1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:07,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:11,160 Speaker 2: President Trump is taking this economy in a different direction. 3 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:14,600 Speaker 2: He ran on that, he promised it, and now he's delivering. 4 00:00:15,760 --> 00:00:19,079 Speaker 3: We're in the process of imposing reciprocal tariffs. 5 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 4: This is going to hurt our economy before we get 6 00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:24,040 Speaker 4: to any possible retaliation. 7 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 2: Thank you for being such a pro business and pronovation president. 8 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 3: We're very excited to see what you're doing to make 9 00:00:30,560 --> 00:00:33,240 Speaker 3: all of our companies in our entire country so successful. 10 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:35,320 Speaker 5: The big promise was that he was going to bring 11 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 5: down prices and make America affordable again, and everything he's 12 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:40,959 Speaker 5: done is the opposite of that. 13 00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:42,840 Speaker 4: We have the greatest economy in history. 14 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 6: This economy, in my opinion, is going to blow it away. 15 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:47,639 Speaker 6: That's what this one. 16 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 4: It's going to be a very interesting demos. 17 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:06,919 Speaker 7: I'm Stephanie Flanders, head of Government and Economics at Bloomberg, 18 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 7: and welcome to trump Panomics from Davos, the podcast that 19 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 7: looks at the economic world of Donald Trump. This week 20 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:17,560 Speaker 7: from the top of a mountain, how he's already shaped 21 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:20,520 Speaker 7: the global economy for the movers and shakers, descending on 22 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 7: Switzerland for the World Economic Forum this week, and what 23 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:27,319 Speaker 7: on Earth is going to happen next. We're recording this 24 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:31,160 Speaker 7: on Monday, nineteenth of January at Bloomberg House, close to 25 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:34,399 Speaker 7: the main conference center in Davos, and I have some 26 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:38,600 Speaker 7: of Bloomberg's wisest with me to discuss the next chapter 27 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:41,679 Speaker 7: of trump Panomics, what the President might have in store 28 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 7: for Davos men and women when he speaks here later 29 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:50,720 Speaker 7: this week. First, welcome to the stage, Anne Marie Horden, 30 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 7: who is familiar to many as a co host and 31 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 7: roving DC correspondent for Bloomberg Surveillance on Bloomberg Television. Frida Nataraja, 32 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 7: who is bloomberg Uses chief Wall Street correspondent, and our 33 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:11,920 Speaker 7: editor in chief John Micklquake. I was thinking on the 34 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,079 Speaker 7: way here, there is a sense of kind of deja 35 00:02:14,200 --> 00:02:18,720 Speaker 7: vous because exactly, you know, turn the clock back twelve months, John, 36 00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:21,360 Speaker 7: you and I were here, maybe some of the audience 37 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 7: were here. But if you think of what has happened 38 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:26,240 Speaker 7: in the last twelve months, I can't think of much 39 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 7: else that has stayed the same in this first year 40 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 7: of Donald Trump's second term. We will have noticed that 41 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 7: quite a lot. In the World Economic Forum agenda, the 42 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 7: names of the official sessions changed quite a lot, even 43 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 7: less about climate change, diversity inclusion, and I've noticed a 44 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 7: lot of dialogue and honest conversations. That seems to be 45 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 7: the sort of title of most of the sessions. John 46 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 7: Since President Trump confirmed relatively early that he was going 47 00:02:56,360 --> 00:02:58,800 Speaker 7: to come, we have I think a record number of 48 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 7: world leaders who've all run, USh to rush to come 49 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 7: to quite a few of them want to have an 50 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:06,920 Speaker 7: honest conversation about Greenland. This crisis over Greenland is happening 51 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 7: in real time. But could it possibly be resolved this week? 52 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:12,800 Speaker 7: Or given the mood music we're hearing, could this be 53 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 7: the week that Europe decides with Donald Trump. It's not 54 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:17,560 Speaker 7: really the art of the deal, it's the art of 55 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 7: fighting back. 56 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:20,359 Speaker 3: I suppose well two things. It is a kind of 57 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:25,360 Speaker 3: monarchical administration. So the king comes somewhere, everyone else immediately 58 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:28,080 Speaker 3: shuttles across. It's very similar to the kind of sixteenth 59 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 3: century or something, when the or Louis the fourteenth decides 60 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:33,160 Speaker 3: to go somewhere and everyone comes up. It was a 61 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:36,200 Speaker 3: bit later than the sixteenth century, but the same idea. 62 00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 3: I think in terms of whether Europe fights yeah, I 63 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 3: think this is I think this is the one thing 64 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 3: which even the somewhat jelly spined leaders of Europe they 65 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 3: really can't take someone just grabbing part of their territory. 66 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 3: And I think you've already seen in people like kirstarmer 67 00:03:56,280 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 3: Manuel Macrol Mertz a bit. You've seen people saying, look, 68 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 3: this really isn't going to work. The division is coming 69 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:06,960 Speaker 3: about what exactly the response would be with this issue, 70 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:09,760 Speaker 3: about whether they go to tariffs or whether. 71 00:04:09,560 --> 00:04:10,680 Speaker 6: They look for other means. 72 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 3: And I think the reason why is because this is 73 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:14,960 Speaker 3: such a strange thing. 74 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 6: It's not really. 75 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 3: Possible to declare that this is within the normal bounds 76 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:22,159 Speaker 3: of national security. It's just simply saying I want to 77 00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 3: increase the land area of the United States of America, 78 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:29,479 Speaker 3: because most of the things to do with security you 79 00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:32,599 Speaker 3: can cover through bases and things like that. So I 80 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 3: think even for the Europeans, and let's be really honest, 81 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:41,600 Speaker 3: no one has ever lost money betting against the Europeans caving. 82 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:45,479 Speaker 3: Then actually, in this particular case, I think this is 83 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:47,359 Speaker 3: such an outrageous thing they will do something. And the 84 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:49,359 Speaker 3: fact he's come out this morning with the thing about 85 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 3: which we reported first about being annoyed with the Norwegians 86 00:04:53,320 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 3: for not giving him the Nobel Peace Prize. That adds 87 00:04:56,800 --> 00:04:58,719 Speaker 3: to the general sense of it being a sort of 88 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 3: monarchical decision, and I think there's a certain point at 89 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:04,080 Speaker 3: which other democracies can't really live with that. 90 00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 7: Prime Minister Kirstarmer at a press conference today on Monday, 91 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 7: and you've got the sense that he just had felt 92 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:13,440 Speaker 7: he had to respond because of the sheer weight of 93 00:05:13,480 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 7: public opinion over the weekend, and so. 94 00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:22,520 Speaker 8: Any decision about the future status of Greenland belongs to 95 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:27,039 Speaker 8: the people of Greenland and the Kingdom of Denmark alone. 96 00:05:27,320 --> 00:05:30,920 Speaker 8: That right is fundamental and we support it. 97 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 6: You have to feel amazingly sorry for Kirstarmer. 