1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:05,120 Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of his information. Wouldn't 2 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:08,600 Speaker 1: you agree on five dollars? This is a row a 3 00:00:08,680 --> 00:00:16,080 Speaker 1: lesson happy tackle shit one man, you're saying that humans 4 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:21,239 Speaker 1: need fantasy to make life bearable, humans need fantasy to 5 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 1: be human. My goodness, miss good, I suppose the best, relentless, 6 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:33,159 Speaker 1: refusing to give up. All right, hit that horn. Let's 7 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:40,240 Speaker 1: and welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast presented by Prize Picks. 8 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:43,199 Speaker 1: I'm your host, Chris Raybond along with my guy Sean Kerner, 9 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:47,320 Speaker 1: and today is our week five props episode. So Sean, 10 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 1: how you doing? Uh? Not too good. 11 00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:51,839 Speaker 2: I think I have the flu or something, but you know, 12 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 2: I'm gonna bring it like we're gonna do Michael Jordan 13 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 2: Flu Game five and oh my props today hopefully. 14 00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:00,120 Speaker 1: But yeah, other than that, feeling good. Other than I'm 15 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:02,440 Speaker 1: feeling like shit, I feel great. I love it. I 16 00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 1: love it running flu game reference all right? With that, 17 00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:06,480 Speaker 1: I mean we can't beat that. So we're just going 18 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:08,760 Speaker 1: to get right into the props. So if you're not 19 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:11,840 Speaker 1: familiar with the episode, we do one quarterback prop, two 20 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:16,200 Speaker 1: running back props, and two receiving props each per episode, 21 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 1: So ten props total, Sean, where are you going with 22 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 1: your quarterback prop? 23 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 2: I'm going with the over a half interception for Jacoby 24 00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 2: Brissett against the Buccaneers, so I will think, you know, 25 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:29,520 Speaker 2: I think he will throw an interception here. PFF has 26 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:32,800 Speaker 2: him with a four point seven turnover worthy play rate 27 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:35,320 Speaker 2: this season, but with only one interception on the or 28 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:38,039 Speaker 2: so he's due for some luck to arrest there. 29 00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:40,840 Speaker 1: You know this game he should throw a ton. 30 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 2: The Dolphins are plus ten heading in this game, so 31 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 2: the market has him at thirty seven and a half 32 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 2: pass attempts here, so I think the odds of him 33 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:50,440 Speaker 2: throwing an interception are high. I have it right around 34 00:01:50,520 --> 00:01:52,840 Speaker 2: sixty percent that he throws a pick here, So I'm 35 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 2: going with a half over a half interceptions for Jacoby Brissett. 36 00:01:56,920 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 1: Yeah. I actually had to do a double take when 37 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:01,960 Speaker 1: I looked at Jacoby Brissett's rear interception numbers. He's actually 38 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 1: been quite good in terms of not throwing picks. But 39 00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 1: this is a matchup where unlike some of the other 40 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 1: ones where they just kind of profiled as these slogs 41 00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 1: of a game, like You're not gonna be able to 42 00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:15,080 Speaker 1: run on Tampa. So even though I think me and 43 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:18,360 Speaker 1: you are are both playing corner for Tampa Bay this weekend. 44 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 2: Uh, you know this is probably I don't think I 45 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:21,920 Speaker 2: can play quarterback for anybody. 46 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:28,239 Speaker 1: Okay, well yeah, Riyr like, oh we go again, but no, yeah, 47 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:32,919 Speaker 1: I think you know, most quarterbacks and any week I 48 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:36,240 Speaker 1: would probably bet the over on half an interception because, uh, 49 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:39,920 Speaker 1: it's just the nature of interceptions. They're very random, you know, 50 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:42,239 Speaker 1: even a guy like Aaron Rodgers, you know, Tom Brady, 51 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 1: guys who have historically limited interceptions, you can throw them 52 00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 1: in bunches like we've already seen Rogers throw you know, 53 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:51,680 Speaker 1: have a multi interception game this year. So yeah, no, 54 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:54,960 Speaker 1: I like it. I got recent projected over that, you 55 00:02:55,000 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 1: know for an average, so for a media and you 56 00:02:56,880 --> 00:03:00,040 Speaker 1: should definitely go to one more often than none. And 57 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:02,200 Speaker 1: hopefully we can go to and O on interception props. 58 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 1: I think I had Jamon Hurts. Maybe it was the 59 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:07,680 Speaker 1: Monday episode actually, but yeah, with. 60 00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:09,560 Speaker 2: That one on the you hit that one on the 61 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:11,679 Speaker 2: very first drive. I hope that happens here. 62 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:14,919 Speaker 1: Hey, I've also lost Dalton Schultz on the very first drive, 63 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 1: so true, all well, it evens out, it evens out, 64 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 1: but yeah, so so you got Jacobe Brissett over and 65 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 1: half an interception, Uh is the line at prize picks. 66 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:30,760 Speaker 1: I am going for mine with Sam Donald over two 67 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty and a half passing yards at prize picks. 68 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 1: This number it's just too low. I know the Eagles 69 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:39,400 Speaker 1: are gonna you know, they're going to play their two 70 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 1: safeties deep, so they will try to get the Panthers 71 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 1: to run the football. But you look at Sam Donald 72 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:47,760 Speaker 1: and even though the Panthers have had three cake matchups, 73 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 1: the Jets, you know, the Saints dealing with all those 74 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 1: COVID issues in Week two, and then the Houston Texans 75 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:56,520 Speaker 1: and Davis Mills first start, Donald's still been over that 76 00:03:56,600 --> 00:03:59,119 Speaker 1: number in all three of those games, and last week 77 00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:02,240 Speaker 1: obviously against Dallas and more of a comeback game script. 78 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 1: So two hundred and seventy nine, three oh five, three 79 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 1: oh four, and three oh one are Donald's four passing 80 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 1: yardage totals. I have them closer to to seventy in 81 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:15,119 Speaker 1: this matchup, and it kind of goes hand in hand 82 00:04:15,160 --> 00:04:17,760 Speaker 1: with the fact that I think the market's overrating the 83 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 1: Panthers a little bit in this spot. I expect the 84 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:22,600 Speaker 1: Eagles to put up a fight here and potentially win 85 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 1: this game. So I think we could see another game 86 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 1: script a little bit closer, you know, maybe not a 87 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:30,160 Speaker 1: complete blowout like you know, the third quarter in Dallas. 88 00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 1: But remember the Panthers are up at halftime in that 89 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:36,159 Speaker 1: game last week. So I think Sam Donald at this point, 90 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 1: we have to project them a little higher, uh, in 91 00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:40,840 Speaker 1: terms of his passing yarde totals. So going over two 92 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty and a half for Donald. 93 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:46,039 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you here. I've met two seventy. So 94 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:47,720 Speaker 2: I had to do a double take with this number. 