Speaker 1: What's up, friends, and welcome into Fantasy Pros, the Fantasy
Speaker 1: Baseball Podcast. I'm Chris Welsh. That's Joe Rico, and today
Speaker 1: we're talking about projections. Who love these players or players
Speaker 1: that projections are loving. We're looking at some of the
Speaker 1: bigger projections out there, from ATC to steamer to the bat,
Speaker 1: and we are going to look at some players that
Speaker 1: really pop. We've got ten players that projections love this year,
Speaker 1: Joe Rico. And whether you love projections or not, I
Speaker 1: guess that's a whole nother sticky situation across the board.
Speaker 1: And it is always funny when some of these major
Speaker 1: systems will aggressively disagree, even in like a positive way
Speaker 1: where a guy really pops. But we're going to talk
Speaker 1: about some of these guys today and how much does
Speaker 1: projections weigh into your valuation on players.
Speaker 2: It's become a huge part of the process over the
Speaker 2: last couple of years. I feel like every year that
Speaker 2: goes by, I rely less on my own observations and
Speaker 2: more on the data. You know, as much as I
Speaker 2: watch a ton of games and I go through this
Speaker 2: stuff constantly like you do, like we all do, there's
Speaker 2: only so much you can do. And when you rely
Speaker 2: on the numbers, especially for the rates stats, I find
Speaker 2: you're not going to be better at projecting batting average.
Speaker 3: Or er or whip or things like that.
Speaker 2: Then the systems are you can make adjustments for things
Speaker 2: like playing time if you think a guy is going
Speaker 2: to have a bigger role than expected. But I've come
Speaker 2: to really rely on them, especially for those rates stats
Speaker 2: over the last couple of years.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And whether you put one hundred percent valuation into
Speaker 1: projections or I wouldn't say put zero, I definitely think
Speaker 1: a good way to, you know, use projections at the
Speaker 1: minimalist point is as a reference point and go and
Speaker 1: you know, okay, this is where this guy is. Maybe
Speaker 1: it's a confirmation by you know, it's confirming something you're
Speaker 1: already feeling about a specific player. But going through kind
Speaker 1: of seeing some using these as the tool in your
Speaker 1: tool belt is the best approach to it. At worst.
Speaker 1: If you're not beholden to the projections and we're not
Speaker 1: focusing on once one again, we are going to be
Speaker 1: poking through a couple of them, finding some of these
Speaker 1: players that jump out to you before we get to it. Though,
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Speaker 1: channel right now. Drop a comment below on this video,
Speaker 1: maybe a player in projections that you love, and that's it.
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Speaker 1: So make sure you turn on notifications so you know
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Speaker 1: your prize. Let's get to it. Let's talk about these
Speaker 1: players that projections love. Number one is a big name
Speaker 1: and has gotten a lot of push on this channel,
Speaker 1: mister Joe Rico. But ATC really pops this player. He
Speaker 1: is Garrett Crochet. So we're gonna be focusing on ATC
Speaker 1: projections for this one A three two one era one
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty two innings. That's a key number there,
Speaker 1: with the second highest K per nine among starting pitchers. Now,
Speaker 1: why this projection really pops, You know, because you can
Speaker 1: go and you can look at like war and whatever
Speaker 1: you want, but he has the second highest K per
Speaker 1: nine among all starting pitchers. The next level of why
Speaker 1: this is so important, why the projections love this show,
Speaker 1: is that he's really not projected at any more innings.
Speaker 1: We saw Garret Croche, I think it was one hundred
Speaker 1: and forty six last year. They're only projecting him at
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty two. I said, So this projection
Speaker 1: pops even more if he beats that projected inning marker
Speaker 1: he I talked with Ariol about. This would become essentially
Speaker 1: like the number two or number three overall starting pitcher
Speaker 1: in fantasy, because he would lead the league in projected
Speaker 1: strikeouts if he had one hundred and seventy innings, he
Speaker 1: would be over everybody. Right now, Garrett Crochet really really
Speaker 1: pops in ATC. The only thing that doesn't pop here
Speaker 1: are the projected innings, and that might be playing it
Speaker 1: too low. So what do you think about Garrett Crochet
Speaker 1: and these ATC projections?
Speaker 2: Yeah, so the first thing that people should know about
Speaker 2: projections as a whole is that they tend to aim
Speaker 2: for a fiftieth percentile outcome. There is one projection system
Speaker 2: we're going to talk about later today that's a little
Speaker 2: bit more optimistic, but generally speaking, their aiming for the
Speaker 2: middle the road. So I understand why they're a little
Speaker 2: more cautious on Crochet's innings. That being said, I think
Speaker 2: that when you're looking at like Steamers one seventy, that's
Speaker 2: probably where he's probably going to get to. The White
Speaker 2: Sox did everything they could to keep him healthy last year,
Speaker 2: and I think that you can project a twenty to
Speaker 2: twenty five inning jump pretty easily if you're looking at
Speaker 2: player raiders and if you put in ATC's projections, like
Speaker 2: into the Fangrass player Raider. Then Crochet comes out as
Speaker 2: the number six starting pitcher, and that's in one hundred
Speaker 2: and fifty two innings. If you jack that up by
Speaker 2: twenty innings, I imagine he would be somewhere in the
Speaker 2: SP three or four range. I doubt he would reach
Speaker 2: Scoble and Schemes on a projection standpoint.
Speaker 3: But we did a ton of pitching.
Speaker 2: Shows last week and the last one was myself with
Speaker 2: Nick Pollock and Inosaurus, and Nick has Garrett Crochet's number
Speaker 2: two starting pitcher ahead of Paul Skin, so there's a
Speaker 2: lot of love for him. I have him at number four, Welsh.
Speaker 2: I think you got him top five, and there's a
Speaker 2: good reason for it. He's absolutely brilliant, especially coming from
Speaker 2: the left side with his size. I think Crochet could
Speaker 2: be the number one starting pitcher and I wouldn't be
Speaker 2: so prize by it at all.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've got him at number four in my SPS,
Speaker 1: and obviously you and I are always battling to get
Speaker 1: him in MOX. We've been done one in a little bit.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think the You're right, Like, these are
Speaker 1: median averages, so they're usually not on the high end.
Speaker 1: And to see what and how Crochet really pops on
Speaker 1: ATC Knowing that you could just bump up the innings
Speaker 1: a little bit, he becomes one of the most valuable
Speaker 1: pitchers in baseball. There's a confirmation to it. You know
Speaker 1: ATC is you know, either been one or two in
Speaker 1: the most accurate projection systems across the board. But also
Speaker 1: last season told you plenty that you know what you
Speaker 1: need to know about Gerrett Croche thirty five percent k
Speaker 1: percentage and expected ERA that was under three the number
Speaker 1: this year. Era estimators can be a little bit tough
Speaker 1: in projections, but you're still given a very, very favorable number.