98 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 3: Not that we do that often, but Kirstarmer is sort 99 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:40,320 Speaker 3: of four or five days ago, it wasn't looking too bad. 100 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 3: He thought the one part of his administration that had 101 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 3: gone reasonably well was foreign policy, and he had got 102 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:49,480 Speaker 3: a special deal with America, and he got a sort of. 103 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 6: Deal with Europe. 104 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:53,840 Speaker 3: And then to get exposed on something where even he 105 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:57,359 Speaker 3: will find it difficult to back down, I think that 106 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 3: makes it very very hard. And taking territory, that is 107 00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:07,360 Speaker 3: the whole basis of why the West has rallied behind Ukraine. 108 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:09,760 Speaker 3: It's very different. It's very difficult when one of your 109 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:10,640 Speaker 3: allies does it. 110 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 7: I wanted to get onto the sort of corporate perspective 111 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:16,160 Speaker 7: on this, but just one more on Greenland. I mean, 112 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:19,520 Speaker 7: you're right that Europe doesn't actually have doesn't have a 113 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:22,280 Speaker 7: reputation of having been really hard nosed on these things. 114 00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 7: And the striking thing about the year since we were 115 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:28,799 Speaker 7: last here was how much of Europe caved to pretty 116 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:32,159 Speaker 7: much everything. There was no retaliation on tariffs. Now they're 117 00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:35,840 Speaker 7: talking about red lines, but they're also only talking about 118 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:40,360 Speaker 7: sending fifteen individuals to Greenland as opposed to fifteen. 119 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:42,600 Speaker 3: I think Trump said, surely you know the French as 120 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:45,200 Speaker 3: sent fifteen people, and you thought they meant fifteen thousand, 121 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 3: and then it turns out to be fifteen people. 122 00:06:47,279 --> 00:06:51,960 Speaker 7: I mean, realistically, how can there be a muscular responsible. 123 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:54,359 Speaker 3: There's division on that, and there is obviously people like 124 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:58,279 Speaker 3: Aubermen in Hungary. You can make things difficult, But I 125 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 3: think straightforwardly Trump's biggest problems at the moment, as many 126 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:04,719 Speaker 3: people would bet he's going to lose the midterms, what's 127 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:05,839 Speaker 3: the biggest issue there? 128 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:09,160 Speaker 6: Affordability, a full on tariff war. 129 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,400 Speaker 3: I think the Europeans, at least in this case have 130 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:15,480 Speaker 3: the ability to call that in they've actually prepared or 131 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 3: the ammunition before. Again a jelly spined group of people 132 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 3: in this particular case, they actually have a weapon prepared 133 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 3: for themselves, so they don't have to go through all 134 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 3: that for varication. 135 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:29,960 Speaker 7: Well, a Marie, we've mentioned the domestic front and affordability, 136 00:07:30,000 --> 00:07:32,200 Speaker 7: which is a great buzzword in the US for this 137 00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 7: year as we go to the midterms. The President, to 138 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:39,000 Speaker 7: most people here on the world stage, seems to be 139 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 7: at the peak of his powers, and he's extended those 140 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:46,040 Speaker 7: powers domestically enormously. But we have had in the last 141 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:49,800 Speaker 7: few weeks, as sort of sign of some pushback, you know, 142 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 7: behind the scenes, a lot of the spending bills, spending 143 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:55,960 Speaker 7: cuts that the administration was hoping to see in domestic 144 00:07:56,000 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 7: programs have all been sort of wound back. In Congress. 145 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 7: We've had a pretty vigorous response, even from some senior 146 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 7: Republicans to the further attack on the federal reserve. We 147 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:10,880 Speaker 7: may even get a decision this week, even before people 148 00:08:10,960 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 7: are listening to this show, from the Supreme Court saying 149 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 7: that he can't actually use tariffs for anything he wants. 150 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 7: I mean, is this possibly the high watermark for trumponomics 151 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 7: domestically anyway. 152 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 4: Including maybe these tariffs he's talking about for the Europeans. 153 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:27,640 Speaker 4: I think for Trump right now in the whole White House, 154 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:31,520 Speaker 4: they are just laser focused. Their north star is Tuesday, 155 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:35,200 Speaker 4: November third, for the midterm elections. To John's point, conventional wisdom, 156 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 4: they're likely going to lose the House. 157 00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:37,920 Speaker 2: This is last opportunity. 158 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 4: And Poles continuously show that Trump ran on affordability. He 159 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:45,720 Speaker 4: ran on inflation being too high, and there's still price 160 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:48,920 Speaker 4: levels that are hurting everyday Americans, especially things like groceries, 161 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:51,720 Speaker 4: even though things like gasoline have come down. So in 162 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:55,320 Speaker 4: his speech here he will have the domestic audience in mind. 163 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 4: They've already teased out a number of issues captain credit 164 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:01,480 Speaker 4: card fees, you know, shree'z go to talk about housing, 165 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 4: how to get more Americans on the housing market, going 166 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:09,120 Speaker 4: after defense contractors about their dividends and buybacks, given the 167 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:11,840 Speaker 4: fact that the United States has a trillion dollar defense 168 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 4: budget and they are obviously privy to that. 169 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:16,720 Speaker 2: So he's really going towards. 170 00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 4: These populist policies that you would hear from the likes 171 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:22,720 Speaker 4: of Senator Elizabeth Warren or Senator Bernie Sanders, who tried 172 00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:26,600 Speaker 4: to attract Americans to stick with him ahead of the 173 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 4: midterm elections. I think his biggest issue in Davos is 174 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 4: does that message get completely muddled by what many in 175 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 4: Washington would call a distraction for something like Greenland. 176 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:40,680 Speaker 7: He lives through how things will be seen on TV, 177 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:43,560 Speaker 7: and here you have a massive global stage. But to 178 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 7: your point, he's also going to be speaking to a 179 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:49,840 Speaker 7: domestic audience. How is he going to balance those two things, 180 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:51,680 Speaker 7: especially when a lot of people here will be looking 181 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:54,319 Speaker 7: at the US economy and saying, whatever we say, it's 182 00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 7: performing better than most of ours. 183 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 4: US economy is doing well, GDP's doing well. 184 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 2: Stock markets at a record high. 185 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:04,600 Speaker 4: Even though there have been concerns about fendependence, the market 186 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 4: has shrugged it off. I mean, the Bard market only 187 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:09,560 Speaker 4: moved when Trump said on TV to Kevin has said, 188 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:11,120 Speaker 4: I think they're going to maybe keep you where you are, 189 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 4: so they're potentially pricing in someone a little bit more credible, 190 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:17,680 Speaker 4: or someone like a more hawkish Kevin Walsh. I think 191 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:20,360 Speaker 4: Trump's main message is going to be talking to what 192 00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:22,720 Speaker 4: he would call the global elite and how something like 193 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:25,839 Speaker 4: the World Economic Forum has some of the smartest, most 194 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:28,160 Speaker 4: elitist people in the world, but it hasn't delivered for 195 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 4: everyday people. To your point earlier, you see the different 196 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 4: names on the panels. It's not about diversity, equity, inclusion, 197 00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:38,920 Speaker 4: and climate. It's actually about the basics what I think 198 00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 4: a lot of conservatives in America would say the World 199 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:43,839 Speaker 4: Economic Forum has strayed away from. I'm told the speech 200 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:45,640 Speaker 4: is still being written and maybe by the time he 201 00:10:45,679 --> 00:10:49,120 Speaker 4: gives it's written a few more times and lots of tweaks, see. 202 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:49,640 Speaker 2: What they will take. 203 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:50,160 Speaker 7: He's working. 