WEBVTT - This Business Strategy Could Outpace Bitcoin Quicker Than You Think | Brandon Quittem 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:02.760 There's nothing better than bitcoin in your gold storage. It 0:00:02.759 --> 0:00:05.240 has the best risk adjusted return. That should be the 0:00:05.280 --> 0:00:08.000 foundation of anyone's portfolio. If you want to take some 0:00:08.000 --> 0:00:11.360 additional risk, then you should explore the treasury companies and 0:00:11.480 --> 0:00:15.600 attempt to outperform bitcoin. Capital is trapped under different mandates. 0:00:15.920 --> 0:00:18.760 Those trap pools the capital have no way of getting 0:00:18.840 --> 0:00:22.079 some of that upside. Michael Saylor accumulates bitcoin on his 0:00:22.200 --> 0:00:26.360 balance sheet so that he can create securities that fulfill 0:00:26.440 --> 0:00:29.880 the mandate of that trapped capital. He sells those securities 0:00:30.120 --> 0:00:33.559 and he's bringing new capital, which ultimately lands in bitcoin 0:00:33.800 --> 0:00:35.599 from those trap capital pools. 0:00:35.920 --> 0:00:38.239 Do you think the good companies will be able to 0:00:38.360 --> 0:00:41.840 outpace bitcoin over a long term? And when I say 0:00:41.840 --> 0:00:43.720 long term, call it five years. 0:00:44.360 --> 0:00:45.280 Yeah, I think that's right. 0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:48.640 Hey, Brandon, thanks for joining me today. It's been a 0:00:48.640 --> 0:00:50.640 while since we've got to sit down and do a recording. 0:00:50.680 --> 0:00:52.080 I'm super excited to jump in here. 0:00:52.800 --> 0:00:55.160 Likewise, what was the last time Mark? Was it live 0:00:55.200 --> 0:00:57.400 in LA a couple of years ago? Is that the 0:00:57.480 --> 0:00:58.760 last time we recorded together? 0:01:00.600 --> 0:01:02.440 That is a good question. I should have gone and looked. 0:01:02.880 --> 0:01:05.280 I did see one as I was going through from 0:01:05.319 --> 0:01:08.200 like I think four years ago that we had a recording. 0:01:08.280 --> 0:01:10.640 I think we were talking about I think the Fourth 0:01:10.680 --> 0:01:14.800 Turning four years ago, but so much has changed since then, 0:01:15.120 --> 0:01:18.839 and I would say the whole direction of the world 0:01:18.880 --> 0:01:22.280 has changed since then. You know, the Fourth Turning was 0:01:22.280 --> 0:01:24.559 a hot topic four years ago. I was talking about 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:27.679 the cycles and the decentralization, and I think it was 0:01:27.680 --> 0:01:32.360 a super important message at that time. For right now, though, 0:01:32.520 --> 0:01:36.600 I just see massive change, but so much hope and 0:01:36.640 --> 0:01:39.120 prosperity on that side. I'm curious if your sort of 0:01:39.200 --> 0:01:41.959 worldview has shifted since where we were four years ago. 0:01:43.400 --> 0:01:46.640 Yeah, I think it definitely has. When we recorded last 0:01:46.720 --> 0:01:49.000 let's call it twenty twenty one, we're in the thick 0:01:49.040 --> 0:01:53.480 of the COVID tyranny stuff. I was genuinely disenchanted by 0:01:53.520 --> 0:01:57.000 my fellow American at the time. I thought we stood 0:01:57.080 --> 0:02:00.280 up for individual rights and sovereignty and we went just 0:02:00.360 --> 0:02:03.440 do whatever we're told. And yet I flashed back to 0:02:03.480 --> 0:02:05.920 that period. I remember I was living in Minneapolis at 0:02:05.960 --> 0:02:08.280 the time. I remember my neighbor calling the cops on 0:02:08.360 --> 0:02:10.640 my other neighbor because they had too many cars in 0:02:10.680 --> 0:02:14.600 the driveway for some holiday or birthday or something, and 0:02:14.680 --> 0:02:17.760 that really set me off, and it ultimately led to 0:02:17.800 --> 0:02:20.000 me finding the fourth Turning and trying to make sense 0:02:20.000 --> 0:02:22.440 of this whole thing. And now that we're sort of 0:02:22.480 --> 0:02:25.960 through the fog of war, I would like to believe 0:02:26.120 --> 0:02:29.560 society learned something from that, but I honestly don't think 0:02:29.600 --> 0:02:33.320 the average person did. But what gives me optimism now 0:02:33.480 --> 0:02:36.560 is that it feels like Bitcoin's time is really coming. 