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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna just about that Action Boss. All right, here

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Speaker 2: we go.

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Speaker 3: We're throwing out so spect. We're sitting up to cash

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Speaker 3: touch stops.

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Speaker 4: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 4: go to win.

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Speaker 5: That's incredible being bank, small bank, I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabine.

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Speaker 2: You want to pass and we are under way.

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Speaker 6: Welcome in Action Network Podcast, joined by Evan Abrams, our

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Speaker 6: director of Research in Media, Chris Raybond, one of our

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Speaker 6: NFL experts at Action Network, Rinding Glass Sheen, and the

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Speaker 6: host chair.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to a new show here on the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 3: We will be joining you or.

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Speaker 6: We're gonna record every Tuesday of the NFL season. We

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Speaker 6: are coming to you Tuesday, September third, two days before

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Speaker 6: Chiefs and Ray Evans kickoff the season. This is NFL

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Speaker 6: Round Table. I would like to call this, in my opinion,

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Speaker 6: I won't speak for you too, like a debrief group

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Speaker 6: therapy session. Make sure we stay sane kind of show.

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Speaker 6: It's not like your typical pod we do here at

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Speaker 6: Action which we know most of you come for picks

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Speaker 6: and analysis, deep dive and there will be some deep

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Speaker 6: dive stuff. But the idea is to sort of set

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Speaker 6: the table for the coming week. Next week will be

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Speaker 6: a lot easier in weeks forthcoming because we'll have actual

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Speaker 6: games to digest. But the idea here is to get

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Speaker 6: ready for Week one and some of the big storylines

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Speaker 6: around the league. I'm sure injuries will pop up, quarterback competitions,

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Speaker 6: quarterback injuries, coaching changes, whatever it may be. So this

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Speaker 6: is gonna our first this is our first one, so

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Speaker 6: bear with us. It will be Evan or Brandon Anderson

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Speaker 6: each week, and then Chris Raybon is our rotating guest

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Speaker 6: of Action Network NFL contributors that will join us, So

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Speaker 6: i will turn it over to you.

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Speaker 3: Guys.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna start Caleb.

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Speaker 6: Williams and the Bears taking on the Tennessee Titans, and

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Speaker 6: the Bears are a favorite this week at four and

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Speaker 6: a half. But Raybon, the idea here is we've got

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Speaker 6: a quarterback in his first year first overall, pick a

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Speaker 6: lot of hype going into the Caleb Williams train. He's

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Speaker 6: a favorite of more than a field goal, and there's

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Speaker 6: some historical data that's important to note.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I'm not even gonna steal Evan's thunders.

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Speaker 5: So Evan break down the numbers and then I'll get

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Speaker 5: into my feelings about these guys.

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Speaker 2: So everybody, how's it going? But here's the Stata kind

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Speaker 2: of set the table. So there have been twenty seven

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Speaker 2: number one overall pick since the merger in nineteen seventy

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Speaker 2: and in their first start there are four twenty two

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Speaker 2: and one straight up, seven and twenty against the spread.

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Speaker 2: And famously, as I feel like we hear every year,

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Speaker 2: David Carr, David Carr, not Derek in two thousand and

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Speaker 2: two is the last straight up winner. So but listen,

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Speaker 2: Caleb Land four and a half at home doesn't happen

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Speaker 2: every time for a rookie, especially in this spot. So

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Speaker 2: it's a little bit unique.

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Speaker 5: Okay, go all right, So listen, I love Kleb, I

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Speaker 5: love what the Bears on offense. However, it's all about

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Speaker 5: the value, right and this Titan team they're either going

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Speaker 5: to be sneaky good or at least feisty this year,

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Speaker 5: because yes, Will Levis is unproven, but you bring in Callahan,

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Speaker 5: who was, you know, the offensive coordinator in Cincinnati for

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Speaker 5: the last few years. You bring in Calvin Ridley and

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Speaker 5: Tyler Boyd at wide receiver, Tony Pollard at running back,

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Speaker 5: and Cushion Berry at center, which is big. He was

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Speaker 5: at top ten center at PFF and you draft the

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Speaker 5: top seven tackle. So a lot of the spots that

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Speaker 5: you were struggling at last year you've kind of solidified

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Speaker 5: on the offensive side. And then on defense you had

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Speaker 5: with jerryus Snee at corner, you had a Woozia at corner,

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Speaker 5: you had Digs in the secondary, and then you traded

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Speaker 5: for Ernest Jones went under the radar. Remember he was

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Speaker 5: a key piece of that Rams defense in the Super

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Speaker 5: Bowl and he was a top thirteen linebacker among eighty

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Speaker 5: two qualifiers.

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Speaker 3: And PFF last year still great.

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Speaker 5: You know, rushing the passers still can plug the runs,

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Speaker 5: so and they still have Simmons in the middle. So

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Speaker 5: this is not gonna be an easy out in my

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Speaker 5: opinion is Tennessee. So this Bears team first start for Kleb,

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Speaker 5: you know, it could be a little rocky.

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Speaker 3: So I think the values with Tennessee.

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Speaker 2: Couldn't agree more. I mean, I need four and a

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Speaker 2: half for more. You're gonna hear it a little bit

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Speaker 2: later when we talk about some division long shots. I

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Speaker 2: kind of like Tennessee and the division is you know,

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Speaker 2: obviously Houston's a class at the moment. Everyone thinks Jacksonville

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Speaker 2: is gonna be what they're gonna be, and we've only

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Speaker 2: seen minutes of Anthony Richardson. But I think Tennessee has

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Speaker 2: done a lot in the offseason. You mentioned it all,

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Speaker 2: and the upgrades are there, so I need four and

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Speaker 2: a half for more. But Tennessee, I'm with you.

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Speaker 6: How long do you guys think it's gonna take for

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Speaker 6: the Bears to settle in with Waldron as their offensive coordinator?

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Speaker 6: With all these moving parts, it's a crowded room right

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Speaker 6: at running back and at receiver of course.

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Speaker 2: Oh listen, I like Chicago this year, but I think

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Speaker 2: it's gonna take a minute. Okay, right, I do. And

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Speaker 2: it's funny. Early in the offseason when I was seeing

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Speaker 2: all these moves, this was actually kind of one of

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Speaker 2: the games. I was like, I just want the extra half.

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Speaker 2: Want I want more than four because this could easily

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Speaker 2: be twenty three to twenty Chicago and you know, he

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Speaker 2: gets the win. We talk about it since two thousand

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Speaker 2: and two, and everyone holding Tennessee tickets is happy.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's I think it's gonna take about a month

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Speaker 5: or so. I mean, you go to Houston after this,

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Speaker 5: and then Indy say you're gonna play two straight indoor games.

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Speaker 5: So the offense actually might start clicking in that third

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Speaker 5: week against Indianapolis, because good luck naming the best players,

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Speaker 5: or the good luck naming two good players in their

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Speaker 5: secondary I don't know if they have two.

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Speaker 3: They might have one. I don't know if they have two.

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Speaker 6: Okay, there's your Caleb Williams outlook week one. But the

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Speaker 6: guys like the Titans, All right, let's move on. We're

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Speaker 6: gonna look at Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin is another dog.

