Speaker 1: This is Dana Perkins and you're listening to Switched on,
Speaker 1: the podcast brought to you by B and EF. And
Speaker 1: today we're here to talk about the weather. While I
Speaker 1: won't be able to tell you whether or not to
Speaker 1: grab a coat on your way out of the house,
Speaker 1: today we will go through some important definitions when it
Speaker 1: comes to the weather. We'll explain the difference between weather
Speaker 1: and climate and why it can be hard to draw
Speaker 1: straight line between natural disasters like fires and hurricanes and
Speaker 1: climate change. We'll also highlight why B and EF's meteorologists
Speaker 1: are some of my colleagues who work with the widest
Speaker 1: range of teams across BNF. Weather impacts so many things,
Speaker 1: from power prices to natural gas stores to emissions, so
Speaker 1: it's no surprise that many companies, especially utilities, are looking
Speaker 1: at temperature, wind, rain and everything else that goes into
Speaker 1: seasonal weather. As we head into another cyclical La Nina period,
Speaker 1: what does this mean for the year ahead? Today I'm
Speaker 1: joined by B and EF's resident meteorologists and weather analysts
Speaker 1: Jess Hicks and Willetobin, and they share findings from their
Speaker 1: recently published research notes titled Weather and Commodities. Nine Things
Speaker 1: to Watch in twenty twenty five and shifting weather patterns
Speaker 1: a black swan for US commodities B and EF Clients
Speaker 1: will be able to find both of these at BNF
Speaker 1: go on the Bloomberg Terminal or at BNF dot com.
Speaker 1: Right now, let's talk about the weather. Jess, thank you
Speaker 1: very much for coming on the show today. Thank you
Speaker 1: for having me and Willa. Good to have you here
Speaker 1: as well.
Speaker 2: Yeah, thank you, Dana.
Speaker 1: So we're here to talk about the weather, and I
Speaker 1: will tell you right now, I'm not going to tell
Speaker 1: you what the weather's like here because I'm recording from
Speaker 1: London and it's the same way it is every February,
Speaker 1: so we'll just leave it at that. Gray is the theme.
Speaker 1: But actually I wanted to be a meteorologist as a kid,
Speaker 1: so I'm very much looking forward to this. Ten year
Speaker 1: old me cannot believe that my job is to sit
Speaker 1: here and interview the two of you. And actually, you know,
Speaker 1: I'm not going to tell you how old I am either,
Speaker 1: but the now me is also really excited. So as
Speaker 1: we talk about the weather, so much of our conversation
Speaker 1: in this studio and on this show revolves around climate
Speaker 1: and emissions targets, can we have a quick definition at
Speaker 1: the beginning to frame our conversation about the weather and
Speaker 1: create that distinction between weather and climate.
Speaker 2: Sure, So the difference between weather and climate really boils
Speaker 2: down to time horizons. Weather is technically defined as the
Speaker 2: state of the atmosphere at a given point in time,
Speaker 2: which can be measured by things like temperature and wind
Speaker 2: speed and pressures. Whereas climate, on the other hand, is
Speaker 2: a long term average of atmospheric conditions for a region.
Speaker 2: So this is going to be more of like your
Speaker 2: thirty year averages of those types of conditions, and so
Speaker 2: we can think of about that as like the thirty
Speaker 2: year average of winter temperatures.
Speaker 1: Now, other than the fact that I'm really enthusiastic about
Speaker 1: this topic, why is it that we at bn EF,
Speaker 1: who are so focused on the energy transition are researching
Speaker 1: this now?
Speaker 3: So the reason why weather is so important and why
Speaker 3: we're researching it is because it's a fundamental part of
Speaker 3: our lives. It impacts things as simple as what you
Speaker 3: wear every day to things as complicated as the net
Speaker 3: zero energy transition. Weather drives these residential and commercial power
Speaker 3: demands through heating and cooling needs, but it also fuels
Speaker 3: renewable power generation for wind and solar, and can disrupt
Speaker 3: production and transportation of oil and gas with any extreme
Speaker 3: weather event that hits. So these are just a few
Speaker 3: items that come to my mind when I'm thinking about
Speaker 3: how weather has an impact. At BNF, as meteorologists, we're
Speaker 3: looking at short term weather forecast paired with past weather
Speaker 3: data to achieve insights on any impacts for power and
Speaker 3: energy sectors. So when we're monitoring weather, it's important not
Speaker 3: to just look at what's happening right here now, but
Speaker 3: also compare it to the historical averages, so create those
Speaker 3: moving baselines and understanding how the weather is changing with time,
Speaker 3: so that gives us an insight as to how extreme
Speaker 3: a potential shift or a potential upsetted trend can be.