Speaker 1: So you want to talk about a player that pops
Speaker 1: in projections, it's Garrett Crochet, and he's even a little
Speaker 1: hidden just by one number that's on there. Let's move
Speaker 1: to number two. We're going to go to a hitter
Speaker 1: and now we're going to over to the projection system
Speaker 1: that won number one most accurate according to Fantasy Pros
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four, the bat X. We're going to
Speaker 1: go to oneal cruise, oneal cruise. Why are we talking
Speaker 1: about him? He's you know, mid fifties and whatnot. Well,
Speaker 1: most of the systems have him in this like low
Speaker 1: twenty ish range, you know, like twenty two homers, twenty
Speaker 1: one stolen bases, something in there. But the bat X
Speaker 1: is very aggressive, so much so it's increases across the board,
Speaker 1: and you don't necessarily see that, especially from a guy
Speaker 1: that had a you know, a pretty like solid season.
Speaker 1: I think that defied some expectations, but we're talking increases
Speaker 1: across the board. Twenty eight homer projection, twenty three stolen
Speaker 1: base projection, eighty six run, eighty four rbi. These are
Speaker 1: all like well over last year numbers, and he's towing
Speaker 1: the line. If you were to meet those bat X
Speaker 1: projections to being close to a thirty twenty five guy,
Speaker 1: that you could seeing if that offense is even a
Speaker 1: little bit more positive, maybe he's pushing one hundred runs,
Speaker 1: hundred rbi. I mean, those are the type of things
Speaker 1: that make you a first round talent. That X is
Speaker 1: very very positive on O'Neal Cruz. What do you think there,
Speaker 1: Joe Rico.
Speaker 2: So the bad X is higher on him because it
Speaker 2: incorporates the stat cast data, which is just ridiculous for
Speaker 2: O'Neil Cruz, like he had a fifteen percent barrel rate,
Speaker 2: nearly sixteen fifty five percent hard hit rate, and I
Speaker 2: don't think those get captured in the majority of the systems,
Speaker 2: Like even in Just the Bat, I don't think it
Speaker 2: gets captured. But the bad X Derek does incorporate the
Speaker 2: stat cast data. I understand it, and I understand wanting
Speaker 2: to be optimistic about O'Neil Cruz, but I'm not sure
Speaker 2: that the power is necessarily going to translate to in
Speaker 2: game thirty home run potential. The launch angle is not
Speaker 2: necessarily ideal. I I'd like it if he raised the
Speaker 2: ball a little bit more. And there's also the strikeouts,
Speaker 2: like fifteen percent swinging strike rate, he had a twenty
Speaker 2: nine percent s wake out rate. And there's also the
Speaker 2: lineup around him, which is not that great. Spencer Horwitz
Speaker 2: got hurt. So I think I am more of a
Speaker 2: pessimist on O'Neil Cruz. I understand the reasons for optimism,
Speaker 2: but I think the projections being even what they are,
Speaker 2: he's probably somebody that I'm staying away from a lot
Speaker 2: of the time.
Speaker 1: O'Neill is always a guy that I'm trying to invest in.
Speaker 1: The cost gets a little bit higher than what you want,
Speaker 1: but I'm very much for this. I actually thought we
Speaker 1: were going to see a bigger power out boost last
Speaker 1: year over the speed, and he fell short of I
Speaker 1: think I had even put like a futures bet on
Speaker 1: twenty four point five I think was on the home
Speaker 1: run total, and we didn't quite get there. So you're
Speaker 1: not wrong about the launch angle. I just I do
Speaker 1: think that is something that is going to be rectifiable.
Speaker 1: One of the reasons that you know he may have
Speaker 1: that kind of lower approach could be that he was
Speaker 1: trying to make more contact. That's the big thing that
Speaker 1: nobody thought. I don't know Cruise was going to be
Speaker 1: able to do. He had two fifty nine last season
Speaker 1: with an expected batting average higher. This is why striking
Speaker 1: out thirty percent of the time, So you know something
Speaker 1: will have to give at some point. It's monstrous, monstrous
Speaker 1: contact numbers. I have some optimism that the strikeout numbers
Speaker 1: can come down, the quality of contact can get the
Speaker 1: ball in the air a little bit more. He finished
Speaker 1: the year with a two seventy seven. This is post
Speaker 1: All Star break, a two seventy seven average, really really
Speaker 1: strong push to the second half of the season where
Speaker 1: you also saw the strikeouts dip down, the homers dip
Speaker 1: down a little bit, and he stole more bases, but
Speaker 1: it's some of the biggest contact in the world. I
Speaker 1: love bat X incorporating some of the stat cast data
Speaker 1: in here and projections love him. I love him. I
Speaker 1: think the floor is set you at twenty twenty. You know,
Speaker 1: do you want to pay high prices? But I think
Speaker 1: the ceiling again for a median system, the ceiling is
Speaker 1: putting you in at like almost a twenty five to
Speaker 1: twenty five, maybe a thirty twenty five. But again, these
Speaker 1: are our feelings about it. At the end of the day,
Speaker 1: the projections on the bat X love Oneio Cruz number three.
Speaker 1: Let's go to another starting pitcher. I'm gonna go to Steamer,
Speaker 1: the always optimistic Steamer, Mister Joe Rico. How about Chris Sale.
Speaker 1: Chris Sale obviously at a phenomenon onece IM there's plenty
Speaker 1: to be optimistic about. Rankings have kind of been all
Speaker 1: over the board on him and like where they feel
Speaker 1: putting him in different tiers. But Steamer is very, very
Speaker 1: highly aggressive on him, actually has him as the only
Speaker 1: fourteen win pitcher among starting pitchers. He's only one a
Speaker 1: three point zero seven ERA and an over eleven K
Speaker 1: per nine in again a probably highly aggressive one hundred
Speaker 1: and eighty six innings. To mind you his stats, his
Speaker 1: stat line projection on Steamer, it's like just points off
Speaker 1: of what you're looking at Schooble in schemes. So Steamer
Speaker 1: is telling you that Chris Sale is a huge value
Speaker 1: at what round three, round four, something like that. Projections
Speaker 1: absolutely love Chris Sale, but do you do the Arico
Speaker 1: projections love him.
Speaker 3: I really like him.
Speaker 2: I have him at number nine, but I'd think those
Speaker 2: innings projections are a little bit lofty one hundred and
Speaker 2: eighty seven, one hundred and eighty two from another system,
Speaker 2: I think that he should probably be more in that
Speaker 2: zips to ATC one one fifty four kind of territory.
Speaker 2: I think Eno said he had him projected for one
Speaker 2: fifty six. We can't just ignore all of the injuries
Speaker 2: that have happened throughout the course of his career. Last
Speaker 2: year was a healthy season, but he didn't finish the
Speaker 2: season healthy.
Speaker 3: If you guys remember, he had to miss that playoff
Speaker 3: game against the Mets.
Speaker 2: I don't think that that's a huge concern but when
Speaker 2: you're getting to his age and now is he thirty
Speaker 2: seven yet? No, he's gonna oh sorry, no, he's me
Speaker 2: thirty six in actually later this month.
Speaker 3: So at that stage of your career, you never really know.