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Speaker 6: There's another one for you, right, So David is someone

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Speaker 6: who comes up all the time. Mike Tomlin is a dog.

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Speaker 6: Steelers finishing above five hundred, which with the seventeen games,

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Speaker 6: you can't finish at five hundred. But the Steelers are

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Speaker 6: a three point underdog at Atlanta. Arthur Smith returns to Atlanta.

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Speaker 6: It's a revenge spot for Arthur Smith, who is Mike

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Speaker 6: Tomlin's offensive coordinator. Simply put Ray Bond will start with you,

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Speaker 6: Mike Tomlin, keep it up as a dog.

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Speaker 4: Guys that played for me, they can tell you. One

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Speaker 4: of my sayings I got a lot of sayings is

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Speaker 4: don't seek comfort. I realize if you're gonna have special

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Speaker 4: outcomes that you gotta be comfortable being uncomfortable appreciating my

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Speaker 4: resume is seeking comfort.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he can. I mean this is disgusting. I don't.

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Speaker 5: I mean, the line is about right. I don't really

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Speaker 5: want either side of this. But if I'm betting it,

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Speaker 5: I have to go Pittsburgh because for me, this defense

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Speaker 5: just matches up well. I like Russell Wilson, he's he

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Speaker 5: might ruin everything. But you have to consider on the

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Speaker 5: other side that remember Pittsburgh has you know why, and

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Speaker 5: and when you when you're playing up against wat you

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Speaker 5: don't want to be a primary one to one personnel team,

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Speaker 5: which is what Atlanta is on offense. Their scheme is

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Speaker 5: going to be completely different. And when you're one one

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Speaker 5: like ninety five percent of the time, that's just less

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Speaker 5: help you can give on what or on the other

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Speaker 5: side as well, Porter, you know six' two has the

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Speaker 5: size to match up With. London jackson on the other

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Speaker 5: side is, fast you know Against, mooney so they match

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Speaker 5: up really. Well you still got Dez roaman back, there

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Speaker 5: So it's nothing to do with the, offense BECAUSE i

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Speaker 5: think the offense is going.

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Speaker 3: To be very. Bad and it would be ironic.

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Speaker 5: If Russell wilson was the Reason mike Tom win finally

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Speaker 5: had to lose the. Season BUT i could just See,

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Speaker 5: pittsburgh you, Know atlanta first, Game Kirk cousins coming off The,

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Speaker 5: achilles no preseason works, Defense simmons first game with this new,

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Speaker 5: Defense judon first, game like just a lot of newness

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Speaker 5: On atlanta as. Well Arthur smith is familiar with much

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Speaker 5: of that, roster so he's gonna be able to help

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Speaker 5: on both sides of the. Ball game, plan AND i

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Speaker 5: just think this, defense you, know could Hold atlanta to

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Speaker 5: field goals and you can look up in the fourth

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Speaker 5: quarter and you know it'll be, like, uh you, know

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Speaker 5: ten to nine falcons or something like. That so like

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Speaker 5: that that IF i gotta, bet IF i got a

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Speaker 5: bet this, Game That's that's the Way i'm doing. It

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Speaker 5: i'm gonna row With, pittsburgh But i'm not gonna be

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Speaker 5: happy about.

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Speaker 1: It it's a new new, scheme new new.

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Speaker 6: Staff Zach, robinson o c Under Raheem morris who head.

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Speaker 6: Coach you mentioned the quarterback And it's a fresh, start

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Speaker 6: yes for The bijon's And Drake london's and maybe Maybe Kyle.

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Speaker 6: Pitts maybe this is the year For Kyle. Pitts there's a,

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Speaker 6: lot a lot of newness In. Atlanta any thoughts, Here

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Speaker 6: evan on the h on this game as it pertains

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Speaker 6: to The steelers getting three At, atlanta.

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Speaker 2: Raybaund did, say And i'm gonna, AGREE i think the line's.

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Speaker 2: RIGHT i think three actually is the. Numbers So i'm

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Speaker 2: not Sure i'm in love with this game either, way

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Speaker 2: But i'm probably on the opposite side Of Ray. Bun

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Speaker 2: IF i had to make a pick in this, One

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Speaker 2: i'd Go atlanta minus. THREE i just can see so

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Speaker 2: much going wrong on the Pitt now listen the two

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Speaker 2: situations Between cousins Against pittsburgh's defensive line And rogers now

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Speaker 2: against The San francisco defensive. LINE i think those are

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Speaker 2: two situations off of injuries you probably have to be

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Speaker 2: most worried about this, week and this is obviously one

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Speaker 2: of those. Spots BUT i kind of Like atlanta at

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Speaker 2: least at the field goal no higher and right now

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Speaker 2: looking at the Action labs day and THIS i only

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Speaker 2: say this BECAUSE i laugh because it's just. Changed But

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Speaker 2: pittsburgh's the biggest public side this week getting three, points

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Speaker 2: so twenty three to twenty, again maybe you, know twenty

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Speaker 2: four to twenty get a. Cover BUT i Think atlanta's

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Speaker 2: the right. Side i'm not a big.

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Speaker 5: Sbe gives up twenty four. Points they're not winning this.

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Speaker 5: Game yeah we're covering. That, okay, guys you're, right YOU'RE

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Speaker 5: i think this has to be a teens game For

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Speaker 5: pittsburgh Where atlanta moves it but but stalls out in

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Speaker 5: the red zone Because cousins is not on the same

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Speaker 5: page with you, know some of his new.

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Speaker 3: Weapons fair two.

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Speaker 1: Game previews here ON nfl Round.

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Speaker 6: Table as we mentioned off the, top this is kind

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Speaker 6: of a show that we will do some bigger picture

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Speaker 6: topics And week ones a great week for that because

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Speaker 6: we don't have any, Results we don't have any games

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Speaker 6: in hand, yet so from a bigger picture perspective going

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Speaker 6: Into week, one we have fourteen starting quarterbacks that haven't

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Speaker 6: won a playoff. Game, Bonix Anthony, Richardson, Gardner Minshew, Tua

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Speaker 6: Sam darnold who's In, Minnesota Bryce, Young Derek, Carr, brissett

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Speaker 6: And May may being A Rookie, Lewis Caleb, Williams, Kyler Herbert,

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Speaker 6: Gino Jayden daniels In. Washington what's the thought process, Here

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Speaker 6: evan in terms of noting this particular STAT.

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Speaker 2: I Think Ray bond is going to agree with me

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Speaker 2: at least off the top on what the math. Says

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Speaker 2: and That's, miami. Right, like if you were going to

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Speaker 2: look at the fourteen quarterbacks and, say, okay out of

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Speaker 2: all of, them which either has the lowest odds to

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Speaker 2: make the playoffs or has like the highest, probability it

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Speaker 2: would be two in The. Dolphins but that's not the fun,

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Speaker 2: answer AND i don't even know necessarily if it's the right.