95 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 2: At two fifty. It seems weird to say, but Sam 96 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:52,920 Speaker 2: Donald a high floor play and we're projecting at two 97 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:55,560 Speaker 2: hundred and seventy yards. But that's where we're at. So 98 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:58,200 Speaker 2: this is one I would act fast because I think 99 00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:00,479 Speaker 2: this one's this props for suregan to go up. It 100 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:03,840 Speaker 2: wouldn't surprise me if it does close right around two seventy. 101 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:06,239 Speaker 2: So this is one I would urge you if you're listening, 102 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 2: to get it while you can. 103 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:11,160 Speaker 1: All right, who will you go with for your first 104 00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:15,040 Speaker 1: running back prop of Week five? Okay, so this one. 105 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:15,919 Speaker 1: I love this prop. 106 00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:19,480 Speaker 2: It's Malcolm Brown under twenty seven and a half rushing 107 00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:23,600 Speaker 2: yards against the Buccaneers. I mean, we saw the Patriots 108 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 2: combined for what minus one rushing yard Sunday night against 109 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:30,280 Speaker 2: the Buccaneers. So with Malcolm Brown in the midst of 110 00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 2: a three way committee, really this is a three way committee, 111 00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 2: I just don't see how he clears this number. If anything, 112 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:39,920 Speaker 2: this could be you know, Miles Gaskin bounce back game 113 00:05:39,960 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 2: where they might involve them in the passing game more. 114 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:44,960 Speaker 2: But I just don't see Malcolm Brown getting enough carries 115 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:47,600 Speaker 2: to clear this number. I mean, even if he were 116 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:50,240 Speaker 2: to somehow get eighty ten carries, he can still go 117 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:53,200 Speaker 2: on this under this number. That's how good the Bucks 118 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:56,280 Speaker 2: d line is. The you know, the Dolphins offensive line 119 00:05:57,120 --> 00:05:59,040 Speaker 2: is pretty rough right now. So this is just an 120 00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:01,159 Speaker 2: easy under for me projecting this all the way down 121 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 2: to like nineteen and a half. So I still think 122 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:06,360 Speaker 2: this this should be down closer to about twenty and 123 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:07,159 Speaker 2: a half twenty one. 124 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:10,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I haven't projected for just three point four 125 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:13,039 Speaker 1: yards per carry this week, which is you know, me 126 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 1: and my model, like I don't go too crazy to 127 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:17,320 Speaker 1: yards per carry, So like this is probably the lowest 128 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:19,640 Speaker 1: of running back can get how many how many carriers 129 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 1: do you have that right around Hayines right around here. Yeah, 130 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 1: so yeah, you're about about eight for twenty five or 131 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 1: six in his media and his mien and you know 132 00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 1: for the media, and yeah, i'd gou'd be more like 133 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 1: twenty two and a half or something like that. So, 134 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:34,600 Speaker 1: uh yeah, this number is a widow too high. And 135 00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 1: I feel like we've had good success here, just kind 136 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:40,040 Speaker 1: of fading backs against the Bucks on this podcast. You know, 137 00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 1: there's a few defenses the Bucks, the Saints usually most weeks, 138 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:46,760 Speaker 1: they're just not going to give up much on the ground. 139 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:49,120 Speaker 1: And so you know, we saw it with the with 140 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:52,200 Speaker 1: the Patriots last weekend. They actually threw what was it 141 00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:54,239 Speaker 1: like eighty five percent of the time with Mac Jones. 142 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:56,120 Speaker 1: So when Belichick is you know, kind of not even 143 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:59,240 Speaker 1: running on the buck, Ryan Flores is a Belichick disciple, 144 00:06:59,760 --> 00:07:02,000 Speaker 1: So oh, you know, I think you kind of come 145 00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:05,920 Speaker 1: out with the same mindset because there's just not really 146 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 1: a pass to success running against the Bucks. Like maybe 147 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 1: you'd like to do it, but it's just tough to 148 00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 1: do it. And then the Bucks are, you know, the favorite, 149 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:15,200 Speaker 1: So the game script not working in his favorite either, 150 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 1: So I love this one. Uh so you have two 151 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:20,120 Speaker 1: Dolphins props to start today? 152 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 2: Yeah right, yeah, I see both bad, both bading for 153 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:24,440 Speaker 2: the Dolphins and play bad. 154 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:29,840 Speaker 1: But yeah, uh okay, yeah, funny story. I was, uh, 155 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 1: two weeks ago Stucky on our Action Network pod picked 156 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 1: the Jags and I had Jags gear on, so I 157 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 1: tried to jink them last week because they didn't cover. 158 00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 1: So I tried to jink them and rock the you know, 159 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:42,560 Speaker 1: a Jets throwback Joe Davis. I was like, Zach Wilson, 160 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 1: isn't Broadway, Zach, And of course they cover. So this 161 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 1: week I just I just went with the Wade Bogs, 162 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:49,400 Speaker 1: Devil Rays. I just went in a different sport. So, 163 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 1: oh okay, hopefully does. 164 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 2: That mean I should take the Red Sox tonight? Hey? 165 00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 1: I think so. I think I already took on plus 166 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:01,440 Speaker 1: one and a half. You are there, you go man? 167 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 1: All right, let's go to my first running back prop. 168 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 1: I feel like this guy is. We've been on one 169 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 1: side or another of this guy all year. Damien Harris 170 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 1: over fifty nine and a half rushing yards. Last week 171 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:15,800 Speaker 1: we kind of talked about it. You don't run on 172 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:19,080 Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, Bill Belichick's going to play to the strengths 173 00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 1: of his team and the strengths of the defense. And 174 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:24,320 Speaker 1: in this you know, in that game, they didn't run, 175 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:26,640 Speaker 1: and they couldn't run in this game. We have a 176 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:31,280 Speaker 1: Houston defense that is thirty first in run defense DVOA, 177 00:08:31,400 --> 00:08:34,160 Speaker 1: but eighth in past defense dv AWAY. So they are 178 00:08:34,440 --> 00:08:36,560 Speaker 1: a run funnel to the fullest. And that's not to 179 00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 1: mention that the Patriots are nine and a half point favorites, 180 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 1: their biggest spread in favor of them all season, so 181 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:46,439 Speaker 1: this could be their most positive game. Script. You get 182 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:49,400 Speaker 1: to builo on a running back that it should get 183 00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 1: probably seventy percent or more of the backfield carries here 184 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 1: in Damien Harris, and he's not gonna need a ton 185 00:08:57,559 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 1: of carries. I think to go over this number against you. 186 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:02,960 Speaker 1: And they're giving up five yards per carry to opposing 187 00:09:03,040 --> 00:09:05,640 Speaker 1: running backs. They're giving up one hundred and fourteen rushing 188 00:09:05,679 --> 00:09:07,680 Speaker 1: yards per game to opposing running backs. So I love 189 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:11,560 Speaker 1: Damien Harris over fifty nine and a half rushing yards. 