earth with any sense would 401 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,680 Speaker 5: want this job at this point, As the representative said, 402 00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:19,439 Speaker 5: and you have talked about many times, Joe, this is 403 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:22,399 Speaker 5: not just Kevin McCarthy. It is a Republican caucus that 404 00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:27,080 Speaker 5: is ungovernable. Just ask Ryan, just ask Bayner. If he falls, 405 00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 5: Kevin McCarthy will be the third Republican speaker in the 406 00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 5: last several years to fall because of a caucus that 407 00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:36,840 Speaker 5: is ungovernable. So I don't think Tom Emmer would want 408 00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:38,919 Speaker 5: this job. But if he took it, is he some 409 00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:41,320 Speaker 5: kind of magician who would make this all work? I 410 00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:44,400 Speaker 5: don't see how that could happen. And if Kevin McCarthy 411 00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,440 Speaker 5: does work with Democrats to keep the government open or 412 00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:49,640 Speaker 5: to keep his job, he's going to have a heck 413 00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:51,960 Speaker 5: of a time trying to do anything else while he 414 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:55,159 Speaker 5: remained Speaker. It is a huge conundrum for him and 415 00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,360 Speaker 5: anybody else who tries to lead this caucus at this point. 416 00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:04,119 Speaker 2: Lisa Cavusa, you worked in the Speaker's office, in Dennis 417 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:08,120 Speaker 2: Hastert's office. What's going on behind closed doors right now? 418 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 6: That's the longest days of their lives, Joe. These people 419 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:18,000 Speaker 6: are working NonStop, working constantly to find ways to get 420 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:23,720 Speaker 6: members to come across the line to support various negotiations 421 00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 6: as they're coming through it is. It's cutthroat, it's emotional, 422 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 6: they're exhausted, and it's honestly, I'm tired of just thinking 423 00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:34,800 Speaker 6: about how much work is going on right now, between 424 00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:40,040 Speaker 6: the staff, the leadership, the policy teams, the whip team. 425 00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:43,359 Speaker 6: There's so many people involved in this process, and no 426 00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:44,160 Speaker 6: one is sleeping. 427 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:45,000 Speaker 1: It is. 428 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:48,240 Speaker 6: They're working their butts off, for one and they're doing 429 00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:50,200 Speaker 6: everything they can to try to get this over the line. 430 00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:52,159 Speaker 6: That's apparent to me, and that's a parent from the 431 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:56,080 Speaker 6: disposition the speaker has had with every time he comes 432 00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:58,080 Speaker 6: to the sticks talks to reporters, is that they are 433 00:22:58,119 --> 00:22:59,880 Speaker 6: working as hard as they get to get this right. 434 00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:03,280 Speaker 6: But I just I think that it's not We're not 435 00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:06,040 Speaker 6: there and we're not going to get there by twelve 436 00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,720 Speaker 6: midnight on Saturday night and Sunday morning. 437 00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:12,080 Speaker 2: Wow, she's having flashbacks live on the air here. I'm 438 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:14,000 Speaker 2: feeling for you, Lisa. I mean to pull you back 439 00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:16,880 Speaker 2: into all of that. But yeah, the cots are coming 440 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,359 Speaker 2: out right, the takeout food, the wine bottles are coming in. 441 00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:23,280 Speaker 2: This is This is a working weekend in Washington, and 442 00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:24,960 Speaker 2: we'll keep you posted on all of this as we 443 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:26,720 Speaker 2: get closer to the deadline. But it looks like this 444 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:30,000 Speaker 2: is done. Lisa Camuso, Miller and Genie Shanzano back with 445 00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 2: more of our panel. Next. 446 00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,840 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 447 00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:43,000 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 448 00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:46,200 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App. We're listening on 449 00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:48,240 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcast. 450 00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:53,440 Speaker 2: So Ford is back on the naughty list. The UAW 451 00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:59,439 Speaker 2: has been hearing on Bloomberg is expanding its historic strike 452 00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:01,880 Speaker 2: against all three of the Big three, this time targeting 453 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,359 Speaker 2: GM and Ford. Remember a week ago at this time, 454 00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,840 Speaker 2: they held off on Ford because progress was being made. 455 00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:10,919 Speaker 2: This week it's Stillantis. They're holding back on Stalantis. And 456 00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:13,920 Speaker 2: we heard about this from Seawn Faine a bit earlier. 