Speaker 2: What's going to happen to a guy, especially somebody who
Speaker 2: has the series of injuries that Sale has had. That
Speaker 2: being said, I think a lot of them were more
Speaker 2: on the fluky side. It's not like he had two
Speaker 2: Tommy John's or something like that. So I think he
Speaker 2: can still go out there and be effective. But I
Speaker 2: think if you're drafting him, you might want to bank
Speaker 2: in that there's probably going to be some kind of
Speaker 2: eye stint at some point. And I don't think he's
Speaker 2: going to push two hundred innings. I think that he's
Speaker 2: probably somewhere in that one fifty range, and that should
Speaker 2: still be very valuable, especially on a on a team
Speaker 2: like the Braves that should be in line for a
Speaker 2: big bounce back as a Hoole this year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think one of the things it's funny,
Speaker 1: because you know, we talked about Crochet in ATC kind
Speaker 1: of limiting and mitigating down the value on based on
Speaker 1: the innings. Chris sales value is pushed up definitely by
Speaker 1: this high projected innings. To be fair, this is only
Speaker 1: a little bit more than he had last year because
Speaker 1: he did have one hundred and seventy seven innings. Pitch
Speaker 1: won the Cy young. This team is going to need him.
Speaker 1: They're highly competitive, they're going to be playing down the stretch.
Speaker 1: But it's not to say that, you know, due to
Speaker 1: age and due to some injury history, that that is
Speaker 1: still being optimistic. I'd probably agree. I think you can
Speaker 1: maybe even split the middle between these one forty one
Speaker 1: fifties in the one to seventy, call it one sixty,
Speaker 1: and he's still a pretty good value. But I think
Speaker 1: you know, wherever you are on Steamer, it's very, very
Speaker 1: highly agree. Strikeout numbers as well, would you like to
Speaker 1: see and he had the highest strikeout rate over the
Speaker 1: last four years this past season a thirty two percent
Speaker 1: walk rate was low under three era, so again the
Speaker 1: era may be a bit high, and there's a lot
Speaker 1: of support offensively on this Chris Sale is loved by
Speaker 1: the Steamer projections, whether you love him or not. Number
Speaker 1: four on this list, we are going to go back
Speaker 1: to ATC. It's going to be a lower name. It
Speaker 1: tried to vary the discussion about who projections love is
Speaker 1: as an open can there Joe, because it's like, you know,
Speaker 1: I could go and look and be like, oh man,
Speaker 1: they love this. You know, this guy who's getting fifteen
Speaker 1: numbers and fifteen stolen bases projections love this guy, and
Speaker 1: people might look and be like, that's not really love. Well,
Speaker 1: this is love ATC loves some Xavier Edwards. Xavier Edwards
Speaker 1: with the Marlins projected with a two point eighty one
Speaker 1: batting average, you'll love it. There's one category, thirty six
Speaker 1: stolen bases. That's a lot of stolen bases. I believe
Speaker 1: that was in the top ten or maybe even the
Speaker 1: top five of projected stolen bases and a sub fifteen
Speaker 1: percent k percentage. Seventy runs I'll throw out there as well,
Speaker 1: is nothing to you know, nothing to yell about or
Speaker 1: anything like that. Like it's still good. It's not great,
Speaker 1: it's not horrible, but seventy runs pretty good. That for
Speaker 1: the most part is a two and a half category player.
Speaker 1: But Xavier Edwards has been moving up I think a
Speaker 1: lot of boards in general. He definitely speaks to the
Speaker 1: late stolen base thing that you can do. It's high
Speaker 1: batting average. He's going to hit at the top of
Speaker 1: the lineup. And also, god knows what the Marlins are
Speaker 1: going to do with moving players out there. What do
Speaker 1: you think does ATC love Xavier Edwards enough or is
Speaker 1: it a little too much?
Speaker 2: I think it's probably about right. I think the numbers
Speaker 2: are about right, but I feel like the draft room
Speaker 2: price is not at this point, Like there was a
Speaker 2: draft done. The NFBC lets you filter by like specific
Speaker 2: dates and you can look at specific drafts. He went
Speaker 2: fifty fifth overall in a draft on March second. I
Speaker 2: don't think that that's the regular but there's also plenty
Speaker 2: of dots here inside of the top one hundred picks.
Speaker 2: And I honestly don't really understand the hype to that degree. Like, yes,
Speaker 2: he's a bit of a boost in the batting average department,
Speaker 2: and the stolen bases are going to be great, but
Speaker 2: the power stats really do concern me. When you're getting
Speaker 2: a guy who maybe could hit one or two home runs,
Speaker 2: he's projected from the various systems for anywhere from two
Speaker 2: to about five or six. You could end up with
Speaker 2: a Louis a Rise type player there, albeit with more speed.
Speaker 2: But if you're factoring in the Marlins lineup in there
Speaker 2: as well, so you have to kind of just essentially
Speaker 2: figure you're getting nothing in the counting stats. He's projected
Speaker 2: for like forty RBI and sixty to seventy runs. I
Speaker 2: understand taking him if you are in a build where
Speaker 2: you've taken Kyle Schwarber early, you've taken Petalonzo early, you
Speaker 2: want to try and build up some of that batting
Speaker 2: average and stolen base depth back. But I feel like
Speaker 2: he is somebody. If I'm taking him, I feel like
Speaker 2: I've kind of messed up earlier in the draft, the
Speaker 2: same way with Luis a Rise, and to a lesser extent,
Speaker 2: at Jacob Wilson, like somebody that's just such a specific
Speaker 2: category target. Wilson's going late enough that it doesn't really matter.
Speaker 2: But if Edwards keeps pushing and he's a top one
Speaker 2: hundred ADP, I think that that's crazy town for me.
Speaker 1: Well, I think part of it is because of the
Speaker 1: love on the projection side, And I talked with Ariol
Speaker 1: about Xavier Edwards too. Thinks he's a smashing deal. I
Speaker 1: will say that, like I think Batting average is something
Speaker 1: that you know, there was a time where we were
Speaker 1: all kind of anti batting. You can get rid of that,
Speaker 1: and then now it's something that I'm chasing a little bit.
Speaker 1: I mean, batting average is like clearly going as Homer's
Speaker 1: equate to more run in RBI, batting average is going
Speaker 1: to equate to better RBI run stolen based situations in general,
Speaker 1: that it's just not something that I want to completely
Speaker 1: throw to the side. Stolen bases is not something we
Speaker 1: need to chase as much anymore, but it still has
Speaker 1: its value, especially when you can get it late to
Speaker 1: that degree. And I will tell you runs runs is
Speaker 1: another category that I kind of find myself falling behind
Speaker 1: on that him covering that does does make him a
Speaker 1: little bit more I think of a personal target. But
Speaker 1: to your point, he shows out in these systems, he's
Speaker 1: moving up even more for the class of people that
Speaker 1: are like, I'm not gonna worry about stolen bases, and
Speaker 1: then post one hundred, now I'm gonna worry about it.
Speaker 1: And why don't I get the guy that I'm gonna
Speaker 1: tell you this, thirty six stolen bases looks aggressive, but
Speaker 1: just as a reminder, the guy still thirty one bases
Speaker 1: in two hundred and sixty five at bats last season,
Speaker 1: so it's not unheard of to think that he could
Speaker 1: go fifty. This is what Xavier Edwards does, and he
Speaker 1: has a really good underlying hit tool. It's funny he
Speaker 1: was a Padre. I was at his pro debut out
Speaker 1: here in Peoria, and it's the same thing always. He
Speaker 1: does not strike out. He puts the bat on the ball.
Speaker 1: He has like a projected sub fifteen percent k percentage.
Speaker 1: He's going to get on base because he walks, so
Speaker 1: it's gonna give him more opportunities to steal. But then
Speaker 1: the valuation thing that you're bringing up, Joe is the
Speaker 1: bigger question. Is he worth inside the top one hundred?