190 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 1: I have this closer to sixty seven and a half, 191 00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:18,520 Speaker 1: so I think there's quite a bit of wiggle room here. 192 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:21,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, I love it. I'm with you on the over 193 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:23,360 Speaker 2: here as well. It's a good bill low opportunity. We 194 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:26,079 Speaker 2: kind of know when to buy on Damien Harrison when 195 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:29,040 Speaker 2: to sell. You called it when they were facing the 196 00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:32,600 Speaker 2: Saints and this should be a run heavy game script, 197 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:34,920 Speaker 2: so they're going to lean on Harris. This is I'm 198 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:38,040 Speaker 2: projecting closer to sixty four, so I'm right there with you. 199 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:41,200 Speaker 2: But it's such it's a high floor, so that's why 200 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:43,040 Speaker 2: this is a smash spot on the over. 201 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 1: One. 202 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:45,280 Speaker 2: Surprised me if he rushes for eighty yards and two 203 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 2: touchdowns here, so love the over all. 204 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:50,000 Speaker 1: Right, waiting for your second running back. 205 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 2: Prop, I'm going to James Connor over thirty three and 206 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 2: a half rushing yards. It seems like this was his 207 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:57,360 Speaker 2: Week one line. But we know a lot more about 208 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 2: this backfield now and James Connor has he played really well. 209 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:01,880 Speaker 1: He's pretty much. 210 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:05,560 Speaker 2: Inherited the cameon Drake roll and you know he's gonna 211 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:08,680 Speaker 2: benefit from positive game scripts. So certainly when the Cardinals 212 00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:11,440 Speaker 2: are four and oh, James Connor is gonna look good 213 00:10:11,679 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 2: this week? You know they're minus four and a half 214 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:16,280 Speaker 2: at home against fourn and Ors, so potentially another good 215 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:19,079 Speaker 2: game script for James Connor. Either way, I'm projecting him 216 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 2: for about eleven to twelve carries here. So even if 217 00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:23,559 Speaker 2: he's not, you know, the greatest in terms of yards 218 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:26,480 Speaker 2: per rush, I don't see how he doesn't clear this number. 219 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 2: He's another guy that I think he has such a 220 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:32,559 Speaker 2: high floor that despite only being about seven eight yards 221 00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:36,000 Speaker 2: over this market, I just love his floor and I 222 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:38,000 Speaker 2: would take this probably up to thirty six and a half. 223 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:40,840 Speaker 2: But it seems like this number is not really adjusting 224 00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:43,280 Speaker 2: to kind of what we've seen from Connor sort of 225 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:46,240 Speaker 2: dominating the rushing work, and you know, it's really between 226 00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:48,560 Speaker 2: him and Chase Edmonds. They don't really have a third 227 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:51,800 Speaker 2: back that mixes in. So everything just leads to me 228 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:53,319 Speaker 2: liking me over here on James Connor. 229 00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:56,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, I haven't projected, you know, in the mid forties 230 00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:59,040 Speaker 1: in rushing yard age. I know this is a wet 231 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 1: down spot for hours. You know, don't be surprised if 232 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:05,640 Speaker 1: San Francisco wins this game or Arizona goes down big early. 233 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:09,319 Speaker 1: This is the exact spot where it happens. But even so, 234 00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:12,679 Speaker 1: like just in terms of the deviation from the number 235 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:15,880 Speaker 1: of running back carries you expect you still would expect 236 00:11:16,040 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 1: Arizona to get you know, maybe at worst, you know, 237 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 1: fifteen to seventeen carries for their backs, even maybe eighteen, 238 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:25,200 Speaker 1: and Connor should still get over half of those. So 239 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 1: this is not a hard number to clear. Even if 240 00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:30,720 Speaker 1: you're getting you know, nine to ten carries, you know, 241 00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:32,200 Speaker 1: you just have to average like three and a half 242 00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:35,840 Speaker 1: yards per carry to get over this number. So I 243 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:39,160 Speaker 1: like it as well. For my second running back prop, 244 00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:42,160 Speaker 1: going with our guy James Robinson over sixty one and 245 00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 1: a half rushing yards. This is just a mix of 246 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:48,840 Speaker 1: kind of trending usage and the matchup for Robinson. So 247 00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:54,520 Speaker 1: last week urban Meyer said, forget it. I'm not playing 248 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 1: these games that Carlos hide anymore. Healthy scratch James. Last 249 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:02,680 Speaker 1: week James Vinston wags ninety five percent of the snaps, 250 00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:06,600 Speaker 1: a season high. He gets eighteen carries and gets seventy 251 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 1: eight yards, and that's after a fifteen carry eighty eight 252 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 1: yard performance. So he's gone well over this number. In 253 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:14,120 Speaker 1: each of the last two games on the season. His 254 00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:18,120 Speaker 1: carries have gone from five to eleven to fifteen to eighteen, 255 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 1: so you're seeing an increase in the amount of work 256 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 1: he's getting. You know, the Jaguars know they have to run. Now. 257 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:27,920 Speaker 1: DJ Chark is out in one of their top receivers, 258 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:31,559 Speaker 1: So you're going against the Titans defense that's twenty fourth 259 00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:36,520 Speaker 1: in run defense DVOA and actually in early downs you know, 260 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:38,560 Speaker 1: when you want to run the ball more. The Titans, 261 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:41,599 Speaker 1: they've been surprisingly good against the pass, most of the 262 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: damage against the passes company these big like third down plays. 263 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 1: Titans are number one and early down pass success rate 264 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 1: on defense. So that invites the run even more, even 265 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:53,320 Speaker 1: though Tennessee wait in the down. Yeah, they're gonna give 266 00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 1: up some plays. So love it for Robinson here, and 267 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:59,319 Speaker 1: remember he played ninety five percent of the snaps, got 268 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 1: a season high in Harry's and then they got ten 269 00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:05,040 Speaker 1: days off. You know, Urban Meyer almost got the rest 270 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:08,240 Speaker 1: of his career off in the NFL, but James Robins 271 00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:12,320 Speaker 1: a little too loosely, Yeah right, but yeah, just ten 272 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:15,080 Speaker 1: days off for Robinson. I think it's the right call, 273 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 1: you know, for Meyer. You know, I will give him 274 00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:19,840 Speaker 1: credit for kind of figuring that one out quickly because 275 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:22,320 Speaker 1: last season, you know, James Robinson was a guy felt 276 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:23,800 Speaker 1: like we had to talk about every week. He was 277 00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:28,240 Speaker 1: consistently you know, under you know, underappreciated in the in 278 00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:31,320 Speaker 1: all the markets, and so ninety five percent. He only 279 00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 1: cleared that number once last year. And we know how 280 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 1: good he was last year in terms of his his usage. 