457 00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:16,720 Speaker 2: Of course, the head of the United Auto Workers. 458 00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,600 Speaker 8: What we went at the bargaining table depends on the 459 00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:23,320 Speaker 8: power we build on the job. It's time to use 460 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:27,480 Speaker 8: that power. That's why I'm calling on an additional seven 461 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:31,200 Speaker 8: thousand members across Ford and GM to go on strike 462 00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:34,800 Speaker 8: starting at noon Eastern today. 463 00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:38,440 Speaker 2: Newly targeted facility as a FORD factory in Chicago produces 464 00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:42,320 Speaker 2: the Explorer and a GM plant in Lansing, Michigan, manufactures 465 00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:47,440 Speaker 2: the Chevy Traverse. According to Sean Fain, they had planned 466 00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:50,399 Speaker 2: to strike at Stilantis, but something obviously happened here. They've 467 00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:54,040 Speaker 2: been making some progress. Let's bring our panel in for 468 00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:56,920 Speaker 2: more on this. Genie Shanze No, Lisa Camuso Miller. It's 469 00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:58,760 Speaker 2: just one of the stories they're developing. I'm trying to 470 00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:01,000 Speaker 2: keep up with the news here to get both of 471 00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:05,120 Speaker 2: your takes on them. Jeanie, how's this hit you now? 472 00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 2: It doesn't sound like much of anything has changed in 473 00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:10,800 Speaker 2: the last week. Does this just keep escalating? 474 00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:14,359 Speaker 5: You know, I think for the time we were seeing 475 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:16,960 Speaker 5: some light at the end of the tunnel. That seems 476 00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:20,120 Speaker 5: to maybe have subsided a bit, unfortunately. But I do 477 00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:23,000 Speaker 5: think it was good news that the union was talking 478 00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:26,440 Speaker 5: about a thirty as opposed to forty percent pay increase. 479 00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:28,760 Speaker 4: That's the right direction for them to go. 480 00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:31,320 Speaker 5: And you know, we all knew this was going to 481 00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:34,080 Speaker 5: be a long strike, and I think we are set 482 00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:36,560 Speaker 5: up for that at this point. And let's not forget 483 00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,360 Speaker 5: you know, we've talked about the fact that the writers 484 00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:42,439 Speaker 5: out in Hollywood they have reached an agreement apparently, but 485 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:45,119 Speaker 5: we are looking at a healthcare strike now in the 486 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:48,600 Speaker 5: next few days, next week potentially. So the strikes and 487 00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:53,080 Speaker 5: the labor uprising across the country continues, and it can 488 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:56,680 Speaker 5: be really detrimental to the economy. But is just an 489 00:25:56,720 --> 00:26:00,159 Speaker 5: indication as the strike summer now becomes strike fall, and 490 00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:02,480 Speaker 5: that doesn't seem to be subsiding at all. 491 00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:06,160 Speaker 2: Boy, that's for sure, Lisa. We saw both Joe Biden 492 00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:10,040 Speaker 2: and Donald Trump speaking to union workers, I guess, both 493 00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:12,320 Speaker 2: in their own ways this week. Joe Biden, though, was 494 00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,240 Speaker 2: on the picket line. At what point does this become 495 00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:16,680 Speaker 2: a liability politically for him or is it already? 496 00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 6: I think it's already, Joe. I mean, this is a 497 00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:24,479 Speaker 6: president who has been a friend of unions for a 498 00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:27,080 Speaker 6: long time, for as long as he's been in public office, 499 00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:29,560 Speaker 6: and he is proud of that, and that's why he 500 00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:31,480 Speaker 6: went That's why he went to the picket line. That's 501 00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,880 Speaker 6: why he went to do what he could to be helpful. Unfortunately, though, 502 00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:36,800 Speaker 6: if you're in the White House, you are going to 503 00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,240 Speaker 6: bear the burden of any of these bad economic news. 504 00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:42,560 Speaker 6: And Jeanie's point is right on. This is going to 505 00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 6: have far reaching impacts and it's happening all across the 506 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:48,600 Speaker 6: labor market, and you know what, and good for them 507 00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:52,399 