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Speaker 2: ANSWER i, think from my, perspective IF i was going

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Speaker 2: to pick one of these guys and maybe be a

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Speaker 2: little bit of like a outlier in a, SENSE i

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Speaker 2: might actually go with The levis richardson side of, this

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Speaker 2: in That houston division With jacksonville as, WELL i think

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Speaker 2: both of them could find Because i'm looking, for to,

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Speaker 2: me at least the easiest, Division, like what's a path

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Speaker 2: that one of these guys who we don't see is

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Speaker 2: great right now or even good right, now like could

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Speaker 2: get to the playoffs and potentially get a home playoff.

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Speaker 2: Game so that was a direction THAT i had. It

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Speaker 2: And i'm going to talk About tennessee again in a.

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Speaker 2: SECOND i JUST i think they've improved a, lot and

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Speaker 2: not that there was anything wrong with The vrabel, side

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Speaker 2: BECAUSE i THINK i think we all disagreed with the,

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Speaker 2: firing BUT i think they've upgraded the. Roster so to,

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Speaker 2: me it's probably A Levis richardson. Situation, ray BUT i

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Speaker 2: think you're gonna look at it a little.

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Speaker 5: Differently, Yeah So, miami by the, math makes sense if

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Speaker 5: you're just looking for the team most likely to make the.

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Speaker 5: Playoffs but that's kind of the status. Quote we Expect

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Speaker 5: miami to make the, playoffs and when they get to the,

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Speaker 5: playoffs they'll PROBABLY i think The jets have an easier

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Speaker 5: schedule And buffalo's probably a little bit. Better SO i

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Speaker 5: don't think The dolphins win the, division which means they

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Speaker 5: probably go on the road in their first playoff, game,

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Speaker 5: Right so if they go on the, road there's a

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Speaker 5: good chance you're facing either The jets Or, buffalo Or

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Speaker 5: cincinnati Or baltimore Or Kansas.

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Speaker 3: City this is THE.

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Speaker 5: Afc SO i JUST i think The dolphins could kind

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Speaker 5: of do what we expect and still not actually pay

256
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Speaker 5: off that. Bet So i'm gonna go a little bit longer,

257
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Speaker 5: shot but a quarterback WHO i think is even, better

258
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Speaker 5: and that's Justin, herbert and the reason being The chargers

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Speaker 5: ARE i think a little bit less than five fifty

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Speaker 5: to fifty to make the. Playoffs but if they do

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Speaker 5: make the, playoffs that means a lot went right Around.

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Speaker 5: Herbert you, know like we know What herbert. Is but

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Speaker 5: the question mark are you, know can this skilled position

264
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Speaker 5: offense Without allen And williams And, echler can they? Survive

265
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Speaker 5: can you, know Can harball kind of transform that defense and?

266
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Speaker 3: Whatnot so if.

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Speaker 5: That's all, CLICKING i Think herbert gives you a good

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Speaker 5: chance as any to win a, game even if it's

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Speaker 5: on the, road because remember they already don't have much

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Speaker 5: home field, advantage so they'll probably be battle. Tested they'll

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Speaker 5: probably have one of a bunch of road games just

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Speaker 5: to get.

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Speaker 3: In and then you look At.

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Speaker 5: Harball he's forty four and nineteen and one career made

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Speaker 5: the playoffs in three of his four seasons as a head,

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Speaker 5: coach including each of the first. Three he also won

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Speaker 5: a playoff game in each of his first three seasons

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Speaker 5: as head coach in three and three of, four and

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Speaker 5: he won playoff games with Both Alex smith And Callan.

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Speaker 3: Kaepernick so like WHEN i just.

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Speaker 5: Put together the coach and the quarterback AND i look

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Speaker 5: for like a fringe, Team i'm looking at The. Chargers you,

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Speaker 5: know maybe it's the seven seed and they're gonna have

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Speaker 5: a tough. Matchup but you, know if anyone of the

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Speaker 5: if the if any team can go on the road

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00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:09,920
Speaker 5: and knockoff AN Afc east, TEAM i think The chargers

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00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:12,040
Speaker 5: might have a. Shot and if they, play if they

288
00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:14,640
Speaker 5: end up playing like The, chiefs hey that's the division.

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Speaker 5: Game you never know what could happen. There SO i

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Speaker 5: do see The chargers with a path. Here And herbert

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Speaker 5: you know he's good. ENOUGH i, mean what do you

292
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Speaker 5: have like a thirty nothing? Lead last time he was

293
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Speaker 5: in the, playoffs so.

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Speaker 3: Right he Got, yeah he was.

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Speaker 6: There we'll have more on quarterbacks and just a bit

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Speaker 6: in terms of their meaning to the points spread here

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Speaker 6: on THE Nfl. Roundtable Evan abrams also has His week

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Speaker 6: one betting trends stats, notes His Action Network betting primer

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Speaker 6: For week one available at actionnetwork dot. Com in The

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Speaker 6: action app came out first Thing tuesday, morning so it's

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Speaker 6: available to you now heading Into, thursday and more importantly

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Speaker 6: For friday And. Sunday we've got A friday game this

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Speaker 6: week In brazil of. Course, okay circling back to two,

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Speaker 6: games looking at the highest total in the lowest, total

305
00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:01,160
Speaker 6: what is Likelier New england In, cincinnati and we'll get to.

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Speaker 6: Survivor so we're going to do a Quick survivor minute

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Speaker 6: on the first episode OF Nfl. Roundtables one of the

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Speaker 6: most popular survivor picks this. Week cincinnati the only team

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00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:12,119
Speaker 6: laying more than a touchdown this, week hosting The. Patriots

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Speaker 6: totals at forty and a half For New England. Cincinnati

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Speaker 6: Vegas chargers also has a total of forty and a,

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Speaker 6: Half so which is likely are under In New England,

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00:15:22,040 --> 00:15:27,920
Speaker 6: cincinnati under In Vegas chargers or over In Rams Lions

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Speaker 6: INN nfc playoff rematch at fifty, One so.

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Speaker 2: To be clear That rams one is also the highest

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Speaker 2: total of the, Week so you're going under the lowest

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Speaker 2: or over the. Highest to, me it's The Vegas chargers.

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Speaker 2: GAME i was laughing Through Raybond's herbert dialogue just Because

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Speaker 2: i'm very negative on The chargers this year at like under.

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Speaker 2: Nine there's some things that kind of scares, me even

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Speaker 2: THOUGH i Love. Harbaugh SO i kind of see a

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Speaker 2: low scoring game With minshew and the Current chargers, offense

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Speaker 2: and especially the way THAT i kind of like they

324
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Speaker 2: guess his. Defense SO i was gonna go under forty

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Speaker 2: and a. Half that game opened forty three and a,

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Speaker 2: half so down three full points In week. Ones usually

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00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:11,960
Speaker 2: historically you don't have to worry about the line movement

328
00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:14,840
Speaker 2: still goes under the closing. Total SO i kind of

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Speaker 2: like under in that.

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Speaker 6: One Chris raybond those three games highest high lowis.

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Speaker 5: Low i'm rolling with The Chargers raiders as. Well AND

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Speaker 5: i mean you got run Heavy Greg roman against the

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Speaker 5: Former bears offensive.

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Speaker 3: Coordinator that's the that's the coaching.

