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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Thomas Viola and joining me throughout the

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Speaker 1: football season none other than the King of Content, the

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Speaker 1: high Septum of Soaps, the podcast power listener, and long

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Speaker 1: suffering Cowboys fan, the oracle himself, Matt Friedman. And today

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Speaker 1: we are joined by a very very special guest, v

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Speaker 1: Sin's own you want to talk about Kings of content,

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Speaker 1: the King of the fast food, power rankings, and sports

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Speaker 1: betting expert Matt Humans. Guys, thank you so much for

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Speaker 1: being with us here today.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's quite the intro for me.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you got to like bump up the intro

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Speaker 3: for the guest, tom Really.

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Speaker 1: Matt Humans is a man who needs no introduction.

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Speaker 2: That's true, Matt.

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Speaker 1: How are you doing today?

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Speaker 4: Touchdown, Tommy.

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Speaker 5: You're great to be on with you today, you two, Matt,

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Speaker 5: and let's jump into It's not fast food season, it's

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Speaker 5: football season now.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, we are right on the start of the season

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Speaker 1: and that means it's time for us to make some predictions.

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Speaker 1: Look at some bets.

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Speaker 2: Today.

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Speaker 1: We're going to be giving out a couple of our

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Speaker 1: favorite season long bets and we'll sprinkle in a long shot,

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Speaker 1: and you know, we have to go with our Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl picks as well. But let's start it off here.

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Speaker 1: Matt Friedman, I'm gonna give you the floor. What is

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Speaker 1: your first favorite bet for this upcoming NFL season?

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Speaker 2: All right, well, I think humans.

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Speaker 3: I snuck a look at what he's talking about. He's

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Speaker 3: focused on teams, So I'm going to focus a little

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Speaker 3: bit more on some of the players. And so I'm

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Speaker 3: looking at Jamar Chase Offensive Player of the Year thirty

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Speaker 3: to one at bet MGM. And for years, this award

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Speaker 3: often went to you know, whatever quarterback or sometimes running

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Speaker 3: back who won the MVP Award or whichever running back

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Speaker 3: had the best season. However, over the past five years,

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Speaker 3: we've seen you know, I think two shifts and how

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Speaker 3: the award has been distributed. First, the award has moved

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Speaker 3: away from MVP winners and towards skill position players who

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Speaker 3: weren't real MVP candidates, so kind of like the award

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Speaker 3: that goes to the guy who had an awesome season

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Speaker 3: but wasn't really in the conversation. And then the second,

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Speaker 3: the second shift, the award has gone away from running

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Speaker 3: backs and towards wide receivers. So you know, for years

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Speaker 3: and years, just wide receivers had no chance of getting

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Speaker 3: this award unless they were Jerry Rice. But you know,

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Speaker 3: out of two of the past five years, really two

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Speaker 3: of the past three years, we have seen Michael Thomas

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Speaker 3: and Cooper Cupp get this award. And I think there's

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Speaker 3: a chance that we see Jamar Chase have that kind

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Speaker 3: of season where he gets i'd say like two out

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Speaker 3: of the three Triple Crown receiving statistics. So look at

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Speaker 3: what Michael Thomas did in twenty nineteen, number one in

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Speaker 3: the league in receptions, number one in receiving yards. Last year,

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Speaker 3: Cooper Cup number one receptions yards and receiving touchdowns. I

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Speaker 3: think we could see Chase do something like that. Last

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Speaker 3: year is a twenty one year old rookie after not

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Speaker 3: playing his final season in college. He was number four

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Speaker 3: in receiving yards, number three in receiving touchdowns. He could

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Speaker 3: be even better this year as he continues to develop,

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Speaker 3: and we could see the angles lean a little bit

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Speaker 3: more into the passing game than they did of the

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Speaker 3: first half season last year. So Chase, he's someone I'm

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Speaker 3: really interested in. And if you look at the odds

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Speaker 3: to win or the odds to lead the league in

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Speaker 3: receiving yards. He is right up there with Cupp, Jefferson,

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Speaker 3: and DeVante Adams, but he's you know, quite a bit

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Speaker 3: behind them.

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Speaker 2: To win.

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Speaker 3: Offensive Player of the Year. And so I think this

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Speaker 3: is a way of kind of arbitraging that market and

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Speaker 3: getting some better odds given I think just how close

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Speaker 3: and talent he is to those other players.

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Speaker 1: I think my only fear here is the fact that

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Speaker 1: there are a bunch of mouths to feed in that offense.

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Speaker 1: But then again, last year we saw what Jamar Chase

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Speaker 1: was already able to do, and now he's got another

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Speaker 1: year in the NFL, especially at thirty to one. I

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Speaker 1: like the pricing on this bet over at bet MGM,

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Speaker 1: Matt Humans, what say you?

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Speaker 5: I like Jamar Chase a lot. It's interesting with Cooper

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Speaker 5: Cup had one hundred and forty five. I have receptions

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Speaker 5: in sixteen tds last year. I always wonder what what's

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Speaker 5: gonna take for a receiver or running back to win MVP.

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Speaker 5: It seems like it's gonna be strictly a quarterback award.

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Speaker 5: I'm not going to focus on, like you said, the

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Speaker 5: individual award stuff. I'm gonna hit Matt where it hurts,

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Speaker 5: and I'm gonna bet against his Dallas Cowboys. So I'm

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Speaker 5: gonna go with the Philadelphia Eagles as my best bet

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Speaker 5: to win the NFC East.

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Speaker 4: And now I bet this.

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna say about six weeks ago plus one eighty

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Speaker 5: five at Circus Sports here in Vegas. I think a

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Speaker 5: bet MGM, CIRCA a lot of books around, you're gonna

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Speaker 5: find about plus one fifty.

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Speaker 4: I even saw.

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Speaker 5: The Eagles and Cowboys move into co favorites on this

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Speaker 5: bet at a couple of books in recent days. And

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Speaker 5: obviously the injury to Tyron Smith on the Cowboys offensive

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Speaker 5: line has been a factor, and that I've seen a

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Speaker 5: decline in the Dallas offensive line in the past couple

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Speaker 5: of years anyway, and we've all seen the decline in

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Speaker 5: Ezekiel Elliott, who's a step slow and not even the Cowboys'

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Speaker 5: best running back anymore. I think it's Tony Pollard. But

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Speaker 5: when I look at the Eagles, I really see a

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Speaker 5: team here that's on the rise. The Cowboys went twelve

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Speaker 5: and five in that division last year, with a six

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Speaker 5: game sweep inside the division. They blew out the Eagles

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Speaker 5: in a two head to head matchups. I think the

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Speaker 5: average margin of victory for Dallas is twenty two point

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Speaker 5: five points. It's going to be payback time this year.

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Speaker 5: I really like Jalen Hurts, and I know a lot

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Speaker 5: of people are going to have an opposing view of Hertz,

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Speaker 5: but I'm okay with that. He's only won nine of

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Speaker 5: his nineteen starts in two seasons. His numbers were not

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Speaker 5: great last year. But one thing about Hurts is he's

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Speaker 5: got so many weapons around him. When you look at

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Speaker 5: the Bears and Justin Fields, the Dolphins and Tua. The

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Speaker 5: Dolphins did everything they can to put weapons around Tua.

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Speaker 5: The Bears did nothing really to help out Justin Fields.

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Speaker 5: The Eagles have done everything possible to help out Jalen

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Speaker 5: Hurts and put him in a position to succeed in

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Speaker 5: rushing tds last year, in addition to his twenty twenty

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Speaker 5: two passing tds. But they traded for veteran receiver AJ

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Speaker 5: Brown on draft Day. You've got DeVonta Smith, Qlez Watkins,

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Speaker 5: Jalen Rager, Zach Paskell. You really have six really talented receivers.

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Speaker 5: You got speed receivers. You're deep at that position. Dallas

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Speaker 5: got it a tight end he's above average running backs

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Speaker 5: Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, you've got an offensive line I

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Speaker 5: think ranks in the top five in the NFL. That's

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Speaker 5: where Dallas has dipped and the Eagles are on the

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Speaker 5: rise too. I'm going to say this, the Eagles ranked

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Speaker 5: number one in the NFL and rushing last season, and

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Speaker 5: a lot of people probably don't realize that one hundred

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Speaker 5: and fifty nine points seven yards per game.

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Speaker 4: They were twelfth in scoring.

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Speaker 5: I think the offense is going to be a lot

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Speaker 5: more explosive for the Eagles this season. I actually think

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Speaker 5: the defensive front is going to be pretty solid as well.