Speaker 6: that they're speaking up and speaking out and getting noticed 508 00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:55,280 Speaker 6: and getting the workers what they deserve. But also too, 509 00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:59,119 Speaker 6: the impact as we talk about government shut down, this is, 510 00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:02,040 Speaker 6: all of this is going to have a tremendous impact 511 00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:05,520 Speaker 6: on the economy, and unfortunately for the president, he's going 512 00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:06,679 Speaker 6: to bear the burden of that. 513 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:12,240 Speaker 2: We are watching the House floor. I want to mention 514 00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:15,040 Speaker 2: as we stand by for a final vote here on 515 00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:19,359 Speaker 2: a continuing resolution, it appears enough Republicans have already voted 516 00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:21,399 Speaker 2: no to sink this. It's not going to happen. That 517 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:25,240 Speaker 2: basically guarantees here. Although you knew that when you woke 518 00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:27,719 Speaker 2: up at the government, we'll shut down tomorrow at midnight. 519 00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:31,120 Speaker 2: Geenie Shanzeno and Lisa Camuso Miller are with us as 520 00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:33,879 Speaker 2: we reflect on another top story today. We can just 521 00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:37,400 Speaker 2: keep on going here. Dianne Feinstein has died, of course, 522 00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:43,600 Speaker 2: the longest serving female Senator, now passing it ninety and 523 00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:47,359 Speaker 2: there are a lot of questions about what happens next. 524 00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:49,520 Speaker 2: But I'd love to hear from both of you on 525 00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:54,320 Speaker 2: her legacy. Nancy Pelosi spoke from the House floor a 526 00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:57,560 Speaker 2: very emotional address as she asked for unanimous consent and 527 00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:02,240 Speaker 2: gathered the entire California delegation in the well of the chamber. 528 00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:04,520 Speaker 2: A taste of what she had to say. 529 00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:09,480 Speaker 9: Thank you, mister Speaker, for the purpose of speaking with 530 00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:14,440 Speaker 9: great sadness and emotion about the loss of our great senator, 531 00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:19,800 Speaker 9: our senior senator from California, Senator Dianne Feinstein. I do 532 00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:23,320 Speaker 9: so as I say personally as a friend, neighbor, and 533 00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:24,800 Speaker 9: fellow San Franciscan. 534 00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:28,879 Speaker 2: She won her seat, of course, in the Year of 535 00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:33,159 Speaker 2: the Woman nineteen ninety two, as it produced four new 536 00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:36,400 Speaker 2: female Senators, tripling the number of women in the Upper 537 00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 2: Chamber to six. This is a tough day for a 538 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:44,640 Speaker 2: lot of Democrats, obviously, Nancy Pelosi emotional Genie, what's going 539 00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:45,200 Speaker 2: through your mind? 540 00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:48,280 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, and I would say she had an 541 00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:51,080 Speaker 5: awful lot of friends across the aisle as well, and 542 00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:53,440 Speaker 5: so it is a very tough day. I think the 543 00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:55,680 Speaker 5: word you hear most often attached to her as a 544 00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:59,520 Speaker 5: trail blazer. Rightly, so she really was. As you mentioned, 545 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:03,080 Speaker 5: teen ninety four, four women elected to the Senate, and 546 00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:05,400 Speaker 5: we called it the Year of the Woman. You know, 547 00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:08,520 Speaker 5: the first time we saw two women representing our largest 548 00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:12,040 Speaker 5: state of California, and she did so for so long. 549 00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:15,320 Speaker 5: I think the thing I'll remember most about Diane Feinstein 550 00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:19,080 Speaker 5: is her ability to reach across the aisle. She was 551 00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:21,600 Speaker 5: a trail blazer, to use that word again, as it 552 00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:25,400 Speaker 5: pertained to issues that still haunt us today, like gun control. 553 00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:28,840 Speaker 5: She also was willing to speak truth to power, even 554 00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,720 Speaker 5: when it was not in the interest of her own party. 555 00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:34,960 Speaker 5: We never forget that. After nine to eleven, she releases 556 00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:38,840 Speaker 5: the report about the treatment of detainees, much to the 557 00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:41,080 Speaker 5: dismay of many Democrats. 