WEBVTT - 10 Players Projections LOVE in 2025 (Ep. 936) 0:00:05.280 --> 0:00:07.760 What's up, friends, and welcome into Fantasy Pros, the Fantasy 0:00:07.840 --> 0:00:11.320 Baseball Podcast. I'm Chris Welsh. That's Joe Rico, and today 0:00:11.720 --> 0:00:16.600 we're talking about projections. Who love these players or players 0:00:16.600 --> 0:00:19.439 that projections are loving. We're looking at some of the 0:00:19.480 --> 0:00:23.800 bigger projections out there, from ATC to steamer to the bat, 0:00:24.280 --> 0:00:25.840 and we are going to look at some players that 0:00:25.920 --> 0:00:30.400 really pop. We've got ten players that projections love this year, 0:00:30.520 --> 0:00:33.400 Joe Rico. And whether you love projections or not, I 0:00:33.440 --> 0:00:36.560 guess that's a whole nother sticky situation across the board. 0:00:36.760 --> 0:00:39.120 And it is always funny when some of these major 0:00:39.159 --> 0:00:43.080 systems will aggressively disagree, even in like a positive way 0:00:43.120 --> 0:00:44.959 where a guy really pops. But we're going to talk 0:00:44.960 --> 0:00:48.080 about some of these guys today and how much does 0:00:48.240 --> 0:00:51.440 projections weigh into your valuation on players. 0:00:51.960 --> 0:00:54.120 It's become a huge part of the process over the 0:00:54.200 --> 0:00:56.320 last couple of years. I feel like every year that 0:00:56.360 --> 0:00:59.000 goes by, I rely less on my own observations and 0:00:59.040 --> 0:01:01.520 more on the data. You know, as much as I 0:01:01.560 --> 0:01:03.440 watch a ton of games and I go through this 0:01:03.800 --> 0:01:06.759 stuff constantly like you do, like we all do, there's 0:01:06.800 --> 0:01:08.640 only so much you can do. And when you rely 0:01:08.720 --> 0:01:10.919 on the numbers, especially for the rates stats, I find 0:01:11.520 --> 0:01:14.080 you're not going to be better at projecting batting average. 0:01:13.920 --> 0:01:15.720 Or er or whip or things like that. 0:01:15.760 --> 0:01:18.400 Then the systems are you can make adjustments for things 0:01:18.400 --> 0:01:19.880 like playing time if you think a guy is going 0:01:19.920 --> 0:01:22.119 to have a bigger role than expected. But I've come 0:01:22.160 --> 0:01:24.600 to really rely on them, especially for those rates stats 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:25.600 over the last couple of years. 0:01:26.640 --> 0:01:29.640 Yeah, And whether you put one hundred percent valuation into 0:01:29.720 --> 0:01:33.679 projections or I wouldn't say put zero, I definitely think 0:01:33.959 --> 0:01:37.039 a good way to, you know, use projections at the 0:01:37.200 --> 0:01:40.360 minimalist point is as a reference point and go and 0:01:40.600 --> 0:01:42.520 you know, okay, this is where this guy is. Maybe 0:01:42.520 --> 0:01:46.760 it's a confirmation by you know, it's confirming something you're 0:01:46.760 --> 0:01:49.960 already feeling about a specific player. But going through kind 0:01:49.960 --> 0:01:53.680 of seeing some using these as the tool in your 0:01:53.720 --> 0:01:56.200 tool belt is the best approach to it. At worst. 0:01:56.240 --> 0:01:59.120 If you're not beholden to the projections and we're not 0:01:59.160 --> 0:02:01.800 focusing on once one again, we are going to be 0:02:02.240 --> 0:02:04.520 poking through a couple of them, finding some of these 0:02:04.560 --> 0:02:07.360 players that jump out to you before we get to it. Though, 0:02:07.720 --> 0:02:10.800 we've been talking about a giveaway, and we are ready 0:02:11.160 --> 0:02:15.480 to announce the winner of the Billy Wagner autograph Baseball giveaway. 0:02:15.880 --> 0:02:19.840 That winner is Superman Chee Chee. That's right, just like 0:02:19.919 --> 0:02:22.720 you guys all thought, Superman Chee Chee. 