204 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 4: Yeah, he likes to weave, so he definitely will go 205 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 4: off script. 206 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 2: I'm sure he'll call out individuals. You know, I've traveled 207 00:10:56,240 --> 00:10:56,960 Speaker 2: with him now a lot. 208 00:10:57,120 --> 00:10:59,920 Speaker 4: I'm sure if he sees Jensen Wong, he'll immediately say 209 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:02,680 Speaker 4: Jensen came to support me. So you definitely will go 210 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:06,720 Speaker 4: off script where sometimes you get more interesting comments. But 211 00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:09,200 Speaker 4: I think that's how he's going to frame why he 212 00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:13,720 Speaker 4: decided to come to bring the largest US delegation to Davos. 213 00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:26,319 Speaker 2: And Strada. 214 00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 7: Amori mentioned that he's been lurching towards quite a lot 215 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 7: of populous options for affordability, and often feels like every 216 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 7: morning and there's a new one that's come from through 217 00:11:36,600 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 7: social posts, whether it's capping credit card fees ten percent 218 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 7: of stopping private companies from buying residential real estate. I 219 00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:48,120 Speaker 7: mean some of these things, you know, they got used 220 00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:51,080 Speaker 7: to tariffs, but some of these things really go to 221 00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:54,439 Speaker 7: the business model or some of the world's most successful companies. 222 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:56,599 Speaker 5: And the truth is, even though the US economy is 223 00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 5: doing so well, the company stocks are doing so well, 224 00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:04,320 Speaker 5: are not going to bed every night not worried. They 225 00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 5: are waking up with a headache because there is real tension. 226 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:10,000 Speaker 5: John talks about the jelly spine political leaders in Europe. 227 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 5: What do you talk about corporate leaders corporate America across 228 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:17,439 Speaker 5: the globe invisible spine. We are dealing with a world 229 00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:21,200 Speaker 5: of radical uncertainty for them. Former UK Prime Minister Richisuna 230 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 5: talks about this idea that the old world order is gone, 231 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:26,960 Speaker 5: the order that business has got used to, the rules 232 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:29,640 Speaker 5: based system that we all got used to, that's gone. 233 00:12:29,679 --> 00:12:32,840 Speaker 5: There's no point sitting around and moaning about it. So 234 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:35,840 Speaker 5: what's interesting is when you talk to the CEOs this week, 235 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:39,440 Speaker 5: the philosophy right now, at least seems to be don't 236 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 5: think about Trump. They're trying to shrug it off. They 237 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 5: are trying to focus at business's hand and saying, my 238 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 5: job is to run the business. If the US were 239 00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:50,160 Speaker 5: to attack Iran tonight tomorrow morning, I still will have 240 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:54,680 Speaker 5: to run a business that works until it doesn't, which 241 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:56,839 Speaker 5: is again when we talk about how this new year 242 00:12:56,880 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 5: has started off, we've gone from Venezuela to house, to 243 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:04,559 Speaker 5: the ideas on credit cards to before Trump leftfoot doubles 244 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 5: this threat about suing America's largest bank, JP Morgan. You 245 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 5: can't hope that the fire will not come to your 246 00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 5: front door and operate your business that way, And I. 247 00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 7: Have to say full disclosure as a former employee of 248 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:21,079 Speaker 7: JP Morgan. You do notice that Jamie Dimond did actually 249 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 7: come back pretty forcefully on that threat of ten percent 250 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:30,040 Speaker 7: of capping of credit card interest, and understandably since it 251 00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:33,920 Speaker 7: is such a major part of JP Morgan's business. You 252 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:38,120 Speaker 7: say they're trying to just act as if it will 253 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 7: go away, or just hope that it will go away, 254 00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 7: But they have to also observe that this is such 255 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:49,720 Speaker 7: an unpredictable administration that any amount of currying favor, and 256 00:13:49,760 --> 00:13:51,840 Speaker 7: all the things that they'd done that they thought would 257 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:55,240 Speaker 7: protect them don't seem to protect companies. I mean, Exon 258 00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 7: has also been sort of punished for being a little 259 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 7: bit honest about how long it might take to get 260 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:02,920 Speaker 7: oil production back in Venezuela. I mean, is that also 261 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:06,800 Speaker 7: causing some chief executives to think about Plan B rather 262 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 7: than just being totally focused on the. 263 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 5: US, which, also, by the way, goes back to the 264 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:14,800 Speaker 5: point about Jamie Damon forcefully responding to the credit card 265 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:18,600 Speaker 5: cap proposal, the rate cap proposal. What all the CEOs 266 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:21,880 Speaker 5: right now are doing are choosing to be silent by 267 00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:26,320 Speaker 5: and large, but responding to very specific policy changes. But 268 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:29,000 Speaker 5: when you have a lot of craziness across the board, 269 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:31,480 Speaker 5: and you don't have a voice in unison, you don't 270 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:34,720 Speaker 5: have a corporate block as such, then they will get 271 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:37,600 Speaker 5: steamrolled again and again and again. The thing is, the 272 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 5: pragmatic approach they seem to be taking right now is 273 00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:43,240 Speaker 5: all the growth is in the US. Every extra dollar 274 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:45,160 Speaker 5: you have, you want to invest it back in the US. 275 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:47,360 Speaker 5: So it almost makes sense for them, and the most 276 00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:50,840 Speaker 5: practical approach for them is right now, align themselves and 277 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:53,720 Speaker 5: line up behind the muscular and political will of the 278 00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:57,160 Speaker 5: United States. Much harder for companies outside of the US 279 00:14:57,280 --> 00:14:58,560 Speaker 5: to take such an approach, I. 280 00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:01,040 Speaker 7: Mean for the rest of the world. And you're also 281 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:05,680 Speaker 7: someone who's kind of written books about the operations of capitalism. 282 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 7: I mean, it's not just that Donald Trump has sort 283 00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 7: of taken us away from a rules based world and 284 00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 7: international norms and all of those things that we talk about. 285 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 6: All the time. 286 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 7: Sort of feels like it's also it's about everything being 287 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:18,840 Speaker 7: on the table all the time. Like if you're an 288 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:21,000 Speaker 7: electrician and you're trying to mend a bit of the circuit, 289 00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 7: you normally disconnect it from the rest of the circuit 290 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:25,440 Speaker 7: in order to fix it. But with him, everything is 291 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:28,800 Speaker 7: live all the time. Whether you've got the Peace Prize, 292 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:32,760 Speaker 7: can blow up your trade relationship or your defense relationship. 