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Speaker 5: So a lot of it falls on Jalen Hurts. Can

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Speaker 5: he take the next step? I think he can. I'm

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Speaker 5: going to pick the Eagles to win the NFC East

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Speaker 5: and make bet the Eagles every way possible. Now they

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Speaker 5: win totals up from eight and a half to nine

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Speaker 5: and a half, so there's a lot of value lost

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Speaker 5: in that bet. But you can bet Jalen Hurts over

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Speaker 5: his passing yards prop, which I've seen at thirty five fifty.

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Speaker 4: I don't think that's too much.

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Speaker 5: I would bet the Eagles over three and a half

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Speaker 5: wins in the division and the Eagles to make the playoffs.

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Speaker 5: So the NFC East has not had a repeat winner

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Speaker 5: in more than fifteen years. I don't think the Cowboys

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Speaker 5: are going to repeat. Let's go with the Eagles to

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Speaker 5: win the division.

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Speaker 1: It would be an all time bad beat for Friedman

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Speaker 1: here if Jalen Hurts were to win the MVP this season, right, Matt.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I was on Hurts last year to win MVP

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Speaker 3: at eighty to one, and I gotta say, humans, I

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Speaker 3: love this take. I'm right there with you. I love

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Speaker 3: hate the Dallas Cowboys, and I do think that the

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Speaker 3: Eagles are the best team in this division for all

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Speaker 3: of the reasons that you outlaid there. Honestly, I think

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Speaker 3: that they have the best offensive line. In my opinion,

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Speaker 3: I think top five is selling them a little short.

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Speaker 3: I'm with you one hundred percent on this, Okay.

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Speaker 1: I'm with you both because my first bet up on

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Speaker 1: this list was taking that just a slight step further.

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Speaker 1: I have the Eagles to be the one seed in

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Speaker 1: the NFC this year. At fourteen to one. Football Outsiders

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Speaker 1: projects him to have the best record in the NFC,

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Speaker 1: beating out both the Bucks and the Rams, which they

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Speaker 1: have the easiest schedule in the league. They play, of

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Speaker 1: course the NFC East twice, then you've got the North

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Speaker 1: and the AFC South. That's a fantastic schedule for them

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Speaker 1: to be playing here. The Rams meanwhile, they play the

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Speaker 1: second toughest schedule and the Bucks. This is not the

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Speaker 1: Bucks team that won the Super Bowl. This is a

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Speaker 1: Bucks team that's now got a lot of injury issues

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Speaker 1: in the wide receiver position. The offensive line is now

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Speaker 1: littered with question marks. And if you're going to protect

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Speaker 1: a forty five year old quarterback, I don't care that

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Speaker 1: it's Tom Brady. The one way that people beat him

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Speaker 1: is with interior pressure, and I think he's gonna see

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Speaker 1: a lot more of that this year. And like you

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Speaker 1: guys said, this Eagles team is stacked. You've got all

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Speaker 1: of those weapons, AJ Brown coming in. It's all gonna

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Speaker 1: come down to Jalen Hurts and they've put him in

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Speaker 1: the best possible position to succeed. And quite frankly, even

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Speaker 1: if something happens to him, you've still got my boy

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Speaker 1: Gardner Minshew back there in the backup spot who can

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Speaker 1: keep this bet alive. Obviously, it hurts your chances there.

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Speaker 1: But if something bad happens, there are a lot worse

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Speaker 1: situations that you could be in. I'm with you, guys,

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Speaker 1: I think this Eagles team can get to the twelve

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Speaker 1: or thirteen wins that they need. I'm taking the Eagles

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Speaker 1: at fourteen to one for the one seed.

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Speaker 5: Wow, twelve or thirteen wins. Now, you're shooting sky high

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Speaker 5: on the Eagles here. I think you made an important

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Speaker 5: point though. When you get about futures on a football team,

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Speaker 5: you don't want too much riding in the starting quarterback

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Speaker 5: in case he goes down an injury. Think about the

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Speaker 5: Packers of Aaron Rodgers goes down, They're screwed, right. The Eagles,

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Speaker 5: I think, hopefully nothing happens to Hertz, but they can

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Speaker 5: still win with Gardner Minshew and I think they can

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Speaker 5: still win ten or eleven games if he's a quarterback.

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Speaker 5: So let's go with it. I like this podcast could

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Speaker 5: be very popular in Philadelphia.

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Speaker 1: I think so. I mean, at the very least, we

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Speaker 1: won't be upsetting that fan, which we know can be

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Speaker 1: follow at all. Matt Friedman, give us your second pick here.

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Speaker 3: All right, I'm going on the other side of the ball.

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Speaker 3: Defensive player of the year Aaron Donald nine to one

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Speaker 3: at bet MGM, So at nine hundred odds, he has

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Speaker 3: ten percent implied odds to win Defensive Player of the Year.

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Speaker 3: And you know, I don't I might be underthinking this.

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Speaker 3: I'm definitely not gonna overthink it. But let's say there

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Speaker 3: are six players who have like a real chance to

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Speaker 3: win this award, Miles Garrett, TJ. Watt, Micah Parsons, the

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Speaker 3: Bosa brothers, and then Aaron Donald. So if you just

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Speaker 3: divvy that up, you know one six, that's sixteen point

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Speaker 3: seven percent. But really, Donald's real odds are way higher

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Speaker 3: than that. In twenty fourteen he won Defensive Rookie of

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Speaker 3: the Year, and in the seven years since then, he's

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Speaker 3: been an All Pro each season, He's never finished outside

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Speaker 3: the top five in Defensive Player of the Year voting.

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Speaker 3: In fact, he's been a top three finisher five times.

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Speaker 3: Over the past five years. He's won the award a

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Speaker 3: record tying three times. He's thirty one, so at some

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Speaker 3: point he's going to start to slow down. He does

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Speaker 3: have significant competition for the award in Watton Parsons. They

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Speaker 3: finished top two last year. But man, until we see

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Speaker 3: Donald finish outside the top five in Defensive Player of

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Speaker 3: the Year voting, Like, I think you just kind of

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Speaker 3: your honor bound. You have to bet on him at

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Speaker 3: anything greater than plus five hundred.

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Speaker 1: I think the only thing going against you is voter

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Speaker 1: fatigue and the fact that he's won it three times.

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Speaker 1: And when you're dealing with these awards, people tend to

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Speaker 1: build a narrative just that they don't have to vote

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Speaker 1: for the same guy. It's why Trueho Tani doesn't win

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Speaker 1: the MVP every year in baseball? Humans, what do you

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Speaker 1: think and what's your next pack?

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Speaker 5: You know, I could talk for ten minutes about show

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Speaker 5: Hey Otani too, and I think he's the most valuable

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Speaker 5: player in baseball. How many games has Aaron Aaron Judge

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Speaker 5: started on the mound for the Yankees this year? Actually,

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Speaker 5: I want to keep it in the NFC West. And

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Speaker 5: by the way, I'm a Yankees fan, so I love

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Speaker 5: Aaron Judge. But I don't know how you can say

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Speaker 5: show Hey Otani is not the MVP anyway, So when

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Speaker 5: you talk about Aaron Donald and the Rams, I like him,

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Speaker 5: I don't love him. This year, no team's repeated as

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Speaker 5: Super Bowl winner since two thousand and four. I think

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Speaker 5: you actually lose your edge when you win the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 5: and I don't think they're going to come back as hungry. Also,

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Speaker 5: I wanted to say, I like how when Matt gives

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Speaker 5: out his best bet, then Tom tries to talk about

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Speaker 5: why it's not gonna happen. I'm gonna go with the

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna going with the forty nine ers to win

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Speaker 5: the NFC West, and now this is gonna be my

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Speaker 5: second best bet here. I played him a plus. I

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Speaker 5: think one fifty five. You can find that price out

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Speaker 5: there pretty much everywhere. Don't forget this team blew a

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Speaker 5: ten point lead in the fourth quarter in the NFC

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Speaker 5: Title Game. A lot of people want to you know,

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Speaker 5: you tend to remember the Rams won the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 5: and you think there's this great separation between these teams.

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Speaker 5: Not the case at all. The Rams won their final

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Speaker 5: three playoff games by three points each, and the Niners

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Speaker 5: blew that NFC title game on the road. I think

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Speaker 5: Deebo Samuel being back is a must for the forty

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Speaker 5: nine ers. They had to do what it took to

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Speaker 5: make him happy and bring you him back because you

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Speaker 5: got to surround Trey Lance. You know, we talked about

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Speaker 5: justin fields Jalen Hurts Toua. You got to surround Trey

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Speaker 5: Lance with as great a support system as possible if

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Speaker 5: he's going to succeed. This is a guy who's thrown

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Speaker 5: barely over one hundred passes in game action in the

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Speaker 5: last two years. Now he's got Jimmy g as his backup.

