WEBVTT - The President Has No Clothes: Biden Should Drop Out

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<v Speaker 1>Pushkin. Hey everyone, welcome back to Risky Business, a show

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<v Speaker 1>about making better decisions or freaking the fuck out. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Maria Kandikova.

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<v Speaker 2>And I'm Nate Silvan. It's is our first emergency episode.

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<v Speaker 1>I believe is this is it is it is. It's

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<v Speaker 1>our emergency podcast. You guys heard our voices just yesterday,

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<v Speaker 1>and we are back again today, Friday, after the presidential

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<v Speaker 1>elections because we just could not sleep. Literally in some cases.

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<v Speaker 2>Elections are oh yes, sorry, which gives people thankfully.

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<v Speaker 1>This is how fried my brain is. This is how

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<v Speaker 1>fried my brain is. I said, elections instead of debate. So, Nate,

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<v Speaker 1>last night we were both watching the debates from opposite

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<v Speaker 1>coasts and about let's see twenty minutes in. I actually

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<v Speaker 1>have the time stamp on my phone. Six twenty, I

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<v Speaker 1>texted you, since you know we we were not watching it.

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<v Speaker 1>We were watching it together but apart, and I'm just

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<v Speaker 1>going to read my text, I says. I said, this

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<v Speaker 1>debate is painful, what is even happening? Make it stop?

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<v Speaker 1>And then I said we are so fucked. And that

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<v Speaker 1>is when I knew Nate that we had to talk today.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and I was getting a lot of texts like that.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, people know, like I'm busy during debates, I'm

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<v Speaker 2>probably going to respond right away, but like the degree

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<v Speaker 2>of unanimity.

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<v Speaker 1>You responded to me.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks, Yeah, look, you're hyph riary the degree of unanimity

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<v Speaker 2>that I was seeing from from you know, different types

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<v Speaker 2>of Democrats, right centrist Democrats and left wing Democrats and

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<v Speaker 2>Democrats who have been very mad at me for suggesting

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<v Speaker 2>Derek to suggests that having a guy running to be

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<v Speaker 2>president Untilose eighty six might be a bad idea and

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<v Speaker 2>couldn't badly and or with a Donald Trump presidency instead,

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<v Speaker 2>And like, I want to criticize people who change their

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<v Speaker 2>mind in the direction that I think is persuasive. But

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<v Speaker 2>like among the media slash pundit class, you have to

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<v Speaker 2>be really bad when the incentives are so strong to spin.

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<v Speaker 2>You have to be really bad to get to a

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<v Speaker 2>point where even the spinners kind of give up.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, And I'm you know, the.

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<v Speaker 2>Term preference cascade is sometimes used where people think something

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<v Speaker 2>and there's a social stigma of saying it. Well, there's

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<v Speaker 2>no longer a social stigma of saying that Joe Biden

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<v Speaker 2>should drop out, right, That's like, that's like almost like

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<v Speaker 2>the normy not normally damn voter you although actually it

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<v Speaker 2>is Actually I take that back, because like if you

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<v Speaker 2>look at Poles, and overwhelming majority of voters and the

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<v Speaker 2>majority of Democrats, not an overwhelming majority of Democrats have

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<v Speaker 2>said that they think Biden is too old to be

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<v Speaker 2>president at least for another four years.

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<v Speaker 3>So look, I think this was, you know.

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<v Speaker 2>Relative to Look, I actually thought about this ahead of time, Maria,

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<v Speaker 2>because I'm weird like that, right. I thought there was

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<v Speaker 2>like a twenty percent chance that I would write a

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<v Speaker 2>post which I wrote at Silver Bolton early this morning

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<v Speaker 2>slash late last night.

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<v Speaker 3>Entitled Yes, Joe Biden should drop out.

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<v Speaker 2>I thought there was a twenty percent chance of that,

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<v Speaker 2>but I thought that twenty percent people would be really

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<v Speaker 2>really mad at me. And now like everyone loves the

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<v Speaker 2>post and it's like the conventional wisdom and it's obvious

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<v Speaker 2>apparently right.

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<v Speaker 1>But like, by the way, you got a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>shit when you said he should drop out when we

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<v Speaker 1>were talking about on this podcast about four weeks ago

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<v Speaker 1>something like that, because you said he could drop out.

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<v Speaker 3>We didn't say he should should.

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<v Speaker 1>We said he should consider.

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<v Speaker 2>And then we launched our election model on wed days

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<v Speaker 2>and even on Wednesday, and Biden had like a thirty

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<v Speaker 2>five percent chance of winning that forecast, and that will

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<v Speaker 2>probably go down maybe quite a bit after the debate.

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<v Speaker 2>But like at thirty five percent is where I was

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<v Speaker 2>roughly indifferent. It's a good poker term, right, although actually

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<v Speaker 2>use that in like regular life. It's like not that weird,

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<v Speaker 2>but like I was indifferent at thirty five percent between

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<v Speaker 2>Biden and mystery.

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<v Speaker 1>And folding, right, yeah, between.

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<v Speaker 2>Calling and folding, you know, whatever his efforts debate, it's

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<v Speaker 2>it's a fold. It's not even a fucking close fold, right,

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<v Speaker 2>It's not even I'm not gonna I'm not going to

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<v Speaker 2>use a time bank chip thinking about this one any longer.

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<v Speaker 3>It's not tenable, not tenable to have.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, I'm not just even tenable for him to

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<v Speaker 2>be president for the next six months or whatever, right,

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, that's a debate we could probably have, right,

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<v Speaker 2>that might be close, but like, it's not tenable to

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<v Speaker 2>have someone who wants to be president for another four

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<v Speaker 2>and a half years give a performance like that where

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<v Speaker 2>he obviously shows his age, which is what you'd expect

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<v Speaker 2>because he's eighty one and he wants to be president

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<v Speaker 2>until he's eighty six. It's not tenable to have this

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<v Speaker 2>person continue to run for president right now. People are

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<v Speaker 2>fucking stupid and stubborn, especially old people. Yeah, and they

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<v Speaker 2>may make a bad decision, but like, if you care

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<v Speaker 2>about like, uh, defeating Donald Trump, if you care about

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<v Speaker 2>the kind of you' sure the Democratic Party, and if

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<v Speaker 2>you care about listening to like the voters who have

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<v Speaker 2>done you the favor of telling you this for a year,

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<v Speaker 2>that like, yeah, hey, common sense, you know, eighty one

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<v Speaker 2>is too old to be president and president was eighty six.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm sorry, but like this is kind of not that

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<v Speaker 2>close a decision anymore, I don't think. And in some ways,

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<v Speaker 2>like I told, like a I'm rambling. I'm sorry, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>it's I.

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<v Speaker 1>Told you're allowed to ramble on it, and then I'll

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<v Speaker 1>ramble after you. Please continue with.

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<v Speaker 2>This little social event on Wednesday night, and I had

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<v Speaker 2>a good conversation with women I had met before, and

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<v Speaker 2>she was despondent about Biden's performance, and I'm like, well,

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<v Speaker 2>you'd probably root for it to go either really well

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<v Speaker 2>or really badly, right because the muddling through the status quo,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, two third chance of losing or whatever. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>one thirds in that bad as any poker player knows.

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<v Speaker 2>But you know, it may have been so bad that

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<v Speaker 2>it's the thing that saves Democrats from a disaster. Although

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<v Speaker 2>I still think and the other nominee against Trump would

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<v Speaker 2>also be, you know, in a difficult position.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm not Pollyanna ish about.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Oh, Gavin Newsom waved the wine and now he wins.

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<v Speaker 2>Like no, I think Gavin Newsom now or Kamala Harris

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<v Speaker 2>has a puncher's chance or maybe more than a puncher's chance,

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<v Speaker 2>but like but like just you know, might be below

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<v Speaker 2>fifty percent, but above Biden.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, So a few things. I mean, first of all, like, yes,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that yesterday was abysmal. I mean I actually

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<v Speaker 1>literally was watching at the beginning, like I do horror movies,

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<v Speaker 1>like sometimes when something is too grizzly, like I like,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, shield my face and I don't even realize

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<v Speaker 1>I'm doing it. And I was doing that yesterday, Like

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<v Speaker 1>I was sitting on the couch and like at some

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<v Speaker 1>point I just went like this, you know, I shielded

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<v Speaker 1>my eyes and I was like, oh my god, this

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<v Speaker 1>is this is just it was painful, Like it was

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<v Speaker 1>actually physically painful to watch, especially at the beginning. I

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<v Speaker 1>think he got a little bit better, but he was

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<v Speaker 1>just struggling so much, and you could really see his

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<v Speaker 1>age and Trump, I mean, Trump was making no sense either,

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<v Speaker 1>but he was confidentially making no sense and lying, and

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that a candidate couldn't beat that, couldn't point

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<v Speaker 1>out the inconsistency, you know, the old I was a

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<v Speaker 1>debater all through school. Like the debater part of me,

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<v Speaker 1>I was like, I wanted to be like, oh my god,

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<v Speaker 1>you know you have to you have to do you

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<v Speaker 1>have to interrupt him here, you have to try, you

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<v Speaker 1>have to do this, you have to address this. And

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<v Speaker 1>then Biden just flubbed his biggest points, you know, abortion,

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<v Speaker 1>He just suddenly pivoted to immigration. You know, it was

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<v Speaker 1>just it was just really really sad, heartbreaking and also scary.

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<v Speaker 1>Like I said, I felt like I was watching just

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<v Speaker 1>this slow motion train wreck horror movie where I didn't

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<v Speaker 1>even want to see what was happening on screen. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>what you were saying, kind of the second part of

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<v Speaker 1>your ramble about people, you said you were rambling. You

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<v Speaker 1>called it a ramble, So I'm just referring back to

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<v Speaker 1>what you said. It was a very cocerent ramble. I

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<v Speaker 1>didn't think you were. I didn't think you were rambling,

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<v Speaker 1>but then you said I'm rambling. So that's why I'm

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<v Speaker 1>calling it.

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<v Speaker 2>You're supposed to say, oh, this look great on me, right,

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<v Speaker 2>It's like, you know, I'm all right, Nate in.

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<v Speaker 1>The second part of your incredibly coherent multi part speech.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh by the way, now I'm going to go on

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<v Speaker 1>a ramble on a tangent and say that every single

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<v Speaker 1>time that Biden started saying number one, I was like,

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<v Speaker 1>please don't do it, Please don't do it. You're not

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<v Speaker 1>going to get like, we're not going to get to

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<v Speaker 1>number two. And then he would say like number one again,

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<v Speaker 1>and I was like, oh no, just just please stop.

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<v Speaker 1>Stop stop doing these lists. Is this is not good.

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<v Speaker 1>And other people felt that way as well. But anyhow,

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<v Speaker 1>what I was going to say is the second part

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<v Speaker 1>of what you were talking about, kind of the stubbornness.

