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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named best betting podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: We're growing in job spect. We're setting it to cash

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Speaker 3: to star.

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Speaker 4: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 4: go to Wind.

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Speaker 5: That's incredible, big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money. All right, this is the

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Speaker 2: ultimate kabine.

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Speaker 6: You want to pull.

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Speaker 4: And we are Honderway and welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 4: I'm your host, Chris Raybond, and this is your NFL

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Speaker 4: Conference Championship betting preview. I'm joined as always by my

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Speaker 4: Action Network Coweague Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 3: What's going on? Would you think of the divisional.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I was a highly entertaining weekend, not for those

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Speaker 2: of us, including me, who are Ravens fans with Raven's futures,

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Speaker 2: but I mean I got everything right on Sunday and

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Speaker 2: everything wrong on Saturday, so it was nice to bounce back.

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Speaker 2: But Saturday, I mean that I also added Raven's second

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Speaker 2: half Ravens Live. The Bills had one hundred and fourteen

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Speaker 2: yards in the first half. The Ravens defense was Look,

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Speaker 2: the Bills missed a couple throws, but the Raves defense

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Speaker 2: was full strength, playing out of its mind. And the

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Speaker 2: wind was obviously a factory saw them field goals. He

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Speaker 2: saw it on overthrows. So I was like, the Ravens

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Speaker 2: have a huge advantage here, three to three at the half,

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Speaker 2: and I mean, the whole game's flipped on that pick six,

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Speaker 2: and yeah it's fluky, and yeah it happens, but you

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Speaker 2: got to give credit to the Bills. La Marsha have

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Speaker 2: tucked it and ran. Probably it was a great defensive call.

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Speaker 2: They made the play and it was funny. All week.

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Speaker 2: I was saying, the difference is going to be either

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Speaker 2: like a Marcus Peters pick six or him being beat

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Speaker 2: on a double move, but it was actually Toron Johnson

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Speaker 2: Bills picked six that ended up being the difference. So

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Speaker 2: credit to the Bills. Happy for Bills fans.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah.

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Speaker 2: I was proud of the Ravens defensive performance. I feel

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Speaker 2: bad for the defense, but defense should be really good

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Speaker 2: next year. We'll see what the offense could do. I mean,

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Speaker 2: Marlon Humphrey played in the slot the whole game and

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Speaker 2: held Beasley to what zero catches. I'm excited to get

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Speaker 2: tav On Young back him in the slot, move Humphrey

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Speaker 2: back outside. Lots to be excited about with the Ravens,

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Speaker 2: as if they can figure some things out on the

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Speaker 2: offensive side. But that's a conversation for another day. Rams Packers. Look,

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Speaker 2: I was wrong on the Rams defense. The backers carved

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Speaker 2: them up, so I had the Rams in the under.

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Speaker 2: I was a little shocked that the Rams were passing

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Speaker 2: so much, especially at the end they're down seven and

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Speaker 2: they come out. Yeah, not shortening the game there. And

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Speaker 2: then they go spread and they're throwing it with golf.

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Speaker 2: They turn it over and then Rogers beats the Rams

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Speaker 2: deep and that was the ball game. Can't nothing to

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Speaker 2: be too mad about there. They're the I mean, the

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Speaker 2: Packers offense dominated. And then Sunday you obviously had Mahomes

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Speaker 2: get hurt, which is a huge storyline. Andy Reid a

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Speaker 2: fourth to one call unbelievable. I mean, I think it's

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Speaker 2: the first time in NFL history the team's throwing the

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Speaker 2: ball on fourth down with more than ten seconds left

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Speaker 2: on the clock on their own side of the field.

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Speaker 2: And it happened in the divisional round with their backup

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Speaker 2: quarterback Crazy Andy. You had a cheeseburger in celebration of

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Speaker 2: the AFC Championship game? Is that true? I did a

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Speaker 2: good one, just one Pambados thick and then yeah, the Bucks.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna get to a lot of this because I

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Speaker 2: think one of my main edges this late in the year,

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Speaker 2: where numbers are a lot of sharpers I try to

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Speaker 2: figure out is what I spent the last couple of

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Speaker 2: days to what defenses each team is going to play

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Speaker 2: and how that's going to impact the game. One of

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Speaker 2: my things that I got right last weekend as said, Look,

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Speaker 2: the Bucks, I think are going to come out and

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Speaker 2: they're going to play press man and if they do that,

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Speaker 2: they're going to shut down the Saints. They can't sit

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Speaker 2: in the soft zone. And that's exactly what they did,

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Speaker 2: and Breeze couldn't throw it downfield and that was the ballgame.

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Speaker 2: Obviously bad turnovers by the Saints too, but I was

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Speaker 2: happy to see the Bucks make top bowls make that adjustment,

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Speaker 2: and that's a lot of times what the playoffs are about.

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Speaker 2: So excited to talk about these two games, which should

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Speaker 2: be very fun, both right around a field goal spread,

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Speaker 2: so they should be competitive games.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and we're going to do a little kind of

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Speaker 4: alternate version of the six pack this week. I'll get

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Speaker 4: to that in a second, but before we kick things off,

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Speaker 4: a couple of quick reminders. Number One, if you plan

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Speaker 4: a bet on any sport ever and still haven't downloaded

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Speaker 4: the free, award.

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Speaker 3: Winning Action Network app, what are you doing?

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Speaker 4: It's got betting tools, analysis from myself, Stucky, in the

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Speaker 4: whole Action Network team, and it lets you track every

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Speaker 4: bet that you make. Number two a quick programming note

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Speaker 4: about the Action Network podcast. In addition to our football shows,

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Speaker 4: we've got PGA Tour betting previews every Tuesday, and now

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Speaker 4: Matt Moore and the NBA team have their NBA Boofay

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Speaker 4: episode every Wednesday. And of course Stucky and Colin Wilson

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Speaker 4: and Mike Randall are back with college basketball episodes every Friday.

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Speaker 4: Check those out and thank you for listening. And just

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Speaker 4: as a reminder, you can follow all of our picks

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Speaker 4: in the app. Just go to the Action Network Apps,

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Speaker 4: follow feature and search for Sunday six Pack. All right, Stuck,

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Speaker 4: let's get into the Conference Championship six pack.

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Speaker 2: Let's do it.

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Speaker 1: Thursday for Action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: Well, actually I drank three, so it's going to be

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Speaker 2: a three pack this weekend. I already drank three.

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Speaker 4: There you go, for the first time of what seems

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Speaker 4: like forever, I made up a little bit of ground

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Speaker 4: on you went three and oh. On my picks, you

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Speaker 4: went one and two, So I'm down six. So what

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Speaker 4: we're gonna do it is the market's pretty efficient here.

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Speaker 4: Since I'm playing from behind, I'll give my picks, you'll

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Speaker 4: give the analysis. It's essentially on me. We'll go two

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Speaker 4: to one to pull within one of you for the

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Speaker 4: Super Bowl, and then we'll see what we do with

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Speaker 4: all the props and things like that. There's no shortage

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Speaker 4: of things to bet there, but this one's the pressure's

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Speaker 4: on me right here.

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Speaker 3: So to start it off on.

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Speaker 2: The Yeah, in fairness, you gave me a shot to

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Speaker 2: come back in the Super Bowl if I swept like

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Speaker 2: five bets, and I think I went like four and one.

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Speaker 2: So I'm giving you a chance here. If you sweep,

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Speaker 2: you get within one, do you get a couple points?

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Speaker 2: No matter what, you'll be within striking distance. And we

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Speaker 2: have plenty to bet on for the Super Bowl, so

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Speaker 2: have to honor what you did last year and make

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Speaker 2: this fun. Plus there's only two games, so yeah, happy

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Speaker 2: to get your best three and then I'll kind of

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Speaker 2: either agree or rebut.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, no, appreciate it and excited to at least make

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Speaker 4: it a game. Wait in the fourth, see if I

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Speaker 4: can get another three and zero. Going in these playoffs,

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Speaker 4: I'm going to start with the first pick of the

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Speaker 4: conference Championship Sunday six pack, going with the Tampa Bay

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Speaker 4: Buccaneers plus three and a half at the Green Bay

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Speaker 4: Packers at bet MGM, the official adds provider of the

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Speaker 4: Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 3: And I like Tampa Bay for a couple of reasons.

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Speaker 4: Number one earlier in the year and this was in

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Speaker 4: Week six, so take it with a green salt. But

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Speaker 4: Tampa Bay thirty eight ten over Green Bay held them

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Speaker 4: scoreless for the final three quarters of the game. Pick

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Speaker 4: sixth Aaron Rodgers twice, which is pretty much unheard of

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Speaker 4: in this day and age. His worst game of the

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Speaker 4: season and otherwise just spectacular campaign in which he's now

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Speaker 4: thrown for fifty touchdowns with five picks, two of them

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Speaker 4: came against the Bucks. From a talent perspective, Tampa Bay

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Speaker 4: can match up with Green Bay on both sides of

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Speaker 4: the ball, So this is really going to come down

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Speaker 4: two plays, and with Tampa Bay you're getting not just

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Speaker 4: the field goal, you're getting that extra half point and

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Speaker 4: what I think should be a close game. You look

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Speaker 4: at these teams, and obviously Green Bay the number one

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Speaker 4: offense in the league, but Tampa Bay not too shabby

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Speaker 4: all around either, number six and weighted defensive DVOA number

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Speaker 4: six versus number one wide receivers, number one versus the

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Speaker 4: wide receiver, threes fours fives those other wide receivers, and

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Speaker 4: number six against running backs, so Tampa Bay and also

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Speaker 4: number three in pressure rate. So Tampa Bay's defense from

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Speaker 4: a talent perspective, can match up. We saw it in

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Speaker 4: the first you know, in the first matchup. We do

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Speaker 4: know that in a non divisional rematch since in this

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Speaker 4: current playoff format, the team that won the first game

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Speaker 4: fifty five and thirty nine fifty eight and a half

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Speaker 4: percent in the rematch, so that tends to favor the team.

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Speaker 4: Obviously you have to kind of take into account of

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Speaker 4: the other factors how much were they expected to win by,

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Speaker 4: But just on a basic level, you do see some

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Speaker 4: carry over here when a team matches up well the

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Speaker 4: first time around Aaron Rodgers. If you are going to

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Speaker 4: slow him down at all, that you're gonna have to

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Speaker 4: be able to get some pressure, whether it's with blitzing,

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Speaker 4: whether it's but ideally, you know, going back to dropping

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Speaker 4: guys back and using that that defensive line to get

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Speaker 4: some pressure. Forty three point nine percent completion rate under

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Speaker 4: pressure thirty first out of forty two qualifiers. But he does,

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Speaker 4: he can hit the big play, and that's you know,

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Speaker 4: that's what Tampa Bay has to worry about here. Eighty

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Speaker 4: six point seven passer rating under pressure was still six best,

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Speaker 4: So they're not huge judges this week.

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Speaker 3: But I do like Tampa Bay here. And then the

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Speaker 3: other side of the ball.

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Speaker 4: Green Bay's number one offense and weighted offense, Tampa Bay's

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Speaker 4: number two and weighted offense.

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Speaker 3: Green Bay's defense number fourteen.

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Speaker 4: That's the weakest unit in this game outside the two

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Speaker 4: special teams, which are both bottom ten. But Green Bay's

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Speaker 4: defense is the weakest unit in this game. I do

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Speaker 4: think Green Bay did have a home field advantage last week,

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Speaker 4: so I am bumping them up a little bit in

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Speaker 4: terms of their home field advantage. If not, I would

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Speaker 4: have this game essentially about a coin flip. But I

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Speaker 4: do have Green Bay as the about two and a

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Speaker 4: half point favor here, so I still like getting on

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Speaker 4: the other side of the key number. A couple of areas,

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Speaker 4: I think Tampa Bay could equalize red zone offense or

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Speaker 4: Tampa Bay. They're number five, green Bay's number twenty eight.

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Speaker 4: These are two top five offenses in the red zone,

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Speaker 4: but Tampa Bay's defense nineteenth, green Bay twenty eighth, so

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Speaker 4: that could mean the difference between a three and a

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Speaker 4: seven at some point in favor of Tampa Bay.

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Speaker 3: You also have third and fourth down.

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Speaker 4: Tampa Bay is the number three offense and DVOA Green

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Speaker 4: Bay twenty third on defense. Both of these teams are

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Speaker 4: top three offenses, but Tampa Bay's average on defense fourteenth

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Speaker 4: on third and fourth down and DVOA Green Bay twenty third.

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Speaker 4: So again, you just have some situational spots where if

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Speaker 4: Tampa Bay is gonna get an edge potentially win this game,

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Speaker 4: even they do have some spots to some key spots

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Speaker 4: to do it. And one of the other reasons I

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Speaker 4: like Tampa Bay on offense is they do have enough

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Speaker 4: weapons to match up even if JayR Alexander shuts down

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Speaker 4: one of their perimeter guys, probably would be Antonio Brown.

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Speaker 4: Looks like he's gonna play. The knee injury not too serious.

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Speaker 4: He usually lines up on Alexander's side. Alexander has not

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Speaker 4: been shadowing, but he's allowing just He's allowing under five

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Speaker 4: yards a target, just thirty six or seventy one targets

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Speaker 4: to be complete, so barely a fifty percent completion rate,

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Speaker 4: just two touchdowns, So he's gonna take away somebody. But

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Speaker 4: Tampa Bay still has enough weapons beyond that. I think

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Speaker 4: Chris Godwin can have a big game here. So not

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Speaker 4: a huge edge here with Tampa Bay or any of

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Speaker 4: these sides are totals, but out of the four potential

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Speaker 4: sides and totals, Tampa Bay is the one that I

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Speaker 4: show the biggest edge here.

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Speaker 3: So rolling with the Bucks plus three and.

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Speaker 2: A half, I don't hate it, but I'm convinced the

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Speaker 2: Packers is gonna win this game. But I don't know

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Speaker 2: how I'm gonna attack it yet. But here's some of

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Speaker 2: the things that I've been diving into. So in the

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Speaker 2: first matchup, Rogers was awful. It was his worst game

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Speaker 2: of the season by far. Again, so if you're not

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Speaker 2: familiar with the with the Bucks defense, they run a

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Speaker 2: lot of three four, they run a lot of zone

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Speaker 2: on the back end, and they blitzed their linebackers and

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Speaker 2: they hide it very well, and the Packers simply weren't

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Speaker 2: ready for it. All. The linebacker blitzes were confusing Rogers,

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Speaker 2: and against the blitz he was six to seventeen for

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Speaker 2: sixty three yards, zero touchdowns, two interceptions, was sacked three

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Speaker 2: times for a seven point four QBR. Interesting note he

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Speaker 2: hasn't been sacked against the blitz since that game. But

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Speaker 2: one of the things that when I was back watching

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Speaker 2: it was they the Packers are thirty second in the

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Speaker 2: league in tempo in neutral situations, and they were going

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Speaker 2: really slow and Rogers had no idea what was coming

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Speaker 2: from a blitz perspective, and he couldn't figure out the

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Speaker 2: coverages on the back end. They basically zoned him for

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Speaker 2: most of the game, and he was really bad against

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Speaker 2: the zone. I think he was ten of twenty four

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Speaker 2: for ninety three yards against the zone. What I fully

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Speaker 2: expect them to do here, and they've been doing it

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Speaker 2: a lot a lot better since. First of all, their

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Speaker 2: offensive line has been better since then. Their pass protection

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Speaker 2: for the running backs has been better since then. They

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Speaker 2: also saw a similar defense last week in the Rams.

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Speaker 2: He uses an odd front and they did a tremendous job.

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Speaker 2: But I fully expect the Packers to go faster here,

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Speaker 2: mix up a lot of tempos. They're going to get

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Speaker 2: to the line quickly. They're going to use hard counts.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna use hardcouts to get free plays. They're gonna

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Speaker 2: use hard counts to see where the linebackers are coming from.

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Speaker 2: They're going to use more short passes because they drew

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Speaker 2: way too many deep passes and against the pressure that

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Speaker 2: the Bucks were bringing and they didn't know it was

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Speaker 2: coming and there was too many deep routes. I think

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Speaker 2: they're gonna use a short passing game to set up

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Speaker 2: the deep passing game, because it's really interesting the Packers

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Speaker 2: all year, I've been using the running game to set

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Speaker 2: up the passing game. They've been a top five rushing

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Speaker 2: team all year, but they're going against a Bucks team

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Speaker 2: that's been top five or top five against the running

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Speaker 2: almost every metric. And last week the backers was able

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Speaker 2: to run the ball, and credit to them because the

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Speaker 2: Rams have been stopping the run, but the Rams don't

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Speaker 2: really load the box the Bucks do, so I don't

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Speaker 2: necessarily think that the Packers are gonna be able to

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Speaker 2: get a lot on the ground against the Bucks. Vita

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Speaker 2: Veam also might play, not a huge factor for me.

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Speaker 2: He'll probably doing a snap count if he does play.

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Speaker 2: But the Bucks regardless are great against the run. But

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Speaker 2: I think it'll be up to the Packers to make

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Speaker 2: the adjustments here because I do expect the Bucks to

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Speaker 2: play a lot of zone on the back end. Last

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Speaker 2: week they played man against the Saints, which you can

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Speaker 2: do because Breeze can't throw it downfield. You know, Michael

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Speaker 2: Thomas was bagged up. They don't have the weapons and

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Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers and the passing attack that the Packers have.

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Speaker 2: I think the Bucks go back to what they've done

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Speaker 2: all year and they play a lot of zone on

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Speaker 2: the back end. They're gonna blitz and you have to

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Speaker 2: get the you have to get pressure on Rogers, and

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Speaker 2: I think the Packers are going to be the ones

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Speaker 2: to make the necessary adjustments on the other side of

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Speaker 2: the ball. So I just think it was a game

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Speaker 2: where everything went wrong with the Packers. They don't they

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Speaker 2: pretty much know what the Bucks are going to do.

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Speaker 2: I think based on what everything that I've looked into

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Speaker 2: in this game, it's and the Packers are going to

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Speaker 2: be one to make the adjustments. I don't think all

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Speaker 2: the things that the Bucks did that game are going

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Speaker 2: to be effective this game, and there's a lot of

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Speaker 2: things that I think are going to work in favor.

