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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough?

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Speaker 2: No, We're running a game so smoothe so sweet, slipid.

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Speaker 1: Sixteen, just glorious extecution, guys. All I'm looking for is

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Speaker 1: sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of the time. How

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Speaker 1: shot with that?

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Speaker 3: Shop with mind bog, buddy, and that's why you see

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Speaker 3: your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements the.

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Speaker 1: Most dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picks them. Shut up,

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Speaker 1: I'm trying. The love is left to of the wide eyed,

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Speaker 1: drilled fibus how old earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 3: Hello everybody, and welcome to Wonder Goal, the soccer betting

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Speaker 3: podcast from the Action Network. I'm your host today BJ

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Speaker 3: Cunning MLB joined co host and I need to bundo

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Speaker 3: here in a second as we take a gunt around

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Speaker 3: the round of sixteen for the Women's World Cup. But first,

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Speaker 3: as a reminder, Wonder Goal is presented by Bet three

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Speaker 3: sign up offer. Bet one dollar on any game, get

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Speaker 3: two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Must be twenty one

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Speaker 3: years older offers available in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,

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Speaker 3: and Iowa and the United States. Gambling problem please call

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Speaker 3: her text one eight hundred gambler. It's been a little

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Speaker 3: bit of a chaotic Women's World Cup here to get

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Speaker 3: to the round of sixteen. We've seen quite a few upsets.

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Speaker 3: You know, one of the tournament favorites, Germany crashed out.

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Speaker 3: You know, we can pat ourselves on the back a

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Speaker 3: little bit for the Morocco to advance ticket. You know,

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Speaker 3: me and Anthony both headed at fifty to one. But

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Speaker 3: it sets up for a very very interesting round of sixteen.

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Speaker 3: You know, teams like the United States and Spain did

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Speaker 3: not win their group, but like we thought they did.

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Speaker 3: So now it creates, you know, especially for the United States,

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Speaker 3: a great match here against Sweden. But let's set things

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Speaker 3: up before we get into all the individual matches. Here

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Speaker 3: are the future odds that are coming to us always

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Speaker 3: by our friends. At bet three sixty five. England is

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Speaker 3: now your tournament favorite at plus two to seventy five,

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Speaker 3: the United States sitting at plus four fifty, Spain as

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Speaker 3: well sitting at plus four fifty, France seven to one,

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Speaker 3: Japan eight to one, the Netherlands twelve to one, Australia

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Speaker 3: also twelve to one. Sweden still at twenty to one,

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Speaker 3: just like they were to begin the tournament. Colombia twenty

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Speaker 3: five to one, Norway sixty six to one, Denmark is

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Speaker 3: one hundred to one. Switzerland, Jamaica, and Nigeria are all

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Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty to one. In South Africa and

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Speaker 3: Morocco are both two hundred and fifty to one. And

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Speaker 3: there's only one place we can naturally start here. The

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Speaker 3: United States of America has a very very difficult match

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Speaker 3: against Sweden to open up here in the round of sixteen.

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Speaker 3: The United States is a plus one twenty favorite Sweden,

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Speaker 3: sitting at plus two to fifty with the draw at

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Speaker 3: plus two twenty, the United States is minus one seventy

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Speaker 3: five to advance, while Sweden is plus one twenty.

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Speaker 2: Five to advance at bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 3: Anthony, the United States, if you look at it through

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Speaker 3: through the you know, the non underlying lens, it looked

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Speaker 3: like they were not that great in the group stage.

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Speaker 3: They didn't dominate like everybody thought they did. Does that

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Speaker 3: manitsel manifest itself here in the round of sixteen? Are

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Speaker 3: they gonna be able to get through here it gets

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Speaker 3: Sweden or do you think they're going home?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the discourse has gotten a little crazy now.

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Speaker 1: The United States defensively was still in the round of

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Speaker 1: in the group stage. They conceded a point seven expecta

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Speaker 1: goles in the entirety of the group stage, which was

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Speaker 1: the second best number of any team. So, you know,

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Speaker 1: I don't want to overreact to you know what was

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Speaker 1: some certainly lackluster tactical displays, some really inefficient final third performances.

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Speaker 1: But it also is concerning because it's not new. These

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Speaker 1: are problems that have existed for the United States pretty

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Speaker 1: much most of Latko and Danovsky's tenure, and they haven't

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Speaker 1: really looked towards solving that problem. It's not rocket science.

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Speaker 1: But the Dutch and the Portuguese did to the United States.

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Speaker 1: They put an extra player in midfield, and the United

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Speaker 1: States was unable to keep possession. They were really unable

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Speaker 1: to sustain possession at all against Portugal, which is pretty

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Speaker 1: alarming given the talent gap between the two nations. And

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Speaker 1: you know, the bet was that when they won the ball,

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Speaker 1: they could be very efficient in score and they couldn't

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Speaker 1: they didn't create a ton of chances. They didn't create

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Speaker 1: at the level you'd expect. It was a lot of

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Speaker 1: half chances, no clear cut scoring opportunities from the center

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Speaker 1: of the penalty area. Alex Morgan was a little bit off.

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Speaker 1: Sophia Smith in the NWSL play centrally occupied zone fourteen

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Speaker 1: rats at the penalty area is so elite at bringing

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Speaker 1: the ball into the box and scoring. We saw a

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Speaker 1: little bit of that against Vietnam, but we didn't see

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Speaker 1: any of that against the Dutch. In the Portuguese she

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Speaker 1: was pretty much shifted into the wide areas, double teamed

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Speaker 1: and not really a factor. And the result of that,

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Speaker 1: you know, gave room for Rose level to do some

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Speaker 1: work in the middle. But Rose Level is now suspended

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Speaker 1: this for this matchup against Sweden. So the Swedes are

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Speaker 1: are good on set pieces. Their experience, they have players

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Speaker 1: playing at top teams in Europe. They beat the United

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Speaker 1: States three zero in the Olympics in twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 1: which I thought was the first match where I was

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Speaker 1: starting to be a little concerned long term about the

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Speaker 1: US women's national team. And everybody's heard Carly Lloyd's comments.

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Speaker 1: I think you know it can be a little overblown.

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Speaker 1: I don't think the US is like happy with the draw.

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Speaker 1: They were, you know, the postmatch stuff. But I think

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Speaker 1: that the tactical issue is one that's going to really

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Speaker 1: be difficult to solve against another earlite team. And this

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Speaker 1: is a Swedish team that's better than the Dutch, It's

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Speaker 1: better than Portugal, it has more attacking firepower. So I

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Speaker 1: think they're in real danger here of going out. And

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Speaker 1: I think this is a little close to a coin

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Speaker 1: flip that maybe the market is suggesting, and the market

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Speaker 1: has moved towards Sweden as well. US open minus one ten,

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Speaker 1: they're now plus money on the money line. They were

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Speaker 1: as high as two minus two hundred to advance, but

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Speaker 1: now down to about minus one seventy five one sixty

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Speaker 1: mentioned you can find Sweden plus one forty two advance.

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Speaker 1: I like that. I think this is relatively close to

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Speaker 1: a coin flip. US slight favorites just based on talent

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Speaker 1: and recogn and you know priors they still count for something.

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Speaker 1: But you know, Sweden did a nice job and winning

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Speaker 1: their group. They had some struggles at times, but I

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Speaker 1: think that this is gonna be a really interesting match.

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Speaker 1: I'm excited for it five am Sunday, and it'll be

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Speaker 1: really tight.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree.