Speaker 1: Probably not. He's a two and a half category at
Speaker 1: best three category player and a little bit of an
Speaker 1: albut or a big albatross as far as Homer's an
Speaker 1: RBI go. But the projections love him and that's why
Speaker 1: he is moving on up.
Speaker 2: Like he might be a slightly better version of Bryce
Speaker 2: ter Rang but it's kind of the same deal.
Speaker 3: You're getting a ton of speed, you're getting a.
Speaker 2: Better batting average with Edwards, but a worse lineup, So
Speaker 2: that's kind of the same type of bil I think
Speaker 2: those like a ria Is to Rang Edwards.
Speaker 3: I think they're all kind of cut from the same cloth.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't disagree with that. And really, if like
Speaker 1: someone wanted to push Edwards up aggressively, getting a Bryce
Speaker 1: Terrang later might be good, but he didn't pop here
Speaker 1: coming in at number five. We're going to go back
Speaker 1: into the pitching market here, talk about I think a
Speaker 1: very popular pitcher out here, and we're going to look
Speaker 1: at the bat. This is also Derek Cardi system. He's
Speaker 1: got the bat and the bat X bad X obviously
Speaker 1: is more of a hitting one. He doesn't have a
Speaker 1: pitching side to that that is just under the bat.
Speaker 1: And we're going to talk about Philly's starting pitcher, Christopher Sanchez.
Speaker 1: He is being projected with the twelfth most wins, third
Speaker 1: in the league in or twelve wins I'm sorry, third
Speaker 1: in the league and wins. It ended up having him
Speaker 1: to be like ninety, you know, as they project them out,
Speaker 1: it's like couple with fourteen, couple with thirteen, and then
Speaker 1: at twelve, so very aggressive win projection. A three point
Speaker 1: eighty three ra which is very nice and top thirty
Speaker 1: war among all starting pitchers and aggressive aggressive innings. I
Speaker 1: think it's over one hundred and eighty. The big thing
Speaker 1: that pops up when you look at ranks and you
Speaker 1: look at values is Christopher Sanchez is probably and they're
Speaker 1: not the only one. I think ATC has it pretty
Speaker 1: aggressive as far as war as well, except the bat
Speaker 1: is a little bit more in the counting side on
Speaker 1: the ra on the win front, there's not a lot
Speaker 1: of strikeouts that are projected. But he has added a
Speaker 1: cutter or he's adding a cutter in this year that
Speaker 1: a lot field. This could up that strikeout range and
Speaker 1: if that does, it changes the whole scope of it.
Speaker 1: And Chris Sanchez is being drafted. I don't have his
Speaker 1: ADP in front of me. Maybe you have it, Joe,
Speaker 1: but I want to say it's like, it's definitely outside
Speaker 1: the top forty and it might be outside the top fifty.
Speaker 1: But many projects systems we're just specifically picking on the
Speaker 1: bat really love Christopher Sanchez. So what do you think?
Speaker 2: So all pitchers on the NFBC this also includes relievers
Speaker 2: in there, but he's the sixty seventh pitcher off the
Speaker 2: board overall, I can't imagine.
Speaker 1: So that's probably like forty five at SP something like that.
Speaker 1: So outside the top forty.
Speaker 2: Which I think is gold, absolute gold, I'll take him
Speaker 2: every time that he's still sitting there. He's a great
Speaker 2: stabilizer if you've taken some guys who are maybe the
Speaker 2: highest strikeout riskier types earlier in the draft, if you've
Speaker 2: taken a Blake Snell, if you've taken a Dyllan c
Speaker 2: Saidjaob de Gram. I think that Sanchez is a really
Speaker 2: nice pairing who's a really safe innings guy. That era
Speaker 2: should be very safe. The change up and the cutter,
Speaker 2: even with the slider, was really good. But adding a
Speaker 2: cutter to go along with the change up and that slider,
Speaker 2: I think should be really really good for him.
Speaker 3: Innings aren't any kind of concern.
Speaker 2: The only concern with Sanchez is that you're not getting
Speaker 2: a ton of strikeouts. He's probably going to be somewhere
Speaker 2: in the twenty ish percent range. Maybe he can push
Speaker 2: up to twenty two as long as you've taken care
Speaker 2: that though, I think that there are not many better
Speaker 2: options in this range, not just for pitchers but for
Speaker 2: any players going around pick one seventy to one eighty
Speaker 2: than Chris Sanchez.
Speaker 3: He's one of my favorite targets this year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think what's so nice about this is
Speaker 1: projections have him popping. His cost is still pretty low.
Speaker 1: And also you know that when you talk about that
Speaker 1: median side of the projection, I just want to point out, like,
Speaker 1: you know, three eight ERA or whatever, like he's beat
Speaker 1: that two straight years. You know you had a three
Speaker 1: three two ERA this past season. Doesn't walk a lot,
Speaker 1: doesn't strike out a lot. Maybe he's kind of wu ish,
Speaker 1: but he's going after WU and there's some higher strikeout potential.
Speaker 1: So Chris Sanchez pops on many of these systems. Specifically,
Speaker 1: just picked out the bat because of the wins because
Speaker 1: again I think ATC was a little bit lower, but
Speaker 1: he pops on both of those systems. So a late
Speaker 1: target for you guys, especially if you're going to pay
Speaker 1: attention to these projections. We got more coming up, but
Speaker 1: first I want to tell you guys about the Draft Assistant.
Speaker 1: Use the Draft Assistant to make the best decisions during
Speaker 1: your fantasy drafts this season. It connects directly to your
Speaker 1: draft and provides both real time pick suggestions and estimations
Speaker 1: on which players might get taken before your next pick.
Speaker 1: The Draft Assistant fully integrates your customized cheat sheets and
Speaker 1: suggests picks based on your rankings, team build, ADP and
Speaker 1: other factors. Experience a smarter way to draft a Fantasypros
Speaker 1: dot Com slash assistant or on the MLB Draft Wizard app. Again,
Speaker 1: Fantasypros dot Com slash Assistant do it today make drafting
Speaker 1: a little bit easier, and you can also set those up.
Speaker 1: You could have, like you know, a Welshin Arico rank
Speaker 1: build to help you as far as it's going. If
Speaker 1: you want to see what way. I can't imagine what
Speaker 1: our ranks would look like together, but there's probably It'll
Speaker 1: definitely want you to draft Errett Crochet. I'll tell you
Speaker 1: that I don't know about the others. So there's actually
Speaker 1: another guy in this list. We'll talk about that. I
Speaker 1: think you and I both agree on all right, some
Speaker 1: of these names are going to get kind of fun.
Speaker 1: There's some big names any here with some big questions,
Speaker 1: and this one is right there. We are going to
Speaker 1: go to Steamer for number six. Luise Robert. I did
Speaker 1: an episode on In This League with Ario Cohen talking
Speaker 1: about projections and I picked on Luise Robert because he
Speaker 1: pops on their system. He pops on a lot of
Speaker 1: systems coming off of a really bad batting average year,
Speaker 1: but none like Steamer where after that season with the
Speaker 1: White Sox and they're not going to build in a
Speaker 1: presumed trade. He has projected twenty nine homers, twenty seven
Speaker 1: stolen bases, eighty four run and eighty four RBI. Believe
Speaker 1: the average is back into the two forty range. These
Speaker 1: are all boosts off of last year. He did steal
Speaker 1: a bunch of bases. Even in the bad contact that
Speaker 1: Luise Robert made, he still put up like a season
Speaker 1: that was paired with just you know, garbage batting average.