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<v Speaker 1>And I've actually seen reactions to people saying, well, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's what will this say about the Democratic Party that

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<v Speaker 1>they've been like hiding this and blah blah blah. No,

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<v Speaker 1>so let's go back to something we've talked about on

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<v Speaker 1>this podcast before, which is the sunk cost fallacy like

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<v Speaker 1>this is probably the single most important sunk cost fallacy

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<v Speaker 1>that you could face and you know in politics ever,

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<v Speaker 1>which is that you know some cost fallacy to remind

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<v Speaker 1>our listeners putting good money after bad, good time after bad,

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<v Speaker 1>good energy after bad, basically saying that because we haven't

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<v Speaker 1>done something to this point, or we have done this

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<v Speaker 1>and we've already invested, we can't change right. We have

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<v Speaker 1>to keep going and we have to just continue on

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<v Speaker 1>the path we're on. Whereas the rational choice might be

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<v Speaker 1>to say, Okay, you know what. I can't change the

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<v Speaker 1>fact that we didn't replace Biden immediately. I can't change

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that we didn't convince Biden not to run

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<v Speaker 1>for a second term and to step down immediately. I

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<v Speaker 1>can't change the fact that back in September, when we

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<v Speaker 1>had more time, he didn't step down. What I can

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<v Speaker 1>change is what I'm doing right now. And that doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>mean I'm nefarious. That doesn't mean that I've done something stupid,

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<v Speaker 1>that I've been hiding things. All it means is that

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<v Speaker 1>the information the dataset has changed the reality right now

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<v Speaker 1>isn't the reality of a year ago or two years ago, which,

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<v Speaker 1>as you pointed out in your newsletter, happens because decline

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<v Speaker 1>does happen kind of suddenly, and you know, it's not

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<v Speaker 1>like it's a very gradual process, you know. And we

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<v Speaker 1>I think we witnessed it yesterday. But what you should

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<v Speaker 1>say is, Okay, this doesn't say anything bad about me.

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<v Speaker 1>What it says is that I'm smart, that I understand

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<v Speaker 1>what's happening right now, and then I'm willing to change

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<v Speaker 1>my mind. And that is a sign of intelligence and savvy.

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<v Speaker 1>And as you say, having Biden step down is not

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<v Speaker 1>guaranteeing a Democratic victory, but having him not step down

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<v Speaker 1>is almost almost, I mean not quite, but almost handing

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<v Speaker 1>the victory to Trump.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I don't know.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, you know, again, he was at thirty five

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<v Speaker 2>percent or thirty three percent whatever before the debate. The

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<v Speaker 2>CNN instant pole of debate watchers had him losing two

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<v Speaker 2>to one. This is a poll the Democrats have won

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<v Speaker 2>every debate that Trump has ever participated in, every debate

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<v Speaker 2>since the first of eate in twenty twelve. That might translate,

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<v Speaker 2>if you kind of use the back of the envelope formula,

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<v Speaker 2>into Biden losing another two or three points, and they

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<v Speaker 2>head to head poles against Trump. At that point he

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<v Speaker 2>might follod it twenty percent or something in our model,

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<v Speaker 2>and twenty percent is still meaningly above zero. But look,

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<v Speaker 2>as you were saying, like, I mean, there's two things here.

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<v Speaker 2>One is that there has been a lot of new

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<v Speaker 2>information revealed.

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<v Speaker 3>Right.

0:11:21.604 --> 0:11:23.404
<v Speaker 2>I might have made an inference that I thought Biden

0:11:23.444 --> 0:11:24.844
<v Speaker 2>wasn't going to handle the debate. Well, but that was

0:11:24.884 --> 0:11:27.724
<v Speaker 2>just a guess, right, And now we have actual evidence

0:11:27.764 --> 0:11:30.524
<v Speaker 2>of it, and we have evidence of Biden's polling being

0:11:30.564 --> 0:11:34.004
<v Speaker 2>stagnant and Trump maintaining a lead after all this stuff

0:11:34.044 --> 0:11:36.804
<v Speaker 2>that has happened, like Trump's criminal convictions and the economy

0:11:36.844 --> 0:11:39.204
<v Speaker 2>getting quite a bit better, and Willage being more.

0:11:39.084 --> 0:11:41.804
<v Speaker 3>Focused on the race. There's also a poker thing.

0:11:41.724 --> 0:11:45.644
<v Speaker 2>Though, where like sometimes you have a hand where there

0:11:45.724 --> 0:11:49.284
<v Speaker 2>isn't new information, however you have more time to reflect

0:11:49.604 --> 0:11:51.564
<v Speaker 2>and come to your senses. Right, you can have a

0:11:51.604 --> 0:11:54.844
<v Speaker 2>hand where it's like, well, why to call with this

0:11:54.924 --> 0:11:56.444
<v Speaker 2>hand on the turn? If I'm going to fold to

0:11:56.484 --> 0:11:58.604
<v Speaker 2>the river on a relatively good card for me, and

0:11:58.644 --> 0:12:00.284
<v Speaker 2>if you plug it into a solver, it would say

0:12:00.284 --> 0:12:03.124
<v Speaker 2>you've made a mistake. Well, it's because you had more

0:12:03.164 --> 0:12:05.404
<v Speaker 2>time to think about it on the river. Maybe you're

0:12:05.404 --> 0:12:07.244
<v Speaker 2>a little bit tilted or something on the turn, maybe

0:12:07.244 --> 0:12:10.524
<v Speaker 2>you were distracted, maybe you're playing poker online multi tabling,

0:12:10.524 --> 0:12:13.524
<v Speaker 2>playing more than one table at once, so being able

0:12:13.564 --> 0:12:16.364
<v Speaker 2>to say, look, I have thought about this more, and

0:12:16.404 --> 0:12:19.524
<v Speaker 2>I'm changing my mind, certainly when there's new information, but

0:12:19.564 --> 0:12:21.404
<v Speaker 2>even when there's not is also assigned.

0:12:21.444 --> 0:12:23.404
<v Speaker 3>And I think judgment and experience.

0:12:22.964 --> 0:12:27.604
<v Speaker 1>And character absolutely. Now I have a question for you,

0:12:28.204 --> 0:12:33.084
<v Speaker 1>so historically, and correct me if I'm wrong. I had

0:12:33.124 --> 0:12:38.404
<v Speaker 1>the sense that debates didn't affect polls that much, right,

0:12:39.084 --> 0:12:42.244
<v Speaker 1>that kind of the polls didn't don't move that much

0:12:42.324 --> 0:12:45.844
<v Speaker 1>in the in the you know, in the aftermath of

0:12:46.364 --> 0:12:48.724
<v Speaker 1>a debate. Do we think that that's going to change

0:12:48.884 --> 0:12:51.484
<v Speaker 1>in this particular case, or do we think that it

0:12:51.564 --> 0:12:54.084
<v Speaker 1>might that you know, this might still be the case here.

0:12:54.124 --> 0:12:56.404
<v Speaker 2>I mean that much is relative, right, Like nothing has

0:12:56.404 --> 0:12:59.124
<v Speaker 2>moved the polls more than like about a point at

0:12:59.124 --> 0:13:03.164
<v Speaker 2>a time. You know, if I had to predict, Trump

0:13:03.324 --> 0:13:05.564
<v Speaker 2>was one and a half points ahead in our national

0:13:05.564 --> 0:13:07.804
<v Speaker 2>polling average, which of course national poles don't really count

0:13:07.804 --> 0:13:10.844
<v Speaker 2>for very much, but it's you reasonable benchmark, one point

0:13:10.844 --> 0:13:12.524
<v Speaker 2>five points ahead in our national polling average, but I

0:13:12.524 --> 0:13:14.324
<v Speaker 2>had to predict it might be you know, three or

0:13:14.364 --> 0:13:17.684
<v Speaker 2>three and a half within a couple of weeks, once

0:13:17.684 --> 0:13:19.564
<v Speaker 2>the higher quality polls are fully priced. Ten.

0:13:20.164 --> 0:13:21.444
<v Speaker 3>You know, the problem is.

0:13:21.404 --> 0:13:22.844
<v Speaker 1>So that's actually pretty substantial.

0:13:22.964 --> 0:13:25.084
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and that's the wild guess. It could be two,

0:13:25.124 --> 0:13:25.724
<v Speaker 3>it could be four.

0:13:26.204 --> 0:13:29.484
<v Speaker 2>I mean, look, the problem is that Biden is not

0:13:29.564 --> 0:13:31.764
<v Speaker 2>in a position where he's ahead and just has to

0:13:31.804 --> 0:13:36.004
<v Speaker 2>stem the damage, right and let the floodwaters recede. He's

0:13:36.084 --> 0:13:39.724
<v Speaker 2>behind and to come back, and he'll be further behind,

0:13:39.764 --> 0:13:44.204
<v Speaker 2>almost for sure, once these poles are incorporated. Yeah. And

0:13:44.404 --> 0:13:46.164
<v Speaker 2>you know, one of the opportunities he thought he had

0:13:46.204 --> 0:13:49.124
<v Speaker 2>to turn around the campaign was the debate. Now there's

0:13:49.124 --> 0:13:51.164
<v Speaker 2>only one more debate. And believe me, if Biden could

0:13:51.244 --> 0:13:54.564
<v Speaker 2>like cancer, he probably would. So how is this guy

0:13:54.724 --> 0:14:00.004
<v Speaker 2>supposed to show the dexterity and energy and flexibility to

0:14:00.884 --> 0:14:03.244
<v Speaker 2>mount a comeback against a guy I mean, look, whatever

0:14:03.244 --> 0:14:05.924
<v Speaker 2>you say about Trump, he immediately sens.

0:14:05.964 --> 0:14:07.724
<v Speaker 3>You can kind of see it on his face. Right.

0:14:08.044 --> 0:14:09.844
<v Speaker 2>It's like a poker player who realized that like a

0:14:09.884 --> 0:14:13.004
<v Speaker 2>player on his right is a fucking drunk fish. It's

0:14:13.044 --> 0:14:15.564
<v Speaker 2>going to donate thousands of dollars to the table, and

0:14:15.564 --> 0:14:18.924
<v Speaker 2>he's gonna guaranteed to soaking the next hour.

0:14:18.724 --> 0:14:20.764
<v Speaker 3>An hour, an hour, right next hours ahead.

0:14:21.044 --> 0:14:24.964
<v Speaker 2>Like Trump knew instantly that Biden was parted terribly and

0:14:26.444 --> 0:14:31.124
<v Speaker 2>at times was more restrained or at least was like

0:14:31.204 --> 0:14:34.004
<v Speaker 2>crisp in the delivery. And like, you know, but like

0:14:34.244 --> 0:14:37.444
<v Speaker 2>that's kind of says It's like Trump still has his

0:14:37.564 --> 0:14:41.404
<v Speaker 2>political animal instincts intact, and like I'm not sure Biden

0:14:41.444 --> 0:14:43.964
<v Speaker 2>even has that anymore. I mean, he couldn't deliver his

0:14:44.044 --> 0:14:47.844
<v Speaker 2>canned lines, he couldn't deliver his closing statement. And as

0:14:47.844 --> 0:14:49.964
<v Speaker 2>you know, when people get older, they can have days.