293 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 7: I mean, how does that change the way the global 294 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:36,040 Speaker 7: economy works? 295 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:37,200 Speaker 6: Two different things. 296 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:39,600 Speaker 3: One is very much the word that true Darren and 297 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:42,200 Speaker 3: Marie we're talking about, which is kind of trump panomics. 298 00:15:42,280 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 3: It's about Trump and as you say, everything is on 299 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 3: the table, anything could happen. And I think that is 300 00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:50,120 Speaker 3: a kind of monarchical thing. There is a king who 301 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 3: any morning can wake up and decide to head in 302 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 3: a particular direction, and on the whole you are basically 303 00:15:56,320 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 3: best if you're running a business, kind of keeping your 304 00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:01,840 Speaker 3: head down, as you say, taking longer term decisions where 305 00:16:01,880 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 3: you can, and if he actually really physically attacks something 306 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:08,080 Speaker 3: which is absolutely crucial to you, like credit cards with 307 00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:11,240 Speaker 3: JP Morgan, yes you fire back on that. But the 308 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:14,000 Speaker 3: general advice to CEOs at the moment is try and 309 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 3: stay friends with him, try and take advantage of him 310 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 3: when he's spending money for some particular reason, but don't 311 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 3: do it. But the more difficult world, I think for CEOs, 312 00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:25,000 Speaker 3: which you could argue goes back to COVID as much 313 00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:29,120 Speaker 3: as anything, is this world where suddenly you are going 314 00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:31,360 Speaker 3: to deal with the world where government of all sorts 315 00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:34,560 Speaker 3: matters much more than it did, and you're also dealing 316 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:38,160 Speaker 3: with an America Trump is very keen on pushing China 317 00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:40,600 Speaker 3: and he is protectionist. But you're going to come out 318 00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 3: of this, I think, regardless of whether you end up 319 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:47,200 Speaker 3: with son of Trump, daughter of Trump, or a Democrat, 320 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:49,280 Speaker 3: you're going to end up with America, which is still 321 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:53,720 Speaker 3: I think a much more protectionist and a much more 322 00:16:54,040 --> 00:16:58,040 Speaker 3: keen to take on China in the international sphere, then 323 00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:01,360 Speaker 3: you went into it. So I think that basically businesses 324 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 3: are taking one set of decisions, which is just. 325 00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:05,640 Speaker 6: How do we get through this next period? 326 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:10,679 Speaker 3: And the monarchy may last to November, or it may 327 00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:12,879 Speaker 3: last all the way two and a bit years to 328 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:15,360 Speaker 3: the end of the presidency, and we'll wait and see 329 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:18,399 Speaker 3: what Hampson the midterms. But their betting will be that 330 00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:21,720 Speaker 3: Trump will become gradually less powerful. But do you have 331 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:25,040 Speaker 3: this other, longer term world underneath it, which is much 332 00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:28,720 Speaker 3: much harder I think for many companies, especially global companies, 333 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:30,760 Speaker 3: to try and navigate. 334 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:34,040 Speaker 7: That's why I wonder when when one talks about Plan 335 00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:37,640 Speaker 7: B right now, at least in the advanced economies where 336 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:40,560 Speaker 7: the growth is in the US, but you see Canada 337 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:46,000 Speaker 7: others talking about diversifying their alliances, opening up new trade 338 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:49,840 Speaker 7: agreements with China. They may not be the most attractive partner, 339 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:54,160 Speaker 7: but they might well be the most predictable and reliable 340 00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:55,720 Speaker 7: partner in this environment. 341 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:57,679 Speaker 3: And that's interesting if you look at where Canada has 342 00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:00,960 Speaker 3: ended up. Because if you eye what I've said, and 343 00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:05,080 Speaker 3: virtually every poll shows it, Americans feel China is a 344 00:18:05,119 --> 00:18:08,640 Speaker 3: competitor in a big way. You could argue that if 345 00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 3: you were advising governments around the rest of the world, 346 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:14,919 Speaker 3: you would say, look, no matter what Trump does, it 347 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:17,199 Speaker 3: really doesn't make much sense for you to cozy up 348 00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:19,680 Speaker 3: to China, because actually that's going to be an issue 349 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:23,680 Speaker 3: in American politics forever, and America is always, perhaps increasingly 350 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:26,160 Speaker 3: is going to get more and more strident about that. 351 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:28,879 Speaker 3: And yet there you see Canada beginning to move in 352 00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:29,480 Speaker 3: that direction. 353 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:31,160 Speaker 6: Europe as well. 354 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:34,399 Speaker 3: You hear people, quite sensible people saying no, no, we 355 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:37,680 Speaker 3: need to have a plan B. Not just the conventional 356 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:41,679 Speaker 3: Harris consensus, one could call it that America is generally 357 00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:44,439 Speaker 3: wrong about most things. Quite sensible people are saying, we 358 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:46,879 Speaker 3: do need an alternative. That is a consequence I think 359 00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:47,359 Speaker 3: of Trump. 360 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:50,399 Speaker 5: But also just talking about your Plan B, just to 361 00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:52,479 Speaker 5: prove how difficult it is to plan for all of this. 362 00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:55,240 Speaker 5: If you were thinking about inauguration a year ago, you 363 00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:58,639 Speaker 5: were pretty certain that China will face the brunt of 364 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:00,800 Speaker 5: the first year of Trump to point, or at least 365 00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:03,119 Speaker 5: that was the rhetoric coming out one year later, what 366 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:05,560 Speaker 5: you have is record traite surplus for China, the maximum 367 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 5: number of listings on the Hong Kong Exchange. They've come 368 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:11,320 Speaker 5: out pretty well. They don't look to be struggling as 369 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:14,280 Speaker 5: much as say your traditional allies, where all the pain 370 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 5: point has been focused on focusing Europe, Canada and elsewhere. 371 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:20,639 Speaker 5: So how do you plan for a world like that 372 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 5: where you come in with the assumption the one thing 373 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:25,320 Speaker 5: you were certain about is that Trump is bad news 374 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:27,920 Speaker 5: for China. But when you look at twenty five percent 375 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:30,639 Speaker 5: of the second term that's already passed, it's nowhere close 376 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:31,480 Speaker 5: to that. 377 00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 3: I think that ties very quickly into the first conversation 378 00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:37,600 Speaker 3: because at least somebody close to Starmer, somebody close to Macro, 379 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:40,439 Speaker 3: and we say, look, China stood up to Trump and 380 00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 3: it did. Okay, Europe is not without some degree of 381 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:44,919 Speaker 3: leverage in these. 