0:02:37.000 --> 0:02:40.680 It's clearly being financialized, it's clearly being accepted by the 0:02:40.720 --> 0:02:43.760 political party in the US, at least for now, and 0:02:43.840 --> 0:02:46.760 I think that puts a lot of It gives bitcoin 0:02:46.800 --> 0:02:48.679 a lot of runway, and it will give us a 0:02:48.800 --> 0:02:50.679 chance to get out really far ahead of this thing. 0:02:50.760 --> 0:02:53.760 So even if the political tides turn in the future, 0:02:54.080 --> 0:02:57.680 I think Bitcoin is sufficiently too big, too entrench nothing 0:02:57.680 --> 0:03:00.880 can stop this thing. And so while we have Paul 0:03:01.080 --> 0:03:03.680 today telling us that the two percent inflation is no 0:03:03.760 --> 0:03:07.800 longer a target, markets react positively, obviously, So we have 0:03:08.000 --> 0:03:10.920 Fiat with nothing stops his train, and we have Bitcoin 0:03:10.960 --> 0:03:14.600 getting adopted in larger and larger scales. So that's pretty 0:03:14.600 --> 0:03:15.240 cool to see. 0:03:15.840 --> 0:03:17.640 Yeah, I haven't got a chance to catch up on 0:03:17.680 --> 0:03:20.240 what he said this morning, but I did just pop 0:03:20.280 --> 0:03:22.359 on to Twitter for like a split second to check 0:03:22.360 --> 0:03:24.919 a message, and I see a post from Lynn Alden 0:03:25.120 --> 0:03:26.920 and she said if you missed if you missed her 0:03:26.960 --> 0:03:30.040 own Palell speech. He basically said, nothing stopped his train. 0:03:30.880 --> 0:03:32.520 I was like, Okay, that's all I need to know. 0:03:33.639 --> 0:03:35.800 And I see the price of bitcoin and everything else 0:03:36.280 --> 0:03:40.480 going back up quite a bit. So one thing I 0:03:40.480 --> 0:03:42.280 think that's important to kind of catch up on is 0:03:42.320 --> 0:03:45.320 the different facets that we've sort of seen bitcoin go 0:03:45.440 --> 0:03:48.520 through as it's growing up, as it's advancing. You mentioned 0:03:48.560 --> 0:03:52.720 the political headwinds have shifted now to maybe tailwinds. Sort 0:03:52.760 --> 0:03:56.440 of Bitcoin has gotten to where it's at in spite 0:03:56.560 --> 0:03:59.800 of all the headwinds that it's had from Operation Choke 0:03:59.800 --> 0:04:03.240 Point to you know, Elizabeth Warren's anti crypto army, to 0:04:03.280 --> 0:04:05.640 all of those things, and now that that headwind has 0:04:05.680 --> 0:04:09.560 turned into a tailwind politically, which has then seemed to 0:04:09.680 --> 0:04:13.520 bring a lot of the institutional money, the Wall Street 0:04:13.560 --> 0:04:15.840 money maybe waiting for that sort of all clear is 0:04:15.840 --> 0:04:19.520 from this regulatory front. That's how I see it. Anyway, 0:04:19.720 --> 0:04:21.599 how are you framing up where we're at with the 0:04:21.600 --> 0:04:24.200 bitcoin price now here breaking new all time highs, the 0:04:24.560 --> 0:04:25.960 political wins where they are. 0:04:27.560 --> 0:04:29.680 Yeah, I think that's right. I think the big watershed 0:04:29.720 --> 0:04:33.800 moment was the ETF getting approved, and so Grayscale won 0:04:33.839 --> 0:04:37.080 that case, which essentially made the way for the ETFs. 0:04:37.279 --> 0:04:40.599 Those were obviously the most successful ETFs of all time. 0:04:41.320 --> 0:04:44.520 They continue to be net accumulators. And we have the 0:04:44.560 --> 0:04:49.040 Trump administration signaling gas pedal for the industry, and so 0:04:49.240 --> 0:04:51.760 you pair those two things together and it's essentially as 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:54.560 d risk as you can possibly get. Maybe you sprinkle 0:04:54.600 --> 0:04:58.320 a little Larry Fink being a bitcoin spokesman spokesman on 0:04:58.360 --> 0:05:01.560 top of that, and yeah, clearly the conditions have changed. 0:05:01.800 --> 0:05:05.720 We're seeing Wall Street respond, We're starting to see pension funds, 0:05:05.839 --> 0:05:09.400 Harvard Universities, some other marquee names taking a bite out 0:05:09.400 --> 0:05:11.839 of this thing. And so, yeah, it's very clear the 0:05:11.839 --> 0:05:14.240 tides have shifted. And if we look at this the 0:05:14.320 --> 0:05:18.720 price over this recent time period, bitcoin is not operating 0:05:18.800 --> 0:05:20.920 like it normally does in a bowl market. With these 0:05:21.040 --> 0:05:26.719 exponential moves thirty ish plus percent declines hopefully rebase and 0:05:26.800 --> 0:05:29.839 run up again. We're seeing a very different market structure. 