0:14:50.004 --> 0:14:51.404
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I don't want to name anyone in particular,

0:14:51.444 --> 0:14:53.684
<v Speaker 2>but like they can have days maybe half the time,

0:14:53.724 --> 0:14:56.204
<v Speaker 2>two thirds of the time, three quarters at the time

0:14:56.364 --> 0:14:59.524
<v Speaker 2>where they act like their old self, or maybe they

0:14:59.564 --> 0:15:02.644
<v Speaker 2>do in most capacities in their life. But it's not

0:15:02.684 --> 0:15:05.964
<v Speaker 2>good enough when you're the American president and the president

0:15:05.964 --> 0:15:10.284
<v Speaker 2>for another four fucking years. It's just irresponsible. The people

0:15:10.324 --> 0:15:12.204
<v Speaker 2>in the White House who have not spoken about this

0:15:12.244 --> 0:15:15.084
<v Speaker 2>publicly should be shun from public life frankly, you know,

0:15:15.284 --> 0:15:17.644
<v Speaker 2>I mean seriously, some of them will write, you know,

0:15:17.924 --> 0:15:21.124
<v Speaker 2>big magazine expose's and get book deals and things like that,

0:15:21.324 --> 0:15:23.644
<v Speaker 2>they're fucking cowards. If you're in the White House and

0:15:23.684 --> 0:15:25.884
<v Speaker 2>you think you're a fucking patriot, come fucking forward and

0:15:25.884 --> 0:15:27.884
<v Speaker 2>tell us what Joe Biden's really like, right, don't get

0:15:27.924 --> 0:15:30.164
<v Speaker 2>a fucking book deal in two years and then say

0:15:30.204 --> 0:15:32.604
<v Speaker 2>how much you knew all along? You're a fucking coward. Yeah,

0:15:32.644 --> 0:15:34.844
<v Speaker 2>not like willing to speak or defend him. Er say, look,

0:15:34.884 --> 0:15:36.284
<v Speaker 2>I'm being honest and I'm going to tell you that,

0:15:36.284 --> 0:15:38.204
<v Speaker 2>like it's actually not that bad. That's fine too, but

0:15:38.284 --> 0:15:41.364
<v Speaker 2>like there's a lot of fucking cowards at the Democredit Party.

0:15:52.244 --> 0:15:55.044
<v Speaker 1>So something that you said makes me kind of reflect

0:15:55.044 --> 0:15:57.204
<v Speaker 1>on a broader point, which is that you know, our

0:15:57.444 --> 0:16:01.124
<v Speaker 1>decision making ability, our cognitive capacity isn't equal right over time,

0:16:01.724 --> 0:16:03.884
<v Speaker 1>and you could have good days and bad days. Now,

0:16:03.924 --> 0:16:07.644
<v Speaker 1>what we saw yesterday was a high pressure situation, right

0:16:07.884 --> 0:16:12.084
<v Speaker 1>performance under time, pressure performance with the cameras on you.

0:16:12.364 --> 0:16:15.484
<v Speaker 1>High pressure, Like you know, you need to perform. And

0:16:16.844 --> 0:16:20.044
<v Speaker 1>the thing is, if you're running to be the president

0:16:20.204 --> 0:16:23.364
<v Speaker 1>of the United States, that's when you need to perform well.

0:16:23.684 --> 0:16:27.604
<v Speaker 1>You need to perform well under those high pressure situations.

0:16:27.684 --> 0:16:30.084
<v Speaker 1>I don't give a fuck if you're fine on your

0:16:30.124 --> 0:16:32.684
<v Speaker 1>off days on the weekend, when you have, you know,

0:16:33.164 --> 0:16:35.444
<v Speaker 1>hours and hours to think about it. I need to

0:16:35.604 --> 0:16:39.084
<v Speaker 1>know that you're also fine in a crisis situation, when

0:16:39.084 --> 0:16:41.364
<v Speaker 1>the lights are on you, when you have to respond

0:16:41.524 --> 0:16:44.924
<v Speaker 1>undertime pressure, when you have to make hot decisions. I

0:16:45.084 --> 0:16:47.284
<v Speaker 1>want to know that that's when you shine, that you're

0:16:47.284 --> 0:16:49.964
<v Speaker 1>not going to choke. And what we saw last night

0:16:50.284 --> 0:16:53.804
<v Speaker 1>is Biden absolutely choking. And by the way, it also

0:16:53.964 --> 0:16:57.004
<v Speaker 1>kind of reminded me, you know, back in school in

0:16:57.284 --> 0:17:01.444
<v Speaker 1>political science class when you probably watch these clips two

0:17:01.524 --> 0:17:04.204
<v Speaker 1>of the original Kennedy Nixon debates, where like Nixon just

0:17:04.204 --> 0:17:07.924
<v Speaker 1>looked horrible on camera, right, and Kennedy just won because

0:17:07.964 --> 0:17:10.204
<v Speaker 1>you looked so much better. Sorry, you were going to

0:17:10.244 --> 0:17:14.004
<v Speaker 1>get another debate and there, Yeah, Bida just looked awful.

0:17:14.604 --> 0:17:18.444
<v Speaker 1>He just looked like when you looked at the split screen,

0:17:18.524 --> 0:17:21.084
<v Speaker 1>he looked lost, you know, he just looked like he

0:17:21.124 --> 0:17:23.244
<v Speaker 1>didn't know what was happening. He was gaping. He just

0:17:23.284 --> 0:17:27.324
<v Speaker 1>didn't He had no presence, and Trump has presence. I mean,

0:17:27.564 --> 0:17:29.884
<v Speaker 1>I hate Trump. He was lying. There was not a

0:17:29.924 --> 0:17:32.284
<v Speaker 1>single true word out of his mouth. But as you said,

0:17:32.364 --> 0:17:35.444
<v Speaker 1>his political instincts were on. He you know, commanded the camera.

0:17:35.524 --> 0:17:38.204
<v Speaker 1>He had this chesshire cat grin like yes, I'm about

0:17:38.244 --> 0:17:41.044
<v Speaker 1>to get all the whales money right here, like keep

0:17:41.084 --> 0:17:44.404
<v Speaker 1>it coming, and he had the barbs like the you know,

0:17:44.804 --> 0:17:46.204
<v Speaker 1>I don't know what he said at the end of

0:17:46.244 --> 0:17:48.844
<v Speaker 1>that last sentence. I don't think he knows either. I mean,

0:17:48.964 --> 0:17:51.484
<v Speaker 1>that's those clips are going to go viral, and that's

0:17:51.524 --> 0:17:53.764
<v Speaker 1>going to really be well awful. I said a lot

0:17:53.804 --> 0:17:56.244
<v Speaker 1>of different things there, but I think they're all really.

0:17:56.124 --> 0:17:59.484
<v Speaker 2>Trump was even more brazen than usual about kind of

0:17:59.524 --> 0:18:03.204
<v Speaker 2>unapologetically lying, and part because I think he realized that

0:18:03.244 --> 0:18:07.084
<v Speaker 2>like Biden couldn't fight back, right. I mean, it's what

0:18:07.164 --> 0:18:09.724
<v Speaker 2>you might call an exploitive strategy, and poker is like

0:18:10.204 --> 0:18:12.684
<v Speaker 2>I can just keep bluffing because this guy is too

0:18:12.724 --> 0:18:15.564
<v Speaker 2>weak to call me down, right, he does not have

0:18:15.964 --> 0:18:17.644
<v Speaker 2>what it takes today to call me down.

0:18:18.644 --> 0:18:21.484
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, the physical thing. I mean, there have been an advance.

0:18:21.164 --> 0:18:26.604
<v Speaker 2>Of the debate, Republican groups circulating unflattering videos of Biden

0:18:26.804 --> 0:18:30.204
<v Speaker 2>like looking like he's wandering off or dazed or freezing

0:18:30.324 --> 0:18:31.444
<v Speaker 2>and like, and these.

0:18:31.364 --> 0:18:32.124
<v Speaker 3>Videos are.

0:18:33.484 --> 0:18:37.524
<v Speaker 2>Unflatteringly and kind of selectively edited. So like you have

0:18:37.604 --> 0:18:40.004
<v Speaker 2>these news organizations put out like fact checks and say, okay,

0:18:40.004 --> 0:18:42.044
<v Speaker 2>well if you look at the broader context and Biden

0:18:42.204 --> 0:18:43.964
<v Speaker 2>was like there was one where they're in a field

0:18:43.964 --> 0:18:46.284
<v Speaker 2>at like the G seven summit and for some reason

0:18:46.284 --> 0:18:49.444
<v Speaker 2>they're like parashooters. This all sounds very weird. You know,

0:18:49.604 --> 0:18:52.444
<v Speaker 2>international organizations in Europe is weird, right, So like, of

0:18:52.484 --> 0:18:56.044
<v Speaker 2>course it's weird, but like, so what will happen is

0:18:56.084 --> 0:19:00.724
<v Speaker 2>like the fact checkers will show the full clip in context,

0:19:01.004 --> 0:19:03.804
<v Speaker 2>which also looks pretty fucking bad. Right. It also makes

0:19:03.844 --> 0:19:06.604
<v Speaker 2>by the fucking old and loss not as bad as

0:19:06.644 --> 0:19:11.204
<v Speaker 2>the GOP edited special directors cutversion. But the GFP fucking knows,

0:19:11.364 --> 0:19:13.404
<v Speaker 2>because they seem to care about winning more the Democrats

0:19:13.444 --> 0:19:15.684
<v Speaker 2>to they know that. Like they're going to have this

0:19:15.724 --> 0:19:18.284
<v Speaker 2>double hit with these videos where the added version and

0:19:18.364 --> 0:19:21.764
<v Speaker 2>all the fucking precious fact checkers dutifully show the real version,

0:19:21.764 --> 0:19:23.644
<v Speaker 2>which is also fucking bad for Biden because he's fucking

0:19:23.684 --> 0:19:26.804
<v Speaker 2>eighty one years old and he's clearly diminished. He is

0:19:26.964 --> 0:19:29.084
<v Speaker 2>maybe above average for an eighty one year old, but

0:19:29.124 --> 0:19:31.524
<v Speaker 2>he is very much diminished. I mean, what really freaked

0:19:31.524 --> 0:19:35.164
<v Speaker 2>me out about Biden was, you know, Ezra Klein wrote

0:19:35.204 --> 0:19:40.084
<v Speaker 2>this column maybe back in March or something, saying Biden

0:19:40.124 --> 0:19:43.004
<v Speaker 2>should consider dropping out and having this emergency lever pulled

0:19:43.044 --> 0:19:45.924
<v Speaker 2>at the convention. And he just linked to some videos

0:19:45.924 --> 0:19:50.964
<v Speaker 2>comparing Biden's campaign announcement in twenty twenty versus twenty twenty four.

0:19:51.724 --> 0:19:53.444
<v Speaker 3>And I saw that. I'm like, oh my god, even

0:19:53.484 --> 0:19:56.004
<v Speaker 3>though this prepared speech in even in four years.

