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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast

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Speaker 1: Network Guy and Chad Noman. I will be joined in

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Speaker 1: a moment by my companion Mika padre My BFF Professional

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Speaker 1: Better Extraordinarire Mr Simon Hunter. Reminder, I'm the Chief Content

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Speaker 1: Officer of the Action Network. The Action Network is a

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Speaker 1: company that focuses entirely on serving the sports betting fan.

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Speaker 1: You need it, we got it. You want research, you

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Speaker 1: want data, you want picks, you want analysis. We do

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Speaker 1: it all on our website, Action Network dot com. We

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Speaker 1: do it all in our free award winning app, Action

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Speaker 1: Network App. Go download it. You can also listen to

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Speaker 1: our Action Network podcast for NFL are Big Bets on

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Speaker 1: Campus podcast for college football. We got so much to

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Speaker 1: talk about today, Simon. We're gonna go over our Simon says,

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Speaker 1: which is you say it, we bet it. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: do every game on the slate, every single game. Reminder,

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Speaker 1: we'll be back on Thursday, will narrow down the slate.

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Speaker 1: We'll focus in on the five, six, seven bets that

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Speaker 1: we love the most as we head into Sunday, which

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Speaker 1: we will put in the Action Network Gap. My brother,

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Speaker 1: what's going on, Simon and so much is change in

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Speaker 1: the week. I went from being the only guy with

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Speaker 1: the first place team to all of us have first

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Speaker 1: place teams in our own divisions tied for first place.

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Speaker 1: I should say it's uh, it's NFL. A lot of

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Speaker 1: changing pieces a week the week. Here's what's amazing, are we?

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Speaker 1: You know? Week one underdogs winning. You know, everything is

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Speaker 1: fantastic for guys like us who tend to favor playing

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Speaker 1: the underdogs. Anyways, it's brilliant. Works out perfectly. The next week.

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Speaker 1: You and I were all over the Eagles, were all

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Speaker 1: over the jagu um. We're all over Atlanta, Atlanta um,

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Speaker 1: and we get our ass handing to us. I would say,

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Speaker 1: of all the losses again, we can talk about our

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Speaker 1: bad ones, the Colts money line and Vikings money line.

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Speaker 1: The Cult should have won that game. Carson Wentz his

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Speaker 1: turnovers and decisions. The decisions he was making was the

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Speaker 1: reason they didn't win that game. The Vikings, though, the

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Speaker 1: missfield goal, oh my god, the Atlanta one, which launted

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Speaker 1: us for a long time. They were down three with

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Speaker 1: the ball in the third quarter, so I think there's

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Speaker 1: three minutes up in the third quarter. Tampa Bay scored

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Speaker 1: twenty one and answered points. You can't make it up.

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Speaker 1: It hurts, but that's why we do a value based job.

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Speaker 1: And all these people who want all that money, all

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Speaker 1: the chalk bets all day, they lost all the chiefs

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Speaker 1: while I mean, you had to walk off home run

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Speaker 1: with the Ravens. So it's the life and flow of

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Speaker 1: pro and verse. Show're gonna get the knockout blow at

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Speaker 1: the end of the day. Yeah, you gotta stick with

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Speaker 1: your principles. That's the the line. Like it's not all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden like we're only going to bet favorites

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Speaker 1: this week. We're gonna go with the what the numbers

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Speaker 1: are telling us. And when we see the value and

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Speaker 1: and you know, in the long run, if you're doing

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Speaker 1: it right, if you're doing it the way that you

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Speaker 1: know you and I have been doing it for years,

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Speaker 1: then you end up enjoying your betting experience. You are

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Speaker 1: the anomaly, You're the exception to the rule. You're the

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Speaker 1: person who has turned this into a career. Most people

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Speaker 1: are not. Most people shouldn't. Most people should just be thinking,

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Speaker 1: I want to put a few bucks down on the weekend.

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Speaker 1: I want to come out with more than I did

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Speaker 1: at the end of the season. I want to break

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Speaker 1: even at the end of the season. I want to

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Speaker 1: enjoy the experience. That's it. If anyone thinks they're doing

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Speaker 1: this to get rich, this was a very good weekend

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Speaker 1: to explain why you don't do this to get rich.

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Speaker 1: You do this too, Salt the experience, have a little

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Speaker 1: bit more fun. Also, the NFL is getting more and

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Speaker 1: more interesting because the era of of go with your gut,

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Speaker 1: cover your ass coaching is disappearing. And and you saw

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Speaker 1: it with the way the Eagles consistently went for it

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Speaker 1: at the goal line on fourth and goal. It was

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Speaker 1: costing us because we needed the points, but they were like,

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Speaker 1: four seven is worth more than three. I'll have this

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Speaker 1: team backed up, you know. Unfortunately for them, the Niners

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Speaker 1: drove the ball down yards down the field and scored

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Speaker 1: a touchdown, but analytically it was the right call. Miami

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Speaker 1: the same thing, continued to go for it on fourth

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Speaker 1: and goal. The Colts continued to go for it on

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Speaker 1: fourth and goal. The best worked out for US was

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Speaker 1: the Ravens John Harbaugh asking Lamar Jackson, do you want

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Speaker 1: to go for this on fourth and one to end

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Speaker 1: the game? Worked out great for us, but like How

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Speaker 1: does that make us rethink handicapping? How does it make

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Speaker 1: us rethink handicapping totals all this stuff When there is

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Speaker 1: more and more analytics coming into play at the goal

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Speaker 1: line on fourth downs. I believe it's even more of

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Speaker 1: a reason about these money lines on these teams. Um,

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Speaker 1: Tennessee was gonna lose that game, but they went forward

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Speaker 1: on fourth and ten, they got it, and not only

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Speaker 1: did they cover the number, they went out right. If

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Speaker 1: they didn't get it on that fourth down, guess what

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Speaker 1: they would have lost by seven. They wouldn't have covered

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Speaker 1: any of the numbers. So as a value based job,

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Speaker 1: I find myself taking more money lines on these underdogs. Um,

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Speaker 1: it did not work out for me a lot this weekend,

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Speaker 1: like that. The Atlanta one was such false hope where

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Speaker 1: it was like they're down through the ball. The Troit's

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Speaker 1: money line was I think everyone in America was behind

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Speaker 1: that because that whole twenty five dollar back kid where

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Speaker 1: it was like this kid was dollars and seven thousand

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Speaker 1: dollars and first half I was dancing. I was like,

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Speaker 1: this is gonna happen. Like Green Bay's defense overrated, Aaron

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Speaker 1: Rodgers overrated, and they came on the second half, absolutely

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Speaker 1: dominated Detroit and just completely blew that game out. So again,

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Speaker 1: as much as the Joe's won, um, they won some games,

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Speaker 1: it was definitely a split week where the pros won

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Speaker 1: a little bit and the public went a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Was kind of one of those things, uh that the dogs,

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Speaker 1: the dogs showed up at the big big dogs. None

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Speaker 1: of them want outright, which we need for Survivor contest

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Speaker 1: as well. Yeah, so we we're gonna have a very

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Speaker 1: special review at the end of the podcast. Reminder on Thursday,

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Speaker 1: we'll get into Survivor picks or five best picks, etcetera, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: So listen up for Thursday as well. Um, the only

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Speaker 1: coach not playing, the only coach who continues to play

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Speaker 1: cover your ass football. That would be Matt Nagy, who

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Speaker 1: refuses to admit what everybody else in the world can

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Speaker 1: see that Justin Field should be the starting quarterback because

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Speaker 1: he says Andy Dalton will be the starting quarterback if

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Speaker 1: he's healthy. We'll get to that, I promise you. First

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Speaker 1: up on the docket Thursday Night football Bump Bump Bump, Uh,

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Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans Game open four and a half.

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Speaker 1: Now Texans plus eight, massive home underdog with a team

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Speaker 1: playing without its starting quarterback, which was the only reason

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Speaker 1: really to even think about betting on this team against

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Speaker 1: the Panthers team that now everyone in the world is

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Speaker 1: gonna be over valuating because they did what we said

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Speaker 1: they would do. Cover against the Jets, cover against the Saints.

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Speaker 1: I love this for Houston when it was too rot

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Speaker 1: because this is typical, like you just spoke about, We

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Speaker 1: knew that Carolines would come in flying high. Again. Texas

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Speaker 1: played way better than I gave him any credit before.

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Speaker 1: I thought Cleveland was gonna really show up in that game,

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Speaker 1: and they didn't. Houston hung in that game the entire time.

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Speaker 1: You want to talk about coach blunders that you should

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Speaker 1: watch this clip of the Texans head coach. He had

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Speaker 1: a penalty, he accepted it, and he was He had

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Speaker 1: a fourth and one, and instead of going for you,

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Speaker 1: punted in the middle of the field. So there's still

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Speaker 1: some coaches out there that make these bone head moves

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Speaker 1: on fourth down. But I believe what he said was,

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Speaker 1: I know there's a lot of analytics and football, but

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Speaker 1: I gotta go with my guts sometimes and his gut

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Speaker 1: told him too instead of accepting, instead of declining a

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Speaker 1: penalty and having third and ten, he accepted the penalty

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Speaker 1: for fourth and one and then punted the ball. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so's a lot of we might be, um, we might

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Speaker 1: be looking back when it's Texas teams. Remember how good

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Speaker 1: they were for those first two weeks and then they

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Speaker 1: just completely fell apart. And I love that the pro

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Speaker 1: and me is like staring at this and going, you

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Speaker 1: gotta take the seven and a half. This is overvalued.

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Speaker 1: But because it's Thursday night, a lot of times I

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Speaker 1: like to just think to myself, how how likely is

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Speaker 1: it for this team to cover this number? And when

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Speaker 1: we're looking at Carolina, you kind of alluded to it.

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Speaker 1: This defense, they might be for real with Carolina, they

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Speaker 1: might have one of the better defense in the league.

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Speaker 1: They completely dominated the Saints. I know the Saints team,

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Speaker 1: we're missing a lot of their coaches, but that that

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Speaker 1: didn't look too flukey to me. That the Carolina's game

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Speaker 1: plan was really sound in that game. And Sam Donald,

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Speaker 1: your guy, you look good in that game as well.

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Speaker 1: And we're just looking at about offense in the town.

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Speaker 1: On both sides of the ball, I think there's a

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Speaker 1: big advantage here with Carolina, and now you're taking to

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Speaker 1: Rod Taylor out and putting in I think a rookie

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Speaker 1: quarterback for Houston. I don't know what they're gonna what

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Speaker 1: they're gonna go with, but if it's if it's the rookie,

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Speaker 1: this is a bad situation because you don't get what

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Speaker 1: maybe one practice this week before the Thursday game, because

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Speaker 1: the for a week for this team not good. Not

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Speaker 1: good for Houston hearing upset spots. So it'll be rare

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Speaker 1: for me to do the Chalky plays. But I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: take this one here with Carolina. I'll take the mind

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Speaker 1: seven and a half. I made this number eight. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's a it's a look. I love this Carolina team. Uh,

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Speaker 1: I love that rule. We started thinking about them last year.

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Speaker 1: It's a little bit like the Dolphins two years ago,

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Speaker 1: where we knew the Dolphins in the sort of set

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Speaker 1: the last twelve thirteen games of two thousand nineteen, they

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Speaker 1: were a team you can make money on. You could

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Speaker 1: see in the effort, you could see in the way

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Speaker 1: they were playing defense, you could see the way Brian

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Speaker 1: Flores was coaching. They were gonna be undervalued all year.