0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:33.719 We're seeing little pops to reprice and then we're seeing 0:05:33.720 --> 0:05:37.680 this really boring crab market period as old investors selling 0:05:37.680 --> 0:05:41.120 out and new investors coming in, everyone gets bored, and 0:05:41.120 --> 0:05:43.320 then we have another little pop and we chill out 0:05:43.360 --> 0:05:46.080 after that. And so to me, it seems pretty clear 0:05:46.120 --> 0:05:49.400 that something has changed. I don't know if if we're 0:05:49.440 --> 0:05:51.679 ever going to have another eighty percent bear market again, 0:05:52.400 --> 0:05:56.240 if we continue this slow climb stair stepping climb, I 0:05:56.240 --> 0:05:58.880 don't think we will. However, if we do reach some 0:05:58.960 --> 0:06:01.320 sort of a mania Piero, let's say, in the next year, 0:06:01.360 --> 0:06:04.320 and bitcoin really goes parabolic, I think we will have 0:06:04.320 --> 0:06:05.840 at least a fifty percent correction. 0:06:06.400 --> 0:06:09.080 Yeah, it seems like if you look at a long 0:06:09.160 --> 0:06:11.560 term chart of bitcoin, it's like the line in the 0:06:11.600 --> 0:06:14.080 sand is sort of when the ETFs got launched, and 0:06:14.120 --> 0:06:16.599 since the rise of the ETFs, it sort of seems 0:06:16.640 --> 0:06:18.360 like a lot of that volatility has come out of 0:06:18.400 --> 0:06:21.720 the market. So maybe it's that there's such a long 0:06:21.800 --> 0:06:25.640 standing sustained bid for bitcoin that it just isn't allowed 0:06:25.680 --> 0:06:28.119 to sort of get those twenty five or thirty percent drops, 0:06:28.120 --> 0:06:29.760 as you said, because that bid is there. 0:06:31.040 --> 0:06:32.719 Yeah, I think that's exactly right. I think there's a 0:06:32.760 --> 0:06:36.920 sustained bid from larger players. They know they need a position. 0:06:37.080 --> 0:06:40.120 They're accumulating. Any dips are getting bought up, and I 0:06:40.160 --> 0:06:42.360 think we'll see that for some time. If you look 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:45.680 at the market cap of bitcoin compared to let's say 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:49.080 there's one thousand trillion dollars in total assets in bitcoin's 0:06:49.080 --> 0:06:52.120 two point five or something like that, this is a 0:06:52.279 --> 0:06:55.920 giant whale we're going after, and Bitcoin's still a minno relatively, 0:06:56.200 --> 0:06:59.479 so I do expect those institutional flows to continue, and 0:06:59.520 --> 0:07:01.760 we have a lot way to go there. Now. One 0:07:01.800 --> 0:07:04.880 thing that's very unique that I'm noticing in my personal 0:07:04.920 --> 0:07:08.200 life is that retail does not seem to be woken 0:07:08.320 --> 0:07:11.080 up yet. They're not coming back in large numbers. I'm 0:07:11.120 --> 0:07:14.679 getting a few messages from contacts, but it's pretty quiet 0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:18.360 compared to twenty twenty one or twenty seventeen. Are you 0:07:18.400 --> 0:07:18.960 seeing the same? 0:07:19.760 --> 0:07:22.040 I would say, I would say I'm seeing about the same. 0:07:22.040 --> 0:07:22.400 You're right. 0:07:22.440 --> 0:07:24.760 I mean, typically when it starts breaking out, making new 0:07:24.800 --> 0:07:27.120 all time highs, contacts you haven't heard from in years 0:07:27.320 --> 0:07:29.760 start coming and sending your messages, asking you, you know, 0:07:29.800 --> 0:07:31.640 how they can get in, if now's the time to buy, 0:07:31.720 --> 0:07:34.040 should they wait? Those types of things, And I would 0:07:34.120 --> 0:07:38.080 say those have been a little light right now. Maybe 0:07:38.080 --> 0:07:40.360 it's because we've been hovering around this one hundred thousand 0:07:40.400 --> 0:07:42.960 dollars mark for quite a while, so maybe you know, 0:07:43.080 --> 0:07:45.920 we had one hundred and twenty, it's not that much higher. 