0:19:56.044 --> 0:19:58.124
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I watched some yeah clips of the twenty

0:19:58.164 --> 0:20:00.204
<v Speaker 2>twenty debate, tookrect for the debate, and I'm like, oh, actually,

0:20:00.244 --> 0:20:03.284
<v Speaker 2>Biden is like better than I thought in twenty twenty. Right,

0:20:03.644 --> 0:20:08.484
<v Speaker 2>there is noticeable physical and mental decline, as you would

0:20:08.524 --> 0:20:12.244
<v Speaker 2>expect as an runningly you know, probabilistic prior. You would

0:20:12.244 --> 0:20:15.124
<v Speaker 2>expect that to be true when someone goes from age

0:20:15.164 --> 0:20:17.084
<v Speaker 2>seventy eight to eighty two or seventy seven to eighty

0:20:17.124 --> 0:20:19.884
<v Speaker 2>one under the pressures by the way of the US presidency,

0:20:20.044 --> 0:20:22.244
<v Speaker 2>not the least successful job in the world.

0:20:22.084 --> 0:20:24.884
<v Speaker 3>Exactly, that's what you would expect. And it's like obvious,

0:20:24.924 --> 0:20:27.484
<v Speaker 3>and like the fact that parts of the pundit class thought, oh,

0:20:27.524 --> 0:20:28.444
<v Speaker 3>just a media fixation.

0:20:28.604 --> 0:20:30.364
<v Speaker 2>It's just it's like, no, it's the It's the one

0:20:30.444 --> 0:20:33.604
<v Speaker 2>unassailable fact in this complex room living is that this

0:20:33.684 --> 0:20:35.524
<v Speaker 2>guy is too fucking old to be president.

0:20:35.604 --> 0:20:37.764
<v Speaker 3>Now the other guy tried to like start insurrection of

0:20:37.844 --> 0:20:39.924
<v Speaker 3>January six. So given those two.

0:20:39.804 --> 0:20:41.124
<v Speaker 2>Things, and I'm going to vote third party now in

0:20:41.124 --> 0:20:42.724
<v Speaker 2>New York, which is not a wing state, right, if

0:20:42.764 --> 0:20:43.084
<v Speaker 2>I were.

0:20:42.964 --> 0:20:44.604
<v Speaker 3>In Nevada, I would still hold my nose and move

0:20:44.644 --> 0:20:44.844
<v Speaker 3>for Bud.

0:20:44.924 --> 0:20:47.524
<v Speaker 1>I'm voting Biden. Yes, I hope I'm voting not Biden,

0:20:47.724 --> 0:20:50.044
<v Speaker 1>because I do hope he steps down. But I'm voting

0:20:50.444 --> 0:20:54.524
<v Speaker 1>Democrat obviously across the board, because I am in a

0:20:54.564 --> 0:20:57.484
<v Speaker 1>swing state and my vote actually matters for the first

0:20:57.484 --> 0:21:01.564
<v Speaker 1>time in my life. But you know, I think that

0:21:01.644 --> 0:21:04.964
<v Speaker 1>people are so afraid, you know, of being called ageist,

0:21:05.044 --> 0:21:08.004
<v Speaker 1>et cetera, et cetera. But this is not agism, right

0:21:08.044 --> 0:21:12.524
<v Speaker 1>there is and not saying that, oh my god, you know,

0:21:12.644 --> 0:21:15.204
<v Speaker 1>everyone over the age of seventy five should be put

0:21:15.244 --> 0:21:18.884
<v Speaker 1>to pasture. I have, you know, my thesis advisor, my

0:21:18.924 --> 0:21:21.964
<v Speaker 1>graduate advisor in grad school, Walter Michelle, was in his

0:21:22.004 --> 0:21:24.684
<v Speaker 1>eighties right and was one of the sharpest people I knew,

0:21:24.724 --> 0:21:27.484
<v Speaker 1>and I became friends with one of his closest friends,

0:21:27.524 --> 0:21:30.164
<v Speaker 1>Danny Connoman, you know, non Bell laureate who was then

0:21:30.204 --> 0:21:33.004
<v Speaker 1>in his seventies, sharp up until both of them sharp

0:21:33.084 --> 0:21:35.564
<v Speaker 1>until they're dying day and incredibly sharp. You know, you

0:21:35.604 --> 0:21:38.244
<v Speaker 1>could have very deep debates. But first of all, they're

0:21:38.244 --> 0:21:41.244
<v Speaker 1>in academia, right, They're not running for president, and the

0:21:41.284 --> 0:21:44.164
<v Speaker 1>fact that their exceptions doesn't mean that we should be

0:21:44.684 --> 0:21:47.884
<v Speaker 1>looking at the data that's in front of us and saying, oh,

0:21:47.924 --> 0:21:51.084
<v Speaker 1>but it's ageist, right, No, this this goes for both

0:21:51.124 --> 0:21:53.124
<v Speaker 1>of them, by the way, And you could see Trump, like,

0:21:53.204 --> 0:21:55.324
<v Speaker 1>let's just say that Trump did decline throughout the debate,

0:21:55.524 --> 0:21:57.884
<v Speaker 1>and you could see that someone at some point, you know,

0:21:57.924 --> 0:22:00.164
<v Speaker 1>I was looking at kind of Twitter feeds and I

0:22:00.164 --> 0:22:03.044
<v Speaker 1>don't remember who tweeted this, but someone said, oh, I

0:22:03.084 --> 0:22:05.524
<v Speaker 1>now see the difference between seventy eight and eighty one.

0:22:05.564 --> 0:22:07.924
<v Speaker 1>It's forty five minutes. And I thought that that was

0:22:08.524 --> 0:22:11.564
<v Speaker 1>that that was pretty pretty spot on, because Trump did

0:22:11.604 --> 0:22:13.964
<v Speaker 1>start rambling and kind of losing it a little bit

0:22:14.284 --> 0:22:16.324
<v Speaker 1>near the end. But people are going to so let's

0:22:16.324 --> 0:22:18.884
<v Speaker 1>talk about also how memory works from a psychology standpoint.

0:22:18.964 --> 0:22:21.484
<v Speaker 1>People are going to remember the beginning, right, people that

0:22:21.564 --> 0:22:24.804
<v Speaker 1>first impression. People are going to remember how they performed

0:22:24.804 --> 0:22:27.324
<v Speaker 1>when they turned on the television at the beginning, and

0:22:27.604 --> 0:22:30.004
<v Speaker 1>that was abysmal. That was the worst moment for Biden.

0:22:30.164 --> 0:22:32.404
<v Speaker 1>He had his kind of freezing moment. It was just

0:22:32.444 --> 0:22:34.244
<v Speaker 1>like at that point, that's game over. And a lot

0:22:34.244 --> 0:22:36.324
<v Speaker 1>of people turned off the debate at that point as

0:22:36.364 --> 0:22:38.284
<v Speaker 1>well because they were like, I don't want to watch this.

0:22:38.284 --> 0:22:41.124
<v Speaker 1>This is too depressing. I'm done, and that's that's not

0:22:41.284 --> 0:22:42.324
<v Speaker 1>where you want to be.

0:22:42.684 --> 0:22:44.764
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, no, I think I think people have his experience

0:22:44.764 --> 0:22:48.564
<v Speaker 2>where like, you know, after the first fifteen minutes and

0:22:48.724 --> 0:22:51.524
<v Speaker 2>began to see it reflected in like some market prices

0:22:51.564 --> 0:22:54.444
<v Speaker 2>like the price of bitcoin and prediction markets and things

0:22:54.524 --> 0:22:58.484
<v Speaker 2>like that pretty quickly shout out to prediction markets. But like, yeah, look,

0:22:58.484 --> 0:23:01.244
<v Speaker 2>I think a lot of people, uh, after the first

0:23:01.244 --> 0:23:03.964
<v Speaker 2>fifteen minutes, speaking for myself, kind of got lost in

0:23:04.004 --> 0:23:06.564
<v Speaker 2>a series of conversations and texts and things like that

0:23:06.644 --> 0:23:09.404
<v Speaker 2>and social media chatter and like because there was no

0:23:09.524 --> 0:23:12.964
<v Speaker 2>recovering from from that point, right, Like I mean now,

0:23:13.204 --> 0:23:15.764
<v Speaker 2>because it's like not this is why it's like people

0:23:15.804 --> 0:23:19.124
<v Speaker 2>are going to say, oh, well, Obama lost the first

0:23:19.124 --> 0:23:22.204
<v Speaker 2>debate in twenty twelve and then came back to win.

0:23:22.284 --> 0:23:23.724
<v Speaker 2>But there are a couple of things, you know, what

0:23:23.884 --> 0:23:27.284
<v Speaker 2>Obama lost the debate in a way that was much

0:23:27.284 --> 0:23:29.844
<v Speaker 2>more easy to write off to being a one off,

0:23:30.964 --> 0:23:34.884
<v Speaker 2>arrogant maybe performance. And second, Obama was ahead at the

0:23:34.924 --> 0:23:36.804
<v Speaker 2>time that he lost that debate and not behind, so

0:23:36.844 --> 0:23:41.844
<v Speaker 2>he could he could recover. You know, Biden has been

0:23:41.924 --> 0:23:45.044
<v Speaker 2>hidden in some ways from doing all the things that

0:23:45.084 --> 0:23:47.884
<v Speaker 2>a president normally would do. He did not give a

0:23:47.924 --> 0:23:51.724
<v Speaker 2>softball interview during the Super Bowl, for example, which every

0:23:51.724 --> 0:23:54.044
<v Speaker 2>president has. He've been prompted three times, and Biden did,

0:23:54.084 --> 0:23:57.124
<v Speaker 2>I think two years ago. So you know that wasn't

0:23:57.164 --> 0:24:00.644
<v Speaker 2>a good sign. He has reviews to give us a

0:24:00.724 --> 0:24:03.884
<v Speaker 2>down interview with the New York Times, which has beef

0:24:03.924 --> 0:24:06.804
<v Speaker 2>with Biden, but it is the most widely read publication

0:24:06.924 --> 0:24:10.604
<v Speaker 2>among influential Democrats and influential people in general. And so

0:24:10.644 --> 0:24:12.844
<v Speaker 2>why would you not want to let the New York

0:24:12.844 --> 0:24:16.564
<v Speaker 2>Times grill you? He did not, more understandably in this case,

0:24:17.204 --> 0:24:20.404
<v Speaker 2>did not want to debate Dean Phillips, Sir Mariam Williamson.

0:24:20.444 --> 0:24:22.764
<v Speaker 2>But like, look, if you had had a primary. People say, well,

0:24:22.764 --> 0:24:25.924
<v Speaker 2>if you'd had a primary, then Biden would have won

0:24:26.444 --> 0:24:29.564
<v Speaker 2>these more popular than like Devin Newsom or whatever. I'm

0:24:29.564 --> 0:24:30.844
<v Speaker 2>not sure he would have won if he had even

0:24:30.844 --> 0:24:32.724
<v Speaker 2>one of these debates, and the primaries must to have

0:24:32.724 --> 0:24:35.004
<v Speaker 2>like six or seven debates, right, the recent had a

0:24:35.044 --> 0:24:38.084
<v Speaker 2>primary would be to vet Biden and see is he

0:24:38.164 --> 0:24:41.204
<v Speaker 2>prepared for like the begures of a campaign. And this

0:24:41.244 --> 0:24:43.364
<v Speaker 2>is the first real tests and he just has to

0:24:43.364 --> 0:24:49.204
<v Speaker 2>be the worst general election performance in history in a debate.