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Speaker 1: I felt that way about Carolina last year. I thought

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Speaker 1: we'd get a longer time period to enjoy some value

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Speaker 1: on Carolina. I thought we got I think we got

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Speaker 1: two weeks and that the ship is sailed on that

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Speaker 1: and it's gonna be funny looking back where not that

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Speaker 1: we're gonna say Carolina and Denver both gonna start three

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Speaker 1: and oh, but it's looking that way. One of these

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Speaker 1: teams is completely fall apart. Because you're looking at the schedule,

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Speaker 1: it goes, Okay, Denver is gonna be the Giants. They

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Speaker 1: beat the Jaguars, now they beat the Jets, and then

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Speaker 1: Carolina would beat the Texans, that would beat the Saints,

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Speaker 1: and they would beat the Jets. So it's, uh, it's

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Speaker 1: a hard it's hard to gage these three no teams

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Speaker 1: where Carolina or Denver, it's kind of pick your poison there.

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Speaker 1: One of these teams is gonna fall off massively. And

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Speaker 1: I actually feel more confident in this Carolina team just

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Speaker 1: because of the division they're in, where Denver they're in

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Speaker 1: no way harder division. So people are looking at either

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Speaker 1: team to ride in fade later on the season. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna definitely be fading Denver later in the year. Alright,

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Speaker 1: good to know this is gonna be one of the

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Speaker 1: most bad games of the day. Los Angeles Chargers at

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Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs. The Chargers are six and a half

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Speaker 1: point underdogs on the road at Kansas City, the first

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Speaker 1: game on the Sunday slate. Everything in my bones is

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Speaker 1: telling me I want to take the Chargers here. We

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Speaker 1: love the Chargers here. The Chiefs are a great teams.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna win a lot of games this year. Chiefs

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Speaker 1: don't cover, and they don't have a defense to cover

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Speaker 1: with that, they are always gonna be open to a

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Speaker 1: back door. This team could be run on, they can

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Speaker 1: be passed on. It's never wracking. I don't know what

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs are gonna do. They're always gonna be sucept

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Speaker 1: the role or a good run team. The Chargers coming

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Speaker 1: off last week, that kind of felt like one of

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Speaker 1: those again. The bounces just didn't go their way. They

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Speaker 1: score a touchdown to take a one to seventeen lead,

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Speaker 1: and they just allowed a touchdown and they go back.

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Speaker 1: I think you of missing the field goal. Cowboys drive

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Speaker 1: the field, they kick a field goal, they win the game.

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Speaker 1: It's sick name, but that's that's how it goes and

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Speaker 1: the Chargers team is not gonna be as bad as

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Speaker 1: the public diner precede them, and the Chiefs team is.

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Speaker 1: I do see them to bounce back and win this game.

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Speaker 1: This is way too big on a number. There should

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Speaker 1: have been four and a half. Especially in divisional game

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Speaker 1: you're getting two to three points, especially if this goes

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Speaker 1: back up to seven on this Chargers team. So it's

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Speaker 1: a pro pros versus Joe game. And as a professional

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Speaker 1: and advisional game, you take this big dog here, especially

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Speaker 1: when it has a quarterback that we believe in Herbert.

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Speaker 1: What do you have this rated app four and a half?

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Speaker 1: You do so, so it's it's one of my bigger

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Speaker 1: value games on the Kansas City is always a little

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Speaker 1: bit overvalued just because of my homes. He's he should

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Speaker 1: be overvalued. He's by far the best quarterback in the league.

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Speaker 1: Total on this is fifty five and a half. I

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Speaker 1: lean under because it's divisional where both these teams are

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Speaker 1: gonna know each I think last year when they played

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Speaker 1: each other, it was like a flukey game where um

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs one, like fifteen to fourteen. It was just

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Speaker 1: really low scoring back and forth. It was Herbert's first

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Speaker 1: like official start and uh they went toe to toe

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Speaker 1: last year and played down well. So again, I like

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Speaker 1: the way the Charges match up with this Chiefs team.

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Speaker 1: I will say that justin Herbert hasn't looked as good

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Speaker 1: as he did last year, meaning he made some pretty

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Speaker 1: bad mistakes in that Cowboys game interception in the end zone.

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Speaker 1: The week before, he had made bad mistakes against the

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Speaker 1: Washington Football team through an interception in the red zone

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Speaker 1: towards their goal line in against the Against the Cowboys,

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Speaker 1: they couldn't come back from it. Against the Washington Football team,

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Speaker 1: they got lucky and we're able to come back from it.

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Speaker 1: That doesn't have me a little bit concerned. It's not good,

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Speaker 1: there's no there's no word for that. But if you

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Speaker 1: look at his third down rate, though, there's few players

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Speaker 1: better than the league than if you have a third

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Speaker 1: and ten, he's gonna get you that first down. So

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Speaker 1: I'm just never gonna feel out of this game with

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Speaker 1: Herbert Herbert. Just again. There, I think they're won their

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Speaker 1: first game by four points and they lost last week

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Speaker 1: by three points. They're always gonna be in these games

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Speaker 1: because I do believe it was a quarterback. But yes,

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Speaker 1: these these red zone turnovers are nightmarish for Herbert backers.

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Speaker 1: Do we think this will be one of the games

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Speaker 1: that we're talking about on Sundays or five best? Are

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Speaker 1: we gonna two weeks in a row bet against the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs for our lungs? We might have to because if

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Speaker 1: you've just faded the Chiefs, I think it's like nine

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Speaker 1: last the nine last games they played and they have

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Speaker 1: not covered I believe, or maybe it's eight. Uh, they've

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Speaker 1: just been overvalued and Vegas is happy to do it

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Speaker 1: because the public keeps betting the Chiefs. So if this,

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Speaker 1: if this day is above four and a half five, Chad,

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Speaker 1: that's likely we're gonna have it in the contest. Oh,

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Speaker 1: brother man, it's so hard to bet the NFL. You

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Speaker 1: gotta bounce back so quickly. You can be depressed on

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Speaker 1: Sunday night. By Tuesday morning, you have to re railling.

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Speaker 1: If not Sunday night, you gotta be railing because these

287
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Speaker 1: lines are coming out. You gotta get the best of

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Speaker 1: the number. Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns, my beloved Bears

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00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:26,520
Speaker 1: on the road numbers barely moved seven and a half

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Speaker 1: point Dogs on the Road at Cleveland justin fields. We

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Speaker 1: hope he will be the starting quarterback. I thought he

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Speaker 1: looked great. I thought he made great throws. I thought

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Speaker 1: he did the typical things that rookies do, held on

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Speaker 1: to the ball too long. But he is so fucking

295
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Speaker 1: fast around that corner, and he can make the throws

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Speaker 1: that you need to make in the NFL accurate, not afraid,

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Speaker 1: um really strong arm. But this feels high. And then

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Speaker 1: and this number feels high to me, those are a

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Speaker 1: pro trap that we're walking right into. Because I immediately

300
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Speaker 1: saw this line, I loved it. Bears seven and a

301
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Speaker 1: half with this defense, I just feel corportal taking this team.

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Speaker 1: We were up twenty two three and we have to

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Speaker 1: sweat out twenty seventeen game because a couple of little

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Speaker 1: mistakes happened here and there in the fields. Interception in

305
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Speaker 1: his own back of the end zone. It's little things

306
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Speaker 1: like that and make you nervous with the Bears. But

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Speaker 1: just going strictly off the number, why why do I

308
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Speaker 1: don't know if it feels with a bookmakers know exactly

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Speaker 1: what they're doing making this seven and a half that

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Speaker 1: they know the public will happily take the seven a

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Speaker 1: half because people just don't believe in the Bears, and

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Speaker 1: they know the pros are happy to take this and

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Speaker 1: half they're both looking at this defense and they're saying

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Speaker 1: this defense can keep them in this game against Cleveland

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Speaker 1: where I don't really have faith in Baker. Baker is

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Speaker 1: not showing me in two games that he's really the

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Speaker 1: type of player to have faith in. And I think

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Speaker 1: a lot is going on there. We're not talking about

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Speaker 1: his head right now. This contract and it's I know,

320
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Speaker 1: it's like one of those things where people are like, oh,

321
00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:53,760
Speaker 1: he probably doesn't really care and think about the money.

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Speaker 1: I had to say, it kind of seems like he is.

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Speaker 1: He seems like he's pressing a little bit and he's

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Speaker 1: making throws that they're just not within this the ste

325
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Speaker 1: Fantski set up for him so it could be field

326
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Speaker 1: first start on the road. It's a little scary with that.

327
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Speaker 1: It's a rookie making his first start on the road.

328
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Speaker 1: But at seven and a half, this big of my number. Again,

329
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Speaker 1: I don't know if it's any where our best fives,

330
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Speaker 1: but I can promise you come Sunday, this is a

331
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Speaker 1: game I will be betting on for the Bears. What's

332
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Speaker 1: your number? Six? And a half, So it's not that

333
00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:22,280
Speaker 1: great a value. It's a it's a point, but still

334
00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:25,040
Speaker 1: that's that's that's a fair number. Six and a half.

335
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Speaker 1: I think as long as you're getting seven and a

336
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Speaker 1: half with the Bears, you kind of have to take it. Yeah,

337
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Speaker 1: I mean you're going through a key number. The point

338
00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:35,360
Speaker 1: going through a key number is worth considerably more than

339
00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:37,520
Speaker 1: it days if you're going from you know, a couple

340
00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:40,760
Speaker 1: of dead numbers, So that has to be taken into consideration.

341
00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:44,360
Speaker 1: This feels like a game. I almost want to put

342
00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:46,520
Speaker 1: it out in my head. I don't want to be

343
00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:48,560
Speaker 1: thinking about this game as a game we're gonna bet

344
00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:51,680
Speaker 1: because something about it doesn't feel right. But like there's

345
00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:55,280
Speaker 1: no instinctive edge. Everything you said is true. There's too

346
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Speaker 1: many going against both teams for me to feel like

347
00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:01,880
Speaker 1: I have it other than your number, which is a

348
00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:04,080
Speaker 1: point of value, But I'm not gonna feel that confident

349
00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:10,960
Speaker 1: about it. Very big challenge. Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars.

350
00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:16,040
Speaker 1: The overvalued Arizona Cardinals on the road, who opened his

351
00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:19,000
Speaker 1: two and a half point favorites against the Jags. Now

352
00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:22,280
Speaker 1: that number is at seven and a half. We are

353
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Speaker 1: going to be forced to bet the Jacksonville Jaguars again

354
00:17:25,840 --> 00:17:30,880
Speaker 1: as massive home underdogs against the team that was a

355
00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:33,280
Speaker 1: field goal away from being one and one. And when

356
00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:35,360
Speaker 1: there's not if that if that field goal goes in,

357
00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:40,920
Speaker 1: this number is probably six. Right, So, because that field

358
00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:43,320
Speaker 1: goal by the Vikings did not go in, there's numbers

359
00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:46,720
Speaker 1: now seven and a half. The Jags are terrible, like

360
00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:49,600
Speaker 1: urban Meyer is awful. He doesn't know what he's doing.

361
00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:54,320
Speaker 1: It was a disgusting display against the Broncos team that

362
00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:56,639
Speaker 1: should not have covered that game, a game that the

363
00:17:56,720 --> 00:18:01,040
Speaker 1: jack could have stolen. Tell me why I'm betting this game.

