1
00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:07,760
Speaker 1: What's up, friends, and welcome into Fantasy Pros, the Fantasy

2
00:00:07,840 --> 00:00:11,320
Speaker 1: Baseball Podcast. I'm Chris Welsh. That's Joe Rico, and today

3
00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:16,600
Speaker 1: we're talking about projections. Who love these players or players

4
00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:19,439
Speaker 1: that projections are loving. We're looking at some of the

5
00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:23,800
Speaker 1: bigger projections out there, from ATC to steamer to the bat,

6
00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:25,840
Speaker 1: and we are going to look at some players that

7
00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:30,400
Speaker 1: really pop. We've got ten players that projections love this year,

8
00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:33,400
Speaker 1: Joe Rico. And whether you love projections or not, I

9
00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:36,560
Speaker 1: guess that's a whole nother sticky situation across the board.

10
00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:39,120
Speaker 1: And it is always funny when some of these major

11
00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:43,080
Speaker 1: systems will aggressively disagree, even in like a positive way

12
00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:44,959
Speaker 1: where a guy really pops. But we're going to talk

13
00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:48,080
Speaker 1: about some of these guys today and how much does

14
00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:51,440
Speaker 1: projections weigh into your valuation on players.

15
00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:54,120
Speaker 2: It's become a huge part of the process over the

16
00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:56,320
Speaker 2: last couple of years. I feel like every year that

17
00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:59,000
Speaker 2: goes by, I rely less on my own observations and

18
00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:01,520
Speaker 2: more on the data. You know, as much as I

19
00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:03,440
Speaker 2: watch a ton of games and I go through this

20
00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:06,759
Speaker 2: stuff constantly like you do, like we all do, there's

21
00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:08,640
Speaker 2: only so much you can do. And when you rely

22
00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:10,919
Speaker 2: on the numbers, especially for the rates stats, I find

23
00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:14,080
Speaker 2: you're not going to be better at projecting batting average.

24
00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:15,720
Speaker 3: Or er or whip or things like that.

25
00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:18,400
Speaker 2: Then the systems are you can make adjustments for things

26
00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:19,880
Speaker 2: like playing time if you think a guy is going

27
00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:22,119
Speaker 2: to have a bigger role than expected. But I've come

28
00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:24,600
Speaker 2: to really rely on them, especially for those rates stats

29
00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:25,600
Speaker 2: over the last couple of years.

30
00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:29,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, And whether you put one hundred percent valuation into

31
00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:33,679
Speaker 1: projections or I wouldn't say put zero, I definitely think

32
00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:37,039
Speaker 1: a good way to, you know, use projections at the

33
00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:40,360
Speaker 1: minimalist point is as a reference point and go and

34
00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:42,520
Speaker 1: you know, okay, this is where this guy is. Maybe

35
00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:46,760
Speaker 1: it's a confirmation by you know, it's confirming something you're

36
00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:49,960
Speaker 1: already feeling about a specific player. But going through kind

37
00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:53,680
Speaker 1: of seeing some using these as the tool in your

38
00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:56,200
Speaker 1: tool belt is the best approach to it. At worst.

39
00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:59,120
Speaker 1: If you're not beholden to the projections and we're not

40
00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:01,800
Speaker 1: focusing on once one again, we are going to be

41
00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:04,520
Speaker 1: poking through a couple of them, finding some of these

42
00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:07,360
Speaker 1: players that jump out to you before we get to it. Though,

43
00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:10,800
Speaker 1: we've been talking about a giveaway, and we are ready

44
00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:15,480
Speaker 1: to announce the winner of the Billy Wagner autograph Baseball giveaway.

45
00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:19,840
Speaker 1: That winner is Superman Chee Chee. That's right, just like

46
00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:22,720
Speaker 1: you guys all thought, Superman Chee Chee. Please get in

47
00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:25,600
Speaker 1: touch with our customer support agents at mail bag at

48
00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:28,800
Speaker 1: Fantasypros dot com with your mailing address, proof of your

49
00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:31,920
Speaker 1: subscription to the Fantasy Pros MiLB YouTube channel and we

50
00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:34,360
Speaker 1: will get that shipped out to you again. The winner.

51
00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:36,760
Speaker 1: What an all time name to give an announcement and

52
00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:42,680
Speaker 1: not laugh. Superman Chee Chee. Congratulations, my friend. We are

53
00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,120
Speaker 1: not done though. It's time for a brand new giveaway.

54
00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:49,160
Speaker 1: This one is great. We are giving away a John

55
00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:53,560
Speaker 1: Smoltz signed Braves jersey, how about that, courtesy of our

56
00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:56,840
Speaker 1: friends over at Pristine Auction dot com. All you've got

57
00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:59,799
Speaker 1: to do, just like Superman Chee Chee did, to enter,

58
00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:02,520
Speaker 1: is make sure you're subscribe to the Fantasy Pros YouTube

59
00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:05,200
Speaker 1: channel right now. Drop a comment below on this video,

60
00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:09,880
Speaker 1: maybe a player in projections that you love, and that's it.

61
00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:11,960
Speaker 1: We'll be announcing a lucky winner right here on the channel.

62
00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:14,400
Speaker 1: So make sure you turn on notifications so you know

63
00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:16,720
Speaker 1: when the next videos are up and you can claim

64
00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:20,239
Speaker 1: your prize. Let's get to it. Let's talk about these

65
00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:24,040
Speaker 1: players that projections love. Number one is a big name

66
00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:25,960
Speaker 1: and has gotten a lot of push on this channel,

67
00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:31,560
Speaker 1: mister Joe Rico. But ATC really pops this player. He

68
00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:34,600
Speaker 1: is Garrett Crochet. So we're gonna be focusing on ATC

69
00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:38,400
Speaker 1: projections for this one A three two one era one

70
00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:40,920
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty two innings. That's a key number there,

71
00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:45,480
Speaker 1: with the second highest K per nine among starting pitchers. Now,

72
00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:49,360
Speaker 1: why this projection really pops, You know, because you can

73
00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:51,120
Speaker 1: go and you can look at like war and whatever

74
00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:55,440
Speaker 1: you want, but he has the second highest K per

75
00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:59,920
Speaker 1: nine among all starting pitchers. The next level of why

76
00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:02,320
Speaker 1: this is so important, why the projections love this show,

77
00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:06,880
Speaker 1: is that he's really not projected at any more innings.

78
00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:08,600
Speaker 1: We saw Garret Croche, I think it was one hundred

79
00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:11,240
Speaker 1: and forty six last year. They're only projecting him at

80
00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:15,920
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty two. I said, So this projection

81
00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:20,200
Speaker 1: pops even more if he beats that projected inning marker

82
00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:24,360
Speaker 1: he I talked with Ariol about. This would become essentially

83
00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:27,640
Speaker 1: like the number two or number three overall starting pitcher

84
00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:30,320
Speaker 1: in fantasy, because he would lead the league in projected

85
00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:32,760
Speaker 1: strikeouts if he had one hundred and seventy innings, he

86
00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:36,839
Speaker 1: would be over everybody. Right now, Garrett Crochet really really

87
00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:39,560
Speaker 1: pops in ATC. The only thing that doesn't pop here

88
00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:42,600
Speaker 1: are the projected innings, and that might be playing it

89
00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:45,200
Speaker 1: too low. So what do you think about Garrett Crochet

90
00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:46,760
Speaker 1: and these ATC projections?

91
00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:48,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, so the first thing that people should know about

92
00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:51,360
Speaker 2: projections as a whole is that they tend to aim

93
00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:55,239
Speaker 2: for a fiftieth percentile outcome. There is one projection system

94
00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:57,200
Speaker 2: we're going to talk about later today that's a little

95
00:04:57,240 --> 00:04:59,720
Speaker 2: bit more optimistic, but generally speaking, their aiming for the

96
00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:02,719
Speaker 2: middle the road. So I understand why they're a little

97
00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:06,800
Speaker 2: more cautious on Crochet's innings. That being said, I think

98
00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:09,240
Speaker 2: that when you're looking at like Steamers one seventy, that's

99
00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:11,560
Speaker 2: probably where he's probably going to get to. The White

100
00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:13,840
Speaker 2: Sox did everything they could to keep him healthy last year,

101
00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:15,880
Speaker 2: and I think that you can project a twenty to

102
00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:18,760
Speaker 2: twenty five inning jump pretty easily if you're looking at

103
00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:22,479
Speaker 2: player raiders and if you put in ATC's projections, like

104
00:05:22,520 --> 00:05:25,480
Speaker 2: into the Fangrass player Raider. Then Crochet comes out as

105
00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:27,960
Speaker 2: the number six starting pitcher, and that's in one hundred

106
00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:29,520
Speaker 2: and fifty two innings. If you jack that up by

107
00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:32,000
Speaker 2: twenty innings, I imagine he would be somewhere in the

108
00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:34,920
Speaker 2: SP three or four range. I doubt he would reach

109
00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:37,520
Speaker 2: Scoble and Schemes on a projection standpoint.

110
00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:39,680
Speaker 3: But we did a ton of pitching.

111
00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:42,159
Speaker 2: Shows last week and the last one was myself with

112
00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:45,280
Speaker 2: Nick Pollock and Inosaurus, and Nick has Garrett Crochet's number

113
00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:48,440
Speaker 2: two starting pitcher ahead of Paul Skin, so there's a

114
00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:50,320
Speaker 2: lot of love for him. I have him at number four, Welsh.

115
00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:52,240
Speaker 2: I think you got him top five, and there's a

116
00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:55,560
Speaker 2: good reason for it. He's absolutely brilliant, especially coming from

117
00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:58,320
Speaker 2: the left side with his size. I think Crochet could

118
00:05:58,320 --> 00:05:59,880
Speaker 2: be the number one starting pitcher and I wouldn't be

119
00:05:59,920 --> 00:06:00,800
Speaker 2: so prize by it at all.

