WEBVTT - 21 ETFs to Watch in '21

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome trilliance. I'm Joel Webber and I'm americal. Tunis Eric?

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<v Speaker 1>Are you ready for next year? Yet? Absolutely? So? Over

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<v Speaker 1>I am, So how about can we get there? Yeah?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean honestly, this year has felt like a decade,

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<v Speaker 1>like longer than a decade. Yes, I mean there's been

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<v Speaker 1>so many phases to it. Something somebody brought up, something

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<v Speaker 1>that happened in January, and it seemed like four times

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<v Speaker 1>yeah before times, yeah before I think longingly about the

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<v Speaker 1>before times. Yeah BC. On this episode of Trillions, we're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna go into the future. Yeah. Um, we're gonna talk

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<v Speaker 1>about the future. Yeah. You know, last year and and

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<v Speaker 1>every half year we coun into these outlooks, and that

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<v Speaker 1>that term is gets. You know, it's a little beaten

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<v Speaker 1>down and traite at this point, and we do an outlook,

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<v Speaker 1>but we thought for this audience, given this sort of

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<v Speaker 1>retailer ish nature, we would do what we're calling one one.

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<v Speaker 1>So we're gonna go over t s that we're watching

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<v Speaker 1>in this coming year. And just to be clear, we

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<v Speaker 1>do not give investment device. So this is not ets

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<v Speaker 1>we think we'll go up or down. It's ones that

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<v Speaker 1>we as analysts just keep thinking about and we're fascinated

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<v Speaker 1>by and they kind of tap into some bigger themes

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<v Speaker 1>and topics and so um. So basically we had the

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<v Speaker 1>whole team, and the team being myself at the Nazia

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<v Speaker 1>Sera Veagus, James Staffer and Morgan Barna each pick five

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<v Speaker 1>ETFs and then we all sort of agreed on the

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<v Speaker 1>twenty one, which we'll go over at the end, but

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<v Speaker 1>that that's the general idea and we'll we'll go through

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<v Speaker 1>it during this sub podcast Best time on Brilliant. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>so we're going from youngest to oldest, which means James

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<v Speaker 1>Safer is on the hot seat to go first. James,

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<v Speaker 1>what's your opening batch of e t F kickers? So

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<v Speaker 1>my opening batch actually breaks the rules. It's not technically

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<v Speaker 1>an e t F. It's GBTC. Already you're already not

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<v Speaker 1>following instruction, years off to a terrible start, but this

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<v Speaker 1>is something you can't leave off, especially in the environment

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<v Speaker 1>where and it's the gray scale bitcoin trust. Um so

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<v Speaker 1>it holds bitcoin. Uh, it's not technically an et F.

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<v Speaker 1>It's what's known as a grant or trust. Basically, it

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<v Speaker 1>operates kind of like a closed and fund. It's not

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<v Speaker 1>the most efficient vehicle in the world, but right now

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin sitting near all time highs, just shy of twenty thousands.

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<v Speaker 1>The fund itself is now has a market cap of

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<v Speaker 1>over of around fourteen billion, which is nothing to sneeze

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<v Speaker 1>at for sure, um, but it's it's taken in a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of money this year, would be in the top

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<v Speaker 1>fifty for getting flows this year in so looking to

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<v Speaker 1>see if this continues into the other five. This that

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<v Speaker 1>brings up is a bitcoin ETF. This is something that's

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<v Speaker 1>been talked about since possibly even earlier when the coballs

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<v Speaker 1>first filed, and it's just the SEC is not letting

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<v Speaker 1>it happen. Um. So there's kind of a disservice in

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<v Speaker 1>my opinion, going on here with the SEC allowing this

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<v Speaker 1>product to operate in the OTC markets where retail investors

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<v Speaker 1>can buy it, but they can't buy a more efficient

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<v Speaker 1>actual et F that holds bitcoin. So you have right

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<v Speaker 1>now this thing on Friday closed at roughly a thirty

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<v Speaker 1>percent premium to its underlying value, So basically you're paying

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<v Speaker 1>a thirty percent premium just to get access to this

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<v Speaker 1>fund that holds bitcoin. UM. So there's a bunch of

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<v Speaker 1>issues here, But this is the best product you have

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<v Speaker 1>UM inside the current existing brokerage system. So I'm just

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<v Speaker 1>gonna see how this goes. And the other thing I'm

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<v Speaker 1>watching is if a bitcoin e t F does get approved,

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<v Speaker 1>I think there's a good chance that this product actually

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<v Speaker 1>gets converted to an e t F, so it will

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<v Speaker 1>open up at the door at a ten billion dollar

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<v Speaker 1>product if it converts from a grant of trust to

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<v Speaker 1>an e t F. Okay number two. Number two is

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<v Speaker 1>a little more boring. UM. It's v x US, the

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<v Speaker 1>Vanguard Total International Stock ETF UM. If you look at

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<v Speaker 1>like global equity land Escape and you slice it the

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<v Speaker 1>COmON way to slice in three ways, right, so you're

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<v Speaker 1>looking at domestic equity, international, developed, and then emerging market.

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<v Speaker 1>If you look at the domestic equity market right now,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean over the last ten years, domestic stocks have

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<v Speaker 1>outperformed international stocks by with emerging markets doing slightly worse,

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<v Speaker 1>an international developed doing slightly better. But it's been an

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<v Speaker 1>absolute dominant run by domestics. So one we're going I'm

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<v Speaker 1>watching this to see if international stocks can do some

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<v Speaker 1>catching up. The other thing I'm watching is v x

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<v Speaker 1>U S has been around for about ten years has

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<v Speaker 1>only they've seen three days of outflows. It's just a

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<v Speaker 1>perpetual parade of inflows, partially because of the underperformance. So

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<v Speaker 1>people are constantly rebalancing into this. So if that changes,

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<v Speaker 1>I want to see if this thing starts seeing outflows.

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<v Speaker 1>Number three, I'm gonna go with SNPE here, which is

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<v Speaker 1>the Extractor's SMP five E s G E T F UM. Obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>E s G is a hot topic, it has been

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<v Speaker 1>for a couple of years UM, which finally starting to

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<v Speaker 1>see assets go to the space. The other thing here

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<v Speaker 1>is I like these types of products, they find them

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<v Speaker 1>more interesting. Um when I mean these types of products.

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<v Speaker 1>SMP is an exclusionary portfolio. So what it does is

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<v Speaker 1>it gives you the SMP five hundred and basically takes

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<v Speaker 1>out the worst actors from each sector and then a

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<v Speaker 1>couple of other ones like tobacco and weapons. So you're

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<v Speaker 1>getting broadly the SMP five hundred, but just kind of

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<v Speaker 1>taking things off the edge that thinks are the worst performers.

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<v Speaker 1>And the other thing I'm looking at here is there's

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<v Speaker 1>three other ETFs that track the same exact index. One

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<v Speaker 1>on the US market, which is E five from Spider

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<v Speaker 1>and then there's one from Investco in Europe UM which

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<v Speaker 1>is sp X E, and one in Canada that's e

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<v Speaker 1>s G. So all of these have about just shy

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<v Speaker 1>of a billion dollars. So I want to see how

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<v Speaker 1>quickly those assets grow. Because SMP is obviously pushing this

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<v Speaker 1>as a as a product, how do they decide what

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<v Speaker 1>gets excluded? Is it just performance? So each so that

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's actually a pretty complicated um methodology. Uh. Depending

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<v Speaker 1>on the sector, it takes certain scores into more more important,

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<v Speaker 1>so like they might take social more important in this area,

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<v Speaker 1>or like obviously energy they take into carbon a little

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<v Speaker 1>more seriously. Um. So different things gets different ways. So

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<v Speaker 1>the whole idea is just like, based on your sector,

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<v Speaker 1>we're gonna get rid of the worst things from that

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<v Speaker 1>sector and we're just gonna give you basic your The

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<v Speaker 1>goal is to give a risk return characteristics similar to

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<v Speaker 1>the SMP, which we've done tons of research. We've talked

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<v Speaker 1>about it on this podcast. The things that are most

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<v Speaker 1>like beta, the most like what you can put in

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<v Speaker 1>a core portfolio, tend to get the most assets and

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<v Speaker 1>interests from advisors. Okay, number four, Um, so I'm gonna

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<v Speaker 1>go with ov L which is the overlay shares Large

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<v Speaker 1>cap Equity e t F. There's another one SPU i

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<v Speaker 1>C from Simplify the Simplify Us Equity plus Convexity e

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<v Speaker 1>t F. These are structured product ETFs. They have like

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<v Speaker 1>kind of overlays and it's an interesting market for these.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a couple of them coming to market. We've talked

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<v Speaker 1>about the buffer products on here a bunch. We had

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<v Speaker 1>Bruce Bond on UM. All of these kind of like

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<v Speaker 1>options strategy e t f s are coming to market.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a booming area and it's a good time for

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<v Speaker 1>now with interest rate SOLO, there's a lot of people

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<v Speaker 1>looking for yield replacement. There's a lot of people saying

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<v Speaker 1>that you can't just do a sixty forty portfolio. So

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<v Speaker 1>they're taking a little away from each side and going

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<v Speaker 1>to these other types of products. UM. Some of them.

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<v Speaker 1>O VL for instance, is outperformed since it's launch, which

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<v Speaker 1>so I'm just kind of watching to see both the

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<v Speaker 1>performance of these things and how well they do at

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<v Speaker 1>gathering assets. UM. So we'll see and your your fifth

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<v Speaker 1>and final. So my fifth and final is uh is

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<v Speaker 1>t q q q UM and also s q q

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<v Speaker 1>q T q q Q is the triple levered long

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<v Speaker 1>queues or NASDAQ on t f UM. This thing has

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<v Speaker 1>shocked US this year. It is the fourth most traded

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<v Speaker 1>e t f on US exchanges in twenty so far,

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<v Speaker 1>which is kind of insane for me to think about

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<v Speaker 1>that a triple leverage product would do it. But that

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<v Speaker 1>kind of is indicative of two things. One, Robin Hood

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<v Speaker 1>traders will just use that term, but really retail traders

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<v Speaker 1>on any platform have balloon or in the pandemic. And also,

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<v Speaker 1>obviously tech has done extremely well. The cues of outperformed

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<v Speaker 1>the SP five over a long period of time, and

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<v Speaker 1>the cues have even outperformed by more. The t q

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<v Speaker 1>q Q as outperformed by more because basically the way

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<v Speaker 1>it's leverage, if it's a consistent ride up, it actually

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<v Speaker 1>will generate more return than the the underlying investment. So

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<v Speaker 1>basically going to be watching to see two things. One

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<v Speaker 1>does this outperformance continue and two does that this amount

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<v Speaker 1>of trading. I mean, this thing trades opens four billion

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<v Speaker 1>dollars a day um, So is that going to slow

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<v Speaker 1>down when things start opening up? Their sports back on TV, now,

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<v Speaker 1>more gambling, more things like that, are people going to

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<v Speaker 1>leave the trading arena UM from their deaths at home.