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All you've got 0:02:56.880 --> 0:02:59.799 to do, just like Superman Chee Chee did, to enter, 0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:02.520 is make sure you're subscribe to the Fantasy Pros YouTube 0:03:02.600 --> 0:03:05.200 channel right now. Drop a comment below on this video, 0:03:05.680 --> 0:03:09.880 maybe a player in projections that you love, and that's it. 0:03:09.960 --> 0:03:11.960 We'll be announcing a lucky winner right here on the channel. 0:03:12.000 --> 0:03:14.400 So make sure you turn on notifications so you know 0:03:14.440 --> 0:03:16.720 when the next videos are up and you can claim 0:03:16.880 --> 0:03:20.239 your prize. Let's get to it. Let's talk about these 0:03:20.280 --> 0:03:24.040 players that projections love. Number one is a big name 0:03:24.080 --> 0:03:25.960 and has gotten a lot of push on this channel, 0:03:26.000 --> 0:03:31.560 mister Joe Rico. But ATC really pops this player. He 0:03:31.720 --> 0:03:34.600 is Garrett Crochet. So we're gonna be focusing on ATC 0:03:34.760 --> 0:03:38.400 projections for this one A three two one era one 0:03:38.480 --> 0:03:40.920 hundred and fifty two innings. That's a key number there, 0:03:41.360 --> 0:03:45.480 with the second highest K per nine among starting pitchers. Now, 0:03:46.280 --> 0:03:49.360 why this projection really pops, You know, because you can 0:03:49.400 --> 0:03:51.120 go and you can look at like war and whatever 0:03:51.160 --> 0:03:55.440 you want, but he has the second highest K per 0:03:55.520 --> 0:03:59.920 nine among all starting pitchers. The next level of why 0:04:00.080 --> 0:04:02.320 this is so important, why the projections love this show, 0:04:03.080 --> 0:04:06.880 is that he's really not projected at any more innings. 0:04:06.960 --> 0:04:08.600 We saw Garret Croche, I think it was one hundred 0:04:08.600 --> 0:04:11.240 and forty six last year. They're only projecting him at 0:04:11.320 --> 0:04:15.920 one hundred and fifty two. I said, So this projection 0:04:16.040 --> 0:04:20.200 pops even more if he beats that projected inning marker 0:04:20.760 --> 0:04:24.360 he I talked with Ariol about. This would become essentially 0:04:24.680 --> 0:04:27.640 like the number two or number three overall starting pitcher 0:04:27.760 --> 0:04:30.320 in fantasy, because he would lead the league in projected 0:04:30.360 --> 0:04:32.760 strikeouts if he had one hundred and seventy innings, he 0:04:32.800 --> 0:04:36.839 would be over everybody. Right now, Garrett Crochet really really 0:04:36.880 --> 0:04:39.560 pops in ATC. The only thing that doesn't pop here 0:04:39.920 --> 0:04:42.600 are the projected innings, and that might be playing it 0:04:42.680 --> 0:04:45.200 too low. So what do you think about Garrett Crochet 0:04:45.279 --> 0:04:46.760 and these ATC projections? 0:04:47.000 --> 0:04:48.720 Yeah, so the first thing that people should know about 0:04:48.720 --> 0:04:51.360 projections as a whole is that they tend to aim 0:04:51.400 --> 0:04:55.239 for a fiftieth percentile outcome. There is one projection system 0:04:55.200 --> 0:04:57.200 we're going to talk about later today that's a little 0:04:57.240 --> 0:04:59.720 bit more optimistic, but generally speaking, their aiming for the 0:04:59.760 --> 0:05:02.719 middle the road. So I understand why they're a little 0:05:02.760 --> 0:05:06.800 more cautious on Crochet's innings. That being said, I think 0:05:06.839 --> 0:05:09.240 that when you're looking at like Steamers one seventy, that's 0:05:09.279 --> 0:05:11.560 probably where he's probably going to get to. The White 0:05:11.560 --> 0:05:13.840 Sox did everything they could to keep him healthy last year, 0:05:14.120 --> 0:05:15.880 and I think that you can project a twenty to 0:05:15.920 --> 0:05:18.760 twenty five inning jump pretty easily if you're looking at 0:05:18.760 --> 0:05:22.479 player raiders and if you put in ATC's projections, like 0:05:22.520 --> 0:05:25.480 into the Fangrass player Raider. Then Crochet comes out as 0:05:25.520 --> 0:05:27.960 the number six starting pitcher, and that's in one hundred 0:05:28.000 --> 0:05:29.520 and fifty two innings. If you jack that up by 0:05:29.520 --> 0:05:32.000 twenty innings, I imagine he would be somewhere in the 0:05:32.200 --> 0:05:34.920 SP three or four range. I doubt he would reach 0:05:35.480 --> 0:05:37.520 Scoble and Schemes on a projection standpoint. 