364
00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:04,040
Speaker 1: I'm so sorry people you have to do this, but

365
00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:09,080
Speaker 1: you have to bet the Jaguars. There. This is it's

366
00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:11,440
Speaker 1: not fun, it's not gonna be enjoyable game. But it's

367
00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:15,399
Speaker 1: just like the Colts last week. Even people that watched

368
00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:17,480
Speaker 1: that entire Colts game can't tell you how they covered

369
00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:19,879
Speaker 1: the three and a half against the Rams um but

370
00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:23,360
Speaker 1: they did. And that's the kind of same situation here

371
00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:26,639
Speaker 1: with the Jaguars. You have a home dog. Even me

372
00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:27,840
Speaker 1: and Cha I don't want to bet on this team

373
00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:30,120
Speaker 1: because we're so burned from them from last week. I mean,

374
00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:34,640
Speaker 1: ridiculous Trevor Lawrence. I should have stuck to my gut.

375
00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:36,679
Speaker 1: I remember watching that priests the game. I said, I

376
00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:39,000
Speaker 1: don't there's something about it. I don't like about hit

377
00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:44,119
Speaker 1: about Trevor Lawrence. And man, he was awful in that game.

378
00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:46,960
Speaker 1: I'll have to go through the numbers, but he had

379
00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:50,120
Speaker 1: one of the lowest, lowest accuracies of all the quarterbacks

380
00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:52,320
Speaker 1: the entire league. He had thrown some of the least

381
00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:56,200
Speaker 1: catchable balls all the quarterbacks in the league, and a

382
00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:59,440
Speaker 1: lot of red flags with urban Urban Meyers adjustments is

383
00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:03,200
Speaker 1: second half adjustments are just not good. Um, the man

384
00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:07,760
Speaker 1: truly might be overwhelmed here. So we are going to

385
00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:10,760
Speaker 1: talk about this game a lot. Um. I already know

386
00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:14,399
Speaker 1: this is gonna be you know this is This is

387
00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:16,600
Speaker 1: gonna typical games where I'm gonna hate it all week

388
00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:18,080
Speaker 1: and then probably end up putting a lot of money

389
00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:21,520
Speaker 1: on it comes Sunday. But as we sit here on Tuesday,

390
00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:24,320
Speaker 1: I cannot tell people to bet this game now. I

391
00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:28,720
Speaker 1: can't tell people put this in their best five picks. Um,

392
00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:30,760
Speaker 1: too too many things going on right now to really

393
00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:33,160
Speaker 1: bet this one where I took the seven a half

394
00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:34,959
Speaker 1: just because I'm worried I might go back to seven.

395
00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:37,600
Speaker 1: But now is the you know that was Sunday night,

396
00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:39,399
Speaker 1: now that it's Tuesday, and it's just sat there this

397
00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:41,480
Speaker 1: whole time. I don't think you need to rush to

398
00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:43,800
Speaker 1: take this number. So I wouldn't make it. My Sigmon

399
00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:47,040
Speaker 1: says game of the Day. We still got a signment,

400
00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:50,840
Speaker 1: says must Bet. I'm surprised. The Sigmon says, wasn't the Chargers.

401
00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:54,840
Speaker 1: To be honest, it was, But again, I don't want

402
00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:56,960
Speaker 1: to give these people say better right now because I

403
00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:59,160
Speaker 1: think again that could go up to seven. Again. It's

404
00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:01,439
Speaker 1: not only the Pros are gonna be bad in the Chargers,

405
00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:04,760
Speaker 1: it's that's that's the public's can becoming so heavy on

406
00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:07,359
Speaker 1: teasers on the Chiefs because again it's at six and

407
00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:09,479
Speaker 1: a half points now, so you have a six point teaser.

408
00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:11,520
Speaker 1: All you need is the Chiefs to win after they

409
00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:14,359
Speaker 1: just lost last week. A lot of traps chat, so

410
00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:16,639
Speaker 1: many traps. What if we think of the total on

411
00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,360
Speaker 1: the cards Jacks, it's uh fifty one and a half

412
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:23,000
Speaker 1: love the over? Uh I am a sucker for pain,

413
00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:24,680
Speaker 1: just like we took the over where the Vikings and

414
00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:26,320
Speaker 1: the car was last week. And I might have hit

415
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:33,159
Speaker 1: in the first half. Um Cardinals defense has problems. I

416
00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:35,679
Speaker 1: know they looked like they're all world against the Titans,

417
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:37,239
Speaker 1: but it looked like that was just the Titans kind

418
00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:40,159
Speaker 1: of beating up themselves. The Jaguars we've seen they can

419
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:42,800
Speaker 1: move the ball, and Trevor's Lawrence loves to turn the

420
00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:45,960
Speaker 1: ball over. So you gonna have a lot of short fields,

421
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:47,960
Speaker 1: a lot a lot of a lot of points scored

422
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:50,760
Speaker 1: in this matchup here. So I definitely will be on

423
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:52,240
Speaker 1: the over in this game. You know, if I know

424
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:53,800
Speaker 1: the public's are coming to have you on this over,

425
00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:56,679
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be right there with him. Yeah, right now

426
00:20:56,760 --> 00:21:01,800
Speaker 1: here over is getting ridiculous. The bets of the money

427
00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:04,080
Speaker 1: again a little early. You can discount the money a

428
00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:06,280
Speaker 1: little bit because it's a little could be a pro money,

429
00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:09,639
Speaker 1: but that is terrifying the money. That's never good. Sometimes

430
00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:11,119
Speaker 1: when we're doing this show, I feel a little bit

431
00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:14,480
Speaker 1: like Steve Cornaki or John King in front of the maps.

432
00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 1: More votes are gonna come in, It's gonna balance out.

433
00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:20,520
Speaker 1: That's kind of how I feel talking about the percentage

434
00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:22,800
Speaker 1: of money in bets on a Tuesday. As we head

435
00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 1: into a Sunday, Washington football team at Buffalo Bills. Wow,

436
00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:32,520
Speaker 1: this number opened at seven. After the bills dominating performance

437
00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:35,440
Speaker 1: against Miami, it's up to eight and a half. The

438
00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:38,600
Speaker 1: total is forty five and a half. Here's my concern

439
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:43,400
Speaker 1: the Washington football team. We were in love with their

440
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:46,439
Speaker 1: front four and their defense. It kind of looked like

441
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:49,399
Speaker 1: ship the first two weeks. Yeah, I hit the Bills

442
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:51,080
Speaker 1: right when it came out with the seven, but not

443
00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:53,920
Speaker 1: because of the defense. Because it's Heineke's first road start

444
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,920
Speaker 1: as a starter. Again, people forget this kid is undrafted,

445
00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,600
Speaker 1: undrafted quarterback. I love the way you play is uh.

446
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:02,679
Speaker 1: He had flashes in that game where he looks like

447
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,320
Speaker 1: a really good, comfortable quarterback, and these other moments where

448
00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:07,680
Speaker 1: he looks really bad. You're telling me this kid's making

449
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:10,600
Speaker 1: his first road start against the Bills, the Bills mafia

450
00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:13,520
Speaker 1: after that huge win last week. If they didn't blow

451
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:15,520
Speaker 1: out have such a big win last week, I'd be

452
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:17,760
Speaker 1: all over this one for us. That's something giving me,

453
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:20,199
Speaker 1: Paul is is it's never good to really take the

454
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:23,120
Speaker 1: team after they just won thirty five nothing. It's usually

455
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:25,600
Speaker 1: the following week it's not gonna be as easy for them.

456
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 1: But I have faith because I don't think Josh Allen

457
00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:31,440
Speaker 1: looked great against Miami fourteen points in the first half.

458
00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 1: He wasn't throwing and making huge plays over the field.

459
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:36,240
Speaker 1: This will be kind of a get right game for him.

460
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:38,400
Speaker 1: This is uh, like you just talked about. The Washington

461
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,720
Speaker 1: Front four hasn't really been doing much. It's just because

462
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 1: their secondaries looks so bad. I mean, Daniel Jones just

463
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 1: tore them up passing it. And now you have a

464
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:50,800
Speaker 1: way better version Josh Allen, who's everything the Giants changes

465
00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:53,639
Speaker 1: could dream Daniel Jones would be. So we'll wait and

466
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:55,320
Speaker 1: see if it comes down a little bit. But right now,

467
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:57,560
Speaker 1: that's one of my few favorites that I like with

468
00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:02,480
Speaker 1: the public here. I like the bills. The bills make

469
00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 1: me wallus out, get your files upthing town, throw your

470
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 1: hands up, then throw your hand back and throw all

471
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:12,399
Speaker 1: Now the bills. I'm thinking it happens now, but for

472
00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:16,440
Speaker 1: now we're not including it in our Winnow it down

473
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:19,640
Speaker 1: for Thursday before we winnow it down for Sunday because

474
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:21,800
Speaker 1: the numbers a little bit inflated. Yeah, and there's other

475
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 1: favorites we like. We're gonna like better. Oh, I didn't

476
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:26,720
Speaker 1: know that right now so far, Just to remind people,

477
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:28,639
Speaker 1: we're trying to narrow it down. We usually like to

478
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:32,000
Speaker 1: have six, seven eight games that we like heading into Thursday,

479
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 1: so we can come up with five after the Thursday

480
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 1: pod that we are focused in on, and then on

481
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 1: Sunday we'll really narrow it down because oftentimes some lines move,

482
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:45,879
Speaker 1: and on Sunday we decide what we like the best.

483
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:47,919
Speaker 1: I put those picks in the Action Network app so

484
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:52,680
Speaker 1: you can follow along there. Indianapolis Cults at Tennessee Titan's

485
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:57,159
Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts not looking good. Carson Wentz I still have

486
00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:59,440
Speaker 1: no idea why you've ever believed in him, even though

487
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,600
Speaker 1: they paid us this weekend. He's got two spraying ankles.

488
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 1: Who the hell knows what's gonna happen with them. They're

489
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:07,760
Speaker 1: five and a half point dogs on the road division

490
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:11,200
Speaker 1: game against the Titans. I think we misread these teams.

491
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:13,119
Speaker 1: I think the Titans are better than we thought. I

492
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:14,680
Speaker 1: think the Coals are gonna be worse than we thought.

493
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:16,960
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz is just not a good quarterback. He's on

494
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 1: his fourth string left tackle chat. I watched this game.

495
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,680
Speaker 1: He made every bad decision you commit he never makes

496
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:27,120
Speaker 1: a good decision. They scored twenty four points. But yeah,

497
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 1: he holds on the ball too long. He's an idiot.

498
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 1: I'm right there with you. He's still making mistakes that

499
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:36,119
Speaker 1: rookie quarterbacks make. Um. He has regressed completely from the

500
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 1: year he almost won the MVP. So I can't fault

501
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 1: you in what you're saying there is There is no

502
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:43,720
Speaker 1: defense of Carson once anymore. Another truck he played by me.

503
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:45,439
Speaker 1: I will be on the Titans here. I know. They

504
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 1: just had a big emotional win in Seattle. The coaches

505
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:50,119
Speaker 1: have a lot of issues. Man. You can say what

506
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:52,439
Speaker 1: you wanted about Carson. He was the best quarterback on

507
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 1: that roster. They're gonna take a step back of the

508
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:56,680
Speaker 1: quarterback position. Whoever they put in there. I don't know

509
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 1: if it's gonna be the rookie or the second year kid.