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Speaker 5: Matchup you Have herbert's first game with all these without you,

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00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:36,720
Speaker 5: know over fifty percent of his career yardage and, touchdowns

337
00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:41,920
Speaker 5: And Alan Williams. Eckler you Have herbert maybe on an injury, too,

338
00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:45,440
Speaker 5: yeah coming off an. Injury and you saw it happened

339
00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:47,160
Speaker 5: To burrow last year when he came into the year

340
00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:49,760
Speaker 5: with an, injury WHICH i mean maybe he's doing, again

341
00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:55,360
Speaker 5: But Gardner minshew and his first regular season game in

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Speaker 5: a new, offense you, know with new teammates not guaranteed

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00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:02,280
Speaker 5: to be on the same. Page and remember This vegas,

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Speaker 5: defense after what two decades of, futility they allowed just

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00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:11,800
Speaker 5: sixteen points per game in the nine games After Antonio

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Speaker 5: peers to go over twenty three point.

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Speaker 3: Four prior to.

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Speaker 5: That so this became more of a run, heavy hard nosed,

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00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:24,840
Speaker 5: defense defensive minded team Under, pierce AND i think that.

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00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:28,399
Speaker 5: Continues and we know The, chargers you, know, Yeah, Harbaugh

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Speaker 5: herbert With west passing game, Weapons Greg, roman THE.

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Speaker 3: OC i, mean this just screams like seventeen. Thirteen, okay

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Speaker 3: there you.

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00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:40,600
Speaker 6: Go so they're gonna lean under on A chargers And

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Speaker 6: Raiders division matchup in week number. One SO i mentioned

356
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Speaker 6: we talked about, quarterbacks and we mentioned quarterbacks that didn't

357
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Speaker 6: make the playoffs fourteen in THE nfl that are set

358
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Speaker 6: to Start week one or maybe some. Combination we mapped

359
00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:56,520
Speaker 6: Out Drake may And Kobe prissett being cut of as.

360
00:17:56,520 --> 00:18:01,320
Speaker 6: One there was sixty, six sixty six starting quarterbacks last

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Speaker 6: year in THE, nfl sixty six and that leads to

362
00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:09,119
Speaker 6: the injury the injury bug And Aaron, Rodgers Joe burrow

363
00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:11,119
Speaker 6: or the first two that come to mind right. Away

364
00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:14,639
Speaker 6: Anthony richardson was injured as. Well last Year Daniel Jones

365
00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:16,560
Speaker 6: Kirk cousins a big one right with The. Achilles So

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Speaker 6: Sean kerner did a great job of. This kerner's going

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Speaker 6: to be joining this show throughout the course of the.

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Speaker 6: Year But kerner over At Action network has a rite

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Speaker 6: up from earlier In august how how much each quarterback

370
00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:31,280
Speaker 6: is worth against the, spread so as not a this

371
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Speaker 6: is more something to keep in mind going Forward week,

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Speaker 6: one we know who's who at this. Point The patriots

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Speaker 6: did Name bset their. Starter they were the last team

374
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Speaker 6: to name their. Starter but at some point someone's gonna

375
00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:43,600
Speaker 6: get hurt or there's a change at. Quarterback BUT i

376
00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:47,760
Speaker 6: think it's fun to give the audience, Here evan quarterbacks

377
00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:49,720
Speaker 6: that mean the most to the?

378
00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:50,320
Speaker 2: Spread can you?

379
00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:54,199
Speaker 6: Guess can you guess the top five quarterbacks that have

380
00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:55,960
Speaker 6: the most impact to a point?

381
00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:58,919
Speaker 2: Spread so it's funny now Seeing raybahnd's list for the

382
00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:02,320
Speaker 2: first time right at this current. Moment some of them

383
00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:05,320
Speaker 2: are very, easy and THEN i have one that's clearly,

384
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:09,440
Speaker 2: missing But i'll. Explain so the first one that's super

385
00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:12,560
Speaker 2: easy is Obviously Pat mahomes is one when says his,

386
00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:16,359
Speaker 2: BACKUP i think that's. Enough set, TWO i Have Josh.

387
00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:19,639
Speaker 2: Allen trubisky's the backup, there but What alan brings to the,

388
00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:24,840
Speaker 2: game from rushing to just literally the entire, PACKAGE i

389
00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:27,159
Speaker 2: think it's enough to probably make him probably second on the.

390
00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:31,000
Speaker 2: List third Is LAMAR i think the same type of.

391
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:34,840
Speaker 2: Deal his Backup's Josh, johnson who, journeyman been everywhere but

392
00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:40,600
Speaker 2: also pretty reliable on some. LEVEL i have four With Burrow.

393
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:44,159
Speaker 2: Now we saw so much good at A Jake browning

394
00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:47,800
Speaker 2: last year we almost probably said to, ourselves, well you

395
00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:50,879
Speaker 2: know what level is each, like you know where does it?

396
00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:53,840
Speaker 2: Start where does it? End so maybe it Declined burrow a,

397
00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:56,879
Speaker 2: tad BUT i still Have burrow. There and then my

398
00:19:57,000 --> 00:20:01,320
Speaker 2: fifth Is Dak Cooper rush now in that second, slot

399
00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:03,440
Speaker 2: but we're talking about the guy who probably had the

400
00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:08,160
Speaker 2: career year last, YEAR mvp status all around in all

401
00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:11,159
Speaker 2: of his, numbers obviously needed to get paid in this

402
00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:14,000
Speaker 2: situation because whoever was going to go into that slot

403
00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:16,760
Speaker 2: in place of him For dallas was never going to

404
00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:19,840
Speaker 2: be the right. Answer, now the ONE i Know i'm

405
00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:23,560
Speaker 2: missing here Is. Stroud back UP i believe Is Davis.

406
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:27,199
Speaker 2: MILLS i think he's probably right. THERE i JUST i

407
00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:30,720
Speaker 2: need to see one more year for at least. Now

408
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:34,040
Speaker 2: mills is terrible in a lot of, situations BUT i

409
00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:36,639
Speaker 2: do THINK i need a little bit more meat on the. Bone,

410
00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:38,080
Speaker 2: okay ray bomb hit. Me.

411
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:40,879
Speaker 5: Mahomes wentz is number, one just Because mahomes is so.

412
00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:44,760
Speaker 5: Good wentz is actually probably like for a, starter he's,

413
00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:49,440
Speaker 5: terrible but in terms of, backups probably above. AVERAGE i would,

414
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:51,879
Speaker 5: say you, know so that's one of their better, Backs

415
00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,600
Speaker 5: WENTZ zappi that's the. Rope, YEAH i mean we're just

416
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,600
Speaker 5: going about the, backup, RIGHT i mean Even zappy that's

417
00:20:58,640 --> 00:20:59,120
Speaker 5: a great third.

418
00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:02,640
Speaker 3: Quarterback, terrible terrible starter and second.

419
00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:05,480
Speaker 5: Guy but, yeah that's just all due To. Mahomes number

420
00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:07,920
Speaker 5: two for me is C. J Stroud Davis.

421
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,199
Speaker 3: Mills C. J stroud to me is the closest thing To.

422
00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:14,439
Speaker 5: Mahomes Davis mills was probably not as good at this

423
00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:17,159
Speaker 5: juncture as Case, keenum But keenum went. ON i are

424
00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:20,120
Speaker 5: so Now miles is the, backup AND i just think

425
00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 5: that would be a massive. Downgrade Lamar jackson To Josh.