0:24:49.324 --> 0:24:52.284
<v Speaker 2>It can't be closed. Absolutely, Michael Bluemberg have to have

0:24:52.324 --> 0:24:55.044
<v Speaker 2>Michael Bloomberg. We probably have Bloomberg fans in the Risky

0:24:55.044 --> 0:24:58.204
<v Speaker 2>Business audience. You know, interesting guy accomplished a lot. Bloomberg

0:24:58.364 --> 0:25:00.804
<v Speaker 2>was the next worst performance I've seen in a debate

0:25:00.884 --> 0:25:04.964
<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty. And then there's a Marco Rubio thing

0:25:05.084 --> 0:25:08.204
<v Speaker 2>here or there. It's probably in third place. Right, but

0:25:08.364 --> 0:25:12.124
<v Speaker 2>like this was like again the fact that like if

0:25:12.164 --> 0:25:15.524
<v Speaker 2>I hit to pinpoint, because I'm hypersensitive to like calibrating

0:25:16.044 --> 0:25:18.804
<v Speaker 2>what everyone thinks about everything on like Twitter and social media, right,

0:25:19.524 --> 0:25:21.484
<v Speaker 2>if I had like circle, here are ten people that

0:25:21.524 --> 0:25:24.844
<v Speaker 2>would never ever say that Biden should step down. The

0:25:24.844 --> 0:25:27.484
<v Speaker 2>debates going badly. That's going really badly. Like any of

0:25:27.524 --> 0:25:29.844
<v Speaker 2>those ten people are like this sucks, he needs to

0:25:29.884 --> 0:25:31.524
<v Speaker 2>get out of there. I mean, it's it's you know,

0:25:31.564 --> 0:25:34.764
<v Speaker 2>the elected officials and like Nancy Pelosi's haven't said very

0:25:34.844 --> 0:25:38.284
<v Speaker 2>much yet, but like, I don't know the folks I

0:25:38.324 --> 0:25:38.724
<v Speaker 2>was watching the.

0:25:38.724 --> 0:25:40.044
<v Speaker 3>Debate with last night.

0:25:40.084 --> 0:25:42.764
<v Speaker 2>You know, we've talked about p doom on the show,

0:25:42.764 --> 0:25:45.764
<v Speaker 2>the probability of the world be destroyed by artificial intelligence.

0:25:48.924 --> 0:25:52.084
<v Speaker 2>He dropped the probability that Biden will drop out at

0:25:52.084 --> 0:25:53.844
<v Speaker 2>some point between now and the convention.

0:25:53.924 --> 0:25:55.564
<v Speaker 3>I guess technically now in November, the way those.

0:25:55.484 --> 0:25:59.924
<v Speaker 2>Markets resolve at Polymarket, before I began taping this, it

0:25:59.964 --> 0:26:04.804
<v Speaker 2>was around forty two percent or something like that. Now, look,

0:26:06.444 --> 0:26:10.804
<v Speaker 2>if Democratic delegates were free agents and they could do

0:26:10.844 --> 0:26:12.724
<v Speaker 2>what they wanted, I think for sure they would not

0:26:12.764 --> 0:26:16.404
<v Speaker 2>want Biden at this point. However, legally, Democratic delegates are

0:26:16.444 --> 0:26:21.124
<v Speaker 2>bound to Joe Biden. So if Joe Biden wants the nomination,

0:26:21.324 --> 0:26:23.404
<v Speaker 2>then I mean you could have some litigation to see

0:26:23.444 --> 0:26:27.244
<v Speaker 2>what really happens if he's like seems like he's disabled

0:26:27.524 --> 0:26:29.324
<v Speaker 2>or something. It was like a twenty fifth Amendment or something.

0:26:29.324 --> 0:26:32.724
<v Speaker 2>But like, you know, basically Joe Biden has to agree

0:26:33.404 --> 0:26:37.324
<v Speaker 2>to step down. And so there's kind of two levels,

0:26:37.364 --> 0:26:39.604
<v Speaker 2>like will there be some elder counsel of Democrats that

0:26:39.604 --> 0:26:41.764
<v Speaker 2>comes up to him and says, Joe, you gotta go,

0:26:42.764 --> 0:26:46.124
<v Speaker 2>and then will he listen to that? I think it's

0:26:46.484 --> 0:26:49.364
<v Speaker 2>more well, I'll maybe be careful. I think it's fifty

0:26:49.404 --> 0:26:51.924
<v Speaker 2>to fifty. I would buy p drop at forty two,

0:26:53.244 --> 0:26:55.044
<v Speaker 2>and it was like twenty five percent last night. I

0:26:55.044 --> 0:26:56.884
<v Speaker 2>was telling people I'd buy that too, because like, he

0:26:56.924 --> 0:27:00.044
<v Speaker 2>doesn't have any answer his argument, and the polls are

0:27:00.044 --> 0:27:01.924
<v Speaker 2>going to come out in a week or two, and

0:27:02.044 --> 0:27:03.764
<v Speaker 2>like maybe I'm wrong, maybe he'll only be behind.

0:27:03.764 --> 0:27:05.444
<v Speaker 3>Me's already behind to begin with. Right, He's not going

0:27:05.484 --> 0:27:06.044
<v Speaker 3>to gain the.

0:27:06.004 --> 0:27:09.804
<v Speaker 2>Polls, but the polls will come out. There's another freak out.

0:27:09.844 --> 0:27:12.804
<v Speaker 2>You know, if you watch what White House staffers do.

0:27:13.644 --> 0:27:16.084
<v Speaker 2>You know, if you begin to have some people leak

0:27:16.684 --> 0:27:20.844
<v Speaker 2>or go public, give little tell alls, you know, to

0:27:20.884 --> 0:27:23.924
<v Speaker 2>the New Yorker or whatever else, then that could be damaging. Potentially,

0:27:24.324 --> 0:27:28.484
<v Speaker 2>we don't know what like Jill Biden and the Obamas

0:27:28.524 --> 0:27:30.724
<v Speaker 2>will do in people like that. You could also have,

0:27:31.404 --> 0:27:35.284
<v Speaker 2>you know, Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris, who are I

0:27:35.324 --> 0:27:37.884
<v Speaker 2>suppose the two most likely replacements actually in the reverse order.

0:27:37.884 --> 0:27:42.964
<v Speaker 2>I think Kamala is quite a bit like more likelier

0:27:42.964 --> 0:27:45.204
<v Speaker 2>than Gavin Newsom. But we'll see as someone by the way,

0:27:45.244 --> 0:27:48.844
<v Speaker 2>who think she's a very accomplished person but a terrible politician.

0:27:49.124 --> 0:27:50.844
<v Speaker 2>I'd still rather have her than Biden at this point.

0:27:50.844 --> 0:27:52.284
<v Speaker 2>A least she's a blank spite. At least she has

0:27:52.284 --> 0:27:55.204
<v Speaker 2>some upside. At least it's a fresh look, right, I

0:27:55.244 --> 0:27:59.324
<v Speaker 2>would rather have Kamala Harris and increase my variance instead

0:27:59.324 --> 0:28:03.284
<v Speaker 2>of have this seemingly losing not inevitable but like difficult path.

0:28:03.964 --> 0:28:06.324
<v Speaker 2>They are being good foot soldiers for Biden and saying, well,

0:28:06.364 --> 0:28:07.884
<v Speaker 2>you know when it's a bad day now, and then

0:28:08.004 --> 0:28:10.284
<v Speaker 2>I'm sure behind the scenes though, pop are like, be

0:28:10.324 --> 0:28:11.884
<v Speaker 2>you a Kamala Gavin at your moment?

0:28:11.884 --> 0:28:12.124
<v Speaker 3>Girl?

0:28:12.484 --> 0:28:15.324
<v Speaker 2>Oh, I'm sure, I'm sure because you're both it's just

0:28:15.404 --> 0:28:16.164
<v Speaker 2>politicians too.

0:28:29.924 --> 0:28:32.524
<v Speaker 1>Obviously, we both agree that at this point Joe Biden

0:28:32.564 --> 0:28:36.084
<v Speaker 1>should step down. That that you know, yesterday was kind

0:28:36.084 --> 0:28:39.924
<v Speaker 1>of the the nail in the coffin of our hopeful

0:28:40.004 --> 0:28:44.044
<v Speaker 1>optimism that maybe he actually could perform. And I think

0:28:44.084 --> 0:28:46.084
<v Speaker 1>it's it's it doesn't look like it's going to get better.

0:28:46.244 --> 0:28:48.164
<v Speaker 1>And by the way, as we both keep saying, he

0:28:48.244 --> 0:28:51.444
<v Speaker 1>might still win, right, and it's still incredibly risky, but

0:28:51.884 --> 0:28:54.964
<v Speaker 1>let's assume that there is a council of elders, Like,

0:28:55.044 --> 0:28:58.844
<v Speaker 1>let's just play out a hypothetical that he does decide. Okay, fine,

0:28:58.924 --> 0:29:01.564
<v Speaker 1>I will step down. What do we think kind of

0:29:01.764 --> 0:29:05.364
<v Speaker 1>is the best path forward? I would love to kind

0:29:05.404 --> 0:29:07.884
<v Speaker 1>of talk a little bit about kind of what those

0:29:07.924 --> 0:29:12.284
<v Speaker 1>scenarios look like, whether it's Kamala, whether it's Gavin Newsom.

0:29:12.484 --> 0:29:14.164
<v Speaker 1>Last night, you know, as I texted to you, you

0:29:14.164 --> 0:29:18.084
<v Speaker 1>know Mayor Pete question mark because I you know, I've

0:29:18.084 --> 0:29:21.004
<v Speaker 1>seen Mayor Pete debate and he would have. Now he

0:29:21.084 --> 0:29:23.564
<v Speaker 1>is a debater. He is someone who would have wiped

0:29:23.604 --> 0:29:26.364
<v Speaker 1>the floor with Trump in a setting like that. You know,

0:29:26.444 --> 0:29:29.964
<v Speaker 1>there are names of people who have followings, but who

0:29:30.044 --> 0:29:33.764
<v Speaker 1>obviously have issues of their own. So what do we think, like,

0:29:34.444 --> 0:29:38.324
<v Speaker 1>is what's a viable strategy going forward? Like, let's imagine

0:29:38.324 --> 0:29:41.524
<v Speaker 1>that you and I get to advise the Democrats. Wouldn't

0:29:41.524 --> 0:29:42.084
<v Speaker 1>that be awesome?

0:29:42.244 --> 0:29:46.124
<v Speaker 3>What would he suggest? Okay?

0:29:46.684 --> 0:29:49.404
<v Speaker 2>What I would say is that I want some sort

0:29:49.444 --> 0:29:54.124
<v Speaker 2>of open audition process in which there's some element of

0:29:54.164 --> 0:29:59.004
<v Speaker 2>public feedback. So the primaries have happened, Firstly, you have

0:30:00.204 --> 0:30:02.844
<v Speaker 2>some time to work with The Democratic Convention begins in

0:30:03.044 --> 0:30:03.684
<v Speaker 2>mid August.