510
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:02,920
Speaker 1: Not good. Not good for the Colts and the total.

511
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 1: I liked it at first, like really heavy for the under.

512
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 1: But now because it's not gonna be Carson's making a

513
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,120
Speaker 1: little scared because, like you know, these young kids could

514
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:12,880
Speaker 1: come in here and just start turning the bowl over

515
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:16,200
Speaker 1: like we saw last week exactly what's had four interceptions. Um,

516
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:17,720
Speaker 1: that's why they give me pause. This was gonna be

517
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,160
Speaker 1: my bigger bets, this under because these guys usually play

518
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:23,640
Speaker 1: towards the under. So I'm gonna wait and see, um

519
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,520
Speaker 1: where this number ends up and what the quarterback situation is.

520
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 1: But uh, I don't really like either side that much

521
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:31,680
Speaker 1: in this. But my bigger bet and this would be

522
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:35,679
Speaker 1: definitely be towards the under. Did you see anything you know?

523
00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 1: I think we've misread the Titans a little bit. I

524
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 1: think they found some kind of success against the Seahawks.

525
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 1: The reaction over reaction. They were down fourteen and the

526
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:49,920
Speaker 1: fourth like they just had to. I mean, if there

527
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 1: wasn't taunting penalties, they never would have got back into

528
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:54,920
Speaker 1: this game. They got two first downs on one drive

529
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:58,359
Speaker 1: because of taunting penalties. So again, thanks just didn't bounce

530
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:00,920
Speaker 1: our way shadow, It's it's only weak too. Don't overreact you.

531
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 1: I'm not listen, I'm not overreacting. I'm reacting. There's a difference.

532
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:09,359
Speaker 1: There's a difference. I'm reacting and I'm also don't don't

533
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:12,920
Speaker 1: try to say to me that I'm panicking. I am

534
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 1: the least panicky. Come on, all right, everybody, and That's

535
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 1: what I'm talking about. Guys. We've made a great effort

536
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 1: so far. Let's just keep it off. That's right. We

537
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:24,400
Speaker 1: can't have anyone freak out out there. Okay, you've got

538
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:28,160
Speaker 1: a keymark a Polser. It's got too far, it's too much,

539
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:34,199
Speaker 1: too that panic. Literally you, I've never seen you be

540
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 1: more Joe public than when you text me Sunday night

541
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:38,720
Speaker 1: after the Ravens, when you said, funk we needed that.

542
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 1: I'm just like, there's sixteen more weeks, Chad, we don't

543
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,280
Speaker 1: need ship. We can go. I owe five the next

544
00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 1: couple of weeks. Yeah, I feel oh no, no, no,

545
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:50,400
Speaker 1: no listen, but it's like no, no, no, no, no no,

546
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:53,439
Speaker 1: don't add Joe cool for the podcast right now. I

547
00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 1: know even though you were sleeping Sunday night when I

548
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,879
Speaker 1: texted you, I know that you went to bed sweating

549
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:00,880
Speaker 1: and hoping. You tell next to me during the day

550
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 1: on Sunday, getting upset about certain games. I don't don't

551
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 1: act like you're above it all. I am, though. Literally,

552
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 1: you know what happened chat he threw up pick six

553
00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson, I bet more on the Ravens, and then

554
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:13,960
Speaker 1: I went to bed. You're right, I went to bed

555
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 1: and I got woken up by hundreds of people texting

556
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,880
Speaker 1: me saying thank you. So I didn't get your thank

557
00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 1: you text? I got thank god we didn't funk that up. Yeah,

558
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:27,399
Speaker 1: I forgot. Maybe my thank you text got lost in

559
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 1: the oh. Why the funk do we keep betting the Falcons?

560
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 1: When you said, when you said, by the way, good

561
00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:37,520
Speaker 1: good transition, when you said on Sunday morning, we're gonna

562
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 1: put the Falcons in our best five. And if they

563
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 1: don't do it again, if they if they do what

564
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:44,919
Speaker 1: they did the week before, if they lose again like

565
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:47,400
Speaker 1: they lost the week before, we never have to talk

566
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 1: about the Falcons again. On a self anointed by you

567
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:57,639
Speaker 1: Falcons podcast? Done with Them? Atlanta Falcons at New York

568
00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 1: Giants Falcons are plus three on the road. Here's the

569
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 1: thing I'm back in. How do we not take the

570
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:06,480
Speaker 1: Falcons here? How do we not take the Falcons in

571
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:09,920
Speaker 1: this game against a terrible Giants team and a terrible

572
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones. I'm pissed. We already missed the best of

573
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 1: the number. It was three and a half. I know three.

574
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 1: This is why I hate our job. We have to

575
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:18,960
Speaker 1: take the Falcons here this number should be three. We

576
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:20,800
Speaker 1: can wait maybe because of two and a half, and

577
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:22,439
Speaker 1: we can take the Giants and try to fade the

578
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,600
Speaker 1: public because I think everyone has the same mentality as you.

579
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 1: It's like this Giants team sucks. Everyone watched them Thursday night.

580
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 1: I don't know what to think of this Giants team

581
00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:33,160
Speaker 1: because it is the trap where Daniel Jones only plays

582
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:35,640
Speaker 1: good twice a year. It's Skins Washington football team. So

583
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,720
Speaker 1: I'm with you. Um, I like the Falcons here, but

584
00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 1: I refuse to put them in our contests or our

585
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,320
Speaker 1: best five. It doesn't matter if they're they're there, if

586
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:47,720
Speaker 1: they're underdog by thirty points to the Jets. We're not

587
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:50,080
Speaker 1: doing it until we see them actually show any signs

588
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 1: of life. But it is the right side right now.

589
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 1: By the way, the percentage of the bets and the

590
00:28:56,280 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 1: percentage of the money is all on the Falcons. Agree

591
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:03,240
Speaker 1: with you. We're gonna the Giants then, yeah, yeah, Like

592
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 1: this game is gonna the number is gonna drop, it's

593
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 1: gonna go into three. At that point you got about

594
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 1: the Giants, Thank god, because I really don't want it better.

595
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 1: Like that was. I literally collapsed when they when you

596
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 1: threw that second pick six, I go, why what is happening?

597
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 1: And the guy hadn't thrown a pick in like six

598
00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 1: weeks and you threw two picks six in the same

599
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 1: game you collapsed. Why why are you getting so upset?

600
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 1: We got sixty more weeks. What are you getting upset

601
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 1: about it? Because I bet real money. I bet real money.

602
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:37,040
Speaker 1: Don't pull your double standard on me. Okay, you panicked

603
00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 1: with the Falcons. It made you upset. I was excited

604
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 1: about the Ravens. I stayed up way past my bedtime

605
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 1: to watch it because I knew that my karma, my

606
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 1: good will could could bring them to victory. And it happened.

607
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 1: You're welcome. I did that for you, even after you

608
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,480
Speaker 1: bet more money on the money line on the Ravens,

609
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 1: because that's what I do. I want us both to win.

610
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 1: You didn't need to watch it, though I told you

611
00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:00,080
Speaker 1: that was a guaranteed winner. That's right. I forgot about that.

612
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots, the Saints on

613
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 1: the road. Oh my god, this game has so much drama.

614
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:12,360
Speaker 1: You've got Sean Payton, Bill Parcel's disciple, Bill Belichick, Bill

615
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 1: Parcel's disciple, Sean Payton offensive genius. A coach is coach,

616
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 1: a guy that everybody loves. Bill Belichick defensive genius, a

617
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 1: guy that everybody hates playing with a quarterback who makes

618
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 1: no mistakes, doesn't throw the ball downfield against the quarterback

619
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 1: who always throws the ball downfield, even into quadruple coverage,

620
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 1: and he's falling backwards and he's on one leg and

621
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 1: can't see where he's throwing it. Things plus three. I

622
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 1: really like the Saints. No, I hate this game. I

623
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 1: hate the whole thing. Okay, yeah, I was gonna I

624
00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 1: just don't think we're gonna take this because it feels

625
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 1: like a really smart number. I had this game at three.

626
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:48,640
Speaker 1: I just go towards the home team here and I'll

627
00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 1: be on the Patriots. Um, but this isn't very I

628
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 1: don't see a lot of value in this game. Either

629
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 1: team could truly win this. Jamis Winston though, Wow, he

630
00:30:57,680 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 1: really really looked bad against Carolina. I know he's not

631
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 1: that bad, but kind of gave me like PTSD flashbacks

632
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 1: to his days in the Pampa Bay and it's like, Okay,

633
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 1: maybe we maybe we did think. Um, he'sn't exactly who

634
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:11,479
Speaker 1: we thought he was. I think he'll be better than

635
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 1: he was against Carolina. But we have to trust Belichick

636
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 1: at home here with this defense that he has his

637
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 1: guys ready for this kind of matchup. So we'll we'll

638
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 1: take the Patriots, but there's not much value in this

639
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 1: line total is forty one and a half. Tiny, tiny number.

640
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 1: The Patriots have played with the under in two games

641
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 1: so far this year, about the same number. Saint or

642
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 1: tune out to the under as well. Yeah, but they

643
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 1: also scored thirty eight points in one game. Yeah, but

644
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 1: luckily Green Bay scored three. Yeah. Yeah, like the under.

645
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 1: But it's it's these load totals are always scarier. I

646
00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 1: don't I don't put a lot on them. But this

647
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 1: is this is a good under matchup where Winston cannot

648
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:53,720
Speaker 1: show up again, and we just haven't seen mac Jones

649
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 1: really show that he can score a lot of points.

650
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:56,840
Speaker 1: He kind of just seems to be a game manager,

651
00:31:56,960 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 1: not the kind of guy that's gonna be thrown it

652
00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 1: downfield a lot so well, or not even throw it downfield.

653
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 1: I mean, and he's not he's not taking the chances

654
00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 1: to throw downfield. He's only looking for the checkdowns, the underneath,

655
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:12,479
Speaker 1: the five yards instead of trying to get for fifty yards. Well,

656
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 1: it was interesting because he did have a couple of

657
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:15,960
Speaker 1: different times like when I watched the game, but he

658
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 1: did and a deep deep throw, he didn't wait on it.

659
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 1: He just took the easy checkdown and White or you

660
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 1: just like you just said, he's taking a lower throat.

661
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:26,400
Speaker 1: So maybe that's more about Max just not trying to

662
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 1: lose the game than win the game. I think it's

663
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 1: the instruction that he's getting. Yeah. Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions. Alright,

664
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:38,080
Speaker 1: so the Lions played last night. It's Tuesday afternoon. We're

665
00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 1: looking at the Ravens visiting the Lions. Ravens right now,

666
00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 1: looks like they're about seven and a half. I'm seeing

667
00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:50,720
Speaker 1: a nine out there, but consensus line line at FanDuel

668
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 1: Ravens minus seven and a half. Look, this Lions team

669
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 1: is really interesting. They're playing with a lot more energy

670
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 1: and passion and less incompetence so far in two halves

671
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 1: then I thought we'd see but then in two other

672
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 1: halves they're completely incompetent. Right. The second half of the

673
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 1: Niners game amazing, The first half of the Packers game amazing.

674
00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:18,440
Speaker 1: Second half of the Packers game, first half of the

675
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 1: Niners game. They look like a team coach by a

676
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 1: guy who wants to bite kneecaps. So this team is Detroit.

