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Speaker 1: Pushkin. Hey everyone, welcome back to Risky Business, a show

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Speaker 1: about making better decisions or freaking the fuck out. I'm

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Speaker 1: Maria Kandikova.

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Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silvan. It's is our first emergency episode.

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Speaker 1: I believe is this is it is it is. It's

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Speaker 1: our emergency podcast. You guys heard our voices just yesterday,

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Speaker 1: and we are back again today, Friday, after the presidential

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Speaker 1: elections because we just could not sleep. Literally in some cases.

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Speaker 2: Elections are oh yes, sorry, which gives people thankfully.

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Speaker 1: This is how fried my brain is. This is how

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Speaker 1: fried my brain is. I said, elections instead of debate. So, Nate,

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Speaker 1: last night we were both watching the debates from opposite

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Speaker 1: coasts and about let's see twenty minutes in. I actually

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Speaker 1: have the time stamp on my phone. Six twenty, I

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Speaker 1: texted you, since you know we we were not watching it.

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Speaker 1: We were watching it together but apart, and I'm just

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Speaker 1: going to read my text, I says. I said, this

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Speaker 1: debate is painful, what is even happening? Make it stop?

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Speaker 1: And then I said we are so fucked. And that

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Speaker 1: is when I knew Nate that we had to talk today.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I was getting a lot of texts like that.

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Speaker 2: You know, people know, like I'm busy during debates, I'm

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Speaker 2: probably going to respond right away, but like the degree

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Speaker 2: of unanimity.

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Speaker 1: You responded to me.

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Speaker 2: Thanks, Yeah, look, you're hyph riary the degree of unanimity

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Speaker 2: that I was seeing from from you know, different types

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Speaker 2: of Democrats, right centrist Democrats and left wing Democrats and

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Speaker 2: Democrats who have been very mad at me for suggesting

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Speaker 2: Derek to suggests that having a guy running to be

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Speaker 2: president Untilose eighty six might be a bad idea and

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Speaker 2: couldn't badly and or with a Donald Trump presidency instead,

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Speaker 2: And like, I want to criticize people who change their

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Speaker 2: mind in the direction that I think is persuasive. But

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Speaker 2: like among the media slash pundit class, you have to

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Speaker 2: be really bad when the incentives are so strong to spin.

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Speaker 2: You have to be really bad to get to a

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Speaker 2: point where even the spinners kind of give up.

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Speaker 3: Right, And I'm you know, the.

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Speaker 2: Term preference cascade is sometimes used where people think something

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Speaker 2: and there's a social stigma of saying it. Well, there's

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Speaker 2: no longer a social stigma of saying that Joe Biden

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Speaker 2: should drop out, right, That's like, that's like almost like

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Speaker 2: the normy not normally damn voter you although actually it

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Speaker 2: is Actually I take that back, because like if you

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Speaker 2: look at Poles, and overwhelming majority of voters and the

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Speaker 2: majority of Democrats, not an overwhelming majority of Democrats have

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Speaker 2: said that they think Biden is too old to be

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Speaker 2: president at least for another four years.

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Speaker 3: So look, I think this was, you know.

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Speaker 2: Relative to Look, I actually thought about this ahead of time, Maria,

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Speaker 2: because I'm weird like that, right. I thought there was

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Speaker 2: like a twenty percent chance that I would write a

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Speaker 2: post which I wrote at Silver Bolton early this morning

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Speaker 2: slash late last night.

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Speaker 3: Entitled Yes, Joe Biden should drop out.

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Speaker 2: I thought there was a twenty percent chance of that,

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Speaker 2: but I thought that twenty percent people would be really

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Speaker 2: really mad at me. And now like everyone loves the

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Speaker 2: post and it's like the conventional wisdom and it's obvious

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Speaker 2: apparently right.

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Speaker 1: But like, by the way, you got a lot of

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Speaker 1: shit when you said he should drop out when we

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Speaker 1: were talking about on this podcast about four weeks ago

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Speaker 1: something like that, because you said he could drop out.

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Speaker 3: We didn't say he should should.

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Speaker 1: We said he should consider.

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Speaker 2: And then we launched our election model on wed days

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Speaker 2: and even on Wednesday, and Biden had like a thirty

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Speaker 2: five percent chance of winning that forecast, and that will

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Speaker 2: probably go down maybe quite a bit after the debate.

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Speaker 2: But like at thirty five percent is where I was

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Speaker 2: roughly indifferent. It's a good poker term, right, although actually

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Speaker 2: use that in like regular life. It's like not that weird,

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Speaker 2: but like I was indifferent at thirty five percent between

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Speaker 2: Biden and mystery.

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Speaker 1: And folding, right, yeah, between.

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Speaker 2: Calling and folding, you know, whatever his efforts debate, it's

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Speaker 2: it's a fold. It's not even a fucking close fold, right,

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Speaker 2: It's not even I'm not gonna I'm not going to

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Speaker 2: use a time bank chip thinking about this one any longer.

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Speaker 3: It's not tenable, not tenable to have.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not just even tenable for him to

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Speaker 2: be president for the next six months or whatever, right,

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Speaker 2: I mean, that's a debate we could probably have, right,

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Speaker 2: that might be close, but like, it's not tenable to

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Speaker 2: have someone who wants to be president for another four

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Speaker 2: and a half years give a performance like that where

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Speaker 2: he obviously shows his age, which is what you'd expect

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Speaker 2: because he's eighty one and he wants to be president

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Speaker 2: until he's eighty six. It's not tenable to have this

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Speaker 2: person continue to run for president right now. People are

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Speaker 2: fucking stupid and stubborn, especially old people. Yeah, and they

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Speaker 2: may make a bad decision, but like, if you care

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Speaker 2: about like, uh, defeating Donald Trump, if you care about

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Speaker 2: the kind of you' sure the Democratic Party, and if

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Speaker 2: you care about listening to like the voters who have

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Speaker 2: done you the favor of telling you this for a year,

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Speaker 2: that like, yeah, hey, common sense, you know, eighty one

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Speaker 2: is too old to be president and president was eighty six.

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Speaker 2: I'm sorry, but like this is kind of not that

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Speaker 2: close a decision anymore, I don't think. And in some ways,

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Speaker 2: like I told, like a I'm rambling. I'm sorry, you know,

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Speaker 2: it's I.

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Speaker 1: Told you're allowed to ramble on it, and then I'll

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Speaker 1: ramble after you. Please continue with.

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Speaker 2: This little social event on Wednesday night, and I had

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Speaker 2: a good conversation with women I had met before, and

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Speaker 2: she was despondent about Biden's performance, and I'm like, well,

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Speaker 2: you'd probably root for it to go either really well

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Speaker 2: or really badly, right because the muddling through the status quo,

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Speaker 2: you know, two third chance of losing or whatever. I mean,

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Speaker 2: one thirds in that bad as any poker player knows.

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Speaker 2: But you know, it may have been so bad that

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Speaker 2: it's the thing that saves Democrats from a disaster. Although

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Speaker 2: I still think and the other nominee against Trump would

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Speaker 2: also be, you know, in a difficult position.

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Speaker 3: I'm not Pollyanna ish about.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Oh, Gavin Newsom waved the wine and now he wins.

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Speaker 2: Like no, I think Gavin Newsom now or Kamala Harris

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Speaker 2: has a puncher's chance or maybe more than a puncher's chance,

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Speaker 2: but like but like just you know, might be below

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Speaker 2: fifty percent, but above Biden.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So a few things. I mean, first of all, like, yes,

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Speaker 1: I think that yesterday was abysmal. I mean I actually

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Speaker 1: literally was watching at the beginning, like I do horror movies,

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Speaker 1: like sometimes when something is too grizzly, like I like,

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Speaker 1: you know, shield my face and I don't even realize

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Speaker 1: I'm doing it. And I was doing that yesterday, Like

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Speaker 1: I was sitting on the couch and like at some

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Speaker 1: point I just went like this, you know, I shielded

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Speaker 1: my eyes and I was like, oh my god, this

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Speaker 1: is this is just it was painful, Like it was

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Speaker 1: actually physically painful to watch, especially at the beginning. I

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Speaker 1: think he got a little bit better, but he was

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Speaker 1: just struggling so much, and you could really see his

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Speaker 1: age and Trump, I mean, Trump was making no sense either,

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Speaker 1: but he was confidentially making no sense and lying, and

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Speaker 1: the fact that a candidate couldn't beat that, couldn't point

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Speaker 1: out the inconsistency, you know, the old I was a

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Speaker 1: debater all through school. Like the debater part of me,

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Speaker 1: I was like, I wanted to be like, oh my god,

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Speaker 1: you know you have to you have to do you

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Speaker 1: have to interrupt him here, you have to try, you

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Speaker 1: have to do this, you have to address this. And

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Speaker 1: then Biden just flubbed his biggest points, you know, abortion,

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Speaker 1: He just suddenly pivoted to immigration. You know, it was

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Speaker 1: just it was just really really sad, heartbreaking and also scary.

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Speaker 1: Like I said, I felt like I was watching just

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Speaker 1: this slow motion train wreck horror movie where I didn't

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Speaker 1: even want to see what was happening on screen. Now,

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Speaker 1: what you were saying, kind of the second part of

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Speaker 1: your ramble about people, you said you were rambling. You

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Speaker 1: called it a ramble, So I'm just referring back to

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Speaker 1: what you said. It was a very cocerent ramble. I

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Speaker 1: didn't think you were. I didn't think you were rambling,

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Speaker 1: but then you said I'm rambling. So that's why I'm

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Speaker 1: calling it.

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Speaker 2: You're supposed to say, oh, this look great on me, right,

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Speaker 2: It's like, you know, I'm all right, Nate in.

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Speaker 1: The second part of your incredibly coherent multi part speech.

