1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:04,720 Speaker 1: This is Football four oh one K broadcasting on Dallas 2 00:00:04,720 --> 00:00:08,160 Speaker 1: Cowboys dot Com and the official Dallas Cowboys Happen Now 3 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:14,800 Speaker 1: your hosts Bow Repka and RJ. Choppy, Welcome to episode 4 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:19,239 Speaker 1: three of season four of the Football four oh one K. 5 00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:21,520 Speaker 1: I M R J. Choppy of one oh five three 6 00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 1: the Fan. He is Box Repka from the Football Glory Hall. 7 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 1: We have a great show in store for you today. 8 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:30,040 Speaker 1: We're gonna look at how the difference is between week 9 00:00:30,080 --> 00:00:32,720 Speaker 1: one and week two in the NFL season really have 10 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:35,519 Speaker 1: taken shape. We're gonna upgrade and downgrade some teams. We're 11 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:37,920 Speaker 1: gonna do a look ahead see how the lines have 12 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:41,120 Speaker 1: moved between week one and week two in terms of 13 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:44,479 Speaker 1: where they were when training camps opened. That's big, that's 14 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:46,560 Speaker 1: what you know. The offseason lines. If those are some 15 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:48,519 Speaker 1: of the ones that you're gonna get where they are 16 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:50,239 Speaker 1: at their most trust form. And then you have some 17 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 1: over and underreactions of teams getting valued. In of course, 18 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: at the end, as we always do, bo the best Bets, 19 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 1: the Pizzabody Parlay, the college games of the week. So 20 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 1: why don't we just start off where we have upgraded 21 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:05,800 Speaker 1: and downgraded some teams after week one. Do you want 22 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: to go in reverse alphabetical order with the upgrades first? 23 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 1: How do you want to do it? Sure? Reverse alphabetical 24 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 1: order works. Yeah, all right, So taking a look at 25 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 1: the four so teams that we have upgraded between where 26 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 1: we were at the start of the year and where 27 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 1: we are now looking after week one. Yeah, so first 28 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:31,160 Speaker 1: team up as Arizona their slot upgrade from LA from 29 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:32,959 Speaker 1: where they were going into last week. That was a 30 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 1: very impressive performance they held in Tennessee, but impressive to 31 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:40,440 Speaker 1: us and probably the numbers for different reason than of course, 32 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:43,360 Speaker 1: the public's gonna go crazy about Kyler and him making 33 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 1: all the plays and he looks Spectacler. But I'm old 34 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 1: enough to remember, you know about week seven or eight 35 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 1: last year Shopy where he was the second odds on 36 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:53,600 Speaker 1: favorite to win the MVP, and you know, they kind 37 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:56,440 Speaker 1: of faded down the stretch, as coach bro in Arizona 38 00:01:56,480 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 1: does tend to do. He did that in Texas Tech, 39 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 1: He's done it so far are in Arizona. So that's 40 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 1: not the reason why the upgrade. I mean, I think 41 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 1: we know what Kyler is by now. He's a pretty 42 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 1: good player. The slide upgrade is because last year chopping 43 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:13,800 Speaker 1: their defense was tenth over on dvoas they had a 44 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 1: really good defense in Arizona. But to come out and 45 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:18,080 Speaker 1: do that week one, and you know, you and I 46 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 1: have talked about it many many times. Defense does not 47 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 1: always carry over, at least not to the level where 48 00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:25,440 Speaker 1: it might have been the year before. You might have 49 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:28,400 Speaker 1: went from great to good or from good to great, 50 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:31,080 Speaker 1: you know, it can go either way. But for them 51 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:33,560 Speaker 1: to go on the road and dominate a Tennessee team 52 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 1: that finished third last year overall DVOA and offense, and 53 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:40,120 Speaker 1: quite frankly, quarterback in Tannehill has been top five in 54 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 1: EPA plus c POE the last two years. You know, 55 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 1: really under the radar kind of guy. That is really 56 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:50,760 Speaker 1: what upgraded him the numbers. You know that that's really 57 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 1: where we're adding Arizona. So it was really a heck 58 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:55,080 Speaker 1: of a start for them come out on the road 59 00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:57,320 Speaker 1: and just totally dominate both sides of the the ball. That 60 00:02:57,320 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 1: was pretty impressive. Yeah, it really was. And you know, 61 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 1: I thought, like going into the year, I was I 62 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 1: was lukewarm on Arizona. I didn't know what to think. Uh, yeah, 63 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 1: coach bro is what he is, right, But you know, 64 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 1: I've always been a Kyler guy, you know, But I 65 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:16,360 Speaker 1: didn't really know what to think. I mean, they should 66 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 1: have they shouldn't have beat Buffalo last year, and they 67 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 1: were right there at the end trying to make a 68 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 1: postseason run, and and and they fell short. There's Chicago 69 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:30,800 Speaker 1: on that final day. Um yeah, So I mean, if 70 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 1: you can't beat Chicago to make the postseason, I don't know. Man. Yeah, 71 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 1: And that's kind of the reason why we're not gonna 72 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 1: go crazy. The numbers are going to upgrade them. But here, 73 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 1: and here's the other thing that makes it most impressive 74 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 1: personally to me, because I get to see the numbers 75 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 1: behind the scenes. Overall, our power rakings pick every game, right. 76 00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 1: We don't bet eye very game obviously, but there was 77 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 1: three games this last week there were zero delta and 78 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 1: this was one of them, which means the numbers were 79 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:58,440 Speaker 1: rot on or the spreads right on where we thought 80 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 1: that was supposed to be. Our number said. Our numbers 81 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 1: went eight and five in thirteen gradable games against the spread, 82 00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:07,080 Speaker 1: so our numbers were pretty good. They were pretty accurate 83 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 1: rolling in so for them to outperform this badly against 84 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 1: our numbers, that's pretty impressive as well. Yeah, that is 85 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 1: pretty impressive. Okay, let's go to the next team. Let's 86 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 1: go to Denver. This is this is fascinating because you know, 87 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 1: they didn't really play a great team. They put the Giants, 88 00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 1: and the Giants are not anything that's special. I don't 89 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 1: think the Giants would be very good. But when you 90 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:32,120 Speaker 1: win a game and you know, Teddy Bridgewater is a 91 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:36,039 Speaker 1: veteran quarterback, he's not some kid, so we know a 92 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 1: lot about him, at least we think we do. But 93 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 1: I also think that he's not as good as he 94 00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:42,720 Speaker 1: could have been had you not had that injury. Where 95 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 1: are we with Denver? Yeah, Denver does get a pretty 96 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:48,720 Speaker 1: good to upgrade from the numbers on this when this 97 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 1: was actually our worst loss of the week. Is one 98 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:53,600 Speaker 1: of our two losses in the Super Contest. We did 99 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 1: have the Giants plus three, and you know, if Danny 100 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 1: Dams doesn't cough that ball up in the red zone, 101 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 1: maybe you know they were going in to get in 102 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 1: the cover right there. It was still kind of early 103 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 1: in the second half or fourth quarter, so you know, 104 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:08,159 Speaker 1: maybe who knows what happens if he doesn't if they 105 00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 1: score the touchdown. That's how football goes. Our football goal 106 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 1: is run, Washington would say. But it did happen, and 107 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:17,480 Speaker 1: from then they just couldn't recover in Denver completely dominated 108 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 1: game from that point forward. That's the reason for the upgrade. 109 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:23,920 Speaker 1: It's not because they beat a giant team. It's not 110 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 1: gonna be very good and not gonna make the postseason. Obviously. 