281 00:13:37,880 --> 00:13:41,679 Speaker 1: So this is this should be just vintage James Robinson performance. Again, 282 00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:45,920 Speaker 1: he had one hundred and two yards against Tennessee in 283 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:47,800 Speaker 1: one of in the in the first matchup, he had 284 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:50,560 Speaker 1: sixty seven yards in the second matchup, both of those 285 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:54,240 Speaker 1: higher than the sixty one and a half yard prop. Uh. 286 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:56,440 Speaker 1: That is that prize pitch right now. So love the 287 00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:57,600 Speaker 1: over for James Robinson. 288 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:00,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, we keep obviously we keep picking up Urban Myron 289 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:03,600 Speaker 2: rightfully so, but we keep pointing out that he always 290 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:06,200 Speaker 2: makes a mistake initially and then he usually corrects it. 291 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:09,200 Speaker 2: With James Robinson, it's been a constant theme where you know, 292 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:11,720 Speaker 2: they took Travis ATM in the first round despite having 293 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 2: James Robinson, and then even after you got hurt, they're 294 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 2: using Carlos Hideway too much. I think Urban Meyer gets 295 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 2: it now. James Robinson is a legit back work course back. 296 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 2: So I think Carlos Hide was ruled out because he 297 00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:27,000 Speaker 2: had a shoulder injury. But either way, even if your 298 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:29,200 Speaker 2: returns this week. I think Robinson's going to maintain this 299 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:32,680 Speaker 2: workhorse role in the rushing end passing game. So yeah, 300 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 2: I'm projecting him closer to sixty seven and a half 301 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:35,240 Speaker 2: yards on the ground. 302 00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:36,400 Speaker 1: Here another one where. 303 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 2: I just think it's a really high four, like he 304 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 2: should see fifteen plus carries. So I'm with here on 305 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 2: the over as well. 306 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 1: Next up here on the Fantasy Flex is a segment 307 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:48,040 Speaker 1: we call Elite Entries where Sean and I dive into 308 00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 1: the prize picks at and compare our player projections to 309 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:55,040 Speaker 1: the props to build some entries. Sean, what is your 310 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 1: first prize picks elit entry best bet for week number five? 311 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:03,800 Speaker 2: So my first pick is Corland Sutton to go over 312 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 2: fifty two and a half receiving yards. I think this 313 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:09,000 Speaker 2: is a good big low spot. You know, last week 314 00:15:09,200 --> 00:15:12,400 Speaker 2: the Broncos pass game was a disaster. Once Teddy Bridgewater 315 00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:14,080 Speaker 2: around the game, you know, Drew Lock came in, they 316 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 2: only threw for one hundred and seventy yards and Sutton 317 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:19,720 Speaker 2: still finished with forty seven. So even a game like that, 318 00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:21,960 Speaker 2: he can come close to purering this number. I love 319 00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:25,040 Speaker 2: him in this matchup. It seems like Teddy Bridgewaters should 320 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 2: play here, but even if Drew Lock has to suit up, 321 00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 2: Sudden has shown just an extremely high floor ceiling combo. 322 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 2: Ever since Jerry Judy n KG Handler went down last week, 323 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:37,840 Speaker 2: his one hundred and sixty eight air yards ranked seventh 324 00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:40,400 Speaker 2: in the league, so he's been unlucky it only and 325 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 2: with forty seven receiving yards, I'm projecting him those are 326 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:47,200 Speaker 2: the mid sixties here, so you know we have about 327 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:49,520 Speaker 2: fifteen yards a cushion. I love this over and I 328 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 2: would take it all the way. 329 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:53,440 Speaker 1: Up about fifty eight and a half. Yeah, if this 330 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:56,040 Speaker 1: is just an air yards play. Air yards are like 331 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 1: those invisible yards, and when they're not converted, they provide 332 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 1: value going forward because they're very predictive. They're going to 333 00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:04,840 Speaker 1: keep coming and all you need is one or two 334 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:07,000 Speaker 1: big catches, even against a tough defense or who is 335 00:16:07,040 --> 00:16:09,920 Speaker 1: a substandard quarterback, to go over that number. So I 336 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:12,680 Speaker 1: haven't projected in the mid sixties as well. So I 337 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 1: like this for your first bet. I am going with 338 00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:18,680 Speaker 1: the guy I've been screaming about all week, Damian Harris 339 00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:22,120 Speaker 1: over fifty nine and a half rushing yards again. Last 340 00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:25,720 Speaker 1: two weeks he faced perhaps the two strongest run defenses 341 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:28,280 Speaker 1: in the league, in the Saints and the Bucks. He 342 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:31,560 Speaker 1: predictably did absolutely nothing. I think we were on his 343 00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 1: unders for those weeks as well. Now we're going over 344 00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:37,320 Speaker 1: fifty nine and a half rushing yards against a Houston 345 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 1: Texans defense. They're allowing five yards even per carry to 346 00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 1: running back, a very high total, and they were a 347 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:48,120 Speaker 1: run funnel. They ranked eighth in pass defense givaway, but 348 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:51,680 Speaker 1: thirty first against the run. You also have the fact 349 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 1: that game script should work in Harris's favor. Do England 350 00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 1: a nine and a half point favorite on the road 351 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:02,480 Speaker 1: in Houston in this spot, So love Damian Harris over 352 00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:05,760 Speaker 1: fifty nine and a half rushing yards. Sean, where are 353 00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:06,800 Speaker 1: we at for our second Brown? 354 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:11,639 Speaker 2: So I'm going with Malcolm Brown under twenty seven and 355 00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 2: a half rushing yards against the Buccaneers. This is just 356 00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:17,879 Speaker 2: a great lineman take advantage of. I'm projecting at closer 357 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:20,359 Speaker 2: to nineteen and a half twenty and a half. But 358 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:22,680 Speaker 2: you know, Malcolm Brown, He's still part of a three 359 00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:27,800 Speaker 2: way committee with Miles Gaskin, Salvin Achmad and this is 360 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:29,880 Speaker 2: a negative game strip that doesn't really set up well 361 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,960 Speaker 2: for Brown anyway. So even if he were to get 362 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:35,680 Speaker 2: seven eight carries, which I think is closer to the 363 00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:38,800 Speaker 2: ceiling here going up against his Bucks defense, we can't 364 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:41,720 Speaker 2: really expect him to clear this number. So he has 365 00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:44,359 Speaker 2: a very low floor here. It would not shock me 366 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:47,040 Speaker 2: if he ends with single digit rushing yards here. I mean, 367 00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 2: we saw the Patriots last week rush for minus one 368 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 2: total yards. I think it was so just think Malcolm 369 00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:54,920 Speaker 2: Brown has a really really low floor and twenty seven 370 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:56,360 Speaker 2: and a half is way too high. So I love 371 00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:58,480 Speaker 2: the under twenty seven and a half rushing yards for 372 00:17:58,520 --> 00:17:59,080 Speaker 2: Malcolm Brown. 