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Speaker 5: But the thing I like about the forty nine Ers

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Speaker 5: more than Trey Lance is the defense. If you look

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Speaker 5: at the Niners defense last year, top ten and basically

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Speaker 5: every key category, you could say this is a top

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Speaker 5: five defense in the NFL. Nick Bosa, Fred Warner two

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Speaker 5: of the best individual defensive players in the league behind

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Speaker 5: Aaron Donald obviously, but I think Kyle Shanahan's perfect coacht

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Speaker 5: to bring Trey Lance along and with Deebo, Samuel, George

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Speaker 5: Kittle and all those weapons round him in the offense,

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Speaker 5: I think the ceiling is higher for the forty nine

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Speaker 5: Ers with Tray Lance at quarterback. Immediately, the Niners might

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Speaker 5: be better off starting Jimmy G. That's not going to happen.

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Speaker 5: It's gonna's still Trey Lance's team. He's got a sink

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Speaker 5: or swim if he really starts to sink. Maybe by

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Speaker 5: week six, Jimmy g could get the call.

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Speaker 4: But I like Lance.

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Speaker 5: I think he's gonna have good weeks, He's gonna have

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Speaker 5: bad weeks because he's so inexperienced. I think the forty

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Speaker 5: nine Ers have a high ceiling here this year, and

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna go with them to take down the Rams

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Speaker 5: in the NFC West at a good price here plus

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Speaker 5: one fifty five, and I think we'll see more good

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Speaker 5: than bad from Lance this season, and that's what I'm

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Speaker 5: gonna roll with. I'm a little bit concerned too about

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Speaker 5: the Rams. Was Matthew Stafford's elbow injury, and I just

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Speaker 5: don't think the Rams are a deep team that can

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Speaker 5: withstand a lot of injuries. They have so many high

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Speaker 5: priced players. I don't know how they can put all

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Speaker 5: these guys under the cap and make it work. It's

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Speaker 5: almost it's almost like they're the Los Angeles Dodgers and

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Speaker 5: it's gonna pay a luxury tax and ignore the cap.

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Speaker 5: But I think the I think it's a forty nine

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Speaker 5: Ers year as long as Trey Lance develop and Kyle

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Speaker 5: Shanahan brings him along. I love the rest of the

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Speaker 5: team again, kind of like the Eagles, the quarterbacks the key.

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Speaker 4: And I'm gonna bet on the Niners here to win

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Speaker 4: the division.

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Speaker 1: The Rams are absolutely playing Madden with the salary cap off.

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Speaker 1: That's how they're treating this league right now. It's been

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Speaker 1: ridiculous who they've been able to stack up. My issue

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Speaker 1: is you talk about the good and the bad with

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Speaker 1: Trey Lance, I think we're gonna see a lot more bad.

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Speaker 1: I'm just really low on him. I mean, even the

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Speaker 1: forty nine ers and I get that the trade market

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Speaker 1: just never materialized. They said, well, we might as well

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Speaker 1: bring Jimmy G back on a cheaper deal. But when you,

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Speaker 1: let's face it, there's some insurance going on there. And

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Speaker 1: when Jimmy G is your insurance policy for your quarterback,

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Speaker 1: I'm even more worried about what you even think that

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Speaker 1: quarterback ceiling is. I'm worried about this team. I'm taking

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Speaker 1: there under Matt What do you think?

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Speaker 3: No, Tom, Sorry, you're wrong. And by the way, humans

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Speaker 3: is totally right. Anytime I say something, Tom's like, no, no, Friedman,

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Speaker 3: that's wrong. But Tom, Tom, you're wrong on this one. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 3: you're wrong on this one. Jimmy G is an elite

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Speaker 3: insurance policy like, he is immediately the best backup quarterback

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Speaker 3: in the league, and if you look like I don't

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Speaker 3: think he's great, but as a backup quarterback, he's fantastic.

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Speaker 2: And within that system, he knows the system, so it's

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Speaker 2: like a hand in the glove.

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Speaker 3: They don't really have to change all that much if

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Speaker 3: Lance gets injured, and so I think that really bolsters

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Speaker 3: the case for them to be able to take down

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Speaker 3: not just you know, the division champ, but also the

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Speaker 3: Super Bowl champ in winning the NFC West this year.

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Speaker 3: And yeah, I think the upside case that Human's laid

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Speaker 3: out for Lance, it's totally there. He's got the top

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Speaker 3: three draft capital, he's got the running ability, he's got

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Speaker 3: the strong arm, he's got the playmakers around him. He's

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Speaker 3: got Shanahan to help scheme open easy completions. In that defense,

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Speaker 3: I have them ranked number four overall. I think they're

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Speaker 3: number one in defensive line strength. I think they're the

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Speaker 3: best in the league, and in terms of off ball linebackers,

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Speaker 3: I think they're also top five in the league. So

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Speaker 3: on both sides of the ball, I think there are

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Speaker 3: reasons to be bullish on this team.

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Speaker 1: I get it. I just I feel like I feel

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Speaker 1: like everybody talks about the Bengals regressing this year, and

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Speaker 1: then the forty nine ers come around and everybody goes,

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Speaker 1: oh no, that they're not gonna regress, They're gonna be good.

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Speaker 1: I feel like they got even luckier than the Bengals

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Speaker 1: did down the stretch. Yes, the defense is absolutely legit,

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Speaker 1: but I just hope that Trey Lance gets benched and

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Speaker 1: we get Jimmy G back because I can go back

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Speaker 1: to my absolute favorite bet of the NFL season, Jimmy

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Speaker 1: g interceptions over point five. Hit it every week. But

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna stick in that division for my next pick

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Speaker 1: here and be even more negative. Matt, You're normally the

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Speaker 1: wet blanket on the show. I'm just trying to take

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Speaker 1: your role from you today. I'm going with the Seahawks

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Speaker 1: to have the worst record in the league at plus

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Speaker 1: seven to fifty. I talked about this on our Win

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Speaker 1: Total show. This team is going to be bad. They

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Speaker 1: made some puzzling roster moves that bring in some veterans

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Speaker 1: as if you're not actually trying to rebuild. But at

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Speaker 1: the end of the day, Gino Smith and Drew Locker,

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Speaker 1: your quarterback choices you're tanking. You're not winning a lot

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Speaker 1: of games with that team. The Texans and the Falcons

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Speaker 1: both have more talent, except maybe outside of receiver, but

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Speaker 1: DK Metcalf might not be on this team come trade

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Speaker 1: deadline time. The offensive line is going to be a mess,

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Speaker 1: and now you don't have Russell Wilson to mask that

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Speaker 1: with his elusiveness. Gino and Drew are gonna need all

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Speaker 1: the time that they have in the pocket that they

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Speaker 1: can get in the pocket, and they're not gonna have it.

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Speaker 1: And you lost Chris Carson, your top running back to

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Speaker 1: sudden retirement. The defense doesn't look great either. I think

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Speaker 1: I see I see a one number one pick in CJ.

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Speaker 1: Stroud in their future.

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Speaker 3: I like it, Tom, I do like it. If I

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Speaker 3: had to pick a team to be the worst in

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Speaker 3: the league, it would be the Seahawks because some of

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Speaker 3: the other teams in their their general tier, I think

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Speaker 3: they're at least trying to win games, like they're building

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Speaker 3: for the future. Davis Mills not a great quarterback, but

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Speaker 3: he flashed at the end of last season, and Houston's

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Speaker 3: trying to build their Atlanta's trying to build the Jets.

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Speaker 3: Your Jets trying to build, the Jags trying to build.

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Speaker 3: No one knows what's happening, including Pete Carroll. No one

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Speaker 3: knows what's happening in Seattle.

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Speaker 4: You know, it's interesting. I love this worst team in

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Speaker 4: the NFL debate because so many times people ask you

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Speaker 4: who's going to win this division or who's going to

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Speaker 4: win this award. Let's talk about who's the worst. Let's

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Speaker 4: flip it around. I think this is cool to have

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Speaker 4: this discussion because I think the Chicago Bears might be

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Speaker 4: the worst team in the league. Actually, the Bears. I

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Speaker 4: hate to use the word tanking, but the Bears really

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Speaker 4: should kind of tank for twenty twenty three. Their salary

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Speaker 4: cap is going to open up big time next year.