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<v Speaker 1>So all that's gonna be interesting rots in one in

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<v Speaker 1>my view, Hey Eric, Um, I don't know if you

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<v Speaker 1>were listening to this, but James picked a ticker that

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't in et F and then he picked two tickers

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<v Speaker 1>instead of one. Um, what do we what do you

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<v Speaker 1>have to say about m and his picks? Well, I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's on brand. UM. I think James is like

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<v Speaker 1>when I want to know, like the mindset of a

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<v Speaker 1>mall Neil day trader. I asked James, he's got Bitcoin,

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<v Speaker 1>he's got triple leverage cues, and he's got E S

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<v Speaker 1>G in there and in some you know, option overlay.

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<v Speaker 1>He's Um, I think they're great. I think all of

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<v Speaker 1>these are really interesting. I think v x US is

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<v Speaker 1>the one that's that's a little unexpected from from his picks. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>That said, you know, waiting for International to catch up

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<v Speaker 1>or do you know, to have a good run has

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<v Speaker 1>been something that's been like a five year story. But

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<v Speaker 1>our chief market strategist, Gina Martin Adams has talked about

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<v Speaker 1>look out for some rotations next year and one of

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<v Speaker 1>those is two International. So UM, I think they're great.

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<v Speaker 1>I think they're all indicative of things that are going

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<v Speaker 1>to play out next year. I think bitcoin et F,

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<v Speaker 1>if you have Biden, pick somebody who is just the

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<v Speaker 1>right person at the SEC, potentially you can see want

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<v Speaker 1>to prove quickly. Um, but I'm still doubtful. I'll add

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<v Speaker 1>something and I'm the Bitcoin thing that I think is

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<v Speaker 1>really interesting. They want to prove it. Um. Europe has

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<v Speaker 1>a bitcoin tfs already, right and they're performing, uh pretty well.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's interesting that you have all these approvals in

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<v Speaker 1>Europe and there's multiple bitcoin ETFs. So I have to

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<v Speaker 1>think that the SEC is looking over in Europe. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>usually it's the other way around. Europe's looking to what

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<v Speaker 1>the U S is doing, but it seems like this

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<v Speaker 1>time they're looking the other way. Um. So I think

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<v Speaker 1>depending how some of these products trade, could hopefully open

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<v Speaker 1>the door and make it a little bit easier for

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<v Speaker 1>a bitcoin approval in the US. Yeah. And there's a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of a lot of what aboutism with some of

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<v Speaker 1>the stuff that Robin Hood people are doing. And then

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<v Speaker 1>they're like, but there still isn't a bitcoin ETF. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>we looked a bitcoin e t F ranked by volatility

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<v Speaker 1>would be wouldn't even be in the top fifty. Um

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<v Speaker 1>there are there would be you know, dozens of e

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<v Speaker 1>t A e tps that are more volatile than a

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<v Speaker 1>bitcoin fund would be. It just has comes down to that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, surveillance on exchanges and the possibility of manipulation

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<v Speaker 1>that the SECC can't seem to get over. But and look,

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<v Speaker 1>you know over in Sweden they've got they've had they'd

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<v Speaker 1>launched this stuff a long time ago. There's one over

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<v Speaker 1>there is five years old and there has not been

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<v Speaker 1>really much problem with the premium discount. It seemed to

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<v Speaker 1>do the job exactly as an e t P should.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm surprised they haven't looked at that and said, okay,

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<v Speaker 1>well it's worked there five years, let's let's give it

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<v Speaker 1>a shot. But they're they're they're obsessed with the underlying

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<v Speaker 1>market more than the how the product will work. And

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<v Speaker 1>that's the issue, all right. Second youngest analysts morgan um

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<v Speaker 1>number six e t f I SEB t I shares

0:11:35.559 --> 0:11:40.439
<v Speaker 1>Convertible bond DTF. So the convertibles market have really ballooned

0:11:40.720 --> 0:11:42.800
<v Speaker 1>UM this year there was sort of a bull year.

0:11:42.840 --> 0:11:45.520
<v Speaker 1>We're on track for like a hundred and seventeen billion

0:11:45.559 --> 0:11:49.560
<v Speaker 1>of issuants UM. This fun tracks of Bloomberg Barkley's US

0:11:49.600 --> 0:11:53.920
<v Speaker 1>Convertible Cash Pay Bond Index, which is really issuers coming

0:11:53.960 --> 0:11:58.440
<v Speaker 1>to market for UM, you know, really appealing borrow rates

0:11:59.160 --> 0:12:03.800
<v Speaker 1>with an equity conversion option. So the the appreciation investors

0:12:04.040 --> 0:12:06.599
<v Speaker 1>really is linked to the equity growth. But just the

0:12:06.760 --> 0:12:10.480
<v Speaker 1>nature of the issuers has been super interesting this year.

0:12:11.000 --> 0:12:14.000
<v Speaker 1>Entrence that were more distressed, like American Airlines were a Caribbean,

0:12:14.080 --> 0:12:17.559
<v Speaker 1>but also just really fast growing companies that that are

0:12:17.640 --> 0:12:21.000
<v Speaker 1>looking to you know, lowering or cossa borrowing UM companies

0:12:21.040 --> 0:12:24.800
<v Speaker 1>like shop High and Novocure. So ultimately with with the

0:12:24.840 --> 0:12:29.439
<v Speaker 1>conversion option, investors in this fund have seen UM really

0:12:29.480 --> 0:12:32.720
<v Speaker 1>strong growth like fifty up this year. For for investors

0:12:32.760 --> 0:12:35.120
<v Speaker 1>who really want to stick to a certain bond allocation,

0:12:35.240 --> 0:12:37.880
<v Speaker 1>this is kind of an interesting, uh interesting play to

0:12:37.960 --> 0:12:39.960
<v Speaker 1>do it. Some of the mutual funds have have loads,

0:12:40.000 --> 0:12:42.360
<v Speaker 1>So I like that the e t F is clean

0:12:42.880 --> 0:12:46.880
<v Speaker 1>share class and this fund actually only charges twenty BIPs. Okay,

0:12:47.160 --> 0:12:50.520
<v Speaker 1>number seven, I'm going with q Q q J, which

0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:53.040
<v Speaker 1>I don't know that one. I know, I know cues,

0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:57.640
<v Speaker 1>but I don't know Cukuku j Yeah, relatively new, launched

0:12:57.640 --> 0:13:01.280
<v Speaker 1>in October. It was a an extension of sort of

0:13:01.320 --> 0:13:05.400
<v Speaker 1>the NASDAC brand Buy invest Go, which is really interesting.

0:13:05.520 --> 0:13:09.040
<v Speaker 1>It's the next one hundred listed companies on the asset

0:13:09.120 --> 0:13:13.200
<v Speaker 1>that are non financials, so in line with the QQ

0:13:13.520 --> 0:13:17.839
<v Speaker 1>brand UM. Obviously, that brand has has had some pretty

0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:21.640
<v Speaker 1>big strides this year just in notoriety and investors interest

0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:25.360
<v Speaker 1>in in it. But this, this next one, actually we

0:13:25.480 --> 0:13:27.640
<v Speaker 1>like that it overlaps with a number of sort of

0:13:27.679 --> 0:13:30.360
<v Speaker 1>hot thematic categories. Even just looking at the top three holdings,

0:13:30.400 --> 0:13:35.160
<v Speaker 1>I mean five G content streaming, on demand, internet, ad tech,

0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:37.719
<v Speaker 1>you know this, This is just sort of intersect with

0:13:37.760 --> 0:13:40.760
<v Speaker 1>a lot of interesting themes um. So we're watching this fun.

0:13:40.840 --> 0:13:42.800
<v Speaker 1>We think it's going to get more traction um the

0:13:42.840 --> 0:13:46.240
<v Speaker 1>coming year. It already has three million in assets. Okay,

0:13:46.559 --> 0:13:51.720
<v Speaker 1>Number eight. I chose KMD Crane Chairs, Emerging Markets, Healthcare

0:13:51.800 --> 0:13:55.360
<v Speaker 1>et F. This is a smaller fund, but we've seen

0:13:55.520 --> 0:13:57.679
<v Speaker 1>as some have have described a bit of like a

0:13:57.800 --> 0:14:01.360
<v Speaker 1>k recovery. I think, you know, healthcare along with biotech,

0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:03.839
<v Speaker 1>but really, you know, healthcare and emerging markets has been

0:14:04.120 --> 0:14:06.480
<v Speaker 1>part of the upper leg of that k UM. They're

0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:09.839
<v Speaker 1>just some really interesting exposure here among some of the

0:14:09.920 --> 0:14:14.000
<v Speaker 1>more innovative emerging markets economies. Uh. This fund has a

0:14:14.080 --> 0:14:17.040
<v Speaker 1>thirty percent allocation in China, twenty to South Korea, thirteen

0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:19.920
<v Speaker 1>percent Hong Kong, and thirteen percent India. So really those

0:14:20.320 --> 0:14:25.680
<v Speaker 1>stronger growing emerging market economies right now. Um. The structural

0:14:26.040 --> 0:14:28.200
<v Speaker 1>I guess play here is that healthcare costs as a

0:14:28.320 --> 0:14:30.520
<v Speaker 1>share of GDP or supposed to grow a lot faster

0:14:30.560 --> 0:14:33.720
<v Speaker 1>and emerging markets than developed Um. Just the demographic tell

0:14:33.760 --> 0:14:37.760
<v Speaker 1>when they're coming along with urbanization. So the fund has

0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:41.000
<v Speaker 1>seen some some really strong growing names this year, but

0:14:41.080 --> 0:14:43.200
<v Speaker 1>I think it owes to the construction of it. So

0:14:43.400 --> 0:14:45.440
<v Speaker 1>it's it's market cap weighted with a cap at four

0:14:45.520 --> 0:14:49.480
<v Speaker 1>point five percent, and then anything over that is distributed

0:14:49.480 --> 0:14:51.760
<v Speaker 1>prograd at the rest of the holding. So it does

0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:56.000
<v Speaker 1>feature some some higher weightings and smaller companies. And yeah,

0:14:56.000 --> 0:14:57.840
<v Speaker 1>I'm watching this one next year. I think I think

0:14:57.960 --> 0:15:01.400
<v Speaker 1>the demographic trends are going to continue to play. Um. Okay,

0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:05.520
<v Speaker 1>number nine, I chose that the A T T which

0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:08.640
<v Speaker 1>is amplifies lithium and battery technology. I was going to say,

0:15:08.640 --> 0:15:10.920
<v Speaker 1>if this has nothing to do with battery it would

0:15:10.960 --> 0:15:13.840
<v Speaker 1>be like the weirdest tiger of all time. But yeah,

0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:17.000
<v Speaker 1>glad to know it's battery. This is a battery t

0:15:17.160 --> 0:15:21.280
<v Speaker 1>F Actually super Interestingly, this fund converted from an actively

0:15:21.360 --> 0:15:24.560
<v Speaker 1>managed UH to an index based strategy in mid October,

0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:26.200
<v Speaker 1>So that's part of why I'm watching it because I

0:15:26.280 --> 0:15:29.280
<v Speaker 1>think the index based construction is really going to change

0:15:29.640 --> 0:15:32.880
<v Speaker 1>the investment mandate change too. I think this fund is

0:15:32.920 --> 0:15:35.200
<v Speaker 1>going to have a little bit of a different trajectory

0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:39.720
<v Speaker 1>going forward. So they actually notched down their exposure to

0:15:40.000 --> 0:15:44.000
<v Speaker 1>lithium miners by ten percent. The fund added six energy

0:15:44.080 --> 0:15:47.840
<v Speaker 1>storage makers and now it's including e V auto manufacturers

0:15:47.880 --> 0:15:50.120
<v Speaker 1>in a meaningful way. It's going to try to contain

0:15:50.280 --> 0:15:54.440
<v Speaker 1>those automakers to just the exposure and get more of

0:15:54.520 --> 0:15:57.400
<v Speaker 1>the end to end battery life cycle and still keep

0:15:57.480 --> 0:16:00.480
<v Speaker 1>the miners in there. Um. But know it's at a

0:16:00.520 --> 0:16:03.680
<v Speaker 1>Tesla Neo like a bunch of these these EV makers.