111 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 1: Denver probably isn't gonna make the postseason either though, for 112 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 1: being honest and for two teams and that kind of 113 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:36,840 Speaker 1: below average caliber, which is what they are. They went 114 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 1: on the road, they dominated the performance statistically for sure, 115 00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 1: So that's the reason why they do get the upgrade 116 00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:44,719 Speaker 1: from the numbers. I'm not gonna go crazy about it. 117 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewater is what he is. We all know who 118 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:49,640 Speaker 1: Teddy two Gloves is. So I think at the end 119 00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:51,640 Speaker 1: of the day, they're gonna be right around that over 120 00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:53,800 Speaker 1: under eight mark, eight and a half mark they started 121 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 1: out in Vegas. We'll see where they end up, but 122 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 1: they'll probably be, you know, seven and ten somewhere running there. Okay, 123 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 1: all right, how but how about the Bengals. You're the 124 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 1: Bengals win an overtime game over over the Vikings at 125 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 1: Jabar Chase actually was able to catch a ball without 126 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 1: stripes on it. I thought this was kind of fantastic 127 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 1: for him, and all joking aside, I felt really happy 128 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:19,200 Speaker 1: for him. He was a fantastic college player. You don't 129 00:06:19,279 --> 00:06:22,279 Speaker 1: just forget how to catch a ball. Something was going 130 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 1: on there, and I feel really really happy that he 131 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 1: was able to put this, uh, you know, put that 132 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:31,720 Speaker 1: preseason behind him and play well. But are we upgrading Cincinnati, 133 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:35,480 Speaker 1: And if so, how much? Not very much. We are 134 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 1: upgrading Cincinnati. The numbers over getting Cincinnati not a huge 135 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:41,279 Speaker 1: upgrade here, But if you think about the way that 136 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:44,480 Speaker 1: game win, it took a pretty good effort for Minnesota 137 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:48,080 Speaker 1: to come back in that game. Cincinnati was dominating the 138 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 1: game from most of the game, but Minnesota was able 139 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 1: to come back on it. Now, Cincinnati did win at 140 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:55,599 Speaker 1: the end, but if you look at the overall statistics 141 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 1: and the efficiency of the statistics, that's what's gonna upgrade 142 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:01,919 Speaker 1: Cincinnati here. As far as the numbers going in the 143 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:03,719 Speaker 1: game was split for US. It was a no play, 144 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 1: so they could have win either way. As far as 145 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:08,520 Speaker 1: numbers sitting at the end of the day, it could 146 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:10,720 Speaker 1: have win either way. Right, They won overtime in the 147 00:07:10,760 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 1: field go, So the game did what it was supposed 148 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:15,600 Speaker 1: to do. That's not why, since he gets the upgrade. 149 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:17,600 Speaker 1: Since he gets the upgrade tympically because they were so 150 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 1: much more efficient than the numbers had them projected going 151 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:23,680 Speaker 1: in again, not a good football team, not gonna be 152 00:07:23,680 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 1: a good football team, nothing to go crazy about. But good, 153 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:29,560 Speaker 1: good opening win for them for sure, all right, very good. 154 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:33,800 Speaker 1: And then finally the Chargers. How do you judge a 155 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:36,800 Speaker 1: team that wins a game when the other team's quarterback 156 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:41,400 Speaker 1: kind of gets banged up. Yeah, the reason why the 157 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:43,560 Speaker 1: Chargers are getting this is actually the most It was 158 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:46,880 Speaker 1: the most impressive victory to me of the entire weekend 159 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 1: and to quite frankly a lot of our brothren in 160 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 1: the Sharp community because Washington was the most played team 161 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 1: in the Super contest. So a lot of people, you know, 162 00:07:56,880 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 1: are constituents that are in that super contest in Vegas. 163 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 1: You know a lot of us were on Washington, and 164 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 1: you know, the Chargers went in there and they won 165 00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:09,440 Speaker 1: the football game. Now, there was a moment where, you know, 166 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:14,680 Speaker 1: the Washington football team got a turnover in the red zone, 167 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 1: got the ball back, killed the momentum Chargers head. They 168 00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:19,440 Speaker 1: also had the lead, but then Gibson coughs it up 169 00:08:19,440 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 1: at like their own five yard line or the next 170 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 1: play that turned the game. And that's where Chargers went 171 00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:28,600 Speaker 1: on to win. So the game itself could have went 172 00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 1: either way. But again from a statistics standpoint, from an 173 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 1: efficiency standpoint, the Chargers were so much better than the 174 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:40,120 Speaker 1: football team. It's not even close. And if you looked 175 00:08:40,120 --> 00:08:42,280 Speaker 1: at if you just watched the game, you know that 176 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 1: great defensive line for Washington, it is a great defensive line. 177 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 1: They barely even sniffed, you know, justin Herbert the entire game. 178 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 1: And he was able to sit back then throwing them 179 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 1: and he was pretty good. Like he wasn't wasn't the 180 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:57,200 Speaker 1: best we've ever seen, jargon Herbry, but he was pretty 181 00:08:57,200 --> 00:09:01,400 Speaker 1: good for his first real road game. Uh. Really really 182 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 1: impressed with the Charges that I Like I said a 183 00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:06,199 Speaker 1: lot of our constituents in Vegas were really impressed with 184 00:09:06,280 --> 00:09:11,720 Speaker 1: him too. Man Rashawn Slater did not allow Chase Young 185 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:16,280 Speaker 1: to get near the quarterback, and you know he just 186 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:19,960 Speaker 1: he was there and then you know he was there. 187 00:09:20,600 --> 00:09:23,360 Speaker 1: Derwin James, Oh you're talking about for the oh, for 188 00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 1: the Cowboys, he was there. Yeah, I think tackles probably 189 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:29,680 Speaker 1: more valuable than linebacker. I mean, I'm again, I'm not 190 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:33,000 Speaker 1: a scout or a personnel guy, but just don't play 191 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 1: one on the radio. You don't need to be man. 192 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:40,719 Speaker 1: Just just make it up as you go along. That's 193 00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 1: kind of what I do. Well, I'll tell you somebody 194 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:45,079 Speaker 1: who's not making it up is Derwin James. That dude 195 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 1: hasn't played football in two years after a rookie year 196 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:50,840 Speaker 1: where he was the first team All Pro as a rookie. Yeah, 197 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:53,599 Speaker 1: he was the number one rated safety and all of 198 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 1: football after Week one by PFF. That dude looks like 199 00:09:56,840 --> 00:10:00,040 Speaker 1: he hasn't missed a single beat and he is a 200 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,840 Speaker 1: true game changer in the back end of that Charger's defense. 201 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 1: If that guy's healthy. And I'll just say this right now, 202 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:08,360 Speaker 1: my partner, James over the football glory hole. He picked 203 00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 1: the Chargers to win this division preseason. Wow. Kind of shocking. Yeah, 204 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:14,240 Speaker 1: that's how much faith he has in this team and 205 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:16,200 Speaker 1: this roster. I think he's a little bit out of 206 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:18,439 Speaker 1: his mind. But you know what, if they could protect 207 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:21,840 Speaker 1: Herbert like that and James says healthy all year, they 208 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:25,000 Speaker 1: got a puncher's chance. I'll say that. Yeah, they absolutely do. 209 00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:28,960 Speaker 1: All right, let's go to some downgrades. One of these teams. 210 00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:33,240 Speaker 1: I am forever disappointed in one of them. I think 211 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:36,679 Speaker 1: just had a bad week. Well, two of them, I 212 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:39,280 Speaker 1: think had a bad week. And then there's two others 213 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:41,080 Speaker 1: on this list that I you know, one of them 214 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 1: I wonder about regression, and the other one I just 215 00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:45,280 Speaker 1: you know, they've been good for so long. Yeah, let's 216 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:49,000 Speaker 1: just start about the first one. Listen. I will never 217 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:55,200 Speaker 1: understand how a team that has so many weapons can 218 00:10:55,440 --> 00:11:01,800 Speaker 1: never win. And that's Atlanta day. Like since the Super Bowl, 219 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:04,480 Speaker 1: they cannot figure out a way to get out of 220 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:11,080 Speaker 1: their own way, right, they're still hungover from that game. Like, 221 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:15,280 Speaker 1: trade Matt Please, trade Matt Ryan to a place where 222 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:19,559 Speaker 1: he might have a chance again. Yeah, if you get 223 00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:21,880 Speaker 1: anybody to take him at this point, that's the problem 224 00:11:21,920 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 1: with that one. Now, this game was a zero delta 225 00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:27,200 Speaker 1: in our power right, So, and I know everybody's gonna 226 00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 1: go crazy nuts over Philly, but Atlanta was already our 227 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 1: best bet in the South in the preseason to go 228 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:36,600 Speaker 1: under the seven and a half. They're not a very 229 00:11:36,640 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 1: good football team. They're not gonna be a very good 230 00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:41,280 Speaker 1: football team. So Philly beat not a very good football team, 231 00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:44,720 Speaker 1: but again, Philly's not a very good football team either, 232 00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:46,960 Speaker 1: or we don't think they're gonna be. And they were 233 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:51,240 Speaker 1: zero point delta. So they did way way outperformed expectations. 