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Speaker 4: They should be building for next year and not trying

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Speaker 4: to win this year. You never really say that, you

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Speaker 4: don't want to try to lose games. But if you

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Speaker 4: look at what the Bears have done for Justin Fields,

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Speaker 4: nothing absolutely nothing really to help him, and they have

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Speaker 4: a below average defense. They hired a defensive head coach,

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Speaker 4: which is not going to really help Justin Fields. I

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Speaker 4: think the only upgrade the Bears have made is that

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Speaker 4: head coach, because you could put a You could put

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Speaker 4: a scarecrow prop him up on the sideline and that'd

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Speaker 4: be an upgrade from Matt Naggy. So that's one thing

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Speaker 4: the Bears have going for him.

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Speaker 5: But the Seahawks actually they've got some skill position talent

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Speaker 5: that the Bears don't have. When you talk about Tyler Lockett,

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Speaker 5: DK Metcalf or Shad Penny's going to be probably okay

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Speaker 5: as the number one running back, Noah f at tight end.

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Speaker 5: I think the Seahawks have done some right things in

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Speaker 5: terms of building, trading for all those draft picks, dumping

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Speaker 5: Russell Wilson, and the Bears need to do something like

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Speaker 5: that as well. But I think this is a great debate.

433
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:35,840
Speaker 5: I don't dislike your bet. I think there's a Jaguars

434
00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,120
Speaker 5: might even still be in this conversation for the worst

435
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:40,040
Speaker 5: team in the NFL. I know a lot of sharp

436
00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:42,159
Speaker 5: betterers who like him over their win total. I don't

437
00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:44,640
Speaker 5: necessarily I didn't like what I saw from this team

438
00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:47,320
Speaker 5: in the preseason, But yeah, I think this is a

439
00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:50,760
Speaker 5: fascinating debate. Who's going to be the worst in the league? Now,

440
00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:52,520
Speaker 5: who's going to be the best? Let's talk about that.

441
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:56,840
Speaker 5: I think that's you can find some pretty bad candidates

442
00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:57,439
Speaker 5: for this one.

443
00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 1: The only thing that worries me with the Jaguars is

444
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,359
Speaker 1: they at least get to play an easier schedule. You

445
00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:04,240
Speaker 1: can pick up a couple of those wins in the division.

446
00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:07,080
Speaker 1: I'm with you, I'm not blown away by this team.

447
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:09,359
Speaker 1: I think that there's still a couple of years away.

448
00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:12,480
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence is gonna have to unlearn the Urban Meyer year.

449
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:16,159
Speaker 1: And I like the Bears as well. I mean, I

450
00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:18,320
Speaker 1: guess you're saying that a certain veteran Nevada that we

451
00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 1: both know might be a little disappointed with is Justin

452
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:21,760
Speaker 1: Field's MVP.

453
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:26,119
Speaker 5: Bet Kessler didn't make that bad, did he?

454
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:27,880
Speaker 1: No comment?

455
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:29,880
Speaker 4: Come on?

456
00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,520
Speaker 1: We also have a running bet here in the house

457
00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:34,800
Speaker 1: of whose team is going to be able to have

458
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:36,640
Speaker 1: the most wins, and it's the most pitiful bet I've

459
00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:39,600
Speaker 1: ever seen because our teams are the Bears, Jets, and Seahawks.

460
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 1: I'm comfortable with the Jets not being the worst team

461
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:45,439
Speaker 1: solely because you look at that final stretch of the season,

462
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:49,800
Speaker 1: You've got the Jags, the Lions, the Seahawks. It's prime

463
00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 1: Jets win the last four games and look like a

464
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:55,360
Speaker 1: playoff team. So that everybody goes in the next season saying, oh,

465
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:57,720
Speaker 1: we don't have to blow everything up, and then they'll

466
00:21:57,720 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 1: just suck again next year into the last four games.

467
00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:01,920
Speaker 1: It's the only time they actually try. So I'm going

468
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:05,359
Speaker 1: with the Seahawks there, you know, go ahead.

469
00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:07,760
Speaker 5: Even spect to schedule out real quick, Tommy, because the

470
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:11,200
Speaker 5: Seahawks have four winnable home games, and that's why I

471
00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 5: was going to bet the Seahawks under their win total.

472
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:14,800
Speaker 5: And I started to break down the schedule, I was like, man,

473
00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 5: they can actually win some of these games. I still

474
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:19,800
Speaker 5: think they'll probably be like a five win team, but

475
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:22,040
Speaker 5: they do have some soft spots on the schedule. And

476
00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:25,480
Speaker 5: also I wanted to point out that Davis Mills might

477
00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:27,920
Speaker 5: have been the second best of the rookie quarterbacks last year.

478
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 5: I think Max Jones, you know, Mac Jones is probably

479
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:34,560
Speaker 5: the best. Davis Mills had sixteen tds, ten interceptions. He

480
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 5: might be on the rise. I think you make a

481
00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 5: strong case that he was number two of all the

482
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 5: rookie quarterbacks last year.

483
00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:43,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll say I do have something involving the Texans

484
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:45,720
Speaker 1: here to tease for later, but right now, Friedman, what

485
00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:46,520
Speaker 1: about you guys?

486
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 3: I think Davis Mills does help the case of the

487
00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:52,600
Speaker 3: Seahawks being the worst team in the league, and that

488
00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 3: a lot of the other teams in that range they

489
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:56,880
Speaker 3: have second year quarterbacks, so maybe some of those guys

490
00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 3: take a step forward, whereas the Seahawks have just Geno Smith.

491
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 3: And it's bad news all the way around. And in

492
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:04,679
Speaker 3: that house, who's going to have the most wins in

493
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:08,040
Speaker 3: that house? Between the Seahawks, the Bears, and the Jets.

494
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 3: Those three teams aren't going to combine for seventeen wins

495
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 3: like that. Absolutely, that's extraordinarily bad luck to have all

496
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:18,240
Speaker 3: three of you guys in the same domicile.

497
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:22,120
Speaker 1: It's really quite incredible. None of them we're all excited

498
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 1: for football season. No one's excited to watch their team play.

499
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:25,399
Speaker 4: You know.

500
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:27,639
Speaker 5: I actually kind of expect a tornado to hit that

501
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 5: house at some point of this season.

502
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:31,480
Speaker 4: You guys have such bad luck.

503
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,840
Speaker 1: It probably will happen. Friedman, what's your next pick?

504
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 3: All right, I'm looking at Saquon Barkley Comeback Player of

505
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 3: the Year sixteen to one at FanDuel. Barkley has top

506
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,400
Speaker 3: five odds to win this award, as do running backs

507
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:48,200
Speaker 3: Derek Henry and Christian McCaffrey, quarterback Jamis Winston, and wide

508
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:52,160
Speaker 3: receiver Michael Thomas. I'm just eliminating Winston and Thomas from

509
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 3: consideration given how tied they are to each other as teammates.

510
00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:58,680
Speaker 3: If one of these guys does well, the other guy

511
00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:01,200
Speaker 3: might do well, and so they could cancel each other

512
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 3: out for voters of this award. And as for the

513
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 3: running backs, I think Barkley as a talent is in

514
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:10,359
Speaker 3: the same tier as Henry and McCaffrey. As a rookie,

515
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 3: he led the league with over two thousand yards from scrimmage.

516
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 3: The next year after that, McCaffrey did it the year

517
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 3: after that, Derrick Henry did it. Like I think these

518
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 3: guys are all basically in the same tier, but Barkley

519
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:26,080
Speaker 3: is younger. I think the Giants have the better offensive line,

520
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 3: and I think he has the better offensive play caller

521
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 3: versus Todd Downing and Ben McAdoo for the Titans. In

522
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 3: the Panthers, so Henry McCaffrey, they probably should have the

523
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:40,399
Speaker 3: higher implied odds, but I think like just barely, and

524
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:43,679
Speaker 3: so for Barkley to have sixteen to one odds, whereas

525
00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:47,119
Speaker 3: you have Derrick Henry at plus four fifty and Christian

526
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:49,879
Speaker 3: McCaffrey at plus nine hundred. I think you're getting extra

527
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,920
Speaker 3: value with Barkley relative to those guys. I think his

528
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,679
Speaker 3: odds should be much closer. So he's the one that

529
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 3: I'm going with for comeback player.

530
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 1: I actually like. I think there's a ton of value

531
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:05,679
Speaker 1: there because Jameis Winston would be my pick in a vacuum,

532
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 1: but he's five to one. You're not getting anything there,

533
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:11,680
Speaker 1: and Saquon is. You can't find a more perfect situation

534
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:13,400
Speaker 1: than Saquon's for this year.