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Speaker 1: Oh by the way, now I'm going to go on

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Speaker 1: a ramble on a tangent and say that every single

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Speaker 1: time that Biden started saying number one, I was like,

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Speaker 1: please don't do it, Please don't do it. You're not

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Speaker 1: going to get like, we're not going to get to

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Speaker 1: number two. And then he would say like number one again,

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Speaker 1: and I was like, oh no, just just please stop.

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Speaker 1: Stop stop doing these lists. Is this is not good.

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Speaker 1: And other people felt that way as well. But anyhow,

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Speaker 1: what I was going to say is the second part

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Speaker 1: of what you were talking about, kind of the stubbornness.

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Speaker 1: And I've actually seen reactions to people saying, well, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's what will this say about the Democratic Party that

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Speaker 1: they've been like hiding this and blah blah blah. No,

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Speaker 1: so let's go back to something we've talked about on

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Speaker 1: this podcast before, which is the sunk cost fallacy like

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Speaker 1: this is probably the single most important sunk cost fallacy

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Speaker 1: that you could face and you know in politics ever,

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Speaker 1: which is that you know some cost fallacy to remind

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Speaker 1: our listeners putting good money after bad, good time after bad,

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Speaker 1: good energy after bad, basically saying that because we haven't

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Speaker 1: done something to this point, or we have done this

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Speaker 1: and we've already invested, we can't change right. We have

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Speaker 1: to keep going and we have to just continue on

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Speaker 1: the path we're on. Whereas the rational choice might be

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Speaker 1: to say, Okay, you know what. I can't change the

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Speaker 1: fact that we didn't replace Biden immediately. I can't change

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Speaker 1: the fact that we didn't convince Biden not to run

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Speaker 1: for a second term and to step down immediately. I

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Speaker 1: can't change the fact that back in September, when we

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Speaker 1: had more time, he didn't step down. What I can

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Speaker 1: change is what I'm doing right now. And that doesn't

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Speaker 1: mean I'm nefarious. That doesn't mean that I've done something stupid,

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Speaker 1: that I've been hiding things. All it means is that

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Speaker 1: the information the dataset has changed the reality right now

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Speaker 1: isn't the reality of a year ago or two years ago, which,

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Speaker 1: as you pointed out in your newsletter, happens because decline

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Speaker 1: does happen kind of suddenly, and you know, it's not

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Speaker 1: like it's a very gradual process, you know. And we

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Speaker 1: I think we witnessed it yesterday. But what you should

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Speaker 1: say is, Okay, this doesn't say anything bad about me.

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Speaker 1: What it says is that I'm smart, that I understand

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Speaker 1: what's happening right now, and then I'm willing to change

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Speaker 1: my mind. And that is a sign of intelligence and savvy.

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Speaker 1: And as you say, having Biden step down is not

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Speaker 1: guaranteeing a Democratic victory, but having him not step down

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Speaker 1: is almost almost, I mean not quite, but almost handing

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Speaker 1: the victory to Trump.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you know, again, he was at thirty five

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Speaker 2: percent or thirty three percent whatever before the debate. The

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Speaker 2: CNN instant pole of debate watchers had him losing two

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Speaker 2: to one. This is a poll the Democrats have won

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Speaker 2: every debate that Trump has ever participated in, every debate

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Speaker 2: since the first of eate in twenty twelve. That might translate,

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Speaker 2: if you kind of use the back of the envelope formula,

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Speaker 2: into Biden losing another two or three points, and they

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Speaker 2: head to head poles against Trump. At that point he

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Speaker 2: might follod it twenty percent or something in our model,

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Speaker 2: and twenty percent is still meaningly above zero. But look,

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Speaker 2: as you were saying, like, I mean, there's two things here.

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Speaker 2: One is that there has been a lot of new

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Speaker 2: information revealed.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 2: I might have made an inference that I thought Biden

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Speaker 2: wasn't going to handle the debate. Well, but that was

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Speaker 2: just a guess, right, And now we have actual evidence

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Speaker 2: of it, and we have evidence of Biden's polling being

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Speaker 2: stagnant and Trump maintaining a lead after all this stuff

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Speaker 2: that has happened, like Trump's criminal convictions and the economy

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Speaker 2: getting quite a bit better, and Willage being more.

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Speaker 3: Focused on the race. There's also a poker thing.

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Speaker 2: Though, where like sometimes you have a hand where there

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Speaker 2: isn't new information, however you have more time to reflect

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Speaker 2: and come to your senses. Right, you can have a

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Speaker 2: hand where it's like, well, why to call with this

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Speaker 2: hand on the turn? If I'm going to fold to

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Speaker 2: the river on a relatively good card for me, and

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Speaker 2: if you plug it into a solver, it would say

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Speaker 2: you've made a mistake. Well, it's because you had more

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Speaker 2: time to think about it on the river. Maybe you're

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Speaker 2: a little bit tilted or something on the turn, maybe

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Speaker 2: you were distracted, maybe you're playing poker online multi tabling,

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Speaker 2: playing more than one table at once, so being able

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Speaker 2: to say, look, I have thought about this more, and

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Speaker 2: I'm changing my mind, certainly when there's new information, but

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Speaker 2: even when there's not is also assigned.

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Speaker 3: And I think judgment and experience.

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Speaker 1: And character absolutely. Now I have a question for you,

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Speaker 1: so historically, and correct me if I'm wrong. I had

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Speaker 1: the sense that debates didn't affect polls that much, right,

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Speaker 1: that kind of the polls didn't don't move that much

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Speaker 1: in the in the you know, in the aftermath of

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Speaker 1: a debate. Do we think that that's going to change

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Speaker 1: in this particular case, or do we think that it

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Speaker 1: might that you know, this might still be the case here.

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Speaker 2: I mean that much is relative, right, Like nothing has

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Speaker 2: moved the polls more than like about a point at

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Speaker 2: a time. You know, if I had to predict, Trump

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Speaker 2: was one and a half points ahead in our national

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Speaker 2: polling average, which of course national poles don't really count

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Speaker 2: for very much, but it's you reasonable benchmark, one point

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Speaker 2: five points ahead in our national polling average, but I

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Speaker 2: had to predict it might be you know, three or

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Speaker 2: three and a half within a couple of weeks, once

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Speaker 2: the higher quality polls are fully priced. Ten.

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Speaker 3: You know, the problem is.

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Speaker 1: So that's actually pretty substantial.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and that's the wild guess. It could be two,

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Speaker 3: it could be four.

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Speaker 2: I mean, look, the problem is that Biden is not

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Speaker 2: in a position where he's ahead and just has to

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Speaker 2: stem the damage, right and let the floodwaters recede. He's

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Speaker 2: behind and to come back, and he'll be further behind,

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Speaker 2: almost for sure, once these poles are incorporated. Yeah. And

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Speaker 2: you know, one of the opportunities he thought he had

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Speaker 2: to turn around the campaign was the debate. Now there's

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Speaker 2: only one more debate. And believe me, if Biden could

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Speaker 2: like cancer, he probably would. So how is this guy

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Speaker 2: supposed to show the dexterity and energy and flexibility to

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Speaker 2: mount a comeback against a guy I mean, look, whatever

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Speaker 2: you say about Trump, he immediately sens.

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Speaker 3: You can kind of see it on his face. Right.

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Speaker 2: It's like a poker player who realized that like a

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Speaker 2: player on his right is a fucking drunk fish. It's

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Speaker 2: going to donate thousands of dollars to the table, and

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Speaker 2: he's gonna guaranteed to soaking the next hour.

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Speaker 3: An hour, an hour, right next hours ahead.

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Speaker 2: Like Trump knew instantly that Biden was parted terribly and

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Speaker 2: at times was more restrained or at least was like

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Speaker 2: crisp in the delivery. And like, you know, but like

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Speaker 2: that's kind of says It's like Trump still has his

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Speaker 2: political animal instincts intact, and like I'm not sure Biden

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Speaker 2: even has that anymore. I mean, he couldn't deliver his

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Speaker 2: canned lines, he couldn't deliver his closing statement. And as

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Speaker 2: you know, when people get older, they can have days.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I don't want to name anyone in particular,

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Speaker 2: but like they can have days maybe half the time,

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Speaker 2: two thirds of the time, three quarters at the time

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Speaker 2: where they act like their old self, or maybe they

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Speaker 2: do in most capacities in their life. But it's not

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Speaker 2: good enough when you're the American president and the president

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Speaker 2: for another four fucking years. It's just irresponsible. The people

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Speaker 2: in the White House who have not spoken about this

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Speaker 2: publicly should be shun from public life frankly, you know,

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Speaker 2: I mean seriously, some of them will write, you know,

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Speaker 2: big magazine expose's and get book deals and things like that,

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Speaker 2: they're fucking cowards. If you're in the White House and

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Speaker 2: you think you're a fucking patriot, come fucking forward and

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Speaker 2: tell us what Joe Biden's really like, right, don't get

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Speaker 2: a fucking book deal in two years and then say

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Speaker 2: how much you knew all along? You're a fucking coward. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: not like willing to speak or defend him. Er say, look,

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Speaker 2: I'm being honest and I'm going to tell you that,

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Speaker 2: like it's actually not that bad. That's fine too, but

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Speaker 2: like there's a lot of fucking cowards at the Democredit Party.

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Speaker 1: So something that you said makes me kind of reflect

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Speaker 1: on a broader point, which is that you know, our

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Speaker 1: decision making ability, our cognitive capacity isn't equal right over time,

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Speaker 1: and you could have good days and bad days. Now,

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Speaker 1: what we saw yesterday was a high pressure situation, right

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Speaker 1: performance under time, pressure performance with the cameras on you.

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Speaker 1: High pressure, Like you know, you need to perform. And

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Speaker 1: the thing is, if you're running to be the president

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Speaker 1: of the United States, that's when you need to perform well.