234 00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 1: Is why Atlanta gets the downgrade now, and they performed work. 235 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know how any amount of data 236 00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:02,319 Speaker 1: could predict that Philly was going to perform over expectations 237 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:04,600 Speaker 1: that way they could win the game. But that was 238 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:07,120 Speaker 1: just a whipping. Now, your boy, Matt Ryan shop he's 239 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 1: speaking of that has gotten progressively worse over the last 240 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 1: few years. You know, I've talked about it. In twenty 241 00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:15,839 Speaker 1: nineteen he was fourteenth EPA plus CPOE. You know, that's 242 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 1: just above league average. Last year he was nineteenth, so 243 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:21,800 Speaker 1: just below league average, just below a rookie and Joe 244 00:12:21,840 --> 00:12:25,319 Speaker 1: Burrow on a terrible team. And in Sunday he threw 245 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:27,640 Speaker 1: Froe hundred and sixty four yards on thirty five attempts. 246 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 1: So I know he's still capable of having great games 247 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 1: here and there. I know it's in there. I know 248 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:37,360 Speaker 1: because he's qbr is still it's got a really high 249 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 1: floor to it. He doesn't have his ceiling anymore though. 250 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 1: His ceiling's gone. Yeah, and those great performances are becoming 251 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 1: less and less frequent. And again at Atlanta is just 252 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:49,240 Speaker 1: not gonna be a very good football team. But that 253 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:51,280 Speaker 1: was even worse than I mean, I don't I don't 254 00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:52,840 Speaker 1: see how you could thought they were gonna be that 255 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 1: bad at home to open the season versus again a 256 00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 1: team that's not going to be very good in Philly either. 257 00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:01,600 Speaker 1: So that was pretty That was pretty disappointing, all right, 258 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:04,480 Speaker 1: How about green Bay? Was that just a blip? How 259 00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:06,559 Speaker 1: are we going to judge green Bay after this one? 260 00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:10,440 Speaker 1: So just because the numbers were so bad, they have 261 00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:13,280 Speaker 1: to be downgraded slightly. Now, I'm not gonna go nuts 262 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:15,560 Speaker 1: over it. It It was one game, just like Aaron Rodgers said, 263 00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:19,600 Speaker 1: And quite frankly, you know, it makes nobody smiles more 264 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:22,360 Speaker 1: than me. Probably have Aaron Rodgers struggling, because I really 265 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:25,080 Speaker 1: don't care for that dude much at all. He's a 266 00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:27,679 Speaker 1: great quarterback, when the greatest of all time, but you know, 267 00:13:27,800 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 1: he's kind of a kind of a d bag, so 268 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:33,080 Speaker 1: kind of makes me happy when he struggles. But I 269 00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:35,480 Speaker 1: think there's no way that they don't win this division. 270 00:13:35,520 --> 00:13:37,200 Speaker 1: I don't think there's any way they don't win double 271 00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:40,679 Speaker 1: game or double digits games. I don't think there's any 272 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:42,600 Speaker 1: way they're not there in the end some sort of 273 00:13:42,600 --> 00:13:45,760 Speaker 1: a player. The only way that's even possible is if 274 00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:49,319 Speaker 1: Rogers is truly just checked out and it's just collecting 275 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 1: a paycheck. I can't see. I mean, even even the 276 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 1: kind of dude he is, I can't even say he'll 277 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 1: do that. He would do that, or any professional athlete 278 00:13:56,600 --> 00:13:59,960 Speaker 1: would really do that, So he's easy out of hate. 279 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:02,199 Speaker 1: It was a lot of fun to watch them get whipped. 280 00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:03,960 Speaker 1: But I think at the end of the day, slot 281 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:06,160 Speaker 1: downgrade because again the nut I heard once said he 282 00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:08,360 Speaker 1: could have spiked the ball on every snap. Could he 283 00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:10,839 Speaker 1: would have had a better QBR Like, you're gonna get 284 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 1: downgraded from the data when you do something that bad. 285 00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 1: You are you know? I am. I still think they're 286 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 1: gonna win the division, although the fighting Dan Campbell's are 287 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:25,480 Speaker 1: in first place at oh and one. He's in first 288 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:28,320 Speaker 1: place in that division. I think he's the first Lions 289 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 1: coach to ever be in first place in his after 290 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:33,960 Speaker 1: his first game in the history of that team. Wow, 291 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:37,560 Speaker 1: and he did it by losing the game. Uh, you know, 292 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:40,560 Speaker 1: they're they're they're gonna. I mean, I probably I might 293 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:43,080 Speaker 1: take Green Bay this week with the points over Detroit. 294 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 1: Detroit's had a very good team, even though my boy 295 00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 1: was slinging it all over the field, um after he 296 00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 1: was down about thirty. Yeah, yeah, well you don't. We don't. 297 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:55,960 Speaker 1: We don't believe in garbage time. Analytics say there's no 298 00:14:56,040 --> 00:15:00,280 Speaker 1: such thing as garbage time. Uh so, but yeah he was. 299 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 1: He was slaying it. Man. I couldn't even name you 300 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:05,960 Speaker 1: one receiver. How about Tennesseee, no, no, that that team 301 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:08,560 Speaker 1: is so bad. They're so bad, but they fight. I'll 302 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:10,920 Speaker 1: give him that. They fight. They fought for Dan. I 303 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 1: had him credit on that. How about Tennessee. Yeah, this 304 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:17,080 Speaker 1: is again more of a data downgrade. I still think 305 00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 1: they're a good football team. They have holes obviously defensively, 306 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 1: but you knew that going in, so it's nothing that 307 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 1: we didn't expect. I think the lack of the offensive 308 00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:28,920 Speaker 1: efficiency and firepower that was the shocker to me, and 309 00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:31,120 Speaker 1: I think that was probably the shocker to anybody that 310 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 1: had tennant that we didn't have it. Like I said, 311 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 1: it was a zero play for us. But if you 312 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:37,320 Speaker 1: were back in Tennessee, I mean you could, I could 313 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 1: have made an argument either way, and if if you 314 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:41,120 Speaker 1: were back in Tennessee, you know your argument was going 315 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 1: to be the perpetual underratement of a Ryan Tannehill in 316 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:49,600 Speaker 1: that offense. But man, they looked really, really poor in 317 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 1: that game, So that that was a big shocker. It 318 00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:55,000 Speaker 1: was now who were gonna downgrade more? Between Buffalo and Baltimore. 319 00:15:57,200 --> 00:16:01,520 Speaker 1: I mean the day, I mean, we were on Pittsburgh, 320 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:03,680 Speaker 1: we had Pittsburgh game, we had Vegas on the spread, 321 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 1: so the data told us to take Pittsburgh in Vegas. 