558 00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:43,680 Speaker 4: So she's a real, real sort. 559 00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:47,000 Speaker 5: Of example for us today at this really partisan time 560 00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:51,560 Speaker 5: of somebody who governed herself and reached across the aisle 561 00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:52,360 Speaker 5: and worked with. 562 00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,360 Speaker 4: People from the other party. And of course she. 563 00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:58,480 Speaker 5: Will be sorely miss, as Representative Haley told you Stevens 564 00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:02,040 Speaker 5: Rather and as we just heard from Nancy Pelosi. 565 00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:07,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, Lisa Genie's right. She was known for her tussles 566 00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:10,560 Speaker 2: with the intelligence community, with gun makers. How should we 567 00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:11,800 Speaker 2: remember Diane. 568 00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:18,240 Speaker 6: Feinstein unapologetically American and just loyal and patriotic, and she 569 00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:21,760 Speaker 6: was a leader and a hero for so many. So 570 00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:25,200 Speaker 6: set aside all politics. What I loved about the Senator 571 00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:27,760 Speaker 6: is that she really did speak to power. I mean, 572 00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:31,840 Speaker 6: she really did stand up to those regardless of politics, 573 00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:35,000 Speaker 6: regardless of party, and did the right thing. And that's 574 00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:37,320 Speaker 6: the way she will be remembered. She'll be remembered for. 575 00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:38,840 Speaker 2: All of the. 576 00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:43,000 Speaker 6: All of the historic marks that she hit, you know, 577 00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:47,840 Speaker 6: from being the first female mayor of San Francisco to 578 00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:51,520 Speaker 6: being you know, the elected in the year of the 579 00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:54,960 Speaker 6: Woman ninety two. I mean just yeah, a big loss 580 00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:57,160 Speaker 6: for the Senate, a big loss for the Senate and 581 00:30:57,200 --> 00:30:58,440 Speaker 6: a big loss for the country. 582 00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:05,320 Speaker 2: Veteran in the Senate as well as we consider the 583 00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:08,719 Speaker 2: next generation here. I appreciate the comments from both Lisa 584 00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:09,320 Speaker 2: and Jeannie. 585 00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:14,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 586 00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:17,800 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 587 00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:20,920 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on 588 00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:23,000 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 589 00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:26,840 Speaker 2: We're joined now by the Vice President, Director of Economic 590 00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:30,320 Speaker 2: Studies Program at Brooking's former chief economist Treasury Department. He 591 00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:35,040 Speaker 2: was also a former Assistant Treasury Secretary in the Biden deministration, 592 00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:37,240 Speaker 2: and he's all ours at the moment. Bennett's great to 593 00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:40,000 Speaker 2: see you as we try to understand what's actually going 594 00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:42,680 Speaker 2: on inside the Treasury right now. When it becomes clear 595 00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,200 Speaker 2: that a shutdown is happening, what are the next steps. 596 00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:50,200 Speaker 7: Well, the Treasury Department, like every other federal agency, has 597 00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:54,640 Speaker 7: put out contingency plans understanding that this might actually happen. 598 00:31:55,640 --> 00:32:00,280 Speaker 7: Much of Treasury operations will continue as normal, so at 599 00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:03,000 Speaker 7: least for the short term, so social curity recipients will 600 00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:06,440 Speaker 7: continue to receive their checks. Payments will generally continue to 601 00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:12,000 Speaker 7: be processed within Treasury. The big disruption in operations will 602 00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:16,840 Speaker 7: come from the IRS. So, for example, the IRS has 603 00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:20,680 Speaker 7: said that it may have to stop processing some tax transcripts. 604 00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:23,440 Speaker 7: So think about when you apply for a mortgage and 605 00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:27,720 Speaker 7: you get this tax transcript that might be interrupted. And 606 00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:31,240 Speaker 7: so roughly half of IRS employees will not report to work. 607 00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:34,600 Speaker 7: As my understanding and reading the contingency plan, on day 608 00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:35,880 Speaker 7: one of the shutdown. 