120
00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:04,599
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've got him at number four in my SPS,

121
00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:06,839
Speaker 1: and obviously you and I are always battling to get

122
00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:08,880
Speaker 1: him in MOX. We've been done one in a little bit.

123
00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:12,120
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think the You're right, Like, these are

124
00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:14,760
Speaker 1: median averages, so they're usually not on the high end.

125
00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:18,159
Speaker 1: And to see what and how Crochet really pops on

126
00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:21,200
Speaker 1: ATC Knowing that you could just bump up the innings

127
00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:22,880
Speaker 1: a little bit, he becomes one of the most valuable

128
00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:25,640
Speaker 1: pitchers in baseball. There's a confirmation to it. You know

129
00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:29,640
Speaker 1: ATC is you know, either been one or two in

130
00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:33,159
Speaker 1: the most accurate projection systems across the board. But also

131
00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:35,680
Speaker 1: last season told you plenty that you know what you

132
00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:37,800
Speaker 1: need to know about Gerrett Croche thirty five percent k

133
00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:42,400
Speaker 1: percentage and expected ERA that was under three the number

134
00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:45,200
Speaker 1: this year. Era estimators can be a little bit tough

135
00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:49,000
Speaker 1: in projections, but you're still given a very, very favorable number.

136
00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:50,800
Speaker 1: So you want to talk about a player that pops

137
00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:54,160
Speaker 1: in projections, it's Garrett Crochet, and he's even a little

138
00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:57,680
Speaker 1: hidden just by one number that's on there. Let's move

139
00:06:57,720 --> 00:06:59,279
Speaker 1: to number two. We're going to go to a hitter

140
00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:01,960
Speaker 1: and now we're going to over to the projection system

141
00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:05,320
Speaker 1: that won number one most accurate according to Fantasy Pros

142
00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:08,720
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four, the bat X. We're going to

143
00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:12,600
Speaker 1: go to oneal cruise, oneal cruise. Why are we talking

144
00:07:12,640 --> 00:07:15,320
Speaker 1: about him? He's you know, mid fifties and whatnot. Well,

145
00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:18,520
Speaker 1: most of the systems have him in this like low

146
00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:22,120
Speaker 1: twenty ish range, you know, like twenty two homers, twenty

147
00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:25,280
Speaker 1: one stolen bases, something in there. But the bat X

148
00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:30,600
Speaker 1: is very aggressive, so much so it's increases across the board,

149
00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,120
Speaker 1: and you don't necessarily see that, especially from a guy

150
00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:36,280
Speaker 1: that had a you know, a pretty like solid season.

151
00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:39,520
Speaker 1: I think that defied some expectations, but we're talking increases

152
00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:44,200
Speaker 1: across the board. Twenty eight homer projection, twenty three stolen

153
00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:49,160
Speaker 1: base projection, eighty six run, eighty four rbi. These are

154
00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:54,120
Speaker 1: all like well over last year numbers, and he's towing

155
00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:56,520
Speaker 1: the line. If you were to meet those bat X

156
00:07:56,560 --> 00:07:59,600
Speaker 1: projections to being close to a thirty twenty five guy,

157
00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:02,160
Speaker 1: that you could seeing if that offense is even a

158
00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:04,920
Speaker 1: little bit more positive, maybe he's pushing one hundred runs,

159
00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:06,800
Speaker 1: hundred rbi. I mean, those are the type of things

160
00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:09,360
Speaker 1: that make you a first round talent. That X is

161
00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:12,960
Speaker 1: very very positive on O'Neal Cruz. What do you think there,

162
00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:13,840
Speaker 1: Joe Rico.

163
00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:17,000
Speaker 2: So the bad X is higher on him because it

164
00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:21,000
Speaker 2: incorporates the stat cast data, which is just ridiculous for

165
00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:24,080
Speaker 2: O'Neil Cruz, like he had a fifteen percent barrel rate,

166
00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:27,600
Speaker 2: nearly sixteen fifty five percent hard hit rate, and I

167
00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:30,760
Speaker 2: don't think those get captured in the majority of the systems,

168
00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:32,640
Speaker 2: Like even in Just the Bat, I don't think it

169
00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:35,160
Speaker 2: gets captured. But the bad X Derek does incorporate the

170
00:08:35,160 --> 00:08:39,480
Speaker 2: stat cast data. I understand it, and I understand wanting

171
00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:43,080
Speaker 2: to be optimistic about O'Neil Cruz, but I'm not sure

172
00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:46,720
Speaker 2: that the power is necessarily going to translate to in

173
00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:50,320
Speaker 2: game thirty home run potential. The launch angle is not

174
00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:53,440
Speaker 2: necessarily ideal. I I'd like it if he raised the

175
00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:56,520
Speaker 2: ball a little bit more. And there's also the strikeouts,

176
00:08:56,760 --> 00:08:59,400
Speaker 2: like fifteen percent swinging strike rate, he had a twenty

177
00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:02,320
Speaker 2: nine percent s wake out rate. And there's also the

178
00:09:02,360 --> 00:09:05,520
Speaker 2: lineup around him, which is not that great. Spencer Horwitz

179
00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:07,280
Speaker 2: got hurt. So I think I am more of a

180
00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:10,640
Speaker 2: pessimist on O'Neil Cruz. I understand the reasons for optimism,

181
00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:14,280
Speaker 2: but I think the projections being even what they are,

182
00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:16,199
Speaker 2: he's probably somebody that I'm staying away from a lot

183
00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:16,560
Speaker 2: of the time.

184
00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:20,360
Speaker 1: O'Neill is always a guy that I'm trying to invest in.

185
00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:23,400
Speaker 1: The cost gets a little bit higher than what you want,

186
00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:25,880
Speaker 1: but I'm very much for this. I actually thought we

187
00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:28,640
Speaker 1: were going to see a bigger power out boost last

188
00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:31,600
Speaker 1: year over the speed, and he fell short of I

189
00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:33,960
Speaker 1: think I had even put like a futures bet on

190
00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:36,040
Speaker 1: twenty four point five I think was on the home

191
00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:38,559
Speaker 1: run total, and we didn't quite get there. So you're

192
00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:40,880
Speaker 1: not wrong about the launch angle. I just I do

193
00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:43,520
Speaker 1: think that is something that is going to be rectifiable.

194
00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:47,320
Speaker 1: One of the reasons that you know he may have

195
00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:50,440
Speaker 1: that kind of lower approach could be that he was

196
00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:52,360
Speaker 1: trying to make more contact. That's the big thing that

197
00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:54,000
Speaker 1: nobody thought. I don't know Cruise was going to be

198
00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:56,640
Speaker 1: able to do. He had two fifty nine last season

199
00:09:56,920 --> 00:10:00,600
Speaker 1: with an expected batting average higher. This is why striking

200
00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:03,439
Speaker 1: out thirty percent of the time, So you know something

201
00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:06,920
Speaker 1: will have to give at some point. It's monstrous, monstrous

202
00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:10,760
Speaker 1: contact numbers. I have some optimism that the strikeout numbers

203
00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:12,920
Speaker 1: can come down, the quality of contact can get the

204
00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:14,920
Speaker 1: ball in the air a little bit more. He finished

205
00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:17,760
Speaker 1: the year with a two seventy seven. This is post

206
00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:21,040
Speaker 1: All Star break, a two seventy seven average, really really

207
00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:23,679
Speaker 1: strong push to the second half of the season where

208
00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:27,400
Speaker 1: you also saw the strikeouts dip down, the homers dip

209
00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:29,200
Speaker 1: down a little bit, and he stole more bases, but

210
00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:32,360
Speaker 1: it's some of the biggest contact in the world. I

211
00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:35,720
Speaker 1: love bat X incorporating some of the stat cast data

212
00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:38,559
Speaker 1: in here and projections love him. I love him. I

213
00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:41,720
Speaker 1: think the floor is set you at twenty twenty. You know,

214
00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:43,520
Speaker 1: do you want to pay high prices? But I think

215
00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:46,920
Speaker 1: the ceiling again for a median system, the ceiling is

216
00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:48,920
Speaker 1: putting you in at like almost a twenty five to

217
00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:52,240
Speaker 1: twenty five, maybe a thirty twenty five. But again, these

218
00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:54,120
Speaker 1: are our feelings about it. At the end of the day,

219
00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:58,160
Speaker 1: the projections on the bat X love Oneio Cruz number three.

220
00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:01,400
Speaker 1: Let's go to another starting pitcher. I'm gonna go to Steamer,

221
00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:05,840
Speaker 1: the always optimistic Steamer, Mister Joe Rico. How about Chris Sale.

222
00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:09,679
Speaker 1: Chris Sale obviously at a phenomenon onece IM there's plenty

223
00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:14,120
Speaker 1: to be optimistic about. Rankings have kind of been all

224
00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:15,920
Speaker 1: over the board on him and like where they feel

225
00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:19,040
Speaker 1: putting him in different tiers. But Steamer is very, very

226
00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:22,440
Speaker 1: highly aggressive on him, actually has him as the only

227
00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:26,960
Speaker 1: fourteen win pitcher among starting pitchers. He's only one a

228
00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:30,880
Speaker 1: three point zero seven ERA and an over eleven K

229
00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:34,480
Speaker 1: per nine in again a probably highly aggressive one hundred

230
00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:39,000
Speaker 1: and eighty six innings. To mind you his stats, his

231
00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:43,559
Speaker 1: stat line projection on Steamer, it's like just points off

232
00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:46,760
Speaker 1: of what you're looking at Schooble in schemes. So Steamer

233
00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:49,600
Speaker 1: is telling you that Chris Sale is a huge value

234
00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:53,439
Speaker 1: at what round three, round four, something like that. Projections

235
00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:56,480
Speaker 1: absolutely love Chris Sale, but do you do the Arico

236
00:11:56,559 --> 00:11:57,560
Speaker 1: projections love him.