535
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, coming off of two years in which he hasn't

536
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 3: been able to play in his full self exactly.

537
00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 1: Never forget when Philip Rivers won the Award for coming

538
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:24,919
Speaker 1: back from being bad.

539
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:28,680
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540
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563
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:41,720
Speaker 5: I'll keep it. I'll keep it with the Jamis Winston team.

564
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:43,680
Speaker 5: And by the way, I love Saekuon Barkley. I was

565
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:45,359
Speaker 5: a big advocate for him when he came out of

566
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 5: Penn State. It's been really unfortunate to see the injuries

567
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:50,359
Speaker 5: because I thought he was going to be the best

568
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:52,879
Speaker 5: running back in the NFL. With those first couple of

569
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:54,919
Speaker 5: years in the league. He put up phenomenal numbers that

570
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 5: first year and that that's been injury riddled ever since.

571
00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 5: So I hope he can make a strong comeback. I'm

572
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:04,400
Speaker 5: gonna go Saints at three to one odds to win

573
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,160
Speaker 5: the NFC South. I think a lot of people are

574
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 5: a little too caught up in the Buccaneers and what

575
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 5: they did two years ago. They've got injuries on the

576
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:15,439
Speaker 5: offensive line, they got some problems right now. It's not

577
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:17,920
Speaker 5: really the same team they had two years ago. I

578
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:20,080
Speaker 5: don't know why Tom Brady missed a week. I don't

579
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:21,920
Speaker 5: really care why he missed a week or ten days

580
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:24,919
Speaker 5: of camp, unless he went to get plastic surgery on

581
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,960
Speaker 5: his face. Tommy is do you think there's a chance

582
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 5: that happened because people were showing before and after and

583
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,640
Speaker 5: they think he got a nose job or something. If

584
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,360
Speaker 5: that actually happened, then I'm fading the Buccaneers.

585
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 1: The rumors around his disappearance have just increased in apps.

586
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:43,480
Speaker 1: I'm waiting for it to be that he went to

587
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 1: Mars with Elon Musky. Is just the increase that they

588
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:48,840
Speaker 1: have taken. It was first he's on the mass singer,

589
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:51,320
Speaker 1: then it was he's getting a divorce, which, by the way,

590
00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 1: pray that's not happening, because if it does, he's playing

591
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:57,159
Speaker 1: ten more seasons and gonna throw the first one hundred

592
00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 1: touchdown season. Pray that doesn't happen. I have no idea

593
00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 1: what it was, but anything that's out there, he is

594
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 1: purposely leaked until this one. There's no way it was

595
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 1: plastic surgery. Though no clue what it was, but there's

596
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 1: no way it was that.

597
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:12,560
Speaker 4: It looked a little different in that press conference the

598
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 4: other day. Anyway.

599
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:16,560
Speaker 5: I think the price on the Bucks their odds on

600
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:20,080
Speaker 5: favorites to win the division at minus two fifty. I'm

601
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 5: not sure what the bet MGM price is right now

602
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:24,440
Speaker 5: or if you look around town, but that's one price

603
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:27,120
Speaker 5: I saw last night and it's very consistent with the market.

604
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 5: So you can get the Saints at three to one.

605
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 5: Look at the weapons round, Jamis Winston again, Alvin Kamara

606
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:35,439
Speaker 5: is not going to get suspended, Michael Thomas is back,

607
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 5: Chris o'lobby, you got some depth at receiver. I think

608
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 5: the defense is still pretty damn good, and Dennis Allen

609
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:44,320
Speaker 5: is not going to be a huge step down you

610
00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:48,040
Speaker 5: would think from Sean Payton as head coach, and the

611
00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:50,760
Speaker 5: Saints have actually, I want to see I hate to

612
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:53,600
Speaker 5: use word dominated, but they have. They've dominated the Bucks

613
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:57,320
Speaker 5: in the regular season the last couple of years. So

614
00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 5: let's go with let's go with the second chroic side

615
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:03,600
Speaker 5: of the NFC South from Saints of three to one odds.

616
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 1: I would not be stunned if Jamis Winston ends up

617
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:08,960
Speaker 1: winning the MVP. I'm just saying I think he could

618
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 1: coast pass Player of the Year straight, a comeback Player

619
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 1: of the Year straight to it.

620
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:15,680
Speaker 2: That's interesting, I mean I do. I also like this call.

621
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 3: And the fact is, yeah, everything said about the Bucks

622
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:22,000
Speaker 3: is there, and the Saints they really have taken it

623
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 3: to the Bucks. It's it's some weird voodoo that they

624
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,960
Speaker 3: have going on. But with Marshaw Lattimore, he can erase

625
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:31,120
Speaker 3: Mike Evans on the outside, uh, and then you know,

626
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 3: they can bracket coverage on Chris Godwin on the inside.

627
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 3: They can get pressure with their defensive line, especially now

628
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 3: against the Bucks that have a wounded offensive line. So yeah,

629
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 3: like that defense, I think they can do enough to

630
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 3: shut down the Buccaneers offense, and then you know that

631
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:53,160
Speaker 3: offense with Jamis and then with Michael Thomas returning, you

632
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 3: know they I don't think they're going to be like

633
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 3: top five, but they could be top ten.

634
00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:00,840
Speaker 1: Right right, Honestly, you look at the weapons they have.

635
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:05,280
Speaker 1: Top five, I think it's a far ceiling. But Michael

636
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 1: Thomas coming back, if he's healthy, it's gonna be fun

637
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 1: to see him with a quarterback that can throw downfield.

638
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:12,479
Speaker 1: You've got Jarvis Landry coming back healthy. He's still got

639
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:15,560
Speaker 1: something in the attack in the tank. Alvin Kamara, like

640
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 1: you said, probably not getting suspended. I don't know how

641
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 1: you can beat someone up at four pm at dres

642
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 1: and not get suspended. But here we are and Chris

643
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 1: Olave bringing up the third receiver spot. It's gonna be

644
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 1: a talented unit.

645
00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:31,960
Speaker 4: That's kind of hypocritical of you, Tommy.

646
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 5: You've beaten up a lot of people in bars late

647
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 5: at nights and you're not suspended from this podcast.

648
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 1: So no comment, no comment. Those oases nights were never proven.

649
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 1: All right, guys, I'm gonna go for my third pick

650
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:47,959
Speaker 1: here with something a little bit higher up at thirty

651
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 1: three to one, I'm going into Matt's Awards bucket. Here,

652
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:52,960
Speaker 1: I think Mike Tomlin is the coach of the Year.

653
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 1: The Steelers are three to one to make the playoffs

654
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 1: this season, and I ask you, is Mitch Trubisky really

655
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 1: a downgrade from the corpse of Ben Roethlisberger and Kenny

656
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 1: Piketts apparently looking good enough that even if they make

657
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 1: the quarterback change, you've got a promising rookie and a

658
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 1: former MVP MVP winner. I think that there's a lot

659
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 1: they can be there, and this is going to be

660
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 1: a toughest coaching challenge. Yet this is definitely one of

661
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 1: the weaker teams that they've ever had, and yet they

662
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:20,560
Speaker 1: still made the playoffs last year, and I think have

663
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 1: improved from that team. If they make it to the

664
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 1: postseason again only three to one, all of a sudden,

665
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:29,560
Speaker 1: here Mike Tomlin has to be in that conversation as

666
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 1: one of the top three candidates to win Coach of

667
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 1: the Year. He's liked by the media, which can help you. Yes,

668
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 1: it's all gonna hinge on the quarterback play, but I

669
00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 1: think that we could absolutely get there, and at thirty

670
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 1: three to one, I see a very reasonable path to

671
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:45,960
Speaker 1: this happen humans.

672
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 2: Do you want to trash this taker? Do you want

673
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:48,160
Speaker 2: me to do it?

674
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,240
Speaker 5: I'm gonna let you do it, because I actually think

675
00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 5: the Steelers. I don't love the Steelers, but I think

676
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 5: are being a little underrated by some people because Trubisky

677
00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 5: is better than the perception.

678
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:00,760
Speaker 4: Let's put it that way. I thought Matt kind of.

679
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 5: Forced him to regress in Chicago, and I think Trubisky

680
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 5: can play well enough for the Steelers to win some games,

681
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 5: and if not, then the Kenny Pickett gets the call.

682
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 5: But still, Tomlin's never had a losing season. I'm not

683
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 5: going to go as far as touchdown Tommy is here

684
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:22,880
Speaker 5: with Mike Tomlin. But I do think some people are

685
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 5: slightly underrating the Steelers.

686
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 3: Okay, so I'm with humans and thinking that the Steelers

687
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 3: are underrated in the market. Look at their win total,

688
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:35,000
Speaker 3: odds to win various things. I'm with humans there. I

689
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 3: will say what this is. The coach of the year

690
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:41,960
Speaker 3: is a hard one to peg down, but normally it's

691
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,880
Speaker 3: a coach of a team that is massively underperformed and

692
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:48,480
Speaker 3: then sees a big bump in their win total year

693
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:51,360
Speaker 3: over year. And so I don't think because the Steelers

694
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 3: have overperformed in previous seasons. They don't have that low

695
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 3: floor to start from to give the big win total boost,

696
00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 3: and so I think that is going to hurt Tomlin

697
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 3: in Coach of the Year voting.

698
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:05,120
Speaker 1: I think the thing that's going to be able to

699
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 1: help him. On the opposite side is that the narratives

700
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 1: kind of pre built in of Tomlin's never lost before.

701
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 1: If he can make that happen with this team, he's

702
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 1: one of the best coaches of all time, and you

703
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:19,959
Speaker 1: start having those conversations, I think that'll help get us

704
00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:22,480
Speaker 1: a boost on the end. But you're definitely right. That

705
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:26,080
Speaker 1: is my worry there, because if someone like the Texans

706
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 1: can take off, Lovey Smith gets in the conversation, and

707
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:31,040
Speaker 1: you know that they also like giving it to a

708
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:35,080
Speaker 1: guy like Brian Dable, Sean McDermott would be very much

709
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:38,280
Speaker 1: in that conversation. If the Bills can live up to

710
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 1: the hype and finally bring a Super Bowl in, yes,

711
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 1: I know it's supposed to be regular season only, but

712
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 1: you know they take some of that into account. What's

713
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:47,040
Speaker 1: your next pick, though, Friedman?

714
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 3: All Right, so looking at a long shot here. DJ

715
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 3: Moore thirty five to one to lead the league in

716
00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:55,960
Speaker 3: receiving yards. Only one wide receiver over the past three

717
00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 3: years has finished top ten in receiving yards each season,

718
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 3: and that's Dj Moore. Like Nadavonte, Cooper, Cup, Stefan Diggs, Tyreek,

719
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 3: only DJ Moore, and he's toiled in obscurity and been

720
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 3: mired in mediocrity for years with the Panthers. But as

721
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 3: sad as this is to say, he now has the

722
00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:15,840
Speaker 3: best quarterback of his career in Baker Mayfield. The Panthers

723
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:18,319
Speaker 3: are going to need to throw the ball consistently to

724
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 3: try to keep up with opponents. And more, is still

725
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:22,880
Speaker 3: just twenty five years old, so he's in the ascension

726
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:25,399
Speaker 3: phase of his career. As good as he has been,

727
00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:29,480
Speaker 3: he could be even better given his first round draft capital,

728
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 3: the fact that he's versatile. He can play on the

729
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:35,560
Speaker 3: perimeter and in the slot, and he's got great athleticism,

730
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:38,880
Speaker 3: strong speed, and agility for a guy who's two hundred

731
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:42,360
Speaker 3: and ten pounds, So I think more within his career

732
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:45,400
Speaker 3: he has a fifteen hundred yard season in him and

733
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 3: this could be the year that we get it.

734
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:50,720
Speaker 1: I love this. My hot take is a Baker Mayfield

735
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 1: actually pretty good in the Browns were wrong to get

736
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:56,640
Speaker 1: rid of him. For Watson, I think you're completely right.

737
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:58,400
Speaker 1: I think he's in a great setup here and I

738
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 1: like thirty five to one. You're only going to be

739
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:03,920
Speaker 1: so wrong. Want to track all of your wagers in

740
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 1: one place, check out the Betting prospicktracker at bettingpros dot

741
00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 1: com slash picktracking. It sinks up with your sportsbooks to

742
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 1: tally which picks hit and which miss and gives you

743
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 1: a live look at what the public is doing. So

744
00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 1: you can use real time tracking to determine which place

745
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:21,160
Speaker 1: to make and which to fade. Get on the leaderboard

746
00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:23,320
Speaker 1: and quickly become a sharp by using the free advice

747
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 1: we have to offer at bettingpros dot com slash picktracking.

748
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 5: All right, I'm gonna go with a a lounge shot

749
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 5: division winner here. I'm gonna go with the Raiders at

750
00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:36,839
Speaker 5: about six or seven to one to win the AFC West.

751
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 5: I wear my Raiders shirt for the podcast today, just

752
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:41,719
Speaker 5: for this pick now. And I'm not being a homer here.

753
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:44,919
Speaker 5: I feel like there's very little separation between the four

754
00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 5: teams and the AFC West now, and I'm not saying

755
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:49,239
Speaker 5: the Chiefs are going to take a big step back

756
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:51,920
Speaker 5: because they traded Tyreek Hill. I actually like a lot

757
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,280
Speaker 5: of the moves the Chiefs have made in the draft

758
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 5: and in the offseason in general, so I don't think

759
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:59,440
Speaker 5: they're going to be much worse at all. But the

760
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:02,400
Speaker 5: Broncos I think are being slightly overrated because of Russell

761
00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:03,360
Speaker 5: Wilson's impact.

762
00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:08,120
Speaker 4: He's off a career worst year, to be honest about it.

763
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:11,879
Speaker 4: The Chargers seem to be underachievers. I love Justin Herbert,

764
00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 4: couldn't be a bigger fan of Herbert, but the Chargers

765
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 4: already have a JC Jackson injury.

766
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:19,719
Speaker 5: They seem to be a snake bit team. They find

767
00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 5: ways to lose close games. They found a way to

768
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:25,760
Speaker 5: lose to the Raiders in Week eighteen when they needed

769
00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:29,799
Speaker 5: to win or tie to make the playoffs. I'm gonna

770
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:32,000
Speaker 5: go with the Raiders here because I love the offseason

771
00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:34,360
Speaker 5: moves of DeVante Adams. It's pretty obvious they had one

772
00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 5: hundred and twenty three catches in Green Bay last year,

773
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:40,520
Speaker 5: but Derek Carr ranked fifth in the league. He had

774
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:42,880
Speaker 5: forty eight hundred and four passing yards last year, but

775
00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:45,160
Speaker 5: the Raiders were only eighteenth in the league in scoring.

776
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:47,360
Speaker 5: Twenty two points a game. I think you're going to

777
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 5: see the Raiders make a big leap to be a

778
00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 5: top five scoring offense, and they might challenge to be

779
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:54,320
Speaker 5: the highest scoring offense in the NFL.

780
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:56,280
Speaker 4: With Josh McDaniels calling the plays.

781
00:36:56,280 --> 00:37:00,960
Speaker 5: You're talking about DeVante Adams, Hunter, Renfro, Darren Waller, all

782
00:37:01,000 --> 00:37:03,919
Speaker 5: the weapons in that offense. This is Derek Carr's time.

783
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 5: It's kind an now or never. You're going to step

784
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 5: up and win a playoff game or it's not going

785
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 5: to happen. Cars fifty seven and seventy and one hundred

786
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 5: and twenty seven starts in his career. Last year's lost

787
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:17,319
Speaker 5: to the Bengals in January. It was actually the only

788
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:20,959
Speaker 5: playoff game car has started since he was the second

789
00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:24,080
Speaker 5: round pick in twenty fourteen. I think this is his year.

790
00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:26,600
Speaker 5: I love the Chandler Jones addition to the defense, you

791
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 5: got Max Crosby and Chandler Jones as edge rushers.

792
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:31,560
Speaker 4: I watch out for the Raiders.

793
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:33,040
Speaker 5: I'm not saying they are going to win it, but

794
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:35,000
Speaker 5: I think there's a little value at about seven to

795
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:37,120
Speaker 5: one odds to win the AFC West.

796
00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:39,759
Speaker 1: I know Freedoman is going to call us Homers for this,

797
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:42,560
Speaker 1: but I'm right there with you. I think the Broncos

798
00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:44,560
Speaker 1: are going to be worse than people expect because, like

799
00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 1: you said, Russell Wilson isn't on the assent in his career,

800
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:49,800
Speaker 1: and I'd argue he's actually going to a worse situation.