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Speaker 1: You need to perform well under those high pressure situations.

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Speaker 1: I don't give a fuck if you're fine on your

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Speaker 1: off days on the weekend, when you have, you know,

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Speaker 1: hours and hours to think about it. I need to

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Speaker 1: know that you're also fine in a crisis situation, when

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Speaker 1: the lights are on you, when you have to respond

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Speaker 1: undertime pressure, when you have to make hot decisions. I

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Speaker 1: want to know that that's when you shine, that you're

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Speaker 1: not going to choke. And what we saw last night

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Speaker 1: is Biden absolutely choking. And by the way, it also

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Speaker 1: kind of reminded me, you know, back in school in

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Speaker 1: political science class when you probably watch these clips two

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Speaker 1: of the original Kennedy Nixon debates, where like Nixon just

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Speaker 1: looked horrible on camera, right, and Kennedy just won because

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Speaker 1: you looked so much better. Sorry, you were going to

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Speaker 1: get another debate and there, Yeah, Bida just looked awful.

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Speaker 1: He just looked like when you looked at the split screen,

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Speaker 1: he looked lost, you know, he just looked like he

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Speaker 1: didn't know what was happening. He was gaping. He just

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Speaker 1: didn't He had no presence, and Trump has presence. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I hate Trump. He was lying. There was not a

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Speaker 1: single true word out of his mouth. But as you said,

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Speaker 1: his political instincts were on. He you know, commanded the camera.

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Speaker 1: He had this chesshire cat grin like yes, I'm about

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Speaker 1: to get all the whales money right here, like keep

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Speaker 1: it coming, and he had the barbs like the you know,

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Speaker 1: I don't know what he said at the end of

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Speaker 1: that last sentence. I don't think he knows either. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's those clips are going to go viral, and that's

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Speaker 1: going to really be well awful. I said a lot

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Speaker 1: of different things there, but I think they're all really.

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Speaker 2: Trump was even more brazen than usual about kind of

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Speaker 2: unapologetically lying, and part because I think he realized that

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Speaker 2: like Biden couldn't fight back, right. I mean, it's what

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Speaker 2: you might call an exploitive strategy, and poker is like

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Speaker 2: I can just keep bluffing because this guy is too

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Speaker 2: weak to call me down, right, he does not have

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Speaker 2: what it takes today to call me down.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the physical thing. I mean, there have been an advance.

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Speaker 2: Of the debate, Republican groups circulating unflattering videos of Biden

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Speaker 2: like looking like he's wandering off or dazed or freezing

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Speaker 2: and like, and these.

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Speaker 3: Videos are.

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Speaker 2: Unflatteringly and kind of selectively edited. So like you have

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Speaker 2: these news organizations put out like fact checks and say, okay,

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Speaker 2: well if you look at the broader context and Biden

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Speaker 2: was like there was one where they're in a field

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Speaker 2: at like the G seven summit and for some reason

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Speaker 2: they're like parashooters. This all sounds very weird. You know,

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Speaker 2: international organizations in Europe is weird, right, So like, of

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Speaker 2: course it's weird, but like, so what will happen is

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Speaker 2: like the fact checkers will show the full clip in context,

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Speaker 2: which also looks pretty fucking bad. Right. It also makes

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Speaker 2: by the fucking old and loss not as bad as

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Speaker 2: the GOP edited special directors cutversion. But the GFP fucking knows,

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Speaker 2: because they seem to care about winning more the Democrats

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Speaker 2: to they know that. Like they're going to have this

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Speaker 2: double hit with these videos where the added version and

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Speaker 2: all the fucking precious fact checkers dutifully show the real version,

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Speaker 2: which is also fucking bad for Biden because he's fucking

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Speaker 2: eighty one years old and he's clearly diminished. He is

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Speaker 2: maybe above average for an eighty one year old, but

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Speaker 2: he is very much diminished. I mean, what really freaked

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Speaker 2: me out about Biden was, you know, Ezra Klein wrote

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Speaker 2: this column maybe back in March or something, saying Biden

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Speaker 2: should consider dropping out and having this emergency lever pulled

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Speaker 2: at the convention. And he just linked to some videos

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Speaker 2: comparing Biden's campaign announcement in twenty twenty versus twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 3: And I saw that. I'm like, oh my god, even

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Speaker 3: though this prepared speech in even in four years.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I watched some yeah clips of the twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty debate, tookrect for the debate, and I'm like, oh, actually,

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Speaker 2: Biden is like better than I thought in twenty twenty. Right,

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Speaker 2: there is noticeable physical and mental decline, as you would

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Speaker 2: expect as an runningly you know, probabilistic prior. You would

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Speaker 2: expect that to be true when someone goes from age

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Speaker 2: seventy eight to eighty two or seventy seven to eighty

404
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Speaker 2: one under the pressures by the way of the US presidency,

405
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Speaker 2: not the least successful job in the world.

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Speaker 3: Exactly, that's what you would expect. And it's like obvious,

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Speaker 3: and like the fact that parts of the pundit class thought, oh,

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Speaker 3: just a media fixation.

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Speaker 2: It's just it's like, no, it's the It's the one

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Speaker 2: unassailable fact in this complex room living is that this

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Speaker 2: guy is too fucking old to be president.

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Speaker 3: Now the other guy tried to like start insurrection of

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Speaker 3: January six. So given those two.

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Speaker 2: Things, and I'm going to vote third party now in

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Speaker 2: New York, which is not a wing state, right, if

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Speaker 2: I were.

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Speaker 3: In Nevada, I would still hold my nose and move

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Speaker 3: for Bud.

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Speaker 1: I'm voting Biden. Yes, I hope I'm voting not Biden,

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Speaker 1: because I do hope he steps down. But I'm voting

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Speaker 1: Democrat obviously across the board, because I am in a

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Speaker 1: swing state and my vote actually matters for the first

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Speaker 1: time in my life. But you know, I think that

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Speaker 1: people are so afraid, you know, of being called ageist,

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Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. But this is not agism, right

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Speaker 1: there is and not saying that, oh my god, you know,

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Speaker 1: everyone over the age of seventy five should be put

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Speaker 1: to pasture. I have, you know, my thesis advisor, my

429
00:21:18,924 --> 00:21:21,964
Speaker 1: graduate advisor in grad school, Walter Michelle, was in his

430
00:21:22,004 --> 00:21:24,684
Speaker 1: eighties right and was one of the sharpest people I knew,

431
00:21:24,724 --> 00:21:27,484
Speaker 1: and I became friends with one of his closest friends,

432
00:21:27,524 --> 00:21:30,164
Speaker 1: Danny Connoman, you know, non Bell laureate who was then

433
00:21:30,204 --> 00:21:33,004
Speaker 1: in his seventies, sharp up until both of them sharp

434
00:21:33,084 --> 00:21:35,564
Speaker 1: until they're dying day and incredibly sharp. You know, you

435
00:21:35,604 --> 00:21:38,244
Speaker 1: could have very deep debates. But first of all, they're

436
00:21:38,244 --> 00:21:41,244
Speaker 1: in academia, right, They're not running for president, and the

437
00:21:41,284 --> 00:21:44,164
Speaker 1: fact that their exceptions doesn't mean that we should be

438
00:21:44,684 --> 00:21:47,884
Speaker 1: looking at the data that's in front of us and saying, oh,

439
00:21:47,924 --> 00:21:51,084
Speaker 1: but it's ageist, right, No, this this goes for both

440
00:21:51,124 --> 00:21:53,124
Speaker 1: of them, by the way, And you could see Trump, like,

441
00:21:53,204 --> 00:21:55,324
Speaker 1: let's just say that Trump did decline throughout the debate,

442
00:21:55,524 --> 00:21:57,884
Speaker 1: and you could see that someone at some point, you know,

443
00:21:57,924 --> 00:22:00,164
Speaker 1: I was looking at kind of Twitter feeds and I

444
00:22:00,164 --> 00:22:03,044
Speaker 1: don't remember who tweeted this, but someone said, oh, I

445
00:22:03,084 --> 00:22:05,524
Speaker 1: now see the difference between seventy eight and eighty one.

446
00:22:05,564 --> 00:22:07,924
Speaker 1: It's forty five minutes. And I thought that that was

447
00:22:08,524 --> 00:22:11,564
Speaker 1: that that was pretty pretty spot on, because Trump did

448
00:22:11,604 --> 00:22:13,964
Speaker 1: start rambling and kind of losing it a little bit

449
00:22:14,284 --> 00:22:16,324
Speaker 1: near the end. But people are going to so let's

450
00:22:16,324 --> 00:22:18,884
Speaker 1: talk about also how memory works from a psychology standpoint.

451
00:22:18,964 --> 00:22:21,484
Speaker 1: People are going to remember the beginning, right, people that

452
00:22:21,564 --> 00:22:24,804
Speaker 1: first impression. People are going to remember how they performed

453
00:22:24,804 --> 00:22:27,324
Speaker 1: when they turned on the television at the beginning, and

454
00:22:27,604 --> 00:22:30,004
Speaker 1: that was abysmal. That was the worst moment for Biden.

455
00:22:30,164 --> 00:22:32,404
Speaker 1: He had his kind of freezing moment. It was just

456
00:22:32,444 --> 00:22:34,244
Speaker 1: like at that point, that's game over. And a lot

457
00:22:34,244 --> 00:22:36,324
Speaker 1: of people turned off the debate at that point as

458
00:22:36,364 --> 00:22:38,284
Speaker 1: well because they were like, I don't want to watch this.

459
00:22:38,284 --> 00:22:41,124
Speaker 1: This is too depressing. I'm done, and that's that's not

460
00:22:41,284 --> 00:22:42,324
Speaker 1: where you want to be.