237
00:11:58,120 --> 00:11:58,960
Speaker 3: I really like him.

238
00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:01,400
Speaker 2: I have him at number nine, but I'd think those

239
00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:04,199
Speaker 2: innings projections are a little bit lofty one hundred and

240
00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:07,679
Speaker 2: eighty seven, one hundred and eighty two from another system,

241
00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:10,280
Speaker 2: I think that he should probably be more in that

242
00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:14,760
Speaker 2: zips to ATC one one fifty four kind of territory.

243
00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:16,760
Speaker 2: I think Eno said he had him projected for one

244
00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:20,240
Speaker 2: fifty six. We can't just ignore all of the injuries

245
00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:22,960
Speaker 2: that have happened throughout the course of his career. Last

246
00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:26,400
Speaker 2: year was a healthy season, but he didn't finish the

247
00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:27,040
Speaker 2: season healthy.

248
00:12:27,040 --> 00:12:28,640
Speaker 3: If you guys remember, he had to miss that playoff

249
00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:29,360
Speaker 3: game against the Mets.

250
00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:31,559
Speaker 2: I don't think that that's a huge concern but when

251
00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:33,680
Speaker 2: you're getting to his age and now is he thirty

252
00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:35,480
Speaker 2: seven yet? No, he's gonna oh sorry, no, he's me

253
00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:38,720
Speaker 2: thirty six in actually later this month.

254
00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:43,160
Speaker 3: So at that stage of your career, you never really know.

255
00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:45,760
Speaker 2: What's going to happen to a guy, especially somebody who

256
00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:48,080
Speaker 2: has the series of injuries that Sale has had. That

257
00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:50,440
Speaker 2: being said, I think a lot of them were more

258
00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:52,120
Speaker 2: on the fluky side. It's not like he had two

259
00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:54,320
Speaker 2: Tommy John's or something like that. So I think he

260
00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:56,600
Speaker 2: can still go out there and be effective. But I

261
00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:58,319
Speaker 2: think if you're drafting him, you might want to bank

262
00:12:58,360 --> 00:12:59,679
Speaker 2: in that there's probably going to be some kind of

263
00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:02,120
Speaker 2: eye stint at some point. And I don't think he's

264
00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:03,840
Speaker 2: going to push two hundred innings. I think that he's

265
00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:07,360
Speaker 2: probably somewhere in that one fifty range, and that should

266
00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:09,840
Speaker 2: still be very valuable, especially on a on a team

267
00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:11,439
Speaker 2: like the Braves that should be in line for a

268
00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:12,880
Speaker 2: big bounce back as a Hoole this year.

269
00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:15,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think one of the things it's funny,

270
00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:19,319
Speaker 1: because you know, we talked about Crochet in ATC kind

271
00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:25,000
Speaker 1: of limiting and mitigating down the value on based on

272
00:13:25,040 --> 00:13:28,240
Speaker 1: the innings. Chris sales value is pushed up definitely by

273
00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:31,520
Speaker 1: this high projected innings. To be fair, this is only

274
00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:33,200
Speaker 1: a little bit more than he had last year because

275
00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:35,600
Speaker 1: he did have one hundred and seventy seven innings. Pitch

276
00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:38,280
Speaker 1: won the Cy young. This team is going to need him.

277
00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:40,880
Speaker 1: They're highly competitive, they're going to be playing down the stretch.

278
00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:42,880
Speaker 1: But it's not to say that, you know, due to

279
00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:45,000
Speaker 1: age and due to some injury history, that that is

280
00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:48,240
Speaker 1: still being optimistic. I'd probably agree. I think you can

281
00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:51,040
Speaker 1: maybe even split the middle between these one forty one

282
00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:53,320
Speaker 1: fifties in the one to seventy, call it one sixty,

283
00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:56,679
Speaker 1: and he's still a pretty good value. But I think

284
00:13:57,120 --> 00:13:59,440
Speaker 1: you know, wherever you are on Steamer, it's very, very

285
00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:02,880
Speaker 1: highly agree. Strikeout numbers as well, would you like to

286
00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:05,400
Speaker 1: see and he had the highest strikeout rate over the

287
00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:08,319
Speaker 1: last four years this past season a thirty two percent

288
00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:12,240
Speaker 1: walk rate was low under three era, so again the

289
00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:14,360
Speaker 1: era may be a bit high, and there's a lot

290
00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:18,439
Speaker 1: of support offensively on this Chris Sale is loved by

291
00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:22,760
Speaker 1: the Steamer projections, whether you love him or not. Number

292
00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:24,640
Speaker 1: four on this list, we are going to go back

293
00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:27,400
Speaker 1: to ATC. It's going to be a lower name. It

294
00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:31,640
Speaker 1: tried to vary the discussion about who projections love is

295
00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:35,040
Speaker 1: as an open can there Joe, because it's like, you know,

296
00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:36,720
Speaker 1: I could go and look and be like, oh man,

297
00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:39,000
Speaker 1: they love this. You know, this guy who's getting fifteen

298
00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:41,760
Speaker 1: numbers and fifteen stolen bases projections love this guy, and

299
00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:44,480
Speaker 1: people might look and be like, that's not really love. Well,

300
00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:49,520
Speaker 1: this is love ATC loves some Xavier Edwards. Xavier Edwards

301
00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:52,840
Speaker 1: with the Marlins projected with a two point eighty one

302
00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:57,280
Speaker 1: batting average, you'll love it. There's one category, thirty six

303
00:14:57,320 --> 00:15:00,480
Speaker 1: stolen bases. That's a lot of stolen bases. I believe

304
00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:02,440
Speaker 1: that was in the top ten or maybe even the

305
00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:06,040
Speaker 1: top five of projected stolen bases and a sub fifteen

306
00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:09,960
Speaker 1: percent k percentage. Seventy runs I'll throw out there as well,

307
00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:13,120
Speaker 1: is nothing to you know, nothing to yell about or

308
00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:15,040
Speaker 1: anything like that. Like it's still good. It's not great,

309
00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:18,520
Speaker 1: it's not horrible, but seventy runs pretty good. That for

310
00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:22,080
Speaker 1: the most part is a two and a half category player.

311
00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:25,400
Speaker 1: But Xavier Edwards has been moving up I think a

312
00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:28,560
Speaker 1: lot of boards in general. He definitely speaks to the

313
00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:31,680
Speaker 1: late stolen base thing that you can do. It's high

314
00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:33,320
Speaker 1: batting average. He's going to hit at the top of

315
00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:35,240
Speaker 1: the lineup. And also, god knows what the Marlins are

316
00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:37,480
Speaker 1: going to do with moving players out there. What do

317
00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:41,160
Speaker 1: you think does ATC love Xavier Edwards enough or is

318
00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:42,040
Speaker 1: it a little too much?

319
00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:46,880
Speaker 2: I think it's probably about right. I think the numbers

320
00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:49,920
Speaker 2: are about right, but I feel like the draft room

321
00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:51,760
Speaker 2: price is not at this point, Like there was a

322
00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:54,480
Speaker 2: draft done. The NFBC lets you filter by like specific

323
00:15:54,520 --> 00:15:56,160
Speaker 2: dates and you can look at specific drafts. He went

324
00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:59,520
Speaker 2: fifty fifth overall in a draft on March second. I

325
00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:02,440
Speaker 2: don't think that that's the regular but there's also plenty

326
00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:04,480
Speaker 2: of dots here inside of the top one hundred picks.

327
00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:09,200
Speaker 2: And I honestly don't really understand the hype to that degree. Like, yes,

328
00:16:09,200 --> 00:16:11,120
Speaker 2: he's a bit of a boost in the batting average department,

329
00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:12,720
Speaker 2: and the stolen bases are going to be great, but

330
00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:16,600
Speaker 2: the power stats really do concern me. When you're getting

331
00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:19,880
Speaker 2: a guy who maybe could hit one or two home runs,

332
00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:22,480
Speaker 2: he's projected from the various systems for anywhere from two

333
00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:25,480
Speaker 2: to about five or six. You could end up with

334
00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:29,360
Speaker 2: a Louis a Rise type player there, albeit with more speed.

335
00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:32,120
Speaker 2: But if you're factoring in the Marlins lineup in there

336
00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:34,080
Speaker 2: as well, so you have to kind of just essentially

337
00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:37,240
Speaker 2: figure you're getting nothing in the counting stats. He's projected

338
00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:42,120
Speaker 2: for like forty RBI and sixty to seventy runs. I

339
00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:44,720
Speaker 2: understand taking him if you are in a build where

340
00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:48,520
Speaker 2: you've taken Kyle Schwarber early, you've taken Petalonzo early, you

341
00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:50,240
Speaker 2: want to try and build up some of that batting

342
00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:53,400
Speaker 2: average and stolen base depth back. But I feel like

343
00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:55,200
Speaker 2: he is somebody. If I'm taking him, I feel like

344
00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:57,120
Speaker 2: I've kind of messed up earlier in the draft, the

345
00:16:57,120 --> 00:16:59,840
Speaker 2: same way with Luis a Rise, and to a lesser extent,

346
00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:02,200
Speaker 2: at Jacob Wilson, like somebody that's just such a specific

347
00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:05,040
Speaker 2: category target. Wilson's going late enough that it doesn't really matter.

348
00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:07,639
Speaker 2: But if Edwards keeps pushing and he's a top one

349
00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:11,240
Speaker 2: hundred ADP, I think that that's crazy town for me.

350
00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:14,280
Speaker 1: Well, I think part of it is because of the

351
00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:16,879
Speaker 1: love on the projection side, And I talked with Ariol

352
00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:19,800
Speaker 1: about Xavier Edwards too. Thinks he's a smashing deal. I

353
00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:22,800
Speaker 1: will say that, like I think Batting average is something

354
00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:25,040
Speaker 1: that you know, there was a time where we were

355
00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:27,080
Speaker 1: all kind of anti batting. You can get rid of that,

356
00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:29,359
Speaker 1: and then now it's something that I'm chasing a little bit.