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Speaker 2: Look home field, the weather, Tampa's a warm weather team.

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Speaker 2: I know Brady won't really be impacted by it, but

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Speaker 2: it's worth something for what it's worth. Aaron Rodgers twenty

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Speaker 2: seven to twelve and one against the spread sixty nine

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Speaker 2: percent nice as a favor as a home favorite under

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Speaker 2: a touchdown, So it's interesting. I don't know the Bucks

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Speaker 2: could come out and go man, but I think that

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Speaker 2: they're going to stick with the zone and for what

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Speaker 2: it's worth. Aaron Rodgers. Besides that game, from an EPA perspective,

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Speaker 2: number one quarterback in the NFL against zone defenses this year,

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Speaker 2: So I think it's going to be more of a

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Speaker 2: short passing attack to set up the deep passing attack tempo.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna be more prepared for what the Bucks are

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Speaker 2: gonna bring on the other side of the ball. It's

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Speaker 2: really interesting to me what the Packers are gonna do defensively.

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Speaker 2: So the Packers last week, they generally speaking, the Packers

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Speaker 2: run a lot of Cover three and Cover four zone

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Speaker 2: heavy team, but they will play man against quarterbacks who

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Speaker 2: aren't mobile, and they did that last week. They played

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Speaker 2: a lot more man against golf, but you're playing against

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Speaker 2: the Rams receivers in golf. Are they going to do

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Speaker 2: that this week? And is Jaya Alexander gonna shadow? He's

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Speaker 2: basically stayed on the left side since he came back

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Speaker 2: from anute injury. But if you go back to Week

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Speaker 2: six when these two teams played, he did shadow. Mike

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Speaker 2: Evans held him to one catch for ten yards, but

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Speaker 2: Mike Evans was on one leg. I tend to think

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Speaker 2: that they are going to play cover for the majority

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Speaker 2: of the game. And I'll get into why the Cover

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Speaker 2: four has been their most successful defense. Brady this year

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Speaker 2: has been horrid against Cover four. And you would think

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Speaker 2: in the past, Brady, you don't zone Brady. You can't

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Speaker 2: zone Brady. You have to press men. Those old Patriots teams,

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Speaker 2: that's why you know the Ravens used to be successful

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Speaker 2: against them, and the Steelers would never be successful. But

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Speaker 2: this specific offense is not good against Cover four because

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Speaker 2: you take away their deep routes, and these two teams

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Speaker 2: throw deep more than any other team in the NFL

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Speaker 2: from on a percentage basis. And one of the ways

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Speaker 2: you beat Cover four is you check down the running backs.

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Speaker 2: And Brady doesn't really have that here. Brady doesn't you know,

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Speaker 2: he's gonna throw it to Fournette. It's not like these

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Speaker 2: Patriots teams where you can check down to the running

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Speaker 2: backs whenever there's pressure and you're facing his zone. So

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Speaker 2: I think that they're going to play a lot of

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Speaker 2: cover for I do expect Alexander to follow Evans because

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Speaker 2: if he doesn't, what the Bucks can do is just

355
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Speaker 2: put even if Brown's not healthy, they'll just put Brown

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Speaker 2: on him, take him away and say, who cares. The

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Speaker 2: Rams did this last week. They just put like a

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Speaker 2: running back or a tight end where jay r Alexander was,

359
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Speaker 2: took him out, and then they'll just say, all right,

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Speaker 2: we're gonna We're gonna attack Chandon Sullivan in the slot

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Speaker 2: and Kevin King on the outside with Godwin and Evans.

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Speaker 2: I don't think the Packers want that, So I think

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Speaker 2: Packers go heavy Cover four. It's a different defense now

364
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Speaker 2: where Sean Gary's playing out of his mind. They're getting

365
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Speaker 2: a lot more pressure that first time they played, they

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Speaker 2: only got pressure on Brady five out of twenty seven

367
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Speaker 2: passing plays. Last week, fifty percent on passing plays against

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Speaker 2: the Rams, they got pressure. So it's a defense that

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Speaker 2: I think has been trending up in the second half

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Speaker 2: of the season. And look, Brady didn't have much success

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Speaker 2: in that game. I mean, he threw for one hundred

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Speaker 2: and seventy yards, So I think a lot of Cover

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Speaker 2: four it's gonna slow down that that Bucks deep passing attack,

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Speaker 2: and I think they're gonna be able to get some

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Speaker 2: pressure on Brady from a prop perspective, By the way

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Speaker 2: AJ Dillon I would look for him. They've been trying

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Speaker 2: to set up this deep pass to him for a

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Speaker 2: while for the last couple of weeks, and he's and

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Speaker 2: they're gonna I think they're gonna use two backs a

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Speaker 2: lot more than usual. AJ Dillon catching a ball, scoring

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Speaker 2: a touchdown, and then Chris Godwin, Chris Goblin's gonna I

382
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Speaker 2: think they're gonna put Chris Goblin in the slot almost

383
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Speaker 2: the whole game. Usually I think he's like sixty percent,

384
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Speaker 2: but I think they're just gonna say we're putting him

385
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Speaker 2: in there eighty ninety percent. Chanda Salivan's been respectable. But

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Speaker 2: if I the Packers, they do play cover four, where

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Speaker 2: you can beat them a cover four is with those

388
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Speaker 2: option routes in the slot. I think Godwin is going

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Speaker 2: to be fed the ball hopefully doesn't have drop issues.

390
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Speaker 2: That's from a proper perspective, but I ultimately think that

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Speaker 2: the adjustments this time around that the Packers will make

392
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Speaker 2: at home will be enough and people forget that the

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Speaker 2: Bucks passing defense had issues in the second half of

394
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Speaker 2: the season. I mean, remember Taylor Heineke threw on them

395
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Speaker 2: last week. They went press man. They have talented corners

396
00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:43,919
Speaker 2: against the quarterback who couldn't throw it downfield is a

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Speaker 2: dream matchup. This Packers' offense has been shredding everybody. It'll

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Speaker 2: be interesting to see if they can get the play

399
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Speaker 2: action going, if they get any rushing attack going. The

400
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Speaker 2: Bucks are vulnerable against play action. Rogers twenty two touchdowns

401
00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:58,440
Speaker 2: zero interceptions led the NFL and EPA on play action.

402
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Speaker 2: So it is a fascinating chess match. Everything that I've

403
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Speaker 2: looked at on how I think these two teams are

404
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:06,440
Speaker 2: gonna play at defensively, and I could be way wrong.

405
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Speaker 2: That's my read on it. I think ultimately be a

406
00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:11,520
Speaker 2: close game. I can't fault anyone for taking you included

407
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:13,760
Speaker 2: the Bucks with the hook. I think the pack who's

408
00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 2: gonna win this game. I'm gonna find a way to

409
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Speaker 2: be involved in them with it's money line or live

410
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Speaker 2: or something. I'll get to live when we talk a

411
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Speaker 2: little bit about the total, which I think you're going

412
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Speaker 2: to go into next, you have any sorry for the ramble,

413
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Speaker 2: Do you have any anything to add there? From what

414
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Speaker 2: I said?

415
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Speaker 4: So, I think that was great points. I do think

416
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Speaker 4: that one like I do think this offense. I think

417
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:36,520
Speaker 4: people are underestimating what the Bucks can do against green Bay,

418
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Speaker 4: like offensively, because what you saw last week was you

419
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Speaker 4: saw and we'll see Ronald Jones's.

420
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Speaker 3: Health, but he did get thirteen carries.

421
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Speaker 4: The last game you started to see a two headed

422
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Speaker 4: running back monster emerged where Jones got thirteen carries four

423
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Speaker 4: Nett got seventeen, but.

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Speaker 3: Green Bay because of that cover four.

425
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Speaker 4: Style defense, they will be vulnerable underneath. I think God

426
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Speaker 4: will have a big game. But for Nets, come on

427
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:04,400
Speaker 4: with nine of ten catches on nine or ten targets

428
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Speaker 4: for seventy three yards and a touchdown in the two

429
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Speaker 4: playoff games. And I think they are kind of making

430
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Speaker 4: a conservative effort to give Brady, you know, that outlet there.

431
00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,880
Speaker 4: They're also running Cameron Brait a lot more at tight

432
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Speaker 4: end it, you know, kind of Gronkowski has been blocking.

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Speaker 3: They've been using some two tight ends sets.

434
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:24,919
Speaker 4: So I do think they'll find some ways to attack

435
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:25,320
Speaker 4: this team.

436
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:25,520
Speaker 3: And I.

437
00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:31,040
Speaker 4: Wonder if you know, I probably would shadow Evans with

438
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:34,280
Speaker 4: Jay Air, but I do wonder if especially if Brown,

439
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:36,679
Speaker 4: you know, they said it's nothing serious or he's you know,

440
00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:40,040
Speaker 4: practices and you know he's either removed from the injury reporter,

441
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:42,800
Speaker 4: it's pretty presumed that he's you know, gonna be close

442
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:44,879
Speaker 4: to full health. I wonder if you know, from a

443
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:46,880
Speaker 4: coaching perspective, they're looking at and saying, this is still

444
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,640
Speaker 4: Antonio Brown, like we're not gonna We're not Like there's

445
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 4: a lot of coaches in this league that would still

446
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:53,679
Speaker 4: look at Antonio Brown as a better receiver than Mike Evans.

447
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 4: I'm not saying Mike Petton does or doesn't, but I

448
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:58,879
Speaker 4: don't know for sure that like I wouldn't say with

449
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:02,520
Speaker 4: a high confidence that Alexander shadows just because he simply

450
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 4: hasn't done it, you know, for since the first half

451
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:06,159
Speaker 4: of the season.

452
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:08,439
Speaker 3: So I'm actually expecting him.

453
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:10,920
Speaker 4: To stay, especially if they do play cover four, because

454
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,160
Speaker 4: you're still playing zone. You know, you could you could

455
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 4: move him around and line up on the side that

456
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:17,680
Speaker 4: Evans lines up on it. That's no saying they're not

457
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:19,719
Speaker 4: going to you know, run routes to still get them

458
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:22,080
Speaker 4: off of them. So I actually expect Alexander to be

459
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:25,240
Speaker 4: a little more stationary. I do expect Fournette to be

460
00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 4: heavily involved, but also I think Tampa Bay because they

461
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:32,360
Speaker 4: have those threatening pass game weapons that will force Green Bay.

462
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 4: And what does Mike pet do, Like he plays that

463
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 4: cover four, he plays with a lot of defensive backs

464
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:40,160
Speaker 4: on the field. That's his base. That's essentially their base defense.

465
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:42,440
Speaker 4: That's why the Packers really for the last couple of

466
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:44,680
Speaker 4: years have been getting shredded in a run game. Tampa

467
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:48,240
Speaker 4: Bay has enough weapons to make you respect their past game.

468
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 4: Even if Brady you know, could struggle a little bit,

469
00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 4: maybe it's not the best coverage matchup, just their weapons

470
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 4: with Brown and Evans and God and Gronk and Bray

471
00:22:57,800 --> 00:22:59,560
Speaker 4: and four Nette now coming in the past game, like

472
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 4: you know, you're gonna respect their their outside weapons. You're

473
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 4: gonna respect their you know, their pass catchers. I think

474
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 4: you're gonna see more defensive backs in the field. Tampa

475
00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:11,840
Speaker 4: Bay did show willingness last week even against a very

476
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:13,880
Speaker 4: good Saints run defense, like like you and you called

477
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:15,959
Speaker 4: this to run the ball more, and I think that

478
00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 4: really helps. So I do think Tampa Bay again against

479
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:21,440
Speaker 4: this weakest you know, the weakest unit in the game

480
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 4: is Green Bay.

481
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 3: I think that's really where the edge comes.

482
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:25,919
Speaker 4: Like at the end of the day, we're not expecting

483
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:28,359
Speaker 4: Aaron Rodgers to get slowed down, you know, We're just

484
00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:31,680
Speaker 4: trying to have the other team play, you know, keep

485
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,359
Speaker 4: keep it to where it's a coin flip game and

486
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:35,920
Speaker 4: give him a chance to win at the end, or

487
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:37,360
Speaker 4: at least stay within.

488
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:37,680
Speaker 3: The field goal.

489
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 4: I think Tampa can do that because of their offense

490
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 4: in this one, not because of their defense. So that's

491
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:44,440
Speaker 4: kind of where I'm at. And I mean, unless we

492
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:46,920
Speaker 4: got anything to say, I'll go into the total.

493
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:49,719
Speaker 2: I try to spend all day trying to figure out

494
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,679
Speaker 2: if Alexander is going to shadow. If Antonio Brown is

495
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:55,360
Speaker 2: fully healthy and they play a lot of Cover four,

496
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,680
Speaker 2: he probably doesn't. But Brown didn't craft the stead because

497
00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:02,760
Speaker 2: King is bigger, right, So then like he probably don't

498
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:05,119
Speaker 2: really want him on Antonio.

499
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:06,719
Speaker 3: Brown and like the worst owner.

500
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:11,200
Speaker 2: But if if Antonnier Brown isn't healthy, you also either

501
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 2: don't want whoever you know him out there is just

502
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:17,160
Speaker 2: as a decoy or taking Alexander out of the game

503
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 2: for no reason. So that's it's something that I'm gonna

504
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 2: be watching. I think it's a fascinating aspect.

505
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, And that's that's why I do like Tampa Bake again.

506
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 4: I think Tampa Bay covers this game, has a chance

507
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:28,760
Speaker 4: to win this game because of their offense in this spot.

508
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:31,399
Speaker 4: Because it's foolish to say like you're gonna at this point,

509
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 4: like after watching what he did in a RAMS, you're

510
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 4: not like you're not swowing Aaron Rodgers down.

511
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 3: But you know, I'll put it this way.

512
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 4: The Packers, where they put up five hundred plus yards

513
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:43,479
Speaker 4: offense on the RAMS, they scored thirty two points. The

514
00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:46,400
Speaker 4: Bucks against a very good defense in New Orleans down Grant.

515
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:49,120
Speaker 4: They got some turnovers, but they score thirty points. They're

516
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:53,880
Speaker 4: capable of scoring with the Packers, and that's what they're

517
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:55,360
Speaker 4: gonna have to do in his game. And I think

518
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 4: that's why having the weapons helps. That's why having depth

519
00:24:57,600 --> 00:24:59,360
Speaker 4: a receiver. I mean, I think Brown is gonna be healthy.

520
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:02,919
Speaker 4: He says that series. But Tyra Johnson more talented than

521
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:05,399
Speaker 4: most number four's and Scottie Miller, whoever you want to

522
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:07,119
Speaker 4: call their number four. They like Johnson a lot, but

523
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 4: both of those guys are more talented then you're pretty

524
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:12,159
Speaker 4: much every other four or five in the league.

525
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:13,439
Speaker 3: So Tampa has options.

526
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 4: And I think it was a little bit of a

527
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 4: blessing in disguise to see Aaron Rodgers shred that Rams defense,

528
00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 4: because that is essentially the scheme that I thought Tampa

529
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 4: would play as well. So I think, now you know

530
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:26,679
Speaker 4: Tampa having success in that first matchup, but also seeing

531
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 4: what they did to the Rams, I think there will

532
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 4: be a little more of an edge or like, there

533
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:32,720
Speaker 4: won't be as much of an edge for Green Maade

534
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:34,919
Speaker 4: this time around. You know, one week to prepare instead

535
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:37,639
Speaker 4: of two. I just think this number is a little

536
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,679
Speaker 4: bit forgiving here to where I think this is a

537
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,679
Speaker 4: field goal game at least half the time, so now

538
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:46,200
Speaker 4: again not it's conference championships.

539
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 3: The markets sufficient, but do like Tampa here.

540
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 7: The NFL season is upon us and our friends at

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557
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Speaker 7: and now back to the show.

558
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 4: For the second pick of the Conference Championship Sunday six pack.

559
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 4: I'm going with Bucks Packers over fifty one and a

560
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,879
Speaker 4: half at BETMVM, the official odds provider of the podcast.

561
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 4: I make this closer to fifty and that's even with

562
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 4: the justing down a little bit.

563
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 3: For the whether there could be a little bit of

564
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:06,240
Speaker 3: fog or whatnot.

565
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:10,399
Speaker 4: But I do think that Green Bay is going to

566
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 4: be a little more a little more pass heavy in

567
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 4: this game, even if it's short passes. I don't think

568
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 4: they're going to just try to slam the ball into

569
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 4: that stonewall.

570
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:18,199
Speaker 2: You know.

571
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 4: Tampa Bay run defense, and when you have Aaron Rodgers

572
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 4: passing more, you know, I think that leads some more points.

573
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 4: And this Bucks team has shown numerous times they could

574
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,880
Speaker 4: come from behind. They have a bunch of weapons outside

575
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,679
Speaker 4: Green Bay is the defense is the weakest unit in

576
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:33,160
Speaker 4: this game.

577
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 3: So, and you mentioned it earlier.

578
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 4: Green Bay runs at the slowest tempo on offense in

579
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 4: the league, thirty second in situation at neutral pace according

580
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 4: to Football Outsiders, still win eleven and six towards the

581
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:49,399
Speaker 4: over this season. I do think green Bay speeds it

582
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:51,800
Speaker 4: up a little. I think Green Bay passes a little more.

583
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 4: We've seen Tampa Bay, a team that went is ten

584
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 4: and eight so far towards the over, but a team

585
00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 4: that we have seen come back, a team that have

586
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:03,360
Speaker 4: the weapons on the outside to come back, a team

587
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 4: that is willing to abandon the run if need be.

588
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 4: We know that, and a team that frankly has some

589
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 4: advantages situationally when you talk about you know, the red zone,

590
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 4: when you talk about third fourth downs on offense that

591
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 4: could keep drives going. That's where the Packers defense has

592
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 4: been most vulnerable in those situational spots.

593
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:24,680
Speaker 3: So I do think this game does.