0:05:37.520 --> 0:05:39.680 But we did a ton of pitching. 0:05:39.400 --> 0:05:42.159 Shows last week and the last one was myself with 0:05:42.279 --> 0:05:45.280 Nick Pollock and Inosaurus, and Nick has Garrett Crochet's number 0:05:45.320 --> 0:05:48.440 two starting pitcher ahead of Paul Skin, so there's a 0:05:48.440 --> 0:05:50.320 lot of love for him. I have him at number four, Welsh. 0:05:50.360 --> 0:05:52.240 I think you got him top five, and there's a 0:05:52.240 --> 0:05:55.560 good reason for it. He's absolutely brilliant, especially coming from 0:05:55.560 --> 0:05:58.320 the left side with his size. I think Crochet could 0:05:58.320 --> 0:05:59.880 be the number one starting pitcher and I wouldn't be 0:05:59.920 --> 0:06:00.800 so prize by it at all. 0:06:01.880 --> 0:06:04.599 Yeah, I've got him at number four in my SPS, 0:06:04.640 --> 0:06:06.839 and obviously you and I are always battling to get 0:06:06.920 --> 0:06:08.880 him in MOX. We've been done one in a little bit. 0:06:08.920 --> 0:06:12.120 But yeah, I think the You're right, Like, these are 0:06:12.240 --> 0:06:14.760 median averages, so they're usually not on the high end. 0:06:15.200 --> 0:06:18.159 And to see what and how Crochet really pops on 0:06:18.240 --> 0:06:21.200 ATC Knowing that you could just bump up the innings 0:06:21.200 --> 0:06:22.880 a little bit, he becomes one of the most valuable 0:06:22.960 --> 0:06:25.640 pitchers in baseball. There's a confirmation to it. You know 0:06:25.720 --> 0:06:29.640 ATC is you know, either been one or two in 0:06:29.720 --> 0:06:33.159 the most accurate projection systems across the board. But also 0:06:33.240 --> 0:06:35.680 last season told you plenty that you know what you 0:06:35.720 --> 0:06:37.800 need to know about Gerrett Croche thirty five percent k 0:06:37.960 --> 0:06:42.400 percentage and expected ERA that was under three the number 0:06:42.440 --> 0:06:45.200 this year. Era estimators can be a little bit tough 0:06:45.240 --> 0:06:49.000 in projections, but you're still given a very, very favorable number. 0:06:49.040 --> 0:06:50.800 So you want to talk about a player that pops 0:06:50.800 --> 0:06:54.160 in projections, it's Garrett Crochet, and he's even a little 0:06:54.240 --> 0:06:57.680 hidden just by one number that's on there. Let's move 0:06:57.720 --> 0:06:59.279 to number two. We're going to go to a hitter 0:06:59.320 --> 0:07:01.960 and now we're going to over to the projection system 0:07:02.000 --> 0:07:05.320 that won number one most accurate according to Fantasy Pros 0:07:05.400 --> 0:07:08.720 in twenty twenty four, the bat X. We're going to 0:07:08.800 --> 0:07:12.600 go to oneal cruise, oneal cruise. Why are we talking 0:07:12.640 --> 0:07:15.320 about him? He's you know, mid fifties and whatnot. Well, 0:07:15.320 --> 0:07:18.520 most of the systems have him in this like low 0:07:18.680 --> 0:07:22.120 twenty ish range, you know, like twenty two homers, twenty 0:07:22.160 --> 0:07:25.280 one stolen bases, something in there. But the bat X 0:07:25.840 --> 0:07:30.600 is very aggressive, so much so it's increases across the board, 0:07:30.760 --> 0:07:33.120 and you don't necessarily see that, especially from a guy 0:07:33.160 --> 0:07:36.280 that had a you know, a pretty like solid season. 0:07:36.360 --> 0:07:39.520 I think that defied some expectations, but we're talking increases 0:07:39.520 --> 0:07:44.200 across the board. Twenty eight homer projection, twenty three stolen 0:07:44.200 --> 0:07:49.160 base projection, eighty six run, eighty four rbi. These are 0:07:49.240 --> 0:07:54.120 all like well over last year numbers, and he's towing 0:07:54.400 --> 0:07:56.520 the line. If you were to meet those bat X 0:07:56.560 --> 0:07:59.600 projections to being close to a thirty twenty five guy, 0:07:59.600 --> 0:08:02.160 that you could seeing if that offense is even a 0:08:02.160 --> 0:08:04.920 