677
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 1: We're gonna kick you in the teeth, and when you

678
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 1: punch this, we're gonna smile at you. And when you

679
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 1: knock us down, we're gonna get up. And on the

680
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 1: way up, we're gonna buy a knee cap off. All right,

681
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:35,240
Speaker 1: We're gonna take your other knee cap. Before long, we're

682
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 1: theyre going to be the last one standing. We finally

683
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:41,720
Speaker 1: get to see the Ravens play a bad team. It's

684
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:45,000
Speaker 1: been two weeks. They played Oakland, who Las Vegas Raiders

685
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:47,560
Speaker 1: who turned up to be a good team. Uh, they

686
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 1: played the Chiefs, so we all think is a good team.

687
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 1: Now they finally get the lines, so we all know

688
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 1: kind of suck. And we've seen it last year, the

689
00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 1: year before, the year before that. Lamar destroys bad teams.

690
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 1: So it's interesting where this betting is kind of split

691
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:03,960
Speaker 1: a little bit. I think it's like right below six

692
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 1: of um the money and the bets coming in on

693
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 1: the Ravens. Interesting where I thought more people would be

694
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:13,319
Speaker 1: on the Ravens after such a big win. But I

695
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:15,279
Speaker 1: guess people really do like what they saw the Lines

696
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 1: that said they could be competitive game. Um, I think

697
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 1: it's the other way. I think the Ravens kind of

698
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 1: a turn the corner there. People people gave it too much.

699
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:25,319
Speaker 1: We're like, oh, look they look like they won their

700
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. Look how excited and half they are like

701
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 1: going crazy. It's like, I mean, we didn't we just

702
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 1: see that with Las Vegas. We might have put too

703
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 1: much into that where it's like, look at that when

704
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 1: they had over the Ravens and they went into Pittsburgh

705
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 1: and just absolutely dominated. I just want to put too

706
00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 1: much into them celebrating um like other people are. I

707
00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 1: think that doesn't really matter as much, so as long

708
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:45,759
Speaker 1: as just stays below what I haven't that I have

709
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:47,880
Speaker 1: at nine and a half, I like this number for

710
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:52,759
Speaker 1: the Ravens. Um. The Lines are a good team that

711
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:55,839
Speaker 1: can can do something like do things where other teams

712
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:57,400
Speaker 1: aren't gonna be able to handle. Where they have a

713
00:34:57,440 --> 00:34:59,200
Speaker 1: big D line and they have a big old line.

714
00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:01,560
Speaker 1: The Ravens a pretty much fil the exact same way,

715
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:05,760
Speaker 1: but they have Lamar Jackson running that offense. So I love,

716
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:10,600
Speaker 1: I love, love love UM the ravensurance. We'll talk about Thursday.

717
00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:12,160
Speaker 1: This might be one of our survivor picks because the

718
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:14,719
Speaker 1: Ravens don't have that many easy games coming up this year.

719
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:19,880
Speaker 1: This goes against everything you believe in. Yeah, with home dogs,

720
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:23,320
Speaker 1: can't always can't always think. It's like we got smacked

721
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 1: around last week about those home dogs where it was like,

722
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 1: I I told you before our games you've kicked off,

723
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:29,880
Speaker 1: I said, Chad, I have way too many I have

724
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:32,400
Speaker 1: way too much skewed to where these home teams I

725
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 1: think that road teams I'm gonna eleven of five against

726
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:37,000
Speaker 1: the spread. Um, I just don't get caught with that

727
00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:40,279
Speaker 1: same situation where it goes, Okay, Detroit his home. They

728
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 1: have good fans, but does that really make that much

729
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 1: of a difference to this. Probably not. They don't there

730
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 1: The Detroit fan base has been through enough. Um It's

731
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 1: it's one of those where I need to kind of

732
00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 1: pull back my fan theory that the fans really dictate

733
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 1: and can change a game where it doesn't really look

734
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 1: that way. It looks like these teams are just as

735
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:01,279
Speaker 1: fine running a silent snap. County are snapping it out

736
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:04,359
Speaker 1: the line. So I know you're I know you're staying here, chat.

737
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:06,960
Speaker 1: I do love taking home dogs. But we can't take

738
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 1: aby home dog, right we we we gotta fade some

739
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:12,360
Speaker 1: of them. We can't take every home dog, but fading

740
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:16,360
Speaker 1: like a near a home dog more than a touchdown,

741
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:19,920
Speaker 1: no joke. I don't think we've ever done that. I

742
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 1: think like we we laugh at people who do that.

743
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 1: You're calling me a square This is a square play.

744
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 1: We deal with the Patriots against the Jets last year.

745
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 1: I believe that one b fuck you and your memory

746
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 1: right now, I should put a circle in a square

747
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 1: around Baltimore and added to our list of potential games

748
00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:43,399
Speaker 1: along with the Chargers plus six and a half and

749
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 1: the Jags plus seven and a half. That is a big,

750
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:49,880
Speaker 1: big number to be taking for the Baltimore Ravens on

751
00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:52,120
Speaker 1: a short week on the road as more than a

752
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:54,800
Speaker 1: touchdown favorite. We still have not gotten to the Simon

753
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:57,880
Speaker 1: says that I'm very excited to see what that is.

754
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:00,399
Speaker 1: By the way, the total in this game forty nine

755
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 1: and a half, over over over over lines. They can

756
00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:07,360
Speaker 1: actually put up some points. I know they kind of

757
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:09,880
Speaker 1: spun their tires there. They only scored. They scored seventeen.

758
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 1: The first half and then zero in the second half.

759
00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 1: They still look good moving the ball up and down

760
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 1: the field. I think golf still makes the right decision

761
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:18,840
Speaker 1: around then. And we love Lamar against bad teams. The

762
00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:23,359
Speaker 1: guy just scres so many points. Love the matchup Cincinnati

763
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:28,120
Speaker 1: Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers. So the Bengals are four and

764
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:32,919
Speaker 1: a half point underdogs here, Steelers getting everything right now

765
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:36,040
Speaker 1: again early, A lot of precincts to report, but Steelers

766
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 1: getting all the money, all the bets. This is my

767
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:43,960
Speaker 1: signmon says play of the week. Oh God, Simon signs,

768
00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:50,359
Speaker 1: do it? We do what science says? Oh my god,

769
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:52,279
Speaker 1: I was I was so afraid you were going to

770
00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 1: say that. I am my God. Give your logic, give

771
00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:00,640
Speaker 1: me some data, give me something I can hang my

772
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:04,040
Speaker 1: hat on, Give me a reason to believe. There's a

773
00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:06,880
Speaker 1: lot of trends that do go towards the Bengals side.

774
00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:09,640
Speaker 1: But the biggest, the biggest glaring thing to me is

775
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:11,880
Speaker 1: just the injuries for the Steelers. Uh. They had a

776
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:14,280
Speaker 1: couple of guys get here on the offensive line, TJ.

777
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 1: Watts hurt. They had another guy go down the defense,

778
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:20,400
Speaker 1: I think Deante Johnson. The roar receiver got hurt as well.

779
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 1: This Bengal team is not that good. I'm with people,

780
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 1: but neither is Pittsburgh. That the offense has major issues.

781
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:31,279
Speaker 1: And I've seen it with again, we talked all the time.

782
00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 1: I thought the Bengals made a big mistake taking the

783
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:36,319
Speaker 1: wide receiver over the offensive ligneman. He's been sacked nine

784
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:39,480
Speaker 1: times now, Joe Burrow through two weeks. That is not good. Okay,

785
00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:42,120
Speaker 1: this guy's coming off major injury. Now he's been sacked

786
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:44,719
Speaker 1: two weeks in a row. But what I did see

787
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:46,759
Speaker 1: from him is that that never die attitude where this

788
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 1: kid's gonna keep slugging, He's gonna keep throwing. This offense

789
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 1: can move the ball, and I like it that they

790
00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:54,239
Speaker 1: can move the ball much better than this Pittsburgh tea

791
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 1: where Pittsburgh is kind of feeling like they're one dimensional.

792
00:38:56,480 --> 00:38:58,879
Speaker 1: They really depend on this run game and doing play

793
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:01,919
Speaker 1: action pass off that run game. Bengals don't have that problem.

794
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 1: Joe bro can sling the ball up and down the

795
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:06,440
Speaker 1: field with ease. So four and a half in a

796
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:10,239
Speaker 1: divisional game when this number should just be three. I do.

797
00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:12,600
Speaker 1: I really like the Bengals here chat. So this this

798
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:14,600
Speaker 1: for me is my my Simon says, player of the week.

799
00:39:15,600 --> 00:39:18,400
Speaker 1: Do you have a power rated at three? Yea at

800
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:21,719
Speaker 1: a power rated three. What are the trends you've seen

801
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:25,839
Speaker 1: that you like. I saw a trend that I really

802
00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:28,080
Speaker 1: like that was about teams that lost that are now

803
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:30,359
Speaker 1: playing a road game, so it's back to back road games.

804
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:32,799
Speaker 1: For the second game is the divisional game. So it

805
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:34,759
Speaker 1: was something like that. I had to check that labs

806
00:39:34,760 --> 00:39:37,600
Speaker 1: again because I saw it um Monday morning, but I

807
00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:40,279
Speaker 1: might in fifty percent of the time and the divisional thing,

808
00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 1: the team wins outright, and then it was like sixty

809
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:46,000
Speaker 1: five percent time they cover. So this is one of

810
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 1: these do we just like taking the divisional road team

811
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:50,040
Speaker 1: here because this nine should be a much smaller than

812
00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 1: it is. But the public just saw since then I

813
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 1: lay a huge egg against the Bears and with Pittsburgh,

814
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:58,279
Speaker 1: people still believe it. Like I, I kind of got

815
00:39:58,320 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 1: caught up in the hype as well, where it's like, man,

816
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:03,480
Speaker 1: this defense, they're they're a real game changer. But with

817
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:06,200
Speaker 1: all the injuries. I mean again, t J. Watt, that's

818
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 1: that's by far their best player on their team. He

819
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 1: was all over Josh Allen that Buffalo matchup without him,

820
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 1: without Buddy Pree who left for a different team. That's

821
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:18,360
Speaker 1: just that's too much for the Pittsburgh overcome. Jesus Christ,

822
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:31,800
Speaker 1: this makes me sick. When's what's this is when betting

823
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:35,480
Speaker 1: is the grossest, It's just terrible. All right, We're heading

824
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 1: into a late afternoon games. First up, New York Jets

825
00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:48,440
Speaker 1: at Denver Broncos best in the league, Teddy covers Bridgewater.

826
00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:52,840
Speaker 1: The look aheadline on this just saying, folks, the look aheadline,

827
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 1: which is the line that was posted a couple of

828
00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:57,360
Speaker 1: weeks ago. It was five and a half. This line

829
00:40:57,360 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 1: is now ten and a half. God, I want to

830
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:04,160
Speaker 1: take the Jets so bad, like so bad can we?

831
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:08,279
Speaker 1: Luckily I made this line ten um, so the the

832
00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 1: sharps have come in. They bed it down from eleven

833
00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 1: and a half to ten and a half. Now I

834
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:14,399
Speaker 1: don't need to touch it. I'll hopefully this can listen.