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Speaker 3: So the one thing, you know, obviously the United States

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Speaker 3: talent wise is better than everybody else in the world,

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Speaker 3: but the gap, like we said before, the World Cup

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Speaker 3: is really close, and this is gonna be one of

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Speaker 3: those matches where you kind of see it. You know,

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Speaker 3: Sweden was able to rest some of their players in

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Speaker 3: the final match because they had already pretty much wrapped

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Speaker 3: up the group. You know, Rolfo sat for them, a

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Speaker 3: couple other key players sat for them to get them

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Speaker 3: rested here for this while you know, the United States,

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Speaker 3: the one thing that's been concerning for me is just

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Speaker 3: you know, obviously they've created seven point eight expected goals

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Speaker 3: in the group stage. A lot of that came against

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Speaker 3: the especially against Netherlands, which is a good comparison to

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Speaker 3: what you know, Sweden's obviously better than Netherlands, but it's

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Speaker 3: the closest comparison that we have so far in this

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Speaker 3: World Cup. I mean, the United States, even that flurry

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Speaker 3: that they had at the end, they didn't create a

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Speaker 3: shot with the next g overer point one five, like

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Speaker 3: it was just a bunch of long range chances. And

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Speaker 3: in total for the match. The United States against the

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Speaker 3: Netherlands had point nine to xtg off eighteen shots. That's

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Speaker 3: incredibly inefficient. Like you mentioned, with Rose Level not being

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Speaker 3: in the team because she's suspended now that also works

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Speaker 3: against the United States. They've obviously been just trying to

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Speaker 3: funnel the ball to Sophia Smith and it just hasn't been working.

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Speaker 3: So Sweden is also this team that can play, can

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Speaker 3: be very versatile tactically, like they don't. They're a team

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Speaker 3: that doesn't have to have the ball. They don't need

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Speaker 3: to be this like a team like Spain that needs

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Speaker 3: to have possession. They can, they can sit deep, and

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Speaker 3: they can counter, and they have very talented players who

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Speaker 3: can do that. So I'm with you. I'm gonna be

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Speaker 3: on Sweden to advance at plus one pint forty. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 3: I think the United States is going home. I mean,

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Speaker 3: this is this is a not a great matchup for them,

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Speaker 3: and like we've already mentioned, the market is just still

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Speaker 3: a little too high here on the United States.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I've had I've heard from a bunch of people

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Speaker 1: that are just like why are they still the second favorite?

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Speaker 1: Like do people really think that they could do this?

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Speaker 1: They for sure could. Yeah, Like keep in mind, this

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Speaker 1: is a United States women's team that played a quarter

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Speaker 1: final in a semifinal last year at the last or

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Speaker 1: last cycle at the World Cup and was not better

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Speaker 1: than France and England. In those matches. They won them,

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Speaker 1: but they weren't out playing them. I mean, they would

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Speaker 1: came down to the moments. But this is the kind

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Speaker 1: of team given how they're constructed and given who they're

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Speaker 1: relying on, with Morgan being pastor prime and Smith and

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Speaker 1: Rodman maybe not being I don't want to say ready

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Speaker 1: because that's cliche, but like not having that experience that

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Speaker 1: that does matter, and I think that that at the margins,

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Speaker 1: this women's national team is just not as good, even

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Speaker 1: if the underlying like meat and potatoes stuff is still good.

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Speaker 1: Their twentieth and past completion rate in the group stage.

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Speaker 1: We said that with we had Anna Whitty on. We

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Speaker 1: did a YouTube video with her discussing like this match

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Speaker 1: and you know, she gets twenty second. I thought she

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Speaker 1: was gonna get way higher. And you know, if you

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Speaker 1: watch them, you can kind of pick up on it.

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Speaker 1: They couldn't sequence together passes. This is the supposed to

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Speaker 1: be the best team in the world. I know that

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Speaker 1: they're playing this more direct style, a quick strike, but

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Speaker 1: you should still be able to do a much better

192
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Speaker 1: job of keeping possession against Portugal than they were twentieth

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Speaker 1: and passes completion rate is just alarming, and then outside

194
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Speaker 1: the top five in box entries and carries and so

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Speaker 1: you know, it's just all kinds of concerning stuff about them.

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Speaker 1: You know, they put a good second half against the Dutch,

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Speaker 1: but it's not like they created it. Like you said,

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Speaker 1: Robin had the one big chance they scored off the corner.

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Speaker 1: It wasn't like they were, you know, world beaters chance

200
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Speaker 1: with a chance peppering the goal. It didn't feel that

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Speaker 1: way even if you were able to really press right.

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Speaker 2: Here's a little trivy question for Anthony.

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Speaker 3: So one of the metrics that we like to use,

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Speaker 3: especially for evaluating teams, about how possession dominic they are.

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Speaker 3: And I understand, like you said, the United States is

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Speaker 3: playing more direct. Do you want to guess how many

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Speaker 3: ten plus passed sequences the United States has so far

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Speaker 3: this World Cup?

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Speaker 1: Well, the Vietnam match they probably had a lot, but

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Speaker 1: they didn't even complete that many passes against Vietnam in

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Speaker 1: a row. They were like sixty five percent in that match.

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Speaker 1: I think I'll go with twelve four.

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Speaker 2: Wow, they are twentieth in the World Cup. That is

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Speaker 2: crazy as past sequences. Yeah, that is a little crazy.

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Speaker 3: So I don't know if I mean, you know, even

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Speaker 3: if you go back to that match in the Olympics

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Speaker 3: in twenty twenty one, I mean, the possession was pretty even.

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Speaker 3: It was basically fifty to fifty and Sweden outshot United

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Speaker 3: States had more XG. So like this has been led

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Speaker 3: most of that match.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, left early.

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Speaker 3: I know this is not you just normal United States

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Speaker 3: that is just going to put a stranghold on possession

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Speaker 3: and just take over the match. So and especially without Lavelle,

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Speaker 3: like we already mentioned, it's going to be very very

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Speaker 3: difficult for the United States to create a bunch of

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Speaker 3: high quality chances here.

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Speaker 2: So we are both on the Swede.

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Speaker 1: But that being said, I mean, if you do like Sweden,

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Speaker 1: I think that they're certainly live in the outright markets.

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Speaker 1: I you know, we both have outright tickets, so I'm

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Speaker 1: not adding more necessarily, but there one when that being

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Speaker 1: the pre terminate pre flop number, there's nothing that they

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Speaker 1: to their own level that that's made me think they're

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Speaker 1: any different. Obviously the path is difficult, like Japan or

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Speaker 1: Norway looms in that quarter final, and that both of

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Speaker 1: those teams are capable of being Sweden. They're probably Spain

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Speaker 1: or the Dutch in the semis like, it's not going

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Speaker 1: to be easy. But at this point, at twenty to one,

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Speaker 1: I would only take two or three teams over the

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Speaker 1: Swedes necessarily in terms of on a neutral field, probably

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Speaker 1: three maybe four teams over Sweden. Yeah, just true talent.

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Speaker 3: Yep, exactly. All right, let's move on to the very

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Speaker 3: first match to open up the round of sixteen. This

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Speaker 3: is Saturday at one am Eastern times, Switzerland taking on Spain.

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Speaker 3: Spain is minus two to fifty favorite, Switzerland sitting at

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Speaker 3: plus seven to fifty on the money line with a

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Speaker 3: draw at plus three fifty, Spain is minus six hundred

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Speaker 3: to advance. Switzerland is plus four one hundred to advance.

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Speaker 3: I do have a pick on this game, but first,

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Speaker 3: do you have any thoughts on what should be I

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Speaker 3: think a really a slog of a match to begin

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Speaker 3: the round of sixteen.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, this is you know, Spain Spanish heritage, right,

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Speaker 1: they had seventy two percent of the ball in the

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Speaker 1: first half against Japan they were down to nil.

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Speaker 2: Yep.

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Speaker 1: It was just you know, we may be we maybe

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Speaker 1: just one hit wonders as a podcast because the Men's

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Speaker 1: World Cup we rode Japan and Morocco as far as

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Speaker 1: two of our favorite underdogs, and Japan wins the group.

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Speaker 1: You had to I think you had a five to one.

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Speaker 1: I was too cowardly to bet it, uh, and then

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Speaker 1: you know, I think you took the money line. I

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Speaker 1: was also too cowardly against against Spain.

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Speaker 2: I went on, I went all in again.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and look they did it and it was a

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Speaker 1: pretty routine. Now. I think the biggest question mark with

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Speaker 1: that match one it's a little two on the nose, like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: Spain has that problem when they when they lose the

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Speaker 1: ball because they're not used to they're so used to

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Speaker 1: having the ball there immediately vulnerable in transition, and Japan

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Speaker 1: rebbed them apart. Japan also did score four goals on

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Speaker 1: five shots on top of it, like one x g

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Speaker 1: so you know it wasn't as bad as the score

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Speaker 1: line suggest. They didn't get off the park by the Japanese.