357
00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:33,280
Speaker 1: I mean, batting average is like clearly going as Homer's

358
00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:36,040
Speaker 1: equate to more run in RBI, batting average is going

359
00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:41,280
Speaker 1: to equate to better RBI run stolen based situations in general,

360
00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:43,639
Speaker 1: that it's just not something that I want to completely

361
00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:46,480
Speaker 1: throw to the side. Stolen bases is not something we

362
00:17:46,520 --> 00:17:49,560
Speaker 1: need to chase as much anymore, but it still has

363
00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:51,639
Speaker 1: its value, especially when you can get it late to

364
00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:54,800
Speaker 1: that degree. And I will tell you runs runs is

365
00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:58,080
Speaker 1: another category that I kind of find myself falling behind

366
00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:01,080
Speaker 1: on that him covering that does does make him a

367
00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:04,320
Speaker 1: little bit more I think of a personal target. But

368
00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:07,359
Speaker 1: to your point, he shows out in these systems, he's

369
00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:09,840
Speaker 1: moving up even more for the class of people that

370
00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:12,080
Speaker 1: are like, I'm not gonna worry about stolen bases, and

371
00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:14,359
Speaker 1: then post one hundred, now I'm gonna worry about it.

372
00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:16,600
Speaker 1: And why don't I get the guy that I'm gonna

373
00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:19,320
Speaker 1: tell you this, thirty six stolen bases looks aggressive, but

374
00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:22,560
Speaker 1: just as a reminder, the guy still thirty one bases

375
00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,760
Speaker 1: in two hundred and sixty five at bats last season,

376
00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:29,000
Speaker 1: so it's not unheard of to think that he could

377
00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:31,760
Speaker 1: go fifty. This is what Xavier Edwards does, and he

378
00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:35,480
Speaker 1: has a really good underlying hit tool. It's funny he

379
00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:37,640
Speaker 1: was a Padre. I was at his pro debut out

380
00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:40,760
Speaker 1: here in Peoria, and it's the same thing always. He

381
00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:43,000
Speaker 1: does not strike out. He puts the bat on the ball.

382
00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:46,680
Speaker 1: He has like a projected sub fifteen percent k percentage.

383
00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:48,919
Speaker 1: He's going to get on base because he walks, so

384
00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:52,040
Speaker 1: it's gonna give him more opportunities to steal. But then

385
00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:54,280
Speaker 1: the valuation thing that you're bringing up, Joe is the

386
00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:57,159
Speaker 1: bigger question. Is he worth inside the top one hundred?

387
00:18:57,320 --> 00:18:59,840
Speaker 1: Probably not. He's a two and a half category at

388
00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:02,760
Speaker 1: best three category player and a little bit of an

389
00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:04,879
Speaker 1: albut or a big albatross as far as Homer's an

390
00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:08,520
Speaker 1: RBI go. But the projections love him and that's why

391
00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:09,840
Speaker 1: he is moving on up.

392
00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:11,720
Speaker 2: Like he might be a slightly better version of Bryce

393
00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:13,600
Speaker 2: ter Rang but it's kind of the same deal.

394
00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:15,560
Speaker 3: You're getting a ton of speed, you're getting a.

395
00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:17,639
Speaker 2: Better batting average with Edwards, but a worse lineup, So

396
00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:19,480
Speaker 2: that's kind of the same type of bil I think

397
00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:22,560
Speaker 2: those like a ria Is to Rang Edwards.

398
00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:24,600
Speaker 3: I think they're all kind of cut from the same cloth.

399
00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:28,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't disagree with that. And really, if like

400
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:31,840
Speaker 1: someone wanted to push Edwards up aggressively, getting a Bryce

401
00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:34,320
Speaker 1: Terrang later might be good, but he didn't pop here

402
00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:37,359
Speaker 1: coming in at number five. We're going to go back

403
00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:39,960
Speaker 1: into the pitching market here, talk about I think a

404
00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:41,760
Speaker 1: very popular pitcher out here, and we're going to look

405
00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:43,840
Speaker 1: at the bat. This is also Derek Cardi system. He's

406
00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:45,800
Speaker 1: got the bat and the bat X bad X obviously

407
00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:47,959
Speaker 1: is more of a hitting one. He doesn't have a

408
00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:50,040
Speaker 1: pitching side to that that is just under the bat.

409
00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:53,919
Speaker 1: And we're going to talk about Philly's starting pitcher, Christopher Sanchez.

410
00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:58,320
Speaker 1: He is being projected with the twelfth most wins, third

411
00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:01,080
Speaker 1: in the league in or twelve wins I'm sorry, third

412
00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:03,119
Speaker 1: in the league and wins. It ended up having him

413
00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:05,600
Speaker 1: to be like ninety, you know, as they project them out,

414
00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:08,159
Speaker 1: it's like couple with fourteen, couple with thirteen, and then

415
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:11,960
Speaker 1: at twelve, so very aggressive win projection. A three point

416
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:16,600
Speaker 1: eighty three ra which is very nice and top thirty

417
00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:20,920
Speaker 1: war among all starting pitchers and aggressive aggressive innings. I

418
00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,320
Speaker 1: think it's over one hundred and eighty. The big thing

419
00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:25,399
Speaker 1: that pops up when you look at ranks and you

420
00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:28,440
Speaker 1: look at values is Christopher Sanchez is probably and they're

421
00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:30,359
Speaker 1: not the only one. I think ATC has it pretty

422
00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:33,760
Speaker 1: aggressive as far as war as well, except the bat

423
00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:35,960
Speaker 1: is a little bit more in the counting side on

424
00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:39,240
Speaker 1: the ra on the win front, there's not a lot

425
00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:41,720
Speaker 1: of strikeouts that are projected. But he has added a

426
00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:43,800
Speaker 1: cutter or he's adding a cutter in this year that

427
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 1: a lot field. This could up that strikeout range and

428
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 1: if that does, it changes the whole scope of it.

429
00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:51,840
Speaker 1: And Chris Sanchez is being drafted. I don't have his

430
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:53,480
Speaker 1: ADP in front of me. Maybe you have it, Joe,

431
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:56,000
Speaker 1: but I want to say it's like, it's definitely outside

432
00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:58,320
Speaker 1: the top forty and it might be outside the top fifty.

433
00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:02,119
Speaker 1: But many projects systems we're just specifically picking on the

434
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 1: bat really love Christopher Sanchez. So what do you think?

435
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 2: So all pitchers on the NFBC this also includes relievers

436
00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:11,439
Speaker 2: in there, but he's the sixty seventh pitcher off the

437
00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:13,800
Speaker 2: board overall, I can't imagine.

438
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:17,040
Speaker 1: So that's probably like forty five at SP something like that.

439
00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:18,520
Speaker 1: So outside the top forty.

440
00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 2: Which I think is gold, absolute gold, I'll take him

441
00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:23,600
Speaker 2: every time that he's still sitting there. He's a great

442
00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:26,520
Speaker 2: stabilizer if you've taken some guys who are maybe the

443
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:29,400
Speaker 2: highest strikeout riskier types earlier in the draft, if you've

444
00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:31,879
Speaker 2: taken a Blake Snell, if you've taken a Dyllan c

445
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,240
Speaker 2: Saidjaob de Gram. I think that Sanchez is a really

446
00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:37,800
Speaker 2: nice pairing who's a really safe innings guy. That era

447
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,480
Speaker 2: should be very safe. The change up and the cutter,

448
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:43,600
Speaker 2: even with the slider, was really good. But adding a

449
00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:46,359
Speaker 2: cutter to go along with the change up and that slider,

450
00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:48,480
Speaker 2: I think should be really really good for him.

451
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:50,199
Speaker 3: Innings aren't any kind of concern.

452
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:53,399
Speaker 2: The only concern with Sanchez is that you're not getting

453
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:55,639
Speaker 2: a ton of strikeouts. He's probably going to be somewhere

454
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 2: in the twenty ish percent range. Maybe he can push

455
00:21:57,920 --> 00:21:59,959
Speaker 2: up to twenty two as long as you've taken care

456
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:03,200
Speaker 2: that though, I think that there are not many better

457
00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:05,800
Speaker 2: options in this range, not just for pitchers but for

458
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:08,680
Speaker 2: any players going around pick one seventy to one eighty

459
00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 2: than Chris Sanchez.

460
00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 3: He's one of my favorite targets this year.

461
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:14,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think what's so nice about this is

462
00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:19,359
Speaker 1: projections have him popping. His cost is still pretty low.

463
00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 1: And also you know that when you talk about that

464
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:26,199
Speaker 1: median side of the projection, I just want to point out, like,

465
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:28,560
Speaker 1: you know, three eight ERA or whatever, like he's beat

466
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:30,199
Speaker 1: that two straight years. You know you had a three

467
00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:33,320
Speaker 1: three two ERA this past season. Doesn't walk a lot,

468
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:37,400
Speaker 1: doesn't strike out a lot. Maybe he's kind of wu ish,

469
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:40,680
Speaker 1: but he's going after WU and there's some higher strikeout potential.

470
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:45,119
Speaker 1: So Chris Sanchez pops on many of these systems. Specifically,

471
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 1: just picked out the bat because of the wins because

472
00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:49,720
Speaker 1: again I think ATC was a little bit lower, but

473
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 1: he pops on both of those systems. So a late

474
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:54,920
Speaker 1: target for you guys, especially if you're going to pay

475
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 1: attention to these projections. We got more coming up, but

476
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:00,920
Speaker 1: first I want to tell you guys about the Draft Assistant.

477
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,760
Speaker 1: Use the Draft Assistant to make the best decisions during

478
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 1: your fantasy drafts this season. It connects directly to your

479
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 1: draft and provides both real time pick suggestions and estimations

480
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 1: on which players might get taken before your next pick.