Speaker 1: Most of these systems decently like it because they are
Speaker 1: looking over a couple years, but again, none like Steamer.
Speaker 1: And he's going post seventy five in some instances. I
Speaker 1: think he's outside the top one hundred. There's some big,
Speaker 1: big counting stats. He's kind of the anti like what
Speaker 1: you looked at with Xavier Edwards. You're like, man, he
Speaker 1: covers these three categories that are a little bit tougher,
Speaker 1: but then he's in albatross. But he's got that safety.
Speaker 1: Luis Robert is like, these are monster numbers across the board,
Speaker 1: but the volatility is wild with Luis Robert here. So
Speaker 1: what do you think about Robert and the Steamer projection.
Speaker 2: He's not somebody that I generally like to land on.
Speaker 2: It's not that I'm like super ant.
Speaker 1: You don't like thirty thirty.
Speaker 3: That's the thing.
Speaker 2: If he hits the projection, if you just put him
Speaker 2: into a player raider, he's projected higher. If you're using Steamer,
Speaker 2: he's projected better than Tascar Hernandez, better than Anthony Santander,
Speaker 2: better than Brian, better than Wyatt Langford and James Wood
Speaker 2: and Breton Doyle and a lot of others. But I'm
Speaker 2: not sure how much I really buy it, Like the
Speaker 2: whole three year waiting thing. I know we have to
Speaker 2: do it.
Speaker 3: We have to.
Speaker 2: We can't just look at the most recent sample size
Speaker 2: and ignore everything else. But when you look at the
Speaker 2: situation in Chicago, Luis Robert down the stretch last season
Speaker 2: did not seem like he cared about playing baseball.
Speaker 3: It was atrocious. It was really bad.
Speaker 2: And I've heard that talking point of all like last
Speaker 2: year they were historically bad, Like nothing's changed, if anything,
Speaker 2: they've gotten worse. So is Luis Robert gonna all of
Speaker 2: a sudden be like invigorated to play baseball again for
Speaker 2: the projected fifty two win White Sox. I don't know
Speaker 2: about that. So I think from that standpoint, we have
Speaker 2: to worry a little bit because, like as somebody who
Speaker 2: had him in a couple of leagues last year, he
Speaker 2: was getting dropped like he wasn't even just somebody you benched,
Speaker 2: like he was droppable down the stretch. If he's still
Speaker 2: in the White Sox, then it's gonna be a bit
Speaker 2: hard for me personally to invest the projections. I understand,
Speaker 2: because they're capturing twenty twenty three, and if he played
Speaker 2: a full season last year, you know you're probably looking
Speaker 2: at twenty something homers and thirty something steals. Like the
Speaker 2: raw talent is there, but there's been a lot of
Speaker 2: injuries over the years. He's only surpassed that over one
Speaker 2: hundred game mark one time in twenty twenty three. Last
Speaker 2: year he hit it exactly on, so I guess you
Speaker 2: can count that if you want, but there's a lot
Speaker 2: of risk here from a number of standpoints. He started
Speaker 2: striking out like crazy last year thirty three percent of
Speaker 2: the time. The swinging strike rate was very high as well,
Speaker 2: seventeen and a half percent. There are reasons to be
Speaker 2: concerned here. If I hear that Luis Robert gets traded
Speaker 2: to the Phillies or something, or get traded to.
Speaker 3: The Astros or whoever, or Atlanta.
Speaker 2: Atlanta, Like, I am going to be a lot more
Speaker 2: interested as of right now. He's not somebody that I'm
Speaker 2: that interested in, but I understand it based on the
Speaker 2: projections for sure.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean to point out like prior to last
Speaker 1: year he had hit two sixty four higher the previous
Speaker 1: two seasons. He came off of a thirty eight twenty season.
Speaker 1: There's an argument to be said to be said, especially
Speaker 1: when you do wait over a couple of years, that
Speaker 1: last year might have been more of the outlier. The
Speaker 1: strikeout rate was absurd, but it was rising the previous
Speaker 1: year as well. He kind of bounces around in how
Speaker 1: well he barrels, and I think it does speak to
Speaker 1: maybe a little bit more the mental game and like
Speaker 1: what where was his involvement? Will he check back out?
Speaker 1: I do think last year was a little bit different.
Speaker 1: Spent a lot of time in the rookie ball and
Speaker 1: trying to build back up. But you know he's an
Speaker 1: injury away, which he's proven to have that from maybe
Speaker 1: you know, losing interest again and you know, another twenty
Speaker 1: straight games of losing from losing interest in playing, and
Speaker 1: he'd have to be traded to kind of keep that.
Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, there's some loud
Speaker 1: counting stats that are out there. If the batting average
Speaker 1: comes back to where it's been, I don't think there's
Speaker 1: a question of this being a value. I don't, I
Speaker 1: really don't. And I think there's quite a few guys
Speaker 1: that the next guy we're going to talk about as well.
Speaker 1: You know, games played to their production is always kind
Speaker 1: of the big the big question, Luis Robert. As long
Speaker 1: as the batting average is there, we're going to be okay,
Speaker 1: let's go to the next guy. This guy, this is
Speaker 1: the first time we're looking at the it's the we
Speaker 1: call it oopsie, right, that's how it's spelled. This is
Speaker 1: the oopsie projection. This is a new one that is
Speaker 1: on over on fangraphs. And we are going to talk
Speaker 1: about Mike Trout. Yes, Mike Trout, who is a major
Speaker 1: question to everybody you know, he's off of list for
Speaker 1: some people, he's undraftable. He can't stay healthy this year.
Speaker 1: You know, he's obviously had a lot of time to recoup.
Speaker 1: He's going to be playing right field. We'll see if
Speaker 1: there's even some dh He changed up some of his
Speaker 1: routine in the off season to try to keep that
Speaker 1: back healthy. We'll see, you know, if some butts with
Speaker 1: Mike Trout. But there is no system that is more
Speaker 1: aggressive on Mike Trout this year than the Oopsie projection system.
Speaker 1: And you had kind of mention they're a little bit
Speaker 1: more Pollyanna on it, which I think is okay because
Speaker 1: Mike Trout is going outside the top one hundred. Yet
Speaker 1: Oopsie projects him at a two sixty seven batting average,
Speaker 1: thirty two homers, ten stolen bases, eighty five runs, and
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty games played. And really probably the
Speaker 1: only thing that gets anybody like scoffing is one hundred
Speaker 1: and twenty games, none of those other numbers, because Mike
Speaker 1: Trout he's incredible when he's out there. I mean, the
Speaker 1: batting average sunk a little bit last year, but he
Speaker 1: was off to some crazy home run out But we
Speaker 1: don't know how he'll run, even though Ron Washington loves
Speaker 1: to run, we don't know that with his health, and
Speaker 1: we just don't know how many games are going to
Speaker 1: go out there. But I find it hard to avoid
Speaker 1: Mike Trout outside the top one hundred, not just because
Speaker 1: of this projection system, but I do think that even
Speaker 1: in one hundred games, with Trout's ability, he can still
Speaker 1: kind of overcome that he can be a value at
Speaker 1: one hundred, even if he plays on the low end.