426
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:29,359
Speaker 5: Johnson number three for me just BECAUSE i Mean johnson's thirty.

427
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:31,159
Speaker 5: EIGHT i know THEY i think they signed Hunt we

428
00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:34,440
Speaker 5: to the practice. Squad but either, Way lamar just gives

429
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:37,480
Speaker 5: you so much as a runner and, thrower and it's

430
00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:41,840
Speaker 5: hard to replicate with these you, know bargain bin guys

431
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:43,080
Speaker 5: that they tried out there when he's.

432
00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:44,720
Speaker 3: Hurt number four for, Me.

433
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,439
Speaker 5: I'm actually might be a, surprise BUT i think this

434
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:50,320
Speaker 5: guy's next, up like he's not quite ON. C. J stroud,

435
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:53,719
Speaker 5: levels but he's, coming and That's Jordan. Love So i'm

436
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 5: gonna Go Jordan Love Malik willis because we've Seen Malik willis.

437
00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 5: Start remember they they Took Josh dobbs off the street

438
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:05,040
Speaker 5: in a must win game rather than Starting League willis

439
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 5: In tennessee a couple of years. Ago But Green bay's

440
00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:11,879
Speaker 5: quarterback situation was so dire With clifford And pratt that

441
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:15,399
Speaker 5: they ended up trading For. Willis so, now, uh you,

442
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:17,520
Speaker 5: Know willis looks like he's gonna enter the. Year is

443
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,240
Speaker 5: the backup To Jordan, love AND i just think that's a,

444
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:24,280
Speaker 5: massive massive drop. Off and then number five kind of cheating,

445
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:27,919
Speaker 5: here but for the first two, Games Stetson bennett is

446
00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,439
Speaker 5: gonna be the backup To Matthew stafford rather Than JIMMY. G,

447
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:32,960
Speaker 5: Now jimmy g is a great, backup kind of Like,

448
00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 5: wentz you, know not great, starter but as a, backup pretty.

449
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 3: Solid But Stetson bennet's.

450
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:43,199
Speaker 5: Horrible you, Know i've been TO rams preseason game at

451
00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:46,320
Speaker 5: least One rams preseason. Game, uh you, know each of

452
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 5: the last few YEARS i think he's been in the,

453
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 5: league what two years, now it hasn't been. Good SO

454
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:55,159
Speaker 5: i have zero confidence In. Stetson bennett And stafford just

455
00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 5: does so, much you, know whether it's you, know at

456
00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:02,360
Speaker 5: the line of, scrimmage the armstrand just the leadership. Ability

457
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:06,720
Speaker 5: SO i you, Know Burrow browning is kind of on the, fringe.

458
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:07,919
Speaker 3: But to meet Like burrow so.

459
00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 5: Good but the thing about it Was browning was actually

460
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:13,639
Speaker 5: kind of. Solid and the big THING i always looked for,

461
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,400
Speaker 5: too is they didn't really have to change the offense

462
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:20,640
Speaker 5: too much when they went To, brownie, like they still

463
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 5: were able to go with a lot of their same.

464
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:27,200
Speaker 5: Concepts so that's Why i'm gonna go with a guy

465
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 5: like Love willis And Stafford stetson BECAUSE i just think

466
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:33,440
Speaker 5: it would be such a big drop off in such a, bad,

467
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 5: bad bad performance by the backup if those guys were

468
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 5: to go, DOWN.

469
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:38,480
Speaker 2: I have so many.

470
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:42,480
Speaker 6: Questions So curner ranks these in the right. UP i

471
00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:44,479
Speaker 6: mentioned a moment, ago so he's Got mahomes won at

472
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:46,399
Speaker 6: six point. Five this is the amount of points the

473
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:49,480
Speaker 6: quarterback is worth to the Number lamar five and a,

474
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:52,359
Speaker 6: Half borrow five and a, Half stroud, Five Josh allen.

475
00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 1: Five So raybaund leaves Out Josh.

476
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 6: Allen you both didn't Mention Jalen, hurts who is, six

477
00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:59,040
Speaker 6: so he didn't crack the top, five but any quick

478
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 6: quick follow up on her and he Mentioned Jalen hurts so.

479
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,359
Speaker 5: Well so the thing, AGAIN i thought we were talking

480
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,639
Speaker 5: about like the starter versus the. Backup so the reason

481
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 5: LIKE i would actually Have stroud in that second tier

482
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:14,679
Speaker 5: like with the other like who they Have, lamar SO

483
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:17,440
Speaker 5: i would have And allen. Too so Like Alan, Burrow,

484
00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:19,879
Speaker 5: stroud all those guys to me are in that second.

485
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:24,640
Speaker 5: TIER i don't have them that. Separate But Mitch, TRUBISKY

486
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 5: i mean it's not it's a it's a big drop,

487
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:31,919
Speaker 5: off but compared to some of these other, Dropoffs, no

488
00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 5: and Then Jalen hurts is not there. Yet to, Me

489
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 5: Kenny pickett now is really.

490
00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 3: Bad so Like Kenny, pickett he's. Sucked.

491
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 5: Yeah so that's the only thing is that if we're

492
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,160
Speaker 5: talking about the variance between the starter and the, Backup

493
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:49,160
Speaker 5: Kenny pickett could make a case for being bad, enough

494
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,639
Speaker 5: But Jalen hurts IS i would have him about over

495
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:56,399
Speaker 5: a point about point and a half below That Stroud allen.

496
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 5: Tier Like Jalen hurts is good because like he's, great

497
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 5: but really there's a lot of things around, him you,

498
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 5: know whether it be the offensive, line you, know the

499
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 5: two very good, receivers and you, know there's just a

500
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 5: lot of things along With Jalen hurts THAT i think

501
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 5: he hasn't taken that next step yet and he still

502
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:18,199
Speaker 5: has some uh why you, know liabilities like last, year you,

503
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 5: know just couldn't handle the blitz and this is gonna

504
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:22,639
Speaker 5: be the first year he's actually making the old line.

505
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:25,640
Speaker 5: Calls so, yeah he's not in that in that same

506
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:27,679
Speaker 5: tier for. Me but If pickett continues to be that,

507
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 5: bad then uh, yeah he's gonna he's gonna be challenging

508
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:31,520
Speaker 5: for that top five.

509
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:34,159
Speaker 2: Week willis became the backup In Green bay and all

510
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:36,680
Speaker 2: of a, Sudden Jordan love became a top three, quarterback

511
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 2: and that that was WHAT i was laughing, about because you're, RIGHT.

512
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 3: I Think Jordan love. Is he's Not stroud.

513
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 5: Level but if anyone enters that tier this year and

514
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:48,359
Speaker 5: people are, like, oh you, know, okay who's the next

515
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:51,560
Speaker 5: guy that's gonna kind of not maybe surprisingly into the,

516
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 5: tier but just take that, STEP i think It's Jordan.

517
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 3: LOVE i think everything's. THERE i think the town is.

518
00:25:56,080 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 5: There he has the, continuity all the pieces around found,

519
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 5: him like he can make all the.

520
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 2: Throws the.