461
00:22:42,684 --> 00:22:44,764
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I think I think people have his experience

462
00:22:44,764 --> 00:22:48,564
Speaker 2: where like, you know, after the first fifteen minutes and

463
00:22:48,724 --> 00:22:51,524
Speaker 2: began to see it reflected in like some market prices

464
00:22:51,564 --> 00:22:54,444
Speaker 2: like the price of bitcoin and prediction markets and things

465
00:22:54,524 --> 00:22:58,484
Speaker 2: like that pretty quickly shout out to prediction markets. But like, yeah, look,

466
00:22:58,484 --> 00:23:01,244
Speaker 2: I think a lot of people, uh, after the first

467
00:23:01,244 --> 00:23:03,964
Speaker 2: fifteen minutes, speaking for myself, kind of got lost in

468
00:23:04,004 --> 00:23:06,564
Speaker 2: a series of conversations and texts and things like that

469
00:23:06,644 --> 00:23:09,404
Speaker 2: and social media chatter and like because there was no

470
00:23:09,524 --> 00:23:12,964
Speaker 2: recovering from from that point, right, Like I mean now,

471
00:23:13,204 --> 00:23:15,764
Speaker 2: because it's like not this is why it's like people

472
00:23:15,804 --> 00:23:19,124
Speaker 2: are going to say, oh, well, Obama lost the first

473
00:23:19,124 --> 00:23:22,204
Speaker 2: debate in twenty twelve and then came back to win.

474
00:23:22,284 --> 00:23:23,724
Speaker 2: But there are a couple of things, you know, what

475
00:23:23,884 --> 00:23:27,284
Speaker 2: Obama lost the debate in a way that was much

476
00:23:27,284 --> 00:23:29,844
Speaker 2: more easy to write off to being a one off,

477
00:23:30,964 --> 00:23:34,884
Speaker 2: arrogant maybe performance. And second, Obama was ahead at the

478
00:23:34,924 --> 00:23:36,804
Speaker 2: time that he lost that debate and not behind, so

479
00:23:36,844 --> 00:23:41,844
Speaker 2: he could he could recover. You know, Biden has been

480
00:23:41,924 --> 00:23:45,044
Speaker 2: hidden in some ways from doing all the things that

481
00:23:45,084 --> 00:23:47,884
Speaker 2: a president normally would do. He did not give a

482
00:23:47,924 --> 00:23:51,724
Speaker 2: softball interview during the Super Bowl, for example, which every

483
00:23:51,724 --> 00:23:54,044
Speaker 2: president has. He've been prompted three times, and Biden did,

484
00:23:54,084 --> 00:23:57,124
Speaker 2: I think two years ago. So you know that wasn't

485
00:23:57,164 --> 00:24:00,644
Speaker 2: a good sign. He has reviews to give us a

486
00:24:00,724 --> 00:24:03,884
Speaker 2: down interview with the New York Times, which has beef

487
00:24:03,924 --> 00:24:06,804
Speaker 2: with Biden, but it is the most widely read publication

488
00:24:06,924 --> 00:24:10,604
Speaker 2: among influential Democrats and influential people in general. And so

489
00:24:10,644 --> 00:24:12,844
Speaker 2: why would you not want to let the New York

490
00:24:12,844 --> 00:24:16,564
Speaker 2: Times grill you? He did not, more understandably in this case,

491
00:24:17,204 --> 00:24:20,404
Speaker 2: did not want to debate Dean Phillips, Sir Mariam Williamson.

492
00:24:20,444 --> 00:24:22,764
Speaker 2: But like, look, if you had had a primary. People say, well,

493
00:24:22,764 --> 00:24:25,924
Speaker 2: if you'd had a primary, then Biden would have won

494
00:24:26,444 --> 00:24:29,564
Speaker 2: these more popular than like Devin Newsom or whatever. I'm

495
00:24:29,564 --> 00:24:30,844
Speaker 2: not sure he would have won if he had even

496
00:24:30,844 --> 00:24:32,724
Speaker 2: one of these debates, and the primaries must to have

497
00:24:32,724 --> 00:24:35,004
Speaker 2: like six or seven debates, right, the recent had a

498
00:24:35,044 --> 00:24:38,084
Speaker 2: primary would be to vet Biden and see is he

499
00:24:38,164 --> 00:24:41,204
Speaker 2: prepared for like the begures of a campaign. And this

500
00:24:41,244 --> 00:24:43,364
Speaker 2: is the first real tests and he just has to

501
00:24:43,364 --> 00:24:49,204
Speaker 2: be the worst general election performance in history in a debate.

502
00:24:49,324 --> 00:24:52,284
Speaker 2: It can't be closed. Absolutely, Michael Bluemberg have to have

503
00:24:52,324 --> 00:24:55,044
Speaker 2: Michael Bloomberg. We probably have Bloomberg fans in the Risky

504
00:24:55,044 --> 00:24:58,204
Speaker 2: Business audience. You know, interesting guy accomplished a lot. Bloomberg

505
00:24:58,364 --> 00:25:00,804
Speaker 2: was the next worst performance I've seen in a debate

506
00:25:00,884 --> 00:25:04,964
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty. And then there's a Marco Rubio thing

507
00:25:05,084 --> 00:25:08,204
Speaker 2: here or there. It's probably in third place. Right, but

508
00:25:08,364 --> 00:25:12,124
Speaker 2: like this was like again the fact that like if

509
00:25:12,164 --> 00:25:15,524
Speaker 2: I hit to pinpoint, because I'm hypersensitive to like calibrating

510
00:25:16,044 --> 00:25:18,804
Speaker 2: what everyone thinks about everything on like Twitter and social media, right,

511
00:25:19,524 --> 00:25:21,484
Speaker 2: if I had like circle, here are ten people that

512
00:25:21,524 --> 00:25:24,844
Speaker 2: would never ever say that Biden should step down. The

513
00:25:24,844 --> 00:25:27,484
Speaker 2: debates going badly. That's going really badly. Like any of

514
00:25:27,524 --> 00:25:29,844
Speaker 2: those ten people are like this sucks, he needs to

515
00:25:29,884 --> 00:25:31,524
Speaker 2: get out of there. I mean, it's it's you know,

516
00:25:31,564 --> 00:25:34,764
Speaker 2: the elected officials and like Nancy Pelosi's haven't said very

517
00:25:34,844 --> 00:25:38,284
Speaker 2: much yet, but like, I don't know the folks I

518
00:25:38,324 --> 00:25:38,724
Speaker 2: was watching the.

519
00:25:38,724 --> 00:25:40,044
Speaker 3: Debate with last night.

520
00:25:40,084 --> 00:25:42,764
Speaker 2: You know, we've talked about p doom on the show,

521
00:25:42,764 --> 00:25:45,764
Speaker 2: the probability of the world be destroyed by artificial intelligence.

522
00:25:48,924 --> 00:25:52,084
Speaker 2: He dropped the probability that Biden will drop out at

523
00:25:52,084 --> 00:25:53,844
Speaker 2: some point between now and the convention.

524
00:25:53,924 --> 00:25:55,564
Speaker 3: I guess technically now in November, the way those.

525
00:25:55,484 --> 00:25:59,924
Speaker 2: Markets resolve at Polymarket, before I began taping this, it

526
00:25:59,964 --> 00:26:04,804
Speaker 2: was around forty two percent or something like that. Now, look,

527
00:26:06,444 --> 00:26:10,804
Speaker 2: if Democratic delegates were free agents and they could do

528
00:26:10,844 --> 00:26:12,724
Speaker 2: what they wanted, I think for sure they would not

529
00:26:12,764 --> 00:26:16,404
Speaker 2: want Biden at this point. However, legally, Democratic delegates are

530
00:26:16,444 --> 00:26:21,124
Speaker 2: bound to Joe Biden. So if Joe Biden wants the nomination,

531
00:26:21,324 --> 00:26:23,404
Speaker 2: then I mean you could have some litigation to see

532
00:26:23,444 --> 00:26:27,244
Speaker 2: what really happens if he's like seems like he's disabled

533
00:26:27,524 --> 00:26:29,324
Speaker 2: or something. It was like a twenty fifth Amendment or something.

534
00:26:29,324 --> 00:26:32,724
Speaker 2: But like, you know, basically Joe Biden has to agree

535
00:26:33,404 --> 00:26:37,324
Speaker 2: to step down. And so there's kind of two levels,

536
00:26:37,364 --> 00:26:39,604
Speaker 2: like will there be some elder counsel of Democrats that

537
00:26:39,604 --> 00:26:41,764
Speaker 2: comes up to him and says, Joe, you gotta go,

538
00:26:42,764 --> 00:26:46,124
Speaker 2: and then will he listen to that? I think it's

539
00:26:46,484 --> 00:26:49,364
Speaker 2: more well, I'll maybe be careful. I think it's fifty

540
00:26:49,404 --> 00:26:51,924
Speaker 2: to fifty. I would buy p drop at forty two,

541
00:26:53,244 --> 00:26:55,044
Speaker 2: and it was like twenty five percent last night. I

542
00:26:55,044 --> 00:26:56,884
Speaker 2: was telling people I'd buy that too, because like, he

543
00:26:56,924 --> 00:27:00,044
Speaker 2: doesn't have any answer his argument, and the polls are

544
00:27:00,044 --> 00:27:01,924
Speaker 2: going to come out in a week or two, and

545
00:27:02,044 --> 00:27:03,764
Speaker 2: like maybe I'm wrong, maybe he'll only be behind.

546
00:27:03,764 --> 00:27:05,444
Speaker 3: Me's already behind to begin with. Right, He's not going

547
00:27:05,484 --> 00:27:06,044
Speaker 3: to gain the.

548
00:27:06,004 --> 00:27:09,804
Speaker 2: Polls, but the polls will come out. There's another freak out.

549
00:27:09,844 --> 00:27:12,804
Speaker 2: You know, if you watch what White House staffers do.