little bit more positive, maybe he's pushing one hundred runs, 0:08:05.040 --> 0:08:06.800 hundred rbi. I mean, those are the type of things 0:08:06.800 --> 0:08:09.360 that make you a first round talent. That X is 0:08:09.920 --> 0:08:12.960 very very positive on O'Neal Cruz. What do you think there, 0:08:13.040 --> 0:08:13.840 Joe Rico. 0:08:14.280 --> 0:08:17.000 So the bad X is higher on him because it 0:08:17.040 --> 0:08:21.000 incorporates the stat cast data, which is just ridiculous for 0:08:21.040 --> 0:08:24.080 O'Neil Cruz, like he had a fifteen percent barrel rate, 0:08:24.160 --> 0:08:27.600 nearly sixteen fifty five percent hard hit rate, and I 0:08:27.600 --> 0:08:30.760 don't think those get captured in the majority of the systems, 0:08:30.800 --> 0:08:32.640 Like even in Just the Bat, I don't think it 0:08:32.640 --> 0:08:35.160 gets captured. But the bad X Derek does incorporate the 0:08:35.160 --> 0:08:39.480 stat cast data. I understand it, and I understand wanting 0:08:39.520 --> 0:08:43.080 to be optimistic about O'Neil Cruz, but I'm not sure 0:08:43.120 --> 0:08:46.720 that the power is necessarily going to translate to in 0:08:46.880 --> 0:08:50.320 game thirty home run potential. The launch angle is not 0:08:50.440 --> 0:08:53.440 necessarily ideal. I I'd like it if he raised the 0:08:53.440 --> 0:08:56.520 ball a little bit more. And there's also the strikeouts, 0:08:56.760 --> 0:08:59.400 like fifteen percent swinging strike rate, he had a twenty 0:08:59.440 --> 0:09:02.320 nine percent s wake out rate. And there's also the 0:09:02.360 --> 0:09:05.520 lineup around him, which is not that great. Spencer Horwitz 0:09:05.559 --> 0:09:07.280 got hurt. So I think I am more of a 0:09:07.320 --> 0:09:10.640 pessimist on O'Neil Cruz. I understand the reasons for optimism, 0:09:11.280 --> 0:09:14.280 but I think the projections being even what they are, 0:09:14.320 --> 0:09:16.199 he's probably somebody that I'm staying away from a lot 0:09:16.200 --> 0:09:16.560 of the time. 0:09:18.000 --> 0:09:20.360 O'Neill is always a guy that I'm trying to invest in. 0:09:20.400 --> 0:09:23.400 The cost gets a little bit higher than what you want, 0:09:23.440 --> 0:09:25.880 but I'm very much for this. I actually thought we 0:09:25.880 --> 0:09:28.640 were going to see a bigger power out boost last 0:09:28.679 --> 0:09:31.600 year over the speed, and he fell short of I 0:09:31.600 --> 0:09:33.960 think I had even put like a futures bet on 0:09:34.040 --> 0:09:36.040 twenty four point five I think was on the home 0:09:36.080 --> 0:09:38.559 run total, and we didn't quite get there. So you're 0:09:38.559 --> 0:09:40.880 not wrong about the launch angle. I just I do 0:09:40.960 --> 0:09:43.520 think that is something that is going to be rectifiable. 0:09:44.120 --> 0:09:47.320 One of the reasons that you know he may have 0:09:47.600 --> 0:09:50.440 that kind of lower approach could be that he was 0:09:50.440 --> 0:09:52.360 trying to make more contact. That's the big thing that 0:09:52.400 --> 0:09:54.000 nobody thought. I don't know Cruise was going to be 0:09:54.000 --> 0:09:56.640 able to do. He had two fifty nine last season 0:09:56.920 --> 0:10:00.600 with an expected batting average higher. This is why striking 0:10:00.640 --> 0:10:03.439 out thirty percent of the time, So you know something 0:10:03.880 --> 0:10:06.920 will have to give at some point. It's monstrous, monstrous 0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:10.760 contact numbers. I have some optimism that the strikeout numbers 0:10:10.760 --> 0:10:12.920 can come down, the quality of contact can get the 0:10:12.920 --> 0:10:14.920 ball in the air a little bit more. He finished 0:10:14.920 --> 0:10:17.760 the year with a two seventy seven. This is post 0:10:17.800 --> 0:10:21.040 All Star break, a two seventy seven average, really really 0:10:21.080 --> 0:10:23.679 strong push to the second half of the season where 0:10:24.240 --> 0:10:27.400 you also saw the strikeouts dip down, the homers dip 0:10:27.440 --> 0:10:29.200 