322 00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:10,200 Speaker 1: So it's not a shock to us that either team covered, 323 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 1: but it is a shock that they both lost. That 324 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 1: those teams both the underdogs. We took both one. I 325 00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:21,400 Speaker 1: saw Pittsburgh maybe winning, you know, maybe if Ben could play, 326 00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:24,480 Speaker 1: which Ben wasn't good at all. But they did win 327 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 1: the game because that defense, just Allen, he looked like 328 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:32,160 Speaker 1: he looked like two years ago, Josh Allen in that game. 329 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:35,280 Speaker 1: That's one game, but he looked really really bad. The 330 00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:38,240 Speaker 1: Vegas thing, I didn't see them winning. I thought they 331 00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:41,560 Speaker 1: would keep it close, just because if Baltimore can't do 332 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 1: what they normally do and be efficient in the running game. 333 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:48,120 Speaker 1: It's hard for them to sustain leads. You know, if 334 00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:51,080 Speaker 1: any kind of margin, they'll win football games. Because you know, 335 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 1: Lamar has a knack of making plays, you know, when 336 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:57,000 Speaker 1: when the moment's big. When you saw him the one 337 00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,560 Speaker 1: that he had his only real passing completed all game 338 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 1: was crunch time. It was the bomb right to put 339 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:04,000 Speaker 1: on my head, you know. So he just has that 340 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 1: knack that go how to He knows how to win 341 00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:08,640 Speaker 1: football games close ones. And I thought it wasn't gonna 342 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 1: be a close game, and it was a close game. 343 00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:14,120 Speaker 1: But between the between the two, the data did down 344 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:17,480 Speaker 1: Grady Buffalo more just because their offense was less efficient 345 00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:19,920 Speaker 1: than projected. Baltimore pretty much did what Baltimore is gonna do. 346 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 1: You didn't really see anything out of them that they're 347 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:25,359 Speaker 1: not normally going to do. It's just Vegas made a 348 00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:27,000 Speaker 1: few more plays and they won the football game. That's 349 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,239 Speaker 1: pretty much what it came down to, all right. So 350 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:32,600 Speaker 1: there's the upgrades and the downgrades. After week what we 351 00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:36,959 Speaker 1: love to overreact. Overreaction Monday is one of my favorite 352 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:39,240 Speaker 1: days of the year, and now it's it's turned into 353 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 1: you know, late Week one. Between Week one, week two overreactions. 354 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:47,040 Speaker 1: And that's what we just did here on the football 355 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 1: four oh one k look aheadlines. We've got the best bets, 356 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:52,959 Speaker 1: we got some college fits, you got our pizza money parlay. 357 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:55,040 Speaker 1: That's all coming up with the football four oh one K. 358 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:58,080 Speaker 1: Before there was a draft, you could size up a 359 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:01,240 Speaker 1: cowboy by three simple factor the crease at his hat, 360 00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:04,480 Speaker 1: the bend of his brim, and his unbending attitude a man. 361 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:07,440 Speaker 1: Stetson didn't just protect him from what life through at him, 362 00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:12,320 Speaker 1: It projected a rugged, unstoppable spirit. Stetson hats are still American, 363 00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:15,320 Speaker 1: made with pride. Right here in Texas, there's still the 364 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:19,240 Speaker 1: unofficial crowd of all self respecting cowboys, and Stetson is 365 00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:22,080 Speaker 1: proud to be on the field with America's team. Find 366 00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 1: a retailer nearest you at Stetson dot com, slash Cowboys 367 00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:30,520 Speaker 1: the Cowboys Way, where sixteen Hall of Famers and five 368 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:34,440 Speaker 1: championships shows us what success looks like. Where Turkey is 369 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:37,600 Speaker 1: always the second best part of Thanksgiving Day, Where we 370 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:41,840 Speaker 1: are all defined by one single thing, the Star, Where 371 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:44,159 Speaker 1: we as fans know it's our job to keep the 372 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:47,119 Speaker 1: tradition going. Bank of America is proud to be the 373 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:49,960 Speaker 1: official bank of the Dallas Cowboys and to support the 374 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:53,840 Speaker 1: quest of living life the Cowboys Way copyright twenty twenty 375 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:56,880 Speaker 1: Bank of America Corporation. Want to use what the pros use? 376 00:18:57,160 --> 00:19:00,880 Speaker 1: How about the official men's skincare brand of the Dallas Cowboys, 377 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,760 Speaker 1: Jack Black. Right now you can get to Jack Black Starter, 378 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:06,800 Speaker 1: a curated collection of Cowboys locker room favorites, for just 379 00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:10,440 Speaker 1: ten bucks with free shipping. The Starter includes four Jackflack 380 00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:14,160 Speaker 1: skincare favorites plus a full sized and tense therapy lip bomb. 381 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:16,919 Speaker 1: Go to get Jack Black dot com slash Cowboys and 382 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:20,120 Speaker 1: use the code word team JB. That's get Jack Black 383 00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:23,959 Speaker 1: dot com slash Cowboys The Jack Black Starter ten bucks, 384 00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:27,680 Speaker 1: free shipping. Honey, big News, Gary? Are you okay? Oh? 385 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:31,159 Speaker 1: I'm not Gary anymore. I'm Jackie Flash. What see? I 386 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:33,280 Speaker 1: want the latest smartphone, but the best deals are only 387 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:35,360 Speaker 1: for new customers. So to get a new customer deal, 388 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:38,560 Speaker 1: I changed my name to Jackie Flash. Okay, but the 389 00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:40,960 Speaker 1: best smartphone deals at AT and T are for everyone 390 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,879 Speaker 1: new and existing customers. That's huge. Then guess who's getting 391 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 1: the deal? Is it Jackie Flash? Jackie Flash? It's not 392 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:51,720 Speaker 1: complicated at at and t our. Best smartphone deals are 393 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:55,000 Speaker 1: for everyone. Restrictions apply. Is it att dot com for details. 394 00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:59,680 Speaker 1: Back to football four oh one K, R J Choppy 395 00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:02,960 Speaker 1: and bow Rep go with you on the football four 396 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:05,879 Speaker 1: oh one K. We have our best bets still to 397 00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:08,920 Speaker 1: get to today. We also have our pizza Bunny parlay 398 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 1: and the little bit of overreactioning as we will to 399 00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:16,040 Speaker 1: weak one. But let's take a look at the look aheads. 400 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:19,640 Speaker 1: How did we view some of these lines in training 401 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:23,479 Speaker 1: camp before the season started versus how they are now 402 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,560 Speaker 1: after the first week of the season. Bow, Yeah, we 403 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:29,679 Speaker 1: got a few that have moved quite a bit shop 404 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:32,280 Speaker 1: And if you think that that sway too early, like 405 00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:35,159 Speaker 1: the training camp lines, I'll just say this, Other than 406 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,920 Speaker 1: the ones I'm about to mention, every other single one 407 00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:40,679 Speaker 1: is within one point or less of still where that 408 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:43,600 Speaker 1: line was, So I promise you those lines are pretty 409 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:45,480 Speaker 1: accurate for the most part. So this is really where 410 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:48,280 Speaker 1: you get the value on what moves the most, and 411 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:51,720 Speaker 1: it's mostly unless it's an injury, right so starting quarterback, 412 00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:55,080 Speaker 1: which we really haven't had anything significant so far this year, thankfully, 413 00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:57,720 Speaker 1: It's mostly just what the public scene and where the 414 00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:00,720 Speaker 1: market's going so first up then is now a six 415 00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:04,720 Speaker 1: point favorite in Jacksonville. They were a one and a 416 00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:07,640 Speaker 1: half point favorite when this line first up. When that's 417 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:10,320 Speaker 1: four and a half points worth a movement off of 418 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:15,120 Speaker 1: one game. Huge market swing here, I'm not really sure 419 00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:18,560 Speaker 1: it's justified that choppy. And you know, we did say 420 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:20,680 Speaker 1: last week the Houston was gonna win their only football 421 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:24,280 Speaker 1: game of the year versus Jacksonville right here on this program. No, 422 00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:26,960 Speaker 1: we're not from the future. I've gotten that asked to 423 00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 1: me a few times. Also, I don't know when the 424 00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:30,960 Speaker 1: Cowboys gonna win their Super Bowl next or when the 425 00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:34,119 Speaker 1: mcribb is coming back, but we are pretty good at 426 00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:39,080 Speaker 1: predicting football games, and this market is it's out of line. Now, 427 00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:42,960 Speaker 1: I've got a huge trend. To illustrate all this Epployer 428 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:45,119 Speaker 1: together when we get done. That's line number one that 429 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 1: has moved a ton Number two. The Rams are now 430 00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:51,199 Speaker 1: minus four in Indy. This was Indy minus one and 431 00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:53,920 Speaker 1: a half. Now, that was before all the injuries. It 432 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,200 Speaker 1: wins injury stuff, but we've seen him play a game now, 433 00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:58,399 Speaker 1: so it's still five and a half points of movement. 