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Speaker 1: And also I do wonder, like what was the motivation

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Speaker 1: for Spain, you know, were they focused on winning that

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Speaker 1: match or was it more of just like a you know,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna go out, we're gonna play, we're gonna get

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Speaker 1: our players in minutes, we're gonna see what happens. But

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Speaker 1: if we lose, it's not really a big deal. Like

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Speaker 1: the draw is not meaningfully different. I'd argue the draws

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Speaker 1: easier now because they get Switzerland instead of Norway and

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Speaker 1: they avoid the US Sweden quarterfinals. So I think the

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Speaker 1: draw kind of worked out for them Spain in terms

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Speaker 1: of like trying to go deep now, they don't seem

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Speaker 1: to have suffered any of the off the field issues

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Speaker 1: that we talked about pre tournament, and that could potentially

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Speaker 1: have been an issue. Now we don't know, we're not

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Speaker 1: in the camp. You know, maybe this loss will unsettle them.

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Speaker 1: Certainly possible when you get embarrassed like they did on

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Speaker 1: the score line. But in terms of this matchup, like

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Speaker 1: Switzerland is also a team that wants the ball Switzerland.

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Speaker 1: It's kind of extremely similar to the men's teams where

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Speaker 1: it's like Switzerland wants to have the ball, Spain wants

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Speaker 1: to have the ball. But Spain has much better players

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Speaker 1: they're going to be able to exert themselves, but in

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Speaker 1: terms of the wayte Sa plays, it does just kind

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Speaker 1: of make them vulnerable. So if you like Switzerland, I

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Speaker 1: think you have to chase a price on them, Like

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Speaker 1: I don't want the plus one and a half here,

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Speaker 1: I want like a to get it to extra time

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Speaker 1: or to win like a money line, or to advance.

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Speaker 1: I want to chase the bigger price because once Spain

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Speaker 1: gets the lead, they're able to strangle the possession and

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Speaker 1: then Switzerland has to come out. Like It's not a

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Speaker 1: great matchup in theory, but I think Spain, you know,

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Speaker 1: just the nature of how they play makes them vulnerable

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Speaker 1: in this kind of setting, even though they have so

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Speaker 1: much attacking talent and their numbers in the first two matches.

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Speaker 1: I know, we don't really think much of Costa Rica

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Speaker 1: and Zambia anymore, but like those two matches were so

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Speaker 1: dominant between Japan and Spain both that I have no

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Speaker 1: bet here. But I'm interested to see this play out.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's I like the under two and

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Speaker 3: a half the best price you can find out as

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Speaker 3: minus one twenty. Like you mentioned, Switzerland's a team that

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Speaker 3: needs to have the ball, and they're not a team

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Speaker 3: like Japan that can just rip teams apart in transition,

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Speaker 3: Like once they get the ball, they low things down,

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Speaker 3: they set up like you know, these hexagonal passing passing

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Speaker 3: lanes to you know, build up very slowly. And coming

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Speaker 3: into the World Cup, they really struggled in the final third.

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Speaker 3: And I understand they scored two goals against the Philippines

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Speaker 3: and created three point one, but they weren't that effective

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Speaker 3: against Norway. I mean they barely were able to create

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Speaker 3: one expected goal on eight shots. And then against New

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Speaker 3: Zealand they were just playing for a draw and they

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Speaker 3: did absolutely nothing. So coming into this match, now you know,

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Speaker 3: they are kind of a blend out of possession where

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Speaker 3: they can come out and press. But so far this

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Speaker 3: World Cup, I mean, their passes per defense faction is thirteen,

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Speaker 3: which is one of the lowest in the entire World Cups.

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Speaker 3: So I don't see them coming out and being like,

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Speaker 3: you know, we're gonna press Spain, We're gonna try to

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Speaker 3: win the ball, Like that's just not going to work.

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Speaker 3: So I feel like they're going to sit very very deeply,

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Speaker 3: sit very compact. You know what's funny, Anthony is that Switzerland.

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Speaker 3: You know we talked about ten plus pass sequence is

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Speaker 3: the United States. The Swiss lead the World Cup thirty

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Speaker 3: eight plus pass sequences crazy through the group stage, which

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Speaker 3: is just crazy, just showing.

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Speaker 1: And yet they only scored two goals exactly. Then came

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Speaker 1: against the Philippines.

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Speaker 3: And that's the point is like you can pass the

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Speaker 3: ball all you want, but if you can't create high

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Speaker 3: quality chances, it doesn't mean anything. Same thing with Spain

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Speaker 3: the match against Japan. They they attempted nine and forty

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Speaker 3: eight passes, they held seventy six percent possession, they got

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Speaker 3: ten shots and points seven XG.

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Speaker 2: Like that's it.

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Speaker 1: Pull up, go, pull up the exact stats of the

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Speaker 1: Japan Spain group stage match and the Men's World Cup.

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Speaker 1: You the laugh because I think Spain completed like a

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Speaker 1: thousand passes that day. And I know, just Rodri passing

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Speaker 1: it to whoever I'm forgetting Meo the other center back was,

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Speaker 1: But it was just those two passing it back and forth,

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Speaker 1: and the anytime they got into the Japan half, they

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Speaker 1: lost the ball and then were immediately dangerous, like almost

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Speaker 1: out and like Morocco beat them, not because they were

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Speaker 1: you know, they got lucky in a way, but like

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Speaker 1: Morocco sat really deep and just kind of absorbed it,

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Speaker 1: and like if Switzerlan can do that, I agreed. Like

365
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Speaker 1: this Swiss team doesn't have much of an attack. I

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Speaker 1: don't love their matchup here. So yeah, I see the

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Speaker 1: look on the under and you're kind of selling me

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Speaker 1: on it now, so yeah, I'll join it.

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Speaker 2: So I'll be on the ouder. I mean.

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Speaker 3: The thing is is like the pace of this match

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Speaker 3: is going to be the slowest that I think you'll see.

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Speaker 2: Throughout the entire round of sixteen.

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Speaker 3: I don't think you're going to see anything that's just

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Speaker 3: such a slog slow build up style. And these look listen,

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Speaker 3: these two teams are going to play very, very conservatively.

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Speaker 3: You know, once we get into this match, they're going

377
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Speaker 3: to want to hold the ball and you know, maybe

378
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Speaker 3: if Spain scores first, Switzerland will come out, but I

379
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Speaker 3: don't really see that, like, you know, given their style

380
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Speaker 3: of play. So under two and a half goals and

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00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:35,359
Speaker 3: minus one twenty for me. Let's move on to the

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Speaker 3: next match, Japan versus Norway. This is Saturday at four

383
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Speaker 3: a m. Eastern time, Japan. After a really impressive group

384
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Speaker 3: stage from them maybe the most impressive team of the

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Speaker 3: group stage. They are sitting at minus one twenty five.

386
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Speaker 3: Norway is sitting at plus three seventy five. The draw

387
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Speaker 3: is at plus two fifty. Excuse me, Japan is minus

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Speaker 3: two to seventy five to advance, Norway sitting at two

389
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Speaker 3: to one to advance. We are both aligned here on

390
00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:13,120
Speaker 3: the same thing. I think we just both think that

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Speaker 3: Japan has gotten a little overvalued based on what they

392
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Speaker 3: did in the group stage.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, let's I'm gonna shelve the Japan talk for now.

394
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Speaker 1: Let's talk about Norway, because they had the first match

395
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Speaker 1: of this World Cup and to be honest, like they

396
00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:29,399
Speaker 1: were flat. They weren't great, but they didn't play bad.

397
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Speaker 1: And like you can now look look back at every

398
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Speaker 1: favorite in this tournament, every one of them had a

399
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Speaker 1: game except Japan where they did not look quite right.