481
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:18,720
Speaker 1: The Draft Assistant fully integrates your customized cheat sheets and

482
00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:22,439
Speaker 1: suggests picks based on your rankings, team build, ADP and

483
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 1: other factors. Experience a smarter way to draft a Fantasypros

484
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 1: dot Com slash assistant or on the MLB Draft Wizard app. Again,

485
00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:36,359
Speaker 1: Fantasypros dot Com slash Assistant do it today make drafting

486
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:38,439
Speaker 1: a little bit easier, and you can also set those up.

487
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:41,520
Speaker 1: You could have, like you know, a Welshin Arico rank

488
00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:43,959
Speaker 1: build to help you as far as it's going. If

489
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:45,600
Speaker 1: you want to see what way. I can't imagine what

490
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 1: our ranks would look like together, but there's probably It'll

491
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:50,600
Speaker 1: definitely want you to draft Errett Crochet. I'll tell you

492
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:52,440
Speaker 1: that I don't know about the others. So there's actually

493
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:54,199
Speaker 1: another guy in this list. We'll talk about that. I

494
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 1: think you and I both agree on all right, some

495
00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:58,400
Speaker 1: of these names are going to get kind of fun.

496
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:01,680
Speaker 1: There's some big names any here with some big questions,

497
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:04,119
Speaker 1: and this one is right there. We are going to

498
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 1: go to Steamer for number six. Luise Robert. I did

499
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:12,480
Speaker 1: an episode on In This League with Ario Cohen talking

500
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:16,200
Speaker 1: about projections and I picked on Luise Robert because he

501
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:18,679
Speaker 1: pops on their system. He pops on a lot of

502
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:21,480
Speaker 1: systems coming off of a really bad batting average year,

503
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:25,919
Speaker 1: but none like Steamer where after that season with the

504
00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:28,359
Speaker 1: White Sox and they're not going to build in a

505
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 1: presumed trade. He has projected twenty nine homers, twenty seven

506
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 1: stolen bases, eighty four run and eighty four RBI. Believe

507
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:40,880
Speaker 1: the average is back into the two forty range. These

508
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 1: are all boosts off of last year. He did steal

509
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:46,359
Speaker 1: a bunch of bases. Even in the bad contact that

510
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:49,160
Speaker 1: Luise Robert made, he still put up like a season

511
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 1: that was paired with just you know, garbage batting average.

512
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:54,639
Speaker 1: Most of these systems decently like it because they are

513
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:58,720
Speaker 1: looking over a couple years, but again, none like Steamer.

514
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:02,399
Speaker 1: And he's going post seventy five in some instances. I

515
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 1: think he's outside the top one hundred. There's some big,

516
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,199
Speaker 1: big counting stats. He's kind of the anti like what

517
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 1: you looked at with Xavier Edwards. You're like, man, he

518
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 1: covers these three categories that are a little bit tougher,

519
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 1: but then he's in albatross. But he's got that safety.

520
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 1: Luis Robert is like, these are monster numbers across the board,

521
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:24,639
Speaker 1: but the volatility is wild with Luis Robert here. So

522
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:27,120
Speaker 1: what do you think about Robert and the Steamer projection.

523
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 2: He's not somebody that I generally like to land on.

524
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:33,880
Speaker 2: It's not that I'm like super ant.

525
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:34,879
Speaker 1: You don't like thirty thirty.

526
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 3: That's the thing.

527
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,320
Speaker 2: If he hits the projection, if you just put him

528
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:41,960
Speaker 2: into a player raider, he's projected higher. If you're using Steamer,

529
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 2: he's projected better than Tascar Hernandez, better than Anthony Santander,

530
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:48,360
Speaker 2: better than Brian, better than Wyatt Langford and James Wood

531
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:50,880
Speaker 2: and Breton Doyle and a lot of others. But I'm

532
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 2: not sure how much I really buy it, Like the

533
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:54,879
Speaker 2: whole three year waiting thing. I know we have to

534
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:55,159
Speaker 2: do it.

535
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:55,679
Speaker 3: We have to.

536
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 2: We can't just look at the most recent sample size

537
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:00,399
Speaker 2: and ignore everything else. But when you look at the

538
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:03,680
Speaker 2: situation in Chicago, Luis Robert down the stretch last season

539
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:05,640
Speaker 2: did not seem like he cared about playing baseball.

540
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 3: It was atrocious. It was really bad.

541
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 2: And I've heard that talking point of all like last

542
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,360
Speaker 2: year they were historically bad, Like nothing's changed, if anything,

543
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:14,680
Speaker 2: they've gotten worse. So is Luis Robert gonna all of

544
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,399
Speaker 2: a sudden be like invigorated to play baseball again for

545
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:20,040
Speaker 2: the projected fifty two win White Sox. I don't know

546
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,199
Speaker 2: about that. So I think from that standpoint, we have

547
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:25,160
Speaker 2: to worry a little bit because, like as somebody who

548
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:27,119
Speaker 2: had him in a couple of leagues last year, he

549
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:29,359
Speaker 2: was getting dropped like he wasn't even just somebody you benched,

550
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,440
Speaker 2: like he was droppable down the stretch. If he's still

551
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 2: in the White Sox, then it's gonna be a bit

552
00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 2: hard for me personally to invest the projections. I understand,

553
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:39,920
Speaker 2: because they're capturing twenty twenty three, and if he played

554
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 2: a full season last year, you know you're probably looking

555
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 2: at twenty something homers and thirty something steals. Like the

556
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 2: raw talent is there, but there's been a lot of

557
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 2: injuries over the years. He's only surpassed that over one

558
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 2: hundred game mark one time in twenty twenty three. Last

559
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 2: year he hit it exactly on, so I guess you

560
00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:55,959
Speaker 2: can count that if you want, but there's a lot

561
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 2: of risk here from a number of standpoints. He started

562
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:00,919
Speaker 2: striking out like crazy last year thirty three percent of

563
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 2: the time. The swinging strike rate was very high as well,

564
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 2: seventeen and a half percent. There are reasons to be

565
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 2: concerned here. If I hear that Luis Robert gets traded

566
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:11,120
Speaker 2: to the Phillies or something, or get traded to.

567
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:13,200
Speaker 3: The Astros or whoever, or Atlanta.

568
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:15,680
Speaker 2: Atlanta, Like, I am going to be a lot more

569
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:18,840
Speaker 2: interested as of right now. He's not somebody that I'm

570
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 2: that interested in, but I understand it based on the

571
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 2: projections for sure.

572
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean to point out like prior to last

573
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:28,480
Speaker 1: year he had hit two sixty four higher the previous

574
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 1: two seasons. He came off of a thirty eight twenty season.

575
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 1: There's an argument to be said to be said, especially

576
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:36,960
Speaker 1: when you do wait over a couple of years, that

577
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 1: last year might have been more of the outlier. The

578
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:42,920
Speaker 1: strikeout rate was absurd, but it was rising the previous

579
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:46,240
Speaker 1: year as well. He kind of bounces around in how

580
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:48,199
Speaker 1: well he barrels, and I think it does speak to

581
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:50,959
Speaker 1: maybe a little bit more the mental game and like

582
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:53,760
Speaker 1: what where was his involvement? Will he check back out?

583
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 1: I do think last year was a little bit different.

584
00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:57,679
Speaker 1: Spent a lot of time in the rookie ball and

585
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 1: trying to build back up. But you know he's an

586
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:03,399
Speaker 1: injury away, which he's proven to have that from maybe

587
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 1: you know, losing interest again and you know, another twenty

588
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:10,399
Speaker 1: straight games of losing from losing interest in playing, and

589
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 1: he'd have to be traded to kind of keep that.

590
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, there's some loud

591
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:18,400
Speaker 1: counting stats that are out there. If the batting average

592
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 1: comes back to where it's been, I don't think there's

593
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:24,919
Speaker 1: a question of this being a value. I don't, I

594
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:26,920
Speaker 1: really don't. And I think there's quite a few guys

595
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:28,680
Speaker 1: that the next guy we're going to talk about as well.

596
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:33,640
Speaker 1: You know, games played to their production is always kind

597
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 1: of the big the big question, Luis Robert. As long

598
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,880
Speaker 1: as the batting average is there, we're going to be okay,

599
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 1: let's go to the next guy. This guy, this is

600
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 1: the first time we're looking at the it's the we

601
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 1: call it oopsie, right, that's how it's spelled. This is

602
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:49,920
Speaker 1: the oopsie projection. This is a new one that is

603
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:53,480
Speaker 1: on over on fangraphs. And we are going to talk

604
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:58,479
Speaker 1: about Mike Trout. Yes, Mike Trout, who is a major

605
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:02,160
Speaker 1: question to everybody you know, he's off of list for

606
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 1: some people, he's undraftable. He can't stay healthy this year.

607
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:08,680
Speaker 1: You know, he's obviously had a lot of time to recoup.

608
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 1: He's going to be playing right field. We'll see if

609
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 1: there's even some dh He changed up some of his

610
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 1: routine in the off season to try to keep that

611
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:19,640
Speaker 1: back healthy. We'll see, you know, if some butts with

612
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 1: Mike Trout. But there is no system that is more

613
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 1: aggressive on Mike Trout this year than the Oopsie projection system.

614
00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:27,920
Speaker 1: And you had kind of mention they're a little bit

615
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:30,960
Speaker 1: more Pollyanna on it, which I think is okay because

616
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:33,680
Speaker 1: Mike Trout is going outside the top one hundred. Yet

617
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 1: Oopsie projects him at a two sixty seven batting average,

618
00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 1: thirty two homers, ten stolen bases, eighty five runs, and

619
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty games played. And really probably the

620
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 1: only thing that gets anybody like scoffing is one hundred

621
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 1: and twenty games, none of those other numbers, because Mike

622
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 1: Trout he's incredible when he's out there. I mean, the

623
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 1: batting average sunk a little bit last year, but he

624
00:29:57,040 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 1: was off to some crazy home run out But we

625
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 1: don't know how he'll run, even though Ron Washington loves

626
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:05,480
Speaker 1: to run, we don't know that with his health, and

627
00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 1: we just don't know how many games are going to

628
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 1: go out there. But I find it hard to avoid

629
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 1: Mike Trout outside the top one hundred, not just because

630
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 1: of this projection system, but I do think that even

631
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 1: in one hundred games, with Trout's ability, he can still

632
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 1: kind of overcome that he can be a value at

633
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 1: one hundred, even if he plays on the low end.