521
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 5: LEADERSHIP i JUST i don't really see anything negative About

522
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:07,400
Speaker 5: Jordan love.

523
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 2: Period so far from the head we've seen. Ridiculous, yeah

524
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:11,879
Speaker 2: offensive head coach.

525
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:13,960
Speaker 1: Too no disrespect To Bobby slowick In.

526
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 3: Houston but oh, no he's great.

527
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 5: Too, yeah but Like stroud is just like he's Like.

528
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:22,919
Speaker 5: Stroud any coordinator he would be great in my.

529
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:27,199
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557
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Speaker 1: Description, okay let's go to the next.

558
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 6: Topic favorite division long Shot Evan. Abrams that's ten to

559
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:17,120
Speaker 6: one or. Higher so your options Being New, England, Tennessee, Vegas,

560
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 6: denver The, commanders The, Giants, carolina or The.

561
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 2: Cardinals so for, me this is just about reverse engineering

562
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 2: the division to see WHO i thought had the best

563
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 2: chance to get to, a, say a top two. Slot

564
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 2: SO i wanted to Say carolina And. ARIZONA i have

565
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 2: bets on both of. THEM i have more On. ARIZONA

566
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 2: i know this entire company is big On, carolina BUT

567
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:43,479
Speaker 2: i do Think arizona is a good shot at This

568
00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 2: my next thought was gonna Be washington Because i'm not

569
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 2: high On. Dallas i'm not high on The. GIANTS i

570
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 2: Think philly wins a, division SO i kind of Liked

571
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:55,560
Speaker 2: washington as a bit of a deep sleeper in this.

572
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,080
Speaker 2: Slot But i'm gonna go With. Tennessee talked about it.

573
00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 2: EARLIER i Think strap And houston is definitely the. CLASS

574
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 2: i think the jump that they made from last year

575
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 2: to this. Year they're going to be just as, good

576
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 2: if not a little bit. Better BUT i just think

577
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 2: there's a chance for other teams. There i'm not as

578
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 2: up on The colts in certain circumstances BECAUSE i don't

579
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:19,640
Speaker 2: know About richardson's, health AND i Think tennessee's the right

580
00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 2: answer for. Me BUT i do Like arizona as probably

581
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 2: a be in that. Slot you know, What raybund's gonna.

582
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 5: Say carolina baby twelve to.

583
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:32,120
Speaker 3: ONE i, mean we.

584
00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 5: Have precedent here there BECAUSE i really Like canalis as

585
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 5: the head. Coach remember he was working as a quarterback

586
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 5: coach With Gno smith in twenty twenty two With. Seattle

587
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,200
Speaker 5: that team entered the, year you, Know dino's first year

588
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:50,240
Speaker 5: starting For Russell, wilson so you, know damaged goods for

589
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 5: former first round pick. Enters the year five and a

590
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 5: half is their win. Total canalis has been working with

591
00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 5: him and he has a career year and they win nine.

592
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:00,840
Speaker 3: GAMES i passed.

593
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 5: Their their win, total and you know they get, close they,

594
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:07,120
Speaker 5: don't you, Know niners are still. There but he also

595
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 5: did the same thing With Baker mayfield last year and

596
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 5: The bucks did win the. Division they had a win

597
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 5: total of six and a half entering the, year and

598
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:16,840
Speaker 5: they ended up you win in the division and a

599
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 5: playoff game to. Boot so WHEN i look at this,

600
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 5: division kind of reverse. Engineering Like evan, SAID i just

601
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 5: don't want to bet Against, houston BUT i really do Like,

602
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 5: TENNESSEE i think if And i've mentioned the drop off

603
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 5: From stroud To Davis, mills so there's absolutely a path

604
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 5: For tennessee in THAT Afc. South but THE Nfc, SOUTH

605
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 5: i think is the weakest division in. Football look at

606
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:42,960
Speaker 5: the three. Coaches you, Know canals was the first year head.

607
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 5: Coach he was an offensive coordinator of The bucks last,

608
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 5: year so first year head. Coach but look at the

609
00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 5: coaches he's going to be going up against twice. Each

610
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 5: Raheem morris career record twenty one and thirty, eight three

611
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 5: fifty six winning, percentage that's the division. Leader Todd bowles

612
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 5: with The, bucks that's the team who won the division last.

613
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 5: Year he's forty three and fifty eight a four to

614
00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 5: twenty sixth career winning, percentage the class of the, division

615
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 5: and of, course the odds on favorite to be the

616
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 5: first head coach Fired Dennis allen In New orleans twenty

617
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 5: four and forty six a three forty three career winning.

618
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:25,480
Speaker 5: Percentage SO i Mean carolina could go five and one

619
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 5: against THE Nfc, South, like it's not out of the

620
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 5: question That carolina goes, Over, like, WELL i got it

621
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 5: at four and a.

622
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 3: HALF i think it's at five and a.

623
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 5: HALF i still like it, too for even the win,

624
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:38,360
Speaker 5: total But carolina could go. Over it's win total win

625
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 5: the division, alone depending where you got. It and if

626
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 5: they do, that you know it's not gonna be there's

627
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:47,240
Speaker 5: gonna be a path to win that. Division and the

628
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 5: THING i like is the team with the best odds

629
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 5: to win Is. Atlanta but you have some frigidity, there,

630
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:55,720
Speaker 5: right a lot of new pieces and you have a

631
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 5: thirty six roer, quarterback new team coming off An achilles.

632
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 5: Injury just not a lot of like there's just not

633
00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 5: a lot of sample size to, Say, okay he's gonna

634
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 5: be fine or like guaranteed or even to put odds on.

635
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 5: It you, KNOW i Know MARINO i think came back from,

636
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:13,080
Speaker 5: it but that was in like what the mid, nineties

637
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 5: and he was. Fine but you've seen like running back

638
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:17,560
Speaker 5: like Cam akers never got.

639
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 3: Back like it's just hit or miss with These.

640
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 5: Achilles SO i think there's some real downside to The

641
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 5: falcons that if you take them out of the equation

642
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 5: that you're talking about The.

643
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 3: Box and The. Saints, Yeah i'll give You carolina all.

644
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 2: Day let me give you one stet so to kind

645
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 2: of back up what we're talking. About so it's looking

646
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 2: specifically at The, Falcons, eagles And. Texans twenty five teams

647
00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 2: in the Wild Card irison nineteen ninety have closed as

648
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 2: an odds on favorite of below one to. Fifty only

649
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 2: seven of those twenty five have won the, Division so

650
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:51,320
Speaker 2: eighteen didn't so low win the division kind of looks somewhere,

651
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 2: else and that leads to Our washington, talks Our tennessee,

652
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 2: talks Our carolina talks usually find some of these. Numbers

653
00:32:57,960 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 2: so just to thought.

654
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:01,000
Speaker 6: Ry ball on, you like this, Guy brad Is izick THE,

655
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:03,720
Speaker 6: oc he was In tampa THE oc For. Carolina he

656
00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:06,320
Speaker 6: was In tampa as the receivers. Coach this, guy is

657
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 6: this gonna be the guy to turn Around Bryce? Young

658
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:10,160
Speaker 6: is this guy gonna be getting jobs getting phone calls Next?