Speaker 1: But blah, blah blah, what do you think? I mean,
Speaker 1: I can talk as positive that came about Mike Trout here,
Speaker 1: but we know at the end of the day what
Speaker 1: we're going to be able to argue against. What do
Speaker 1: you think of Oopsie's projection on Mike Trout?
Speaker 2: So I really like Jordan Rosenbloom. I want to say
Speaker 2: this first off, I really like Jordan. He's a really
Speaker 2: smart guy.
Speaker 1: But this always leads to a really really positive comment.
Speaker 1: You're going to I like Jordan as well, by the way,
Speaker 1: but I'm going to keep with the positive go.
Speaker 2: Ahead, But I think the projections are a little too rosy,
Speaker 2: not just for Mike Trout. I think they're a little
Speaker 2: bit too Rosy in general, Like I think Aaron Judge
Speaker 2: is projected for fifty nine home runs. Fifty home runs, like,
Speaker 2: that's not a fiftieth percentile projection.
Speaker 3: It's just not.
Speaker 2: And I think that that's where some people will get
Speaker 2: caught up and seeing the different projections and then being like,
Speaker 2: oh my god, look at Mike Trout on Oopsy or
Speaker 2: look at whoever on Oopsy, And I think it's a
Speaker 2: little bit ambitious sometimes, whether we're talking about the games played,
Speaker 2: we're talking about the raid stats, the raw numbers, like,
Speaker 2: I think all of it is is a bit too optimistic.
Speaker 2: But that being said, if Mike Trout plays one hundred
Speaker 2: and twenty games, this is probably roughly what the line
Speaker 2: is going to look like. I think the main problem
Speaker 2: with me with the Oopsy Trout projection is the games played.
Speaker 2: And it's not just Jordan there because Steamer's got him
Speaker 2: for one twenty, Zips has him for one twenty, but
Speaker 2: I think expecting that at this point is probably not
Speaker 2: two wise. He's combined for one hundred and twenty games
Speaker 2: over the last couple of seasons combined. I don't know
Speaker 2: that I want him to run like Ron Washington likes
Speaker 2: to run. Generally speaking, Trout stole six bases over twenty
Speaker 2: nine games last year.
Speaker 3: I don't want him to run.
Speaker 2: At this point, I'll happily sacrifice the stolen bases to
Speaker 2: keep Mike Trout healthy. If the give off is ten
Speaker 2: or twelve steals and then I have to sacrifice fifty
Speaker 2: games because of that, like, I'll just take the extra games.
Speaker 2: But I think he's still somebody that I have some
Speaker 2: interest in. It's hard to be completely out on him.
Speaker 2: He's the hitter version of Jacob de Grom. If things
Speaker 2: do go right for him, that he could be a
Speaker 2: first round player. But I think that the odds of
Speaker 2: it happening for Mike Trout at this point are very low.
Speaker 2: I think the Angels lineup is a bit better than
Speaker 2: people might think. But at the same time, Trout is
Speaker 2: fairly expensive still, and if you're playing like underdog best balls,
Speaker 2: he's even more expensive. People are more pushing him up
Speaker 2: in points league. So I have a couple of shares.
Speaker 2: I have a couple of shares where it was like tenth,
Speaker 2: eleventh round and a fifteen teamer, and at that point, okay,
Speaker 2: I'll take a chance on him. But for the average player.
Speaker 2: I think that he's he's a lot riskier, Like if
Speaker 2: you're playing in one league this season, if you're just
Speaker 2: in one fantasy league, I don't know that i'd want
Speaker 2: to recommend taking Mike Trout.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: The only thing I disagree with is I kind of
Speaker 1: feel like you're either just enter out like you can't.
Speaker 1: I mean, obviously you can't. I don't want to speak
Speaker 1: in exacts, but like, for the most part, you are
Speaker 1: either like, well, these projections are so great, and his
Speaker 1: cost now is it's so low that like the only
Speaker 1: thing that will defeat this is him having like fifty
Speaker 1: games played, you know, fifty games played destroys that. But
Speaker 1: if he does play one hundred, the one hundred baseline,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna beat the value of this. And
Speaker 1: the other end is like he'll just never play. It
Speaker 1: doesn't matter. I don't want him. It's kind of the
Speaker 1: Jacob de Grom thing. It's like you're either in or
Speaker 1: you're out. At the end of the day. The projection
Speaker 1: doesn't do a lot for me, you know, because it's
Speaker 1: like the question is not about his talent when he's
Speaker 1: out there, it's about him being out there. That's its
Speaker 1: exact same argument as Jacob de Grom. It's not the
Speaker 1: question of his production, it's a question of him being
Speaker 1: out there. Can he stay out there? Can the weight
Speaker 1: loss that Trout did whatever swing to try to keep
Speaker 1: the bat going playing in right field? Will any of
Speaker 1: those things do anything? Maybe the best part about it, though,
Speaker 1: is it is the lowest cost that it's ever been.
Speaker 1: And if you're looking for any confirmation to that feeling,
Speaker 1: Oopsie is a projection that is telling you, hey, these
Speaker 1: are Taoscar numbers. These are essentially Taoscar, Hernandez numbers. You're
Speaker 1: getting Taoscar's going around like the fifties, and Trout's going
Speaker 1: outside the top one hundred. Sometimes later he gets pushed up.
Speaker 1: Maybe it's a question, but the Oopsie projection absolutely loves
Speaker 1: Mike Trout. Going back to ATC, we're gonna talk about
Speaker 1: a rookie Dylan Cruz. It is tough to find rookies
Speaker 1: that are like heavily projected well in any projection system.
Speaker 1: Years and years ago, I remember rookie Vladimir Guerrero was
Speaker 1: projected like the highest batting average. But it's more often
Speaker 1: than non projections are going to really underplay and then
Speaker 1: everybody gets really mad. That is not the case here
Speaker 1: with this rookie Dylan Cruz, who is still technically prospect
Speaker 1: eligible on ATC. The batting average doesn't jump out to you.
Speaker 1: It's two forty four, but he is essentially projected for
Speaker 1: a fifteen thirty season fifteen homers, twenty eight stolen bases,
Speaker 1: sixty nine runs, and sixty one RBI. There's some variants
Speaker 1: in there where he's hitting in the order. He hit
Speaker 1: lead off a ton for Washington when he was up.
Speaker 1: We'll see where that goes this season. But a few
Speaker 1: notches positive here or there. You're now talking about a
Speaker 1: guy that is fifteen thirty. Maybe he pushes eighty runs
Speaker 1: and the value is exponentially high. Again, this is a
Speaker 1: guy that's outside the one twenty five. I'm not looking
Speaker 1: at it right now. Depends on the ADP you're looking at.
Speaker 1: But this is guy well outside the top one hundred
Speaker 1: that is heavily, heavily projected on ATC for a very
Speaker 1: strong season, and that maybe leads to some more upside.
Speaker 1: What do you think about ATC's projection on Dylan.
Speaker 3: Cruz feels about right.