634
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 1: But blah, blah blah, what do you think? I mean,

635
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 1: I can talk as positive that came about Mike Trout here,

636
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 1: but we know at the end of the day what

637
00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 1: we're going to be able to argue against. What do

638
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 1: you think of Oopsie's projection on Mike Trout?

639
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 2: So I really like Jordan Rosenbloom. I want to say

640
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 2: this first off, I really like Jordan. He's a really

641
00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 2: smart guy.

642
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 1: But this always leads to a really really positive comment.

643
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 1: You're going to I like Jordan as well, by the way,

644
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 1: but I'm going to keep with the positive go.

645
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:54,160
Speaker 2: Ahead, But I think the projections are a little too rosy,

646
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 2: not just for Mike Trout. I think they're a little

647
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 2: bit too Rosy in general, Like I think Aaron Judge

648
00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 2: is projected for fifty nine home runs. Fifty home runs, like,

649
00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:03,000
Speaker 2: that's not a fiftieth percentile projection.

650
00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 3: It's just not.

651
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:05,680
Speaker 2: And I think that that's where some people will get

652
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 2: caught up and seeing the different projections and then being like,

653
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:09,480
Speaker 2: oh my god, look at Mike Trout on Oopsy or

654
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 2: look at whoever on Oopsy, And I think it's a

655
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 2: little bit ambitious sometimes, whether we're talking about the games played,

656
00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 2: we're talking about the raid stats, the raw numbers, like,

657
00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 2: I think all of it is is a bit too optimistic.

658
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 2: But that being said, if Mike Trout plays one hundred

659
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:26,320
Speaker 2: and twenty games, this is probably roughly what the line

660
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 2: is going to look like. I think the main problem

661
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 2: with me with the Oopsy Trout projection is the games played.

662
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 2: And it's not just Jordan there because Steamer's got him

663
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 2: for one twenty, Zips has him for one twenty, but

664
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:39,120
Speaker 2: I think expecting that at this point is probably not

665
00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:41,320
Speaker 2: two wise. He's combined for one hundred and twenty games

666
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:43,959
Speaker 2: over the last couple of seasons combined. I don't know

667
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 2: that I want him to run like Ron Washington likes

668
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 2: to run. Generally speaking, Trout stole six bases over twenty

669
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:50,200
Speaker 2: nine games last year.

670
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:51,600
Speaker 3: I don't want him to run.

671
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:53,960
Speaker 2: At this point, I'll happily sacrifice the stolen bases to

672
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 2: keep Mike Trout healthy. If the give off is ten

673
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:58,520
Speaker 2: or twelve steals and then I have to sacrifice fifty

674
00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:00,760
Speaker 2: games because of that, like, I'll just take the extra games.

675
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 2: But I think he's still somebody that I have some

676
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:06,240
Speaker 2: interest in. It's hard to be completely out on him.

677
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:08,440
Speaker 2: He's the hitter version of Jacob de Grom. If things

678
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:10,400
Speaker 2: do go right for him, that he could be a

679
00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:12,600
Speaker 2: first round player. But I think that the odds of

680
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 2: it happening for Mike Trout at this point are very low.

681
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:17,680
Speaker 2: I think the Angels lineup is a bit better than

682
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 2: people might think. But at the same time, Trout is

683
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 2: fairly expensive still, and if you're playing like underdog best balls,

684
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 2: he's even more expensive. People are more pushing him up

685
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 2: in points league. So I have a couple of shares.

686
00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:31,600
Speaker 2: I have a couple of shares where it was like tenth,

687
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 2: eleventh round and a fifteen teamer, and at that point, okay,

688
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 2: I'll take a chance on him. But for the average player.

689
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 2: I think that he's he's a lot riskier, Like if

690
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 2: you're playing in one league this season, if you're just

691
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 2: in one fantasy league, I don't know that i'd want

692
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:44,920
Speaker 2: to recommend taking Mike Trout.

693
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:46,120
Speaker 3: Yeah.

694
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:47,840
Speaker 1: The only thing I disagree with is I kind of

695
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 1: feel like you're either just enter out like you can't.

696
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 1: I mean, obviously you can't. I don't want to speak

697
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 1: in exacts, but like, for the most part, you are

698
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 1: either like, well, these projections are so great, and his

699
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 1: cost now is it's so low that like the only

700
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 1: thing that will defeat this is him having like fifty

701
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:08,680
Speaker 1: games played, you know, fifty games played destroys that. But

702
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 1: if he does play one hundred, the one hundred baseline,

703
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna beat the value of this. And

704
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:17,560
Speaker 1: the other end is like he'll just never play. It

705
00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 1: doesn't matter. I don't want him. It's kind of the

706
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 1: Jacob de Grom thing. It's like you're either in or

707
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 1: you're out. At the end of the day. The projection

708
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 1: doesn't do a lot for me, you know, because it's

709
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 1: like the question is not about his talent when he's

710
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 1: out there, it's about him being out there. That's its

711
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:33,960
Speaker 1: exact same argument as Jacob de Grom. It's not the

712
00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:36,800
Speaker 1: question of his production, it's a question of him being

713
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:39,160
Speaker 1: out there. Can he stay out there? Can the weight

714
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:43,640
Speaker 1: loss that Trout did whatever swing to try to keep

715
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 1: the bat going playing in right field? Will any of

716
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 1: those things do anything? Maybe the best part about it, though,

717
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 1: is it is the lowest cost that it's ever been.

718
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:55,560
Speaker 1: And if you're looking for any confirmation to that feeling,

719
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:58,400
Speaker 1: Oopsie is a projection that is telling you, hey, these

720
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 1: are Taoscar numbers. These are essentially Taoscar, Hernandez numbers. You're

721
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:04,760
Speaker 1: getting Taoscar's going around like the fifties, and Trout's going

722
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:07,360
Speaker 1: outside the top one hundred. Sometimes later he gets pushed up.

723
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:10,880
Speaker 1: Maybe it's a question, but the Oopsie projection absolutely loves

724
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 1: Mike Trout. Going back to ATC, we're gonna talk about

725
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:19,320
Speaker 1: a rookie Dylan Cruz. It is tough to find rookies

726
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:24,080
Speaker 1: that are like heavily projected well in any projection system.

727
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 1: Years and years ago, I remember rookie Vladimir Guerrero was

728
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 1: projected like the highest batting average. But it's more often

729
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:33,400
Speaker 1: than non projections are going to really underplay and then

730
00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 1: everybody gets really mad. That is not the case here

731
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:39,800
Speaker 1: with this rookie Dylan Cruz, who is still technically prospect

732
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 1: eligible on ATC. The batting average doesn't jump out to you.

733
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:47,840
Speaker 1: It's two forty four, but he is essentially projected for

734
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:52,800
Speaker 1: a fifteen thirty season fifteen homers, twenty eight stolen bases,

735
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 1: sixty nine runs, and sixty one RBI. There's some variants

736
00:34:57,640 --> 00:34:59,839
Speaker 1: in there where he's hitting in the order. He hit

737
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:03,080
Speaker 1: lead off a ton for Washington when he was up.

738
00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 1: We'll see where that goes this season. But a few

739
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:09,440
Speaker 1: notches positive here or there. You're now talking about a

740
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:12,720
Speaker 1: guy that is fifteen thirty. Maybe he pushes eighty runs

741
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:15,960
Speaker 1: and the value is exponentially high. Again, this is a

742
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:18,959
Speaker 1: guy that's outside the one twenty five. I'm not looking

743
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 1: at it right now. Depends on the ADP you're looking at.

744
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:23,320
Speaker 1: But this is guy well outside the top one hundred

745
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:27,520
Speaker 1: that is heavily, heavily projected on ATC for a very

746
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:30,160
Speaker 1: strong season, and that maybe leads to some more upside.

747
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 1: What do you think about ATC's projection on Dylan.

748
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 3: Cruz feels about right.

749
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:37,879
Speaker 2: The number is getting more expensive if I just sort

750
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:40,440
Speaker 2: by the last two weeks for Dylan Cruz, the ADP

751
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:43,440
Speaker 2: is one fifteen, so he is starting to rise a

752
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:45,960
Speaker 2: little bit and and I understand it. He's the guy

753
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:48,400
Speaker 2: that I've landed on a few times, more so earlier

754
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:50,279
Speaker 2: in draft season when it was one forty one to

755
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:53,160
Speaker 2: fifty price. Now I think I'd probably still buy in,

756
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 2: but definitely more appealing a couple rounds later.

757
00:35:55,800 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 1: Do you think fifteen thirty, Like, does a fifteen thirty

758
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:03,000
Speaker 1: season put you as a guy that should be top

759
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:05,560
Speaker 1: one hundred, Like, what's the marker that is making him

760
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 1: too expensive based on his stat line?

761
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 2: I think when you're looking at the batting average projections,

762
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:13,280
Speaker 2: when you're looking at the counting stats, if that's getting

763
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:16,400
Speaker 2: inside of the top one hundred, and there's some systems

764
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 2: that are calling for And again, like projections for young

765
00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:23,360
Speaker 2: guys are usually a little bit off. Prospects don't usually

766
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 2: get captured fully because there's just not as much data.