400
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Speaker 1: Like France, the first half against Jamaica looked terrible. Brazil

401
00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:44,720
Speaker 1: had a really poor showing in their last match against

402
00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:47,520
Speaker 1: Jamaica and it cost them the tournament. Like every team

403
00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:49,480
Speaker 1: of the big favorites is allowed to have a stinker,

404
00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:53,480
Speaker 1: Spain had one. England looked really sloppy against Haiti, only

405
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Speaker 1: winning one nil. We've talked about the United States at length.

406
00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:59,400
Speaker 1: Sweden needed stoppage time to get past South Africa. So

407
00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:04,040
Speaker 1: every team that's so. I talked about France, So every

408
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Speaker 1: team has had a moment where they haven't quite looked right.

409
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Speaker 1: And for Norway it really came in the first match,

410
00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:12,399
Speaker 1: and I know that they lose the match. There was

411
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Speaker 1: a controversial var decision where they were off side by

412
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Speaker 1: like a toenail, and it could have been a one

413
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Speaker 1: one game. And if it had been a one one game,

414
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Speaker 1: none of us would have sat here and said, oh,

415
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Speaker 1: you know what's wrong with Norway. They have defensive flaws

416
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Speaker 1: without a doubt. They conceded one point seven xget in

417
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Speaker 1: New Zealand, which is really a red flag, and Switzerland

418
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Speaker 1: did get to one on them, but they were better

419
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Speaker 1: than Switzerland. They were able to rout the Philippines without

420
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Speaker 1: their top strikers. So we can't just throw out our priors.

421
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Speaker 1: And our priors were that Norway was an overwhelming favor

422
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Speaker 1: to win their group and they were pretty much even

423
00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:47,159
Speaker 1: money to make the quarterfinals of this tournament. I think

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00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:49,760
Speaker 1: you bet it right, you bet them like to make

425
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Speaker 1: the quarters, and the market was expecting them to be

426
00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:53,800
Speaker 1: a slight dog to Japan or Spain. Well, now they're

427
00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:56,720
Speaker 1: a pretty sizable dog, yep, to Japan, and I think

428
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Speaker 1: the market's just overreacted. So I'm going to play back

429
00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:02,560
Speaker 1: on Norway plus a half. I think Japan, you know,

430
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Speaker 1: got a dream matchup with Spain in the final match

431
00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:08,199
Speaker 1: of the group. Now that they're everybody's darling best XG difference,

432
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Speaker 1: fewest XG allowed, most XG created, every stat you want

433
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Speaker 1: to look at, from box entries to passes, they're the

434
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Speaker 1: best team. Do you really think that? I don't know,

435
00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:18,080
Speaker 1: and I think the market is aware of it. Like

436
00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:19,959
Speaker 1: there's still the six betting favorite to win this tournament

437
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,320
Speaker 1: for a reason. The path is tough. But yeah, I

438
00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 1: like Norway plus a half. I think this game is

439
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:27,080
Speaker 1: very competitive and I think it's gonna be back and forth.

440
00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:28,439
Speaker 1: I see this as like a one one or two

441
00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:30,800
Speaker 1: two kind of game. Get the extra time. You know,

442
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,320
Speaker 1: maybe Japan's experience wins out in the end, but they're

443
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:36,040
Speaker 1: still you know, overvalued at minus one thirty on the

444
00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:39,960
Speaker 1: money line minus you know, too sixty to advance. Kind

445
00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:40,480
Speaker 1: of crazy.

446
00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:42,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, even if you come into this tournament

447
00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:44,159
Speaker 3: you look at the future to actually win it. I mean,

448
00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:46,720
Speaker 3: Japan was thirty three to one and Norway was fifty

449
00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:48,960
Speaker 3: to one. Like it's not like there was this massive

450
00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:51,359
Speaker 3: gap between them and the odds table, and you know,

451
00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:53,120
Speaker 3: Norway was a team that I was like, I'm still

452
00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:54,399
Speaker 3: trying to kind of figure them out, and I was

453
00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:56,560
Speaker 3: digging a little deeper to them. I mean, their numbers

454
00:20:56,640 --> 00:21:00,439
Speaker 3: through the group stage are still impressive, Like there's still

455
00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,240
Speaker 3: you know, they're averaging a little over nineteen shots per

456
00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:06,760
Speaker 3: ninety which is top five in uh the World Cup

457
00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 3: so far. And it's not like all of those just

458
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:11,160
Speaker 3: came against the Philippines. I believe they got twelve shots

459
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,960
Speaker 3: against New Zealand and fifteen shots against Switzerland, so and

460
00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:17,480
Speaker 3: their average extui per shot has been point one one,

461
00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:21,159
Speaker 3: which is the best markets entire tournament. So like, and

462
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,119
Speaker 3: then you diget a little deeper and like they have

463
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,560
Speaker 3: the most build up attacks of anybody in this World Cup,

464
00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:27,919
Speaker 3: their top five and ten plus pass sequences, Like they

465
00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 3: are controlling the ball very very well, and you know,

466
00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:32,520
Speaker 3: none of the teams that they played are going to

467
00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:34,600
Speaker 3: be better, are better than you know, what they'll face

468
00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 3: in Japan. But still like Norway is still the underlying

469
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 3: metrics are still very very good for them in Japan.

470
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 3: Like you said, I mean they put up crazy numbers,

471
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,160
Speaker 3: like every stat we can point to says they're they've

472
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:48,280
Speaker 3: been the best team. I'm still I'm still kind of

473
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:51,760
Speaker 3: convinced that Spain not through the match, but was just like, oh,

474
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:53,439
Speaker 3: once we got scored on. Once he was like, oh,

475
00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 3: it's okay if we lose this one, because we're clearly

476
00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:57,639
Speaker 3: going to play Switzerland instead of Norway.

477
00:21:57,680 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 2: And I think that's a.

478
00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:01,400
Speaker 3: Very clear dave in right there that they would rather

479
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 3: place Swiss than Norway. So yeah, the price has gotten

480
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:09,640
Speaker 3: too high here on Japan. You know, Norway does play

481
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:12,159
Speaker 3: a very aggressive style that can leave lead them to

482
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:16,119
Speaker 3: being vulnerable in some transitional opportunities. It happened on the

483
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:19,879
Speaker 3: only goal against New Zealand, so we'll see who controls

484
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:21,600
Speaker 3: more possession here. I think it will be Norway, but

485
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 3: I like Norway to advance. Norway, yep, I think Norway.

486
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:29,359
Speaker 3: I like Norway to advance, and I don't hate to

487
00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 3: look at Norway sixty six to one to win this tournament.

488
00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:35,800
Speaker 3: The path is very very difficult, tough, but it's tough.

489
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:37,680
Speaker 1: But probably toughest of any team.

490
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 3: But in terms of the odds comparatively, like would you

491
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:44,639
Speaker 3: rather have Norway at sixty six to one or somebody

492
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 3: like I don't know, like Australia like twelve to one,

493
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:49,800
Speaker 3: like you know, considering the past that they have, so

494
00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 3: I like Norway in this match in them sixty six

495
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:58,200
Speaker 3: to one to win this entire tournament. All right, let's

496
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:03,880
Speaker 3: move on to the next match, the Netherlands taking on

497
00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:07,640
Speaker 3: South Africa, surprisingly getting through to the round of sixteen

498
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 3: coming coming back to beat Italy. Netherlands is minus four hundred.

499
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 3: South Africa is eight to one and the draws plus

500
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:20,560
Speaker 3: five fifty. On the ninety minute line, the Netherlands is

501
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:23,239
Speaker 3: nine to one to advance. South Africa is plus five

502
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 3: fifty to advance. This match is on Saturday at ten

503
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:29,359
Speaker 3: pm Eastern Time. We're kind of in the same corner

504
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 3: here where we kind of do like this South Africa team.