550
00:27:13,644 --> 00:27:16,084
Speaker 2: You know, if you begin to have some people leak

551
00:27:16,684 --> 00:27:20,844
Speaker 2: or go public, give little tell alls, you know, to

552
00:27:20,884 --> 00:27:23,924
Speaker 2: the New Yorker or whatever else, then that could be damaging. Potentially,

553
00:27:24,324 --> 00:27:28,484
Speaker 2: we don't know what like Jill Biden and the Obamas

554
00:27:28,524 --> 00:27:30,724
Speaker 2: will do in people like that. You could also have,

555
00:27:31,404 --> 00:27:35,284
Speaker 2: you know, Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris, who are I

556
00:27:35,324 --> 00:27:37,884
Speaker 2: suppose the two most likely replacements actually in the reverse order.

557
00:27:37,884 --> 00:27:42,964
Speaker 2: I think Kamala is quite a bit like more likelier

558
00:27:42,964 --> 00:27:45,204
Speaker 2: than Gavin Newsom. But we'll see as someone by the way,

559
00:27:45,244 --> 00:27:48,844
Speaker 2: who think she's a very accomplished person but a terrible politician.

560
00:27:49,124 --> 00:27:50,844
Speaker 2: I'd still rather have her than Biden at this point.

561
00:27:50,844 --> 00:27:52,284
Speaker 2: A least she's a blank spite. At least she has

562
00:27:52,284 --> 00:27:55,204
Speaker 2: some upside. At least it's a fresh look, right, I

563
00:27:55,244 --> 00:27:59,324
Speaker 2: would rather have Kamala Harris and increase my variance instead

564
00:27:59,324 --> 00:28:03,284
Speaker 2: of have this seemingly losing not inevitable but like difficult path.

565
00:28:03,964 --> 00:28:06,324
Speaker 2: They are being good foot soldiers for Biden and saying, well,

566
00:28:06,364 --> 00:28:07,884
Speaker 2: you know when it's a bad day now, and then

567
00:28:08,004 --> 00:28:10,284
Speaker 2: I'm sure behind the scenes though, pop are like, be

568
00:28:10,324 --> 00:28:11,884
Speaker 2: you a Kamala Gavin at your moment?

569
00:28:11,884 --> 00:28:12,124
Speaker 3: Girl?

570
00:28:12,484 --> 00:28:15,324
Speaker 2: Oh, I'm sure, I'm sure because you're both it's just

571
00:28:15,404 --> 00:28:16,164
Speaker 2: politicians too.

572
00:28:29,924 --> 00:28:32,524
Speaker 1: Obviously, we both agree that at this point Joe Biden

573
00:28:32,564 --> 00:28:36,084
Speaker 1: should step down. That that you know, yesterday was kind

574
00:28:36,084 --> 00:28:39,924
Speaker 1: of the the nail in the coffin of our hopeful

575
00:28:40,004 --> 00:28:44,044
Speaker 1: optimism that maybe he actually could perform. And I think

576
00:28:44,084 --> 00:28:46,084
Speaker 1: it's it's it doesn't look like it's going to get better.

577
00:28:46,244 --> 00:28:48,164
Speaker 1: And by the way, as we both keep saying, he

578
00:28:48,244 --> 00:28:51,444
Speaker 1: might still win, right, and it's still incredibly risky, but

579
00:28:51,884 --> 00:28:54,964
Speaker 1: let's assume that there is a council of elders, Like,

580
00:28:55,044 --> 00:28:58,844
Speaker 1: let's just play out a hypothetical that he does decide. Okay, fine,

581
00:28:58,924 --> 00:29:01,564
Speaker 1: I will step down. What do we think kind of

582
00:29:01,764 --> 00:29:05,364
Speaker 1: is the best path forward? I would love to kind

583
00:29:05,404 --> 00:29:07,884
Speaker 1: of talk a little bit about kind of what those

584
00:29:07,924 --> 00:29:12,284
Speaker 1: scenarios look like, whether it's Kamala, whether it's Gavin Newsom.

585
00:29:12,484 --> 00:29:14,164
Speaker 1: Last night, you know, as I texted to you, you

586
00:29:14,164 --> 00:29:18,084
Speaker 1: know Mayor Pete question mark because I you know, I've

587
00:29:18,084 --> 00:29:21,004
Speaker 1: seen Mayor Pete debate and he would have. Now he

588
00:29:21,084 --> 00:29:23,564
Speaker 1: is a debater. He is someone who would have wiped

589
00:29:23,604 --> 00:29:26,364
Speaker 1: the floor with Trump in a setting like that. You know,

590
00:29:26,444 --> 00:29:29,964
Speaker 1: there are names of people who have followings, but who

591
00:29:30,044 --> 00:29:33,764
Speaker 1: obviously have issues of their own. So what do we think, like,

592
00:29:34,444 --> 00:29:38,324
Speaker 1: is what's a viable strategy going forward? Like, let's imagine

593
00:29:38,324 --> 00:29:41,524
Speaker 1: that you and I get to advise the Democrats. Wouldn't

594
00:29:41,524 --> 00:29:42,084
Speaker 1: that be awesome?

595
00:29:42,244 --> 00:29:46,124
Speaker 3: What would he suggest? Okay?

596
00:29:46,684 --> 00:29:49,404
Speaker 2: What I would say is that I want some sort

597
00:29:49,444 --> 00:29:54,124
Speaker 2: of open audition process in which there's some element of

598
00:29:54,164 --> 00:29:59,004
Speaker 2: public feedback. So the primaries have happened, Firstly, you have

599
00:30:00,204 --> 00:30:02,844
Speaker 2: some time to work with The Democratic Convention begins in

600
00:30:03,044 --> 00:30:03,684
Speaker 2: mid August.

601
00:30:04,644 --> 00:30:09,284
Speaker 3: Yeah, so you have some time to work with. Look,

602
00:30:09,724 --> 00:30:10,564
Speaker 3: in the ideal.

603
00:30:10,284 --> 00:30:14,684
Speaker 2: World, I would say that you should do some fact

604
00:30:14,724 --> 00:30:17,004
Speaker 2: finding first in terms of like how many people are

605
00:30:17,044 --> 00:30:21,124
Speaker 2: interested in this potentially right, and then maybe like literally

606
00:30:21,164 --> 00:30:24,164
Speaker 2: have a debate. You can also, by the way the

607
00:30:24,204 --> 00:30:28,484
Speaker 2: primaries have happened, parties can schedule their own elections, which

608
00:30:28,484 --> 00:30:31,244
Speaker 2: are called caucuses. They have to pay for it, but

609
00:30:31,364 --> 00:30:34,764
Speaker 2: Democrats could say, let's schedule let's pick six states that

610
00:30:34,804 --> 00:30:38,604
Speaker 2: are demographically representative cross section of the US or the

611
00:30:38,644 --> 00:30:41,644
Speaker 2: Democratic Party at least, right, have this debate and then

612
00:30:41,684 --> 00:30:47,124
Speaker 2: have a non binding party caucus. Party one caucus in

613
00:30:47,124 --> 00:30:48,524
Speaker 2: these six states will pay for it. We'll get some

614
00:30:48,604 --> 00:30:50,444
Speaker 2: rich guys to pay for it, right, and that will

615
00:30:50,444 --> 00:30:54,284
Speaker 2: help inform super delegates for what the public preference might

616
00:30:54,324 --> 00:30:58,284
Speaker 2: be and at the public references and the US then

617
00:30:58,364 --> 00:31:01,484
Speaker 2: maybe you default to Kamala out of some sense of

618
00:31:01,524 --> 00:31:04,244
Speaker 2: shiating the VP obviously, but like, I don't look, if

619
00:31:04,244 --> 00:31:08,044
Speaker 2: you're going to take the drastic step of replacing the president,

620
00:31:08,604 --> 00:31:11,124
Speaker 2: I don't think you want to tiptoe around the fact

621
00:31:11,164 --> 00:31:15,644
Speaker 2: that Kamala Harris has also unpopular, and like, what's the point, right,

622
00:31:15,604 --> 00:31:19,004
Speaker 2: if you're going to replace the president. You know, I

623
00:31:19,044 --> 00:31:21,884
Speaker 2: think she should have to fight for it as she

624
00:31:21,924 --> 00:31:23,684
Speaker 2: would have if Biden has said what you should have

625
00:31:23,724 --> 00:31:25,684
Speaker 2: done a year and a half ago, I'm not gonna

626
00:31:25,724 --> 00:31:28,044
Speaker 2: run for a second term, no one would have handed

627
00:31:28,044 --> 00:31:30,004
Speaker 2: the nomination to Kamala Harris. You would have had to

628
00:31:30,044 --> 00:31:33,044
Speaker 2: earn it, and she might have earned it. Candidate's get

629
00:31:33,044 --> 00:31:36,884
Speaker 2: better sometimes their second run for the White House, and

630
00:31:36,924 --> 00:31:39,004
Speaker 2: there are attacks on her qualifications, and I think sometimes

631
00:31:39,044 --> 00:31:41,964
Speaker 2: are unfair, But like I think you have to like

632
00:31:42,404 --> 00:31:46,844
Speaker 2: try to have some element of that process. And look,

633
00:31:47,644 --> 00:31:49,564
Speaker 2: you're almost free because like I don't think any of

634
00:31:49,564 --> 00:31:51,724
Speaker 2: this is about fifty percent, right, I mean it's a

635
00:31:51,764 --> 00:31:54,284
Speaker 2: matter of like are you getting cashing in your forty

636
00:31:54,284 --> 00:31:55,924
Speaker 2: percent equity instead of twenty percent?

637
00:31:56,004 --> 00:31:57,644
Speaker 3: Or I'm not sure where I'm getting these estimates. They're

638
00:31:57,644 --> 00:31:58,404
Speaker 3: off the cuff. But like.