594
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:28,639
Speaker 4: Favor the over barring just like a massive windstorm or

595
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:31,960
Speaker 4: something like that. I think this game favors the over

596
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:34,159
Speaker 4: from going over fifty one and they have.

597
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, these are two We're playing two outdoor games here

598
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:40,200
Speaker 2: that can have weather at times. It's something that you

599
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 2: want to monitor. We're recording this on Wednesday night. I'm

600
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 2: approaching both totals. We'll get to the next game shortly,

601
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 2: but I'm just gonna speak in generic terms. I'm approaching

602
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 2: both get totals the same way, and that's from a

603
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 2: live perspective. I want both live overs now let me ask.

604
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:00,840
Speaker 2: I'll start a trivia question. I'll start with a trivia

605
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 2: questionnaire for you in the last twenty Super Bowls. How

606
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 2: many had over ten combined points in the first quarter

607
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:12,720
Speaker 2: last twenty Super Bowls. I'm going to ch the mine

608
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 2: from over ten points seven? Uh, the answer is three.

609
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:23,880
Speaker 2: And those three were a because of a Hester touchdown

610
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 2: or turned to open the game, and they're the only

611
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 2: ones were twelve, fourteen, and twenty points. The other one

612
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 2: was the one that Rogers played in. By the way,

613
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 2: Rogers has lost his last tear NFCY championship games. Tom Brady,

614
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 2: if he wins this game would have as many NFC

615
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:40,479
Speaker 2: championship games as championship game wins. Is as Aaron Rodgers

616
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 2: is pretty crazy bucket fuck. But three? And why am

617
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 2: I bringing this up? And that Rogers game he started

618
00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 2: off with three punts and then there was an interception

619
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:53,440
Speaker 2: return to get at the fourteen points. So why am

620
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:56,360
Speaker 2: I bringing this up? Well, let's look at conference championships

621
00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 2: and Super Bowls over the past fifteen years. You gotta

622
00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 2: say size about fifty games historically over that time. In

623
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 2: all NFL games, teams average nine about nine points per

624
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 2: first quarter in the first quarter of conference championship games

625
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 2: and Super Bowls, better teams, better offenses, who, by the way,

626
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 2: average one to two more points in the second quarter,

627
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 2: third quarter, and fourth quarter than the historical averages average

628
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 2: under eight points per game, about seven point eight. There's

629
00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 2: been I think it's like fifty eight sixty percent have

630
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 2: been under nine points. So like, basically seven or fewer

631
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 2: points scored in the first quarter. Only five of the

632
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:39,840
Speaker 2: past thirty two conference championship games have got to fourteen

633
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 2: in the first quarter, So why is that? Well, and

634
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:45,480
Speaker 2: super Bowls, I mean super Bowls, the average first quarter

635
00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 2: in the past fifteen years, the average first quarter combined

636
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 2: scores seven points, just seven points, and then it goes

637
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 2: to thirteen point one. You know, it's crazy. And like

638
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 2: all the other quarters in these huge games, second quarter,

639
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 2: third quarter, fourth quarter, the points are are higher than

640
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 2: what they've been over the past years by you know,

641
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 2: most times about two or so points. So why is that? Well,

642
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 2: a lot of times also doesn't mean anything. This is

643
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:12,760
Speaker 2: a no risk strategy for me because if they come

644
00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:14,719
Speaker 2: out they score a bunch of points. There's these are

645
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,160
Speaker 2: four put in offenses. Whatever I'll be sitting out the

646
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 2: total live But a lot of times we're talking about

647
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 2: all these defensive strategies, right, what are they gonna do?

648
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:25,720
Speaker 2: What are these teams gonna do? And it's a big game,

649
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 2: so like you don't really want to make mistakes early.

650
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 2: But a lot of times these teams come out and

651
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:32,880
Speaker 2: you're kind of vanilla, right, and you're trying to see

652
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 2: what the other defense is doing, and you're trying to

653
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:38,000
Speaker 2: get a read on all, right, what are the Packers doing?

654
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:40,560
Speaker 2: Are they running cover for where they where are these

655
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 2: where is this team bringing pressure from? Are they shadowing evans?

656
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 2: Are they doing this? Right? So you and then you

657
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 2: have your kind of your playbook. Now there's also your

658
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 2: scripted plays, but you're you're kind of getting a feel

659
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 2: for what teams are doing, and then you know, you

660
00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 2: kind of everything opens up. Just that's a lot a

661
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 2: lot of times that's how these conference shape Chip and

662
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 2: Super Bowl play out. So I'm taking a shot that

663
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:06,240
Speaker 2: it's gonna be lower scoring early and I'm gonna look

664
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:08,800
Speaker 2: for a live over, especially in this game where the

665
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 2: second quarter, by the way, the Packers, If the Packers

666
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 2: get behind or the Chiefs get behind, you know, the

667
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 2: Bucks don't really run the ball. The Bills don't really

668
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 2: run the ball, Like, are these teams really gonna be

669
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 2: able to hold leads against Rogers and Mahomes. It's gonna

670
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 2: be scary, Like there's gonna be live opportunities for both

671
00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:26,920
Speaker 2: that they get down and live overs. I think both

672
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:30,480
Speaker 2: teams can answer. Second quarter. Packers are dominant best team

673
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:33,719
Speaker 2: in the NFL. Their margin was fifty points higher than

674
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 2: the next best team. I think the average over two

675
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 2: touchdowns per second quarter. And you have these two quarterbacks

676
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 2: who are great in the two minute drill, great with

677
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 2: time management, like so this this game, both games could

678
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 2: just blow up out of nowhere. So I don't necessarily

679
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 2: disagree with you, but I'm gonna get a little greedy.

680
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 2: I'm gonna hope that it starts a little slow, and uh,

681
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 2: both defenses are both offenser are trying to get a

682
00:32:57,320 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 2: read on what the other defenses are doing, and then

683
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:01,480
Speaker 2: I'm going to get it on a live over. Try

684
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 2: to get like under fifty to go over on the

685
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:06,320
Speaker 2: in the Bills game, and maybe try to get like

686
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 2: under forty eight and go over in the Packers game.

687
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 2: So that's all I'm oping it starts out. Yeah, No,

688
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 2: that's a great that's a great point. That's a great strategy.

689
00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:19,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like, you know when you look at these

690
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 4: games and you know there's a little more variance in totals,

691
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 4: but I have both of these games projected a couple

692
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 4: of points higher than the than the market. So that

693
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:32,800
Speaker 4: is promising and conference championship for whatever reason, probably because

694
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:35,520
Speaker 4: you know, you do tend to have the best you know,

695
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 4: once in a while you have a really high quality defense,

696
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 4: but tend to have the week's best offenses. Offense tends

697
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 4: to be defense more often than not, or at least

698
00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 4: dictate the game in the game script. And we've seen

699
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 4: since two thousand and two, when the NFL switched to

700
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:57,000
Speaker 4: its current format, we've seen the conference championship totals go

701
00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:00,480
Speaker 4: twenty two, twelve and two towards the over.

702
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 2: And that's with very low scoring first quarters, lower than normal,

703
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 2: and in.

704
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:08,319
Speaker 4: Our bet Labs database just looking at teams when you

705
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:11,239
Speaker 4: average twenty two in a quarter or more, when both

706
00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:14,080
Speaker 4: teams average twenty two in a quarter or more, which

707
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:18,200
Speaker 4: is every team these days, but nineteen and seven seventy

708
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 4: three percent.

709
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:22,400
Speaker 3: Toward the over with three pushes. Since two thousand and three.

710
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:25,480
Speaker 4: So this has been an over round generally, and if

711
00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:28,359
Speaker 4: you look at the quarterbacks, and even if there are

712
00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 4: you know, there's some plays made defensively. They could both

713
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:33,920
Speaker 4: score in a hurry if they have to. They both

714
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:36,719
Speaker 4: they both have enough weapons. Talking about this game, but

715
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:39,439
Speaker 4: I feel the same way about the other game as well.

716
00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:43,719
Speaker 4: So yeah, like the Brady Rogers over fifty one and

717
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 4: a half, I think we're discounting a little too much

718
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:49,440
Speaker 4: because of I was impressed with the butt. You know,

719
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:51,400
Speaker 4: the Bucks, they did what they had to do. I'm

720
00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:52,680
Speaker 4: not going to knock them for coming out with a

721
00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:55,279
Speaker 4: great game plan against New Orleans, make it, you know,

722
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 4: forcing them into it four turnovers and holding them to

723
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 4: twenty points and that game is still hit fifty. I

724
00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:04,360
Speaker 4: think that the Bucks can score thirty on the Packers.

725
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:05,840
Speaker 4: I mean they you know, they need a couple of

726
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:09,080
Speaker 4: pick sixes to do it in the in the first game.

727
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:12,759
Speaker 4: But I think that they absolutely can against this this

728
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 4: Packer defense, especially you know, with their running game coming alive.

729
00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:19,000
Speaker 4: And on the other side, you know, if Aaron, I mean,

730
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:20,520
Speaker 4: if the Bucks get up, I mean forget it. You know,

731
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 4: we're talking about a shootout here. So, uh, the over

732
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 4: fifty one.

733
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 2: And a half. Yeah, one last thing. Bucks are fourth

734
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:32,800
Speaker 2: in pace in situation neutral situations, so they play faster.

735
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:36,880
Speaker 2: And we both think that the Packers are going to

736
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 2: play faster in this game because I think they're gonna

737
00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:42,680
Speaker 2: mix up tempos, They're gonna use hard counts, and that's

738
00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 2: how they're gonna be able to read where these blitzes

739
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:47,719
Speaker 2: are coming from and what Tampa is doing. So I

740
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:50,839
Speaker 2: think that you're gonna have the Packers playing faster than

741
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:51,520
Speaker 2: they have all year.

742
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:54,640
Speaker 3: Is uh is Todd Bowles. He's interviewing somewhere this week,

743
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:56,080
Speaker 3: right Philadelphia, Philly.

744
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:59,319
Speaker 4: Yeah, if Todd Bowles can make Aaron Rodgers, if he

745
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,400
Speaker 4: can confuse that Rodgers at the line this time and

746
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 4: kind of stemy him just a little bit of the

747
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:06,560
Speaker 4: way he did in the first matchup or the way

748
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 4: they did Drew Brees, give him that coaching job. Just

749
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:12,880
Speaker 4: give him that coaching job, man, because that would be impressive.

750
00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:16,320
Speaker 4: But yeah, no, this is a fascinating game. Small edges

751
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 4: in terms of the numbers going Bucks three and a

752
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:22,760
Speaker 4: half total over fifty one and a half at bet MGM,

753
00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:25,320
Speaker 4: the official odds provider of the pod.

754
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:28,440
Speaker 5: Hope you're enjoying this great action network podcast. I want

755
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 5: to make sure you know about the Locked On podcast network.

756
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 5: Locked On as a daily podcast on your favorite team.

757
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:36,359
Speaker 2: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers, you are locked

758
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:37,800
Speaker 2: on of the Dallas marriage welckome.

759
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 3: Everybody to the Locked On Lakers podcast Let's Go.

760
00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:43,319
Speaker 5: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

761
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:45,600
Speaker 5: know your team better than anyone and give you the

762
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:48,440
Speaker 5: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

763
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 5: locked On your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked on podcast.

764
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 4: Also, before we get to the next game, we do

765
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:02,920
Speaker 4: have a short message from our producer Matt Mitchell. Shout

766
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 4: out to Matt, who's been doing a great job all

767
00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 4: year on the ones and twos.

768
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:10,840
Speaker 7: Thank you, Chris. Now, one of my favorite parts of

769
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:14,800
Speaker 7: this job is dropping in silly ass audio clips into

770
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:20,839
Speaker 7: your podcast recordings, especially coaches. Now. Mike Tomlin is one

771
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 7: of my favorite coaches because he is so easy to

772
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:28,440
Speaker 7: gamble on or against. As has been pointed out many

773
00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 7: times on this show, Mike Tomlin was hired to coach

774
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:36,120
Speaker 7: the Pittsburgh Steelers fourteen years ago today, which is about

775
00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:39,840
Speaker 7: seven hundred and forty years when adjusted for the average

776
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 7: length of a head coaching job. Now, Mike Tomlin is

777
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:47,359
Speaker 7: a fun guy and he's very outspoken. So I made

778
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 7: a number of audio drops that I was unfortunately unable

779
00:37:51,560 --> 00:37:54,799
Speaker 7: to use because the Steelers in the opposite of a

780
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 7: raw rob Mike Tomlin.

781
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:59,840
Speaker 1: Spot what a raw raw Mike Tomlins.

782
00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:04,799
Speaker 7: The Steelers fell flat on their faces against the Cleveland

783
00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 7: Browns a couple weeks ago. So I will now play

784
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 7: for you those drops because I simply don't want to

785
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:13,840
Speaker 7: wait until next season to have somebody else besides me

786
00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:14,400
Speaker 7: hear them.

787
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:16,400
Speaker 3: All right, hit that horn, babe, Let's dance.

788
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:18,800
Speaker 7: So here's this one that's.

789
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 2: The greatest of all time.

790
00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:20,319
Speaker 3: Look at your work.

791
00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 7: And this one I'm.

792
00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 8: Gonna look at you real close today is see if

793
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:26,000
Speaker 8: you highly conditioned it ready to go, you know what

794
00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:26,319
Speaker 8: I mean?

795
00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:28,240
Speaker 2: And if you know, I'm gonna put you in the news.

796
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:30,440
Speaker 7: We've got this one.

797
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:35,320
Speaker 3: I love the false enthusiasm. I'm gonna see if we

798
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:36,800
Speaker 3: can make what do you guys quit today?

799
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:38,239
Speaker 7: And we got this one.

800
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:39,920
Speaker 2: Bring y'all game today.

801
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 5: You ain't new to this no more, now, you know

802
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 5: what I mean?

803
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:44,680
Speaker 2: Dominate this football game.

804
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 7: And then finally we'll just drop this one in there.

805
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:49,640
Speaker 2: My kids want to have a good Christmas.

806
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:51,560
Speaker 7: All right, thanks a lot for listening to the show.

807
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:54,360
Speaker 7: As always, go Bills back to you, Chris.

808
00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:58,080
Speaker 4: Let's get into the second game and for the third

809
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 4: and final pick of the conference championship six pack or

810
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 4: should I say three pack, going with the Buffalo Bills

811
00:39:06,640 --> 00:39:12,040
Speaker 4: plus three against Kansas City. Listen earlier in the week

812
00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 4: we were on the live show Instant reactions. I was skeptical.

813
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:17,120
Speaker 4: I didn't think I would be betting on the Bills

814
00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:20,319
Speaker 4: in this round. And granted the number is not too

815
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 4: far off from what I have. I have about a

816
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:25,120
Speaker 4: point of value here. But the more I look into

817
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:27,960
Speaker 4: this game, and you know, all of these two games,

818
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:31,399
Speaker 4: when I'm looking at what Tampa Bay did and what

819
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:33,799
Speaker 4: they did against Green Bay and how they were successful,

820
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:36,520
Speaker 4: and then I look at Kansas City and how they

821
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:37,959
Speaker 4: were successful against.

822
00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:40,480
Speaker 3: Buffalo, I'm a lot more worried.

823
00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 4: About Kansas City replicating their success this time around. And

824
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:52,160
Speaker 4: the real the reason is there's been something to this

825
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 4: lack of covering. You know, by now, you've probably heard

826
00:39:56,840 --> 00:40:00,440
Speaker 4: the Chiefs covered once in the second half of this season.

827
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 3: Didn't cover last week.

828
00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:05,719
Speaker 4: You know a few things went wrong obviously for them

829
00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 4: down the stretch, but still a Cleveland team that I

830
00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:12,000
Speaker 4: think a peak Chiefs team, even with Mahomes going out

831
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:14,240
Speaker 4: wait in the game, should have had you know, should

832
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:17,440
Speaker 4: have still been able to blow out, shouldn't have hang around.

833
00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:19,319
Speaker 4: There's some lot of a lot of things happened in

834
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:23,239
Speaker 4: that game. But look at there's something to what's been

835
00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:24,799
Speaker 4: a on the Chiefs. And I wrote about this last

836
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:27,480
Speaker 4: week at actionnetwork dot com. It all still applies to

837
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:30,000
Speaker 4: if you want to go check it out. But the

838
00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:35,279
Speaker 4: Chiefs have been horrible in situational football. And it's not

839
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:40,319
Speaker 4: just it's situational football in the way in the most

840
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:43,480
Speaker 4: extreme ways that can cost you points. And they've been

841
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 4: getting you know, they've been getting fortunate in a lot

842
00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:48,920
Speaker 4: of spots. But this this is going to be a

843
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:51,760
Speaker 4: real challenge. So so what do I mean by situational football?

844
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:56,000
Speaker 4: Power of short yardage rushing, So third and fourth or

845
00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:59,720
Speaker 4: in one or two or any goal to go situation

846
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:00,759
Speaker 4: from the two yard lineer.

847
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:03,319
Speaker 3: In Kansas City, dead west.

848
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:05,640
Speaker 4: On offense converts just fifty one percent of the time

849
00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:10,439
Speaker 4: and dead west on defense allows seventy eight percent conversion rate.

850
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 3: You know, Buffalo.

851
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:17,600
Speaker 4: Their defense is number seven in terms of stopping short

852
00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:18,440
Speaker 4: yardage runs.

853
00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:20,960
Speaker 3: And then on the other side.