382 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:47,159 Speaker 4: Things, and China was able to have that surplus with 383 00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:50,080 Speaker 4: actually their exports in the United States going down, which 384 00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:52,240 Speaker 4: means they're pushing their products in other markets. And I 385 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 4: think this is the problem Europe's in and this unintended counterquence. 386 00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:57,800 Speaker 2: Of some of Trump's policies. 387 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 4: You would want administration early on talked about like a 388 00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:05,800 Speaker 4: North America fortress to combat China, but we just sort 389 00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:08,400 Speaker 4: of lost Prime Minister Mark Karney, we lost the Prime 390 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:11,760 Speaker 4: Minister of Spain, Sanchez, and Europe is being hollowed out 391 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,720 Speaker 4: its industrial base by China. Look at all the deals 392 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 4: that are being done with byd look at what's going 393 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,480 Speaker 4: on with Germany, and I think the Trump administration would 394 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:23,240 Speaker 4: want Europe the same way they acted about NATO anchor 395 00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:26,360 Speaker 4: the conversation to this extreme reports. In his first term, 396 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:28,680 Speaker 4: is he going to leave NATO or not? The end 397 00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:31,920 Speaker 4: goal was he got European countries to increase their defense. 398 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:33,960 Speaker 4: I think the end goal this administration would like to 399 00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:36,119 Speaker 4: see is them take a harder line on China. But 400 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:39,480 Speaker 4: that's incredibly hard to do when you're talking talking about 401 00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:40,160 Speaker 4: going after. 402 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:41,840 Speaker 7: This is the flip side of the This is the 403 00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:43,880 Speaker 7: flip side that it's negative for the US of having 404 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:47,200 Speaker 7: everything be on the table. You can't expect your closest 405 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:50,720 Speaker 7: allies to back you, whether it's on Ukraine or in 406 00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 7: Gaza or on China, if you're attacking them on all 407 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:55,040 Speaker 7: these other fronts. 408 00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 4: Right, Although Trump might use it as points of leverage 409 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:02,520 Speaker 4: to get to end destinations, but it is true he 410 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:04,480 Speaker 4: use everything as negotiating. 411 00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:07,840 Speaker 2: No deal's really ever done. It's just a constant conversation. 412 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:10,240 Speaker 7: But if no deal's ever done, what's the point. 413 00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:14,600 Speaker 2: Of doing a deal? A great it's a great question. 414 00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 7: I think that might be for me. That's the question 415 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,480 Speaker 7: of this week, I think, or at least that chief exactly. 416 00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:20,200 Speaker 6: Is our thing? 417 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:24,439 Speaker 3: Greenland A long time writing about conservative America. If Trump 418 00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:28,320 Speaker 3: deals with Iran, if Trump deals with Cuba, he will 419 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:30,840 Speaker 3: go into the conservative. 420 00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:31,600 Speaker 6: Halos of history. 421 00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 3: You know, he was the man who managed to change 422 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:35,000 Speaker 3: Cuba and Manumac changed Iran. 423 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:39,080 Speaker 6: Nowhere in all the. 424 00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:40,159 Speaker 3: Millions of the world words that have been written in 425 00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:42,720 Speaker 3: the Republican Party and Conservative America as the word Greenland 426 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 3: appeared once. It's not It wasn't considered a core priority 427 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:51,800 Speaker 3: of the right in America to want these things. Venezuela 428 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,120 Speaker 3: may be quite useful. They were a pain in the neck, 429 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:56,520 Speaker 3: but it's not as big as some of these other things. 430 00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 3: So why exactly is he going this? 431 00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:15,320 Speaker 7: It so just shifting back again a little bit to 432 00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:20,120 Speaker 7: the domestic annery. If the Supreme Court does rule that 433 00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 7: the president can't just slap taris on any country he 434 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 7: wants for any reason, or at least not without congressional approval, 435 00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:28,200 Speaker 7: how does the administration respond to. 436 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:31,359 Speaker 4: That Trump has talked about out of the midterms, this 437 00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:35,080 Speaker 4: thing called a tariff dividend, which is very circular. Set 438 00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:37,760 Speaker 4: up high tariffs but then give out to American consumers 439 00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:41,120 Speaker 4: two thousand dollars checks. I don't think there is any 440 00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:43,240 Speaker 4: appetite for this in Congress, but it doesn't mean the 441 00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 4: President is not going to talk about it and make 442 00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:48,400 Speaker 4: it a priority, so they won't be able to use 443 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:50,639 Speaker 4: that money. We potentially could see some movement in the 444 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 4: bond market, which actually is something that has been a 445 00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:56,639 Speaker 4: check on Trump. It was a massive check on Trump 446 00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:58,879 Speaker 4: in April. That was the moment he decided he was 447 00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,000 Speaker 4: going to reverse course on trade and not use it 448 00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:03,120 Speaker 4: as a new rules of road, but. 449 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:04,320 Speaker 2: Actually start to negotiate. 450 00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 4: But whether or not the Supreme Court says AEPA, which 451 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:10,360 Speaker 4: is the justification he has. Most of these tariffs are reciprocal, 452 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:13,239 Speaker 4: and the fentanyl tariffs is legal or not. They have 453 00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:17,320 Speaker 4: a slew of legal alternatives that they can use. There 454 00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:22,359 Speaker 4: are tons of sections two thirty, twos three two's already 455 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:25,320 Speaker 4: they're enacted for other tariffs we have in the United 456 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:29,320 Speaker 4: States and other countries, and this administration is already preparing them. 457 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:31,480 Speaker 4: So a lot of people are just looking through it 458 00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:35,720 Speaker 4: because regardless if they're using IEP as a justification or not, 459 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:37,800 Speaker 4: they'll just find another way to justify them. 460 00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:42,359 Speaker 7: It's the bigger check potentially that they are very unpopular, 461 00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:47,560 Speaker 7: and rightly or wrongly, tariffs are associated domestically with making 462 00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,639 Speaker 7: the cost of living affordability problem worst. We had a 463 00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:53,920 Speaker 7: report from the Keel Institute for the World Economy which 464 00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:57,600 Speaker 7: was out this week saying that US consumers had paid 465 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:03,040 Speaker 7: ninety six percent of the tariffs. He is seemingly accepted 466 00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:07,200 Speaker 7: that in suspending them in somewhere as beef and other things. 467 00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:09,440 Speaker 7: So if you're one of America's allies, aren't you just 468 00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:13,720 Speaker 7: waiting for popular opinion to do what the Supreme Court 469 00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:14,399 Speaker 7: may or may not do. 470 00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:18,920 Speaker 4: Potentially, when it comes to places where we saw high 471 00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:23,080 Speaker 4: tariff Trump has done one eighties, like in some imported 472 00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:26,479 Speaker 4: food products. But for the most part Trump, I mean, 473 00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:28,840 Speaker 4: the other day he reiterated that it's still his favorite 474 00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:29,800 Speaker 4: word of all the words. 