505
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:35,760
Speaker 1: This is the USA slot they got the ten pm

506
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 1: Fox was hoping to get that ten pm slot Saturday night,

507
00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:42,160
Speaker 1: big turnout it would have been USA South Africa would

508
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:45,160
Speaker 1: have been probably an easy win. But nevertheless, the Dutch

509
00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:47,399
Speaker 1: had other ideas. The Dutch were the deserving winners of

510
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:49,879
Speaker 1: the group and it still hasn't really changed my opinion

511
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 1: of them. You know, they had two solid wins against

512
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,679
Speaker 1: Portugal and obviously they rolled Vietnam. Vietnam looked like they

513
00:23:57,680 --> 00:23:59,479
Speaker 1: were kind of done in terms of you just kind

514
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:03,359
Speaker 1: of running as so, you know, I bet against them

515
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:05,360
Speaker 1: in that match, and I'm probably gonna bet against them here.

516
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 1: I'm not going to pretend that to have watched any

517
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:10,920
Speaker 1: of South Africa's matches because they did play at three

518
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 1: am every single time. So that group was really hard

519
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:17,159
Speaker 1: to tune in for. But the South Africans, like just

520
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:19,400
Speaker 1: looking at their underlying profile, you know, you can touch

521
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 1: on this a little bit more than I can, but

522
00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 1: like they're they're defensive solidity, They don't press very much,

523
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 1: like they can sit deep and just make the Dutch

524
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 1: try to beat them. That way, They're better than Vietnam

525
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 1: in a defensive block and they the Dutch want to

526
00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:33,359
Speaker 1: have the ball. They will have a lot of the

527
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 1: ball in this game. But the Dutch for me, still

528
00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:42,280
Speaker 1: on paper, lack that quality in the final third without Medima,

529
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 1: and I think that this is the kind of match

530
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:45,400
Speaker 1: where it can show up and that they're a little

531
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 1: bit more vulnerable. So, yeah, the South Africans are intriguing

532
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 1: underdog here.

533
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean they you know, listen, they didn't deserve

534
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 3: to beat Italy. I mean Italy you know, obviously had

535
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 3: that terrible own goal and they, you know, the X

536
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:00,680
Speaker 3: Sheep bear it out that Italy should have on that match.

537
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:05,439
Speaker 3: But South Africa does play a style where they like

538
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 3: to play very very direct. They sit back in you know,

539
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 3: four four two two low blocks. They haven't held over

540
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 3: forty percent possession in any of their matches in the

541
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:15,199
Speaker 3: group stage. While they are incredibly passive because they do

542
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 3: have the second lowest passive per defensive action. They you know,

543
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 3: one of the stats, you know, when we when we

544
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:22,359
Speaker 3: talk about, you know, teams in the Premier League or whatever,

545
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:24,240
Speaker 3: when who like to play in low blocks, one of

546
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 3: the great stats that we like to use is final

547
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:28,920
Speaker 3: third to box entry conversion rates. So if you're gonna

548
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 3: play passive and you're gonna let teams in your final third,

549
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 3: how effective are you at keeping them out of your

550
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:36,159
Speaker 3: penalty area. South Africa is sitting at twenty four percent.

551
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 3: That's one of the best marks in this tournament, especially

552
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 3: for a passive low block like them and Netherlands. I

553
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 3: agree with you, Like my opinion really hasn't changed on them,

554
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 3: just because you know, they they beat Vietnam seven, nothing

555
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 3: like they the matches against both Portugal and the United States.

556
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 3: They only created a combined zero point nine expected goals

557
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:54,360
Speaker 3: in those two matches. Like it wasn't you know, even

558
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 3: the match against Portugal, I understand, like they can they

559
00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 3: scored early and controlled it from start to finish, but

560
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:05,920
Speaker 3: without medima like offensively, they really can't get margin against

561
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,120
Speaker 3: these decent teams that can play these type of low.

562
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 2: Blocks in South Africa.

563
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 3: I mean, for what it's worth, we've got three African

564
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 3: teams here in the round of sixteen. They were the

565
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:18,359
Speaker 3: champions of the Africa Cup of Nations last year, so

566
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:21,119
Speaker 3: I like them. You know, the best price you can

567
00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 3: give there is you know, plus two and about minus

568
00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 3: one twenty, which I think is a decent price here.

569
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 3: I don't really see the Netherlands getting decent margin against

570
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 3: the South Africans.

571
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, the jill Ard Golden Boot campaign, she's got three

572
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:37,440
Speaker 1: and she's only one off the lead and the leader

573
00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 1: is now out of the tournament, so that'll be interesting.

574
00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:43,760
Speaker 1: But like you know, like Joe Ard, that's their leading

575
00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 1: goal scorer right now, and you know, like I don't

576
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 1: really think that's gonna last. So the production from the

577
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:53,640
Speaker 1: Dutch is they're piecing it together. I'd be very surprised

578
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:55,600
Speaker 1: if they were able to go give Spain a game.

579
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 1: I think that's a really poor matchup for the Dutch.

580
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:03,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, yep. Let's move on to Monday, three

581
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 3: thirty am Eastern time. Your new tournament favorites England taking

582
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:11,879
Speaker 3: on Nigeria. England is minus three thirty four. Nigeria is

583
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 3: sitting at ten to one with a draw at plus

584
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 3: two forty five on the ninety minute line, England is

585
00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 3: minus nine hundred to advance, while Nigeria is plus five fifty.

586
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:24,160
Speaker 2: I'm passing on this match. I'm not.

587
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 3: You know, England has been kind of up and down

588
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 3: throughout this World Cup, Like they weren't that great against Haiti,

589
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 3: they still weren't that impressive against Denmark, and then they

590
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:36,640
Speaker 3: put six past China in the final match, but they

591
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 3: now have more injuries to deal with, so you kind

592
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:40,880
Speaker 3: of like a look here on Nigeria.

593
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is an English team that like coming into

594
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:46,160
Speaker 1: the tournament with everybody healthy, should have been the favorite,

595
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:49,880
Speaker 1: but they lost their top center back, their top striker.

596
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 1: They're losing more players now, Leah Williamson out as well.

597
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:56,119
Speaker 1: Like there's just a lot to be concerned about with

598
00:27:56,160 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 1: this team. And I understand that they're now the tournament favorite.

599
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:02,919
Speaker 1: That's mostly because of the path, Like they're going to

600
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:05,720
Speaker 1: get Nigeria and then either Columbia or Jamaica. And I

601
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 1: would be stunned if they didn't make the semifinals, but

602
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,359
Speaker 1: I'd be stunned if Nigeria didn't give them a game too.

603
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 1: I think Nigeria plus one and a half is what

604
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 1: I've already bet, and I like it here minus one ten.

605
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 1: The Nigerians showed in their two group matches against Australia

606
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 1: and Canada they're able to play up against better teams,

607
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:26,000
Speaker 1: sit deep, defend and not concede high quality chances, and that,

608
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 1: for me is enough for me to believe. They conceded

609
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 1: less than one non penalty XG to Canada, and then

610
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 1: you know, they conceded two point two in the end

611
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 1: to Australia, but most of it came after they were

612
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 1: already up three to one, so at the time of

613
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 1: the they've been going up three to one. Sixty minutes

614
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:45,680
Speaker 1: into the game the XG they only con see two

615
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:48,280
Speaker 1: point seven, so and a lot of it came on

616
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:50,920
Speaker 1: really low quality shots from the Aussies in the first

617
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 1: half of that game. I think England could have similar

618
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 1: issues to breaking them down, and I think it's gonna

619
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 1: be a competitive match, and so I will ride with

620
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 1: the Nigerians plus one and a half. Oholo too, Like

621
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 1: she wasn't really fit for that match against Australia, she

622
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 1: came off the bench. She looked fitter and played more

623
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 1: in the last match against Ireland and makes me feel

624
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 1: like she's kind of rounding in the form here and

625
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 1: and just the way they want to play with her

626
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 1: as the striker, Like she's probably the best attacking player

627
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 1: on the pitch, so they're going to have a chance

628
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 1: to sneak one on the counter. So if you like

629
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 1: an eight to one, it's probably my I mean it

630
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 1: is my favorite, like long shot of all these crazy

631
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 1: underdogs to get out of this group, and it's it's

632
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:35,120
Speaker 1: Nigeria and part of its pedigree and manager. And one

633
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:36,719
Speaker 1: of the main reasons we were concerned was that there

634
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 1: were some off the field things going on with the confederation,

635
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 1: but they seem to have figured those things out or

636
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:42,520
Speaker 1: at least put them aside for this World Cup. So

637
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 1: the Nigerians are my favorite of the like big dogs

638
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 1: because I don't really count Norway and Sweden as like

639
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 1: big underdogs here.