0:07:47.160 --> 0:07:49.440 It's the law of large numbers, right, It's like the 0:07:49.520 --> 0:07:52.080 numbers have gotten so much larger that getting one hundred 0:07:52.200 --> 0:07:54.160 hundred and twenty like what's the big deal kind of 0:07:54.160 --> 0:07:56.800 a thing. So maybe that's it, but I would agree 0:07:56.800 --> 0:07:59.480 with that. I'm curious what your take is. I mean, 0:07:59.560 --> 0:08:02.960 between the ETFs, as you said, like this this sustained bid. 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:05.760 Now we have the rise of the bitcoin corporations, the 0:08:05.760 --> 0:08:08.800 big win treasury companies acquiring you know, we've seen it 0:08:08.840 --> 0:08:14.880 looks like five to ten times more demand than the 0:08:14.920 --> 0:08:20.320 new incoming like mining supply. So I guess number one 0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:23.120 the big question that everybody has is if there's all 0:08:23.200 --> 0:08:28.120 this buying and it's outstripping supply by that much, why 0:08:28.200 --> 0:08:29.520 hasn't the price moved more? 0:08:30.880 --> 0:08:33.480 Yeah, that's the million dollar question. You see this all 0:08:33.520 --> 0:08:36.080 over Twitter. You see all the analysts bringing this up. 0:08:36.720 --> 0:08:39.720 And I think I would draw from James check who 0:08:39.720 --> 0:08:42.760 writes a newsletter check on Chain. I think he's one 0:08:42.800 --> 0:08:46.360 of the top on chain analysts and people have opinions 0:08:46.400 --> 0:08:48.320 about this, but I think there's some value here to 0:08:48.360 --> 0:08:51.560 be added in your analysis. And what James Check notices 0:08:51.760 --> 0:08:55.520 is that we are seeing old, large whales that have 0:08:55.600 --> 0:08:58.960 held their coins for a very long time finally taking 0:08:59.000 --> 0:09:02.200 some meaningful profits. And you might say, why would you 0:09:02.240 --> 0:09:05.200 do that? Bitcoins maybe the best time ever to buy 0:09:05.240 --> 0:09:07.640 from a risk adjusted return, why would they do that? 0:09:08.040 --> 0:09:10.040 But if you're sitting on one hundred million or a 0:09:10.080 --> 0:09:13.400 billion dollars in unrealized gains, maybe you want to upgrade 0:09:13.440 --> 0:09:16.160 your life a little bit. And I think that's pretty reasonable. 0:09:16.559 --> 0:09:19.280 I also think it's healthy for these coins to change 0:09:19.320 --> 0:09:22.520 hand and not move the price very much. If you 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:24.360 remember that giant cell that I. 0:09:24.280 --> 0:09:27.959 Think Galaxy executed that Galaxy. 0:09:27.679 --> 0:09:30.400 Yeah, Galaxy, excuse that eighty million or I forgot the 0:09:30.480 --> 0:09:30.760 number of. 0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:33.319 Eighty thousand bitcoin. I believe it was like nine billion dollars. 0:09:33.720 --> 0:09:36.520 There you go, it's way off. Move the market maybe 0:09:36.520 --> 0:09:38.880 three percent that day, came back up the next day. 0:09:38.920 --> 0:09:42.840 That's extremely bullish, and so the bid is there. We're 0:09:42.880 --> 0:09:46.120 recycling investors. This is all healthy, and this is how 0:09:46.200 --> 0:09:48.520 we could see a world where we don't see another 0:09:48.559 --> 0:09:52.160 eighty percent draw down. Instead, we're more correlated to M 0:09:52.200 --> 0:09:55.319 two growth or general macro conditions. 0:09:55.640 --> 0:09:59.240 Yeah, back in the day, when I first got into 0:09:59.240 --> 0:10:02.040 bitcoin twenty five ten, twenty sixteen, then I thought, well, 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:04.439 it's not bitcoin, it's the blockchain. So then I'm into 0:10:04.480 --> 0:10:07.280 the different crypto assets and I would trade these assets, 0:10:07.320 --> 0:10:11.000 and I would sit on some of these exchanges, pullin 0:10:11.200 --> 0:10:13.400 X I think, or bit tricks or whatever, and I'd 0:10:13.400 --> 0:10:15.079 sit there try and trade these things, and i'd literally 0:10:15.160 --> 0:10:18.960 watch the order books and I'd be taking the orders 0:10:19.120 --> 0:10:21.800 that were the highest, so I could move my coins 0:10:21.800 --> 0:10:24.079 without moving the market cap, without getting