835
00:41:14,440 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 1: Number We'll get to ten so I can finally take

836
00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 1: Denver and at worst case maybe get a Bush. But

837
00:41:19,480 --> 00:41:22,800
Speaker 1: everything points to Denver. Here Denvers d line alone, excuse

838
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:25,960
Speaker 1: this game totally. Where the Jets have right now the

839
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:29,120
Speaker 1: great out is the third worst old line Zach Wilson

840
00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:31,680
Speaker 1: just being put into the worst of the worst situation.

841
00:41:32,640 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 1: Someone was talking about why why didn't the Jets just

842
00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:38,719
Speaker 1: keep Donald and then drafted pieces around them? Okay, you

843
00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:41,600
Speaker 1: guys needed alignement, you need a wide receivers. There's so

844
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:44,920
Speaker 1: many things lacking where no matter what rookie quarterback theyre

845
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:47,080
Speaker 1: brought in there, they just haven't put them in the

846
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:50,719
Speaker 1: best the best position to win. And this, this is

847
00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 1: a very big number. But this again, this sing these

848
00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:54,839
Speaker 1: teams were mean you were gonna talk about taking Denver

849
00:41:54,920 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 1: for Survivor because this is a great, great opportunity their

850
00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:02,600
Speaker 1: first home game. Like ainst the Jets, I cannot see

851
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:06,200
Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewall and Denver losing this game. So we we

852
00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:07,919
Speaker 1: will be on the number if he gets to tend.

853
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 1: But we will definitely be you know, this is probably

854
00:42:10,280 --> 00:42:13,840
Speaker 1: our top two we'll talk about for our Survivor picks. Yeah,

855
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:16,839
Speaker 1: we're just gonna this will not be in the conversation

856
00:42:16,920 --> 00:42:19,560
Speaker 1: for our final five. No, it's too big, too big.

857
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders. The Miami Dolphins, who

858
00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:30,680
Speaker 1: have broken our heart are four point dogs. I'm incredibly

859
00:42:30,719 --> 00:42:34,319
Speaker 1: disenchanted by this team, right now, really, I love Miami here,

860
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:37,640
Speaker 1: I need help chat. I know, I know, we don't

861
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:40,160
Speaker 1: even know if he's going to be playing quarterback for them.

862
00:42:40,239 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 1: Who's gonna be paying for the Las Vegas Raiders their car?

863
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,880
Speaker 1: This he might be actually hurt. And I jumped on

864
00:42:46,920 --> 00:42:48,840
Speaker 1: this a four and a half just for that exact reason.

865
00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:51,279
Speaker 1: I took the money line as well from Miami. He

866
00:42:51,360 --> 00:42:52,840
Speaker 1: might be pretty banged up and they might not be

867
00:42:52,960 --> 00:42:56,040
Speaker 1: letting onto how serious his injury is. Jacoby were set.

868
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:58,880
Speaker 1: He's healthy. I mean, he's not good for Miami, but

869
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 1: he is healthy. Um, ugly, ugly game. I know I'm

870
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:04,600
Speaker 1: gonna have a hard time commits you to put this

871
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 1: in our five. But this is a classic overreaction. Miami

872
00:43:08,200 --> 00:43:10,600
Speaker 1: is not as bad as they looked against Buffalo. Um,

873
00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:14,040
Speaker 1: everything just went wrong in that game. Las Vegas isn't

874
00:43:14,040 --> 00:43:15,799
Speaker 1: as good as people think they are. Are we sure

875
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:18,000
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is really that good? Or they just get lucky

876
00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:20,440
Speaker 1: against Buffalo and they had a block punt and Josh

877
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:23,480
Speaker 1: Allen just couldn't figure it out a lot. It's it's

878
00:43:23,520 --> 00:43:27,480
Speaker 1: just a big kind of um, not that egg on

879
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:29,560
Speaker 1: my face, but this is like a this is truly

880
00:43:29,560 --> 00:43:32,200
Speaker 1: a PROS game. No, no one else is betting Miami

881
00:43:32,280 --> 00:43:34,640
Speaker 1: unless they're a professional better. No, no one that watched

882
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:37,239
Speaker 1: football last week is gonna say themselves, Oh no, this

883
00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 1: is the time to take Miami against Las Vegas. Like

884
00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:42,440
Speaker 1: Las Vegas people, this is you've you've heard the hype.

885
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:44,400
Speaker 1: People are really starting to get all in on this

886
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:47,279
Speaker 1: Las Vegas team now that they're doing a I have

887
00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:49,319
Speaker 1: to stick the numbers, and I made this number three.

888
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:52,200
Speaker 1: I leaned towards three and a half. If it's per set,

889
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:54,200
Speaker 1: that's like the scary part. There's not that much of

890
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:57,560
Speaker 1: a drop off between him and tua Um, but it's

891
00:43:58,160 --> 00:44:00,919
Speaker 1: it's just too much overvalue with the Las Vegas team.

892
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:05,239
Speaker 1: They they are a very good, well oiled team, but

893
00:44:05,400 --> 00:44:08,480
Speaker 1: are they that good that this Miami defense, which we

894
00:44:08,520 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 1: talked about their strength, is that secondary. Going against a

895
00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 1: team that their strength is their passing offense, it usually

896
00:44:14,160 --> 00:44:17,560
Speaker 1: favorites towards that um towards that team with Miami. So

897
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:20,799
Speaker 1: I will wait and see what this one chat. I

898
00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:23,319
Speaker 1: won't make you make a decision right now, but we

899
00:44:23,440 --> 00:44:24,759
Speaker 1: like this a lot of four or four and a

900
00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:30,680
Speaker 1: half with Miami. Simon says, absolutely bet the Bengals, and

901
00:44:30,680 --> 00:44:33,600
Speaker 1: then he comes back and says, Hey, by the way,

902
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:36,200
Speaker 1: I also think I want you to take the quarterback

903
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:40,880
Speaker 1: list Miami Dolphins who basically got shut out against the

904
00:44:40,880 --> 00:44:44,479
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills at home. You want me to take them

905
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:49,160
Speaker 1: on the road at Las Vegas. As I think about it,

906
00:44:49,200 --> 00:44:51,720
Speaker 1: couldn't make more sense. I'm not a buyer on the Raiders.

907
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:55,759
Speaker 1: I I haven't been impressed, Like I don't love them

908
00:44:55,800 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 1: as a as a I haven't been impressed with how

909
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:02,560
Speaker 1: the Raiders are coached. Gruden usually falls apart the second

910
00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:04,600
Speaker 1: half of the season, so it might be we might

911
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:06,200
Speaker 1: be a little too early to the party, be trying

912
00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:09,279
Speaker 1: to fade him. Um, but man, have we seen it

913
00:45:09,400 --> 00:45:11,279
Speaker 1: his is I think it's the last three years he's

914
00:45:11,280 --> 00:45:13,840
Speaker 1: coached them, they have just fallen apart in the second

915
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:16,359
Speaker 1: half of the season. That's why I'm still fine with

916
00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:19,520
Speaker 1: thinking that. You know, our our our biggest Derrick Car

917
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:22,480
Speaker 1: investment was we we made staking LEAs bet then when

918
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:24,600
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl because we thought Watson was going there.

919
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:27,440
Speaker 1: But then we like, we like Car coming to the year.

920
00:45:27,480 --> 00:45:29,120
Speaker 1: We bet him for his over of yards and I

921
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:30,840
Speaker 1: think he's like up a hundred right now and the

922
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 1: closest guy in yards past this season. So we we

923
00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:36,880
Speaker 1: are we are fans of Las Vegas Raiders, but in

924
00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:38,880
Speaker 1: this game, this matchup, this is too big of a

925
00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:41,080
Speaker 1: number for a team like this, so we we will

926
00:45:41,080 --> 00:45:44,600
Speaker 1: will be on them. What do you have up? Like

927
00:45:44,640 --> 00:45:46,239
Speaker 1: I said, I headed at three when it was to

928
00:45:46,520 --> 00:45:47,719
Speaker 1: h and then moved up to three and a half

929
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:49,840
Speaker 1: when it came out. That's probably be brus set um

930
00:45:50,080 --> 00:45:52,080
Speaker 1: because I think two has bruised lungs or something like

931
00:45:52,080 --> 00:45:55,160
Speaker 1: that brew rib cage. So it's uh, it's not looking

932
00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:58,279
Speaker 1: good for two of playing in this game. This next game,

933
00:45:58,600 --> 00:46:03,760
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneer at Los Angeles Rams. This game opened

934
00:46:03,880 --> 00:46:07,279
Speaker 1: with the Buccaneers is one point underdogs. It was a

935
00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:10,080
Speaker 1: big to do in the sports betting world. The Buccaneers

936
00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:13,120
Speaker 1: are now one point in favorites. So much fun. This

937
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:15,439
Speaker 1: is by far the most fun game of the year. Right, Yes,

938
00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:19,520
Speaker 1: this is the best best matchup. The two most hyped

939
00:46:19,600 --> 00:46:21,960
Speaker 1: up teams right now in the NFC are the Rams

940
00:46:22,400 --> 00:46:26,359
Speaker 1: and the Buccaneers for good reason. Um wow, that's that's

941
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:28,839
Speaker 1: surprising it's moved that much Because I was gonna say

942
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:31,360
Speaker 1: my favorite stat, Tom Brady, I think He's and twelve

943
00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:35,680
Speaker 1: as an underdog against the spread. I love that. Uh,

944
00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:37,520
Speaker 1: you know we're doing here, Chad. We gotta take the

945
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:41,400
Speaker 1: Rams home dog. Public's coming in. Have you on the

946
00:46:41,400 --> 00:46:44,640
Speaker 1: Buccaneers the same reason I like Atlanta last week? There

947
00:46:44,760 --> 00:46:47,520
Speaker 1: there's a lot of holes and weaknesses on this Buccaneers

948
00:46:47,560 --> 00:46:49,560
Speaker 1: team in that secondary. They've just been banged up in

949
00:46:49,560 --> 00:46:53,160
Speaker 1: that position. It's just bad luck right now. So the

950
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:55,680
Speaker 1: run scheme, the past scheme that the Rams are gonna

951
00:46:55,719 --> 00:46:58,359
Speaker 1: do against our front line of the Buccaneers will make

952
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:01,200
Speaker 1: the big difference. But the big swin Stafford. I just

953
00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:05,760
Speaker 1: have faith in Stafford. With Cooper Cup, with Robert woods Man,

954
00:47:06,200 --> 00:47:07,920
Speaker 1: they just look like a well older machine right now

955
00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:09,480
Speaker 1: with the Rams. And that last week that was a

956
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:11,120
Speaker 1: trap game. They should have lost that game. If that

957
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:12,920
Speaker 1: was Jared Golf, they would have lost that game, no

958
00:47:12,920 --> 00:47:15,480
Speaker 1: doubt in my mind. But we've seen Stafford us a

959
00:47:15,520 --> 00:47:18,360
Speaker 1: difference maker for this team right now. So we know

960
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:21,320
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers are gonna aren't going undefeated. They just aren't.

961
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:23,280
Speaker 1: Last year they were the fifth seed for good reason.

962
00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:25,640
Speaker 1: They just dropped games every now and then it feels

963
00:47:25,640 --> 00:47:27,640
Speaker 1: the game they're gonna drop and the fact the public's

964
00:47:27,680 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 1: come in so heavy on them. It's even more of reasons.

965
00:47:30,719 --> 00:47:33,200
Speaker 1: I really like the Rams here. So I won't make

966
00:47:33,280 --> 00:47:36,120
Speaker 1: you say right now, Chad, but you know you like

967
00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:39,000
Speaker 1: this for one of our five. This is just again

968
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:41,359
Speaker 1: a pros versus show's game. The pros are all gonna

969
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 1: be on the Rams here, So I won't make you

970
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:46,200
Speaker 1: make decision now, but come Thursday, I'm probably gonna make

971
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:49,880
Speaker 1: you make one. I don't actually mind this one, You

972
00:47:49,960 --> 00:47:52,800
Speaker 1: don't know. I mean, look, I'm not a believer in Stafford,

973
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:55,319
Speaker 1: yet I think he still makes bad decisions, and I

974
00:47:55,360 --> 00:47:59,040
Speaker 1: think that there will be a thrower to no matter

975
00:47:59,080 --> 00:48:01,840
Speaker 1: how bad the Bucks set. And there is where Stafford

976
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:05,280
Speaker 1: sort of forgets the context of the game. I still

977
00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:07,680
Speaker 1: think getting the Rams, who are a solid team all

978
00:48:07,680 --> 00:48:10,360
Speaker 1: the way around and have a great pass rusher and

979
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:14,600
Speaker 1: Aaron Donald and a great all world defensive back in

980
00:48:14,680 --> 00:48:17,279
Speaker 1: Jalen Ramsey, this is this is a good play as

981
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:19,160
Speaker 1: an underdog, and it might even go higher. It could

982
00:48:19,200 --> 00:48:21,200
Speaker 1: get to one and a half. You don't know, I

983
00:48:21,320 --> 00:48:24,640
Speaker 1: like this play. Let's let's uh, let's put on your

984
00:48:24,680 --> 00:48:27,480
Speaker 1: list that as one of our guaranteed five. I've boxed it.

985
00:48:28,000 --> 00:48:31,320
Speaker 1: I don't know guaranteed, but I've definitely boxed it. Um

986
00:48:31,480 --> 00:48:35,839
Speaker 1: totals fifty five. That's a big lean towards the over.

987
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:37,640
Speaker 1: But I won't make a play on this most like

988
00:48:37,680 --> 00:48:41,640
Speaker 1: that's that's that's a little rich from my Seattle Seahawks

989
00:48:41,680 --> 00:48:52,360
Speaker 1: at Minnesota Vikings. I gotta say it, Minnesota Vikings. The

990
00:48:52,400 --> 00:48:56,480
Speaker 1: Seahawks are one and a half two point favorites. The

991
00:48:56,600 --> 00:49:05,000
Speaker 1: Vikings as a home fields juicy and delicious. I would

992
00:49:05,000 --> 00:49:06,840
Speaker 1: love to call a free money, but it's Kirk Cousins,

993
00:49:06,880 --> 00:49:09,080
Speaker 1: so I had to be careful with what I say.

994
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:11,840
Speaker 1: But it is the right side. You bet this every

995
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:16,600
Speaker 1: time people, every time we have Minnesota coming off two

996
00:49:16,600 --> 00:49:20,520
Speaker 1: games on the road, they are so incredibly better against

997
00:49:20,560 --> 00:49:24,000
Speaker 1: the spread at home under Zimmer everything the defense always

998
00:49:24,040 --> 00:49:27,239
Speaker 1: plays better, the offense always plays better. That place is

999
00:49:27,280 --> 00:49:30,320
Speaker 1: going to be allowed. Love it, love it, love it,

1000
00:49:30,400 --> 00:49:32,920
Speaker 1: love it. Um. I get white. People have been Seattle.

1001
00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:35,480
Speaker 1: You expect Seattle bounce back after that embarrassing loss. I

1002
00:49:35,560 --> 00:49:39,280
Speaker 1: think they were like uh fift oh or something crazy

1003
00:49:39,280 --> 00:49:41,759
Speaker 1: like that. In Seattle when they have a fourteen point

1004
00:49:41,880 --> 00:49:44,000
Speaker 1: lead or fifteen point lead late in the fourth, I'm

1005
00:49:44,000 --> 00:49:46,440
Speaker 1: gonna fade that bounce back. I think Minnesota actually bounce

1006
00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:48,960
Speaker 1: back after that missfield goal, or we could be completely

1007
00:49:48,960 --> 00:49:51,719
Speaker 1: wrong in Minnesota's season is completely tanked because of that

1008
00:49:51,800 --> 00:49:54,239
Speaker 1: missfield goal, like their team just given up. But we

1009
00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:57,239
Speaker 1: have to take Minnesota at home their first game at home.

1010
00:49:57,320 --> 00:50:00,360
Speaker 1: Under Zimmer. You always take Minnesota at home in this position.

1011
00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:03,319
Speaker 1: So I love, love this one chat. I'm really hoping

1012
00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:05,920
Speaker 1: it gets two and a half. It's the public is

1013
00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:07,680
Speaker 1: gonna be coming in very heavy on the Seahawks in

1014
00:50:07,680 --> 00:50:11,080
Speaker 1: this game. Yeah, it's all it's all Seattle money in

1015
00:50:11,120 --> 00:50:13,960
Speaker 1: best right now and again very early in the week,

1016
00:50:14,040 --> 00:50:16,359
Speaker 1: all priestincts not reporting. But this will be a game

1017
00:50:16,400 --> 00:50:19,160
Speaker 1: come Thursday, when the money and the bets start to

1018
00:50:19,239 --> 00:50:21,360
Speaker 1: round out a little bit, the numbers coming around the shape,

1019
00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:25,800
Speaker 1: we are going to be looking at the vikings because

1020
00:50:25,960 --> 00:50:33,640
Speaker 1: you know why, uh, Green Bay Packers at San Francisco

1021
00:50:33,760 --> 00:50:37,280
Speaker 1: forty Niners. Right now, the spread in this game Packers

1022
00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:39,840
Speaker 1: plus three and a half. We are getting a lot

1023
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:44,000
Speaker 1: of comments on the Twitter sphere about our lack of

1024
00:50:44,000 --> 00:50:46,840
Speaker 1: willingness to back the Niners. Really, people, because this is

1025
00:50:46,840 --> 00:50:51,600
Speaker 1: my big balls better the week, Big balls Better the

1026
00:50:51,640 --> 00:50:58,640
Speaker 1: Week Oh man, what is it? Love love, love the

1027
00:50:58,680 --> 00:51:02,000
Speaker 1: fots in this position, congratitating Rodgers had a big win

1028
00:51:02,040 --> 00:51:06,400
Speaker 1: on Monday night. Everyone's feeling good, everyone's all happy having

1029
00:51:06,440 --> 00:51:09,680
Speaker 1: fun with him on Twitter. No, this is this is

1030
00:51:09,760 --> 00:51:12,160
Speaker 1: when you fade Aaron Rodgers after that kind of win.

1031
00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:14,880
Speaker 1: I don't like people talked about how you can't win

1032
00:51:14,920 --> 00:51:17,680
Speaker 1: in Florida. This dude cannot win in California, let alone

1033
00:51:17,680 --> 00:51:20,360
Speaker 1: against the fourty Niners. He never plays well against the

1034
00:51:20,360 --> 00:51:23,960
Speaker 1: fourty Niners. We love Kyle Shanon's run block scheme against

1035
00:51:23,960 --> 00:51:26,960
Speaker 1: this Green Bay's defense, who cannot stop the run? Even

1036
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:32,399
Speaker 1: Detroit is running all over them. Man again forty They

1037
00:51:32,560 --> 00:51:35,080
Speaker 1: escaped one last week against Eagles. They they definitely should

1038
00:51:35,080 --> 00:51:37,239
Speaker 1: have lost that game, but it was all because I

1039
00:51:37,280 --> 00:51:39,319
Speaker 1: felt like this was a good look ahead spot for them,

1040
00:51:39,560 --> 00:51:42,320
Speaker 1: and turned out the Eagles were looking at towards Dallas

1041
00:51:42,360 --> 00:51:45,279
Speaker 1: because that was like you scored three points at home

1042
00:51:45,360 --> 00:51:48,040
Speaker 1: late into the fourth quarter, where the Eagles did That's embarrassing.

1043
00:51:48,480 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 1: This is the other way. Four Niners they did what

1044
00:51:50,600 --> 00:51:53,960
Speaker 1: they had to do win that game. Now, I mean,

1045
00:51:54,000 --> 00:51:56,839
Speaker 1: people are gonna be going crazy thinking themselves, Wow, I'm

1046
00:51:56,880 --> 00:51:58,920
Speaker 1: getting Aaron Rodgers plus three and a half on the

1047
00:51:59,000 --> 00:52:02,439
Speaker 1: road here, it's it's sometimes it feels a little too easy,

1048
00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:04,080
Speaker 1: like the sports books do the work for us, and

1049
00:52:04,080 --> 00:52:06,799
Speaker 1: that's and this instinct feels like that way where you're

1050
00:52:06,800 --> 00:52:08,560
Speaker 1: you're getting a good number and the pub is coming

1051
00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:10,920
Speaker 1: in very heavy on Green Bay as long as it

1052
00:52:10,960 --> 00:52:13,400
Speaker 1: stays under four with the forty nine ers. So if

1053
00:52:13,400 --> 00:52:15,319
Speaker 1: things went up to minus four, I would still take it,

1054
00:52:15,320 --> 00:52:17,720
Speaker 1: but I wouldn't be put in the our best five picks.

1055
00:52:18,120 --> 00:52:19,600
Speaker 1: This stays a three and a half or goes down

1056
00:52:19,640 --> 00:52:22,360
Speaker 1: to three, you can guarantee this will be one of

1057
00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:25,120
Speaker 1: me and Chad's best five picks. Well right now, you're right,

1058
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:27,920
Speaker 1: I mean again, so early, all of that's all the

1059
00:52:27,960 --> 00:52:31,839
Speaker 1: money coming in on the Packers. In fact, we've got

1060
00:52:31,840 --> 00:52:35,160
Speaker 1: a line change. Line change back to the old days

1061
00:52:35,200 --> 00:52:37,239
Speaker 1: with Scooch. I'm what I'm looking at the board in

1062
00:52:37,280 --> 00:52:40,960
Speaker 1: action network dot com and it tracks everything. I'm looking

1063
00:52:41,000 --> 00:52:44,520
Speaker 1: at the public betting page on Action network dot com.