767
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:28,400
Speaker 2: But I think with Dylan Cruz, if he ends up

768
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:30,239
Speaker 2: going like let's say that price goes up and he's

769
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:33,239
Speaker 2: going exactly a pick one hundred, and then I'm taking

770
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 2: any of these systems at face value, that means I'm

771
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:38,799
Speaker 2: not getting seventy RBI. That means that I might get

772
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:43,000
Speaker 2: seventy runs, fifteen homers, twenty some odds deals with a

773
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:45,279
Speaker 2: batting average that's not going to hurt or help me.

774
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:47,799
Speaker 2: I think in the one fifty range, I really like them.

775
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:49,440
Speaker 2: I think that that's where you take a chance on

776
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:51,920
Speaker 2: the upside, pushing top one hundred when there are a

777
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:53,960
Speaker 2: couple categories that do worry me a little bit. I

778
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:55,880
Speaker 2: don't think the lineup is amazing. I think it's I

779
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:57,880
Speaker 2: think it's a good lineup, but I think there are

780
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 2: still some questions. I think that he's somebody that if

781
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 2: the price continues to jump up, I'm going to probably

782
00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:05,360
Speaker 2: stay away. But you probably won't see him jump up

783
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:07,400
Speaker 2: quite as much in other formats like let me just

784
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:10,840
Speaker 2: pull up the Fantasy pros Consensus ADP. It's probably lower

785
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 2: because a lot of the time, if you're talking about

786
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:17,200
Speaker 2: NFBC leagues, people are shooting for upside. So I'm going

787
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:18,799
Speaker 2: to pull it up here, Chris, I'm going to talk

788
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 2: for a quick second.

789
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:22,600
Speaker 1: Well, I was gonna say, I think, well, I think

790
00:37:22,640 --> 00:37:24,200
Speaker 1: a lot with a lot of those one system can

791
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 1: bring it down. But Dylan Cruz still suffers from, you know,

792
00:37:29,600 --> 00:37:33,760
Speaker 1: some potential potholes if you will, like you know, slider

793
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:35,719
Speaker 1: chasing and stuff like that as far as where his

794
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:37,520
Speaker 1: batting average is going to go. But do want to

795
00:37:37,560 --> 00:37:40,040
Speaker 1: point out he only two eighteen last year had an

796
00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:43,520
Speaker 1: expected batting average of two point fifty three, so that

797
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:46,720
Speaker 1: two fifty range, obviously projections are laying a little bit lower.

798
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 1: If you get to the two fifty two sixty range.

799
00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 1: That's a difference between Dylan Cruz being outside the top

800
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:54,520
Speaker 1: one hundred and probably being a top seventy five player.

801
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 2: So by our consensus ADP, it's one thirty three, and

802
00:37:57,719 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 2: I think that's that's a good price. Than that, I

803
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 2: get a little bit worried, but that is I think

804
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:04,680
Speaker 2: a good range. If you're getting him in the ninth

805
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:07,040
Speaker 2: round or even the eighth round of a fifteen teamer,

806
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:09,160
Speaker 2: or if you're talking about like the eleventh round of

807
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 2: a twelve teamer, I think that's a really good price.

808
00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 1: Room two more players here, and we are gonna we

809
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:17,120
Speaker 1: got one hitter and one pitcher. This is another hitter.

810
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 1: I think you and I can both agree on. This

811
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:21,400
Speaker 1: is a very early early bounce back guy. For me,

812
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:23,319
Speaker 1: and I think you are with it. We are going

813
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:25,680
Speaker 1: to go to Steamer projections and we're going to look

814
00:38:25,680 --> 00:38:30,040
Speaker 1: at Toronto Blue Jays Bobaschhett, Bobachett coming off of clearly

815
00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:34,160
Speaker 1: just a bad season. I tend to think, and I

816
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 1: gotta be careful about it, because there's a couple guys

817
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:37,560
Speaker 1: that I've looked at and it's like, man, the seasons

818
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:40,320
Speaker 1: were so bad, they feel more Those feel more outlier

819
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:43,279
Speaker 1: based on the skill set than it does the new

820
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:47,839
Speaker 1: norm little bit Luise Robert, but definitely in my mind

821
00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:52,320
Speaker 1: it has been Bobaschett. Some projections obviously have some bounce backs,

822
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:55,600
Speaker 1: but the most aggressive has been Steamer projecting him almost

823
00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:58,520
Speaker 1: at a two to eighty average, two seventy nine, twenty

824
00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 1: one homers, eleven stolen in eighty six runs. It's fair

825
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 1: to say if he goes twenty ten with that high

826
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 1: batting average and those runs, he is going to more

827
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 1: than recoup the value. The question is going to be,

828
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 1: you know, Steamer gets a little Pollyanna, maybe like how

829
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:19,239
Speaker 1: oopsie is you're talking about? You know, is this a

830
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 1: little bit overplayed because some of the other atc in

831
00:39:21,640 --> 00:39:23,359
Speaker 1: the bat I think are playing it down a little

832
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:25,640
Speaker 1: bit because some of the skill sets have changed on

833
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:27,920
Speaker 1: Boba Schett. But I'm buying back in. I know you're

834
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:30,000
Speaker 1: buying back in. What do you think of Steamer's twenty

835
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 1: ten eighty six runs and a two eighty average projection?

836
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 2: Love it as a whole, but I'm not buying into

837
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 2: the speed anymore. I think the speed is not gone.

838
00:39:39,160 --> 00:39:41,320
Speaker 2: But if you look at like the stat cast sprint speed,

839
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 2: he's below the fiftieth percentile, and that's something that has

840
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:46,320
Speaker 2: been trending in the wrong direction for a couple of years.

841
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:48,680
Speaker 2: He's still twenty five bases in his breakout season, then

842
00:39:48,719 --> 00:39:50,719
Speaker 2: every year's progressively gone down. I think that you can

843
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:54,120
Speaker 2: probably count on him for a handful of steals, whether

844
00:39:54,160 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 2: it's five or eight or four or nine, like it's

845
00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:57,920
Speaker 2: gonna be somewhere in that range. If he gets the

846
00:39:57,920 --> 00:39:59,920
Speaker 2: double digits, I'd be pretty surprised. But I think the

847
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:02,960
Speaker 2: adding average is a huge, huge bounce back potential to

848
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:04,799
Speaker 2: go along with the big power. We saw him hit

849
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:07,400
Speaker 2: a ball out of the stadium yesterday spring training. I

850
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:08,719
Speaker 2: don't want to read too much into it. I'm not

851
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:10,799
Speaker 2: even sure who was on the mound, so you never

852
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:14,319
Speaker 2: know in spring training, but it's a positive sign. I

853
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:16,279
Speaker 2: think that he's not a guy who is a risk

854
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:19,680
Speaker 2: from a profile standpoint. The injuries are a little bit concerning,

855
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:22,759
Speaker 2: but we're talking about a guy who's twenty five has

856
00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:23,960
Speaker 2: even turned twenty six years old.

857
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:26,279
Speaker 3: You know, he's twenty six years old. Excuse me, who

858
00:40:26,680 --> 00:40:29,000
Speaker 3: was a fantasy star for three seasons.

859
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:31,200
Speaker 2: He has a bad, injury plagued year, and now the

860
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:33,680
Speaker 2: price has gone down by like ten rounds. That's an

861
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:36,120
Speaker 2: easy buyback for me. I am a Blue Jays fan.

862
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:38,920
Speaker 2: You guys know this, but leaving the Homer bias at

863
00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 2: the door, I still think, Bobah, that's a great pick

864
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:40,920
Speaker 2: this year.

865
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's some dramatic things that changed again that feel,

866
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:48,279
Speaker 1: and it could be the start of a completely offset

867
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 1: skill set, you know, where everything is changing. But like,

868
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:54,960
Speaker 1: he was essentially like a nine barrel percent guy his

869
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:57,320
Speaker 1: entire career and then it dipped down to four percent.

870
00:40:57,719 --> 00:41:01,520
Speaker 1: To me, that's kind of an anomaly. The hard hit

871
00:41:01,640 --> 00:41:04,600
Speaker 1: rate has kind of had a steady drop, but it

872
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:08,719
Speaker 1: still didn't go to some crazy, crazy worrisome range. The

873
00:41:08,840 --> 00:41:10,880
Speaker 1: k's stayed the same, the walk stayed the same, and

874
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:13,319
Speaker 1: one of the weirdest things is he has always hit

875
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:16,399
Speaker 1: lefties well. As a matter of fact, up until this

876
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 1: past season, he had never hit under two sixty against

877
00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:24,240
Speaker 1: left handed pitchers. He hit one sixty this past season,

878
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:27,799
Speaker 1: one sixty, one hundred points lower than he had ever

879
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 1: done in his entire career. So I think there's a

880
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 1: couple elements you can take a look at with Bobashet

881
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:35,319
Speaker 1: and you can say this probably isn't going to hold.

882
00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 1: By the way, almost seventy point difference in his lower

883
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:44,480
Speaker 1: babbit than his career babbit and almost one hundred points

884
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:46,839
Speaker 1: year over year, So there's some bad luck in there.

885
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:49,960
Speaker 1: Maybe things don't change, but it's a really good buybacked

886
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:52,399
Speaker 1: potential projections are there, and maybe it's because of three

887
00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:55,719
Speaker 1: year averages, but I love the Steamer projection on Bobaschet

888
00:41:55,960 --> 00:42:00,239
Speaker 1: and he's a risk worth taking that low. The final one,

889
00:42:00,680 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 1: we are gonna go back to Oopsy and this is

890
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:06,440
Speaker 1: just a fun one that I found here. It is

891
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:08,600
Speaker 1: a You're not eagle, never guess the guy that I

892
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:10,080
Speaker 1: was going to put on this list, because we've had

893
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 1: some big names here. It's a starting pitcher with the

894
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:15,960
Speaker 1: New York Mets, Clay Holmes, who is going to be

895
00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 1: his starting pitcher this year. Oopsy has him projected as

896
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:25,600
Speaker 1: the eleventh lowest ra among starting pitchers at three to two.