the slippage in 0:10:24.120 --> 0:10:27.199 the price. And today they just dumped nine billion in 0:10:27.240 --> 0:10:29.520 a single day, just like and it moves the market 0:10:29.559 --> 0:10:31.440 by a couple of points. Like I literally would like 0:10:31.520 --> 0:10:34.680 execute trade by trade by trade, you know, and just 0:10:34.720 --> 0:10:37.160 a couple of years later you can literally have nine 0:10:37.240 --> 0:10:41.200 billion or whatever it was in liquidity in a single day. Amazing, 0:10:41.240 --> 0:10:41.800 that's wild. 0:10:42.120 --> 0:10:45.680 I remember the twenty seventeen market, people were selling their 0:10:45.880 --> 0:10:50.760 kyced binance account for like twenty thousand dollars right right, 0:10:50.880 --> 0:10:52.640 just as a sign of the times. Now you can 0:10:52.679 --> 0:10:54.880 get a you can go buy the ETF on any 0:10:54.920 --> 0:10:58.520 brokerage you want. The on ramps are numerous, very easy 0:10:58.559 --> 0:11:01.400 for large volume. Times have definitely changed. 0:11:01.800 --> 0:11:02.120 Yeah. 0:11:02.280 --> 0:11:05.800 Now, when you look at the demand outstripping the supply, 0:11:06.240 --> 0:11:08.400 I mean, obviously there's always supply. I'm talking about the 0:11:08.480 --> 0:11:11.320 new supply, the new mining supply. When you look at 0:11:11.320 --> 0:11:14.120 the demand outstripping the supply by five or ten times, 0:11:15.840 --> 0:11:18.880 how much do you think this four your having cycle 0:11:19.000 --> 0:11:22.880 really matters. When the demand is already outstripping the new 0:11:22.880 --> 0:11:24.640 supply by so much, what difference does it make if 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:25.959 it drops by another fifty percent? 0:11:26.240 --> 0:11:29.720 Yeah, I think it's a good point. What people would say, 0:11:29.840 --> 0:11:32.640 let's rewind a year or two ago, is bitcoin as 0:11:32.679 --> 0:11:35.440 a having cycle every four years. We know that soon 0:11:35.480 --> 0:11:38.400 after the having cycle we see a price run. And 0:11:38.760 --> 0:11:42.319 the conclusion for most people during that period would be 0:11:42.320 --> 0:11:46.160 because the inflation is cut in half, that just cycles 0:11:46.200 --> 0:11:49.280 through the market and there's less supply being created. So 0:11:49.360 --> 0:11:53.840 if you have steady demand and less supply, price goes up. However, 0:11:54.040 --> 0:11:56.600 those were very different times. In the first four years 0:11:56.640 --> 0:12:00.120 in bitcoin's life, fifty percent of the coins were issued. 0:12:00.600 --> 0:12:03.319 This is a very large inflation rate. Next cycle, twenty 0:12:03.360 --> 0:12:06.320 five percent of the total coins were issued, Right, that's 0:12:06.360 --> 0:12:08.599 a lot of supply, and you meant you bring it 0:12:08.679 --> 0:12:11.520 up to today. We're less than two percent new issuance 0:12:11.640 --> 0:12:14.120 per year today and the next HAVING cycle will be 0:12:14.200 --> 0:12:16.520 less than one percent. And if you look at that 0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:20.120 total dollar amount like you mentioned, those are peanuts relative 0:12:20.160 --> 0:12:22.880 to average trading volume or new new buyers. However you 0:12:22.920 --> 0:12:25.040 want to look at that. And so just looking at 0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:28.520 the mining supply d dynamics, I think it has almost 0:12:28.520 --> 0:12:32.520 no impact going forward, and increasingly so each cycle. Now, 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:35.320 I think there's another bigger question here, which is was 0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:39.120 there ever actually a cycle that was catalyzed by these 0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:42.679 supply reductions? And if you look up an M two 0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:47.320 money chart relative to Bitcoin's price, Bitcoin's extremely correlated to 0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:51.200 M two meaning money printer goes burr. Where does the 0:12:51.240 --> 0:12:56.520 new money go? Bitcoin gets an unfair or outsized percentage 0:12:56.640 --> 0:13:00.600 of those new flows. And so I'm leaning to there 0:13:00.600 --> 0:13:04.840 never was a HAVING cycle. However, it's hard to say. 0:13:04.920 --> 0:13:05.840 I don't think we'll ever know. 0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:08.920 Yeah, Well, you mentioned global liquidity, and it's something that 0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:12.600 I spend an enormous amount of time watching and reporting on. 0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:14.840 I talk about it on almost every one of my videos. 0:13:15.240 --> 0:13:18.040 And I would probably agree to the point that I 0:13:18.040 --> 0:13:20.240 think you're proposing. I don't know if that's your review, 0:13:20.280 --> 0:13:22.720 but I would agree. I think the global equity cycle 0:13:23.000 --> 0:13:25.800 is the dog wagging the tail. It's not the four 0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:29.000 you're having cycle. I think Michael Howell is the goat. 0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:31.560 I subscribe I paid a subscribe to. It was newsletter. 0:13:31.559 --> 0:13:33.400 I read that Nick Body at the Bitcoin Layer they 0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:37.000 do a really good global equity cycle charts. Ral Paul 0:13:37.040 --> 0:13:38.560 of Our Real Vision does some really good ones. And 0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:40.520 it was actually Ralph Paul that sort of brought me 0:13:40.559 --> 0:13:43.480 onto this idea. So getting credit where it's due. You know, 0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:46.480 we're in a debt based monetary system, so obviously the 0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:49.200 debt always has to expand, and debt could be termed 0:13:49.240 --> 0:13:52.439 from months to up to thirty years, and so all 0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:54.600 around the world you have all these different rates of debt. 0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:57.679 And there's this really interesting phenomenon where you take a metronome, 0:13:57.679 --> 0:14:00.560 which is supposed to keep perfect time for music, and 0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:02.360 if I put like one hundred metronomes on this table 0:14:02.400 --> 0:14:04.800 and started them at all different times in a period of time, 0:14:04.800 --> 0:14:07.600 they would all sync up because of the way the 0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:10.320 table vibrates or whatever. And so you have all this 0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:13.280 debt around the world at these different terms and rates. 0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:15.480 But in two thousand and eight, when we had the 0:14:15.480 --> 0:14:20.320 Great Financial Crash, the entire world dropped rates to zero 0:14:20.360 --> 0:14:23.520 and everybody called the banker and refinanced basically, right, So 0:14:23.720 --> 0:14:27.520 all the debts got synced up. And if you look 0:14:27.520 --> 0:14:30.320 at the profile of the debt today, seventy five percent 0:14:30.360 --> 0:14:32.720 of the debt is termed between three to five years, 0:14:33.720 --> 0:14:38.480 which means four years now. That started in two thousand 0:14:38.480 --> 0:14:44.400 and eight, twenty twelve, twenty sixteen, twenty twenty, twenty twenty four, 0:14:44.720 --> 0:14:47.480 which just so happens to be the four year having cycle, 0:14:47.920 --> 0:14:50.640 which just so happens to be the four year presidential 0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:53.480 election cycle, which just so happens to be the four 0:14:53.560 --> 0:14:58.920 year business cycle, all on the same cycle. And so 0:14:58.960 --> 0:15:01.160 certainly we think about are they trying to stimulate the 0:15:01.240 --> 0:15:05.560 economy going into a presidential cycle. I mean, I saw 0:15:05.600 --> 0:15:08.280 some talk today about Jerome Powell and potentially trying to 0:15:08.280 --> 0:15:10.360 get some easy for the midterms next year. So there's 0:15:10.360 --> 0:15:14.240 certainly the four year election cycle, certainly the global liquidy cycle. 