640
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, it's been the.

641
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 1: Underdog World Cup too, has that dog prices.

642
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 2: Have been There's been so many upsets so far.

643
00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:58,520
Speaker 1: I think a lot of it is just the markets

644
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 1: struggling to price some of these tw there's not as much.

645
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the well here's here's a different discussion.

646
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 3: It's just that, like the women's game is a lot

647
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:10,720
Speaker 3: different than the men's game, you know, because the really,

648
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 3: you know, the reality is is that you know, more

649
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:16,360
Speaker 3: money is being poured into the game, and there's this

650
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:19,240
Speaker 3: not really say I would like disparity, but like not

651
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 3: this cross pollination of leagues where you have United States

652
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 3: and a lot of players playing the NWSL who just

653
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 3: don't play against these teams in Europe and the Women's

654
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 3: Super League whether it be LA League or whatever it is,

655
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 3: and the market coming into this, I think just struggled

656
00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:36,200
Speaker 3: the price. Like you said, some of these smaller nations

657
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:39,120
Speaker 3: that are only playing friendlies against some of these bigger sides.

658
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 3: I mean, if you look at a team like we'll

659
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 3: get to them a second. But a team like Jamaica,

660
00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:45,000
Speaker 3: they got routed and every friendly but against a good

661
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:47,240
Speaker 3: competition coming into this World Cup and they haven't conceded yet.

662
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 3: So it's just it's been strange. I know, we'll get

663
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 3: to them, We'll get to them. Yeah, it's just but yeah,

664
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 3: I mean it's been it's been the the World Cup

665
00:30:56,880 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 3: of the underdog. So let's let's move on to one

666
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 3: of the tournament hosts, Australia. They're taking on Denmark at

667
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:09,560
Speaker 3: on Monday at six thirty am Eastern Time. Australia sitting

668
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 3: is at minus one eighteen, Denmark at plus three seventy five.

669
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 3: At the draw at plus two forty, Australia is minus

670
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:18,960
Speaker 3: two to fifty two advance, with Denmark sitting at plus

671
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 3: one seventy five. I don't really have anything on this match.

672
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 3: I'm still struggling to kind of figure out these teams.

673
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 3: I don't know if Sam Kurr is actually going to

674
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:28,200
Speaker 3: play for Australia in this match. She sat on the

675
00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:31,480
Speaker 3: bench for all ninety minutes in their final match against Canada,

676
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 3: and yeah, just I have don't I don't know what

677
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,240
Speaker 3: to make of Denmark. Like they just weren't impressive at

678
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:40,920
Speaker 3: all against China. They got pretty much ran over by England,

679
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:43,440
Speaker 3: and then you know, they dominated a Haiti team that

680
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:44,920
Speaker 3: looked like they kind of ran out of gas towards

681
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 3: the end.

682
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 2: But I don't have any.

683
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 1: Even think they were that dominant. Like I watched the

684
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 1: whole match, Like the first seventy minutes were pretty even

685
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 1: for me. Yeah, they got the penalty and then like

686
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 1: it was pretty even. Haiti had better of the chances

687
00:31:57,840 --> 00:31:59,480
Speaker 1: early in the second half, and then like once Haiti

688
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 1: had to really up and chase the goal. Then Denmark

689
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:04,960
Speaker 1: unfortunately put that one hundred minute goal on us because

690
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 1: we ab and a half, but also like had a

691
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 1: few other chances and like was just offside and just

692
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 1: a foul. So but yeah, like what's Denmark, because what's Australia.

693
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:15,480
Speaker 1: This is the hardest match for me. I don't really

694
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 1: have a bet here. I lean toward Australia if you

695
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 1: made me bet it, but I don't want to bet

696
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 1: them unless I know the curR situation, because like she

697
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 1: didn't play, and she missed the first two matches. They

698
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:27,959
Speaker 1: ruled her out immediately for the first two matches. Then

699
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 1: they said she is available for the third match in

700
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 1: some capacity, but she didn't start and then they were

701
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 1: up big at half so they didn't bring her on.

702
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 1: But if they were, like, if she were really fit enough,

703
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:39,320
Speaker 1: if they were trying to build her fitness, wouldn't they

704
00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 1: get her out there for twenty minutes?

705
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:42,040
Speaker 2: I don't know, maybe they just run around.

706
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 1: That's the thing for me too, It's like, well, why

707
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 1: are they, you know, not getting her minutes? Do they

708
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:49,959
Speaker 1: want to? Are they worried about re injury or they

709
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:52,640
Speaker 1: are like and the fact they didn't get her out there,

710
00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 1: does that mean that she's not going to be one

711
00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 1: hundred percent come this match, Because if she's not, it's

712
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 1: just like not that good of an Australia team. Their

713
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:02,960
Speaker 1: attack was pretty mid the first two games against against

714
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 1: Ireland and Nigeria, and then they had a great game

715
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:09,680
Speaker 1: against Canada, who proved to be a little overvalued and overrated.

716
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 1: But like, we can't really see the elite upside with

717
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 1: this team without her, So yeah, I'm kind of in

718
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 1: a holding pattern, Like you said, I can't really bet

719
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 1: Denmark here, but I would lean toward the Aussies at

720
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:27,480
Speaker 1: home minus one fifteen. Like, yeah, it's kind of says

721
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 1: these two teams are pretty comparable. You're not sure about that?

722
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's it's really going to come down

723
00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 3: to both these teams are really really good in wide areas,

724
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 3: Like Denmark has great fullbacks, same thing with Australia. Australia

725
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 3: has great wide midfielders and but a lot of what

726
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 3: Australia is designed around is you know, they played at

727
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 3: a four to four too. They like take the ball

728
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 3: out wide and swinging crosses to Sam Kerr. Well, when

729
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:50,680
Speaker 3: she's not yea pitched like that becomes kind of a problem.

730
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 3: You kind of saw that, especially in their first match

731
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 3: against Ireland, like they weren't that impressive. They got the penalty,

732
00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:57,800
Speaker 3: but they failed to create over one you know, non

733
00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 3: penalty XG. And then you know against Nigeria got chaotic

734
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 3: and they got exposed in transition and yeah, it's just

735
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 3: it's a very weird match and I don't know what

736
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 3: to make of these two teams. So I am passing

737
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 3: as well. All right, let's move on to well what

738
00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 3: should have been a little bit of a different match.

739
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:19,520
Speaker 3: I think this should have been, uh, there should have

740
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:25,759
Speaker 3: been Germany versus Brazil, but instead we get Colombia versus Jamaica.

741
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, chocolate hell, that would have been in Brazil, Germany, yeah,

742
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:34,800
Speaker 1: or Germany France. Yep, yeah, yes.

743
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:36,240
Speaker 2: So yeah.

744
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:39,720
Speaker 3: So Colombia is a plus one oh five favorite, Jamaica

745
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:41,480
Speaker 3: sitting at three to one with the draw at plus

746
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 3: two fifty, Colombia is minus two hundred advanced, with Japan

747
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:49,439
Speaker 3: at plus one fifty to advance. I like the over here,

748
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 3: the thing, Yeah, the Columbia over for me. I'll let

749
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:56,000
Speaker 3: you go first because I know you kind of like

750
00:34:56,640 --> 00:34:58,719
Speaker 3: Colombian this. Then I'll talk about why I like an

751
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:01,400
Speaker 3: over for two teams that just failed to score.

752
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm thinking about Atlantea with Columbia here. I love

753
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:07,839
Speaker 1: Kai Sato. I've watched I've actually watched all of their

754
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:10,920
Speaker 1: matches group age. I've kind of had a feeling with

755
00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 1: be an Electric factory. In the times, we're a little

756
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:15,960
Speaker 1: more conducive to tuning in. So I have watched all

757
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:20,600
Speaker 1: of the Columbia matches, and Casato and Myira I have

758
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:24,280
Speaker 1: been so good in attack, just like running at people

759
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:27,959
Speaker 1: and kind of being destructive. And I think this Jamaican team,

760
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 1: like credit to them for defending deep and defending effectively.