854
00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:23,280
Speaker 4: Of the ball, Buffalo's middle of the pack, but still

855
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:26,280
Speaker 4: sixty six percent on offense to Kansas City allowing seventy

856
00:41:26,280 --> 00:41:28,520
Speaker 4: eight percent, which of a cert Then you look at

857
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:32,040
Speaker 4: the red zone, and here's a crazy stat from the

858
00:41:32,080 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 4: regular season, Kansas City and their opponents had the same

859
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:41,480
Speaker 4: amount of red zone touchdowns. Why because Kansas City is

860
00:41:41,560 --> 00:41:45,200
Speaker 4: dead last on defense in red zone conversion rate allowed,

861
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:49,920
Speaker 4: they're dead last in DVOA. In the red zone, Buffalo's

862
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:52,400
Speaker 4: number nine on offense, and on the other side of

863
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:54,719
Speaker 4: the ball, Kansas City's number ten on offense, Buffalo is

864
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 4: number eleven. So we have a somewhat even we matched,

865
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:00,400
Speaker 4: at least on paper on that side the ball. In

866
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:02,360
Speaker 4: the red zone and red zone is a little tougher

867
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:05,160
Speaker 4: to predict, but DVOA does adjust for opponent and strength

868
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 4: to schedule and all that stuff, so a little more

869
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:10,480
Speaker 4: reliable here, especially this point in the season. And then

870
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:13,319
Speaker 4: you look at third and fourth downs, Kansas City on

871
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:18,360
Speaker 4: defense number nineteen, Buffalo on offense number five. On the

872
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:20,239
Speaker 4: other side of the ball, both of them are top

873
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:22,080
Speaker 4: five Kansas City is a number one offense. Buffalo is

874
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 4: the number five defense, but a lot again, a lot

875
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:27,880
Speaker 4: closer of a matchup the Browns. Even though they score

876
00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:31,080
Speaker 4: only seventeen points, they go six to thirteen on third down,

877
00:42:31,120 --> 00:42:33,399
Speaker 4: they go three and three of three on fourth down.

878
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:36,719
Speaker 4: They're nine of sixteen on third and fourth down. That's

879
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:40,400
Speaker 4: and they score on every one of their red zone trips.

880
00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:43,240
Speaker 4: So Kansas City at this point in the year didn't

881
00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:45,120
Speaker 4: show me what they needed to show me and stuck.

882
00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:48,439
Speaker 4: You mentioned the fourth down play call, but they didn't

883
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:51,040
Speaker 4: show me what I wanted to see to have confidence

884
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:52,600
Speaker 4: in them covering against anyone.

885
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:54,879
Speaker 3: Much less the team that is.

886
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:58,200
Speaker 4: Number one in way to DVOA compared to Kansas City

887
00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:02,240
Speaker 4: six way to DVOA means you wait. You're waiting the

888
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:05,040
Speaker 4: first few games of the year a little bit uh less,

889
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:08,000
Speaker 4: and you're waiting the last few a bit more heavily

890
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 4: to get a better sense of how a team is playing.

891
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:12,920
Speaker 3: At the current moment. Buffalo is the best team in

892
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:13,520
Speaker 3: the league right now.

893
00:43:13,520 --> 00:43:16,680
Speaker 4: Buffalo is a better team than Kansas City on paper,

894
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:20,960
Speaker 4: schedule adjusted all that jazz, Kansas City doesn't have that

895
00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:23,000
Speaker 4: extra week to prepare now they had, they don't have

896
00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:25,920
Speaker 4: that extra day. They're probably not going to practice with

897
00:43:26,000 --> 00:43:28,759
Speaker 4: all their key guys at one hundred percent. Don't know

898
00:43:28,840 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 4: the true extent of Patrick Mahomes's toe injury, even if

899
00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:34,480
Speaker 4: the head is fine. Criday over to where is he?

900
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:36,120
Speaker 4: Is he going to be one hundred percent? He did

901
00:43:36,120 --> 00:43:38,120
Speaker 4: practice Wednesday, but is he going to be one hundred percent?

902
00:43:38,360 --> 00:43:42,240
Speaker 4: I mean, Mitchell Schwartz, you have there's just for Breedin.

903
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:45,960
Speaker 4: I mean, everyone's banged up. All the signs are there.

904
00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:48,040
Speaker 4: Buffalo is the better team on paper. Buffalo is the

905
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:51,520
Speaker 4: better team in pretty much. I mean, you any situational

906
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:56,360
Speaker 4: factor that you want to compare these teams almost to

907
00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:58,040
Speaker 4: a t favors Buffalo.

908
00:43:58,120 --> 00:43:59,160
Speaker 3: And that's concerning and.

909
00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:02,040
Speaker 4: Where because otherwise, you know, pretty evenly matched game. Okay,

910
00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 4: Buffalo is playing better down the stretch. Kansas City has

911
00:44:04,239 --> 00:44:06,560
Speaker 4: my homes, they have red, They've been here before. They

912
00:44:06,560 --> 00:44:08,640
Speaker 4: can get down by double digits and still come back.

913
00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 4: We get all that. That's why the three point favorites.

914
00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:14,000
Speaker 4: I get it. Kansas City is not much better than

915
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:16,040
Speaker 4: fifty to fifty to win this game, much less win

916
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:19,239
Speaker 4: it by four or more. So, I you know, I

917
00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:21,840
Speaker 4: was initially skeptical because I do put Wade in and

918
00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:23,880
Speaker 4: Kansas City. You know, we talked about this earlier in

919
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:27,080
Speaker 4: the year, coming into the yearsas I thought, Kansas City

920
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:31,560
Speaker 4: is Steve spagnolo scheming excellent, figured they would, you know,

921
00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:34,759
Speaker 4: shut down Lamar Jackson just because of how they had

922
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:37,399
Speaker 4: been playing him, and figured, you know that they would

923
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 4: do the same against Allen earlier this year. And that

924
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:42,359
Speaker 4: came to fruition. But Buffalo was injured in that game.

925
00:44:42,520 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 4: You talked about it on the live show. Injured in

926
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:46,920
Speaker 4: that game. There's some COVID things going on, there were

927
00:44:46,960 --> 00:44:49,279
Speaker 4: some weather going on. There was just disruption. It was

928
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:52,800
Speaker 4: like they were playing on Tuesdays and Wednesdays and everything's.

929
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 3: Just so different. And but here's what worries me.

930
00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:57,120
Speaker 4: You have all those you have all those situational factors

931
00:44:57,480 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 4: that Kansas City is literally they're just creating huge swings

932
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:04,319
Speaker 4: even if Kansas City has its normal mahomes read advantages.

933
00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:06,480
Speaker 3: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelsey's the great, We get it.

934
00:45:06,920 --> 00:45:10,880
Speaker 4: Tyron Matthew amazed playing amazing out of his mind Kansas

935
00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:13,400
Speaker 4: City's defense, his past defense. Because this is what I

936
00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:14,680
Speaker 4: was hanging my hat on when I was like, you know,

937
00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:17,759
Speaker 4: I'm kind of skeptical of Buffalo here, speck Noel has

938
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:20,839
Speaker 4: come up big in some key moments against some tough quarterbacks.

939
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:24,680
Speaker 4: First half of the year weeks one through eight, Kansas

940
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:29,800
Speaker 4: City sixth in past defense DVOA. Second half of the

941
00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:34,560
Speaker 4: year twenty ninth. Now with Jerry Sneid, the rookie corner

942
00:45:34,560 --> 00:45:37,160
Speaker 4: did get hurt, he's back in the slot. That's allowed

943
00:45:37,200 --> 00:45:40,799
Speaker 4: Matthew Honey Badger to get a little more freedom. But

944
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 4: Honey Badger has had to kind of play, you know,

945
00:45:43,719 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 4: in in Thornhill's spot, So they haven't been able to

946
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:49,400
Speaker 4: fully take advantage of the net effect of getting Snead

947
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:51,480
Speaker 4: back because Thornhill has been struggling a lot, and so

948
00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:53,560
Speaker 4: they're taking him out some snaps, and he's not the

949
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:56,040
Speaker 4: full time deep safety anymore.

950
00:45:56,200 --> 00:45:58,360
Speaker 3: He's not the full time he's not full time safety anymore.

951
00:45:58,400 --> 00:45:58,760
Speaker 2: Period.

952
00:45:59,360 --> 00:46:02,240
Speaker 4: So last week you look at the matchup against Cleveland

953
00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:05,960
Speaker 4: and Kansas City, generally, pretty good job. Held Cleveland low

954
00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:09,319
Speaker 4: two hundreds and passing yards five point one yards per play,

955
00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:12,719
Speaker 4: so Ken pretty solid game, but talked about the situational

956
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:19,279
Speaker 4: play was subpar. But Jarvers Landry twenty yards on ten targets,

957
00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:23,440
Speaker 4: seven catches, did get a touchdown, but Tyron Matthew, you know,

958
00:46:23,600 --> 00:46:29,080
Speaker 4: was on him at times. Matthew for that game six targets,

959
00:46:29,200 --> 00:46:30,920
Speaker 4: four catches, negative five.

960
00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:32,160
Speaker 3: Yards and it pick.

961
00:46:32,360 --> 00:46:35,879
Speaker 4: I mean, he's unbelievable, right, But let's say you take

962
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:40,160
Speaker 4: Matthew deep from the you put him exclusively on Cole

963
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:42,040
Speaker 4: Beasley in the slot. You say, okay, we got to

964
00:46:42,040 --> 00:46:46,120
Speaker 4: stop Cole Beasley. He's keep their down receiver. Buffalo scored

965
00:46:46,200 --> 00:46:48,960
Speaker 4: just seventeen points when Baltimore held him down last week,

966
00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:50,840
Speaker 4: which is really ten points because Baltimore gave it the

967
00:46:50,840 --> 00:46:54,040
Speaker 4: pick six. Okay, you take out Cole Beasley completely out

968
00:46:54,040 --> 00:46:56,319
Speaker 4: of the equation, you still have to deal with John

969
00:46:56,360 --> 00:47:00,520
Speaker 4: Brown and Stefan Diggs and Gabe Davis and the cornerbacks

970
00:47:00,520 --> 00:47:03,440
Speaker 4: for Kansas City last week against the sub park Cleveland

971
00:47:03,480 --> 00:47:06,440
Speaker 4: receiving unit fifteen of eighteen for one hundred and fifty

972
00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:09,960
Speaker 4: three yards and a touchdown, where the Kansas City corners

973
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:12,960
Speaker 4: mentioned Breeland is banged up. This Buffalo defense is not

974
00:47:13,160 --> 00:47:14,719
Speaker 4: like Cleveland where they're going to play a whole bunch

975
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:16,279
Speaker 4: of two tight ends and bail you out and let

976
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:18,760
Speaker 4: you just be able to if you shut down Landry,

977
00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:21,719
Speaker 4: you win, you know against Cleveland, and you know the

978
00:47:21,760 --> 00:47:26,080
Speaker 4: tight end's got some production, but totally different offense. So

979
00:47:26,239 --> 00:47:28,000
Speaker 4: that's also why I like the over. I think this

980
00:47:28,080 --> 00:47:31,359
Speaker 4: game is going to play toward the over. But I

981
00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:35,120
Speaker 4: just don't see the normal edge. I don't see edges

982
00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:38,480
Speaker 4: with Kansas City the way you usually expect for this

983
00:47:38,520 --> 00:47:41,600
Speaker 4: Andy Reid coach team. And I was a big you know,

984
00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:45,160
Speaker 4: I always shouted, like anytime I ride up case you

985
00:47:45,160 --> 00:47:49,080
Speaker 4: see me shout out Steve Spagnole. But Thornhill struggling. The

986
00:47:49,080 --> 00:47:51,200
Speaker 4: linebackers have been banged up there. You know they're not

987
00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:54,239
Speaker 4: getting coverage anyway. They'll play more man, they'll play more

988
00:47:54,280 --> 00:47:57,959
Speaker 4: too deep shell even in zone than most teams because

989
00:47:58,000 --> 00:47:59,800
Speaker 4: they don't want to expose those corners they want to

990
00:47:59,800 --> 00:48:02,000
Speaker 4: be would leave them underneath that time.

991
00:48:01,840 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 3: And give them that that that helped beat.

992
00:48:03,600 --> 00:48:07,120
Speaker 4: But I just I just don't really see that edge

993
00:48:07,120 --> 00:48:09,319
Speaker 4: for Casey outside of and it is an edge, but

994
00:48:09,840 --> 00:48:12,239
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes is just gonna outscore you with Tyreek and

995
00:48:12,280 --> 00:48:15,120
Speaker 4: Travis and and mahomes is. We don't even knowice that is.

996
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:18,319
Speaker 4: So it's a buffalo or nothing for me. Buffalo plus

997
00:48:18,360 --> 00:48:19,759
Speaker 4: three for my third pick.

998
00:48:20,440 --> 00:48:22,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I I'm gonna be on Buffalo. I think Buffalo

999
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:24,399
Speaker 2: win is game. I think we get a Buffalo Green

1000
00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:35,080
Speaker 2: Bay super Bowl. The Bills make marijuana. But I'm convinced

1001
00:48:35,120 --> 00:48:38,839
Speaker 2: that Mahomes is gonna play. And once, once we keep

1002
00:48:38,880 --> 00:48:41,400
Speaker 2: getting good news on Mahomes, I think this line is

1003
00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:44,319
Speaker 2: gonna go up. So I'm waiting on the three and

1004
00:48:44,320 --> 00:48:47,680
Speaker 2: a half, maybe even before. I think there's also gonna

1005
00:48:47,680 --> 00:48:50,360
Speaker 2: be you know, conference the super Bowl, especially the conference championships,

1006
00:48:50,360 --> 00:48:53,600
Speaker 2: so you can have public money that can be meaningful

1007
00:48:53,600 --> 00:48:57,000
Speaker 2: because there's just a lot higher volume. So you're there's

1008
00:48:57,000 --> 00:48:58,279
Speaker 2: gonna be a lot of people, say, Andy Reid and

1009
00:48:58,320 --> 00:49:01,799
Speaker 2: Mahomes at home laying three super Bowl champions. So I'm

1010
00:49:01,840 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 2: waiting on the Bills to get three and a half. Again,

1011
00:49:04,600 --> 00:49:08,080
Speaker 2: edges are small here. I might just wait for more

1012
00:49:08,120 --> 00:49:11,480
Speaker 2: live opportunities here. I might just throwing a Packers money line,

1013
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 2: buy the Bills to plus four and a half and

1014
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:16,400
Speaker 2: throw it in a parlay. I don't know, follow the

1015
00:49:16,400 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 2: action app just for shits and then really dig in live.

1016
00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:24,400
Speaker 2: But yeah, I agree, I mean the the also special teams,

1017
00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:29,120
Speaker 2: keeping on special teams number special teams, and the Chiefs

1018
00:49:29,120 --> 00:49:31,799
Speaker 2: have especially struggled to punt and kick return coverages. So

1019
00:49:32,080 --> 00:49:33,399
Speaker 2: look out for Roberts.

1020
00:49:34,080 --> 00:49:34,400
Speaker 3: I got it.

1021
00:49:34,440 --> 00:49:36,319
Speaker 4: I got a special team's nugget four year. It will

1022
00:49:36,520 --> 00:49:39,040
Speaker 4: related to special teams. But what the buck is gonna

1023
00:49:39,040 --> 00:49:42,000
Speaker 4: miss an extra point? And I mean, besides that, this

1024
00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:46,960
Speaker 4: is the worst average starting field position for the Chiefs

1025
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:48,680
Speaker 4: and the Andy Reid Era this year.

1026
00:49:48,880 --> 00:49:50,480
Speaker 3: They've been horrible on punt returns.

1027
00:49:50,560 --> 00:49:53,359
Speaker 4: Michoel Hartman had a sixty seven yarder and his other

1028
00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:55,960
Speaker 4: for a touchdown, and the Kansas City is still one

1029
00:49:55,960 --> 00:49:57,880
Speaker 4: of the worst teams in punt returns. Even with that,

1030
00:49:57,920 --> 00:49:59,719
Speaker 4: they were one of only seven teams to return a punt,

1031
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:05,000
Speaker 4: still bottom five in part return value and Hardman's averaging

1032
00:50:05,080 --> 00:50:06,520
Speaker 4: under five yards a return on.

1033
00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:09,560
Speaker 3: All of his other returns, which is inexplicable. But yeah,

1034
00:50:09,560 --> 00:50:15,080
Speaker 3: they everything every possible edge, including special teams. Kansas City's

1035
00:50:15,080 --> 00:50:16,000
Speaker 3: given it up this year.

1036
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:19,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, and by the way, Bucker should just take the

1037
00:50:19,600 --> 00:50:21,799
Speaker 2: lay of games to kick extra points. He can't make

1038
00:50:21,840 --> 00:50:24,000
Speaker 2: thirty three yards, he can only make it as fifty plus.

1039
00:50:24,160 --> 00:50:26,480
Speaker 2: But yeah, if you go back to this game, Kansas

1040
00:50:26,520 --> 00:50:28,719
Speaker 2: City dominated the Bills when they played in Buffalo. I

1041
00:50:28,719 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 2: can't believe. I I got Buffalo plus six and I

1042
00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:32,440
Speaker 2: bet them roller this year at home and didn't get

1043
00:50:32,480 --> 00:50:36,120
Speaker 2: the cast that Why did that happen? Well, basically, the

1044
00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:38,840
Speaker 2: Bills defense is completely different. By the way, they're eighth

1045
00:50:38,920 --> 00:50:41,719
Speaker 2: and way to DVA yep, treading way up. They made

1046
00:50:41,760 --> 00:50:44,880
Speaker 2: some stematic changes at linebacker. Edmonds is healthy. Now they

1047
00:50:44,880 --> 00:50:48,040
Speaker 2: have Mulano back. Alano didn't play that game. Also, that

1048
00:50:48,080 --> 00:50:53,800
Speaker 2: game they healthy scratched to starting defensive linemen in Phillips

1049
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:57,400
Speaker 2: and Murphy, and they started to practice squad guys. So

1050
00:50:57,520 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 2: what did the Chiefs do? And then they just played

1051
00:51:00,360 --> 00:51:03,319
Speaker 2: way deep and they said the Bills usually blitze bugs.

1052
00:51:03,320 --> 00:51:05,359
Speaker 2: They only blitz homes once that entire game, I think,

1053
00:51:05,480 --> 00:51:07,640
Speaker 2: and Mahomes is number one against the blitz in every

1054
00:51:07,680 --> 00:51:10,440
Speaker 2: single possible category, So I don't necessarily think that's stupid.