down a little bit, and he stole more bases, but 0:10:29.240 --> 0:10:32.360 it's some of the biggest contact in the world. I 0:10:32.480 --> 0:10:35.720 love bat X incorporating some of the stat cast data 0:10:35.760 --> 0:10:38.559 in here and projections love him. I love him. I 0:10:38.640 --> 0:10:41.720 think the floor is set you at twenty twenty. You know, 0:10:41.720 --> 0:10:43.520 do you want to pay high prices? But I think 0:10:43.600 --> 0:10:46.920 the ceiling again for a median system, the ceiling is 0:10:47.240 --> 0:10:48.920 putting you in at like almost a twenty five to 0:10:49.000 --> 0:10:52.240 twenty five, maybe a thirty twenty five. But again, these 0:10:52.240 --> 0:10:54.120 are our feelings about it. At the end of the day, 0:10:54.200 --> 0:10:58.160 the projections on the bat X love Oneio Cruz number three. 0:10:58.320 --> 0:11:01.400 Let's go to another starting pitcher. I'm gonna go to Steamer, 0:11:01.720 --> 0:11:05.840 the always optimistic Steamer, Mister Joe Rico. How about Chris Sale. 0:11:06.760 --> 0:11:09.679 Chris Sale obviously at a phenomenon onece IM there's plenty 0:11:09.760 --> 0:11:14.120 to be optimistic about. Rankings have kind of been all 0:11:14.120 --> 0:11:15.920 over the board on him and like where they feel 0:11:15.960 --> 0:11:19.040 putting him in different tiers. But Steamer is very, very 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:22.440 highly aggressive on him, actually has him as the only 0:11:22.640 --> 0:11:26.960 fourteen win pitcher among starting pitchers. He's only one a 0:11:27.040 --> 0:11:30.880 three point zero seven ERA and an over eleven K 0:11:30.960 --> 0:11:34.480 per nine in again a probably highly aggressive one hundred 0:11:34.480 --> 0:11:39.000 and eighty six innings. To mind you his stats, his 0:11:39.080 --> 0:11:43.559 stat line projection on Steamer, it's like just points off 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:46.760 of what you're looking at Schooble in schemes. So Steamer 0:11:46.840 --> 0:11:49.600 is telling you that Chris Sale is a huge value 0:11:49.640 --> 0:11:53.439 at what round three, round four, something like that. Projections 0:11:53.480 --> 0:11:56.480 absolutely love Chris Sale, but do you do the Arico 0:11:56.559 --> 0:11:57.560 projections love him. 0:11:58.120 --> 0:11:58.960 I really like him. 0:11:59.160 --> 0:12:01.400 I have him at number nine, but I'd think those 0:12:01.400 --> 0:12:04.199 innings projections are a little bit lofty one hundred and 0:12:04.280 --> 0:12:07.679 eighty seven, one hundred and eighty two from another system, 0:12:08.240 --> 0:12:10.280 I think that he should probably be more in that 0:12:10.559 --> 0:12:14.760 zips to ATC one one fifty four kind of territory. 0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:16.760 I think Eno said he had him projected for one 0:12:16.880 --> 0:12:20.240 fifty six. We can't just ignore all of the injuries 0:12:20.240 --> 0:12:22.960 that have happened throughout the course of his career. Last 0:12:23.040 --> 0:12:26.400 year was a healthy season, but he didn't finish the 0:12:26.440 --> 0:12:27.040 season healthy. 0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:28.640 If you guys remember, he had to miss that playoff 0:12:28.640 --> 0:12:29.360 game against the Mets. 0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:31.559 I don't think that that's a huge concern but when 0:12:31.559 --> 0:12:33.680 you're getting to his age and now is he thirty 0:12:33.679 --> 0:12:35.480 seven yet? No, he's gonna oh sorry, no, he's me 0:12:35.559 --> 0:12:38.720 thirty six in actually later this month. 