373 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,080 Speaker 1: Round played a season high sixty seven percent of the 374 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:04,760 Speaker 1: snaps last week, he still went under this number. Yeah, 375 00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:06,960 Speaker 1: eight carries for twenty three yards. So yeah, we got 376 00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:10,560 Speaker 1: to get that guy more against the Buccaneers. Against the Colts. 377 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:15,800 Speaker 1: This is a smash play. Love it. For my second 378 00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:18,640 Speaker 1: prize pick a Weed entry for Week five, I'm going 379 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 1: Hunter redfro over four receptions another one I just love. 380 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:25,919 Speaker 1: He's had five receptions in two games this year and 381 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:28,879 Speaker 1: six receptions in the other two. He's averaging five and 382 00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:31,320 Speaker 1: a half, which is one and a half over his 383 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 1: current line. And the Bears they set up weakest in 384 00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:37,520 Speaker 1: the slot, Duke Shelley, you know is they're kind of 385 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:39,680 Speaker 1: their slat corner. They've been holding up a little better 386 00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:41,640 Speaker 1: on the outside. Teams have been taking advantage of them 387 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:44,040 Speaker 1: in the slot. Three of the four swat receiver they've 388 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:47,280 Speaker 1: faced have gotten away six catches in the first four 389 00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:51,000 Speaker 1: weeks of the season. So love Hunter renfro here over 390 00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:54,720 Speaker 1: four receptions and to recap for our prize pick a 391 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:57,880 Speaker 1: lead entry for week five, Sean is going with Courtland 392 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:01,399 Speaker 1: Sutton over fifty two and a half receiving yards and 393 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:04,920 Speaker 1: Malcolm Brown under twenty seven and a half rushing yards. 394 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:08,200 Speaker 1: I am going with Damien Harris over fifty nine and 395 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:12,919 Speaker 1: a half rushing yards and Hunter renfro over for receptions. 396 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:16,159 Speaker 1: As a reminder, Prize Picks markets do move, so you 397 00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:18,400 Speaker 1: want to get on it quickly in order to lock 398 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 1: in the best numbers. If you haven't created an account yet, 399 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:27,320 Speaker 1: check out the link in our episode description and they'll 400 00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:29,639 Speaker 1: match your first deposit up to one hundred dollars. Or 401 00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:32,240 Speaker 1: visit prizepicks dot com and use the promo code action 402 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:34,240 Speaker 1: of one zero. I don't know if that probo still 403 00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 1: has so I'm just gonna say if you haven't created 404 00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 1: a prize Pix's account yet. Check out the wink in 405 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:42,880 Speaker 1: our episode description. All right, now back to the show. 406 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 1: All right, where are you going for your first receiving problem? 407 00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 2: So I'm gonna buy low on Courtland Suttons and go 408 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:57,160 Speaker 2: over fifty two and a half for receiving yards at Pittsburgh. 409 00:19:57,280 --> 00:20:00,679 Speaker 2: You know, he went three catches for forty seven yards 410 00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:02,679 Speaker 2: last week, and it was kind of a disaster of 411 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:05,159 Speaker 2: a game. You know, the Broncos only threw for one 412 00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:08,680 Speaker 2: hundred and seventy eight yards. Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out 413 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 2: of the game with a concussion, so they looked out 414 00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:14,240 Speaker 2: of sync. And he's still almost cleared this number. And 415 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 2: he once again he saw just a ton of air yards. 416 00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 1: Last week. 417 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:20,640 Speaker 2: He had one hundred and sixty eight yards through the air, 418 00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:24,200 Speaker 2: which ranked seventh. He's consistently been one of the top 419 00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:27,399 Speaker 2: receivers in air yards, so I'm looking for him to 420 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 2: bounce back this week. It looks like Teddy is trending 421 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:32,240 Speaker 2: in the right direction. He had a limited practice today, 422 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:34,800 Speaker 2: so I'm kind of buying low on Sutton in this market, 423 00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:37,600 Speaker 2: assuming Teddy plays, and even if Drew Locke has to 424 00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:39,960 Speaker 2: get the start, I think he'll still sling it around 425 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:43,399 Speaker 2: to Sutton. You know, Jerry Judy and now kJ Hamler 426 00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:45,960 Speaker 2: the lineup, you know, these targets are going to be 427 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:49,280 Speaker 2: funneled towards Sutton, Patrick and Noah Fant. 428 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:53,280 Speaker 1: So I like getting the dip here and buying low at. 429 00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:56,440 Speaker 2: Fifty two and a half receiving yards for Croland Sutton, Yeah, 430 00:20:56,480 --> 00:20:57,800 Speaker 2: I have him in the mid sixties. 431 00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:01,000 Speaker 1: So I'm well ow at his number. I think the 432 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:04,280 Speaker 1: thing with Sutton is you look at his routes per 433 00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:06,880 Speaker 1: drop back, and remember he was a little bit questionable 434 00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 1: to come into the year recovering from that injury. Eighty percent, 435 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:12,960 Speaker 1: eighty two percent, ninety seven percent, ninety eight percent. Uh, 436 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:14,679 Speaker 1: you know, starting from week one, so the last two 437 00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:17,840 Speaker 1: weeks he's basically been on the fields for every dropback 438 00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:21,400 Speaker 1: of Broncos quarterbacks. His average depth of target is seventeen 439 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:24,959 Speaker 1: point eight this year, and so I take all that 440 00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:27,760 Speaker 1: into account, you know, not just the guy's like receiving 441 00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:30,480 Speaker 1: yards and you know, his catches, but also his air 442 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 1: yards to you know, project forward, because that's going to 443 00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:35,240 Speaker 1: be in most cases even more predictive than just his 444 00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:38,080 Speaker 1: raw numbers. So I think that's something the market hasn't 445 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:40,720 Speaker 1: fully kind of caught onto. It's the touchdowns where you 446 00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:43,959 Speaker 1: really don't expect much in this low scoring matchup. So like, 447 00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 1: Sutton's my wide receiver twenty seven, but he has seventy 448 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:49,560 Speaker 1: I'm projecting him five catches seventy yards. It's just that 449 00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 1: he only has point twenty five touchdowns. So I think 450 00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 1: the market is probably you know a little more. You know, 451 00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:57,159 Speaker 1: they're not as high on him because they're they're kind 452 00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 1: of looking at the matchup overall. But I think they 453 00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:02,720 Speaker 1: yard it should be there for him because you know, 454 00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:04,359 Speaker 1: somebody's got to get it. I mean, it's gonna hit 455 00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:06,520 Speaker 1: the guy running the like a snap a round on 456 00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:10,040 Speaker 1: every snap. Yeah, you still expect two hundred yards or so? Yeah, yeah, 457 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:10,200 Speaker 1: I was. 458 00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:12,760 Speaker 2: I mean think they're wide receiver twenty eight. But so 459 00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:15,159 Speaker 2: if Drew, let's say Teddy Bridge ruders ruled out and 460 00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:17,359 Speaker 2: Drew Locke is starting, do you downgrade Sutton at all? 461 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:20,680 Speaker 1: Or is it pretty much? Uh? Even it's it's a 462 00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:23,520 Speaker 1: little bit lower because I have Bridgewater in this matchup. 