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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Wednesday morning episode of

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Speaker 2: the Dally Juice Podcast with me Matt Parolt at Sports

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Speaker 2: Talk Matt to follow me across all socials.

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Speaker 1: This pod always being brought to you by our friends

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Speaker 1: at Olma Steaks dot com.

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Speaker 2: With the semiannual sale going on right now, Promoco Juice

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Speaker 2: out all the great deals with their semiannual sale going

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Speaker 2: on right now at Omaha Steaks dot com.

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Speaker 1: All right, so betting is a pain in the neck.

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Speaker 2: You know, you go five and oh you hit five

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Speaker 2: straight one unit bets and then you turn around and

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Speaker 2: you miss all three bets. In baseball, this is the

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Speaker 2: grind of Major League Baseball. But here's how it's kind

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Speaker 2: of going to go. Wednesday will be this will be

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Speaker 2: an all baseball day, but Tomorrow obviously will not. Tomorrow

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Speaker 2: will be combed football and NFL football on a Thursday,

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Speaker 2: even though the games are horrific.

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Speaker 1: We'll get into it tomorrow for the podcast.

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Speaker 2: Friday will be college football, Saturday will be college football,

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Speaker 2: Sunday will be NFL football, and then Monday will come

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Speaker 2: back to baseball. The Diamondbacks won Game one, okay, so

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Speaker 2: that's good news for us because we have the plus

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Speaker 2: one fifty four bet going on the Dbacks to win

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Speaker 2: the series.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna watch this a little bit and.

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Speaker 2: See how it plays out, and if the Brewers win today,

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Speaker 2: there's a Game three we might get involved. I'm very

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Speaker 2: hesitant to get involved with this game because of what

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Speaker 2: we got writing with both the d Backs and the

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Speaker 2: Brewers with the twenty one to one bet, so I

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Speaker 2: don't want to get in the way of the half

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Speaker 2: a unit profit that we could be making here if

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Speaker 2: the d Backs win today. It is Zach Galen. Zach

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Speaker 2: Galen owns the Brewers. He's two and zero with an

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Speaker 2: six ERA, a one thirty three opposing batting average, and

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Speaker 2: he beat them back on June twenty first, beat him

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Speaker 2: five to one. He went seven, gave up one earned

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Speaker 2: run in Milwaukee. So even though his road ERA is

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Speaker 2: not very good, he's pitched very well in this ballpark.

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Speaker 2: And look, they use their bullpen a lot. The Diamondbacks

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Speaker 2: need Zach Gallen to go deep here. And they faced

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Speaker 2: the best two pitchers for the Brewers yesterday and they

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Speaker 2: scored on both of them and they won the game

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Speaker 2: six to three. The game went over. So I don't

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Speaker 2: know what I'm doing yet. I might go first five,

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Speaker 2: I might go game over. I don't know yet. I've

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Speaker 2: got two bets I'm gonna give you here. That's the

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Speaker 2: bet I don't know about. But hopefully the hedging situation

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Speaker 2: makes sense to you now because now we're dealing with

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Speaker 2: a lot less plus money.

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Speaker 1: But I mean, I haven't.

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Speaker 2: Seen the latest price here. Let's see is the latest

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Speaker 2: price out for this? I have to go check out

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Speaker 2: too in the price I haven't seen the price for

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Speaker 2: I just know the dive Backs aren't gonna be plus

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Speaker 2: one fifty four. Okay, we had the best price, and

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Speaker 2: they're going to be favorites to win the series, most

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Speaker 2: likely win one game of the next two for them

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Speaker 2: to advance winning game one and the best of three.

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Speaker 2: It is absolutely massive, completely and totally massive. So I

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Speaker 2: will put something in the Discord channel bettingpros dot Com

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Speaker 2: slash chat to figure out what I'm doing here, either

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Speaker 2: on bet in that game or I will bet I

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Speaker 2: don't know that. There's a couple of plays I'm looking at.

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Speaker 2: There's a couple of things I'm thinking about for tomorrow

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Speaker 2: that I'm not entirely comfortable with. I haven't bet yet

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Speaker 2: because the two bets I have made I like a lot,

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Speaker 2: and I think there's real value on them, and I don't.

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Speaker 2: I might just hold with two, but I might I

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Speaker 2: might have three. I mean I'll probably have three, just

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Speaker 2: given normally what I look at, I may have three.

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Speaker 2: It just depends.