0:16:03.720 --> 0:16:07.720
<v Speaker 1>Though the EV maker has to have top line revenue

0:16:07.800 --> 0:16:12.240
<v Speaker 1>from electric vehicles. But interestingly, the other auto makers as

0:16:12.320 --> 0:16:15.040
<v Speaker 1>they they you know, maybe naturally increase their e V

0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:18.760
<v Speaker 1>output could be considered for this fund. So I think

0:16:18.800 --> 0:16:21.920
<v Speaker 1>the construction is interesting. They even have like sort of

0:16:21.960 --> 0:16:26.680
<v Speaker 1>a market cap minimum for some of the lithium miners

0:16:26.840 --> 0:16:29.040
<v Speaker 1>and other metals producers, so they have to have a

0:16:29.040 --> 0:16:30.880
<v Speaker 1>reasonable share of the market. I think it just tries

0:16:30.920 --> 0:16:34.960
<v Speaker 1>to add really close to this the sector and the

0:16:35.080 --> 0:16:38.680
<v Speaker 1>growth in lithium ion battery demand. Okay, and your your

0:16:38.840 --> 0:16:44.120
<v Speaker 1>tent my my fifth and the tent pick is UH

0:16:44.360 --> 0:16:48.400
<v Speaker 1>NET and et L fundamental income net least rate e

0:16:48.520 --> 0:16:52.600
<v Speaker 1>t F. This is an interesting UH sub segment of

0:16:52.720 --> 0:16:57.560
<v Speaker 1>the of the single Tenant Reaped index in the US.

0:16:57.640 --> 0:16:59.520
<v Speaker 1>So this is this is an index product, but it's

0:16:59.560 --> 0:17:04.159
<v Speaker 1>it's sort of a sub index of only those reads

0:17:04.240 --> 0:17:06.960
<v Speaker 1>that operate with triple netleases, so the managers actually have

0:17:07.000 --> 0:17:10.600
<v Speaker 1>a much better path through of rental income to investors.

0:17:10.680 --> 0:17:13.159
<v Speaker 1>So these tend to be this is a higher yielding

0:17:13.240 --> 0:17:16.720
<v Speaker 1>segment right now, it's around four four four percent. Just

0:17:16.840 --> 0:17:19.280
<v Speaker 1>as a starting point, the BI single tenant read index

0:17:19.320 --> 0:17:22.840
<v Speaker 1>has done fiftcent better than the broader UH North American

0:17:22.920 --> 0:17:25.720
<v Speaker 1>read index. I think that proved some defensibility on the

0:17:25.760 --> 0:17:28.919
<v Speaker 1>single tenant side, and I see that kind of content

0:17:29.000 --> 0:17:31.680
<v Speaker 1>that defensibility kind of continuing next year. This being a

0:17:31.720 --> 0:17:34.320
<v Speaker 1>little bit more of a shielded segment of the real

0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:37.679
<v Speaker 1>estate operators. But you know, I think there's really interesting

0:17:37.800 --> 0:17:40.400
<v Speaker 1>embedded portfolio diversity. This is sort of a big range

0:17:40.440 --> 0:17:44.560
<v Speaker 1>of tenant types. Um and for real estate or or

0:17:44.680 --> 0:17:47.959
<v Speaker 1>a yield sleeve. This is this is an interesting strategy. Eric,

0:17:48.000 --> 0:17:52.840
<v Speaker 1>what do you think about her picks? They're great. Um,

0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:55.480
<v Speaker 1>They're all kind of out of the box stuff. I

0:17:55.520 --> 0:17:56.840
<v Speaker 1>hadn't really thought of. The only one that I was

0:17:57.000 --> 0:17:59.080
<v Speaker 1>I think where the whole team was on was q

0:17:59.240 --> 0:18:02.360
<v Speaker 1>Q Q J. Think this is this product came out.

0:18:02.880 --> 0:18:05.399
<v Speaker 1>Rarely a product gets launched and you're like, God, that

0:18:05.520 --> 0:18:07.680
<v Speaker 1>makes so much sense, Like, I'm surprised they didn't do

0:18:07.760 --> 0:18:10.400
<v Speaker 1>that one sooner. You know, the next one in the cues.

0:18:10.440 --> 0:18:12.399
<v Speaker 1>I suppose that the cues were so on fire this

0:18:12.560 --> 0:18:16.280
<v Speaker 1>year that it just the idea was more natural than

0:18:16.520 --> 0:18:18.399
<v Speaker 1>the years past. But that's a good one. I like.

0:18:18.520 --> 0:18:21.280
<v Speaker 1>I like the e M themes are analysts were off

0:18:21.720 --> 0:18:25.120
<v Speaker 1>for b I, who covers all the emerging markets. He's

0:18:25.160 --> 0:18:27.440
<v Speaker 1>written naturally about themes, even though E t f s

0:18:27.440 --> 0:18:30.720
<v Speaker 1>are not his coverage, and they naturally connect with some

0:18:30.880 --> 0:18:33.440
<v Speaker 1>of the things the issuers have been doing with try

0:18:33.520 --> 0:18:36.639
<v Speaker 1>to unbundle em a little bit, to try to capture

0:18:36.680 --> 0:18:39.320
<v Speaker 1>the more growthy areas and cut out the stuff that

0:18:39.320 --> 0:18:42.080
<v Speaker 1>doesn't grow that fast. And then the battery you know,

0:18:42.600 --> 0:18:45.320
<v Speaker 1>lithium has l I T the competing one has one

0:18:45.359 --> 0:18:47.560
<v Speaker 1>point three billion, which is way more than I thought

0:18:47.600 --> 0:18:50.520
<v Speaker 1>it did. And then the driver the electric driving car

0:18:50.720 --> 0:18:52.520
<v Speaker 1>e t F there's like three of them now they

0:18:52.560 --> 0:18:55.399
<v Speaker 1>also have about half a billion, so there's clearly interest

0:18:55.520 --> 0:18:57.280
<v Speaker 1>in that one. So I also thought that was good.

0:18:57.280 --> 0:18:59.840
<v Speaker 1>And also I see I V C T I rarely

0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:03.800
<v Speaker 1>and think about convertibles, and it's the best performing fixed

0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:07.320
<v Speaker 1>income et F of the year, which again was a shocker.

0:19:07.440 --> 0:19:11.080
<v Speaker 1>So UM, I like, I enjoy being surprised by the picks,

0:19:11.119 --> 0:19:14.000
<v Speaker 1>and I was surprised by like four of these five. Yeah,

0:19:14.080 --> 0:19:15.960
<v Speaker 1>I mean the the I C v T pick is

0:19:16.000 --> 0:19:17.760
<v Speaker 1>the one that jumped out at me, just because when

0:19:17.800 --> 0:19:19.240
<v Speaker 1>she said it and I looked it up, I was like,

0:19:19.400 --> 0:19:22.040
<v Speaker 1>that chart is impressive to look at, UM, And it's

0:19:22.080 --> 0:19:24.639
<v Speaker 1>definitely a unique way that she mentioned to get like

0:19:24.840 --> 0:19:27.400
<v Speaker 1>your your fixed income exposure. I talked about using those

0:19:27.480 --> 0:19:31.280
<v Speaker 1>overlay structured products strategies as kind of like a way

0:19:31.359 --> 0:19:34.040
<v Speaker 1>to change your sixty forty portfolio. Maybe you take a

0:19:34.040 --> 0:19:36.080
<v Speaker 1>little from me to put in those and I think

0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:38.200
<v Speaker 1>I c VT also kind of fits into that theme

0:19:38.240 --> 0:19:40.159
<v Speaker 1>because you get a little more of the equity upside,

0:19:40.200 --> 0:19:42.240
<v Speaker 1>but there's a little more principal protection on the downside

0:19:42.280 --> 0:19:46.159
<v Speaker 1>theoretically because it is it does have a fixed income floor. UM.

0:19:46.240 --> 0:19:48.720
<v Speaker 1>So I think I c BT also fits into that

0:19:48.960 --> 0:19:52.760
<v Speaker 1>theme that I spoke about, UM pretty well. I like

0:19:52.960 --> 0:19:55.480
<v Speaker 1>the q q J pick as well, UM, and I

0:19:55.560 --> 0:19:58.919
<v Speaker 1>like it from the angle that it's a MidCap focus. Um.

0:19:59.000 --> 0:20:01.119
<v Speaker 1>You know, NBUI, which is the mid cap ETF, is

0:20:01.280 --> 0:20:03.920
<v Speaker 1>one of the best performing ETFs of all time, and

0:20:04.000 --> 0:20:07.000
<v Speaker 1>it's traditionally been an area that Nastac just frankly hasn't

0:20:07.040 --> 0:20:09.240
<v Speaker 1>focused on. So they they it's pretty interesting that they

0:20:09.280 --> 0:20:11.040
<v Speaker 1>found that gap and now they're able to compete in

0:20:11.080 --> 0:20:14.679
<v Speaker 1>the MidCap space as well. Terific If keep the mic,

0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:19.639
<v Speaker 1>let's hear what you got alright. UM, My picks aren't

0:20:19.640 --> 0:20:22.600
<v Speaker 1>as hardcore millennial because I grew up in the analog

0:20:22.720 --> 0:20:25.239
<v Speaker 1>world two a little bit, so I've seen them both. Um.