801
00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:52,360
Speaker 1: Courtland Sutton and Jerry Judy are not better than Tyler

802
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:55,160
Speaker 1: Lockett and DK Metcalf. The offensive line will be a

803
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 1: bit better there. And here's a wild stat that I

804
00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:00,680
Speaker 1: learned just today. Justin Herbert had this same amount of

805
00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:03,960
Speaker 1: passes with over twenty yards in the air last season

806
00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:07,319
Speaker 1: as Ben Roethlisberger. He does not push the ball down

807
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 1: the field at all. I was a little worried about

808
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:11,759
Speaker 1: the Chiefs going into the season. I thought they'd take

809
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:14,680
Speaker 1: a big step back with Tyreek seeing what the starters

810
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:17,520
Speaker 1: did in preseason. Not as worried. I think they'll still

811
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 1: be right up there. But I completely think you're right.

812
00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 1: At plus six fifty, the Raiders have more than a

813
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:23,240
Speaker 1: shout to win this division.

814
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:26,520
Speaker 3: I will say no, no, I will say I'm a

815
00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 3: little skeptical on this because I do Russell Wilson. I

816
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:32,359
Speaker 3: agree with you, like I think he's a little overrated

817
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:35,960
Speaker 3: in that that Broncos offense. But I still think that

818
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:39,960
Speaker 3: the Raiders are fourth in this division deservedly so. But

819
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:43,319
Speaker 3: I will say the thing that does give me pause is,

820
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:47,400
Speaker 3: as you mentioned, the addition of Tyler Chandler to that defense,

821
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 3: and so if their defensive line can be really strong,

822
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:53,120
Speaker 3: that will that will help compensate for what I think

823
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:56,480
Speaker 3: is real weakness in the secondary. And then on the

824
00:38:56,520 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 3: offensive side of the ball, they do have top three,

825
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:03,799
Speaker 3: maybe the number one overall pass catching unit when you're

826
00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 3: taking Darren Waller next to the wide receivers that they have.

827
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 3: They don't have a good number three receiver, but they

828
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 3: have maybe the best one to two combination of wide

829
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,520
Speaker 3: receivers in the league with Deavante Adams and Hunter renfro

830
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:17,719
Speaker 3: and then Darren Waller as a guy who can move

831
00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:21,720
Speaker 3: across the formation super talented like that can help boost

832
00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 3: Derek Carr's upside within this offense. So like I can

833
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 3: see the best case scenario for it.

834
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:29,000
Speaker 4: You know why I just recognized.

835
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 5: So all the NFL quarterbacks now have their own logos

836
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:37,239
Speaker 5: like TB Tom Brady, Josh Allen's got that, JA think

837
00:39:37,320 --> 00:39:40,040
Speaker 5: Friedman's goes on on that logo he looked at.

838
00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:41,520
Speaker 4: He's got the Friedman hat on today.

839
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 1: That's right, absolutely, guys, my long shot pick here forty

840
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:53,719
Speaker 1: to one the Texans to win the AFC Sex Wow. Okay,

841
00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 1: hear me out, hear me out. First off, it's forty

842
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 1: to one. You can find that number, and then at

843
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:04,279
Speaker 1: other shops around town it's down to like twenty five

844
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 1: or twenty. I think that there's some value here because

845
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 1: I think Davis Mills can be a legit NFL quarterback.

846
00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:12,719
Speaker 1: I think Lovey Smith has the experience. This team needs

847
00:40:12,719 --> 00:40:15,759
Speaker 1: a head coach, and this roster isn't actually that of

848
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:18,640
Speaker 1: a team that has blown everything up and is rebuilding.

849
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:21,400
Speaker 1: They've got one of the league's oldest rosters. It's a

850
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:23,640
Speaker 1: bunch of veterans who know how to play football. You've

851
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 1: still got a guy like Brandon Cooks. Damian Pierce is

852
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 1: everybody's new favorite running back. And the thing that makes

853
00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 1: me actually like this bet because I know this isn't

854
00:40:32,640 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 1: the most talented team. I love their win total over

855
00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:38,319
Speaker 1: we talked about that on the last show, But look

856
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:41,160
Speaker 1: at the division. Every team has question marks here. Can

857
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:44,120
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan still throw the football and can he stay healthy?

858
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 1: For the whole season. Is Dereck Henry healthy? How long

859
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:49,919
Speaker 1: until Malik Willis is starting for the Titans? And what's

860
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 1: that team going to look like? Jacksonville? Why do you

861
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:55,040
Speaker 1: still exist and haven't moved to London and joined a

862
00:40:55,040 --> 00:41:00,279
Speaker 1: different league yet you're a Dereck Henry injury away, Matt

863
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:04,719
Speaker 1: Ryan injury away from this division being absolutely wide open

864
00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:06,279
Speaker 1: to a team like the Texans winning it with just

865
00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:09,000
Speaker 1: nine wins. I think there's value in this spot. I

866
00:41:09,040 --> 00:41:11,879
Speaker 1: think it's a pretty live bet and it could get

867
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 1: a hole of a lot more interesting if things shake

868
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:16,279
Speaker 1: out in the middle of the season and a team

869
00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 1: like the Colts starts to fade. I think it could

870
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:21,640
Speaker 1: be interesting. Is it going to happen? Probably not, But

871
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:23,799
Speaker 1: at forty to one, I'm comfortable with a long shot there.

872
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:26,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's the right division.

873
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:28,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think Friedman.

874
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:30,600
Speaker 5: I think Viola was a little fired up about the

875
00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 5: Texans going three to zero in the preseason.

876
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:34,160
Speaker 4: That pushed him over the edge.

877
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:37,480
Speaker 1: I was looking at this team. I was looking at

878
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:39,960
Speaker 1: this team before the preseason. I liked them over their

879
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:41,640
Speaker 1: four and a half win total a lot, and once

880
00:41:41,680 --> 00:41:43,880
Speaker 1: I started looking at that, I was like, hang on,

881
00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:46,200
Speaker 1: a second here. This number is just a little insane

882
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 1: for the worst division in football.

883
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:50,200
Speaker 2: I could see them being a feisty team.

884
00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 3: I doubt that they like feisty like last year's Lions

885
00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:57,640
Speaker 3: a little bit where they maybe get a lot of

886
00:41:57,680 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 3: covers but they lose some close games. I could see

887
00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 3: them being that kind of team this year.

888
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:07,359
Speaker 1: Agreed, all right, I want to get some Super Bowl

889
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:09,960
Speaker 1: predictions here for you guys. You can factor in odds.

890
00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:12,400
Speaker 1: You could just say who's gonna win it? But where

891
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:14,840
Speaker 1: who is hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at the end of

892
00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:17,000
Speaker 1: the year. Humans, I'll give you the floor.

893
00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:20,080
Speaker 5: I want to go with a bit of a surprise

894
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:22,400
Speaker 5: pick here because I think it's too easy to just

895
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:25,080
Speaker 5: say the Bills and whoever Bills and Buccaneers.

896
00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:26,279
Speaker 4: I'm not going to go that way.

897
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:29,719
Speaker 5: I'm gonna go Colts at twenty five to one, and

898
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:31,439
Speaker 5: maybe Matt Ryan can.

899
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:32,160
Speaker 4: Make it three in a row.

900
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:34,560
Speaker 5: We had Tom Brady go from New England to Tampa

901
00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 5: Bay and win his first year ed Matthew Stafford go

902
00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 5: from Detroit to the Rams winning his first year.

903
00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:40,320
Speaker 4: In a new offense.

904
00:42:40,360 --> 00:42:42,960
Speaker 5: I think some people might say, hey, Russell Wilson could

905
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:44,520
Speaker 5: do that this year, I'm gonna go with Matt Ryan.

906
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:47,040
Speaker 5: I think the Colts are that close, and they made

907
00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:48,920
Speaker 5: a couple of big additions on defense when they got

908
00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:53,080
Speaker 5: cornerbacks Stefan Gilmour, defensive Endiannick and got away from the Raiders.

909
00:42:53,719 --> 00:42:55,240
Speaker 4: I really like this Colts defense.

910
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:59,000
Speaker 5: I think it's organization's success starts at the top, and

911
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:01,640
Speaker 5: Chris Ballard and Frank Reich have kind of built this

912
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 5: thing the right way. I said the Eagles have a

913
00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:07,759
Speaker 5: top five offensive line. Freeman said it might be number one.

914
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 5: I think the Colts still have a friends top five

915
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:13,200
Speaker 5: offensive line. And you got Jonathan Taylor, the league's leading rusher.