434 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:02,919 Speaker 1: That is huge grade downgrade on Rams Indie that is 435 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:07,119 Speaker 1: a big, big move. Tampa Bay now hosting Atlanta minus thirteen, 436 00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:10,239 Speaker 1: they remind us nine and a half, so it got 437 00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:12,240 Speaker 1: to four and a half points worse than nine and 438 00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:15,440 Speaker 1: a half. Again, I think this downgrade is almost all 439 00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:19,280 Speaker 1: on Atlanta's part. Yeah, I will say, though, well, I'll 440 00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:23,520 Speaker 1: say on the sharper side of things, Tampa should have covered. Now. 441 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:25,399 Speaker 1: I ended up betting with you chop you like the 442 00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,240 Speaker 1: cows last week plus the nine points, and it got 443 00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:29,720 Speaker 1: to nine and a half. I take sad night. I 444 00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:31,760 Speaker 1: was like, yeah, I'm with you, this is silly. I'm 445 00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 1: going with the Cowboys. Let's go. But yeah, I mean, 446 00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:40,200 Speaker 1: here's the here, here's my thinking. You know, people will 447 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:44,840 Speaker 1: we are all guilty of recency bias, right right, and 448 00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:48,000 Speaker 1: people were just going to overrate the Tampa run. They 449 00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:50,439 Speaker 1: were not world beaters last year during the regular season, 450 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:53,560 Speaker 1: they were good, but they weren't world beaters. And the 451 00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:55,159 Speaker 1: other thing is that, you know, teams that throw the 452 00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,720 Speaker 1: ball well typically don't lose NFL games by more than 453 00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:01,720 Speaker 1: seven or eight points. So I think I thought it 454 00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:04,440 Speaker 1: should have been four or five. Yeah, And at the 455 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:06,880 Speaker 1: end of the day, you were right. Uh. The only 456 00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:08,840 Speaker 1: thing I'll add to that is on the sharper side 457 00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:11,320 Speaker 1: of it, why Tampa Bay might getting in getting a 458 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,480 Speaker 1: slide market upgrade here is in the Bobby belt with 459 00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:16,560 Speaker 1: this great set out. Tampa was the first team to 460 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,840 Speaker 1: ever lose a game where they had a minus three 461 00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:22,760 Speaker 1: to turnover totra differential, a hundred yards of a penalties 462 00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:25,880 Speaker 1: and give up over four hundred yards on defense and 463 00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:29,080 Speaker 1: they still won, which is good. On the sharper side, 464 00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:31,000 Speaker 1: that tells you they're a really good football team, right, 465 00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:33,239 Speaker 1: And a lot of you know, people can say, well, 466 00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:35,520 Speaker 1: if it wasn't for the offensive pi, wasn't for the 467 00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:39,000 Speaker 1: missfield goals. Yeah, you gotta get fortunate to win a 468 00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:41,000 Speaker 1: game in a way that nobody's ever won a game. 469 00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:43,000 Speaker 1: You gotta get a little bit lucky. But you have 470 00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,440 Speaker 1: to be really good to be in position to win 471 00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:48,240 Speaker 1: a game wheneverything goes that long. That's the main thing. 472 00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,680 Speaker 1: So that's the side that nobody's really looking at it from, 473 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:53,160 Speaker 1: is the side that you do have to be good 474 00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,679 Speaker 1: just to be in position to take advantage of a 475 00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:59,640 Speaker 1: few breaks, which they absolutely did get so a little 476 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:01,320 Speaker 1: I think it's a little bit both mostly down grid 477 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:05,280 Speaker 1: Atlanta there though Seattle, they're now minus five and a 478 00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:07,359 Speaker 1: half host in Tennessee this line was three and a half. 479 00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 1: That's two points where at the movement maybe a little 480 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:13,399 Speaker 1: bit more than some people would expect here and choppy. 481 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:15,680 Speaker 1: I just wanted to ask you, your big Russell Wilson 482 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:18,080 Speaker 1: God so am I, but why do you think that 483 00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:21,480 Speaker 1: Russ plays so well in the very Because I talked 484 00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:25,760 Speaker 1: about Carla earlier being second in MVP odds in Vegas, 485 00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,199 Speaker 1: Russ was the number one odds on favor to win 486 00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:30,480 Speaker 1: the MVP for the first eight nine weeks last season. 487 00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:32,119 Speaker 1: It seems like he does this every year, but then 488 00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:34,639 Speaker 1: he fades. Why do you think the reason for that is? 489 00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:36,359 Speaker 1: That's a good question. I don't know, because you know, 490 00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:38,560 Speaker 1: he doesn't have small hands, so it's not a cold 491 00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 1: weather thing where you can't grip the football. Jared Goff's 492 00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:45,560 Speaker 1: got smaller hands. Not I mean, he's six or five, 493 00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:49,080 Speaker 1: so it's tiny, tiny hands, but smaller. I really don't 494 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:51,840 Speaker 1: know what the reasoning is. I can't figure it out, 495 00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:54,399 Speaker 1: but he was he was in line for an MVP 496 00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:57,640 Speaker 1: last year and then you know, they let Russ cook 497 00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:01,040 Speaker 1: and he burnt the damn meal. It was it was wild. Yeah, 498 00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:03,359 Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't have a good theory on 499 00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:05,760 Speaker 1: it either. I mean, just if you correlate those two together, 500 00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:08,359 Speaker 1: maybe they're both smaller guys and all the running around 501 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:10,800 Speaker 1: and all the things they have to do to be successful, 502 00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:13,600 Speaker 1: or just not just the way they play the game. 503 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:16,120 Speaker 1: I guess maybe it takes a toll on them after 504 00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:18,400 Speaker 1: eight or nine weeks. I don't know, because for either 505 00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,760 Speaker 1: one of those guys, Steven me playing the NFL is insane. 506 00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:23,520 Speaker 1: That just tells you what great athletes they are and 507 00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:25,760 Speaker 1: how good they have to be played quarterback at that 508 00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:28,560 Speaker 1: size to even be in the league is nuts, And 509 00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:32,480 Speaker 1: to be successful as Russell Wilson's ben is a different 510 00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:34,560 Speaker 1: level of nuts. So I don't know the reason either. 511 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:36,760 Speaker 1: I can't put my finger on it. I mean, the dude, 512 00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:38,600 Speaker 1: I mean, at any given Sunday, he could look like 513 00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:40,719 Speaker 1: the best quarterbacker group of senior life. So I don't know. 514 00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:45,520 Speaker 1: Unrated movie, by the way, what's that any given Sunday? 515 00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:53,800 Speaker 1: Was that the one where Yeaco and the Steam and 516 00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:57,040 Speaker 1: Willie Beamon, Oh, Stephen, Willie Beamon has the Ladies? Uh? Yeah, 517 00:25:57,040 --> 00:25:59,480 Speaker 1: I won't finished up. But anyway, I said Cameron Diz 518 00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:04,640 Speaker 1: was hot that movie. She was pretty. Kansas City now 519 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:06,879 Speaker 1: at three and a half point favorite in Baltimore, this 520 00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:09,399 Speaker 1: game was a pickle. This is three and a half 521 00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:11,880 Speaker 1: points where the movement and Shabby I said, I thought 522 00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:15,520 Speaker 1: Baltimore slightly got downgraded. Vegas is telling us that they 523 00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:18,560 Speaker 1: got hugely downgraded. Because there's no way you can upgrade 524 00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:20,880 Speaker 1: Kansas City three and a half points after not covering 525 00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:24,040 Speaker 1: again against the Browns. It has to be a huge 526 00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:27,680 Speaker 1: downnggrade on Baltimore. Man, I'm struggling to see a big downgrade, 527 00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:30,080 Speaker 1: but the market says it is. So this is another 528 00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:33,119 Speaker 1: one of those games that I don't know about. And 529 00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:35,840 Speaker 1: then the last one, Yeah, that is that is interesting 530 00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:37,600 Speaker 1: because this can't be Kansas City upgrade. It's got to 531 00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:41,119 Speaker 1: be Baltimore downgraded. I would imagine you're right on Tampa 532 00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:47,920 Speaker 1: Bay Atlanta. It's more Atlanta being downgraded. It's probably Indie 533 00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:52,840 Speaker 1: being downgraded in the RAMS situation and the Rams being 534 00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:57,840 Speaker 1: upgraded too. Yeah, that's big upgrade. And then Denver Jacksonville. 