475 00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:31,160 Speaker 2: I think he said this to you as well. 476 00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:31,480 Speaker 8: John. 477 00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:35,600 Speaker 4: He is the tariff man, and he truly believes it's 478 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:40,440 Speaker 4: important for rebuilding the American industrial base. I don't see 479 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:42,840 Speaker 4: them going away even if they show back up in polls. 480 00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:45,560 Speaker 4: I remember the word tariff and a lot of consumer 481 00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:49,400 Speaker 4: sentiments around last April kept coming up and people were 482 00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,399 Speaker 4: really concerned over the summer, but that has started to wane, 483 00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,360 Speaker 4: So it could be an issue if once again he's 484 00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:58,800 Speaker 4: going back to trade negotiations because AIPA was struck down, 485 00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:02,280 Speaker 4: and then that's to seep through again in consumer sentiment 486 00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:04,960 Speaker 4: in polling ahead of the midterms, when he really needs 487 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:09,560 Speaker 4: to get the American consumer feeling well about their prospects 488 00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:13,440 Speaker 4: because you can continuously in poll after poll Americans do 489 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:17,360 Speaker 4: not feel good about how expensive things are and the affordability, 490 00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:20,119 Speaker 4: which is why we see him really go towards these 491 00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:21,280 Speaker 4: populist messages. 492 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:24,439 Speaker 5: But that goes back to the corporate conversation, right, if 493 00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:26,280 Speaker 5: you're a leader, how do you plan on the way over? 494 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:29,200 Speaker 5: I was reading Lloyd Blanc and the former Goldman CEO's 495 00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:32,040 Speaker 5: his memoir, and he talks about the mid nineteen nineties 496 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,399 Speaker 5: after the fall of USSR and how excited they were 497 00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:38,840 Speaker 5: about opening offices in Moscow and Seoul and Indonesia and 498 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:42,359 Speaker 5: other places. Right now, thirty years later, it seems like 499 00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:44,359 Speaker 5: we're in the middle of if nothing else. We can 500 00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,840 Speaker 5: call this a geopolitical recession. You have to focus local, 501 00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:51,280 Speaker 5: and you have to think about that. And in that moment, 502 00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:53,639 Speaker 5: can they still go back to talking about the thing 503 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:55,720 Speaker 5: that they've been talking about for the last thirty years. 504 00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:59,959 Speaker 5: And it's not just the threat of Trump's uncertain policies 505 00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:02,879 Speaker 5: that's weighing on them. If you come to this week, 506 00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:05,280 Speaker 5: the other big conversation that we haven't talked about but 507 00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:09,040 Speaker 5: is dominating most of the conversations artificial intelligence, because that 508 00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,960 Speaker 5: is also going to have a big impact on these businesses. 509 00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:15,280 Speaker 5: John and I were talking about this earlier, about every 510 00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:17,560 Speaker 5: company having to think about this idea of a chief 511 00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:21,520 Speaker 5: risk officer from a resiliency perspective. If anything, the lesson 512 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:25,320 Speaker 5: that you draw from post COVID is are you resilient 513 00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:28,120 Speaker 5: enough as a company? That lesson has to be applied 514 00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:32,000 Speaker 5: in Trump two point over the remaining Trump piers as well. 515 00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:34,400 Speaker 5: That's a big challenge and that's perhaps one reason why 516 00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:38,359 Speaker 5: this week is perhaps less about what's happening inside Congress 517 00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:40,320 Speaker 5: Center and more about what's happening across the road at 518 00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:42,919 Speaker 5: the Belvedere. It's more commercial, less virtual signal. 519 00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,200 Speaker 4: I'm glad she brought this up because the President just 520 00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:47,480 Speaker 4: had a White House event and he was flanked not 521 00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:51,040 Speaker 4: just by Republican governors like Glenn Youngkin, but also Jos 522 00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:54,520 Speaker 4: Shapiro of Pennsylvania, and the message of what he was 523 00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:57,920 Speaker 4: talking about was electricity prices going up for consumers because 524 00:26:57,920 --> 00:26:59,920 Speaker 4: of data centers coming in, which is huge in virgin 525 00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:03,919 Speaker 4: which the mid midterm elections in Virginia, New Jersey we 526 00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:06,840 Speaker 4: saw go to the Democrats and they ran on electricity prices. 527 00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:11,240 Speaker 4: Trump basically is telling tech companies, you want data centers, 528 00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,000 Speaker 4: you need to pay a higher fee, and you need 529 00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:15,840 Speaker 4: to subsidize electricity for American consumers. 530 00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:17,480 Speaker 2: So that's interesting. 531 00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:19,159 Speaker 7: I'm glad you got onto AI because I was going 532 00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:22,280 Speaker 7: to end up there because in any other year it 533 00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:24,879 Speaker 7: would be the dominant the only thing we're thinking about. 534 00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:28,160 Speaker 7: I suspect it will still be one of two things 535 00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:29,360 Speaker 7: that we're mainly focused on. 536 00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:30,240 Speaker 2: At Davos. 537 00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:33,520 Speaker 7: We had a great piece this morning that was talking 538 00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:37,040 Speaker 7: about going from rule based finance to power based finance, 539 00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:41,360 Speaker 7: Survival of the richest, not survival of the fittest. In 540 00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:45,040 Speaker 7: that world where there are a lot of people, certainly 541 00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:48,000 Speaker 7: not a lot of countries getting together and writing rules 542 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:51,960 Speaker 7: and thinking about risks. How does that affect the way 543 00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:54,920 Speaker 7: AI hits the global economy and is rolled out. 544 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:57,200 Speaker 3: I think it's possible, you know, we could look back 545 00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:00,760 Speaker 3: on this Davos as peak Trump. One way you could 546 00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:03,199 Speaker 3: look at it as peak tech is that you know, 547 00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:06,520 Speaker 3: you we wander around here. Everyone here has seen pretty 548 00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:09,520 Speaker 3: much every you know, every other shop has got some 549 00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:12,840 Speaker 3: the words AI appearing above it, and there is a 550 00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:16,679 Speaker 3: lot of money floating around everyone's building ever bigger data centers. 551 00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:18,320 Speaker 3: I saw someone earlier said, you know, if you put 552 00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:20,720 Speaker 3: fifty billion into your data center, do you worry that 553 00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:23,880 Speaker 3: somebody else is putting sixty? And maybe something's this sort 554 00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:27,520 Speaker 3: of bidding up going on. But in general, whenever you 555 00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:31,879 Speaker 3: have a a revolution of the scale that we're talking about, 556 00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:33,959 Speaker 3: and I think it does tie a little bit into 557 00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:36,119 Speaker 3: the midterms in a very vague way at the moment, 558 00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:38,800 Speaker 3: there will be a lot of people sitting thinking my 559 00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:39,760 Speaker 3: job is at risk. 560 00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:42,200 Speaker 6: There's a lot of you know, it's the. 561 00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:46,720 Speaker 3: First time that's probably going to hit college educated white 562 00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:50,560 Speaker 3: Americans on the coasts. That's a very different different group 563 00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:53,760 Speaker 3: of people than have hitherto been hit. And I think 564 00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:55,520 Speaker 3: on the whole you're going to end up with some 565 00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:58,360 Speaker 3: kind of backlash against the tech companies. You've already seen it. 566 00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:02,080 Speaker 3: I would argue completely, just viably in the ways they've 567 00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:05,400 Speaker 3: done social media and the lack of rules they face 568 00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:08,360 Speaker 3: there than actually we all do around this table. You 569 00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:12,800 Speaker 3: don't head towards periods of disruption like this without political consequences. 