463 00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:25,840 Speaker 1: I would project Bridgewater for about seven point four yards 464 00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 1: per attempt, but I would project Locked for only about 465 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 1: six point seven, So I have a I have a 466 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:35,359 Speaker 1: big difference between their efficiency. But even if Lock plays again, 467 00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:38,720 Speaker 1: because Sutton, I have Sutton for getting about thirty percent 468 00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:41,320 Speaker 1: of their yards or something like that. You know the mass. 469 00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:42,800 Speaker 1: I can't do the mass exactly off the top of 470 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:45,399 Speaker 1: my head, but it's some number. Where as long as 471 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,240 Speaker 1: the Broncos throw for like two hundred yards, I'm gonna 472 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 1: be over this number. I do. Like, I think the 473 00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:53,359 Speaker 1: Steelers finally get one here, but that's even better for 474 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:57,159 Speaker 1: the for the Yeah, that's yeah negative game script. Do 475 00:22:57,160 --> 00:23:00,719 Speaker 1: you think yeah about the Broncos. The Broncos played the Jets, Giants, 476 00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:02,960 Speaker 1: and Jaguars in the first three games, and then everyone 477 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:05,080 Speaker 1: was like, Oh, they're gonna beat the Ravens. Now it's 478 00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 1: like and now it's like, oh, they're going to beat 479 00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,440 Speaker 1: the Steelers. Like it's like, when I see it, then 480 00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:11,680 Speaker 1: I'll believe it. But until then, yeah, you know what 481 00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,360 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm still gonna perceive a caution. But either way, 482 00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:18,840 Speaker 1: that's it's good for the Sutton prop here all right. 483 00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:22,320 Speaker 1: For my first receiving prop, I'm going with the guy 484 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:23,959 Speaker 1: that I bet against on this podcast, and he made 485 00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,520 Speaker 1: me look silly. And so I have come around. I'm 486 00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,240 Speaker 1: trying to right the wrongs of betting against Hunter Renfro 487 00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:33,800 Speaker 1: in week one. I'm going Hunter Renfro over four receptions 488 00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:37,600 Speaker 1: at prize picks for week number five against the Chicago Bears. 489 00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:40,480 Speaker 1: And this is another one where you have the track 490 00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:42,840 Speaker 1: record and you have the usage and you have the matchup. 491 00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:46,360 Speaker 1: So in four games this year, Hunter Renfro has six, five, 492 00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:49,400 Speaker 1: five and six receptions. He's averaging five and a half. 493 00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:52,360 Speaker 1: He's been over four in every single game he's going 494 00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:56,639 Speaker 1: against Chicago. Chicago's issue, you know, at they've had. You know, 495 00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,480 Speaker 1: coming into the year, we knew the cornerbacks maybe an issue. 496 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:01,879 Speaker 1: You know, you had Villdor, you had Jaywen Johnson on 497 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:06,000 Speaker 1: the outside. They've held up decently. The real issue is 498 00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:08,359 Speaker 1: still in the slot where you have Duke Shelley, you 499 00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:11,200 Speaker 1: had Marqui Christian earlier in the year. That's kind of 500 00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:13,040 Speaker 1: the spot that teams want to pick on them. So 501 00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:15,439 Speaker 1: you saw Cooper Cup get seven catches in the slot, 502 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,160 Speaker 1: Tyler Boyd gets seven catches against them. And last week, 503 00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:20,520 Speaker 1: you know, kind of quietly because no one pays attention 504 00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:24,119 Speaker 1: to the Lions, Armon Ross Saint Brown had a career 505 00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:27,480 Speaker 1: best six catch game and he's mostly a slot receiver 506 00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:31,560 Speaker 1: for Detroit against the Chicago team, so it's just a 507 00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:34,440 Speaker 1: great matchup for Renfro and he's running that stick China route. 508 00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:36,720 Speaker 1: You can't stop it as long as you give Derek 509 00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:38,840 Speaker 1: Carr a little bit of time. Hunter Renfro's doing a 510 00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:41,240 Speaker 1: triple move now, the triple quadruple move like it used 511 00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:43,560 Speaker 1: to be receivers did a double move and you're like, oh, 512 00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:47,320 Speaker 1: like Hunter Renfros now doing triple and quadruple moves on 513 00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:49,760 Speaker 1: the regular Like that's just one of his stable routes. 514 00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:53,480 Speaker 1: So I think he gets another five plus catch game 515 00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:56,720 Speaker 1: against the Chicago Bears. Yeah, I love this. 516 00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:58,960 Speaker 2: This pup should probably be closer to four and a half, right, 517 00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:01,719 Speaker 2: I project came at four point eight. It was very 518 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:04,479 Speaker 2: encouraging to see the routes run jump up from he's 519 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:07,159 Speaker 2: typically around sixty to sixty five percent jump up to eighty. 520 00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:09,440 Speaker 2: So they're running a lot more eleven personnel. How could 521 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:11,680 Speaker 2: you even have ren for off the field. So they 522 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:15,560 Speaker 2: finally figured that out. And I love attacking his receptions 523 00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:17,919 Speaker 2: prop as opposed to his receiving yards because you know 524 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,359 Speaker 2: he gets those high percentage low eight out routes. I 525 00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:22,919 Speaker 2: think his eight outs round seven right now. Whereas you know, 526 00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 2: Rugs is the deep threat. Edwards is constantly blanketed by cornerback, 527 00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:29,120 Speaker 2: so you know car has to kind of like force 528 00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:32,919 Speaker 2: those targets. So Renfro seems like very high floor in 529 00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,479 Speaker 2: this market. So I prefer to see this round four 530 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:36,960 Speaker 2: and a half. So I'd love to take it at four. 531 00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:39,000 Speaker 2: So this is another one, get it all you can. 532 00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:40,960 Speaker 2: I assume it's going to be four and a half 533 00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:43,040 Speaker 2: come Sunday, so act fast on these. 534 00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:45,520 Speaker 1: I feel like Renfro is also a guy in fantasy, 535 00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:48,679 Speaker 1: like he's moving up the rest of season rankings where 536 00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:51,639 Speaker 1: I could see him almost like a poor man's Cooper Cup, 537 00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:54,160 Speaker 1: you know what I mean, Like, yeah, the way he's 538 00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:57,080 Speaker 1: running routes now, and he's gotten a little stronger, Like 539 00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,200 Speaker 1: he's not a guy that's just like, oh he can 540 00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,440 Speaker 1: only like go in side. He's not Adam Humphries. I 541 00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:04,200 Speaker 1: guess what I'm saying, right, He's like a legit, He's 542 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 1: more like Julian Edelman now than Adam Humphries. You know, 543 00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:10,040 Speaker 1: he's like a guy that you know used to be 544 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:12,800 Speaker 1: a strict slot receiver, but he's getting stronger. He's got 545 00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:15,199 Speaker 1: a mind meld with car and he's just sick at 546 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,359 Speaker 1: running routes to the point where if you want to 547 00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:20,199 Speaker 1: line run for up outside, he could still win. You know, 548 00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:22,120 Speaker 1: he's not the biggest guy, but he could still win 549 00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:24,760 Speaker 1: on the outside with the way he's running these routes. 550 00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:26,119 Speaker 1: So I was going to say. 551 00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:28,879 Speaker 2: He's Cooper cut without the touchdowns, but he's scaring to 552 00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 2: touch on each of the last two games. So that's 553 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:33,000 Speaker 2: that's huge for his guy, because that's that's really been 554 00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:35,560 Speaker 2: the only thing about him that's been lacking. But yeah, 555 00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:37,280 Speaker 2: he has such a mind meld that even in the 556 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:39,600 Speaker 2: red zone now cars looking his wife. 557 00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:42,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's that. It's that it's that route because I've 558 00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:44,000 Speaker 1: i think on the one of them. They've been in 559 00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:47,080 Speaker 1: a few primetime games, and I so I really listen 560 00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:49,159 Speaker 1: to the announcers in those as opposed to some of 561 00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,159 Speaker 1: the you know, afternoon games where when I'm rewatching and 562 00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:54,600 Speaker 1: I'm just watching the condensed snap, snap snap, and uh, 563 00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:56,919 Speaker 1: you know, they keep saying that teams are straight up 564 00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,119 Speaker 1: doubling him in the red zone, you know, which is 565 00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:03,440 Speaker 1: not not not the usual thing for a guy like him. So, yeah, 566 00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,800 Speaker 1: who you got for your final receiving prop for Week five? 567 00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:10,480 Speaker 2: Well, I'm going really bold here, and I'm going under 568 00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:14,440 Speaker 2: eighty nine and a half receiving yards for Tyreek Kill. Yes, 569 00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:17,720 Speaker 2: I know bold, It seems crazy, but TYRK. Hill has 570 00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,520 Speaker 2: yet to finish between sixty and one hundred and eighty 571 00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:24,320 Speaker 2: five receiving yards this year, so let's face it, he 572 00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:26,520 Speaker 2: has a wide range of outcomes. If he finishes with 573 00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:29,280 Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty receiving yards here, I will be 574 00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:32,280 Speaker 2: the last person on Earth that's confused by that. However, 575 00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 2: you know, the Bills are obviously a tough matchup. They 576 00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:39,200 Speaker 2: ranked first in DBA in overall defense and in pass defense, 577 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:41,760 Speaker 2: so this is a tough matchup. And this this could 578 00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:44,639 Speaker 2: be a matchup where you know, Travis Kelsey has a 579 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,200 Speaker 2: bounce back game. He was pretty much phased out last week. 580 00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:49,639 Speaker 2: He had four catches for twenty three yards, so I 581 00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:52,399 Speaker 2: could see him getting going here. Who knows if Josh 582 00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:55,359 Speaker 2: Gordon's going to contribute here, But you know, I'm just 583 00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:58,600 Speaker 2: kind of investing in Tyreek's lower floor that he's shown 584 00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:01,320 Speaker 2: this season. So this is a pretty big number I'm 585 00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:03,760 Speaker 2: projecting them closer to eighty two and a half. And 586 00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:05,840 Speaker 2: you know, I don't expect them to end up close 587 00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:07,880 Speaker 2: to this. It's gonna be one streamer or the other. 588 00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:10,560 Speaker 2: But I think just giving the tougher matchup, I'm going 589 00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,920 Speaker 2: to bet against Tyreek Killer and just you know, pray. 590 00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:17,720 Speaker 1: Yeah. This is it's this is the difference between Buffalo, 591 00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:21,159 Speaker 1: you know in years past and this year. This year, Uh, 592 00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:23,120 Speaker 1: they're at the top of the league in pressure rate 593 00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:26,640 Speaker 1: and they are blitzing, like at the eighteenth highest rate. 594 00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:28,960 Speaker 1: So they can get pressure without blitzing. What does that mean? 595 00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:32,919 Speaker 1: That means they can weave seven in coverage and you 596 00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:35,520 Speaker 1: know double Tyreek Kill every play and dope and bracket 597 00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:39,640 Speaker 1: Kelsey every play. So Buffalo is set up much better 598 00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:42,920 Speaker 1: this year to make you beat them with other people. 599 00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:44,840 Speaker 1: You know, it's not just like, Okay, we have to 600 00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:46,960 Speaker 1: blitz get pressure or we're gonna sit back and we're 601 00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:49,920 Speaker 1: gonna have no pressure and Tyree col can come open. Now, 602 00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:52,120 Speaker 1: Buffalo is kind of put it all together, you know, 603 00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:53,760 Speaker 1: So I wouldn't be surprised if they would the game. 604 00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:55,640 Speaker 1: So that might not be good for the Tyreek Kill 605 00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:57,560 Speaker 1: prop because then they throw more. But you know what 606 00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:00,440 Speaker 1: I mean, there's a lot of with this proper stand 607 00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:02,600 Speaker 1: that they're set up though, to take it to take 608 00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:04,680 Speaker 1: away a guy like he'll better than they were, because 609 00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:06,520 Speaker 1: I know people are they had two matchups last year. 610 00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:08,880 Speaker 1: I think he'll had pretty good games. I know in 611 00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:10,880 Speaker 1: the in the playoffs one he did. I forget how 612 00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:12,680 Speaker 1: he went in the other one, but I know people 613 00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:15,160 Speaker 1: are gonna probably look at that. But Buffalo is kind 614 00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:18,480 Speaker 1: of set up this year to take away guys like 615 00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:20,000 Speaker 1: this and make you beat them with a hardman or 616 00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:22,960 Speaker 1: a Gordon or a Robinson or somebody like that. So 617 00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:23,800 Speaker 1: so does. 618 00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,120 Speaker 2: This mean DeMarcus Robinson will see a target this week? 619 00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:27,680 Speaker 2: That's a pretty good prop right. 620 00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:29,920 Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, especially Gordon in the mix. 621 00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:34,480 Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, if if if Robinson doesn't even get his 622 00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:36,800 Speaker 2: sixty five percent chair, how the hell is a going 623 00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:40,320 Speaker 2: to see a target? But yeah, yeah, I think from 624 00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,920 Speaker 2: what I've heard, Travis Kelsey has been talking abot Josh Gordon. 625 00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:45,520 Speaker 2: I've kind of poop pooed him to start, but I'm 626 00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:46,840 Speaker 2: interested to see how he looks. 