0:12:39.120 --> 0:12:43.160 So at that stage of your career, you never really know. 0:12:43.120 --> 0:12:45.760 What's going to happen to a guy, especially somebody who 0:12:45.800 --> 0:12:48.080 has the series of injuries that Sale has had. That 0:12:48.200 --> 0:12:50.440 being said, I think a lot of them were more 0:12:50.440 --> 0:12:52.120 on the fluky side. It's not like he had two 0:12:52.160 --> 0:12:54.320 Tommy John's or something like that. So I think he 0:12:54.360 --> 0:12:56.600 can still go out there and be effective. But I 0:12:56.600 --> 0:12:58.319 think if you're drafting him, you might want to bank 0:12:58.360 --> 0:12:59.679 in that there's probably going to be some kind of 0:12:59.720 --> 0:13:02.120 eye stint at some point. And I don't think he's 0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:03.840 going to push two hundred innings. I think that he's 0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:07.360 probably somewhere in that one fifty range, and that should 0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:09.840 still be very valuable, especially on a on a team 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:11.439 like the Braves that should be in line for a 0:13:11.440 --> 0:13:12.880 big bounce back as a Hoole this year. 0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:15.720 Yeah, And I think one of the things it's funny, 0:13:15.720 --> 0:13:19.319 because you know, we talked about Crochet in ATC kind 0:13:19.360 --> 0:13:25.000 of limiting and mitigating down the value on based on 0:13:25.040 --> 0:13:28.240 the innings. Chris sales value is pushed up definitely by 0:13:28.280 --> 0:13:31.520 this high projected innings. To be fair, this is only 0:13:31.559 --> 0:13:33.200 a little bit more than he had last year because 0:13:33.240 --> 0:13:35.600 he did have one hundred and seventy seven innings. Pitch 0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:38.280 won the Cy young. This team is going to need him. 0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:40.880 They're highly competitive, they're going to be playing down the stretch. 0:13:40.920 --> 0:13:42.880 But it's not to say that, you know, due to 0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:45.000 age and due to some injury history, that that is 0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:48.240 still being optimistic. I'd probably agree. I think you can 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:51.040 maybe even split the middle between these one forty one 0:13:51.160 --> 0:13:53.320 fifties in the one to seventy, call it one sixty, 0:13:53.400 --> 0:13:56.679 and he's still a pretty good value. But I think 0:13:57.120 --> 0:13:59.440 you know, wherever you are on Steamer, it's very, very 0:13:59.520 --> 0:14:02.880 highly agree. Strikeout numbers as well, would you like to 0:14:02.920 --> 0:14:05.400 see and he had the highest strikeout rate over the 0:14:05.480 --> 0:14:08.319 last four years this past season a thirty two percent 0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:12.240 walk rate was low under three era, so again the 0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:14.360 era may be a bit high, and there's a lot 0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:18.439 of support offensively on this Chris Sale is loved by 0:14:18.480 --> 0:14:22.760 the Steamer projections, whether you love him or not. Number 0:14:22.800 --> 0:14:24.640 four on this list, we are going to go back 0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:27.400 to ATC. It's going to be a lower name. It 0:14:27.560 --> 0:14:31.640 tried to vary the discussion about who projections love is 0:14:31.720 --> 0:14:35.040 as an open can there Joe, because it's like, you know, 0:14:35.120 --> 0:14:36.720 I could go and look and be like, oh man, 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:39.000 they love this. You know, this guy who's getting fifteen 0:14:39.040 --> 0:14:41.760 numbers and fifteen stolen bases projections love this guy, and 0:14:42.120 --> 0:14:44.480 people might look and be like, that's not really love. Well, 0:14:44.800 --> 0:14:49.520 this is love ATC loves some Xavier Edwards. Xavier Edwards 0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:52.840 with the Marlins projected with a two point eighty one 0:14:52.920 --> 0:14:57.280 batting average, you'll love it. There's one category, thirty six 