897
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:29,680
Speaker 1: I will say there might be some convolutedness in it

898
00:42:29,719 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 1: because it's got him pitching a whole lot of it

899
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:35,240
Speaker 1: hasn't projected for like twenty three starts, but then pitching

900
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:37,920
Speaker 1: some relief games. He is set to stretch out to

901
00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:40,759
Speaker 1: be a starter this year, Yet the projection also has

902
00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 1: him three So I said three two ERA one hundred

903
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:45,759
Speaker 1: and sixty four innings with a nine to three to

904
00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:49,200
Speaker 1: two k per nine. The reason why this is relative

905
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:51,200
Speaker 1: is this is one of those guys that is free

906
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:53,760
Speaker 1: ninety nine. This is a free guy in most drafts

907
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 1: that is not being drafted. Oopsy is absolutely through the roof.

908
00:42:56,960 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 1: They're kind of giving him the Michael kingtree. So what

909
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:03,759
Speaker 1: do you think here, mister Joe Rico on Clay Holmes.

910
00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 2: That's the thing is the Michael King comps. And I

911
00:43:07,239 --> 00:43:12,359
Speaker 2: understand it like reliever going to starter, But Michael King

912
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:15,880
Speaker 2: is one of the better pitchers in baseball, and I

913
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:17,839
Speaker 2: don't think that Clay Holmes is going to get there

914
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:20,879
Speaker 2: this year. I'm intrigued about the change up, he needs

915
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 2: another pitch. Just having two pitches as a starter is

916
00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:26,360
Speaker 2: not going to really fly. But if you're looking at

917
00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:29,120
Speaker 2: the projections and the innings in particular, like the last

918
00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:32,080
Speaker 2: three years for clay homes, like Clockwork sixty three, sixty three,

919
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:35,200
Speaker 2: sixty three innings, you know Zips has them for one

920
00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:39,160
Speaker 2: seventy three Oopsy won sixty four. Those are massive jumps.

921
00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:41,719
Speaker 2: And also when they're not talking about any change in

922
00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 2: strikeout rate, like they're projecting Oopsy a twenty three point

923
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:47,760
Speaker 2: eight percent strikeout rate coming from a twenty five percent

924
00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:51,240
Speaker 2: strikeout rate, I think that that's a little bit bold

925
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:52,920
Speaker 2: to expect that he's going to have an innings jump

926
00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:56,239
Speaker 2: of one hundred while maintaining the same strikeout rate, maybe

927
00:43:56,320 --> 00:43:59,160
Speaker 2: boosting the walk right up a little bit, and also

928
00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 2: giving you a three to eer like. I think that

929
00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:04,360
Speaker 2: we're probably hoping for a little bit too much, and

930
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:05,719
Speaker 2: he might be one of the guys this year that

931
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:07,920
Speaker 2: gets overhyped and then he'll get pushed up a lot,

932
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:09,480
Speaker 2: like because like you said, the price right now is

933
00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:12,160
Speaker 2: non existent. People start to see he's adding a kick

934
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:13,880
Speaker 2: change and he has a couple of good spring outings

935
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:14,959
Speaker 2: and then he's shooting.

936
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:15,360
Speaker 3: Up ten rounds.

937
00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:18,560
Speaker 2: That's where I get concerned right now. And this rangery's

938
00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:20,799
Speaker 2: going no problem at all taking a chance. I've done

939
00:44:20,840 --> 00:44:23,239
Speaker 2: it myself a couple times this year. But as people

940
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:25,360
Speaker 2: start to get more excited, as people start to start

941
00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:28,120
Speaker 2: watching these shows and getting back into the spring training routine,

942
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:30,200
Speaker 2: I feel like the hype train is going to leave

943
00:44:30,239 --> 00:44:33,319
Speaker 2: the station before Clay Holmes is actually fully ready to

944
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:34,120
Speaker 2: be an elite starter.

945
00:44:34,200 --> 00:44:36,040
Speaker 3: I think next year will be a big year.

946
00:44:36,040 --> 00:44:37,400
Speaker 2: If Clay Holmes is able to get to like one

947
00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:39,879
Speaker 2: twenty one to thirty this year with success, and then

948
00:44:39,920 --> 00:44:41,800
Speaker 2: next year he can jump to one sixty one seventy,

949
00:44:41,840 --> 00:44:43,160
Speaker 2: That's kind of what I'm looking for here.

950
00:44:44,080 --> 00:44:45,920
Speaker 1: Well, I'm not sure his ADP is ever going to

951
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:48,200
Speaker 1: jump to a range that's going to make him not draftable,

952
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 1: so he might be worth the shot he I mean,

953
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:52,719
Speaker 1: it's not like Michael King. You know, I was very,

954
00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:54,920
Speaker 1: very very heavy on Michael King last year, and he

955
00:44:55,000 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 1: kept going up and up and up, and obviously now

956
00:44:57,239 --> 00:44:59,839
Speaker 1: he's you know, inside that top fifty range. If Clay

957
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:02,480
Speaker 1: Holmes jumps into a really you know, if he starts,

958
00:45:02,520 --> 00:45:05,719
Speaker 1: if people are deciding between like Sandy al Contra and

959
00:45:05,880 --> 00:45:08,799
Speaker 1: Clay Holmes. Okay, but at this point he is a

960
00:45:08,800 --> 00:45:13,440
Speaker 1: bit free. The comparisons are interesting his slider and sweeper.

961
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:18,080
Speaker 1: A four mile proer differential between those two pitches both

962
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:20,960
Speaker 1: generated a thirty eight percent or higher wiff rates. So

963
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:23,359
Speaker 1: you've got two different slider types that you're throwing for

964
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:26,840
Speaker 1: really really really high wiff rates. The fastball is not

965
00:45:26,960 --> 00:45:28,560
Speaker 1: going to tick and it didn't strike out or the

966
00:45:28,600 --> 00:45:32,680
Speaker 1: sinker he threw so thirteen percent K pitch, so it's

967
00:45:32,680 --> 00:45:34,799
Speaker 1: a setup pitch to those others, which, by the way,

968
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:38,760
Speaker 1: slider thirty nine percent K percentage, sweeper forty three percent.

969
00:45:38,920 --> 00:45:42,360
Speaker 1: And I think that throwing in maybe a change up addition,

970
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:45,320
Speaker 1: that's where the Michael King coomps start to come into play.

971
00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:48,839
Speaker 1: Maybe just a good dart throw. Projections really love him.

972
00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:50,239
Speaker 1: Will we all love him at the end of the year.

973
00:45:50,280 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 1: I don't know, but the projections sure do. Friends. Those

974
00:45:53,080 --> 00:45:56,359
Speaker 1: are ten players that Projections absolutely love, and we didn't

975
00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:58,040
Speaker 1: just pick on one. We talked about a bunch of

976
00:45:58,080 --> 00:46:02,960
Speaker 1: different projection systems hitters, and if you have identified a

977
00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:06,120
Speaker 1: guy that Projections absolutely love that we didn't hit, drop

978
00:46:06,160 --> 00:46:08,000
Speaker 1: it below in the comments, Let's see who we've got

979
00:46:08,080 --> 00:46:11,440
Speaker 1: because there are deeper plays. It becomes more the definition

980
00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:13,719
Speaker 1: of like, what's really love? What is rue? What does

981
00:46:13,760 --> 00:46:15,560
Speaker 1: love have to do with it? Well, you guys, let

982
00:46:15,680 --> 00:46:19,080
Speaker 1: us know some of your favorite players based on projections below,

983
00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:21,719
Speaker 1: and go and check us out over on Fantasy Pros

984
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:24,000
Speaker 1: because not only do we have the Draft Assistant fantasypros

985
00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:27,600
Speaker 1: dot Com slash Assistant, but we've also got the draft

986
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:29,839
Speaker 1: kit that is out so you can check the draft

987
00:46:29,920 --> 00:46:32,200
Speaker 1: day cheat sheets. Piece of P has got one, I've

988
00:46:32,239 --> 00:46:35,080
Speaker 1: got mine, Rico, I imagine you either have yours up

989
00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:37,719
Speaker 1: or it'll be there soon. Bogman. We got lots and

990
00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:40,960
Speaker 1: lots of great information there. You can check out the ECR,

991
00:46:41,080 --> 00:46:43,640
Speaker 1: the ADP, and all of our data. Plus get down

992
00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 1: to drafting not only with the assistant, but get in

993
00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:50,680
Speaker 1: with the mock Draft simulator. You can perform mocks in minutes,

994
00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:54,640
Speaker 1: multiple five six, probably in an hour, set it to

995
00:46:54,640 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 1: your league settings, customize it, and you can even have

996
00:46:57,160 --> 00:46:59,759
Speaker 1: friends joined. So check it out today by sinking your

997
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:03,440
Speaker 1: go over at Fantasy Pros. That is it, my friends.

998
00:47:03,480 --> 00:47:05,560
Speaker 1: Thank you guys for hanging out with us. As always,

999
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:07,440
Speaker 1: make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel. Go and

1000
00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:11,440
Speaker 1: win that John Smoltz autograph baseball for Joe Rico. I'm

1001
00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:13,120
Speaker 1: Chris Welsh. We'll talk to you next time right here

1002
00:47:13,160 --> 00:47:14,400
Speaker 1: on Fantasy Pros MLB.

1003
00:47:14,920 --> 00:47:18,120
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast.

1004
00:47:18,360 --> 00:47:20,760
Speaker 4: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

1005
00:47:20,800 --> 00:47:23,680
Speaker 4: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

1006
00:47:23,800 --> 00:47:27,480
Speaker 4: or Spotify. Follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at

1007
00:47:27,520 --> 00:47:30,440
Speaker 4: Fantasy pros at. Subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube

1008
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:32,760
Speaker 4: dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB