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Speaker 1: The most valuable commandity I know of his information. Wouldn't

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Speaker 1: you agree on five dollars? This is a regular lesson?

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Speaker 1: How about a tackle? Hit one man? You're saying humans

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Speaker 1: need fantasy to make life bearable, Humans need fantasy to

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Speaker 1: be human. My goodness, that was good.

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Speaker 2: I suppose bests, relentless, refusing to give up.

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Speaker 3: All right, hit that horn, babe, let's there. Welcome to

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Speaker 3: the Action Network Fantasy Flex Podcast presented by Prize Picks.

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Speaker 3: I am your host, Chris Raybond, joined as always by

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Speaker 3: my dude.

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Speaker 1: Sean Kerner. Sean, what's going on man? Not much?

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Speaker 2: Still recovering from the Charger game we went to the

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Speaker 2: other day and whatever drink we had that was vertequila.

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Speaker 2: I still don't know what it was. But doing good

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Speaker 2: and looks like you're wearing Keishawn Johnson Jersey.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, we're wearing the Kishwan, the nineteen ninety six

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Speaker 3: keishn Jersey.

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Speaker 1: Man.

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Speaker 3: I think it was a one in fifteen year for

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Speaker 3: the Jets with a rich Coe type, but still remember

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Speaker 3: that year. Kishan ended up writing the book a year later.

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Speaker 3: I think, just give me the damn ball. So good memories,

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Speaker 3: but yeah, man, it was fun. The Charger game was fun.

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Speaker 3: We got to see some Trey lance, and hopefully he's

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Speaker 3: not a fantasy bust, which is what we're going to

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Speaker 3: be talking about on this show. We're going to talk

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Speaker 3: all about fantasy busts at each different position. So I'm

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Speaker 3: going to ask you, Sean first, how do you define

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Speaker 3: a bust. It's kind of one of those things that

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Speaker 3: there's no set definition, I think, but personally, how do

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Speaker 3: you go about defining a fantasy bust?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll just make it simple. It's it's players I

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Speaker 2: think are being drafted too early, and you know this

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Speaker 2: could be due to injury concerns. Players I think are

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Speaker 2: you for regression. Maybe they won't be getting as much

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Speaker 2: playing time or volume as the market may think, or

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Speaker 2: they just don't jive with my draft strategy. If a

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Speaker 2: player is ranked in line with AVP, but he's a

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Speaker 2: top a massive tier where I know I can get

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Speaker 2: a similar player around or two later, all kind of

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Speaker 2: pass up on that guy or consider him a bust

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Speaker 2: because you know you can get similar value later. So

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Speaker 2: it bust is a very hard definition, But it's really

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Speaker 2: just guys that I'm not getting much of because of

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Speaker 2: the market's much higher.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's how I kind of look at it.

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Speaker 3: I think you have a risk tolerance that kind of

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Speaker 3: should increase as the draft progresses, and so a lot

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Speaker 3: of times busts for me are just guys that are

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Speaker 3: going that are too risky for how high they're going.

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Speaker 3: And we'll get into a classic example of that in

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Speaker 3: a second with running backs.

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Speaker 1: But I do want to.

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Speaker 3: Ask you about bust in relation to injuries, because I

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Speaker 3: think I would say the majority of players that do

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Speaker 3: bust it usually has.

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Speaker 1: Something to do with an injury.

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Speaker 3: But it's really tough to predict or project injuries, especially

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Speaker 3: when you're talking about a median projection.

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Speaker 1: So how do you go about kind of.

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Speaker 3: Accounting for injuries at the various positions. I know you

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Speaker 3: project a slightly different amount of games played for each position.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's probably the hardest thing when it comes to

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Speaker 2: projections is trying to factor in, you know, injury risk

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Speaker 2: or if a guy's actually injured right now, you know

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Speaker 2: if they're going to be available for Week one. So

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Speaker 2: I think that's part of what you said already is

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Speaker 2: early on the draft, I don't want to take on

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Speaker 2: that risk. So we'll talk about him at Saekwon Barkley

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Speaker 2: is a perfect example. Whereas a guy towards the end

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Speaker 2: of the draft, if he's hurt right now, Like I

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Speaker 2: don't know ra Sean Bateman, he wasn't a guy that

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Speaker 2: you're drafting just play Week one anyway, so maybe his

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Speaker 2: value gets lowered a bit and he becomes a value play.

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Speaker 2: So I think it depends on the player where they're

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Speaker 2: being drafted, what kind of injury it is. So it's

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Speaker 2: a really complicated part of this. But like you said,

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Speaker 2: like one of the biggest predictors going into this season

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Speaker 2: is if a guy's not one hundred percent, you know,

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Speaker 2: he has a lower floor than other players around him.

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Speaker 2: So I think that that is a good indicator of

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Speaker 2: players that might bust.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, because you have there's a difference between like an

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Speaker 3: injury prone guy who just happened to be injured in

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Speaker 3: the past but is healthy, and like if a player

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Speaker 3: is injured now, just because a player appears on an

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Speaker 3: injury report once, that automatically increases the risk or increases

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Speaker 3: the odds of him reappearing on it or re injuring it.

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Speaker 3: And I think a lot of times what you see

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Speaker 3: in particular is a leg injury, a soft tissue injury,

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Speaker 3: something of that nature, where a player will injure a

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Speaker 3: different part of the leg later. So it's not like, Okay,

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Speaker 3: he has a hamstring, it's not always the hamstring for

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Speaker 3: the whole year. It'll be like a hamstring early in

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Speaker 3: the year and then like a foot or a calf

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Speaker 3: or something else.

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Speaker 1: So that's what you really have to be careful for.

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Speaker 3: And guys that are questionable for Week one obviously that

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Speaker 3: tangibly impacts their games played projection, which impacts their overall

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Speaker 3: season statistics. So yeah, those are some things I look

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Speaker 3: out for. And let's start it off with running backs.

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Speaker 3: You mentioned Saquon Barkley. Is that the biggest potential bust

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Speaker 3: do you think for this season?

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Speaker 2: I think so, just based on where he's being drafted.

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Speaker 2: I mean, he's still a first round pick typically in

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Speaker 2: that RB six to RB eight range, and you know, yeah,

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Speaker 2: he has top three upside. I'm not denying that, and

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Speaker 2: he might be healthy enough to play Week one and

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Speaker 2: prove me wrong, but when it comes to the first

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Speaker 2: couple of rounds, I'm not trying to take risks. I

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Speaker 2: think it also depends on your perceived skill set. If

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Speaker 2: you're a really good fancy manager and you know you're

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Speaker 2: going to crush the mid to late rounds of your draft,

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Speaker 2: you know you're going to have good nd season management,

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Speaker 2: there's no reason to really take on that risk of

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Speaker 2: Saquon Barkley deciding your season. You want to be in

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Speaker 2: control of that. So that's why I pass on him.

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Speaker 2: Whereas if I'm drafting for a buddy that's out of

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Speaker 2: town and I know he won't even keep the team

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Speaker 2: up to date, yeah, I'll take a Sakhon Barkley there,

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Speaker 2: because he needs that kind of like built and upside,

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Speaker 2: you know, to to win his league. So I think

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Speaker 2: it depends on your skill set. But for me personally,

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Speaker 2: I'm passing on Barkley. And you've mentioned in the past,

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Speaker 2: like he's not even that great win healthy, so there's

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Speaker 2: plenty of red flags with him. But you know, when

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Speaker 2: it comes to other running backs farther down the draft board,

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Speaker 2: I would say Miles Gaskin sticks out as a guy

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Speaker 2: that could be a bust. You know, he's going late

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Speaker 2: enough at RB twenty six that you know he might

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Speaker 2: be worth the dice roll at that point, but still

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Speaker 2: he's you know, starting under head coach Brian Flores, who

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Speaker 2: comes from the Bill Belichick coaching tree, which is known

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Speaker 2: to have, you know, a fancy situation that turns into

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Speaker 2: a headache. So he's already mentioned that they could have

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Speaker 2: a hot hand approach with Malcolm Brown and Solve.

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Speaker 1: Knockmed So that's why I'm ten.

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Speaker 2: I'm avoiding him, even though you know he's probably a

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Speaker 2: legit RB two to start beer, it's just after week one.

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Speaker 2: We really don't know how this is gonna form. So

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Speaker 2: he's a guy that I'm kind of passing on just

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Speaker 2: because he has a lower floor than most people think,

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Speaker 2: so he's a potential bust candidate as well.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's really interesting in the running back

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Speaker 3: ranks in general because it comes down so much to

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Speaker 3: where these guys are going. Because you loook back since

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Speaker 3: twenty fourteen, for a top ten PPR running back, the

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Speaker 3: median overall average draft position for a running back that

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Speaker 3: goes on to finish top ten is nineteenth overall. So

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Speaker 3: that means by the before you're even at the end

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Speaker 3: of the second round, half of the top ten running

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Speaker 3: backs and we're not even talking top five or top three.

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Speaker 3: Top ten running backs are probably going to be gone.

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Speaker 3: Whereas the receivers that finish in the top ten, they're

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Speaker 3: prever much even we distributed, with over half of them

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Speaker 3: being found from rounds two to round seven. So it's

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Speaker 3: a much you have a lot more upside and guys

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Speaker 3: that can kind of fall into that wide receiver one

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Speaker 3: tier later down the board at wide receiver, and there's

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Speaker 3: this opportunity cost with some of these running backs because

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Speaker 3: they start to thin out. You know, in early first

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Speaker 3: two rounds, you're getting you know, there's like nine to

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Speaker 3: eight to nine ten running backs being taken per round,

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Speaker 3: and then they're kind of even we distributed through these

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Speaker 3: next few rounds. But if you miss on one of

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Speaker 3: those guys, you're also giving up what's probably a higher

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Speaker 3: floor ceiling combo at the receiver position, which I think

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Speaker 3: is why a lot of these guys kind of profile

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Speaker 3: is bus for me, even if they're not like there's

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Speaker 3: not a huge red flag for the particular player, it's

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Speaker 3: just any little risk factor with some of these running

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Speaker 3: backs in those middle rounds, you're kind of shoot, your

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Speaker 3: ceiling might be RB two upside, you know, and versus

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Speaker 3: wide receiver, it's wide receiver one upside. So I agree,

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Speaker 3: I think Saquon And it's not that Saquon isn't good

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Speaker 3: when he's healthy, it's that the old line screws him

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Speaker 3: up like he's a good running back.

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Speaker 1: Make no mistake about it, right, Yeah, I've for fantasy. Right.

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Speaker 3: The old line, the Giants on line, is ranked thirty

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Speaker 3: second in the league by Pro Football Focus. It's ranked

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Speaker 3: thirty second by pretty much anyone who knows anything about

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Speaker 3: the offensive line. If you just you look at this

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Speaker 3: uh line top to bottom, there's no one that gives

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Speaker 3: you confidence that this is not going to be a

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Speaker 3: bottom five, if not just the worst old line in

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Speaker 3: the league. Five of Barkley's last fifteen games have ended

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Speaker 3: with thirty or few yards rushing due to a combination

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Speaker 3: of the old line and him being, you know, injury

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Speaker 3: getting injured. So there's a chance that even if he's

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Speaker 3: on the field for you, he could still have a

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Speaker 3: game like thirteen for one, which is a real Saquon

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Speaker 3: Barkley rushing line, eight for ten.

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Speaker 1: I mean, these are real Tequon Barkley lines.

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Speaker 3: And it's not because he's a bad play but his

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Speaker 3: running style, the way you know, he likes to kind

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Speaker 3: of go for the big play and with a bad

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Speaker 3: on line, it's just really tough and it could produce

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Speaker 3: some duds. So he's a guy that there's just so

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Speaker 3: many other guys there that you're not compounding the risk

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Speaker 3: of inefficiency because of a line with availability. We don't

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Speaker 3: know if he'll play week one. You know that that's

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Speaker 3: a tangible decrease to his projection because you're not sure.

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Speaker 3: You can't project him for the normal game amount of

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Speaker 3: games that every other running back gets if he's healthy.

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Speaker 3: So a lot of reasons to I think avoid Saquon.

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Speaker 3: Everyone has high ceilings. There no reason to take a

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Speaker 3: guy who as a lower floor. DeAndre Swift is trending

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Speaker 3: in that same direction in the third, fourth round. I mean,

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Speaker 3: he's a guy who his median carries per game last

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Speaker 3: year weren't even ten. It was in the single digits,

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Speaker 3: you know, so we're kind of banking on this increase

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Speaker 3: to you know, twelve thirteen, fourteen carries per game for

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Speaker 3: Swift to really be in this next tier of rights

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Speaker 3: after Quiet Edwards d Layer, and now we don't know

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Speaker 3: if Swift is going to be available week one, So

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Speaker 3: that's a tangible decrease to his projection. We're already kind

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Speaker 3: of banking on it's a projection just to you know,

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Speaker 3: give him increased carries as it is. Jamal Williams is there,

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Speaker 3: Jamar Jefferson is there. So I mean, Sean, how many

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Speaker 3: carries per game do you have Slift at right now?

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Speaker 1: I would say around thirteen. That's a projection though, right

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Speaker 1: Like that's.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, there's a wide range of outcomes, and you

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Speaker 2: know this team's going to be really bad, so I

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Speaker 2: don't think he's even to have many positive game scripts.

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Speaker 2: And Jamal Williams is there to eat into his not

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Speaker 2: only his rushing share, but his receiving share as well.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, it's interesting. He's like running back thirteen. If

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Speaker 2: you look at recent ADP, he's a top this massive

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Speaker 2: RB two tier, even ahead of guys like Nagierras, which

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Speaker 2: oh I don't even know I've projected that high, but

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Speaker 2: like I have nausee over DeAndre Swift. So yeah, I

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Speaker 2: think it's getting out of control from we're he's a

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Speaker 2: very talented back. But the situation, the injury that you

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Speaker 2: talked about, like there's too many red flags that be

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Speaker 2: taken a top A tier like this.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, because I think the thought is, you know, with

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Speaker 3: Dan Campbell there, you know, we obviously spend time on

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Speaker 3: the Saints. Maybe they you Swift like Alvin Kamara and

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Speaker 3: Jamal Williams.

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Speaker 1: Is the with Avs Murray And I agree, And I

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Speaker 1: think that's in the range of outcomes. That's but that's

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Speaker 1: a best case scenario.

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Speaker 3: And in round three again, you're you're probably not You're

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Speaker 3: not You're not giving yourself a great.

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Speaker 1: Chance that RB one upside.

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Speaker 3: Even if you're you take an RB that doesn't completely bust,

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Speaker 3: You're still probably going for high end RB two, low

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Speaker 3: end RB one maybe, and there are just so many

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Speaker 3: surefire receivers that are much less likely to bust. I

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Speaker 3: think once you start getting that third, fourth, fifth round,

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Speaker 3: like that's the wide receiver sweet spot for me is

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Speaker 3: that third through fifth, into the sixth round and even

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Speaker 3: into the seventh depending on the draft. You know, some

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Speaker 3: guys fall for it's PPR. You can still get guys

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Speaker 3: like Boyd Landry Weight. So I just really like the

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Speaker 3: value at other positions to where I'm not really looking

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Speaker 3: at DeAndre Swift there. So he's a little risky and

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Speaker 3: really a lot of those running backs in that in

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Speaker 3: that tier a risky I think, you know, is David

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Speaker 3: Montgomery gonna be a league winner in the third round

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Speaker 3: the way a wide receiver could potentially be a league

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Speaker 3: winner in that round.

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Speaker 1: Is JK. Dobbins going to be a league winner?

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's just such it's on the high end

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Speaker 3: of their range of outcomes, whereas I think it's a

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Speaker 3: little more to the middle high for the receivers. So

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Speaker 3: I'm trying to get my first two backs by the

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Speaker 3: first two rounds or first three, you know, maybe into

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Speaker 3: that third if I'm in the front of the draft,

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Speaker 3: but if not, I'm probably going.

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Speaker 1: Hero RB because I just really like those receivers in

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Speaker 1: the middle. Let's let's talk about bounce backs, Sean. Anybody

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Speaker 1: who busted last year that you.

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Speaker 3: Think is a good has a good shot to bounce back,

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Speaker 3: because I think what happens is fantasy is a very

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Speaker 3: emotional game, especially when you know people like us, we're

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Speaker 3: draft like hundreds of teams and all these basketball teams

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Speaker 3: that we set and forget. But you have a lot

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Speaker 3: of people listening that maybe draft two, three, one, maybe

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Speaker 3: even one team and a guy busted for them last year,

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Speaker 3: and that's going to influence how they think about this

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Speaker 3: player going forward. So is there anyone that maybe people

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Speaker 3: you know, got burned by last year that you think

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Speaker 3: has a good shot to rebound at the running back position.

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Speaker 2: Well, this is tough because a lot of the guys

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Speaker 2: that bust the last year, you know, out of the league,

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Speaker 2: like apparently, so I can't James Connor might be better

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Speaker 2: with Like, I'm not going to go that way. I'm

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Speaker 2: going to be creative here, So I'm gonna say AJ

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Speaker 2: Dillon is going to bounce back from being practically useless

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Speaker 2: as a rookie. And you called it though that Jamal

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Speaker 2: Williams is gonna basically be the number two back in

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Speaker 2: this offense. So with Jamal Williams gun, I think AJ

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Speaker 2: Dillon will finally be who I thought he was going

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Speaker 2: to be last year. And obviously I have the most

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Speaker 2: respect for Aaron Jones, who's my RB six right now.

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Speaker 2: But still this offense should be good enough to support

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Speaker 2: two fancy running backs, so I think he will play

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Speaker 2: that I'm not going to say goal line back roll,

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Speaker 2: but early down roll to kind of like be a

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Speaker 2: change of pace back, and they want him more involved

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Speaker 2: in the passing game, so we'll see how that goes.

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Speaker 2: He's just a guy that I love getting in the

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Speaker 2: RB thirty five to forty range where he can provide

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Speaker 2: you some flex value if you're in a pinch, whether

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Speaker 2: you have injuries or it's a heavy bye week, and

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Speaker 2: he has RB two upside in the event that Aaron

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Speaker 2: Jones were to go down.

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Speaker 1: So I like him a.

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Speaker 2: Lot this year, whereas last year, you know, he definitely

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Speaker 2: busted for people that thought he'd be a good late

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Speaker 2: round flyer.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that was one I was on one. But I

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Speaker 3: gotta kind of bring myself back down to earth because

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Speaker 3: one guy I was way too high on was Clyde

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Speaker 3: Edwards E Layer. I loved him in the first round.

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Speaker 3: That did not work out. He finished outside the top

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Speaker 3: twenty in points per game. He finished outside the top

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Speaker 3: twenty overall. He missed three games, and I believe he

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Speaker 3: had one game where he just he was active, but

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Speaker 3: he didn't play because I think he had a stomach

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Speaker 3: issue or something. So it was a tough year for

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Speaker 3: Edwards E Layer only four rushing touchdowns on one hundred

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Speaker 3: and eighty one carries. I think he will bounce back

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Speaker 3: this year because there's talk of getting him a little

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Speaker 3: bit more involved in the past game in year two.

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Speaker 1: You know, we know he can do that. He did

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Speaker 1: it at you know, in school, and.

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Speaker 3: We also saw Edwards e Layer get like that RB

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Speaker 3: one kind of usage early in the season before they

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Speaker 3: got Le'Veon Bell. So in week one he had twenty

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Speaker 3: five rushing attempts in two targets. In Week two he

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Speaker 3: had ten attempts but eight targets. In Week three he

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Speaker 3: had twenty attempts and six targets. Week four sixteen and three,

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Speaker 3: Week five, ten and eight. Week six, the Buffalo game

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Speaker 3: he had twenty six and four, so he was getting

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Speaker 3: legit RB one usage, so we know we can do it.

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Speaker 3: I think he gets a little more involved in the

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Speaker 3: passing game and gets some touchdown aggression. Remember this is

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Speaker 3: the high prop projects to be the highest scoring offense

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Speaker 3: in the league, So I think Edwards Laira will be

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Speaker 3: back in that low end RB one or high end

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Speaker 3: RB two spot where where he's kind of getting drafted by.

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Speaker 1: What do you think of Cech this year?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I love buying law on him because almost all

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Speaker 2: the reasons we loved him last year are still there,

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Speaker 2: so we're just getting him cheaper and who knows if

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Speaker 2: you know the COVID deleted offseason last year had anything

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Speaker 2: to do with him.

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Speaker 1: He did start off hot, so maybe it didn't.

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Speaker 2: But I think heading in a year or two, he's

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Speaker 2: the kind of kind of guy that I don't want

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Speaker 2: to be sleeping on.

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Speaker 1: So I'm fine taking him at ADP.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I do think he's a to be fair,

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Speaker 3: I think he's a high floor guy. Like, I don't

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Speaker 3: think he's matches like he has like the Camara Henry

359
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Speaker 3: ceiling or anything like. I think you're still taking him

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Speaker 3: because he's just a very high floor guy on a

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Speaker 3: good offense, you know, as we talked about with Dave Richard.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I definitely think he bounces back outside that

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Speaker 3: you know, gets back inside the top twenty. Let's talk

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Speaker 3: about wide receivers. Let's go to the wide receiver position

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Speaker 3: this one. There's so many, so many guys here that

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Speaker 3: I think it you know, you almost kind of get

367
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Speaker 3: lolled into taking some of these guys.

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Speaker 1: And there's a lot of group think with ADP.

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Speaker 3: So I'm interested to hear, like, who do you think

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Speaker 3: among these wide receiver ranks is a potential bus candidate

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Speaker 3: in twenty twenty one Shaw.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's hard to find because I do love the

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Speaker 2: wide receiver position. I think ADP is pretty sharp this year,

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Speaker 2: and there's there's guys at all levels of the draft

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Speaker 2: that I'm targeting, but I'm finding that. You know, Adam

376
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Speaker 2: Fieln is a guy that I've been avoiding because you know,

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Speaker 2: his fourteen touchdowns last year were a career career high.

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Speaker 2: He hasn't scored more than seven. Only one other season

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Speaker 2: he scored more than seven touchdowns, So I think we're

380
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Speaker 2: due for some touchdown aggression there. And you know, the

381
00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:05,600
Speaker 2: Vikings defense should be much better, which means we'll see

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00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:07,840
Speaker 2: some more run heavy game scripts. If you look at

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Speaker 2: last season, when he scored fourteen touchdowns, he finished outside

384
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Speaker 2: of the top sixty twenty seven percent of the time.

385
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Speaker 2: That's an insanely high rate for wide receiver two. So

386
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Speaker 2: he has a lower floor than people realize, and I

387
00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:23,680
Speaker 2: don't like that when it comes to season long fantasy football.

388
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Speaker 2: So that's why I've been avoiding him. And another guy

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Speaker 2: that you know, I don't necessarily hate him, but it's

390
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Speaker 2: DJ Moore. He's sort of drafted in that mid tiered

391
00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:38,040
Speaker 2: wide receiver two range and he's the kind of guy

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Speaker 2: where I don't hate him, it's I think his other

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00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:44,960
Speaker 2: receivers have more value ADP. So guys like Robbie Anderson,

394
00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:49,200
Speaker 2: Terrence Marshall, I love them at ADP, so just by default,

395
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Speaker 2: I'm sort of avoiding DJ Moore.

396
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Speaker 1: I think you can get.

397
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Speaker 2: Sucked into taking him high based on his talent. But

398
00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:57,360
Speaker 2: you know, Sam Darnell is not going to be able

399
00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:01,400
Speaker 2: to support all three receivers and Sho McCaffrey and potentially

400
00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:04,240
Speaker 2: Dan Arnold. So you know, the volumes a concern with

401
00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:06,879
Speaker 2: more and he hasn't shown that touchdown upside that we

402
00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:10,000
Speaker 2: need to kind of replace the potential drop in volumes.

403
00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:12,040
Speaker 2: So well, I like DJ Moore. I think he's being

404
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:13,520
Speaker 2: drafted just a little bit too high.

405
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Speaker 1: Yeah.

406
00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:18,959
Speaker 3: You know, when you look at busts from years past

407
00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:23,000
Speaker 3: and the ones that are not due to injury, because

408
00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:26,080
Speaker 3: again so many are, but the ones that aren't, I

409
00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:31,680
Speaker 3: think a common theme is just bad quarterback play. And

410
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Speaker 3: even if Sam Donald improves this year compared to what

411
00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:39,160
Speaker 3: he was doing with Adam Gase, you have to figure

412
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:42,119
Speaker 3: he will. You can't argue with the fact that Sam

413
00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:46,840
Speaker 3: Donald is a bottom tier starting quarterback in compared to

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Speaker 3: what these other fantasy receivers have, right, Like, there's a

415
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Speaker 3: big difference between even like a Sam Donald and a

416
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Speaker 3: Kirk Cousins. So you know, it's it I do worry about.

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Speaker 3: And I to be honest with you, it's even crossed

418
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:03,960
Speaker 3: my mind, like Robbie Anderson could bust too. As much

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Speaker 3: as I know we both like him, it's impossible to

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Speaker 3: it happens, right.

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Speaker 1: But when he busted, it'll be the first time. But yeah,

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00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:15,120
Speaker 1: I hear you. But I always say, never underestimate Robby Anderson.

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Speaker 1: But I hear you. No, I'm not underestimating it.

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Speaker 3: I'm just I'm just kind of I think the important

425
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Speaker 3: thing is here is like we kind of put you know,

426
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Speaker 3: the range of outcomes out there for people that just

427
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Speaker 3: like otherwise they wouldn't have thought of it.

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Speaker 1: You know.

429
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Speaker 3: It's like, because I think that's what happens in this

430
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Speaker 3: wide receiver tier. It's very deep, and it's kind of

431
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:36,560
Speaker 3: you see all these guys there and you know they're

432
00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:38,919
Speaker 3: kind of in these these bigger tiers and you just

433
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 3: feel comfortable taking any of them, and then you look

434
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Speaker 3: back and they're like, oh, in retrospect, yeah, maybe I

435
00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:46,639
Speaker 3: shouldn't have had like two Sam Donald receivers in the

436
00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 3: top thirty, you know.

437
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:51,639
Speaker 1: So, yeah, I gotta put that one out there. But

438
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:54,640
Speaker 1: for me, the number one.

439
00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:56,120
Speaker 3: Guy I see, and I hate to say it because

440
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:58,560
Speaker 3: I think he's a talented guy, but it might be

441
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:00,680
Speaker 3: a year or too early to take him is high

442
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:04,639
Speaker 3: and as Jamar Chase, you know, he's he's being taken.

443
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:06,720
Speaker 1: I think a lot closer.

444
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:10,880
Speaker 3: To a rookie wide receiver's ceiling than a rookie than

445
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:14,119
Speaker 3: the true outcome for like a first round rookie receiver.

446
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:17,080
Speaker 3: I think Devonte Smith, you know, going in the mid thirties.

447
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:21,200
Speaker 3: I think that's closer to the fair expectation for year

448
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 3: one for a round one guy, even as talented as Chase.

449
00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 3: You know, Javin Watto's kind of going there too, But

450
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:32,480
Speaker 3: Chase is going right outside the top twenty. He's wide

451
00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:36,000
Speaker 3: receiver twenty one in my fantasy league over the past

452
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:39,480
Speaker 3: since August fifteenth. And yeah, and I see him taking

453
00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 3: in that same range in underdog basketball drafts and things

454
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:46,680
Speaker 3: like that. And listen, the guys had, by all accounts,

455
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:51,320
Speaker 3: a pretty rough camp, a lot of drops. The coaching

456
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:54,119
Speaker 3: staff's talking about, Hey, maybe we get aud Tate, you know,

457
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:57,159
Speaker 3: a veteran. Some some snaps don't don't put everything on

458
00:22:57,280 --> 00:22:58,480
Speaker 3: Chase's plate, you.

459
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 1: Know, early on, and so.

460
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 3: Listen, does Chase have humongous upside, especially playing with his.

461
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:07,040
Speaker 1: College buddy Joe Burrow.

462
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:11,880
Speaker 3: Absolutely, But the median outcome for why a rookie first

463
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:14,359
Speaker 3: round pick at wide receiver is not wide receiver twenty

464
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 3: ride receiver twenty one, you know it's in.

465
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 1: It's gonna be in the mid thirties.

466
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,439
Speaker 3: And so I just think, first of all, I think

467
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 3: t Higgins should absolutely go ahead of Chase. I've had

468
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:26,879
Speaker 3: Higgins ahead of Chase in my projections the whole draft season.

469
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 3: I think Higgins is the guy that you know, year

470
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:32,959
Speaker 3: two breakout. But I just think Chase compared to some

471
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 3: of the other guys you can get in that same range,

472
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:37,920
Speaker 3: I mean, sometimes Chase goes before a guy like Julio Jones.

473
00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:40,199
Speaker 3: I mean I even think Adam Thiewen is still safer

474
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:43,399
Speaker 3: than Chase, just because we have we know Adam Thwen's

475
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 3: a great route runner. We know Adam Dewen is, like

476
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:48,560
Speaker 3: you know, locked into twenty twenty five percent of those

477
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:49,639
Speaker 3: targets in Minnesota.

478
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:51,720
Speaker 1: It just might be a low volume offense.

479
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 3: But like Chase, we have there's such a wide range

480
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,879
Speaker 3: of outcomes. There's there's two guys that could be target

481
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:00,440
Speaker 3: hogs and one guy that could be a area yard

482
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 3: how and T Higgins and then Boyd is also a

483
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:04,879
Speaker 3: target high So I think there's just a little bit

484
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:08,920
Speaker 3: too much risk there for Chase Michael Thomas. His ADPs

485
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:10,879
Speaker 3: all over the map. But I would be remiss to

486
00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 3: mention to not mention him. I just don't know where

487
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 3: to put the game's played projection. I don't know what

488
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 3: kind of offense he's going to be in. If he's

489
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 3: is it going to be lower volume with If it's

490
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:25,639
Speaker 3: Jamis and it's not Drew Brees anymore, how's the efficiency

491
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 3: going to be without Drew Brees? You know, there's just

492
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:32,479
Speaker 3: so many question marks, such a wide range of outcome.

493
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:35,400
Speaker 3: I still see him getting taken as a starter as

494
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 3: a wide receiver.

495
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 1: Three sometimes four. I don't think you want to do it.

496
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 1: I think there are just same ceiling higher floor picks

497
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:44,680
Speaker 1: at his ADP just because you also have the miss games.

498
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:46,360
Speaker 1: I mean, what how many games do you have them?

499
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 2: Sean to get the ranking I want, I have him

500
00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:55,560
Speaker 2: missing like five games, so I have projected like eleven

501
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 2: and a half games played.

502
00:24:57,480 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 1: So is that are you trying to bump him up

503
00:24:59,600 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 1: or down?

504
00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:04,639
Speaker 2: He's he's so interesting and I agree with your logic,

505
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:06,919
Speaker 2: but I think it depends on what league you're in.

506
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:11,199
Speaker 2: You know, if you're starting three receivers and he's like

507
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 2: outside of the top forty now, and he's going on

508
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 2: your bench, and let's say you're in a league where

509
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 2: the rest of your league isn't very good and you

510
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:21,399
Speaker 2: know you're going to make the playoffs, then I'm comfortable

511
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:24,639
Speaker 2: taking Michael Thomas because you can afford having him on

512
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 2: your bench. But if you're in a really competitive league

513
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 2: where everyone's sharp, then yeah, I'm an avoid taking him

514
00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:32,959
Speaker 2: because you're trying to make the playoffs. So I think

515
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,880
Speaker 2: it really depends on format. You know how I love

516
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:40,400
Speaker 2: stashing guys that are injured to begin this season if

517
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 2: they fall too far and he hasn't gotten there quite yet.

518
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,120
Speaker 2: But if he falls outside I say top thirty five,

519
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 2: I think I am willing to take that gamble if

520
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 2: I think I'll make the playoffs regardless having him on

521
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:51,919
Speaker 2: my bench or not.

522
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:55,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not there. I mean, you're.

523
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:57,560
Speaker 2: Concerned even when he does return that he Yeah, I

524
00:25:57,640 --> 00:25:59,640
Speaker 2: just don't think it's that's fair because I.

525
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 3: Think, listen, I you know, I put a lot of

526
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 3: stock into things like you know, targets per route run

527
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:06,400
Speaker 3: and you know, I know we you know, we kind

528
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,440
Speaker 3: of use the catch rates and different and like those

529
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:11,119
Speaker 3: things are just so jacked by Drew Brees and like

530
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 3: he was such an other I mean, this guy was

531
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:16,920
Speaker 3: completing like seventy five percent of his passes and Thomas

532
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:20,640
Speaker 3: was his number one target. Now, I know Jameis Winston

533
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 3: is a high upside player.

534
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:24,400
Speaker 1: He's going to increase the average depth of target.

535
00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 3: But you know, they're just like we haven't seen these

536
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:31,160
Speaker 3: guys really haven't played together because Thomas has been out.

537
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:33,200
Speaker 1: We don't know how it's gonna unfold.

538
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:35,160
Speaker 3: We don't know if taysoum could you know how many

539
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 3: starts Taysom's gonna make even if Jamis starts the season

540
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:43,400
Speaker 3: as expected. So I just I still think that there's

541
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:49,119
Speaker 3: guys that you could get sixteen games worth of production,

542
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,159
Speaker 3: where Michael Thomas, like you're giving up games and you

543
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 3: really don't know if he's going to get back to

544
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:58,119
Speaker 3: that wide receiver one two status and be consistent, right, like,

545
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 3: cause you know if he comes in and he's like, okay,

546
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:03,680
Speaker 3: do you even start him that first game he's back,

547
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 3: like maybe it might not be a slam dunk and

548
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:07,560
Speaker 3: you know how Stavs is going to play, and then

549
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 3: if he's in effect of that game, then you know

550
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,880
Speaker 3: it's I can't really think of a wide receiver aside

551
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 3: from Odell Beckham he comes to mind, and that was

552
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 3: obviously a big one, but that really paid off to Stash,

553
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 3: Like I remember, aj Green just didn't even play Devo

554
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 3: Samuel last year. What did he give us like a

555
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 3: few like half season worth of Like he was decent

556
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:31,240
Speaker 3: when he was in there, but he missed like a

557
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 3: ton of time.

558
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:34,760
Speaker 1: Who else can you think of any like the other

559
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:35,439
Speaker 1: recent one.

560
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:37,680
Speaker 2: Off the top of my head? But yeah, you're right,

561
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 2: it depends on the situation. But right now he's not

562
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 2: quite there yet. But again, if he falls outside of

563
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 2: say the top thirty five, that's when I would consider it.

564
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 2: But yeah, like you said, even when he does return,

565
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 2: he's not a slam dunk.

566
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, to me, it has to be like I mean,

567
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:56,919
Speaker 3: I'm not getting any because he's still going way too

568
00:27:56,960 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 3: high for me, but I would say he has to

569
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 3: be outside of the time fifty because I think I

570
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:03,879
Speaker 3: can get like even with my wide receiver. For I

571
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:05,760
Speaker 3: kind of treat that like a starting position because it's

572
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 3: either going to be my flex or you know, that

573
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 3: first wide receiver for bye weeks. So I kind of

574
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:15,959
Speaker 3: wont another like pretty solid high floor guy in that spot.

575
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 3: So like there's a lot of guys I take over,

576
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:23,680
Speaker 3: Michael Thomas going to drop to fifty. So yeah, that's

577
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,120
Speaker 3: name value. So yeah, no, just but yeah, that's that's

578
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 3: the bust for me. And another one who actually should play, uh,

579
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:33,160
Speaker 3: Courtland Sutton, and I've really struggled to rank him. I'm

580
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 3: actually interested in your your take on Sutton Sean because

581
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 3: number one.

582
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 1: I don't I don't know his availability.

583
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 3: I don't think we know his availability for certain Like

584
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 3: is he definitely one hundred percent right now headed into

585
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:48,480
Speaker 3: week one, and like we're we're pretty much. I think

586
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 3: there's a consensus that Jerry Judy is gonna take a

587
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 3: big step forward in year two. You have Hammler having

588
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,080
Speaker 3: a great camp, no offense still there. You have two

589
00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:00,280
Speaker 3: running backs that you know can catch the ball. So

590
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 3: I just worry that Sutton is not going to be

591
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 3: that same receiver that he was when he was like

592
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 3: a great fantasy asset because that was no one else

593
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:12,080
Speaker 3: was really there in Denver, especially after they traded Manuel

594
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 3: Sanders for that second half of the season. So like,

595
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 3: how are you approaching that projection for Sutton because I'm

596
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 3: just worried about like the defense being better and they're

597
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 3: just not being enough to go around to really make

598
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:25,040
Speaker 3: him that like slam dunk like high floor wide receiver

599
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 3: two three.

600
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you there. He's all the way down

601
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 2: to like Wye receiver forty for me now, and it

602
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 2: looks like recent ADP he's still going ahead of Jerry Judy,

603
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,320
Speaker 2: So I have Jerry Judy rank like ten slots higher

604
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 2: and can get him cheaper. So again, this is the

605
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 2: type of offense where I'm not trying to invest in

606
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 2: multiple targets, So it's Jerry Judy for me or best,

607
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 2: So I'm passing on Sutton. You mentioned Kidja Hammler has

608
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 2: looked great, and Sutton's a guy he could get hurt

609
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 2: if not injured, but you know, get a downgrade if

610
00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 2: Teddy Bridgewater does take over his quarterback I think either

611
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:04,320
Speaker 2: way Jerry Judy has chemistry with Drew Locke. Any fits

612
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 2: Teddy Bridgewater's skill set, so I think he's pretty bustproof

613
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 2: when it comes to the quarterback situation where a Sutton,

614
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:12,360
Speaker 2: I think he really does need a gunslinger like Locke

615
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 2: to be under center to be valuable.

616
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 1: So I think that the.

617
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 2: Threat of Teddy Bridgewater potentially taking over I think hurt

618
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 2: Sutton's long term value as well.

619
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a real tough one because it's like I do,

620
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 3: I do get it, like I do see the upside there.

621
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 3: I think for me it's just more about the floor

622
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 3: because I don't want to make the mistake of I

623
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 3: think last year we kind of felt that way about

624
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:35,120
Speaker 3: Teddy Bridgewater with Robbie Anderson.

625
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:36,560
Speaker 1: You know, I got Teddy.

626
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 3: Bridgewater is going to be bad for Robby Anderson, and

627
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 3: Robby Anderson end up having a great season in that

628
00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:43,200
Speaker 3: same position, so it can be done. But I don't

629
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 3: think Denver is going to have to throw the way

630
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 3: Carolina did because Denver's defense is going to be probably

631
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 3: top five. So that's what kind of does it for me.

632
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:54,120
Speaker 3: I just see safer picks at that range, and I

633
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 3: think most of these wide receivers you know, in like

634
00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 3: the twenty five to forty range have similar upside.

635
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 1: They're all kind of.

636
00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 3: You know, they could get to, you know, twenty plus

637
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:07,560
Speaker 3: percent of the targets and whatnot.

638
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 1: So it's just it's just more about.

639
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 3: Floor for me with some and I think he has

640
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 3: a little bit lower of a floor and there's there's

641
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 3: some injury uncertainty there, So he's a potential one for me.

642
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 3: What about bouncebacks sean at wide receiver, anyone that busted

643
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:26,240
Speaker 3: last year that you see bouncing back in twenty twenty one, Yes.

644
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 2: That would be Michael Gallop for me. I think he

645
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 2: was drafted like a wide receiver two last year. And

646
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 2: it's funny because we viewed him as a threat to

647
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:37,040
Speaker 2: Ceedee Lamb as opposed the other way around. So now

648
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 2: that Seedee Lamb's going in the top ten, I mean

649
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 2: his ADP has gotten a bit out of control. I

650
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,120
Speaker 2: haven't been able to get him as much. I've loved

651
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:47,320
Speaker 2: taking Gallop in that wide receiver forty five or fifty range.

652
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:49,920
Speaker 2: You know, he was hurt last year based on his

653
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 2: route tree. He had, you know, sort of the downfield

654
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 2: threat route tree, and when Dak got hurt that made

655
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 2: him almost relevant, whereas this year they're lighting him up

656
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 2: in the slot more. I think he'll sort of be

657
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:04,280
Speaker 2: that Sea Lamb role that we saw last year. So

658
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 2: I love Michael Gallops upside and I think as a

659
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:10,480
Speaker 2: pretty high floor. I think even if Cooper and Lamb

660
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 2: were healthy all season, I think he's a wide receiver three,

661
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 2: but if either one were to go down, he has

662
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:19,080
Speaker 2: that massive upside, you know, wide receiver two potential. So

663
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:21,720
Speaker 2: I think he's a great bounce back candidate who I

664
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 2: think he definitely busted for people last year for reasons

665
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:28,520
Speaker 2: outside of his control. And another guy I think could

666
00:32:28,560 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 2: be a bounce back candidate, just a late round flyer,

667
00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 2: would be Brian Edwards. I fell into the hype trap

668
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 2: a little bit with him last year, but you know,

669
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 2: with Nelson Aguilara, the picture he leaves behind thirteen end

670
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:44,920
Speaker 2: zone targets, I think Brian Edwards could be the guy

671
00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 2: that picks up those. You know, he's six foot three,

672
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 2: two twelve. He could be you know, Derek Carr's favorite

673
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:54,200
Speaker 2: red zone target behind Darren Waller. So he's a guy

674
00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 2: I think you like Henry Ruggs. I think either raiders

675
00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 2: wide receiver you can get basically free. One of them

676
00:32:59,920 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 2: is going to have to step up this year. So

677
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 2: I think taking a fire on Edwards having a bounce

678
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 2: back season makes sense.

679
00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:07,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't.

680
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 3: I'm not there on Edwards, man, Like I like, so

681
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 3: what worries me about Edwards? And I do like Rugs.

682
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 3: I think Ruggs is a bounce back. My reasoning being

683
00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 3: that he was a you know, he has the high

684
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 3: draft pedigree, he has the speed, he has the inside

685
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:30,600
Speaker 3: outside ability. You know, it's year two, you expect the

686
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:34,280
Speaker 3: big weep and I get that's Edwards too, But remember

687
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:38,800
Speaker 3: going into last year, you know, Rugs and Edwards were

688
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:42,320
Speaker 3: kind of the sweepers heading into that year too, and

689
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 3: Ruggs ended up playing seventy one percent of the.

690
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 1: Routes per game.

691
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 3: He ran around on seventy one percent of the dropbacks

692
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 3: per game last year, whereas Brian Edwards was at thirty

693
00:33:56,560 --> 00:34:00,200
Speaker 3: percent and useless lost yer, right, and so but I

694
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:03,160
Speaker 3: look at that and I say, Okay, at this time

695
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 3: last year, it was a similar thing.

696
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:07,560
Speaker 1: We were like, Okay, Ruggs is you know, he's the guy.

697
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:08,759
Speaker 1: We're gonna rank him ahead of him.

698
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:11,719
Speaker 3: He'll probably be the top receiver there, but Edwards should

699
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:13,919
Speaker 3: start on the other side. He should be the number two.

700
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:16,960
Speaker 3: He's got some sleeper appeal, and he played less than

701
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:20,640
Speaker 3: half the time, and now it's like you have, yeah,

702
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:24,640
Speaker 3: you lost Agalar, but you have John Brown and John

703
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:26,680
Speaker 3: Brown a couple of years ago, it was like a

704
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 3: borderline wide receiver one when he was on the Bills

705
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:30,359
Speaker 3: last year.

706
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 1: He was obviously hurt.

707
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:36,080
Speaker 3: But I just can't confidently say Edwards has like that

708
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:40,200
Speaker 3: ninety percent of routes per game, you know, true wide receiver,

709
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:43,160
Speaker 3: you know, starting wide receiver upside, like I think even

710
00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:45,960
Speaker 3: if he starts, I think his ceilings a little captain.

711
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:47,880
Speaker 3: I think renfro is gonna still play it like in

712
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:51,719
Speaker 3: the slot. So it's hard for me Edwards. And I

713
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 3: mean you could kind of say, maybe that's a knock

714
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:57,160
Speaker 3: against Ruggs too, but he did play seventy percent of

715
00:34:57,200 --> 00:34:58,319
Speaker 3: the routes last year.

716
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:00,279
Speaker 1: I think he has a chance to go up.

717
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:03,080
Speaker 3: You know, his high was ninety whereas Edwards high was

718
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:06,200
Speaker 3: sixty seven last year percent. So I think Ruggs could

719
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 3: actually get those true wide receiver one snaps make that

720
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 3: big leap. So that's the guy I'll plant my flag

721
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:13,280
Speaker 3: on narrators.

722
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:13,640
Speaker 1: Yeah.

723
00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:15,880
Speaker 2: Well, the thing with Ruggs is he is being drafted

724
00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:18,600
Speaker 2: a little bit higher, you know, guys like Darnell Mooney

725
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:21,800
Speaker 2: or Mikael Hardman. You know, I don't mind taking a

726
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:23,400
Speaker 2: flare on those guys, So that's why I'm getting a

727
00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:25,799
Speaker 2: little bit less Rugs, whereas you know, Edwards is going

728
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:29,760
Speaker 2: down with like trey Quan Smith Van Jefferson type guys.

729
00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:32,600
Speaker 2: So that's why he's he's a bit he's a lot cheaper,

730
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:33,680
Speaker 2: He's basically free.

731
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 1: So I consider this sort of like the.

732
00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:39,880
Speaker 2: Lions wide receivers, where you know, take a flare on

733
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:41,160
Speaker 2: one of these guys that might hit.

734
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 1: If not drop them, they won't kill you.

735
00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:45,959
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's well, I guess it depends where you draft

736
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 3: because I do a lot of Best Ball drafts on

737
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 3: underdog and Edwards is actually the like one thirtieth overall,

738
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:54,560
Speaker 3: which is probably contributing to why I'm so like out

739
00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:57,240
Speaker 3: on him, because yeah, that's a bit high. Yeah, Ruggs

740
00:35:57,280 --> 00:36:00,560
Speaker 3: is like one fifteen, so uh yeah, Edward, Yeah, he

741
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:02,440
Speaker 3: would have to be like a last pick, and a

742
00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 3: lot of times what I'll do if I have, you know,

743
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:06,799
Speaker 3: Derek Carr is on my TV two and the best

744
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 3: ball is I'll actually take John Brown because I think

745
00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:11,600
Speaker 3: I think he's the guy that no one's like thinking about.

746
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 1: But I don't think they brought him like.

747
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:15,920
Speaker 3: I think there's a there's a decent chance Brown is

748
00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:20,280
Speaker 3: Agalar like in rug Like. If Rugs doesn't improve, Brown

749
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:22,719
Speaker 3: could be Agalar and Edwards could be kind of the same,

750
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 3: you know.

751
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:24,800
Speaker 1: So it's I don't know, it's I think.

752
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:26,759
Speaker 2: Either way, we'll know by week two how this is

753
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:29,720
Speaker 2: smurting out it. It's not something that's gonna take all season,

754
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:32,000
Speaker 2: unfil We'll know out of the gate how they're you know,

755
00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:33,440
Speaker 2: how they're going to handle this all season.

756
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a it's a low risk move. I get that.

757
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:39,919
Speaker 3: For me, I'm looking at bouncebacks. I mean the big

758
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:42,640
Speaker 3: one for me is Julio Jones. You know, I mentioned Rugs,

759
00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:46,160
Speaker 3: but I think Julio Jones at wide receiver twenty is

760
00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:50,400
Speaker 3: you know, nineteen or twenty is being taken near his floor.

761
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:54,800
Speaker 3: I think when you look at Tennessee, Corey Davis finished

762
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:58,239
Speaker 3: in the top sixteen in receiving yards per game last year,

763
00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:00,360
Speaker 3: and that's Corey Davis, and that's with you know, that

764
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 3: was with AJ Brown there, that was with the tight

765
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:07,320
Speaker 3: end John Smith still there. It's it's a little bit depleted,

766
00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 3: and Jones could step right back into like another you know,

767
00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 3: twenty five percent target share even with AJ Brown getting

768
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:17,400
Speaker 3: the same. So and Ryan Tannehal has been even more

769
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:20,279
Speaker 3: efficient than Matt Ryan. Ryan Tannahal has thrown more touchdowns

770
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:23,839
Speaker 3: than Matt Ryan. So I think there's some upside here

771
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:26,799
Speaker 3: for Jones. He who I don't think is falling off.

772
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:28,839
Speaker 3: You know, he posted a seventy five percent catch rate

773
00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 3: last year. I think it's just the miss games killed him.

774
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 3: But even though Julio has been constantly banged up, he

775
00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:39,640
Speaker 3: usually doesn't miss games, and he's put up his monster

776
00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 3: production always while playing you know, roughly around eighty percent

777
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:45,279
Speaker 3: of the snaps per game. He's never even been like

778
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:49,280
Speaker 3: a ninety five hundred percent snap guy. So I feel

779
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:52,200
Speaker 3: pretty good about Julio bouncing back. You don't expect guys

780
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:56,400
Speaker 3: to miss that many games, you know, year twice in

781
00:37:56,480 --> 00:37:59,320
Speaker 3: a row, so unless it's Shawn Jackson, baby. But actually,

782
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:02,759
Speaker 3: actually like so that's actually if you're looking for a

783
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:05,880
Speaker 3: best ball bounce back, I just like I get DeShawn

784
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:08,719
Speaker 3: Jackson so much as like my wide receiver seven or eight,

785
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:11,400
Speaker 3: because again, like I still don't think you can predict

786
00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 3: him for like five games, Like he's still the median

787
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:18,360
Speaker 3: outcome is what he still plays, like fourteen thirteen, fourteen games?

788
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:20,840
Speaker 1: Right, yeah, yeah, well, I mean.

789
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 2: Really he's going to play three or four, but every

790
00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 2: game he plays will be a useful one in besketball.

791
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:29,880
Speaker 2: That's why I love the call. If he happens to

792
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:32,360
Speaker 2: play fourteen games, I mean he will smash ADP and

793
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:36,240
Speaker 2: best Ball. So yeah, I think if Marquez Della Scantling

794
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 2: is off the board, DeShawn Jackson is my favorite late

795
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:42,359
Speaker 2: round best ball fly wide receiver because of everything he said.

796
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 2: I mean, he will get you useful scores as long

797
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:45,800
Speaker 2: as he's healthy.

798
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, and he's got Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay and

799
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 3: and you actually got to cover those guys underneath like

800
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:55,480
Speaker 3: Woods and Cup and you know, so it's it's gonna

801
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:58,080
Speaker 3: be a lot of single coverage for DeShawn. So yeah,

802
00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 3: in best ball, keep him in mind. Let's go to

803
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:06,719
Speaker 3: the tight end position. Sean, who you eyeing as is

804
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 3: busts in the tight end ranks. This year.

805
00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:11,880
Speaker 1: It's a pretty ugly position outside the top.

806
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:15,759
Speaker 2: Six exactly, And that sets up my bust perfectly is

807
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:18,480
Speaker 2: once the top six are off the board, I mean,

808
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 2: it's really interchangeable for the next I don't know, six

809
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:24,880
Speaker 2: to seven tight ends, so no I have ranked seventh,

810
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:28,319
Speaker 2: which some sites his ADP is seven, sometimes is down

811
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:30,600
Speaker 2: to eleven. That's kind of my point, as these guys

812
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:34,239
Speaker 2: are interchangeable, but well, no offense to teal toed tight end.

813
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:37,080
Speaker 2: He sits a top a massive tier, so you're just asking,

814
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:40,480
Speaker 2: you know, for him to basically hit his ceiling to

815
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 2: hit ADP. And we already talked about the broncos. You know,

816
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:45,480
Speaker 2: there aren't that many targets or yards to go around,

817
00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:48,920
Speaker 2: so guy like Fant could have a pretty low weekly floor.

818
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:51,920
Speaker 2: So you know, once the top six tight ends are

819
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 2: off the board, I'm usually punting and waiting until the

820
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:56,360
Speaker 2: end of the draft to take a fly around like

821
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:59,080
Speaker 2: an IRV Smith or some guy like that, where if

822
00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:00,960
Speaker 2: they don't hit five, I'm going to drop them and

823
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 2: try to pick somebody up.

824
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 1: Whereas if you use you.

825
00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:06,400
Speaker 2: Know, I don't know, round eight to nine draft capital

826
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:08,840
Speaker 2: on a guy like Noah Fan, you're kind of forcing

827
00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 2: yourself to keep him for five to six games because

828
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:13,200
Speaker 2: you don't want to drop him. You spent an eighth

829
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:16,200
Speaker 2: round pick. And we saw that with guys last year, right,

830
00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:19,719
Speaker 2: Evan Ingram and Tyler Higbee were tight end six and

831
00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:22,720
Speaker 2: tight end seven, and by the end of the season

832
00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 2: you would have dropped them if you were smart. So

833
00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:27,799
Speaker 2: I think it's sort of that sunk cost fallacy where

834
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:30,000
Speaker 2: you're kind of like forcing yourself to hang on these

835
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:33,040
Speaker 2: guys when you kind of need that flexibility. If you

836
00:40:33,080 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 2: miss the top six to kind of like play the

837
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:38,560
Speaker 2: waiver wire a bit, maybe you'll end up having a

838
00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:42,480
Speaker 2: Logan Thomas or Robert Tanyan kind of breakout year if

839
00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:44,239
Speaker 2: you play the wiver wire. So I think a guy

840
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:45,920
Speaker 2: like f Well, I like him as a tight end

841
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 2: kind of represents that typical tight end bust that we

842
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:52,479
Speaker 2: see taking guys at the top of this massive, massive tier.

843
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 1: Yeah.

844
00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 3: Absolutely, I'm in total agreement in the way I'm starting

845
00:40:57,680 --> 00:41:00,279
Speaker 3: to look at the tight end position is like, you know,

846
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:02,839
Speaker 3: a throwback to standard leagues, Like we don't really play

847
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:05,279
Speaker 3: in a lot of standard leagues anymore as experts, but

848
00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:08,680
Speaker 3: if you look at the tight end stats last year,

849
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:12,400
Speaker 3: Travis Kelcey d you know, all tight ends, and he

850
00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:15,239
Speaker 3: was tied for the lead with Robert Tunyan with eleven touchdowns.

851
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:18,600
Speaker 3: Darren Waller had nine, Jimmy Graham had eight, John new

852
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:21,879
Speaker 3: Smith had eight. You know, if you look at those guys,

853
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:25,759
Speaker 3: it's either their high volume guys or their you know,

854
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 3: aside from Graham was kind of the outlier. But like

855
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:31,360
Speaker 3: Tanian's attached to a quarterback that's going to throw a

856
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:33,359
Speaker 3: lot of touchdowns, you know, week in and week out.

857
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:37,520
Speaker 3: You know, John new Smith, same thing. Ryan Tannehill's become

858
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:41,840
Speaker 3: a touchdown machine. So Mark Andrews, you know, Lamar Jackson's

859
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:45,120
Speaker 3: pretty good at throwing touchdowns. Like it's so I think

860
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 3: it makes a lot more sense to just if you're

861
00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 3: just wait, you know. Even That's why I said I'm

862
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:53,000
Speaker 3: not even out on Gronkowski the way I was earlier,

863
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 3: because he's ADP has dropped like eight slots. He went

864
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:59,000
Speaker 3: from like tight end like ten to like eighteen, where

865
00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:00,640
Speaker 3: I mean, I still think he has one of the

866
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:04,360
Speaker 3: higher touchdown expectations, even running like half the routs. A

867
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:07,399
Speaker 3: guy like Tony in I think, you know, still goes

868
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:11,080
Speaker 3: outside the top ten sometimes outside the top twelve, he's

869
00:42:11,120 --> 00:42:14,360
Speaker 3: got that touchdown expectation, Like it just makes more sense

870
00:42:14,400 --> 00:42:17,239
Speaker 3: to go after that at this position than a guy

871
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 3: like Fan because how many touchdowns do we really expect

872
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 3: some combination of Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lotte to throw?

873
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:26,600
Speaker 3: Like what's their upside? Like twenty four, twenty five, that's

874
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:32,480
Speaker 3: the ceiling, Like exactly, Yeah, So it's not really a

875
00:42:32,600 --> 00:42:35,279
Speaker 3: good a smart move. I think that's that's a prime

876
00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:38,880
Speaker 3: bus countidate. Same thing for me for Dallas Goddard. I

877
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 3: think there's just a lot of uncertainty. Number one, when

878
00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 3: will zach Ertz actually get traded? Like they might hold

879
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:49,239
Speaker 3: onto him through the deadline. It's the Nfseast, so you

880
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:51,279
Speaker 3: never know, they may be competitive and decide they want

881
00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:56,600
Speaker 3: to keep him. Got her even without Ertz there, How

882
00:42:56,680 --> 00:42:59,719
Speaker 3: much room does he really have to grow? You know,

883
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:02,960
Speaker 3: he already was in like the seventy percent routes run

884
00:43:02,960 --> 00:43:05,919
Speaker 3: per drop back last year. He's going, Uh, now he's

885
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:08,600
Speaker 3: with jaywhen Hurts who you know, we don't know if

886
00:43:08,600 --> 00:43:10,960
Speaker 3: he's really going to be like a tight end friendly quarterback.

887
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:13,279
Speaker 3: Might It seems to me like he's those guys that

888
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:16,359
Speaker 3: kind of make things happen off schedule more like a

889
00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:20,080
Speaker 3: it benefits the outside receivers. Qus Watkins has also been

890
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:22,680
Speaker 3: flashing in camp. We have Reager entering year two with Smith,

891
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:26,319
Speaker 3: So there's a there's a scenario where got Her could

892
00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:28,839
Speaker 3: be the number one tight end with no Ertz and

893
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:31,560
Speaker 3: just he could be just another no offense where it's

894
00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 3: you're just not really getting that that consistency.

895
00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:37,040
Speaker 1: How are you handling his?

896
00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:40,600
Speaker 2: So every day that zach Ertz is still there, I'm

897
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:44,640
Speaker 2: a lowering goddards per game reception value point three, Like

898
00:43:44,719 --> 00:43:47,440
Speaker 2: every day I have an alarm set up. Is zach

899
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:48,320
Speaker 2: Hertz selling the Eagles?

900
00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 3: Yep?

901
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:51,480
Speaker 2: Okay, now I'm gray got Her just a little bit,

902
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:53,439
Speaker 2: But at any given time that can change.

903
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:56,080
Speaker 1: But how are you handling those two projections?

904
00:43:56,320 --> 00:43:59,560
Speaker 3: So what I'm doing is I kind of project routes

905
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:01,919
Speaker 3: run as you know, kind of the percentage of routes

906
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:05,120
Speaker 3: run for dropback. That's like the basis for my usage projection,

907
00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:07,239
Speaker 3: and that drives everything else. You know, then you get

908
00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:10,080
Speaker 3: the targets per route and whatever or not. But I've

909
00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:13,399
Speaker 3: just what I do is at the team level. Right now,

910
00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:15,239
Speaker 3: I just have the Eagles skill as a two tight

911
00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:16,040
Speaker 3: end team.

912
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 1: Now what would so I have.

913
00:44:18,280 --> 00:44:20,759
Speaker 3: Got got my routes run for God or just around

914
00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:24,080
Speaker 3: like seventy percent, that really won't change. What will happen

915
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:26,279
Speaker 3: is I'll just move the Eagles from a two tight

916
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 3: end team, getting you know, like, uh, you know, like

917
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:32,560
Speaker 3: one point four tight end routes. Uh, you know, we're

918
00:44:32,560 --> 00:44:34,759
Speaker 3: one hundred and forty percent your tight end routes you know,

919
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:38,439
Speaker 3: per week, to like you know, the normal like one

920
00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:40,879
Speaker 3: hundred percent, and just bump up like the fourth fifth

921
00:44:40,880 --> 00:44:41,480
Speaker 3: wide receiver.

922
00:44:42,160 --> 00:44:43,160
Speaker 1: That's really what would happen.

923
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 3: So right now, I just have them as like a

924
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:47,320
Speaker 3: tight end heavy team like they've been, So my gotter

925
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 3: projection won't change that much.

926
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 1: And that's why.

927
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:52,440
Speaker 3: I'm kind of down on you, because you know, I

928
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:54,799
Speaker 3: kind of have him locked into what I think his

929
00:44:54,920 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 3: routes are going to be, and I just don't see

930
00:44:57,480 --> 00:45:00,680
Speaker 3: a ton of room for growth if even if Earth's leaves,

931
00:45:00,680 --> 00:45:02,719
Speaker 3: because it's not like like Erth's catch rate last year

932
00:45:02,800 --> 00:45:05,000
Speaker 3: was under fifty percent. I think that would rebound, but

933
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 3: it's not like Art's taken like a ton of usage

934
00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:10,359
Speaker 3: from God or even in you know, projectile health.

935
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:12,759
Speaker 2: I think Art's will command more of a target share

936
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:17,040
Speaker 2: than Richard Rogers or you know, Jacksonoll whoever they have.

937
00:45:17,160 --> 00:45:19,880
Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm kind of with you. I think you know,

938
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:22,160
Speaker 2: god Her. Anytime he's drafted inside of the top ten

939
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:26,560
Speaker 2: right now I think is definitely dangerous because zach Ertz

940
00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:27,120
Speaker 2: is still there.

941
00:45:27,160 --> 00:45:32,400
Speaker 3: So yeah, absolutely so. And another two guys I'll talk

942
00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:36,040
Speaker 3: about just real quick. Travis Kelcey could actually be a

943
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:37,680
Speaker 3: bust and it has nothing to like. He could be

944
00:45:37,719 --> 00:45:40,400
Speaker 3: the number one overall tight end and still be a

945
00:45:40,400 --> 00:45:43,200
Speaker 3: bust if you're taking him like early to middle first round,

946
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:45,720
Speaker 3: which I've seen a lot of even sharp people doing.

947
00:45:46,320 --> 00:45:49,080
Speaker 3: And the reason is because yes, you're getting that VBD,

948
00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:52,759
Speaker 3: that massive uh you know, boost over the rest of

949
00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:55,960
Speaker 3: the position at tight end. But in that first round

950
00:45:56,520 --> 00:45:58,800
Speaker 3: you can get like a running back or wide receiver

951
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:03,759
Speaker 3: at literally outschool everyone else in fantasy at the flex positions.

952
00:46:04,239 --> 00:46:07,440
Speaker 3: And what happens is like, if Travis kelce has a

953
00:46:07,480 --> 00:46:10,840
Speaker 3: twenty nineteen Kelsey season instead of a twenty twenty Kelsey season,

954
00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:13,960
Speaker 3: it could really set you back if you're taking him

955
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:16,759
Speaker 3: that early, because remember in twenty nineteen Kelsey was the

956
00:46:16,840 --> 00:46:19,680
Speaker 3: number one overall tight end. He had ninety seven catches

957
00:46:20,600 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 3: twelve hundred and twenty nine yards and five touchdowns.

958
00:46:24,520 --> 00:46:26,960
Speaker 1: Now you know he had some touchdown variants, but he.

959
00:46:27,000 --> 00:46:30,319
Speaker 3: Was outscored by over a dozen running backs and why

960
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:33,080
Speaker 3: receivers even though he was the overall tight end one.

961
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:36,040
Speaker 3: You never see the tight end one outscore the top

962
00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:39,040
Speaker 3: running back in wide receivers. So the fact that Kelsey

963
00:46:39,080 --> 00:46:43,080
Speaker 3: was even close last year was a testament to how

964
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:46,239
Speaker 3: good he is. But you can't now if you're taking

965
00:46:46,280 --> 00:46:47,960
Speaker 3: him in the first round, you can't pair him with

966
00:46:49,160 --> 00:46:51,080
Speaker 3: you know, like a stud, like a top, like a

967
00:46:51,120 --> 00:46:53,480
Speaker 3: DeVante Adams the way you could, or a Tyreek Kill

968
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:55,239
Speaker 3: the way you could when you were getting him at

969
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:58,080
Speaker 3: the early part of round two, you know, like he

970
00:46:58,160 --> 00:46:58,919
Speaker 3: was in years past.

971
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:00,640
Speaker 1: So I just want, I just want.

972
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:02,600
Speaker 3: To put that out there that like Kelsey could actually

973
00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:05,040
Speaker 3: finish as the T one and still be a quote

974
00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:08,160
Speaker 3: unquote bust by not living up to like that top

975
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:11,560
Speaker 3: you know, top eight uh gedd value.

976
00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:13,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that that makes sense. I think people

977
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 2: that take him fifth overall like they're not wrong. But imagine,

978
00:47:18,360 --> 00:47:21,640
Speaker 2: you know, you take him pick six, let's say, and

979
00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:24,160
Speaker 2: Darren Waller would have fallen to you in round three

980
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:27,080
Speaker 2: or TJ. Hawkinson or Mark Andrews would have fallen to

981
00:47:27,120 --> 00:47:29,160
Speaker 2: you in round six, you'd probably regret it at that point.

982
00:47:29,200 --> 00:47:30,480
Speaker 2: So that's kind of what you're getting to, and I

983
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:33,479
Speaker 2: would agree is like you can get better value later

984
00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:36,799
Speaker 2: on and load up at receiver and running back earlier on.

985
00:47:36,960 --> 00:47:39,080
Speaker 1: So I'm a big.

986
00:47:39,040 --> 00:47:43,960
Speaker 2: Draft Travis Kelce, you know, pick six or seven kind

987
00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:45,799
Speaker 2: of guy. But still I can get behind that that

988
00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:49,200
Speaker 2: logic that you know he could technically be a bust

989
00:47:49,239 --> 00:47:51,960
Speaker 2: even though he finishes as the overall tight end one.

990
00:47:52,360 --> 00:47:54,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I've put I've put a lot of

991
00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:56,680
Speaker 3: research into this because I was it's like so fascinating.

992
00:47:56,920 --> 00:47:58,640
Speaker 3: So like I think a lot of people love him,

993
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:00,560
Speaker 3: especially in Best Ball because he had to top Best

994
00:48:00,560 --> 00:48:02,319
Speaker 3: Ball win rate last year because again he had a

995
00:48:02,360 --> 00:48:05,480
Speaker 3: monster season, but the year before he had one of those,

996
00:48:05,480 --> 00:48:07,640
Speaker 3: he had a low win rate, Like he was actually

997
00:48:07,680 --> 00:48:09,839
Speaker 3: negative ev and he was drafted later.

998
00:48:10,040 --> 00:48:10,480
Speaker 1: I think he was.

999
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:13,279
Speaker 3: His ADP was like seventeen, and that's just because even

1000
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:16,080
Speaker 3: at that tight end one overall season, it just wasn't

1001
00:48:16,400 --> 00:48:18,959
Speaker 3: up to snuff to where it it kind of.

1002
00:48:20,880 --> 00:48:23,480
Speaker 2: Like I'm trying to remember, it was like George Kittle

1003
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:25,759
Speaker 2: and zach Ertz. Did they hit at ADP as well.

1004
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:27,359
Speaker 2: I feel like tight end might have been a bit

1005
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:28,920
Speaker 2: stronger that year. I'm trying to remember.

1006
00:48:29,160 --> 00:48:32,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I can look it up right now. So in

1007
00:48:32,120 --> 00:48:36,400
Speaker 3: twenty nineteen, you had Kelsey number one, you had Andrews,

1008
00:48:36,600 --> 00:48:40,240
Speaker 3: and it was that big Andrews year. And yeah, Kittle,

1009
00:48:40,520 --> 00:48:43,440
Speaker 3: Kittle was too Waller Andrews Ertz, Yeah, they all, they

1010
00:48:43,480 --> 00:48:45,680
Speaker 3: all were within about a point and a half of

1011
00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:48,160
Speaker 3: Kelsey in per game in PPR.

1012
00:48:48,320 --> 00:48:50,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, we just had a lot of tight ends hit

1013
00:48:50,719 --> 00:48:53,640
Speaker 2: that year, so that that definitely hurt Kelsey. So if

1014
00:48:53,680 --> 00:48:55,879
Speaker 2: you do like guys later in the draft, yeah I would,

1015
00:48:55,920 --> 00:48:57,360
Speaker 2: I'd prefer them over Kelsey.

1016
00:48:58,080 --> 00:48:58,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, so I did.

1017
00:48:59,239 --> 00:49:01,400
Speaker 3: Again, I think if you can make it work, if

1018
00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:05,280
Speaker 3: you're getting him, like you know, pick ten, eleven, twelve,

1019
00:49:05,320 --> 00:49:07,840
Speaker 3: I think because then you can still the players that

1020
00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:09,640
Speaker 3: you would have drafted around to, it's not going to

1021
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:12,319
Speaker 3: matter as much. But I just mean, like I see

1022
00:49:12,400 --> 00:49:16,040
Speaker 3: him going like fourth, fifth, Like that's that to me,

1023
00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:17,120
Speaker 3: that's risky.

1024
00:49:17,320 --> 00:49:20,120
Speaker 2: You're taking him at his ceiling, right, You're only asking

1025
00:49:20,160 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 2: for trouble.

1026
00:49:21,120 --> 00:49:24,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, and speaking and taking at a guy at his ceiling.

1027
00:49:24,719 --> 00:49:26,959
Speaker 3: I think the same is true of Kyle Pitts being

1028
00:49:27,000 --> 00:49:29,280
Speaker 3: at the top of that tier of the next three

1029
00:49:29,719 --> 00:49:34,800
Speaker 3: at te four. You know, his medium projection is usually

1030
00:49:34,880 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 3: somewhere between seven and eight hundred yards, which is going

1031
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:39,920
Speaker 3: to that would be one of the best rookie tight

1032
00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:44,280
Speaker 3: end seasons of all time. And so you're taking him

1033
00:49:45,160 --> 00:49:49,880
Speaker 3: over wide receivers with medium projections closer to one thousand yards.

1034
00:49:50,040 --> 00:49:50,640
Speaker 1: And I get it.

1035
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:53,600
Speaker 3: It's this position scarcity, but you're taking him at the

1036
00:49:53,600 --> 00:49:55,960
Speaker 3: top of the tier. So the position scarcity, you're not

1037
00:49:55,960 --> 00:49:58,560
Speaker 3: really playing to it because you can get Andrews and

1038
00:49:58,600 --> 00:50:02,120
Speaker 3: Howkinson usually sometimes even outside the top sixty picks, so

1039
00:50:02,200 --> 00:50:05,400
Speaker 3: you know, early round six, mid round six. So I

1040
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:08,680
Speaker 3: think Kyle Pitts is another guy who relative to adp

1041
00:50:08,760 --> 00:50:12,319
Speaker 3: even though he's a great player year one, maybe it's

1042
00:50:12,400 --> 00:50:14,359
Speaker 3: kind of like Jamar Chase. It's like we're already taking

1043
00:50:14,440 --> 00:50:16,920
Speaker 3: him at his ceiling and there's no real wiggle room

1044
00:50:17,000 --> 00:50:20,120
Speaker 3: now for like all that tantalizing upside is like it's

1045
00:50:20,160 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 3: like you're kind of taking him there. So he's another

1046
00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:25,560
Speaker 3: guy I think he's going a little too high that

1047
00:50:25,560 --> 00:50:27,200
Speaker 3: that I'm not getting much of.

1048
00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:27,759
Speaker 2: All.

1049
00:50:27,840 --> 00:50:33,160
Speaker 3: Right, let's talk bounce backs at tight end Sean anyone

1050
00:50:33,200 --> 00:50:34,960
Speaker 3: who busted last year, and there are quite a few.

1051
00:50:35,000 --> 00:50:39,200
Speaker 3: I mean, ERT's Evan Ingram comes to mind. Anybody that

1052
00:50:39,280 --> 00:50:42,279
Speaker 3: busted last year that you see bouncing back.

1053
00:50:42,520 --> 00:50:45,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the most obvious one is Tyler Higbee.

1054
00:50:45,360 --> 00:50:47,200
Speaker 2: And I mentioned him last year. You know you would

1055
00:50:47,200 --> 00:50:51,200
Speaker 2: have spent you know, round seven eight capital on him,

1056
00:50:51,239 --> 00:50:55,440
Speaker 2: and you know he became droppable because Gerald Everett was

1057
00:50:55,480 --> 00:50:58,640
Speaker 2: eating into his ruts run and you know Jared Goff

1058
00:50:58,719 --> 00:51:01,920
Speaker 2: really took a step back last year. So now with

1059
00:51:02,080 --> 00:51:05,560
Speaker 2: Matthew Stafford taking over, I think that's going to be

1060
00:51:05,600 --> 00:51:08,520
Speaker 2: an upgrade and then no more jailed Everett. And yeah,

1061
00:51:08,680 --> 00:51:12,320
Speaker 2: rookie Jacob Harris could fill in that role. But I

1062
00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:14,359
Speaker 2: think you already mentioned with Kyle Pitts, it's it's really

1063
00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:17,040
Speaker 2: uncommon for rookie tight ends to really hit the ground running.

1064
00:51:17,400 --> 00:51:18,880
Speaker 2: So I think that's a good thing that he's going

1065
00:51:18,960 --> 00:51:21,919
Speaker 2: to have, you know, a potential stud rookie starting behind him.

1066
00:51:22,160 --> 00:51:24,200
Speaker 2: So I think we could see him bounce back in

1067
00:51:24,239 --> 00:51:27,200
Speaker 2: a big way this year. Probably not twenty nineteen end

1068
00:51:27,239 --> 00:51:30,480
Speaker 2: of season Tyler Higbee good, but still I think he

1069
00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:33,760
Speaker 2: has enough potential if you get him, you know around

1070
00:51:33,800 --> 00:51:37,600
Speaker 2: tight end ten, tight end twelve. I think he has

1071
00:51:37,640 --> 00:51:40,120
Speaker 2: flashed that top six ceilings. So I think he's he's

1072
00:51:40,200 --> 00:51:42,879
Speaker 2: a no brainer bounced back candidate for tight end this year.

1073
00:51:43,880 --> 00:51:44,080
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1074
00:51:44,080 --> 00:51:49,840
Speaker 3: Absolutely, he projects as my te nine and I you know,

1075
00:51:49,880 --> 00:51:54,080
Speaker 3: he finished eighteenth in overall scoring and half PPR twenty

1076
00:51:54,080 --> 00:51:56,760
Speaker 3: fourth in points per game. So he's definitely a bounced

1077
00:51:56,800 --> 00:51:59,880
Speaker 3: back candidate. But even still a guy I'm not reaching

1078
00:52:00,200 --> 00:52:01,960
Speaker 3: or like, he still has to fall to me, like

1079
00:52:01,960 --> 00:52:05,560
Speaker 3: outside the top ten, you know, for me to really bite.

1080
00:52:05,920 --> 00:52:09,480
Speaker 3: If you're missing out on the top six, what you

1081
00:52:09,600 --> 00:52:13,840
Speaker 3: really do is you just wait and if you don't get,

1082
00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:16,279
Speaker 3: like a guy like Tony in the Fall or you know,

1083
00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:20,640
Speaker 3: Higbee or IRV Smith, I think even guys like Evan

1084
00:52:20,800 --> 00:52:23,560
Speaker 3: Ingram could bounce back because you look at Ingram, he

1085
00:52:23,680 --> 00:52:26,399
Speaker 3: was fourth among tight ends and targets. We had one

1086
00:52:26,480 --> 00:52:30,000
Speaker 3: touchdown over one hundred targets and just one touchdown, so

1087
00:52:30,040 --> 00:52:34,200
Speaker 3: he's due for some touchdown regression. You know, he's he's

1088
00:52:34,239 --> 00:52:36,800
Speaker 3: the route runner, like, he's not a blocker. So Kyle

1089
00:52:36,880 --> 00:52:40,000
Speaker 3: Rudolph's signing, even though Rude has been hurt, but even

1090
00:52:40,040 --> 00:52:44,239
Speaker 3: if Rudolph's healthy, it shouldn't affect Ingram too much. Ingram

1091
00:52:44,960 --> 00:52:47,239
Speaker 3: his lowest routes run per drop back in a game

1092
00:52:47,320 --> 00:52:49,960
Speaker 3: last year with seventy seven percent, which is near the

1093
00:52:50,000 --> 00:52:52,439
Speaker 3: top of Like, if a tight end's running seventy seven

1094
00:52:52,440 --> 00:52:55,959
Speaker 3: percent routes run per week, that's great. So the fact

1095
00:52:55,960 --> 00:52:58,120
Speaker 3: that that was his low just kind of shows you.

1096
00:52:58,280 --> 00:53:02,120
Speaker 3: I think the Saquon hopefully being back and Gallade, they'll

1097
00:53:02,200 --> 00:53:05,520
Speaker 3: open up some things for Ingram, so the touchdowns could

1098
00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:08,640
Speaker 3: rebound in a major way. You're still you've got a

1099
00:53:08,640 --> 00:53:10,759
Speaker 3: guy that was top five and targets. I think he's

1100
00:53:10,800 --> 00:53:14,600
Speaker 3: a very interesting bounce back candidate at tight end and

1101
00:53:14,680 --> 00:53:17,000
Speaker 3: even earth. I think Ertz he's another guy who will

1102
00:53:17,080 --> 00:53:18,719
Speaker 3: run a high percentage of routes because he's not going

1103
00:53:18,760 --> 00:53:19,560
Speaker 3: to block too much.

1104
00:53:19,400 --> 00:53:20,160
Speaker 1: At this stage.

1105
00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:22,960
Speaker 3: And if he gets traded, he's probably getting traded to

1106
00:53:22,960 --> 00:53:24,480
Speaker 3: a place where he's gonna start anyway.

1107
00:53:24,640 --> 00:53:27,919
Speaker 1: So I think Art is pretty lower risk.

1108
00:53:28,320 --> 00:53:30,920
Speaker 3: You know, usually going outside the top twenty tight end,

1109
00:53:30,960 --> 00:53:34,520
Speaker 3: so Ingram usually goes around to fifteen, sixteen, Ertz usually

1110
00:53:34,520 --> 00:53:38,080
Speaker 3: goes around twentieth. You can get those guys there if

1111
00:53:38,120 --> 00:53:41,000
Speaker 3: you missed out on everybody. You know, if guys like

1112
00:53:41,080 --> 00:53:44,000
Speaker 3: Fan and Goddard are inconsistent. It's gonna be guys like

1113
00:53:44,200 --> 00:53:45,920
Speaker 3: Ingram and Erths that are going to climb up the

1114
00:53:45,960 --> 00:53:46,680
Speaker 3: border a little bit.

1115
00:53:46,719 --> 00:53:49,920
Speaker 1: So I like those two guys to bounce back in

1116
00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:51,000
Speaker 1: addition to Higbee.

1117
00:53:52,360 --> 00:53:56,640
Speaker 3: All right, let's uh, let's get into a new segment

1118
00:53:56,760 --> 00:54:00,880
Speaker 3: here on the fantasy flex that we call a lea entries,

1119
00:54:01,080 --> 00:54:03,960
Speaker 3: where Sean and I dive into the Prize Picks app

1120
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:08,280
Speaker 3: and compare our player projections to the props to build

1121
00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:12,560
Speaker 3: some entries. And for listeners unfamiliar with Prize Picks, it's

1122
00:54:12,560 --> 00:54:16,360
Speaker 3: a super simple way to play DFS. Prize Picks offers

1123
00:54:16,400 --> 00:54:20,680
Speaker 3: a bunch of fantasy and prop over under markets for

1124
00:54:20,719 --> 00:54:24,040
Speaker 3: both daily and season long. You got your standard stuff

1125
00:54:24,120 --> 00:54:27,280
Speaker 3: like Zeke Elliott rushing yards over under for the season

1126
00:54:27,840 --> 00:54:32,040
Speaker 3: or Josh Allen's Week one fantasy points over under. You

1127
00:54:32,080 --> 00:54:35,160
Speaker 3: can choose the bets that you like and you build

1128
00:54:35,160 --> 00:54:39,040
Speaker 3: your entry. You can go at two, three, four, or

1129
00:54:39,160 --> 00:54:43,200
Speaker 3: even five bets in Your payout is parlay based, so

1130
00:54:43,239 --> 00:54:47,120
Speaker 3: it's based on how big your entry is, how many

1131
00:54:47,320 --> 00:54:50,040
Speaker 3: bets you chose to put in your lineup, and on

1132
00:54:50,160 --> 00:54:52,600
Speaker 3: of course how much money you risk. So for example,

1133
00:54:52,719 --> 00:54:55,239
Speaker 3: if you choose two props, you go under on Zeke

1134
00:54:55,280 --> 00:54:59,360
Speaker 3: for example, and over on Josh Allen Fantasy Points, and

1135
00:54:59,400 --> 00:55:02,319
Speaker 3: you enter two twenty five dollars. If they both hit,

1136
00:55:02,680 --> 00:55:05,560
Speaker 3: you'd win three times your entry fee. That's seventy five

1137
00:55:05,600 --> 00:55:08,960
Speaker 3: dollars just like that. And if you built your entry

1138
00:55:09,000 --> 00:55:11,479
Speaker 3: with four props, you can win as much as ten

1139
00:55:11,600 --> 00:55:14,600
Speaker 3: times your entry fee. So, like I said, really simple,

1140
00:55:14,680 --> 00:55:18,600
Speaker 3: just exponentially increases with the amount of bets you choose

1141
00:55:18,640 --> 00:55:21,799
Speaker 3: to add to your entry. And Sean and I are

1142
00:55:21,800 --> 00:55:25,840
Speaker 3: going to use our projections and identify the markets we like.

1143
00:55:26,000 --> 00:55:30,120
Speaker 3: All season long, you can build prize pick entries all

1144
00:55:30,200 --> 00:55:33,080
Speaker 3: of us have a little fun and make some money.

1145
00:55:33,120 --> 00:55:36,040
Speaker 3: So today, Sean, what are we going to look at

1146
00:55:36,040 --> 00:55:38,880
Speaker 3: with our first prize picks prop? So, the first prop

1147
00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:43,120
Speaker 3: I love is Cooper Cup over five and a half touchdowns.

1148
00:55:43,920 --> 00:55:46,560
Speaker 3: I'm projecting them culture to six point seven. I think

1149
00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:49,120
Speaker 3: you know, Matthew Stafford taking over for Jared Goff really

1150
00:55:49,120 --> 00:55:53,240
Speaker 3: elevates Cups touchdown projection. The Rams had the third fewest

1151
00:55:53,239 --> 00:55:56,040
Speaker 3: pass attempts in the red zone last year, so you know,

1152
00:55:56,120 --> 00:55:59,320
Speaker 3: Sean McVay trusts Matthew Stafford. Way more he's going to

1153
00:55:59,360 --> 00:56:02,160
Speaker 3: throw way more in the red zone. Cooper cupskin of benefit.

1154
00:56:02,440 --> 00:56:05,160
Speaker 3: So I love the over here. Yeah, I got Cup

1155
00:56:05,160 --> 00:56:07,799
Speaker 3: at six point four, so we're in that same range,

1156
00:56:07,840 --> 00:56:10,120
Speaker 3: right around six and a half touchdowns. It's about a

1157
00:56:10,200 --> 00:56:15,240
Speaker 3: touchdown over the prize pick number for me. My first

1158
00:56:15,239 --> 00:56:19,360
Speaker 3: prop is going to be Rashad Perraman under seven forty

1159
00:56:19,360 --> 00:56:22,279
Speaker 3: five and a half receiving yards for the season. First

1160
00:56:22,280 --> 00:56:26,120
Speaker 3: of all, Rashad Perlman has never gained more than six

1161
00:56:26,239 --> 00:56:30,879
Speaker 3: hundred and forty five receiving yards in five NFL seasons.

1162
00:56:31,360 --> 00:56:34,120
Speaker 3: His role on the lines is not solidified. Where is

1163
00:56:34,160 --> 00:56:38,120
Speaker 3: He's been playing behind Khalif Raymond in camp. And on

1164
00:56:38,160 --> 00:56:41,200
Speaker 3: top of that, Jared Goff is a quarterback that is

1165
00:56:41,200 --> 00:56:43,839
Speaker 3: going to have a low average target and not really

1166
00:56:43,880 --> 00:56:48,640
Speaker 3: look at the outside receivers running the deep routes, which

1167
00:56:48,680 --> 00:56:54,120
Speaker 3: is Peraman's forte So I love the under seven forty

1168
00:56:54,160 --> 00:56:56,840
Speaker 3: five and a half on Powerman's receiving yards. I have

1169
00:56:57,120 --> 00:56:59,799
Speaker 3: him going under that by a few hundred. I think

1170
00:56:59,840 --> 00:57:03,359
Speaker 3: that usage is way inflated. So going under seven forty

1171
00:57:03,400 --> 00:57:06,320
Speaker 3: five and a half prepairman Sean. Let's get another prize

1172
00:57:06,360 --> 00:57:07,280
Speaker 3: picks prop.

1173
00:57:07,760 --> 00:57:10,960
Speaker 2: So The other prop I love is Jalen Hurts over

1174
00:57:11,520 --> 00:57:14,080
Speaker 2: six hundred and fifty five and a half rushing yards.

1175
00:57:14,320 --> 00:57:17,600
Speaker 2: I'm projecting him closer to seven fifty. You know, there

1176
00:57:17,760 --> 00:57:20,600
Speaker 2: is some uncertainty if he'll take a second your leap

1177
00:57:20,640 --> 00:57:23,600
Speaker 2: as a passer, but we already know he's an elite

1178
00:57:23,680 --> 00:57:27,440
Speaker 2: rushing QB, and rushing stats are more predictive. So the

1179
00:57:27,480 --> 00:57:30,680
Speaker 2: way I would phrase this prop is basically, will Jalen

1180
00:57:30,720 --> 00:57:33,120
Speaker 2: Hurts play more than thirteen and a half games? And

1181
00:57:33,240 --> 00:57:35,640
Speaker 2: I would say the answer is yes. So I love

1182
00:57:35,680 --> 00:57:37,760
Speaker 2: the over here six hundred and fifty five and a

1183
00:57:37,760 --> 00:57:38,920
Speaker 2: half rushing yards.

1184
00:57:39,400 --> 00:57:42,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have him at seven seventy six, So I'm

1185
00:57:42,080 --> 00:57:45,600
Speaker 3: right with you. We're both in that mid seven fifties range.

1186
00:57:45,640 --> 00:57:48,360
Speaker 3: I think you got about one hundred yards of value there,

1187
00:57:48,680 --> 00:57:52,000
Speaker 3: and I'll meet your second over with a second under.

1188
00:57:52,440 --> 00:57:56,280
Speaker 3: I'm going Denzel Mims under five hundred and fifty and

1189
00:57:56,280 --> 00:58:01,720
Speaker 3: a half receiving yards on prize picks. Mims averaged about

1190
00:58:01,760 --> 00:58:04,880
Speaker 3: forty yards per game in his rookie season on a

1191
00:58:04,960 --> 00:58:09,400
Speaker 3: fifty six percent routes run per drop back rate, but

1192
00:58:10,320 --> 00:58:13,040
Speaker 3: that rate could go down a lot this year because

1193
00:58:13,640 --> 00:58:19,120
Speaker 3: Corey Davis Jamison Crowder and the rookie Elijah Moore and

1194
00:58:19,800 --> 00:58:23,520
Speaker 3: Keelan Cole the veteran signing have all been running ahead

1195
00:58:23,560 --> 00:58:27,000
Speaker 3: of Denzel Mims entering year two. Remember, Mims was drafted

1196
00:58:27,000 --> 00:58:29,960
Speaker 3: by the previous regime and he was as low as

1197
00:58:30,480 --> 00:58:35,040
Speaker 3: third string earlier in camp. He had some weight issues

1198
00:58:35,080 --> 00:58:39,280
Speaker 3: and whatnot. But even if he gets back to form,

1199
00:58:39,600 --> 00:58:41,560
Speaker 3: he may still be no higher than fifth on the

1200
00:58:41,600 --> 00:58:44,080
Speaker 3: depth chart. So this is another one. I don't see

1201
00:58:44,120 --> 00:58:48,040
Speaker 3: how you can project him to go for another you know,

1202
00:58:48,120 --> 00:58:50,560
Speaker 3: thirty five forty yards a game this year based on

1203
00:58:50,600 --> 00:58:54,320
Speaker 3: the depth chart. So I'm under five hundred and fifty

1204
00:58:54,360 --> 00:58:57,160
Speaker 3: and a half receiving yards for Denzel Mims, all right,

1205
00:58:57,200 --> 00:59:01,160
Speaker 3: So that's our Prize Picks Elite entry for today.

1206
00:59:01,560 --> 00:59:03,600
Speaker 1: To recap Sean going.

1207
00:59:03,520 --> 00:59:07,480
Speaker 3: Cooper Cup over five and a half touchdowns and Jalen

1208
00:59:07,560 --> 00:59:12,640
Speaker 3: Hurts over six hundred fifty five and day half rushing yards,

1209
00:59:13,200 --> 00:59:17,880
Speaker 3: and I'm going Brashad Perriman under seven hundred and forty

1210
00:59:17,880 --> 00:59:21,880
Speaker 3: five and a half receiving yards and Denzel Mims under

1211
00:59:22,440 --> 00:59:25,960
Speaker 3: five hundred and fifty and a half receiving yards. As

1212
00:59:26,000 --> 00:59:30,080
Speaker 3: a reminder, Prize Picks markets move, so you want to

1213
00:59:30,080 --> 00:59:33,560
Speaker 3: be nimble to lock in the best numbers. If you

1214
00:59:33,720 --> 00:59:37,080
Speaker 3: haven't created a prize Picks account yet, check out the

1215
00:59:37,080 --> 00:59:40,520
Speaker 3: link in our episode description and they will match your

1216
00:59:40,600 --> 00:59:46,080
Speaker 3: first deposit up to one hundred dollars. Or visit prizepicks

1217
00:59:46,440 --> 00:59:50,480
Speaker 3: dot com and use the promo code action one zero

1218
00:59:50,720 --> 00:59:57,880
Speaker 3: act Ion one zero at prizepicks dot com. All right,

1219
00:59:58,400 --> 01:00:02,320
Speaker 3: next up on the Fantasy Flex presented by prize Picks,

1220
01:00:02,600 --> 01:00:06,640
Speaker 3: Let's get to the quarterback bust. To close it out, Sean,

1221
01:00:07,040 --> 01:00:10,080
Speaker 3: who do you think could potentially bust at the quarterback

1222
01:00:10,120 --> 01:00:10,800
Speaker 3: position this year?

1223
01:00:10,840 --> 01:00:12,400
Speaker 2: I'm gonna have to go with Aaron Rodgers and I

1224
01:00:12,440 --> 01:00:15,439
Speaker 2: hate to say it because he's my QB eight, he's

1225
01:00:15,480 --> 01:00:18,720
Speaker 2: being drafted QB eight, but he just doesn't fit in

1226
01:00:18,760 --> 01:00:22,480
Speaker 2: my draft plan of you know, once these six quarterbacks

1227
01:00:22,480 --> 01:00:24,800
Speaker 2: are off the board, you get this mini tier of

1228
01:00:24,960 --> 01:00:28,000
Speaker 2: Justin Herbert and Aaron Rodgers where I haven't ranked where

1229
01:00:28,000 --> 01:00:31,080
Speaker 2: they are, but I think you're spending a little bit

1230
01:00:31,120 --> 01:00:33,480
Speaker 2: too much. I think both quarterbacks could be due for

1231
01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:37,200
Speaker 2: some regression. Aaron Rodgers, I mean he went ballistic last

1232
01:00:37,200 --> 01:00:39,720
Speaker 2: season with forty eight passing touchdowns. Who knows if that

1233
01:00:39,880 --> 01:00:42,560
Speaker 2: was just being pissed off that Jordan Love has taken

1234
01:00:42,640 --> 01:00:45,760
Speaker 2: first round, but he had thrown for over thirty touchdowns

1235
01:00:45,760 --> 01:00:48,920
Speaker 2: since twenty sixteen, so I'm expecting a little bit of

1236
01:00:48,920 --> 01:00:52,360
Speaker 2: regression there. And he's a guy where, you know, when

1237
01:00:52,400 --> 01:00:53,880
Speaker 2: he had I think it was five years in a

1238
01:00:53,960 --> 01:00:56,240
Speaker 2: row of being the QB one, he had some rushing

1239
01:00:56,320 --> 01:00:59,960
Speaker 2: upside that's long gone now he doesn't provide that any more.

1240
01:01:00,120 --> 01:01:02,959
Speaker 2: Or and you know, we have real running quarterbacks now,

1241
01:01:03,320 --> 01:01:06,440
Speaker 2: so I think it makes the QB two tier just

1242
01:01:06,560 --> 01:01:08,680
Speaker 2: you know, way more valuable than it used to be.

1243
01:01:09,200 --> 01:01:11,320
Speaker 2: So if I miss out on the top six quarterbacks,

1244
01:01:11,360 --> 01:01:13,840
Speaker 2: I'm in a punt quarterback and begin the season streaming.

1245
01:01:13,880 --> 01:01:16,200
Speaker 2: Maybe take a chance on like a Trey Lance or

1246
01:01:16,360 --> 01:01:19,360
Speaker 2: justin fields. But you know, I think Aaron Rodgers, I

1247
01:01:19,360 --> 01:01:22,760
Speaker 2: think people regret spending high draft keuple on that when

1248
01:01:22,920 --> 01:01:25,280
Speaker 2: you know, running back and wide receiver especially start to

1249
01:01:25,320 --> 01:01:27,400
Speaker 2: fall off. So I like getting an extra running back

1250
01:01:27,400 --> 01:01:30,440
Speaker 2: of receiver in this range. So that's why Aaron Rodgers

1251
01:01:30,440 --> 01:01:31,120
Speaker 2: is a bust for me.

1252
01:01:31,360 --> 01:01:35,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's you know, it really kind of depends, I think,

1253
01:01:35,160 --> 01:01:37,840
Speaker 3: on where you get these guys. Because it's another situation

1254
01:01:37,960 --> 01:01:41,479
Speaker 3: where I went back and looked at where the top

1255
01:01:41,520 --> 01:01:49,200
Speaker 3: five quarterbacks in a fantasy since twenty fourteen have been drafted,

1256
01:01:49,400 --> 01:01:52,160
Speaker 3: and the median pick for to find the top five

1257
01:01:52,240 --> 01:01:56,640
Speaker 3: quarterback was eighty fifth overall. And so any like any

1258
01:01:56,720 --> 01:02:00,440
Speaker 3: quarterback that's going high in the draft is is a

1259
01:02:00,480 --> 01:02:03,080
Speaker 3: guy that could potentially bust just based on the fact

1260
01:02:03,120 --> 01:02:05,560
Speaker 3: that there's likely going to be a few guys that

1261
01:02:05,600 --> 01:02:09,040
Speaker 3: you could find later on that are giving you a similar,

1262
01:02:09,560 --> 01:02:13,440
Speaker 3: you know, similar upside. And I think there is truly

1263
01:02:13,520 --> 01:02:18,400
Speaker 3: a tear drop, like there's Mahomes, Alan Murray, Jackson, Wilson, Prescott,

1264
01:02:18,400 --> 01:02:20,920
Speaker 3: and then there's everyone else just because those guys give

1265
01:02:20,960 --> 01:02:25,240
Speaker 3: you that rushing upside. Mahomes is obviously Mahomes, but you

1266
01:02:25,320 --> 01:02:28,040
Speaker 3: look at like last year, for example, Mahomes and Lamar

1267
01:02:28,120 --> 01:02:29,520
Speaker 3: Jackson were the two guys you got to pay a

1268
01:02:29,520 --> 01:02:33,080
Speaker 3: premium for, and then you could get Watson and Murray

1269
01:02:33,120 --> 01:02:37,440
Speaker 3: and Prescott and Wilson all after you know, round six

1270
01:02:37,760 --> 01:02:40,360
Speaker 3: and you know, or in round six or later, and

1271
01:02:40,400 --> 01:02:41,040
Speaker 3: those are the guys.

1272
01:02:41,040 --> 01:02:43,440
Speaker 1: So I think it's it's more about paying a premium.

1273
01:02:43,720 --> 01:02:46,760
Speaker 3: So I actually don't hate Aaron Rodgers, to be completely honest,

1274
01:02:46,800 --> 01:02:50,560
Speaker 3: just because I still get him like in that eighty

1275
01:02:50,880 --> 01:02:53,880
Speaker 3: pick eightieth overall plus range where I'm not really paying

1276
01:02:53,880 --> 01:02:56,560
Speaker 3: that like season before premium for a guy at through

1277
01:02:56,560 --> 01:02:57,520
Speaker 3: forty eight touchdowns.

1278
01:02:58,520 --> 01:03:00,320
Speaker 1: Like I get it, I get it. I think he.

1279
01:03:00,280 --> 01:03:03,840
Speaker 3: Could obviously regress, but I personally don't hate him. The

1280
01:03:03,920 --> 01:03:07,440
Speaker 3: guy I'm actually staying away from a little more is

1281
01:03:07,680 --> 01:03:11,120
Speaker 3: Justin Herbert. And the reason because is you have those

1282
01:03:11,120 --> 01:03:15,400
Speaker 3: top six and then Herbert is kind of in is

1283
01:03:15,440 --> 01:03:19,000
Speaker 3: that seven consensus. I think if we look back at

1284
01:03:19,000 --> 01:03:21,880
Speaker 3: the end of the season, we might say, oh, my goodness,

1285
01:03:21,880 --> 01:03:25,920
Speaker 3: did I really take Justin Herbert over Aaron Rodgers, Tom

1286
01:03:25,960 --> 01:03:30,080
Speaker 3: Brady and Jalen Hurts because Hurts has that Lamar Kayer

1287
01:03:30,240 --> 01:03:33,800
Speaker 3: upside because of the Russian Rogers, he still did throw

1288
01:03:33,840 --> 01:03:35,920
Speaker 3: forty eight touchdowns last year and has done it in

1289
01:03:35,960 --> 01:03:36,440
Speaker 3: the past.

1290
01:03:36,880 --> 01:03:39,800
Speaker 1: And then and then Tom Brady, we can't.

1291
01:03:39,520 --> 01:03:42,920
Speaker 3: Stop like waxing poetic about how he has all these weapons,

1292
01:03:43,000 --> 01:03:45,400
Speaker 3: all this continuity, even has a better receiving back than

1293
01:03:45,480 --> 01:03:48,440
Speaker 3: last year. I mean he could, as you've said, You've

1294
01:03:48,440 --> 01:03:50,000
Speaker 3: made a really good point that he could have that

1295
01:03:50,080 --> 01:03:53,320
Speaker 3: like year two Peyton Manning Broncos type of just explosion

1296
01:03:53,880 --> 01:03:56,840
Speaker 3: and Herbert there's just a lot of reasons for aggressing,

1297
01:03:56,840 --> 01:03:59,640
Speaker 3: even if he is still a very good quarterback, which

1298
01:03:59,680 --> 01:04:01,720
Speaker 3: I think I was on for rookie the year last year.

1299
01:04:02,240 --> 01:04:06,080
Speaker 1: But seventy point four plays per game, that's.

1300
01:04:05,920 --> 01:04:09,000
Speaker 3: How many plays the Chargers average in his starts that

1301
01:04:09,080 --> 01:04:12,760
Speaker 3: the league average is sixty four. So he played some overtime.

1302
01:04:13,160 --> 01:04:15,600
Speaker 3: They were you know, it was just a high tempo

1303
01:04:15,640 --> 01:04:18,280
Speaker 3: at times. Now we have a new offense we have,

1304
01:04:19,440 --> 01:04:23,720
Speaker 3: you know, potentially just it's just a whole new situation where,

1305
01:04:23,960 --> 01:04:26,160
Speaker 3: you know, better offensive line. Maybe they've run it a

1306
01:04:26,160 --> 01:04:30,680
Speaker 3: little more with We don't know. But the last year's numbers,

1307
01:04:30,720 --> 01:04:33,880
Speaker 3: not just the place per game, the thirty one touchdowns,

1308
01:04:34,240 --> 01:04:36,280
Speaker 3: a lot of those are on deep balls. That tends

1309
01:04:36,320 --> 01:04:39,080
Speaker 3: to aggress. He was excellent under pressure, which is great,

1310
01:04:39,360 --> 01:04:42,240
Speaker 3: except pressure numbers don't tend to carry over year to

1311
01:04:42,320 --> 01:04:46,360
Speaker 3: year potentially because all pressure situations are so different. So like,

1312
01:04:46,480 --> 01:04:49,160
Speaker 3: just because a guy is really good under pressure, you know,

1313
01:04:49,200 --> 01:04:52,240
Speaker 3: one year, doesn't necessarily mean he'll have the same level

1314
01:04:52,280 --> 01:04:56,080
Speaker 3: of success. And so Herbert was a lot like more

1315
01:04:56,120 --> 01:04:59,400
Speaker 3: average when it came to a clean pocket. So I

1316
01:04:59,560 --> 01:05:02,080
Speaker 3: just person we think Herbert has a much better chance

1317
01:05:02,160 --> 01:05:06,960
Speaker 3: of kind of falling into that Pannahill, Burrough, Stafford, Ryan

1318
01:05:07,160 --> 01:05:11,240
Speaker 3: Cousins tier than he does of competing with that top

1319
01:05:11,320 --> 01:05:14,360
Speaker 3: six and you know, hurts Rogers and Brady. Like I

1320
01:05:14,400 --> 01:05:17,080
Speaker 3: think it's I think it's a lot volume based based

1321
01:05:17,120 --> 01:05:19,200
Speaker 3: on last year, but plays per game, I mean that

1322
01:05:19,240 --> 01:05:22,080
Speaker 3: tends to regress. Like like if a guy like the Chargers,

1323
01:05:22,160 --> 01:05:24,360
Speaker 3: do you have him anywhere close to seventy plays per

1324
01:05:24,360 --> 01:05:24,919
Speaker 3: game this year?

1325
01:05:25,360 --> 01:05:25,640
Speaker 1: No?

1326
01:05:25,680 --> 01:05:28,760
Speaker 2: Not not not high. No, it's definitely in arrests.

1327
01:05:28,960 --> 01:05:30,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, So like that's kind of what I'm banking out

1328
01:05:30,960 --> 01:05:33,720
Speaker 3: with Herbert is just you know, a lot. I think

1329
01:05:33,760 --> 01:05:36,640
Speaker 3: he's a very good quarterback, but he doesn't have that

1330
01:05:36,680 --> 01:05:40,640
Speaker 3: same level of rushing and to compete with those top

1331
01:05:40,680 --> 01:05:41,320
Speaker 3: six guys.

1332
01:05:41,800 --> 01:05:42,880
Speaker 1: And I don't know.

1333
01:05:42,800 --> 01:05:46,920
Speaker 3: If he has that passing efficiency to compete with Rogers

1334
01:05:47,160 --> 01:05:49,640
Speaker 3: and Brady or at least sorry, go ahead.

1335
01:05:49,440 --> 01:05:52,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, he has sneaky rushing outside. But I think

1336
01:05:52,400 --> 01:05:54,480
Speaker 2: I agree with you where his floor is much much

1337
01:05:54,520 --> 01:05:57,560
Speaker 2: lower than people are willing to let on. Whereas I

1338
01:05:57,560 --> 01:05:59,800
Speaker 2: think Eric Rodgers will finish as a top ten quarter

1339
01:06:00,520 --> 01:06:02,600
Speaker 2: But when I mentioned streamers, you know, if you follow

1340
01:06:02,640 --> 01:06:05,720
Speaker 2: my streaming article every year, I can typically stream the

1341
01:06:05,800 --> 01:06:08,840
Speaker 2: QB six to QB ten every year just playing matchups.

1342
01:06:09,040 --> 01:06:11,760
Speaker 2: What other position can you do that you really can't,

1343
01:06:11,800 --> 01:06:14,360
Speaker 2: Like wide receiver, if you were to stream guys like

1344
01:06:14,440 --> 01:06:17,520
Speaker 2: Rondelle Moore or tradequn spits like that, like, you're not

1345
01:06:17,560 --> 01:06:20,440
Speaker 2: going to get like an elite wide receiver one. So

1346
01:06:20,640 --> 01:06:23,640
Speaker 2: I'm just saying at quarterback, it's so easy to match

1347
01:06:23,720 --> 01:06:27,080
Speaker 2: this level of production just by using the waiver wire

1348
01:06:27,240 --> 01:06:30,120
Speaker 2: and one quarterback leagues of course. So that's that's kind

1349
01:06:30,160 --> 01:06:33,280
Speaker 2: of why I'm avoiding this here. But yeah, you're absolutely right,

1350
01:06:33,480 --> 01:06:36,440
Speaker 2: Herbert definitely has a low floor for being.

1351
01:06:36,320 --> 01:06:38,280
Speaker 1: Drafted as the QB seven. Yeah.

1352
01:06:38,280 --> 01:06:41,280
Speaker 3: Absolutely, And we're just nitpicking here in the quarterback right

1353
01:06:41,480 --> 01:06:44,320
Speaker 3: because you know, you know, you could always wait, but

1354
01:06:44,440 --> 01:06:47,080
Speaker 3: I just you know, if you're drafting in that range

1355
01:06:47,680 --> 01:06:50,640
Speaker 3: of you know, outside the top six, you're already giving

1356
01:06:50,720 --> 01:06:53,520
Speaker 3: up a decent amount. I just don't see why you

1357
01:06:53,520 --> 01:06:59,600
Speaker 3: would go Herbert seven over Brady Rogers and uh, you know,

1358
01:06:59,800 --> 01:07:00,520
Speaker 3: and Jalen hurts.

1359
01:07:00,560 --> 01:07:02,960
Speaker 1: So Jalen hurts, yep. Yeah, so that's kind of where

1360
01:07:02,960 --> 01:07:03,120
Speaker 1: I am.

1361
01:07:03,120 --> 01:07:05,160
Speaker 3: I get Jaalen hurts so much like if he gets injured,

1362
01:07:05,360 --> 01:07:07,160
Speaker 3: it's gonna be like half of my best ball teams

1363
01:07:07,160 --> 01:07:11,919
Speaker 3: that just are just sunk. So hopefully Jalen can stay

1364
01:07:11,920 --> 01:07:15,600
Speaker 3: healthy and no more stomach stomach illnesses or whatever not.

1365
01:07:15,760 --> 01:07:19,160
Speaker 3: But let's close it up with some potential bounce backs

1366
01:07:19,200 --> 01:07:22,040
Speaker 3: at the quarterback position. Anyone who busted to ask your

1367
01:07:22,080 --> 01:07:24,680
Speaker 3: sean that you feel good about a bounce back in

1368
01:07:24,760 --> 01:07:25,880
Speaker 3: twenty twenty one.

1369
01:07:26,160 --> 01:07:29,120
Speaker 2: So I don't even consider this guy a bus last year,

1370
01:07:29,160 --> 01:07:31,840
Speaker 2: but the perception of him sure seems to be that way.

1371
01:07:31,880 --> 01:07:34,360
Speaker 2: And it's big Ben and this is for two QB

1372
01:07:34,480 --> 01:07:36,640
Speaker 2: super flex leagues. I would never draft him in a

1373
01:07:36,720 --> 01:07:39,160
Speaker 2: one quarterback league. But you know, he's coming off the

1374
01:07:39,240 --> 01:07:42,080
Speaker 2: season where people are considering him washed. And he threw

1375
01:07:42,120 --> 01:07:45,400
Speaker 2: for thirty three touchdowns last year and his team led

1376
01:07:45,400 --> 01:07:47,440
Speaker 2: the league in drops, So I think we're going to

1377
01:07:47,480 --> 01:07:50,920
Speaker 2: see an improvement in terms of drops from his past catchers.

1378
01:07:51,240 --> 01:07:54,880
Speaker 2: Plus he looked really, really sharp this weekend in preseason,

1379
01:07:54,920 --> 01:07:57,480
Speaker 2: and I'm really thinking that last year, you know, maybe

1380
01:07:57,480 --> 01:07:59,160
Speaker 2: they didn't throw it down Fiel as much because his

1381
01:07:59,600 --> 01:08:02,400
Speaker 2: elbows surgery wasn't you know, it wasn't one hundred percent

1382
01:08:02,480 --> 01:08:04,360
Speaker 2: last year, and this year he does look like he's

1383
01:08:04,360 --> 01:08:07,760
Speaker 2: one hundred percent, So I think he has some sneaky

1384
01:08:07,800 --> 01:08:10,640
Speaker 2: low end QB one upside. Certainly he doesn't have the

1385
01:08:10,680 --> 01:08:14,120
Speaker 2: ceiling of Jalen Hurts, but for a two QB league,

1386
01:08:14,160 --> 01:08:16,240
Speaker 2: I think he provides a high floor you're looking for

1387
01:08:16,600 --> 01:08:18,320
Speaker 2: and a massive ceiling because this is one of the

1388
01:08:18,320 --> 01:08:22,200
Speaker 2: best wide receiver trios in the league. Even rookie Pat Fearmouth.

1389
01:08:22,240 --> 01:08:24,559
Speaker 2: That tight end could be a nice weapon this year.

1390
01:08:24,600 --> 01:08:26,280
Speaker 2: So there's a lot of reasons to like the Ben.

1391
01:08:26,360 --> 01:08:28,720
Speaker 2: This could be his final season, and I think he

1392
01:08:28,760 --> 01:08:29,479
Speaker 2: goes out with the bank.

1393
01:08:29,640 --> 01:08:30,559
Speaker 1: Yeah. I like that call.