Speaker 2: The number is getting more expensive if I just sort
Speaker 2: by the last two weeks for Dylan Cruz, the ADP
Speaker 2: is one fifteen, so he is starting to rise a
Speaker 2: little bit and and I understand it. He's the guy
Speaker 2: that I've landed on a few times, more so earlier
Speaker 2: in draft season when it was one forty one to
Speaker 2: fifty price. Now I think I'd probably still buy in,
Speaker 2: but definitely more appealing a couple rounds later.
Speaker 1: Do you think fifteen thirty, Like, does a fifteen thirty
Speaker 1: season put you as a guy that should be top
Speaker 1: one hundred, Like, what's the marker that is making him
Speaker 1: too expensive based on his stat line?
Speaker 2: I think when you're looking at the batting average projections,
Speaker 2: when you're looking at the counting stats, if that's getting
Speaker 2: inside of the top one hundred, and there's some systems
Speaker 2: that are calling for And again, like projections for young
Speaker 2: guys are usually a little bit off. Prospects don't usually
Speaker 2: get captured fully because there's just not as much data.
Speaker 2: But I think with Dylan Cruz, if he ends up
Speaker 2: going like let's say that price goes up and he's
Speaker 2: going exactly a pick one hundred, and then I'm taking
Speaker 2: any of these systems at face value, that means I'm
Speaker 2: not getting seventy RBI. That means that I might get
Speaker 2: seventy runs, fifteen homers, twenty some odds deals with a
Speaker 2: batting average that's not going to hurt or help me.
Speaker 2: I think in the one fifty range, I really like them.
Speaker 2: I think that that's where you take a chance on
Speaker 2: the upside, pushing top one hundred when there are a
Speaker 2: couple categories that do worry me a little bit. I
Speaker 2: don't think the lineup is amazing. I think it's I
Speaker 2: think it's a good lineup, but I think there are
Speaker 2: still some questions. I think that he's somebody that if
Speaker 2: the price continues to jump up, I'm going to probably
Speaker 2: stay away. But you probably won't see him jump up
Speaker 2: quite as much in other formats like let me just
Speaker 2: pull up the Fantasy pros Consensus ADP. It's probably lower
Speaker 2: because a lot of the time, if you're talking about
Speaker 2: NFBC leagues, people are shooting for upside. So I'm going
Speaker 2: to pull it up here, Chris, I'm going to talk
Speaker 2: for a quick second.
Speaker 1: Well, I was gonna say, I think, well, I think
Speaker 1: a lot with a lot of those one system can
Speaker 1: bring it down. But Dylan Cruz still suffers from, you know,
Speaker 1: some potential potholes if you will, like you know, slider
Speaker 1: chasing and stuff like that as far as where his
Speaker 1: batting average is going to go. But do want to
Speaker 1: point out he only two eighteen last year had an
Speaker 1: expected batting average of two point fifty three, so that
Speaker 1: two fifty range, obviously projections are laying a little bit lower.
Speaker 1: If you get to the two fifty two sixty range.
Speaker 1: That's a difference between Dylan Cruz being outside the top
Speaker 1: one hundred and probably being a top seventy five player.
Speaker 2: So by our consensus ADP, it's one thirty three, and
Speaker 2: I think that's that's a good price. Than that, I
Speaker 2: get a little bit worried, but that is I think
Speaker 2: a good range. If you're getting him in the ninth
Speaker 2: round or even the eighth round of a fifteen teamer,
Speaker 2: or if you're talking about like the eleventh round of
Speaker 2: a twelve teamer, I think that's a really good price.
Speaker 1: Room two more players here, and we are gonna we
Speaker 1: got one hitter and one pitcher. This is another hitter.
Speaker 1: I think you and I can both agree on. This
Speaker 1: is a very early early bounce back guy. For me,
Speaker 1: and I think you are with it. We are going
Speaker 1: to go to Steamer projections and we're going to look
Speaker 1: at Toronto Blue Jays Bobaschhett, Bobachett coming off of clearly
Speaker 1: just a bad season. I tend to think, and I
Speaker 1: gotta be careful about it, because there's a couple guys
Speaker 1: that I've looked at and it's like, man, the seasons
Speaker 1: were so bad, they feel more Those feel more outlier
Speaker 1: based on the skill set than it does the new
Speaker 1: norm little bit Luise Robert, but definitely in my mind
Speaker 1: it has been Bobaschett. Some projections obviously have some bounce backs,
Speaker 1: but the most aggressive has been Steamer projecting him almost
Speaker 1: at a two to eighty average, two seventy nine, twenty
Speaker 1: one homers, eleven stolen in eighty six runs. It's fair
Speaker 1: to say if he goes twenty ten with that high
Speaker 1: batting average and those runs, he is going to more
Speaker 1: than recoup the value. The question is going to be,
Speaker 1: you know, Steamer gets a little Pollyanna, maybe like how
Speaker 1: oopsie is you're talking about? You know, is this a
Speaker 1: little bit overplayed because some of the other atc in
Speaker 1: the bat I think are playing it down a little
Speaker 1: bit because some of the skill sets have changed on
Speaker 1: Boba Schett. But I'm buying back in. I know you're
Speaker 1: buying back in. What do you think of Steamer's twenty
Speaker 1: ten eighty six runs and a two eighty average projection?
Speaker 2: Love it as a whole, but I'm not buying into
Speaker 2: the speed anymore. I think the speed is not gone.
Speaker 2: But if you look at like the stat cast sprint speed,
Speaker 2: he's below the fiftieth percentile, and that's something that has
Speaker 2: been trending in the wrong direction for a couple of years.
Speaker 2: He's still twenty five bases in his breakout season, then
Speaker 2: every year's progressively gone down. I think that you can
Speaker 2: probably count on him for a handful of steals, whether
Speaker 2: it's five or eight or four or nine, like it's
Speaker 2: gonna be somewhere in that range. If he gets the
Speaker 2: double digits, I'd be pretty surprised. But I think the
Speaker 2: adding average is a huge, huge bounce back potential to
Speaker 2: go along with the big power. We saw him hit
Speaker 2: a ball out of the stadium yesterday spring training. I
Speaker 2: don't want to read too much into it. I'm not
Speaker 2: even sure who was on the mound, so you never
Speaker 2: know in spring training, but it's a positive sign. I
Speaker 2: think that he's not a guy who is a risk
Speaker 2: from a profile standpoint. The injuries are a little bit concerning,
Speaker 2: but we're talking about a guy who's twenty five has
Speaker 2: even turned twenty six years old.
Speaker 3: You know, he's twenty six years old. Excuse me, who
Speaker 3: was a fantasy star for three seasons.
Speaker 2: He has a bad, injury plagued year, and now the
Speaker 2: price has gone down by like ten rounds. That's an
Speaker 2: easy buyback for me. I am a Blue Jays fan.
Speaker 2: You guys know this, but leaving the Homer bias at
Speaker 2: the door, I still think, Bobah, that's a great pick
Speaker 2: this year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's some dramatic things that changed again that feel,
Speaker 1: and it could be the start of a completely offset
Speaker 1: skill set, you know, where everything is changing. But like,
Speaker 1: he was essentially like a nine barrel percent guy his
Speaker 1: entire career and then it dipped down to four percent.