0:30:04.644 --> 0:30:09.284
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so you have some time to work with. Look,

0:30:09.724 --> 0:30:10.564
<v Speaker 3>in the ideal.

0:30:10.284 --> 0:30:14.684
<v Speaker 2>World, I would say that you should do some fact

0:30:14.724 --> 0:30:17.004
<v Speaker 2>finding first in terms of like how many people are

0:30:17.044 --> 0:30:21.124
<v Speaker 2>interested in this potentially right, and then maybe like literally

0:30:21.164 --> 0:30:24.164
<v Speaker 2>have a debate. You can also, by the way the

0:30:24.204 --> 0:30:28.484
<v Speaker 2>primaries have happened, parties can schedule their own elections, which

0:30:28.484 --> 0:30:31.244
<v Speaker 2>are called caucuses. They have to pay for it, but

0:30:31.364 --> 0:30:34.764
<v Speaker 2>Democrats could say, let's schedule let's pick six states that

0:30:34.804 --> 0:30:38.604
<v Speaker 2>are demographically representative cross section of the US or the

0:30:38.644 --> 0:30:41.644
<v Speaker 2>Democratic Party at least, right, have this debate and then

0:30:41.684 --> 0:30:47.124
<v Speaker 2>have a non binding party caucus. Party one caucus in

0:30:47.124 --> 0:30:48.524
<v Speaker 2>these six states will pay for it. We'll get some

0:30:48.604 --> 0:30:50.444
<v Speaker 2>rich guys to pay for it, right, and that will

0:30:50.444 --> 0:30:54.284
<v Speaker 2>help inform super delegates for what the public preference might

0:30:54.324 --> 0:30:58.284
<v Speaker 2>be and at the public references and the US then

0:30:58.364 --> 0:31:01.484
<v Speaker 2>maybe you default to Kamala out of some sense of

0:31:01.524 --> 0:31:04.244
<v Speaker 2>shiating the VP obviously, but like, I don't look, if

0:31:04.244 --> 0:31:08.044
<v Speaker 2>you're going to take the drastic step of replacing the president,

0:31:08.604 --> 0:31:11.124
<v Speaker 2>I don't think you want to tiptoe around the fact

0:31:11.164 --> 0:31:15.644
<v Speaker 2>that Kamala Harris has also unpopular, and like, what's the point, right,

0:31:15.604 --> 0:31:19.004
<v Speaker 2>if you're going to replace the president. You know, I

0:31:19.044 --> 0:31:21.884
<v Speaker 2>think she should have to fight for it as she

0:31:21.924 --> 0:31:23.684
<v Speaker 2>would have if Biden has said what you should have

0:31:23.724 --> 0:31:25.684
<v Speaker 2>done a year and a half ago, I'm not gonna

0:31:25.724 --> 0:31:28.044
<v Speaker 2>run for a second term, no one would have handed

0:31:28.044 --> 0:31:30.004
<v Speaker 2>the nomination to Kamala Harris. You would have had to

0:31:30.044 --> 0:31:33.044
<v Speaker 2>earn it, and she might have earned it. Candidate's get

0:31:33.044 --> 0:31:36.884
<v Speaker 2>better sometimes their second run for the White House, and

0:31:36.924 --> 0:31:39.004
<v Speaker 2>there are attacks on her qualifications, and I think sometimes

0:31:39.044 --> 0:31:41.964
<v Speaker 2>are unfair, But like I think you have to like

0:31:42.404 --> 0:31:46.844
<v Speaker 2>try to have some element of that process. And look,

0:31:47.644 --> 0:31:49.564
<v Speaker 2>you're almost free because like I don't think any of

0:31:49.564 --> 0:31:51.724
<v Speaker 2>this is about fifty percent, right, I mean it's a

0:31:51.764 --> 0:31:54.284
<v Speaker 2>matter of like are you getting cashing in your forty

0:31:54.284 --> 0:31:55.924
<v Speaker 2>percent equity instead of twenty percent?

0:31:56.004 --> 0:31:57.644
<v Speaker 3>Or I'm not sure where I'm getting these estimates. They're

0:31:57.644 --> 0:31:58.404
<v Speaker 3>off the cuff. But like.

0:31:59.884 --> 0:32:01.444
<v Speaker 2>So in some ways you can afford to have a

0:32:01.644 --> 0:32:04.964
<v Speaker 2>riskier process almost and like playing it too safe.

0:32:04.964 --> 0:32:07.044
<v Speaker 3>But like, look, the sooner and the more.

0:32:07.044 --> 0:32:11.124
<v Speaker 2>Organized a Biden dropout would be than then the better

0:32:11.204 --> 0:32:14.444
<v Speaker 2>it is, right if it's the case that like, look,

0:32:14.444 --> 0:32:19.124
<v Speaker 2>there's one path that looks something like the polls are bad,

0:32:19.164 --> 0:32:22.804
<v Speaker 2>but not quite as bad as they're as we think

0:32:22.884 --> 0:32:25.404
<v Speaker 2>they're gonna be, and then Biden holds on and then

0:32:25.204 --> 0:32:29.364
<v Speaker 2>in early August there's some disastrous press conference and then

0:32:29.364 --> 0:32:32.364
<v Speaker 2>it's truly untenable, right and then it kind of has

0:32:32.404 --> 0:32:36.364
<v Speaker 2>to be chaos at the convention. Right right now, there

0:32:36.484 --> 0:32:39.364
<v Speaker 2>is just enough time to get some sense or like

0:32:39.724 --> 0:32:42.524
<v Speaker 2>even just in polls and they'll remember, you know, someone

0:32:42.604 --> 0:32:45.684
<v Speaker 2>like a Kamala Harris is much better known than like

0:32:45.684 --> 0:32:48.924
<v Speaker 2>a Gritch and Whitmer or something like that. But like

0:32:49.044 --> 0:32:54.164
<v Speaker 2>some type of open audition process, I think, yeah.

0:32:54.004 --> 0:32:57.324
<v Speaker 1>I mean that's I think an open audition process sounds

0:32:57.364 --> 0:33:01.204
<v Speaker 1>good if provided it happens right now, because I think

0:33:01.244 --> 0:33:04.924
<v Speaker 1>that what we want to avoid is like a total

0:33:04.964 --> 0:33:08.524
<v Speaker 1>shit show in August right where there is no unified

0:33:09.564 --> 0:33:12.484
<v Speaker 1>consensus about who should be the nominee. Because I do

0:33:12.524 --> 0:33:15.124
<v Speaker 1>think that at this point, because it's so late in

0:33:15.164 --> 0:33:19.684
<v Speaker 1>the game and people are fragmented and this is an unprecedented,

0:33:19.804 --> 0:33:23.444
<v Speaker 1>incredibly risky move, there does need to be a united

0:33:23.484 --> 0:33:26.644
<v Speaker 1>front and people do need to rally around one candidate

0:33:26.684 --> 0:33:31.004
<v Speaker 1>as kind of the choice and the person who's going

0:33:31.044 --> 0:33:34.164
<v Speaker 1>to get kind of the support and who's going to

0:33:34.164 --> 0:33:36.964
<v Speaker 1>be able to represent well. So I do think that

0:33:36.964 --> 0:33:40.484
<v Speaker 1>this needs to happen sooner rather than later. Otherwise it's

0:33:40.684 --> 0:33:42.684
<v Speaker 1>I think it might end up being a risk that

0:33:42.804 --> 0:33:46.564
<v Speaker 1>just is sure. It can't be worse than buy it,

0:33:46.844 --> 0:33:50.004
<v Speaker 1>But the chances of winning are going to be lower

0:33:50.524 --> 0:33:54.004
<v Speaker 1>because that you know, any cracks kind of in that

0:33:54.084 --> 0:33:57.484
<v Speaker 1>front are going to be exploited. We've seen that, you know,

0:33:57.524 --> 0:34:00.604
<v Speaker 1>the Republican Party is very good at exploiting cracks. And

0:34:00.724 --> 0:34:04.404
<v Speaker 1>there are a lot of undecided voters who look at

0:34:04.404 --> 0:34:08.244
<v Speaker 1>something like the debate yesterday and don't really kind of

0:34:08.564 --> 0:34:10.924
<v Speaker 1>don't know that Trump is actually lying his face off

0:34:11.044 --> 0:34:13.844
<v Speaker 1>in every single sentence and look at these two people

0:34:13.844 --> 0:34:15.444
<v Speaker 1>and say, you know what, I'd rather have the guy

0:34:15.484 --> 0:34:18.284
<v Speaker 1>on my on the left than the guy on the right,

0:34:19.164 --> 0:34:21.844
<v Speaker 1>because you know, he's just making more sense to me.

0:34:22.964 --> 0:34:25.724
<v Speaker 1>And what is it that he said about immigrants, you know,

0:34:25.764 --> 0:34:28.644
<v Speaker 1>taking my jobs and killing people. I don't want that, right, Like,

0:34:29.364 --> 0:34:30.924
<v Speaker 1>there are a lot of people who aren't going to

0:34:31.604 --> 0:34:34.084
<v Speaker 1>do that secondary fact checking, So you need someone to

0:34:34.124 --> 0:34:36.404
<v Speaker 1>do it who's able to kind of do it in

0:34:36.444 --> 0:34:41.964
<v Speaker 1>real time, someone who is able to to rebuff and

0:34:42.524 --> 0:34:45.564
<v Speaker 1>actually kind of show Trump for what he is. The

0:34:45.644 --> 0:34:48.644
<v Speaker 1>other kind of the other thing in my mind, though,

0:34:49.124 --> 0:34:53.324
<v Speaker 1>is you know, last time Trump won, he ran against

0:34:53.364 --> 0:34:57.284
<v Speaker 1>Hillary Clinton, and one of the reasons that he was

0:34:57.324 --> 0:35:00.724
<v Speaker 1>able to win is because she was very qualified, but

0:35:00.924 --> 0:35:04.044
<v Speaker 1>unpopular and didn't run a good campaign. And I think

0:35:04.044 --> 0:35:06.244
<v Speaker 1>a lot of people didn't want to vote for a female,

0:35:06.524 --> 0:35:10.964
<v Speaker 1>like as a female, you know, I I was definitely

0:35:11.044 --> 0:35:14.244
<v Speaker 1>tuned into that. So I think there is kind of

0:35:14.284 --> 0:35:18.004
<v Speaker 1>a it's a little bit risky to put a Kamala

0:35:18.044 --> 0:35:21.644
<v Speaker 1>Harris or Aggretchen in there, because you know, once again

0:35:21.644 --> 0:35:24.364
<v Speaker 1>he'll be running against a woman, and I don't know

0:35:24.444 --> 0:35:27.564
<v Speaker 1>if that's the best candidate to defeat Donald Trump.