1055
00:51:10,480 --> 00:51:12,640
Speaker 2: But because they had these backup defensive line and because

1056
00:51:12,760 --> 00:51:15,240
Speaker 2: Edmunds wasn't healthy, because Malana wasn't in there, the Chiefs

1057
00:51:15,280 --> 00:51:17,160
Speaker 2: literally just we're able to hand the ball off all

1058
00:51:17,239 --> 00:51:19,239
Speaker 2: day and go up and down the field, control the ball,

1059
00:51:19,400 --> 00:51:22,160
Speaker 2: control the clock. And I mean Elia ran for what

1060
00:51:22,239 --> 00:51:24,120
Speaker 2: one hundred and sixty hundred and seventy yards at a

1061
00:51:24,160 --> 00:51:25,719
Speaker 2: huge day. They were able to just hand it off

1062
00:51:25,719 --> 00:51:29,080
Speaker 2: and run up right up. Most remember that game. Yeah,

1063
00:51:29,520 --> 00:51:31,680
Speaker 2: so I don't think you're gonna get that again. I

1064
00:51:31,719 --> 00:51:34,400
Speaker 2: am curious to see. I'm less sure of what we're

1065
00:51:34,440 --> 00:51:36,960
Speaker 2: gonna get from both defense. Are the Bills going? I

1066
00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:38,839
Speaker 2: think the Bills will be a little bit more aggressive now.

1067
00:51:38,880 --> 00:51:41,480
Speaker 2: Their linebackers, defensive line will be able to hold up

1068
00:51:41,480 --> 00:51:44,799
Speaker 2: more against the run now than they wear that game.

1069
00:51:45,239 --> 00:51:47,120
Speaker 2: How much are they gonna blitz? I think they're gonna

1070
00:51:47,120 --> 00:51:50,920
Speaker 2: be more aggressive here because Mahomes isn't healthy. Throw out

1071
00:51:50,960 --> 00:51:57,759
Speaker 2: his throw out, his concussion issue. His foot is a

1072
00:51:57,760 --> 00:52:00,600
Speaker 2: real issue. He was not anywhere close to mobile once

1073
00:52:00,600 --> 00:52:02,719
Speaker 2: he heard it. It's it. And why is Mahomes so

1074
00:52:02,760 --> 00:52:05,719
Speaker 2: good against the blitz? Well number and he can move

1075
00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:08,040
Speaker 2: all around, he can run back, he can play plant,

1076
00:52:08,040 --> 00:52:10,840
Speaker 2: throw from every single angle. And also Mahomes in the

1077
00:52:10,840 --> 00:52:14,479
Speaker 2: playoff his playoff runs last year running for fifty yards

1078
00:52:14,520 --> 00:52:17,799
Speaker 2: a game. His legs are such a huge weapon and

1079
00:52:18,360 --> 00:52:21,560
Speaker 2: that might not be there. So that's another thing to

1080
00:52:21,600 --> 00:52:23,560
Speaker 2: keep in mind here. The total What gives me an

1081
00:52:24,040 --> 00:52:26,880
Speaker 2: pause here is if the Bills do do that. The

1082
00:52:26,920 --> 00:52:29,280
Speaker 2: Bills are really good at at taking away explosive passes,

1083
00:52:29,320 --> 00:52:31,320
Speaker 2: by the way second in the NFL, the chief struggle

1084
00:52:31,360 --> 00:52:34,759
Speaker 2: in that department. Another advantage for the Bills here. But

1085
00:52:34,800 --> 00:52:38,160
Speaker 2: these are two very pass heavy teams on first downs,

1086
00:52:38,200 --> 00:52:40,959
Speaker 2: early downs, two very smart teams. They kind of mirror

1087
00:52:40,960 --> 00:52:42,920
Speaker 2: each other in a lot of different ways. I think

1088
00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:45,040
Speaker 2: the Bills just have the better defense right now. They

1089
00:52:45,040 --> 00:52:48,680
Speaker 2: have less questions on offense with from a health perspective.

1090
00:52:49,200 --> 00:52:51,960
Speaker 2: But the only thing gives me pause for concern is

1091
00:52:52,520 --> 00:52:54,000
Speaker 2: the weather. I guess there could be some win, but

1092
00:52:54,040 --> 00:52:55,400
Speaker 2: that doesn't look like it's gonna be an issue. But

1093
00:52:55,600 --> 00:52:59,160
Speaker 2: do the Bills just come out here again and drop everyone.

1094
00:52:59,560 --> 00:53:01,839
Speaker 2: Then the Chiefs are just taking what they give them

1095
00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:04,200
Speaker 2: and they're going slow. The game might start like that.

1096
00:53:04,239 --> 00:53:06,920
Speaker 2: It's another reason why I'm waiting on the total. But

1097
00:53:07,000 --> 00:53:10,000
Speaker 2: once this game opens up, I think the Bills can

1098
00:53:10,000 --> 00:53:12,160
Speaker 2: hang right with the Chiefs. And if Mames is not

1099
00:53:12,280 --> 00:53:15,120
Speaker 2: anywhere close to one hundred percent, I think it's gonna

1100
00:53:15,160 --> 00:53:17,759
Speaker 2: be tougher for the Chiefs and the Bills, and I

1101
00:53:17,800 --> 00:53:20,320
Speaker 2: think the Bills are gonna find a way to pull

1102
00:53:20,600 --> 00:53:24,200
Speaker 2: this game out. This is a much different team than

1103
00:53:24,200 --> 00:53:27,480
Speaker 2: we saw the first time these two teams played. But

1104
00:53:27,560 --> 00:53:30,200
Speaker 2: I will say if you want to take if the

1105
00:53:30,280 --> 00:53:32,440
Speaker 2: Chiefs get behind, it's gonna be scary because the Bills

1106
00:53:32,440 --> 00:53:34,960
Speaker 2: can look moss is out. They don't really run the ball,

1107
00:53:35,280 --> 00:53:38,399
Speaker 2: they just know how to pass. Really, So like from

1108
00:53:38,560 --> 00:53:41,160
Speaker 2: if they get a big lead, this would this is

1109
00:53:41,160 --> 00:53:43,320
Speaker 2: for a live over or the over. Like the Chiefs

1110
00:53:43,360 --> 00:53:45,520
Speaker 2: could come at them and get right back in it,

1111
00:53:45,800 --> 00:53:47,360
Speaker 2: and then the Bills are gonna have to start throwing

1112
00:53:47,400 --> 00:53:50,360
Speaker 2: it again like early on. It could start a little slow,

1113
00:53:50,640 --> 00:53:52,879
Speaker 2: but I don't it's gonna be hard for the Bills

1114
00:53:52,880 --> 00:53:54,839
Speaker 2: to go up like ten to fourteen points and then

1115
00:53:54,880 --> 00:53:58,400
Speaker 2: just run the clock out. That's not gonna be possible.

1116
00:53:58,560 --> 00:54:02,560
Speaker 2: I don't know. They just refuse, They'll just keep passing.

1117
00:54:02,600 --> 00:54:05,640
Speaker 2: So that's another reason why I think either a live

1118
00:54:05,680 --> 00:54:07,919
Speaker 2: over that that helps the live over or the game over.

1119
00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:11,040
Speaker 2: But yeah, I think that the the Bills are going

1120
00:54:11,120 --> 00:54:13,000
Speaker 2: to find a way to win this game.

1121
00:54:13,320 --> 00:54:15,560
Speaker 4: I do want to talk about the running game number one,

1122
00:54:15,840 --> 00:54:18,200
Speaker 4: and that is why the four you know, I had

1123
00:54:18,200 --> 00:54:20,839
Speaker 4: my choice, I could you know, go yeah, you know

1124
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:23,440
Speaker 4: two of you know, three of the four sides and

1125
00:54:23,480 --> 00:54:26,840
Speaker 4: totals combined. I chose to weave out the Bills Chiefs

1126
00:54:26,880 --> 00:54:31,480
Speaker 4: over just because I do think there is you know,

1127
00:54:32,040 --> 00:54:35,040
Speaker 4: a I guess, out of all of the four, the

1128
00:54:35,120 --> 00:54:38,359
Speaker 4: most possibility where something could go wrong in this one

1129
00:54:38,600 --> 00:54:41,480
Speaker 4: in terms of uh, you could see, I mean you

1130
00:54:41,480 --> 00:54:43,719
Speaker 4: can see the chief struggle on offense. You could you

1131
00:54:43,760 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 4: could see you know, maybe one of those maybe Spegnoel

1132
00:54:46,800 --> 00:54:49,480
Speaker 4: pulls another one out, you know of his asked, you know,

1133
00:54:49,719 --> 00:54:52,319
Speaker 4: big Dermott. The game plans have been really good from

1134
00:54:52,360 --> 00:54:56,080
Speaker 4: them and Leslie Fraser. But yeah, I still do think

1135
00:54:56,120 --> 00:55:00,320
Speaker 4: that these teams are just a passing efficiency and in

1136
00:55:00,400 --> 00:55:02,720
Speaker 4: the fact that Kansas City's defense is just falling off

1137
00:55:03,280 --> 00:55:06,919
Speaker 4: a lot, I think that you're gonna get the over.

1138
00:55:07,000 --> 00:55:08,960
Speaker 4: But I do want to talk about the run game,

1139
00:55:09,000 --> 00:55:11,840
Speaker 4: and like, how do we think, Well, two things. Number one,

1140
00:55:12,920 --> 00:55:15,719
Speaker 4: how do we think both teams are gonna utilize the

1141
00:55:15,800 --> 00:55:16,200
Speaker 4: run game?

1142
00:55:16,239 --> 00:55:19,239
Speaker 3: Because I you know, we know Kansas City they play.

1143
00:55:19,360 --> 00:55:20,680
Speaker 4: They're one of the few teams in the league I

1144
00:55:20,680 --> 00:55:22,520
Speaker 4: think more than I believe it's more than any other team.

1145
00:55:22,560 --> 00:55:26,480
Speaker 4: They actually play with a too deep shell. So they'll

1146
00:55:26,480 --> 00:55:29,120
Speaker 4: play Cover two, they'll play Cover four. But you know

1147
00:55:29,280 --> 00:55:32,919
Speaker 4: every team plays cover three decent amount, but they'll play

1148
00:55:32,920 --> 00:55:33,640
Speaker 4: cover two and four.

1149
00:55:33,640 --> 00:55:34,920
Speaker 3: They'll play you know, some two man.

1150
00:55:34,960 --> 00:55:37,239
Speaker 4: They'll play some two zone, which is very rare for

1151
00:55:37,320 --> 00:55:41,040
Speaker 4: most teams, so that invites the other team to run.

1152
00:55:41,080 --> 00:55:43,040
Speaker 3: Now, Buffalo, I think I believe they ran.

1153
00:55:43,000 --> 00:55:45,799
Speaker 4: One time one handoff to Singletary in the first half

1154
00:55:45,840 --> 00:55:48,120
Speaker 4: against the Ravens, which was understandable after what they did

1155
00:55:48,160 --> 00:55:51,239
Speaker 4: with to Henry. And also the Ravens they're playing a

1156
00:55:51,280 --> 00:55:54,040
Speaker 4: completely different type of defense. They're blitzing more, they're playing

1157
00:55:54,080 --> 00:55:57,920
Speaker 4: more single high. They'll play some cover zero, which is

1158
00:55:57,960 --> 00:56:00,400
Speaker 4: no safety back, so totally defense.

1159
00:56:00,440 --> 00:56:01,759
Speaker 3: How do we think the Bills are going to use

1160
00:56:01,760 --> 00:56:04,240
Speaker 3: the run game in this one? Against the Colts?

1161
00:56:04,280 --> 00:56:09,200
Speaker 4: They did run ten handoffs on fifty eight plays. The

1162
00:56:09,320 --> 00:56:12,400
Speaker 4: running backs when you add in the targets, saw a

1163
00:56:12,400 --> 00:56:14,920
Speaker 4: look on seventeen of fifty eight. So I mean, if

1164
00:56:14,960 --> 00:56:17,480
Speaker 4: you have a sixty five plays or so, Singletary could

1165
00:56:17,480 --> 00:56:18,839
Speaker 4: approach twenty.

1166
00:56:18,560 --> 00:56:21,359
Speaker 3: Touches if they use that kind of game.

1167
00:56:21,360 --> 00:56:23,359
Speaker 4: Point and Coats do play some you know, more cover too,

1168
00:56:23,400 --> 00:56:25,360
Speaker 4: they do sit back a little more, we know, inviting

1169
00:56:25,400 --> 00:56:27,920
Speaker 4: to run as well. So some parallels and then on

1170
00:56:27,920 --> 00:56:29,880
Speaker 4: the other side of the ball, it's kind of the

1171
00:56:29,880 --> 00:56:33,359
Speaker 4: same question. You know, do if Edward's aware is back

1172
00:56:33,400 --> 00:56:37,120
Speaker 4: but he's not one hundred percent. Just do the Chiefs

1173
00:56:37,320 --> 00:56:39,120
Speaker 4: look at that first game and say, hey, you know,

1174
00:56:39,200 --> 00:56:43,399
Speaker 4: we held the Bills to sixteen points. We're struggling to

1175
00:56:43,040 --> 00:56:45,880
Speaker 4: to you know, put teams away. Mahomes is not one

1176
00:56:45,960 --> 00:56:49,560
Speaker 4: hundred percent. Do they look to that same strategy or

1177
00:56:49,560 --> 00:56:52,319
Speaker 4: do they say, no, it's the stakes are too high.

1178
00:56:52,400 --> 00:56:54,560
Speaker 4: If Mahomes is in, he's that that means he's good

1179
00:56:54,560 --> 00:56:56,360
Speaker 4: to go and we're just putting it on him to

1180
00:56:56,400 --> 00:56:57,360
Speaker 4: shoot it out.

1181
00:56:57,560 --> 00:56:59,120
Speaker 2: I don't think the Bills are going to run much

1182
00:56:59,160 --> 00:57:01,800
Speaker 2: at all. I think that's a mistake they made against

1183
00:57:01,840 --> 00:57:05,640
Speaker 2: the Chiefs in that first meeting. They threw it like

1184
00:57:05,760 --> 00:57:08,520
Speaker 2: only twenty seven. They rarely had the ball, but they

1185
00:57:08,520 --> 00:57:11,279
Speaker 2: had like a fifty to fifty run pass split. The

1186
00:57:11,320 --> 00:57:14,279
Speaker 2: weather wasn't great in that game either, But I think

1187
00:57:14,280 --> 00:57:17,280
Speaker 2: that they're they're coming out like, if the Bills come

1188
00:57:17,320 --> 00:57:20,240
Speaker 2: out and run the ball against this Chiefs defense, then

1189
00:57:20,320 --> 00:57:22,480
Speaker 2: the Chiefs are going to be happy. I think just

1190
00:57:22,520 --> 00:57:25,760
Speaker 2: from like, even though the Chiefs run defense stinks, they're

1191
00:57:26,120 --> 00:57:29,120
Speaker 2: they're been they have struggled against giving up explosive passing

1192
00:57:29,120 --> 00:57:32,320
Speaker 2: and just from like an EPA perspective NDPA to play perspective,

1193
00:57:32,400 --> 00:57:35,440
Speaker 2: like it's better if you the Chiefs would rather you

1194
00:57:35,520 --> 00:57:38,760
Speaker 2: run the ball against them then throw it. So I

1195
00:57:38,880 --> 00:57:41,120
Speaker 2: think the Bills are going to come out with a

1196
00:57:41,160 --> 00:57:44,479
Speaker 2: pass heavy attack. It might they might run a little

1197
00:57:44,520 --> 00:57:47,600
Speaker 2: bit more early as they they're trying to feel out.

1198
00:57:47,680 --> 00:57:49,880
Speaker 2: You know, you're getting you're easing Allen into the Nancy

1199
00:57:49,960 --> 00:57:52,400
Speaker 2: Championhip game on the road. You're trying to see what

1200
00:57:52,440 --> 00:57:55,880
Speaker 2: the Chiefs are doing. I think the Chiefs, generally speaking,

1201
00:57:56,520 --> 00:57:58,400
Speaker 2: they'll take what you give them. And if the Bills

1202
00:57:58,440 --> 00:58:00,920
Speaker 2: are going to give them the run, the Chiefs are

1203
00:58:00,920 --> 00:58:04,160
Speaker 2: gonna take it. So I think that from a probability perspective,

1204
00:58:04,240 --> 00:58:07,800
Speaker 2: the Chiefs against two defenses that can be vulnerable against

1205
00:58:07,800 --> 00:58:09,480
Speaker 2: the Ronaldo. The Bills run defense has been a lot

1206
00:58:09,520 --> 00:58:12,360
Speaker 2: better since that Chiefs game. And by the way, since

1207
00:58:12,360 --> 00:58:15,760
Speaker 2: that Chiefs game, Bill's average margin of victory fourteen Chiefs seven.

1208
00:58:16,200 --> 00:58:19,200
Speaker 2: That's since week six, Week seven, Week six or seven,

1209
00:58:19,760 --> 00:58:22,360
Speaker 2: So that's how much better the Bills have been. It

1210
00:58:22,400 --> 00:58:27,120
Speaker 2: it's not an easy schedule. The other wildcardier is everything

1211
00:58:27,160 --> 00:58:29,520
Speaker 2: that I look at this whole year. The Bills are

1212
00:58:29,560 --> 00:58:32,480
Speaker 2: the better team this year, and it's it's a sample

1213
00:58:32,520 --> 00:58:36,080
Speaker 2: size of a whole season plus games. It goes back

1214
00:58:36,120 --> 00:58:41,480
Speaker 2: to ken Is where the Chiefs just skateboarding and just cruising.

1215
00:58:41,880 --> 00:58:43,720
Speaker 2: So I mean, I'm just saying that is the only

1216
00:58:43,760 --> 00:58:45,040
Speaker 2: thing I don't think so either.

1217
00:58:46,160 --> 00:58:48,040
Speaker 8: Yeah, No, I just want to quick That's the only

1218
00:58:48,080 --> 00:58:50,920
Speaker 8: wildcardier I think. And it's like all my numbers are

1219
00:58:51,000 --> 00:58:53,000
Speaker 8: way deflated on the Chiefs. Yes, they came out they

1220
00:58:53,000 --> 00:58:54,760
Speaker 8: looked spectacker in the first half of this week, but

1221
00:58:54,800 --> 00:58:59,520
Speaker 8: that's against a horrendous Browns defense with a banged up

1222
00:58:59,560 --> 00:59:02,320
Speaker 8: Miles game their best player and like nothing else like

1223
00:59:02,360 --> 00:59:05,640
Speaker 8: the Chiefs no matter when they played the Browns on

1224
00:59:05,720 --> 00:59:09,000
Speaker 8: any planet, in any weather, in any situation, with the

1225
00:59:09,040 --> 00:59:10,600
Speaker 8: healthy Mahomes are going to.

1226
00:59:10,600 --> 00:59:13,120
Speaker 2: Score at will against the Browns defense. So I can't

1227
00:59:13,120 --> 00:59:15,320
Speaker 2: even take much from that first half. But that's the

1228
00:59:15,320 --> 00:59:17,720
Speaker 2: only waywcarder like we're the Chiefs just waiting to fuck

1229
00:59:17,760 --> 00:59:18,160
Speaker 2: the switch.

1230
00:59:18,800 --> 00:59:21,320
Speaker 4: I think you have to say no, and that's why

1231
00:59:21,400 --> 00:59:23,080
Speaker 4: I wanted to do kind of a deep dive on

1232
00:59:23,120 --> 00:59:25,680
Speaker 4: them heading into last week. But I would say no

1233
00:59:25,840 --> 00:59:29,080
Speaker 4: for the simple fact that all those situational numbers I

1234
00:59:29,160 --> 00:59:32,000
Speaker 4: rattled off. That's what's really going on. The Chiefs are

1235
00:59:32,000 --> 00:59:35,440
Speaker 4: playing ball. They still got their quarterback. Travis Kelsey had

1236
00:59:35,440 --> 00:59:38,560
Speaker 4: another amazing year. Tyree Kell had another amazing year. Patrick

1237
00:59:38,640 --> 00:59:43,240
Speaker 4: Mahomes had another amazing year. The running backs generally stayed healthy.

1238
00:59:43,680 --> 00:59:45,960
Speaker 4: You know, Edward Dulaire missed the game here there, but

1239
00:59:46,640 --> 00:59:49,240
Speaker 4: they did get some injuries on the line. But I mean,

1240
00:59:49,280 --> 00:59:53,400
Speaker 4: this team, they won fourteen games they were playing. They

1241
00:59:53,440 --> 00:59:58,640
Speaker 4: were just awful and situational football. And listen that situational

1242
00:59:58,640 --> 01:00:03,000
Speaker 4: football by definition ample sizes smaller. That means is it

1243
01:00:03,040 --> 01:00:05,080
Speaker 4: is Is it a lock that the Chiefs continue to

1244
01:00:05,080 --> 01:00:08,040
Speaker 4: be the worst short yarda team, or the worst defensive

1245
01:00:08,080 --> 01:00:09,840
Speaker 4: red zone team, or one of the worst third down

1246
01:00:09,880 --> 01:00:13,080
Speaker 4: teams on defense at the same to the same extent,

1247
01:00:13,120 --> 01:00:16,400
Speaker 4: it's a lock that Patrick Mahomes uh is going to

1248
01:00:16,560 --> 01:00:20,440
Speaker 4: be efficient. No, But all taken together, this has been

1249
01:00:21,000 --> 01:00:26,040
Speaker 4: an issue all season long, and that to me, has

1250
01:00:26,080 --> 01:00:28,000
Speaker 4: been the difference. I mean, these are creating huge swings

1251
01:00:28,040 --> 01:00:30,920
Speaker 4: and on top of that, just from more of a

1252
01:00:31,000 --> 01:00:33,480
Speaker 4: human perspective, I don't know about you, but I don't

1253
01:00:33,560 --> 01:00:36,080
Speaker 4: know how you play complacent football, you know what I mean?

1254
01:00:36,200 --> 01:00:38,919
Speaker 4: Like we see when they try in the Pro Bowl.

1255
01:00:39,320 --> 01:00:41,000
Speaker 4: That's not what the Chiefs were doing. You know. It's

1256
01:00:41,040 --> 01:00:44,360
Speaker 4: it's hard to be on the field gunning for fourteen

1257
01:00:44,400 --> 01:00:47,280
Speaker 4: wins and like, what are you holding back? You know,

1258
01:00:47,400 --> 01:00:49,160
Speaker 4: maybe you know, maybe you keep a play or two

1259
01:00:49,240 --> 01:00:51,800
Speaker 4: in the vest, you know, you know, in the chamber.

1260
01:00:52,320 --> 01:00:55,040
Speaker 3: From that perspective, sure, but they weren't.

1261
01:00:55,280 --> 01:00:57,919
Speaker 4: It's hard to play complacent football and say I'm gonna

1262
01:00:58,000 --> 01:01:00,680
Speaker 4: turn it on like that. Just it's just a really difficult,

1263
01:01:01,200 --> 01:01:04,920
Speaker 4: probably impossible, I would say, thing to do, especially winning

1264
01:01:04,920 --> 01:01:08,000
Speaker 4: fourteen games. So I truck it completely up to the

1265
01:01:08,040 --> 01:01:11,840
Speaker 4: situational issues. I think they're a huge concern. I do

1266
01:01:11,880 --> 01:01:13,800
Speaker 4: think the Bills are the better team. I do think

1267
01:01:14,160 --> 01:01:16,440
Speaker 4: the Chiefs, you know, after seeing the Packers last week

1268
01:01:16,440 --> 01:01:19,720
Speaker 4: in Lambeau and the Arrowhead is what about sixteen thousand

1269
01:01:19,760 --> 01:01:22,680
Speaker 4: fans if I'm not mistaken right somewhere around there yet.

1270
01:01:22,760 --> 01:01:24,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I give them a little bit of a

1271
01:01:24,600 --> 01:01:25,360
Speaker 3: home field advantage.

1272
01:01:25,640 --> 01:01:28,080
Speaker 4: I'm not gonna knock them here, but I shoot down

1273
01:01:28,080 --> 01:01:31,840
Speaker 4: that theory or that narrative of them being complacent just

1274
01:01:31,880 --> 01:01:33,919
Speaker 4: simply because I don't know how, and I especially don't

1275
01:01:33,920 --> 01:01:35,520
Speaker 4: know how you do it and still win fourteen games.

1276
01:01:35,520 --> 01:01:37,200
Speaker 4: I just think it's one of those things that the

1277
01:01:37,320 --> 01:01:39,120
Speaker 4: Chiefs are really good. You see them pull out a

1278
01:01:39,160 --> 01:01:41,080
Speaker 4: lot of close wins, which they could do again. You know,

1279
01:01:41,120 --> 01:01:44,320
Speaker 4: they could again. These markets are generally efficient, but I

1280
01:01:44,840 --> 01:01:47,960
Speaker 4: think this is closer to a coin flip game. So

1281
01:01:48,760 --> 01:01:51,120
Speaker 4: at this point, I really don't think you can bet

1282
01:01:51,160 --> 01:01:54,320
Speaker 4: on the Chiefs. But I shoot down that narrative of complacency.

1283
01:01:54,880 --> 01:01:57,400
Speaker 2: Yeah. My only rebuttal is that, like we did see

1284
01:01:57,400 --> 01:01:58,800
Speaker 2: them against the Browns in the first half, but like

1285
01:01:58,840 --> 01:02:01,160
Speaker 2: I said, the Browns defense was terrible. But against the Bucks,

1286
01:02:01,280 --> 01:02:03,000
Speaker 2: they and I was on the Bucks and got a

1287
01:02:03,040 --> 01:02:06,240
Speaker 2: lucky cover. They were blowing out the Bucks. Throw against

1288
01:02:06,240 --> 01:02:08,520
Speaker 2: the Ravens, they came out and they destroyed the Ravens.

1289
01:02:08,560 --> 01:02:12,520
Speaker 2: So there's been like these flashes of it. So, uh,

1290
01:02:12,720 --> 01:02:15,760
Speaker 2: it's a fascinating discussion. I'm trusting the numbers here. I

1291
01:02:15,800 --> 01:02:17,200
Speaker 2: want the Bills to I think the Bills are going

1292
01:02:17,240 --> 01:02:20,640
Speaker 2: to win, and I also want to live over and

1293
01:02:20,680 --> 01:02:22,600
Speaker 2: if I have the Bills and the Chiefs are down

1294
01:02:22,640 --> 01:02:25,840
Speaker 2: by like ten to fourteen, I'll take some live Chiefs too.

1295
01:02:26,080 --> 01:02:29,440
Speaker 3: I am projecting the Chiefs favored by West and a

1296
01:02:29,520 --> 01:02:35,200
Speaker 3: field goal, assuming Mahomes is so like, this is all

1297
01:02:35,280 --> 01:02:36,000
Speaker 3: with Mahome.

1298
01:02:36,040 --> 01:02:38,120
Speaker 4: This is not like, oh there's a speculation there's a

1299
01:02:38,120 --> 01:02:40,000
Speaker 4: slight chance that he may be out, which there is

1300
01:02:40,280 --> 01:02:42,760
Speaker 4: or not one hundred percent, But I'm projecting with him

1301
01:02:42,760 --> 01:02:46,160
Speaker 4: being one hundred percent, the Bills as the better team.

1302
01:02:46,600 --> 01:02:48,120
Speaker 4: So I just wanted to quify that for people, But

1303
01:02:48,160 --> 01:02:48,480
Speaker 4: go ahead.

1304
01:02:48,520 --> 01:02:52,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm two and a half with home Field. The

1305
01:02:52,400 --> 01:02:55,360
Speaker 2: Chiefs did have a buye like two weeks ago. Yeah,

1306
01:02:55,560 --> 01:02:57,760
Speaker 2: it's worth a tiny bit. There are a little bit

1307
01:02:57,760 --> 01:02:59,720
Speaker 2: of fans, so I'm at two and a half. Hit

1308
01:02:59,720 --> 01:03:02,280
Speaker 2: they all that, But then I still think I might

1309
01:03:02,280 --> 01:03:04,200
Speaker 2: be a little too high on the Chiefs, and then

1310
01:03:04,240 --> 01:03:06,680
Speaker 2: you throw in all these injury concerns. That's why I

1311
01:03:06,720 --> 01:03:09,360
Speaker 2: have no issues taking three or three and a half

1312
01:03:09,360 --> 01:03:10,680
Speaker 2: even though I only make it two and a half

1313
01:03:10,760 --> 01:03:12,280
Speaker 2: and the margins are slim. But yeah, I make it

1314
01:03:12,280 --> 01:03:14,400
Speaker 2: two and a half with assuming both teams are healthy.

1315
01:03:14,760 --> 01:03:16,600
Speaker 2: From a prop perspective, or who do you who do

1316
01:03:16,640 --> 01:03:17,760
Speaker 2: you think is gonna have a big game?

1317
01:03:18,200 --> 01:03:20,520
Speaker 3: I think that in this one, I think we are.

1318
01:03:20,800 --> 01:03:24,080
Speaker 4: You know, usually the Kansas City is a team that

1319
01:03:24,360 --> 01:03:28,440
Speaker 4: allows the second few last two years under Spegnolo, they

1320
01:03:28,480 --> 01:03:30,840
Speaker 4: were top two and fewest yards allowed to wide receivers.

1321
01:03:31,320 --> 01:03:33,600
Speaker 4: I think Buffalo spreads them out in this game, so

1322
01:03:33,720 --> 01:03:35,960
Speaker 4: I think I think you do see a lot of

1323
01:03:36,000 --> 01:03:37,880
Speaker 4: massw one Beasley. I think they do want to take

1324
01:03:37,920 --> 01:03:40,720
Speaker 4: Beezy away. I think they do want to get Matthew

1325
01:03:41,080 --> 01:03:44,080
Speaker 4: near the line of scrimmage against Josh Allen because he's

1326
01:03:44,120 --> 01:03:45,600
Speaker 4: also going to be a threat to run the ball.

1327
01:03:45,600 --> 01:03:47,760
Speaker 4: I just think they've been playing him deeper at safety

1328
01:03:47,840 --> 01:03:49,240
Speaker 4: over the second half of the year. First half of

1329
01:03:49,240 --> 01:03:52,320
Speaker 4: the year just about four snaps per game deep, and

1330
01:03:52,400 --> 01:03:54,680
Speaker 4: then the second half of the year that went up

1331
01:03:54,680 --> 01:03:59,040
Speaker 4: to twenty point three snaps per game, so five times

1332
01:03:59,040 --> 01:04:01,920
Speaker 4: as many snaps per game deep. I think that in

1333
01:04:01,920 --> 01:04:03,760
Speaker 4: this one they do bring him up to the line

1334
01:04:03,760 --> 01:04:06,480
Speaker 4: of scrimmage more. I think they do put him on Beasley.

1335
01:04:07,000 --> 01:04:09,000
Speaker 4: Uh that is going to force Thornhill to play some

1336
01:04:09,040 --> 01:04:11,520
Speaker 4: deep safety. Uh you're gonna you know, you're gonna have

1337
01:04:11,520 --> 01:04:15,840
Speaker 4: Sorenson out there. But I think the from a props perspective,

1338
01:04:15,960 --> 01:04:19,040
Speaker 4: I think Stefan Giggs is going to catch a lot

1339
01:04:19,080 --> 01:04:20,960
Speaker 4: of balls. I think receptions are the way you want

1340
01:04:21,000 --> 01:04:23,960
Speaker 4: to attack it because the Chiefs still will likely keep

1341
01:04:23,960 --> 01:04:27,400
Speaker 4: two safeties deep, but the Bills receivers are going to

1342
01:04:27,480 --> 01:04:31,560
Speaker 4: have advantages in the intermediate area I think, uh and

1343
01:04:31,280 --> 01:04:33,920
Speaker 4: and even in the short area sands for Beasley. So

1344
01:04:34,640 --> 01:04:36,720
Speaker 4: Beasley would be the guy I would if I was

1345
01:04:36,760 --> 01:04:39,560
Speaker 4: going with a under, I would go under his receiving

1346
01:04:39,640 --> 01:04:42,480
Speaker 4: yards under his receptions. But even though Casey has been

1347
01:04:42,480 --> 01:04:45,720
Speaker 4: strong against wide receivers, I would go over on Diggs

1348
01:04:45,720 --> 01:04:48,120
Speaker 4: because I think he'll get the receptions either way just

1349
01:04:48,360 --> 01:04:50,600
Speaker 4: by sheer target volume, even if the yard is not there.

1350
01:04:51,360 --> 01:04:52,919
Speaker 4: And I think you know, we saw them use John

1351
01:04:52,960 --> 01:04:55,640
Speaker 4: Brown in more of an intermediate short intermediate role against

1352
01:04:55,640 --> 01:04:58,560
Speaker 4: the Ravens, which worked out really well. After he went

1353
01:04:58,760 --> 01:05:01,880
Speaker 4: went catchless against the Colts. I think they continue that,

1354
01:05:02,680 --> 01:05:05,439
Speaker 4: so I would also go Brown over, and I would

1355
01:05:05,480 --> 01:05:07,720
Speaker 4: look at the Devin Singletary overs as well. As I

1356
01:05:07,760 --> 01:05:11,320
Speaker 4: mentioned the running back saw a target or a carry

1357
01:05:11,320 --> 01:05:14,760
Speaker 4: on seventeen to fifty eight plays for Buffalo against Indianapolis.

1358
01:05:14,800 --> 01:05:17,240
Speaker 3: I do think we were closer to that here. So

1359
01:05:17,320 --> 01:05:19,920
Speaker 3: Kansas City is number thirty winner run defense DVA.

1360
01:05:20,720 --> 01:05:22,920
Speaker 4: They're thirty two in short yardage, which you know if

1361
01:05:22,920 --> 01:05:25,800
Speaker 4: there is a goal line run or something like that,

1362
01:05:25,960 --> 01:05:28,400
Speaker 4: you know Singletary doesn't get a lot, but Moss is out,

1363
01:05:28,440 --> 01:05:29,200
Speaker 4: so he'll get them all.

1364
01:05:29,720 --> 01:05:32,360
Speaker 2: They struggled to cover backs too, Yeah and the third end.

1365
01:05:32,400 --> 01:05:33,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's about to say.

1366
01:05:33,160 --> 01:05:36,160
Speaker 4: And they're thirty one against running backs in the passing

1367
01:05:36,160 --> 01:05:37,240
Speaker 4: game in terms of dvway.

1368
01:05:37,320 --> 01:05:38,200
Speaker 3: So still.

1369
01:05:38,480 --> 01:05:40,720
Speaker 4: Singletary kind of had the perfect storm game last week

1370
01:05:40,720 --> 01:05:42,680
Speaker 4: where he wasn't used much, but he's going to play

1371
01:05:42,680 --> 01:05:45,680
Speaker 4: pretty much every snap, so he's another guy I'm looking

1372
01:05:45,720 --> 01:05:50,080
Speaker 4: for on the over. And then for the Chiefs, Travis

1373
01:05:50,120 --> 01:05:53,200
Speaker 4: Kelsey banged the over week in and week out, and

1374
01:05:53,920 --> 01:05:56,760
Speaker 4: you're probably gonna get it over from Tyreek and after

1375
01:05:56,760 --> 01:05:57,640
Speaker 4: that it's a crapshoot.

1376
01:05:57,680 --> 01:05:58,160
Speaker 3: What about you?

1377
01:05:59,080 --> 01:06:01,919
Speaker 2: Yup? I completely agree. I'm I've kind of have one

1378
01:06:02,040 --> 01:06:06,760
Speaker 2: targeting like Godwin and Bucks. Oh, I love that I'm targeting.

1379
01:06:07,080 --> 01:06:09,080
Speaker 2: I just have this. This is just more of a

1380
01:06:09,120 --> 01:06:14,720
Speaker 2: flyer on Dylan with the Packers, just him him catch it.