Speaker 1: To me, that's kind of an anomaly. The hard hit
Speaker 1: rate has kind of had a steady drop, but it
Speaker 1: still didn't go to some crazy, crazy worrisome range. The
Speaker 1: k's stayed the same, the walk stayed the same, and
Speaker 1: one of the weirdest things is he has always hit
Speaker 1: lefties well. As a matter of fact, up until this
Speaker 1: past season, he had never hit under two sixty against
Speaker 1: left handed pitchers. He hit one sixty this past season,
Speaker 1: one sixty, one hundred points lower than he had ever
Speaker 1: done in his entire career. So I think there's a
Speaker 1: couple elements you can take a look at with Bobashet
Speaker 1: and you can say this probably isn't going to hold.
Speaker 1: By the way, almost seventy point difference in his lower
Speaker 1: babbit than his career babbit and almost one hundred points
Speaker 1: year over year, So there's some bad luck in there.
Speaker 1: Maybe things don't change, but it's a really good buybacked
Speaker 1: potential projections are there, and maybe it's because of three
Speaker 1: year averages, but I love the Steamer projection on Bobaschet
Speaker 1: and he's a risk worth taking that low. The final one,
Speaker 1: we are gonna go back to Oopsy and this is
Speaker 1: just a fun one that I found here. It is
Speaker 1: a You're not eagle, never guess the guy that I
Speaker 1: was going to put on this list, because we've had
Speaker 1: some big names here. It's a starting pitcher with the
Speaker 1: New York Mets, Clay Holmes, who is going to be
Speaker 1: his starting pitcher this year. Oopsy has him projected as
Speaker 1: the eleventh lowest ra among starting pitchers at three to two.
Speaker 1: I will say there might be some convolutedness in it
Speaker 1: because it's got him pitching a whole lot of it
Speaker 1: hasn't projected for like twenty three starts, but then pitching
Speaker 1: some relief games. He is set to stretch out to
Speaker 1: be a starter this year, Yet the projection also has
Speaker 1: him three So I said three two ERA one hundred
Speaker 1: and sixty four innings with a nine to three to
Speaker 1: two k per nine. The reason why this is relative
Speaker 1: is this is one of those guys that is free
Speaker 1: ninety nine. This is a free guy in most drafts
Speaker 1: that is not being drafted. Oopsy is absolutely through the roof.
Speaker 1: They're kind of giving him the Michael kingtree. So what
Speaker 1: do you think here, mister Joe Rico on Clay Holmes.
Speaker 2: That's the thing is the Michael King comps. And I
Speaker 2: understand it like reliever going to starter, But Michael King
Speaker 2: is one of the better pitchers in baseball, and I
Speaker 2: don't think that Clay Holmes is going to get there
Speaker 2: this year. I'm intrigued about the change up, he needs
Speaker 2: another pitch. Just having two pitches as a starter is
Speaker 2: not going to really fly. But if you're looking at
Speaker 2: the projections and the innings in particular, like the last
Speaker 2: three years for clay homes, like Clockwork sixty three, sixty three,
Speaker 2: sixty three innings, you know Zips has them for one
Speaker 2: seventy three Oopsy won sixty four. Those are massive jumps.
Speaker 2: And also when they're not talking about any change in
Speaker 2: strikeout rate, like they're projecting Oopsy a twenty three point
Speaker 2: eight percent strikeout rate coming from a twenty five percent
Speaker 2: strikeout rate, I think that that's a little bit bold
Speaker 2: to expect that he's going to have an innings jump
Speaker 2: of one hundred while maintaining the same strikeout rate, maybe
Speaker 2: boosting the walk right up a little bit, and also
Speaker 2: giving you a three to eer like. I think that
Speaker 2: we're probably hoping for a little bit too much, and
Speaker 2: he might be one of the guys this year that
Speaker 2: gets overhyped and then he'll get pushed up a lot,
Speaker 2: like because like you said, the price right now is
Speaker 2: non existent. People start to see he's adding a kick
Speaker 2: change and he has a couple of good spring outings
Speaker 2: and then he's shooting.
Speaker 3: Up ten rounds.
Speaker 2: That's where I get concerned right now. And this rangery's
Speaker 2: going no problem at all taking a chance. I've done
Speaker 2: it myself a couple times this year. But as people
Speaker 2: start to get more excited, as people start to start
Speaker 2: watching these shows and getting back into the spring training routine,
Speaker 2: I feel like the hype train is going to leave
Speaker 2: the station before Clay Holmes is actually fully ready to
Speaker 2: be an elite starter.
Speaker 3: I think next year will be a big year.
Speaker 2: If Clay Holmes is able to get to like one
Speaker 2: twenty one to thirty this year with success, and then
Speaker 2: next year he can jump to one sixty one seventy,
Speaker 2: That's kind of what I'm looking for here.
Speaker 1: Well, I'm not sure his ADP is ever going to
Speaker 1: jump to a range that's going to make him not draftable,
Speaker 1: so he might be worth the shot he I mean,
Speaker 1: it's not like Michael King. You know, I was very,
Speaker 1: very very heavy on Michael King last year, and he
Speaker 1: kept going up and up and up, and obviously now
Speaker 1: he's you know, inside that top fifty range. If Clay
Speaker 1: Holmes jumps into a really you know, if he starts,
Speaker 1: if people are deciding between like Sandy al Contra and
Speaker 1: Clay Holmes. Okay, but at this point he is a
Speaker 1: bit free. The comparisons are interesting his slider and sweeper.
Speaker 1: A four mile proer differential between those two pitches both
Speaker 1: generated a thirty eight percent or higher wiff rates. So
Speaker 1: you've got two different slider types that you're throwing for
Speaker 1: really really really high wiff rates. The fastball is not
Speaker 1: going to tick and it didn't strike out or the
Speaker 1: sinker he threw so thirteen percent K pitch, so it's
Speaker 1: a setup pitch to those others, which, by the way,
Speaker 1: slider thirty nine percent K percentage, sweeper forty three percent.
Speaker 1: And I think that throwing in maybe a change up addition,
Speaker 1: that's where the Michael King coomps start to come into play.
Speaker 1: Maybe just a good dart throw. Projections really love him.
Speaker 1: Will we all love him at the end of the year.
Speaker 1: I don't know, but the projections sure do. Friends. Those
Speaker 1: are ten players that Projections absolutely love, and we didn't
Speaker 1: just pick on one. We talked about a bunch of
Speaker 1: different projection systems hitters, and if you have identified a
Speaker 1: guy that Projections absolutely love that we didn't hit, drop
Speaker 1: it below in the comments, Let's see who we've got
Speaker 1: because there are deeper plays. It becomes more the definition
Speaker 1: of like, what's really love? What is rue? What does
Speaker 1: love have to do with it? Well, you guys, let
Speaker 1: us know some of your favorite players based on projections below,
Speaker 1: and go and check us out over on Fantasy Pros
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Speaker 1: got mine, Rico, I imagine you either have yours up
Speaker 1: or it'll be there soon. Bogman. We got lots and
Speaker 1: lots of great information there. You can check out the ECR,
Speaker 1: the ADP, and all of our data. Plus get down
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Speaker 1: go over at Fantasy Pros. That is it, my friends.
Speaker 1: Thank you guys for hanging out with us. As always,
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Speaker 1: on Fantasy Pros MLB.
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