0:15:14.320 --> 0:15:16.280 So I tend to kind of think that is the 0:15:16.400 --> 0:15:19.360 dog that's wagging the tail and I remember, you know, 0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:20.760 going into the last cycle. 0:15:22.640 --> 0:15:23.880 No, this can't be the top. 0:15:23.960 --> 0:15:27.560 Michael Sailor said, all my models are destroyed. Sixty nine 0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:29.280 or wherever it was in the sixty thousand. It's not 0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:32.560 high enough. It needs to be higher. It's got to go, 0:15:32.600 --> 0:15:36.960 gotta go, gotta go. But right on point November twenty 0:15:37.000 --> 0:15:40.360 twenty one, it made it high. But it was Jerome 0:15:40.480 --> 0:15:42.760 Powell that went out on the news and said we're 0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:45.960 going to start raising rates, and he said he gave 0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:48.400 forward guidance, he said in January will raise rates, and 0:15:48.680 --> 0:15:52.120 just like that, Bitcoin and then NASDAC and then S 0:15:52.160 --> 0:15:55.680 and P five hundred drew down. So I think back 0:15:55.720 --> 0:15:57.080 to the point that you're making. You look at the 0:15:57.160 --> 0:15:59.640 M two. It was Jerome Powell coming out saying we're 0:15:59.640 --> 0:16:01.560 going to because he had said we're not even thinking 0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:03.960 about thinking about raising rates. He said, we're not going 0:16:03.960 --> 0:16:06.200 to raise rates for four years. But then he came 0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:08.480 out and said, okay, we're going to tighten, and then 0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:12.360 Bitcoin's sold off. So then the question is is Jerome 0:16:12.400 --> 0:16:14.040 Powell going to come out in November and tell us 0:16:14.080 --> 0:16:15.560 they're going to tighten and start raising rates. 0:16:17.440 --> 0:16:20.640 It's a good question I'm no fed hawk. I don't 0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:22.520 keep an eye too much day to day. I just 0:16:22.640 --> 0:16:25.640 pick up the scraps on Twitter. But his recent comments 0:16:25.680 --> 0:16:29.200 today are him signaling that the two percent's gone, two 0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:32.360 percent target's gone, and markets are screaming. So as far 0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:35.080 as I can tell, we're going to be printing until 0:16:35.120 --> 0:16:38.680 further notice. And if so, Bitcoin's going to do extremely well. 0:16:39.520 --> 0:16:42.400 I mean, I just think about Trump seems to kind 0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:46.120 of get his way. He's been banging on Fed chair 0:16:46.240 --> 0:16:48.440 Powell to lower rates. He wants them down like three 0:16:48.440 --> 0:16:51.000 and a half points. And if he doesn't get Powell 0:16:51.000 --> 0:16:54.520 to drop him either way, Powell's gone next year and 0:16:54.560 --> 0:16:56.520 he'll replace him with someone who will bring. 0:16:56.400 --> 0:16:57.680 Them down three and a half points. 0:16:58.320 --> 0:17:01.840 So it was a rhetorical question, you know, and rather 0:17:01.880 --> 0:17:04.560 than Jerome Power raising rates, I mean, potentially he could 0:17:04.560 --> 0:17:06.920 before he's gone, but by this time next year he'll 0:17:06.960 --> 0:17:11.840 be gone. Most betting odds are that Trump will replace 0:17:11.920 --> 0:17:14.760 him with a dove and those rates are going to 0:17:14.800 --> 0:17:17.639 be down by several points, and so that changes the 0:17:17.680 --> 0:17:20.919 global equity cycle, and it changes that for your having cycle. 0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:25.399 I think I agree. If so, if we went with 0:17:25.440 --> 0:17:28.080 the four your having cycle, the market should be pretty 0:17:28.119 --> 0:17:31.359 exhausted by this time next year. But if we have 0:17:31.480 --> 0:17:36.280 some right decreases starting this year maybe next year, there's 0:17:36.280 --> 0:17:38.680 no way that the cycle will be over if we're 0:17:38.880 --> 0:17:42.159 correlating to M two. So I'm on the train selling 0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:45.399 now is crazy. Hold your bitcoin, folks. 0:17:45.880 --> 0:17:46.760 Yeah. 0:17:46.960 --> 0:17:49.439 Now, the other big phenomenon is not just do we 0:17:49.480 --> 0:17:52.560 have these ETFs buying massive amounts of bitcoin, but we 0:17:52.600 --> 0:17:55.639 also have the bitcoin treasury companies buying them. And so 0:17:55.680 --> 0:17:58.760 these are companies like Michael Saylor started Strategy micro Strategy, 0:17:58.800 --> 0:18:02.120 which is now Strategy, and they're basically leveraging public deechn 0:18:02.160 --> 0:18:05.000 equity markets to buy bitcoin. And now there's a sustained bid, 0:18:05.080 --> 0:18:07.520 not just a sustained bid, which there. 0:18:07.440 --> 0:18:09.920 Is, but a race, if you will. 0:18:10.480 --> 0:18:13.320 What's your take on that sort of situation that's been 0:18:13.320 --> 0:18:14.280 setting up in the markets. 0:18:14.760 --> 0:18:17.399 Yeah, absolutely, So I love this topic. First of all, 0:18:18.119 --> 0:18:22.000 I've been in bitcoin full time for about eight years now, 0:18:22.119 --> 0:18:24.919 and you know, you kind of go through these different 0:18:24.920 --> 0:18:27.520 periods where you're excited about bitcoin and then you kind 0:18:27.520 --> 0:18:29.520 of get bored, and then you go learn about mining 0:18:29.560 --> 0:18:31.840 and that's fun, and then you go learn about something else. 0:18:32.320 --> 0:18:36.200 And for me, treasury companies is the latest fascination and 0:18:36.280 --> 0:18:39.040 most of my mental cycles outside of work and family 0:18:39.080 --> 0:18:41.240 are going this way, and so I think it's I 0:18:41.280 --> 0:18:44.200 think it genuinely is the most exciting story in corporate 0:18:44.240 --> 0:18:48.200 finance and at least a decade, maybe generations. So it's 0:18:48.200 --> 0:18:50.760 definitely something to pay attention to. But before we go 0:18:50.800 --> 0:18:53.760 into analysis and different ways to slice this, I want 0:18:53.760 --> 0:18:56.359 to be very clear, there's nothing better than bitcoin and 0:18:56.400 --> 0:18:59.520 your cold storage. It has the best risk adjusted return. 0:18:59.600 --> 0:19:03.600 That should be the foundation of anyone's portfolio. Now, if 0:19:03.640 --> 0:19:05.879 you want to take some additional risk, and there is 0:19:05.920 --> 0:19:09.840 significant additional risk, then you should explore the treasury companies 0:19:10.000 --> 0:19:14.080 and attempt to outperform Bitcoin. Some of these absolutely will, 0:19:14.520 --> 0:19:17.960 just like Michael Saylor has shown, not all of them will. 0:19:18.320 --> 0:19:20.600 Maybe some of them will over different time periods. But 0:19:20.920 --> 0:19:24.000 point being, Bitcoin and cold swords is the foundation. Take 0:19:24.040 --> 0:19:26.360 additional risk on top of that as you see fit. 0:19:27.640 --> 0:19:32.040 That's that. So what's going on here? Okay? Capital is 0:19:32.119 --> 0:19:35.960 trapped under different mandates. You may be only able to 0:19:36.040 --> 0:19:38.879 invest in fixed income, you may be only able to 0:19:39.000 --> 0:19:43.159 invest in equities, all these different structures, right, and if 0:19:43.200 --> 0:19:46.280 you look around the world, bitcoin is the best performing asset, 0:19:46.480 --> 0:19:50.560 and those trap pools the capital have no way of 0:19:50.600 --> 0:19:53.560 getting some of that upside. And so what does Michael 0:19:53.600 --> 0:19:57.160 Saylor do. Michael Sailor accumulates bitcoin on his balance sheet 0:19:57.320 --> 0:20:01.720 so that he can create securities that fulfill the mandate 0:20:01.800 --> 0:20:04.800 of that trapped capital. He has a whole portfolio of 0:20:04.840 --> 0:20:07.200 these things now, and he packages them up for different 0:20:07.200 --> 0:20:11.040 types of investors. He sells those securities, and he's bringing 0:20:11.160 --> 0:20:15.080 new capital, which ultimately lands in Bitcoin, from those trapped 0:20:15.119 --> 0:20:18.679 capital pools. And we talked about this earlier. Bitcoin's two 0:20:18.720 --> 0:20:22.000 and a half trillion. Fixed incomes in the hundreds of trillions, 0:20:22.480 --> 0:20:25.280