570 00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:16,240 Speaker 3: And I think Trump is sort of finding his way there. 571 00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:18,840 Speaker 3: But you look back one hundred years ago, Teddy Roosevelt 572 00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:22,600 Speaker 3: was condemning the robber barons and the malefactors of great wealth, 573 00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:25,560 Speaker 3: and that in some ways was a much more stretched 574 00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:28,560 Speaker 3: out transition that we're facing now, and so I would 575 00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,360 Speaker 3: expect there to be there will be ever more political 576 00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:33,880 Speaker 3: pressure building up in both parties on. 577 00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:37,680 Speaker 7: That, and focused also on wealth. There's a spring of countries. 578 00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:40,800 Speaker 7: I mean, obviously California is proposing wealth tax, a wealth tax, 579 00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:43,920 Speaker 7: and across Europe there's a lot of voices and not 580 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:46,600 Speaker 7: just on the left, also from some of the far 581 00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:50,400 Speaker 7: right parties talking about wealth taxes. How Worriedestreea do you 582 00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:52,800 Speaker 7: think as anyone in Dallas about wealth taxes? 583 00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:53,440 Speaker 2: Oh? 584 00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:55,840 Speaker 5: Well, that's what's interesting to me is about this whole 585 00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:59,480 Speaker 5: point about the tech sector is does the Trump administration 586 00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:02,200 Speaker 5: and does Trump sour on that industry, Because if there's 587 00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:05,360 Speaker 5: any corner of Corporate America or any sort of companies 588 00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:07,880 Speaker 5: across the world, the sector that's most pleased with Donald 589 00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:11,280 Speaker 5: Trump has to be the tech industry because he's put 590 00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:14,000 Speaker 5: his shoulder into the infrastructure build out in the US 591 00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:17,360 Speaker 5: deregulation push in some ways, using the US government to 592 00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:21,560 Speaker 5: act as the chief salesperson to push for the full 593 00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:24,360 Speaker 5: stack AI build out, you know, going to the Middle 594 00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:27,560 Speaker 5: Eastern countries and saying you need to buy American over Chinese. 595 00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:31,760 Speaker 5: That is in area where the tech titans are extremely 596 00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:35,360 Speaker 5: happy as a reason their wealth has gone up so much. 597 00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:38,920 Speaker 5: But when you factor that in against the twenty twenty 598 00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:42,479 Speaker 5: six midterms and the populist term that Trump is taking, 599 00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:44,920 Speaker 5: does he then also look at this sector and takes 600 00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:48,480 Speaker 5: some other measures that were finally, much like everywhere else, 601 00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:51,040 Speaker 5: he also sours on tech. And they have a serious 602 00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:52,920 Speaker 5: problem that they will have to deal with and not 603 00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 5: the support of the administration. 604 00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:59,120 Speaker 7: And Marie if Ai and worries about AI not just 605 00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:02,240 Speaker 7: the higher cost of electricity for people, but also possible 606 00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:05,520 Speaker 7: crowding out of other investments, other kinds of jobs, people 607 00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:08,880 Speaker 7: worrying about their own jobs. If that becomes really politically 608 00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:13,560 Speaker 7: salient going into the midterms. Isn't the President now very 609 00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:17,040 Speaker 7: much joined in people's minds with AI, with the tech Titans, 610 00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:19,920 Speaker 7: they were all there at the inauguration. He's kind of 611 00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:21,520 Speaker 7: implicated in all of it, isn't he. 612 00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:21,760 Speaker 3: Yeah? 613 00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:24,000 Speaker 4: And to Shree's point, when it comes to they couldn't 614 00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:24,920 Speaker 4: be happier with him. 615 00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:26,400 Speaker 2: Jensen Wang and. 616 00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:29,640 Speaker 4: Video were very frustrated with the Biden administration. They had 617 00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:32,000 Speaker 4: this diffusion rule. Not to get to technical, but they 618 00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:34,880 Speaker 4: basically divvied up the world in different parts. You're either 619 00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:38,480 Speaker 4: tier one, two or three. Trump came in and said 620 00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:40,360 Speaker 4: we're getting rid of the diffusion rule. And I saw 621 00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:43,240 Speaker 4: Jensen Wong and Riot and he said, diffusion Rule's dead. 622 00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:44,000 Speaker 2: He's like, this is. 623 00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:47,920 Speaker 4: A whole new world, meaning they can go and bring 624 00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:48,720 Speaker 4: their chips. 625 00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:50,960 Speaker 7: But that was mainly about stopping them selling to people 626 00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:52,320 Speaker 7: who might then give them to China. 627 00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:55,880 Speaker 4: Right. So I always joked that Jensen Wong is running 628 00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:57,920 Speaker 4: AI policy out of the White House because what in 629 00:31:58,000 --> 00:31:59,520 Speaker 4: Video wanted they've got. 630 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:01,760 Speaker 2: And I think think maybe to that point, Trump this is. 631 00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:03,560 Speaker 4: Why he feels like he can say to the tech 632 00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:08,880 Speaker 4: companies with somethinglike electricity, Silicon Valley has done well. Main 633 00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:10,760 Speaker 4: Street needs to do well, which is why you need 634 00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:14,800 Speaker 4: to pay and subsidize for some of this electrical build out. 635 00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:16,600 Speaker 4: It's the same way the Treasury Secretary will say Wall 636 00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:18,600 Speaker 4: Street done as well, We're now focused on Main Street. 637 00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:22,040 Speaker 4: They might take a similar tact when it comes to 638 00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:27,360 Speaker 4: the tech companies because Trump has made it very easy 639 00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:29,520 Speaker 4: for them to expand, not just in the United States 640 00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:30,280 Speaker 4: but around the world. 641 00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:32,880 Speaker 5: But that proposal in itself is not as harsh and 642 00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:36,160 Speaker 5: as punitive as just reading out the headline makes it sound. 643 00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:39,040 Speaker 5: Because tech companies right now are willing to pay for 644 00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:42,280 Speaker 5: electricity because there isn't enough power generation, so right now 645 00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:44,120 Speaker 5: that isn't a big problem for them. 646 00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:44,840 Speaker 6: And again, this is. 647 00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:49,160 Speaker 5: An industry with some serious and intense internal rivalries. And 648 00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:50,959 Speaker 5: yet when all of them can band together and say 649 00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:53,680 Speaker 5: everything that the President has done has been great for us, 650 00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:56,880 Speaker 5: tells you how much this has been a pro ai 651 00:32:57,000 --> 00:33:00,400 Speaker 5: pro us tech administration. That is why when you someone 652 00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:03,640 Speaker 5: like Mark Benioff coming into Switzerland and talking about I 653 00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:07,800 Speaker 5: am extremely keen to hear the President continue to force 654 00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:12,440 Speaker 5: as see yourself force continuing to prioritize US companies. I 655 00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:16,440 Speaker 5: also want to hear remarks from European regulatory officials because 656 00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:20,160 Speaker 5: they made some seriously controversial remarks last year. That's not 657 00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:24,040 Speaker 5: how business leaders usually talk about the regulatory landscape and 658 00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,720 Speaker 5: another continent. But they feel emboldened to be able to 659 00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:28,560 Speaker 5: say that because they know they have the backing of 660 00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:28,880 Speaker 5: these I. 661 00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:30,720 Speaker 3: Think there's a very clear division though that from the 662 00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:34,480 Speaker 3: tech titans point of view, people like Mark Great, you know, 663 00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:36,840 Speaker 3: why not make as much use of this man whilst 664 00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:39,840 Speaker 3: you can. On the other hand, Trump is a populist. 