761
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,399
Speaker 1: They surprised France in the first match. They looked very

762
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 1: average against Panama, and then like Brazila was just flat.

763
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 1: Like they have not they haven't got conceded a goal,

764
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:44,239
Speaker 1: but they've conceded like four hundred point eight xg. Like

765
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 1: it hasn't been like this, like dominant defensive showing they've

766
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 1: only scored one goal, Like they're they're super lucky to

767
00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:53,400
Speaker 1: be here. And I think Columbia is just like a

768
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 1: much more talented team overall and probably doesn't have a

769
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 1: ton of problems here. Like Shaw's the big difference maker

770
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,360
Speaker 1: on pay, but like she hasn't been good either. Yeah,

771
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 1: like they haven't really gotten anything out of them. So

772
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:06,440
Speaker 1: I'm kind of just out on this Jamaican team. I

773
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:09,239
Speaker 1: think there their insanity run may come to an end here.

774
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily want to lay the two hundred, but

775
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:16,399
Speaker 1: I kind of think this is a little bit short.

776
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:19,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like, you know, I like over two goals

777
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:21,920
Speaker 3: and minus one fifteen. It is the best price you

778
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 3: can find. I know it hasn't manifested itself yet and

779
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:26,040
Speaker 3: even if you look at the XG, it hasn't bared

780
00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:28,799
Speaker 3: itself out. But Colombia's style of play is just so

781
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:32,279
Speaker 3: fun to watch, Like it is just so chaotic high

782
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:34,640
Speaker 3: pressing once they lose the ball like they have. You know,

783
00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:37,640
Speaker 3: you mentioned Maya and Kai Seda, like they are so good.

784
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:39,840
Speaker 1: At County Columbia. It was awesome, it.

785
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:42,280
Speaker 3: Was Yeah, they're so good at counter pressing and everything,

786
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 3: and that's where I think it leads me towards.

787
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:46,320
Speaker 2: Yet you know, more of a bed.

788
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 3: On Columbia here best postedly over where it's just like,

789
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:50,879
Speaker 3: all right, well, how is Japan or excuse me, Japan

790
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:53,680
Speaker 3: and Jamaica going to be actually able to play out

791
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 3: of the back because like if you look at the

792
00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:58,080
Speaker 3: match with Colombia against South Korea, which is I think

793
00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:00,719
Speaker 3: a good comparison here, like South Korea could not get

794
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:03,520
Speaker 3: out of their own end for majority many many times,

795
00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:05,960
Speaker 3: and then once they did, there was just acres of

796
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:08,200
Speaker 3: space and they just couldn't, you know, do anything with it.

797
00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:11,719
Speaker 3: Jamaica has They're lucky to be here. I mean they

798
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:13,880
Speaker 3: haven't conceded a goal off of they've had four point

799
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:16,319
Speaker 3: one expected goals their keeper as a two plus two

800
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 3: point four post shot XG plus minus and three matches

801
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:24,160
Speaker 3: like that's insane. But the one thing I keeps me

802
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 3: coming back to the over is we haven't seen what

803
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:29,960
Speaker 3: Jamaica is like when they're playing from behind. They've been

804
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 3: very fortunate to be have you know, zero zero game

805
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 3: States are even playing from ahead against Panama and they've

806
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:36,560
Speaker 3: been able to sit deep and they haven't had to

807
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:38,440
Speaker 3: come out and press. And then coming to this tournament,

808
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:40,160
Speaker 3: they weren't a high pressing team. They were more of

809
00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 3: a mid block, you know, uh stay very very compact,

810
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 3: and you mentioned Shaw, you know, I'm interested to see

811
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 3: how she gets going in this match, specifically, especially if

812
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:52,360
Speaker 3: they do fall behind, because if you remember, you know,

813
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:54,560
Speaker 3: especially against France, they were just kind of trying to

814
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 3: defend for their lives that entire second half and they

815
00:37:56,600 --> 00:37:59,040
Speaker 3: couldn't get out of their own final third. Then she gets,

816
00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 3: you know, the second yellow, hard to get suspended versus

817
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 3: the only team where they actually were going to control

818
00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:07,080
Speaker 3: possession and be able to attack effectively against Panama, and

819
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 3: then the final match they were just again trying to

820
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 3: hold on for your life against Brazil and not really,

821
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:14,400
Speaker 3: you know, trying very hard to get forward. So she

822
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:16,759
Speaker 3: is a very very interesting piece in this because of

823
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:20,600
Speaker 3: how aggressive Colombia is, what they're counter pressing, and Jamaica

824
00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 3: does like to play very very direct, So I could

825
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:25,320
Speaker 3: see Jamaica sneaking one in here, but I think over

826
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:29,440
Speaker 3: two is is always quite low with Columbia. I mean,

827
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:32,640
Speaker 3: I understand them. Again, I understand that the score lines

828
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:34,680
Speaker 3: and the next year have not manifested out, but if

829
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:38,640
Speaker 3: you watch their matches, it is chaos for all ninety minutes.

830
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:42,359
Speaker 3: So I do like over two goals and minus one

831
00:38:42,440 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 3: fifteen the final.

832
00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 1: Seeing a plus one twenty five both teams to score

833
00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:49,320
Speaker 1: out there are Yeah, that's intriguing to me, just because

834
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:51,680
Speaker 1: I do agree with you. Like the longer this stays

835
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:54,359
Speaker 1: zero zero, the longer teams are incentivized to keep at

836
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:58,279
Speaker 1: zero zero. The minute the first goal goes in, that's

837
00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:00,840
Speaker 1: when you I think, maybe see like the the problems

838
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:03,000
Speaker 1: both teams have get exposed, so like the other team

839
00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:05,319
Speaker 1: can fight their way back into this. Yep, So like

840
00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:09,239
Speaker 1: maybe plus one twenty five both teams to score or.

841
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 3: If you want to chase over over two and a

842
00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 3: half is plus one sixty if you want to chase

843
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:14,440
Speaker 3: that price, right, I can.

844
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:16,200
Speaker 1: Also see one, one two though. That's the thing. So

845
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:19,480
Speaker 1: I'm really torn on this game. But like I said,

846
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:22,120
Speaker 1: Colombia man fun to watch.

847
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:22,920
Speaker 2: They're fun.

848
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:25,160
Speaker 1: I think probably our most wrong team because we were

849
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:27,960
Speaker 1: kind of old. Yeah yeah, I mean, if you had

850
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 1: told me Morocco was advancing, I would have told you.

851
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:33,319
Speaker 1: I would have made Columbia like minus two thousand to

852
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:36,239
Speaker 1: not advance. You just told me Morocco advanced out of

853
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:38,759
Speaker 1: this group. What are Columbia's odds advancing? I would have said, like, yeah,

854
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 1: they didn't advance. They were minus two thousand. They stunk,

855
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:46,240
Speaker 1: like we all thought, Yeah, like they advanced with freaking Morocco.

856
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:47,560
Speaker 2: What a team exactly?

857
00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, those guys all right.

858
00:39:49,160 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 3: Well, speaking of Morocco, let's get to our final match here,

859
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:57,800
Speaker 3: France and her fad taking on Morocco. Here to the

860
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:00,880
Speaker 3: round of sixteen, France is sitting in mind six hundred,

861
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:05,200
Speaker 3: Morocco is sixteen to one the draw. Sitting at seven

862
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:09,080
Speaker 3: to one on the ninety minute line, France is minus

863
00:40:09,560 --> 00:40:14,800
Speaker 3: sixteen hundred to advance, Morocco nine to one to advance.

864
00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:16,719
Speaker 2: I have nothing on this match.