Speaker 3: So one example of this in the EU. I've been
Speaker 3: keeping an eye on wind speeds in Europe this winter
Speaker 3: and we're seeing quite the hit to wind generation in Germany.
Speaker 3: And when this hits, there's a massive decrease in wind
Speaker 3: power generation and we're seeing this increasingly frequent, especially in Europe.
Speaker 3: And then will if you have an example in the US.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So for US weather, I've been interested in how
Speaker 2: extreme weather is impacting physical infrastructure for the US. So
Speaker 2: most recently I looked at how the LA wildfires were
Speaker 2: impacting power transmission lines. But then back in the fall
Speaker 2: during hurricane season, I was also monitoring which oil and
Speaker 2: gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico were in swaths
Speaker 2: of hurricanes.
Speaker 1: So we're going to talk about what some of these
Speaker 1: extreme weather events actually are, and you'd already highlighted a
Speaker 1: couple of them, but before we get there, I want
Speaker 1: to have a better understanding of actually what data as
Speaker 1: meteorologists you call upon to really formulate your research, and
Speaker 1: you know, what information does one need in order to
Speaker 1: start assessing this space.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, just to start things off, weather is a dynamic
Speaker 3: beast to wrangle and there's a lot going on in
Speaker 3: terms of what a meteorologist needs to monitor, so it's
Speaker 3: important to use as much data as possible. Quite a
Speaker 3: bit of this comes in the form of global forecast
Speaker 3: models such as GFS, which is the Global Forecasting System
Speaker 3: and ECMWF, the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts.
Speaker 3: What these offer our forecast data on temperature, precipitation, wind speeds,
Speaker 3: cooling and warming, degree days, and even more and so
Speaker 3: we have access to this as well as historically recorded
Speaker 3: weather data, and at BNF we have access to two
Speaker 3: thousand stations globally, so we can call upon this to
Speaker 3: create baseline comparisons with upcoming forecast data, and this helps
Speaker 3: us understand how abnormal and upcoming weather event will be.
Speaker 3: There is also something we monitor called teleconnections. These are
Speaker 3: significant relationships. There are links between weather phenomena at wildly
Speaker 3: separated locations on Earth. Again a very technical description of
Speaker 3: what a teleconnection is. It's basically different atmospheric patterns around
Speaker 3: the world, and one you might be familiar with is Enzo,
Speaker 3: the El Nino Southern oscillation, which houses El Nino and
Speaker 3: La Nina.
Speaker 1: So that begs the question what is El Nino and
Speaker 1: La Nina? Because I certainly remember talking about this growing up,
Speaker 1: where you would see these periods of extreme rain and
Speaker 1: in California, it was part of our regular lexicon. But
Speaker 1: now I find everybody around the world is throwing these
Speaker 1: terms around, and it seems like every year seems to
Speaker 1: fall into one of these two categories, which I know
Speaker 1: surely cannot be the case. So can you talk to
Speaker 1: us a little bit about First of all, what one
Speaker 1: is versus the other, and the frequency and duration.