665 00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:43,920 Speaker 3: I think the more this goes on, the more unpopular 666 00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:47,200 Speaker 3: this particular group of people come. The idea that he 667 00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:50,520 Speaker 3: is gaining politically by being seen to be close to them. 668 00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:54,120 Speaker 3: I think maybe Trump continues that, but the people who 669 00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:56,240 Speaker 3: want to be his successors, I think will be much 670 00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:59,160 Speaker 3: less willing to do it. And I think if you 671 00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:02,640 Speaker 3: look at other originally, the Robert Barons were great people 672 00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:06,600 Speaker 3: if you were a politician to be associated with previous things. 673 00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:08,600 Speaker 3: People have banged on about the white you know, the 674 00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:11,399 Speaker 3: white heat of technology was one British Prime minister talked 675 00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,520 Speaker 3: about and it makes you look trendy and good and 676 00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:14,320 Speaker 3: ahead of things. 677 00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:16,680 Speaker 6: But once you get. 678 00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:19,440 Speaker 3: Associated with lots of people losing their jobs exactly with 679 00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:22,520 Speaker 3: electricity prices going up or whatever then suddenly, and also 680 00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:26,160 Speaker 3: with enormous inequality, then it gets more difficult. So I 681 00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:29,960 Speaker 3: would be even if the business people are making the 682 00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:32,000 Speaker 3: most out of it, and good luck to them, I 683 00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:35,480 Speaker 3: think from Trump's point of view, actually strangely, he'll be 684 00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:37,760 Speaker 3: ever less keen to get a photograph with it when. 685 00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:38,800 Speaker 2: People start losing their jobs. 686 00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:40,440 Speaker 4: I think that's when it will get a lot harsher. 687 00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:41,959 Speaker 2: To John's point. 688 00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:45,920 Speaker 4: Steve Bannon, who is pretty far right, talks about this 689 00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:49,319 Speaker 4: all the time. He's very anti companies like open AI 690 00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:52,240 Speaker 4: and anthropic. He says, it's going to be taking people's jobs, 691 00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:55,080 Speaker 4: and that is I think when you actually start to 692 00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:58,800 Speaker 4: see that happen. Though you haven't truly seen AI steel jobs. 693 00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:01,080 Speaker 4: It's a very high unemployment rate right now actually for 694 00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:05,160 Speaker 4: college grads, but no one has really been able to pinpoint. 695 00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:07,040 Speaker 2: Is it specifically because of AI. 696 00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:09,799 Speaker 4: But once that happens, you'll see I don't even think 697 00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:11,759 Speaker 4: just a distance from the White House, you're going to 698 00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:14,879 Speaker 4: see some fierce criticism as well from both sides of 699 00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:16,239 Speaker 4: the parties from Congress. 700 00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:17,880 Speaker 7: Okay, so that would be my last question. We can 701 00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:20,000 Speaker 7: run out of times so very briefly. But I think 702 00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:22,239 Speaker 7: for all of you the question that people who are 703 00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:24,960 Speaker 7: not on this mountain will most often ask. I'm sure 704 00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:27,880 Speaker 7: they ask all of you, they ask me, is with 705 00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:31,359 Speaker 7: all this going on, having listened to this conversation about 706 00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:34,560 Speaker 7: the end of global norms and the lack of rulemaking unpredictability. 707 00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:36,640 Speaker 7: If we'd gone into it, we could have also talked 708 00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:40,399 Speaker 7: about no longer having immigration, seemingly in the US, which 709 00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:42,600 Speaker 7: has been entirely reliant on immigration for a lot of 710 00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:45,080 Speaker 7: its growth in the last few years, getting in the 711 00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:47,920 Speaker 7: way of more electricity generation because of not wanting to 712 00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:51,080 Speaker 7: have renewables and that push all of those things. They 713 00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:53,520 Speaker 7: would hear that and say, how on earth are the 714 00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:56,720 Speaker 7: markets still so high? How can all these business people 715 00:35:56,760 --> 00:36:00,160 Speaker 7: here be so calm and confident in the future, sure 716 00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:03,319 Speaker 7: of the economy? Will all of these things happening? Can 717 00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:07,880 Speaker 7: that last? That ability for the wall streets and a 718 00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:10,640 Speaker 7: big part of the economy to somehow still be independent 719 00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:11,520 Speaker 7: of these concerns. 720 00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:14,600 Speaker 5: A lot of these business people are happy when you're 721 00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:18,120 Speaker 5: making one hundred dollars off of eight people instead of 722 00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:20,759 Speaker 5: eighty people. So the technology and the embrace of that 723 00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,879 Speaker 5: technology has helped them, but sooner or later they will 724 00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:26,400 Speaker 5: have to worry about the trickle down effects of it, 725 00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:29,440 Speaker 5: and which is why, perhaps a little shocking, but when 726 00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:32,839 Speaker 5: Klaus Schwab, the ultimate champion of this conflict, the one 727 00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:34,840 Speaker 5: who set up this velvet rope summit and what it 728 00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:37,840 Speaker 5: has been for over fifty years, and last year he 729 00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:40,239 Speaker 5: resigned from the boredom in a series of scandals. But 730 00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:42,600 Speaker 5: he's out with the book last week where he actually 731 00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:46,799 Speaker 5: says when bad decisions are made, that is when the 732 00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:49,160 Speaker 5: common man, that is when the citizen starts to think 733 00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:52,040 Speaker 5: about malicious intent, and that's what you have to. 734 00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:53,719 Speaker 6: Be really, really careful about. 735 00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:56,759 Speaker 7: The money. 736 00:36:56,880 --> 00:36:58,799 Speaker 3: I'm very bad on market timing, but one of the 737 00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:01,320 Speaker 3: sort of basic rules of that economics as if something 738 00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:06,040 Speaker 3: cannot carry on forever, it will stop. And my instinct 739 00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:09,000 Speaker 3: is the world you depicted is one that cannot carry 740 00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:09,480 Speaker 3: on forever. 741 00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:13,320 Speaker 6: So from that point of view, I'm bearish, well bearish. 742 00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:16,800 Speaker 7: But remembering the slogan we had from a big DeVos 743 00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:19,319 Speaker 7: curtain raiser this morning, of it still the survival of 744 00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:21,279 Speaker 7: the riches. I suspect the rich will still be with 745 00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:24,879 Speaker 7: us in a year's time. John Stree and Marie, thank 746 00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:25,439 Speaker 7: you very much. 747 00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:48,440 Speaker 1: Thank you. 748 00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:05,840 Speaker 7: Then the cover left so that we returned