535 00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:00,639 Speaker 1: I mean, that's got to be all Jacksonville. I mean 536 00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:05,439 Speaker 1: Denver one, I know, but it was Yeah, Yeah, you're right, 537 00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:07,680 Speaker 1: It's why a lot of Denver too. The only thing, 538 00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:10,160 Speaker 1: the only other thing I think on the Casey Baltimore 539 00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:15,159 Speaker 1: thing is ifs Kansas City become the new Dallas. About that, 540 00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:18,520 Speaker 1: I mean, the Cowboys historically get a lot of love 541 00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:21,480 Speaker 1: in the in the betting marketplace in Vegas. Yeah, the 542 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,399 Speaker 1: last couple of years, shoppy, we haven't seen as much 543 00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:27,440 Speaker 1: of that. They've been pretty haven't. We haven't bet on 544 00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:29,360 Speaker 1: the Cowboys for or against a lot of the last 545 00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:31,920 Speaker 1: couple of years. It hasn't been any value, which is 546 00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,800 Speaker 1: very strange. Like I said, historically, but Kansas City now 547 00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,360 Speaker 1: they tend to get over inflated every single week, and 548 00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:40,719 Speaker 1: they did not, but they were not successful last year 549 00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:42,840 Speaker 1: against to spread, which happens when you get a little 550 00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:45,560 Speaker 1: too much love in the marketplace. Are they the team 551 00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:47,679 Speaker 1: that you know are pretty easy fade every Sunday, Not 552 00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:49,480 Speaker 1: that they're gonna lose a lot of football games, but 553 00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:52,000 Speaker 1: you know, if you don't cover, that's a chance for 554 00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:53,960 Speaker 1: you to make money. Agains. Seems that aren't going to cover, 555 00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:57,640 Speaker 1: So I thought about that too. And then the last one, 556 00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:00,560 Speaker 1: then green Bay is ten and a half points. That's 557 00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:02,320 Speaker 1: this line was seven and a half. So that's a 558 00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:05,600 Speaker 1: three four points for a team that got blown out 559 00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:09,040 Speaker 1: versus another team that you know in all reality, Detroit 560 00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:12,159 Speaker 1: got blown out, but they did come back to Uh 561 00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:16,000 Speaker 1: bad man, if you had if you had sen franmics nine, 562 00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,480 Speaker 1: that's a bad, bad beat, And I feel bad for you, 563 00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:22,160 Speaker 1: oh man. But Vegas is telling you right there three 564 00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:24,960 Speaker 1: point movement, do not sell your packerstock just yet, which 565 00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:26,880 Speaker 1: is what you and I said earlier. So I think 566 00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,200 Speaker 1: we're riding in line with what Vegas is expecting there. 567 00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:32,600 Speaker 1: But that's still a huge, huge piece of movement there. 568 00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:37,359 Speaker 1: On that Green Bay game. We would you touch that game? Uh? Well, 569 00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:39,600 Speaker 1: I'm about to give you a trend that that might 570 00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:42,239 Speaker 1: make you think about it. Normally I wouldn't, but this 571 00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:44,800 Speaker 1: is the trend that's gonna tie all this together. So 572 00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:49,560 Speaker 1: since twenty fourteen, and this is uh sample size of 573 00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:53,280 Speaker 1: forty nine games, so quite a few games, sixty point 574 00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:55,400 Speaker 1: four percent of teams that lost by double digits in 575 00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:57,920 Speaker 1: week one go on to cover the spread in week two, 576 00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:06,600 Speaker 1: sixty point four ten. Say it again, Since twenty fourteen, 577 00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:10,240 Speaker 1: sixty point four percent of teams that lost by double 578 00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:13,120 Speaker 1: digits in week one go on to cover the spread 579 00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:16,880 Speaker 1: in week two, and forty seven percent of those same 580 00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:20,000 Speaker 1: teams win the game straight up in week two, so 581 00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:23,120 Speaker 1: six out of every ten cover, about five out of 582 00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:26,880 Speaker 1: every ten win the next week. Now there are seven 583 00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:30,520 Speaker 1: teams that qualify for that this week. You've got Atlanta, 584 00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:34,760 Speaker 1: you got Tennessee, you got Indie, you got Jacksonville, Green Bay, 585 00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:39,680 Speaker 1: Chicago and the Giants. So historically, what that means is 586 00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:43,280 Speaker 1: four out of those seven should cover, and three of 587 00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:46,480 Speaker 1: them basically should win straight up three to three and 588 00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:49,160 Speaker 1: a half, but either three or four, so four should cover, 589 00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:52,800 Speaker 1: three should win just on average. So if you pair 590 00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:56,000 Speaker 1: those that trend with the games that I just mentioned 591 00:29:56,800 --> 00:30:00,120 Speaker 1: the biggest market movements, you have Atlanta getting moved we've 592 00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:03,480 Speaker 1: done pretty heavy. You have Tennessee getting moved on heavy. 593 00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:09,440 Speaker 1: You have Jacksonville, and you got green Bay. So that's one, two, three, four, 594 00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:13,920 Speaker 1: five huge movements, four teams. Remember that seven I'm gonna cover. 595 00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:16,480 Speaker 1: So you start to see how it all kind of 596 00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:20,560 Speaker 1: comes together and why a trend becomes a trend if 597 00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:24,040 Speaker 1: it's a legit trend, which choppy. Most trends are not legitimate. 598 00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:28,520 Speaker 1: They're you know, random, coincidental, you know, they come and 599 00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:31,560 Speaker 1: go through sample size. But when you get underlying data 600 00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:34,840 Speaker 1: that correlates and it's a good sample size, which again 601 00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:38,000 Speaker 1: this is forty nine games, it's through twenty fourteen, really 602 00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:41,000 Speaker 1: good sample size, it starts to paint a sharper picture 603 00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:45,960 Speaker 1: of why trends become and trends start to form. Because historically, 604 00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:48,520 Speaker 1: like we said last week, like we're standing in this week, 605 00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:51,960 Speaker 1: those teams the first impression, first public impression, they get 606 00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:55,360 Speaker 1: blown out. Guess what, they get undervalued the next week 607 00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:58,440 Speaker 1: against the spread, and then they end up covering sixty 608 00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:01,320 Speaker 1: percent of the time then next week. So if you 609 00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:03,240 Speaker 1: just bet historically, if you just bet all seven of 610 00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:06,120 Speaker 1: those teams blindly this week, you're probably going four and three. 611 00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:08,720 Speaker 1: You're gonna walk away with some cash. Right. But again, 612 00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:11,080 Speaker 1: if you want to sharpen up even more, the five 613 00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:15,680 Speaker 1: I just mentioned of the seven, probably your bigger chances 614 00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:18,760 Speaker 1: to cover out of the seven because the market has 615 00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:23,040 Speaker 1: moved so much against them, which creates right that delta, 616 00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:26,280 Speaker 1: which gives you the maximum value. So that's how it 617 00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,400 Speaker 1: all kind of comes together. Can you talk about such 618 00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:32,400 Speaker 1: underlying data and a great trend like that? So I'm 619 00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:35,160 Speaker 1: pretty excited about this week, Shoppy. That's great stuff. Man. 620 00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:39,080 Speaker 1: I love that little trend right there. Okay, so again, 621 00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:43,200 Speaker 1: since twenty fourteen, forty nine games, sixty percent of teams 622 00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:45,680 Speaker 1: that lose by ten or more going to cover the 623 00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:48,760 Speaker 1: spread in week two, and forty seven percent of those 624 00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:52,200 Speaker 1: teams win straight up. Awesome, awesome stuff. This is the 625 00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:55,200 Speaker 1: football four oh one K. We still gotta get our 626 00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:57,280 Speaker 1: bets in. We gotta give you our betting card for 627 00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:59,920 Speaker 1: the week. We gotta give you a pizza money parlay. 