0:14:57.320 --> 0:15:00.480 stolen bases. That's a lot of stolen bases. I believe 0:15:00.480 --> 0:15:02.440 that was in the top ten or maybe even the 0:15:02.480 --> 0:15:06.040 top five of projected stolen bases and a sub fifteen 0:15:06.120 --> 0:15:09.960 percent k percentage. Seventy runs I'll throw out there as well, 0:15:10.080 --> 0:15:13.120 is nothing to you know, nothing to yell about or 0:15:13.120 --> 0:15:15.040 anything like that. Like it's still good. It's not great, 0:15:15.080 --> 0:15:18.520 it's not horrible, but seventy runs pretty good. That for 0:15:18.600 --> 0:15:22.080 the most part is a two and a half category player. 0:15:22.600 --> 0:15:25.400 But Xavier Edwards has been moving up I think a 0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:28.560 lot of boards in general. He definitely speaks to the 0:15:28.680 --> 0:15:31.680 late stolen base thing that you can do. It's high 0:15:31.680 --> 0:15:33.320 batting average. He's going to hit at the top of 0:15:33.320 --> 0:15:35.240 the lineup. And also, god knows what the Marlins are 0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:37.480 going to do with moving players out there. What do 0:15:37.520 --> 0:15:41.160 you think does ATC love Xavier Edwards enough or is 0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:42.040 it a little too much? 0:15:43.120 --> 0:15:46.880 I think it's probably about right. I think the numbers 0:15:46.880 --> 0:15:49.920 are about right, but I feel like the draft room 0:15:50.000 --> 0:15:51.760 price is not at this point, Like there was a 0:15:51.800 --> 0:15:54.480 draft done. The NFBC lets you filter by like specific 0:15:54.520 --> 0:15:56.160 dates and you can look at specific drafts. He went 0:15:56.200 --> 0:15:59.520 fifty fifth overall in a draft on March second. I 0:15:59.520 --> 0:16:02.440 don't think that that's the regular but there's also plenty 0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:04.480 of dots here inside of the top one hundred picks. 0:16:05.120 --> 0:16:09.200 And I honestly don't really understand the hype to that degree. Like, yes, 0:16:09.200 --> 0:16:11.120 he's a bit of a boost in the batting average department, 0:16:11.120 --> 0:16:12.720 and the stolen bases are going to be great, but 0:16:13.320 --> 0:16:16.600 the power stats really do concern me. When you're getting 0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:19.880 a guy who maybe could hit one or two home runs, 0:16:19.880 --> 0:16:22.480 he's projected from the various systems for anywhere from two 0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:25.480 to about five or six. You could end up with 0:16:25.800 --> 0:16:29.360 a Louis a Rise type player there, albeit with more speed. 0:16:29.840 --> 0:16:32.120 But if you're factoring in the Marlins lineup in there 0:16:32.160 --> 0:16:34.080 as well, so you have to kind of just essentially 0:16:34.280 --> 0:16:37.240 figure you're getting nothing in the counting stats. He's projected 0:16:37.280 --> 0:16:42.120 for like forty RBI and sixty to seventy runs. I 0:16:42.200 --> 0:16:44.720 understand taking him if you are in a build where 0:16:45.280 --> 0:16:48.520 you've taken Kyle Schwarber early, you've taken Petalonzo early, you 0:16:48.560 --> 0:16:50.240 want to try and build up some of that batting 0:16:50.240 --> 0:16:53.400 average and stolen base depth back. But I feel like 0:16:53.520 --> 0:16:55.200 he is somebody. If I'm taking him, I feel like 0:16:55.240 --> 0:16:57.120 I've kind of messed up earlier in the draft, the 0:16:57.120 --> 0:16:59.840 same way with Luis a Rise, and to a lesser extent, 0:17:00.000 --> 0:17:02.200 at Jacob Wilson, like somebody that's just such a specific 0:17:02.200 --> 0:17:05.040 category target. Wilson's going late enough that it doesn't really matter. 