1394
01:08:30,600 --> 01:08:33,679
Speaker 3: I've been really warming up to Big Ben, especially considering

1395
01:08:33,680 --> 01:08:35,559
Speaker 3: where you can get him in most weeks that you're

1396
01:08:35,600 --> 01:08:38,400
Speaker 3: going to be drafting two qbs, which are best balls,

1397
01:08:38,479 --> 01:08:41,200
Speaker 3: or two QB leagues. He goes at that back end

1398
01:08:41,200 --> 01:08:43,799
Speaker 3: of that tier, and I think there is some value

1399
01:08:43,800 --> 01:08:46,120
Speaker 3: there because he's going to be throwing it like, he's

1400
01:08:46,160 --> 01:08:47,840
Speaker 3: not going to run, he's not going to scramble, he's

1401
01:08:47,840 --> 01:08:48,639
Speaker 3: not going to get sacked.

1402
01:08:48,680 --> 01:08:51,000
Speaker 1: He's got a ton of good receivers. So I like

1403
01:08:51,080 --> 01:08:51,800
Speaker 1: that call a lot.

1404
01:08:52,640 --> 01:08:56,200
Speaker 3: My bounce back candidates I got two. One is Joe Burrow,

1405
01:08:56,600 --> 01:08:59,519
Speaker 3: who even when he was healthy, was the QB eighteen

1406
01:08:59,520 --> 01:09:01,479
Speaker 3: in points per game.

1407
01:09:01,680 --> 01:09:03,800
Speaker 1: He was the twenty fifth quarterback.

1408
01:09:03,439 --> 01:09:07,120
Speaker 3: Overall, because of course he missed a handful of games

1409
01:09:07,360 --> 01:09:10,320
Speaker 3: to close out the year. But I think he bounces

1410
01:09:10,360 --> 01:09:12,920
Speaker 3: back and I think he's the guy that can give

1411
01:09:12,960 --> 01:09:17,080
Speaker 3: you the same production that you're drafting. Justin Herbert seventh

1412
01:09:17,080 --> 01:09:21,599
Speaker 3: for you know, Burrow averaged forty point four pass attempts

1413
01:09:21,600 --> 01:09:24,080
Speaker 3: per game. I think that was inflated by an overtime

1414
01:09:24,160 --> 01:09:27,040
Speaker 3: game or two as well, but Cincinnati has been pretty

1415
01:09:27,080 --> 01:09:31,160
Speaker 3: pass heavy under Zach Taylor, so you know, unlike Herbert,

1416
01:09:31,760 --> 01:09:33,479
Speaker 3: Burrow's kind of going to be in the you know,

1417
01:09:33,640 --> 01:09:38,000
Speaker 3: still same offense entering year two. I think this is

1418
01:09:38,000 --> 01:09:39,800
Speaker 3: a guy who you could get a couple of rounds

1419
01:09:39,880 --> 01:09:43,600
Speaker 3: later that that's where the value is for him. I

1420
01:09:43,640 --> 01:09:46,360
Speaker 3: think Herbert is the guy that's going a little too early.

1421
01:09:46,400 --> 01:09:49,960
Speaker 3: And then Daniel Jones, two QB League best ball guy,

1422
01:09:51,240 --> 01:09:55,360
Speaker 3: finished just the thirty second quarterback in per game points.

1423
01:09:56,040 --> 01:09:57,479
Speaker 3: I don't know if you want to stream him to

1424
01:09:57,520 --> 01:09:59,640
Speaker 3: start the year because I believe the Giants face was

1425
01:09:59,640 --> 01:10:01,120
Speaker 3: a Washington.

1426
01:10:01,160 --> 01:10:01,720
Speaker 1: I think it is.

1427
01:10:02,479 --> 01:10:05,000
Speaker 3: I know it's two tough defenses. I think it's Denver Washington,

1428
01:10:05,760 --> 01:10:08,519
Speaker 3: but I think on the season. I think he'll have

1429
01:10:08,600 --> 01:10:09,200
Speaker 3: some value.

1430
01:10:09,280 --> 01:10:12,559
Speaker 1: He can run. He's one of the few quarterbacks you know.

1431
01:10:12,520 --> 01:10:15,479
Speaker 3: Outside that top six that can give you legit rushing

1432
01:10:15,520 --> 01:10:18,200
Speaker 3: upside on a weekly basis. And you know, if you

1433
01:10:18,280 --> 01:10:21,080
Speaker 3: think Saequan is going to be, you know, up to snuff,

1434
01:10:21,080 --> 01:10:24,360
Speaker 3: and Yelta got Gallada, So you got a pretty good

1435
01:10:24,640 --> 01:10:28,120
Speaker 3: group of targets for For Daniel Jones. We have seen

1436
01:10:28,200 --> 01:10:30,320
Speaker 3: him throw the three hundred plus yard games. We have

1437
01:10:30,400 --> 01:10:33,719
Speaker 3: seen him through the four plus touchdowns you know, three times.

1438
01:10:33,720 --> 01:10:35,720
Speaker 3: I believe it was in his rookie year. So he

1439
01:10:35,840 --> 01:10:38,559
Speaker 3: has that upside. You know, he has the upside throwing

1440
01:10:38,560 --> 01:10:42,440
Speaker 3: and running. The defense for the Giant should be mediocre,

1441
01:10:42,720 --> 01:10:46,200
Speaker 3: but I think Jones has some kind of long shot

1442
01:10:46,240 --> 01:10:49,479
Speaker 3: bounce back potential where he could he could potentially finish

1443
01:10:49,640 --> 01:10:53,000
Speaker 3: you know, low end QB one if all things go right,

1444
01:10:53,040 --> 01:10:56,120
Speaker 3: just because that rushing upside is so valuable. So burrowing

1445
01:10:56,240 --> 01:11:01,479
Speaker 3: Jones for me bouncebacks and that, yeah, that'll get us

1446
01:11:01,479 --> 01:11:04,280
Speaker 3: through all the positions. I'm not going to do a

1447
01:11:04,320 --> 01:11:07,639
Speaker 3: potential bust at kicker. Hopefully your league doesn't even draft

1448
01:11:07,720 --> 01:11:15,840
Speaker 3: kickers anymore. You're right, Yeah, the Titans kicker and in defense. Yeah,

1449
01:11:15,960 --> 01:11:19,519
Speaker 3: I think that's another one where it's just all about

1450
01:11:19,520 --> 01:11:23,920
Speaker 3: the streaming. So let's recap Sean, who is your top

1451
01:11:24,120 --> 01:11:27,920
Speaker 3: bus candidate for twenty twenty one at each fantasy position?

1452
01:11:28,560 --> 01:11:29,480
Speaker 1: So quarterback.

1453
01:11:30,080 --> 01:11:32,559
Speaker 2: Unfortunately, I'm saying Aaron Rodgers is a bust, even though

1454
01:11:32,600 --> 01:11:34,640
Speaker 2: I am in line with him at ADP as the

1455
01:11:34,720 --> 01:11:37,200
Speaker 2: QB eight. I just think at that point the draft

1456
01:11:37,200 --> 01:11:40,960
Speaker 2: you're better off hunting the position. It's your capable of

1457
01:11:41,000 --> 01:11:45,000
Speaker 2: streaming a top ten quarterback anyway, so why waste draft

1458
01:11:45,000 --> 01:11:47,720
Speaker 2: capital when you can just stream it. Miles Gaskin at

1459
01:11:47,800 --> 01:11:50,760
Speaker 2: running back, just be careful, don't draft him inside the

1460
01:11:50,800 --> 01:11:53,920
Speaker 2: top twenty five. Yes, he's their Week one starter, and

1461
01:11:53,960 --> 01:11:56,479
Speaker 2: I do think he has RB two upside. But with

1462
01:11:56,600 --> 01:11:58,479
Speaker 2: Brian Floor as a head coach, this is a Bill

1463
01:11:58,520 --> 01:12:01,439
Speaker 2: Belichick style coach team where you know it could be

1464
01:12:01,479 --> 01:12:03,400
Speaker 2: a headache. We could see a hot hand approach with

1465
01:12:03,439 --> 01:12:07,040
Speaker 2: Malcolm Brown Salvin Akmed there, so just be careful. And

1466
01:12:07,040 --> 01:12:10,200
Speaker 2: then Adam Feeling at wide receiver. He's the kind of

1467
01:12:10,200 --> 01:12:12,640
Speaker 2: guy where if he falls to me at the end

1468
01:12:12,640 --> 01:12:14,880
Speaker 2: of the wide receiver two tier, that's fine, But I

1469
01:12:14,920 --> 01:12:17,840
Speaker 2: think he's due for some massive touchdown regression this year

1470
01:12:17,840 --> 01:12:21,200
Speaker 2: after scoring fourteen touchdowns last year, and then he.

1471
01:12:21,160 --> 01:12:22,759
Speaker 1: Has a very low weekly floor.

1472
01:12:22,800 --> 01:12:26,040
Speaker 2: He finished outside of the top sixty twenty seven percent

1473
01:12:26,120 --> 01:12:28,679
Speaker 2: of the time last year. That's very low for wide receiver.

1474
01:12:28,760 --> 01:12:31,439
Speaker 2: Two not the type of wide receiver I like having

1475
01:12:31,520 --> 01:12:34,880
Speaker 2: a fantasy. And then at tight end, Noah Fant similar

1476
01:12:34,960 --> 01:12:37,000
Speaker 2: to Aaron Rodgers. I have him ranked in line with

1477
01:12:37,080 --> 01:12:39,760
Speaker 2: adp at tight end seven, but once the top six

1478
01:12:39,800 --> 01:12:41,799
Speaker 2: tight ends are off the boarder, you're better off waiting

1479
01:12:42,120 --> 01:12:44,720
Speaker 2: and drafting an IRV Smith much later on. He has

1480
01:12:44,880 --> 01:12:47,880
Speaker 2: just as much much upside, but you get him super cheap.

1481
01:12:48,040 --> 01:12:50,559
Speaker 2: So that's how I'm handling the tight end position this year.

1482
01:12:50,880 --> 01:12:54,360
Speaker 3: My top fantasy bust at quarterback for twenty twenty one

1483
01:12:54,520 --> 01:12:59,440
Speaker 3: is Justin Herbert. I expect some play per game regression

1484
01:12:59,560 --> 01:13:02,559
Speaker 3: for the Argers seventy plays per game in his starts

1485
01:13:02,680 --> 01:13:05,120
Speaker 3: last year. I don't think he has as good of

1486
01:13:05,120 --> 01:13:09,600
Speaker 3: a floor ceiling combination as Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, or

1487
01:13:09,720 --> 01:13:12,800
Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts, who go after him in most drafts. At

1488
01:13:12,880 --> 01:13:16,200
Speaker 3: running back, it's Saquon Barkley. I simply don't think you

1489
01:13:16,200 --> 01:13:18,840
Speaker 3: should be taking that kind of risk. Early in round

1490
01:13:18,880 --> 01:13:24,240
Speaker 3: one or round two. Saquon had five of his last

1491
01:13:24,240 --> 01:13:27,640
Speaker 3: fifteen games and with thirty or fewer rushing yards, and

1492
01:13:27,680 --> 01:13:30,439
Speaker 3: the O line is ranked dead last in the league

1493
01:13:30,520 --> 01:13:33,640
Speaker 3: heading into the year by Pro Football Focus, so he

1494
01:13:33,640 --> 01:13:37,720
Speaker 3: could have efficiency concerns in addition to the availability concerns

1495
01:13:38,280 --> 01:13:42,519
Speaker 3: as he rehabs from the torn ACL. At wide receiver,

1496
01:13:42,880 --> 01:13:46,120
Speaker 3: my top bust candidate is Michael Thomas. I think there's

1497
01:13:46,120 --> 01:13:48,960
Speaker 3: too much uncertainty as far as how many games he's

1498
01:13:48,960 --> 01:13:51,320
Speaker 3: gonna miss, as far as how he's going to look

1499
01:13:51,520 --> 01:13:55,320
Speaker 3: without Drew Brees at quarterback, how high volume is the

1500
01:13:55,360 --> 01:13:56,320
Speaker 3: Saints offense.

1501
01:13:56,080 --> 01:13:57,479
Speaker 1: Going to be, is he gonna get traded.

1502
01:13:57,720 --> 01:13:59,640
Speaker 3: There's just so many question marks that I think there

1503
01:13:59,640 --> 01:14:02,280
Speaker 3: are guys that you could get a full season worth

1504
01:14:02,360 --> 01:14:07,200
Speaker 3: of production from rather than betting on Michael Thomas and

1505
01:14:07,240 --> 01:14:11,640
Speaker 3: getting two thirds of it maybe. And at tight end,

1506
01:14:12,000 --> 01:14:15,519
Speaker 3: Dallas Goddard is my top bust candidate, very similar to

1507
01:14:15,520 --> 01:14:18,519
Speaker 3: Noah Fan and that he's just going on the high

1508
01:14:18,680 --> 01:14:21,280
Speaker 3: end of the next tier of tight ends after the

1509
01:14:21,320 --> 01:14:23,960
Speaker 3: top six, and I don't think any tight end really

1510
01:14:24,080 --> 01:14:29,080
Speaker 3: is deserving of being taken that high. Goddard, I don't

1511
01:14:29,120 --> 01:14:31,840
Speaker 3: see his production improving all that much.

1512
01:14:31,920 --> 01:14:33,200
Speaker 1: Even if zach Ertz.

1513
01:14:33,000 --> 01:14:35,400
Speaker 3: Gets traded, I think the Eagles just become more of

1514
01:14:35,600 --> 01:14:38,080
Speaker 3: a one tight end team and a lot of those

1515
01:14:38,200 --> 01:14:41,120
Speaker 3: extra routes go to wide receivers. I think Goddard is

1516
01:14:41,200 --> 01:14:44,679
Speaker 3: kind of topped out in that aspect already, So justin

1517
01:14:44,720 --> 01:14:48,559
Speaker 3: Herbert Sakwon Barkley, Michael Thomas, and Dallas Goddard are my

1518
01:14:48,880 --> 01:14:53,280
Speaker 3: top bust for twenty twenty one. Hope you guys enjoyed

1519
01:14:53,479 --> 01:14:57,800
Speaker 3: the podcast. You can find Sean on Twitter at the

1520
01:14:57,920 --> 01:14:59,320
Speaker 3: Underscore Odds Maker.

1521
01:14:59,680 --> 01:15:01,599
Speaker 1: You can buy me on Twitter at Chris Raybond.

1522
01:15:01,600 --> 01:15:04,360
Speaker 3: Be sure to check out actionnetwork dot com for our

1523
01:15:04,400 --> 01:15:09,080
Speaker 3: fantasy football content, roundtables and of course our fantasy tool

1524
01:15:09,120 --> 01:15:12,800
Speaker 3: where you can use Sean and my projections, enter your

1525
01:15:12,800 --> 01:15:16,200
Speaker 3: custom week settings and get your custom cheat sheets and

1526
01:15:16,240 --> 01:15:20,080
Speaker 3: all that good stuff. And thanks as always for listening

1527
01:15:20,120 --> 01:15:23,559
Speaker 3: to us every season. We love you guys, And now

1528
01:15:23,600 --> 01:15:26,599
Speaker 3: that we've got this new feed, we really need your help.

1529
01:15:26,800 --> 01:15:31,280
Speaker 3: Follow rate review the new Fantasy Flex feed. It's the

1530
01:15:31,360 --> 01:15:34,760
Speaker 3: single biggest way to help us out. We'll grab one

1531
01:15:34,880 --> 01:15:37,679
Speaker 3: Apple podcast review every week leading up to Week one,

1532
01:15:38,080 --> 01:15:40,320
Speaker 3: and Sean and I will pick a winner and send

1533
01:15:40,360 --> 01:15:44,559
Speaker 3: you guys some swag, so don't forget to do that.

1534
01:15:44,880 --> 01:15:45,880
Speaker 1: We'll be bringing you.

1535
01:15:45,840 --> 01:15:51,080
Speaker 3: Five episodes per week once the regular season gets underway.

1536
01:15:51,640 --> 01:15:54,080
Speaker 1: Until next time, let's get this money

1537
01:16:00,479 --> 01:16:00,519
Speaker 2: Z.