627 00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:47,680 Speaker 1: I think he could be. 628 00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:49,920 Speaker 2: We we talked about it as long as Patrick Mahomes 629 00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:52,200 Speaker 2: is under center, you know, Josh Gordon. We could see 630 00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:54,960 Speaker 2: that that ceiling we saw almost a decade ago at 631 00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:58,000 Speaker 2: this point, so he could come out firing here and 632 00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:01,200 Speaker 2: that that would impact the Terry philprop for sure. 633 00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:05,560 Speaker 1: Yep, all right. For my second receivement prop, I'm going 634 00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:10,200 Speaker 1: Devonte Smith under five receptions and I think this wine 635 00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:13,440 Speaker 1: should be four and a half. He's gone over He's 636 00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:15,840 Speaker 1: gone over this, you know, five twice at some big 637 00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:18,360 Speaker 1: games and under twice. But he's averaging just four and 638 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:23,000 Speaker 1: a half receptions. Carolina thirty seven receptions allowed to wide 639 00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:26,440 Speaker 1: receivers across four games. That is the lowest in the NFL. 640 00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:30,080 Speaker 1: And we see Carolina putting a lot of effort into 641 00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:33,440 Speaker 1: taking away you know, team's perimeter receivers. You know, the 642 00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,000 Speaker 1: minute cornerback goes down, they trade for CJ. Henderson. Then 643 00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:39,000 Speaker 1: they get Stefan Gilmore. You know he's not going to play, obviously, 644 00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:43,720 Speaker 1: but you see the importance that Carolina is placing on cornerbacks, 645 00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:46,360 Speaker 1: on taking away you know, a team's number one option 646 00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:50,240 Speaker 1: on taking away perimeter threats and funneling the ball to 647 00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:52,600 Speaker 1: other places. That's you know, that's kind of what we 648 00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:56,040 Speaker 1: got wrong about Dalton Schultz last week, is that Carolinas. Hey, hey, 649 00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:59,360 Speaker 1: beat this with Dalton Schultz. So and this is you know, 650 00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:02,040 Speaker 1: this has been a t for Carolina all season long. 651 00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:05,600 Speaker 1: So you know, I like the I like the under 652 00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:09,600 Speaker 1: here Devonte Smith. You know, with this Eagles team, he's 653 00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:12,360 Speaker 1: he's he's not gonna be I think a super high 654 00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:15,200 Speaker 1: volume guy. I think, you know, against the Chiefs, remember 655 00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:18,680 Speaker 1: the Eagles had they didn't punt. The Eagles didn't punt 656 00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:20,600 Speaker 1: against the Chiefs, so they were going up and down 657 00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:24,280 Speaker 1: the field. It was the league's worst pass defense, and 658 00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:26,520 Speaker 1: so of course, if you don't punt and you're facing 659 00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:28,920 Speaker 1: the league's worst pass defense, you're gonna have a big game. 660 00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:30,880 Speaker 1: I kind of expected him to have a big game 661 00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:33,080 Speaker 1: last week, but this is I do expect the Eagles 662 00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:34,520 Speaker 1: to have some success. So I don't even know if 663 00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:36,520 Speaker 1: they'll have to throw a lot period in this game. 664 00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:39,000 Speaker 1: I think the market's underrating the Eagles a little bit. Period. 665 00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:42,680 Speaker 1: But this doesn't profile to me as a big Smith game. 666 00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:44,520 Speaker 1: And I think more often than not, you're going to 667 00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:47,800 Speaker 1: see him under five receptions. In over five receptions, I 668 00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:50,800 Speaker 1: think he might end up averaging you know, four point zero, 669 00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:54,160 Speaker 1: four point two something like that or closer to his 670 00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:56,880 Speaker 1: four four and a half average right now. But I 671 00:31:56,920 --> 00:31:58,600 Speaker 1: don't think he's going to be like a five catch 672 00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:00,920 Speaker 1: weekend week out guy. So I love kind of getting 673 00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:02,480 Speaker 1: ahead of this early. Even though we usually betting on 674 00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:04,520 Speaker 1: rookies early, this is one where I think it's just 675 00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:07,240 Speaker 1: a recency bias from seven to one two and again 676 00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:10,080 Speaker 1: they'll punt against the weak first defense last week and 677 00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:12,800 Speaker 1: a game the opponent puts up forty two, you know 678 00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:14,880 Speaker 1: what I mean. So yeah, yeah, I think it's just 679 00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:18,880 Speaker 1: I'm just buying selling high on Smith in this particular spot. Yeah, 680 00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:19,240 Speaker 1: I like it. 681 00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:21,320 Speaker 2: I'm projecting it at four and a half as well, 682 00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:23,720 Speaker 2: So even if it was four and a half the 683 00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:26,520 Speaker 2: way reception distributions work, that would still be like a 684 00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:29,160 Speaker 2: fifty three percent chance he would go under four and 685 00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:31,560 Speaker 2: a half. So we talked about all the time, just 686 00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:34,880 Speaker 2: a half reception and these markets is so huge. So 687 00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:38,800 Speaker 2: love getting under five. And you know, Hurtz has plenty 688 00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:42,000 Speaker 2: of options. You know, he's gonna lean on both Gutter 689 00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:46,080 Speaker 2: and ERT's heavily. Either Rager or Qus Watkins could have 690 00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:48,160 Speaker 2: a big game here, and then I think they're gonna 691 00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:50,360 Speaker 2: get a game well more involved in the past game 692 00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:53,240 Speaker 2: as well, So it's just hard to project for Smith 693 00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:56,720 Speaker 2: anything more than four and a half reception, So I 694 00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:59,240 Speaker 2: went you on the under five as well, all. 695 00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:01,040 Speaker 1: Right, So that is going to do it for our 696 00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:06,640 Speaker 1: week number five props pod to recap Sewn going Jacoby 697 00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:11,240 Speaker 1: Brissett over and half an interception, Malcolm Brown under twenty 698 00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:14,680 Speaker 1: seven and a half rushing yards, James Connor over thirty 699 00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:17,080 Speaker 1: three and a half rushing yards, Courtland Sutton over fifty 700 00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:20,160 Speaker 1: two and a half receiving yards, and ty Reek Hill 701 00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:24,200 Speaker 1: under eighty nine and a half receiving yards. I am 702 00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:26,680 Speaker 1: going with Sam Darnolds over two hundred and fifty and 703 00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:30,360 Speaker 1: a half passing yards, Damian Harris over fifty nine and 704 00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:33,480 Speaker 1: a half rushing yards, James Robinson over sixty one and 705 00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:37,680 Speaker 1: a half rushing yards, Hunter Renfro over four receptions, and 706 00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:42,840 Speaker 1: Devontae Smith under five receptions. All right. Make sure you 707 00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:46,760 Speaker 1: follow Sean on Twitter at the Underscore Odds Maker. You 708 00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:49,120 Speaker 1: can find me on Twitter at Chris Raybon. You can 709 00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:51,800 Speaker 1: find us at those same handles in the award winning 710 00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:55,959 Speaker 1: Free Action Network app, where you can follow our bets, 711 00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:59,240 Speaker 1: including our prop bets, and track all of your bets 712 00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:03,320 Speaker 1: that you make each and every day for any sport. Also, 713 00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:05,440 Speaker 1: be sure to check out actionnetwork dot com for our 714 00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:10,200 Speaker 1: fantasy football projections and rankings and Fantasy labs dot com 715 00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:15,439 Speaker 1: for our DFS models, tools, and content. Until next time, 716 00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:24,200 Speaker 1: let's get this money.