609 00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:38,480 Speaker 2: We got a warning from Moody's. I'm sure you saw 610 00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:41,400 Speaker 2: that Ben just a couple of days ago, threatening to 611 00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:46,920 Speaker 2: join Fitch and S and P in removing our top 612 00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:50,960 Speaker 2: credit ratings. How likely is that to happen knowing that 613 00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:52,240 Speaker 2: we'll continue paying our debt. 614 00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:57,000 Speaker 7: Well, Fitch obviously felt comfortable doing it, and Fitch, if 615 00:32:57,040 --> 00:33:00,120 Speaker 7: you read the justification for the shutdown, what was feature 616 00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:03,960 Speaker 7: centrally in that was the inability for the US government 617 00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:07,440 Speaker 7: to continue doing its job. And so this just feels 618 00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:10,400 Speaker 7: like this massive unforced error. I mean, we have known 619 00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:13,880 Speaker 7: about the start of the fiscal year for literally years. 620 00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:16,680 Speaker 7: We've had a framework for this, going back to May 621 00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:20,959 Speaker 7: when you saw that bipartisan compromise coming out setting discretionary 622 00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:24,280 Speaker 7: spending levels. So this is not a surprise to appropriators. 623 00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:26,400 Speaker 7: It's not a surprise in Matt Gates. It's not a 624 00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:30,080 Speaker 7: surprise to the extremists in the House who are trying 625 00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:33,280 Speaker 7: to blow all of this up. So, you know, I 626 00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:36,120 Speaker 7: think that what we can expect moving forward is a 627 00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:38,880 Speaker 7: lot of displeasure, not just from American people, but also 628 00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:41,320 Speaker 7: from legislators who felt like they had a deal in place. 629 00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:42,720 Speaker 1: Yeah. 630 00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:45,480 Speaker 2: Well, I mean, look, if the downgrade is going to 631 00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:49,280 Speaker 2: be based on chaos and deficit spending, how about we 632 00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:52,360 Speaker 2: just rip off the band aid because neither we'll be 633 00:33:52,560 --> 00:33:54,400 Speaker 2: changing anytime soon, right. 634 00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:57,840 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, I think we need to focus on 635 00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:00,840 Speaker 7: the crisis which is directly in front of us, and 636 00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:03,320 Speaker 7: this is a government shutdown. One point I want to 637 00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:06,320 Speaker 7: make is that not all government shutdowns are created equally. 638 00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:08,799 Speaker 7: So you go back to nineteen ninety five, we had 639 00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:11,439 Speaker 7: that twenty one day shutdown, but that only impacted about 640 00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:14,840 Speaker 7: a quarter of discretionary spending and military was not included. 641 00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:16,880 Speaker 7: You go back to the shutdown that happened under the 642 00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:20,239 Speaker 7: Trump administration that lasted for thirty five days, only about 643 00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:23,719 Speaker 7: thirty three percent of government spending was impacted, and the 644 00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:27,800 Speaker 7: military was not included. We're talking about the whole suite 645 00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:31,400 Speaker 7: of appropriations bills here. One hundred percent of discretionary spending 646 00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:34,120 Speaker 7: is potentially on the table. So this shutdown can even 647 00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:35,640 Speaker 7: be worse than ones we've seen in the past. 648 00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,400 Speaker 2: I saw you in the Deal Book this morning, Ben, 649 00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:42,359 Speaker 2: and you were talking about the impact that this might 650 00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:47,360 Speaker 2: have UNFED officials' ability to manage inflation, to forecast, to 651 00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:50,560 Speaker 2: model around the economy, and you wrote, quote, it's like 652 00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:53,239 Speaker 2: a pilot trying to land a plane without knowing what 653 00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:57,839 Speaker 2: the runway looks like. That's where we are now, That's 654 00:34:57,880 --> 00:34:58,600 Speaker 2: where we are now. 655 00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:01,440 Speaker 7: And you know, the FED is another example of an 656 00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:04,880 Speaker 7: entity in the US economy that relies on the government 657 00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:08,960 Speaker 7: for either information or for processing or for providing services. 658 00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:12,040 Speaker 7: And so the FED is obviously in the middle of 659 00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:15,360 Speaker 7: a very difficult period when it comes to making decisions 660 00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:19,040 Speaker 7: around FOMC. And we may ask members of the FED 661 00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:22,640 Speaker 7: to make a decision about monetary policy without knowing what 662 00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:26,360 Speaker 7: the unemployment rate is, and that is just crazy. And 663 00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:29,640 Speaker 7: I'm just I'm not sure that these really extremist members 664 00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:32,480 Speaker 7: of the House are considering this as part of their 665 00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:34,680 Speaker 7: calculus when they're pulling all these stunts. 