0:35:28.964 --> 0:35:32.964
<v Speaker 2>I'm not sure it's Gavin Newsom either, who is not

0:35:33.044 --> 0:35:35.044
<v Speaker 2>terribly popular himself and will have a lot of problems

0:35:35.044 --> 0:35:38.444
<v Speaker 2>associated with the state of California, which is losing population

0:35:38.764 --> 0:35:40.644
<v Speaker 2>and all those things.

0:35:40.724 --> 0:35:42.484
<v Speaker 3>Right, I mean, he you know, looks good in a suit,

0:35:42.884 --> 0:35:45.284
<v Speaker 3>I suppose you know.

0:35:45.404 --> 0:35:49.884
<v Speaker 2>Look, Democrats actually have I think a reasonably talented bench

0:35:50.364 --> 0:35:52.564
<v Speaker 2>of candidates. They did very well in both the twenty

0:35:52.604 --> 0:35:54.564
<v Speaker 2>eighteen and twenty twenty two midterms, which is kind of

0:35:54.564 --> 0:35:58.524
<v Speaker 2>where you get your bench from. I mean, someone more

0:35:58.604 --> 0:36:01.604
<v Speaker 2>unknown like Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania, for example, could be

0:36:01.644 --> 0:36:03.564
<v Speaker 2>potentially a compelling candidate.

0:36:04.964 --> 0:36:08.484
<v Speaker 3>JB. Pritzker in Illinois, the governor of Illinois is.

0:36:08.484 --> 0:36:11.164
<v Speaker 2>This big guy kind of when Trump got convicted, kind

0:36:11.164 --> 0:36:13.404
<v Speaker 2>of gave it a very old school Chicago style like

0:36:13.684 --> 0:36:15.684
<v Speaker 2>take care of Trump that I think could play well

0:36:16.124 --> 0:36:17.044
<v Speaker 2>against Trump's bluster.

0:36:17.124 --> 0:36:19.524
<v Speaker 3>Because the thing is, like Trump is not that popular.

0:36:19.124 --> 0:36:22.444
<v Speaker 2>Either, because popular has actually improved a little bit, and

0:36:22.564 --> 0:36:24.364
<v Speaker 2>in some ways, if we're being honest, I think he's

0:36:24.404 --> 0:36:30.684
<v Speaker 2>run a better campaign compared to four years ago and

0:36:30.764 --> 0:36:33.124
<v Speaker 2>gave a better debate performance than the five previous ones

0:36:33.124 --> 0:36:36.524
<v Speaker 2>he's had against Biden or Clinton. So I don't think

0:36:36.524 --> 0:36:38.524
<v Speaker 2>Trump is easy to defeat. But there have been voters

0:36:38.524 --> 0:36:41.324
<v Speaker 2>clamoring for a long time that like, can you please

0:36:41.364 --> 0:36:42.244
<v Speaker 2>not now many of these.

0:36:42.124 --> 0:36:43.524
<v Speaker 3>Fucking two people again?

0:36:43.604 --> 0:36:46.244
<v Speaker 2>In a country of three hundred and thirty one million people,

0:36:46.284 --> 0:36:48.404
<v Speaker 2>can you please that how many these two guys is

0:36:48.444 --> 0:36:50.884
<v Speaker 2>like really the best you have to offer? And there

0:36:50.924 --> 0:36:53.724
<v Speaker 2>is some upside chance that like a newer kind of

0:36:53.764 --> 0:36:57.084
<v Speaker 2>freshered Democrat. I mean, I don't know, right, but like

0:36:57.244 --> 0:36:59.324
<v Speaker 2>I mean the reason why I'm like, I don't know

0:36:59.364 --> 0:37:01.484
<v Speaker 2>that Democratic Party elders are going to be able to

0:37:01.524 --> 0:37:05.804
<v Speaker 2>agree on some consensus choice. If if Kamala Harris were

0:37:05.804 --> 0:37:10.084
<v Speaker 2>a little bit more popular and people are more confident

0:37:10.084 --> 0:37:11.884
<v Speaker 2>in her quote unquote electability than.

0:37:12.404 --> 0:37:14.444
<v Speaker 3>She would be the obvious choice, the obvious choice. If

0:37:14.444 --> 0:37:15.484
<v Speaker 3>she had the obvious choice.

0:37:15.284 --> 0:37:17.524
<v Speaker 2>I'm not sure Biden would have run in the first

0:37:17.524 --> 0:37:20.764
<v Speaker 2>place for her second term. So I don't think there's

0:37:20.764 --> 0:37:23.604
<v Speaker 2>an obvious choice, and therefore to have some public feedback

0:37:24.124 --> 0:37:25.964
<v Speaker 2>as a coordination mechanism.

0:37:26.084 --> 0:37:27.964
<v Speaker 3>A one more point, by the way, that is important.

0:37:29.764 --> 0:37:36.324
<v Speaker 2>The delegates at the convention are delegates chosen by Joe Biden, Right,

0:37:36.364 --> 0:37:38.124
<v Speaker 2>you actually picking her that to say, I want Maria

0:37:38.124 --> 0:37:39.684
<v Speaker 2>and Nate to be my delegates if I win.

0:37:40.284 --> 0:37:42.324
<v Speaker 3>This nominating contest in New Jersey or whatever.

0:37:43.804 --> 0:37:46.724
<v Speaker 2>Therefore, they are loyal to what Biden would do. But

0:37:46.804 --> 0:37:52.644
<v Speaker 2>it also means are probably more moderate, centrist, demo pragmatic Democrats.

0:37:52.724 --> 0:37:52.884
<v Speaker 3>Right.

0:37:53.964 --> 0:37:56.364
<v Speaker 2>That makes things a little easier because there's like not

0:37:57.244 --> 0:38:01.764
<v Speaker 2>an appreciable like left wing faction among the super delegates,

0:38:02.884 --> 0:38:06.564
<v Speaker 2>and that might increase the ease relatively speaking of the

0:38:06.564 --> 0:38:10.964
<v Speaker 2>coordination problem.

0:38:09.204 --> 0:38:12.644
<v Speaker 1>Well, I think that's a that's a rare hopeful point

0:38:12.684 --> 0:38:16.444
<v Speaker 1>in today's podcast, which has not been very hopeful. You know,

0:38:16.524 --> 0:38:18.524
<v Speaker 1>I wish that you and I would be able to

0:38:18.684 --> 0:38:21.404
<v Speaker 1>come up with a nice little roadmap and be like, okay, done,

0:38:21.484 --> 0:38:24.284
<v Speaker 1>you know, forty minutes and we've saved democracy. Good job

0:38:24.284 --> 0:38:27.764
<v Speaker 1>of us. But you know, it's obviously not that easy.

0:38:27.804 --> 0:38:33.244
<v Speaker 1>This is an incredibly complicated situation. And I feel slight.

0:38:33.444 --> 0:38:35.364
<v Speaker 1>Actually no, I was about to say I feel slightly

0:38:35.404 --> 0:38:38.204
<v Speaker 1>better after talking to but that's not actually true. I

0:38:38.204 --> 0:38:40.724
<v Speaker 1>feel just as despondent as I did before. But I'm

0:38:40.764 --> 0:38:43.084
<v Speaker 1>really glad that we had a chance to talk this

0:38:43.164 --> 0:38:45.044
<v Speaker 1>through and to talk through some of kind of the

0:38:45.484 --> 0:38:48.324
<v Speaker 1>big issues, the big psychological issues, and there are obviously

0:38:48.364 --> 0:38:51.764
<v Speaker 1>psychological issues for the voters too in terms of swapping

0:38:51.764 --> 0:38:55.484
<v Speaker 1>out Biden right now. So I think that that's you know,

0:38:55.524 --> 0:38:57.524
<v Speaker 1>these are all things that we'll need to revisit, and

0:38:57.564 --> 0:39:00.564
<v Speaker 1>I'm really interesting. I'm really interested to see kind of

0:39:00.604 --> 0:39:02.324
<v Speaker 1>what the actual response is going to be in the

0:39:02.364 --> 0:39:06.524
<v Speaker 1>next few weeks. I would say pe drop is actually

0:39:06.564 --> 0:39:09.724
<v Speaker 1>probably lower than the prediction markets have them right now now,

0:39:10.564 --> 0:39:16.004
<v Speaker 1>because you know, ego, ego, ego, ego, ego, and you know,

0:39:16.124 --> 0:39:20.684
<v Speaker 1>Biden clearly has has a lot of it, and he

0:39:20.724 --> 0:39:24.484
<v Speaker 1>doesn't want to drop out, and he's surrounded by people

0:39:24.484 --> 0:39:26.804
<v Speaker 1>who've been shielding him and who've been saying, you did

0:39:26.884 --> 0:39:28.924
<v Speaker 1>such a great job last night. You know, good job.

0:39:29.404 --> 0:39:30.644
<v Speaker 1>How Trump didn't say, I.

0:39:30.604 --> 0:39:31.604
<v Speaker 3>Mean, it's an emperors.

0:39:31.804 --> 0:39:33.724
<v Speaker 2>I mean the reason why like parables like the Emperor

0:39:33.764 --> 0:39:36.924
<v Speaker 2>has no clothes exists is because the people actually it's.

0:39:36.724 --> 0:39:39.844
<v Speaker 1>True, O good exactly. So we're in the middle of

0:39:39.884 --> 0:39:42.764
<v Speaker 1>the Emperor has no clothes, and I really hope that

0:39:42.764 --> 0:39:47.044
<v Speaker 1>the emperor realizes he's naked and is willing to take

0:39:47.044 --> 0:39:49.444
<v Speaker 1>a seat and let someone else come out. I don't

0:39:49.444 --> 0:39:51.564
<v Speaker 1>know if that's if that will happen, though. What's your

0:39:51.604 --> 0:39:53.684
<v Speaker 1>personal p drop? Is it higher or lower than the

0:39:53.684 --> 0:39:55.004
<v Speaker 1>prediction markets have it right now?

0:39:55.284 --> 0:39:57.964
<v Speaker 2>A little higher, I think because of the degree of

0:39:58.444 --> 0:40:03.724
<v Speaker 2>unanymity among the kind of political and pundit class. And

0:40:03.884 --> 0:40:09.004
<v Speaker 2>look in twenty twenty, the kind of democratic elites came

0:40:09.044 --> 0:40:11.444
<v Speaker 2>together in this messy nomination process where it looked like

0:40:11.484 --> 0:40:14.524
<v Speaker 2>Bernie Sanders might win, and like literally all got together

0:40:14.564 --> 0:40:16.844
<v Speaker 2>and they all flew somewhere like Pete boodhag Edge and

0:40:17.444 --> 0:40:21.604
<v Speaker 2>Amy Klobishard dropped out and endorsed Biden right and James

0:40:21.644 --> 0:40:26.124
<v Speaker 2>Climber and the very influential congressman who is maybe the

0:40:26.124 --> 0:40:29.764
<v Speaker 2>most admired black Democrat endorsed Biden, and he kind of

0:40:30.044 --> 0:40:32.484
<v Speaker 2>zoomed from kind of this muddle and like second place

0:40:32.524 --> 0:40:35.524
<v Speaker 2>to winning actually very easily on South Carolina and on

0:40:35.604 --> 0:40:38.764
<v Speaker 2>Super Tuesday. So it is a group that has someone

0:40:38.804 --> 0:40:42.604
<v Speaker 2>shown itself capable of making adult kind of group decisions.

0:40:42.644 --> 0:40:45.924
<v Speaker 2>And again, the problem is that, like you can hit

0:40:46.004 --> 0:40:50.204
<v Speaker 2>this story about Biden's age every single day, However many

0:40:50.284 --> 0:40:53.164
<v Speaker 2>days are left one hundred and something whatever in the campaign.

0:40:53.684 --> 0:40:55.604
<v Speaker 3>Because first of all, he's behind in most of these poles.

0:40:55.684 --> 0:40:57.804
<v Speaker 2>He's not going to like pull ahead after this at least, right,

0:40:58.124 --> 0:41:00.364
<v Speaker 2>so every time a poll comes out, you can be like, Okay,

0:41:00.804 --> 0:41:02.964
<v Speaker 2>the New New York Times Sienna pole has Biden four

0:41:03.044 --> 0:41:05.884
<v Speaker 2>points down in Pennsylvania. Must win the state. You know,

0:41:06.124 --> 0:41:09.764
<v Speaker 2>that seems really bad. Every time Biden has a public

0:41:09.804 --> 0:41:13.564
<v Speaker 2>speaking appearance where it goes mediocre at best and disastrous

0:41:13.604 --> 0:41:15.684
<v Speaker 2>at worse, it's going to be a point of debate.

0:41:15.724 --> 0:41:17.604
<v Speaker 2>And believe me, if Democrats in the media forget to

0:41:17.604 --> 0:41:19.884
<v Speaker 2>talk about it, the Republican attack ads are going to

0:41:19.884 --> 0:41:22.364
<v Speaker 2>be devastating. And you know, just the before and after

0:41:22.404 --> 0:41:26.444
<v Speaker 2>clips of Biden then versus Biden now, and there's a

0:41:26.804 --> 0:41:32.044
<v Speaker 2>cascading effects I think, and you know there will be.

0:41:32.084 --> 0:41:34.804
<v Speaker 2>There's also, by the way, they're also opportunistic effects.

0:41:34.884 --> 0:41:35.644
<v Speaker 3>I don't think that.

0:41:37.364 --> 0:41:40.124
<v Speaker 2>I don't think that Gavin Newsom or Gretchen Whitmer or

0:41:40.164 --> 0:41:43.844
<v Speaker 2>whoever else Rafael we're not would face the same degree

0:41:43.844 --> 0:41:47.284
<v Speaker 2>of stigma if they said, if needed, I will serve, right,

0:41:47.324 --> 0:41:49.564
<v Speaker 2>I mean, they'd be subtle about it and koya about it. Newson,

0:41:49.604 --> 0:41:51.804
<v Speaker 2>by the way, was not very coy about his intentions

0:41:51.804 --> 0:41:55.004
<v Speaker 2>to potentially challenge Biden two years ago. But like, there

0:41:55.004 --> 0:41:57.484
<v Speaker 2>are opportunists who could say that, like I am willing

0:41:57.524 --> 0:42:00.444
<v Speaker 2>to serve, or I mean, you know, someone could say

0:42:00.484 --> 0:42:02.764
<v Speaker 2>that they want to vote registers a third party. That

0:42:02.764 --> 0:42:06.324
<v Speaker 2>probably wouldn't work because it's too late to collect enough

0:42:06.324 --> 0:42:11.724
<v Speaker 2>signatures in certain states. But yeah, if you need it to,

0:42:11.764 --> 0:42:15.364
<v Speaker 2>you could kind of poison pill Biden, right, You could

0:42:15.404 --> 0:42:18.564
<v Speaker 2>like threaten to leak unflattering things that would ensure that

0:42:18.644 --> 0:42:21.964
<v Speaker 2>he would lose and so therefore he's forced to resign

0:42:23.044 --> 0:42:23.884
<v Speaker 2>and Biden.

0:42:23.564 --> 0:42:24.764
<v Speaker 1>That's another risky strategy.

0:42:24.804 --> 0:42:25.484
<v Speaker 3>Well, look, I.

0:42:25.404 --> 0:42:28.804
<v Speaker 2>Mean, you know it's what's the burning of bridges strategy.

0:42:29.364 --> 0:42:32.004
<v Speaker 2>But like, I think the degree of elite consensus and

0:42:32.044 --> 0:42:34.724
<v Speaker 2>Democrats are the party of elites at least by one

0:42:34.764 --> 0:42:37.924
<v Speaker 2>definition of the term, is so strong and there are

0:42:38.164 --> 0:42:41.404
<v Speaker 2>not very many ways to undo that because Biden just

0:42:41.964 --> 0:42:44.964
<v Speaker 2>isn't capable of it, right, he isn't capable of it. Well,

0:42:44.964 --> 0:42:47.124
<v Speaker 2>scheduling in a debate next week, how about that?

0:42:47.204 --> 0:42:47.444
<v Speaker 3>Okay?

0:42:47.564 --> 0:42:49.764
<v Speaker 1>I yeah, mostly agree, and.

0:42:49.724 --> 0:42:51.844
<v Speaker 3>I have another debate. We'll see how you do.

0:42:51.924 --> 0:42:55.324
<v Speaker 2>Maybe that would elay nerves, but like you're not gonna

0:42:55.364 --> 0:42:58.324
<v Speaker 2>let people wait until September to have another debate.

0:42:58.404 --> 0:43:00.924
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. And by the way, even if we have another

0:43:00.964 --> 0:43:03.644
<v Speaker 1>debate tomorrow and he does much better, that's still not

0:43:03.684 --> 0:43:05.764
<v Speaker 1>going to assuage my fear because, as I said, I

0:43:05.804 --> 0:43:08.924
<v Speaker 1>need someone who consistently can perform under pressure and under

0:43:08.924 --> 0:43:12.164
<v Speaker 1>the lights. That's not consistency, that's good days and bad days.

0:43:12.164 --> 0:43:14.044
<v Speaker 1>What if there's what if we're on a bad day

0:43:14.044 --> 0:43:16.804
<v Speaker 1>when there's a nuclear strike? Right, Like, we cannot afford

0:43:16.844 --> 0:43:19.684
<v Speaker 1>that in a president. So you know, I think our

0:43:19.684 --> 0:43:22.404
<v Speaker 1>headline for today's podcast is we thought we were fucked,

0:43:22.484 --> 0:43:25.804
<v Speaker 1>and we're kind of fucked. But you know, let's let's

0:43:25.804 --> 0:43:28.724
<v Speaker 1>tune in in a few weeks and see where we

0:43:28.764 --> 0:43:31.364
<v Speaker 1>are and see what happens. And I hope that, you know,

0:43:31.404 --> 0:43:34.724
<v Speaker 1>people listening to this and listening to the unanimity of

0:43:34.804 --> 0:43:40.084
<v Speaker 1>voices will actually finally do something about it, and we'll

0:43:40.084 --> 0:43:42.404
<v Speaker 1>be in a better situation, or at least a situation

0:43:42.604 --> 0:43:47.364
<v Speaker 1>where variance is on our side, where when we when

0:43:47.444 --> 0:43:49.084
<v Speaker 1>we next revisit this topic.

0:43:49.164 --> 0:43:50.764
<v Speaker 2>Also, you know, again, I'm trying to come at this

0:43:50.804 --> 0:43:53.564
<v Speaker 2>from a little bit more of a nonpartisan lens. Although

0:43:53.564 --> 0:43:55.444
<v Speaker 2>I've said I don't think Trump would make a good

0:43:55.484 --> 0:43:59.124
<v Speaker 2>leader and I don't want them to become president again, America,

0:43:59.204 --> 0:44:01.564
<v Speaker 2>stop fucking voting for these really fucking old guys, right,

0:44:02.044 --> 0:44:04.844
<v Speaker 2>You should age discriminate more. Do not fucking vote for

0:44:04.884 --> 0:44:06.964
<v Speaker 2>people who are seventy five years or older to be

0:44:07.004 --> 0:44:09.684
<v Speaker 2>the fucking president of the United States, the hardest job

0:44:09.684 --> 0:44:12.404
<v Speaker 2>in the world. I would propose a constitutional amendment to

0:44:12.444 --> 0:44:14.444
<v Speaker 2>say you cannot begin your presidential term.

0:44:14.684 --> 0:44:16.244
<v Speaker 3>Past the age of seventy five.

0:44:16.444 --> 0:44:18.644
<v Speaker 2>In the absence of that, I'm pledging Maria that I

0:44:18.724 --> 0:44:21.484
<v Speaker 2>will never vote for somebody age seventy five or older

0:44:21.884 --> 0:44:22.804
<v Speaker 2>again for president.

0:44:22.884 --> 0:44:24.244
<v Speaker 3>I'm pledging that good.

0:44:24.764 --> 0:44:27.204
<v Speaker 1>I will pledge that with you, and I've actually often

0:44:27.244 --> 0:44:30.204
<v Speaker 1>thought that since we have a younger limit on the presidency,

0:44:30.244 --> 0:44:32.444
<v Speaker 1>we should have an older limit as well, So Nate

0:44:32.644 --> 0:44:35.204
<v Speaker 1>we can do the Nate Silver and Maria Kannakova and

0:44:35.244 --> 0:44:38.844
<v Speaker 1>men meant to make sure this doesn't happen again. I

0:44:38.844 --> 0:44:39.964
<v Speaker 1>think that's a great call.

0:44:39.804 --> 0:44:40.564
<v Speaker 3>To action for.

0:44:42.364 --> 0:44:44.764
<v Speaker 1>The end of our show today. Thanks for joining me

0:44:44.804 --> 0:44:48.084
<v Speaker 1>on this emergency pod. I appreciate your time in this

0:44:48.404 --> 0:44:49.284
<v Speaker 1>emergency time.

0:44:49.444 --> 0:44:50.524
<v Speaker 3>Thanks Maria, and for listeners.

0:44:50.564 --> 0:44:52.924
<v Speaker 2>Next, people have an interview that we have pre recorded

0:44:52.964 --> 0:44:57.244
<v Speaker 2>with a special guest, unless there is more emergency news,

0:44:57.284 --> 0:44:58.604
<v Speaker 2>which everier.

0:44:58.244 --> 0:45:00.644
<v Speaker 1>One might be yes, in which case you'll get the

0:45:00.644 --> 0:45:12.364
<v Speaker 1>two of us again. All right, thanks for listening. Risky

0:45:12.404 --> 0:45:15.084
<v Speaker 1>Business is hosted by Me, Maria Kannakova.

0:45:14.724 --> 0:45:15.724
<v Speaker 3>And Me Made Silver.

0:45:16.044 --> 0:45:19.724
<v Speaker 1>The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia.

0:45:20.364 --> 0:45:24.244
<v Speaker 1>This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer

0:45:24.324 --> 0:45:27.884
<v Speaker 1>is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.

0:45:28.644 --> 0:45:31.004
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<v Speaker 2>sign up for Pushkin Plus.

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<v Speaker 3>For six thirty nine a month you get access to

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<v Speaker 3>adre listening. Thanks for tuning in.