659
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 3: JANUARY i think it's All it's More.

660
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:16,360
Speaker 5: Canalis izick is just kind of the you, know Like

661
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 5: canalis is more like the he's it's his.

662
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:22,160
Speaker 3: Offense you, know he's the guy that's gonna turn.

663
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:25,000
Speaker 5: Around bryce Young issack is just a guy he brought

664
00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:26,880
Speaker 5: over to kind of you, know oversee.

665
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 3: Things But canalis is the.

666
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:32,680
Speaker 5: Key he's the guy that whoever he's, gone the quarterbacks

667
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:37,280
Speaker 5: have gotten, better and, specifically you, know highly drafted first

668
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 5: round quarterbacks that were thought to be you, know, busts damage,

669
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 5: goods whatever you want to call.

670
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 3: It so you, know they did the right things.

671
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 5: Right it's not just because Remember, carolina it started in

672
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:50,520
Speaker 5: the front. Office The giants kind of have this problem,

673
00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:53,880
Speaker 5: too but it was you, know fitterer BAD gm.

674
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:55,760
Speaker 3: FACT i, mean they had ghettom at one.

675
00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 5: Point like just going, back Like carolina's front office has been,

676
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:04,480
Speaker 5: shaky but you know, now you, know they bring in Canal,

677
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 5: is but they also bring In hunt And lewis on

678
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:09,920
Speaker 5: the interior, line which is key for a short. Quarterback

679
00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:12,799
Speaker 5: they bring In, johnson who could, separate and they you,

680
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 5: know they they're gonna put him back AT x receiver

681
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 5: where he had all his best years and that's key

682
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:21,120
Speaker 5: because he's not only a, separator but he's a separator AT,

683
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 5: x which means he can line up all the line

684
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 5: of scrimmage beat you, know press coverage whatever or.

685
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:28,560
Speaker 3: Not that's.

686
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:30,879
Speaker 5: That not every team has, that and then your draft

687
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:34,400
Speaker 5: will get in the you, know in the you, know

688
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:38,080
Speaker 5: early in the. Draft he's another guy who has some.

689
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:42,360
Speaker 5: Explosiveness you, Know brooks eventually still feeling now is like

690
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 5: a second or third option is a lot better than you,

691
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 5: know as the number one. Option so, uh they put

692
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:51,640
Speaker 5: the pieces around him, TOO i, think to. Succeed and

693
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:54,279
Speaker 5: that just was not there last. Year not like even

694
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 5: the offense That reich was trying to, run you, know was.

695
00:34:56,960 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 5: It the pieces didn't, match nothing.

696
00:34:58,640 --> 00:34:59,440
Speaker 3: Work it was just.

697
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 5: Terrible it was Like Trevor lawrence With Urban meyers Almost

698
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 5: like that's how DOWN i was On reich last. Year

699
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:10,399
Speaker 5: LIKE i was fading The panthers everywhere because Of, reich

700
00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 5: and NOW i love them because of this.

701
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 1: Higher, okay a couple more quick topics then we'll get

702
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:18,080
Speaker 1: out of. Here we'll stay On. Carolina this is a great.

703
00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 6: Stat when Will carolina break their streak and snap the

704
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:22,719
Speaker 6: ball with the lead in the fourth? Quarter, evan give,

705
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 6: us give us the stat on The panthers and then

706
00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 6: answer the.

707
00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:28,400
Speaker 2: Question, Yeah panthers didn't snap the ball while holding the

708
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 2: lead in the fourth quarter of a single game last.

709
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:32,400
Speaker 2: Season they won both of their games at The. Buzzer

710
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 2: they're the first team to do that in The Wildcard

711
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 2: arason nineteen. Ninety dating back to last, season, Though carolina

712
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:40,080
Speaker 2: hasn't snapped the ball with leading the fourth quarter Since

713
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:44,280
Speaker 2: week seventeen last, year eighteen games ago the year. Before

714
00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:47,360
Speaker 2: so the question is when do you think they're going

715
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 2: to do. It obviously four and a half point, DOGS

716
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:51,239
Speaker 2: i believe it is our four down to four In

717
00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:54,799
Speaker 2: week one In New. Orleans so if you don't like that,

718
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 2: One i'm just going to SAY i think it's going

719
00:35:56,760 --> 00:36:00,120
Speaker 2: to be weak two at home against The. Chargers that

720
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 2: is going to be What i'm gonna. Say they are

721
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:03,600
Speaker 2: going to lead that game in the fourth. Quarter they'll

722
00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 2: probably be in the game Against New, orleans but, Behind

723
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 2: that's What i'll, Say.

724
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:12,680
Speaker 5: Chris The panthers are gonna lead wire to wire In week.

725
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:15,880
Speaker 5: One they're gonna go down the field open and Drive

726
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 5: Bryce young touchdown To Deontay. Johnson Derek carr is gonna

727
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:23,880
Speaker 5: turn it over on his first. Drive the crowd is

728
00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:27,920
Speaker 5: gonna start chanting For Spencer rattler by. Halftime caroline is

729
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:31,279
Speaker 5: never going to relinquish the. Lead, well but if you want,

730
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 5: to if you want some ACTUAL Mak week One divisional

731
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:38,719
Speaker 5: dogs six twenty ten Per Action labs data have a

732
00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:41,800
Speaker 5: winning straight up, Record so these are underdogs in the

733
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 5: division In week one have a winning straight up record

734
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 5: forty thirty eight and two fifty one percent of them

735
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:52,240
Speaker 5: have won. Outright so the odds are in your favor

736
00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:56,160
Speaker 5: by the. Mask But Dennis allen the favorite to be

737
00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:58,760
Speaker 5: first coach. FIRED i would Say Derek carr the favorite

738
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:00,960
Speaker 5: to be first quarterback, bench Not Jacobe.

739
00:37:01,000 --> 00:37:04,000
Speaker 6: Psett, okay because.

740
00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:05,160
Speaker 3: Because Spencer, rattler Like.

741
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 5: Brisset And, may they clearly have a plan which is

742
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:13,799
Speaker 5: not to Expose may to this horrible offensive, line so

743
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:16,959
Speaker 5: they're probably gonna hold him out on. Purpose but Car

744
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:20,160
Speaker 5: rattler is kind of, Like, okay The saints actually have,

745
00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:23,480
Speaker 5: expectations but they have like one of the worst offensive

746
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:25,360
Speaker 5: LINES i think pff ranks and dead, ass but that

747
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:29,359
Speaker 5: was probably before The patriots showed their. Faces, yeah SO

748
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:32,919
Speaker 5: i would say bottom, five let's be, generous bottom FIVE

749
00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:36,720
Speaker 5: o line and And Derek, carr you, know, like that's

750
00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:40,720
Speaker 5: that's a recipe for, disaster And Spencer ratler is looked pretty,

751
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:44,760
Speaker 5: Good so, yeah give me. That that's my that's my bold.

752
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:47,279
Speaker 5: Call Derek, carr first quarterback bench of twenty.

753
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 1: Four, okay let's discuss a couple of public.