666 00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:39,120 Speaker 2: Well, I suppose not, but we should remind our viewers 667 00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:41,399 Speaker 2: and our listeners here Ben that we will not get 668 00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:45,240 Speaker 2: economic data until this is solved. That could be weeks. 669 00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:47,840 Speaker 2: The impact on the markets alone being in the darklight, 670 00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:49,040 Speaker 2: that could be significant. 671 00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:52,960 Speaker 7: Exactly, we have no idea how long this is going 672 00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:56,520 Speaker 7: to last for, and a lot of the economic disruption 673 00:35:57,000 --> 00:36:01,600 Speaker 7: intensifies over time. So you've probably heard that TSA screeners, 674 00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:05,680 Speaker 7: air traffic controllers will report to work. 675 00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:07,200 Speaker 2: On day one. That's true. 676 00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:09,520 Speaker 7: But look, these people all have bills to pay, and 677 00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:11,719 Speaker 7: if they're not being paid, they have to go make 678 00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:14,000 Speaker 7: the money somewhere else. And so when we've seen really 679 00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:18,279 Speaker 7: long government shutdowns in the past, is that you start 680 00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:22,839 Speaker 7: to see these increased rates of these workers calling in sick. Look, 681 00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:26,200 Speaker 7: our nation's domestic travel system is pretty central to the 682 00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:29,520 Speaker 7: US economy. And if it means you can't go through security, 683 00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:31,799 Speaker 7: if it means you can't safely travel on an airplane 684 00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:35,520 Speaker 7: because an air traffic controller isn't reporting to work, that's 685 00:36:35,560 --> 00:36:38,080 Speaker 7: a pretty steep economic cost. And I could give you 686 00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:41,880 Speaker 7: a dozen different examples about how this impacts the US economy, 687 00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:46,280 Speaker 7: But the point is is that the magnitude of the shock, 688 00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:49,320 Speaker 7: the intensity of the disruption increases over time. 689 00:36:50,640 --> 00:36:54,920 Speaker 2: Well, isn't that right? Is it possible? Maybe you can 690 00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:59,239 Speaker 2: bring us inside the Treasury Department here for a moment. Well, 691 00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:03,320 Speaker 2: they have their own estimates on economic data. Would commerce, 692 00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:05,600 Speaker 2: for instance, have its own Does the White House have 693 00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:08,719 Speaker 2: data that just simply won't be released publicly or those 694 00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:10,839 Speaker 2: numbers will not be available period. 695 00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:14,640 Speaker 7: Those numbers will not be available period. Now you've seen 696 00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:17,080 Speaker 7: some Fed officials say, look, we can go we can 697 00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:19,360 Speaker 7: turn to other sources of data. They can turn to 698 00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:21,919 Speaker 7: private sources of data to try to get a sense 699 00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:24,520 Speaker 7: of what's going on. But if I'm making if I'm 700 00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:27,480 Speaker 7: on the FOMC, or if I'm staffing someone on the FOMC, 701 00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:31,080 Speaker 7: I really want the best data possible so that person 702 00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:34,880 Speaker 7: can can make the best informed decision. There's nothing that 703 00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:39,839 Speaker 7: substitutes for a federal inflation report. There's nothing that substitutes 704 00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:45,319 Speaker 7: for the employment report. There's just that's too comprehensive, too 705 00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:49,239 Speaker 7: well established, and there's there's really no substitute for those 706 00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:50,040 Speaker 7: data sources. 707 00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:55,759 Speaker 2: Are we making phone calls to foreign debt holders? Is 708 00:37:55,800 --> 00:38:00,279 Speaker 2: their business? Are their transactions with overseas governments that are 709 00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:01,200 Speaker 2: impacted by this. 710 00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:04,839 Speaker 7: Not that I'm aware of. You know, I think that 711 00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:07,520 Speaker 7: the debt payments will continue to be made. This isn't 712 00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:11,120 Speaker 7: quite as severe or really anywhere near as severe as 713 00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:14,759 Speaker 7: the debt ceiling impass that we were dealing with back 714 00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:18,600 Speaker 7: in May of this year. That doesn't mean it's not costly. 