0:17:05.080 --> 0:17:07.639 But if Edwards keeps pushing and he's a top one 0:17:07.680 --> 0:17:11.240 hundred ADP, I think that that's crazy town for me. 0:17:12.320 --> 0:17:14.280 Well, I think part of it is because of the 0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:16.879 love on the projection side, And I talked with Ariol 0:17:16.880 --> 0:17:19.800 about Xavier Edwards too. Thinks he's a smashing deal. I 0:17:19.840 --> 0:17:22.800 will say that, like I think Batting average is something 0:17:22.920 --> 0:17:25.040 that you know, there was a time where we were 0:17:25.080 --> 0:17:27.080 all kind of anti batting. You can get rid of that, 0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:29.359 and then now it's something that I'm chasing a little bit. 0:17:29.400 --> 0:17:33.280 I mean, batting average is like clearly going as Homer's 0:17:33.280 --> 0:17:36.040 equate to more run in RBI, batting average is going 0:17:36.080 --> 0:17:41.280 to equate to better RBI run stolen based situations in general, 0:17:41.359 --> 0:17:43.639 that it's just not something that I want to completely 0:17:44.280 --> 0:17:46.480 throw to the side. Stolen bases is not something we 0:17:46.520 --> 0:17:49.560 need to chase as much anymore, but it still has 0:17:49.600 --> 0:17:51.639 its value, especially when you can get it late to 0:17:51.720 --> 0:17:54.800 that degree. And I will tell you runs runs is 0:17:54.840 --> 0:17:58.080 another category that I kind of find myself falling behind 0:17:58.119 --> 0:18:01.080 on that him covering that does does make him a 0:18:01.160 --> 0:18:04.320 little bit more I think of a personal target. But 0:18:04.400 --> 0:18:07.359 to your point, he shows out in these systems, he's 0:18:07.400 --> 0:18:09.840 moving up even more for the class of people that 0:18:09.880 --> 0:18:12.080 are like, I'm not gonna worry about stolen bases, and 0:18:12.080 --> 0:18:14.359 then post one hundred, now I'm gonna worry about it. 0:18:14.400 --> 0:18:16.600 And why don't I get the guy that I'm gonna 0:18:16.600 --> 0:18:19.320 tell you this, thirty six stolen bases looks aggressive, but 0:18:19.400 --> 0:18:22.560 just as a reminder, the guy still thirty one bases 0:18:22.760 --> 0:18:25.760 in two hundred and sixty five at bats last season, 0:18:25.840 --> 0:18:29.000 so it's not unheard of to think that he could 0:18:29.000 --> 0:18:31.760 go fifty. This is what Xavier Edwards does, and he 0:18:31.800 --> 0:18:35.480 has a really good underlying hit tool. It's funny he 0:18:35.560 --> 0:18:37.640 was a Padre. I was at his pro debut out 0:18:37.640 --> 0:18:40.760 here in Peoria, and it's the same thing always. He 0:18:40.800 --> 0:18:43.000 does not strike out. He puts the bat on the ball. 0:18:43.040 --> 0:18:46.680 He has like a projected sub fifteen percent k percentage. 0:18:46.760 --> 0:18:48.919 He's going to get on base because he walks, so 0:18:48.960 --> 0:18:52.040 it's gonna give him more opportunities to steal. But then 0:18:52.119 --> 0:18:54.280 the valuation thing that you're bringing up, Joe is the 0:18:54.280 --> 0:18:57.159 bigger question. Is he worth inside the top one hundred? 0:18:57.320 --> 0:18:59.840 Probably not. He's a two and a half category at 0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:02.760 best three category player and a little bit of an 0:19:02.800 --> 0:19:04.879 albut or a big albatross as far as Homer's an 0:19:04.920 --> 0:19:08.520 RBI go. But the projections love him and that's why 0:19:08.560 --> 0:19:09.840 he is moving on up. 0:19:09.840 --> 0:19:11.720 Like he might be a slightly better version of Bryce 0:19:11.800 --> 0:19:13.600 ter Rang but it's kind of the same deal. 0:19:13.760 --> 0:19:15.560 You're getting a ton of speed, you're getting a. 0:19:15.560 --> 0:19:17.639 Better batting average with Edwards, but a worse lineup, So 0:19:17.720 --> 0:19:19.480 that's kind of the same type of bil I think 0:19:19.520 --> 0:19:22.560 those like a ria Is to Rang Edwards. 0:19:22.560 --> 0:19:24.600 I think they're all kind of cut from the same cloth. 0:19:25.880 --> 0:19:28.359 Yeah, I don't disagree with that. And really, if like 0:19:28.400 --> 0:19:31.840 someone wanted to push Edwards up aggressively, getting a Bryce 0:19:31.880 --> 0:19:34.320