754
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 6: Sides top three public sides per The Action network Out

755
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:56,920
Speaker 6: we Mentioned pittsburgh. Earlier pittsburgh getting three At atlanta seventy

756
00:37:56,920 --> 00:37:58,600
Speaker 6: five percent of the.

757
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 1: Public You know'sburgh culture thoughts, there Pal.

758
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:06,160
Speaker 6: Baltimore Kansas city On, thursday seventy three percent On baltimore

759
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 6: getting three AT cac the reigning, champions And friday's game

760
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:12,880
Speaker 6: seventy three percent of the cash coming in from the.

761
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 6: Public On Green bay getting three Against. Philly raybond your, THOUGHTS.

762
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:21,279
Speaker 5: I feel like this In, evan maybe you like back

763
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:23,320
Speaker 5: me up here OR i don't know if you agree or,

764
00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:27,760
Speaker 5: disagree BUT i feel like this is the public trying

765
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:32,399
Speaker 5: to be sharp but not quite getting it because they're

766
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:37,040
Speaker 5: taking the plus threes everywhere of you, know quality teams

767
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:39,839
Speaker 5: or you, know teams with a decent shot to win

768
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 5: the game on the other, side but really you want the,

769
00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:46,319
Speaker 5: hook like these plus threes aren't really doing it for.

770
00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:48,920
Speaker 5: Me these are just kind of like all three of,

771
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:51,719
Speaker 5: THEM i look at and, say the line is more

772
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 5: or less. Correct you, know obviously it's a three point.

773
00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:57,360
Speaker 5: Spread you could make a case for the, dog BUT

774
00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 5: i think the most likely, outcome as you, know for

775
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 5: all those three, games is just the favorite wins by

776
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:08,279
Speaker 5: a field. Goal SO i think the public is like

777
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:11,439
Speaker 5: on the right, track but they're not really getting any

778
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:13,719
Speaker 5: value like you should be looking. For you, know those

779
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:15,760
Speaker 5: three and a, half those four four and a half

780
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:17,239
Speaker 5: like The titans come to.

781
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:19,080
Speaker 3: Mind SO i don't, know what do you.

782
00:39:19,120 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 2: THINK i love the, hooks So i'm completely with. YOU

783
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:24,719
Speaker 2: i will say this the three games, though none of

784
00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 2: them AND i just look quickly have hit the hook

785
00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:30,759
Speaker 2: at all in the. Office so and right, now of

786
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:33,759
Speaker 2: the three, games they're all on. Three AND i THINK

787
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:35,759
Speaker 2: i would see at least looking at the, numbers So

788
00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:38,320
Speaker 2: casey's minus one oh, two you might see two and

789
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 2: a half in that. One SO i don't. Know, necessarily

790
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:46,280
Speaker 2: maybe Green bay would get to three and a, half

791
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 2: BUT i think the other two. Wouldn't dare SO i

792
00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:51,239
Speaker 2: think it's a little bit of a stag. STALEMATE i

793
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 2: also think you've got two of those games. Happening, first

794
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:59,959
Speaker 2: they're like the primetime, games and everyone kind of wants

795
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 2: the points in those.

796
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 5: Games yeah, Yeah i'm, like, Why, yeah the public doesn't

797
00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:07,800
Speaker 5: usually take, dogs and but you know THAT i think

798
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:10,240
Speaker 5: a lot because we talk about you, know the public

799
00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 5: and you, know being contrarian and tends to be more.

800
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:17,920
Speaker 5: Profitable but, remember don't get that conflated with like there's

801
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:19,880
Speaker 5: it has no effect on what happens on the. Field

802
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:22,640
Speaker 5: like what it's gonna happen is gonna, happen, Right but

803
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 5: it's weird to see the, public you, know seventy plus

804
00:40:26,680 --> 00:40:28,959
Speaker 5: percent on three dogs even in a given.

805
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 3: Week you, know like you can always see that.

806
00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:34,399
Speaker 5: Period BUT i feel like there's a comfort thing, Here,

807
00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:37,960
Speaker 5: evan where they look at these lines at three and

808
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 5: the fact that it hasn't moved to three and a.

809
00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:44,440
Speaker 5: HALF i think it actually makes some, uh casual and

810
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:46,680
Speaker 5: newer better is more comfortable because they're, like you, know

811
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 5: this is a you, know this is supposed to be

812
00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:51,439
Speaker 5: a close. GAME i could see the dog winning, here

813
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:53,560
Speaker 5: whereas let it it gets to three and a, half

814
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:56,239
Speaker 5: it feels like the favorite's kind of pulling. Away it's

815
00:40:56,280 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 5: favorite it's a little too. Good you, know the dog

816
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:02,080
Speaker 5: isn't projected to keep it within a field. GOAL i don't,

817
00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:04,920
Speaker 5: Know SO i feel, like, uh this is kind of

818
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:07,920
Speaker 5: playing right into the books hands, here, uh you, know

819
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 5: with the with all the public on these dogs at you,

820
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:14,400
Speaker 5: know at three not getting the hook because THEY i

821
00:41:14,440 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 5: feel like they're more likely to just to push or

822
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 5: the favorites just gonna cover.

823
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:26,319
Speaker 2: Correct interesting, Though so we'll see how the week. Progresses all, Right,

824
00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:27,080
Speaker 2: FELLAS i think that's.

825
00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 1: It this Was this was. Fun we worked a lot

826
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:29,440
Speaker 1: of stuff.

827
00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:30,160
Speaker 2: In this is.

828
00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:35,040
Speaker 1: Great all, Right, raybon thanks for sounding. Sucks we were

829
00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:37,480
Speaker 1: gonna hit on coaching being, fired BUT i think we all, agreed.

830
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:42,239
Speaker 3: DEFINITELY i wonder how that would have.

831
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:45,920
Speaker 6: Went, No.

832
00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:49,800
Speaker 3: Chris Rabel.

833
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:52,000
Speaker 6: On our guest for week one next week will Be

834
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:55,080
Speaker 6: Brandon anderson and For evan uh and you'll put up

835
00:41:55,080 --> 00:41:57,000
Speaker 6: with me again next. Week so our first episode OF

836
00:41:57,080 --> 00:42:01,319
Speaker 6: Nfl roundtable going into week. One so next week we join.

837
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:03,240
Speaker 1: You we'll record Next, Tuesday september.

838
00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:06,640
Speaker 6: Tenth we'll actually have games to talk about and we'll

839
00:42:06,800 --> 00:42:09,560
Speaker 6: overreact the shit out of, them.

840
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:11,000
Speaker 2: So it'll be.

841
00:42:11,040 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 1: Great thanks To Evan As.

842
00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:16,000
Speaker 6: Raybon, YEAH i mean being honest For Evan, Abrams Chris,

843
00:42:16,040 --> 00:42:18,440
Speaker 6: Raybon Brdy. Glashian thanks for tuning in episode one OF

844
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 6: Nfl roundtable here on The Action network Podcast We'll.

845
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:40,200
Speaker 1: See Action network reminds you please gamble.

846
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:43,800
Speaker 6: Responsibly if you or someone you care about has a gambling,

847
00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:46,960
Speaker 6: problem help is available twenty four to seven at one

848
00:42:47,000 --> 00:42:48,000
Speaker 6: eight hundred gambler