Speaker 2: So and so. It is a multi year cycle of
Speaker 2: atmospheric patterns. It actually has three phases, which would be
Speaker 2: El Nino, La Nina, and the neutral phase. At the
Speaker 2: most basic level, El Nino and La Nina are warm
Speaker 2: and cold sea surface temperature anomalies. For a section of
Speaker 2: the Equatorial Pacific. We are currently in a La Nina,
Speaker 2: which is the cold phase of the cycle, but this
Speaker 2: does not necessarily mean that the entire globe is colder
Speaker 2: than normal. A typical La Nina year will bring wetter
Speaker 2: weather to the western Equatorial Pacific, northern Brazil and the
Speaker 2: Pacific Northwest for the US, and drier conditions to the
Speaker 2: southern US and northeast China. Regional temperature shifts also become apparent,
Speaker 2: with warmer conditions across the southern US and cooler conditions
Speaker 2: in the US, Pacific Northwest, and on the west coast
Speaker 2: of South America. El Nino is one of the oldest
Speaker 2: known teleconnection patterns. It was actually first discovered in the
Speaker 2: fifteen hundreds by Peruvian fishermen who noticed the periods of
Speaker 2: warmer water in the Pacific, bringing fewer fish to their
Speaker 2: nets around December, so they named it El Nino due
Speaker 2: to the proximity to the birth of Christ in the
Speaker 2: Christian religion. So since then there has been extensive research
Speaker 2: into this phenomenon that now is a key factor in
Speaker 2: our seasonal forecasting. Scientists have also discovered other similar atmospheric
Speaker 2: patterns that inform our seasonal outlooks, such as the North
Speaker 2: Atlantic oscillation. This pattern is a sea sawing of high
Speaker 2: and low pressures in Iceland and the Azores and has
Speaker 2: trended more positive over the last three months, bringing warmer
Speaker 2: than average temperatures to Europe. Understanding these patterns can give
Speaker 2: us clues as to what weather we can expect in
Speaker 2: the coming months. While our seasonal forecasts are not yet
Speaker 2: accurate enough to tell you how much snow your ski
Speaker 2: resort is going to have in the three months prior
Speaker 2: to when you were planning it, we can have an
Speaker 2: idea of how much above or below normal temperatures and
Speaker 2: precipitation will be at a regional level. So this is
Speaker 2: really important for our energy storage levels and traders. If
Speaker 2: the US is expecting winter temperatures to be mild with
Speaker 2: above normal precipitation, this could lead to low gas withdrawals
Speaker 2: from a lack of heating demand and bolstering conventional hydroelectric
Speaker 2: reservoirs leading to an increase in renewable power generation.
Speaker 3: And another quick anecdote for Europe with the impact that
Speaker 3: the North Atlantic Oscillation has. We're seeing the presence of
Speaker 3: this this year with Lanina. So, like Willis said, in
Speaker 3: Europe during a Lanina, we'll normally see cooler than average conditions,
Speaker 3: but this year we've actually seen warmer than average conditions,
Speaker 3: and that's because the North Atlantic Oscillation has swung into
Speaker 3: a positive phase. So this positive phase is dominating over Lanninia,
Speaker 3: creating that warmer than average condition in Europe. These trends
Speaker 3: are really important to watch for liquid natural gas usage.
Speaker 1: And I love that you brought up the LNG part
Speaker 1: of this because this features really heavily as we do
Speaker 1: at b and EF twice a year, this winter gas
Speaker 1: Outlook and Summer gas Outlook, and look at the level
Speaker 1: of storage that we have in various parts of the world,
Speaker 1: and as traders are looking to try and figure out
Speaker 1: what those prices are going to be going forward. My
Speaker 1: question really revolves around when you see this warmer weather
Speaker 1: than one would infer you need less gas over the
Speaker 1: course of the winter in order to get through. Does
Speaker 1: that have or is that counterweighted and to what extent
Speaker 1: does it count weighted by increased demand for air conditioning
Speaker 1: on a particularly hot year, where you're entering a summer
Speaker 1: that's going to have higher than average temperatures.
Speaker 3: It's something to monitor for sure. So when you're noticing
Speaker 3: that warmer than average conditions are settling into an area,
Speaker 3: for example, in winter, you are going to notice that
Speaker 3: there is less energy demand. Now you and I might
Speaker 3: not feel it. You and I might not feel that
Speaker 3: it's warmer than average because technically the temperatures are still cool,
Speaker 3: but the markets will feel it, and that's going to
Speaker 3: be the interesting thing.
Speaker 1: Do you work closely with the gas team as a result.
Speaker 3: Every single day? So I know for myself in London,
Speaker 3: I'm working with every team on my floor, So whether
Speaker 3: that be the gas team, the oil team, the wind team,
Speaker 3: the hydro team, we're working every single day on passing
Speaker 3: ideas to each other and staying on top of the context.
Speaker 2: On the US side, we've actually done some research into
Speaker 2: how increases in summer gas demand is not enough to
Speaker 2: offset losses in warmer winters. One of our gas analysts
Speaker 2: in riy Kae Gonzalez put out a report called warmer
Speaker 2: Weather low gas prices could threaten energy transitions and it
Speaker 2: discusses how when we have warmer winters there is less
Speaker 2: demand for gas driven heating. We are also seeing warmer summers,
Speaker 2: but in those summers, the increase in power demand can
Speaker 2: be filled by renewable energy, so that increase in power
Speaker 2: demand is not necessarily being filled by burns in the
Speaker 2: natural gas sector.
Speaker 1: So it's really clear how weather is so incredibly important
Speaker 1: to a number of the different commodities that are covered
Speaker 1: at BNF. What I want to know now is a
Speaker 1: pivot to finance. When we looked at these most recent
Speaker 1: fires that took place in southern California, insurance came up
Speaker 1: quite often, and then also the role of reinsurance and
Speaker 1: catastrophe bonds. Can you talk about some of the financial
Speaker 1: instruments that exist and really how these interrelate with extreme
Speaker 1: weather events.
Speaker 2: So catastrophe bond or a cat bond is a high
Speaker 2: yield debt instrument designed to raise money for companies in
Speaker 2: the insurance industry in the event of a natural disaster.
Speaker 2: A CAT bond allows the issuer to receive funding for
Speaker 2: the bond if the conditions are met, such as like
Speaker 2: a tornado or a hurricane or severe flooding. If an
Speaker 2: event that's protected by the bond activates a payout to
Speaker 2: the insurance company, the obligation to pay interest and repay
Speaker 2: the principle is either deferred or completely forgiven. So a
Speaker 2: CAT bond has a shorter maturity date of between three
Speaker 2: to five years, and the primary investors in the security
Speaker 2: are like hedge funds and pensions and other institutional investors.
Speaker 2: But on the other hand, a reinsurance is a type
Speaker 2: of insurance primarily purchased by insurance companies to provide a
Speaker 2: layer of financial protection against weather events that could cause
Speaker 2: major financial disasters, and as we're seeing with extreme events
Speaker 2: becoming more frequent, the market for these types of bonds
Speaker 2: is also growing. In twenty twenty four, the US had
Speaker 2: twenty four rather related disaster events that individually caused over
Speaker 2: a billion dollars in damages, with seventy one percent of
Speaker 2: these events attributed to severe storms. The five year average
Speaker 2: cost of these damages in twenty twenty four was around
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty billion, which was more than double
Speaker 2: what it was ten years ago. La Nina events have
Speaker 2: been linked to more severe storms across the US, and
Speaker 2: so this La Nina that we are currently in could
Speaker 2: also mean increasing market chairs for these types of bonds,
Speaker 2: as severe events could potentially be more frequent this year.
Speaker 1: And can you put the financial losses in context, because
Speaker 1: you know, I brought up these fires in Los Angeles
Speaker 1: and they were really an unprecedented amount of damage in
Speaker 1: terms of financial loss. I mean, how much was it
Speaker 1: and how does it compare to other natural disasters which
Speaker 1: have taken place maybe also in the US.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so the LA fires were a really special case
Speaker 2: of like the kind of perfect storm of bad conditions.
Speaker 2: So it's not that these fires were necessarily the largest
Speaker 2: fires we've seen in US history. It's more so that
Speaker 2: they were in Los Angeles, a fairly wealthy area, and
Speaker 2: so the the property losses were extremely large. So the
Speaker 2: estimated monetary toll of the LA fires is expected to
Speaker 2: surpass two hundred and fifty billion, which would make it
Speaker 2: the costiest weather disaster in US history, and that is
Speaker 2: even greater than Hurricane Katrina, which reached two hundred and
Speaker 2: one billion, dollars in damages.
Speaker 1: So one of the things that the two of you
Speaker 1: did headed into this year was great a Things to
Speaker 1: Watch research piece where you kind of looked at the
Speaker 1: year ahead. And I know it's very difficult, as you've outlined,
Speaker 1: to actually predict the weather, but given your experience in
Speaker 1: these kind of annual and multi year trends that take place,
Speaker 1: what are some of the things that we can expect
Speaker 1: in the year ahead.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So for the coming year in twenty twenty five,
Speaker 2: we are seeing above average fire conditions forecasted for Texas.