715 00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:21,920 Speaker 7: So Goldman has an estimate that this will subtract about 716 00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:26,360 Speaker 7: zero point two percent off of growth. About three fourths 717 00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:28,960 Speaker 7: of that impact comes from federal employees not getting paid 718 00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:31,319 Speaker 7: and the rest comes from the private sector. But I 719 00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:33,800 Speaker 7: think that, you know, most of the payments will continue 720 00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:37,200 Speaker 7: to be made. What doesn't happen is that things like 721 00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:40,960 Speaker 7: small business loan applications, those won't get processed. But as 722 00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:44,120 Speaker 7: far as the payment system for the federal government, in 723 00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:46,760 Speaker 7: most circumstances, that will continue as normal. 724 00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:50,040 Speaker 2: We're spending time with Ben Harris's former chief economists the 725 00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:54,080 Speaker 2: Treasury Department. He's now head of the Economic Studies program 726 00:38:54,320 --> 00:38:57,480 Speaker 2: at Brookings. Interesting headlines today from Janet Yellen. Ben, I'm 727 00:38:57,520 --> 00:38:59,000 Speaker 2: not sure if you saw this, but I'd love your 728 00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:04,080 Speaker 2: take if you did. She was talking about recent prices, 729 00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:10,319 Speaker 2: showing that the price cap on Russian oil may not 730 00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:12,480 Speaker 2: actually be effective, that it may not be working. And 731 00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:15,320 Speaker 2: we know that Russia has brought in billions of dollars 732 00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:18,360 Speaker 2: in dark oil exports. What do you make of this news? 733 00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:21,960 Speaker 7: So my take on the price cap was that the 734 00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:25,560 Speaker 7: price cap was enormously effective over the first half a 735 00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:29,640 Speaker 7: year or so after it was put in place. Russia 736 00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:33,680 Speaker 7: has undertaken countermeasures which I think probably surprised no one, 737 00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:37,319 Speaker 7: and has shifted a larger sere of that trade outside 738 00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:40,080 Speaker 7: of the price cap coalition. This doesn't mean that the 739 00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:42,960 Speaker 7: price cap isn't effective or wasn't effective in the past. 740 00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:43,480 Speaker 2: It was. 741 00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:45,960 Speaker 7: What it means is the coalition needs to adapt and 742 00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:50,360 Speaker 7: evolve and put in place remedies that push back against 743 00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:52,680 Speaker 7: those countermeasures that Russia has undertaken. 744 00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:55,320 Speaker 2: So what should the next step look like? Should this 745 00:39:55,360 --> 00:39:56,040 Speaker 2: remain in place? 746 00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:00,440 Speaker 7: Oh, it should definitely remain in place. I think the 747 00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:04,440 Speaker 7: next step is increased enforcement on behalf of the coalition, 748 00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:07,280 Speaker 7: so not just within the United States, but in Europe 749 00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:10,960 Speaker 7: and in other coalition countries. I think it could take 750 00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:16,200 Speaker 7: steps such as potentially banning the sale of tankers to Russia. 751 00:40:16,880 --> 00:40:19,319 Speaker 7: I would have liked to see that measure be put 752 00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:21,759 Speaker 7: in place, but it's really a focus, I think on 753 00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:26,520 Speaker 7: enforcement rather than adjusting the price cap levels. We need 754 00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:30,240 Speaker 7: to keep a fairly substantial share of Russian oil trade 755 00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:32,840 Speaker 7: under the price cap for it to remain effective, and 756 00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:35,960 Speaker 7: that's really what's up to the coalition to take on next. 757 00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:39,280 Speaker 2: We look glad you could join us today. Ben Harris, 758 00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:43,440 Speaker 2: vice President, Director of Economic Studies at Brookings, formerly with 759 00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:46,120 Speaker 2: the Treasury Department of the Biden administration, and a very 760 00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:49,640 Speaker 2: recent memory with reflections here of what's happening at the 761 00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:52,920 Speaker 2: Treasury now with our government set to shut down tomorrow 762 00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:56,960 Speaker 2: at midnight, we'll continue to bring you voices from inside 763 00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:59,480 Speaker 2: the Beltway to better understand what's happening in this time 764 00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:02,320 Speaker 2: of chaos. Us here on sound On. I'm Joe Matthew. 765 00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:10,239 Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the sound On podcast. 766 00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:13,400 Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 767 00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:15,880 Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. And you can 768 00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:18,920 Speaker 2: find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one 769 00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:21,960 Speaker 2: pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com.