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Speaker 1: I have a raise bet.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna give you. I have a Phillies Marlins bet

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Speaker 2: I want to give you. I do I lean towards

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Speaker 2: the Twins to win and wrap their series up with Toronto.

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Speaker 2: I thought they had to win that. I thought Toronto

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Speaker 2: had to win that game. Gray going for the Twins

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Speaker 2: is monster.

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Speaker 1: So I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I I do kind of lean towards Minnesota.

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Speaker 1: So maybe I might gimp jump in on that. I

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Speaker 1: don't know.

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Speaker 2: I'll have a third bet for you, guys. Let's talk

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Speaker 2: about the bets I have made. It is Zach Efflin

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Speaker 2: Day at home for the Toronto for the Tampa Bay Rays,

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Speaker 2: man alive. The Rangers are in real trouble. They gotta

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Speaker 2: throw Nathan Vivaldi. They're a mess. The way that they

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Speaker 2: back their way into the playoffs just not the way

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Speaker 2: you want to go in. And I mean, you know

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Speaker 2: they got the win yesterday. Okay, huge to get that

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Speaker 2: win yesterday, but I don't like the way their pitching

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Speaker 2: steff is set up today. And I think the Rays

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Speaker 2: are gonna win this game. I just don't want to

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Speaker 2: lay the mist one fifty price on it. I can

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Speaker 2: go first five instead. Zach Efflin has a three point

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Speaker 2: three zero ERA at home eleven and four on the year,

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Speaker 2: two thirty eight posing batting average. He has not faced

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Speaker 2: Texas yet this season, however, but eight straight starts for him,

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Speaker 2: he's gone five innings or more, with the team going

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Speaker 2: seven and one in those starts. Since the return for

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Speaker 2: Nathan Valdi, he has gone twenty in a third innings

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Speaker 2: and given up twenty one earned runs in seven home

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Speaker 2: runs since coming off the DL IL not great three

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Speaker 2: point five to six overall ERA on the road six

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Speaker 2: and two, but he's never gone more than five innings

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Speaker 2: in Sorry, he's only gone five innings in two times

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Speaker 2: this year since coming back three and a third, he's

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Speaker 2: gone two times on the road. The two road starts,

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Speaker 2: so how long will Nathan.

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Speaker 1: Valdi really go?

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Speaker 2: And then you're gonna go into the bullpen for the Rangers,

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Speaker 2: which is not good. Now, Look, Chapman pitched very well yesterday.

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Speaker 2: The bullpen came in, looked pretty good for the Rangers.

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Speaker 2: But once you get in some different arms, you got

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Speaker 2: guys coming into the middle innings that's really bad, like

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Speaker 2: third or fourth or fifth inning, that's really bad. I

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Speaker 2: feel like the Rays are gonna have their hitting shoes

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Speaker 2: on here early to tee off on Avaldi and Eflyn's

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Speaker 2: just so dynamic.

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Speaker 1: At home it's minus one thirty eight.

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Speaker 2: I got this at FanDuel last night, first five money line,

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Speaker 2: meaning if it's tied after five, our bet pushes.

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Speaker 1: Okay, now the three way.

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Speaker 2: If it's tied after five, we push minus one thirty eight.

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Speaker 1: Tampa at home.

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Speaker 2: Zach Efflin on the mound, first five money line, just

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Speaker 2: be winning after five innings.

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Speaker 1: Halfway through.

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Speaker 2: Fandel's got this for you with the Rays verse five

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Speaker 2: minus one thirty eight, one point three to eight units

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Speaker 2: down on that second bet. Philly's and the Marlins FanDuel

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Speaker 2: at the time of taping, I posted this in the

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Speaker 2: Discord channel. FanDuel was the only book to have a

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Speaker 2: number of eight and a half. Everybody else is at eight.

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Speaker 2: This number opened up at seven and a half. When

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Speaker 2: I up to eight, up to eight and a half.

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Speaker 2: Maybe we're going over on this, but I'm going under

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Speaker 2: and look at Maybe I was dead wrong with the

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Speaker 2: over yesterday play I had one over and two money

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Speaker 2: lines missed. Both money lines missed the over. Maybe I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna be wrong about the rays and I'm gonna be

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Speaker 2: wrong about this. This is just the way baseball betting goes.

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Speaker 2: When it comes to me, I'm not guaranteeing anything. Okay,

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Speaker 2: this is I don't like betting baseball for this reason

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Speaker 2: because you just you go into it, you can do

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Speaker 2: all the research, you can find your way, and then

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Speaker 2: nothing goes the way that you think it's going to go.

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Speaker 1: It's the most.

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Speaker 2: Frustrating grind sport to bet. But I'm not betting college

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Speaker 2: football tonight. There's just the teams are awful, the games

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Speaker 2: are horrendous. I know more about pitching in baseball than

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Speaker 2: I do about what's happening on college football for this coming,

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Speaker 2: you know, for tonight. So I'm looking for angles FanDuel

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Speaker 2: with at eight and a half. Now there might be

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Speaker 2: some books that will go to eight and a half,

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Speaker 2: but I think we might go back down. I mean

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Speaker 2: some books like DraftKings is at eight minus one fifteen

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Speaker 2: to the over. Some places offshore are eight minus one

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Speaker 2: fifteen to the under. You've got some eight flats Caesars

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Speaker 2: eight flat, South point eight flat, Circa's at seven and

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Speaker 2: a half at minus one twenty. Do you want to

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Speaker 2: bet over there? You could actually arb this if you want.

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Speaker 2: I've got eight and a half for FanDuel you can

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Speaker 2: bet and I bet under eight and a half. You

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Speaker 2: can bet over seven and a half at Circa if

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Speaker 2: you can get access to that. So if the falls eight,

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Speaker 2: you win both bets. You can do that if you want,

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Speaker 2: just different ways of playing it if you want. But

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Speaker 2: the Marlins are forty four thirty five and one to

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Speaker 2: the under on the road this year, and it's Braxton

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Speaker 2: Garrett who was a two point eight five ERA six

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Speaker 2: and three on the road with a two point twenty

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Speaker 2: four ERA. He pitched well on the road at the

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Speaker 2: end of the year as well. The Phillies at home

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Speaker 2: they're actually an under team, you know. I guess flat

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Speaker 2: thirty seven, thirty six and eight to the under this year,

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Speaker 2: so kind of flat. But Nola three three point twenty

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Speaker 2: nine ERA six and three record with a two point

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Speaker 2: with a two point one two e er. I think

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Speaker 2: under eight and a half, I think the Marlins aren't

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Speaker 2: gonna score a lot of runs here. And if Nola's

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Speaker 2: great and that bullpen comes in and pitches the way

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Speaker 2: they pitched last night, that atmosphere is so difficult for

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Speaker 2: these baby Marlins. I underestimated the Phillies. Underestimated the Phillies' abilities,

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Speaker 2: and I underestimated just what they look like at home.

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Speaker 2: It's a really hard place to play in the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: I forgot about that last night. I didn't take that

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Speaker 2: into nearly account into my handicap as much as I

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Speaker 2: should have. I think the Phillies do win the game,

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Speaker 2: but I'm gonna take the under because if the Marlins

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Speaker 2: do in the game, it's a three two baseball game, Okay,

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Speaker 2: It's just a grinder of a game under eight and

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Speaker 2: a half at minus one twenty for one point two units.

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Speaker 2: Like I said, you can try to RB this if

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Speaker 2: you want. With Circa, who's at seven and a half.

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Speaker 2: But I think there's a there's a good chance this

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Speaker 2: game will stay under kind of surprise. The first move

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Speaker 2: if you think you know Circa is a sharp book

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Speaker 2: open at eight, first moves to the under at seven.

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Speaker 1: And a half.

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Speaker 2: So to give you an idea with Braxton Garrett on

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Speaker 2: the mound in the fact of the Marlins offense is

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Speaker 2: not that potent right now, we're going under eight and

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Speaker 2: a half, one point two units down. Okay, So I

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Speaker 2: will have a third bet in the Discord channel most likely,

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Speaker 2: but you got to be in there bettingpros dot Com

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Speaker 2: slash chat to get access to it. First five rays

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Speaker 2: money line first five at minus one thirty eight for

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Speaker 2: one point three eight units. Fan Duel had that here tonight,

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Speaker 2: and we're going under eight and a half for the

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Speaker 2: game for the Marlins and the Phillies at minus one

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Speaker 2: twenty for one point two units.

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Speaker 1: To jump in with that.

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Speaker 2: All right, more to come in the Discord channel later today,

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Speaker 2: but for now, those are the two bets going on

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Speaker 2: a Wednesday Mius Matt Paroltz follow me on Twitter, following

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Speaker 2: me on socials at Sports Talk Matt. Each and every

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Speaker 2: single morning the Diligence Podcast, I was being brought to

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Speaker 2: you by Omaha steakes dot com