628 00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:02,480 Speaker 1: You make your money off ten dollars. We're gonna do 629 00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,960 Speaker 1: that next to the football four oh one K r 630 00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:09,360 Speaker 1: J Choppy bo Repka football four oh one k. It 631 00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:12,440 Speaker 1: is time to make some picks. Let's do it. How 632 00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:14,960 Speaker 1: about some best bets of the National Football League before 633 00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:18,120 Speaker 1: we get into college in our pizza money parlay. Yeah so, 634 00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:21,480 Speaker 1: National Football League. So a little exciting announcement this week, 635 00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:24,400 Speaker 1: We're gonna start posting a picture of our actual ticket 636 00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:28,440 Speaker 1: for the Westgates Super Contest on our Twitter account before 637 00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:31,760 Speaker 1: the noon kickoff. That's at FGH Vegas Sunday morning before 638 00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:36,000 Speaker 1: noon kicks. Now here's a disclaimer though, on that the 639 00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:38,840 Speaker 1: lines in this contest are stale. In other words, when 640 00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:40,440 Speaker 1: we get the original lines, that's the lines that we 641 00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,440 Speaker 1: pick off of. Sometimes it goes for us, sometimes it 642 00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:44,920 Speaker 1: goes against us. We have to make decisions based on that. 643 00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:48,440 Speaker 1: A good example is last week we selected San Francisco 644 00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:51,880 Speaker 1: plus seven and a half. Now we obviously covered we 645 00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:54,080 Speaker 1: didn't get the bad into the bad beat. But if 646 00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:56,360 Speaker 1: you would have taken that Sunday when I posted it, 647 00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:58,200 Speaker 1: you would have got it nine or nine and a half. 648 00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:00,880 Speaker 1: You would have got beat on that. So just remember 649 00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:02,560 Speaker 1: when you're looking at this, if you can't get the 650 00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:05,320 Speaker 1: better end of the number, please don't take the pick. 651 00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:10,720 Speaker 1: Numbers matter a lot, especially in NFL. Every little single 652 00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:12,880 Speaker 1: number matters. Maybe not so much in college or I 653 00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:14,560 Speaker 1: mean it does. You always want the better number, but 654 00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:17,560 Speaker 1: an NFL it is paramount. So in another example, that 655 00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:20,400 Speaker 1: was Carolina, who we had we given out to our 656 00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:22,440 Speaker 1: clients on a real live pick. They were minus four. 657 00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:24,680 Speaker 1: We didn't take them in the contest because they were 658 00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:26,600 Speaker 1: minus five in the contest. Or that's an example of 659 00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:29,280 Speaker 1: a stale line moving against us, right, we didn't We 660 00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:31,600 Speaker 1: wanted to take Carolina, but we're not going to take 661 00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:33,640 Speaker 1: the worst number when there's a better number out there. 662 00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:36,160 Speaker 1: So again, if we would have taken Carolina would have 663 00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:37,520 Speaker 1: been two, two and one. It's to the three and 664 00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:39,520 Speaker 1: two in the contest. So you can just see how 665 00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:41,800 Speaker 1: much numbers matter. Even if it's not a key number 666 00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:44,760 Speaker 1: three and seven, four and five, that would have cost 667 00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:47,720 Speaker 1: us to win, right, So you just don't play numbers 668 00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:50,080 Speaker 1: if they're not your best, if it's not the best 669 00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:53,080 Speaker 1: number available, then if you know what to say, Hey, 670 00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:55,280 Speaker 1: I like this team, but i'd like to do this number, 671 00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:59,280 Speaker 1: I'm gonna pass. You know, no big dealers. The one 672 00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:02,000 Speaker 1: advantage that the books have on you is that minus 673 00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:04,680 Speaker 1: one ten, right, Yeah, but they can't make you play 674 00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:06,680 Speaker 1: every game, so I don't have to play every game. 675 00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:08,640 Speaker 1: That's advantage that you have as a player. You play 676 00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:12,239 Speaker 1: what you want to play exactly, right, Hey, before we 677 00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:16,439 Speaker 1: get into the college games, Cowboys are a three point dog, 678 00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:19,319 Speaker 1: at least they were against the Chargers. How do you 679 00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:22,839 Speaker 1: see that? How does how does the model see that game? 680 00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,520 Speaker 1: This is a split game for us on this one. 681 00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:31,120 Speaker 1: It was a split game last week against Tampa Bay. 682 00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:35,520 Speaker 1: And I think the reason why wherever the whole other 683 00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:38,200 Speaker 1: world was on Tampa Bay is because we were never 684 00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:42,200 Speaker 1: that down on the Cowboys in our initial preseason rankings, 685 00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:47,160 Speaker 1: and because I just didn't believe that Dak wasn't gonna 686 00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:50,320 Speaker 1: be at least effective. Obviously he was more than effective. 687 00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:52,680 Speaker 1: He threw for four hundred yards, whatever he did. I know, 688 00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:55,160 Speaker 1: Pro Football foot Focus didn't grade him as high as 689 00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:58,279 Speaker 1: they normally do, but you know what, one game was 690 00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:01,040 Speaker 1: one game and he still you know, he almost won 691 00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:03,960 Speaker 1: a football game. So yeah, I wonder why they downgraded 692 00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:05,239 Speaker 1: him a little bit because he only got like a 693 00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:08,200 Speaker 1: seventy eight, which still very good. Yeah, it's not the 694 00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:11,560 Speaker 1: elite category. You're You're way more versed in the PF 695 00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,719 Speaker 1: grades than im, that's for sure. That's not really something 696 00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:16,520 Speaker 1: I follow a lot of. But I do pay attention 697 00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:18,760 Speaker 1: just to kind of see if my eyes are matching, 698 00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:21,440 Speaker 1: you know, what their eyes are matching. Just to make 699 00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:22,920 Speaker 1: sure that I'm not seeing a kind of fools gold 700 00:35:23,000 --> 00:35:26,080 Speaker 1: or that I'm not being too critical in certain situations 701 00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:28,680 Speaker 1: as well. Kind of keeps bias from you know, kind 702 00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:30,200 Speaker 1: of creeping in at all. So I like that's the 703 00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:32,160 Speaker 1: reason why I like PFF is I don't think they 704 00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:35,600 Speaker 1: have any buyas. But I mean to me, again, the Charger. 705 00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:38,400 Speaker 1: That was the most impressive win was the Chargers, but 706 00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:41,560 Speaker 1: the Cowboys might have been the most impressive cover, you know, 707 00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:45,040 Speaker 1: of the entire weekend. So I don't I don't think that. 708 00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:47,520 Speaker 1: I mean, you get a slot upgrade the Chargers. The 709 00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:50,880 Speaker 1: numbers didn't upgrade the Cowboys at all, just because you know, 710 00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:53,080 Speaker 1: they were helped out by all the turnovers and they 711 00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:55,520 Speaker 1: weren't really that efficient, especially on defense. They were pretty 712 00:35:55,520 --> 00:36:00,680 Speaker 1: putrid actually. But you know, the the line was two 713 00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:02,520 Speaker 1: and a half, and that the same lines that we 714 00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:04,400 Speaker 1: gave you guys at the beginning or in the one 715 00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:06,319 Speaker 1: segment it was minus two and a half before training camp. 716 00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:08,920 Speaker 1: It's minus three. You tell about half a point. You 717 00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:10,840 Speaker 1: know that half a point could be it for Homefield 718 00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:12,920 Speaker 1: Avantage at this point, because now Vegas knows it is 719 00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:15,200 Speaker 1: gonna be full. Crowds their nuts, people are going crazy. 720 00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:17,920 Speaker 1: That could just simply be from having a full stadium 721 00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:21,040 Speaker 1: where Vegas didn't maybe know for sure before that half 722 00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:23,000 Speaker 1: point could be nothing to do about the game at all. 723 00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:25,759 Speaker 1: So I think it's one of those games. If you 724 00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:30,640 Speaker 1: liked the Chargers before Sunday, then you still should like them. 725 00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:32,640 Speaker 1: If you like the Cowboys, before Sunday, then you still 726 00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:35,200 Speaker 1: should like them. I don't think either game, either performance 727 00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:37,719 Speaker 1: Week one should alter your thinking at all in this game. 728 00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:40,280 Speaker 1: All right, let's take a lookle some college games then 729 00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:45,080 Speaker 1: Army against Yukon. Army is late thirty three man. Yukon 730 00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:48,879 Speaker 1: is creeping up into Kansas territory where you can't make 731 00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:52,719 Speaker 1: the line big enough. Oh, they have surpassed our good 732 00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:58,520 Speaker 1: Jayhawks in Kansas Shoppy Since twenty fifteen, Yukon is the 733 00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:01,480 Speaker 1: worst ATS team in FBS, with a cover rate of 734 00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:08,399 Speaker 1: thirty three percent against the spread covering now so far 735 00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:12,600 Speaker 1: this year, they've played two FBS teams. They're owing two 736 00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:16,360 Speaker 1: despite being a dog, owing to Ats despite being a 737 00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:19,080 Speaker 1: dog with twenty seven and a half and thirty five 738 00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:22,879 Speaker 1: And if it wouldn't if that wasn't bad enough, they 739 00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:26,320 Speaker 1: haven't scored a point yet Choppy against an FBS team, 740 00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:31,520 Speaker 1: not one point. So that is about as bad as 741 00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:35,040 Speaker 1: it gets. An army is what army is. They're gonna 742 00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:38,240 Speaker 1: run the ball, They're gonna be machines, They're gonna continue 743 00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:41,400 Speaker 1: to just do what they do. The only way I 744 00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:44,360 Speaker 1: see Army not covering this game is if they have 745 00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:47,359 Speaker 1: a rash of turnovers, but Armies only turn the ball 746 00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:49,360 Speaker 1: or once in two games. Ucon has only taken the 747 00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:51,920 Speaker 1: ball away once in two games. So even as big 748 00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:54,200 Speaker 1: as this line is, just like you said about Kansas, man, 749 00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:56,640 Speaker 1: it's just not big enough. And this line should be 750 00:37:56,680 --> 00:37:59,720 Speaker 1: about forty and Army can run up a score without 751 00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:01,600 Speaker 1: trying to run up the score because once that triple 752 00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:04,920 Speaker 1: option gets rolling and your boys really don't have any 753 00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,680 Speaker 1: you know, iffinity to play the game anymore, they're not 754 00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:09,879 Speaker 1: gonna stop running over you. So they're just gonna keep 755 00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:12,279 Speaker 1: coming now. And they don't throw the ball, so it's 756 00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:15,840 Speaker 1: very low variance in their game plan. I like laying 757 00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:18,480 Speaker 1: thirty three with a low variance team against an absolutely 758 00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:22,640 Speaker 1: horrible FBS team. Love it, absolutely love it. Okay, how 759 00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:27,680 Speaker 1: about Kansas State plus two against the Vada the case 760 00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:31,040 Speaker 1: State's got a quarterback issue, right they do? Their certain 761 00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:35,200 Speaker 1: quarterback is out, So this is strictly a value play. 762 00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:38,200 Speaker 1: I think I think that we are on the sharper 763 00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:41,120 Speaker 1: side of this. A lot of people have already agree 764 00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:43,560 Speaker 1: with me in Vegas on that because when the announcement, 765 00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:45,959 Speaker 1: what it was pretty much factor when the line was made, 766 00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:50,000 Speaker 1: Kansas was plus three and it got bought down almost 767 00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:53,120 Speaker 1: immediately to plus two. I think that the quarterback in 768 00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:56,239 Speaker 1: the situation is getting a little bit overvalued. You know. 769 00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:59,160 Speaker 1: I've seen some projections out there around four and a 770 00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:01,799 Speaker 1: half to five point he's worth. I don't know that 771 00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:03,919 Speaker 1: he's worth that much. In this offense. They're a running 772 00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:07,520 Speaker 1: football team. That's what they do. You know, they were 773 00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:10,200 Speaker 1: tenth best in the country YPA last year rushing the ball. 774 00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:12,879 Speaker 1: Nevada doesn't stop the run. They were one hundred ninth 775 00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:17,520 Speaker 1: last year YPA defense and against the rushing. Now, Nevada 776 00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:19,359 Speaker 1: does have a really good quarterback that does the ball 777 00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:24,160 Speaker 1: really well. That's Carson Strong. Yeah, Carson Strong, I think 778 00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:26,520 Speaker 1: that's his name. Apologize to the young man if I'm wrong, 779 00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:29,040 Speaker 1: but I think I'm right, and he looks really good 780 00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:31,760 Speaker 1: so far this year. But they played one FBS school. 781 00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:34,400 Speaker 1: They played Cal, and Cal they did go win that 782 00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:37,040 Speaker 1: game as a road dog. K State's played only one 783 00:39:37,440 --> 00:39:41,320 Speaker 1: FBA school. They hosted Stanford and they beat them pretty soundly. 784 00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:45,239 Speaker 1: And Stanford just went into Clay Hilton's career at USC. Yeah. 785 00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:49,560 Speaker 1: Now every Saturday is a new Saturday. Nothing really translates. However, 786 00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:52,279 Speaker 1: it looks a lot more quality of win now that 787 00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:55,120 Speaker 1: Kansas that Stanford Witton did, but they did the USC 788 00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:58,160 Speaker 1: so you know, Stanford is able to play a good 789 00:39:58,560 --> 00:40:03,040 Speaker 1: football game, and State handled them pretty handily. So I 790 00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:06,080 Speaker 1: think overall, I think we're just getting too much value 791 00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:08,680 Speaker 1: on that certain quarterback. I do like k State in 792 00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:10,520 Speaker 1: this game. I like them to win the game anyway, 793 00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:13,759 Speaker 1: just because sometimes styles make fights, and I think the 794 00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:16,080 Speaker 1: style of this game is gonna favorite Kansas City and chopping. 795 00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:20,480 Speaker 1: You know, you know that Manhattan is a crazy, crazy 796 00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:25,200 Speaker 1: place to go to on Saturday to play football. And 797 00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:28,280 Speaker 1: k State in the last since or since twenty fifteen, 798 00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:32,640 Speaker 1: same time for thirteen and six ats as a home dog. 799 00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:36,000 Speaker 1: That's sixty April four percent of time they cover when 800 00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:38,040 Speaker 1: you come into Manhattan and you're supposed to be the big, 801 00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:42,279 Speaker 1: bad favorite. We really like the Wildcats here. Yeah, that's 802 00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:45,160 Speaker 1: a great stat. I like that as well. Although I 803 00:40:45,160 --> 00:40:47,879 Speaker 1: do think that that is not a bad team. They're 804 00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:50,200 Speaker 1: they're a good team. I just don't know how good 805 00:40:50,239 --> 00:40:52,520 Speaker 1: they are. And I think we're just putting too much 806 00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:57,759 Speaker 1: onus on that quarterback position from k State. I mean, yeah, 807 00:40:57,840 --> 00:41:00,239 Speaker 1: he's good, but he's not like it's not like he's 808 00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:02,279 Speaker 1: a top five quarterback in the country. So let's not 809 00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:06,760 Speaker 1: go crazy. Yeah that's true. Okay. Finally, uh pizza money parlay. 810 00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:10,000 Speaker 1: We have got Army minus the thirty three. We have 811 00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:12,920 Speaker 1: Kansas State on the money line. Slight favorite there or 812 00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:16,040 Speaker 1: slight dog, I should say dog at plus one oh five, 813 00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:19,759 Speaker 1: Virginia Tech plus one twenty five and lottech plus three 814 00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:22,799 Speaker 1: ninety five. That'll net you a cool forty two and 815 00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:24,800 Speaker 1: a half to one odds on a four team er. 816 00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:29,799 Speaker 1: I mean sounds good to me, you know, so sounds good. 817 00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:33,319 Speaker 1: The k State, you know, pitfall if I'm right, If 818 00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:35,480 Speaker 1: I'm right about that, you know that's gonna be a 819 00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:37,839 Speaker 1: big one to get through. And then the law Tech 820 00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:41,719 Speaker 1: I don't know how they're catching, you know, fourteen points 821 00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:45,680 Speaker 1: against SMU. I mean, I know SMU has made some upgrades, 822 00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:48,160 Speaker 1: but that's that's gonna be a good game. I think 823 00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:50,280 Speaker 1: I think that, Uh, I think law takes a lobdog 824 00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:51,719 Speaker 1: in that one. Yeah, forty two and a half to 825 00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:55,000 Speaker 1: one ten bucks pays you four hundred and twenty five dollars. Baby, 826 00:41:55,080 --> 00:41:58,400 Speaker 1: let's go. Yeah, that sounds really really spice. There you go, 827 00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:01,640 Speaker 1: Army minus thirty three again yukon k State money Line 828 00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:05,839 Speaker 1: votech plus one twenty five money Line Lattech money Line 829 00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:08,239 Speaker 1: plus three ninety five. We'll match you forty two and 830 00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:10,160 Speaker 1: a half to one. Normally it's like a nine to 831 00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:12,919 Speaker 1: ten to one odds on a four teamer. Boh, Where 832 00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:16,120 Speaker 1: can we find you? On social media? You can find 833 00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:19,560 Speaker 1: us at fgh Vegas on Twitter. Remember super contest lines 834 00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:23,080 Speaker 1: coming out before noon kickoff. You can find us at 835 00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:25,840 Speaker 1: the Football Gloryhole dot com. And you can find our podcast, 836 00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:28,840 Speaker 1: the Football Glory Hole Podcast anywhere, and I mean anywhere 837 00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:32,120 Speaker 1: you find podcast. All right, I'm RJ Choppy. You catch 838 00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:34,040 Speaker 1: me Monday through Friday on one oh five through the 839 00:42:34,040 --> 00:42:37,319 Speaker 1: Fans Sean Sean Shreef for Myself five thirty to ten 840 00:42:37,360 --> 00:42:40,640 Speaker 1: long with Troy Hughes and at r J Choppy on 841 00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:43,800 Speaker 1: the Twitter Thing plus Saturdays from eleven to three on 842 00:42:43,880 --> 00:42:48,560 Speaker 1: the bet ql network on the Odyssee app. So check 843 00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:51,840 Speaker 1: me out, please myself and Ari Tempkin. That'll do it 844 00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:53,279 Speaker 1: for us here on the Football four oh one K 845 00:42:53,400 --> 00:42:55,480 Speaker 1: till next week. Let's with some cash, boys and girls,