0:20:25.320 --> 0:20:27.760
<v Speaker 1>But the first one I'll start with is a SPG

0:20:28.000 --> 0:20:31.399
<v Speaker 1>p UM. It's the Investo SMP five D GARB e

0:20:31.560 --> 0:20:34.960
<v Speaker 1>t f UM GARB standing for growth at a Reasonable Price,

0:20:35.400 --> 0:20:37.560
<v Speaker 1>But the way I explain this one, it's like it's

0:20:37.600 --> 0:20:41.760
<v Speaker 1>like growth light. You're seeing this transition over to value. Now,

0:20:42.119 --> 0:20:44.160
<v Speaker 1>value has been doing really well. You've seen it come

0:20:44.240 --> 0:20:46.960
<v Speaker 1>up more and more. But if there's one thing that

0:20:47.119 --> 0:20:49.640
<v Speaker 1>history has taught us, it's that anyone who keeps allocating

0:20:49.680 --> 0:20:52.960
<v Speaker 1>the value gets burned. Um. What GARB does is it

0:20:53.119 --> 0:20:55.359
<v Speaker 1>it still doesn't allow you to let go of these

0:20:55.440 --> 0:20:58.399
<v Speaker 1>growth companies, but it down shifts a little bit. So

0:20:58.840 --> 0:21:01.119
<v Speaker 1>if I was to run a chart between growth, value

0:21:01.200 --> 0:21:03.960
<v Speaker 1>and are fall somewhere in the middle. So why I

0:21:04.080 --> 0:21:06.359
<v Speaker 1>like this one is that it's still playing on this

0:21:06.480 --> 0:21:09.359
<v Speaker 1>transition out of growth into value, but it's not fully

0:21:09.480 --> 0:21:12.160
<v Speaker 1>moving over. Sometimes you see this binary move, people will

0:21:12.160 --> 0:21:14.159
<v Speaker 1>move out of growth right into value. This one just

0:21:14.240 --> 0:21:16.440
<v Speaker 1>sort of downshifts a little bit. Um. It's it's a

0:21:16.480 --> 0:21:19.320
<v Speaker 1>really small product. It's not that well known. But the

0:21:19.400 --> 0:21:21.240
<v Speaker 1>other thing I found interesting is that the issue where

0:21:21.240 --> 0:21:23.440
<v Speaker 1>actually changed their strategy. It used to be like a

0:21:23.480 --> 0:21:26.280
<v Speaker 1>full on growth strategy and they change it to GARB.

0:21:26.400 --> 0:21:30.720
<v Speaker 1>So even themselves are inherently making a market call, and

0:21:31.119 --> 0:21:33.399
<v Speaker 1>you know they're being a little bit more water down growth.

0:21:33.680 --> 0:21:35.359
<v Speaker 1>So I think this is a really interesting one to

0:21:35.400 --> 0:21:40.640
<v Speaker 1>watch for next year. Number twelve. Number twelve is I Buy,

0:21:40.840 --> 0:21:44.879
<v Speaker 1>which is the Amplifi Online Retail et F. No, I

0:21:44.880 --> 0:21:46.879
<v Speaker 1>don't need to sell you on the story of online

0:21:46.920 --> 0:21:49.320
<v Speaker 1>retail and how well that's doing, but why I like

0:21:49.480 --> 0:21:50.920
<v Speaker 1>this one and I call it sort of the non

0:21:51.119 --> 0:21:54.080
<v Speaker 1>Amazon e t F. So when you look at a

0:21:54.080 --> 0:21:57.639
<v Speaker 1>lot of these uh consumer discretionary or online retail product

0:21:57.720 --> 0:22:01.760
<v Speaker 1>they are dominated by Amazon. Usually anyway from fifteen of

0:22:01.840 --> 0:22:04.560
<v Speaker 1>the product is Amazon. This only has a two percent

0:22:04.640 --> 0:22:07.639
<v Speaker 1>way to Amazon because it's equal weighted. And even with that,

0:22:07.840 --> 0:22:10.199
<v Speaker 1>the ETF is up over a hundred percent this year,

0:22:10.240 --> 0:22:13.239
<v Speaker 1>which is like the fifth best performing ETF out there. UM.

0:22:13.960 --> 0:22:15.719
<v Speaker 1>And I'm really I like this product because it comes

0:22:15.760 --> 0:22:19.600
<v Speaker 1>from a smaller issue from Amplified. Um It's it's capitalizing

0:22:19.680 --> 0:22:22.399
<v Speaker 1>on the online retail trend, but it's not Amazon. UM.

0:22:22.640 --> 0:22:24.919
<v Speaker 1>So there's all these other names there, so much happening

0:22:24.920 --> 0:22:27.720
<v Speaker 1>in the ecosystem outside of them Amazon. A otther of

0:22:27.720 --> 0:22:31.320
<v Speaker 1>people forget that, and this, this product brings all these

0:22:31.359 --> 0:22:33.000
<v Speaker 1>smaller companies to light. And as you can see, they're

0:22:33.000 --> 0:22:35.960
<v Speaker 1>all performing really well because, um, most of the performance

0:22:35.960 --> 0:22:39.280
<v Speaker 1>has been outside of the the Amazon story. What are

0:22:39.359 --> 0:22:42.040
<v Speaker 1>some other whole things that you like in there. Yeah,

0:22:42.119 --> 0:22:45.520
<v Speaker 1>So like Roku is a big one that comes up garment.

0:22:45.960 --> 0:22:48.800
<v Speaker 1>So there's all these other companies that are still capitalizing

0:22:48.840 --> 0:22:53.159
<v Speaker 1>office online retail trend. But Amazon like the twenty or

0:22:53.200 --> 0:22:55.800
<v Speaker 1>something or so biggest holding. So that's why I really

0:22:55.840 --> 0:22:58.920
<v Speaker 1>like it. It really takes the focus off of Amazon. Okay,

0:22:59.040 --> 0:23:02.959
<v Speaker 1>number thirteen, This is my millennial pick. It's the Spack

0:23:03.440 --> 0:23:06.000
<v Speaker 1>e t F to definance the next gen SPAC derived

0:23:06.400 --> 0:23:08.840
<v Speaker 1>e t F. Now this one is still really small

0:23:08.880 --> 0:23:10.399
<v Speaker 1>to when you got a few million in it and

0:23:10.480 --> 0:23:13.960
<v Speaker 1>it just launched, But this one seems to check a

0:23:14.080 --> 0:23:16.639
<v Speaker 1>lot of the boxes for these thematic ETFs that do

0:23:16.960 --> 0:23:20.880
<v Speaker 1>really well. Um, it had interest right out of the gate.

0:23:20.920 --> 0:23:23.359
<v Speaker 1>It started trading very heavily. Um you know, it's it's

0:23:23.440 --> 0:23:28.400
<v Speaker 1>capitalizing on this robin hood uh investor base that's looking

0:23:28.480 --> 0:23:31.639
<v Speaker 1>more and more. Thematic spacts obviously have had a fantastic year.

0:23:31.680 --> 0:23:34.720
<v Speaker 1>There's something seventy billion or so raised through spacts this year,

0:23:35.480 --> 0:23:39.159
<v Speaker 1>which is a record. So, um, this SPAC one, it

0:23:39.320 --> 0:23:41.359
<v Speaker 1>checks all the boxes that should do well. I'm actually

0:23:41.359 --> 0:23:43.440
<v Speaker 1>a little bit surprised that it's smaller than it really is.

0:23:43.520 --> 0:23:45.560
<v Speaker 1>But I'd be on the lookout next year, um, because

0:23:45.600 --> 0:23:47.080
<v Speaker 1>it's the only e t F I'll do to play

0:23:47.119 --> 0:23:49.960
<v Speaker 1>SPACs in any way, unless you're buying the specific spacts themselves.

0:23:50.359 --> 0:23:53.119
<v Speaker 1>So um, this one's more of my shocking pick that

0:23:53.280 --> 0:23:54.639
<v Speaker 1>I thought this one would be a lot bigger. And

0:23:54.680 --> 0:23:57.120
<v Speaker 1>also just given how strong thematics have been this year,

0:23:57.240 --> 0:23:59.400
<v Speaker 1>pretty much any thematic ETF has come to the market

0:23:59.480 --> 0:24:01.960
<v Speaker 1>has done really well. They share very early on. So

0:24:02.280 --> 0:24:05.159
<v Speaker 1>I'm a little bit surprised that there's not more bites

0:24:05.200 --> 0:24:09.879
<v Speaker 1>on this back et F yet. Okay, fourteen fourteen is

0:24:09.920 --> 0:24:12.879
<v Speaker 1>a classic. It's us m V which is the I

0:24:12.960 --> 0:24:16.120
<v Speaker 1>S share is minvol et F. And why I brought

0:24:16.200 --> 0:24:18.199
<v Speaker 1>this one back in is because if you look at

0:24:18.240 --> 0:24:21.200
<v Speaker 1>flows this year, it's the first year ever that low

0:24:21.320 --> 0:24:23.840
<v Speaker 1>vall is going to have outflows. Um, And I think

0:24:23.920 --> 0:24:27.439
<v Speaker 1>it's it's more of this foamo right. Low vall tends

0:24:27.520 --> 0:24:30.800
<v Speaker 1>to do well and down markets, uh and tends the

0:24:30.880 --> 0:24:32.680
<v Speaker 1>lag on the way up. And what I thought it

0:24:32.760 --> 0:24:35.479
<v Speaker 1>was interesting because given how volable the market was this year,

0:24:35.520 --> 0:24:38.399
<v Speaker 1>supposed to be in March, these tend to take in assets,

0:24:38.640 --> 0:24:41.480
<v Speaker 1>but they've really been bleeding pretty significantly. And if you

0:24:41.600 --> 0:24:44.719
<v Speaker 1>had bought Loval this shure you're actually lagging SNP by

0:24:45.480 --> 0:24:48.840
<v Speaker 1>which I think is a really significant a significant amount

0:24:49.240 --> 0:24:52.200
<v Speaker 1>to get this on people's radar. So, given what we've

0:24:52.240 --> 0:24:54.560
<v Speaker 1>seen with the FED jumping in and really having the

0:24:54.680 --> 0:24:57.560
<v Speaker 1>markets back, UM, I don't see a lot of interest

0:24:57.640 --> 0:24:58.720
<v Speaker 1>in the U S n B. I think a lot

0:24:58.760 --> 0:25:00.639
<v Speaker 1>of people want to go into the high beta stuff.

0:25:00.680 --> 0:25:04.000
<v Speaker 1>So you're seeing investors move out of low vall and

0:25:04.160 --> 0:25:07.280
<v Speaker 1>it's UM. It's interesting because it's every year it's it's

0:25:07.320 --> 0:25:09.480
<v Speaker 1>been taking in money. It's been good for a couple

0:25:09.560 --> 0:25:11.720
<v Speaker 1>billion every year for some of these issues. But this

0:25:11.840 --> 0:25:14.280
<v Speaker 1>year has been a complete reversal of historically we've seen

0:25:14.359 --> 0:25:17.920
<v Speaker 1>with Manvall okay and your final Okay. The last one

0:25:18.160 --> 0:25:21.800
<v Speaker 1>is a active, non transparent ETF or ANTS as we're

0:25:21.920 --> 0:25:24.600
<v Speaker 1>coining it UM the tickers F d G, which is

0:25:24.600 --> 0:25:28.280
<v Speaker 1>the American Century Focused Dynamic Growth ETF. It's so it's

0:25:28.320 --> 0:25:30.800
<v Speaker 1>a long name, but this one is really my bell

0:25:30.880 --> 0:25:34.080
<v Speaker 1>weather for ants and how well ants are going to do. UM.