Speaker 2: This is coming from the National Interagency Fire Center, which
Speaker 2: issues wildland fire potential outlooks, and so we're seeing these
Speaker 2: above average fire conditions through the spring. And so this
Speaker 2: is a combination of below average precipitation, above average winds,
Speaker 2: and above average temperatures. And so from the Bloomberg Terminal,
Speaker 2: we have these seasonal forecasts, which is showing all three
Speaker 2: boxes are checked for Texas for the spring. But the
Speaker 2: National Weather Service also issues temperature and precipitation outlooks for
Speaker 2: the next twelve months, and so in those we are
Speaker 2: seeing above average temperatures for Texas, which means that we
Speaker 2: could see fire conditions persisting throughout the year, and so
Speaker 2: the only thing that is left is an igniti event
Speaker 2: to cause another string of devastating wildfires.
Speaker 1: So related to fires, but also related to the energy system,
Speaker 1: I want to talk about precipitation and essentially water levels.
Speaker 1: Can you make that connection spell it out for us
Speaker 1: regarding how rainfall is actually connected to power and emissions.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, So I just want to preface this with we
Speaker 3: have a focus on the US and Europe, but in
Speaker 3: our nine Things Weather to Watch for twenty twenty five,
Speaker 3: we took a look at China and what we're seeing
Speaker 3: right now in China is something very interesting. So at
Speaker 3: the end of twenty twenty four, water levels at one
Speaker 3: of the biggest dams, actually the biggest dam in China.
Speaker 1: Is it the three Gorgeous Dam.
Speaker 3: Three Gorgeous Dam, the water levels measured four meters below
Speaker 3: the five year average. Now, this doesn't sound like a lot,
Speaker 3: but thirteen southern Chinese provinces in the last six months
Speaker 3: have undergone drought warnings. Thankfully though, La Nina is bringing
Speaker 3: a much needed reprieve to this area. So I've been
Speaker 3: monitoring the weather reports and right now in some areas
Speaker 3: of southern China. They're registering sixteen millimeters above the average.
Speaker 3: It has relieved the drought stress on any hydropower plants
Speaker 3: in southern China along the Yansee River. But this drought
Speaker 3: scare has revitalized concerns over a clean, stable energy generation,
Speaker 3: especially during periods of low hydropower output for the nation.
Speaker 3: So to preface this with context, the issue began in
Speaker 3: twenty twenty two there was an tense year long drought
Speaker 3: and into twenty twenty three that hit the southern provinces
Speaker 3: housing the Yangsee River. So this is the largest river
Speaker 3: in China as a whole. This river is crucial for
Speaker 3: hydropower and specifically Sichuan Province a key upstream province for
Speaker 3: water recharge. It's also a province that makes up thirty
Speaker 3: percent of China's hydropower. It saw water levels drop by
Speaker 3: thirteen meters that year, so during this period, Sichuan Hydropower
Speaker 3: actually recorded an eleven percent drop in hydro power outputs.
Speaker 3: So the stability of the hydropower in southern China as
Speaker 3: a power source in that area left room for concern
Speaker 3: thinking about future peak energy demand, and so this short
Speaker 3: term prioritization of coal is offering some stability for China
Speaker 3: as they're aiming to amp up the renewable energy capacity
Speaker 3: to meet the twenty thirty renewable targets.
Speaker 1: So very simply put, when you have low rainfall in
Speaker 1: areas that are requiring hydropower to be a part of
Speaker 1: their energy mix, they have to turn to other sources,
Speaker 1: and in some circumstances that leads to higher emissions. So
Speaker 1: rain level is definitely linked. Let's also talk about how
Speaker 1: droughts connect to not just hydropower, but also to other
Speaker 1: fuel sources like biofuels. Naturally a lot of them come
Speaker 1: from sources like soybean, rape seed, So can we talk
Speaker 1: a little bit about how there may be droughts right
Speaker 1: now and how that's impacting the biofuels market.
Speaker 3: It's another interesting topic we touched upon in our nine
Speaker 3: Things to Watch, So it's important to think about upstream
Speaker 3: as well as downstream impacts. And I really want to
Speaker 3: put a spotlight on Brazil and Brazil's upcoming biodiesel outlook.
Speaker 3: There's been hurdles at nearly every turn. So brazil biodiesel
Speaker 3: relies on that nationally grown soybean and twenty eight percent
Speaker 3: of national soybean is grown in Matagrosso, so again another
Speaker 3: spotlight on this region in Brazil. Not only was the
Speaker 3: planting season hit with fifty six percent below average rainfall
Speaker 3: during the first seventy five percent of that season, harvest
Speaker 3: season is now saying delays with one hundred percent above
Speaker 3: average rainfall, So I just want to stop one hundred
Speaker 3: percent above average. So farmers are seeing floods, roads are
Speaker 3: becoming impassable, bridges are being destroyed, on top of the
Speaker 3: fact that farmers need to get into their fields and
Speaker 3: harvest their crop. So what's happening here is that we're
Speaker 3: seeing not only potential impacts on germination and a shorter
Speaker 3: growing window early on in the crop cycle, but we're
Speaker 3: also seeing moisture control issues at harvest. So this all
Speaker 3: leads to ending production values of Brazil and soybean potentially
Speaker 3: going down. So what will the final output be? Will
Speaker 3: be lower than expected, and from there, how does that
Speaker 3: impact allocation towards biodiesel on top of other uses. So
Speaker 3: this is really important to think about when we're thinking
Speaker 3: about Brazil's Fuel of the Future bill that was passed
Speaker 3: in October twenty twenty four, and the pressure on Brazil
Speaker 3: right now is to push the biodiesel blend and diesel
Speaker 3: oil up to fifteen percent. So with this impact on
Speaker 3: local soybean, what will be the impact on biodiesel.
Speaker 1: This here so floods, droughts that they don't just have
Speaker 1: to do with water. So can you actually pivot now
Speaker 1: to what impacts renewable energy wind power and what is
Speaker 1: referred to as a wind drought.
Speaker 3: So these are prolonged periods of time where wind speeds
Speaker 3: are registering two meters per second or less, and if
Speaker 3: we look at the data that comes out of it,
Speaker 3: the impacts are actually pretty shocking. So during an average
Speaker 3: wind drought, if wind speeds drop by ten percent, power
Speaker 3: generation can drop by up to thirty percent, which is
Speaker 3: I don't know about you, but that's a pretty shocking statistic.
Speaker 3: And this is becoming very important for countries whose generation
Speaker 3: capacity is made up of a high proportion of wind.
Speaker 3: So when periods of low wind hit, this could undercut
Speaker 3: renewable energy output and exacerbate reliance on fossil fuels. So
Speaker 3: right now, if we can turn our spotlight to Europe,
Speaker 3: we're seeing a particularly striking impact in countries like Germany,
Speaker 3: Europe's top country for wind production. So in twenty twenty
Speaker 3: three and twenty twenty four there were four separate months
Speaker 3: that Regis stirred wind rout events in Germany. Just two
Speaker 3: of these events in twenty twenty four led to win
Speaker 3: generation reductions of sixteen percent against the five year average,
Speaker 3: and as a result, total German win output for twenty
Speaker 3: twenty four fell by six percent from the previous year,
Speaker 3: and this was despite capacity increasing three percent year over year.
Speaker 3: So you can see the impact something like this can
Speaker 3: have on a country. But how do we forecast these
Speaker 3: It's incredibly difficult to accurately predict where wind will blow
Speaker 3: and how strong it will be. But in Europe, low
Speaker 3: pressure systems driven by the Gulf Stream tend to bring
Speaker 3: weather and in this case, windier conditions. Tracking rainfall tied
Speaker 3: to these systems in long range forecast can offer insights
Speaker 3: into when wind dear weather may develop.
Speaker 1: So I think we've done a great job of laying
Speaker 1: out why not only those who are covering commodities, but
Speaker 1: financial players, companies in the energy system, anybody looking in
Speaker 1: anything that's project power development, they are going to be
Speaker 1: focused on actually chain changes to the weather and what
Speaker 1: is becoming increasingly unpredictable as we extrapolate this out, and
Speaker 1: we know that a change in climate leads to a
Speaker 1: disruption in the water cycle and therefore a change in weather.
Speaker 1: Often when you see extreme weather events, there's a debate
Speaker 1: over whether or not you can actually link a specific
Speaker 1: weather event to anthropogenic climate change. And I want to
Speaker 1: understand why it is so difficult to make that connection.