865
00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 3: I mean, I was happy for our France future that

866
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:20,479
Speaker 3: the things kind of broke a little bit better because

867
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:21,759
Speaker 3: it looked like they were going to play Germany here

868
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 3: in the round of sixteen and that was going to

869
00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:25,919
Speaker 3: ruin everything. What we talked about before the tournament about

870
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:28,200
Speaker 3: how France was going to get the second place team

871
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:32,319
Speaker 3: in group in Group H and they would have had

872
00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:34,319
Speaker 3: a easy matchup. But hey, that's how it turned out.

873
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:37,000
Speaker 3: They get Morocco here. I like the matchup for them.

874
00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:40,880
Speaker 3: I mean, I can't. I don't know if I can

875
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 3: stomach another Beta Morocco here, especially against the attacking firepower

876
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:46,239
Speaker 3: that Spain has had.

877
00:40:47,040 --> 00:40:49,719
Speaker 2: But I'll let you go first. But I don't hate

878
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:50,319
Speaker 2: a look on the.

879
00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 1: Under Yeah no, thanks Leonder for me France. You can

880
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:59,040
Speaker 1: you can see a world where France. Maybe they're attacking production.

881
00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:01,600
Speaker 1: I've seen all their matches too, Like their attacking production

882
00:41:01,719 --> 00:41:04,439
Speaker 1: is a little bit there's some air in those numbers.

883
00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:06,239
Speaker 1: They got a couple of penalties against Panama, a couple

884
00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:09,440
Speaker 1: of gifts against Panama, scored off a set piece against

885
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:12,560
Speaker 1: Brazil to win it late, looks sluggish against Jamaica. Like

886
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:15,040
Speaker 1: I don't think France has found its top gear By

887
00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:20,600
Speaker 1: any stretch. But they also rested Renard and Lesa Maire

888
00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:24,720
Speaker 1: in that last match and didn't have to play them,

889
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:28,080
Speaker 1: and I think it's a huge benefit with Deanni and Lesamire.

890
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:32,200
Speaker 1: Now this is much more the attacking firepower than South

891
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:34,800
Speaker 1: Korea or Columbia have, and this is still a Morocco

892
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:39,320
Speaker 1: team that gave up six to Germany. So I'm gonna

893
00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:42,400
Speaker 1: just happily pass watch this match route on my blues

894
00:41:43,120 --> 00:41:45,560
Speaker 1: the Blues and hopefully we can get maybe a Denmark

895
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:47,719
Speaker 1: upset and then get to the semifinal, which is really

896
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:49,759
Speaker 1: all you can hope for, get to the Semis and

897
00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 1: then win a couple of coin flips.

898
00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:51,640
Speaker 2: Yep.

899
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:54,799
Speaker 3: So I don't hate a look on the under here

900
00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 3: just because of the fact that Morocco. I mean credit

901
00:41:57,640 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 3: to them forgetting to this point, like they won the

902
00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:01,799
Speaker 3: XT battle against both Columbia and South Korea like they deserve.

903
00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 3: They were the better team in both of those matches.

904
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:06,200
Speaker 3: They obviously did concede six goals to Germany, but that

905
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:08,960
Speaker 3: was only off two point four expected goals, so they've

906
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:11,720
Speaker 3: only conceded four point two expected goals throughout the group stage,

907
00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:14,200
Speaker 3: which coming into the tournament you would have said, like, yeah,

908
00:42:14,239 --> 00:42:16,359
Speaker 3: that's not too bad for a team like Morocco, even

909
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:18,759
Speaker 3: though they are in this easy group. And France, like

910
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:21,320
Speaker 3: you said, like they had a lot of gifts against Panama,

911
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:24,880
Speaker 3: but they were inefficient in front of net against both

912
00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 3: Jamaica and even really Brazil. But France is just this

913
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:32,720
Speaker 3: like dominant, slow possession build up style team and which

914
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 3: I think is going to create a very very low,

915
00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 3: sluggish pace type match with Morocco sitting very deep. I

916
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 3: don't see Morocco coming out and pressing them too much.

917
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:44,160
Speaker 3: So under three goals is sitting up plus one oh

918
00:42:44,360 --> 00:42:46,640
Speaker 3: eight right now is the best price you can find.

919
00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:49,759
Speaker 3: I really don't hate that. I think Morocco can keep

920
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:52,200
Speaker 3: France out here for at least the first half. I

921
00:42:52,200 --> 00:42:53,839
Speaker 3: think it'll be very very I mean, I think both

922
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:56,040
Speaker 3: teams will play very very conservatively here in the first half,

923
00:42:56,080 --> 00:42:59,160
Speaker 3: similar to what you saw with France and Jamaica, and

924
00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:01,040
Speaker 3: then France will probably on in the second half.

925
00:43:01,040 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 2: But I'm struggling.

926
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:05,600
Speaker 3: I'm struggling to kind of figure out France, like you said,

927
00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:07,839
Speaker 3: like they haven't hit their top gear yet, Like even

928
00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 3: the match against Brazil wasn't that impressive.

929
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:12,440
Speaker 1: I thought they were good against Brazil. Yeah, Brazil had

930
00:43:12,440 --> 00:43:14,200
Speaker 1: a bunch of chances late that kind of like inflated

931
00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:18,040
Speaker 1: the xtgar They had like two chances. But I thought,

932
00:43:18,080 --> 00:43:20,239
Speaker 1: like on net on net, they were the better team

933
00:43:20,239 --> 00:43:21,640
Speaker 1: for like seventy minutes of that match.

934
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:25,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's just tough. So I'll again, it's only

935
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:26,600
Speaker 2: a look on the under.

936
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:28,120
Speaker 3: I haven't played it yet, you know, you can follow

937
00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:29,880
Speaker 3: in the action work at maybe if we get and

938
00:43:29,920 --> 00:43:32,360
Speaker 3: we won't, we won't get this. But if it's somehow

939
00:43:32,400 --> 00:43:34,839
Speaker 3: gets to like three and a half at a decent price,

940
00:43:34,880 --> 00:43:37,319
Speaker 3: maybe I'll play it. But other than that, it's a

941
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:40,920
Speaker 3: pass for me. So that'll do it for the Round

942
00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:43,480
Speaker 3: of sixteen. Thank you all for tuning in. You can

943
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:47,239
Speaker 3: tune into all of our other wonderful podcasts, you know,

944
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 3: if you're interested in the men's club season, Me, Anthony

945
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:54,440
Speaker 3: and another co host, Michael Leeboff did an episode breaking

946
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:56,759
Speaker 3: down all the futures for the Premier League. We have

947
00:43:56,880 --> 00:43:59,719
Speaker 3: another episode coming out next week with our good buddy

948
00:43:59,760 --> 00:44:02,600
Speaker 3: al On Shapiro from the FMLFPL pod where we did

949
00:44:02,600 --> 00:44:06,280
Speaker 3: our Premier League point total draft like we did last season.

950
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:10,280
Speaker 3: Me and Anthony on Monday, it'll be coming out Tuesday,

951
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:13,040
Speaker 3: we'll be going through all the rest of the European

952
00:44:13,120 --> 00:44:15,839
Speaker 3: leagues and giving on our pair of futures there. We'll

953
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:21,200
Speaker 3: be back again for the quarterfinals, I believe on Thursday

954
00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:26,320
Speaker 3: that will be coming out, and our first match week

955
00:44:26,400 --> 00:44:29,120
Speaker 3: pod of the season will also be coming out on

956
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:30,960
Speaker 3: Thursday where we go through the Premier League and the

957
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:34,840
Speaker 3: rest of Europe. So busy times for Wonder Goal right now,

958
00:44:35,800 --> 00:44:38,640
Speaker 3: but it's all a ton of fun because the world's

959
00:44:38,719 --> 00:44:42,520
Speaker 3: game just keeps on going every single week. So thank

960
00:44:42,600 --> 00:44:44,320
Speaker 3: you all for listening to Wonder Goal. Thank you to

961
00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:46,960
Speaker 3: our sponsors at bet three six five, and we'll see

962
00:44:46,960 --> 00:44:48,360
Speaker 3: you all on the other side, and good luck with

963
00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:55,120
Speaker 3: your wagers.

964
00:44:56,719 --> 00:45:01,279
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsible. If you or

965
00:45:01,280 --> 00:45:04,080
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

966
00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:07,200
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