1064
00:52:44,560 --> 00:52:47,520
Speaker 1: Everyone should check it out because it tells me in

1065
00:52:47,600 --> 00:52:52,440
Speaker 1: real time when lines change. And so literally, as we

1066
00:52:52,440 --> 00:52:55,879
Speaker 1: were talking, the price on the Packers at plus three

1067
00:52:55,880 --> 00:53:00,440
Speaker 1: and a half changed, meaning that it's headed to words

1068
00:53:00,719 --> 00:53:04,399
Speaker 1: going to minus three, So that's really interesting. I love

1069
00:53:04,480 --> 00:53:07,319
Speaker 1: this number and I love this game. It's not that

1070
00:53:07,400 --> 00:53:09,520
Speaker 1: I am saying this is like one of my favorite

1071
00:53:09,520 --> 00:53:11,520
Speaker 1: bets of the weekend, but it's one of the few

1072
00:53:11,520 --> 00:53:13,480
Speaker 1: times where I'm been a favorite. I'm feeling really confident

1073
00:53:13,480 --> 00:53:17,320
Speaker 1: about that favorite that it's it's too too much slanted

1074
00:53:17,320 --> 00:53:19,799
Speaker 1: towards the other side. Where Green Bay they I think

1075
00:53:19,800 --> 00:53:22,440
Speaker 1: they had major issues, Like they were literally down seventeen

1076
00:53:22,440 --> 00:53:24,879
Speaker 1: to fourteen to that Lions team who we don't think

1077
00:53:24,960 --> 00:53:27,719
Speaker 1: is that good. So it's too it's gonna be too

1078
00:53:27,840 --> 00:53:31,000
Speaker 1: much for them overcoming the situation. We've loved the last

1079
00:53:31,000 --> 00:53:33,279
Speaker 1: four games. We love Miami plus four. We love the

1080
00:53:33,360 --> 00:53:35,520
Speaker 1: Rams plus one. We love the Fikes plus two. We

1081
00:53:35,600 --> 00:53:37,640
Speaker 1: like the Niners minus three and a half. Not to

1082
00:53:37,680 --> 00:53:39,919
Speaker 1: mention we already like the Jacks plus seven and a half,

1083
00:53:39,960 --> 00:53:42,080
Speaker 1: the Chargers plus six and a half, the Bengals plus

1084
00:53:42,120 --> 00:53:45,000
Speaker 1: four and a half was a Simon says Baltimore plus

1085
00:53:45,160 --> 00:53:47,720
Speaker 1: minus seven and a half. I mean, Jesus Christ, Simon,

1086
00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:50,080
Speaker 1: We're all over the fucking board here. Last I make

1087
00:53:50,120 --> 00:53:51,560
Speaker 1: a lot of bets man earlier in the week. It's

1088
00:53:51,560 --> 00:53:53,600
Speaker 1: what I do that's what we do. It's what we do,

1089
00:53:57,960 --> 00:54:00,600
Speaker 1: and now a word from our friends at FanDuel. The

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1096
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1097
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Speaker 1: Carolina money line the first half over and Christian McCaffrey

1098
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:31,120
Speaker 1: rushing yards over. Just look for s g P icons

1099
00:54:31,160 --> 00:54:34,480
Speaker 1: on any matchup and you'll know it's eligible for same

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1120
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1121
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1123
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Speaker 1: text next step to five three three four two in Arizona.

1124
00:55:52,560 --> 00:55:55,880
Speaker 1: Let's get back to the show. Last game on the board,

1125
00:55:56,239 --> 00:56:01,280
Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys Monday Night. You just said

1126
00:56:01,280 --> 00:56:04,000
Speaker 1: the Eagles were looking ahead potentially in that Niners game.

1127
00:56:04,280 --> 00:56:07,000
Speaker 1: Four point dogs on the road. I gotta take the

1128
00:56:07,040 --> 00:56:10,560
Speaker 1: egos here, uh coin flip game. Eagles are as bad

1129
00:56:10,600 --> 00:56:13,799
Speaker 1: as they looked in that game. The the you know

1130
00:56:14,160 --> 00:56:16,120
Speaker 1: hurt how to touchdowns a deep ball the guy gone

1131
00:56:16,120 --> 00:56:18,600
Speaker 1: out of balance and caught it. Had another deep where

1132
00:56:18,600 --> 00:56:19,879
Speaker 1: the guy took it all way down, he got tackled

1133
00:56:20,040 --> 00:56:21,799
Speaker 1: like five or the six, and they couldn't put it

1134
00:56:21,800 --> 00:56:24,240
Speaker 1: four tries in from the one and scoring that drive.

1135
00:56:26,400 --> 00:56:29,520
Speaker 1: I I will admit it, I was too down on

1136
00:56:29,560 --> 00:56:32,400
Speaker 1: this Dallas Dallas defense coming of the year. Um that

1137
00:56:32,520 --> 00:56:35,279
Speaker 1: it seems like they have made the right adjustments with

1138
00:56:35,320 --> 00:56:38,759
Speaker 1: Gus Bradley, He's he's coming and really reshape the Stallas defense.

1139
00:56:39,239 --> 00:56:40,720
Speaker 1: I also don't want to give him too much credit.

1140
00:56:41,000 --> 00:56:42,959
Speaker 1: Um the Charges kind of laid an egg in that game.

1141
00:56:43,080 --> 00:56:46,440
Speaker 1: So I like this with the Eagles will always kind

1142
00:56:46,440 --> 00:56:48,160
Speaker 1: of being in this matchup and always being in this game,

1143
00:56:48,280 --> 00:56:51,080
Speaker 1: especially effect they're on the road now after a really

1144
00:56:51,080 --> 00:56:55,360
Speaker 1: tough loss like that. It's kind of not the perfect

1145
00:56:55,400 --> 00:56:57,440
Speaker 1: situation for the Eagles to be in, but it is

1146
00:56:57,520 --> 00:56:59,799
Speaker 1: because now this is like, you know, a must win

1147
00:57:00,000 --> 00:57:03,360
Speaker 1: aim for this team against someone I expect them to

1148
00:57:03,400 --> 00:57:06,640
Speaker 1: compete against in the divisional race here, So it's gonna

1149
00:57:06,800 --> 00:57:08,280
Speaker 1: it's up to four and out a lot of books

1150
00:57:08,360 --> 00:57:11,680
Speaker 1: with the Eagles. You take that number and a divisional matchup,

1151
00:57:11,719 --> 00:57:14,239
Speaker 1: and I would wait on it. I think you could

1152
00:57:14,239 --> 00:57:15,920
Speaker 1: actually get this up to four and a half because

1153
00:57:16,000 --> 00:57:18,200
Speaker 1: the public will keep coming on Dallas, especially after that

1154
00:57:18,240 --> 00:57:21,200
Speaker 1: big win last week for them. The Dallas fan base,

1155
00:57:21,520 --> 00:57:24,200
Speaker 1: they love to bet on their team, so you might

1156
00:57:24,240 --> 00:57:25,600
Speaker 1: be able to get a better number in the public

1157
00:57:25,680 --> 00:57:27,680
Speaker 1: just keeps coming on the Cowboys here. But I need

1158
00:57:27,720 --> 00:57:29,360
Speaker 1: to see more from this Eagos team before I can

1159
00:57:29,400 --> 00:57:31,840
Speaker 1: make an opinion on it, So I'm good with taking

1160
00:57:31,840 --> 00:57:33,680
Speaker 1: the egos by would not put this is my favorite five.

1161
00:57:33,960 --> 00:57:37,120
Speaker 1: I probably would stay away from this one. Yeah, alright.

1162
00:57:37,360 --> 00:57:41,720
Speaker 1: To review big balls bet of the week, we're going

1163
00:57:41,720 --> 00:57:44,040
Speaker 1: with the Niners minus three and a half. The Simon

1164
00:57:44,280 --> 00:57:48,080
Speaker 1: says that is the Bengals plus four and a half

1165
00:57:48,120 --> 00:57:52,000
Speaker 1: against the Pittsburgh Steelers. We've narrowed down our early bets

1166
00:57:52,040 --> 00:57:54,400
Speaker 1: list that we will discuss on Thursday, and we know

1167
00:57:54,520 --> 00:57:58,160
Speaker 1: it down even more. Chargers at the Chiefs plus six

1168
00:57:58,200 --> 00:58:01,720
Speaker 1: and a half the Jazz Aggs, which is gross plus

1169
00:58:01,720 --> 00:58:05,960
Speaker 1: seven and a half at home against Arizona Baltimore at Detroit.

1170
00:58:06,280 --> 00:58:08,680
Speaker 1: Then we gotta run in the late games. We gotta run.

1171
00:58:09,160 --> 00:58:12,080
Speaker 1: Miami plus four and a half at Las Vegas Rams

1172
00:58:12,160 --> 00:58:15,960
Speaker 1: plus one at home against the Box Vikes, plus two

1173
00:58:16,000 --> 00:58:17,960
Speaker 1: at home against the Seahawks. Niners minus three and a

1174
00:58:18,000 --> 00:58:20,600
Speaker 1: half at home against the Packers. Will review all this

1175
00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:24,440
Speaker 1: on Thursday. Let me read you a review. This is

1176
00:58:24,520 --> 00:58:27,320
Speaker 1: from help Me. I'm broke, and it's like this person

1177
00:58:27,400 --> 00:58:29,240
Speaker 1: reached into my soul and said the meanest thing that

1178
00:58:29,280 --> 00:58:33,880
Speaker 1: could possibly say. Five star review titled Chad is like Mattnege.

1179
00:58:34,160 --> 00:58:37,440
Speaker 1: Chad disagreeing with Simon, who was the professional NFL better

1180
00:58:37,760 --> 00:58:41,720
Speaker 1: on picks like Denver minus three is just like Mattnege

1181
00:58:41,720 --> 00:58:43,920
Speaker 1: thinking Andy Dalton gives the Bears a better chance to

1182
00:58:43,920 --> 00:58:47,360
Speaker 1: win over Justin Fields. Thankfully, most listeners are not like

1183
00:58:47,440 --> 00:58:52,200
Speaker 1: Chad and Mattnege. We listened to the professional better. Matt

1184
00:58:52,240 --> 00:58:55,240
Speaker 1: Mitchell slacked that to me in you last night. My

1185
00:58:55,320 --> 00:58:57,520
Speaker 1: only comment was, this is the most hurtful thing anyone

1186
00:58:57,560 --> 00:59:00,040
Speaker 1: who has ever said to me, any response to a

1187
00:59:00,760 --> 00:59:03,640
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell Simon. All these reviewers I was reading through

1188
00:59:03,640 --> 00:59:05,520
Speaker 1: a bunch of them, They're just hilarious on these people.

1189
00:59:05,920 --> 00:59:08,480
Speaker 1: But I'm sorry, Chad that the truth does hurt a

1190
00:59:08,520 --> 00:59:10,640
Speaker 1: little bit. I'm not fucking mattni again. I'm not to

1191
00:59:10,720 --> 00:59:14,160
Speaker 1: cover my ask coach. Okay, I go big risk. Nobody

1192
00:59:14,160 --> 00:59:16,880
Speaker 1: can say I don't go big risk. And I'll remind

1193
00:59:16,920 --> 00:59:19,160
Speaker 1: you that the most shruitful comments I've ever read is

1194
00:59:19,160 --> 00:59:22,520
Speaker 1: when that guy called me the Cliff Kingsbury a podcast producers.

1195
00:59:22,880 --> 00:59:26,320
Speaker 1: Words can hurt too, listeners. That's right, Words can hurt.

1196
00:59:26,640 --> 00:59:29,680
Speaker 1: Comparisons to coaches that we can't stand can really hurt.

1197
00:59:29,920 --> 00:59:31,480
Speaker 1: All Right, I think we've done it all. We'll be

1198
00:59:31,520 --> 00:59:34,720
Speaker 1: back on Thursday. We will narrow down our pics. We

1199
00:59:34,760 --> 00:59:38,760
Speaker 1: will talk about our survivor until Thursday. For Simon Hunter,

1200
00:59:39,280 --> 00:59:42,360
Speaker 1: I am Chad Mewman. This has been the favorite podcast.

1201
00:59:42,600 --> 00:59:46,360
Speaker 1: Download us from Apple Podcast, download us from Spotify, wherever

1202
00:59:46,400 --> 00:59:49,360
Speaker 1: you can get your podcasts. Until Thursday. I love you