Speaker 1: When we zoom out, the connection seems quite obvious. But
Speaker 1: when it comes down to a specific place and time,
Speaker 1: why is it that there is so much debate over
Speaker 1: tying something to a specific natural disaster.
Speaker 2: So I think that this question really ties back to
Speaker 2: the definition of climate versus weather. When we're talking about weather,
Speaker 2: we're looking at the timescale of like hours to days,
Speaker 2: So weather changes every day, you know, like yesterday's weather
Speaker 2: is not necessarily the same as today's. But in terms
Speaker 2: of the climate, this is thought of to be the
Speaker 2: typical conditions for a region during a specific time of
Speaker 2: the year, and so when we look at climate change,
Speaker 2: we can see that over the past like thirty to
Speaker 2: fifty twelve hundred years, the weather that we are experiencing
Speaker 2: now is not the same as it was back then.
Speaker 2: So extreme weather has also been happening since the dawn
Speaker 2: of time, but our methods of data collection have only
Speaker 2: recently become quite so sophisticated.
Speaker 1: Delineation between averages and frequency as opposed to a specific
Speaker 1: point in time. Where we know that extreme weather events
Speaker 1: do happen, it's just how often and to what degree
Speaker 1: of intensity on a global basis. That's really so we're
Speaker 1: really ending how we began, which is this delineation between
Speaker 1: weather and climate and what conversation each of those terms
Speaker 1: is appropriated.
Speaker 2: Yes, and so when we talk about extreme weather, it
Speaker 2: can be hard to link these events to climate change
Speaker 2: just because of the infrequency in which they happen. When
Speaker 2: you think about hurricanes, especially like a Category five storm,
Speaker 2: those events are only maybe happening like three times a year,
Speaker 2: and so it can be very hard to look at
Speaker 2: a historical trend in these events when they happen so
Speaker 2: infrequently and to then be able to link them to
Speaker 2: climate change. But there has been significant research in this
Speaker 2: area in linking the intensity of these storms to climate change.
Speaker 2: So we know that like factors that contribute to their
Speaker 2: intensity are increasing and have been tied to climate change,
Speaker 2: things such as sea level temperatures and sea level rise.
Speaker 2: And so while we can measure the factors that contribute
Speaker 2: to these extreme events and lick those to climate change,
Speaker 2: it can be hard sometimes to link the extreme event
Speaker 2: itself because these events happen so infrequently, and since weather
Speaker 2: has always been happening. But it's really the intensity of
Speaker 2: these events that we are seeing as a result of
Speaker 2: climate change.
Speaker 3: And so I before I was a meteorologist, I was
Speaker 3: a paleo climatologist, which is a really fancy way of
Speaker 3: saying I studied past climate, and when you're looking at
Speaker 3: past levels of CO two, it pairs almost exactly with
Speaker 3: past levels of temperature. And when we're seeing these massive
Speaker 3: shifts upward of CO two, you see paired rises of
Speaker 3: temperature over time. And what's really striking recently is that
Speaker 3: the amount of CO two that we're seeing increase year
Speaker 3: after year is happening at a much faster rate than
Speaker 3: what we ever saw in paleoclimate history. And so this
Speaker 3: is why we're seeing the impact of more extreme weather
Speaker 3: tied to these increasing global temperatures, because our natural systems
Speaker 3: aren't used to this rapid change. And so as weather
Speaker 3: is a form of equilibrium it's trying to adjust, and
Speaker 3: with that adjustment comes stronger, more intense storms on this occasion.
Speaker 3: So that from my perspective, that's kind of what I'm
Speaker 3: looking at.
Speaker 1: So Jess Willa, thank you for giving me even more
Speaker 1: reasons to be checking the weather report and for sharing
Speaker 1: some insights regarding how various climate events extreme and otherwise
Speaker 1: are connected to our energy system and so many of
Speaker 1: the commodities that we deal with on a daily basis
Speaker 1: here at BNF.
Speaker 3: Thank you very much.
Speaker 2: Dana, Yeah, thank you so much for having us.
Speaker 1: Today's episode of Switched On was produced by Cam Gray
Speaker 1: with production assistance from Kamala Shelling. Bloomberg NEIF is a
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