0:25:34.359 --> 0:25:36.800
<v Speaker 1>They're really new, right, UM. And the whole point of

0:25:36.840 --> 0:25:39.119
<v Speaker 1>ANTS was that these active funds cannot launch and not

0:25:39.280 --> 0:25:42.720
<v Speaker 1>have to show their holdings daily. UM. So the holdings

0:25:42.760 --> 0:25:44.800
<v Speaker 1>are a little bit lagged, but the performance of this

0:25:44.960 --> 0:25:47.880
<v Speaker 1>has been really good. It's already beating the its benchmark

0:25:47.960 --> 0:25:51.280
<v Speaker 1>by it only launched this year. It has about two

0:25:51.640 --> 0:25:54.800
<v Speaker 1>million dollars in assets. Now we debate this on the

0:25:54.880 --> 0:25:57.359
<v Speaker 1>team that's you know when somewhere more bullish on ants

0:25:57.400 --> 0:25:59.360
<v Speaker 1>than others. But I think this one is if there's

0:25:59.400 --> 0:26:01.760
<v Speaker 1>one that has chance of the group, this is going

0:26:01.840 --> 0:26:03.320
<v Speaker 1>to be the best one. I think. I think it's

0:26:03.359 --> 0:26:06.760
<v Speaker 1>the most interesting strategy that holds names like tesla Um.

0:26:06.920 --> 0:26:08.399
<v Speaker 1>This one is really going to be I think my

0:26:08.520 --> 0:26:12.200
<v Speaker 1>bell Weather to see how well people are are are

0:26:12.840 --> 0:26:16.200
<v Speaker 1>accepting of these new and e t f s. Hey, Morgan,

0:26:16.240 --> 0:26:20.159
<v Speaker 1>how come you didn't pick his spack pick? What why

0:26:20.200 --> 0:26:22.760
<v Speaker 1>did you pass on that? You know? I like the pick.

0:26:23.040 --> 0:26:26.320
<v Speaker 1>I think it's I think it's really interesting. Um, we'll

0:26:26.359 --> 0:26:29.040
<v Speaker 1>have to see, I mean, based on sort of the

0:26:29.400 --> 0:26:31.879
<v Speaker 1>market cap waiting in these like you know, how they

0:26:31.960 --> 0:26:34.720
<v Speaker 1>really play out. Um, this is kind of the second

0:26:34.800 --> 0:26:37.040
<v Speaker 1>go I think spac's got a bad name early on,

0:26:37.480 --> 0:26:41.199
<v Speaker 1>but I think you know, the diversity of of UH managers,

0:26:42.000 --> 0:26:44.679
<v Speaker 1>you know, listing and the expediency to which they can

0:26:44.800 --> 0:26:47.320
<v Speaker 1>they can bring things publicum, this is this might be

0:26:48.280 --> 0:26:50.720
<v Speaker 1>a better round on the first. So yeah, and the

0:26:50.880 --> 0:26:52.600
<v Speaker 1>Spack e t F. The the one thing that I

0:26:52.840 --> 0:26:54.360
<v Speaker 1>that you have to point out is that it's only

0:26:55.080 --> 0:26:57.399
<v Speaker 1>pre I p O SPACs. Those are where you get

0:26:57.440 --> 0:27:01.000
<v Speaker 1>the big pop is after the I p O and

0:27:01.119 --> 0:27:04.680
<v Speaker 1>it's lagging the market this year. It's new, but this

0:27:04.800 --> 0:27:06.159
<v Speaker 1>is one of those E t F that has to

0:27:06.200 --> 0:27:09.280
<v Speaker 1>have some shiny object performance I think, and then people

0:27:09.280 --> 0:27:11.080
<v Speaker 1>will go, oh, yeah, of course this would go up.

0:27:11.119 --> 0:27:12.720
<v Speaker 1>This is like the new I p O market, but

0:27:12.840 --> 0:27:14.920
<v Speaker 1>it needs that performance first. I think that's why I

0:27:14.960 --> 0:27:18.720
<v Speaker 1>think it hasn't really found a lot of It hasn't

0:27:18.720 --> 0:27:20.600
<v Speaker 1>found a big audience yet. Yeah, and this year, I

0:27:20.640 --> 0:27:24.160
<v Speaker 1>mean no road shows. It's kind of interesting that after

0:27:24.359 --> 0:27:26.760
<v Speaker 1>I p O ing, they still didn't get marketed that

0:27:26.840 --> 0:27:30.520
<v Speaker 1>aggressively before I p O. So you know, structurally they

0:27:30.600 --> 0:27:33.879
<v Speaker 1>may they may still get that distribution benefits spread out

0:27:33.920 --> 0:27:37.680
<v Speaker 1>over a bit of time. Comment on Spack real quick.

0:27:38.400 --> 0:27:41.000
<v Speaker 1>It s p a C special purpose acquisition company. The

0:27:41.080 --> 0:27:43.040
<v Speaker 1>e t F is actually s p a K. If

0:27:43.080 --> 0:27:44.639
<v Speaker 1>anyone out there is trying to look up the C

0:27:44.760 --> 0:27:47.200
<v Speaker 1>t F and learn about it, which every time I

0:27:47.240 --> 0:27:48.639
<v Speaker 1>got to look at it. I type in s P

0:27:48.760 --> 0:27:54.880
<v Speaker 1>A C and it goes to a delisted company. Um. Yeah.

0:27:55.080 --> 0:27:58.359
<v Speaker 1>I like the guard PTF, mostly because I genuinely didn't

0:27:58.359 --> 0:28:00.199
<v Speaker 1>even know it existed until eight and brought it up

0:28:00.680 --> 0:28:04.040
<v Speaker 1>when we had our pre talk meeting about this. So uh.

0:28:04.160 --> 0:28:07.200
<v Speaker 1>And I love the idea of growth light, just kind

0:28:07.200 --> 0:28:09.440
<v Speaker 1>of looking at and seeing both the performance and whether

0:28:09.560 --> 0:28:12.639
<v Speaker 1>or not advisors retail investors put their money there. Um,

0:28:12.800 --> 0:28:14.840
<v Speaker 1>it'll be interesting to watch and there's not many others

0:28:15.080 --> 0:28:18.520
<v Speaker 1>that that go after this GARB type strategy. I also

0:28:18.560 --> 0:28:20.359
<v Speaker 1>thought it was interesting that he picked us m V.

0:28:20.960 --> 0:28:23.320
<v Speaker 1>That's one that we've been talking about for years. It's

0:28:23.359 --> 0:28:27.119
<v Speaker 1>a beast what is it thirty billion dollars at this point. Um,

0:28:27.320 --> 0:28:29.920
<v Speaker 1>it's such an easy E t F to sell, right.

0:28:30.280 --> 0:28:32.160
<v Speaker 1>Oh hey, it's the market but with a little less

0:28:32.359 --> 0:28:35.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, volatility or a little less edge, and that's

0:28:35.119 --> 0:28:37.840
<v Speaker 1>always good. It's like diet coke and it's it's basically

0:28:37.920 --> 0:28:39.720
<v Speaker 1>flow off the shelves. But the problem is it's trailing

0:28:39.760 --> 0:28:41.920
<v Speaker 1>the market badly this year, and it shows that some

0:28:42.040 --> 0:28:44.800
<v Speaker 1>of the people in there are fickle. Here's my question

0:28:44.880 --> 0:28:47.120
<v Speaker 1>for both us m V and f d G which

0:28:47.200 --> 0:28:49.600
<v Speaker 1>is a theme I'm gonna look into a lot more

0:28:49.680 --> 0:28:52.160
<v Speaker 1>next year, which is do you get a second bite

0:28:52.160 --> 0:28:55.760
<v Speaker 1>at the apple? Remember currency hedge ttfs, like, really, we're

0:28:55.800 --> 0:28:57.520
<v Speaker 1>on fire. For a couple of years they took in

0:28:57.680 --> 0:28:59.920
<v Speaker 1>I don't know what their peak asset was, maybe sixty billion,

0:29:00.680 --> 0:29:03.680
<v Speaker 1>but then they started underperforming and a large chunk of

0:29:03.760 --> 0:29:06.240
<v Speaker 1>the people left. The assets went down because the market

0:29:06.360 --> 0:29:09.520
<v Speaker 1>was down too, and they were a fraction of their

0:29:09.520 --> 0:29:13.440
<v Speaker 1>old selves. Then they started out performing again and nobody cared. Well,

0:29:13.560 --> 0:29:16.160
<v Speaker 1>U SMV get a second look. If it starts out performing,

0:29:16.280 --> 0:29:18.600
<v Speaker 1>we'll see f DG is in the same boat. You've

0:29:18.600 --> 0:29:21.200
<v Speaker 1>got all these ants. They all have names that you

0:29:21.240 --> 0:29:24.800
<v Speaker 1>remember from the nineties, and it be curious to see

0:29:24.800 --> 0:29:28.080
<v Speaker 1>if somebody goes, Wow, this American Century Fund is really

0:29:28.120 --> 0:29:30.680
<v Speaker 1>doing well, or if they go, yeah, no, I've been there,

0:29:30.720 --> 0:29:33.840
<v Speaker 1>done that. I'm gonna look elsewhere to the next thing,

0:29:33.960 --> 0:29:36.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, maybe like the new Goldman Smart Beta, Like

0:29:36.640 --> 0:29:39.160
<v Speaker 1>I just don't I'm a little hesitant that you get

0:29:39.200 --> 0:29:42.040
<v Speaker 1>a second bite of the apple, and so I'm I'm

0:29:42.160 --> 0:29:44.480
<v Speaker 1>a little bearish in the last two. But they're still

0:29:44.520 --> 0:29:46.560
<v Speaker 1>interesting to watch. That has nothing to do with why

0:29:46.640 --> 0:29:49.120
<v Speaker 1>they are good or bad picks. It's more just my

0:29:49.240 --> 0:29:51.400
<v Speaker 1>take on on their potential for assets in the future.

0:29:56.640 --> 0:30:00.520
<v Speaker 1>All right, let's uh, here are you're five? Bring us home.

0:30:01.120 --> 0:30:03.160
<v Speaker 1>My first pick is the one that I'm the most

0:30:03.240 --> 0:30:05.440
<v Speaker 1>excited to watch all next year, which is the d

0:30:05.600 --> 0:30:08.480
<v Speaker 1>f AU. It's the Dimensional US Core Equity Market et F.

0:30:09.320 --> 0:30:12.040
<v Speaker 1>This is the dimensional is a three D and seventy

0:30:12.080 --> 0:30:15.320
<v Speaker 1>billion dollar active manager. It's our One of our themes

0:30:15.400 --> 0:30:18.080
<v Speaker 1>next year is big Active, sort of like big Pharma.

0:30:18.160 --> 0:30:21.680
<v Speaker 1>It's all these big active shops are finally coming in

0:30:22.360 --> 0:30:26.400
<v Speaker 1>full fullheartedly in the next couple of years. And we

0:30:26.520 --> 0:30:28.880
<v Speaker 1>just talked about ants. D f A is taking a

0:30:28.880 --> 0:30:30.720
<v Speaker 1>different approach. They're gonna put their et F out with

0:30:31.000 --> 0:30:33.320
<v Speaker 1>with transparent so they're not doing the ANT approach. They're

0:30:33.320 --> 0:30:35.680
<v Speaker 1>just gonna let you see the holdings every day and

0:30:35.920 --> 0:30:38.160
<v Speaker 1>it's gonna it's an act of strategy. So they're gonna,

0:30:38.280 --> 0:30:41.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, pick stocks. Although it's based on systemic quant

0:30:41.120 --> 0:30:44.120
<v Speaker 1>methods that they do um and this is a firm

0:30:44.160 --> 0:30:47.160
<v Speaker 1>seeing a lot of outflows, so you know, can they

0:30:47.240 --> 0:30:49.520
<v Speaker 1>turn it around? And now, to me, this e t

0:30:49.680 --> 0:30:53.560
<v Speaker 1>F is like custom made for the advisor's brain. It's transparent,

0:30:54.080 --> 0:30:56.760
<v Speaker 1>it's dirt cheap. At twelve basis points, you've got a

0:30:56.800 --> 0:30:59.520
<v Speaker 1>brand name like d f A, but at Vanguard fees

0:30:59.520 --> 0:31:03.200
<v Speaker 1>it's got low tracking. The top holdings are basically Apple, Microsoft, Amazon,

0:31:03.360 --> 0:31:08.160
<v Speaker 1>Amazon only market share. To me, they took the page

0:31:08.200 --> 0:31:11.160
<v Speaker 1>out of Goldman's playbook when Goldman launched g SLC. And

0:31:11.240 --> 0:31:13.880
<v Speaker 1>remember we did the episode with Colfinberg. This is similar

0:31:13.920 --> 0:31:16.480
<v Speaker 1>to that and that worked. That has ten billion dollars.

0:31:16.840 --> 0:31:18.680
<v Speaker 1>And the beauty of these strategies is they're kind of

0:31:18.720 --> 0:31:23.320
<v Speaker 1>performance proof because the advisor is so scared of getting

0:31:23.360 --> 0:31:25.680
<v Speaker 1>fired that they just want to pick stuff that has

0:31:25.960 --> 0:31:28.680
<v Speaker 1>a good story but won't underperform. And this looks like

0:31:28.760 --> 0:31:31.240
<v Speaker 1>it will not because it's so close to the SMP.

0:31:31.840 --> 0:31:33.720
<v Speaker 1>And I think that's something you should see. Also, d

0:31:33.880 --> 0:31:35.640
<v Speaker 1>f A is going to convert a bunch of mutual

0:31:35.640 --> 0:31:40.040
<v Speaker 1>funds that equal twenty billion in assets. So and that's

0:31:40.080 --> 0:31:42.200
<v Speaker 1>also something that Wall Street banks like JP Morgan and

0:31:42.240 --> 0:31:44.800
<v Speaker 1>Goldman did when they entered. They did a lot of

0:31:44.840 --> 0:31:47.360
<v Speaker 1>B Y O A and they look for opportunities to

0:31:47.440 --> 0:31:50.920
<v Speaker 1>grow their assets quickly. So Golden JP Morgan skipped a

0:31:51.000 --> 0:31:55.479
<v Speaker 1>lot of the sort of oblivion stage of a lot

0:31:55.560 --> 0:31:58.280
<v Speaker 1>of legacy companies coming in late where they just hanging oblivion.

0:31:58.320 --> 0:32:01.200
<v Speaker 1>So they finally do something different and they just ripped

0:32:01.200 --> 0:32:02.600
<v Speaker 1>the band aid off and that's what d f A

0:32:02.720 --> 0:32:04.760
<v Speaker 1>did and I have I'm more bullish on them than

0:32:04.800 --> 0:32:06.760
<v Speaker 1>the ants in terms of big active but we'll see.

0:32:07.120 --> 0:32:10.400
<v Speaker 1>Um the next one, speaking of active, Yeah, next one, uh,

0:32:10.560 --> 0:32:13.480
<v Speaker 1>speaking of active arc a r KK. We don't even

0:32:13.480 --> 0:32:14.840
<v Speaker 1>need to spend that much time to describing this. This

0:32:14.960 --> 0:32:20.120
<v Speaker 1>is Cathy Woods. You know super you know lud chrous mode. Yeah,

0:32:20.240 --> 0:32:23.880
<v Speaker 1>she's in luded, like she's gone plaid. That's a deep

0:32:23.880 --> 0:32:26.920
<v Speaker 1>Spaceballs reference. But yeah, she's on another level. I mean

0:32:27.360 --> 0:32:28.840
<v Speaker 1>a r k K. Let me give you the numbers

0:32:28.920 --> 0:32:32.800
<v Speaker 1>up inception and a hundred and thirty three percent this year.

0:32:33.000 --> 0:32:37.040
<v Speaker 1>That's triple the cues, eight times the SMP and two

0:32:37.200 --> 0:32:40.200
<v Speaker 1>times the Fidelity Growth Fund. Now that Fidelity Growth manager

0:32:40.400 --> 0:32:42.960
<v Speaker 1>is tasked with the same thing to pick road stocks,

0:32:43.160 --> 0:32:46.640
<v Speaker 1>so she's doubling a growth manager. That is how on

0:32:46.800 --> 0:32:50.680
<v Speaker 1>fire she is. And she's inspired like about thirty copycat funds.

0:32:50.720 --> 0:32:54.000
<v Speaker 1>So this will be one we watch for a long time. Um.

0:32:54.560 --> 0:32:57.280
<v Speaker 1>Here's the thing though, as you all know, here I'm

0:32:57.280 --> 0:33:00.080
<v Speaker 1>working on this book about Bogel. So I've been reading

0:33:00.080 --> 0:33:02.560
<v Speaker 1>a bunch of his books and it's hard. You know,

0:33:02.600 --> 0:33:04.280
<v Speaker 1>when you read his books, he goes over the go

0:33:04.440 --> 0:33:07.160
<v Speaker 1>go eras from the sixties and the seventies that they

0:33:07.200 --> 0:33:10.320
<v Speaker 1>happened like once every fifteen years, or uh, sell off

0:33:10.400 --> 0:33:13.400
<v Speaker 1>happens once every fifteen years, and you realize there's funds

0:33:13.480 --> 0:33:16.000
<v Speaker 1>like this in every era, and they end up getting

0:33:16.040 --> 0:33:19.040
<v Speaker 1>a lot of assets, people say their geniuses, and then

0:33:19.240 --> 0:33:21.600
<v Speaker 1>a crash hits or a correction, and they usually go

0:33:21.640 --> 0:33:24.320
<v Speaker 1>down more than than the market and people leave and

0:33:24.440 --> 0:33:27.120
<v Speaker 1>then what they get back going again, but nobody cares

0:33:27.600 --> 0:33:29.680
<v Speaker 1>or they can never get back to that again. It's

0:33:29.720 --> 0:33:32.360
<v Speaker 1>the second bite of the apple. Is she a star

0:33:32.480 --> 0:33:34.520
<v Speaker 1>here to stay? Or more like a comment? And that's

0:33:34.560 --> 0:33:38.200
<v Speaker 1>something that we're going to find out. UM s val

0:33:38.440 --> 0:33:41.320
<v Speaker 1>this is the it's opposite of Cathy Wood. This is

0:33:41.440 --> 0:33:45.360
<v Speaker 1>the small cap value e t F from I Shares. UH.

0:33:45.520 --> 0:33:48.280
<v Speaker 1>It's you know, it's a small cat value stocks. It's

0:33:48.280 --> 0:33:52.120
<v Speaker 1>got a quant screen for liquidity, um volatility, leverage, and

0:33:52.200 --> 0:33:54.840
<v Speaker 1>an analyst sentiments. It's got a smart cap smart beta

0:33:54.960 --> 0:33:58.360
<v Speaker 1>kind of filter, and then it ranks this highest scoring stocks.

0:33:58.920 --> 0:34:01.360
<v Speaker 1>UM the top two fifth. Now, I like that it's

0:34:01.440 --> 0:34:04.360
<v Speaker 1>concentrated to fifty means you're gonna rip when it works,

0:34:04.840 --> 0:34:07.040
<v Speaker 1>and that's what happened when you look at the small

0:34:07.120 --> 0:34:11.520
<v Speaker 1>cap value run. That happened from basically since the vaccine

0:34:11.840 --> 0:34:15.279
<v Speaker 1>from Feiser was was that news broke for about three weeks,

0:34:15.320 --> 0:34:18.360
<v Speaker 1>there was a huge rotation the quote reopening trade and

0:34:18.480 --> 0:34:21.759
<v Speaker 1>this thing was up twenty m one per cent during

0:34:21.800 --> 0:34:24.680
<v Speaker 1>that time, more than the other small cap value et

0:34:24.840 --> 0:34:26.600
<v Speaker 1>f s, which hold more stocks, so they're gonna be

0:34:26.600 --> 0:34:29.440
<v Speaker 1>a little more anchored. UM. So I think if you

0:34:29.560 --> 0:34:33.280
<v Speaker 1>have a regime change, we're small cap value or value

0:34:33.360 --> 0:34:35.840
<v Speaker 1>or small caps just you know, has a five or

0:34:35.920 --> 0:34:38.560
<v Speaker 1>ten year run, this thing probably will be at the

0:34:38.600 --> 0:34:41.879
<v Speaker 1>top of the list performance wise because of that concentration.

0:34:42.320 --> 0:34:45.439
<v Speaker 1>It's also very cheap for a potential shiny object type

0:34:45.480 --> 0:34:48.440
<v Speaker 1>ETF at twenty bits. Normally you only step pricing for

0:34:48.520 --> 0:34:51.520
<v Speaker 1>the ones that are sort of more disguise beta. UM.

0:34:51.800 --> 0:34:53.800
<v Speaker 1>The other final note on this is, I don't know

0:34:53.880 --> 0:34:55.640
<v Speaker 1>what's going to happen. We could have, like the Queues

0:34:55.719 --> 0:34:58.359
<v Speaker 1>have another amazing decade, But I just want to remind

0:34:58.400 --> 0:35:00.680
<v Speaker 1>people that in the two thousands that's a decade before

0:35:00.760 --> 0:35:03.120
<v Speaker 1>this last one. If you look at the return, small

0:35:03.200 --> 0:35:07.400
<v Speaker 1>cap value return returns seven point five percent annually that decade.

0:35:07.800 --> 0:35:10.839
<v Speaker 1>The SMP returned nothing, and so in the twenty years

0:35:10.920 --> 0:35:14.399
<v Speaker 1>since then, small cat values still beating the SMP. That's

0:35:14.400 --> 0:35:17.440
<v Speaker 1>how bad corrections are for the SMP UM. And it

0:35:17.480 --> 0:35:19.960
<v Speaker 1>also just shows you that things do change. So again

0:35:20.000 --> 0:35:22.120
<v Speaker 1>I'm sort of looking forward to if and when there

0:35:22.120 --> 0:35:24.839
<v Speaker 1>could be a regime change, look for s vl UM.

0:35:25.200 --> 0:35:27.600
<v Speaker 1>My other one is another one is m s o S.

0:35:27.680 --> 0:35:31.840
<v Speaker 1>This is the advisor Shares Pure Cannabis etf UM. I

0:35:31.920 --> 0:35:34.680
<v Speaker 1>work with Ken scha or cannabis analyst a lot and

0:35:34.800 --> 0:35:37.800
<v Speaker 1>he has some great data showing that like legal cannabis

0:35:37.800 --> 0:35:40.279
<v Speaker 1>sales in the US may hit sixteen billion this year

0:35:40.760 --> 0:35:43.520
<v Speaker 1>versus only two point eight billion for Canada. Yet most

0:35:43.560 --> 0:35:46.840
<v Speaker 1>of the exposure in the potty tfs is in Canadian companies.

0:35:47.400 --> 0:35:50.560
<v Speaker 1>The reason for that is because UM, you're not really

0:35:50.600 --> 0:35:53.320
<v Speaker 1>allowed to invest directly and what's called multi state operators

0:35:53.360 --> 0:35:56.160
<v Speaker 1>in the US. So this e t F uses swaps

0:35:56.239 --> 0:36:00.120
<v Speaker 1>to sort of cleverly sidestep that rule. Long story or

0:36:00.280 --> 0:36:04.920
<v Speaker 1>it's basically a US exposure UM with that going to

0:36:05.000 --> 0:36:07.520
<v Speaker 1>the M S O S. So that's the way more

0:36:07.600 --> 0:36:10.040
<v Speaker 1>than any others. So these are companies like Green Thumb,

0:36:10.600 --> 0:36:14.560
<v Speaker 1>truely pure Leaf. They're all significantly up. And if you

0:36:14.640 --> 0:36:16.920
<v Speaker 1>look at M S O S versus MJ, it's up

0:36:18.320 --> 0:36:23.040
<v Speaker 1>since versus so again, not having those Canadian companies could

0:36:23.120 --> 0:36:26.040
<v Speaker 1>really help this thing in the future. UM. And then

0:36:26.160 --> 0:36:29.360
<v Speaker 1>my final pick is boring but beautiful b t I.

0:36:29.960 --> 0:36:32.680
<v Speaker 1>This is the Vanguard total market. To me, this is

0:36:32.719 --> 0:36:36.239
<v Speaker 1>the perfect e t F. It's pretty much flawless. I

0:36:36.360 --> 0:36:38.759
<v Speaker 1>have My opinion is this is the most likely to

0:36:38.840 --> 0:36:41.319
<v Speaker 1>take over. Spy is the biggest d t F UM

0:36:41.440 --> 0:36:43.880
<v Speaker 1>in the next five or ten years, even though i

0:36:44.040 --> 0:36:46.719
<v Speaker 1>VV has more. This is the third biggest currently. But

0:36:46.840 --> 0:36:49.040
<v Speaker 1>here's here's why I gotta watch out for this one.

0:36:49.400 --> 0:36:52.400
<v Speaker 1>The test less situation with the SNP. To me, I

0:36:52.480 --> 0:36:55.759
<v Speaker 1>think it may have hurt the SMP brand. I don't know.

0:36:55.920 --> 0:36:58.840
<v Speaker 1>It's an amazing brand, it's rock star. Maybe it's just

0:36:58.960 --> 0:37:01.759
<v Speaker 1>beyond that kind of stuff. But the idea that that

0:37:02.160 --> 0:37:06.320
<v Speaker 1>SMP the s is gonna lag beta e t F

0:37:06.400 --> 0:37:08.920
<v Speaker 1>such as the Russell one thousand or the Bloomberg five hundred,

0:37:09.640 --> 0:37:11.600
<v Speaker 1>I don't know. It could it could irk people um

0:37:11.800 --> 0:37:15.080
<v Speaker 1>that Tesla not having it costed about one percent this year.

0:37:15.320 --> 0:37:18.239
<v Speaker 1>Now v t I invested in everything. So v t

0:37:18.400 --> 0:37:20.839
<v Speaker 1>I has had Tesla for ten years basically, and TESS

0:37:20.840 --> 0:37:23.160
<v Speaker 1>has contributed to two point seven percent or one percent

0:37:23.239 --> 0:37:27.040
<v Speaker 1>of its total return of two um. So you don't

0:37:27.040 --> 0:37:29.719
<v Speaker 1>have to worry about whether you know the new stock

0:37:29.840 --> 0:37:31.720
<v Speaker 1>is in it or not because it tracks small caps.

0:37:32.280 --> 0:37:34.479
<v Speaker 1>I also like the fact that it's regime change proof.

0:37:34.560 --> 0:37:36.600
<v Speaker 1>So we talked about small value. What a small value

0:37:36.640 --> 0:37:39.800
<v Speaker 1>has like a ten year run and the SNP lags,

0:37:40.200 --> 0:37:42.080
<v Speaker 1>it won't really matter too much with v t I.

0:37:42.160 --> 0:37:45.080
<v Speaker 1>You're gonna have those stocks in there anyway. Um. So

0:37:45.239 --> 0:37:48.200
<v Speaker 1>to me, vt I reminds me of that line in

0:37:48.239 --> 0:37:51.800
<v Speaker 1>the movie Almost Famous. Remember when the young journalist the

0:37:51.880 --> 0:37:54.680
<v Speaker 1>Rolling Stone Journalists talks to the sort of grizzled old

0:37:54.800 --> 0:37:58.080
<v Speaker 1>like rock critic played by Philip symour Hoffman and he says, yeah,

0:37:58.160 --> 0:37:59.680
<v Speaker 1>my kids are in the high school. Don't like me,

0:38:00.040 --> 0:38:01.879
<v Speaker 1>and he goes, don't worry, you'll you'll see them all

0:38:01.880 --> 0:38:04.400
<v Speaker 1>again in a long road to the middle. And I

0:38:04.560 --> 0:38:06.680
<v Speaker 1>just think v t I is the long road to

0:38:06.719 --> 0:38:10.560
<v Speaker 1>the middle. Whether it's value growth, small, large, these things

0:38:10.640 --> 0:38:12.720
<v Speaker 1>have their day and then they have they're in the doghouse.

0:38:12.840 --> 0:38:15.359
<v Speaker 1>V T I generally is gonna be where they all

0:38:15.480 --> 0:38:18.400
<v Speaker 1>end up, you know, over thirty forty years. So to me,

0:38:18.560 --> 0:38:20.520
<v Speaker 1>this is just like the sort of like the the

0:38:20.680 --> 0:38:23.600
<v Speaker 1>ultimate play on the market and something I'm watching next

0:38:23.719 --> 0:38:26.440
<v Speaker 1>year and every year after. James, what do you make

0:38:26.520 --> 0:38:30.520
<v Speaker 1>of that marijuana pick? So I I like I I

0:38:30.680 --> 0:38:33.439
<v Speaker 1>like ms os just because of basically what Eric said.

0:38:33.440 --> 0:38:36.560
<v Speaker 1>I mean, if if there's anything happening with US legalization,

0:38:36.560 --> 0:38:39.160
<v Speaker 1>whether it's federally or more states, those are the stocks

0:38:39.200 --> 0:38:41.600
<v Speaker 1>that are going to benefit the most. I actually did

0:38:41.719 --> 0:38:44.279
<v Speaker 1>some research on this and created like an index of

0:38:44.400 --> 0:38:47.160
<v Speaker 1>just ms like multi state operators, some that are included

0:38:47.160 --> 0:38:49.160
<v Speaker 1>in that ets, some that aren't. And I mean just

0:38:49.280 --> 0:38:51.719
<v Speaker 1>since March that thing, it's the market cap of all

0:38:51.760 --> 0:38:55.040
<v Speaker 1>those companies is up three hundred and thirty five So

0:38:55.160 --> 0:38:57.400
<v Speaker 1>we're talking like massive growth. A lot of that's on

0:38:57.440 --> 0:39:00.560
<v Speaker 1>the referendum from the election in November to states past

0:39:00.680 --> 0:39:04.239
<v Speaker 1>legalization in different matters. But if you're looking for legalization

0:39:04.280 --> 0:39:06.560
<v Speaker 1>in the US and you're buying MJ I mean it's

0:39:06.600 --> 0:39:09.040
<v Speaker 1>just too exposed to Canada to who truly benefit. And

0:39:09.120 --> 0:39:11.759
<v Speaker 1>one could argue that even legalization the US might even

0:39:11.800 --> 0:39:13.720
<v Speaker 1>be a bad thing for some of those Canadian companies,

0:39:13.760 --> 0:39:16.239
<v Speaker 1>which we saw some of those Canadian pot companies or

0:39:16.280 --> 0:39:21.399
<v Speaker 1>marijuana companies actually saw a negative impact. So definitely something

0:39:21.480 --> 0:39:24.320
<v Speaker 1>to be watching going forward, especially at the US political landscape.

0:39:24.480 --> 0:39:28.000
<v Speaker 1>And Morgan, what about what about ARC? Yeah? That was

0:39:28.040 --> 0:39:30.680
<v Speaker 1>like a no brainer, right, Yeah, pretty classic pick. But

0:39:30.960 --> 0:39:32.799
<v Speaker 1>I mean I think it would be crazy to say

0:39:32.800 --> 0:39:34.960
<v Speaker 1>we're not watching it next year. You know, I think

0:39:35.080 --> 0:39:40.640
<v Speaker 1>they they are high conviction shop and they are full transparencies.

0:39:40.680 --> 0:39:44.000
<v Speaker 1>We actually get to see what their high conviction choices

0:39:44.040 --> 0:39:47.440
<v Speaker 1>are here. But you know, they're trying to blend in

0:39:47.560 --> 0:39:51.560
<v Speaker 1>this fund. They're sort of including all their innovation platforms

0:39:51.800 --> 0:39:54.000
<v Speaker 1>um and so you really get a taste of kind

0:39:54.040 --> 0:39:57.759
<v Speaker 1>of full range here. So always interesting to watch and

0:39:57.800 --> 0:40:00.880
<v Speaker 1>see where their high conviction is. Sarah Vegas, what do

0:40:00.960 --> 0:40:03.080
<v Speaker 1>you make of the busses pick? Yeah, the d f

0:40:03.280 --> 0:40:06.600
<v Speaker 1>AU one is interesting. Well, I don't think the product

0:40:06.680 --> 0:40:10.480
<v Speaker 1>itself is that interesting. It's the it's d f A pick.

0:40:10.600 --> 0:40:14.880
<v Speaker 1>I like, um, you know, they launched these few ETFs,

0:40:14.960 --> 0:40:17.600
<v Speaker 1>then they did this massive conversion right behind it, so

0:40:17.680 --> 0:40:20.080
<v Speaker 1>they're coming into the industry with a bullet, they're now

0:40:20.120 --> 0:40:22.560
<v Speaker 1>going to be like the eleventh biggest issue where in

0:40:22.640 --> 0:40:26.200
<v Speaker 1>the market. So they came in very very aggressively. So

0:40:26.680 --> 0:40:28.600
<v Speaker 1>and what we've seen is firms that have done this,

0:40:29.080 --> 0:40:31.359
<v Speaker 1>the ones that really take it seriously and come come

0:40:31.400 --> 0:40:33.320
<v Speaker 1>in very aggressively are the ones that do tend to

0:40:33.400 --> 0:40:35.759
<v Speaker 1>do a little bit better. So, UM, that's that's a

0:40:35.800 --> 0:40:38.440
<v Speaker 1>really good pick. I think to judge how d f

0:40:38.520 --> 0:40:41.480
<v Speaker 1>A and frankly, how other active managers are going to follow.

0:40:42.200 --> 0:40:45.719
<v Speaker 1>Going back to ARC specifically, everyone likes to talk about ARC,

0:40:45.800 --> 0:40:48.600
<v Speaker 1>and Cathy would, but she has another product this year

0:40:48.640 --> 0:40:52.239
<v Speaker 1>that's beating ARC a r k K and everyone likes

0:40:52.280 --> 0:40:55.279
<v Speaker 1>to talk about ARC as a bubble bubble product. It's

0:40:55.280 --> 0:40:57.799
<v Speaker 1>getting all of its benett from Tesla, but air KG

0:40:57.960 --> 0:41:00.080
<v Speaker 1>doesn't hold Tesla's that you know, bout revolution et F,

0:41:00.480 --> 0:41:03.440
<v Speaker 1>which is another example of just how on fire Cathy

0:41:03.480 --> 0:41:06.080
<v Speaker 1>would has been. Um. The other thing is Tesla. It's

0:41:06.160 --> 0:41:08.440
<v Speaker 1>it's a big it's the largest contributor to a r

0:41:08.520 --> 0:41:11.840
<v Speaker 1>k K, but it's only contributed sevent of those returns

0:41:11.920 --> 0:41:14.280
<v Speaker 1>or since its inception, so it's not like it's solely

0:41:14.320 --> 0:41:16.040
<v Speaker 1>a test of fund. They're making a lot of other

0:41:16.160 --> 0:41:20.000
<v Speaker 1>high concentration bets, doing a lot of trading around their portfolio. Um,

0:41:20.120 --> 0:41:22.640
<v Speaker 1>that's generating alpha for them. So you hear a lot

0:41:22.719 --> 0:41:25.480
<v Speaker 1>of like financial media and Twitter talking about how bad

0:41:25.560 --> 0:41:27.320
<v Speaker 1>these products are, but when you dive in, it's not

0:41:27.520 --> 0:41:31.200
<v Speaker 1>really as um concentrated or solely due to one or

0:41:31.239 --> 0:41:32.960
<v Speaker 1>two stocks. It's a very They're getting a lot of

0:41:33.000 --> 0:41:36.640
<v Speaker 1>breath from their performance. Okay, hey, Eric, I want to

0:41:36.719 --> 0:41:39.799
<v Speaker 1>ask you at at Business Week, we do this thing

0:41:39.880 --> 0:41:42.680
<v Speaker 1>called the Jealousy List every year, which is we ask

0:41:43.080 --> 0:41:48.200
<v Speaker 1>a ton of the editors and writers, photo design, et cetera.

0:41:48.600 --> 0:41:51.960
<v Speaker 1>What was the one story that you were most jealous

0:41:52.080 --> 0:41:53.840
<v Speaker 1>of that we did not publish? And I want to

0:41:53.920 --> 0:41:57.319
<v Speaker 1>ask you, of all your team's picks, whose pick are

0:41:57.400 --> 0:41:59.840
<v Speaker 1>you most jealous of that wasn't your own. I'll go

0:42:00.040 --> 0:42:03.560
<v Speaker 1>with I c VT Morgan's pick. Um actually just forgot

0:42:03.600 --> 0:42:05.640
<v Speaker 1>it existed. I mean every other one that was picked

0:42:05.719 --> 0:42:09.600
<v Speaker 1>I pretty I mean at least I knew about um.

0:42:09.880 --> 0:42:11.520
<v Speaker 1>This is just one. You know, when it comes to

0:42:11.680 --> 0:42:14.200
<v Speaker 1>like prefers and convertibles and some of the stuff that's

0:42:14.200 --> 0:42:17.839
<v Speaker 1>sort of a little on the more wonky side, these

0:42:17.880 --> 0:42:20.320
<v Speaker 1>are ones that you sometimes forget about when you're constantly

0:42:20.360 --> 0:42:24.080
<v Speaker 1>looking at say the aggregate bond ETFs or uh, you know,

0:42:24.360 --> 0:42:27.359
<v Speaker 1>the high yield um and I like it, and it's

0:42:27.400 --> 0:42:29.320
<v Speaker 1>I looked at it's it's over a billion dollars, so

0:42:29.400 --> 0:42:31.680
<v Speaker 1>it's a you know, study t F. It's twenty BIPs

0:42:32.360 --> 0:42:34.360
<v Speaker 1>and yeah, I think it's great. And the returns were shocking.

0:42:34.480 --> 0:42:36.640
<v Speaker 1>If you had asked me how much this was up

0:42:36.680 --> 0:42:38.480
<v Speaker 1>this year, I would have been way off. So I

0:42:38.640 --> 0:42:41.440
<v Speaker 1>just like that. I was completely surprised by it. And

0:42:41.560 --> 0:42:43.840
<v Speaker 1>I honestly just you know, one of those ones you

0:42:43.920 --> 0:42:46.960
<v Speaker 1>just don't even realize is there, to be honest, which

0:42:47.000 --> 0:42:49.520
<v Speaker 1>at a billion dollars is probably not a good thing

0:42:49.600 --> 0:42:52.920
<v Speaker 1>to say about myself as an analyst. I mean, I

0:42:52.920 --> 0:42:54.759
<v Speaker 1>should probably have had that one in my mind, but

0:42:54.840 --> 0:42:57.920
<v Speaker 1>I just didn't. All Right, So I'm no math wizard,

0:42:57.960 --> 0:42:59.880
<v Speaker 1>but I do have a kindergardener that you know is

0:43:00.080 --> 0:43:02.560
<v Speaker 1>doing zoom kindergarten, and we're doing a lot of math together.

0:43:02.960 --> 0:43:05.080
<v Speaker 1>There's four of you. You each had five picks. That

0:43:05.200 --> 0:43:08.759
<v Speaker 1>brings us to twenty. How do we get to so? Um?

0:43:09.000 --> 0:43:11.279
<v Speaker 1>We were thinking about that and as we looked at

0:43:11.320 --> 0:43:14.719
<v Speaker 1>our list, two things. One we felt we had undersold

0:43:14.840 --> 0:43:17.120
<v Speaker 1>fixed income a little bit, but then too, one of

0:43:17.200 --> 0:43:20.520
<v Speaker 1>our big themes this year is in our outlook is

0:43:20.880 --> 0:43:23.440
<v Speaker 1>fixed income. So we decided to pick l q D

0:43:24.040 --> 0:43:27.239
<v Speaker 1>as one that we're watching next house. Pick Team, Pick,

0:43:27.400 --> 0:43:30.879
<v Speaker 1>Team Pick. This is the cherry on top of what's

0:43:30.920 --> 0:43:34.640
<v Speaker 1>already a large cake. Yeah, and what is it again?

0:43:34.960 --> 0:43:37.919
<v Speaker 1>It's it's a I shares investment gray bondy TF. It's

0:43:38.360 --> 0:43:40.520
<v Speaker 1>it's sort of become, as James put in his notes,

0:43:40.600 --> 0:43:44.400
<v Speaker 1>sort of the new bond dealer, as there's less inventory

0:43:44.560 --> 0:43:47.680
<v Speaker 1>at at traditional bond dealers. People use this thing all

0:43:47.680 --> 0:43:50.040
<v Speaker 1>the time for many different purposes, like a giant hotel

0:43:50.560 --> 0:43:52.120
<v Speaker 1>with all kinds of people coming in and out of it.

0:43:52.200 --> 0:43:57.520
<v Speaker 1>And this this mart sell off. Um. It's volume exploded um,

0:43:57.920 --> 0:44:01.480
<v Speaker 1>and people leaned on it and it worked. And then

0:44:01.520 --> 0:44:03.120
<v Speaker 1>the FED said they're going to buy E T f

0:44:03.200 --> 0:44:04.600
<v Speaker 1>S and the one they own the most of is

0:44:04.760 --> 0:44:07.719
<v Speaker 1>l q D. Was it was a wonderful endorsement for

0:44:07.880 --> 0:44:10.040
<v Speaker 1>E T S, I think and the assets and this

0:44:10.160 --> 0:44:13.000
<v Speaker 1>thing doubled from the March low of twenty eight billion,

0:44:13.040 --> 0:44:16.719
<v Speaker 1>they're now at fifty seven billion dollars. It's rare to

0:44:16.800 --> 0:44:19.160
<v Speaker 1>get a asset growth in an e t F that's

0:44:19.200 --> 0:44:22.520
<v Speaker 1>already massive, and so we're gonna see what happens next year.

0:44:22.560 --> 0:44:24.600
<v Speaker 1>This thing will be interesting. Will the Fed potentially look

0:44:24.640 --> 0:44:26.920
<v Speaker 1>to equity e t f s, Will they start unloading

0:44:26.960 --> 0:44:30.400
<v Speaker 1>their bond ETFs? Either way, we're very bullish fixed income.

0:44:30.719 --> 0:44:32.840
<v Speaker 1>This is one of those things where the Fed putting

0:44:32.880 --> 0:44:34.239
<v Speaker 1>its money behind. And one it was a lot of

0:44:34.280 --> 0:44:36.040
<v Speaker 1>people trying to front run, but also it's kind of

0:44:36.120 --> 0:44:38.880
<v Speaker 1>ended up like a snowball as more trading happens, as

0:44:38.920 --> 0:44:40.759
<v Speaker 1>more money comes into it, more and more people are

0:44:40.800 --> 0:44:42.959
<v Speaker 1>going to start using it kind of as a bond

0:44:43.000 --> 0:44:45.480
<v Speaker 1>dealer as you mentioned, and the other it's just becomes

0:44:45.520 --> 0:44:47.960
<v Speaker 1>more liquid and more institutional attention, and that all of

0:44:48.040 --> 0:44:51.640
<v Speaker 1>that kind of snowballs onto each other. UM. So this

0:44:51.760 --> 0:44:53.720
<v Speaker 1>is something we're watching to see how long that snowball

0:44:53.760 --> 0:44:58.479
<v Speaker 1>can go on, um and will it continue. James Morgan, Tom,

0:44:58.880 --> 0:45:02.040
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much for joining us on Trillions. Thank you,

0:45:02.360 --> 0:45:10.000
<v Speaker 1>thanks for having us, Thanks for listening to Trillions until

0:45:10.080 --> 0:45:12.160
<v Speaker 1>next time. You can find us on the Bloomberg terminal,

0:45:12.400 --> 0:45:16.759
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and where else you'd

0:45:16.760 --> 0:45:19.000
<v Speaker 1>like to listen. We'd love to hear from you. We're

0:45:19.040 --> 0:45:22.920
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter. I'm at Joel Webber Show. He's at Eric Falcinos.

0:45:23.320 --> 0:45:27.040
<v Speaker 1>You can find Morgan at M Barnes six, James at

0:45:27.239 --> 0:45:31.920
<v Speaker 1>J SEF, and Athanacios at Ta Sara Phagas. As always,

0:45:31.960 --> 0:45:34.520
<v Speaker 1>good luck spelling that one. This episode of Trillions was

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<v Speaker 1>produced by Magnus Hendrickson. Francesca Levie is the head of

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Podcast. Bye.