916
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:17,000
Speaker 5: Guy had eighteen hundred yards twenty total tds. I'm a

917
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:19,600
Speaker 5: little bit concerned that you don't have that top end,

918
00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:23,439
Speaker 5: you know, elite number one wide receiver. But I think

919
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 5: Matt Ryan can, actually, I'm going to say, avoid making

920
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 5: mistakes that Carson Wentz made to kind of put the

921
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:32,520
Speaker 5: Colts in a hole last year. If you think about

922
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:34,600
Speaker 5: the home game against the Titans, the home game against

923
00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:36,480
Speaker 5: the Raiders late in the year, the road game against

924
00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 5: the Jaguars in Week eighteen, and those maybe the situations

925
00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:42,799
Speaker 5: Matt Ryan can make the difference in a Colts team

926
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:45,200
Speaker 5: that I think is ready to win the AFC but

927
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 5: hasn't had the right quarterback the last couple of years.

928
00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 5: The Colts weren't that far away when they had Philip

929
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:52,600
Speaker 5: Rivers actually a couple of years ago. But maybe that's

930
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:55,319
Speaker 5: a stretch. Maybe Matt Ryan doesn't have it left. I

931
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:57,200
Speaker 5: like the Ravens and the Colts kind of in that

932
00:43:57,239 --> 00:44:02,680
Speaker 5: same price range in the AFC. And it's so competitive, man,

933
00:44:02,719 --> 00:44:04,760
Speaker 5: it's hard to say. I think the AFC is stacked

934
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:07,640
Speaker 5: with like eight really good teams, and I don't want

935
00:44:07,640 --> 00:44:09,840
Speaker 5: to bet the favorite that's six to one odds.

936
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:12,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's there's too much there. I think my problem

937
00:44:12,840 --> 00:44:18,680
Speaker 1: with picking Buffalo it's Buffalo, and something will go wrong

938
00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:22,240
Speaker 1: this franchise. Talk about tortured franchises. I've watched the Jets

939
00:44:22,239 --> 00:44:25,160
Speaker 1: be terrible forever and the Bills still make me go, well,

940
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:27,839
Speaker 1: at least we haven't had that kind of heartbreak. I

941
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:29,520
Speaker 1: just can't trust him. What about you, freedman?

942
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:33,959
Speaker 3: So my Chalky answer would be not that I would

943
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:35,560
Speaker 3: bet it, but if I just had to shoot from

944
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:37,759
Speaker 3: the hip and say, you know, regardless of odds, the

945
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:40,840
Speaker 3: Packers you know, I know they lost DeVonta Adams, also

946
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:45,080
Speaker 3: lost Marquez Valdez, Scantleen Equanamia Saint Brown too, if that

947
00:44:45,200 --> 00:44:47,920
Speaker 3: counts for anything. But so I totally rebuilt the wide

948
00:44:47,920 --> 00:44:50,880
Speaker 3: receiver room with the exception of Allen Lazard. But they

949
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:53,560
Speaker 3: still have Aaron Rodgers there still. You know, in my opinion,

950
00:44:53,600 --> 00:44:56,400
Speaker 3: a top five quarterback, probably still a top three quarterback.

951
00:44:56,480 --> 00:44:58,320
Speaker 3: I think he's going to be fine with the receivers

952
00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 3: that they have there, and that defense I think is

953
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:04,240
Speaker 3: very solid. They have a real home field advantage in Lambeau,

954
00:45:04,320 --> 00:45:07,560
Speaker 3: like one of the few places I think still has

955
00:45:07,640 --> 00:45:11,040
Speaker 3: a home field advantage in today's NFL. So if I'm

956
00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:13,319
Speaker 3: being chalky, I'd say the Packers. If I'm looking at

957
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 3: the odds, I'll go with two teams that we've talked

958
00:45:15,719 --> 00:45:19,359
Speaker 3: about already run based offenses, the San Francisco forty nine

959
00:45:19,440 --> 00:45:23,480
Speaker 3: ers in the NFC, and Matt mentioned them, the Ravens

960
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:27,200
Speaker 3: and the AFC. Those are the two teams forty nine

961
00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 3: Ers sixteen to one and Ravens twenty to one. At

962
00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:32,160
Speaker 3: DraftKings right now, those are the two teams that I

963
00:45:32,160 --> 00:45:32,839
Speaker 3: would look at.

964
00:45:34,160 --> 00:45:36,319
Speaker 1: I'm going to take one in the same Division. As

965
00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:39,719
Speaker 1: you here again, I hope the Bills win it. I

966
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:42,600
Speaker 1: think that's the Chalky thing, and they could very well

967
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:45,759
Speaker 1: do it. This is their year. But I'm go with

968
00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:47,480
Speaker 1: the Bengals at twenty to one if I have to

969
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:49,919
Speaker 1: make a bet based on the odds here. I don't

970
00:45:49,920 --> 00:45:52,200
Speaker 1: think this team is going to regress that hard. I

971
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:56,719
Speaker 1: last season, I was already thinking this coming season was

972
00:45:56,760 --> 00:45:58,640
Speaker 1: going to be the one where this team took that

973
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:01,319
Speaker 1: step and became contender. And then they just had to

974
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:03,120
Speaker 1: go and go off on a crazy run and make

975
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:06,240
Speaker 1: it all the way to the final game a season early.

976
00:46:06,600 --> 00:46:09,840
Speaker 1: But they've revamped the offensive line, which was the biggest

977
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:12,920
Speaker 1: problem for that team. You've got year three Joe Burrow.

978
00:46:13,000 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 2: Now, am I right?

979
00:46:14,280 --> 00:46:15,160
Speaker 1: Is it year three or year four?

980
00:46:15,320 --> 00:46:15,600
Speaker 2: Year three?

981
00:46:15,680 --> 00:46:16,200
Speaker 4: Year three?

982
00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:19,000
Speaker 1: You got year three Joe Burrow. Jamar Chase is another

983
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:22,279
Speaker 1: year older in this league, and you everything about that

984
00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:25,319
Speaker 1: offense is fantastic. And I think that defense, yes, they

985
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:27,319
Speaker 1: they're going to have to be able to play to

986
00:46:27,360 --> 00:46:29,239
Speaker 1: the level that they played through that playoff stretch, and

987
00:46:29,280 --> 00:46:31,680
Speaker 1: that could be the thing that sinks you. But I

988
00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:34,440
Speaker 1: think that the offense is going to be efficient enough

989
00:46:34,520 --> 00:46:37,640
Speaker 1: moving forward that they can kind of compensate for the

990
00:46:37,680 --> 00:46:40,840
Speaker 1: defense regressing a little bit back towards the mean there.

991
00:46:41,920 --> 00:46:43,799
Speaker 1: I think this team has done everything they need to

992
00:46:43,800 --> 00:46:45,719
Speaker 1: improve during the offseason to try and get back to

993
00:46:45,719 --> 00:46:48,279
Speaker 1: the game, and at twenty to one, I already know

994
00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:50,719
Speaker 1: that they can get there. Let's see if they can't

995
00:46:50,719 --> 00:46:53,439
Speaker 1: do it again in this time winning all.

996
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:55,880
Speaker 2: Right, I could see it. I mean, let's you know.

997
00:46:55,920 --> 00:46:58,000
Speaker 3: The good news for me is that if that works out,

998
00:46:58,040 --> 00:47:01,400
Speaker 3: then maybe Jamar Chase actually does win Offensive Player of

999
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:04,040
Speaker 3: the Year, So that would be a win for both

1000
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:04,399
Speaker 3: of us.

1001
00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:07,360
Speaker 1: That would be a big win here. But right now, Matt,

1002
00:47:07,400 --> 00:47:10,200
Speaker 1: thank you, Matts, thank you so much for joining us

1003
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:13,880
Speaker 1: here today. Matt humans from Vson. Where can people find

1004
00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:15,840
Speaker 1: you and all the great work they're doing around the internet.

1005
00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:20,680
Speaker 5: You can find me at VSN dot com. Tommy and

1006
00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:23,160
Speaker 5: great to be on with you guys today, and good

1007
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:24,000
Speaker 5: luck this season.

1008
00:47:24,680 --> 00:47:28,000
Speaker 1: An absolute pleasure. Good luck to everybody. We'll be back

1009
00:47:28,080 --> 00:47:31,960
Speaker 1: next week with our Week one breakdown. Guys. It's officially

1010
00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:35,040
Speaker 1: kickoff time. Best of luck to everyone and have a

1011
00:47:35,080 --> 00:47:35,880
Speaker 1: great season.

1012
00:47:36,280 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 4: You bet.