1381
01:06:14,720 --> 01:06:16,280
Speaker 2: He's gonna catch a big ball. So I don't know

1382
01:06:16,320 --> 01:06:18,200
Speaker 2: if I don't know if I'm gonna go from the

1383
01:06:18,200 --> 01:06:21,440
Speaker 2: score a long reception of reception yards. Just that's more

1384
01:06:21,480 --> 01:06:22,960
Speaker 2: of a gut feeling. But they've been trying to set

1385
01:06:22,960 --> 01:06:25,200
Speaker 2: them up like they've been running them with deep routes,

1386
01:06:25,240 --> 01:06:30,080
Speaker 2: and I feel like the Bucks linebackers. You if it's

1387
01:06:30,120 --> 01:06:32,360
Speaker 2: Aaron Jones, You're like, oh wow, I gotta I gotta

1388
01:06:32,400 --> 01:06:34,320
Speaker 2: watch Aaron Jones. But like Dylan's kind of like gonna

1389
01:06:34,320 --> 01:06:36,600
Speaker 2: be sneaky to get out and he can kind of

1390
01:06:36,600 --> 01:06:39,120
Speaker 2: get under the under the fold. But I'm all Singletary

1391
01:06:39,960 --> 01:06:43,760
Speaker 2: in with the Bills in the especially in the past

1392
01:06:43,800 --> 01:06:46,120
Speaker 2: game and short passes that the chiefs of just their

1393
01:06:46,400 --> 01:06:49,280
Speaker 2: linebackers are so bad in that department. I know that

1394
01:06:49,280 --> 01:06:53,400
Speaker 2: the Bills linebackers are now healthy, but I don't see

1395
01:06:53,440 --> 01:06:57,880
Speaker 2: how you don't go h Kelsey overs here. We've seen

1396
01:06:57,920 --> 01:07:00,160
Speaker 2: really good times. I mean, look at the Colts with

1397
01:07:00,200 --> 01:07:02,960
Speaker 2: their tight ends. So yeah, I don't. I don't hate

1398
01:07:03,040 --> 01:07:06,120
Speaker 2: Kelsey ever, but Singletary and Godwin were probably my two favorites.

1399
01:07:06,240 --> 01:07:08,840
Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, so are we have a little prop going?

1400
01:07:09,000 --> 01:07:11,400
Speaker 4: You know, Sean does the props on the Fantasy Flex podcast,

1401
01:07:11,400 --> 01:07:13,840
Speaker 4: which is out right now, me Shan and Matt Friedman

1402
01:07:13,880 --> 01:07:17,040
Speaker 4: breaking down the DFS slate for this week. But Shawn's

1403
01:07:17,040 --> 01:07:20,200
Speaker 4: prop this week was on Convinced Me, which you guys

1404
01:07:20,240 --> 01:07:25,120
Speaker 4: can catch live at one PM this Sunday, we'll be

1405
01:07:25,120 --> 01:07:28,400
Speaker 4: given to our top sides totals and props. But you

1406
01:07:28,400 --> 01:07:31,280
Speaker 4: know there's nine bets on convinced me. Friedman, Corner and

1407
01:07:31,280 --> 01:07:34,960
Speaker 4: I each get three. So the prop was are we

1408
01:07:35,040 --> 01:07:38,080
Speaker 4: going to hit more bets or is Chris Godwin going

1409
01:07:38,160 --> 01:07:41,320
Speaker 4: to catch more passes? So I actually went Godwin because

1410
01:07:41,360 --> 01:07:43,480
Speaker 4: I think he has the upside. Even if we went

1411
01:07:43,680 --> 01:07:46,280
Speaker 4: a perfect nine and zero, I think Godwin could catch

1412
01:07:46,280 --> 01:07:48,520
Speaker 4: ten balls in this game, just given the potential games

1413
01:07:48,760 --> 01:07:51,959
Speaker 4: and the matchup. So I'm all over Godwin as well.

1414
01:07:52,120 --> 01:07:52,560
Speaker 2: I agree.

1415
01:07:52,600 --> 01:07:55,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, And speaking of the playoffs, bet MGM has a

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01:07:55,160 --> 01:07:58,200
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1424
01:08:22,760 --> 01:08:24,479
Speaker 4: As a reminder, you must be twenty one or older

1425
01:08:24,520 --> 01:08:27,559
Speaker 4: and physically located in Colorado. Indiana, New Jersey, Nevada, or

1426
01:08:27,680 --> 01:08:30,920
Speaker 4: West Virginia. Please gamble responsibly have a gambling problem called

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1429
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1430
01:08:38,000 --> 01:08:41,160
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1431
01:08:41,200 --> 01:08:42,680
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1432
01:08:43,439 --> 01:08:43,880
Speaker 3: One more thing.

1433
01:08:43,880 --> 01:08:45,200
Speaker 4: I want to get your thoughts on Stuck before we

1434
01:08:45,200 --> 01:08:47,519
Speaker 4: get out of here, because you try to cover this

1435
01:08:47,520 --> 01:08:51,640
Speaker 4: thing from every angle. And we've talked a lot about Buffalo,

1436
01:08:51,960 --> 01:08:54,960
Speaker 4: and this kind of goes into Kelsey and dealing with

1437
01:08:55,040 --> 01:08:57,200
Speaker 4: him as well as the run game.

1438
01:08:57,200 --> 01:08:58,479
Speaker 3: If Edwards Zulaire is healthy.

1439
01:08:58,520 --> 01:09:03,040
Speaker 4: But talked a lot about Buffalo, Matt McDonald's return and

1440
01:09:03,080 --> 01:09:05,840
Speaker 4: the schematic changes, and you've been all over this just

1441
01:09:05,920 --> 01:09:08,360
Speaker 4: kind of break down a little bit, like more for

1442
01:09:08,400 --> 01:09:10,400
Speaker 4: the people that may not understand what you're talking about,

1443
01:09:10,680 --> 01:09:14,920
Speaker 4: like what Buffalo was doing different we linebacker wise and

1444
01:09:14,920 --> 01:09:16,440
Speaker 4: why it's been so successful.

1445
01:09:16,880 --> 01:09:19,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean basically they just kind of started lining

1446
01:09:19,120 --> 01:09:21,840
Speaker 2: them up differently. Now it opens them up a little

1447
01:09:21,920 --> 01:09:28,200
Speaker 2: bit to explosive runs. Basically they're getting Edmunds outside of

1448
01:09:28,240 --> 01:09:30,639
Speaker 2: the defensive end, and they're just freeing them up in space.

1449
01:09:30,960 --> 01:09:35,320
Speaker 2: They're also using aj Klein more as a blitzer, which

1450
01:09:35,680 --> 01:09:39,599
Speaker 2: is where he excels. I mean, that's his strongest suit

1451
01:09:39,680 --> 01:09:44,439
Speaker 2: by far. Is not great in coverage, He's not great

1452
01:09:44,439 --> 01:09:47,960
Speaker 2: against the run, cast rush. He's an eighty. Is tackling,

1453
01:09:48,000 --> 01:09:50,599
Speaker 2: he's a thirty seven. His rund he's a twenty nine.

1454
01:09:51,240 --> 01:09:51,760
Speaker 3: Oh my god.

1455
01:09:52,560 --> 01:09:55,160
Speaker 4: So like, if you like edited the created player, edited

1456
01:09:55,160 --> 01:09:59,400
Speaker 4: the rosters on Madden and just like completely like up

1457
01:09:59,479 --> 01:10:03,720
Speaker 4: his strength in tick down his weaknesses, That's that's ridiculous.

1458
01:10:04,320 --> 01:10:06,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, So they've been using him more as a blitzer,

1459
01:10:07,120 --> 01:10:11,519
Speaker 2: and just from an alignment perspective, it's really freed up

1460
01:10:11,520 --> 01:10:14,880
Speaker 2: their linebackers and then obviously get having Edmunds healthy, getting

1461
01:10:14,880 --> 01:10:18,080
Speaker 2: Milano back healthy. It's just done so much for this

1462
01:10:18,240 --> 01:10:21,160
Speaker 2: entire defense. On top of all of that, I mean,

1463
01:10:21,160 --> 01:10:23,040
Speaker 2: Aj clubs the defensive player of the Week in the AFC.

1464
01:10:23,080 --> 01:10:25,559
Speaker 2: One week against Seattle, he had like the game of

1465
01:10:25,600 --> 01:10:28,240
Speaker 2: his life. He was all over Russell Wilson. But they

1466
01:10:28,320 --> 01:10:32,200
Speaker 2: also have Toron Johnson, who God, I can't it makes

1467
01:10:32,240 --> 01:10:34,080
Speaker 2: me sick saying his name is a Ravens fan and

1468
01:10:34,560 --> 01:10:37,599
Speaker 2: backer because he had to pick six, but he earlier

1469
01:10:37,720 --> 01:10:41,360
Speaker 2: this year was and last year was a liability in

1470
01:10:41,400 --> 01:10:43,920
Speaker 2: the slot, Like there was no doubt about it. You

1471
01:10:43,960 --> 01:10:46,559
Speaker 2: look at this Bill's defense, you know, some of the

1472
01:10:46,600 --> 01:10:49,720
Speaker 2: main weaknesses were their run defense, but that was kind

1473
01:10:49,720 --> 01:10:54,519
Speaker 2: of a little run funnel defense. But Toron Johnson, you know,

1474
01:10:54,520 --> 01:10:56,639
Speaker 2: and then you say, like when Josh Norman is in there,

1475
01:10:57,200 --> 01:10:59,640
Speaker 2: it's pretty weak. But they don't think great safeties. The

1476
01:11:00,040 --> 01:11:02,240
Speaker 2: tsive line was inconsistent early on in the year. It's

1477
01:11:02,240 --> 01:11:05,400
Speaker 2: why they benched. You know, two of their starters against

1478
01:11:05,400 --> 01:11:08,360
Speaker 2: the Chiefs defensive line playing a lot better in the

1479
01:11:08,360 --> 01:11:11,400
Speaker 2: second half, a lot better second there. Linebackers now healthy,

1480
01:11:11,800 --> 01:11:15,160
Speaker 2: changed the alignments using kline differently. You know, you have

1481
01:11:15,200 --> 01:11:17,799
Speaker 2: Trey White a lockdown corner, you have two great safeties,

1482
01:11:17,800 --> 01:11:20,160
Speaker 2: they don't come up anything deep. You have Levi Wallace

1483
01:11:20,160 --> 01:11:22,360
Speaker 2: back healthy. And then one of the other weaknesses that's

1484
01:11:22,360 --> 01:11:25,680
Speaker 2: always been is Tarron Johnson was a liability in the

1485
01:11:25,720 --> 01:11:29,639
Speaker 2: slot since for whatever reason, and a lot of these

1486
01:11:29,760 --> 01:11:33,439
Speaker 2: changes happened after the bye week. After the bye week,

1487
01:11:33,479 --> 01:11:36,000
Speaker 2: which I think for the Bills was Week eleven. I

1488
01:11:36,000 --> 01:11:37,639
Speaker 2: think the week before then, he played really well too,

1489
01:11:37,640 --> 01:11:40,800
Speaker 2: against Arizona. But basically after the bye week, he's been

1490
01:11:41,080 --> 01:11:44,080
Speaker 2: tremendous and so they don't even have a weakness in

1491
01:11:44,120 --> 01:11:47,160
Speaker 2: the slot any longer because Tarron Johnson has been really good.

1492
01:11:47,200 --> 01:11:49,080
Speaker 2: So when you look at this Bills defense in the

1493
01:11:49,080 --> 01:11:51,799
Speaker 2: first half year, and people say last year, this Bill's

1494
01:11:51,800 --> 01:11:53,880
Speaker 2: defense was so good, it was so good, it really

1495
01:11:54,000 --> 01:11:57,880
Speaker 2: wasn't that great. It was good, but they played every

1496
01:11:57,880 --> 01:12:00,160
Speaker 2: single backup quarterback in the NFL. I mean, go look

1497
01:12:00,160 --> 01:12:02,520
Speaker 2: at their schedule was an absolute joke, just like the Patriots.

1498
01:12:02,720 --> 01:12:05,200
Speaker 2: Their schedule was a joke, and they played like third

1499
01:12:05,200 --> 01:12:08,439
Speaker 2: stringers sports stringers. So if their defense was not as

1500
01:12:08,479 --> 01:12:11,559
Speaker 2: good as the numbers indicated last year, but this year,

1501
01:12:12,000 --> 01:12:14,200
Speaker 2: since the buye, they made some change defensive, the lineman

1502
01:12:14,280 --> 01:12:17,000
Speaker 2: changes with the linebackers. Belana is healthy, Edmonds not healthy,

1503
01:12:17,120 --> 01:12:20,080
Speaker 2: defensive line playing better, and Tarron Johnson has now elevated

1504
01:12:20,120 --> 01:12:23,760
Speaker 2: his game to where he's a legit slot cornerback that

1505
01:12:23,800 --> 01:12:25,519
Speaker 2: can be trusted out there, and lee By Wallace is

1506
01:12:25,560 --> 01:12:28,280
Speaker 2: now healthy. So like the defense now is really good

1507
01:12:28,479 --> 01:12:31,719
Speaker 2: and that's why they're eighth way to DVA. It speaks

1508
01:12:31,720 --> 01:12:33,640
Speaker 2: to all those changes. So that's my ran on the

1509
01:12:33,640 --> 01:12:34,360
Speaker 2: Bills defense.

1510
01:12:34,880 --> 01:12:36,760
Speaker 4: And just to kind of close the move on that,

1511
01:12:36,800 --> 01:12:39,920
Speaker 4: I'll just give you some numbers on Matt Molano and

1512
01:12:39,920 --> 01:12:45,360
Speaker 4: how impressive he's been. Out of ninety eight qualified linebacker

1513
01:12:45,360 --> 01:12:48,679
Speaker 4: in Pro Football Focus who played at least twenty percent

1514
01:12:49,000 --> 01:12:55,200
Speaker 4: of the snaps. This includes the postseason, Matt Milano allows

1515
01:12:55,240 --> 01:12:58,320
Speaker 4: a passer rating of just eighty one point eight, that's

1516
01:12:58,400 --> 01:13:02,000
Speaker 4: tenth best out of ninety eight qualify. He allows a

1517
01:13:02,920 --> 01:13:06,760
Speaker 4: catch rate of just sixty six point seven, which is

1518
01:13:07,120 --> 01:13:11,160
Speaker 4: for a linebacker that is really good. It's actually tied

1519
01:13:11,200 --> 01:13:14,920
Speaker 4: for fourth best out of ninety eight linebackers. But not

1520
01:13:14,960 --> 01:13:17,960
Speaker 4: only that, even though AJ Klein, you know, we know,

1521
01:13:18,240 --> 01:13:19,880
Speaker 4: you know, the coverage grade isn't there.

1522
01:13:19,920 --> 01:13:21,080
Speaker 3: That's not his strong suit.

1523
01:13:21,800 --> 01:13:26,519
Speaker 4: But AJ Klein is seventeenth in catch rate allowed, and

1524
01:13:27,000 --> 01:13:29,080
Speaker 4: he's allowing just a ninety four rating.

1525
01:13:29,120 --> 01:13:31,439
Speaker 3: And anytime you're under one hundred for a linebacker.

1526
01:13:30,960 --> 01:13:33,200
Speaker 4: Because they get they give up so many high percentage passes,

1527
01:13:33,800 --> 01:13:35,960
Speaker 4: whether it's the tight ends or running backs, you're usually

1528
01:13:36,040 --> 01:13:39,160
Speaker 4: doing a good job. AJ Clin is twenty seventh of

1529
01:13:39,280 --> 01:13:40,840
Speaker 4: ninety eight qualifiers.

1530
01:13:40,280 --> 01:13:44,360
Speaker 3: And passer rating allowed. So and Buffalo linebackers do have

1531
01:13:44,400 --> 01:13:45,160
Speaker 3: to cover tight ends.

1532
01:13:45,160 --> 01:13:47,680
Speaker 4: Like we saw Milano on Mark Andrews on a few

1533
01:13:47,720 --> 01:13:52,120
Speaker 4: snaps last week and making plays. So yeah, these linebackers

1534
01:13:52,120 --> 01:13:55,960
Speaker 4: are playing just so much better. And Matt Milano, you know,

1535
01:13:56,120 --> 01:14:01,320
Speaker 4: just to speak to his versatility, seventeen pressures is tied

1536
01:14:01,360 --> 01:14:06,040
Speaker 4: for eleventh most among linebackers. This includes regular and postseason.

1537
01:14:06,320 --> 01:14:11,120
Speaker 4: Matt Mowanad's played only twelve games. This is in comparison

1538
01:14:11,160 --> 01:14:14,960
Speaker 4: to linebackers that have played a full season, and some

1539
01:14:15,120 --> 01:14:17,840
Speaker 4: even that have played as many as eighteen games. And

1540
01:14:18,000 --> 01:14:20,240
Speaker 4: so Matt Mwonad's doing it all. This defense has a

1541
01:14:20,320 --> 01:14:21,479
Speaker 4: high ceiling, I'll put it that way.

1542
01:14:21,520 --> 01:14:25,439
Speaker 2: So having these four teams left is kind of fitting

1543
01:14:25,439 --> 01:14:27,920
Speaker 2: for twenty twenty. These are teams the Bucks exception their

1544
01:14:27,920 --> 01:14:30,080
Speaker 2: dominant Rundy just because of how they play. But these

1545
01:14:30,080 --> 01:14:32,560
Speaker 2: are teams that people have questions about their run defenses.

1546
01:14:32,840 --> 01:14:35,639
Speaker 2: In the NFL, that's not that big of a deal.

1547
01:14:36,560 --> 01:14:39,320
Speaker 2: You'd rather have teams run against you. These are been

1548
01:14:39,320 --> 01:14:41,639
Speaker 2: four of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year,

1549
01:14:42,040 --> 01:14:44,600
Speaker 2: and these are four of the teams that passed the

1550
01:14:44,640 --> 01:14:47,720
Speaker 2: most on early downs, and it's it's kind of how

1551
01:14:47,720 --> 01:14:50,240
Speaker 2: you succeed in the NFL today. I also expect all

1552
01:14:50,240 --> 01:14:53,639
Speaker 2: four teams because they're going up against on the other

1553
01:14:53,680 --> 01:14:56,360
Speaker 2: side of the field good offenses and good quarterbacks. This

1554
01:14:56,439 --> 01:14:58,479
Speaker 2: will help the over One of the reasons points are

1555
01:14:58,560 --> 01:15:01,760
Speaker 2: up in twenty twenty is aggressiveness on fourth downs. I

1556
01:15:01,760 --> 01:15:04,679
Speaker 2: expect a lot of aggressiveness some fourth downs across the board,

1557
01:15:04,680 --> 01:15:08,120
Speaker 2: which doesn't always get baked into the number. If there's

1558
01:15:08,120 --> 01:15:11,320
Speaker 2: gonna be extra aggressiveness that's not then I think we

1559
01:15:11,360 --> 01:15:13,559
Speaker 2: see that. I think we see that throughout the throughout

1560
01:15:13,600 --> 01:15:14,160
Speaker 2: both games.

1561
01:15:14,439 --> 01:15:16,680
Speaker 4: You can't look at Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady or

1562
01:15:16,840 --> 01:15:19,000
Speaker 4: Mahomes or Josh Allen and say, I mean, you're just

1563
01:15:19,080 --> 01:15:22,920
Speaker 4: gonna punt it away. Like why I'm really liking Buffalo

1564
01:15:23,080 --> 01:15:25,320
Speaker 4: The more I dig into this and when you split

1565
01:15:25,479 --> 01:15:28,799
Speaker 4: it up by downs and runner pass, so first down rushing,

1566
01:15:28,880 --> 01:15:31,960
Speaker 4: first down passing, and then first down you know, run

1567
01:15:32,000 --> 01:15:37,680
Speaker 4: and pass. Buffalo is top nine in every situation, but

1568
01:15:38,800 --> 01:15:43,880
Speaker 4: first down rushing they're twenty ninth and third and fourth

1569
01:15:43,880 --> 01:15:47,759
Speaker 4: down rushing their twenty second. Kansas City's defense is twenty

1570
01:15:47,800 --> 01:15:52,160
Speaker 4: fifth against first down runs and dead last against third

1571
01:15:52,160 --> 01:15:55,120
Speaker 4: and fourth down runs. Talked about their their short yardage,

1572
01:15:55,320 --> 01:15:58,599
Speaker 4: so you could make Buffalo an average team at their

1573
01:15:58,680 --> 01:16:03,799
Speaker 4: worst POSSI you know, out there worth performing situations on offense,

1574
01:16:03,960 --> 01:16:05,720
Speaker 4: and you're going to see a lot of I think

1575
01:16:05,760 --> 01:16:07,080
Speaker 4: you can see a lot of points in this game.

1576
01:16:07,120 --> 01:16:10,000
Speaker 4: And that also is why I think Buffalo hasn't d

1577
01:16:10,160 --> 01:16:12,760
Speaker 4: So I'm with you. I think Buffalo, you know, gut feel,

1578
01:16:12,840 --> 01:16:15,320
Speaker 4: they end up actually winning this game, even though I

1579
01:16:15,320 --> 01:16:16,040
Speaker 4: have the Chiefs, is.

1580
01:16:15,960 --> 01:16:17,800
Speaker 3: A very short favorite.

1581
01:16:18,160 --> 01:16:21,400
Speaker 4: And that brings us to this week's coaches pep talk.

1582
01:16:21,560 --> 01:16:25,799
Speaker 4: It comes to us from Robin Williams in the nineteen

1583
01:16:25,960 --> 01:16:30,080
Speaker 4: eighty nine film Dead Poet Society, and we're dedicating it too,

1584
01:16:31,000 --> 01:16:31,679
Speaker 4: Josh Allen.

1585
01:16:32,360 --> 01:16:35,800
Speaker 6: The Latin term for that sentiment is carpai diem. Who

1586
01:16:35,800 --> 01:16:36,719
Speaker 6: knows what that means?

1587
01:16:37,080 --> 01:16:41,080
Speaker 9: Carpe diem that sees the day, seize the day because

1588
01:16:41,080 --> 01:16:43,920
Speaker 9: we are food for worms, lads, because believe it or not,

1589
01:16:44,320 --> 01:16:46,160
Speaker 9: each and every one of us in this room is

1590
01:16:46,160 --> 01:16:49,719
Speaker 9: one day going to stop breathing, turn cold, and die.

1591
01:16:50,000 --> 01:16:51,240
Speaker 9: I'd like you to step forward.

1592
01:16:51,080 --> 01:16:53,759
Speaker 2: Over here, cruise some of the faces from the past.

1593
01:16:53,920 --> 01:16:56,120
Speaker 6: I don't think you've really looked at them. They're not

1594
01:16:56,120 --> 01:16:58,960
Speaker 6: that different from you, are They full of hormones just

1595
01:16:59,040 --> 01:17:02,680
Speaker 6: like you, and just like you feel the world is

1596
01:17:02,720 --> 01:17:06,400
Speaker 6: their oyster. They believe they're destined for great things, just

1597
01:17:06,439 --> 01:17:08,240
Speaker 6: like many of you. Their eyes are full of hope

1598
01:17:08,320 --> 01:17:12,360
Speaker 6: because you see, gentlemen, these boys are now fertilizing daffodils.

1599
01:17:12,680 --> 01:17:15,080
Speaker 6: If you listen real close, you can hear them whisper

1600
01:17:15,120 --> 01:17:15,800
Speaker 6: their legacy to you.

1601
01:17:17,560 --> 01:17:19,759
Speaker 2: She's not ms.

1602
01:17:21,560 --> 01:17:23,840
Speaker 6: Make your loves extraw.

1603
01:17:25,880 --> 01:17:30,560
Speaker 4: Josh Allen finds himself squarely in the Super Bowl Conversation

1604
01:17:30,920 --> 01:17:36,040
Speaker 4: with three all time great quarterbacks. So on this week's

1605
01:17:36,040 --> 01:17:40,200
Speaker 4: Pep Talk, and got one more one more bonus question

1606
01:17:40,240 --> 01:17:42,760
Speaker 4: for you stuck since this is a betting podcast, The

1607
01:17:42,880 --> 01:17:45,639
Speaker 4: odds for Deshaun Watson and his next team are out

1608
01:17:46,000 --> 01:17:49,040
Speaker 4: Texans are even money. You have the Patriots at ten

1609
01:17:49,080 --> 01:17:52,160
Speaker 4: to one. You have a couple of the Asse East

1610
01:17:52,160 --> 01:17:56,280
Speaker 4: teams with better than ten to one odds. Any thoughts

1611
01:17:56,360 --> 01:17:59,080
Speaker 4: on where Watson may end up in twenty twenty one.

1612
01:17:59,640 --> 01:18:02,320
Speaker 2: No, But if you think that he's gonna end up

1613
01:18:02,800 --> 01:18:05,439
Speaker 2: the Jets, take a shot on the Jets like one

1614
01:18:05,520 --> 01:18:08,599
Speaker 2: hundred to one to win the Super Bowl. Just just cout,

1615
01:18:08,760 --> 01:18:11,640
Speaker 2: just counts change. I mean, the tough thing is there

1616
01:18:11,640 --> 01:18:15,400
Speaker 2: in a tough division. But if he somehow ends up

1617
01:18:15,400 --> 01:18:19,920
Speaker 2: in Miami, Oh boy, look out. So if you have

1618
01:18:20,000 --> 01:18:23,760
Speaker 2: a gut feel on Watson and you're really strong about it,

1619
01:18:23,840 --> 01:18:25,759
Speaker 2: this would be like the only time I would recommend

1620
01:18:25,880 --> 01:18:28,400
Speaker 2: tying up money for the Super Bowl future. You should

1621
01:18:28,400 --> 01:18:30,719
Speaker 2: not lock up money for a whole year on something

1622
01:18:30,800 --> 01:18:33,800
Speaker 2: like this. But I think Miami is gonna make a

1623
01:18:33,800 --> 01:18:37,200
Speaker 2: big push for him, and if they're smart, I don't know.

1624
01:18:37,280 --> 01:18:40,439
Speaker 2: I haven't look to I was high on. I haven't

1625
01:18:40,479 --> 01:18:44,360
Speaker 2: seen enough from him yet and usually see something early on.

1626
01:18:45,000 --> 01:18:46,720
Speaker 2: I think the Jets should do everything they can to

1627
01:18:46,720 --> 01:18:50,120
Speaker 2: get him, but I haven't really dug into it. I

1628
01:18:50,200 --> 01:18:53,360
Speaker 2: actually think that the Ravens should get him, but they

1629
01:18:53,360 --> 01:18:55,760
Speaker 2: don't have an offense built for him. But Lamar Jackson

1630
01:18:55,960 --> 01:18:59,559
Speaker 2: has one more year left on his contract after next year.

1631
01:18:59,600 --> 01:19:02,000
Speaker 2: The Ravens in really tough spot, Like they they got,

1632
01:19:02,040 --> 01:19:04,800
Speaker 2: They're gonna to resign a bunch of players and it's

1633
01:19:04,800 --> 01:19:07,519
Speaker 2: gonna be a tough spot, and Lamar Jackson he's gonna

1634
01:19:07,600 --> 01:19:09,680
Speaker 2: demand a lot of money from somebody. I don't know

1635
01:19:09,720 --> 01:19:12,360
Speaker 2: if the Ravens will necessarily resign him or they should.

1636
01:19:12,920 --> 01:19:16,160
Speaker 2: It's one of those guys where unless he shows like

1637
01:19:16,200 --> 01:19:19,479
Speaker 2: a Josh Allen increase in accuracy. He's not gonna have

1638
01:19:19,479 --> 01:19:22,519
Speaker 2: a shelf life forever. Like his biggest strength is his

1639
01:19:22,560 --> 01:19:25,479
Speaker 2: speed is running like his he never gets hit hard

1640
01:19:25,479 --> 01:19:27,320
Speaker 2: and like for some reason, he's never gonna get hurt.

1641
01:19:27,320 --> 01:19:30,200
Speaker 2: But someone's gonna open up their wallet for him. So

1642
01:19:30,439 --> 01:19:31,800
Speaker 2: I was talking with a friend the other day. I

1643
01:19:31,840 --> 01:19:34,519
Speaker 2: was like, what if the Ravens went and got Deshaun

1644
01:19:34,520 --> 01:19:39,160
Speaker 2: Watson for next year, got him a receiver and they

1645
01:19:39,160 --> 01:19:41,559
Speaker 2: are they have a Super Bowl Calbury defense already, get

1646
01:19:41,640 --> 01:19:44,320
Speaker 2: Ronnie Stanley back too. So I don't know, it was

1647
01:19:44,360 --> 01:19:46,120
Speaker 2: just an interesting thought. Now they they won't. I mean,

1648
01:19:46,120 --> 01:19:48,400
Speaker 2: they'd have to trade Lamar Jackson. They're not gonna have

1649
01:19:48,479 --> 01:19:50,880
Speaker 2: Jackson and Deshaun Watson next year, but they basically have

1650
01:19:50,960 --> 01:19:55,280
Speaker 2: Jackson one more year. That's just being in a friend

1651
01:19:55,320 --> 01:19:57,599
Speaker 2: talking to his Ravens fans don't take that as anything serious.

1652
01:19:57,600 --> 01:20:01,400
Speaker 4: But I think that, you know, given that they hired

1653
01:20:01,479 --> 01:20:03,400
Speaker 4: they kind of went and through a curve boll and

1654
01:20:03,479 --> 01:20:09,320
Speaker 4: hired Cesario. They're obviously enamored with that, you know, patriot culture,

1655
01:20:09,360 --> 01:20:12,280
Speaker 4: and I think that you look at where, you know,

1656
01:20:12,320 --> 01:20:15,200
Speaker 4: he's been with New England for twenty years. In some

1657
01:20:15,360 --> 01:20:18,880
Speaker 4: way shape or form. I think he's gonna negotiate and

1658
01:20:18,880 --> 01:20:21,599
Speaker 4: and because this is a very touchy situation, uh so

1659
01:20:21,600 --> 01:20:23,800
Speaker 4: you're gonna probably need some trust there. So I would

1660
01:20:23,800 --> 01:20:25,519
Speaker 4: look out for the teams that he has some ties to.

1661
01:20:25,720 --> 01:20:28,960
Speaker 4: So the Patriots, you know, will they really be able

1662
01:20:29,000 --> 01:20:30,280
Speaker 4: to ever be willing to break them?

1663
01:20:30,320 --> 01:20:33,000
Speaker 3: They haven't. They have cap space, but will they.

1664
01:20:32,840 --> 01:20:35,519
Speaker 4: Ever be willing to part with, you know, their collection

1665
01:20:35,600 --> 01:20:37,800
Speaker 4: of picks because they'd have to give up a lot.

1666
01:20:38,520 --> 01:20:40,280
Speaker 4: We'll see, But I think they're in play. I think

1667
01:20:40,320 --> 01:20:42,680
Speaker 4: the Dolphins are, as you said, in play. I think

1668
01:20:42,720 --> 01:20:44,400
Speaker 4: they could eat I think it's not out of the

1669
01:20:44,520 --> 01:20:46,599
Speaker 4: question for them to include to it in that deal.

1670
01:20:46,960 --> 01:20:49,400
Speaker 4: But the Dolphins have draft capital, they have cap space.

1671
01:20:49,840 --> 01:20:51,479
Speaker 4: I think believe their top five in cap space. They

1672
01:20:51,479 --> 01:20:53,479
Speaker 4: have the Texans, you know, the high Texans pick. They

1673
01:20:53,479 --> 01:20:56,680
Speaker 4: have their pick, so so they're and then and then

1674
01:20:56,680 --> 01:20:58,800
Speaker 4: a sleeper I mean, and then obviously the Jets just

1675
01:20:58,800 --> 01:21:01,479
Speaker 4: because they have draft capital. But maybe a kind of

1676
01:21:01,479 --> 01:21:04,160
Speaker 4: a dark horse sleeper could be the forty nine ers.

1677
01:21:04,200 --> 01:21:05,679
Speaker 3: I don't. I don't know if they have enough.

1678
01:21:05,880 --> 01:21:08,200
Speaker 4: Even if they released Jimmy g there're still not in

1679
01:21:08,280 --> 01:21:11,320
Speaker 4: good cap you know, not in a good spot capwise,

1680
01:21:11,360 --> 01:21:14,519
Speaker 4: but you know, Shanahan had a relationship with Belichick, just

1681
01:21:14,720 --> 01:21:17,360
Speaker 4: that does that carry over maybe, But I do think

1682
01:21:17,439 --> 01:21:19,680
Speaker 4: it's gonna be one of those kind of teams with

1683
01:21:19,760 --> 01:21:22,400
Speaker 4: a connection to to to New England, just because you're

1684
01:21:22,400 --> 01:21:24,160
Speaker 4: gonna need some kind of trust and you're gonna need

1685
01:21:24,200 --> 01:21:27,400
Speaker 4: to feel like you're not getting completely fleeced on both

1686
01:21:27,439 --> 01:21:28,240
Speaker 4: sides to do this deal.

1687
01:21:28,320 --> 01:21:31,000
Speaker 3: So that that's that's kind of how I'm looking at it.

1688
01:21:31,080 --> 01:21:35,200
Speaker 4: But I'd say I like the Patriots at ten to one, honestly,

1689
01:21:35,320 --> 01:21:37,439
Speaker 4: just from a value standpoint, if we're looking at straight

1690
01:21:37,520 --> 01:21:40,559
Speaker 4: up Watson odds Super Bowl ods, I don't I don't

1691
01:21:40,600 --> 01:21:42,200
Speaker 4: think I could bet the Jets even if they did

1692
01:21:42,240 --> 01:21:44,760
Speaker 4: get them, So that that's kind of how I feel

1693
01:21:44,760 --> 01:21:45,200
Speaker 4: about that.

1694
01:21:46,200 --> 01:21:48,519
Speaker 3: But that was good. This was a good one. I

1695
01:21:48,560 --> 01:21:50,839
Speaker 3: hope you guys enjoyed it. Hope you guys have enjoyed

1696
01:21:50,880 --> 01:21:51,960
Speaker 3: the whole season.

1697
01:21:52,040 --> 01:21:54,519
Speaker 4: We try to break down these games give you are

1698
01:21:54,720 --> 01:21:56,719
Speaker 4: not just the picks, but kind of the thought process

1699
01:21:56,760 --> 01:21:59,200
Speaker 4: behind it. So if you disagree, you can at the

1700
01:21:59,200 --> 01:22:01,280
Speaker 4: other side you still get money.

1701
01:22:01,280 --> 01:22:03,880
Speaker 3: So hopefully it's been working out for you guys. Thanks

1702
01:22:03,880 --> 01:22:05,840
Speaker 3: for listening. We'll be back super Bowl week.

1703
01:22:05,880 --> 01:22:08,760
Speaker 4: We'll obviously have a great pod for you guys, touch

1704
01:22:08,800 --> 01:22:10,880
Speaker 4: on all things super Bowl. It's not just going to

1705
01:22:10,960 --> 01:22:13,519
Speaker 4: be decided and totally. We know there's countless things to

1706
01:22:13,560 --> 01:22:16,240
Speaker 4: bet during the Super Bowl, so stay tuned for that.

1707
01:22:16,360 --> 01:22:20,320
Speaker 4: You can find Stucky's picks on the Action Network app

1708
01:22:20,360 --> 01:22:22,240
Speaker 4: at Stucky two is his handle.

1709
01:22:22,320 --> 01:22:23,400
Speaker 3: Just go to the follow feature.

1710
01:22:23,439 --> 01:22:26,519
Speaker 4: Type in Stucky and the number two and you will

1711
01:22:26,520 --> 01:22:30,360
Speaker 4: find him. Type in Chris Raybond my name, you'll find

1712
01:22:30,400 --> 01:22:32,120
Speaker 4: me and my picks, and you can find us on

1713
01:22:32,160 --> 01:22:35,240
Speaker 4: Twitter at those same handles.

1714
01:22:35,640 --> 01:22:38,280
Speaker 3: Good luck Championship weekend.

1715
01:22:38,479 --> 01:22:40,639
Speaker 2: Let's get his money bill.

1716
01:22:56,880 --> 01:22:57,960
Speaker 6: We're finished talking