639
00:31:59,884 --> 00:32:01,444
Speaker 2: So in some ways you can afford to have a

640
00:32:01,644 --> 00:32:04,964
Speaker 2: riskier process almost and like playing it too safe.

641
00:32:04,964 --> 00:32:07,044
Speaker 3: But like, look, the sooner and the more.

642
00:32:07,044 --> 00:32:11,124
Speaker 2: Organized a Biden dropout would be than then the better

643
00:32:11,204 --> 00:32:14,444
Speaker 2: it is, right if it's the case that like, look,

644
00:32:14,444 --> 00:32:19,124
Speaker 2: there's one path that looks something like the polls are bad,

645
00:32:19,164 --> 00:32:22,804
Speaker 2: but not quite as bad as they're as we think

646
00:32:22,884 --> 00:32:25,404
Speaker 2: they're gonna be, and then Biden holds on and then

647
00:32:25,204 --> 00:32:29,364
Speaker 2: in early August there's some disastrous press conference and then

648
00:32:29,364 --> 00:32:32,364
Speaker 2: it's truly untenable, right and then it kind of has

649
00:32:32,404 --> 00:32:36,364
Speaker 2: to be chaos at the convention. Right right now, there

650
00:32:36,484 --> 00:32:39,364
Speaker 2: is just enough time to get some sense or like

651
00:32:39,724 --> 00:32:42,524
Speaker 2: even just in polls and they'll remember, you know, someone

652
00:32:42,604 --> 00:32:45,684
Speaker 2: like a Kamala Harris is much better known than like

653
00:32:45,684 --> 00:32:48,924
Speaker 2: a Gritch and Whitmer or something like that. But like

654
00:32:49,044 --> 00:32:54,164
Speaker 2: some type of open audition process, I think, yeah.

655
00:32:54,004 --> 00:32:57,324
Speaker 1: I mean that's I think an open audition process sounds

656
00:32:57,364 --> 00:33:01,204
Speaker 1: good if provided it happens right now, because I think

657
00:33:01,244 --> 00:33:04,924
Speaker 1: that what we want to avoid is like a total

658
00:33:04,964 --> 00:33:08,524
Speaker 1: shit show in August right where there is no unified

659
00:33:09,564 --> 00:33:12,484
Speaker 1: consensus about who should be the nominee. Because I do

660
00:33:12,524 --> 00:33:15,124
Speaker 1: think that at this point, because it's so late in

661
00:33:15,164 --> 00:33:19,684
Speaker 1: the game and people are fragmented and this is an unprecedented,

662
00:33:19,804 --> 00:33:23,444
Speaker 1: incredibly risky move, there does need to be a united

663
00:33:23,484 --> 00:33:26,644
Speaker 1: front and people do need to rally around one candidate

664
00:33:26,684 --> 00:33:31,004
Speaker 1: as kind of the choice and the person who's going

665
00:33:31,044 --> 00:33:34,164
Speaker 1: to get kind of the support and who's going to

666
00:33:34,164 --> 00:33:36,964
Speaker 1: be able to represent well. So I do think that

667
00:33:36,964 --> 00:33:40,484
Speaker 1: this needs to happen sooner rather than later. Otherwise it's

668
00:33:40,684 --> 00:33:42,684
Speaker 1: I think it might end up being a risk that

669
00:33:42,804 --> 00:33:46,564
Speaker 1: just is sure. It can't be worse than buy it,

670
00:33:46,844 --> 00:33:50,004
Speaker 1: But the chances of winning are going to be lower

671
00:33:50,524 --> 00:33:54,004
Speaker 1: because that you know, any cracks kind of in that

672
00:33:54,084 --> 00:33:57,484
Speaker 1: front are going to be exploited. We've seen that, you know,

673
00:33:57,524 --> 00:34:00,604
Speaker 1: the Republican Party is very good at exploiting cracks. And

674
00:34:00,724 --> 00:34:04,404
Speaker 1: there are a lot of undecided voters who look at

675
00:34:04,404 --> 00:34:08,244
Speaker 1: something like the debate yesterday and don't really kind of

676
00:34:08,564 --> 00:34:10,924
Speaker 1: don't know that Trump is actually lying his face off

677
00:34:11,044 --> 00:34:13,844
Speaker 1: in every single sentence and look at these two people

678
00:34:13,844 --> 00:34:15,444
Speaker 1: and say, you know what, I'd rather have the guy

679
00:34:15,484 --> 00:34:18,284
Speaker 1: on my on the left than the guy on the right,

680
00:34:19,164 --> 00:34:21,844
Speaker 1: because you know, he's just making more sense to me.

681
00:34:22,964 --> 00:34:25,724
Speaker 1: And what is it that he said about immigrants, you know,

682
00:34:25,764 --> 00:34:28,644
Speaker 1: taking my jobs and killing people. I don't want that, right, Like,

683
00:34:29,364 --> 00:34:30,924
Speaker 1: there are a lot of people who aren't going to

684
00:34:31,604 --> 00:34:34,084
Speaker 1: do that secondary fact checking, So you need someone to

685
00:34:34,124 --> 00:34:36,404
Speaker 1: do it who's able to kind of do it in

686
00:34:36,444 --> 00:34:41,964
Speaker 1: real time, someone who is able to to rebuff and

687
00:34:42,524 --> 00:34:45,564
Speaker 1: actually kind of show Trump for what he is. The

688
00:34:45,644 --> 00:34:48,644
Speaker 1: other kind of the other thing in my mind, though,

689
00:34:49,124 --> 00:34:53,324
Speaker 1: is you know, last time Trump won, he ran against

690
00:34:53,364 --> 00:34:57,284
Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton, and one of the reasons that he was

691
00:34:57,324 --> 00:35:00,724
Speaker 1: able to win is because she was very qualified, but

692
00:35:00,924 --> 00:35:04,044
Speaker 1: unpopular and didn't run a good campaign. And I think

693
00:35:04,044 --> 00:35:06,244
Speaker 1: a lot of people didn't want to vote for a female,

694
00:35:06,524 --> 00:35:10,964
Speaker 1: like as a female, you know, I I was definitely

695
00:35:11,044 --> 00:35:14,244
Speaker 1: tuned into that. So I think there is kind of

696
00:35:14,284 --> 00:35:18,004
Speaker 1: a it's a little bit risky to put a Kamala

697
00:35:18,044 --> 00:35:21,644
Speaker 1: Harris or Aggretchen in there, because you know, once again

698
00:35:21,644 --> 00:35:24,364
Speaker 1: he'll be running against a woman, and I don't know

699
00:35:24,444 --> 00:35:27,564
Speaker 1: if that's the best candidate to defeat Donald Trump.

700
00:35:28,964 --> 00:35:32,964
Speaker 2: I'm not sure it's Gavin Newsom either, who is not

701
00:35:33,044 --> 00:35:35,044
Speaker 2: terribly popular himself and will have a lot of problems

702
00:35:35,044 --> 00:35:38,444
Speaker 2: associated with the state of California, which is losing population

703
00:35:38,764 --> 00:35:40,644
Speaker 2: and all those things.

704
00:35:40,724 --> 00:35:42,484
Speaker 3: Right, I mean, he you know, looks good in a suit,

705
00:35:42,884 --> 00:35:45,284
Speaker 3: I suppose you know.

706
00:35:45,404 --> 00:35:49,884
Speaker 2: Look, Democrats actually have I think a reasonably talented bench

707
00:35:50,364 --> 00:35:52,564
Speaker 2: of candidates. They did very well in both the twenty

708
00:35:52,604 --> 00:35:54,564
Speaker 2: eighteen and twenty twenty two midterms, which is kind of

709
00:35:54,564 --> 00:35:58,524
Speaker 2: where you get your bench from. I mean, someone more

710
00:35:58,604 --> 00:36:01,604
Speaker 2: unknown like Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania, for example, could be

711
00:36:01,644 --> 00:36:03,564
Speaker 2: potentially a compelling candidate.

712
00:36:04,964 --> 00:36:08,484
Speaker 3: JB. Pritzker in Illinois, the governor of Illinois is.

713
00:36:08,484 --> 00:36:11,164
Speaker 2: This big guy kind of when Trump got convicted, kind

714
00:36:11,164 --> 00:36:13,404
Speaker 2: of gave it a very old school Chicago style like

715
00:36:13,684 --> 00:36:15,684
Speaker 2: take care of Trump that I think could play well

716
00:36:16,124 --> 00:36:17,044
Speaker 2: against Trump's bluster.

717
00:36:17,124 --> 00:36:19,524
Speaker 3: Because the thing is, like Trump is not that popular.

718
00:36:19,124 --> 00:36:22,444
Speaker 2: Either, because popular has actually improved a little bit, and

719
00:36:22,564 --> 00:36:24,364
Speaker 2: in some ways, if we're being honest, I think he's

720
00:36:24,404 --> 00:36:30,684
Speaker 2: run a better campaign compared to four years ago and

721
00:36:30,764 --> 00:36:33,124
Speaker 2: gave a better debate performance than the five previous ones

722
00:36:33,124 --> 00:36:36,524
Speaker 2: he's had against Biden or Clinton. So I don't think

723
00:36:36,524 --> 00:36:38,524
Speaker 2: Trump is easy to defeat. But there have been voters

724
00:36:38,524 --> 00:36:41,324
Speaker 2: clamoring for a long time that like, can you please

725
00:36:41,364 --> 00:36:42,244
Speaker 2: not now many of these.

726
00:36:42,124 --> 00:36:43,524
Speaker 3: Fucking two people again?

727
00:36:43,604 --> 00:36:46,244
Speaker 2: In a country of three hundred and thirty one million people,

728
00:36:46,284 --> 00:36:48,404
Speaker 2: can you please that how many these two guys is

729
00:36:48,444 --> 00:36:50,884
Speaker 2: like really the best you have to offer? And there

730
00:36:50,924 --> 00:36:53,724
Speaker 2: is some upside chance that like a newer kind of

731
00:36:53,764 --> 00:36:57,084
Speaker 2: freshered Democrat. I mean, I don't know, right, but like

732
00:36:57,244 --> 00:36:59,324
Speaker 2: I mean the reason why I'm like, I don't know

733
00:36:59,364 --> 00:37:01,484
Speaker 2: that Democratic Party elders are going to be able to

734
00:37:01,524 --> 00:37:05,804
Speaker 2: agree on some consensus choice. If if Kamala Harris were

735
00:37:05,804 --> 00:37:10,084
Speaker 2: a little bit more popular and people are more confident

736
00:37:10,084 --> 00:37:11,884
Speaker 2: in her quote unquote electability than.

737
00:37:12,404 --> 00:37:14,444
Speaker 3: She would be the obvious choice, the obvious choice. If

738
00:37:14,444 --> 00:37:15,484
Speaker 3: she had the obvious choice.

739
00:37:15,284 --> 00:37:17,524
Speaker 2: I'm not sure Biden would have run in the first

740
00:37:17,524 --> 00:37:20,764
Speaker 2: place for her second term. So I don't think there's

741
00:37:20,764 --> 00:37:23,604
Speaker 2: an obvious choice, and therefore to have some public feedback

742
00:37:24,124 --> 00:37:25,964
Speaker 2: as a coordination mechanism.

743
00:37:26,084 --> 00:37:27,964
Speaker 3: A one more point, by the way, that is important.

744
00:37:29,764 --> 00:37:36,324
Speaker 2: The delegates at the convention are delegates chosen by Joe Biden, Right,

745
00:37:36,364 --> 00:37:38,124
Speaker 2: you actually picking her that to say, I want Maria

746
00:37:38,124 --> 00:37:39,684
Speaker 2: and Nate to be my delegates if I win.

747
00:37:40,284 --> 00:37:42,324
Speaker 3: This nominating contest in New Jersey or whatever.

748
00:37:43,804 --> 00:37:46,724
Speaker 2: Therefore, they are loyal to what Biden would do. But

749
00:37:46,804 --> 00:37:52,644
Speaker 2: it also means are probably more moderate, centrist, demo pragmatic Democrats.

750
00:37:52,724 --> 00:37:52,884
Speaker 3: Right.

751
00:37:53,964 --> 00:37:56,364
Speaker 2: That makes things a little easier because there's like not

752
00:37:57,244 --> 00:38:01,764
Speaker 2: an appreciable like left wing faction among the super delegates,

753
00:38:02,884 --> 00:38:06,564
Speaker 2: and that might increase the ease relatively speaking of the

754
00:38:06,564 --> 00:38:10,964
Speaker 2: coordination problem.

755
00:38:09,204 --> 00:38:12,644
Speaker 1: Well, I think that's a that's a rare hopeful point

756
00:38:12,684 --> 00:38:16,444
Speaker 1: in today's podcast, which has not been very hopeful. You know,

757
00:38:16,524 --> 00:38:18,524
Speaker 1: I wish that you and I would be able to

758
00:38:18,684 --> 00:38:21,404
Speaker 1: come up with a nice little roadmap and be like, okay, done,

759
00:38:21,484 --> 00:38:24,284
Speaker 1: you know, forty minutes and we've saved democracy. Good job

760
00:38:24,284 --> 00:38:27,764
Speaker 1: of us. But you know, it's obviously not that easy.

761
00:38:27,804 --> 00:38:33,244
Speaker 1: This is an incredibly complicated situation. And I feel slight.

762
00:38:33,444 --> 00:38:35,364
Speaker 1: Actually no, I was about to say I feel slightly

763
00:38:35,404 --> 00:38:38,204
Speaker 1: better after talking to but that's not actually true. I

764
00:38:38,204 --> 00:38:40,724
Speaker 1: feel just as despondent as I did before. But I'm

765
00:38:40,764 --> 00:38:43,084
Speaker 1: really glad that we had a chance to talk this

766
00:38:43,164 --> 00:38:45,044
Speaker 1: through and to talk through some of kind of the

767
00:38:45,484 --> 00:38:48,324
Speaker 1: big issues, the big psychological issues, and there are obviously

768
00:38:48,364 --> 00:38:51,764
Speaker 1: psychological issues for the voters too in terms of swapping

769
00:38:51,764 --> 00:38:55,484
Speaker 1: out Biden right now. So I think that that's you know,

770
00:38:55,524 --> 00:38:57,524
Speaker 1: these are all things that we'll need to revisit, and

771
00:38:57,564 --> 00:39:00,564
Speaker 1: I'm really interesting. I'm really interested to see kind of

772
00:39:00,604 --> 00:39:02,324
Speaker 1: what the actual response is going to be in the

773
00:39:02,364 --> 00:39:06,524
Speaker 1: next few weeks. I would say pe drop is actually

774
00:39:06,564 --> 00:39:09,724
Speaker 1: probably lower than the prediction markets have them right now now,

775
00:39:10,564 --> 00:39:16,004
Speaker 1: because you know, ego, ego, ego, ego, ego, and you know,

776
00:39:16,124 --> 00:39:20,684
Speaker 1: Biden clearly has has a lot of it, and he

777
00:39:20,724 --> 00:39:24,484
Speaker 1: doesn't want to drop out, and he's surrounded by people

778
00:39:24,484 --> 00:39:26,804
Speaker 1: who've been shielding him and who've been saying, you did

779
00:39:26,884 --> 00:39:28,924
Speaker 1: such a great job last night. You know, good job.

780
00:39:29,404 --> 00:39:30,644
Speaker 1: How Trump didn't say, I.

781
00:39:30,604 --> 00:39:31,604
Speaker 3: Mean, it's an emperors.

782
00:39:31,804 --> 00:39:33,724
Speaker 2: I mean the reason why like parables like the Emperor

783
00:39:33,764 --> 00:39:36,924
Speaker 2: has no clothes exists is because the people actually it's.

784
00:39:36,724 --> 00:39:39,844
Speaker 1: True, O good exactly. So we're in the middle of

785
00:39:39,884 --> 00:39:42,764
Speaker 1: the Emperor has no clothes, and I really hope that

786
00:39:42,764 --> 00:39:47,044
Speaker 1: the emperor realizes he's naked and is willing to take

787
00:39:47,044 --> 00:39:49,444
Speaker 1: a seat and let someone else come out. I don't

788
00:39:49,444 --> 00:39:51,564
Speaker 1: know if that's if that will happen, though. What's your

789
00:39:51,604 --> 00:39:53,684
Speaker 1: personal p drop? Is it higher or lower than the

790
00:39:53,684 --> 00:39:55,004
Speaker 1: prediction markets have it right now?

791
00:39:55,284 --> 00:39:57,964
Speaker 2: A little higher, I think because of the degree of

792
00:39:58,444 --> 00:40:03,724
Speaker 2: unanymity among the kind of political and pundit class. And

793
00:40:03,884 --> 00:40:09,004
Speaker 2: look in twenty twenty, the kind of democratic elites came

794
00:40:09,044 --> 00:40:11,444
Speaker 2: together in this messy nomination process where it looked like

795
00:40:11,484 --> 00:40:14,524
Speaker 2: Bernie Sanders might win, and like literally all got together

796
00:40:14,564 --> 00:40:16,844
Speaker 2: and they all flew somewhere like Pete boodhag Edge and

797
00:40:17,444 --> 00:40:21,604
Speaker 2: Amy Klobishard dropped out and endorsed Biden right and James

798
00:40:21,644 --> 00:40:26,124
Speaker 2: Climber and the very influential congressman who is maybe the

799
00:40:26,124 --> 00:40:29,764
Speaker 2: most admired black Democrat endorsed Biden, and he kind of

800
00:40:30,044 --> 00:40:32,484
Speaker 2: zoomed from kind of this muddle and like second place

801
00:40:32,524 --> 00:40:35,524
Speaker 2: to winning actually very easily on South Carolina and on

802
00:40:35,604 --> 00:40:38,764
Speaker 2: Super Tuesday. So it is a group that has someone

803
00:40:38,804 --> 00:40:42,604
Speaker 2: shown itself capable of making adult kind of group decisions.

804
00:40:42,644 --> 00:40:45,924
Speaker 2: And again, the problem is that, like you can hit

805
00:40:46,004 --> 00:40:50,204
Speaker 2: this story about Biden's age every single day, However many

806
00:40:50,284 --> 00:40:53,164
Speaker 2: days are left one hundred and something whatever in the campaign.

807
00:40:53,684 --> 00:40:55,604
Speaker 3: Because first of all, he's behind in most of these poles.

808
00:40:55,684 --> 00:40:57,804
Speaker 2: He's not going to like pull ahead after this at least, right,

809
00:40:58,124 --> 00:41:00,364
Speaker 2: so every time a poll comes out, you can be like, Okay,

810
00:41:00,804 --> 00:41:02,964
Speaker 2: the New New York Times Sienna pole has Biden four

811
00:41:03,044 --> 00:41:05,884
Speaker 2: points down in Pennsylvania. Must win the state. You know,

812
00:41:06,124 --> 00:41:09,764
Speaker 2: that seems really bad. Every time Biden has a public

813
00:41:09,804 --> 00:41:13,564
Speaker 2: speaking appearance where it goes mediocre at best and disastrous

814
00:41:13,604 --> 00:41:15,684
Speaker 2: at worse, it's going to be a point of debate.

815
00:41:15,724 --> 00:41:17,604
Speaker 2: And believe me, if Democrats in the media forget to

816
00:41:17,604 --> 00:41:19,884
Speaker 2: talk about it, the Republican attack ads are going to

817
00:41:19,884 --> 00:41:22,364
Speaker 2: be devastating. And you know, just the before and after

818
00:41:22,404 --> 00:41:26,444
Speaker 2: clips of Biden then versus Biden now, and there's a

819
00:41:26,804 --> 00:41:32,044
Speaker 2: cascading effects I think, and you know there will be.

820
00:41:32,084 --> 00:41:34,804
Speaker 2: There's also, by the way, they're also opportunistic effects.

821
00:41:34,884 --> 00:41:35,644
Speaker 3: I don't think that.

822
00:41:37,364 --> 00:41:40,124
Speaker 2: I don't think that Gavin Newsom or Gretchen Whitmer or

823
00:41:40,164 --> 00:41:43,844
Speaker 2: whoever else Rafael we're not would face the same degree

824
00:41:43,844 --> 00:41:47,284
Speaker 2: of stigma if they said, if needed, I will serve, right,

825
00:41:47,324 --> 00:41:49,564
Speaker 2: I mean, they'd be subtle about it and koya about it. Newson,

826
00:41:49,604 --> 00:41:51,804
Speaker 2: by the way, was not very coy about his intentions

827
00:41:51,804 --> 00:41:55,004
Speaker 2: to potentially challenge Biden two years ago. But like, there

828
00:41:55,004 --> 00:41:57,484
Speaker 2: are opportunists who could say that, like I am willing

829
00:41:57,524 --> 00:42:00,444
Speaker 2: to serve, or I mean, you know, someone could say

830
00:42:00,484 --> 00:42:02,764
Speaker 2: that they want to vote registers a third party. That

831
00:42:02,764 --> 00:42:06,324
Speaker 2: probably wouldn't work because it's too late to collect enough

832
00:42:06,324 --> 00:42:11,724
Speaker 2: signatures in certain states. But yeah, if you need it to,

833
00:42:11,764 --> 00:42:15,364
Speaker 2: you could kind of poison pill Biden, right, You could

834
00:42:15,404 --> 00:42:18,564
Speaker 2: like threaten to leak unflattering things that would ensure that

835
00:42:18,644 --> 00:42:21,964
Speaker 2: he would lose and so therefore he's forced to resign

836
00:42:23,044 --> 00:42:23,884
Speaker 2: and Biden.

837
00:42:23,564 --> 00:42:24,764
Speaker 1: That's another risky strategy.

838
00:42:24,804 --> 00:42:25,484
Speaker 3: Well, look, I.

839
00:42:25,404 --> 00:42:28,804
Speaker 2: Mean, you know it's what's the burning of bridges strategy.

840
00:42:29,364 --> 00:42:32,004
Speaker 2: But like, I think the degree of elite consensus and

841
00:42:32,044 --> 00:42:34,724
Speaker 2: Democrats are the party of elites at least by one

842
00:42:34,764 --> 00:42:37,924
Speaker 2: definition of the term, is so strong and there are

843
00:42:38,164 --> 00:42:41,404
Speaker 2: not very many ways to undo that because Biden just

844
00:42:41,964 --> 00:42:44,964
Speaker 2: isn't capable of it, right, he isn't capable of it. Well,

845
00:42:44,964 --> 00:42:47,124
Speaker 2: scheduling in a debate next week, how about that?

846
00:42:47,204 --> 00:42:47,444
Speaker 3: Okay?

847
00:42:47,564 --> 00:42:49,764
Speaker 1: I yeah, mostly agree, and.

848
00:42:49,724 --> 00:42:51,844
Speaker 3: I have another debate. We'll see how you do.

849
00:42:51,924 --> 00:42:55,324
Speaker 2: Maybe that would elay nerves, but like you're not gonna

850
00:42:55,364 --> 00:42:58,324
Speaker 2: let people wait until September to have another debate.

851
00:42:58,404 --> 00:43:00,924
Speaker 1: Yeah. And by the way, even if we have another

852
00:43:00,964 --> 00:43:03,644
Speaker 1: debate tomorrow and he does much better, that's still not

853
00:43:03,684 --> 00:43:05,764
Speaker 1: going to assuage my fear because, as I said, I

854
00:43:05,804 --> 00:43:08,924
Speaker 1: need someone who consistently can perform under pressure and under

855
00:43:08,924 --> 00:43:12,164
Speaker 1: the lights. That's not consistency, that's good days and bad days.

856
00:43:12,164 --> 00:43:14,044
Speaker 1: What if there's what if we're on a bad day

857
00:43:14,044 --> 00:43:16,804
Speaker 1: when there's a nuclear strike? Right, Like, we cannot afford

858
00:43:16,844 --> 00:43:19,684
Speaker 1: that in a president. So you know, I think our

859
00:43:19,684 --> 00:43:22,404
Speaker 1: headline for today's podcast is we thought we were fucked,

860
00:43:22,484 --> 00:43:25,804
Speaker 1: and we're kind of fucked. But you know, let's let's

861
00:43:25,804 --> 00:43:28,724
Speaker 1: tune in in a few weeks and see where we

862
00:43:28,764 --> 00:43:31,364
Speaker 1: are and see what happens. And I hope that, you know,

863
00:43:31,404 --> 00:43:34,724
Speaker 1: people listening to this and listening to the unanimity of

864
00:43:34,804 --> 00:43:40,084
Speaker 1: voices will actually finally do something about it, and we'll

865
00:43:40,084 --> 00:43:42,404
Speaker 1: be in a better situation, or at least a situation

866
00:43:42,604 --> 00:43:47,364
Speaker 1: where variance is on our side, where when we when

867
00:43:47,444 --> 00:43:49,084
Speaker 1: we next revisit this topic.

868
00:43:49,164 --> 00:43:50,764
Speaker 2: Also, you know, again, I'm trying to come at this

869
00:43:50,804 --> 00:43:53,564
Speaker 2: from a little bit more of a nonpartisan lens. Although

870
00:43:53,564 --> 00:43:55,444
Speaker 2: I've said I don't think Trump would make a good

871
00:43:55,484 --> 00:43:59,124
Speaker 2: leader and I don't want them to become president again, America,

872
00:43:59,204 --> 00:44:01,564
Speaker 2: stop fucking voting for these really fucking old guys, right,

873
00:44:02,044 --> 00:44:04,844
Speaker 2: You should age discriminate more. Do not fucking vote for

874
00:44:04,884 --> 00:44:06,964
Speaker 2: people who are seventy five years or older to be

875
00:44:07,004 --> 00:44:09,684
Speaker 2: the fucking president of the United States, the hardest job

876
00:44:09,684 --> 00:44:12,404
Speaker 2: in the world. I would propose a constitutional amendment to

877
00:44:12,444 --> 00:44:14,444
Speaker 2: say you cannot begin your presidential term.

878
00:44:14,684 --> 00:44:16,244
Speaker 3: Past the age of seventy five.

879
00:44:16,444 --> 00:44:18,644
Speaker 2: In the absence of that, I'm pledging Maria that I

880
00:44:18,724 --> 00:44:21,484
Speaker 2: will never vote for somebody age seventy five or older

881
00:44:21,884 --> 00:44:22,804
Speaker 2: again for president.

882
00:44:22,884 --> 00:44:24,244
Speaker 3: I'm pledging that good.

883
00:44:24,764 --> 00:44:27,204
Speaker 1: I will pledge that with you, and I've actually often

884
00:44:27,244 --> 00:44:30,204
Speaker 1: thought that since we have a younger limit on the presidency,

885
00:44:30,244 --> 00:44:32,444
Speaker 1: we should have an older limit as well, So Nate

886
00:44:32,644 --> 00:44:35,204
Speaker 1: we can do the Nate Silver and Maria Kannakova and

887
00:44:35,244 --> 00:44:38,844
Speaker 1: men meant to make sure this doesn't happen again. I

888
00:44:38,844 --> 00:44:39,964
Speaker 1: think that's a great call.

889
00:44:39,804 --> 00:44:40,564
Speaker 3: To action for.

890
00:44:42,364 --> 00:44:44,764
Speaker 1: The end of our show today. Thanks for joining me

891
00:44:44,804 --> 00:44:48,084
Speaker 1: on this emergency pod. I appreciate your time in this

892
00:44:48,404 --> 00:44:49,284
Speaker 1: emergency time.

893
00:44:49,444 --> 00:44:50,524
Speaker 3: Thanks Maria, and for listeners.

894
00:44:50,564 --> 00:44:52,924
Speaker 2: Next, people have an interview that we have pre recorded

895
00:44:52,964 --> 00:44:57,244
Speaker 2: with a special guest, unless there is more emergency news,

896
00:44:57,284 --> 00:44:58,604
Speaker 2: which everier.

897
00:44:58,244 --> 00:45:00,644
Speaker 1: One might be yes, in which case you'll get the

898
00:45:00,644 --> 00:45:12,364
Speaker 1: two of us again. All right, thanks for listening. Risky

899
00:45:12,404 --> 00:45:15,084
Speaker 1: Business is hosted by Me, Maria Kannakova.

900
00:45:14,724 --> 00:45:15,724
Speaker 3: And Me Made Silver.

901
00:45:16,044 --> 00:45:19,724
Speaker 1: The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia.

902
00:45:20,364 --> 00:45:24,244
Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer

903
00:45:24,324 --> 00:45:27,884
Speaker 1: is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.

904
00:45:28,644 --> 00:45:31,004
Speaker 2: And if you want to listen to an ad free version,

905
00:45:31,044 --> 00:45:32,364
Speaker 2: sign up for Pushkin Plus.

906
00:45:32,364 --> 00:45:34,724
Speaker 3: For six thirty nine a month you get access to

907
00:45:34,804 --> 00:45:36,964
Speaker 3: adre listening. Thanks for tuning in.